Speaker 1: What's up?
Speaker 2: Everybody?
Speaker 1: Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new,
we always start this show by being transparent. Yesterday was
a good day for me overall, three and two day. Overall,
my four percent was the Lions, three percent was South
Florida and NBA. I did go one and two, so
those were three two percent, So overall profitable day for me.
Yesterday be no good to be back with you again here?
How was yesterday for you? How you doing today?
Speaker 2: Doing good? Today? Ski? Big weekend up ahead? Uh? Yesterday
was the third profitable day in a row for me
at two and one, encompassing all sports that the good
were cal State Northridge and College Hoop. Had a team
total there that got over pretty easily. You and I,
we could have parlayed our thoughts on the Thursday night
football game last night because I had Dallas team total
over over twenty four and a half, which got you
know up to thirty. So that was a winner. The
bad was NBA. I got involved in that Philadelphia Golden
State game, and you know how that goes. If finals
ninety nine to ninety eight, there's a good chance I
didn't win.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get you, but that football game, and it
was beautiful. They almost thought they were gonna give it
up at the end, but you know, they did what
they had to do, right, Let's get to it. You know,
a lot of games on the slate, don't necessarily have
enough time to talk about all of them, so we're
gonna talk about, you know, maybe some of the ones
that stand out to us, and we will start at
the top of the car. No shocker that I want
to talk about. The Lakers and the Celtics opened up
minus seven for Boston. I see eight and a half
total open two twenty three and a half, and I
see it as high as two twenty six and a half.
There are two twenty five and a halfs out there
as well. Injury report, and I'm gonna hear refreshed because
I'm pretty sure Lebron got rolled out. It says Lebron doubtful.
I'm pretty sure he's not playing out smart out for Boston.
Nobody's been rolled out yet. It is the second of
a back to back for both of these teams.
Speaker 2: You know, I agree with the market.
Speaker 1: You know this, This total still went up even with
Don and James out. I don't think. I don't really
care about Lebron out there anymore right now. I mean,
the defense does get worse with Lebron out there. But
we've seen the Lakers without Luca, without Lebron a few times.
We've seen him even on the back to backs, without
both of those guys a couple of times, and they're
still able to score. They're now they able to get
the most stops, they're able to score. So I like,
I like the over in this game. That's what I'm
saying when I say I agree with the market here.
You know how you see this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I just isolated it to the
Lakers themselves. I thought one oh nine was a cheap
price for the Lakers team total here. I think yesterday
when we talked about Boston Washington, you had mentioned maybe
I agreed with you that the Boston defense just isn't
a very good defense right now, and now you're gonna
get it on back to back days. Up until last night,
Boston had allowed one thirteen or more in six straight games.
And here I'm only asking the Lakers to get to
one oh nine and we get no Downtich, no Lebron.
But I still don't think that matters the Lakers got
a lot of scoring on that team, and if you're
gonna combine that with a tire defense, that's already a
defense that and again we'll put it into context. We're
going over one oh nine here, and Boston had allowed
that six straight games up until last night against the
sorry Wizards, who could only get one oh one. But
I think the Lakers win or lose in this game.
I think they can get to one ten. So it's
a it was a client release. I bet it myself.
I like that play quite a bit.
Speaker 1: Man, I like it. I think the full get I
think they're gonna give up some points. I think they
can score. I like the full game over in this
one got my wallet open here Robino searching first and
some good numbers. But I know we're pressed for time.
I won't I won't hope to show up too much,
but I like that over. We're gonna get down on
that over for sure. Next game up, let's talk a
little bit about heat and Magic opened up minus five
and a half, still sitting there totally one from two
forty and a half to two forty one and a half.
You have Polo back in the lineup for this Magic team.
Still know Mo Wagner for the Heat Heroes, doubtful. Good
old tar Rolls here not gonna make an appearance. I'll
worry about Polo coming back in the lineup for this
Magic A team. They're playing solid basketball with them off
the court, now, you know, I always worry when you
integrate that high usage player back into the lineup. I
couldn't lay in the spot with the Magic. Yeah, this
is this is a tough one. Maybe I agree with
the total going up. I know Miami wants to play
with pace. I know they can play regardless of Heroes
in or not. They've been doing it all year long.
