WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:02.720 Well, you got a drink more than it's uh, you know, 2 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:04.080 it's the middle of the day. You can do that. 3 00:00:04.639 --> 00:00:09.759 Ask not what your country can do for you, Ask 4 00:00:09.880 --> 00:00:11.720 what you can do for your country. 5 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:16.280 Mister grbachaw tear down this wall. 6 00:00:17.440 --> 00:00:20.039 It's the Ricochet Podcast with Chernald C. W. Cook and 7 00:00:20.120 --> 00:00:22.719 Stephen Hayward, James Lylyx and today we Doctor Charles and 8 00:00:22.760 --> 00:00:27.199 Macawee about Pennsylvania politics and tedby Troy about money and power. 9 00:00:27.280 --> 00:00:28.760 So let's episodes a podcast. 10 00:00:28.920 --> 00:00:31.199 Yeah, I just think people should put this in perspective. 11 00:00:31.239 --> 00:00:35.159 They try to take different things that happen with tropical 12 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:36.640 weather and act like it's something. 13 00:00:36.880 --> 00:00:38.520 There's nothing new under the sun. 14 00:00:39.079 --> 00:00:42.799 Assertions have been made that property is being confiscated. That's 15 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:46.840 simply not true. They're saying people impacted by these terms 16 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:49.880 were received seven hundred and fifty dollars in cash and 17 00:00:49.960 --> 00:00:52.039 no more. That's simply you're not true. 18 00:00:54.520 --> 00:00:57.359 Welcome everybody. This is the Ricochet Podcast number seven hundred 19 00:00:57.399 --> 00:01:02.000 and twelve. I'm James Lylyx here in y Appolis, Minnesota. Beautiful, 20 00:01:02.079 --> 00:01:06.159 absolutely beautiful autumn day and not very many Halloween decorations 21 00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:08.680 up yet, which is great because it grows and detestable 22 00:01:08.680 --> 00:01:12.640 and disgusting, the more lurid they get. Whatever whatever happened to, 23 00:01:12.680 --> 00:01:14.599 just put a little pump out on your front step. 24 00:01:14.599 --> 00:01:16.760 I'd like that. That one joined by Charles C. W. 25 00:01:16.959 --> 00:01:20.840 Cook and Stephen Hayward Today, gentlemen, how are you good? 26 00:01:21.079 --> 00:01:21.359 Good? 27 00:01:24.000 --> 00:01:24.920 I am great, James. 28 00:01:24.959 --> 00:01:27.879 And the weather is probably better there than in coastal California, 29 00:01:27.920 --> 00:01:28.560 believe it or not. 30 00:01:29.280 --> 00:01:33.079 Yes, well, we've had no rain unlike parts of the South, 31 00:01:33.239 --> 00:01:36.560 and what we see in the news is horrific, horrific, 32 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:40.840 horrific devastation. However, Governor DeSantis came out the other day 33 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:44.280 when the reporter asked him about the meteorological conditions and 34 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:47.239 whether or not they were pertaining to global warming. I mean, 35 00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:50.480 we all know that there are more hurricanes now because 36 00:01:50.519 --> 00:01:53.040 somebody in North Dakota refuses to switch to an EV 37 00:01:54.120 --> 00:01:57.519 and he very deftly sort of cited the statistics in 38 00:01:57.560 --> 00:01:59.840 what they had done to plan for it. Charles, you 39 00:01:59.879 --> 00:02:02.439 are in Florida, and I know you're not affected by this, 40 00:02:02.519 --> 00:02:06.159 at least as far as I know. But is there 41 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:09.039 just a general sense in Florida that this is in 42 00:02:09.319 --> 00:02:14.159 hand bad as it has been? Should the nation be 43 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:16.520 fretting over this, or should be worrying more about what 44 00:02:16.639 --> 00:02:19.639 doesn't seem to be done in the places affected by Helene. 45 00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:23.919 You should be more worried about Helene. I think Florida 46 00:02:24.080 --> 00:02:28.000 is a well oiled machine when it comes to hurricanes. 