WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:52.240 I won't make some Glorio. 2 00:00:33.240 --> 00:00:37.840 Oh yeah, hello, Falmoryhome. 3 00:00:36.439 --> 00:00:41.079 Podcast, lap Podcast, sound Clouds, Fringer, What Live Place with 4 00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:46.960 Live ex Instagram Live reported anyway, you can't afford it, man, 5 00:00:47.320 --> 00:00:50.560 We thank you, just gloriole for tuning in this week. 6 00:00:51.159 --> 00:01:02.600 I'm rap' ride both steps. Here we go week number 7 00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:07.079 eleven in the NFL, and since the government is finally 8 00:01:07.480 --> 00:01:10.760 back open, I am going to petition them to subsidize 9 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:13.879 my NFL record this season it is it is not 10 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:17.319 doing as hot as I would like. Both he was, 11 00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:20.000 I have dug myself a hole so deep that even 12 00:01:20.040 --> 00:01:23.280 a couple of legals would be forced to say, that's 13 00:01:23.319 --> 00:01:27.959 a pretty good hole. Essay, Both suppose he was, Let's 14 00:01:28.040 --> 00:01:30.000 find some winners and give me out of here. Hit 15 00:01:30.519 --> 00:01:35.000 that man. Whether you are here for the funny, it's 16 00:01:35.000 --> 00:01:35.959 a question for fun. 17 00:01:36.079 --> 00:01:38.640 I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have funny. We're 18 00:01:38.680 --> 00:01:40.879 all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the classic 19 00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:44.319 surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling symphony 20 00:01:44.400 --> 00:01:45.079 due to out. 21 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:47.640 Of your assholes. Are you are here for the money? 22 00:01:47.640 --> 00:01:49.439 Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil. 23 00:01:49.560 --> 00:01:52.519 Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. 24 00:01:52.599 --> 00:01:54.400 Look at the fucking smile on my face. 25 00:01:54.879 --> 00:01:57.599 Here to hear, baby, you have come to the right place. 26 00:01:57.959 --> 00:02:01.000 Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What 27 00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:04.560 a stupid question that has What a stupid question? 28 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:08.240 You ask a lot of stupid questions. 29 00:02:08.479 --> 00:02:12.680 My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you 30 00:02:12.960 --> 00:02:16.159 like money? I'm a big fan of money. I like it, 31 00:02:16.560 --> 00:02:17.199 I use it. 32 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:19.639 I have a little I keep it in a jar 33 00:02:19.719 --> 00:02:20.879 on top of my refrigerator. 34 00:02:21.159 --> 00:02:23.199 I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where 35 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:26.039 you come in. That's right, Adam Center, That's exactly where 36 00:02:26.080 --> 00:02:29.159 we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out 37 00:02:29.199 --> 00:02:33.199 all the winning opportunities. That's patreon dot com, slash bet 38 00:02:33.319 --> 00:02:37.280 underscore FGH. Become our football partners for life so that 39 00:02:37.319 --> 00:02:40.560 you can bet football the right way, the winning way, 40 00:02:40.800 --> 00:02:48.960 the bet FGH way. And as always here on the 41 00:02:49.080 --> 00:02:53.719 sports patio, we got the TV's glowing, we got the 42 00:02:53.719 --> 00:02:56.400 bear heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's 43 00:02:56.520 --> 00:03:01.639 most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell 44 00:03:01.680 --> 00:03:08.919 the people all about your horrible, disgusting cow be choice 45 00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:09.639 of the week. 46 00:03:14.039 --> 00:03:14.840 I still drunk. 47 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:16.000 I feel right, don. 48 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:19.520 Well, thank youy much, sairs search and not. I am 49 00:03:19.599 --> 00:03:22.719 drinking a Wrecked Sea Party by T F Brewing in 50 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:26.039 Salt Out of Salt Lake City, three out of five stars. 51 00:03:26.120 --> 00:03:29.599 Very solid, hazy, pale l It's also very apropos that 52 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:31.639 I'm drinking. It's not long harm because did you know 53 00:03:32.560 --> 00:03:37.199 then on this day in eighteen fifty one, Herman Melville 54 00:03:37.360 --> 00:03:41.319 published Moby Dick, which, by the way, was Longhorn's nickname 55 00:03:41.319 --> 00:03:42.879 in high school because he was always cruise in the 56 00:03:42.919 --> 00:03:45.039 lake hunting for those big old girls. 57 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:45.280 Boy. 58 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:48.520 And although this book is clearly a staple of American 59 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:51.599 literature now, at the time it released it was a flaw, 60 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:54.240 so much so that Herman had to give up on 61 00:03:54.280 --> 00:03:56.560 being a writer, moved back to New York in eighteen 62 00:03:56.639 --> 00:03:59.120 sixty five, and become a customs inspector for the next 63 00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:02.759 twenty fucking years. They eventually died in eighteen ninety one, 64 00:04:03.639 --> 00:04:05.759 and his book wouldn't get famous in the nineteen twenties. 65 00:04:06.280 --> 00:04:08.400 Oh that is sad. I can't help but wonder, long 66 00:04:08.479 --> 00:04:12.400 Horn if his book actually would have been famous in 67 00:04:12.439 --> 00:04:16.839 his lifetime, if his name wasn't fucking herman. Maybe if 68 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:18.160 he would have come up with a concept of the 69 00:04:18.199 --> 00:04:21.160 pen name, he'd been rich beyond his bottle of streams. 70 00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:25.279 Who knows, but rest of peace, Herman, God bless all 71 00:04:25.279 --> 00:04:26.920 those people in the world who are currently trying to 72 00:04:26.920 --> 00:04:31.240 catch your own personal white well in life or trying 73 00:04:31.240 --> 00:04:33.319 to plug a fatty without your friends catching either way, 74 00:04:33.959 --> 00:04:34.399 I just. 75 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:38.319 Think it's I was always thinking, it's it just a travesty. 76 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:43.000 Whenever you have a floppy movie dick, that's just it's 77 00:04:43.759 --> 00:04:46.279 if your movie dick flops, it's never a good thing. 78 00:04:46.399 --> 00:04:48.240 So it's it's too bad for that guy. 79 00:04:49.399 --> 00:04:52.680 Oh RF herman RIFP All right, boys, girls, to get 80 00:04:52.680 --> 00:04:54.759 the podcast now. I'll go over every wind coming in 81 00:04:54.839 --> 00:04:57.000 the NFL in the ads and not enough of course, 82 00:04:57.120 --> 00:04:59.720 of course, get you paid with those free picks like 83 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:02.079 we always do, but right now we gotta get paid 84 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:04.720 to do that. It's this week's sponsor. Oh it's Texas 85 00:05:04.839 --> 00:05:08.720 Telehealth dot Com. Cold and flu seasons coming, boys and girls. 86 00:05:09.000 --> 00:05:11.399 A lot of sickness going around, a lot of sickness 87 00:05:11.480 --> 00:05:12.160 going round right now. 88 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:16.560 Feel it. All the aids, all the syphiliss everything you need, 89 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:18.560 a doctor, you don't have to go and drive to 90 00:05:18.600 --> 00:05:20.240 a doctor. All you gotta do is get on texta 91 00:05:20.279 --> 00:05:23.759 teile dot com log on, get yourself an appointment. 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So 102 00:05:50.600 --> 00:05:52.240 whether you got a peenis turned green, a little sumit 103 00:05:52.279 --> 00:05:53.759 size around your thighs, yellow shit come out. You know 104 00:05:53.759 --> 00:05:55.480 who's longs than I was. Go to Texas Telehealth dot 105 00:05:55.480 --> 00:05:57.600 com right now and be sure to tell then that 106 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:01.800 FG eight sent you. That is Texas Elie health dot 107 00:06:01.839 --> 00:06:09.319 com for all of your medical needs. 108 00:06:12.759 --> 00:06:18.600 Please and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all agents. 109 00:06:24.600 --> 00:06:26.920 Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. 110 00:06:27.240 --> 00:06:29.600 God, what do you think is happening right now? 111 00:06:29.680 --> 00:06:31.639 What's happening? Excuse me? 112 00:06:31.720 --> 00:06:34.000 What is happening here? What is happening? 113 00:06:34.120 --> 00:06:35.680 What the fuck just happened? 114 00:06:35.959 --> 00:06:37.639 Oh, you know what's happening. 115 00:06:37.839 --> 00:06:40.360 It's time for all those wins coming in the air 116 00:06:40.439 --> 00:06:49.240 to night. Member, all right, wasn't girls? It is time 117 00:06:49.319 --> 00:06:51.439 to get into all those wins in the air to nights. 118 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:54.000 What's happening right now? Actually, this old Domini is whipping 119 00:06:54.040 --> 00:06:56.240 the ship on Detroit, ohd is becoming a little bit 120 00:06:56.240 --> 00:06:59.480 of a wagon. Boys and girls. Pay attention, Pay attention. 121 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:02.399 That was the minus nine and a half line. 122 00:07:02.600 --> 00:07:05.759 Yeah, it's twenty six nothing, so I think they might cover. 123 00:07:05.920 --> 00:07:08.319 I think they got that one, all right. 124 00:07:08.360 --> 00:07:10.319 But we're here to talk to some NFL and to 125 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:15.519 do that, Oh, we gotta start over in Espanol. Hey, mates, 126 00:07:17.079 --> 00:07:21.759 good a mates, I loi Espanol enis diz menistartis venis 127 00:07:21.839 --> 00:07:25.160 notchez dondez. Let's diple teca all that shit. 128 00:07:25.879 --> 00:07:28.079 They got some pretty good holes over there, I say. 129 00:07:29.000 --> 00:07:35.120 Yeah, they got some fucking lordie good lord. Uh. There 130 00:07:35.199 --> 00:07:36.920 might be some distractions going on with the players, but 131 00:07:36.959 --> 00:07:40.199 we got those Miami Dolphins traveling over there. Hosting those 132 00:07:40.959 --> 00:07:44.920 Washington fucking dead Skins. This line Miami two and a 133 00:07:45.000 --> 00:07:48.600 half heavily juiced across the board. It is heading towards 134 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:51.279 three longhorns. So what do you got on this one? 135 00:07:51.439 --> 00:07:53.639 Yeah? I think if I mean, I'm gonna be on Miami, 136 00:07:53.680 --> 00:07:55.639 grab this before he gets the three. Like I said, 137 00:07:55.920 --> 00:07:57.800 I agree, I think it's going to three for sure. 138 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:00.920 The handicap for me on this one is, well, first 139 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:03.040 of all, you got some conflicting things. I'll start with that. 140 00:08:03.240 --> 00:08:05.040 You got two on the road, which is never where 141 00:08:05.040 --> 00:08:06.920 you want to be, but that gets thrown out for 142 00:08:07.079 --> 00:08:08.680 me and this one because they're both on the road. 143 00:08:08.680 --> 00:08:11.360 It's a neutral site, so it's a little bit too 144 00:08:11.399 --> 00:08:12.600 is a favorite, is what I meant to say if 145 00:08:12.600 --> 00:08:14.639 I didn't say that. So that's never where you want 146 00:08:14.639 --> 00:08:16.800 to be. But like I said, it's the neutral site. 147 00:08:16.839 --> 00:08:18.360 So it's kind of a real game for both of them. 148 00:08:18.439 --> 00:08:20.680 Not kind of it, it is, but this is all 149 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:24.199 about them, and it's funny you call them. You're you're 150 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:26.480 calling the dead Skins, which which that's not a new 151 00:08:26.519 --> 00:08:28.680 nick name. They've been dead Skins on and off for 152 00:08:28.759 --> 00:08:33.360 quite a long time. But but it's very afropole now 153 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:35.840 because they are literally one of the most hurt teams 154 00:08:35.840 --> 00:08:38.639 in the NFL, along with one of their best defensive 155 00:08:38.639 --> 00:08:42.559 players being suspended for punching a guy in twenty twenty five. 156 00:08:42.600 --> 00:08:45.279 We've got we've got people just out here punching people 157 00:08:45.360 --> 00:08:46.000 in the NFL. 158 00:08:46.480 --> 00:08:48.639 It was a good punch, though, Oh. 159 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:52.120 I mean the fact that heal, I mean, that's salt brother, Like, 160 00:08:52.200 --> 00:08:53.840 you could have got it. You could have gone to 161 00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:56.399 jail for that. If that was in the street. I'm 162 00:08:56.440 --> 00:08:58.440 not even kidding. If that was on like this, a 163 00:08:58.519 --> 00:09:03.000 random guy like that, you're going to jail. Yeah, So like, 164 00:09:03.279 --> 00:09:07.679 uh he got a game, Uh fine, whatever. But Trey 165 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:10.799 Amos there, their cornerback, I think second round maybe that 166 00:09:10.840 --> 00:09:13.639 maybe even the first round cornerback they drafted an ole miss. 167 00:09:13.799 --> 00:09:16.039 He's hurt. He was giving them something. I mean, this 168 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:17.840 is a dead defense. But at least at least you're 169 00:09:17.879 --> 00:09:19.840 getting something out of out of a good young player. 170 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:23.039 Of course, McLaurin and you know, go down the list 171 00:09:23.120 --> 00:09:27.360 of Armstrong, the defensive end they got from the Cowboys. 172 00:09:27.480 --> 00:09:30.159 These are not great players, mcloran is. But but these 173 00:09:30.159 --> 00:09:32.320 other players are not great players. But when you're already 174 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:34.159 a bad team and you're and you're this hurt and 175 00:09:34.159 --> 00:09:39.639 you're going to literally I know, I know well Daniels 176 00:09:39.639 --> 00:09:42.679 when he's helping us, so yeah, yeah. So when I 177 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:46.039 look at this game, I literally like it's wording me 178 00:09:46.120 --> 00:09:47.559 that the line stayed at two and a half and 179 00:09:47.559 --> 00:09:49.279 it hasn't ticked a three yet, because to me, this 180 00:09:49.320 --> 00:09:52.559 should be and it's gotta be just because the Dolphins 181 00:09:52.600 --> 00:09:54.399 are so bad and the narrative on them is so bad, 182 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:57.440 which we've capitalized on this season because they're a bad team. 183 00:09:57.879 --> 00:09:59.440 But you got to pick your spots with them. And 184 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:03.360 of course last week I had the the infamous call 185 00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:06.720 against the Buffalo Bills, and that's. 186 00:10:06.679 --> 00:10:09.279 I think that's the thing, is like them winning that 187 00:10:09.440 --> 00:10:13.720 game to worry because you know it's all sharp when 188 00:10:13.799 --> 00:10:16.200 he comes in early and anyone stars, like we know 189 00:10:16.360 --> 00:10:18.159 better than the better on a shitty team coming off 190 00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:18.519 a big. 191 00:10:18.759 --> 00:10:21.399 Win like that, Like that's right, right, And I think 192 00:10:21.440 --> 00:10:23.720 the market is saying that, and it's what that's why 193 00:10:23.759 --> 00:10:27.360 it's holding. But if it goes to three and even 194 00:10:27.399 --> 00:10:29.600 comes off of three on the other side, that's about 195 00:10:29.600 --> 00:10:32.679 as big as a movement at the market's going to signify. 196 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:35.840 Going through the key number of three. We'll see if 197 00:10:35.879 --> 00:10:39.519 it actually does that. But the fact that we all 198 00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:41.519 know that the Dolphins are going nowhere this year, but 199 00:10:41.600 --> 00:10:43.879 the fact that they that they told the coach you're 200 00:10:43.919 --> 00:10:47.080 not you're not fired. So that's a little bit for 201 00:10:47.279 --> 00:10:48.879 for a team that's not going where it has nothing 202 00:10:48.919 --> 00:10:51.639 to lose, and your offensive minded coach, you've got a 203 00:10:51.679 --> 00:10:53.679 little bit of freedom there, just kind of like fuck it, 204 00:10:53.799 --> 00:10:56.159 let's just let's just go out, go down swinging to us. 205 00:10:56.200 --> 00:10:58.519 Got to know that he has a chance to This 206 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:01.720 might be his last time starting in Miami. Maybe not. 207 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:03.600 Maybe he'll be back next year. Maybe the contract is 208 00:11:03.639 --> 00:11:07.960 too good, definitely is a long time. Well, we'll see, 209 00:11:08.039 --> 00:11:09.639 but they maybe they'll play there again next year. But 210 00:11:10.279 --> 00:11:12.960 point being, they've got nothing to lose. They're playing a 211 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:17.360 team that's dead and hurt and going the wrong way fast. 212 00:11:17.639 --> 00:11:22.440 The coach Dan Quinn is taking over defensive play calling duties. 213 00:11:23.759 --> 00:11:29.399 You know, I don't think it is, but that that 214 00:11:29.759 --> 00:11:32.080 one thing does worry me because sometimes you can get 215 00:11:32.120 --> 00:11:35.159 that one game bump of a like let me let 216 00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:37.399 me just ride the troops and fire it up. But 217 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:40.039 but I just don't think I don't see. I don't 218 00:11:40.039 --> 00:11:42.639 see the players to match up with the speed and 219 00:11:42.759 --> 00:11:45.639 the scheme that's gonna come at them this week. And 220 00:11:45.720 --> 00:11:48.000 what's the drive to try hard? I don't know. I 221 00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:50.679 don't see the drive to try hard. So I love 222 00:11:50.759 --> 00:11:52.919 Miami at the two and a half. Get them before 223 00:11:52.960 --> 00:11:54.519 it goes to three. If you like him, if you 224 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:57.159 disagree completely, first of all, you can comment on the 225 00:11:57.200 --> 00:11:59.639 comments section tell me I'm an idiot, But then just 226 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:01.799 wait because it's going to three. So if he disagreed, 227 00:12:01.799 --> 00:12:04.440 there's literally no reason to grab the two and a half. 228 00:12:04.480 --> 00:12:06.639 Now just wait till it takes a three. Grab the reskin. 229 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:10.080 Most evens will call you an idiot, and then he'll 230 00:12:10.120 --> 00:12:11.879 drop it. He'll put a drop on you, and then 231 00:12:11.960 --> 00:12:13.600 that's what we'll be at, because I'll be on Miami, 232 00:12:15.159 --> 00:12:15.440 all right. 233 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:19.679 Uh No, So I was literally was about to put 234 00:12:19.720 --> 00:12:24.240 this out at Patreon, and I don't know why I haven't. 235 00:12:24.919 --> 00:12:27.600 I can't explain it because of this sour taste of 236 00:12:27.720 --> 00:12:30.440 my It's it's who wants to bet this bat of 237 00:12:30.480 --> 00:12:31.799 a team as a favorite? 238 00:12:32.320 --> 00:12:37.519 It smells like something smells rotten. It smells like too 239 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:41.240 much of a gift. Two and a half a bad team, yes, 240 00:12:41.480 --> 00:12:44.720 but versus a team that's even worse and not quitting 241 00:12:44.960 --> 00:12:47.080 because the Restlings haven't quit. They're just that bad. The 242 00:12:47.120 --> 00:12:50.080 they are just that bad. I mean they teams that 243 00:12:50.240 --> 00:12:53.519 quit don't punch people, right, You don't get suspended for 244 00:12:53.600 --> 00:12:56.519 punching somebody. And he wasn't the only punched of his throne, 245 00:12:56.559 --> 00:12:58.679 by the way, there were There could have been several 246 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:00.759 Reskins suspended last week. There was a bunch of like 247 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:03.240 feisty shit in that game, even though. 248 00:13:03.159 --> 00:13:05.440 They get in their ass with I wasn't aware that 249 00:13:05.519 --> 00:13:07.840 the Redskins were a bunch of punchers. 250 00:13:08.600 --> 00:13:11.840 I did not know that there are punchers. Now. The 251 00:13:11.919 --> 00:13:13.840 other thing that I went ahead and graded this game 252 00:13:14.000 --> 00:13:16.080 against my better judgment, but I did. If I wouldn't 253 00:13:16.080 --> 00:13:19.320 have graded, I would already bet Miami. But I did. Look, 254 00:13:19.320 --> 00:13:22.080 two is gonna have a good game, and but they're 255 00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:24.600 running game. Believe it or not, it doesn't grade out 256 00:13:24.600 --> 00:13:27.639 that well. Mariota grades out, he gains a point, and 257 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:30.679 the Reskins running game grades a point against this Miami defense. However, 258 00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:34.200 here's the biggest thing to support your play, and I 259 00:13:34.279 --> 00:13:36.440 have still might end up in Miami, even though it 260 00:13:36.559 --> 00:13:38.759 stinks to high heaven. But I did pull this trends. 261 00:13:38.759 --> 00:13:41.200 It's twenty twenty one going into the by which both 262 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:42.600 these things are going to the buy. By the way, 263 00:13:43.080 --> 00:13:44.759 but if you're on a neutral site, which we've had 264 00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:47.120 eight games now since we've had these new we've had 265 00:13:47.159 --> 00:13:49.320 these neutral sites, and generally Yard going to the buy 266 00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:53.360 off these they're the favorite seven to one, straight up 267 00:13:53.759 --> 00:13:57.840 seven and one ATS. So if you're going to the 268 00:13:57.879 --> 00:14:00.799 buy and you're the favorite eight seven point five and 269 00:14:00.840 --> 00:14:02.960 not only seven to one ATS long Horner average line 270 00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:04.600 of three point two, which right where we think this 271 00:14:04.720 --> 00:14:06.799 is gonna settle between three and three and a half, 272 00:14:07.559 --> 00:14:10.159 covering by three point eight points per game, you're winning 273 00:14:10.200 --> 00:14:11.720 this game by touchdown on average. 