Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Constance Video.
Speaker 2: In just a moment, we will introduce you, reintroduce you
Speaker 2: to friend Dave Paleologus. We had Spencer Kimball with us
Speaker 2: last night and Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University tonight, and
Speaker 2: we're kind of drilling down on polling up specifically political polling.
Speaker 2: And it's not often you can get a double play
Speaker 2: combination of Kimball and Paleo Logus and back to back night.
Speaker 2: So consider yourself lucky, you know, I consider myself very
Speaker 2: lucky here. And if you have questions for Dave Paleologus.
Speaker 3: You can line them up right now.
Speaker 2: But before we do that, got to give away a
Speaker 2: couple of tickets here. As we are gonna give away
Speaker 2: two tickets every night right after the nine o'clock news.
Speaker 2: You need to be calling number ten right now six one, seven, nine, three,
Speaker 2: one ten thirty will win two tickets to Celtic Thunder
Speaker 2: at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll
Speaker 2: set off on a musical journey with the Irish music
Speaker 2: sensations Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info and tickets are
Speaker 2: available at Foxwoods dot com. All you have to be
Speaker 2: is caller number ten, and I will remind you Dan,
Speaker 2: our producer is simply going to answer the phone call
Speaker 2: a one, call a two, call of three and move
Speaker 2: right through it. Uh and he will only let us
Speaker 2: know when we have caller number ten and you can
Speaker 2: call back.
Speaker 3: So if you're.
Speaker 2: Lucky enough to get through at call he number three,
Speaker 2: call back, you just have to land. It's almost like
Speaker 2: a case of musical chairs here on night Side. Do
Speaker 2: not call on any other number because the only number
Speaker 2: that we're going to be answer writing right now. If
Speaker 2: you want to talk to Dave Pale Logus, you call
Speaker 2: him the regular number which is six one seven, two,
Speaker 2: five four to ten thirty, but the number now six
Speaker 2: one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Call on number
Speaker 2: ten will win two tickets to see Celtic Thunder next
Speaker 2: week at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh.
Speaker 2: He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish
Speaker 2: music sensations. Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info tickets available
Speaker 2: at Foxwoods dot com. So as soon as we get
Speaker 2: the number and I can see that, the phone lines
Speaker 2: will lit up very quickly coming right down to it.
Speaker 2: So it's probably I would say, I'm going to hear
Speaker 2: pretty quickly from Dan that he has a uh, that
Speaker 2: he has the tenth caller within a matter of a
Speaker 2: few just got a winner right now, So you can
Speaker 2: stop calling. We'll be back tomorrow night, right after the
Speaker 2: nine o'clock news with another pair of tickets, and another
Speaker 2: pair on Friday night. But we have our winter tonight,
Speaker 2: so you can stop calling. Six one, seven, nine three.
Speaker 2: Dave Paley Logus, Welcome back to Nightside.
Speaker 3: How are you.
Speaker 4: I'm wow, great to be here.
Speaker 3: This is showtime for you. Huh.
Speaker 2: This is uh, this is the week that we've all
Speaker 2: been waiting for five days or whatever. It is Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
Speaker 2: and then it's showtime.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I remember at the beginning of this year,
Speaker 4: you know, thinking, oh, six months, I have to do
Speaker 4: all of these polls and everything. Am I ever going
Speaker 4: to get through it? And here it is next Tuesday.
Speaker 2: We talked with your colleague, uh, and he was He
Speaker 2: said that that you're was you were his mentor. He
Speaker 2: was with you at Suffolk for a while. He's out
Speaker 2: in his own now is an Emerson Polster, and he
Speaker 2: was going through how you folks have had to adapt
Speaker 2: to technology, technical changes we no longer you know, look
Speaker 2: at calling people on.
Speaker 3: Telephones and all of that.
Speaker 2: How tough is it to call these races, particularly a
Speaker 2: presidential race, accurately? How tough is it to do that?
Speaker 2: Has it become easier with technology or more difficult?
Speaker 4: I think it's become more difficult. You know, the technology
Speaker 4: is terrific in terms of reaching a lot of potential voters,
Speaker 4: but it's getting a complete you know. I mean, some
Speaker 4: surveys are fifteen minutes long. People don't have that long
Speaker 4: in their own lives to spend on a phone call.
Speaker 4: But I mean we're you know, when we release a
Speaker 4: national pull of a thousand respondents, we probably have to
Speaker 4: call twenty five thirty thousand households to get the right
Speaker 4: one thousand. That is the right proportion of all the
Speaker 4: demographics geography, age, gender, and political party affiliation, all of that.
Speaker 4: So it's more about getting the proportions right as it
Speaker 4: is doing a poll of ten thousand people five hundred people.