47 00:02:28.039 --> 00:02:31.800 It was a well oiled machine before Ron DeSantis ran 48 00:02:31.919 --> 00:02:35.400 for governor, but he has managed to make it even 49 00:02:35.479 --> 00:02:40.280 more well oiled and even more machine like by pre 50 00:02:40.360 --> 00:02:44.800 staging linemen. So Florida was always very good at dealing 51 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:47.159 with hurricanes. Now it's really good at dealing with hurricanes 52 00:02:47.199 --> 00:02:52.759 and getting the power back on. So I think the 53 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:56.840 challenges in places that are not used to this sort 54 00:02:56.879 --> 00:02:59.639 of thing in the way Floridians unfortunately are well. 55 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:01.280 Steve, let me ask you. Let me ask you this. 56 00:03:01.360 --> 00:03:04.280 I mean, the idea of prepositioning of supplies, equipment, linemen, 57 00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:06.080 and the rest of it seems like a no brainer. 58 00:03:06.120 --> 00:03:09.120 It seems like a core competency for any sort of 59 00:03:09.120 --> 00:03:13.199 government agency and in anything that they do. We used 60 00:03:13.199 --> 00:03:15.199 to believe and assume sort of that that's the way 61 00:03:15.319 --> 00:03:17.439 things worked. If you look at all the old movies. 62 00:03:17.560 --> 00:03:20.800 Whenever there's the disaster, government swings into action. The authorities 63 00:03:20.840 --> 00:03:25.719 are called plans are executed, Jeep's race out of garages, sirens, 64 00:03:25.759 --> 00:03:29.400 whaling and things. They're done. Now, we believe that when 65 00:03:29.400 --> 00:03:32.280 something happens, generally the government is going to be flat footed, 66 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:35.560 stammering and unable to really deal with the first thing 67 00:03:35.560 --> 00:03:37.879 they need to do. It may not be accurate, but 68 00:03:38.159 --> 00:03:40.960 that seems to be the general thought abroad in the land. 69 00:03:41.479 --> 00:03:44.000 You're old enough to remember when we had the crisis 70 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:46.280 of confidence in the seventies, where we seem to believe 71 00:03:46.280 --> 00:03:48.520 that the government was incapable of doing anything and it 72 00:03:48.599 --> 00:03:51.240 was just nothing but managed decline from here on in 73 00:03:51.639 --> 00:03:54.360 changed in the eighties. But do you feel that same 74 00:03:54.439 --> 00:03:57.759 sort of malaise when it comes to our government? 75 00:03:58.840 --> 00:04:01.120 Oh yeah, what's the old joke or the old line 76 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:03.479 that history doesn't repeat itself but at rhymes that apparently 77 00:04:03.479 --> 00:04:06.400 Mark Twain never said. But look, there's two things here 78 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:09.960 going on. One is, uh, you know, FEMA takes five 79 00:04:10.039 --> 00:04:12.039 days to get anywhere, and they get and then they 80 00:04:12.120 --> 00:04:15.599 bigfoot everybody like the FBI does with local crime investigations. 81 00:04:16.040 --> 00:04:19.600 And in Florida's case, I think the subtext here is please, femous, 82 00:04:19.639 --> 00:04:22.600 stay away, don't come here. We've got this. And you 83 00:04:22.639 --> 00:04:25.399 know you mentioned the hyper confidence of Governor DeSantis. I'll 84 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:27.360 share with you that I did get have one conversation 85 00:04:27.439 --> 00:04:29.399 with him about this subject a couple of years ago, 86 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:31.439 and I brought up the fact that, you know, Miami 87 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:35.759 was essentially leveled by a huge hurricane around nineteen thirty five, 88 00:04:35.800 --> 00:04:38.240 but nobody lived there then. And I said, so, you 89 00:04:38.279 --> 00:04:40.480 know what if you have a Cat five hurricane it 90 00:04:40.519 --> 00:04:42.439 hits Miami or Palm Beach. And he says, I don't 91 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:45.120 really worry about that because the building code since then 92 00:04:45.160 --> 00:04:48.399 have been very robust and they're organized for it. Says, 93 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:51.360 what keeps me awake at night for hurricanes is Tampa 94 