274 00:14:12.679 --> 00:14:14.840 That's gotta be a just that I mean, that has 275 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:16.840 to be a deciding factor. That's gotta be the thing 276 00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:19.799 that pushes you. Like we all we all love trends, 277 00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:24.559 but for me, trends are like a final decider, like it. 278 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:26.559 Has to make sense, it has to make sense, it 279 00:14:26.639 --> 00:14:29.519 has to be situational. Other side of that, if you're 280 00:14:29.559 --> 00:14:31.039 going into the buy, which the Redskins are on a 281 00:14:31.120 --> 00:14:34.279 neutral site, and you're the dog four and five ATS 282 00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:37.039 forty four point four percent. It's not dead on Amazon 283 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.440 two point eight good, yes, currently right now losing the 284 00:14:41.480 --> 00:14:45.679 game by two point six points. So, I mean, you know, 285 00:14:46.360 --> 00:14:48.399 that's it's a little bit of kind of. 286 00:14:48.399 --> 00:14:50.559 A glad to hear you agree with me on the 287 00:14:50.600 --> 00:14:52.480 Miami Dolphins. So it's quit being a pussy and just 288 00:14:52.519 --> 00:14:53.960 put them in your fucking premium picks. 289 00:14:54.480 --> 00:14:57.440 I can definitely not bet the Redskins zero zero zero 290 00:14:57.720 --> 00:14:59.960 zero zero upon zero chance that I could bet three, 291 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:00.840 so I will not. 292 00:15:00.960 --> 00:15:03.480 Who calls it there? He can't call them the Redskins. 293 00:15:03.559 --> 00:15:06.759 It's it's the government's back open. You can't do that. 294 00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:11.159 Was the Redskins. If you don't call them the Redskins, 295 00:15:11.200 --> 00:15:12.840 I'm taking the team away. I'm taking it away. 296 00:15:14.720 --> 00:15:16.240 Trump Stadium, it's coming. 297 00:15:17.000 --> 00:15:19.200 Yeah, he wants it. He wants it bad. All right, 298 00:15:19.279 --> 00:15:23.200 Let's move on to those hot Atlanta Falcons. They're hosting 299 00:15:23.200 --> 00:15:29.240 those Coralina Panthers. Woo woof. Coming off that loss, you 300 00:15:29.360 --> 00:15:31.080 talk about the spot that you generally do want to 301 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:34.000 back a team. If you're ever going to back a team, 302 00:15:34.519 --> 00:15:36.080 it's gotta be the Panthers. In this one, I think 303 00:15:36.080 --> 00:15:39.440 we're sitting at three and a half currently yep. So 304 00:15:39.519 --> 00:15:40.840 it's been three a open, three and a half. It's 305 00:15:40.840 --> 00:15:42.879 been three and a half. Now money coming in on Carolina. 306 00:15:43.480 --> 00:15:46.200 I'm expecting this line to get probably down to three 307 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:48.240 closet of the game day long horn on this one. 308 00:15:48.600 --> 00:15:51.559 Yeah, and I totally forgot to write down all of 309 00:15:51.639 --> 00:15:53.799 my danger zones and and all that stuff. But this 310 00:15:54.080 --> 00:15:55.679 is get get the stimes right because this is the 311 00:15:55.720 --> 00:15:57.240 big day. Because it's three and a half. That counts 312 00:15:57.279 --> 00:15:59.039 with the big day, So this is the big day. 313 00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:02.879 I'll slow down. This is the moby Dick, big dick, 314 00:16:03.080 --> 00:16:08.759 floppy movie dick pick of the week. 315 00:16:12.200 --> 00:16:15.759 Oh we have my deal. 316 00:16:18.039 --> 00:16:22.639 I'm gonna put my dick in. I feel that as 317 00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:25.919 much as I could. That's what he said. So listen 318 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:29.600 the last time, the last time, he's like, I love 319 00:16:29.679 --> 00:16:32.159 Carolina so much in this and and and and by 320 00:16:32.200 --> 00:16:34.080 the way, give me two units on the three and 321 00:16:34.120 --> 00:16:36.559 a half and at one unit on the money line 322 00:16:36.679 --> 00:16:40.360 on this one. Oh god, we don't even start how 323 00:16:40.399 --> 00:16:42.240 much I like this game. I mean, first of all, 324 00:16:42.360 --> 00:16:45.440 there might be just a pure matchup issue here because 325 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:47.279 the last time he's too taught. 326 00:16:47.279 --> 00:16:50.120 You're saying, where, don't even start how much I know 327 00:16:51.679 --> 00:16:53.679 that marink up a little bit. 328 00:16:53.879 --> 00:16:57.799 Listen, we've been doing this a long time. We've been 329 00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:01.840 doing this a long time. The hardest, ugliest ones are 330 00:17:01.919 --> 00:17:06.000 the ones that's where you gotta go hard. Yeah, I 331 00:17:06.079 --> 00:17:07.720 know it's gonna I can tell what kind of podcast 332 00:17:07.799 --> 00:17:12.319 is gonna be already from Trump thrum jump blowout. Last 333 00:17:12.359 --> 00:17:16.240 time these two teams played, Carolina went or Atlanta went 334 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:19.039 to Carolina and just got fucking shit stomped. 335 00:17:19.039 --> 00:17:19.200 It was. 336 00:17:19.359 --> 00:17:21.759 It wasn't a thirty or nothing. I think so it 337 00:17:22.279 --> 00:17:24.519 ulous now that that happens in the NFL, and that 338 00:17:24.640 --> 00:17:28.119 might not signify anything at all. It's a one game sample, 339 00:17:29.079 --> 00:17:32.960 or it could signify one of these weird, just quirky 340 00:17:33.079 --> 00:17:36.319 matchup things where you just don't match up well with 341 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:39.880 this team at all. And by the way, uh, Carolina 342 00:17:39.920 --> 00:17:42.400 is the better team. They're five and five overall, Atlanta's 343 00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:44.640 three and six. So it's not like, well, you know 344 00:17:44.799 --> 00:17:46.720 it's there, you know they're the better team and they 345 00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:49.400 has had a bad game in in that situation. No, 346 00:17:49.599 --> 00:17:51.599 they're not the better team. They're three and six and 347 00:17:51.599 --> 00:17:54.720 they're not a good team. So there's that situation. The 348 00:17:54.880 --> 00:17:58.960 running game sports, the running game should absolutely chew up 349 00:17:59.720 --> 00:18:05.000 this Atlanta defense. So oh here and here's and here's 350 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:06.400 another thing, and I'll throw it to you because I've 351 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:07.920 got some more stuff, but I don't want to don 352 00:18:07.960 --> 00:18:14.079 a hog good time. Atlanta's coming off an overtime overseas game. 353 00:18:14.160 --> 00:18:16.279 Most obviously, you know how many times that's happened in 354 00:18:16.359 --> 00:18:23.039 the NFL. Zero zero times have we had a team 355 00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:30.559 coming off of an overtime overseas game. So they're gonna 356 00:18:30.599 --> 00:18:33.279 be tired that they're coming right back and playing a 357 00:18:33.319 --> 00:18:35.880 team that that is gonna be physical and run. And 358 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:39.039 the last thing, Caroline's defense has been good all year long. 359 00:18:39.240 --> 00:18:42.359 They had a hiccup last week. I'm talking that. I'm 360 00:18:42.400 --> 00:18:44.200 just gonna talk up to a hiccup against against a 361 00:18:44.200 --> 00:18:46.839 team they overlook in New Orleans. They should dominate the Ruins. 362 00:18:46.839 --> 00:18:49.279 They had a bad game. This is a bounce back 363 00:18:49.319 --> 00:18:52.079 spot for that Carolina defense which has been good all year. 364 00:18:52.200 --> 00:18:55.400 So everything points to link to Carolina for me, and 365 00:18:55.559 --> 00:18:58.200 I love getting three and a half. And I'll sprinkle somewhat, 366 00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:02.440 sprinkle on the money on sprinkle, all. 367 00:19:02.440 --> 00:19:04.480 Right, So I do have some stuff on this one. 368 00:19:04.680 --> 00:19:07.880 I want to pull this first though. Well, week going eleven. Yeah, 369 00:19:08.680 --> 00:19:12.519 we'll pull up from week seven, so let's talk about 370 00:19:12.519 --> 00:19:15.400 the last both just because I started digging in so 371 00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:20.039 since the BPG par Longhorn suggestion last year, which was 372 00:19:20.039 --> 00:19:23.440 a brilliant one, I started grading things on the sliding scale, 373 00:19:24.400 --> 00:19:28.160 adjusting the algorithm algorithms a bit. You know, we talked 374 00:19:28.160 --> 00:19:31.599 about Carolina being awesome on defense success, right or whatever. 375 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:34.599 The last four games are down to twelve. So this, 376 00:19:35.039 --> 00:19:36.960 this and another defense i'll talk about a little bit later, 377 00:19:37.039 --> 00:19:40.799 has been on the slide. So I'll start off with 378 00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:43.680 saying that as far as the better team dB A 379 00:19:44.160 --> 00:19:46.799 disagrees with you, Atlanta's eighteenth Carolina. 380 00:19:46.559 --> 00:19:49.319 Is where are they at? 381 00:19:49.359 --> 00:19:51.400 Oh yeah, twenty seventh? They stink. 382 00:19:53.880 --> 00:19:55.759 That's a big that's a big difference. 383 00:19:56.759 --> 00:20:01.200 Yeah. It's all offensively driven though, and that's why I 384 00:20:01.279 --> 00:20:03.559 can't get down with I mean the spot you're right, 385 00:20:04.119 --> 00:20:05.839 and if you look through the grades the matchup. If 386 00:20:05.920 --> 00:20:08.240 Penix loses a half a point, not good. Their running 387 00:20:08.279 --> 00:20:10.799 game flat, which is how Carolina be in the first place. 388 00:20:10.839 --> 00:20:13.839 They held Bejon to basically nothing. But if you look 389 00:20:13.839 --> 00:20:18.160 at Carolina, you know, I think I don't remember what 390 00:20:18.279 --> 00:20:21.160 penis imploded in that game, but Bridstoung loses a point 391 00:20:21.240 --> 00:20:23.720 through the BBG. They have a flat grade through their 392 00:20:23.799 --> 00:20:26.119 running game as well. It grades out twenty four to 393 00:20:26.160 --> 00:20:28.960 seventeen Atlanta when about a touchdowns slightly in the under 394 00:20:29.000 --> 00:20:31.319 the forty two and a half power rank to say 395 00:20:31.319 --> 00:20:34.920 Atlanta the v twos on Carolina and the money though 396 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:38.720 coming in on Carolina, that's gonna be Look, I'm wanting 397 00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:40.960 this game. I might go against you on this one. 398 00:20:41.039 --> 00:20:43.160 I'm not laying three and a half. This game has 399 00:20:43.160 --> 00:20:45.079 got to get to three to even me even think 400 00:20:45.079 --> 00:20:47.400 about it. It's probably not gonna be a play for 401 00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:49.319 me either way, but it's got to get to three 402 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:52.079 for medium chance. But just looking at how these two 403 00:20:52.119 --> 00:20:55.799 teams are going lately, you know, yes, Carolina's defense has 404 00:20:55.920 --> 00:20:58.680 been great all season beginning last month not as good. 405 00:20:59.599 --> 00:21:02.559 And Atlanta, you know, there's such I don't know what 406 00:21:02.680 --> 00:21:04.480 to do with Atlanta at this point. They're so Jacklin 407 00:21:04.559 --> 00:21:07.319 high and if they can run the ball well, which 408 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:10.599 they're projected to run what they do, I should So 409 00:21:10.759 --> 00:21:12.559 I got a question on that. So I should clarify 410 00:21:13.880 --> 00:21:15.599 when I say flat because some people say, well you 411 00:21:15.640 --> 00:21:18.279 said flat and they had you know, the same game 412 00:21:18.519 --> 00:21:20.680 or you know, a decent running game. When I say flat, 413 00:21:20.720 --> 00:21:22.480 it means they're grading out to how they run. So 414 00:21:22.519 --> 00:21:24.920 if you're a great running team, it means you're gonna 415 00:21:24.920 --> 00:21:27.519 have your normal game. If I say your plus points 416 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:29.880 and your great run team, you have even better game. 417 00:21:29.880 --> 00:21:32.839 If I say minus should less than your average, that's 418 00:21:32.880 --> 00:21:35.640 all team specific. So I guess I should have been 419 00:21:35.680 --> 00:21:40.359 more clear with that. Does go through explain it? But again, 420 00:21:40.559 --> 00:21:42.079 I don't expect either one of these quarterbacks to have 421 00:21:42.119 --> 00:21:43.799 a good game. I don't expect this game to be 422 00:21:44.000 --> 00:21:46.279 high scoring. The problem with me with Carolina at this 423 00:21:46.359 --> 00:21:49.319 point is we've seen the games that they win outside 424 00:21:49.359 --> 00:21:52.680 a few outliers that they've had some defensive touchdowns and 425 00:21:52.759 --> 00:21:56.000 things like that. I mean, if you can score twenty points, 426 00:21:56.039 --> 00:21:58.440 you're gonna beat this team pretty much every fucking Sunday. 427 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:01.839 So I think it does score twenty. I think Carolina 428 00:22:01.880 --> 00:22:05.440 has a hard time. It's boring twenty, but who knows. 429 00:22:05.599 --> 00:22:07.839 I'm probably probably staying away from here, but definitely, I. 430 00:22:07.839 --> 00:22:11.400 Mean, look, it's it's Bryce Young. Is the way that 431 00:22:11.519 --> 00:22:14.160 Atlanta wins his game? If it's Bryce Young, where he's 432 00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:15.880 got his head stuck up his ass, and I always 433 00:22:15.880 --> 00:22:17.720 wonder with one of them when I'm watching Bryce young 434 00:22:17.960 --> 00:22:21.920 because you talk about jacquelin Hyde, he is the jaquelin Hyde. 435 00:22:21.960 --> 00:22:22.000 Like. 436 00:22:22.079 --> 00:22:24.720 Sometimes he comes out there and I think it's almost 437 00:22:24.759 --> 00:22:27.359 like are you on drugs or like are you medicated? 438 00:22:27.839 --> 00:22:29.480 Like what is wrong with you? You're like a walking 439 00:22:29.599 --> 00:22:31.559 zombie and I don't I don't understand it. And then 440 00:22:31.599 --> 00:22:35.240 the next game you'll just see him with the same 441 00:22:35.279 --> 00:22:37.640 players like there were there was nobody missing last week, 442 00:22:38.480 --> 00:22:41.839 the same players that they had. It's like there's nothing there. 443 00:22:41.880 --> 00:22:44.119 There's no emotion, there's no there's there's just. 444 00:22:45.119 --> 00:22:47.319 That vaunted New Orleans. Don't forget that. 445 00:22:48.079 --> 00:22:50.359 Yeah, well, I mean yeah, there was no reason for 446 00:22:50.440 --> 00:22:52.759 that to happen. And it's almost like he got he 447 00:22:52.880 --> 00:22:54.960 got it sapped by the like the one floor with 448 00:22:55.000 --> 00:22:57.359 the cuckoo's nestling you got, you got your your brain's 449 00:22:57.400 --> 00:22:59.640 acted like are you even here right now? Wake the 450 00:22:59.720 --> 00:23:02.839 fuck up? Bryce Younger in an NFL game, So if 451 00:23:02.920 --> 00:23:05.599 they lose, if I'm wrong, it will definitely be one 452 00:23:05.640 --> 00:23:09.359 of those Bryce young what the fuck games like, which 453 00:23:09.440 --> 00:23:11.359 can definitely happen, but just everything else. 454 00:23:13.759 --> 00:23:15.599 What's wild to me about the brush Young thing is 455 00:23:15.759 --> 00:23:17.880 and I heard this on a podcast this week, like 456 00:23:19.640 --> 00:23:22.799 the players like love this dude, and you just talked 457 00:23:22.839 --> 00:23:24.279 about it on a Monday, like he has the worst 458 00:23:24.319 --> 00:23:27.839 body language, yeah, which is undeniable. It's if you what 459 00:23:28.039 --> 00:23:30.680 he has the worst body Like how. 460 00:23:30.680 --> 00:23:33.240 Could you love this du Listen? We're coming We're we 461 00:23:33.359 --> 00:23:36.119 are coming out of the era of the small quarterback, 462 00:23:36.160 --> 00:23:38.839 thank God, Like like if the Bryce Young thing that 463 00:23:39.039 --> 00:23:41.319 it'll last for for a little while and they're having 464 00:23:41.359 --> 00:23:45.400 a decent season five to five, but the midget quarterback 465 00:23:45.480 --> 00:23:48.720 in Arizona, the all all these quarterbacks that are small, 466 00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:51.559 they're finally starting that that phase is starting to go. 467 00:23:51.640 --> 00:23:54.039 With Russell Wilson with the collapse of his career, that's 468 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:56.319 that's more to age than anything else, because he defied 469 00:23:56.559 --> 00:23:58.920 those odds for a long time. But we're coming out 470 00:23:58.960 --> 00:24:02.000 of it because at least at least some banker is 471 00:24:02.160 --> 00:24:04.119 you know, six one, like like he's not like a 472 00:24:04.359 --> 00:24:09.680 you know, tiny guy like Bryce Young is five ten, 473 00:24:09.839 --> 00:24:12.240 five eleven and like one hundred and ninety pounds, like 474 00:24:12.279 --> 00:24:15.519 he's just these quarterbacks are too small to plainfl and think, God, 475 00:24:15.559 --> 00:24:17.880 we're finally coming out of that era. But I hope 476 00:24:17.920 --> 00:24:21.559 it doesn't start this week, because I mean, good Bryce 477 00:24:21.599 --> 00:24:22.079 Young this. 478 00:24:22.200 --> 00:24:26.680 Week God's feed sir. All right, let's move on to 479 00:24:26.759 --> 00:24:30.200 those men of hold on By Kings hosting those Chicago 480 00:24:30.599 --> 00:24:33.440 Bens now pre seasonOn on this was Minnesota manas two 481 00:24:33.440 --> 00:24:36.279 and a half. We're currently sitting at Minnesota minus two 482 00:24:36.279 --> 00:24:41.319 and a half. Let's see if there's been any movement. Nope, sorry, 483 00:24:42.920 --> 00:24:46.359 two and a half juiced. We've got some threes heavily, 484 00:24:46.599 --> 00:24:51.079 heavily juice of threes across the board, threes on the 485 00:24:51.119 --> 00:24:54.680 even side. So this three that it was what it 486 00:24:54.799 --> 00:24:58.519 opened is moving to two and a half pretty quickly. 487 00:24:58.799 --> 00:25:01.759 So I and obviously think this is gonna finish at 488 00:25:01.759 --> 00:25:04.039 two and a half, if not less. 489 00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:07.839 What's the official number now still three. 490 00:25:08.559 --> 00:25:10.319 And it's like two point seven five. I mean it's 491 00:25:10.440 --> 00:25:14.319 you get three at Westgate, you get three at DraftKings, 492 00:25:14.440 --> 00:25:17.839 you get three at bet online. Circa just moved to 493 00:25:17.880 --> 00:25:19.720 two and a half minus one fifteen. That's in the 494 00:25:19.839 --> 00:25:22.799 last hour because they were three earlier. Get three on 495 00:25:22.880 --> 00:25:25.279 South Point, get three at win, get three at bet us. 496 00:25:25.319 --> 00:25:27.799 There's threes everywhere, but all the jews is coming on 497 00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:29.680 the threes on the other side of the plus three 498 00:25:30.480 --> 00:25:32.559 and where it is two and a half. Now circle 499 00:25:32.599 --> 00:25:34.400 moved to two and a half minus one fifteen, so 500 00:25:35.359 --> 00:25:38.279 you know, two point seven five. If you're one of 501 00:25:38.400 --> 00:25:40.119 great over the bet, you can definitely get the three. 502 00:25:40.160 --> 00:25:41.319 You can definitely get the two and a half the 503 00:25:41.480 --> 00:25:42.319 which side you like here? 504 00:25:43.880 --> 00:25:47.119 Yeah, And the last time these two teams played was 505 00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:50.680 obviously that was the week one which JJ McCarthy played 506 00:25:50.720 --> 00:25:54.960 that game, and Chicago kind of dominated most of that game. 507 00:25:55.119 --> 00:25:58.240 And it was like a all except the last eight minutes. 508 00:25:58.440 --> 00:26:02.160 Yes, except for the last eight minutes, so that this 509 00:26:02.440 --> 00:26:04.440 just feels like a Chicago spot to me. I want 510 00:26:04.480 --> 00:26:06.839 to be in Chicago. I want the plus three. If 511 00:26:06.880 --> 00:26:08.559 it's down to two and a half, it'll definitely be 512 00:26:08.599 --> 00:26:10.759 a tease up situation for me because because I think 513 00:26:11.279 --> 00:26:16.759 I think, even, yeah, that's good. I'm not making any 514 00:26:16.839 --> 00:26:19.319 kind of like sound or anything like that, although I 515 00:26:19.359 --> 00:26:22.720 do think Chicago is gonna win his game. But this 516 00:26:22.880 --> 00:26:25.680 is just a fascinating I'm fascinated with this quarterback situation 517 00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:32.720 game in this situation because Taylo seems to at least lately, 518 00:26:33.519 --> 00:26:36.279 do really well at end of games when he's off 519 00:26:36.440 --> 00:26:43.039 script and and JJ seems to only do well when 520 00:26:43.079 --> 00:26:47.079 he's on script, and so really, I don't I want 521 00:26:47.119 --> 00:26:48.759 to be in Chicago, but I don't really have a 522 00:26:48.839 --> 00:26:50.839 great feel in this one. And I didn't find anything 523 00:26:50.880 --> 00:26:53.759 that like blew me away on the matchups or that, 524 00:26:53.960 --> 00:26:55.519 you know, digging deep into the trends and things. So 525 00:26:55.559 --> 00:26:59.079 I hope you've got something something better to give me 526 00:26:59.559 --> 00:27:02.200 at least at least a good feeling about being on Chicago, 527 00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:04.640 because I'm definitely gonna be on Chicago, but I need 528 00:27:04.759 --> 00:27:06.720 more reasons to do it other than what I could 529 00:27:06.759 --> 00:27:09.799 find on my side. So what do you got over there? 530 00:27:10.839 --> 00:27:12.680 Oh, I got the power range grade down in Chicago. 