Speaker 2: Okay, so let's assume you start out right, and what
Speaker 2: do you do? You take a wave of you know
Speaker 2: a couple thousand people, and at that point, when you're
Speaker 2: starting fresh, you need certain percentage of men, certain percentage women, Democrats, Republicans, independents,
Speaker 2: different ethnic backgrounds, different states. I assume it's like filling
Speaker 2: in dots on a map.
Speaker 3: Or am I oversimplifying it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, it is. It is. Every poster has a
Speaker 4: different methodology. What we do is we set parameters by geography,
Speaker 4: and then what we'll do is we'll divide whether we're
Speaker 4: calling nationally or particular state into regions, and then within
Speaker 4: those regions, we fill buckets of demographics that most accurately
Speaker 4: reflect what we believe will be game conditions on election
Speaker 4: day in this election, and part of it is based
Speaker 4: on historical trends twenty twenty exit polls and so on,
Speaker 4: and then we kind of mix in with that current
Speaker 4: movements both by the census and people migrating from one
Speaker 4: area to another, and different demographic changes that may occur
Speaker 4: since the last presidential election. And when you add it
Speaker 4: all up, it comes out right. If the proportions are right,
Speaker 4: it comes out right. And that's the most difficult part,
Speaker 4: you know, is to make sure that you've got the
Speaker 4: correct apustion of whites, black, old, young, Democrats, Republicans and
Speaker 4: so on. And you know it's once you get it set,
Speaker 4: once the planning of what we call the sample frame
Speaker 4: is completed, then the phoning just kind of flows. You know,
Speaker 4: we monitor the first night, make sure that the calls
Speaker 4: are being done correctly, the skips are right on the questionnaire,
Speaker 4: and it just kind of it rolls for two or
Speaker 4: three days in the field, and then we gather the
Speaker 4: data back and we presented and published the results.
Speaker 2: Now, Spencer Kimber last night said they no longer use people,
Speaker 2: They're using computers.
Speaker 3: Are you still people based or we are?
Speaker 4: Yeah, we are. It's more expensive, and I know Spencer
Speaker 4: has got a little bit of a tighter budget, and
Speaker 4: his methodology is mixed. It's online panels and it's either
Speaker 4: our methodology. They do use some live caller, but it's
Speaker 4: small percent. We have always used live callers, professional phone banks.
Speaker 4: We continue to use live calls. It doesn't mean that
Speaker 4: that's a better methodology than someone else's polling, but we
Speaker 4: found it to be pretty good and in terms of
Speaker 4: the accuracy, it's it's worked out well for Suffolk, Okay.
Speaker 2: It's worked out very well for Suffolk And by the way,
Speaker 2: just so people understand, you do much more than political polling,
Speaker 2: give us an idea of the scope of your operation.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So, we do a lot of policy research and we
Speaker 4: do some creative polling that a lot of a lot
Speaker 4: of other institutes don't do. And you know, we've done
Speaker 4: just like exclusive polls of black voters only in Michigan
Speaker 4: and Pennsylvania this year, the only research out there that
Speaker 4: did that. We did an exclusive pole of Hispanic voters
Speaker 4: in Arizona and Nevada anticipating some of some of the
Speaker 4: recent demographic trends. That was unique. We've pulled the French
Speaker 4: France election a couple of cycles ago, done. We've done
Speaker 4: issues like when the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and there
Speaker 4: were teahouses in New York that were being vandalized, Russian
Speaker 4: tea houses because people were upset at Russia for the invasion.
Speaker 4: It was a student inspired research. We actually polled five
Speaker 4: hundred Russian Americans in the US and five hundred Ukrainian
Speaker 4: Americans in the US, and we've determined that there was
Speaker 4: not a lot of difference. Both subsets didn't like Putin,
Speaker 4: didn't like Russia, and were more or less pro Ukrainian.
Speaker 4: So we've used the research in many ways to differentiate ourselves.
Speaker 4: We also do city view polls of urban areas on
Speaker 4: police and racism and other urban issues. So we're using
Speaker 4: our platform to really get into the space.
Speaker 2: I would assume that a lot of Russians who would
Speaker 2: be in this country are in this country because they
Speaker 2: don't like Putin.
Speaker 4: Exactly, if you.
Speaker 2: Don't like Putin and you're in Russia, it's probably a
Speaker 2: tough place to live. My guest today, pale Logus, Dave,
Speaker 2: I want to ask you a little bit.
Speaker 3: I know that you've just have some poles.
