WEBVTT 1 00:00:23.000 --> 00:00:26.719 Hello and welcome to the trib Cast for Tuesday, July fifteenth. 2 00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:30.559 I'm Eleanor Klibanoff Law and Politics reporter, joined as always 3 00:00:30.640 --> 00:00:32.439 by editor in chief Matthew Watkins. 4 00:00:32.520 --> 00:00:36.000 Hello, how are you doing well? Just got back last 5 00:00:36.079 --> 00:00:37.079 night from Mexico City. 6 00:00:37.240 --> 00:00:40.920 Well, yeah, that's a that's a better location than Texas 7 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:43.000 has been for the last couple of last couple of days. 8 00:00:43.079 --> 00:00:47.679 Much cooler, yes, yeah, temperature less humid and maybe we 9 00:00:48.079 --> 00:00:52.119 yes yeah. Well you know, Matthew, when you I do 10 00:00:52.159 --> 00:00:54.079 have a bone to pick with you, because when we 11 00:00:54.200 --> 00:00:58.159 discussed me becoming the law and politics reporter, I thought 12 00:00:58.200 --> 00:01:01.520 I had five years until I had to start caring 13 00:01:01.520 --> 00:01:02.560 about redistricting. 14 00:01:04.319 --> 00:01:06.200 Well, you know that was very naive of you. 15 00:01:07.040 --> 00:01:10.599 I thought the rule was every ten years, and so 16 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:12.719 I thought five years from now, who knows, maybe I'll be, 17 00:01:12.959 --> 00:01:17.079 you know, a reclusive billionaire by then. I wouldn't have to, 18 00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:19.599 you know, dig in on redistricting. And now here we are. 19 00:01:20.079 --> 00:01:24.400 It is the middle of the decade. I have accepted 20 00:01:24.400 --> 00:01:27.640 this job, no takebacks, and we are getting into redistricting. 21 00:01:27.840 --> 00:01:33.000 So really excited to dig in on that issue today. 22 00:01:33.200 --> 00:01:33.959 Yes, very. 23 00:01:36.319 --> 00:01:38.719 Just the topic that you want to learn with like 24 00:01:39.079 --> 00:01:42.079 a very short notice on the fly, complicated at all. 25 00:01:42.159 --> 00:01:45.640 No, absolutely not, which is why we're extremely excited to 26 00:01:45.680 --> 00:01:49.200 have a guest who knows this issue backwards and forwards. 27 00:01:49.959 --> 00:01:54.439 Kareem Creighton is Vice president of the Brennan Center for Justices, Washington, 28 00:01:54.519 --> 00:01:58.439 d C. Office, and a scholar on the intersection of law, politics, 29 00:01:58.439 --> 00:02:01.239 and race. During the twenty two ty redistricting cycle, he 30 00:02:01.280 --> 00:02:05.079 advised nearly a dozen local jurisdictions, commissions and legislative caucuses. 31 00:02:05.560 --> 00:02:08.360 Previously served as executive director of the Southern Coalition for 32 00:02:08.439 --> 00:02:11.639 Social Justice, where he hired and trained a litigation team 33 00:02:11.719 --> 00:02:14.840 to argue in two key jerrymandering cases before the US 34 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:18.680 Supreme Court, and, most relevant to us, served as chief 35 00:02:18.719 --> 00:02:21.479 of staff and special counsel to the Alabama House Minority 36 00:02:21.560 --> 00:02:25.400 leader during a special session on redistricting. He also helped 37 00:02:25.400 --> 00:02:27.560 create a video game about redistricting, which we want to 38 00:02:27.599 --> 00:02:31.439 talk about. Kareem, thank you for joining us. Gelighted to 39 00:02:31.479 --> 00:02:35.039 be with you. You know, this is an issue that 40 00:02:35.240 --> 00:02:37.520 I know you guys think about in the middle of 41 00:02:37.560 --> 00:02:40.039 the decade. You guys think about this all the time, 42 00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:42.960 you know, Just briefly tell us a little bit about 43 00:02:42.960 --> 00:02:47.840 your experience in Alabama, you know, with their redistricting special session. 44 00:02:49.199 --> 00:02:51.479 Sure happy to do that and again thanks for having me. 45 00:02:52.280 --> 00:02:55.319 I am a native of Montgomery and got into this 46 00:02:55.360 --> 00:02:59.479 in part because redistricting in the nineteen nineties was something 47 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:02.400 that changed politics in our state. So I have a 48 00:03:02.439 --> 00:03:07.080 tie to the place in part because a new member 49 00:03:07.319 --> 00:03:11.000 of the House Democratic Caucus, and this was outside of 50 00:03:11.039 --> 00:03:15.280 the nonpartisan work I had done, had taken over a 51 00:03:15.400 --> 00:03:19.680 very young member who mixed things, hadn't done districting before, 52 00:03:20.439 --> 00:03:23.400 took over and was thrown into a middle of a 53 00:03:23.479 --> 00:03:26.599 session to deal with a Supreme Court case that Alabama 54 00:03:26.639 --> 