531 00:27:13.000 --> 00:27:15.440 VT's on Chicago. I've got Chicago winning this game of 532 00:27:15.480 --> 00:27:18.279 twenty two to nineteen. That's to the NDA that kid 533 00:27:18.359 --> 00:27:21.240 at forty eight and a half. Now J. J. McCarthy 534 00:27:21.279 --> 00:27:23.640 does grade out plus point and a half versus defense, 535 00:27:23.720 --> 00:27:27.000 but Sugar bridges gains of point two and both running 536 00:27:27.039 --> 00:27:32.200 games should be around their normal success rate. However, as 537 00:27:32.240 --> 00:27:34.079 I dug more into this game, what I did find 538 00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:35.519 is and this is one of the defense I was 539 00:27:35.559 --> 00:27:37.519 talking about earlier, not the one, but one of them. 540 00:27:38.039 --> 00:27:39.880 If you look since week seven on. We always think 541 00:27:39.880 --> 00:27:42.880 about Minnesota, great defense, great defensive coach, blah blah blah 542 00:27:42.880 --> 00:27:45.599 blah blah. However, if you look since week seven ons 543 00:27:45.720 --> 00:27:49.359 last month, they're number seventeenth in success rate. Chicago's defense 544 00:27:49.359 --> 00:27:51.480 has been shit all year. Guess who's number eighteenth of 545 00:27:51.519 --> 00:27:53.880 success rate in the last four weeks. That would be Chicago. 546 00:27:54.279 --> 00:27:57.240 Their defense is getting better, Minnesota's getting worse. Chicago's offense 547 00:27:57.319 --> 00:28:01.640 is trending up. Minnesot's offense obviously isn't trending anywhere. So 548 00:28:02.759 --> 00:28:05.279 if you look overall, man, I think we're just I 549 00:28:05.359 --> 00:28:07.799 think we've got one team that's let's look at the 550 00:28:07.839 --> 00:28:10.799 d w o A ratings and this is all season long, 551 00:28:11.119 --> 00:28:12.599 so and I'm looking them up live, so I'd have 552 00:28:12.720 --> 00:28:19.599 no idea Minnesota sitting at twenty two. Chicago they can't 553 00:28:19.680 --> 00:28:25.000 be much. Yeah, twenty fifth, so it's eleven minus eleven 554 00:28:25.039 --> 00:28:28.519 point eight, thirteen point eight. So maybe it's a fair 555 00:28:28.640 --> 00:28:32.279 line at two and a half. But I think that 556 00:28:32.440 --> 00:28:34.319 Chicago's just a team on the trend that's going up, 557 00:28:34.400 --> 00:28:36.480 and so it's a team trend going down. I think 558 00:28:36.519 --> 00:28:38.160 the Bears are going to win this game. And last 559 00:28:38.200 --> 00:28:39.799 reason why I like the Bears. I'm gonna be in 560 00:28:39.880 --> 00:28:42.039 fucking Chicago. Of course the Bears are gonna cover for 561 00:28:42.160 --> 00:28:43.400 me while I'm in Chicago, do you? 562 00:28:43.640 --> 00:28:47.480 Oh? Yeah, go Bears. That sounds like the curse of 563 00:28:47.559 --> 00:28:49.680 both Davis to me. I don't know, that's that's what 564 00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:50.359 that sounds like. 565 00:28:51.039 --> 00:28:52.960 I'm a scene baby when I show up. It's fucking 566 00:28:53.039 --> 00:28:57.200 just good things happen. Let's go all right, let's move 567 00:28:57.200 --> 00:29:02.400 on to those perks Steelers there, they're uh somehow still 568 00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:05.240 five and a half point favorites. Long hoar, you have 569 00:29:05.279 --> 00:29:06.720 to make sense of this before me five and a 570 00:29:06.720 --> 00:29:10.119 half point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. So, I mean, flight, 571 00:29:10.200 --> 00:29:12.960 I was not dead, right, I know, I was not playing. 572 00:29:13.079 --> 00:29:16.200 But the money's coming in on Pittsburgh like it's five 573 00:29:16.240 --> 00:29:18.759 and a half. A little bit juice, it's six of Heritage, 574 00:29:19.119 --> 00:29:23.720 six of Bovada. I mean, if this keeps climbing, if 575 00:29:23.759 --> 00:29:27.240 this keeps climbing, I don't know. I don't know how 576 00:29:27.319 --> 00:29:29.160 you don't. It opened at six and a half, down 577 00:29:29.200 --> 00:29:31.680 to five and a half, obviously, that's kind of where 578 00:29:31.720 --> 00:29:34.720 the market landed at the Steelers at five and a half, 579 00:29:34.759 --> 00:29:37.400 which again confuses me, I don't know, what do you got. 580 00:29:38.079 --> 00:29:40.400 I know, I'm just kind of because I didn't do 581 00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:43.000 any of my danger zones or soundars. I'm kind of debating. 582 00:29:43.000 --> 00:29:45.359 I'm scrolling through my list of picks. I think I'm 583 00:29:45.400 --> 00:29:48.599 gonna save the danger zone. Could not do it here, 584 00:29:48.759 --> 00:29:51.920 although this is this was they This was definitely impossible 585 00:29:53.079 --> 00:29:54.240 danger zone spot. 586 00:29:54.599 --> 00:29:56.400 And this total forty nine and a half. I mean, 587 00:29:56.480 --> 00:30:00.880 I know Loan's defensive state, but fifty points, Well. 588 00:30:00.759 --> 00:30:03.880 They both suck. Yeah, they both sucked. So I mean, like, 589 00:30:04.240 --> 00:30:09.759 so I'm gonna be yeah, and I'm gonna be on Cincinnati. 590 00:30:10.039 --> 00:30:13.480 And this is this actually is a very similar handicap 591 00:30:13.680 --> 00:30:17.200 to the to the Carolina Atlanta ones, Like why would 592 00:30:17.240 --> 00:30:20.200 I not take the team that already beat them with 593 00:30:20.359 --> 00:30:26.880 this quarterback that owns this this particular Pittsburgh Steelers team, 594 00:30:27.200 --> 00:30:31.599 Flacco's nine to four at s against Pittsburgh as a dog. 595 00:30:32.079 --> 00:30:33.680 This is just his sweet spine. And I think we 596 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:36.960 mentioned this this this trend or I mentioned this trend 597 00:30:37.039 --> 00:30:38.880 last time that the last time they played, when he 598 00:30:39.000 --> 00:30:40.079 beat Pittsburgh. 599 00:30:40.240 --> 00:30:44.559 So I've got no reason was it that when heland. 600 00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:48.000 Right, mate? No? I think because you know it was 601 00:30:48.039 --> 00:30:50.079 his first game in Cinci. Remember is that because Toman 602 00:30:50.160 --> 00:30:52.319 was pissed off that that that they Cleveland trade him 603 00:30:52.319 --> 00:30:56.160 to Sincy, Like I can't believe. And everybody's like, why 604 00:30:56.279 --> 00:30:57.960 is he saying that? That sounds a little thought, But 605 00:30:58.000 --> 00:31:01.200 then he's not a dummy. He knew that Flacco is 606 00:31:01.240 --> 00:31:04.759 a baller. And they've got Jamar Chase and and t 607 00:31:04.960 --> 00:31:08.920 Higgins out there, and what's changed, What is changed to 608 00:31:09.119 --> 00:31:11.640 make this going in any other direction? And on top 609 00:31:11.680 --> 00:31:14.960 of the fact Pittsfurdh sucks as big favorites, this is 610 00:31:15.119 --> 00:31:17.480 not their spot at all. You don't ever want have 611 00:31:17.759 --> 00:31:20.440 been on Pittsburgh when they're big favorites. So I have 612 00:31:20.640 --> 00:31:24.440 no reason as I'm scanning my notes to to not 613 00:31:24.680 --> 00:31:27.160 take the free points here. And like I said I would, 614 00:31:27.480 --> 00:31:30.400 there's there's one thing, there's one thing that that's gonna 615 00:31:30.440 --> 00:31:32.359 kind of keep me off of a danger zone or 616 00:31:32.400 --> 00:31:34.759 big day pick or sound or anything like that. Sincy. 617 00:31:34.960 --> 00:31:37.440 And this is all about the coach who I hate 618 00:31:37.599 --> 00:31:39.480 for Cincy. I think I think he's a terrible coach 619 00:31:39.799 --> 00:31:42.079 and I can't wait till they fire him. Actually I 620 00:31:42.079 --> 00:31:42.440 don't want to. 621 00:31:43.559 --> 00:31:46.359 We've soured on it, like at first we thought. 622 00:31:46.640 --> 00:31:49.240 He's my day ball. He's my dayball to you like 623 00:31:49.400 --> 00:31:52.039 like you like you slowly came around to my I 624 00:31:52.079 --> 00:31:53.960 hate Zach Taylor, fade him for a long time. And 625 00:31:54.240 --> 00:31:55.759 I think I'm finally winning over on that, just like 626 00:31:55.799 --> 00:31:57.559 you want me over in the day ball thing. Uh 627 00:31:57.720 --> 00:32:00.319 sincy one and four ats coming off of a buy 628 00:32:00.799 --> 00:32:05.559 and playing a division opponent, like good coaches coming home buys, 629 00:32:06.279 --> 00:32:09.400 that's their sweet spot, like and he's just not good. 630 00:32:09.559 --> 00:32:14.000 So especially in division when you should know your opponent 631 00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:16.160 like like this is. These are opponents you played twice 632 00:32:16.160 --> 00:32:18.920 a year at least. So that's the only thing came 633 00:32:19.039 --> 00:32:23.319 me off of something like that. But yeah, I've got 634 00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:24.720 no reason to not take the points. And I hope 635 00:32:24.759 --> 00:32:27.160 it gets to six. I hope it goes Everybody keep 636 00:32:27.200 --> 00:32:30.319 betting Pittsburgh. I just just load up on Pittsburgh because 637 00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:32.759 I'm gonna take all that other side and eat it up. 638 00:32:32.839 --> 00:32:33.480 Yom Yom young. 639 00:32:34.759 --> 00:32:36.599 Yeah, I mean Vicky Islama that I'm gonna have to 640 00:32:36.640 --> 00:32:38.559 go since the so power ring's got great since he 641 00:32:38.640 --> 00:32:40.400 at five and a half, me twos on the Pittsburgh 642 00:32:40.920 --> 00:32:44.880 for and a half. Look, both offenses, both quarterbacks gain 643 00:32:44.960 --> 00:32:47.119 a point, both running back, both runn games game of 644 00:32:47.240 --> 00:32:50.160 point and I'm still at forty eight points. It's twenty 645 00:32:50.200 --> 00:32:51.759 five to twenty three since he went in this game 646 00:32:52.039 --> 00:32:54.640 where graded, I don't know how we get the forty 647 00:32:54.720 --> 00:32:56.880 nine and a half. It's gonna have to be strip 648 00:32:57.079 --> 00:32:58.920 sack fumble, I mean, which is really I think the 649 00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:01.839 only way Pittsburgh covered. So if it goes over, we're 650 00:33:01.839 --> 00:33:02.759 probably cooked on the sun. 651 00:33:02.839 --> 00:33:05.240 Well think it does when it's when it's fourteen to 652 00:33:05.680 --> 00:33:07.880 seven in the first quarter, I don't think you're gonna 653 00:33:07.920 --> 00:33:10.240 be saying that like that, Like what was the last. 654 00:33:10.079 --> 00:33:10.680 One on the one? 655 00:33:10.799 --> 00:33:13.039 Was the last score of this one? 656 00:33:14.559 --> 00:33:16.200 Why you look that up? I will talk about a 657 00:33:16.200 --> 00:33:18.799 couple of trends here, go ahead. Well, it's stopping from 658 00:33:18.880 --> 00:33:21.720 slamming since he you just mentioned it off the by 659 00:33:21.839 --> 00:33:23.960 now this isn't since the specific this is any team 660 00:33:24.079 --> 00:33:27.079 since twenty twenty one. Off the buy and you're away 661 00:33:27.160 --> 00:33:32.640 Dogs eighteen to nineteen, ATS, ATS margins negative zero point three. 662 00:33:33.880 --> 00:33:35.960 That's an on line of four point six though, so 663 00:33:36.119 --> 00:33:38.599 basically losing by five points a game fifteen to twenty 664 00:33:38.680 --> 00:33:43.160 one straight up. Uh, but that's a really good percentage 665 00:33:43.200 --> 00:33:46.240 though for Dogs covering forty or dogs winning forty one percent. 666 00:33:47.000 --> 00:33:49.279 That's not bad. It's I mean, it's not above. 667 00:33:49.279 --> 00:33:52.359 Winning out right, winning out right. Oh okay, yeah, that's 668 00:33:52.359 --> 00:33:52.920 pretty that. 669 00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:55.240 It's not above average, but you know it's pretty good. 670 00:33:55.839 --> 00:33:59.240 But if you're the way dog, and it is in 671 00:33:59.319 --> 00:34:04.680 Divisions twenty twenty one, four and two ats by point 672 00:34:05.559 --> 00:34:08.000 or zero point two, so barely covering the margin. But 673 00:34:08.119 --> 00:34:09.559 that's in a line of five point eight, which is 674 00:34:09.639 --> 00:34:12.079 exactly where we're sitting. So you're losing yours three and 675 00:34:12.119 --> 00:34:16.719 three straight up, losing by five point seven points per game. Yeah, 676 00:34:16.760 --> 00:34:19.679 I think that. But here here's the other thing. When 677 00:34:19.679 --> 00:34:21.719 I said it was gonna go under, and this again, 678 00:34:21.760 --> 00:34:23.840 this is just trends, and take it for what it's worth. 679 00:34:23.960 --> 00:34:26.840 On the big trend twelve twenty four and one to 680 00:34:26.920 --> 00:34:29.440 the under thirty three percent of sixty six point seven 681 00:34:29.440 --> 00:34:32.760 percent of the time it goes under. On the division 682 00:34:32.840 --> 00:34:36.000 thing one five to them by seven and a half points, 683 00:34:36.039 --> 00:34:38.000 an average shoulder of forty four point two, we're sitting 684 00:34:38.000 --> 00:34:40.800 at forty nine and a half. I mean, there's just 685 00:34:40.920 --> 00:34:43.800 no way. I mean, the under is probably where I'm 686 00:34:43.800 --> 00:34:47.159 looking at this one again, if the other hits. I 687 00:34:47.199 --> 00:34:49.840 don't see any way, since he doesn't cover if it 688 00:34:49.920 --> 00:34:53.239 goes over. That's because JJ Watt had forty five fucking 689 00:34:53.280 --> 00:34:57.239 strip sacks and Joe Fando died of fucking gone rheoil. 690 00:34:57.440 --> 00:35:00.440 I mean, that's that's interesting because I would look kinda 691 00:35:00.760 --> 00:35:02.880 kind of the other way, like like since he can 692 00:35:03.039 --> 00:35:06.280 only win if they outscore Pittsburgh, and that's exactly what 693 00:35:06.320 --> 00:35:07.760 they did last time when it was thirty three to 694 00:35:07.880 --> 00:35:08.320 thirty one. 695 00:35:09.079 --> 00:35:11.760 Like I don't, I don't, but I know, and that's 696 00:35:11.760 --> 00:35:13.880 why the numbers so high. But all through the grades 697 00:35:13.880 --> 00:35:16.840 and how the numbers great out, there's gonna have to 698 00:35:16.920 --> 00:35:18.760 be something happened to get it to the And again 699 00:35:18.960 --> 00:35:21.280 this is these two teams. But these two defenses, as 700 00:35:21.280 --> 00:35:24.119 shit as they are greater against each other than these offenses, 701 00:35:24.239 --> 00:35:26.679 still doesn't produce that kind of point. So I'm not 702 00:35:26.800 --> 00:35:30.960 saying that it's a lot, but I like sency enough 703 00:35:31.079 --> 00:35:34.800 that I think that. I mean, and we've seen Pittsburgh's 704 00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:38.320 offense now and everybody's seen it. It is so Aaron 705 00:35:38.440 --> 00:35:43.360 Rodgers stagnant. It's three tight ends, it's fucking seven yard 706 00:35:43.480 --> 00:35:46.039 catches at the bass, like there's no explosiveness to this 707 00:35:46.159 --> 00:35:47.719 offense at all. The only thing scares me about the 708 00:35:47.760 --> 00:35:50.519 under is that, yeah, fucking Jamar Chase and t Higgins 709 00:35:50.599 --> 00:35:53.000 is just they could just be dropping bombs out there 710 00:35:53.039 --> 00:35:56.719 against this fucking, shitty, fucking Pittsburgh secondary. Of course they could. 711 00:35:57.320 --> 00:35:59.800 You know, Bengals games are seven and two to the 712 00:35:59.840 --> 00:36:02.840 over this year. They're just they're just a smash over team. 713 00:36:03.159 --> 00:36:04.960 You don't want to bet the under against them for sure, 714 00:36:05.000 --> 00:36:06.960 which kind of makes me want about the under even more. 715 00:36:06.880 --> 00:36:10.280 Because I'm and and uh, let's see what was Joe 716 00:36:10.639 --> 00:36:15.360 Joe Flacco's first game was three weeks ago against Pittsburgh 717 00:36:15.760 --> 00:36:19.000 and they're they're three and oh to the over since 718 00:36:19.079 --> 00:36:21.000 Joe Flacco has been in there, so he's gonna score 719 00:36:21.039 --> 00:36:24.320 his points. They can't stop anybody. If you're a brave man, 720 00:36:24.360 --> 00:36:26.480 if you take the under and up Bengals game. 721 00:36:26.559 --> 00:36:29.000 Let's just say that this kind of makes me want 722 00:36:29.000 --> 00:36:30.679 to take it even more. Kind of makes you want 723 00:36:30.679 --> 00:36:34.199 to say, let's see which way just for ships and gigs? Uh, 724 00:36:35.679 --> 00:36:41.039 forty nine and a half? Was it fifty? So the 725 00:36:41.119 --> 00:36:43.320 market agrees the market has been it down already because 726 00:36:43.320 --> 00:36:46.199 it's forty nine A lot of places across the board. 727 00:36:46.280 --> 00:36:49.199 So it's coming down. It's kinda gone down. 728 00:36:49.639 --> 00:36:50.639 God bless you people. 729 00:36:51.800 --> 00:36:54.239 God damn if I could have got a fifty over great. 730 00:36:55.079 --> 00:36:58.800 There's no between fifty and and that's fifty one is 731 00:36:58.800 --> 00:37:00.000 the number you want if you're going under. 732 00:37:01.159 --> 00:37:03.159 Yeah, what watch it? Land fifty and I lose my 733 00:37:03.199 --> 00:37:05.400 money and I fucking can on Monday and just the 734 00:37:05.559 --> 00:37:07.920 long er, what a fucking idiot is There's no difference. 735 00:37:09.360 --> 00:37:13.119 All right, Let's move on to those New York football giants. 736 00:37:14.239 --> 00:37:17.440 Famous Jamis is back. I'm so excited for this game 737 00:37:17.480 --> 00:37:22.079 they're hosting. I can't wait. I can't wait to see 738 00:37:22.119 --> 00:37:22.519 the show. 739 00:37:22.679 --> 00:37:22.960 Baby. 740 00:37:23.079 --> 00:37:24.920 I will have no I will not have a dime 741 00:37:25.480 --> 00:37:27.760 on this game. And anybody that took the Packers and 742 00:37:27.840 --> 00:37:30.400 your survivor or if you're thinking about it, you talking 743 00:37:30.440 --> 00:37:33.599 about Brave, Because here's the thing. You're either gonna get 744 00:37:34.920 --> 00:37:37.760 three interceptions from Jamis or he's gonna drop four touchdowns 745 00:37:37.800 --> 00:37:40.679 of your ass. Good luck, good luck either way. I 746 00:37:40.719 --> 00:37:42.320 don't want any part of this game, Longhan, What do 747 00:37:42.360 --> 00:37:42.639 you got? 748 00:37:43.360 --> 00:37:45.599 Yeah, I'm gonna, I mean, I'm forced to use this 749 00:37:45.760 --> 00:37:50.199 as another another with without the without the sounder of course, 750 00:37:50.280 --> 00:37:51.960 but like this has to be another big Dick pick 751 00:37:52.079 --> 00:37:55.119 because like Jamos is either gonna lose this game by 752 00:37:55.239 --> 00:37:58.760 thirty or he's gonna win. Just so like I have to. 753 00:37:58.840 --> 00:38:02.039 And if it's seven and a half, give me give 754 00:38:02.079 --> 00:38:03.320 me a unit on the seven and a half and 755 00:38:03.360 --> 00:38:07.679 a half unit seven halfs Oh, they're all gone. 756 00:38:08.440 --> 00:38:12.320 Literally literally there's seven though, right seven across the board. 757 00:38:12.440 --> 00:38:15.519 Okay, I'll take the seven for a unit and then 758 00:38:15.559 --> 00:38:18.199 give me give me the money line for a half 759 00:38:18.320 --> 00:38:22.920 unit because I mean it. First of all, green Bay 760 00:38:22.960 --> 00:38:25.800 hasn't covered. They haven't covered as a favorite of seven 761 00:38:26.119 --> 00:38:28.480 or more points all year long. They're just they're they're 762 00:38:28.599 --> 00:38:31.599 not doing it. So maybe the Giants that well, likely 763 00:38:31.679 --> 00:38:33.320 the Giants don't win the game for sure. 764 00:38:34.159 --> 00:38:38.360 But that's stupid number. What says plusy sixty seid, I 765 00:38:38.440 --> 00:38:40.280 want to give you the plus t seventy five that 766 00:38:40.360 --> 00:38:41.199 doesn't make sense. 767 00:38:41.559 --> 00:38:46.400 I'll take, But like I said, yeah, green Bay doesn't 768 00:38:46.400 --> 00:38:47.960 cover these big spreads. They haven't done all year and 769 00:38:48.000 --> 00:38:50.800 theyve been losing. They lost to Carolina is a huge number. 770 00:38:50.800 --> 00:38:54.039 They lost to Cleveland as a huge number. Like in 771 00:38:54.199 --> 00:38:58.559 the Dallas game, they they tied, So like how does 772 00:38:58.599 --> 00:39:00.760 that work out? Actually, if you're on that's just a push. 773 00:39:01.360 --> 00:39:03.519 I guess if you're on the money, lass just if 774 00:39:03.559 --> 00:39:07.119 you cut the money, Okay, but yeah, so so the 775 00:39:07.199 --> 00:39:10.079 fact they don't cover, they can't stop. They can't stop 776 00:39:10.159 --> 00:39:15.119 the run or excuse me, New York can't stop the run. 777 00:39:15.199 --> 00:39:17.400 So that's that's the path to victory for Green Bay. 778 00:39:17.519 --> 00:39:20.679 So take the ball out of Love's hand. It's not working, 779 00:39:21.159 --> 00:39:24.400 you know. I know he's overall grading decent for the year, 780 00:39:24.760 --> 00:39:26.119 but a lot of that was in the beginning of 781 00:39:26.119 --> 00:39:29.840 the year. They're down Tucker Craft, they're down Jalen Reed, 782 00:39:29.880 --> 00:39:33.360 they're down Romeo Dobbs. Same story with the Packers every 783 00:39:33.440 --> 00:39:36.920 year they Matthew Golden, can can you wake me up 784 00:39:36.920 --> 00:39:38.679 the next time you hear the number one draft pick 785 00:39:38.719 --> 00:39:41.719 out of Texas Matthew Golden's name, Like, like, somebody remind 786 00:39:41.760 --> 00:39:44.000 me the next time he makes a play in the NFL, 787 00:39:44.320 --> 00:39:47.079 Like they're just the curse franchise with wide receivers. Stop 788 00:39:47.199 --> 00:39:49.079 doing it. And when we were in Green Bay for 789 00:39:49.159 --> 00:39:51.400 the draft, when he took the receiver out of Texas, 790 00:39:52.559 --> 00:39:55.519 I said, I said, why, Like this is just that's 791 00:39:55.559 --> 00:39:59.880 not that doesn't Why do you do that. But they 792 00:40:00.000 --> 00:40:01.440 he's got no one to throw to and he's just 793 00:40:01.519 --> 00:40:04.039 running out of people to throw too. And I think, 794 00:40:04.679 --> 00:40:08.440 I think the jamis thing. It's gonna be a fun ride, 795 00:40:08.679 --> 00:40:10.840 Like I don't, we don't know what's gonna happen. He 796 00:40:11.000 --> 00:40:18.280 might throw a pick six or two. But it's musty TV, 797 00:40:18.480 --> 00:40:20.039 I can tell you that. And I can't wait to 798 00:40:20.119 --> 00:40:23.159 watch it, and I want, I literally want to have 799 00:40:23.440 --> 00:40:25.440 action on this game just so I can put it 800 00:40:25.480 --> 00:40:28.119 on one of my TVs and watch either the train 801 00:40:28.199 --> 00:40:32.079 wreck or the or the fucking amazing win for the Giants. 802 00:40:32.159 --> 00:40:33.159 So what do you got? 803 00:40:34.440 --> 00:40:37.199 Well, goodness for your giants. Bread gets to run. But 804 00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:41.519 since week seven, they weren't dead last. Now they're thirty first, 805 00:40:41.639 --> 00:40:43.639 so let's go. We moved on to the spot. 806 00:40:43.840 --> 00:40:46.360 I mean, when you're last, you got nowhere to go 807 00:40:46.519 --> 00:40:47.119 but up. 808 00:40:47.679 --> 00:40:49.519 Nowhere to go up and the hey man, they made 809 00:40:49.599 --> 00:40:52.039 enough spot, So good job on that. I got nothing 810 00:40:52.119 --> 00:40:53.880 of this game. I can't wait to watch this game. 811 00:40:54.480 --> 00:40:57.960 God bless anybody that's balls enough to take anybody, or 812 00:40:58.000 --> 00:41:01.480 if you hoard yourself into We took Green Bay, which 813 00:41:01.639 --> 00:41:03.159 there's gonna be a lot of people on them. I 814 00:41:03.280 --> 00:41:06.159 hope to God, I hope the god Longhorn hits this 815 00:41:06.239 --> 00:41:08.920 fucking big tacking the Giants fucking win, because that's gonna 816 00:41:08.960 --> 00:41:14.119 make survivor easier. All Right, speaking of another game that 817 00:41:15.079 --> 00:41:17.239 gotten a little bit away from us here, Uh so 818 00:41:17.360 --> 00:41:20.920 much quarterback news. I don't know what happened or whatever. 