Speaker 2: You've got some poles either coming out tomorrow or came
Speaker 2: out earlier today, different states. If I recall from our
Speaker 2: conversation of earlier this week and might correct on that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So Monday we released Wisconsin. We had Trump up
Speaker 4: by one in Wisconsin, and we released a Wisconsin bell
Speaker 4: Weather area, which a lot of the local people here
Speaker 4: and know from Suffolk pass polling. We not only do
Speaker 4: the state wide pole, which everybody does, we do the
Speaker 4: bell Weather area, which was dor County, and Harris actually
Speaker 4: did a little bit better in the bell Weather in
Speaker 4: door County than she did in the statewide Today we
Speaker 4: released Michigan. Michigan was a dead even race. Harris was
Speaker 4: up one in that Bellwether Kent County, and Friday were
Speaker 4: releasing Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2: Okay, I noticed that today five thirty eight dropped Trump's
Speaker 2: chances from fifty four to fifty three out of one
Speaker 2: hundred down to fifty one. I'd like to I know
Speaker 2: you're not associated with five thirty eight, but your polls
Speaker 2: are taken in consideration by then. It sounds to me
Speaker 2: like your polls might have had an influence in that
Speaker 2: that decision by five poin fifty eight. Did I read
Speaker 2: that correctly?
Speaker 4: Yeah? They did. They did. They do use our polls,
Speaker 4: and they incorporated that they obviously didn't expect us to
Speaker 4: have Michigan. Even a lot of the polls have Trump
Speaker 4: winning Michigan, but it is a coin flip right now,
Speaker 4: and he very well could win it, but because it
Speaker 4: is a margin of error race. But that poll did
Speaker 4: impact their five thirty eight rating. And in addition to that,
Speaker 4: CNN dropped a couple of polls today, both in Wisconsin
Speaker 4: and Michigan, showing Harris winning by between five and six
Speaker 4: points which was really vastly different than all of the polling,
Speaker 4: especially the ones showing Trump leading. So that kind of
Speaker 4: throw a monkey wrench into their model.
Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly, nothing like some surprises at the end. Will
Speaker 2: take a break if folks would like to join the
Speaker 2: conversation with Dave Paleologus six one, seven, two, five, four
Speaker 2: to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty,
Speaker 2: and we'll we'll break down some of these states and
Speaker 2: get some sense as to where no one's going to
Speaker 2: be able to predict it for you, but you can
Speaker 2: probably read between the lines or listen to what you
Speaker 2: hear Dave Paleologus say and pick up some interesting insights.
Speaker 3: Back on Nightside right after this.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Speaker 1: Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: Dave were a little short here on time to the news,
Speaker 2: so I'm going to hold off the calls and to
Speaker 2: right after the news and we will get to the
Speaker 2: calls immediately. Can do you have some time to take
Speaker 2: some calls, By the way, I don't want to be presentable.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, absolutely great.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much so. This race, I was hoping
Speaker 2: for a decisive win for either one of the candidates,
Speaker 2: because I think if we have to go through what
Speaker 2: we went through in twenty twenty again with a close
Speaker 2: race and all sorts of protestations and arguments and all that,
Speaker 2: it looks to me like what I'm hearing you say
Speaker 2: is that there's no chance that this is going to
Speaker 2: be a big, easy win for either one of these candidates.
Speaker 3: This is going to go down to the wire. It
Speaker 3: sounds to me like what you're telling me. Now, Am
Speaker 3: I reading you correctly?
Speaker 4: If the polls are accurate, you're yes. But if there
Speaker 4: is a polling miss across the board by even two
Speaker 4: or three points, Kamalin Harris could sweep or Trump could sweep.
Speaker 4: So it really will depend on the sort of the
Speaker 4: aggregate of the polling averages in each of the states.
Speaker 2: Okay, I got a quick question in the past. In
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen and even in twenty twenty, Trump did better
Speaker 2: than he was polling every once I think familiar with
Speaker 2: the numbers. You know, Joe Biden was ahead of him
Speaker 2: by a certain percentage points in certain states. Hillary Clinton
Speaker 2: was even further ahead of him. Is there a hidden
Speaker 2: Trump vote out there that you folks cannot calculate or
Speaker 2: have you been able to figure out how to work
Speaker 2: that into these numbers.
Speaker 4: Well, it wasn't twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Part of
Speaker 4: the reason was that all of the pollsters weren't factoring
Speaker 4: in education level. People with less than a college degree
Speaker 4: disproportionately support Trump, people with a college degree or better
Speaker 4: disproportionately support the Democratic nominee for president. I think the
Speaker 4: polling community caught up in twenty twenty, but they didn't
Speaker 4: include what we call the recall question, which is who
Speaker 4: did you vote for in the last election, Which means,
Speaker 4: if you have a poll today, h and you ask
Speaker 4: the recall question, who did you vote for in twenty twenty,
Speaker 4: and it's fifteen points higher for Biden or for Trump,
Speaker 4: you know that the polling subsample is wrong, and so
Speaker 4: pulses need to adjust for that. If you include both
Speaker 4: the educational the correct proportions of educational attainment, and the
Speaker 4: recall question from the previous election, you'll probably do a
Speaker 4: pretty good job calling the race.