00:04:51.399 --> 00:04:53.639 Bay and he said, it's the geography of it. The 95 00:04:53.680 --> 00:04:56.319 storm surger would be much larger and there's nothing we 96 00:04:56.319 --> 00:04:58.439 can do about that, and that would present a much 97 00:04:58.480 --> 00:05:01.000 bigger challenge. So you would you heard that Milton was 98 00:05:01.000 --> 00:05:03.319 heading straight for Tampa Bay. I thought, well, here we go. 99 00:05:03.439 --> 00:05:05.360 This is going to be the big challenge. Now it 100 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:08.160 veered off a bit to what Sarasota, I guess, and 101 00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:10.759 so Tampa Bay was spared a direct hit. 102 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:11.879 So we're lucky here. 103 00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:14.160 But then, of course, the other thing I think you 104 00:05:14.199 --> 00:05:18.160 mentioned is you know, gee, Governor, isn't this more proof 105 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:20.639 of climate change? Well, you know, if you look at 106 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:25.439 the data, Milton ranks eighteenth in the level of intensity 107 00:05:25.439 --> 00:05:27.720 of Florida hurricanes for which we have records going back 108 00:05:27.759 --> 00:05:31.399 over one hundred years eighteenth. Most of those hurricanes that 109 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:35.600 ranking ahead of Milton happened before nineteen sixty, before we 110 00:05:35.639 --> 00:05:39.199 started having so you know, the whole climate change the 111 00:05:39.279 --> 00:05:42.439 story really starts around nineteen So the point is that 112 00:05:42.720 --> 00:05:44.000 the data doesn't back up. 113 00:05:43.879 --> 00:05:46.519 The panicky narrative, but that won't stop them, of course. 114 00:05:48.399 --> 00:05:54.319 No, No, and Charles, the panicking narrative has a variety 115 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:58.319 of solutions which can be seamlessly and easily implemented to 116 00:05:58.360 --> 00:06:02.399 stop this from ever happening again, I guess. And it's 117 00:06:02.439 --> 00:06:04.959 just our mutation is to refuse to accept what we 118 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:09.279 must do tomorrow. But if we have Kamala Harrison the 119 00:06:09.279 --> 00:06:12.800 White House, is there going to be a push for 120 00:06:13.240 --> 00:06:17.800 more green nude eels as they used to say, or 121 00:06:17.879 --> 00:06:19.279 is it just or is it just going to be 122 00:06:19.279 --> 00:06:21.639 part of the usual atmosphere and chattering lip service. 123 00:06:21.959 --> 00:06:25.279 No, the hurricanes will immediately stop if she wins. That's 124 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:28.199 it was it January twentieth and augreat the new president. 125 00:06:28.240 --> 00:06:30.759 That's it gone, which is just as. 126 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:33.560 The sea level stopped rising when Obama became president, Right, 127 00:06:33.560 --> 00:06:34.120 we remember that. 128 00:06:34.439 --> 00:06:38.439 Yeah, The Inflation Reduction Act, which despite its title, was 129 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:44.720 actually a way of funneling trillion dollars to green Democratic groups, 130 00:06:44.920 --> 00:06:47.839 doesn't seem to have stopped hurricanes either. James May I 131 00:06:47.879 --> 00:06:51.040 make a broader political point about Florida that I think 132 00:06:51.160 --> 00:06:53.920 might be interesting to people who don't live here. There 133 00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:56.519 are two things about Florida politics that I've noticed in 134 00:06:56.560 --> 00:07:01.199 the last seven years since I lived here that I 135 00:07:01.199 --> 00:07:04.959 think haven't necessarily escaped the state's borders. 