WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.800 --> 00:00:05.759 It's Night Side with Dan Ray on WBS Constance Video. 2 00:00:07.280 --> 00:00:10.320 In just a moment, we will introduce you, reintroduce you 3 00:00:10.439 --> 00:00:15.759 to friend Dave Paleologus. We had Spencer Kimball with us 4 00:00:15.880 --> 00:00:20.120 last night and Dave Paleologus of Suffolk University tonight, and 5 00:00:20.199 --> 00:00:26.079 we're kind of drilling down on polling up specifically political polling. 6 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:29.239 And it's not often you can get a double play 7 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:32.600 combination of Kimball and Paleo Logus and back to back night. 8 00:00:32.719 --> 00:00:35.960 So consider yourself lucky, you know, I consider myself very 9 00:00:36.039 --> 00:00:39.640 lucky here. And if you have questions for Dave Paleologus. 10 00:00:38.960 --> 00:00:40.280 You can line them up right now. 11 00:00:40.320 --> 00:00:42.600 But before we do that, got to give away a 12 00:00:42.600 --> 00:00:45.240 couple of tickets here. As we are gonna give away 13 00:00:45.240 --> 00:00:47.960 two tickets every night right after the nine o'clock news. 14 00:00:47.960 --> 00:00:53.240 You need to be calling number ten right now six one, seven, nine, three, 15 00:00:53.399 --> 00:00:56.920 one ten thirty will win two tickets to Celtic Thunder 16 00:00:57.320 --> 00:01:01.399 at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. He'll 17 00:01:01.439 --> 00:01:04.359 set off on a musical journey with the Irish music 18 00:01:04.480 --> 00:01:10.000 sensations Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info and tickets are 19 00:01:10.000 --> 00:01:13.159 available at Foxwoods dot com. All you have to be 20 00:01:13.439 --> 00:01:16.519 is caller number ten, and I will remind you Dan, 21 00:01:16.640 --> 00:01:19.280 our producer is simply going to answer the phone call 22 00:01:19.280 --> 00:01:21.120 a one, call a two, call of three and move 23 00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:24.000 right through it. Uh and he will only let us 24 00:01:24.040 --> 00:01:27.319 know when we have caller number ten and you can 25 00:01:27.359 --> 00:01:27.840 call back. 26 00:01:27.920 --> 00:01:28.920 So if you're. 27 00:01:28.840 --> 00:01:30.599 Lucky enough to get through at call he number three, 28 00:01:30.640 --> 00:01:32.680 call back, you just have to land. It's almost like 29 00:01:32.680 --> 00:01:35.400 a case of musical chairs here on night Side. Do 30 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:38.280 not call on any other number because the only number 31 00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:40.280 that we're going to be answer writing right now. If 32 00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:42.519 you want to talk to Dave Pale Logus, you call 33 00:01:42.640 --> 00:01:44.599 him the regular number which is six one seven, two, 34 00:01:44.599 --> 00:01:46.959 five four to ten thirty, but the number now six 35 00:01:47.079 --> 00:01:50.760 one seven, nine three one ten thirty. Call on number 36 00:01:50.799 --> 00:01:54.280 ten will win two tickets to see Celtic Thunder next 37 00:01:54.319 --> 00:01:58.040 week at the Premier Theater at Foxwoods on November seventh. 38 00:01:58.280 --> 00:02:01.159 He'll set off on a musical journey with the Irish 39 00:02:01.239 --> 00:02:07.239 music sensations. Celtic Thunder Live. Complete show info tickets available 40 00:02:07.239 --> 00:02:09.439 at Foxwoods dot com. So as soon as we get 41 00:02:09.439 --> 00:02:11.000 the number and I can see that, the phone lines 42 00:02:11.000 --> 00:02:13.639 will lit up very quickly coming right down to it. 43 00:02:13.719 --> 00:02:16.800 So it's probably I would say, I'm going to hear 44 00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:20.520 pretty quickly from Dan that he has a uh, that 45 00:02:20.599 --> 00:02:22.520 he has the tenth caller within a matter of a 46 00:02:22.560 --> 00:02:24.800 few just got a winner right now, So you can 47 00:02:24.840 --> 00:02:27.719 stop calling. We'll be back tomorrow night, right after the 48 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:30.800 nine o'clock news with another pair of tickets, and another 49 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:33.319 pair on Friday night. But we have our winter tonight, 50 00:02:33.360 --> 00:02:36.400 so you can stop calling. Six one, seven, nine three. 51 00:02:37.680 --> 00:02:39.960 Dave Paley Logus, Welcome back to Nightside. 