Speaker 2: So then you think that there is something in that
Speaker 2: Trump camp who was saying, oh, you know, as long
Speaker 2: as it's tied, Trump's going to win by four or
Speaker 2: five points, because that's that's been his track. But what
Speaker 2: you're saying is that that now has been calculated in
Speaker 2: and that quote unquote hidden Trump vote is probably not
Speaker 2: there as strong this time as it was four years
Speaker 2: ago or eight years ago.
Speaker 4: I don't I don't think to the extent that there
Speaker 4: was an over an overcall in twenty twenty twenty sixteen.
Speaker 4: It was a very big gap twenty twenty, a gap,
Speaker 4: but not as big. I think that the polling community
Speaker 4: is catching up with the Trump factor. There are some
Speaker 4: people who think that Trump will be overpolled. If you
Speaker 4: look at the polling and the Republican primaries back in
Speaker 4: the spring, Trump was overpolled and he wasn't hitting the
Speaker 4: mark as high as what the pollsters had him at.
Speaker 4: So there is a school of thought. There are people
Speaker 4: out there who say, maybe Kamala Harris is being underpolled,
Speaker 4: especially in communities and rural communities where people don't want
Speaker 4: to say they're voting Democratic in a rural area to
Speaker 4: a pollster, and it's more of a closet goal for
Speaker 4: the Democrat. So I don't buy into, well, you know,
Speaker 4: we're all missing Trump by five or six points across
Speaker 4: the board. I could be wrong, but I think the
Speaker 4: polling community has kind of caught.
Speaker 5: Up with that.
Speaker 2: Okay, and my last question before we go to the news,
Speaker 2: and then we'll go to phone calls right after that.
Speaker 2: Trump seems to be, for the polls I see, seems
Speaker 2: to be doing better with black and Latino voters than
Speaker 2: he has in the past and other Republicans. Is that
Speaker 2: number going to melt between now and Tuesday or or
Speaker 2: do you think that's going to hold from what you've seen.
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, Harris is going to win both
Speaker 4: blacks and overwhelmingly and Hispanics pretty comfortably. The only problem
Speaker 4: Harris has is young Black men ages thirty eighteen to
Speaker 4: thirty four. Those voters are voting for either Trump or
Speaker 4: third party in higher proportions than four years ago. Hispanics
Speaker 4: it's eighteen eight It's young Hispanic men and middle aged
Speaker 4: Hispanic men. Because we did in our Hispanic only poland Nevada.
Speaker 4: In Arizona ages eighteen to fifty, they were voting for
Speaker 4: Trump by twelve thirteen points, whereas they were splitting evenly
Speaker 4: between Trump and Biden four years ago. So those are
Speaker 4: the if you micro target just those categories, those are
Speaker 4: the only categories within Hispanic and Black which are problematic
Speaker 4: for Harris, and she still hasn't cracked that yet. She
Speaker 4: still hasn't won back the young black voter, a young
Speaker 4: black male voter, and the young male Hispanic voter and
Speaker 4: middle aged male Hispanic voter.
Speaker 2: So the actual voted twenty twenty with Biden amongst black voters.
Speaker 3: And I'm sure you know this so off the top
Speaker 3: of your head, I don't.
Speaker 2: It was by something like ninety percent and Trump was
Speaker 2: nine percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was not. In the swing states, it was
Speaker 4: ninety two to seven, Okay, swing and right now and
Speaker 4: right now and right now, Harris is like eighty to
Speaker 4: fifteen or eighty to sixteen, which you would say, well,
Speaker 4: that's still great, and it is great, but it's not
Speaker 4: the night. She's got to get up to ninety percent
Speaker 4: in the black community, and young black men are holding
Speaker 4: that number down a little bit. And the reason is
Speaker 4: because in Pennsylvania, which is really a red state except
Speaker 4: for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, black voters have to overwhelmingly deliver
Speaker 4: a big margin coming out of Philadelphia County in order
Speaker 4: to carry Pennsylvania. Same thing with Detroit carrying it into
Speaker 4: the rural areas of Michigan.
Speaker 2: So if Harris can't get up to that to the
Speaker 2: Biden level in a really close race, why does she
Speaker 2: make up that difference. If she can't make it up
Speaker 2: amongst you know, young black men.
Speaker 4: She makes it up in two areas. Number One, older voters.
Speaker 4: She's polling older voters better than Biden did. Believe it
Speaker 4: or not, Trump was winning. Trump was winning older voters.
Speaker 4: In the exit polls, She's capturing more older voters than
Speaker 4: Biden did four years ago. And there were some Republicans,
Speaker 4: disaffected Republicans where Haley voters who will never vote for
Speaker 4: Harris but they haven't really warmed up to Trump. They
Speaker 4: are voting for Trump, but in many of these state
Speaker 4: ballots they have multiple other third party options, yep. And
Speaker 4: they could just say, look, I'm going to vote for
Speaker 4: the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate, and that
Speaker 4: would be costly to Trump.
