WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Here's your weather report.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's see we got partly flatty day day going up

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<v Speaker 2>to seventy six degrees overnight clear sky's fifty two Sunday,

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<v Speaker 2>tomorrow's seventy seven clear overnight fifty three, and on Thursday,

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<v Speaker 2>another Sunday day going up to eighty one.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now sixty degrees. Time for Chuck with traffic.

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<v Speaker 3>From the UC Health Triumphings Center with U see health

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<v Speaker 3>of future of care is happening now through clinical trials

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<v Speaker 3>and innovative treatments. Then give patients and chance for better outcomes.

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<v Speaker 3>Visit u sehealth dot com. Southbound seventy one continues to

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<v Speaker 3>run over a twenty minute delay between Field zero and

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<v Speaker 3>Red Bank, with an accident at the Reagan Highway on

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<v Speaker 3>the right hand side. Northbound seventy five continues close to

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<v Speaker 3>a twenty minute delay out of Florence into downtown. Chuck

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<v Speaker 3>ingramon fifty five krc the talk station.

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<v Speaker 2>Fast approaching eight thirty fifty fifth KRCD talk station. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>very happy Tuesday too. I'm back and I'm happy. If

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<v Speaker 2>you see on the rundown this morning what I got

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<v Speaker 2>in this morning, the return of Daniel Davis doing a

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<v Speaker 2>Daniel Davis deep dive here on the fifty five Krsity

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<v Speaker 2>Morning Show. I'm already to get a disadvantage, Daniel, because

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<v Speaker 2>apparently you can see me, but I'm looking at a

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<v Speaker 2>cartoon image of a guy behind a microphone, so I

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<v Speaker 2>have a disadvantage. But hello, and I'm waving to you

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<v Speaker 2>this morning. I hope you can see me. And yes,

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<v Speaker 2>oh there you are. Now you popped up and disappeared again,

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<v Speaker 2>so I think whenever you're talking, I get to see

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<v Speaker 2>you anyway. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. You can search

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<v Speaker 2>for him online and find his podcast and interviews and discussion.

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<v Speaker 2>Always an interesting conversation with him when he joins a

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<v Speaker 2>fifty five KRSSEE morning show and today and perfect timing

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<v Speaker 2>on this because I was really looking forward to talking

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<v Speaker 2>with you about the situation currently unfolding between Ukraine and Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine has now entered Russia and in fact, as of yesterday,

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<v Speaker 2>has blown up three bridges in the curse oblast, which

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<v Speaker 2>oblast is a word that describes a division or region

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<v Speaker 2>in Russia. So they're in curse. Now what does this mean?

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<v Speaker 2>And does this the blowing up of bridges? I know

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<v Speaker 2>they can replace them with Pontoon bridges on a moment's notice.

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<v Speaker 2>So does this really do anything or is this actually

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<v Speaker 2>a success story for Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it really depends on what Ukraine is trying to accomplish,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's a bit of a puzzler and a head scratcher.

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<v Speaker 4>And the story keeps changing, frankly, because we've had Zelenski

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<v Speaker 4>and since this thing unfolded, has said variously it's to

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<v Speaker 4>teach Russia a lesson so they have the pain of war.

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<v Speaker 4>He said it was to create a buffer zone. Apparently

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<v Speaker 4>yesterday they said it wanted exchange prisoners, they wanted to

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<v Speaker 4>improve negotiating positions, and those things are not mutually endorsement.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, they don't work together. So I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 4>what you're trying to do if you're trying to improve

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<v Speaker 4>negotiating position, but then you're losing in the East. And

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<v Speaker 4>that's the biggest issue here is that Ukraine they definitely

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<v Speaker 4>caught Russia with their pants down. That Russia did not

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<v Speaker 4>expect an occursion into their country. They had then border

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<v Speaker 4>units that were controlling the border because they just didn't

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<v Speaker 4>think Ukraine would do this, and so Ukraine again surprised

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<v Speaker 4>Russia by amassing a large number of troops, which they

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<v Speaker 4>deceived Russian to thinking they were actually going to be

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<v Speaker 4>defensive troops for a Russian incursion in the Sumi area,

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<v Speaker 4>which is not far from there, but it turned out

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<v Speaker 4>they didn't and they use those then to attack into Russia.