00:03:30.759 had to remedy. And so my commitment to him was, look, 55 00:03:30.759 --> 00:03:32.879 I'll work for a year, We'll work through the special 56 00:03:32.879 --> 00:03:35.599 session and anything else that comes up. What anything else 57 00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:39.840 turned into was this special session dealing with redistricting, a 58 00:03:39.879 --> 00:03:42.919 governor that found himself drummed out of office because of corruption, 59 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:48.240 and a Senate because the prior Attorney general went into 60 00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:50.639 the Trump administration only to be fired. So a lot 61 00:03:50.680 --> 00:03:56.199 happened in that time, but the process for redistricting was 62 00:03:56.240 --> 00:04:00.439 one that definitely, you know, was very much Alabama on brand. 63 00:04:00.479 --> 00:04:02.439 I think other Southern states sort of have some of 64 00:04:02.439 --> 00:04:08.199 this too, but Alabama takes a particular version of doing 65 00:04:08.240 --> 00:04:11.479 what it wants to expite federal order. So the long 66 00:04:11.520 --> 00:04:14.479 and short of this story is it's a Republican supermajority 67 00:04:14.479 --> 00:04:17.800 that decided that it was going to ignore African American 68 00:04:17.839 --> 00:04:23.240 politically by the federal to remedy it, and they fought 69 00:04:23.240 --> 00:04:27.920 tooth and nail on doing it the way that they 70 00:04:27.959 --> 00:04:31.319 wanted to without public input, et cetera. There was it 71 00:04:31.360 --> 00:04:34.360 turned out a filibuster. We can do that in the 72 00:04:34.360 --> 00:04:37.600 state legislature that tried to slow it down. They got 73 00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:41.160 what they wanted anyway. But it was the time before 74 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:45.439 the current fight about redistricting in Alabama, and it really 75 00:04:45.600 --> 00:04:50.720 was exactly what unfortunately, the legislative majority supermajority is keen 76 00:04:50.759 --> 00:04:53.720 to do, do what they want and force the federal 77 00:04:53.759 --> 00:04:56.319 government to tell them otherwise. And as you saw this 78 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:59.959 time around in twenty twenty, I was in another capacity 79 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:03.920 the offering some advice to the legislative minority, some of 80 00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:08.360 the same people from whom I worked before, and the 81 00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:11.000 Republican majority said, well, we're just going to do it 82 00:05:11.040 --> 00:05:13.000 the way we want and go and see us. And 83 00:05:13.079 --> 00:05:16.800 so they got sued and went through extra innings, and 84 00:05:16.839 --> 00:05:20.480 they're still fighting millions of dollars later out of taxpayer 85 00:05:20.519 --> 00:05:23.720 money to fight a case that they were definitely going 86 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:25.199 to lose. We told them they were going to lose 87 00:05:25.199 --> 00:05:27.920 the day they drew these maps. But that's sort of 88 00:05:27.959 --> 00:05:30.319 the story of redistricting I think around the South right now, 89 00:05:30.360 --> 00:05:33.360 and it raises hard questions now with politics at the 90 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:36.680 national level, that leads to even more uncertainty about the law. 91 00:05:37.920 --> 00:05:40.639 Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, a special session on redistricting, 92 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:44.240 an attorney general eyeing a role in the Trump administration, 93 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:47.439 governor on corruption. You know, I don't think I don't 94 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:48.959 know that we're going to see echoes of that here, 95 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:51.480 but you know, certainly we're you know a lot of 96 00:05:51.839 --> 00:05:57.000 similar similar notes playing in Texas right now. So I 97 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.800 want to sort of just briefly and go over like 98 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:03.639 a brief history of redistricting, and Kareem you jump in 99 00:06:03.680 --> 00:06:06.560 when I get off the rails on this. You correct me, 100 00:06:06.800 --> 00:06:10.399 Matthew as well. I know you've covered this issue. But essentially, 101 00:06:10.480 --> 00:06:13.040 right every ten years we do a census in this country. 