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Speaker 1: You know, I think people don't appreciate Trump's success over

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his long career has been his ability to gauge and

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measure ricks and take risks. And you know this is

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there's no way you can't say this is a gamble.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: But then the other characteristic he has, he's an incredible improviser,

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and so once he's into something, he can do a

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one eighty to go a different direction if things are

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not working out with the initial plan. And of course

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you know that's that's the way almost all great leaders operate.

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Speaker 3: You're listening to Carrie. Let's his Financial Survival Network where

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 2: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz, and we are

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with Bill Walton today. Bill, you just wrote a piece

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for Blaze. It's up on your substack. Bill Walton dot

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substack dot com, Our substack, khl FSN dot substack dot

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com And basically you're talking about Trump Iran and the

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coalition against victory. Is that what the what the opposition

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really is? I mean, is Rand Paul really against the

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country winning or is he just really fundamentally opposed to

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UH to the country going into wars without problem congression?

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Speaker 1: Well, I'd put Rand Paul in a in a special category,

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which is where he's always been. So I don't think

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he I don't think that's it. He's exactly who had

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in mind. I mean, obviously the Libertarians don't want any

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wars whatsoever. But you know, there's some people in this

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country who supported all the other wars when somebody else

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was president, and now because it's UH the Donald doing this,

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they're they're implacably opposed to it. And you know, they're

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accusing of him of jumping in willy nilly and and

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and it's true he did not do a very good

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job building any kind of coalition or consensus to UH

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to strike against Iran with with Israel.

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Speaker 2: The way he did.

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Speaker 1: But I think he correctly points out that they've been

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monitoring Iran for a long time. And you know, I

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didn't know this, but the Israelis had cracked the uh,

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the IT systems in Iran, and Iran has run has

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tens of thousands of more of cameras that they use

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at surveillance and the Israelis broke into that and uh

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they've been monitoring that for two three years, maybe longer,

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and they caught the Supreme Leader out in daylight with

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with all of his uh, you know, collaborators, and they

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were going going into a really unsecured place and they

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took the opportunity to take them out and they did.

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So there was no the timing was I think dictated

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by the street, the opportunity to take out the Supreme Leader.

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And now we find ourselves all in and you know,

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we got to figure out what to do next. And

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you know, the point of my article in part there

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are lots of aspects was, you know, I think people

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don't appreciate Trump's success over his long career has been

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his ability to gauge and measure ricks and take risks.

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And you know, this is there's no way you can't

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say this is a gamble.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: But then the other characteristic he has he's an incredible

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improviser and so once he's into something, he can do

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a one eighty to go a different direction if things

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are not working out with the initial plan. And of

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course you know that's that's the way almost all great

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leaders operate. It was in Napoleon's there's no battle, No

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battle plan survives the sound of the first gun shot.

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I mean, there are all sorts of few people attributed

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to that quote, but it's it's. It's it's a case

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where we've got somebody who I think is probably one

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of the better presidents we've ever had. And he's got

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to say in his style is very off putting, but

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nevertheless he always seems to have something, something going, and

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I'm we're all eager to find out how this thing

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wraps up. I mean, it's it's if you stare at

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a map of the Middle East very long, you'll draw

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some pretty sober conclusions.

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Speaker 2: So I bring this back to Art of the Deal,

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and I read that book when I was a much

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younger man. I mean, I think the book came out

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in eighty seven, and I might even still have a

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copy around of it. But what he said was when

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he goes into a deal, he doesn't look at the upside.

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He doesn't spend all his time looking at the upside.

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He looks at the downside, and that's what makes him

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decide whether or not to go in a deal, into

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a deal. And what's really cool about that is exactly

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what he did here, exactly what he did in Venezuela, Cuba,

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Panama Canal, and when he goes into other situations, because

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what's his downside going into Iran? We're heading for war anyway.

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You know, it might get bogged down, but in more

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likelihood they're never going to win or force a settlement

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upon the United States in Israel. Same with Venezuela. Hey,

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where's that happens? Is you go to get Maduro and

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he gets killed. Either way, the US is a winner.

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You know, Panama Canal, Cuba perfect example. What's our downside there?

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You know the Cuban people are going to suffer, but

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they've been suffering for sixty seven years. So that ability

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to look at his downside, to calculate the risk and

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then actually make the decision to take the risk is

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really what sets him aside from other presidents. You could

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argue whether his assessment of the risk is wrong, but

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it's the outcome that counts, and we're going to find

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out soon enough, right, well, yeah.