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<v Speaker 4>So now they've carved out this relatively large area, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's only three percent of the region of course, the

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<v Speaker 4>oblast you referred to. But the big problem is it's

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<v Speaker 4>come at the expense of what the Ukraine side is

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<v Speaker 4>trying to hold on to in the east, and the

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<v Speaker 4>Russian has not redeployed, according to most reports, at least

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<v Speaker 4>sizeable numbers from that area to try and stop the

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<v Speaker 4>Kurse area.

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<v Speaker 1>They've used other troops.

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<v Speaker 4>Meanwhile, they've continued, especially in a place called Pokrosk and Turetsk,

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<v Speaker 4>They've continued to press on and they have it withdrawn

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<v Speaker 4>their pressure now that Ukraine doesn't have a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>troops or equipment to defend that, so they're starting to

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<v Speaker 4>lose more.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm not sure this is going to work out

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<v Speaker 1>good for Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let me assist. Does this cause any supply chain

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<v Speaker 2>problems for the Russians. I mean, they got the troops

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<v Speaker 2>obviously in Ukraine and physical presence, they're gonna have to

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<v Speaker 2>hold the land that they've taken, which requires an ongoing

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<v Speaker 2>presence of troops. Correct me at any point if I'm

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<v Speaker 2>wrong on military strategy on this, But I mean, you

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<v Speaker 2>can roll through a city and say you took it

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<v Speaker 2>over and I grabbed their flag, But if you move out,

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<v Speaker 2>you're not there anymore. I kind of view that as

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<v Speaker 2>back in the hands of the Ukrainian So does this

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<v Speaker 2>thin out the available Russian troops to continue to advance,

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<v Speaker 2>and does it stop supply lines from being refilled and

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<v Speaker 2>supplies from being reaching the Russian troops.

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<v Speaker 4>Actually it works the opposite direction, really, and in the

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<v Speaker 4>disadvantage of Ukraine for nearly the same reasons you just mentioned.

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<v Speaker 4>It's one thing to make an occursion into a Russian territory,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's a very different thing to hold that terrain.

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<v Speaker 4>So if you make this big penetration, which they have,

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<v Speaker 4>and then here in four or five, six weeks, they

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<v Speaker 4>end up being pushed out, and because Russia just has

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<v Speaker 4>more forces up in that area, then I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 4>what they've gained. And the only saying that it appears

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of logistics, is that it's it is. There's

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<v Speaker 4>a through a city called Druze, but I think it's

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<v Speaker 4>called or Suja.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry. Suja. Is that the the.

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<v Speaker 4>Gas lines from Russia to Europe run through there, which

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<v Speaker 4>gives Ukraine control over them, although there's bypassed routes. But

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of supply for the rest of the war,

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<v Speaker 4>especially in the East, it's almost irrelevant. Doesn't even have

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<v Speaker 4>any that it comes from elsewhere in Russia, So those

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<v Speaker 4>supply lines are unchanged for Russia in the east, in

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<v Speaker 4>the Pokrowskin Touretsk area.

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<v Speaker 1>How are the Russians doing in terms of troops.

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<v Speaker 2>I know we've talked before about there's only a finite

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<v Speaker 2>number of human beings that are capable to fight, and

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<v Speaker 2>they've they're blowing through all the younger men. I presume

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<v Speaker 2>those are the casualties of war. And I hear the

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<v Speaker 2>Russians are running around looking at all the four corners

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<v Speaker 2>of the world trying to find Russian guys to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>conscript and join the military. They're not at risk of

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<v Speaker 2>running out of warm bodies, are they the Russians? No, No,

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<v Speaker 2>they're not at all.

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<v Speaker 4>Russia's going to do everything they can to get as

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<v Speaker 4>many volunteers as they can get, or that they can

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<v Speaker 4>scrape somewhere else without having to have a mobilization. That's

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<v Speaker 4>in their interest to do so, and they have done it.