102 00:06:13.319 --> 00:06:17.439 Once we find out who lives where, states redraw their 103 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:20.360 electoral maps. So that we have roughly the same number 104 00:06:20.360 --> 00:06:25.560 of people in every district. These maps are often drawn goofy, 105 00:06:25.560 --> 00:06:29.560 looking to accommodate, you know, a range of different goals. 106 00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:33.279 Starting the mid sixties, with the Voting Rights Act, there's 107 00:06:33.279 --> 00:06:36.279 a law basically saying you cannot, among many other things, 108 00:06:36.319 --> 00:06:39.519 saying you cannot draw these districts in a way that 109 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:44.160 dilutes minority vote, whether that's by putting everyone in one 110 00:06:44.199 --> 00:06:47.879 district altogether, or by you know, diluting them so much 111 00:06:47.959 --> 00:06:50.959 that their vote doesn't right to the level. 112 00:06:51.040 --> 00:06:54.199 The idea would be, if you have a population of, say, 113 00:06:54.560 --> 00:06:57.160 black voters in an area in the South, you can't 114 00:06:57.160 --> 00:07:01.319 put all the black voters in one districting in order 115 00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:04.240 to make it so that you know, the amount of 116 00:07:04.759 --> 00:07:08.600 power is you know, only in that one legislative seat, 117 00:07:08.600 --> 00:07:10.920 as opposed to the grace, or spread them out into 118 00:07:10.959 --> 00:07:13.160 so many districts that they're so deluded that they can't 119 00:07:13.279 --> 00:07:16.839 be elect there, you know, a member of their choice right. 120 00:07:17.240 --> 00:07:20.800 And historically this is something Southern states among others, but 121 00:07:20.839 --> 00:07:23.759 Southern states in particular have been quite bad at drawing 122 00:07:23.759 --> 00:07:26.000 those maps in a way that complies with Section two 123 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:31.480 of Voting Rights Act. For a long time states head 124 00:07:31.680 --> 00:07:34.560 to states like Texas and Alabama had to get their 125 00:07:34.600 --> 00:07:37.480 maps pre approved by the federal government. That's how bad 126 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:42.680 they were at this. And every single time Texas has 127 00:07:42.680 --> 00:07:45.120 redistricted since the Voting Rights Act went into effect, at 128 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:46.879 least one of their maps have been found to be 129 00:07:46.959 --> 00:07:50.399 not in compliance with the Voting Rights Act. That's sort 130 00:07:50.399 --> 00:07:52.319 of the backdrop to all of this is that. All right, 131 00:07:52.399 --> 00:07:53.120 so far kareem? 132 00:07:53.800 --> 00:07:56.800 I think so far? Are you there? I always like 133 00:07:56.839 --> 00:07:59.279 you have one person, one vote came to us because 134 00:07:59.279 --> 00:08:02.079 of a case authored by Justice Brennan, from whom the 135 00:08:02.120 --> 00:08:04.360 Brendan Center is name. But you're absolutely right about the 136 00:08:04.399 --> 00:08:05.720 general thrust of redistricting. 137 00:08:05.879 --> 00:08:12.319 Okay, great, So then moving on from there where we 138 00:08:12.360 --> 00:08:15.439 are in Texas right now. You know, we drew maps 139 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:18.639 in a little bit weirdly this time around, because the 140 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:21.639 census was delayed because of COVID and other reasons. We 141 00:08:21.759 --> 00:08:24.240 drew our maps in sort of settled on them in 142 00:08:24.279 --> 00:08:27.560 twenty twenty one. In Texas, the legislature draws the maps. 143 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:32.600 Other states do it differently. Those maps immediately faced. 144 00:08:32.919 --> 00:08:35.440 Oh let me let me just pause right here for 145 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:37.320 a little bit of background, Like one you know, As 146 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:39.519 you mentioned, this was done in a special session as 147 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:43.600 opposed to the regular session because of the census being delayed, 148 00:08:43.799 --> 00:08:46.000 but also it was coming in a very interesting time 149 00:08:46.039 --> 00:08:49.639 politically for Texas, which was we were not that far 150 00:08:49.759 --> 00:08:55.080 off from the Bete Rourke election in twenty eighteen, where 151 00:08:55.399 --> 00:08:58.879 Texas was looking like it was really trending in a 152 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:04.879 much bluer direction. You had seen you know, presidential