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Speaker 1: I agree that with your other examples that those are

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pretty much not much downside initiatives if he does that,

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you know, especially Cuba, but Iran I think is a different,

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different situation. I mean, first place, it's a massive country

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and size and population over ninety million. You know, he's

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up against the leadership that evidently, even after we take

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the Supreme Leader out as extremely deep and also just

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as fanatic as he was, and so we've lopped the

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head off, we've lopped the next level off, and now

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we're in the third level and they don't see, they

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don't seem any less intransigent than the Supreme Leader. So

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we're still dealing with the irrational negotiators, irrational depending on

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your point of view. Now, the risk, though, is that

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of doing nothing. I think that was the key calculation.

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And you know, we saw when when they launched a

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ballistic missile that ended up in Diego Garcia over two

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thousand miles away Indian Cea. Diego Garcia is the joint

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UK US Air Force base. That proved that they've got

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something that if they turned that launching pad around, you've

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got Paris at London, you know, Berlin, you know, and

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then it's not too far along to you know, you

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start thinking about the United States. So they and the

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other thing is they you know, we thought, well, we've

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taken out their nuclear bomb making capability. That didn't really

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happen night, and we're not sure what did happen, but

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it's clear they were working working on something and there

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was some thoughts that they could put together or something.

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It may not be perfect, but it would certainly kill

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a lot of people. And they were not years away

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from that. They were months away from that. So if

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we didn't act, we'd end up with with Iran, with

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those weapons, with people who believed in martyrdom and and

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the glories of all those virgins in heaven. And that's

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not an enemy. That's not an enemy you'd like to

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you like to sit across the trenches from what people

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are willing to die for their cause happily.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, it makes it different for sure, And you know,

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I'm just hopefully it'll work out. But what about this

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group opposing him, particularly the people on the left, without

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using party tags if you will.

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Speaker 1: Well, the people on the left have not been for America,

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at least America that you know, constitution limited government, you know,

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freedom of speech, all the all the protections we've got

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in the Constitution, they have not been for that country

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for a long time. And the Democrats have been increasingly

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taken over by the by the radical lefts who would

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go even further in the culture wars as we've seen.

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You know, they were never going to support Trump. But

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it's interesting they just don't even care that they also

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might be supporting their country, because that's not that's not

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where they are. And the thing it's interesting is that

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there's a lot of Republicans that are not in that category,

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but nevertheless they're they're luke warm because you know, the

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awful lot of deep state Rhino Republicans and lobbyists and

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people of Washington who really want Trump to go away

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because he's ruined their game and so if he me

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has nothing to do with the war, but they just

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want to see Trump fail, and if Trump fails, then

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they think they can win the election in twenty twenty six.

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Can Yeah, And you know, there's some Republicans that don't

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seem to mind being in the minority. So it's it's

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not like we've got a lot of a lot of

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ferocious warriors on on on the right, if that's what

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you want to call it. We don't, so it's it's

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Trump been a few supporters against virtually everybody else.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: By the way, he's got the he's got the Wall

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Street Journal, which is interesting because I've been reading the

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Wall Street Journal for the last year and they had nothing

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good to say about Trump. But you know, they were

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big Paul g. Joe was all in on the rock.

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And I think they still feel like, you know, we

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ought to be projecting power abroad. So they've been supportive

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of of of President Trump, which which I'm glad to see.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely, And uh, well I guess well, uh,

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history will be the judge. But it's a big gamble

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to be taking. And but I think it's also a

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big gamble to be taking that that, you know, betting

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against the country, rooting for defeat. That that's pretty bad,

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you know, Bill, it really is. It's kind of disgraceful, disgusting. Yeah,

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that's more disgusting in one word.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let me tell you some horribles that I

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didn't quite realize. I spent that three hours looking at

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a map of the Middle East yesterday, and a couple

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of things jumped out. One is the you know, United

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Arab Emirates is just right across the strait from Iraq,

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and so all those Arab countries which I sort of

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thought was remote from from Iran rather Iran, are not,

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and they're they're easy shooting distance for for whatever weapons

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that Iran has left. The other thing, if you just

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look at the political map, you don't recognize how the

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terrain in Iran is Awfully you know, it's it's mountainous,