52 00:02:39.960 --> 00:02:40.400 How are you. 53 00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:43.680 I'm wow, great to be here. 54 00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:46.280 This is showtime for you. Huh. 55 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:49.719 This is uh, this is the week that we've all 56 00:02:49.759 --> 00:02:55.560 been waiting for five days or whatever. It is Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, 57 00:02:55.599 --> 00:02:57.080 and then it's showtime. 58 00:02:57.960 --> 00:02:59.960 Oh yeah, I remember at the beginning of this year, 59 00:03:00.319 --> 00:03:03.080 you know, thinking, oh, six months, I have to do 60 00:03:03.120 --> 00:03:05.479 all of these polls and everything. Am I ever going 61 00:03:05.520 --> 00:03:08.120 to get through it? And here it is next Tuesday. 62 00:03:08.840 --> 00:03:13.639 We talked with your colleague, uh, and he was He 63 00:03:13.719 --> 00:03:16.439 said that that you're was you were his mentor. He 64 00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:18.800 was with you at Suffolk for a while. He's out 65 00:03:18.840 --> 00:03:21.000 in his own now is an Emerson Polster, and he 66 00:03:21.080 --> 00:03:24.400 was going through how you folks have had to adapt 67 00:03:24.599 --> 00:03:28.759 to technology, technical changes we no longer you know, look 68 00:03:28.759 --> 00:03:29.719 at calling people on. 69 00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:30.879 Telephones and all of that. 70 00:03:32.039 --> 00:03:36.639 How tough is it to call these races, particularly a 71 00:03:36.680 --> 00:03:40.479 presidential race, accurately? How tough is it to do that? 72 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:43.960 Has it become easier with technology or more difficult? 73 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:47.360 I think it's become more difficult. You know, the technology 74 00:03:47.439 --> 00:03:53.120 is terrific in terms of reaching a lot of potential voters, 75 00:03:53.240 --> 00:03:56.360 but it's getting a complete you know. I mean, some 76 00:03:56.439 --> 00:03:59.280 surveys are fifteen minutes long. People don't have that long 77 00:04:00.919 --> 00:04:03.400 in their own lives to spend on a phone call. 78 00:04:04.800 --> 00:04:06.680 But I mean we're you know, when we release a 79 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:09.960 national pull of a thousand respondents, we probably have to 80 00:04:10.280 --> 00:04:14.400 call twenty five thirty thousand households to get the right 81 00:04:14.520 --> 00:04:16.920 one thousand. That is the right proportion of all the 82 00:04:17.000 --> 00:04:22.800 demographics geography, age, gender, and political party affiliation, all of that. 83 00:04:23.040 --> 00:04:27.120 So it's more about getting the proportions right as it 84 00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:31.319 is doing a poll of ten thousand people five hundred people. 85 00:04:31.639 --> 00:04:36.040 Okay, so let's assume you start out right, and what 86 00:04:36.040 --> 00:04:38.319 do you do? You take a wave of you know 87 00:04:38.800 --> 00:04:42.279 a couple thousand people, and at that point, when you're 88 00:04:42.319 --> 00:04:47.360 starting fresh, you need certain percentage of men, certain percentage women, Democrats, Republicans, independents, 89 00:04:47.680 --> 00:04:52.040 different ethnic backgrounds, different states. I assume it's like filling 90 00:04:52.079 --> 00:04:53.879 in dots on a map. 91 00:04:54.600 --> 00:04:56.399 Or am I oversimplifying it? 92 00:04:56.800 --> 00:05:00.920 Yeah, No, it is. It is. Every poster has a 93 00:05:00.959 --> 00:05:05.839 different methodology. What we do is we set parameters by geography, 94 00:05:06.160 --> 00:05:09.519 and then what we'll do is we'll divide whether we're 95 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:14.319 calling nationally or particular state into regions, and then within 96 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:19.000 those regions, we fill buckets of demographics that most accurately 97 00:05:19.079 --> 00:05:21.920 reflect what we believe will be game conditions on election 98 00:05:22.040 --> 00:05:24.639 day in this election, and part of it is based 99 00:05:24.680 --> 00:05:28.560 on historical trends twenty twenty exit polls and so on, 100 00:05:29.319 --> 00:05:32.560 and then we kind of mix in with that current 101 00:05:32.920 --> 00:05:37.920 movements both by the census and people migrating from one 102 00:05:37.959 --> 00:05:41.720 area to another, and different demographic