819 00:41:21.320 --> 00:41:24.280 I guess maybe bumped his head again. But it's those 820 00:41:24.360 --> 00:41:28.559 Tennessee Titans hosting those Houston I said, Houston with Stroud. 821 00:41:29.960 --> 00:41:32.440 Stroud somehow magically out again. 822 00:41:33.039 --> 00:41:36.760 This isn't that bullshit? Like like these quarterbacks that are 823 00:41:36.840 --> 00:41:41.239 that are missing games for head injuries and concussions, like 824 00:41:41.360 --> 00:41:43.760 I get it with Jackson Dart in which we didn't 825 00:41:43.760 --> 00:41:45.239 even talk about when we were just in the Giants. 826 00:41:45.280 --> 00:41:49.719 But like, by the way, Jackson Dart, you got major issues, 827 00:41:49.800 --> 00:41:51.840 like you gotta clean this stuff. That's his third concussion 828 00:41:51.880 --> 00:41:54.760 this year? Did you know that? Both Sevis? That's his third. Now, 829 00:41:55.199 --> 00:42:01.719 that's his third concussion of the year. No, he's been 830 00:42:01.840 --> 00:42:04.360 not like I mean, he remember he got remember the 831 00:42:04.400 --> 00:42:09.119 blue tint. Okay, it's his third. Yeah, it's his third. 832 00:42:09.360 --> 00:42:11.239 I've got to go get checked out for a concussion. 833 00:42:11.360 --> 00:42:14.519 Which if you're getting checked out, you got ding and 834 00:42:15.000 --> 00:42:16.800 it's just to the point where he plays too reckless. 835 00:42:16.880 --> 00:42:19.679 So watch that. Going forward with with Jackson's art, he's 836 00:42:19.719 --> 00:42:22.000 not a very smart guy when he's running the ball. 837 00:42:23.480 --> 00:42:26.239 That one ever, the first one. 838 00:42:27.199 --> 00:42:29.480 You mean, when you do TikTok dances, when you celebrate 839 00:42:29.519 --> 00:42:31.920 and you look like a frat boy, that it doesn't 840 00:42:32.239 --> 00:42:34.559 you don't think that this is you know, this isn't 841 00:42:34.639 --> 00:42:37.320 gonna be good. I don't know. It's sure, it's fun though, 842 00:42:38.159 --> 00:42:41.000 but yeah it with Stroud like it's like not we 843 00:42:41.199 --> 00:42:44.599 we watched the the the Dallas Cowboys documentary with the 844 00:42:44.679 --> 00:42:49.039 Jerry Jones thing and then the nineties Cowboys. Hello Troy Yeikman. 845 00:42:49.280 --> 00:42:52.440 He talked about it. He played a whole game where 846 00:42:52.480 --> 00:42:56.159 he didn't remember it. After he played once he got 847 00:42:56.239 --> 00:42:58.639 hit in the knee with the with the helmet. He 848 00:42:58.800 --> 00:43:01.079 literally the next the next say, he watched the film 849 00:43:01.119 --> 00:43:02.800 of the game and he's like, I have no idea 850 00:43:02.840 --> 00:43:04.599 what happened after that. But he played the whole time, 851 00:43:04.800 --> 00:43:06.679 and so it's just I don't know it just I 852 00:43:06.760 --> 00:43:08.599 know it's a new it's a new era and these 853 00:43:08.599 --> 00:43:11.440 players are soft and it's all about CTE and all 854 00:43:11.480 --> 00:43:14.719 this bullshit. But he took a week off. You took 855 00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:16.679 a week off, and you still can't get your ass, 856 00:43:17.119 --> 00:43:19.320 get your asked up there and find that fucking dog 857 00:43:19.440 --> 00:43:22.320 and play a game. I gets this, sorry ass. Pitan's 858 00:43:22.360 --> 00:43:26.559 that's a free square. You have a free square. Win. 859 00:43:26.719 --> 00:43:28.360 You get to go out there, you get to boost 860 00:43:28.400 --> 00:43:30.360 your stats, you get to throw it around the yard. 861 00:43:30.599 --> 00:43:33.480 You're gonna get like probably two or three touchdowns for sure. 862 00:43:34.199 --> 00:43:36.960 And now I don't know what to do because we 863 00:43:37.079 --> 00:43:40.599 got we got Davis Mills who looked like absolute dog 864 00:43:40.719 --> 00:43:44.320 shit for three quarters last week and then went donkey 865 00:43:44.679 --> 00:43:47.320 in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. 866 00:43:47.000 --> 00:43:49.360 Seven seventh quarter. Well, no, he didn't start the other game, 867 00:43:49.440 --> 00:43:52.079 so whatever whatever he was in plus the first three 868 00:43:52.719 --> 00:43:53.880 plus the rest of his life. 869 00:43:54.840 --> 00:43:59.599 So I don't I really don't know. I'm just pissed 870 00:43:59.639 --> 00:44:02.039 that they took the pre square away from me because 871 00:44:03.480 --> 00:44:05.599 what what is it? What's the line movement? Like, what's 872 00:44:05.719 --> 00:44:07.599 officially down to? And where do you think it's going? 873 00:44:09.000 --> 00:44:13.679 So all the way down? I'm still gonna take Houston, 874 00:44:14.039 --> 00:44:16.440 Like I mean, I've talked about this earlier. Why do you. 875 00:44:19.440 --> 00:44:22.960 Jesus on Jesus, it's six flat? But wherever there is 876 00:44:23.519 --> 00:44:25.920 juices on the sixth, so we could heading to five 877 00:44:25.960 --> 00:44:26.920 and a half territory here. 878 00:44:27.039 --> 00:44:30.199 I mean, the Titans are three and six ATS, and 879 00:44:30.320 --> 00:44:32.400 my only question to that is, how the hell did 880 00:44:32.440 --> 00:44:34.559 they ever get the three I have no clue how 881 00:44:34.559 --> 00:44:39.079 they even got three ats ats covers. So yeah, I 882 00:44:39.199 --> 00:44:45.119 want to be on Houston and it's now homeboy. Their 883 00:44:45.159 --> 00:44:48.880 best player on defense for Tennessee whose names escape with me? 884 00:44:49.000 --> 00:44:52.519 Right now? I will get it. Justin Simmons. There's rumors 885 00:44:52.559 --> 00:44:55.400 he might play. He's raiding out. He's raiding out right now. 886 00:44:55.519 --> 00:44:57.519 Is the second defensive tackle win the league. And he's 887 00:44:57.559 --> 00:44:59.719 always been in the top five or ten, like he's 888 00:44:59.760 --> 00:45:03.199 a p Neil All Pro Pro Bowl type player. Why 889 00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:05.920 he would come back, I don't know, like like like, 890 00:45:06.119 --> 00:45:08.360 why are you even coming back? He must love football 891 00:45:08.440 --> 00:45:11.880 and that that's that's great for him. Just maybe since 892 00:45:11.960 --> 00:45:16.199 this one division, maybe sit this one out. So and 893 00:45:16.280 --> 00:45:18.840 I've got no faith in in the Texas or the 894 00:45:19.119 --> 00:45:21.639 Titans coming off of a bye with a shitty coach 895 00:45:22.119 --> 00:45:25.800 and no direction and no offense. Hey, it's still the 896 00:45:25.840 --> 00:45:28.199 free Square to me. Although I'm a little bit timid, 897 00:45:28.360 --> 00:45:29.079 I'm not gonna lie. 898 00:45:30.159 --> 00:45:31.679 That's gonna be a tester. The only thing I have 899 00:45:31.760 --> 00:45:34.679 in this game is coming off a buye since twenty one, 900 00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:37.599 You're home and the dog. This is the spot. Fifteen 901 00:45:38.079 --> 00:45:41.559 ats plus two point two sixty percent on an averageon 902 00:45:41.639 --> 00:45:45.000 of four point four that has them obviously covering the 903 00:45:45.079 --> 00:45:48.360 six eleven or fourteen straight up forty four percent that 904 00:45:48.480 --> 00:45:51.239 actually is a little bit better than average and only 905 00:45:51.320 --> 00:45:54.079 losing by two point two points per game. I did 906 00:45:54.159 --> 00:45:56.000 pull the division on thing was only like four games. 907 00:45:56.039 --> 00:45:57.760 That's not going enough sample SiZ to talk about. 908 00:45:58.239 --> 00:46:01.079 So can I just say just think nothing about all that? 909 00:46:02.320 --> 00:46:06.360 For a year and a half or more, there's been 910 00:46:06.440 --> 00:46:09.559 nothing but great spots for Tennessee. It's just like, just 911 00:46:09.679 --> 00:46:12.800 go down. How many times have I lost bets on 912 00:46:12.960 --> 00:46:17.639 great spots with Tennessee? Like, so, I agree, it's another 913 00:46:17.719 --> 00:46:20.719 great spot for Tennessee. It doesn't seem to fucking matter 914 00:46:21.119 --> 00:46:25.360 with them. So yeah, I'm I'm gonna be on the Texans. 915 00:46:25.719 --> 00:46:29.599 They're literally the IOWA of fucking professional football. Like they 916 00:46:29.679 --> 00:46:32.199 have to have a special team score. They've gotta have 917 00:46:32.280 --> 00:46:37.280 a defensive score. They've gotta have these to even fucking 918 00:46:37.440 --> 00:46:40.480 have a chance of winning a game, much less covering 919 00:46:40.519 --> 00:46:41.440 a game just to. 920 00:46:41.480 --> 00:46:45.039 Cover perfect perfect example is before the buy when they 921 00:46:45.079 --> 00:46:48.039 played the Chargers, they had they had two kick return 922 00:46:48.239 --> 00:46:51.719 touchdowns and then one field goal off of I don't 923 00:46:51.719 --> 00:46:54.000 remember the scenario. We I talked about it during that game. 924 00:46:54.480 --> 00:46:56.360 That was their seventeen points and oh they got They 925 00:46:56.440 --> 00:46:57.880 managed to get one more field go on their own, 926 00:46:57.920 --> 00:47:01.480 so they got three points on their own. That is 927 00:47:01.519 --> 00:47:03.400 the only way they cover. And is that gonna happen? 928 00:47:04.159 --> 00:47:07.119 Breathe the bike and post the post by I doubt it. 929 00:47:07.239 --> 00:47:09.639 Give me the Texas to win twenty to twenty three 930 00:47:09.719 --> 00:47:11.800 to fucking I don't know nine. 931 00:47:12.800 --> 00:47:15.599 And Davis Mills for twenty three points, I don't know. 932 00:47:16.119 --> 00:47:16.679 That's tall. 933 00:47:16.880 --> 00:47:18.760 Well he did. He did twenty six and one quarter. 934 00:47:18.880 --> 00:47:20.800 So by your tongue, siry, I mean he did it. 935 00:47:20.960 --> 00:47:22.320 He did it one quarter last week? 936 00:47:22.639 --> 00:47:25.400 Did he use up all his points for the No? 937 00:47:26.559 --> 00:47:29.360 No, He's charging his way back to a starter role 938 00:47:29.440 --> 00:47:31.639 and it started. It started last week in the fourth 939 00:47:31.719 --> 00:47:34.199 quarter and it continues this week against Tennessee. 940 00:47:34.880 --> 00:47:36.800 You know what's funny about this, I was like, when 941 00:47:36.840 --> 00:47:38.840 I saw the fact that Davis was gonna start, I 942 00:47:38.880 --> 00:47:41.599 went to like the comments section of the thing. It 943 00:47:41.679 --> 00:47:44.360 popped up on the app and literally, like everybody in 944 00:47:44.440 --> 00:47:49.119 Fantasy was like hell yeah, like fucking Nico, Nico king 945 00:47:49.280 --> 00:47:52.920 Niko to the house, Nico max points Nika, like everything 946 00:47:53.039 --> 00:47:55.920 was like yay, yay, yay, we get Davis Mills is 947 00:47:55.960 --> 00:47:58.039 not fucking Stroud. So it was like, it was so 948 00:47:58.199 --> 00:48:01.480 funny to see that, like you do people people did 949 00:48:01.679 --> 00:48:02.920 watch the game, right. 950 00:48:02.920 --> 00:48:05.719 Like I get it, but still no, they don't watch 951 00:48:05.760 --> 00:48:09.039 the game. They just watch their fantasy team scoreboard, the 952 00:48:09.119 --> 00:48:12.159 matchup scoreboard. I thought they don't. They don't, they don't care. 953 00:48:12.800 --> 00:48:15.119 All right, well, here's a game where you probably don't 954 00:48:15.159 --> 00:48:18.800 need to watch the fantasy matchup scoreboard. It's my Jacksonville 955 00:48:18.920 --> 00:48:25.880 Jaguars hosting those Sandyago Superges. They are three point home dogs. 956 00:48:26.800 --> 00:48:28.960 It was two and a half earlier in the week 957 00:48:29.760 --> 00:48:34.960 this one. I think we're sitting at a pretty solid three. Now, 958 00:48:35.079 --> 00:48:39.639 let me double check. Here we go. Still still two 959 00:48:39.679 --> 00:48:42.239 and a half at Circa and oh sorry, at Westgate, 960 00:48:42.360 --> 00:48:45.519 but three pretty much everywhere else. Juice to the three though, 961 00:48:45.599 --> 00:48:48.199 so let's call it two point seventy five, but only 962 00:48:48.239 --> 00:48:50.079 one two and a half left Long Horn, so it's 963 00:48:50.280 --> 00:48:53.159 pretty much of the three or you're taking three. 964 00:48:54.039 --> 00:48:55.920 Yeah, this one you can get. I don't think you 965 00:48:55.920 --> 00:48:58.599 can get more than three, though I don't think so either. 966 00:48:58.800 --> 00:49:01.440 This one was a struggle for me. I didn't find 967 00:49:01.599 --> 00:49:05.239 any deciding factors in this one. I don't even I 968 00:49:05.320 --> 00:49:07.960 don't even have a team that I want to be on, Like, 969 00:49:08.039 --> 00:49:09.880 I can't even decide who I even want to be 970 00:49:10.000 --> 00:49:12.880 on in an abstract angle on this because I don't 971 00:49:13.039 --> 00:49:16.599 Trevor Lawrence. I hate him with a passion. I never want, 972 00:49:16.840 --> 00:49:19.400 never want to be on him. But the defense of 973 00:49:19.480 --> 00:49:23.119 the Jaguars I do think has a nice little spot 974 00:49:23.239 --> 00:49:26.159 here against that offensive line of the Chargers. And the 975 00:49:26.280 --> 00:49:28.599 Chargers are coming coming in, you know, down into the 976 00:49:28.679 --> 00:49:31.519 Miami you know area. It's all the way across the country, 977 00:49:33.280 --> 00:49:36.360 you know. But I don't feel great about it. And 978 00:49:36.639 --> 00:49:39.440 at three points, at three points, I'm a lean to Jackson. 979 00:49:39.480 --> 00:49:40.719 I'm not gonna waste the times. It's kind of like 980 00:49:40.760 --> 00:49:43.159 a pass for me, basically, but on unforced lean, I'll 981 00:49:43.199 --> 00:49:45.639 take the Jaguars at home getting to the three. But 982 00:49:47.199 --> 00:49:49.119 this is this to talk me into one side or 983 00:49:49.119 --> 00:49:49.960 the other because I don't like it. 984 00:49:51.320 --> 00:49:54.079 Yeah, I wish I could, uh Kyle Regan is a 985 00:49:54.159 --> 00:49:57.320 no cale here. It's fair line these He's got the 986 00:49:57.400 --> 00:49:59.360 Chargers forty three and a half is where the overs 987 00:49:59.440 --> 00:50:02.000 sitting in over under. I've got the charge running twenty 988 00:50:02.039 --> 00:50:04.480 five twenty two, so literally right on the number, a 989 00:50:04.519 --> 00:50:06.360 little bit over. I kind of like the over a 990 00:50:06.400 --> 00:50:08.960 little bit here. Now, this is a terrible matchup for 991 00:50:09.440 --> 00:50:11.559 my boy too. He loses two points to the VBG, 992 00:50:12.440 --> 00:50:14.199 not expecting a lot of good things out of him. 993 00:50:14.599 --> 00:50:16.719 Good matchup for the Jason running game, though, when we 994 00:50:16.800 --> 00:50:18.599 know that's the catalyst and this whole offense. So I 995 00:50:18.639 --> 00:50:21.039 think there's an avenue for them to score those twenty 996 00:50:21.079 --> 00:50:24.559 two points because on the other side, it's a flat 997 00:50:24.639 --> 00:50:27.000 matchup for herbs and a flat matchup for their running game, 998 00:50:27.039 --> 00:50:29.480 So I expect them to do what they normally do. Now, 999 00:50:29.519 --> 00:50:31.119 you've got a couple of buy situations. I'll get to 1000 00:50:31.159 --> 00:50:33.960 in a second. But if you ask me about defense, 1001 00:50:34.079 --> 00:50:38.840 Jackson's defense has been decent this year. However, if I 1002 00:50:38.920 --> 00:50:41.719 asked you Longhorn, since Week seven, who's the third worst 1003 00:50:41.800 --> 00:50:44.000 defense success rate in the entire league? Who would you 1004 00:50:44.000 --> 00:50:44.519 guess that is? 1005 00:50:45.159 --> 00:50:46.920 I'm gonna I'm gonna guess you're gonna say. 1006 00:50:46.800 --> 00:50:50.679 Jacksonville, Jacksonville the only two teams worse in Washington in 1007 00:50:50.719 --> 00:50:54.119 the Bengals. That's pretty fucking bad. And this Chargers defense 1008 00:50:54.280 --> 00:50:57.960 started good, still good. Last four weeks number five, they've 1009 00:50:57.960 --> 00:50:58.599 been Yeah. 1010 00:50:58.440 --> 00:51:01.119 They've been. They've been doing well. And what was the 1011 00:51:01.199 --> 00:51:04.079 week that you said the Jaguars Since that, they've been 1012 00:51:04.079 --> 00:51:10.360 going bad since week seven, since week seven, Okay, yeah, 1013 00:51:10.559 --> 00:51:12.360 this is not good because like you can give them 1014 00:51:12.400 --> 00:51:14.719 past the week seven because they played the Rams the 1015 00:51:14.840 --> 00:51:17.039 week then they had to buy, and then week nine 1016 00:51:17.079 --> 00:51:19.119 to ten it's the fucking Raiders and the Texans with 1017 00:51:19.239 --> 00:51:21.880 Davis Mills like that, you're not trending well. I don't 1018 00:51:21.960 --> 00:51:22.559 like that at all. 1019 00:51:23.159 --> 00:51:25.079 I don't like that at all. I don't like them. 1020 00:51:25.119 --> 00:51:26.840 I don't like the fact that Trevor Larris got a 1021 00:51:26.840 --> 00:51:30.280 bad match up here. Now if you look at the 1022 00:51:30.400 --> 00:51:34.519 bye week though, so the Chargers going into the bye 1023 00:51:35.360 --> 00:51:38.519 so that before the buye away favorites again, That's why 1024 00:51:38.559 --> 00:51:41.280 I don't like the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here twenty and fifteen 1025 00:51:41.320 --> 00:51:44.639 ATS fifty seven covered by one point three points. That's 1026 00:51:44.679 --> 00:51:46.800 on an Amazon of three and a half. We're already 1027 00:51:46.840 --> 00:51:47.119 under that. 1028 00:51:47.239 --> 00:51:50.480 So that's that's almost enough. That's good enough for me 1029 00:51:51.719 --> 00:51:55.800 to for a time breaker. So forget what I said. 1030 00:51:56.239 --> 00:51:58.159 I like the Chargers now because like I was up 1031 00:51:58.199 --> 00:52:00.920 throwing everything else and there was nothing standing out at 1032 00:52:01.000 --> 00:52:03.400 least that with twenty that's thirty five game samples, so 1033 00:52:03.440 --> 00:52:06.320 it's not like a small stample. That's good enough for 1034 00:52:06.400 --> 00:52:08.880 me on a game that I had no way to 1035 00:52:08.960 --> 00:52:11.280 decide which way to go, I'll take that. I'll switch 1036 00:52:11.360 --> 00:52:12.599 my my wan to the Chargers. 1037 00:52:13.559 --> 00:52:15.239 And then if you look at the same thing, but 1038 00:52:15.360 --> 00:52:17.320 you're playing a team not in your division, because a 1039 00:52:17.320 --> 00:52:19.360 lot of these games this week are divisions, well let's 1040 00:52:19.360 --> 00:52:21.719 see what it's not in the division. That's fifteen and 1041 00:52:21.880 --> 00:52:24.760 nine ats covering by two points a game, a line 1042 00:52:24.800 --> 00:52:29.239 of exactly three sixteen and seven straight up sixty nine 1043 00:52:29.280 --> 00:52:31.119 points six percent. That is over that both of them 1044 00:52:31.119 --> 00:52:33.079 are over the average straight up twenty three and ten 1045 00:52:33.639 --> 00:52:35.800 sixteen and seven fifteen to nine sixty two and a 1046 00:52:35.840 --> 00:52:41.559 half percent. But to my numbers point both trends slightly 1047 00:52:41.639 --> 00:52:44.280 over on the big trend eighteen sixteen and one, but 1048 00:52:44.440 --> 00:52:46.599 going over at one point two points per clip, and 1049 00:52:46.679 --> 00:52:48.320 that's in the line of forty five and a half. 1050 00:52:48.840 --> 00:52:50.679 We're only at forty three and a half. The total 1051 00:52:50.760 --> 00:52:53.199 just seems low to me, and I understand because Jacksonville's 1052 00:52:53.280 --> 00:52:55.039 offense has been so bad. But again, there is an 1053 00:52:55.039 --> 00:52:57.840 avenue for ETN to bust a couple of those big 1054 00:52:57.960 --> 00:53:00.119 plays in this game, which will be the difference this 1055 00:53:00.199 --> 00:53:02.840 game gets over or not. I just expect the Chargers 1056 00:53:02.920 --> 00:53:06.440 go score there twenty three to twenty six points somewhere 1057 00:53:06.440 --> 00:53:08.599 around in there. I got a great twenty five. If 1058 00:53:08.679 --> 00:53:11.039 Jacksonville can get in that twenty one range, we're home 1059 00:53:11.119 --> 00:53:13.360 on and over. Anyway I could play, this would be 1060 00:53:13.360 --> 00:53:16.000 the over and no other way at all, because again 1061 00:53:16.599 --> 00:53:18.000 I don't even know what to do with Jacksonville at 1062 00:53:18.000 --> 00:53:19.440 this point of will numbers say it's going to be 1063 00:53:19.519 --> 00:53:21.639 right on the number. It's an easy pass for me. 1064 00:53:22.800 --> 00:53:24.599 Just a side note, has nothing to do with this game. 1065 00:53:26.199 --> 00:53:31.440 I've talked about it in weeks past. The tension and 1066 00:53:31.639 --> 00:53:39.719 the aggravation between this new coach Cohen and this quarterback. 1067 00:53:40.079 --> 00:53:44.920 I think he despises this guy with every ounce of 1068 00:53:45.000 --> 00:53:47.840 his being. Like, and TL's got a huge contract, you know, 1069 00:53:47.920 --> 00:53:49.320 he just got paid not that long ago. 1070 00:53:50.360 --> 00:53:53.199 We see you not how could you not despise the 1071 00:53:53.239 --> 00:53:55.119 guy that you see do things in practice, you see 1072 00:53:55.199 --> 00:53:56.960 do things in the game. You're like, why don't you 1073 00:53:57.119 --> 00:53:59.239 just do that all the fucking time. 1074 00:53:59.800 --> 00:54:02.079 Well, it's not, well, it's not even just that, it's 1075 00:54:02.280 --> 00:54:06.480 it's some of it's some of the I remember talking 1076 00:54:06.480 --> 00:54:08.960 about a few weeks ago where he was literally standing 1077 00:54:09.199 --> 00:54:11.239 next to the next to the ref with his arms like, 1078 00:54:11.360 --> 00:54:13.719 literally right next to the ref could have called time out, 1079 00:54:13.760 --> 00:54:14.920 had a time on his back, and he was just 1080 00:54:15.039 --> 00:54:18.280 watching and his every every part of his bible was like, 1081 00:54:18.360 --> 00:54:20.719 are you actually going to see what's going on and 1082 00:54:20.800 --> 00:54:22.880 call this time out yourself? I'm right here, I could 1083 00:54:22.960 --> 00:54:24.599 do it. He's literally right next to me. I got 1084 00:54:24.679 --> 00:54:26.960 my arms crossed, like I'm a pissed off parent watching 1085 00:54:27.000 --> 00:54:30.440 a child do something stupid. And he didn't do it. 1086 00:54:30.719 --> 00:54:33.079 And he just shook his head when the play went 1087 00:54:33.119 --> 00:54:34.960 too when the playcock went to zero and they got 1088 00:54:35.000 --> 00:54:37.039 the lay a game, Like, I think he hates this 1089 00:54:37.159 --> 00:54:40.760 guy so much. The lack of football passion coming from 1090 00:54:40.840 --> 00:54:43.800 Baker Mayfield. Remember he's he coached Baker Mayfild last year. 1091 00:54:43.800 --> 00:54:47.360 Who all you get with him is passion, love of 1092 00:54:47.400 --> 00:54:51.079 the game, intensity, and he comes to this guy who's 1093 00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:54.000 five inches taller, six inches taller all the time in 1094 00:54:54.039 --> 00:54:58.360 the world, like where is Like I think he I 1095 00:54:58.400 --> 00:55:00.039 think he wants to get rid of the yeo. I 1096 00:55:00.039 --> 00:55:01.280 don't know if he's gonna have to pull with that 1097 00:55:01.360 --> 00:55:04.719 kind of contract to do it. But that kind of tension, now, 1098 00:55:05.199 --> 00:55:07.199 that's not good. You don't want that kind of tension 1099 00:55:07.239 --> 00:55:09.280 between coach and quarterback. You want that, you want that 1100 00:55:09.360 --> 00:55:11.639 to be a marriage. So I think that explains a 1101 00:55:11.679 --> 00:55:13.840 lot of the issues going on with Jacksonville. And that's 1102 00:55:13.920 --> 00:55:15.840 that's more of a story for the offseason because because 1103 00:55:15.840 --> 00:55:18.400 they're not doing anything obviously this year. 1104 00:55:19.639 --> 00:55:23.360 I actually saw as a snake preview of It's kind 1105 00:55:23.400 --> 00:55:25.719 of one of those in season things they interviewed h 1106 00:55:26.000 --> 00:55:29.119 TL LIKEAB like, you know, just give us like thirty 1107 00:55:29.159 --> 00:55:31.800 seconds in your person. Years later, a doctor will tell 1108 00:55:31.920 --> 00:55:34.880 me that I have an IQ of forty eight. And 1109 00:55:35.000 --> 00:55:38.360 then what some people call mentally retarded. 