And Howlo should bring some more points of anything. Maybe
over here, Rob, you know what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there. And and to the point
of Tyler hero being absent. When I look at Miami,
and I've looked at them a lot this season from
a totals perspective, as long as they have one of
those guys, specially it could be and Orlando probably gets
a little bit of edge on the glass here too
against Miami. Almost everybody does because Miami's just small and fast.
But I thought it would get away. I think my
original point was even without Hero, as long as they
have Hero or Powell, I'm good with them scoring points.
They'll have Norman Powell to and I believe so even
if Tyler Hero doesn't play, which it doesn't look like
he will, I still think they'll be able to they'll
push pace. And it's interesting ski. I think for the
first I don't know, first fifteen sixteen games whatever, when
Orlando was playing really really fast and we were wondering
do you really want to continue doing it? And then
as recently as you know, within a week ago, I
read that they still want to play fast. It brings
me to a high paced game here. Orlando's not going
to change that type of philosophy. They want to go.
Miami's going to push pace. They've done it against everybody.
Orlando's not old men in walkers with tennis, but they
can get up and down and score two. Desmond Bain
has been really really good as of late, fitting into
this team. So I think over Miami, the baseline for
Miami totals nowadays is two forty. Anyway, I don't we
don't see too much under two forty when they're involved.
I think they probably get there today. It's a huge
game inside that division too. I think maybe one game
separates the two of them from first place.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a big game in our regard. Mario
says he has slowed down their pace. Casey not a
fan of points in this game. We shall see how
it shakes out. Let's move over to Hornets and Raptors and.
Speaker 2: Not that here.
Speaker 1: Gotta get over to this one. Opened up minus eight
birth Brono, and it's come down. I'll see seven and
a half pretty much everywhere. Total open two thirty three
and a half looks like two twenty eight and a half.
Injuries for Charlotte, LaMelo is probable, called Brenner, Trey Man,
Brandon Miller all questionable, No Colling, Sexton, no Connaton. For Toronto,
Lebagi and RJ. Barrett are out. Jacopertos back in the
lineup after missing yesterday, and we'll see if they rule
anybody else out throughout the day. It is, like I said,
second of a back to back for this Raptors team.
Fifth game and seven nights, all that good stuff. They
did lose to the Hornets last time they played, so
revenge game for them and the Hornets. They have covered
both meetings so far this season, Vino, my past this
win of you first. Actually, I'm curious this this Raptors team,
fifth game and seven nights, No, RJ. Barrett. I mean
that offense they've looked they've looked bad. They've been the
worst offense in the league last five games. Do you
think they should be laying.
Speaker 2: No? In fact, that came like the rested underdog here
a little bit. Ski Toronto's four and one against the
spread last five games, and I guess we should have
seen that they would be due for some sort of regression.
They were so red hot, like thirteen and one straight up,
and they were on a really good point spread run
at that time. And it's cooled off a little bit.
What's interesting is we talked a lot about Yaka Perle
yesterday not being at the rim to defend. Probably not
there again tonight. You know, when Charlotte beat them this season,
Pardle did play, So they've even beaten this team with Purdle. Here,
we're gonna get seven and a half. We're rested. They're not.
They're kind of on the downslide right now. Charlotte's gonna
push pace a little bit here. We know that for
a fact, so I don't know that they can win
the game. Ski. I'm not willing to say go ahead
and bet money line, but I just thought seven and
a half was too much here. You don't want to
bet a team that's not playing well at all and
lay seven and a half on top of that when
they're in a back to back situation. So for me,
all the situational angles favor with Charlotte. And then, like
I say, when I looked it up and saw Purtle
played the first time in Toronto still lost to this team,
I figured maybe the matchup is, you know, just advantageous
for Charlotte here. So I'll take Charlotte plus seven and
a half in that one.