election 153 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:08.840 margins go from sixteen percentage points Republican victory to nine 154 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:12.840 percentage point Republican victory to six percentage points veto almost 155 00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:16.679 wins there. And so one of the things that lawmakers 156 00:09:16.720 --> 00:09:22.320 did during that session was, instead of really pushing to 157 00:09:22.360 --> 00:09:26.440 increase their margins in the various bodies that they drew, 158 00:09:26.759 --> 00:09:29.679 we're talking about congressional in this one, they went toward 159 00:09:29.759 --> 00:09:35.759 a more an incumbent protection map, which was essentially, you know, 160 00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:38.600 Texas got two new seats because of population gains, those 161 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:43.000 went to Republicans, but everywhere else they sort of focused 162 00:09:43.120 --> 00:09:47.480 on shoring up Republican majorities so that the people in 163 00:09:47.519 --> 00:09:51.399 the districts and the parties in power currently there would 164 00:09:51.960 --> 00:09:55.799 essentially be safer as the district went on. As opposed 165 00:09:55.840 --> 00:09:58.840 to you know, really trying to gain three, four or 166 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:01.080 five more Republican seats in that map. 167 00:10:01.480 --> 00:10:05.039 So it is it is a somewhat sort of this 168 00:10:05.080 --> 00:10:08.480 is conservative map in the not both. It is both 169 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:11.480 a conservative map in that it will lead to Republicans 170 00:10:11.519 --> 00:10:14.000 being elected and a conservative map in terms of not 171 00:10:14.519 --> 00:10:16.600 putting their incumbents out on a ledge. 172 00:10:16.399 --> 00:10:19.960 Right, because there were circumstances, you know, you could look 173 00:10:20.039 --> 00:10:24.200 particularly like in the state house maps in Dallas County 174 00:10:24.600 --> 00:10:26.600 where it looked like maybe they got a little too 175 00:10:26.679 --> 00:10:29.279 greedy the last time, right, and they drew a bunch 176 00:10:29.279 --> 00:10:31.840 of different districts that by the end of the decade 177 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:36.639 had all flipped to Democrats in a way that you know, 178 00:10:36.759 --> 00:10:40.200 actually in twenty twenty, people thought that Democrats might have 179 00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.919 been able, like in the lead up to that election, 180 00:10:43.039 --> 00:10:44.840 thought that maybe they were going to flip the House. 181 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:48.399 And so, you know, I think you looked at what 182 00:10:48.440 --> 00:10:51.559 they were doing. If you knew Texas politics, you saw 183 00:10:51.840 --> 00:10:54.080 they're trying to prevent a situation where they're going to 184 00:10:54.080 --> 00:10:57.240 be in trouble in twenty twenty nine to twenty thirty, 185 00:10:57.559 --> 00:11:01.639 as opposed to let's just make these massive games. In 186 00:11:01.679 --> 00:11:02.519 the early part of the. 187 00:11:02.480 --> 00:11:05.039 Decade, right, And I mean a lot of this is 188 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:07.080 happening in every state, right, Koreen. Can you talk a 189 00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:09.519 little bit about like every state is, no matter who, 190 00:11:09.559 --> 00:11:11.480 whether it's run by blue or red, is trying to 191 00:11:11.559 --> 00:11:13.600 draw a map that benefits their party. 192 00:11:13.679 --> 00:11:19.240 Right. Well, it's important to note a couple of things. One, 193 00:11:19.600 --> 00:11:22.919 you're right, states differ about how they draw maps. So 194 00:11:23.279 --> 00:11:26.600 Texas takes the more political approach, where the state legislature 195 00:11:26.720 --> 00:11:28.720 draws the map, and you know, if you've got the 196 00:11:28.919 --> 00:11:31.879 votes on your side of the aisle, you get usually 197 00:11:31.879 --> 00:11:34.080 what you want apps in the lawsuit. There are other 198 00:11:34.120 --> 00:11:41.759 states like California Arizona that actually draw maps by citizen 199 00:11:42.039 --> 00:11:46.080 independent commissions, and those actually tend to take a much 200 00:11:46.120 --> 00:11:50.039 more i think, focused conversation about what the community wants. 201 00:11:50.080 --> 00:11:53.120 So people come and present in a nonpartisan way, what 202 00:11:53.159 --> 00:11:55.480 they think the best communities are to kind of group together. 