1110 00:55:38.840 --> 00:55:41.599 Yes, I was about to say, I thought you were 1111 00:55:41.679 --> 00:55:43.960 being serious every thing, because I've literally never seen him 1112 00:55:44.000 --> 00:55:46.920 talk about anything like I mean, I don't I have 1113 00:55:47.039 --> 00:55:49.079 to struggle to like even think in my mind what 1114 00:55:49.280 --> 00:55:52.000 his voice even sounds like. I just he doesn't do anything. 1115 00:55:52.039 --> 00:55:55.679 He's just he's a robot who doesn't care about football. 1116 00:55:55.920 --> 00:55:57.119 That's not good for quarterback. 1117 00:55:57.880 --> 00:55:59.559 Here's what I will say. I don't think we've ever 1118 00:55:59.599 --> 00:56:02.920 seen and your girl Taylor spoke in the same place 1119 00:56:03.440 --> 00:56:07.880 same time. I'm just I'm not saying I'm just saying, Yeah, he's. 1120 00:56:07.760 --> 00:56:09.079 The gangly bitch, that's for sure. 1121 00:56:11.360 --> 00:56:15.800 All right, let's move on. Let's go Buffalo. What are 1122 00:56:15.960 --> 00:56:20.480 you doing hosting those Tampa bakers and all that fire? 1123 00:56:21.400 --> 00:56:23.119 Five and a half is what I had this one 1124 00:56:23.159 --> 00:56:29.239 sitting at earlier. I think we're still close to that now. Man, 1125 00:56:30.039 --> 00:56:34.880 this this line, Yeah, it's five and a half across 1126 00:56:34.880 --> 00:56:37.239 the board, but Bota's got it at six juice A 1127 00:56:37.239 --> 00:56:39.639 little bit on the six. I don't know. I don't 1128 00:56:39.639 --> 00:56:41.360 know which way it's gonna go. The money's kind of 1129 00:56:41.400 --> 00:56:45.000 trickling in on Buffalo right now, so they could get 1130 00:56:45.199 --> 00:56:47.119 back It opened at six, what's to five and a half? 1131 00:56:47.639 --> 00:56:49.480 Still five and a half juice, It could get back 1132 00:56:49.519 --> 00:56:52.960 to six weather coming in. I don't know, what do 1133 00:56:53.000 --> 00:56:53.239 you go on? 1134 00:56:53.280 --> 00:56:56.719 This tug of war on this one? And I was 1135 00:56:56.840 --> 00:56:59.719 torn a lot and this one, this is kind of 1136 00:56:59.760 --> 00:57:02.880 like a the week of tie breakers for me and 1137 00:57:03.480 --> 00:57:06.519 liking both sides for different reasons and having to find 1138 00:57:06.960 --> 00:57:09.440 one thing to pull me one way or the other. 1139 00:57:09.519 --> 00:57:12.960 And that's kind of how I handicapped this one. So 1140 00:57:14.199 --> 00:57:15.840 things on both sides are like, first of all, you 1141 00:57:15.880 --> 00:57:18.440 already got Baker as a dog, and Baker is a dog. 1142 00:57:18.679 --> 00:57:20.880 That's a sweet spot. Baker is a dog coming off 1143 00:57:20.960 --> 00:57:24.760 a loss. That's another sweet spot. Fifteen and four career 1144 00:57:24.800 --> 00:57:27.440 as a dog. Baker is seventeen and seven as a 1145 00:57:27.599 --> 00:57:32.000 dog off of a loss ATS. So there's all I mean, 1146 00:57:32.599 --> 00:57:37.000 without even like thinking, you already know Baker dog coming 1147 00:57:37.039 --> 00:57:39.280 up loss. Boom, there's your spot for Tampa Bay. However, 1148 00:57:42.360 --> 00:57:44.960 Josh Allen's got some stats on his side too, coming 1149 00:57:45.000 --> 00:57:47.480 off of because they're off a loss too. So Josh 1150 00:57:47.519 --> 00:57:52.000 Allen coming off a loss at a road loss is 1151 00:57:52.039 --> 00:57:54.679 a big favorite. Next game, he's six and three ATS. 1152 00:57:55.119 --> 00:57:56.960 You'd like that to be a little bit higher, but 1153 00:57:57.119 --> 00:58:00.920 still that's sixty Yeah, that's six and three. Yeah, that's ats. 1154 00:58:01.000 --> 00:58:04.159 So that's nothing to sneeze at. Josh coming off of 1155 00:58:04.239 --> 00:58:07.719 a game where they scored less than seventeen points. The 1156 00:58:07.800 --> 00:58:10.199 next game they're thirteen and six ATS. So when he 1157 00:58:10.320 --> 00:58:12.800 doesn't score a lot of points, and if you're under 1158 00:58:12.840 --> 00:58:16.280 seventeen for a Buffalo offense in his career, that's putrid. 1159 00:58:16.880 --> 00:58:20.199 The next game they show up thirteen and six ats. 1160 00:58:20.760 --> 00:58:23.599 So all these were like tug of war type things 1161 00:58:23.599 --> 00:58:25.559 where I couldn't make my mind until I found this. 1162 00:58:25.840 --> 00:58:29.519 That's even with like the early shitty Josh Allen yours too, 1163 00:58:29.639 --> 00:58:32.000 where they were nineteen points they were lucky to get to. 1164 00:58:32.199 --> 00:58:34.239 So I'd like to see what that is like over 1165 00:58:34.280 --> 00:58:36.559 the last five years, you know what I'm saying, Like, yeah, 1166 00:58:36.880 --> 00:58:38.920 see became John Wayne. 1167 00:58:39.119 --> 00:58:41.360 So and then here's my tiebreaker and why I landed 1168 00:58:41.440 --> 00:58:46.360 on Buffalo and I don't know why as New England 1169 00:58:46.400 --> 00:58:51.599 just dropped the ball with Baker's not running the ball anymore. 1170 00:58:52.119 --> 00:58:57.719 In the last three games he has zero zero yards rushing, 1171 00:58:58.039 --> 00:59:03.360 zero rushing attempts both. What is yes, but this is 1172 00:59:03.480 --> 00:59:05.760 not being reported that he's not on the injury list. 1173 00:59:06.920 --> 00:59:09.800 Something is going on because that is such a bread 1174 00:59:09.880 --> 00:59:12.719 and butter part of their offense him him just doing 1175 00:59:12.800 --> 00:59:16.280 these wild ass third and long second and long like. 1176 00:59:16.400 --> 00:59:22.760 Just spreads yet game We're back to what was the 1177 00:59:22.840 --> 00:59:26.920 other game? Another really good team he had that insane. 1178 00:59:26.599 --> 00:59:32.960 San fran San Francisco. So like, without that, that's gotta 1179 00:59:33.000 --> 00:59:36.519 be a tiebreaker. So you know, I'm not gonna go 1180 00:59:36.599 --> 00:59:38.559 crazy on his game, obviously because because I do have 1181 00:59:38.639 --> 00:59:41.199 respect for those numbers with Baker as a dog coming 1182 00:59:41.239 --> 00:59:43.639 off a loss. But when I when I gotta, I 1183 00:59:43.679 --> 00:59:46.280 gotta pick somebody. If you're in a contest picking every game, 1184 00:59:46.280 --> 00:59:48.960 you got to pick somebody against the spread. That's my tiebreaker. 1185 00:59:49.000 --> 00:59:51.960 I'm gonna be on Buffalo. Try to catch them at 1186 00:59:51.960 --> 00:59:54.280 the minus five and a half. If you agree, If 1187 00:59:54.320 --> 00:59:57.239 you disagree, let it tick up to six. Grab the Bucks. 1188 00:59:58.679 --> 01:00:00.880 Yep, so powering, he said five and a half. Great 1189 01:00:01.000 --> 01:00:03.960 for the Bucks v two those on no call. I've 1190 01:00:04.000 --> 01:00:06.039 got Buffalo winning twenty five to twenty one. So that 1191 01:00:06.079 --> 01:00:08.440 would be Tampa Bay covering. It's under the forty seven 1192 01:00:08.480 --> 01:00:11.519 and a half. Look, it should be a decent game. 1193 01:00:11.639 --> 01:00:13.760 Josh Allen gains a half a point the BPG. It's 1194 01:00:13.800 --> 01:00:16.079 a bad matchup for Baker. He loses the point in half. 1195 01:00:16.119 --> 01:00:19.039 And that's not even counting what Longhorn just said. But 1196 01:00:19.159 --> 01:00:24.480 his running abillity maybe hampered just because maybe he's hurt. However, 1197 01:00:25.400 --> 01:00:27.480 how I can see Tampa Bay covering this game, they 1198 01:00:27.559 --> 01:00:29.119 gained a point and a half of the bbtth the 1199 01:00:29.239 --> 01:00:34.280 rushing Buffalo's rushing defense not good. Tampa Bay Buffalo loses 1200 01:00:34.320 --> 01:00:36.400 the half a point. Tampa Bay Longhorn since week seven 1201 01:00:36.519 --> 01:00:40.079 is the number one success rate rushing defense. They're trending 1202 01:00:40.199 --> 01:00:43.199 up and up and up. So that is what will 1203 01:00:43.320 --> 01:00:46.079 keep them in this game, is not allowing James Cook 1204 01:00:46.159 --> 01:00:48.880 to go off, holding that Buffalo running game and check 1205 01:00:49.000 --> 01:00:51.920 making Josh Allen move the ball down the field. We've 1206 01:00:51.920 --> 01:00:53.920 seen him get frustrated in some of these kind of games, 1207 01:00:54.920 --> 01:00:57.039 felt some interceptions like he did last week in Miami. 1208 01:00:57.960 --> 01:00:59.960 You know, we've seen that happen. So I think that's 1209 01:01:00.039 --> 01:01:02.519 Tampa Bay's path to victory is just stifling that running game, 1210 01:01:02.519 --> 01:01:05.159 which they absolutely should be able to do. However, on 1211 01:01:05.239 --> 01:01:07.000 the other side, they should be able run the ball well. 1212 01:01:07.039 --> 01:01:10.000 But with Baker gritting out so badly, I can't go 1213 01:01:10.159 --> 01:01:14.079 crazy on the Tampa Bay side either, because if Baker's 1214 01:01:14.159 --> 01:01:18.199 not great, it's gonna be very tough to cover that 1215 01:01:18.320 --> 01:01:20.760 five and a half six points. If he can beat 1216 01:01:20.800 --> 01:01:22.960 my numbers a little bit, they can run the ball really, 1217 01:01:23.000 --> 01:01:25.639 really well and really shut down that Buffalo running game, 1218 01:01:25.880 --> 01:01:27.519 which is only half a point down, so it's not 1219 01:01:27.639 --> 01:01:31.039 like crazy shutdown. But if it gets even better than that, 1220 01:01:31.199 --> 01:01:33.159 then yeah, I think I think Tampa Bay could be 1221 01:01:33.199 --> 01:01:34.920 a live dog in this game. If all those things 1222 01:01:35.559 --> 01:01:37.920 come to fruition. Overall, it's great. And I got Buffalo 1223 01:01:37.960 --> 01:01:42.079 winning by four slightly under the total, which if you 1224 01:01:42.159 --> 01:01:44.079 look how Tampa Bay's offense has been going lately and 1225 01:01:44.159 --> 01:01:46.559 Buffalo's offense is been going lately, it's not a stretch 1226 01:01:46.599 --> 01:01:48.119 to think that they don't score forty eight points in 1227 01:01:48.159 --> 01:01:48.519 this game. 1228 01:01:49.639 --> 01:01:55.920 So and lean under buck. Irvin has been LP the 1229 01:01:56.079 --> 01:02:01.360 last couple of practices, so limited limited, that's trending towards 1230 01:02:01.559 --> 01:02:04.800 maybe he plays. So if he gets announced, if he's a, 1231 01:02:05.000 --> 01:02:08.360 if he's a full participant in Friday's practice, look out 1232 01:02:08.519 --> 01:02:10.480 that this this line will drop back down to five 1233 01:02:10.519 --> 01:02:13.079 and a half for sure, maybe maybe even five because 1234 01:02:13.119 --> 01:02:16.400 he is a. You know, I don't think we quite 1235 01:02:16.480 --> 01:02:19.000 understand how important he is to that Tima Bay offense. 1236 01:02:19.840 --> 01:02:21.880 He's everything on this one because they're only their only 1237 01:02:22.000 --> 01:02:25.199 path to covering because it's not a Baker game on 1238 01:02:25.320 --> 01:02:28.199 this one. So unless Baker's just pulling shut out of 1239 01:02:28.199 --> 01:02:30.159 his ass what she absolutely can, and we've seen him do, 1240 01:02:30.840 --> 01:02:33.440 but we don't generally see the Baker do there for 1241 01:02:33.480 --> 01:02:36.800 four for four quarters, that's when you see the Baker. Eventually, 1242 01:02:36.880 --> 01:02:40.239 the dust of the pick does get the fumble, especially. 1243 01:02:39.880 --> 01:02:42.519 If he's not running, especially if he's not running. 1244 01:02:42.800 --> 01:02:51.960 Absolutely absolutely all right, let's move on to those Arizona 1245 01:02:52.360 --> 01:02:57.480 midgetless Cardinals hosting. Oh my god, the man is finally 1246 01:02:58.199 --> 01:02:58.960 coming back. 1247 01:02:59.159 --> 01:03:03.400 I can't believe this, big dick. I cannot believe this. 1248 01:03:04.400 --> 01:03:09.639 And this line didn't move a fucking inch. So let's see. 1249 01:03:09.679 --> 01:03:11.760 It's just still should be sitting at three. It is 1250 01:03:11.840 --> 01:03:16.000 sitting are yeah three three with no juice across the board, 1251 01:03:16.239 --> 01:03:19.760 is three points road favorite for the forty nine ers. 1252 01:03:20.159 --> 01:03:24.440 Again, another game I'm completely torn on. And I don't 1253 01:03:25.079 --> 01:03:27.880 actually this brock Party news. I actually don't like it. 1254 01:03:28.079 --> 01:03:31.480 I I thought, and and maybe it's just a bad 1255 01:03:31.559 --> 01:03:34.079 read by me, but I thought that Shanahan because of 1256 01:03:34.119 --> 01:03:36.679 his love of mac Jones and wanted to draft him. 1257 01:03:37.440 --> 01:03:38.840 I thought he was gonna be like, you know what, 1258 01:03:40.199 --> 01:03:43.440 mac Jones is playing, well, why rush party back? He's 1259 01:03:43.480 --> 01:03:47.079 obviously dealing with with that toe injury. This is risky 1260 01:03:47.159 --> 01:03:50.159 to me because because party is gonna he's definitely not 1261 01:03:50.199 --> 01:03:52.239 gonna be one hundred percent. He's not a hundre. He's 1262 01:03:52.239 --> 01:03:54.760 definitely not one hundred percent, and he's definitely gonna be rusty. 1263 01:03:55.840 --> 01:03:58.760 With that said, sand Frand is about as healthy as 1264 01:03:58.760 --> 01:04:01.280 they're ever gonna get this year. Obviously, they're missing players 1265 01:04:01.280 --> 01:04:02.840 that are done for the year, you can't do anything 1266 01:04:02.840 --> 01:04:04.559 about that. But as far as like players that were 1267 01:04:04.599 --> 01:04:07.719 like you know in and out Ricky pearsol Is coming back, 1268 01:04:07.960 --> 01:04:10.800 this is as healthy as they're gonna get this year 1269 01:04:10.960 --> 01:04:14.159 right now, assuming Brock party Is is going to come 1270 01:04:14.199 --> 01:04:17.360 back and play, so ah Man and in the Harrison 1271 01:04:17.519 --> 01:04:22.519 Marvin Harrison being out for for the Arizona you know, 1272 01:04:22.639 --> 01:04:26.960 you want to say this, what's that? Yeah, Fenocidis. So 1273 01:04:27.079 --> 01:04:29.159 that's that's tough break for them. I wanted I wanted 1274 01:04:29.199 --> 01:04:31.760 to be on Arizona much in the in the second 1275 01:04:31.800 --> 01:04:36.719 half of the year. And you know what San France 1276 01:04:36.760 --> 01:04:39.360 coming off at I know, Sam Fran coming off a loss, 1277 01:04:39.440 --> 01:04:41.800 and and I did write down what is the McCaffrey 1278 01:04:42.840 --> 01:04:45.719 advantage situation this because that's that's like I want to 1279 01:04:45.760 --> 01:04:47.039 be on San Fran. I need you to tell me 1280 01:04:47.119 --> 01:04:49.199 this is a plus matchup for him if it is. 1281 01:04:50.199 --> 01:04:52.719 Despite the Party news, which I do not like. I 1282 01:04:52.800 --> 01:04:55.039 wanted it to be MATC Jones, I will I will 1283 01:04:55.079 --> 01:04:55.960 still be on San. 1284 01:04:55.840 --> 01:04:58.480 Fran So it wasn't even to great this game. But 1285 01:04:58.519 --> 01:04:59.960 I knew you're gonna ask for that, so at least 1286 01:05:00.079 --> 01:05:05.679 created the rushing part out for Party, I mean for McCaffrey. Uh, 1287 01:05:06.000 --> 01:05:08.760 it's a flat matchup for him, so he should get 1288 01:05:08.760 --> 01:05:13.760 about what he gets, which is probably enough in this game. 1289 01:05:14.159 --> 01:05:17.159 Yeah, that doesn't. That doesn't make my balls team. When 1290 01:05:17.199 --> 01:05:19.039 you're saying like that, you're not You're not saying it 1291 01:05:19.119 --> 01:05:19.679 with your chest. 1292 01:05:20.360 --> 01:05:20.599 Yeah. 1293 01:05:20.800 --> 01:05:23.719 Here's the other thing too, is like this San Fan 1294 01:05:23.840 --> 01:05:26.480 defense has been so bad, dude, of the last four weeks, 1295 01:05:26.639 --> 01:05:30.039 since all these injuries. I mean, look, big prompts to 1296 01:05:30.039 --> 01:05:32.719 their defensive coordinator. He's held this thing together with fucking 1297 01:05:33.679 --> 01:05:35.840 you know, bailing twine and every other fucking thing he 1298 01:05:35.880 --> 01:05:40.519 could for four weeks. They're twenty seventh in Russian success rate. 1299 01:05:40.599 --> 01:05:43.480 Let's see, they're in dropback success rate, oh, twenty nine, 1300 01:05:44.039 --> 01:05:46.599 so basically there's a twenty eight. They're the fourth worst 1301 01:05:46.679 --> 01:05:49.760 defense in the NFL for the last month. So that's 1302 01:05:49.800 --> 01:05:51.800 the kind of success that I think, or the kind 1303 01:05:51.840 --> 01:05:55.079 of spot where I didn't like the Cardinals last week. 1304 01:05:55.519 --> 01:05:57.880 I was on Seattle because I didn't think Ja Cobb 1305 01:05:58.000 --> 01:06:01.559 Set versus a really good defense could have that same success. 1306 01:06:01.719 --> 01:06:04.599 Now against this defense, I think Jacoby Set could have 1307 01:06:04.719 --> 01:06:07.000 plenty of success. Now he is missing Marvin Harrison. That 1308 01:06:07.119 --> 01:06:10.719 does hurt. That hurts he got in that's his number 1309 01:06:10.760 --> 01:06:12.800 one dude. He's actually using him, you know, like you 1310 01:06:12.840 --> 01:06:15.119 should use the number one receiver, well. 1311 01:06:15.039 --> 01:06:17.679 Him, him and McBride, you know, him and McBride. 1312 01:06:19.159 --> 01:06:21.880 Like McBride's always no matter who start. But like I mean, 1313 01:06:22.039 --> 01:06:24.480 Marvin Harrison's being criminally underused with the midget in there 1314 01:06:24.519 --> 01:06:27.480 because he can't see him. But Jacob Russett was targeting 1315 01:06:27.559 --> 01:06:31.119 him specifically, which is what you should do. And against 1316 01:06:31.119 --> 01:06:33.039 the bad defense like this. If Marvin Harrison is playing, 1317 01:06:33.039 --> 01:06:35.639 I would already bet the Partinals, there's no doubt about it. 1318 01:06:35.760 --> 01:06:39.519 But without him, with Broad coming back, it's there's too 1319 01:06:39.559 --> 01:06:41.559 many unknowns in this. As you know, his other best 1320 01:06:41.599 --> 01:06:43.519 to be made. I'm this is just to stay away 1321 01:06:43.559 --> 01:06:46.840 from me. Yeah, I still I didn't get the slam 1322 01:06:46.960 --> 01:06:48.679 dunk rating from McCaffrey. 1323 01:06:48.760 --> 01:06:51.360 So I'm like that, Yeah, even with us spending five 1324 01:06:51.440 --> 01:06:53.519 minutes going back and forth in this game, I still 1325 01:06:54.199 --> 01:06:56.559 I don't have a great feel either way. I really don't, 1326 01:06:56.679 --> 01:06:59.320 because because I do think I do think Brissette's gonna 1327 01:06:59.320 --> 01:07:02.559 be able to sit back there and find his targets 1328 01:07:02.599 --> 01:07:04.760 and and then and this is just gonna be and 1329 01:07:05.079 --> 01:07:07.960 if you're getting the three points, and I just I 1330 01:07:10.239 --> 01:07:11.920 don't like it. Stay away from this one unless you 1331 01:07:12.039 --> 01:07:13.639 unless you're forced to stay away from this one. 1332 01:07:14.360 --> 01:07:16.199 All right, let's move on to a game against the 1333 01:07:16.280 --> 01:07:18.360 two teams that I just said on Monday that I 1334 01:07:18.480 --> 01:07:21.840 thought him separated themselves the rest of this pile of 1335 01:07:22.119 --> 01:07:25.800 mediocrity in the NFC, and that's those Los Angeles Rams 1336 01:07:26.199 --> 01:07:31.440 hosting those Seattle Seahawks. Now this one, uh, this line 1337 01:07:31.480 --> 01:07:36.480 has moved a little bit. Let's see, at least the 1338 01:07:36.559 --> 01:07:40.119 juice had been bouncing around so open at three and 1339 01:07:40.239 --> 01:07:41.920 that's kind of coming back. Now it's three and a 1340 01:07:41.960 --> 01:07:45.199 half only at Bobada, and that's that's very heavily juice. 1341 01:07:46.079 --> 01:07:49.239 Pretty much three juice kind of mixed. Man, It's just 1342 01:07:49.400 --> 01:07:51.360 it's kind of been bouncing back and forth. The betting 1343 01:07:51.400 --> 01:07:53.559 Mark has been very torn on this one, so I 1344 01:07:53.599 --> 01:07:54.719 don't know what you got on this game. 1345 01:07:56.000 --> 01:08:01.639 I am shockingly because Seattle is my NFC the Championship 1346 01:08:01.840 --> 01:08:04.800 Game participant. I don't have them winning going in the 1347 01:08:04.840 --> 01:08:07.280 Super Bowl, but I've got them in the Championship game, 1348 01:08:07.320 --> 01:08:10.559 picked them and win this division. I love the Rams 1349 01:08:10.599 --> 01:08:13.000 in this spot. I think that the Rams are set 1350 01:08:13.079 --> 01:08:18.720 up to exposed this defense. Who when they played past 1351 01:08:18.760 --> 01:08:20.520 them when they play a real quarterback And I'm trying 1352 01:08:20.560 --> 01:08:22.399 to pull that up because I had that kind of 1353 01:08:22.680 --> 01:08:26.680 in my notes to pull up. But when they played 1354 01:08:26.760 --> 01:08:30.199 like a Baker, When Baker played Seattle, Baker had his way. 1355 01:08:30.439 --> 01:08:42.199 When they played let's see who's the other, Well, well, 1356 01:08:43.159 --> 01:08:46.359 I guess, I guess. Have they played anybody besides Baker 1357 01:08:46.439 --> 01:08:48.760 that's a good quarterback? Jesus, look at their list of 1358 01:08:48.880 --> 01:08:51.680 quarterbacks they've played. They haven't played it, Okay, So that's 1359 01:08:51.720 --> 01:08:54.199 the point. They played one real quarterback and they got 1360 01:08:54.279 --> 01:08:57.720 fucking toasted. So yeah, I'm gonna be on the Rams here. 1361 01:08:58.399 --> 01:09:01.000 These are two great teams. I think these are both 1362 01:09:01.039 --> 01:09:03.079 teams that could that could be in the Ncrater Championship Game. 1363 01:09:03.600 --> 01:09:06.359 And they're both seven and two straight up. They're both 1364 01:09:06.439 --> 01:09:09.600 seven and two at S So this is definitely one 1365 01:09:09.640 --> 01:09:11.079 of the games of the week to watch. But I 1366 01:09:11.279 --> 01:09:16.560 think I think this matchup favors the Rams and and 1367 01:09:16.800 --> 01:09:18.159 and I'm only in that way, and I got a 1368 01:09:18.239 --> 01:09:21.439 couple of trends that that that back to meet up. 1369 01:09:21.680 --> 01:09:24.680 McVeigh is twelve and five ats in his career versus 1370 01:09:24.760 --> 01:09:27.960 Seattle with Stafford four and one ats. 1371 01:09:28.239 --> 01:09:28.560 Rams. 1372 01:09:29.960 --> 01:09:32.239 Yes, so, and we've talked about this so much in 1373 01:09:32.319 --> 01:09:35.479 the past. In this division, you cannot ignore it. It's 1374 01:09:35.600 --> 01:09:37.880 like it's you're you have to have a reason to 1375 01:09:37.920 --> 01:09:39.720 go against that, and you have to deem good reason. 