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with you there. Toronto is one in
three ats on back to back so far this season,
and like you said, they're just not playing well enough
for me to expect them to get a separation like this,
especially on the back to back. So Hornets would be
the preferred side for me as well. Let's talk a
little bit of Jazz and Nicks. It's when open minus
fifteen looks like fifteen and a half total has gone up.
Two thirty six and a half was the opener as
high as two forty one and a half, but there
are also two forty and a halfs. You know what
you like, make sure you line shop for Utah. Nurgics
is questionable, kniang is out for New York Shammick, but
og is questionable. Color is questionable as well. You know,
to start this season, Rob, you know, this Utah Jazz
team was nine day homing road all overs, you know,
at home, all unders on the road. I mean that's
changed a little bit lately, and it's just probably you know, yes,
I think they play up tempo their top five and
paced last five games, but the defense has just been terrible,
bottom five defensive verted team in that same span. So
they've gone over in four straight road games because of that.
The Knicks, they're playing a little bit. They're the opposite.
They're playing at the slowest place in the league last
five games, in the top five defensive rated team. Both
teams are top ten offensive rated teams in the last
five games. So what style do you think is going
to prevail here? Is going to be New York at
home with that slow, you know, slow, grinded out defensive
type game, or is going to be more of a
jazz up, tempo less defense game here, Ralphio, Yeah, you know.
Speaker 2: It came down to a choice between the two. Ski,
I really like the Knicks in this game Utah on
the back to back. Yeah, you get to play Brooklyn
last night' score your one twenty three. That's all well
and good New York. Even though they're slow, they do
still score points. Pretty efficient basketball team. The choice game
down to do I want to lay points with New
York fifteen and a half, which I generally don't do,
or do I want to play their team total over
one twenty eight and a half and just fade the
bad defense of Utah. But asking the team nothing you
can't get to one thirty against the Jazz. But that
seemed a little too high for me, so I chose
to lay fifteen and a half this morning with the Knicks,
thinking they could win this game by twenty. Utah has
not has or they have shown us the ability to
lose by this number quite a few times this year.
So when they're good, they're good offensively. When they're not
good offensively, and maybe they run into a tight, tougher
defense here and don't score their points. When they don't
score their points. They're not close in games, So for me,
it's going to be Nick ninety's fifteen and a half.
Wouldn't be mad at anybody playing a Knick team total
full game total for me is a little bit scary
because I just don't know what the Jazz would contribute here.
I mean, if the Knicks get to one thirty, the
Jazz have to get to one eleven. I'm not sure
they do.
Speaker 1: I mean, they've been able to score. This Jazz team,
They've been able to score versus everybody. I want to
get there with the over in this one, Robi, you know, honestly,
the Jazz, Yes, they played the next last game, they
played the Rockets game before that. We're able to come
out with an outright weed as a double digit underdog,
and a lot of what they're doing right is just
sharing the basketball, you know, back to back games, I'm
seeing thirty plus assists. I like to see that as
far as you know, expecting good offense. They've scored what
one seventeen plus Florida last five games? All right? As
the Knicks defense better than the Rockets, I mean, are
they that much better that the Jazz are? Just the
Rockets did hold the Jazz down one time, actually to
one on one. But I don't know, Rob No, I
think I think we get points here. The chat saturated
reminded us that the Knicks are number one against the
spread at home, number thirty on the road. That's why
we have this humungus point spread here. All right, let's
keep going down the list.
Speaker 2: Somebody had Nick's built to ask the other night, and
the comment six saying how good they are at home?
All right?
Speaker 1: Net Bett says he was on Jazz yesterday and they
only won because Nets intentionally tanked the fourth by twenty
two fourth quarter. Boy, I mean, you can call it that,
or you can call it the Nets ran out of
gas on the back to back and the Jazz are
coming off two days rest. I mean that's where that
stuff comes into play. All right, all right, the next game,
and I think the last game in the NBA we'll
probably talk about today. It's gonna be the Mavericks and
the Thunder. This one, Open Minds fifteen hasn't really moved
total open two twenty five and a half. I think
consensus now is two twenty eight and a half to
twenty nine. Maybe injuries. Let's go take a look there,
prok S Mardenstein, Dork Caruso out. Isaiah Joe was downgrade
to questionable for the MAVs. Pj's questionable gaffers questionable, Lively's out.