136 00:07:05.519 --> 00:07:07.600 One is that Rondo Santas is not. 137 00:07:07.600 --> 00:07:10.399 Regarded in Florida as this great controversial figure in the 138 00:07:10.439 --> 00:07:13.279 way he is nationally. And it's very amusing to hear 139 00:07:13.319 --> 00:07:16.519 him discussed as such outside of Florida, because in Florida 140 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:20.519 he just seems like a normal, competent governor. The second thing, 141 00:07:20.639 --> 00:07:25.160 and the more important thing, I think is to most 142 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:30.399 voters in Florida, I think I'm right in saying hurricane 143 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:35.279 response is why the government exists, and if you do 144 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:41.000 it well, you are rewarded for it. Everything else is 145 00:07:41.040 --> 00:07:45.079 either on autopilot or is regarded as a luxury. The 146 00:07:45.120 --> 00:07:50.720 autopilot part of the equation just cannot be overstated. Jeb 147 00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:54.800 Bush was a terrific governor, turned Florida around and made 148 00:07:54.800 --> 00:07:58.720 modern Florida essentially what it is, and constitutionalized a lot 149 00:07:58.759 --> 00:08:01.879 of things people now associate with the state. No income 150 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:05.240 tax and so on was already there, but he extended 151 00:08:05.279 --> 00:08:09.360 that to all forms of income. We now have a 152 00:08:09.399 --> 00:08:13.480 constitutional amendment that prevents the state from raising any form 153 00:08:13.480 --> 00:08:16.759 of tax or fee without two thirds majority in both 154 00:08:17.240 --> 00:08:18.360 houses of the legislature. 155 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:19.680 That's in the constitution. 156 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:21.639 There's a bunch of things like that, which means if 157 00:08:21.639 --> 00:08:23.319 you're a governor, yes, you have to do things, and 158 00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:25.319 it's very important that you have the right governor, as 159 00:08:25.319 --> 00:08:27.680 we saw during COVID. But the thing that you are 160 00:08:27.800 --> 00:08:30.560 judged on more than anything else, is not whether you're 161 00:08:30.560 --> 00:08:34.039 low or raise taxes because you can't, but whether you 162 00:08:34.159 --> 00:08:37.720 deal with the hurricanes. Probably rohonder Sands won by twenty 163 00:08:37.759 --> 00:08:39.879 points in twenty twenty two. I think he'd have won 164 00:08:39.919 --> 00:08:42.159 by ten if it weren't for his response to the 165 00:08:42.240 --> 00:08:44.679 hurricane that happened just before, but the fact that he 166 00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:46.919 did so well with that hurricane is why he won 167 00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:50.399 by another ten points, because independence just said, oh great. 168 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:53.840 And I think that this is going to happen again 169 00:08:54.360 --> 00:08:57.480 this year. I think that Republicans were going to win 170 00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:00.759 the state legislature in Florida again, and I think Trump 171 00:09:00.879 --> 00:09:02.279 was going to win, and I think Rick Scott was 172 00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:04.279 going to win. But I really would not be surprised 173 00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:06.639 now if you could tackle another five, six, seven points 174 00:09:06.639 --> 00:09:09.799 to how Republicans do in the state, purely because two 175 00:09:09.879 --> 00:09:13.279 hurricanes in a row, the party in power has shown 176 00:09:13.440 --> 00:09:16.399 that it did what it was there for. And I 177 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:19.440 think this is just underestimated when people outside talk about 178 00:09:19.480 --> 00:09:22.000 Florida politics, or well, how will the state vote, what 179 00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:24.480 do people carry out? What about this issue or that issue. 180 00:09:24.639 --> 00:09:28.360 It's all valid, but the hurricane response question is really 181 00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:30.360 what matter is more than anything else, and it's going 182 00:09:30.399 --> 00:09:31.799 to have a big effect in November. 