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<v Speaker 4>They've been fairly successful, according to reports, anywhere from thirty

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<v Speaker 4>to forty thousand per month in any given month. But

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<v Speaker 4>obviously the much bigger issue is on the Ukrainian side,

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<v Speaker 4>which doesn't have anywhere near the manpower pool from which

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<v Speaker 4>to draw, and they are definitely in the fully coerced

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<v Speaker 4>to mobilization mode. And I don't know if you've been

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<v Speaker 4>able to see, but there is a lot of consternation

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<v Speaker 4>within Ukraine. And now some of the recruiters themselves are

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<v Speaker 4>being attacked by the people who feel that if they

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<v Speaker 4>come and grab them, it's basically a death sentence, and

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<v Speaker 4>so they don't want to go to the fight.

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<v Speaker 2>But once they get there, they are fighting. So I

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<v Speaker 2>do give them credit for that, but it is a

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<v Speaker 2>big issue, and they just don't.

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<v Speaker 1>Have enough troops to match Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, is this going to be just has this

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<v Speaker 2>come down to simple battle of attrition that it's a

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<v Speaker 2>foregone conclusion Russia can win.

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<v Speaker 1>That's exactly how I view it.

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<v Speaker 4>Is a foregone conclusion, because whether you talk about manpower, missiles,

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<v Speaker 4>artillery shells, the ability to create weapons to to get them.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, Russia has almost four times more than the

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<v Speaker 4>cumulative West has. All of together, we can't match what

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<v Speaker 4>Russia is making with North Korea and Iran is their

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<v Speaker 4>allies and what they can produce domestically. And then you

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<v Speaker 4>add somewhere between twelve to fifteen million more men from

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<v Speaker 4>which to draw for potential troops, and you just see

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<v Speaker 4>that there is no rational path for Ukraine to even

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<v Speaker 4>hold the line, much less to ever win.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, what of our members of Congress who want to

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<v Speaker 2>continue to throw billions and billions of dollars If it's

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<v Speaker 2>a foregone conclusion. And I have to assume that you

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<v Speaker 2>know you obviously you served America honorably and our knowledge

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<v Speaker 2>what about matters military and strategy. We have to have

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<v Speaker 2>similarly versed folks within America's military that can see and

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps have reached the same conclusion that you have. This

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<v Speaker 2>is a foregone conclusion about electric that Russia is most

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<v Speaker 2>certainly going to win if they just stick it out

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<v Speaker 2>long enough. Is that a wake up call to people

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<v Speaker 2>who keep thinking that somehow Ukraine is going to prevail

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<v Speaker 2>on this.

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<v Speaker 1>I just I don't see there's no wake up call coming.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I had hoped that that would be the

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<v Speaker 2>case after last year's offensive. The Ukrainian offensive in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty three utterly failed, I mean to even break through

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<v Speaker 2>the first of five defensive lines of Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought that would be the wake up call. It wasn't.

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<v Speaker 4>And then you see Lindsey Graham who continue to embarrass

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<v Speaker 4>himself in our country by cheerleading what the Ukraine's doing

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<v Speaker 4>here because he's going to quote kick you Putin's ass

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<v Speaker 4>and all this kind of stuff, talking like a schoolyard

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<v Speaker 4>kid with no concept at all of the fundamentals involved

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<v Speaker 4>here in how by continuing to do that, all you're

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<v Speaker 4>going to do is get more Ukrainian men killed and

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<v Speaker 4>probably lose even more territory. There are many calls in

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<v Speaker 4>Russia right now to say we don't want to just

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<v Speaker 4>take the four old blast that we have illegally annexed.

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<v Speaker 4>They want the whole country now. And whether that's going

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<v Speaker 4>to be possible or not, it remains to be seen.

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<v Speaker 1>It has to be done.

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<v Speaker 4>But Russia does have the manpower and the equipment to

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<v Speaker 4>make good on it, even if it takes another year

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<v Speaker 4>or two or three or whatever. They seem willing to

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<v Speaker 4>pay that price. And I just don't think this is

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<v Speaker 4>going to work out good. And I don't want people

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<v Speaker 4>to forget what people like Lindsey Graham, who are blind

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<v Speaker 4>to these realities when.

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<v Speaker 1>They're cheerleading this going on.

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<v Speaker 4>When we could have a negotiated settlement so Ukraine could

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<v Speaker 4>keep land, that's not happening. And that's why I'm so

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<v Speaker 4>upset when I hear comments like Lindsay Graham's.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and that you anticipated where I wanted to go,

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<v Speaker 2>which is okay, fine. Maybe Ukraine did this to show that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Russia does have some vulnerabilities. They couldn't hold

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<v Speaker 2>their own line, but maybe this opens up an opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>to discuss peace on and negotiates some sort of resolution.