Speaker 2: I assume his pollsters, Trump's posters are telling him the
Speaker 2: same thing. They must be seeing the same numbers you're seeing.
Speaker 2: Why do you think do you think that Trump, at
Speaker 2: some point in the next few days is going to
Speaker 2: say I got to call NICKI Haley and I got
Speaker 2: to make some appearances with Nicki Haley.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I absolutely believe that. You know, I just
Speaker 4: saw Nicki Haley interviewed and she was campaigning for McCormick
Speaker 4: in Pennsylvania, and they were like, are you're going to
Speaker 4: be with Trump? And she basically said, I haven't heard
Speaker 4: from him since June. I think you heard that.
Speaker 3: I heard that.
Speaker 2: So how can Trump be that dumb or that's stubborn? If, if,
Speaker 2: if that could be what he needs to push himself
Speaker 2: over the line.
Speaker 3: That's that's to me interesting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's kind of a character flaw. It's
Speaker 4: a character flaw. He doesn't he doesn't want anyone taking
Speaker 4: credit If he believes he's gonna win, he doesn't want
Speaker 4: anybody taking credit for it, especially Nikki Haley. He has
Speaker 4: his own VP, and there's a certain pride factor which
Speaker 4: could come back and bite him off. Yeah, that's that's
Speaker 4: a decision that his campaign has to figure out. They
Speaker 4: have to go through the poll. They won't pulling numbers
Speaker 4: and figure that out, or it could be costly in
Speaker 4: one or two of these swing states.
Speaker 3: Maybe they're running out of time.
Speaker 2: As simple as that, David, let's do this, Let's let's
Speaker 2: hold on. We'll get callers on the other side. We'll
Speaker 2: be right back. I promise I'll have a quick newscast
Speaker 2: to be right back.
Speaker 3: We'll go to the callers. My name's Dan Ray.
Speaker 2: His is Day Pale Logus, along with Spencer Kimball and
Speaker 2: John Zogby. I don't think you can find better pollsters
Speaker 2: than these three gentlemen, and I get a sense that
Speaker 2: all three of them are seeing this fairly similarly. I
Speaker 2: just commend them to you. It's your decision whether you
Speaker 2: want to believe him or not. We'll be back on
Speaker 2: Nightside six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or
Speaker 2: six one, seven, nine three thirty. You can talk to
Speaker 2: a polster, one of the best, live right after the news.
Speaker 1: It's Night Side with Dan d Boston's news Radio.
Speaker 2: Well, ready to go, let's I'm looking folks for questions.
Speaker 2: You know, there's no sense of trying to argue with
Speaker 2: Dave Pelly Logus, but ask whatever questions you like, because frankly, uh,
Speaker 2: he's equipped with a lot of information.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: It seems to me that this race has gone back
Speaker 2: and forth Dave, and a week ago, I think the
Speaker 2: numbers would have been a little stronger for Trump. And
Speaker 2: maybe he's hitting a little bit of maybe he hit
Speaker 2: a plateau, maybe he's he's sliding here. That's the only
Speaker 2: thing I can I can figure as I follow the numbers.
Speaker 2: You know the numbers better than me. How far off
Speaker 2: I on that analysis?
Speaker 4: No, not far off at all. I mean I have
Speaker 4: the same feeling just looking at the numbers. I think
Speaker 4: Trump peaked probably a week or so ago, and either
Speaker 4: the pendulum is swinging slowly back to Kamala Harris, or
Speaker 4: maybe Trump is plateauing, as you say, and he's kind
Speaker 4: of coasting into Tuesday. But no matter what happens, it's
Speaker 4: really all about field operation right now, getting your vote
Speaker 4: identified and knocking on doors and pulling them out on
Speaker 4: election day.
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the call.
Speaker 2: It's gonna go first to Nick and Weymouth. Nick, you
Speaker 2: are first this hour a Night'sie with Suffolk University poster
Speaker 2: Dave Pale logus. Go ahead, Nick, Okay. If Nick's not ready,
Speaker 2: we're gonna move on. We're putting Nick on hold. He's
Speaker 2: obviously not ready, and we're gonna go to Dan. Please
Speaker 2: put Nick on hold, if you would, thank you very much.
Speaker 3: Let's go to Stephen Cambridge, Steven Cambridge, You're first up.
Speaker 3: Go right ahead, Steve.
Speaker 6: People who will answer posters and people who won't, So
Speaker 6: to some degree, anybody who answers a poster is self selecting.
Speaker 6: Do you ever think about that? And do you have
Speaker 6: any way to control for that?