203 00:11:55.840 --> 00:11:58.240 And often not always, but most of the time, the 204 00:11:58.279 --> 00:12:03.720 states will say, and we don't incumbency or partisanship as 205 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:06.080 a sort of fact that we're going to take into consideration, 206 00:12:06.399 --> 00:12:09.639 and those tend to draw districts that those groups tend 207 00:12:09.679 --> 00:12:11.879 to draw districts that are more competitive. One point. Don't 208 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:14.360 mention about Texas, though, but you're right, there are some others. 209 00:12:14.480 --> 00:12:18.960 There are blue states that are driven by partisan you know, 210 00:12:19.279 --> 00:12:22.679 legislative driven maps, that do tend to produce maps that 211 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:25.159 tend to favor their party. But the one thing in Texas, 212 00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:29.279 it's worth noting it did grow significantly, actually more than 213 00:12:29.279 --> 00:12:31.840 almost every other state. But it's important to note that 214 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:35.600 growth wasn't uniform across the state. And the mistake to 215 00:12:36.799 --> 00:12:38.759 that that's easy to miss in this is that that 216 00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:42.879 growth came within communities of color, and it turns out 217 00:12:42.879 --> 00:12:46.159 that you didn't see a consummate growth, a concurrent growth 218 00:12:46.240 --> 00:12:49.440 in the representation of those communities in the districts that 219 00:12:49.919 --> 00:12:53.000 Republicans drew this time. Now, it's also fair to say 220 00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:56.320 the caveats one. Not all communities of color vote, you know, 221 00:12:56.559 --> 00:12:59.080 one way or the other, but we know where they live, 222 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:01.480 and in those places where they live, you didn't see 223 00:13:01.519 --> 00:13:03.639 a growth in the number of districts in the way 224 00:13:03.679 --> 00:13:07.279 that you would have expected. So yes, it's probably fair 225 00:13:07.360 --> 00:13:11.000 to say, you know, Republicans didn't take the max plan 226 00:13:11.080 --> 00:13:13.360 that they could have drawn, but they certainly tried to 227 00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:17.399 take advantage of every bit of extra territory that they 228 00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:19.600 got because of these new districts there before do they 229 00:13:19.600 --> 00:13:22.840 take everything possible to know? But it is also key 230 00:13:22.879 --> 00:13:25.360 to know Texas is continuing to grow, and so there's 231 00:13:25.399 --> 00:13:28.840 always this question about drawing maps that make sense in time. 232 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:31.399 A but five years, ten years from now, as you 233 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:34.799 point out in Dallas, for example, you see such growth 234 00:13:34.919 --> 00:13:38.399 in the metro area and including right the suburban counties 235 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:42.200 where you actually see drastic change and just who mix 236 00:13:42.320 --> 00:13:44.759 up the district that you can't necessarily cut your margins 237 00:13:44.759 --> 00:13:47.399 that close and expect it to perform the same way, 238 00:13:47.919 --> 00:13:50.440 you know, years after you draw the maps. Yeah. 239 00:13:50.480 --> 00:13:53.399 One of the key stats that opponents of the current 240 00:13:53.480 --> 00:13:56.080 maps point out was that ninety five percent of the 241 00:13:56.120 --> 00:14:02.360 state's population growth was by communities of color in Texas, 242 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:06.759 but there were no new districts drawn, you know, for 243 00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:10.679 to represent those communities that in that time. 244 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:13.080 Right, the two new districts that were drawn were in 245 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:20.879 white dominated, were white dominated and Republican dominated. So as happens, 246 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:24.039 almost like clockwork, right, Texas created these maps in twenty 247 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:27.759 twenty one in a special session, as you said, and 248 00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:31.039 they face a lawsuit by a group at the time 249 00:14:31.279 --> 00:14:33.480 the Department of Justice, as well as a group of 250 