I like, I like this this game over Rob. You know,
I'm gonna check the numbers, but I feel like the
MAVs have been playing faster. And also I just like
that they actually have competent point guard play. Now, so
let me just glance here. That's far for them, just
to make sure last five, they're actually eleventh in pace,
which is all right, Thunder shixte and pace, but yeah,
they got competent point guard play, and that just makes
the offense ahead of a lot better for this Thunder team.
We know they'll play up tempo. They're usually a good
defensive team. They're missing a lot of that defense tonight.
Dork Crusoe, Hardenstein. I don't like that Joe has been
downgraded because that's one of the shooters for them, But
I think this game will be played up tempo, and
I like over the total here, Ra, how do you
see this one?
Speaker 2: You know, Ski, I would comp it to the game
that okay see played the other night, and I got
involved in with okay see team total against Golden State. Right,
Golden State was missing some pieces. Oklahoma State was missing
that same defensive trio. No Hartenstein, no Dort, no crew.
So and it doesn't really matter offensively to them, but
it doesn't matter defensively because the Warriors without Steph still
scored one hundred and twelve on them the other day,
and okay See put up one twenty fourth Dallas. To me,
I know you said Gafferd's only Gafford is only questionable,
but no Lively potentially no Gafford only ad really means
little rim protection for Dallas in stretches of this game.
Okay See likes to attack the rim. One of the Nembhard's,
the famous Nembhard guard family doing the job now for
Dallas at the point, and they've scored their last four games.
I think I saw one nineteen one. There is enough
to get this one over. And that's half the reason
why you'd like to play over here is that the
number is just appealing. Nine is not a large number
this season for teams to climb over. So to me,
I really did. I compared it to the Golden State
game the other day that Oklahoma City played that game
got to two thirty six. I think Dallas is very
much in the same boat as Golden State is as
far as offense and defense are concerned. With the lineup
Dallas will throw out there, so I can see it
getting to two thirty here, it's Oklahoma Cities. It was
only a two game road swing and then they went home,
so I don't know that we're going to hold that
against them. And they score on everybody anyway, So for me,
i'd be with you here over two twenty nine to
twenty nine and no, not even a half, just playing
two twenty nine. I would play it over.
Speaker 1: We're in agreement on that. And yeah, d Hughes saying
that's not like the maps didn't find the Sparky likes
some plusza points and argue, I just I don't like
to bet against OKAC anymore right now, but they definitely
have found a spark and have been playing well well
enough to cover fifteen and a half points.
Speaker 2: Can deny that, all.
Speaker 1: Right, let's see Rovino. I mean, I don't think we're
gonna get too much. But there's one game actually, no,
that's Monday. We can talk about that on Monday. NFL.
There's not really appealing to me this week. I don't know,
do you think this is a good week? Like, is
it appealing to you at all?
Speaker 2: I found a couple, but I will admit ski that
I didn't dig real deep as of yet. I'll just
go out there and give you the two that I
found that I think I'll end up playing here real quick.
I'm gonna play the Commanders, I think with Jayden Daniels back,
and what the Commanders showed me against the Broncos in
that Monday night game is that they haven't quit on
the season. They're going nowhere. But they played hard against Denver,
forced that game to overtime to they go over the
two point conversion to try to win the game, but
it ends up twenty seven to twenty six. Denver's defense,
for all its accolades, was pretty much sliced up by
Marcus Mariota and that quick passing game of Washington. It
was a really good game plan that they had. Minnesota's
offense is just an entire mess. You see justin Jefferson
slam and his helmet because not any of their three
quarterbacks can get him the ball. I just to me,
they're the opposite of what I saw in Washington Monday night.
Washington still wants to play. They'll get their starting quarterback back.
It makes a difference. Minnesota offensively looks like they're just
done with what's been going on there, So I like
that side. If I pushed down the card a little bit,
I had a check mark next to the Cincinnati Buffalo
over game. But I don't think that would surprise anybody.