changes that may occur 103 00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:47.759 since the last presidential election. And when you add it 104 00:05:47.800 --> 00:05:50.920 all up, it comes out right. If the proportions are right, 105 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:55.199 it comes out right. And that's the most difficult part, 106 00:05:55.279 --> 00:05:58.079 you know, is to make sure that you've got the 107 00:05:58.160 --> 00:06:02.920 correct apustion of whites, black, old, young, Democrats, Republicans and 108 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:09.000 so on. And you know it's once you get it set, 109 00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:11.519 once the planning of what we call the sample frame 110 00:06:11.639 --> 00:06:15.439 is completed, then the phoning just kind of flows. You know, 111 00:06:15.519 --> 00:06:18.519 we monitor the first night, make sure that the calls 112 00:06:18.519 --> 00:06:21.319 are being done correctly, the skips are right on the questionnaire, 113 00:06:22.279 --> 00:06:26.160 and it just kind of it rolls for two or 114 00:06:26.160 --> 00:06:28.879 three days in the field, and then we gather the 115 00:06:28.959 --> 00:06:31.879 data back and we presented and published the results. 116 00:06:32.519 --> 00:06:35.319 Now, Spencer Kimber last night said they no longer use people, 117 00:06:36.120 --> 00:06:37.199 They're using computers. 118 00:06:37.199 --> 00:06:41.199 Are you still people based or we are? 119 00:06:41.439 --> 00:06:44.600 Yeah, we are. It's more expensive, and I know Spencer 120 00:06:44.879 --> 00:06:48.759 has got a little bit of a tighter budget, and 121 00:06:48.879 --> 00:06:55.000 his methodology is mixed. It's online panels and it's either 122 00:06:55.120 --> 00:06:59.120 our methodology. They do use some live caller, but it's 123 00:06:59.199 --> 00:07:05.319 small percent. We have always used live callers, professional phone banks. 124 00:07:05.439 --> 00:07:08.439 We continue to use live calls. It doesn't mean that 125 00:07:08.439 --> 00:07:11.600 that's a better methodology than someone else's polling, but we 126 00:07:11.759 --> 00:07:14.839 found it to be pretty good and in terms of 127 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:21.279 the accuracy, it's it's worked out well for Suffolk, Okay. 128 00:07:21.360 --> 00:07:23.519 It's worked out very well for Suffolk And by the way, 129 00:07:23.639 --> 00:07:27.240 just so people understand, you do much more than political polling, 130 00:07:27.319 --> 00:07:31.439 give us an idea of the scope of your operation. 131 00:07:32.920 --> 00:07:33.120 Yeah. 132 00:07:33.160 --> 00:07:35.399 So, we do a lot of policy research and we 133 00:07:35.480 --> 00:07:38.279 do some creative polling that a lot of a lot 134 00:07:38.319 --> 00:07:42.360 of other institutes don't do. And you know, we've done 135 00:07:42.839 --> 00:07:46.959 just like exclusive polls of black voters only in Michigan 136 00:07:47.000 --> 00:07:50.160 and Pennsylvania this year, the only research out there that 137 00:07:50.319 --> 00:07:53.399 did that. We did an exclusive pole of Hispanic voters 138 00:07:53.399 --> 00:07:58.720 in Arizona and Nevada anticipating some of some of the 139 00:07:58.920 --> 00:08:03.920 recent demographic trends. That was unique. We've pulled the French 140 00:08:04.240 --> 00:08:10.120 France election a couple of cycles ago, done. We've done 141 00:08:10.160 --> 00:08:15.399 issues like when the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine and there 142 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:18.480 were teahouses in New York that were being vandalized, Russian 143 00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:22.600 tea houses because people were upset at Russia for the invasion. 144 00:08:23.959 --> 00:08:27.839 It was a student inspired research. We actually polled five 145 00:08:27.920 --> 00:08:31.560 hundred Russian Americans in the US and five hundred Ukrainian 146 00:08:31.600 --> 00:08:34.720 Americans in the US, and we've determined that there was 147 00:08:34.840 --> 00:08:38.440 not a lot of difference. Both subsets didn't like Putin, 148 00:08:38.519 --> 00:08:42.600 didn't like Russia, and were more or less pro Ukrainian. 149 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:46.879 So we've used the research in many ways to differentiate ourselves. 150 00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:50.600 We also do city view polls of urban areas on 151 00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:57.679 police and racism and other urban issues. So we're using 152 00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:00.720 our platform to really get into the space. 