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:37.919 plaintiffs representing voters of color, saying we've been discriminated, you know, 251 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:43.200 these discriminated against voters of color, and that case took, 252 00:14:43.639 --> 00:14:46.360 as these do, close to four years to move through 253 00:14:46.480 --> 00:14:49.759 the legal system, culminating in a trial last month in 254 00:14:49.840 --> 00:14:55.720 El Paso, where and this is important, the plaintiffs argued 255 00:14:55.720 --> 00:14:59.200 that these maps were drawn sort of based on race 256 00:14:59.279 --> 00:15:02.799 to discriminate against voters of color, and the state argued 257 00:15:02.960 --> 00:15:05.799 repeatedly their main point was these were not drawn based 258 00:15:05.799 --> 00:15:09.159 on race. They were drawn almost entirely based on partisan goals, 259 00:15:11.200 --> 00:15:16.679 Which brings us to, you know, a couple of weeks ago, 260 00:15:16.799 --> 00:15:19.919 where we start hearing rumors that the Trump administration is 261 00:15:20.440 --> 00:15:24.039 pushing Texas to do a rare but not unheard of 262 00:15:24.440 --> 00:15:31.360 mid decade redraw of the congressional maps to try to 263 00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:34.240 get a couple more seats in the midterm elections. 264 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:38.159 The idea here being, according to reporting of you know, 265 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:40.679 representing Trump's thinking, essentially that this is going to be 266 00:15:40.720 --> 00:15:44.360 a hard year for Republicans nationwide. There's a decent chance 267 00:15:44.399 --> 00:15:47.039 that Republicans will lose the House, and one way to 268 00:15:47.080 --> 00:15:50.559 protect themselves about doing that is drawing more Republican seats 269 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:54.279 in Texas that could help help the Republicans maintain the 270 00:15:54.360 --> 00:15:55.440 national majority. 271 00:15:56.000 --> 00:15:58.440 And now, to be fair, congressional Republicans who enjoy their 272 00:15:58.480 --> 00:16:02.039 districts that are drawn, you know, to support their reelection 273 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:04.679 not thrilled by this. According to reporting, you know, we've 274 00:16:04.679 --> 00:16:07.440 heard that there's been some some real anxiety about this. 275 00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:09.120 There was a big question about whether or not Governor 276 00:16:09.159 --> 00:16:12.120 Greg Abbott would take this up in the special session. 277 00:16:13.919 --> 00:16:16.480 Yeah, I mean, it's you talked about how there's precedent 278 00:16:16.559 --> 00:16:19.480 for mid decade redistructing in Texas. That last time that, 279 00:16:19.519 --> 00:16:21.360 of course happened, was in two thousand and three. It 280 00:16:21.480 --> 00:16:23.960 was pushed by Tom Delay. The difference between then and 281 00:16:24.039 --> 00:16:26.360 now is what happened right before that two thousand and 282 00:16:26.360 --> 00:16:30.639 three redistructing was Republicans one control of the Texas House, 283 00:16:30.840 --> 00:16:33.759 which gave them more power to draw the lines as 284 00:16:33.799 --> 00:16:34.799 they saw fit. 285 00:16:34.720 --> 00:16:37.200 For the first time like in modern history. 286 00:16:37.559 --> 00:16:40.600 Right this time, the same people who drew the maps 287 00:16:40.600 --> 00:16:44.600 in twenty twenty one are in charge are in charge now, 288 00:16:44.720 --> 00:16:47.840 and so basically what they're being pushed to do is 289 00:16:47.879 --> 00:16:51.600 to change the maps that they chose for a reason, 290 00:16:51.679 --> 00:16:54.879 the reason that we sort of already described before incumbent protection. 291 00:16:55.039 --> 00:16:55.639 Long term. 292 00:16:55.799 --> 00:16:58.320 Of course, there have been some things that have changed, right. 293 00:16:59.080 --> 00:17:02.960 A lot of the growth in Texas has been as 294 00:17:03.120 --> 00:17:07.559 noted in communities of color in the suburbs. The most 295 00:17:07.559 --> 00:17:11.880 recent presidential election, a lot of those communities went a 296 00:17:11.880 --> 00:17:14.400 little bit to the right. They still many of them 297 00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:17.279 still voted Democratic, but maybe not in the same margins 298 00:17:17.279 --> 00:17:20.799 along the border, for example, which could possibly just the 299 00:17:20.839 --> 00:17:24.440 politics have changed a little bit. Right in twenty one, 300 00:17:24.720 --> 00:17:26.880 I think a lot of people were still thinking, right, 301 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:30.759 the demographic, the racial demographics in Texas are changing in 302 00:17:30.799 --> 00:17:33.720 a way, particularly with the Hispanic vote, that would seem 303 00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:36.880 to suggest that the Texas is trending in a blue direction. 