183 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:34.679 Well, you've just described a nightmare for most people, people 184 00:09:34.679 --> 00:09:36.960 on the left at least, who look at Florida and say, 185 00:09:37.200 --> 00:09:40.600 without the taxation system, how do you properly adjudicate what 186 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:43.519 people should possess? How do you get the income from 187 00:09:43.519 --> 00:09:45.559 these people and get it to these people who need it? 188 00:09:45.720 --> 00:09:48.320 That's nightmare number one and two. If you want to 189 00:09:48.360 --> 00:09:52.000 take Florida a success story, I say I'm having with 190 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:55.679 scare quotes here, then you're transporting a culture that bans 191 00:09:55.720 --> 00:09:58.759 books and infuses to allow people to say the word 192 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:01.840 gay in any school situation. I mean that that is 193 00:10:01.879 --> 00:10:04.960 a you speak as though you don't live in one 194 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:09.600 of the most oppressive, fascistic or nascently fascistic states in 195 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:13.799 the kinds of stunning, stunning, stunning. Stephen, your your response 196 00:10:13.840 --> 00:10:15.039 before we go to our guest. 197 00:10:15.360 --> 00:10:17.399 Ah, I don't really have one. 198 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:20.159 I mean, I mean the only you left out, James 199 00:10:20.159 --> 00:10:22.159 was we're only you know, ten thousand votes in a 200 00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:29.240 close election away from the Handmaid's Tale in Florida everywhere else, right, Yeah. 201 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:30.080 Well, we do have an election going on, and when 202 00:10:30.080 --> 00:10:32.320 people think about it, oh what people think about it 203 00:10:32.440 --> 00:10:34.960 is well, they may want to reach for the top 204 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:36.720 shelf where they got the brown stuff in the bottles, 205 00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:39.120 or the clear stuff, or for that matter of sparkling, 206 00:10:40.480 --> 00:10:44.639 you know, infused famine or something like that. 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Do I have 240 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:25.600 that pronounce correctly? I'm sure that I don't. He's the 241 00:12:25.639 --> 00:12:28.879 founding editor of Real Clear Pennsylvania. We're happy that is here. 242 00:12:28.919 --> 00:12:31.960 And Charles tell me how badly I mangled your last name. 243 00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:33.480 You got my name just right. 244 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:34.440 It is macawee. 245 00:12:34.519 --> 00:12:36.720 Oh oh good for me, you know, well as somebody 246 00:12:36.720 --> 00:12:39.279 who goes around hearing lilix all the time instead of Lilacs, 247 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:44.399 I'm keen to be good here, all right, Real Clear Politics, Pennsylvania. Well, 248 00:12:44.440 --> 00:12:46.440 you had a piece a couple of weeks ago titled 249 00:12:46.480 --> 00:12:51.159 Kamala Harris's Pennsylvania Problem. What is her problem? 250 00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:55.919 She has a problem among that vast expanse of working 251 00:12:55.919 --> 00:13:00.440 class regions in Pennsylvania. And of course we know this 252 00:13:00.559 --> 00:13:05.559 region as it was described inaccurately by Democrats strategists Jim 253 00:13:05.639 --> 00:13:09.240 Carter Alabama in the middle. But this region has changed 254 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:13.240 dramatically since he first employed that term in eighty six 255 00:13:13.759 --> 00:13:18.399 And really it's Northeastern Pennsylvania was a Democratic bastion, one 256 00:13:18.440 --> 00:13:22.559 that was indistinguishable when it came to once association of 257 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:27.200 the Catholic Democrats that would put Democrats over the top 258 00:13:27.360 --> 00:13:30.320 in elections. This is a region that is trending red. 259 00:13:30.399 --> 00:13:33.840 Luzern County, for example, just this past month, has a 260 00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:37.360 Republican voter registration majority, and that was an Obama to 261 00:13:37.440 --> 00:13:42.159 Trump county in twenty sixteen at Lakawana County, Biden's home 262 00:13:42.200 --> 00:13:43.600 turf where. 