1376 01:09:39.920 --> 01:09:42.640 And I don't see one here, so yeah. And the 1377 01:09:42.680 --> 01:09:46.359 other one was Seattle hasn't played any opposing good quarterbacks 1378 01:09:46.439 --> 01:09:50.159 besides Baker, who lit their ass up. So yeah, it's 1379 01:09:50.199 --> 01:09:53.119 all Rams for me, reluctantly because because I love Seattle. 1380 01:09:54.560 --> 01:09:56.760 Yeah, I thought that I was gonna be with you 1381 01:09:56.920 --> 01:10:00.319 on this. I'm now torn just going there right now. 1382 01:10:00.520 --> 01:10:02.319 First of all, it's a no by the Power Rings, 1383 01:10:02.399 --> 01:10:05.680 no cob by the b two. I've got Seattle grading 1384 01:10:05.720 --> 01:10:09.439 out to win twenty one to twenty damn really both 1385 01:10:09.479 --> 01:10:11.399 of these, yeah, both of them. But here's the thing, 1386 01:10:11.720 --> 01:10:13.800 this is a terrible matchup about these offenses. Again, I 1387 01:10:13.840 --> 01:10:16.880 can only go off what they've done and the grades 1388 01:10:16.960 --> 01:10:20.640 and who they've played. Stafford loses two points, Sammy d 1389 01:10:20.840 --> 01:10:22.800 lose a point and a half. Rams was a point 1390 01:10:22.840 --> 01:10:24.720 and a half in the running game. Seattle lose a 1391 01:10:24.760 --> 01:10:27.600 half a point. I just, man, I think this is 1392 01:10:27.600 --> 01:10:29.680 gonna be a fucking good, old fashioned slobber knocker. I 1393 01:10:29.760 --> 01:10:31.399 know the totals high, I've got it going. 1394 01:10:31.920 --> 01:10:34.479 It could be. I could see that. I could see 1395 01:10:34.520 --> 01:10:35.159 that happening too. 1396 01:10:35.439 --> 01:10:38.079 You know, it's kind of like that. It's kind of 1397 01:10:38.119 --> 01:10:42.439 like the we talked about the Philly game and Detroit 1398 01:10:42.640 --> 01:10:46.199 last week, No Phillian. Who was it was the Philly Detroit, 1399 01:10:46.359 --> 01:10:48.880 No Philly in green Bay? Yeah, And you're like, I 1400 01:10:48.920 --> 01:10:50.479 don't see how green Bay scores. I don't see how 1401 01:10:50.520 --> 01:10:52.640 fucking Philly scores. I guess what. Neither one who fucking scores? 1402 01:10:52.720 --> 01:10:55.000 So it kind of has that feel to be right 1403 01:10:55.039 --> 01:10:56.439 here with two really good teams. 1404 01:10:56.720 --> 01:10:59.000 Well, but we we can both see them. I could 1405 01:10:59.000 --> 01:11:01.760 see both of them. I could see it scoring going 1406 01:11:01.840 --> 01:11:04.399 crazy too. And this one was not like, not quite 1407 01:11:04.479 --> 01:11:05.079 like last week. 1408 01:11:06.199 --> 01:11:08.560 It's just it's such a bad matchup for and these 1409 01:11:08.560 --> 01:11:12.800 teams know each other so well. Look, I mean it's 1410 01:11:13.399 --> 01:11:14.880 to me on this one. It comes down who you 1411 01:11:14.880 --> 01:11:16.760 trust more. Because you've got one guy on one side 1412 01:11:16.760 --> 01:11:19.119 that's the offensive dude. You got the other guy on 1413 01:11:19.119 --> 01:11:23.119 the other side, McDonald, who's obviously the defensive dude. I mean, 1414 01:11:23.199 --> 01:11:25.399 I don't this this chess match is gonna be so 1415 01:11:25.600 --> 01:11:29.239 good on both sides. You know which quarterback you trust more. 1416 01:11:29.359 --> 01:11:31.880 We've seen what Sammy d does against a good team 1417 01:11:32.439 --> 01:11:35.199 when he's facing a quarterback that's better than him, Like 1418 01:11:35.239 --> 01:11:38.439 you talked about Baker obviously established better than him, seeing 1419 01:11:38.479 --> 01:11:41.840 him kind of wilt in those situations. So I don't 1420 01:11:41.880 --> 01:11:45.720 feel great about Seattle. I was ready to fucking hammer 1421 01:11:45.840 --> 01:11:48.159 the Rams. I thought the money would come in on Seattle. 1422 01:11:48.640 --> 01:11:51.079 I thought this would be two and a half easily 1423 01:11:51.119 --> 01:11:53.279 by the time we got to the podcast. It has 1424 01:11:53.359 --> 01:11:55.439 not happened. It's been a tugg O world all week long, 1425 01:11:55.520 --> 01:11:57.960 the money coming in both sides in the marketplace. I 1426 01:11:58.000 --> 01:12:01.399 think everybody's kind of feeling how we're feeling, Like, I 1427 01:12:01.399 --> 01:12:04.840 don't know, man, Seattle's been great. The Rams have surged 1428 01:12:04.920 --> 01:12:07.039 to great. They didn't start out great. They've surged great. 1429 01:12:07.640 --> 01:12:10.000 Which which one of these is a paper tiger, and 1430 01:12:10.039 --> 01:12:11.880 which one of these is actually gonna be the team 1431 01:12:12.800 --> 01:12:14.720 I'm excited to watch it. I know that there's you know, 1432 01:12:14.800 --> 01:12:16.840 I mean this week is one of them. For sure. 1433 01:12:17.000 --> 01:12:19.399 You say they didn't start off right. They they've got 1434 01:12:19.479 --> 01:12:21.880 two losses. The one was the fluke one to Philly 1435 01:12:21.960 --> 01:12:24.000 early in the year easily could have been a win, 1436 01:12:24.279 --> 01:12:27.479 and the other one was the fluke were not fluke, 1437 01:12:27.560 --> 01:12:30.920 but they were the thumb on the goal line against 1438 01:12:30.920 --> 01:12:34.199 San Franz. Again say it, so, you know, like they 1439 01:12:34.279 --> 01:12:37.960 could easily easily be undefeated right now and and clearly 1440 01:12:38.000 --> 01:12:39.920 the best team in the NFL. So, I mean, you 1441 01:12:39.960 --> 01:12:42.239 don't win every game, these these tossed up games that 1442 01:12:42.319 --> 01:12:44.039 they could go either way. You're not gonna win every 1443 01:12:44.079 --> 01:12:45.680 one of them. But that's something to be said that 1444 01:12:45.720 --> 01:12:48.319 there are only two losses easily could have been wins 1445 01:12:48.359 --> 01:12:50.840 for them, and if you go to Seattle, let's see, 1446 01:12:50.840 --> 01:12:55.199 their two losses were the opening opening one in San Francisco, 1447 01:12:55.319 --> 01:12:57.760 which it was the close game that that one definitely 1448 01:12:57.760 --> 01:13:00.279 could have gone either way, and then obviously the close 1449 01:13:00.359 --> 01:13:03.760 game against Tampa Bay. So these are two Juggernauts. 1450 01:13:03.800 --> 01:13:06.640 I mean, these are yeah, both these seams are really 1451 01:13:06.720 --> 01:13:09.600 fucking good. Yeah. If you look at the way to 1452 01:13:09.640 --> 01:13:12.199 the last four weeks, so trending bull these Devens is 1453 01:13:12.239 --> 01:13:14.319 trending down a bit. But again, I think with Seattle, 1454 01:13:14.600 --> 01:13:16.960 a lot of that noise gets mixed in with They've 1455 01:13:17.000 --> 01:13:20.840 been blowing people out left right, and the rams kind 1456 01:13:20.880 --> 01:13:24.239 of too. So you know, well, we'll see how that. 1457 01:13:24.680 --> 01:13:26.079 I'm excited to see how it plays out. 1458 01:13:26.199 --> 01:13:28.239 Oh, for sure. Game of the week, for sure. 1459 01:13:29.359 --> 01:13:31.199 All right, let's move on to Wow. I thought this 1460 01:13:31.239 --> 01:13:36.600 is a game of week against those Cleveland Browns, those Ravens. Uh, 1461 01:13:36.800 --> 01:13:40.279 this one, this line is fucking banana sandwich. Is that 1462 01:13:40.840 --> 01:13:45.039 I'm seeing nines in some places, which is ridiculous. I'm 1463 01:13:45.079 --> 01:13:48.800 seeing eights, I'm seeing seven and a half. I don't 1464 01:13:48.840 --> 01:13:50.680 even know what to say. At the seven and a half, 1465 01:13:50.760 --> 01:13:53.840 it's basically even everywhere. At the eighties, even at the nine, 1466 01:13:54.319 --> 01:13:55.880 it's plus money in the Browns. I don't know who 1467 01:13:56.520 --> 01:13:59.800 bet online has got somebody's fucking slammed Ravens that book. 1468 01:13:59.840 --> 01:14:01.760 So that's the only explanation I got for that one. 1469 01:14:03.319 --> 01:14:04.800 I mean, I guess we'll call it seven and a 1470 01:14:04.840 --> 01:14:06.920 half long horn. It's kind of the consensus across the 1471 01:14:07.239 --> 01:14:09.600 at least of all the even money books in the 1472 01:14:09.720 --> 01:14:11.680 Sharper books at seven and a half. So let's say 1473 01:14:11.680 --> 01:14:14.199 seven and a half Ravens Road of Favorites. 1474 01:14:15.199 --> 01:14:17.920 Yeah, well, I'll tell you what I'm seeing. I'm seeing 1475 01:14:18.159 --> 01:14:35.960 the danger zone game of the week. And not only 1476 01:14:36.239 --> 01:14:38.239 do I want the do I want the points the 1477 01:14:38.279 --> 01:14:42.680 plus points? I want to I want two units. And 1478 01:14:42.680 --> 01:14:44.439 I'll explain why I'm gonna sort heavy on this game. 1479 01:14:44.439 --> 01:14:46.199 I want two units on the plus is an eight 1480 01:14:46.319 --> 01:14:47.520 or eight and a half? Consensus? 1481 01:14:48.840 --> 01:14:50.079 Seven and a half the census? 1482 01:14:50.880 --> 01:14:56.960 No way, it's seven seven and a half. Yeah, um, yeah, 1483 01:14:57.439 --> 01:14:59.159 let's just let's just go hard on it. Seven and 1484 01:14:59.159 --> 01:15:01.880 a half, two units and then give me a half 1485 01:15:02.039 --> 01:15:08.720 unit on money line half unit on money line. Okay, Well, 1486 01:15:08.800 --> 01:15:12.119 and here's why, here's why. We've seen some fuckery with 1487 01:15:12.359 --> 01:15:16.479 with Lamar and this this horror ball coaching staff, and 1488 01:15:19.680 --> 01:15:21.920 we've seen we'll see that, we've seen the fucker with 1489 01:15:22.000 --> 01:15:25.520 this team and their quarterback situation. Lamar's dealing with the 1490 01:15:25.600 --> 01:15:29.439 injury again and it and it's been quiet. It's been like, well, 1491 01:15:29.479 --> 01:15:32.239 he's probably gonna play, likely gonna play, and he is 1492 01:15:32.359 --> 01:15:35.199 likely gonna play. But because they have they've got no 1493 01:15:35.279 --> 01:15:40.279 more games to bitch. No, it's an actual injury. He got. 1494 01:15:40.319 --> 01:15:43.479 He got banged up in the game last week, but 1495 01:15:43.640 --> 01:15:45.720 he's got He can't set this one out. They got 1496 01:15:45.800 --> 01:15:50.039 no more room to wiggle here. But if he does play, 1497 01:15:50.439 --> 01:15:53.479 he's still gonna be hurt. And if you're a limited 1498 01:15:53.680 --> 01:15:55.720 we we just talked about Baker not running the ball 1499 01:15:55.800 --> 01:15:58.039 and what that what that does to his game. If 1500 01:15:58.159 --> 01:16:00.680 Lamar is hurt and he's limited in in his running 1501 01:16:00.720 --> 01:16:04.159 game against that defensive line in Cleveland at home, remember 1502 01:16:04.239 --> 01:16:06.640 this is this is Cleveland sweet spot. They're back at home. 1503 01:16:06.920 --> 01:16:09.399 This is where they they play good defense, not shitty 1504 01:16:09.439 --> 01:16:13.479 defense on the road. This is a problem. Baltimore. You 1505 01:16:13.600 --> 01:16:15.600 got a problem if Lamar is not running the ball 1506 01:16:15.640 --> 01:16:17.920 and not effective running the ball against that pass rush. 1507 01:16:18.880 --> 01:16:21.600 I'm just saying, because like the Miami game last week 1508 01:16:22.079 --> 01:16:26.680 in Buffalo, I'm just saying, weird things out there. Weird 1509 01:16:26.760 --> 01:16:29.319 thing is gonna happen in these type of spots. This 1510 01:16:29.359 --> 01:16:32.680 is a this is a division game, huge dog at 1511 01:16:32.720 --> 01:16:36.920 home and look, okay, I'm gonna throw it to you 1512 01:16:37.000 --> 01:16:39.279 because I've said my piece, I'm already heavy on it. 1513 01:16:39.319 --> 01:16:41.119 I just put it all out there. So what do 1514 01:16:41.159 --> 01:16:42.000 you got disagreement? 1515 01:16:42.720 --> 01:16:46.439 He slopped it out there on us. No power reig 1516 01:16:46.600 --> 01:16:50.399 is a no call. This line is perfect. Thirty eight 1517 01:16:50.399 --> 01:16:53.359 and a half is disgusting total. I got Baltimore winning 1518 01:16:53.359 --> 01:16:56.560 this game thirteen. That's not a call. It's more within 1519 01:16:56.600 --> 01:16:58.520 half a point or right on market if you've got 1520 01:16:58.560 --> 01:17:02.119 the heat. Uh thirty four points though quite a bit 1521 01:17:02.159 --> 01:17:05.560 to the under. Now, it's not a It's not the 1522 01:17:05.600 --> 01:17:07.560 worst matchup I've ever seen for Jillan Gabriel, say that 1523 01:17:07.600 --> 01:17:10.039 he'll lose a half a point, but any great matchup 1524 01:17:10.079 --> 01:17:12.800 for Lamar, he's that it's flat, so he's nothing special. 1525 01:17:13.119 --> 01:17:17.159 I like that it's a flat matchup for the Baltimore 1526 01:17:17.439 --> 01:17:21.239 for the Browns running game. Derrick Henry in that running 1527 01:17:21.279 --> 01:17:23.800 game loses a point and a half of the versus 1528 01:17:23.840 --> 01:17:27.359 the Cleveland defense. Now here's my caveat to this, And 1529 01:17:27.399 --> 01:17:29.159 this is the defense I was talking about as I 1530 01:17:29.279 --> 01:17:32.560 was looking up like the splits, This Cleveland pass defense 1531 01:17:32.760 --> 01:17:37.159 is slipping hard hard. They are only above average at 1532 01:17:37.199 --> 01:17:40.119 this point, league average at cover one. That's all They're 1533 01:17:40.279 --> 01:17:42.439 that's all they're really good at anymore. They're down to 1534 01:17:42.600 --> 01:17:45.800 fourteenth and EPA and eleventh and success rate against the past. 1535 01:17:45.840 --> 01:17:48.720 They were like number fucking one or two the whole 1536 01:17:48.840 --> 01:17:51.359 first half of the season, and since Week eight against 1537 01:17:51.359 --> 01:17:54.359 the pass they're eighteenth in e PA and sixteenth and 1538 01:17:54.439 --> 01:17:57.359 success rate. I don't remember them playing a lot of 1539 01:17:57.439 --> 01:18:02.079 fucking juggernauts lately, So what what ever's happening? They're slipping 1540 01:18:02.239 --> 01:18:05.239 real fucking hard. I mean, I know what's happening because 1541 01:18:05.279 --> 01:18:07.359 we watched the games. They can't score the ball. When 1542 01:18:07.359 --> 01:18:09.479 you can't score the fucking ball, it is very fucking 1543 01:18:09.520 --> 01:18:14.079 difficult to play great defense when you're always defending plus territory, 1544 01:18:14.760 --> 01:18:17.319 the opponent's always in plus territory, the opponent always has 1545 01:18:17.359 --> 01:18:20.520 the fucking ball. Because you can't fucking get first downs, 1546 01:18:20.560 --> 01:18:23.800 you can't fucking score points. This defense is tired. This 1547 01:18:23.920 --> 01:18:26.840 defense is fucking it's fighting hard, and it is good. 1548 01:18:26.920 --> 01:18:29.359 It's really good, it's really talented. But over the last 1549 01:18:29.520 --> 01:18:32.640 four weeks they are slipping badly. This was a top 1550 01:18:32.720 --> 01:18:35.319 three defense the whole first half of the year. Second 1551 01:18:35.319 --> 01:18:38.840 half the year, they're a blow average defense. Can Lamar 1552 01:18:38.880 --> 01:18:41.119 take advantage of that. If he's hurt, I don't know. 1553 01:18:41.319 --> 01:18:43.319 But what I do know is they don't grade out 1554 01:18:43.319 --> 01:18:45.279 well against them, but they still score twenty one points. 1555 01:18:45.279 --> 01:18:46.920 And if you score twenty one points against the Browns, 1556 01:18:47.119 --> 01:18:49.079 you're gonna win the game. You're gonna fucking win the. 1557 01:18:49.079 --> 01:18:54.520 Game, definitely. So probably don't cover, Probably don't covert cover. 1558 01:18:54.600 --> 01:18:55.920 I got I've got to run on the number. So 1559 01:18:55.920 --> 01:18:58.000 I don't disagree with your I mean, there's a zero 1560 01:18:58.079 --> 01:19:00.359 chance out ever LA seven and a half in Baltimore game. 1561 01:19:00.560 --> 01:19:03.560 I've done that before, and I've learned my lesson, and 1562 01:19:03.640 --> 01:19:07.960 I've done it against like fucking can he Pickett and 1563 01:19:08.079 --> 01:19:10.479 still learn my lesson, Like I've done that. I'm not 1564 01:19:10.600 --> 01:19:13.439 doing that ever again, So I get it. But yeah, 1565 01:19:13.600 --> 01:19:16.239 as far as winning the game, oh, it's gonna say, 1566 01:19:16.279 --> 01:19:21.199 it's gonna take a I mean von Miller, not von Miller, 1567 01:19:21.279 --> 01:19:23.840 but it's my boy Garrett. 1568 01:19:24.640 --> 01:19:28.760 Well it'll it'll take that. And Lamar just having one 1569 01:19:28.800 --> 01:19:30.680 of those like Lamar, what the fuck are you doing 1570 01:19:30.800 --> 01:19:34.359 type game, which which happens all all the time. Yeah, 1571 01:19:34.479 --> 01:19:37.439 this happens all the time. I was just looking at the. 1572 01:19:37.439 --> 01:19:40.600 Pis usually in this matchup Baltimore is like, at this 1573 01:19:40.680 --> 01:19:42.279 point of the season, they're seven and two. 1574 01:19:42.720 --> 01:19:44.920 Right, and not desperate, right? 1575 01:19:45.239 --> 01:19:45.880 Not desperate? 1576 01:19:46.439 --> 01:19:48.960 Yeah, that that's a factor for sure. And I was 1577 01:19:48.960 --> 01:19:51.600 just looking at the PFF scores on Cleveland's defense, and 1578 01:19:52.039 --> 01:19:55.560 it's lights out across the board, except for to your point, 1579 01:19:56.039 --> 01:20:01.199 the cornerbacks, which they're really good cornerbacks historically in the past. 1580 01:20:01.239 --> 01:20:04.199 Denzel Award and Tyson Campbell. These are two guys that 1581 01:20:04.279 --> 01:20:06.279 at different points over the last four or five years, 1582 01:20:06.600 --> 01:20:09.439 just because I watched PFF so much in the greats 1583 01:20:10.199 --> 01:20:14.119 top five, top eight type cornerbacks at certain points over 1584 01:20:14.119 --> 01:20:18.119 the last four or five years, it's sometimes it's just 1585 01:20:18.199 --> 01:20:21.039 so weird when you watch these scores and really good 1586 01:20:21.119 --> 01:20:24.800 players who for whatever reason aren't kind of clicking for 1587 01:20:25.159 --> 01:20:29.239 a certain year. But across the board everywhere else on 1588 01:20:29.319 --> 01:20:32.760 this Cleveland defense, it's really fucking good. So I think 1589 01:20:32.760 --> 01:20:34.600 they're a live dogger. They're a love dog to win 1590 01:20:34.680 --> 01:20:35.000 this game. 1591 01:20:36.079 --> 01:20:38.000 I mean again, I've got them great out to shut 1592 01:20:38.039 --> 01:20:39.880 down this running game. He shut down this fucking Baltimore 1593 01:20:39.920 --> 01:20:41.600 running game. Put it all in the bar. 1594 01:20:42.359 --> 01:20:46.640 Like you said, New England wins and covers again. They 1595 01:20:46.680 --> 01:20:50.640 are the team that they have no letdown. There's no 1596 01:20:50.840 --> 01:20:53.680 leadown they did, there's no bad spot. 1597 01:20:53.880 --> 01:20:56.560 Twelve and a half. Oh if you got the look 1598 01:20:56.680 --> 01:20:58.800 the Jets were thirteen and a half for about two 1599 01:20:58.960 --> 01:21:00.359 hours earlier. 1600 01:21:00.439 --> 01:21:04.319 That didn't covery. Oh no, that did cover half. Holy shit, 1601 01:21:05.239 --> 01:21:07.560 So closing line. That was the closing line. 1602 01:21:07.600 --> 01:21:11.960 Thirteen Oh wow half, well closing line. But if you 1603 01:21:12.000 --> 01:21:13.600 were smart enough to get that thirteen and a half, 1604 01:21:14.159 --> 01:21:16.159 oh baby, I got. 1605 01:21:16.119 --> 01:21:18.359 The eleven and a half, So not that. I mean, 1606 01:21:18.399 --> 01:21:20.000 that's a dead number all the way to thirteen, so 1607 01:21:20.039 --> 01:21:20.960 it doesn't fucking matter. 1608 01:21:21.079 --> 01:21:24.359 But yeah, so New England. So hey, I'll move on 1609 01:21:24.479 --> 01:21:24.960 to Survivor. 1610 01:21:25.720 --> 01:21:29.880 But oh well, everybody congratulate him in the comments. Nobody 1611 01:21:30.000 --> 01:21:33.279 gives up. Fuck, we're all dead in the fucking Survivor. 1612 01:21:33.359 --> 01:21:33.880 We don't care. 1613 01:21:34.640 --> 01:21:36.399 You're gonna be caring for your boys holding one hundred 1614 01:21:36.399 --> 01:21:38.399 thousand dollars. I don't care to give me those big checks. 1615 01:21:38.560 --> 01:21:39.600 Even that guy got one. 1616 01:21:40.079 --> 01:21:43.039 That's true because I because I do contractually get half, 1617 01:21:43.159 --> 01:21:46.720 so I never mind. I do care. You're you're well job, 1618 01:21:46.800 --> 01:21:47.439 well done. 1619 01:21:47.239 --> 01:21:49.560 On the wind sir, thank you. We're down to like 1620 01:21:49.640 --> 01:21:53.319 four hundred people now in my Survivor contest. For grand 1621 01:21:53.520 --> 01:21:55.920 So now I will say, I don't know what the 1622 01:21:55.920 --> 01:21:58.239 percentage is. This doesn't give me a percentage of course 1623 01:21:58.279 --> 01:22:00.399 of the week's over. But it's got like a little 1624 01:22:00.439 --> 01:22:03.560 green bar. You can see people selected, lots of people, 1625 01:22:03.720 --> 01:22:04.960 a lot of green on the news. 1626 01:22:05.039 --> 01:22:07.039 Oh yeah, I mean for sure, this is like a 1627 01:22:07.079 --> 01:22:08.119 free square for everybody. 1628 01:22:08.279 --> 01:22:10.880 This is so little side under Survivor if you're if 1629 01:22:10.920 --> 01:22:13.000 you're still in Survivor, if you've been playing Survivor ever, 1630 01:22:13.640 --> 01:22:16.399 when you get to this point in the season, it's 1631 01:22:16.479 --> 01:22:18.279 okay to go with the herd. Like you don't need 1632 01:22:18.319 --> 01:22:21.399 to be contrarian right now. You gotta like, from this 1633 01:22:21.479 --> 01:22:23.560 point of season on, you really have to pick a spot. 1634 01:22:23.960 --> 01:22:25.680 You have to pick a spot, say, and you don't 1635 01:22:25.760 --> 01:22:27.720 have to go because some people think, oh well, I 1636 01:22:27.760 --> 01:22:29.239 gotta go with the opposite of what everybody else. No, 1637 01:22:29.319 --> 01:22:31.840 you don't. You don't. You just don't pick the team 1638 01:22:31.920 --> 01:22:34.840 that everybody else is on. You pick a different team 1639 01:22:35.359 --> 01:22:38.199 and then hope to God that that team that you know, 1640 01:22:38.279 --> 01:22:41.479 Carolina loses the fucking h New Orleans is what you 1641 01:22:41.600 --> 01:22:44.079 do that you just don't pick Carolina and hope that 1642 01:22:44.159 --> 01:22:46.640 it goes badly for everybody else. That's really the whole 1643 01:22:46.800 --> 01:22:47.560 key to survivor. 1644 01:22:47.960 --> 01:22:51.159 Can I just say before before we finish a podcast, 1645 01:22:51.239 --> 01:22:53.960 I can't believe that the one of the greatest and 1646 01:22:54.119 --> 01:22:59.560 brightest young black NFL head coaches lost another game by 1647 01:23:00.479 --> 01:23:04.279 double digits. I'm I just I'm always amazed. It's it's 1648 01:23:04.439 --> 01:23:04.800 it's just. 1649 01:23:04.920 --> 01:23:06.520 Had some live commentary on this game. 1650 01:23:06.600 --> 01:23:06.760 Though. 1651 01:23:07.119 --> 01:23:11.119 Let's see, Bruisers, Sue, there we go, pop that up. 1652 01:23:11.520 --> 01:23:15.840 Justin Fields cannot be this damn bad. I mean, Jesus Christ, 1653 01:23:15.920 --> 01:23:18.000 what's the jay and that multiple ease? 1654 01:23:18.359 --> 01:23:22.239 Love the spelling, well that spelling, Bruisers, Sue, I would 1655 01:23:22.319 --> 01:23:26.239 say to you, have you not been watching Justin Fields 1656 01:23:26.279 --> 01:23:29.960 for literally his entire since we. 1657 01:23:30.039 --> 01:23:32.640 Got the coved here, Let's go over his line fifteen 1658 01:23:32.720 --> 01:23:35.159 for twenty six for one hundred and sixteen yards, four 1659 01:23:35.279 --> 01:23:39.720 point five yards per attempt, Yison. Now he didn't throw 1660 01:23:39.720 --> 01:23:42.039 a pick. That's pretty good, and he threw a touchdown. 