Speaker 2: I clipped you at the beginning. That was my mistake, Steve,
Speaker 2: I clipped you at the beginning. Just rephrase that question
Speaker 2: quickly for Dave Paleologus plays.
Speaker 6: There are people who will answer posters questions and people
Speaker 6: who will never answer posters questions. So to some degree,
Speaker 6: the people who answer posters questions are self selecting part
Speaker 6: of the population. Does Dave have any way of controlling
Speaker 6: for that or does he ever think about that?
Speaker 3: Great question?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think about it. And the answer to
Speaker 4: the question is that the that person who doesn't answer
Speaker 4: the call does not have any unique demographic that we
Speaker 4: won't pick up at some point with numerous trials. In
Speaker 4: other words, if that person is a conservative white male
Speaker 4: between the ages of thirty and forty five, some not
Speaker 4: every you know, not every white male between thirty and
Speaker 4: forty five has that resistance to being interviewed. And so
Speaker 4: the key is that every demographic is represented, and some
Speaker 4: demographics are harder to get others than others. For example,
Speaker 4: what we do in the last night of calling is
Speaker 4: we what we call quota phil which means that if
Speaker 4: there are demographics that are lower that we need to increase,
Speaker 4: we have two options. We can either weight the sample
Speaker 4: at the end or fill quotas. I don't like waiting
Speaker 4: is a general rule, because it pulls another demographic out
Speaker 4: of whack. It's like whackamo. You adjust for one demographic
Speaker 4: and something else pops up and it's out of whack,
Speaker 4: and you adjust for that and so on. So what
Speaker 4: I would rather do is fill quotas. So it's time consuming,
Speaker 4: it costs a lot of money, but I think it's
Speaker 4: well worth it if you can fill quotas and have
Speaker 4: a balanced survey responding pool that matches the correct proportions demographically.
Speaker 6: Dave one more question, and I mean this respectfully. Definitely,
Speaker 6: all of this polling makes for very good news copy
Speaker 6: and the public likes it. Makes everything exciting. Do you
Speaker 6: see it serving any real purpose in terms of what's
Speaker 6: good for the country or what's good for our democracy,
Speaker 6: et cetera, et cetera. Do you see any real purpose
Speaker 6: in it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do. I mean, I'm very bullish on it.
Speaker 4: I mean, we did on an entire poll on sexual harassment
Speaker 4: in the workplace, sexual assault. It had an incredible amount
Speaker 4: of staying power. We called we did a poll of
Speaker 4: unregistered unlikely voters, which nobody pulls. Everybody polls likely voters,
Speaker 4: and we found really interesting findings about the one hundred
Speaker 4: million people who won't vote in the United States who
Speaker 4: are eligible to vote. So I think the polling does
Speaker 4: teach us a lot and informs us of how we
Speaker 4: can be better as a society. One of the projects
Speaker 4: we did at the university was we did a poll
Speaker 4: of Newark residents. Because Newark had a consent decree against
Speaker 4: itself with the Department of Justice, and the DJ approached
Speaker 4: Suffolk asking us to bid on it. We did a
Speaker 4: survey of residents of Newark and we made some really
Speaker 4: stiff recommendations for the Newark Police Department, some of which
Speaker 4: they adopted, some of which they didn't. The year after
Speaker 4: that poll was published, not a shot was fired by
Speaker 4: a Newark police officer in an entire year, and so
Speaker 4: one of my students, Keith Horvath, who still works for me.
Speaker 4: I remember him saying. He came right out of the
Speaker 4: classroom and he said, I can't believe that this poll.
Speaker 4: I feel like the poll we worked on saved lives.
Speaker 4: I've never ever felt that way. And I was stuck
Speaker 4: fund to hear a student say that to me, that
Speaker 4: a poll, just a little poll, this student believed saved lies.
Speaker 4: But the truth is is that the police department adopted
Speaker 4: the recommendations and maybe some good can come out of it.
Speaker 4: It's not a perfect unit.
Speaker 6: About the presidential polling. Do you think good can come
Speaker 6: out of it?
Speaker 4: I think it can in terms of the undecided voters,
Speaker 4: and you can be informed about like what under like
Speaker 4: we're undecided thinking of voting. For example, we published third
Speaker 4: party candidates everybody that's listed on the ballot. Let's say
Speaker 4: that Jill Stein and Cornell West get a larger proportion
Speaker 4: of the vote than we're currently showing at the expense
Speaker 4: of Kamala Harris. Trump could win that state if Jill
Speaker 4: Stein upticks and Cornell West uptics in Michigan, for example,
Speaker 4: that is an important finding, and that's why we report
Speaker 4: every candidate that's listed on a ballot. Some posters they'll
Speaker 4: do just Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump, two people. Then
Speaker 4: they'll have an option for another, uh, you know, an
Speaker 4: other choice. And if the respondent names it, they names it,
Speaker 4: they name it. We actually name all of the candidates
Speaker 4: because those little third party candidates at are half a
Speaker 4: point or a quarter of a point in a tight
Speaker 4: race could make all the difference in the world.