153 00:09:01.960 --> 00:09:04.360 I would assume that a lot of Russians who would 154 00:09:04.399 --> 00:09:06.679 be in this country are in this country because they 155 00:09:06.720 --> 00:09:07.519 don't like Putin. 156 00:09:08.240 --> 00:09:09.840 Exactly, if you. 157 00:09:09.879 --> 00:09:11.919 Don't like Putin and you're in Russia, it's probably a 158 00:09:11.919 --> 00:09:14.919 tough place to live. My guest today, pale Logus, Dave, 159 00:09:15.000 --> 00:09:16.559 I want to ask you a little bit. 160 00:09:16.639 --> 00:09:19.080 I know that you've just have some poles. 161 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:21.960 You've got some poles either coming out tomorrow or came 162 00:09:22.000 --> 00:09:24.919 out earlier today, different states. If I recall from our 163 00:09:24.960 --> 00:09:27.120 conversation of earlier this week and might correct on that. 164 00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:31.240 Yeah, So Monday we released Wisconsin. We had Trump up 165 00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:36.720 by one in Wisconsin, and we released a Wisconsin bell 166 00:09:36.720 --> 00:09:39.399 Weather area, which a lot of the local people here 167 00:09:39.440 --> 00:09:42.559 and know from Suffolk pass polling. We not only do 168 00:09:42.639 --> 00:09:44.399 the state wide pole, which everybody does, we do the 169 00:09:44.399 --> 00:09:50.440 bell Weather area, which was dor County, and Harris actually 170 00:09:50.480 --> 00:09:53.879 did a little bit better in the bell Weather in 171 00:09:53.960 --> 00:09:57.039 door County than she did in the statewide Today we 172 00:09:57.080 --> 00:10:01.799 released Michigan. Michigan was a dead even race. Harris was 173 00:10:01.879 --> 00:10:05.600 up one in that Bellwether Kent County, and Friday were 174 00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:07.519 releasing Pennsylvania. 175 00:10:07.879 --> 00:10:11.480 Okay, I noticed that today five thirty eight dropped Trump's 176 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:14.519 chances from fifty four to fifty three out of one 177 00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:17.679 hundred down to fifty one. I'd like to I know 178 00:10:17.720 --> 00:10:20.200 you're not associated with five thirty eight, but your polls 179 00:10:20.240 --> 00:10:22.519 are taken in consideration by then. It sounds to me 180 00:10:22.600 --> 00:10:24.519 like your polls might have had an influence in that 181 00:10:25.759 --> 00:10:27.840 that decision by five poin fifty eight. Did I read 182 00:10:27.840 --> 00:10:28.440 that correctly? 183 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:31.360 Yeah? They did. They did. They do use our polls, 184 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:36.960 and they incorporated that they obviously didn't expect us to 185 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:39.679 have Michigan. Even a lot of the polls have Trump 186 00:10:39.679 --> 00:10:43.960 winning Michigan, but it is a coin flip right now, 187 00:10:44.639 --> 00:10:48.799 and he very well could win it, but because it 188 00:10:48.879 --> 00:10:51.240 is a margin of error race. But that poll did 189 00:10:51.279 --> 00:10:55.399 impact their five thirty eight rating. And in addition to that, 190 00:10:55.559 --> 00:11:00.799 CNN dropped a couple of polls today, both in Wisconsin 191 00:11:00.840 --> 00:11:04.320 and Michigan, showing Harris winning by between five and six 192 00:11:04.360 --> 00:11:08.279 points which was really vastly different than all of the polling, 193 00:11:08.840 --> 00:11:12.279 especially the ones showing Trump leading. So that kind of 194 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:15.240 throw a monkey wrench into their model. 195 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:19.799 Yeah, certainly, nothing like some surprises at the end. Will 196 00:11:19.840 --> 00:11:22.200 take a break if folks would like to join the 197 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:25.519 conversation with Dave Paleologus six one, seven, two, five, four 198 00:11:25.480 --> 00:11:29.559 to ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty, 199 00:11:29.960 --> 00:11:32.200 and we'll we'll break down some of these states and 200 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:36.679 get some sense as to where no one's going to 201 00:11:36.720 --> 00:11:38.279 be able to predict it for you, but you can 202 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:40.960 probably read between the lines or listen to what you 203 00:11:41.039 --> 00:11:44.399 hear Dave Paleologus say and pick up some interesting insights. 