263 00:13:43.360 --> 00:13:44.039 He grew up. 264 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:48.440 Even precincts there and Scranton are shifting red. So while 265 00:13:48.480 --> 00:13:52.039 there are still plenty of ancestral Democrats there who will 266 00:13:52.240 --> 00:13:55.879 vote Democrat in this election as well, in this critical 267 00:13:55.919 --> 00:13:59.519 margins fight, it's a place like northeastern Pennsylvania that will 268 00:13:59.559 --> 00:14:01.720 determine the electoral outcome in the state. 269 00:14:02.679 --> 00:14:05.399 Charles, it's Steve Hayward out in god forsake in California. 270 00:14:05.480 --> 00:14:07.960 And we keep hearing that Pennsylvania is not just the 271 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:10.519 Keystone state, but the Keystone are the entire election. 272 00:14:10.759 --> 00:14:12.039 And I don't know. 273 00:14:12.399 --> 00:14:14.879 You can see lots of possible combinations of states where 274 00:14:14.919 --> 00:14:17.600 Pennsylvania could be lost by Trump or by Harris and 275 00:14:17.919 --> 00:14:18.360 still win. 276 00:14:19.039 --> 00:14:19.720 But it is true. 277 00:14:19.720 --> 00:14:23.240 I guess that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan tend to 278 00:14:23.320 --> 00:14:25.519 vote together. In other words, they're three dominoes that lean 279 00:14:25.639 --> 00:14:27.679 on each other. And so you mentioned north, they just 280 00:14:27.720 --> 00:14:30.799 say north eastern Pennsylvan northwestern Pennsylvania. I'm thinking you up 281 00:14:30.799 --> 00:14:33.200 around Erie and all the rest. And I don't know 282 00:14:33.279 --> 00:14:36.519 the geography all that well. But the first question is, 283 00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:39.639 you know, I know Eerie by the Lake and all that, 284 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:43.799 and other parts of Pennsylvania still strongly unionized. And yet 285 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:46.279 we've seen the data and the fact that the United 286 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:50.240 Auto Workers and the Teamsters declined to endorse Harris, and 287 00:14:50.279 --> 00:14:54.000 their internal polls showing majority of their members favoring Trump. 288 00:14:55.000 --> 00:14:57.840 And I don't know what's your sense of all that. 289 00:14:57.919 --> 00:14:59.919 Do you think that while the polls show a dead ea. 290 00:15:00.200 --> 00:15:02.960 Do you think the polls are underestimating as they have 291 00:15:03.039 --> 00:15:05.559 in the past, Trump's strength, especially with those kind of voters. 292 00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:09.240 So I think when it comes to Pennsylvania, of that 293 00:15:09.519 --> 00:15:14.240 traditional blue wall when you think Wisconsin Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is 294 00:15:14.279 --> 00:15:18.399 the hardest to discern because it's a state of complex 295 00:15:18.480 --> 00:15:23.480 demography that has been fueled by post twenty sixteen changes. 296 00:15:23.799 --> 00:15:26.399 The map of Pennsylvania just in the past eight years 297 00:15:26.559 --> 00:15:29.360 is far different now than it was when Trump narrowly 298 00:15:29.399 --> 00:15:31.679 won the state in sixteen. When you think of that 299 00:15:31.799 --> 00:15:34.879 union vote in a place like Eerie, for example, Yes, 300 00:15:34.960 --> 00:15:39.960 there are still plenty of traditional Democrats who have that 301 00:15:40.039 --> 00:15:45.960 allegiance to church, party and Union who may still vote 302 00:15:46.360 --> 00:15:51.039 deed no matter what, but they're diminishing, diminishing in numbers. 303 00:15:51.639 --> 00:15:54.360 And really when you look at the state wide map, 304 00:15:54.919 --> 00:15:58.879 it's a non unionized sector, the warehousing and logistics sector 305 00:15:58.919 --> 00:16:02.200 that is booming across the state, especially on the eastern half, 306 00:16:02.840 --> 00:16:08.519 and Latinos are increasingly comprising the majority of that workforce. 