Speaker 6: Thank you both, Thank you, Dan, Thank you Dave.
Speaker 2: Great question marks, great questions and great answers. Will be
Speaker 2: back good Night Side right after this.
Speaker 1: Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World
Speaker 1: Night Side Studios on WBZ News Radio.
Speaker 2: Back to the phones for Poster Suffolk, Poster Dave PAILLEYO logus,
Speaker 2: Nick and Weymouth.
Speaker 3: You're up, Hope, you're ready? Go ahead? Nick?
Speaker 7: Is that ready?
Speaker 1: Hey?
Speaker 7: I'm looking and what I like to look at is
Speaker 7: the real clear polling electoral map. What I'm looking at
Speaker 7: the toss ups states have recently increased. Okay, they're like
Speaker 7: a heart at night now. So it's been reshuffling.
Speaker 3: And so there's only fifty states.
Speaker 2: What are you talking about? One hundred and eight toss
Speaker 2: up states? Come on, Nick, what are you talking about?
Speaker 7: Is a hard and eight toss up states could go
Speaker 7: either way, not staying.
Speaker 3: There's only we only have fifty states.
Speaker 7: Excuse me, one hundred and eight electoral votes.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, okay, now you've clarified.
Speaker 3: That's good. Nick, go ahead. What's your question?
Speaker 7: They for the states that are toss ups. Okay, that
Speaker 7: you add up the electoral votes.
Speaker 5: That's the hundred I get it, I get it.
Speaker 3: Nick. You're wasting my time. What you question?
Speaker 7: Let me finish. I'll finish. Okay, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 2: We know the toss up states. Nick, we know the
Speaker 2: toss up states. You're wasted my time.
Speaker 7: If he wins, If Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,
Speaker 7: in New Hampshire, he'll get to seventy two based on
Speaker 7: my on my calculations.
Speaker 3: Good for you, Good for you.
Speaker 7: So what you question, Amphony pencil.
Speaker 2: See you that good night? Okay, I have no he's
Speaker 2: just wasting my time here. Let's keep going here, Dave.
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of, you know, variations and permutations that
Speaker 2: can get different candidates to different numbers.
Speaker 3: That's part of the fun of it.
Speaker 2: Let me go next to Anthony and Cambridge. Anthony A
Speaker 2: little bit more direct on your question. Go ahead, Anthony.
Speaker 8: Thank you, Dan, and great to have Dave on. He's fantastic, Dave.
Speaker 8: How much how much time money is invested now in
Speaker 8: trying to figure out who has voted early and how
Speaker 8: to direct the money towards certain demographics. You mentioned that
Speaker 8: all the voters have started to swing towards Harris. That's
Speaker 8: a group that I would assume would be higher in
Speaker 8: early voting. How hot is it to track exactly who
Speaker 8: has voted? And I'm just to close, I'm fascinated with
Speaker 8: early voting. I think there's a bit of momentum going
Speaker 8: for Harris. Seemed to be a little scale and it
Speaker 8: could be ironic that, you know, with Trump being so
Speaker 8: against early voting, it could turn out that he's the
Speaker 8: biggest beneficiary of it if her momentum ends up, you know,
Speaker 8: coming at the end and not having the impact it would.
Speaker 8: But can you talk a little bit about early voting
Speaker 8: and how that impacts everything, because it's it's a fascinating topic, Dan, Thank.
Speaker 3: You, David.
Speaker 2: Sure.
Speaker 4: So, the early voting has been Harris in most every
Speaker 4: pole that we've been doing, by like thirty points. Now,
Speaker 4: that's not unusual. Biden won by thirty one in early
Speaker 4: voting in our last national poll four years ago. Harris
Speaker 4: was winning by twenty nine in the national poll. So
Speaker 4: she's right there in terms of the early voting, and
Speaker 4: was seeing the same thing in the swing states as well.
Speaker 4: And there were you know, in the swing states for example.
Speaker 4: You know, we had a large early lead among Wisconsin
Speaker 4: early voters and Trump was winning by one. So the
Speaker 4: early voting is an indicator, but it will shift because
Speaker 4: mail in voting is all Democratic pretty much. Early in
Speaker 4: person voting is more of a mix, and election day
Speaker 4: voting is overwhelmingly Trump. So Trump has made improvements in Nevada.
Speaker 4: You mentioned Nevada, caller, Nevada is one of those states
Speaker 4: where Republicans are overperforming on the early voting, especially in
Speaker 4: the rural counties.
Speaker 9: All right, but your data is based on polling people
Speaker 9: who have voted early, not assumptions based on the demographics
Speaker 9: or of the data of people who voted. How much
Speaker 9: information do you get from the local and state elected
Speaker 9: you know, election officials on who has voted.