204 00:11:44.440 --> 00:11:45.919 Back on Nightside right after this. 205 00:11:47.799 --> 00:11:50.960 Now back to Dan Ray live from the Window World 206 00:11:51.080 --> 00:11:54.200 Nightside Studios on WBZ News Radio. 207 00:11:55.159 --> 00:11:58.120 Dave were a little short here on time to the news, 208 00:11:58.120 --> 00:12:00.159 so I'm going to hold off the calls and to 209 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:02.440 right after the news and we will get to the 210 00:12:02.440 --> 00:12:04.679 calls immediately. Can do you have some time to take 211 00:12:04.679 --> 00:12:06.320 some calls, By the way, I don't want to be presentable. 212 00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:08.320 Absolutely, absolutely great. 213 00:12:08.159 --> 00:12:13.200 Thank you so much so. This race, I was hoping 214 00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:18.120 for a decisive win for either one of the candidates, 215 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:19.960 because I think if we have to go through what 216 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:22.399 we went through in twenty twenty again with a close 217 00:12:22.519 --> 00:12:26.120 race and all sorts of protestations and arguments and all that, 218 00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:28.679 it looks to me like what I'm hearing you say 219 00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:31.039 is that there's no chance that this is going to 220 00:12:31.039 --> 00:12:35.120 be a big, easy win for either one of these candidates. 221 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:36.480 This is going to go down to the wire. It 222 00:12:36.519 --> 00:12:38.240 sounds to me like what you're telling me. Now, Am 223 00:12:38.240 --> 00:12:39.240 I reading you correctly? 224 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:43.360 If the polls are accurate, you're yes. But if there 225 00:12:43.399 --> 00:12:46.039 is a polling miss across the board by even two 226 00:12:46.120 --> 00:12:50.039 or three points, Kamalin Harris could sweep or Trump could sweep. 227 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:55.279 So it really will depend on the sort of the 228 00:12:55.399 --> 00:12:59.679 aggregate of the polling averages in each of the states. 229 00:13:00.600 --> 00:13:04.120 Okay, I got a quick question in the past. In 230 00:13:04.159 --> 00:13:09.120 twenty sixteen and even in twenty twenty, Trump did better 231 00:13:09.200 --> 00:13:11.600 than he was polling every once I think familiar with 232 00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:13.600 the numbers. You know, Joe Biden was ahead of him 233 00:13:13.600 --> 00:13:17.039 by a certain percentage points in certain states. Hillary Clinton 234 00:13:17.080 --> 00:13:19.759 was even further ahead of him. Is there a hidden 235 00:13:19.759 --> 00:13:22.879 Trump vote out there that you folks cannot calculate or 236 00:13:22.919 --> 00:13:24.960 have you been able to figure out how to work 237 00:13:25.000 --> 00:13:26.399 that into these numbers. 238 00:13:26.879 --> 00:13:29.639 Well, it wasn't twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Part of 239 00:13:29.679 --> 00:13:33.440 the reason was that all of the pollsters weren't factoring 240 00:13:33.480 --> 00:13:37.159 in education level. People with less than a college degree 241 00:13:37.360 --> 00:13:41.919 disproportionately support Trump, people with a college degree or better 242 00:13:42.159 --> 00:13:46.440 disproportionately support the Democratic nominee for president. I think the 243 00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:51.399 polling community caught up in twenty twenty, but they didn't 244 00:13:51.440 --> 00:13:54.159 include what we call the recall question, which is who 245 00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:57.320 did you vote for in the last election, Which means, 246 00:13:57.879 --> 00:14:01.440 if you have a poll today, h and you ask 247 00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:05.759 the recall question, who did you vote for in twenty twenty, 248 00:14:05.799 --> 00:14:11.080 and it's fifteen points higher for Biden or for Trump, 249 00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:15.519 you know that the polling subsample is wrong, and so 250 00:14:15.720 --> 00:14:19.559 pulses need to adjust for that. If you include both 251 00:14:19.559 --> 00:14:25.120 the educational the correct proportions of educational attainment, and the 252 00:14:25.159 --> 00:14:29.080 recall question from the previous election, you'll probably do a 253 00:14:29.080 --> 00:14:30.519 pretty good job calling the race. 254 00:14:31.759 --> 00:14:34.720 So then you think that there is something in that 255 00:14:34.799 --> 00:14:36.759 Trump camp who was saying, oh, you know, as long 256 00:14:36.799 --> 00:14:38.799 as it's tied, Trump's going to win by four or 257 00:14:38.840 --> 00:14:42.679 five points, because that's that's been his track. But what 258 00:14:42.720 --> 00:14:46.200 you're saying is that that now has been calculated in 259 00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:50.679 and that quote unquote hidden Trump vote is probably not 260 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:54.679 there as strong this time as it was four years 261 00:14:54.720 --> 00:14:56.440 ago or eight years ago. 262 00:14:56.759 --> 00:15:01.399 I don't I don't think to the extent that there 263 00:15:01.440 --> 00:15:05.360 was an over an overcall in twenty twenty twenty sixteen. 264 00:15:05.399 --> 00:15:08.240 It was a very big gap twenty twenty, a gap, 265 00:15:08.320 --> 00:15:11.440 but not as big. I think that the polling community 266 00:15:11.720 --> 00:15:14.039 is catching up with the Trump factor. There are some 267 00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:17.879 people who think that Trump will be overpolled. If you 268 00:15:17.960 --> 00:15:21.799 look at the polling and the Republican primaries back in 269 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:25.799 the spring, Trump was overpolled and he wasn't hitting the 270 00:15:25.840 --> 00:15:29.120 mark as high as what the pollsters had him at. 271 00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:31.720 So there is a school of thought. There are people 272 00:15:31.720 --> 00:15:35.360 out there who say, maybe Kamala Harris is being underpolled, 273 00:15:36.519 --> 00:15:40.279 especially in communities and rural communities where people don't want 274 00:15:40.320 --> 00:15:43.960 to say they're voting Democratic in a rural area to 275 00:15:44.080 --> 00:15:46.720 a pollster, and it's more of a closet goal for 276 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:50.960 the Democrat. So I don't buy into, well, you know, 277 00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:54.080 we're all missing Trump by five or six points across 278 00:15:54.120 --> 00:15:56.600 the board. I could be wrong, but I think the 279 00:15:56.639 --> 00:15:58.200 polling community has kind of caught. 280 00:15:58.080 --> 00:15:58.440 Up with that. 281 00:15:59.559 --> 00:16:02.279 Okay, and my last question before we go to the news, 282 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:03.960 and then we'll go to phone calls right after that. 283 00:16:06.320 --> 00:16:08.759 Trump seems to be, for the polls I see, seems 284 00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:12.080 to be doing better with black and Latino voters than 285 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:14.840 he has in the past and other Republicans. Is that 286 00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:21.120 number going to melt between now and Tuesday or or 287 00:16:21.159 --> 00:16:23.360 do you think that's going to hold from what you've seen. 288 00:16:24.399 --> 00:16:26.879 Well, first of all, Harris is going to win both 289 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:33.480 blacks and overwhelmingly and Hispanics pretty comfortably. The only problem 290 00:16:33.600 --> 00:16:37.799 Harris has is young Black men ages thirty eighteen to 291 00:16:37.840 --> 00:16:42.440 thirty four. Those voters are voting for either Trump or 292 00:16:42.480 --> 00:16:47.240 third party in higher proportions than four years ago. Hispanics 293 00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:50.919 it's eighteen eight It's young Hispanic men and middle aged 294 00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:54.559 Hispanic men. Because we did in our Hispanic only poland Nevada. 