1661 01:23:42.439 --> 01:23:44.920 What else do you fucking want from this guy? I mean, honestly, 1662 01:23:45.279 --> 01:23:47.279 that's like maybe when of his Game of the Year 1663 01:23:47.399 --> 01:23:49.000 lines right there, Other than the fact that we played 1664 01:23:49.119 --> 01:23:51.640 Remember remember when we when he played Pittsburgh and we 1665 01:23:51.680 --> 01:23:53.960 were all like, oh, no is this justin field thing 1666 01:23:54.000 --> 01:23:54.800 is gonna work out him. 1667 01:23:54.920 --> 01:23:57.119 Yeah. It was the first game of the year and 1668 01:23:57.239 --> 01:23:57.720 he put up. 1669 01:23:57.680 --> 01:24:01.439 A thirty burger against that defense. Oh no, if he's 1670 01:24:01.439 --> 01:24:04.199 gonna do this against Pittsburgh, there's no way they're not 1671 01:24:04.239 --> 01:24:04.840 gonna win six. 1672 01:24:04.920 --> 01:24:05.560 We're fucked. 1673 01:24:06.880 --> 01:24:07.359 We're fine. 1674 01:24:07.800 --> 01:24:11.000 This is when this is when your coach and quarterback 1675 01:24:12.079 --> 01:24:17.760 pulmination meets D E, I and everything and then everything 1676 01:24:17.840 --> 01:24:21.359 goes D I E. You're dead. Jets, You're dead. 1677 01:24:24.800 --> 01:24:28.479 Let's move on to this. This actually might be the game. Well, 1678 01:24:28.880 --> 01:24:32.319 these last two games actually very interesting to be and 1679 01:24:33.079 --> 01:24:35.880 it'd be great point Sminster. So Sunday Night football, it's 1680 01:24:35.960 --> 01:24:41.600 those Dan burd Broncos host Kansas City Jeeps. Now, this 1681 01:24:41.840 --> 01:24:45.319 one was one and a half Kansas City in pre season. 1682 01:24:45.399 --> 01:24:47.720 So I want you to think about this, Vegas. That's 1683 01:24:47.760 --> 01:24:49.600 not my line, Vegas line. I didn't have my lines 1684 01:24:49.640 --> 01:24:53.880 pulled up one and a half. We're sitting currently at four. 1685 01:24:54.239 --> 01:24:56.479 This line has moved over at two and a half. 1686 01:24:57.560 --> 01:25:01.079 It's at four across the four now, juice the four 1687 01:25:01.199 --> 01:25:06.359 minus one fifteen on average, dude. So we've seen these 1688 01:25:06.399 --> 01:25:10.039 two teams do what they do and yet now one 1689 01:25:10.079 --> 01:25:13.119 and a half has become four. Somehow Kansas City has 1690 01:25:13.159 --> 01:25:16.319 improved two and a half points, even though right now 1691 01:25:16.359 --> 01:25:18.800 along horner of the season is today they're not even 1692 01:25:18.880 --> 01:25:19.920 in the fucking playoffs. 1693 01:25:21.199 --> 01:25:25.439 I know, well, and that's why you play seventeen bo 1694 01:25:25.680 --> 01:25:27.800 see if it's because like it's not, we don't stop 1695 01:25:28.000 --> 01:25:33.880 after nine games. So stop this whole this whole lot 1696 01:25:34.039 --> 01:25:35.520 like the Cats out of the back at this point, 1697 01:25:35.600 --> 01:25:41.000 like like even me a bon Knicks supporter, and uh, 1698 01:25:41.520 --> 01:25:44.960 the guy saying be patient, be patient, be patient. Bonnick 1699 01:25:44.960 --> 01:25:47.239 struggled in this first year. Early came on at the 1700 01:25:47.640 --> 01:25:50.319 at the end of the year. Dude, this is this 1701 01:25:50.560 --> 01:25:52.399 is a travesty. This is I mean, we just talked 1702 01:25:52.399 --> 01:25:55.920 about how bad Justin Fields is, Like Bonicks isn't that bad, 1703 01:25:56.319 --> 01:25:59.880 but he's fucking pretty fucking bad. Like it's it's nobody's 1704 01:26:00.760 --> 01:26:03.239 it's so bad that Sean Payton, who is a great, 1705 01:26:03.840 --> 01:26:06.640 great offensive line And that's that's the biggest thing to me, 1706 01:26:06.880 --> 01:26:11.119 is is you is you have you got you you got? 1707 01:26:11.800 --> 01:26:14.680 You got the lottery ticket. Yeah, you got the lottery ticket. 1708 01:26:14.760 --> 01:26:17.520 You got like Mahomes got with Andy Reid. When you're 1709 01:26:17.600 --> 01:26:20.920 a quarterback that gets drafted by an offensive guru and 1710 01:26:21.039 --> 01:26:25.520 then you suck you. I'm sorry, I can't. I can't 1711 01:26:25.640 --> 01:26:28.079 roll with this anymore. And the fact that Denver's eight 1712 01:26:28.159 --> 01:26:31.600 and two, they're the biggest fraudulent the aid and to 1713 01:26:31.960 --> 01:26:36.359 eight and two, and their ATS record explain their ATS 1714 01:26:36.439 --> 01:26:38.479 record explains it all. They're four and six ats. That 1715 01:26:38.560 --> 01:26:42.079 is a that's a complete opposite that that should not be, 1716 01:26:42.279 --> 01:26:46.119 that that dispersed. Look this line at four, three and 1717 01:26:46.119 --> 01:26:48.520 a half, four, whatever it's at, I should be in 1718 01:26:48.680 --> 01:26:51.880 in my in my past, I would be slamming Denver here, 1719 01:26:52.079 --> 01:26:55.720 slamming Denver, not even thinking fucking twice, pounding it in there. 1720 01:26:56.279 --> 01:26:59.439 I can't do it. I can And the thing is 1721 01:26:59.760 --> 01:27:02.960 on the other side. For for years now, I've been saying, 1722 01:27:03.359 --> 01:27:06.600 you can't take you can't take Mahomes over three points 1723 01:27:07.079 --> 01:27:09.399 as a favorite. That's not his sweet spot. So once again, 1724 01:27:09.439 --> 01:27:12.319 the theme of the week tug of war torn both ways. 1725 01:27:12.399 --> 01:27:14.119 I can make arguments for both sides. So this is 1726 01:27:14.159 --> 01:27:17.000 gonna be a tough week for me again picking games. 1727 01:27:19.960 --> 01:27:21.920 In this position. We're not used to seeing lamar Ben 1728 01:27:21.960 --> 01:27:24.000 three and six. We're not used to seeing Homes out 1729 01:27:24.039 --> 01:27:24.600 of the playoffs. 1730 01:27:25.119 --> 01:27:28.079 That's that's true, So there's no there's so they should 1731 01:27:29.520 --> 01:27:32.359 now I'm assuming because I because we've been doing this 1732 01:27:32.439 --> 01:27:34.279 for so long, you're gonna have some nice off the 1733 01:27:34.319 --> 01:27:38.199 buye type stuff with with any Reid and in Kansas 1734 01:27:38.239 --> 01:27:46.039 City situationally coming off to buy. But okay, last point, 1735 01:27:46.079 --> 01:27:49.399 I'll thought to you, Patrick artan missing for the Denver 1736 01:27:49.479 --> 01:27:53.239 Broncos that hasn't had a chance to affect Denver as 1737 01:27:53.279 --> 01:27:56.000 far as far as the win call them yet this game, 1738 01:27:56.560 --> 01:27:59.159 this will be the game they're gonna feel that effect 1739 01:27:59.319 --> 01:28:02.960 of of I can startan missing because the speed of 1740 01:28:03.119 --> 01:28:06.600 the uh of Kansas City's weapons over the top is 1741 01:28:06.680 --> 01:28:09.960 finally going to be felt. And in a tug of 1742 01:28:10.000 --> 01:28:12.359 war situation where I can't really decide, I'm going to 1743 01:28:12.479 --> 01:28:15.800 lean towards the Hall of Famer and the next the 1744 01:28:15.880 --> 01:28:20.000 baby goat in my homes and I'm gonna fade the 1745 01:28:20.239 --> 01:28:22.159 bow knicks. I don't know what the fuck I'm doing 1746 01:28:22.680 --> 01:28:25.359 when I'm when I'm playing quarterback, like just until I 1747 01:28:25.479 --> 01:28:27.199 see it, I just can't do it. And I think 1748 01:28:27.239 --> 01:28:30.479 that a Sintnet eight and two, I wouldn't be surprised 1749 01:28:30.520 --> 01:28:32.520 at all if this team finishes like a ten and 1750 01:28:32.640 --> 01:28:35.800 six or two, ten and seven has a nice little 1751 01:28:35.840 --> 01:28:38.960 late season collapse, still makes the playoffs first round exit, 1752 01:28:39.039 --> 01:28:40.960 and then we got questions in the off season about 1753 01:28:41.000 --> 01:28:44.199 bo Nicks in his future. Yeah, so. 1754 01:28:46.039 --> 01:28:48.119 I shouldn't be torn on this one at all. I 1755 01:28:48.119 --> 01:28:51.159 should just be slamming Denver, powering Denver Denver. 1756 01:28:51.359 --> 01:28:52.000 Yeah, I've. 1757 01:28:54.800 --> 01:28:56.880 Bo Nix is half a point of the BBG against 1758 01:28:56.880 --> 01:28:59.359 the Kansas defense, which, by the way, since Week seven 1759 01:29:00.199 --> 01:29:03.920 is the ninth best success rate defense in the league. However, 1760 01:29:04.920 --> 01:29:09.199 Denver is still number four. They've been top five all year. 1761 01:29:09.199 --> 01:29:12.479 There's been no slippage in Denver. And for that reason, 1762 01:29:12.680 --> 01:29:14.800 Mahomes loses a point and a half of the BVG 1763 01:29:14.960 --> 01:29:17.000 and more important than me, they lose a point and 1764 01:29:17.000 --> 01:29:20.680 a half running the ball against this defense. I don't 1765 01:29:20.760 --> 01:29:24.359 know how can't other than Patrick Mahomes, which that's Patrick Mahomes, 1766 01:29:24.479 --> 01:29:28.640 So that's how how do they score more than twenty 1767 01:29:28.680 --> 01:29:31.720 points against this defense? I mean, other than the Bodicks 1768 01:29:31.800 --> 01:29:36.079 throwing the ball away, which he absolutely can and he might. 1769 01:29:36.600 --> 01:29:38.680 But the total of this one should tell you. Everything's 1770 01:29:38.720 --> 01:29:40.920 forty four and a half. I've even got it going 1771 01:29:41.000 --> 01:29:43.199 under that. I don't I don't know how we get there, 1772 01:29:43.279 --> 01:29:44.760 and if you look at the I don't have the 1773 01:29:45.039 --> 01:29:47.079 Andy ree byde thing has been slipping of late. But 1774 01:29:47.159 --> 01:29:50.520 if you just look at teams off of bye away 1775 01:29:50.600 --> 01:29:54.239 Favorite since twenty twenty one, thirteen and sixteen ats forty 1776 01:29:54.279 --> 01:29:57.319 four point eight percent. Not a huge you know margin there, 1777 01:29:57.560 --> 01:29:59.159 but it's on a lot of minus four point two, 1778 01:29:59.159 --> 01:30:02.119 which is exactly where sitting now. Twenty and eleven straight 1779 01:30:02.239 --> 01:30:04.520 up winning about four point eight points a game, sixty 1780 01:30:04.560 --> 01:30:09.520 four point that's a little bit below average favorite usually wins. 1781 01:30:09.479 --> 01:30:10.079 In this league. 1782 01:30:10.920 --> 01:30:15.039 But the the Broncos are going onto the buy and 1783 01:30:15.079 --> 01:30:17.560 if you're on the buy at home as a dog, 1784 01:30:17.800 --> 01:30:20.319 that is the spot eighteen fourteen and one fifty six 1785 01:30:21.199 --> 01:30:24.840 average you guessed it four, which is exactly where we're 1786 01:30:24.840 --> 01:30:26.920 sitting here now now. 1787 01:30:27.119 --> 01:30:31.760 Dobbins the Dolveins injury and likely out for the year. 1788 01:30:32.199 --> 01:30:34.600 I mean, it's it that one's kind of there's some 1789 01:30:34.720 --> 01:30:37.600 mixed mixed interest in it, but that's so huge, Like 1790 01:30:38.359 --> 01:30:40.199 he's been a huge part of their all. 1791 01:30:40.720 --> 01:30:41.880 Harvey not is he not? 1792 01:30:42.199 --> 01:30:44.720 He has not? I swear go down the list. 1793 01:30:44.880 --> 01:30:45.039 R J. 1794 01:30:45.199 --> 01:30:49.399 Harvey underwhelming, uh Ingram everan Ingram the tight end they 1795 01:30:49.439 --> 01:30:53.319 brought in underwhelming, like there's Courtland Sutland at times like 1796 01:30:53.399 --> 01:30:56.479 I don't know, I don't think Sean Payton's gonna get 1797 01:30:56.479 --> 01:30:58.640 a pass on this, And maybe it's all just Bonix. 1798 01:30:58.680 --> 01:31:01.039 They could just be the quarterback suck. I mean yeah, 1799 01:31:01.680 --> 01:31:03.800 I mean I guess history would say that because or 1800 01:31:04.079 --> 01:31:06.199 or maybe well, we know Evan Ingram is a good 1801 01:31:06.239 --> 01:31:08.520 tight end because we saw him at Jacksonville and at 1802 01:31:08.720 --> 01:31:11.000 New York, so we know he's good. But for whatever reason, 1803 01:31:11.520 --> 01:31:15.159 this this goulash of offense that that Sean Payne has 1804 01:31:15.239 --> 01:31:19.199 mixed up, it's soured and it's poisoned by the quarterback 1805 01:31:19.279 --> 01:31:21.319 being so bad. So it's just not average. 1806 01:31:21.960 --> 01:31:25.039 Is like four yards, I mean, it's kind of easy 1807 01:31:25.079 --> 01:31:27.079 for a defense, you know what. 1808 01:31:27.840 --> 01:31:30.840 Okay, that's a great point because bo nixt Champagne is 1809 01:31:30.920 --> 01:31:32.840 trying to take the top off the defense to open 1810 01:31:32.920 --> 01:31:36.439 things up underneath, and every fucking time he throws it deep, 1811 01:31:36.840 --> 01:31:40.560 he misses. He can't hit a deep He cannot hit 1812 01:31:40.960 --> 01:31:43.279 a deep target to save his life. And you watched 1813 01:31:43.359 --> 01:31:48.800 him more in college than I did off memory Auburn, Oregon. 1814 01:31:48.960 --> 01:31:53.560 I remember just dropping dimes into streaking receivers down for 1815 01:31:53.840 --> 01:31:56.279 I don't remember this ever being like a big problem 1816 01:31:56.560 --> 01:31:58.159 for him in college. Now I know it's a completely 1817 01:31:58.199 --> 01:32:01.279 different situation, but like, what in the fuck is this 1818 01:32:01.319 --> 01:32:03.319 where he can't every time he drows back and he 1819 01:32:03.399 --> 01:32:06.319 winds up with those deals. I know it's an incomplete 1820 01:32:06.359 --> 01:32:07.600 pass Oregon. 1821 01:32:07.720 --> 01:32:09.199 We saw the only game will do the same thing 1822 01:32:09.319 --> 01:32:10.560 under the same offense Oregon. 1823 01:32:10.680 --> 01:32:12.800 So yeah, but he's way he's a way better talent 1824 01:32:13.039 --> 01:32:14.319 than than don't I know. 1825 01:32:14.720 --> 01:32:17.000 But my point is like that's that's the reason why 1826 01:32:17.039 --> 01:32:19.960 that doesn't translate because that red Oregon offense. Just that 1827 01:32:20.079 --> 01:32:22.279 tells you how bad Oregon's quarterback is this year, by 1828 01:32:22.319 --> 01:32:25.680 the way, that that they fucking can't function offense like 1829 01:32:25.720 --> 01:32:26.960 that kid fucking sucks. 1830 01:32:27.079 --> 01:32:29.159 So where where are you landing on this one? Which? 1831 01:32:29.199 --> 01:32:30.840 Which way are you getting landing on? 1832 01:32:31.000 --> 01:32:32.960 I mean, I can I can only bet Depp, I 1833 01:32:33.000 --> 01:32:33.520 can only. 1834 01:32:33.399 --> 01:32:36.960 Bet Okay, I don't you're you're reluctantly betting Denver and 1835 01:32:37.000 --> 01:32:41.000 I'm reluctantly betting Kansas City. This is a stay away game, 1836 01:32:41.079 --> 01:32:41.600 for sure. 1837 01:32:42.600 --> 01:32:45.000 Yeah, more likely than not. All right, let's move on 1838 01:32:45.119 --> 01:32:47.560 to the Oh it's the Monday night. No, sorry, this 1839 01:32:47.640 --> 01:32:50.319 is a Sunday night. Football game. I got ahead of myself. 1840 01:32:50.479 --> 01:32:57.199 Excuse me, it's those goddamn Philadelphia Eagles posting those Detroit Lions. Oh, 1841 01:32:57.319 --> 01:32:59.840 I'm talking about a fucking slaby knocker brewing. We got 1842 01:33:00.079 --> 01:33:02.760 two and a half points, is what we're sitting that juice, 1843 01:33:02.840 --> 01:33:06.279 however juiced. So I expect this to go to three. 1844 01:33:06.760 --> 01:33:09.119 And actually Circa just popped a three at even So 1845 01:33:10.159 --> 01:33:12.760 money coming in on Philly, long wan when you got 1846 01:33:12.800 --> 01:33:13.079 on your. 1847 01:33:13.079 --> 01:33:15.960 Lions, Well, they're not gonna be my lines in this 1848 01:33:16.039 --> 01:33:18.279 game because I'm on Philly too. I'm I'm on that 1849 01:33:18.359 --> 01:33:20.960 Philly side of this thing. And for several reasons. Number one, 1850 01:33:23.079 --> 01:33:25.920 well let's let's let's go big picture. First, We've talked 1851 01:33:25.920 --> 01:33:28.760 about in the past with Detroit, you have to have 1852 01:33:29.399 --> 01:33:31.960 a really good reason too bad against his team. There 1853 01:33:32.000 --> 01:33:35.640 are seventy percent cover team under Dan Campbell and Jared Golf. 1854 01:33:36.039 --> 01:33:40.119 That combination has been just it's just money. It's it's 1855 01:33:40.199 --> 01:33:41.840 like it's like printing money. So you got a really 1856 01:33:41.840 --> 01:33:44.560 good reason, So automatically I'm going up against it. When 1857 01:33:44.600 --> 01:33:48.560 I'm saying I'm I'm taking the Philadelphia Eagles. Just a 1858 01:33:48.640 --> 01:33:52.000 couple of stats Golf twenty five and eight ats at night. 1859 01:33:52.319 --> 01:33:54.039 This is one of his sweet spots. But he's on 1860 01:33:54.199 --> 01:33:57.680 the road, and he's outdoors on the road. And we 1861 01:33:57.840 --> 01:34:00.399 just saw him last week go outdoors on the road 1862 01:34:00.720 --> 01:34:04.239 against the Dead Skins. This is a different animal going 1863 01:34:04.319 --> 01:34:06.359 on the road, uh at night. 1864 01:34:06.319 --> 01:34:10.319 Against I told you all last week the Pod he's 1865 01:34:10.319 --> 01:34:12.720 gonna have the best games this season. I'm not gonna 1866 01:34:12.720 --> 01:34:13.479 tell you that on this one. 1867 01:34:13.520 --> 01:34:15.720 You're not gonna. I know you're not gonna before you 1868 01:34:15.720 --> 01:34:17.680 even say, I know you're not going to and and 1869 01:34:17.960 --> 01:34:22.039 and that Philly Devens is getting better now. They're with 1870 01:34:22.199 --> 01:34:25.960 the kind of under the radar moves that they always make. 1871 01:34:27.039 --> 01:34:31.079 They now have that depth of rotation pass rushers, which 1872 01:34:31.199 --> 01:34:33.439 is which is what they do when they're when they're 1873 01:34:33.479 --> 01:34:36.560 winning super Bowls and they're there, whether they're beating Brady 1874 01:34:36.600 --> 01:34:38.439 in the Super Bowl or they're beating Mahomes in a 1875 01:34:38.479 --> 01:34:41.680 Super Bowl, it's because they have a plethora of pass 1876 01:34:41.720 --> 01:34:44.199 rushers that they can just rotate in and keep fresh. 1877 01:34:44.600 --> 01:34:47.000 And they made that trade for Jalen Phillips from Miami. 1878 01:34:47.680 --> 01:34:49.000 Would you say I have Ale? 1879 01:34:53.399 --> 01:34:57.960 That's a great call by That's a great But that's 1880 01:34:58.000 --> 01:34:59.920 what they do, and they and they've they've built it 1881 01:35:00.039 --> 01:35:01.720 back up to where they now now they do have 1882 01:35:01.880 --> 01:35:05.720 a pta of pass rushers to throw at the opposing 1883 01:35:06.680 --> 01:35:10.720 at the opposing quarterback. So this is gonna be And 1884 01:35:11.119 --> 01:35:14.319 we saw Dan Campbell calling offense last week. He took 1885 01:35:14.359 --> 01:35:17.560 over offensive play calling. Uh dudes, And that's cool for 1886 01:35:17.720 --> 01:35:20.199 one game. I love that. That's cool that you can 1887 01:35:20.239 --> 01:35:24.159 be like, look, man, I'm buying kneecaps, I'm buying I'm 1888 01:35:24.199 --> 01:35:28.520 an Applebee's, fucking like all this all you can eat 1889 01:35:28.520 --> 01:35:31.880 at Applebee's. I'm calling all the plays. I'm Dan the man. 1890 01:35:32.159 --> 01:35:36.359 I'm gonna he ain't an offensive coordinator like this. That's 1891 01:35:36.640 --> 01:35:38.520 there's a sign of issues there if he's having to 1892 01:35:38.600 --> 01:35:40.319 do that. And now you're going to get a really 1893 01:35:40.399 --> 01:35:43.640 good defense in a spot where Jared Golf I don't 1894 01:35:43.640 --> 01:35:46.359 think it's gonna it's gonna do well. Now mentioned to 1895 01:35:46.399 --> 01:35:48.720 see how the running game matchup is that you'll that 1896 01:35:48.800 --> 01:35:51.560 you'll tell us about, because if this is a neutral 1897 01:35:52.000 --> 01:35:55.039 or even bad spot running the game, this is a 1898 01:35:55.319 --> 01:35:57.720 smash spot for Philly for me, and I will definitely 1899 01:35:57.760 --> 01:36:01.119 have them in in some sort of and some picks, 1900 01:36:01.199 --> 01:36:03.000 but I'm on Philly. I don't want to go too long. 1901 01:36:03.000 --> 01:36:03.600 I'm on Philly. 1902 01:36:05.119 --> 01:36:07.119 I just prison to the numbers or year that you're 1903 01:36:07.119 --> 01:36:10.159 talking about the defense improving list some moves. So if 1904 01:36:10.159 --> 01:36:12.479 you looked at the first six weeks, they were twentieth 1905 01:36:12.520 --> 01:36:15.000 and success rate, he looks in week seven they're up 1906 01:36:15.039 --> 01:36:18.680 to sixteenth. So that's a pretty good move in basically 1907 01:36:18.760 --> 01:36:22.359 three weeks that they've played. So I like that trending up. Now, 1908 01:36:22.399 --> 01:36:25.039 Detroit's been We've talked about Detroit. It's really been the 1909 01:36:25.119 --> 01:36:28.960 defense carrying this team all season long. For the power Rings, 1910 01:36:29.000 --> 01:36:31.039 it's no call. It's a great number. V two does 1911 01:36:31.119 --> 01:36:33.760 have Detroit forty six and a half. Again, I got 1912 01:36:33.840 --> 01:36:36.399 it going slightly under. It does grade out to Detroit 1913 01:36:36.479 --> 01:36:39.640 winning this game twenty four to twenty one, but it's 1914 01:36:39.680 --> 01:36:41.720 not a good matchup for e. They quarterback, however, hurts 1915 01:36:41.760 --> 01:36:43.880 and lose half a point. Golf is a full point. 1916 01:36:44.319 --> 01:36:47.239 Both running games great out his flat, So you. 1917 01:36:47.239 --> 01:36:49.399 Know that's good enough. That's good enough. 1918 01:36:49.960 --> 01:36:51.800 But if you look at the production, though, Detroit is 1919 01:36:51.880 --> 01:36:54.800 the better running team, so that's why they grade out 1920 01:36:54.880 --> 01:36:57.960 to win the game because their running game is just 1921 01:36:58.039 --> 01:36:59.520 far superior to Phillies this year. 1922 01:37:00.840 --> 01:37:04.720 So So is it consensus three? Is it we or 1923 01:37:04.760 --> 01:37:06.000 can you still get too and a half? Because like 1924 01:37:06.239 --> 01:37:07.520 in a low scoring game that we think this is 1925 01:37:07.520 --> 01:37:09.720 gonna be a low scoring game like that, that's there's plenty, 1926 01:37:10.399 --> 01:37:14.600 Okay that that hook is huge. That that's a monster 1927 01:37:14.720 --> 01:37:17.359 game like we saw last week ten to seven against 1928 01:37:17.399 --> 01:37:21.359 Green Bay last week. You gotta get it under three 1929 01:37:21.359 --> 01:37:22.359 if if you want Philly, you. 1930 01:37:22.439 --> 01:37:25.840 Just have to. Yeah, I've got Philly having more success 1931 01:37:26.039 --> 01:37:28.119 this week on offense. Gotta score twenty one points. Last 1932 01:37:28.119 --> 01:37:30.880 week got him scoring sixteen, is what I said. They 1933 01:37:30.960 --> 01:37:34.600 only scored ten. Look, man, if Philly wants to be 1934 01:37:34.640 --> 01:37:37.680 a real contender this year, this offense is broke. I've 1935 01:37:37.720 --> 01:37:39.880 been talking about it for a while. Jail Hurst has 1936 01:37:39.920 --> 01:37:42.039 not been good this year. He wasn't really good last year, 1937 01:37:42.119 --> 01:37:43.720 but the Barkley thing covered all that up. 1938 01:37:43.760 --> 01:37:47.199 Here we go with this bullshit. I'm way too many, 1939 01:37:47.439 --> 01:37:49.640 I'm way too many beers in and this is like 1940 01:37:49.800 --> 01:37:52.479 the I'm not gonna stand for this Jalen Hurst. I 1941 01:37:52.560 --> 01:37:54.439 swear to God, Like, how long do you have to 1942 01:37:54.479 --> 01:37:57.279 see him just fucking win all the time? 1943 01:37:57.960 --> 01:37:58.399 He wins? 1944 01:37:58.800 --> 01:38:04.079 Stop saying he's not good. He's a good quarterback, damn 1945 01:38:04.079 --> 01:38:05.079 near great quarterback. 