Speaker 4: We watched that and it changes from day to day,
Speaker 4: and you can you know, there's a website where you
Speaker 4: can track how how much of the early voting has
Speaker 4: come in, Like in Massachusetts, I think a million two
Speaker 4: have already voted something like that, a million three out
Speaker 4: of the whatever three point six or whatever. However many
Speaker 4: people vote Massachusetts, and you can get statistics updated every
Speaker 4: day on what the early voting is, and sometimes they
Speaker 4: include like whether or not they know information about the
Speaker 4: age differences, the party differences, and you know, obviously Democrats
Speaker 4: are turning out in higher intensity and that reflects higher
Speaker 4: excitement for Harris. But Biden had Bob Biden had it
Speaker 4: as well.
Speaker 8: Most of those assumptions.
Speaker 3: Based on Anthony.
Speaker 2: Anthony, pardon me, Anthony, I have one of the call
Speaker 2: I'd like to get to. Okay, so thank you again here,
Speaker 2: thank you, Welcome to Anthony, Thank you. Let me go
Speaker 2: to Scott and Quincy. Scott, you got to be quick
Speaker 2: for me or the end of the line.
Speaker 5: Go right ahead, Yes, indeed, Dan, great show. Right, So, hey,
Speaker 5: I'd like to know about the correlation between news media
Speaker 5: outlet coverage of Trump versus Harris. When I watched the
Speaker 5: Evening News on YouTube, you can see in their hashmarks
Speaker 5: on the bottom of the screen, like three quarters of
Speaker 5: the content on a lot of the nightly news shows,
Speaker 5: it's like about how horrible Donald Trump is and is
Speaker 5: that type of media coverage skewing people's opinions across the nation?
Speaker 5: And Dan question for you should it be legal? Should
Speaker 5: news media outlets have to give equal time to both
Speaker 5: sides of the story and to do what they want.
Speaker 2: That's why we have a First Amendment. The First Amendment
Speaker 2: doesn't regulate what news media outlets. I perceive on some
Speaker 2: of the nightly newscast particularly ABC a bias, but that's
Speaker 2: my personal observation. Might be right, it might be wrong.
Speaker 2: Day paleologus, you do not track that correct.
Speaker 4: No, but it's a good question. And if there are
Speaker 4: races where there is a high undecided, then you have
Speaker 4: the halo effect, which is that you can be influenced
Speaker 4: by what you what signals you are receiving, and what
Speaker 4: you're what you're hearing, such that your opinion would be
Speaker 4: shaped positively or negatively based on getting that repetition of
Speaker 4: signals barraging into your brain cells. And where in this
Speaker 4: situation you have a low undecided, it's probably less likely
Speaker 4: people are pretty much hunkered down and they you know,
Speaker 4: in terms of who they're going to vote for. But
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, I'm in kind of an interesting
Speaker 4: position because we have I have multiple media partners, some
Speaker 4: of which take an active role politically and some which don't.
Speaker 4: For example, we partner with the Boston Globe. We've been
Speaker 4: a longtime partner of the Globe. They endorsed in this
Speaker 4: presidential election USA today, which we do the other states
Speaker 4: and national pulling with they have stained they did not
Speaker 4: endorse for a candidate in the presidential election. So some
Speaker 4: media outlets are due to ownership or due to their
Speaker 4: political philosophies. They're dictated by how involved they get, whether
Speaker 4: it's broadcast media or newspaper in terms of putting out
Speaker 4: an abundance of information one way or the other.
Speaker 2: All right, Scott, we're flat out of time. I thank
Speaker 2: you very much, got for your question. Thank you, sir,
Speaker 2: Dave Paley Locus. I thank you immentally, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for once again giving us some insights, valuable insights.
Speaker 2: And let's see what happens on Tuesday night. Maybe we'll
Speaker 2: talk Tuesday night at some point if you might be
Speaker 2: available as the real votes and the real numbers start
Speaker 2: to come in and see how close they are to
Speaker 2: what you and Spencer and others.
Speaker 4: Have found that would be great. And thank you listeners
Speaker 4: for those great questions.
Speaker 3: I appreciate the good questions. Yes there were.
Speaker 2: I was confused, but the guy was telling me now
Speaker 2: about one hundred and eight states. I'm sorry about that. Anyway,
Speaker 2: I wasn't confused, but I think he was. Thanks Dave
Speaker 2: Paley Logus. We will talk soon. Thank you, my friend. Okay,
Speaker 2: thanks very much. Back right after the ten o'clock news,
Speaker 2: we're going to talk about would you buy a haunted house.
Speaker 2: We're gonna just get a little lighter for a moment.
Speaker 3: We'll go back to politics later