304 00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:41.279 I think the twenty twenty four election maybe through some 305 00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:44.960 of that into question, particularly with the Hispanic vote, of 306 00:17:45.359 --> 00:17:47.720 maybe that's not the case. Maybe the Hispanic vote is 307 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:50.400 actually going to turn out to be more conservative, more rightly, 308 00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:55.079 more Republican than maybe people had thought in years past. 309 00:17:55.440 --> 00:17:57.720 Right, right, I mean, before we get into like the 310 00:17:57.839 --> 00:17:59.680 DOJ letter and all of that, Koreem, what do you 311 00:17:59.680 --> 00:18:02.759 make of this, just this push by the Trump administration 312 00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:05.759 to try to like get squeeze a few more, a 313 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:07.359 few more seats out of Texas. 314 00:18:07.880 --> 00:18:11.359 Yeah, it is in some ways. As I say, I 315 00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:14.880 think you're right about it being rare, but exceedingly so, 316 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:19.480 because right the story from twenty twenty twenty twenty one. Sorry, yes, 317 00:18:19.759 --> 00:18:23.720 the last time around, Sorry I've lost track a few 318 00:18:23.799 --> 00:18:27.680 years now, it was that Republicans had taken over, but 319 00:18:27.720 --> 00:18:30.400 the plan that they were undoing was a plan drawn 320 00:18:30.440 --> 00:18:33.640 by courts, and this is one, as you rightly point out, 321 00:18:34.039 --> 00:18:37.119 that was drawn by the very people who are actually 322 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:39.960 trying to redraw it now. Looking for the Trump administration 323 00:18:40.000 --> 00:18:43.200 to be asking them to do this, it definitely means 324 00:18:43.240 --> 00:18:47.160 that they see the risk. And it's kind of odd 325 00:18:47.240 --> 00:18:51.119 because if you're looking at this, I just did a 326 00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:55.000 rough tally of the members currently serving in Congress from Texas. 327 00:18:55.160 --> 00:18:57.160 You're about twenty four or so. The thirty eight members 328 00:18:57.160 --> 00:19:00.519 who are Republicans, more than half of them, close to 329 00:19:00.559 --> 00:19:03.039 like fifteen of them are in there at a most 330 00:19:03.079 --> 00:19:05.119 their second term of office. That means that they were 331 00:19:05.160 --> 00:19:09.039 the beneficiaries of the readon that was done last time around, 332 00:19:09.079 --> 00:19:12.160 and as you rightly point out, there's a real risk 333 00:19:12.200 --> 00:19:15.000 to those people if it get their districts jumbled and frankly, 334 00:19:15.039 --> 00:19:17.720 to get more seats anywhere, you're going to have to 335 00:19:17.799 --> 00:19:20.200 radically change a lot of lines. This isn't just a 336 00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:23.839 surgical adjustment here or there. And so for those people, 337 00:19:24.119 --> 00:19:26.720 you're asking them to appeal to an entirely different electorate 338 00:19:26.759 --> 00:19:29.640 then before, probably not with a lot of money, probably 339 00:19:29.640 --> 00:19:32.039 with the winds not flowing at their backs. So that's 340 00:19:32.039 --> 00:19:34.920 a real challenge. I think the bigger question for the 341 00:19:35.599 --> 00:19:38.839 question about why the administration is pushing this just now 342 00:19:39.319 --> 00:19:43.200 sort of raises a weird uh. I think possibility that 343 00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:46.119 if they think they've got to squeeze this much out 344 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:48.119 to get one or two seeds, do they think that 345 00:19:48.119 --> 00:19:50.519 they can operate for another two years of this term 346 00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:53.519 with just a majority in Congress of one or two seats. 