307 00:16:09.039 --> 00:16:11.679 And in so many cities east of the Soft Squarehanna River, 308 00:16:11.759 --> 00:16:16.279 in places like Allentown, Hazelsen, Lebanon, Lancaster. They comprise the 309 00:16:16.279 --> 00:16:20.279 majority plurality of the population, and they're working in warehousing logistics, 310 00:16:20.360 --> 00:16:23.639 and they, as twenty twenty has shown, are shifting red. 311 00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:27.600 So if voting blocked six hundred thousand eligible voters, if 312 00:16:27.600 --> 00:16:31.840 they're activated in the state to vote, they could play 313 00:16:31.879 --> 00:16:33.720 a real pivotal role in this outcome. 314 00:16:34.480 --> 00:16:36.519 So and the other thing I'm sure you can tell 315 00:16:36.600 --> 00:16:39.960 us about is apparently Republican registration in the state of 316 00:16:39.960 --> 00:16:42.600 Pennsylvania has been surging. So talk about that a little 317 00:16:42.600 --> 00:16:45.080 bit because that seems certainly favorable for Trump. 318 00:16:45.360 --> 00:16:48.120 It's a fascinating dynamic because when you look at voter 319 00:16:48.200 --> 00:16:51.000 registration statistics going back to nineteen ninety eight, which is 320 00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:53.600 the first time that the state has them on record, 321 00:16:53.879 --> 00:16:56.600 it's the narrownessive advantage that. 322 00:16:56.519 --> 00:16:58.360 The Democrats have since that time. 323 00:16:58.559 --> 00:17:02.080 For perspective, and two thousand and eight, when Obama won, 324 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:04.519 there was a one point two million advantage for Dems 325 00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:08.880 and it is diminished now. And that is driven in 326 00:17:08.960 --> 00:17:12.880 part by those ancestral Democrats and working class regions who 327 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:15.799 they have been revoting Republican, let's say, in the past 328 00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:18.960 twenty years, and they're just catching up with their voting patterns. 329 00:17:19.559 --> 00:17:23.359 But there are also plenty of people who are just 330 00:17:23.440 --> 00:17:26.240 disaffected with the Democrat Party. They no longer view them 331 00:17:26.319 --> 00:17:29.880 as defenders of their economic self interests. And these voters 332 00:17:29.880 --> 00:17:33.160 aren't just in those blue collar areas of the state 333 00:17:33.200 --> 00:17:36.519 beyond let's say Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. They're around Philadelphia too. 334 00:17:36.599 --> 00:17:40.519 Pockets of Delaware County Bucks County, for example, they flip 335 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:44.039 to red recently, and that's driven a large part by 336 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:48.000 blue collar Catholic Democrats who have gone red in the 337 00:17:48.039 --> 00:17:49.079 lower half of the county. 338 00:17:49.400 --> 00:17:53.839 So one more question before I hand over to Charlie Trump. Parisays, 339 00:17:53.880 --> 00:17:55.880 of course, is not the only thing to watch in 340 00:17:55.920 --> 00:17:58.920 the state. There's a very hot Senate race between what's 341 00:17:58.960 --> 00:18:01.440 his name Casey and McCormick. 342 00:18:01.799 --> 00:18:04.039 And lately, by the way. 343 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:07.279 The last several election cycles presidential cycles, the Senate racers 344 00:18:07.279 --> 00:18:09.119 have tend to go with the top of the ticket. 345 00:18:09.240 --> 00:18:11.440 In fact, there's only one exception, I think, and that 346 00:18:11.599 --> 00:18:14.559 was the Susan Collins in twenty twenty in Maine. Maine 347 00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:17.440 went for Biden and Collins kept her seat comfortably. 348 00:18:17.480 --> 00:18:20.880 But what can you tell us about that race? 349 00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:23.400 Is it also as close as the presidential race, and 350 00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:25.799 what are your expectations. 