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<v Speaker 2>I haven't heard those words really talked about with any

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<v Speaker 2>level of seriousness now for quite some time.

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<v Speaker 4>Well see now that's why I say at the open

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<v Speaker 4>of your show here that there's some conflicting images and

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<v Speaker 4>words coming out of Zelensky because his chief negotiator I'm sorry,

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<v Speaker 4>Chief aid Yermak said, and I guess three days ago

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<v Speaker 4>that this was to improve our negotiating position, so Russia

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<v Speaker 4>can has to negotiate from a position from our strength,

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<v Speaker 4>from our side, so that they know. Which is insane

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<v Speaker 4>that because Russia got poked in the in the chest

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<v Speaker 4>with this three percent of one oh bleasted, suddenly after

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<v Speaker 4>two years are going to quit with all these advantages.

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<v Speaker 1>That's absurd, But that's one of the things they're saying.

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<v Speaker 4>But there's no evidence that they're going to actually do

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<v Speaker 4>that to have a negotiate seldom because they could do

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<v Speaker 4>it right now. They don't need to have negotiation Selim

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<v Speaker 4>because Putin has been saying from the beginning he's willing

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<v Speaker 4>to do that. But every day you delay Brian that

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<v Speaker 4>he is less and less willing to negotiate, and may

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<v Speaker 4>say I'm just going to solve this on the battlefield.

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<v Speaker 2>That's my biggest worry for the people in Ukraine. Understood,

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<v Speaker 2>And I just have to ask this question before we

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<v Speaker 2>part company. Daniel Davis search from online Daniel davisteep dive.

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<v Speaker 2>You'd be glad you did. What do we learn from this?

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<v Speaker 2>We have one of the largest militaries in the entire planet.

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<v Speaker 2>The Russians and you know, obviously well stocked with supplies

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<v Speaker 2>from you know, rifles to nuclear way them. They have

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<v Speaker 2>a large military, enough men you just mentioned, they have

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<v Speaker 2>sufficient people to continue to wage this war. The land

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<v Speaker 2>mass that we're talking about here, we're not talking about

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<v Speaker 2>a country the size of the United States or the

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<v Speaker 2>size of China. I mean, this is a comparatively small

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<v Speaker 2>chunk of land.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet here we are, how many years after the.

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<v Speaker 2>Invasion, that there's still a fight going on, that this,

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<v Speaker 2>this this small swath of the globe has not yet

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<v Speaker 2>been overrun by the one of the world's largest, most

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<v Speaker 2>powerful militaries.

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<v Speaker 1>I just kind of scratched my head over that. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know why.

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<v Speaker 2>It takes me over to a Feedo Castro fighting Batista

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<v Speaker 2>from the mountains. You have an army versus some ragtag

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<v Speaker 2>guys with an attitude, the ragtag guys in the attitude one.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, well, yeah, that's that certainly has been the case.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, you could even go to Taliban in Afghanistan,

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<v Speaker 4>it's even more appropriate analogy.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is different.

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<v Speaker 4>This is not just insurgents running around in the in

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<v Speaker 4>the jungles or in the mountains of Afghanistan. But it's

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<v Speaker 4>an army, and armies have different fundamentals, and the fundamentals

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<v Speaker 4>just don't make it work out for the little guy

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<v Speaker 4>over time. It's a big question is why Russia hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>used its power in larger ways up to this point.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a head scratcher to me because I don't see

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<v Speaker 4>an easy answer.

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<v Speaker 1>But they have it, and they.

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<v Speaker 4>Are methodically employing it, and even though it takes longer

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<v Speaker 4>than we would think it should, it is still happening

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<v Speaker 4>fair enough.

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<v Speaker 2>Appreciate your thoughtful analysis as always, Daniel Davis search from

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<v Speaker 2>online again Daniel Davis, Steve Dive. This podcast to be

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<v Speaker 2>on my page fifty five cars dot com until next week, sir,

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<v Speaker 2>have a great week.

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<v Speaker 1>Great see you next time.

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<v Speaker 1>Biting his dead set to get as much done as