I've been fading Cincinnati's defense all season long, and now
with Joe Burrow back and Buffalo having the defensive problems
they've had this year, I think that game just gets
into a little bit of a score fest. Need you
need something in the vicinity of thirty one twenty four
to get yourself there in that game. I think those
two can do it. And then an underdog, maybe you'll
like it, maybe you won't. I'm not so sure, but
I think Houston with more than a field goal against
Kansas City, I kind of like the underdog here. Houston's
defense is so good and Kansas City's offense, as much
as I thought it was going to take off and
be really really good once everybody was healthy, it hasn't
done that. Houston was here last year for the playoff
game and played Casey really tough. Kansas City grinded out
a victory in that game. But I see CJ. Stroud
and the offense getting better each and every week. I
know the pass protection was an absolute horror show early
on for Houston, but it seems like they're making more
plays in the passing game right now. I think they
can stay within a field goal of Kansas City. Casey
just not exactly separating from teams the way I thought
they would be at this point.
Speaker 1: The only other game I mentioned Green Band in Chicago
that stands out to me. Chicago has won five games
in a row and they are plus six and a half.
Speaker 2: In general.
Speaker 1: When I think about those teams, like, I wasn't a
believer in anything Chicago has been doing, and then they
beat the Eagles, and I'm like, are they are Chicago
good or like? I don't know. At this point, Spread
is telling me that I shouldn't believe I was right
to not believe everything I was seeing, and that they're
going to get blown out in this game. So we'll
try to find reasons to back the Packers. I also
want to try to find reasons to fade the bucks.
But like Robino said earlier, I'm a little slow to
get into the NFL this week, so I need to
do some more research on that note, we'll move it
on over or before we do this best bet. Actually,
let's see if we could toss some of this stuff
up here. We do have Weekend Warrior right, so Saturday,
Sunday and Monday night football, College football, NFL all releases
including five percent you can get for forty nine bucks.
If you want to take a look at the hardwood,
you can get a full court all access past three
days of college basketball and NBA for only forty nine bucks.
And if you want to go longer, you can get
five hundred bucks off of one year past comes out
to just one twenty five a month. And if you
were to go get rob you know for a year,
you can come back with a twenty five percent or yeah,
twenty five percent bonus coupon and you can use that
on something for myself. So with that said, you know,
I will also ask you if there's anything else you
like promote, and if you have a best bet for
the show, we'd love to hear it.
Speaker 2: If you don't sow good, I think you got promotions
covered pretty good for the weekend. Ski, So guys, if
you want to take a shot, selection packages up and
available one more time, I will say this NFL. I
believe I'm number two on wager Talk Andy Kappers. It's
been a great NFL season, up over forty units for
the years. So again, wager talk dot com for all
those specials, Skie. I've made three bets, and I have
a choice here to make. Which one I want to
leave is the best bet here? I like them all,
but I'll go right back to the top of the card.
I just thought the Lakers team total was priced too
low at one O nine, considering the way the Boston
defense has been playing, and considering the fact that Boston's
on back to back nights here. So for me, la
I did, this game may turn out to be all
offense on both sides, kind of the way Lakers Toronto was.
I could see that happening again. So give me Lakers
over one O nine as best bet for the show.
Speaker 1: You know what we've done well when we do, you know,
kind of a double up. So I'm gonna you know,
I said I was opening up and opening up my
wallet earlier let's do it two twenty five and a half.
It's the best number I see. I think it's an
offensive game as well. Might not even be the fastest pace,
but I think there's a lot of buckets to be had.
Not so much defense from either side in this game.
Over to twenty five and a half. Lakers and Celtics
will be my best bet for the show and also
rob City's number two in NFL. I am number two
in college basketball so far fifteen and five to start
the year, so we'll try to keep that going. And
I will have a good play for tomorrow. If you know,
you know, maybe more than one good play, but if
you know, you know, all right, you know, I always
appreciate you taking the time to come break these games
down with me. Everybody in the chat, we appreciate you
pulling up hit the light button for us helps us out.
If you want to subscribe so you know when we're live,
that's good too, and just enjoy your weekend. We'll catch
you guys again on Monday.