295 00:16:54.639 --> 00:16:59.519 In Arizona ages eighteen to fifty, they were voting for 296 00:16:59.559 --> 00:17:04.359 Trump by twelve thirteen points, whereas they were splitting evenly 297 00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:07.920 between Trump and Biden four years ago. So those are 298 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:12.240 the if you micro target just those categories, those are 299 00:17:12.240 --> 00:17:15.839 the only categories within Hispanic and Black which are problematic 300 00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:18.440 for Harris, and she still hasn't cracked that yet. She 301 00:17:18.559 --> 00:17:21.880 still hasn't won back the young black voter, a young 302 00:17:21.920 --> 00:17:26.960 black male voter, and the young male Hispanic voter and 303 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:29.160 middle aged male Hispanic voter. 304 00:17:29.920 --> 00:17:34.359 So the actual voted twenty twenty with Biden amongst black voters. 305 00:17:34.880 --> 00:17:36.240 And I'm sure you know this so off the top 306 00:17:36.279 --> 00:17:37.319 of your head, I don't. 307 00:17:38.400 --> 00:17:41.160 It was by something like ninety percent and Trump was 308 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:41.920 nine percent. 309 00:17:44.839 --> 00:17:46.720 Yeah, it was not. In the swing states, it was 310 00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:51.000 ninety two to seven, Okay, swing and right now and 311 00:17:51.079 --> 00:17:54.359 right now and right now, Harris is like eighty to 312 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:57.400 fifteen or eighty to sixteen, which you would say, well, 313 00:17:57.400 --> 00:17:59.960 that's still great, and it is great, but it's not 314 00:18:00.359 --> 00:18:03.319 the night. She's got to get up to ninety percent 315 00:18:03.400 --> 00:18:06.000 in the black community, and young black men are holding 316 00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:09.799 that number down a little bit. And the reason is 317 00:18:09.839 --> 00:18:12.880 because in Pennsylvania, which is really a red state except 318 00:18:12.880 --> 00:18:17.599 for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, black voters have to overwhelmingly deliver 319 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:21.200 a big margin coming out of Philadelphia County in order 320 00:18:21.240 --> 00:18:25.000 to carry Pennsylvania. Same thing with Detroit carrying it into 321 00:18:25.000 --> 00:18:26.319 the rural areas of Michigan. 322 00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:29.920 So if Harris can't get up to that to the 323 00:18:29.960 --> 00:18:34.480 Biden level in a really close race, why does she 324 00:18:34.559 --> 00:18:37.799 make up that difference. If she can't make it up 325 00:18:37.839 --> 00:18:40.119 amongst you know, young black men. 326 00:18:40.920 --> 00:18:43.799 She makes it up in two areas. Number One, older voters. 327 00:18:43.839 --> 00:18:47.279 She's polling older voters better than Biden did. Believe it 328 00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:50.839 or not, Trump was winning. Trump was winning older voters. 329 00:18:50.839 --> 00:18:54.279 In the exit polls, She's capturing more older voters than 330 00:18:54.319 --> 00:18:57.839 Biden did four years ago. And there were some Republicans, 331 00:18:57.839 --> 00:19:01.880 disaffected Republicans where Haley voters who will never vote for 332 00:19:02.359 --> 00:19:05.920 Harris but they haven't really warmed up to Trump. They 333 00:19:05.920 --> 00:19:08.400 are voting for Trump, but in many of these state 334 00:19:08.480 --> 00:19:11.920 ballots they have multiple other third party options, yep. And 335 00:19:11.960 --> 00:19:14.920 they could just say, look, I'm going to vote for 336 00:19:15.039 --> 00:19:18.839 the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate, and that 337 00:19:18.880 --> 00:19:20.119 would be costly to Trump. 338 00:19:20.759 --> 00:19:23.799 I assume his pollsters, Trump's posters are telling him the 339 00:19:23.839 --> 00:19:26.599 same thing. They must be seeing the same numbers you're seeing. 340 00:19:27.640 --> 00:19:29.920 Why do you think do you think that Trump, at 341 00:19:29.920 --> 00:19:31.720 some point in the next few days is going to 342 00:19:31.799 --> 00:19:33.799 say I got to call NICKI Haley and I got 343 00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:35.960 to make some appearances with Nicki Haley. 