347 00:19:53.599 --> 00:19:56.279 I mean, it's a big risk. And of course, even 348 00:19:56.319 --> 00:19:58.599 if they get what they want out of Texas, it's 349 00:19:58.640 --> 00:20:01.319 probably going to lead to some sort of lawsuit. And 350 00:20:01.400 --> 00:20:03.400 so then the question is is there going to be 351 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:05.160 some doubt in the one or two seats that are 352 00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:08.880 in the House of Representatives If you know this happens 353 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:11.759 nationwide where people are picking off seats hoping to kind 354 00:20:11.759 --> 00:20:14.839 of preserve the majority that they want. It's really I 355 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:18.839 think it's not the best way of forging national policy, 356 00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:22.720 but it may for them be their only way out 357 00:20:22.759 --> 00:20:25.119 of continuing the process that they have. And I guess 358 00:20:25.119 --> 00:20:27.799 said the other that they set forth in terms of policy. 359 00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:30.359 The only other thing I'd offer here is thinking about 360 00:20:30.759 --> 00:20:36.440 where the electorate is since R twenty twenty one January fifteen, 361 00:20:37.680 --> 00:20:41.599 or yeah, even more so since the last election. You know, 362 00:20:41.640 --> 00:20:43.480 we've had a lot of policies that a lot of 363 00:20:43.480 --> 00:20:46.680 people say that they weren't anticipating, even people who voted 364 00:20:46.720 --> 00:20:49.359 for their president. So I think the question if you're 365 00:20:49.400 --> 00:20:53.119 thinking from the state's perspective, how to craft a map 366 00:20:53.160 --> 00:20:55.440 that's going to perform the way that you do. You're 367 00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:58.119 five years out from the last census. You're also in 368 00:20:58.200 --> 00:21:01.799 a really volatile time about where voters are and just 369 00:21:01.839 --> 00:21:03.599 how they think about the president, how they think about 370 00:21:03.599 --> 00:21:07.759 the state leadership, etc. You're playing a big gamble. I 371 00:21:07.759 --> 00:21:09.960 can't remember if gambley is legal in Texas, but it's a. 372 00:21:09.880 --> 00:21:13.279 Real question very much is not famously. 373 00:21:12.880 --> 00:21:16.240 Not in Alabama either, But yeah. 374 00:21:15.799 --> 00:21:18.640 Well, okay, and you probably haven't seen this because it 375 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:21.880 was tweeted out by Jake Sherman right before we sat 376 00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:26.119 down to record. But President Donald Trump, according to Jake 377 00:21:26.119 --> 00:21:31.079 Sherman's reports, told Republicans on a call today House Republicans 378 00:21:31.400 --> 00:21:34.559 that the GOP will seek five new red seats in 379 00:21:34.599 --> 00:21:37.400 the midterm reistructing effort in Texas. Right now that the 380 00:21:37.480 --> 00:21:41.599 number is twenty five to thirteen. If they sought five 381 00:21:41.680 --> 00:21:45.359 new seats, that would be thirty to eight, which you know, 382 00:21:45.480 --> 00:21:48.400 I mean, Texas is a very red state. It is 383 00:21:48.440 --> 00:21:53.039 not that red of the state, firstly geographically exactly. I mean, 384 00:21:53.079 --> 00:21:56.599 that suggests to me that they would be taking a 385 00:21:56.920 --> 00:22:00.799 huge risk both politically and legally and trying to get 386 00:22:00.799 --> 00:22:02.039 that across well. 387 00:22:02.079 --> 00:22:04.799 And I think, like, I mean, to your point, Kareem, 388 00:22:04.880 --> 00:22:06.359 these are not there's not so much as like you 389 00:22:06.359 --> 00:22:08.839 can't do this so easily that you can say, well, 390 00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:11.799 we'll make this one person a little bit more vulnerable, 391 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:13.000 but make this person. 392 00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:13.079 Not as well. 393 00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:16.240 Like this is a wholesale redrawing that you're talking about 394 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:19.640 that could result in making I mean, could potentially. 395 00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:20.039 Be a house of cards. 396 00:22:20.079 --> 00:22:23.920 Right, you can get overconfident, you weaken everyone. And I mean, 397 00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:28.599 certainly you know Texas is a red state. But like 398 00:22:29.000 --> 00:22:33.000 the urban centers remain very blue. There are some limitations 399 00:22:33.000 --> 00:22:34.400 to how tightly you can draw this. 400 00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:37.400 Matt, Yeah, And I think it's just worth pointing out 401 00:22:37.440 --> 00:22:40.599