1946 01:38:07.039 --> 01:38:08.720 That's a hard stretch for me right there. 1947 01:38:08.880 --> 01:38:12.159 Now, Me, if you like winning, you love them like 1948 01:38:12.359 --> 01:38:15.239 and you like you like winning bets and winning games 1949 01:38:15.279 --> 01:38:17.560 and going to super Bowls, you love them. You just 1950 01:38:17.680 --> 01:38:18.359 fucking love him. 1951 01:38:19.880 --> 01:38:21.439 Well, I can't argue that he did just win the 1952 01:38:21.479 --> 01:38:21.920 super Bowl. 1953 01:38:22.720 --> 01:38:25.560 He's the Troy Man. I mentioned this a couple of pockets. 1954 01:38:25.680 --> 01:38:28.159 He's literally the new age Troy Aigman, where he's never 1955 01:38:28.239 --> 01:38:30.560 gonna give respect for his numbers and it's always gonna 1956 01:38:30.560 --> 01:38:33.000 be excuses like well, I got to remember with Aman 1957 01:38:33.039 --> 01:38:34.439 as well, it's just all that running game. All he 1958 01:38:34.479 --> 01:38:37.439 doesn't hand off the fucking Troy or Emmitt Smith and 1959 01:38:37.600 --> 01:38:39.520 and they just they played great defense. 1960 01:38:40.039 --> 01:38:44.039 His is just wow. All that's actually a great comp 1961 01:38:44.960 --> 01:38:48.960 because if you looked at Aigman's best season, it was 1962 01:38:49.039 --> 01:38:52.239 literally his sixteen playoff games. Those were his best numbers. 1963 01:38:52.079 --> 01:38:55.479 Right, and that was his best season and hurts the 1964 01:38:55.520 --> 01:38:56.039 same thing. 1965 01:38:57.000 --> 01:38:59.560 Hurts the same thing. So it's great. I'm not gonna 1966 01:38:59.600 --> 01:39:02.960 argue with about it. Look, I mean, I think if 1967 01:39:03.840 --> 01:39:07.520 my problem with Detroit here is backing them when I 1968 01:39:07.600 --> 01:39:09.640 don't have the confidence that run in which it should 1969 01:39:09.680 --> 01:39:13.560 be fine, should be what they do. But with golf 1970 01:39:13.680 --> 01:39:17.840 not grading out, well, I mean again, you're you basically 1971 01:39:17.920 --> 01:39:20.880 have two even teams at this point. Detroit the better team, 1972 01:39:20.920 --> 01:39:23.000 but like now they're on the road, there are outside 1973 01:39:24.319 --> 01:39:25.760 and I don't have any advantage. 1974 01:39:26.000 --> 01:39:27.640 Did you say Detroit is the better team. 1975 01:39:29.479 --> 01:39:31.560 Yeah, they're still the better team. They're much better defense, 1976 01:39:31.720 --> 01:39:32.159 much better. 1977 01:39:33.560 --> 01:39:34.880 Detroit is the better defense. 1978 01:39:35.840 --> 01:39:38.800 Yes, still still the still better defense. If you look 1979 01:39:38.840 --> 01:39:43.920 over the last since weeks seven, Detroit is seventh, Philly 1980 01:39:44.039 --> 01:39:48.640 is sixteenth. Yeah, dude, Detroit is fucking fourth in DBOA 1981 01:39:49.000 --> 01:39:54.119 and Philly is where the fuck is Philly? We're not 1982 01:39:54.239 --> 01:39:58.359 that far down Philly's seventh. Yeah, Detroit is slightly better team. 1983 01:39:58.560 --> 01:40:02.359 So again that speaks to word this numbers at So 1984 01:40:02.479 --> 01:40:09.560 I mean, if you take you from that perspective, we 1985 01:40:09.600 --> 01:40:12.840 should be slamming Detroit here. But again, the spot like 1986 01:40:12.880 --> 01:40:15.640 you talked about, I don't know. I mean, I can 1987 01:40:15.680 --> 01:40:17.960 see this with going either way. This is a I 1988 01:40:18.079 --> 01:40:19.800 just want to watch this game and see how it 1989 01:40:19.840 --> 01:40:22.760 plays out. But I never say Detroit, but the power 1990 01:40:22.840 --> 01:40:25.000 ranking is a no coal And I'm not My power 1991 01:40:25.079 --> 01:40:26.920 rings has been so good this year and I've just 1992 01:40:27.079 --> 01:40:29.279 not followed him like an idiot. So I'm not gonna 1993 01:40:29.279 --> 01:40:31.520 bet it just because it is a good number. We'll 1994 01:40:31.520 --> 01:40:34.680 see how it plays out. I think we're gonna we're 1995 01:40:34.680 --> 01:40:38.039 gonna We're gonna find out a lot about this new 1996 01:40:38.079 --> 01:40:40.319 Detroit offense and can it go on the road and 1997 01:40:40.439 --> 01:40:42.720 win again, win a grind game like I think this 1998 01:40:42.800 --> 01:40:43.359 one's gonna be. 1999 01:40:44.640 --> 01:40:45.359 We'll find out. 2000 01:40:46.039 --> 01:40:48.680 We'll find out, all right. Now, we're on the Monday, 2001 01:40:48.720 --> 01:40:56.079 not football. It is my loss, Vegas raid us hosting 2002 01:40:56.119 --> 01:41:02.239 those Dallas Cowboys. This one has taken some money on 2003 01:41:02.359 --> 01:41:06.680 the cow side. I don't think it's it. Oh the 2004 01:41:06.760 --> 01:41:09.319 money is switching around now, switching around. So it's three 2005 01:41:09.359 --> 01:41:11.840 and a half. It was straighted towards four. Now we're 2006 01:41:11.840 --> 01:41:14.279 turning back towards three. West gates actually just popping through. 2007 01:41:14.319 --> 01:41:16.399 Oh so did the circuits? Who? So yeah, if you 2008 01:41:16.520 --> 01:41:18.880 like the Raiders, grab him now whose three and a 2009 01:41:18.880 --> 01:41:22.439 half are disuppearing? So what do you got on this? 2010 01:41:22.520 --> 01:41:27.560 One? Man? Another? Another one I'm torn on And the 2011 01:41:27.680 --> 01:41:30.439 only reason I'm torn on it is because I don't 2012 01:41:30.479 --> 01:41:34.359 know how to handicap the the additions of the Dallas 2013 01:41:34.439 --> 01:41:37.640 Cowboys on players on defense. How do you, how do 2014 01:41:37.720 --> 01:41:42.880 you handicap possibly four new starters on defense from what 2015 01:41:43.000 --> 01:41:46.560 they had before the buy overshow might be back starting 2016 01:41:47.319 --> 01:41:47.800 the rookie. 2017 01:41:47.960 --> 01:41:50.079 I think he's I think he's gonna play. I mean, 2018 01:41:50.359 --> 01:41:53.680 I think you have a for a full four new Yeah, 2019 01:41:53.760 --> 01:41:56.520 So like what do I mean how do you do that? 2020 01:41:56.720 --> 01:42:01.960 So, like I think a suit let's just say that 2021 01:42:02.039 --> 01:42:05.279 those are like a flat a flat return on investment, 2022 01:42:05.319 --> 01:42:06.640 which I don't think they're gonna be. I think they're 2023 01:42:06.640 --> 01:42:09.800 gonna be actually pretty fucking good addition to the defense 2024 01:42:09.840 --> 01:42:12.800 that's been horrible. So like, how's how's it not going 2025 01:42:12.840 --> 01:42:15.640 to be more than just a flat addition on defense? 2026 01:42:16.960 --> 01:42:19.880 If it if it is flat or less than flat, 2027 01:42:19.960 --> 01:42:22.520 then this is a smash spot for Vegas for me. 2028 01:42:24.880 --> 01:42:27.600 Dallas on the road as a favorite of over three, 2029 01:42:27.960 --> 01:42:30.039 that's not been a good spot for them this year. 2030 01:42:30.279 --> 01:42:33.399 They went to Carolina lost, and uh, I know I 2031 01:42:33.520 --> 01:42:38.680 got more I know I got more hold on pump 2032 01:42:38.760 --> 01:42:42.720 schedule now because because there's been several spots where they've 2033 01:42:42.800 --> 01:42:44.920 been on the road as a favorite and just it's 2034 01:42:44.960 --> 01:42:51.800 a flat spot and they lose. Dallas at those are 2035 01:42:51.800 --> 01:42:58.319 the giants they know, well, no, they they beat the 2036 01:42:58.399 --> 01:43:00.520 Giants and that was at home, so they haven't played 2037 01:43:00.560 --> 01:43:05.359 him on the road yet. They went to Chicago and 2038 01:43:05.479 --> 01:43:07.239 that was close to a pick them game, but they 2039 01:43:07.319 --> 01:43:11.279 got their doors blown against Chicago. I mentioned that the 2040 01:43:11.399 --> 01:43:15.159 Carolina game, went went there as as favorites and lost. 2041 01:43:16.039 --> 01:43:18.319 They went to Denver and now of course their dogs there, 2042 01:43:18.399 --> 01:43:20.840 that's the way better team. But then we just saw 2043 01:43:20.920 --> 01:43:23.159 them last week and I was at home, not on 2044 01:43:23.239 --> 01:43:25.399 the road, but they were. They were favorites against the 2045 01:43:25.479 --> 01:43:29.279 Cardinals and loss. So two weeks ago, I'm sorry, yeah, 2046 01:43:29.279 --> 01:43:32.359 they had to buy so two weeks ago. So point being, 2047 01:43:32.399 --> 01:43:33.640 I don't know what to do this because I don't 2048 01:43:33.640 --> 01:43:36.319 know how these due players are gonna be on that 2049 01:43:36.439 --> 01:43:39.920 Cowboys defense. And but this should be a Brock Brock 2050 01:43:40.079 --> 01:43:45.640 Bowers smash spot and a Nashton Genty smash spot. But again, 2051 01:43:46.239 --> 01:43:48.479 they're not using him the proper way this year, so 2052 01:43:48.520 --> 01:43:50.319 I don't know what's gonna happen there with that. But 2053 01:43:50.880 --> 01:43:53.479 long story short, I'm reluctantly gonna be on the on 2054 01:43:53.600 --> 01:43:56.199 a forced bet on the Raiders at the three and 2055 01:43:56.239 --> 01:43:58.359 a half at home, but I don't feel great about 2056 01:43:58.359 --> 01:44:00.600 it because that if those defensive players come Mountain Ball. 2057 01:44:01.479 --> 01:44:04.199 They should they should be. We know Dallas is gonna score, 2058 01:44:04.359 --> 01:44:06.199 so it's all about what what the Cowboys defense can 2059 01:44:06.239 --> 01:44:08.840 do to slow down the Raiders offense. So what do 2060 01:44:08.880 --> 01:44:12.439 you got because I'm gonna reluctantly be on the Raiders. Yeah, 2061 01:44:12.479 --> 01:44:14.840 fifteen and a half total. Fifteen and a half total, 2062 01:44:14.880 --> 01:44:17.319 by the way, So the Vegas ain't buying into the 2063 01:44:17.600 --> 01:44:20.159 to the defense for Cowboys certainly in this game. 2064 01:44:21.640 --> 01:44:24.960 Yeah, the Power Ray's got Vegas here, the VT's got Dallas. 2065 01:44:25.039 --> 01:44:26.960 Fifty and half of these said of the total, I've 2066 01:44:27.000 --> 01:44:30.079 got this my tie the week, Vegas twenty three to 2067 01:44:30.119 --> 01:44:33.159 twenty three. So going under that total, this should be 2068 01:44:33.199 --> 01:44:36.000 a great matchup for Gino gaining two points. Again, we'll 2069 01:44:36.000 --> 01:44:38.520 see what the additions do. Here's why I really like 2070 01:44:38.680 --> 01:44:41.079 Vegas is because this is not a great matchup for Dak. 2071 01:44:41.199 --> 01:44:43.680 It's flat, which is not bad. I mean deck you 2072 01:44:43.760 --> 01:44:45.720 know it's put up MVP numbers other than a couple 2073 01:44:45.720 --> 01:44:47.359 of games, so you can't say it's a bad game 2074 01:44:47.439 --> 01:44:51.960 for him. Jen t gains half a point, which is 2075 01:44:52.039 --> 01:44:55.079 not Look, Buss team's gained at least a point. This 2076 01:44:55.079 --> 01:44:58.199 is Dallas defensive frush defense he's only gaining half a point. 2077 01:44:58.840 --> 01:45:01.560 You give me the additions that you just bring Quinn 2078 01:45:01.600 --> 01:45:04.039 and Williams on defensive line, I'm gonna say that's probably 2079 01:45:04.079 --> 01:45:09.520 flat at best. But ya Dallas running game, Yeah, I 2080 01:45:09.600 --> 01:45:11.800 mean like because he had an advantage on what they had. 2081 01:45:11.920 --> 01:45:14.279 So I'll take the advantage away and say that they 2082 01:45:14.319 --> 01:45:17.039 still can't run the fucking ball, because even if you 2083 01:45:17.079 --> 01:45:18.920 give Vegas half a point of the running game, they 2084 01:45:18.920 --> 01:45:24.000 can't run the balls. No though, now, but Dallas, it's 2085 01:45:24.039 --> 01:45:26.560 a flat great out for them with their offense on 2086 01:45:26.720 --> 01:45:28.960 running the ball. So, yes, they're a good offense, Yes 2087 01:45:29.000 --> 01:45:31.319 they should score their points, but I don't see any 2088 01:45:31.319 --> 01:45:33.720 advantage here for them as far as like that they're 2089 01:45:33.800 --> 01:45:36.199 gonna go off or Dak's gonna have a great game, 2090 01:45:36.239 --> 01:45:38.600 or they're gonna have a great game run the ball. Uh, 2091 01:45:38.880 --> 01:45:41.000 look at our if we're talking about our breakdown success, 2092 01:45:41.039 --> 01:45:43.119 straight and defense alwaysly neither one who's been worth a 2093 01:45:43.199 --> 01:45:48.119 shitsu Dallas twenty seventh since Week seven, Raiders twenty second. 2094 01:45:48.439 --> 01:45:51.520 So you're getting the slightly better defense, you're getting the 2095 01:45:51.800 --> 01:45:54.479 tallest midget or the smallest turd, whatever you want to 2096 01:45:54.520 --> 01:45:58.840 say of the two. But the other thing is the 2097 01:45:58.920 --> 01:46:02.039 trend here, so off the away favorites twenty twenty one 2098 01:46:02.159 --> 01:46:04.880 thirteen sixty to two ats forty four point eight per 2099 01:46:05.159 --> 01:46:07.760 average line of Oh, what do you know? Four point 2100 01:46:07.840 --> 01:46:11.239 two Now they are winning twenty to eleven straight up. 2101 01:46:12.000 --> 01:46:14.680 Sixty four point five percent is a slightly low average. 2102 01:46:15.199 --> 01:46:17.600 It's not the best part for the Cows. That three 2103 01:46:17.640 --> 01:46:20.680 and a half the hook seems dangerous. It seems dangerous. 2104 01:46:21.159 --> 01:46:23.439 I would have rather got four. I know there was 2105 01:46:23.439 --> 01:46:27.039 a couple of the pops here and there, but those 2106 01:46:27.119 --> 01:46:29.920 are gone. We're trending towards three. If you're gonna get 2107 01:46:29.920 --> 01:46:31.520 the Raiders, you gotta get them now. I would not 2108 01:46:31.600 --> 01:46:34.279 wait to get this to three. It doesn't seem like 2109 01:46:34.319 --> 01:46:38.520 a game that the Cows lose necessarily in. There's in 2110 01:46:38.560 --> 01:46:40.960 the spot that they're in especially and here's my last factor. 2111 01:46:41.000 --> 01:46:44.600 Why it's really stopped me from hitting on the Raiders. 2112 01:46:45.000 --> 01:46:46.960 And you say this is a factor, matter of factor whatever. 2113 01:46:47.479 --> 01:46:50.800 The Cowboys just had a kid kill himself, right, and 2114 01:46:50.880 --> 01:46:53.920 that's a galvanizing moment for a locker room. You know, 2115 01:46:54.800 --> 01:46:55.520 we're in his decay. 2116 01:46:55.640 --> 01:46:59.439 It's a gap, but it's a gap, and so that's 2117 01:47:00.479 --> 01:47:03.960 usually you don't have a two week gap between that. 2118 01:47:04.600 --> 01:47:07.279 It did just it just didn't just happen like this 2119 01:47:07.479 --> 01:47:09.640 last you know, whatever weekend or whatever. 2120 01:47:09.640 --> 01:47:13.359 You no, it happened. It happened last the week before 2121 01:47:13.439 --> 01:47:16.680 the like Wednesday, like when they were going into the 2122 01:47:16.800 --> 01:47:19.800 bye So yeah, a good week and a half. But 2123 01:47:19.920 --> 01:47:21.399 by the time they by the time they play the game, 2124 01:47:21.439 --> 01:47:23.479 So I don't know, it's hard to it's hard to fact. 2125 01:47:23.560 --> 01:47:27.079 Like if it had been like they played that Sunday, yeah, 2126 01:47:27.520 --> 01:47:30.760 I would have loved the cows there with this because 2127 01:47:30.760 --> 01:47:32.279 they were going you know that, you know, they all 2128 01:47:32.359 --> 01:47:34.319 go out of town or they all plan things, so 2129 01:47:34.479 --> 01:47:36.760 like did it fuck up there? Did a fuck up 2130 01:47:36.760 --> 01:47:39.159 their their terrification and now you gotta come back for 2131 01:47:39.159 --> 01:47:41.119 a funeral like whatever. They I don't know, it seems 2132 01:47:41.199 --> 01:47:44.560 more chaotic than just immediate like hey, let's go out. 2133 01:47:44.600 --> 01:47:47.239 This just happened, you know, I don't know, we don't 2134 01:47:47.279 --> 01:47:48.680 know that well. 2135 01:47:48.720 --> 01:47:50.760 We have also seen though, these guys are really good 2136 01:47:50.800 --> 01:47:54.319 at compartmentalizing things and like taking that honess in on 2137 01:47:54.399 --> 01:47:56.560 the game day and say, hey, we're gonna go playing 2138 01:47:56.640 --> 01:48:00.319 balls off for this kid, our teammate, and you know, 2139 01:48:00.640 --> 01:48:02.279 what are the what are the Raiders playing for at 2140 01:48:02.319 --> 01:48:04.960 this point, to try to win six games and win 2141 01:48:05.039 --> 01:48:06.680 me some money. I hope that's what they're playing for, 2142 01:48:07.359 --> 01:48:08.920 but I don't know. I don't know what they're playing for, 2143 01:48:09.159 --> 01:48:12.359 So I don't know. Man, It's and the Cowboys still 2144 01:48:12.359 --> 01:48:14.079 having it in front of them. I mean, the whole 2145 01:48:14.119 --> 01:48:16.199 division's falling apart. It's not like anybody in the NFC 2146 01:48:16.319 --> 01:48:18.840 is separating. They're not out of it. They're not out 2147 01:48:18.840 --> 01:48:20.319 of it. They gotta go win this one. They know 2148 01:48:20.479 --> 01:48:22.840 that this is a game, they know that they have 2149 01:48:23.000 --> 01:48:26.079 to win. Some max motivation there and the fact they 2150 01:48:26.119 --> 01:48:29.960 got a galvanosing moment one of their players died. I 2151 01:48:30.359 --> 01:48:34.560 can't everything all my numbers, everything say Raiders. I might 2152 01:48:34.640 --> 01:48:36.880 still be on the Raiders. I might still do. You 2153 01:48:36.920 --> 01:48:39.720 don't know. You don't know what I'm doing. But that's 2154 01:48:40.159 --> 01:48:41.800 it is a factor. It's got to be a factor. 2155 01:48:42.439 --> 01:48:45.479 They're not even as good as the Red Raiders from 2156 01:48:45.640 --> 01:48:49.640 love It. There's this this disgrace all across the country. 2157 01:48:50.039 --> 01:48:52.560 They're definitely not as good as the Texas, saying Red Raiders, 2158 01:48:52.600 --> 01:48:56.079 who were always the national champions. All right, boys and girls, 2159 01:48:56.159 --> 01:49:07.479 that was all those wins coming to the heads. All right, 2160 01:49:07.840 --> 01:49:10.560 now it is time Forever's favorite part of the show. 2161 01:49:10.640 --> 01:49:15.079 Some of those free I said, pixels, Longhorn, don't disappoint 2162 01:49:15.119 --> 01:49:17.199 his baby, lay it on us. Man. 2163 01:49:17.560 --> 01:49:21.319 This is a tough one, pal, this is a tough one. 2164 01:49:21.600 --> 01:49:22.239 I tell you what. 2165 01:49:23.680 --> 01:49:26.039 Let's go to those Kansas City Chiefs. I talked about them. 2166 01:49:26.640 --> 01:49:28.119 What's official number on this one? 2167 01:49:28.880 --> 01:49:29.079 Four? 2168 01:49:30.000 --> 01:49:34.560 Let's go Casey minus four minus four at them, Denver 2169 01:49:34.720 --> 01:49:38.800 Broncos and one of the worst eight and two quarterbacks 2170 01:49:38.880 --> 01:49:42.760 in the world, bow Nicks. Can you keep this closed? 2171 01:49:42.840 --> 01:49:46.720 We will see Denver wins by thirty. All right, let's 2172 01:49:46.800 --> 01:49:53.079 go college free. It's Tennessee Tech, baby plus twenty one 2173 01:49:53.119 --> 01:49:53.439 and a half. 2174 01:49:53.560 --> 01:49:53.720 Yeah. 2175 01:49:53.720 --> 01:49:54.920 I know they're playing Kentucky, and I. 2176 01:49:54.960 --> 01:49:57.680 Know Tennessee Tech. Well that's that is that like a 2177 01:49:59.079 --> 01:50:02.600 trade school. They don't. These are mechanics. They don't have 2178 01:50:02.680 --> 01:50:04.039 a football team, never heard of it. 2179 01:50:04.880 --> 01:50:08.760 They build the footballs. That's what they do there. Look, 2180 01:50:08.840 --> 01:50:11.960 Kentucky gets up for games like Texas and Georgia, for sure, 2181 01:50:12.119 --> 01:50:14.920 But they got Vandy and Louisville coming up in their schedule, 2182 01:50:15.199 --> 01:50:17.960 two huge rivels. Their season is not dead. I don't 2183 01:50:18.000 --> 01:50:21.239 expect them to be sharp here, and this has gotta 2184 01:50:21.239 --> 01:50:24.239 be this part for Tennessee Tech. And since Tennessee Tech 2185 01:50:24.279 --> 01:50:27.159 quarterback is better than arch anyway, so should be no 2186 01:50:27.199 --> 01:50:29.159 problem here for the gold Niggles. Let's go Tennessee Tech 2187 01:50:29.239 --> 01:50:32.039 plus the twenty one and a half free pick of 2188 01:50:32.079 --> 01:50:32.359 the Week. 2189 01:50:32.680 --> 01:50:35.119 I remember when I was thirteen, I used to watch 2190 01:50:35.640 --> 01:50:39.319 like daytime television. There'd be commercials for Tennessee Tech. And 2191 01:50:39.359 --> 01:50:41.720 now they say, hey, are you out of work? Come 2192 01:50:41.760 --> 01:50:44.239 to Tennessee Tech and learn how to be learn a trade, 2193 01:50:44.319 --> 01:50:46.920 be a be a mechanic, be a welder. That That's 2194 01:50:47.039 --> 01:50:49.119 that's all I know about Tennessee Tech. And maybe I 2195 01:50:49.159 --> 01:50:49.680 got the name on. 2196 01:50:52.319 --> 01:50:55.119 All right, Longhard telling about the fabulous Patreon one more 2197 01:50:55.159 --> 01:50:59.560 time they can find all these winners. Baby, let's do 2198 01:50:59.640 --> 01:51:02.439 a free up or another day real quick. Let's see 2199 01:51:02.479 --> 01:51:07.880 if before we get to that the Patriots not the Patriots. 2200 01:51:07.960 --> 01:51:09.520 We know they we know they wont Let's see how 2201 01:51:10.159 --> 01:51:12.960 did on his I know he's he's always got fucking Oh, 2202 01:51:13.039 --> 01:51:16.279 do you have something tonight? He always does? Let's see 2203 01:51:17.279 --> 01:51:20.600 uh Breese Hall under sixty two and a half d 2204 01:51:21.000 --> 01:51:24.800 over one and a half plus touch touchdowns. Let's see 2205 01:51:25.399 --> 01:51:27.239 I'm gonna think he won both of those. 2206 01:51:27.520 --> 01:51:29.560 He's got to hit the Brieese hole, honest, see him do. 2207 01:51:29.680 --> 01:51:31.800 Ship fifty eight yards. That's a winner. 2208 01:51:32.039 --> 01:51:32.600 There's a winner. 2209 01:51:32.920 --> 01:51:37.119 Maybe one touchdown a man hey, one on one though, 2210 01:51:37.159 --> 01:51:40.239 baby one one has been on a fucking fire, tell 2211 01:51:40.319 --> 01:51:43.000 him about that. But you can go get all these winners. 2212 01:51:43.399 --> 01:51:46.079 Yeah, speaking of c K and all those player prop winners, 2213 01:51:46.119 --> 01:51:49.479 go to our Patreon pagepatreon dot com, slash bet, underscore 2214 01:51:49.720 --> 01:51:52.159 f g H and joining on the funnel busting up 2215 01:51:52.159 --> 01:51:56.000 those bookies. Both Stevens has got an up NFL package 2216 01:51:56.239 --> 01:51:58.920 college package that's on fire, and get over there and 2217 01:51:59.039 --> 01:52:01.119 just get those and we enjoy the people coming in 2218 01:52:01.199 --> 01:52:02.880 on the comments section. So we look forward to that 2219 01:52:03.000 --> 01:52:06.239 each and every time we do a podcast. So hey, 2220 01:52:06.680 --> 01:52:08.479 stop going away your hard on money. I guess the game, 2221 01:52:08.520 --> 01:52:10.199 but the pros do they have any thing? Sign up, 2222 01:52:10.239 --> 01:52:12.760 turner print and never pay a fuck against He just 2223 01:52:12.800 --> 01:52:13.319 gets out here. 2224 01:52:14.600 --> 01:52:28.079 Never never was chance