344 00:19:37.240 --> 00:19:40.480 Oh yeah, I absolutely believe that. You know, I just 345 00:19:40.519 --> 00:19:47.440 saw Nicki Haley interviewed and she was campaigning for McCormick 346 00:19:47.799 --> 00:19:50.880 in Pennsylvania, and they were like, are you're going to 347 00:19:50.920 --> 00:19:53.960 be with Trump? And she basically said, I haven't heard 348 00:19:53.960 --> 00:19:55.960 from him since June. I think you heard that. 349 00:19:56.200 --> 00:19:56.680 I heard that. 350 00:19:56.720 --> 00:20:02.039 So how can Trump be that dumb or that's stubborn? If, if, 351 00:20:02.400 --> 00:20:05.039 if that could be what he needs to push himself 352 00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:06.079 over the line. 353 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:07.839 That's that's to me interesting. 354 00:20:08.680 --> 00:20:10.640 Yeah, I mean it's kind of a character flaw. It's 355 00:20:10.680 --> 00:20:13.880 a character flaw. He doesn't he doesn't want anyone taking 356 00:20:13.920 --> 00:20:16.480 credit If he believes he's gonna win, he doesn't want 357 00:20:16.480 --> 00:20:20.079 anybody taking credit for it, especially Nikki Haley. He has 358 00:20:20.119 --> 00:20:23.319 his own VP, and there's a certain pride factor which 359 00:20:23.440 --> 00:20:26.559 could come back and bite him off. Yeah, that's that's 360 00:20:26.599 --> 00:20:29.000 a decision that his campaign has to figure out. They 361 00:20:29.039 --> 00:20:31.039 have to go through the poll. They won't pulling numbers 362 00:20:31.079 --> 00:20:34.480 and figure that out, or it could be costly in 363 00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:36.119 one or two of these swing states. 364 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:37.599 Maybe they're running out of time. 365 00:20:38.680 --> 00:20:42.559 As simple as that, David, let's do this, Let's let's 366 00:20:42.559 --> 00:20:44.680 hold on. We'll get callers on the other side. We'll 367 00:20:44.680 --> 00:20:46.759 be right back. I promise I'll have a quick newscast 368 00:20:46.799 --> 00:20:47.440 to be right back. 369 00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:49.759 We'll go to the callers. My name's Dan Ray. 370 00:20:50.200 --> 00:20:53.880 His is Day Pale Logus, along with Spencer Kimball and 371 00:20:54.200 --> 00:20:57.119 John Zogby. I don't think you can find better pollsters 372 00:20:57.119 --> 00:21:00.160 than these three gentlemen, and I get a sense that 373 00:21:00.319 --> 00:21:04.079 all three of them are seeing this fairly similarly. I 374 00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:06.880 just commend them to you. It's your decision whether you 375 00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:08.319 want to believe him or not. We'll be back on 376 00:21:08.400 --> 00:21:11.039 Nightside six one, seven, two, five, four, ten thirty or 377 00:21:11.079 --> 00:21:13.880 six one, seven, nine three thirty. You can talk to 378 00:21:13.920 --> 00:21:16.880 a polster, one of the best, live right after the news. 379 00:21:19.000 --> 00:21:23.720 It's Night Side with Dan d Boston's news Radio. 380 00:21:24.640 --> 00:21:27.559 Well, ready to go, let's I'm looking folks for questions. 381 00:21:28.200 --> 00:21:31.720 You know, there's no sense of trying to argue with 382 00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:37.279 Dave Pelly Logus, but ask whatever questions you like, because frankly, uh, 383 00:21:37.640 --> 00:21:40.119 he's equipped with a lot of information. 384 00:21:40.640 --> 00:21:40.759 Uh. 385 00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:43.920 It seems to me that this race has gone back 386 00:21:43.960 --> 00:21:47.319 and forth Dave, and a week ago, I think the 387 00:21:47.400 --> 00:21:49.680 numbers would have been a little stronger for Trump. And 388 00:21:49.759 --> 00:21:52.160 maybe he's hitting a little bit of maybe he hit 389 00:21:52.160 --> 00:21:54.960 a plateau, maybe he's he's sliding here. That's the only 390 00:21:55.000 --> 00:21:57.279 thing I can I can figure as I follow the numbers. 391 00:21:57.599 --> 00:21:59.839 You know the numbers better than me. How far off 392 00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:01.160 I on that analysis? 393 00:22:01.880 --> 00:22:05.160 No, not far off at all. I mean I have 394 00:22:05.279 --> 00:22:07.359 the same feeling just looking at the numbers. I think 395 00:22:07.359 --> 00:22:12.880 Trump peaked probably a week or so ago, and either 396 00:22:12.920 --> 00:22:16.799 the pendulum is swinging slowly back to Kamala Harris, or 397 00:22:17.359 --> 00:22:21.039 maybe Trump is plateauing, as you say, and he's kind 398 00:22:21.039 --> 00:22:24.440 of coasting into Tuesday. But no matter what happens, it's 399 00:22:24.480 --> 00:22:28.400 really all about field operation right now, getting your vote 400 00:22:28.440 --> 00:22:32.279 identified and knocking on doors and pulling them out on 401 00:22:32.400 --> 00:22:33.079