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and if you look at the shoreline, it's also mountainous,

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and there's there's really no beaches or any place you

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could land to go in to launch an invasion, even

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if we did want to have ground troops. And then

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you know, the thing about this Carg Island is it's

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just off off the shoreline of Iraq, and you know

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there are lots of other ways that they could you know,

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if we did take If we did take Carg, then

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it's most likely that Iran would shut off. They put

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the oil there and may and get it delivered in

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some other ways. So it's not exactly a checkmate if

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we get it. And as far as taking the uranium,

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I mean, you got to believe these people aren't dumb

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enough if they've got four hundred and fifty what is

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it four and fifty pounds or four and fifty I've

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lost track five the kilos. Anyway, we've had enough uranium

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to make like ten or twelve nuclear weapons. And after

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the last strike last year, you have to believe they've

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got that scattered all over the country. So we couldn't

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we couldn't gather it all up now, you know, on

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the other side, what's not being reported around has been devastated.

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I mean, the bombing campaign is you know, they've they've

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delivered something like three times three times the amount of

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explosives as we had the Hiroshima bo Hiroshima weapon that

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and we used in World War Two, and you know,

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so it's it's it's not like Dresden in World War Two,

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where you're bombing a very concentrated areas all over the country.

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But they've they succeeded in taking an awful lot of

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the infrastructure. So you know, they're they're they're on the

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verge of societal collapse because of the collapse of the infrastructure.

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And you don't read about that in the US media

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or even the European media. For that matter, because again

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that's that coalition against victory I think we're up against.

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Speaker 2: Couldn't agree with you more so, how do you think

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it's going to wind up? Your prediction?

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Speaker 1: Okay, I don't know Donald's. Donald's doesn't like to be

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pinned down. Yeah, it seems to me like there's if

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we'd hope for regime change, I don't think we realized

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how deep their bench was and that there they've got

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enough enough people still in place that I don't think

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they're inclined to let let a regime change happen. And then,

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of course, the only people that have guns are the

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leadership in Iraq and all the rest of the people

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are unarmed, and they were able to kill thirty two

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thousand people just last month. I don't know, So we're

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not going to get a regime change, but we certainly

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defanged that their military, their war making capability, and so

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I think there could be a basis for for some

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sort of negotiated into this. But their demands right now

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are completely extreme. We're supposed to exit the Middle East

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and you know, do all sorts of things. We and

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of course our demands are from their perspective equal, you know,

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it's extreme to them. And so we're pretty far apart

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on on on any talking. So my guess is we're

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going to keep shooting. And the thing that we don't

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want to have happened, and and and it's a card

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that Iran has is these desalienation plants, which are so

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critical to the Middle East. They're there within uh they're

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within shooting distance of of Iran, and if they start

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going after desalination uh plants, all of a sudden, the

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ability to's the same society in those countries goes away.

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It would be a human rights catastrophe. So you know,

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that's that's where this could go. And so we need

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to be you know, it's it's not like we like

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the other side doesn't hold cards. So I think we've

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got to figure out some way to wind this down,

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excepting that we're not going to get total victory.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's where I think the invasion from the

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north is coming, but we won't know until it's done.

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Trump is the master of distraction. I mean, if he

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was a magician, he would be better than David Copperfield because.

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Speaker 1: I quite agree agree.

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Speaker 2: Going man, he's fun to watch.

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Speaker 1: Hey, I'm with him, but I just this. This is

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a tough game.

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Speaker 2: Well, on the one hand, he's got everybody looking at

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the the Straits of Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz, and

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on the other hand he's got the Iranian armed forces

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pinned down over there. Now it's ripe for an invasion

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from the north using the Kurds as well as other

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mercenary force. How many Kurds are there, because I you know,

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ten to fifteen thousand I've heard, but you right, how much.

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Speaker 1: Iran's got an army, army that has a million men

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in it.

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Speaker 2: They know how many the loyalty we don't know about.

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But to point is that could very well be planning

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an invasion from the north, and not that the Strait

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of Horror moves doesn't matter, but they're not ready for it. Mountains,

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the eighty second Airborne probably going to go in there,

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see some airfields, air bases and fly them in. Anyway, Hey,

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make sure you check out Bill Walton dot substack dot com,

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k h l FSN substack dot com. Bill always a pleasure,

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Thanks so much for here stopping by.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Kerry, great talking with you.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival network your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,