351 00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:27.920 When you look at the real clear politics polling average, 352 00:18:27.920 --> 00:18:30.119 I mean the advantage that Casey has now it's about 353 00:18:30.119 --> 00:18:33.319 three point nine percent. That's narvous at this point and 354 00:18:33.440 --> 00:18:36.240 memory since he was first elected at six and really 355 00:18:36.279 --> 00:18:39.440 the last time that let's say, the tickets split in 356 00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:42.440 Pennsylvania between the Senate race and the presidential election was 357 00:18:42.480 --> 00:18:44.680 in two thousand and four when Carrie won the state 358 00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:47.559 by ar On inspector of the Republican carried. 359 00:18:47.319 --> 00:18:49.279 It out with the power of fancy. 360 00:18:49.640 --> 00:18:53.920 But this is extremely close, really the most competitive race 361 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:57.480 that Casey has faced since he was first elected statewide 362 00:18:57.960 --> 00:19:02.640 in nineteen ninety six as art or general. So that's 363 00:19:02.720 --> 00:19:08.039 driven again by that complex changing demography and then unforeseen circumstances. 364 00:19:08.079 --> 00:19:11.599 For example, I am talking to many Jewish voters across 365 00:19:11.599 --> 00:19:15.599 the state, plenty outside Phildelphia and Pittsburgh who polled no 366 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:18.839 love for the Republican Party. They are quite liberal in 367 00:19:18.880 --> 00:19:23.279 their positions, but they don't view Casey as represented. But 368 00:19:23.279 --> 00:19:26.599 the party's left war turn on the issue of Israel 369 00:19:26.839 --> 00:19:28.279 and the antend of only from McCormick. 370 00:19:29.519 --> 00:19:33.519 That's actually a good segue to my question. It's pretty 371 00:19:33.599 --> 00:19:39.119 much uniformly assumed on the right that Harris should have 372 00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:45.279 chosen Josh Shapiro because he's in the governor's mansion. But 373 00:19:46.599 --> 00:19:49.880 and it's also assumed that she didn't because he's Jewish, 374 00:19:49.960 --> 00:19:53.240 and that there is a constituency within the Democratic Party 375 00:19:53.240 --> 00:19:54.640 that would have had a problem with that given its 376 00:19:54.680 --> 00:19:56.119 problems with Israel. 377 00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:56.920 How true is that? 378 00:19:57.000 --> 00:20:00.000 Is that something that people on the right say because 379 00:20:00.400 --> 00:20:05.359 they don't like Harris or is there some substance to it. 380 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:10.279 I think the decision that was made is more complex 381 00:20:10.319 --> 00:20:12.680 in that single issue alone. I think there's also the 382 00:20:13.200 --> 00:20:17.200 factor that Shapiro, in terms of his raw political talents, 383 00:20:17.640 --> 00:20:22.920 whether it's oratory or just campaigning, outshine Harris. 384 00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:27.119 And that was a factor that was taken into serious consideration. 385 00:20:27.559 --> 00:20:29.599 It will be fascinating to find out what we do 386 00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:32.599 learn in the history books about that decision, because it 387 00:20:32.640 --> 00:20:35.440 may prove to be quite a consequential one, because I 388 00:20:35.480 --> 00:20:36.119 do think that. 389 00:20:36.119 --> 00:20:38.359 Had Shapiro been chosen. 390 00:20:38.480 --> 00:20:41.480 While I think it's also over stated that if he 391 00:20:41.519 --> 00:20:44.319 had been chosen, Pennsylvania would have been assured for Harris, 392 00:20:44.759 --> 00:20:47.279 it certainly would have helped her cause in the state 393 00:20:47.319 --> 00:20:51.799 when considering his work in regions that have been less 394 00:20:52.279 --> 00:20:54.759 targeted by Democrats and recent cycles. 395 00:20:55.559 --> 00:20:58.680 And my second question, you just described the way the 396 00:20:58.680 --> 00:21:02.640 state has changed and is changing. I have a friend 397 00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:06.480 who said something really provocative a couple of days ago 398 00:21:06.559 --> 00:21:10.240 to me. He said, you know, Pennsylvania's becoming Ohio. It's 399 00:21:10.279 --> 00:21:13.200 moving towards where Ohio is going to become a Republican state. 400 00:21:13.319 --> 00:21:15.640 And I instinctively just don't believe this because I always 401 00:21:15.640 --> 00:21:16.920