Speaker 1: Welcome every one to Props and Parlays, your host, Andy Lang,
being joined as always by my fellow PROPS betting.
Speaker 2: Expert Andrew macginnis.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be breaking down the Panthers in the forty
nine ers Andrew.
Speaker 2: Happy Monday. How are you, sir?
Speaker 3: Andy? Good morning to you. Not too bad. Not too bad.
Speaker 4: Off a kind of a tough Sunday owing to two
plays that honestly weren't even close. So it's one of
those times where it's like I didn't really have to
sweat them to two percent losses, but still doing incredibly
well in the NFL market, especially with the props and
looking for a.
Speaker 3: Bounce back night tonight. So talk about the wind and
talk about the losses.
Speaker 4: But yesterday, I mean I stopped watching the game and
checking my phones by halftime. It was you know, I
saw Noah Fan get one catch for nine yards. I'm like, okay,
we have some promise here, and then he just didn't
get looked at the rest of the game. So one
of those days for me. But I kind of liked
this game tonight, So not too bad.
Speaker 3: How was your weekend?
Speaker 2: It was okay.
Speaker 1: Saturday was good and we had a big play on
Sunday and it lost in just really frustrating fashion with
Zach charbonay over his rushing and like I was telling
you before, they Seattle just had the ball twenty two
minutes for the whole game.
Speaker 2: He just couldn't get the opportunities.
Speaker 1: He was averaging five point eight yards of carry, he
just only got six of them. So really frustrating, come
up a little bit short, But back at it tonight.
That's a nice thing in this In this industry, there's
always tomorrow. So we got a lot to go over.
And here's how it works, guys. We're gonna break down
passing yards, receiving, We're gonna break down rushing props anytime touchdown,
and we're gonna build a.
Speaker 2: Same game parlay at the end.
Speaker 1: As always, if you guys could help us out, hit
like button and leaving the comments section, who's.
Speaker 2: The first touchdown score for tonight? Give us a good
one here.
Speaker 1: Let's start with passing yards Andrew coming to you first.
Passing props. Here we at Bryce Young and Brock Purdy.
What do you like for passing props?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Andy, I think I'm gonna take a look at
Bryce Young to the over and you know, I don't
think I've said that too many times in my whole
entire life, if I'm being honest with you, But uh,
I think this might be the night to do. And
you know, a lot of my prop betting lately has
just been exposing the opponent's defense and not as much
betting on what a quarterback is going to do. And
I feel like, looking at this Niners defense, it's it's
not been good. They've been allowing they've been bottom five
and passing yards allowed, you know, especially to receivers. But
looking overall this, this is a spot here where this
number opened up around two oh three, and we saw
two oh four, two oh five, it's gotten up to
two oh eight. Now, this is why it's kind of
missed my card. But when you look at some of
the game script here, expecting them to be down, expecting
them to not really have the opportunity to run the
ball that much. The passing game should be super steady,
and just the quarterbacks that have feasted against this Niners defense,
which is not really something that we're used to seeing.
Speaker 3: Over the past little while.
Speaker 4: Uh, it's just a pure matchup play for me, And
I think that just by how low this number was
when it opened up. There's very little faith in Bryce Young,
and you take a look at his attempts in his
past recent performances. They're trying to manage him. They're trying
to run the ball as much as they can when
he is out there. But this is one of those
matchouts where I think they are going to be able
to expose the secondary, they are going to be able
to get some of their good receivers involved, and this
number is just.
Speaker 3: Far too low.
Speaker 4: So due to the movement and for us doing this
show on Monday, this one did miss my card. But yeah,
Bryce Young over for him. And the funny thing is
Andy is I think I would I always debate like
attempts or completions. I think with this one I would
look towards completions because I still don't think we're going
to see any crazy plays by him by any mean.
It's going to be just more of a steady passing attack.
That's kind of what I'm thinking there. As far as
brock Perty is concerned, I kind of think all the opposite.
I think we are going to see the game be
a little bit more managed. We are going to see
the running game involved a bit more, and surprisingly we
have seen it pretty This Carolina defense has been okay
against the past. So not sure if I'm looking at
him right lighting up the scoreboard by any means, but
I think from just a line value perspective, I think
it's a good day for Bryce Young. We've seen quarterbacks
Andy with some pretty high numbers this season, and then
you see a guy like Bryce Young with a you know,
two oh three, two oh four opening number. Uh, am
I am I falling for a bait? Am I taking
a line here?
Speaker 3: Am I? Am I falling for it? Andy? Or what
do you think?
Speaker 1: Well, if you're falling for it, I'm falling for it
with you. I have Bryce Young over his completions. This
is a forty nine Ers defense. Since Fred Warner went out,
every quarterback has gone over their passing total except Jackson Dart.
Forty nine give up twenty six completions per game. You know,
he's only gone over this number twice this year, but
when he did, he flew over like at thirty five
and thirty one completions. And when you look at Bryce Young,
he's never he's never ended on a total between two
hundred and three hundred yards it's always less than two
hundred or over three hundred, like it's it's feast or
fame and with this guy, but there is a forty
nine ers defense that that's how you attack him is passing.
So I like Bryce Shung. I also like Brock Party
to throw an interception. He's only played in three games
this season, but he has four interceptions. He's had an
interception in five out of the last six. The Panthers,
it's not nothing. They have seven interceptions this season, so
you know, you know, like a team that the Jets,
they're still looking for their first interception on defense. Panthers
team has cost some turnovers, so I wouldn't be surprised
if Rock Party forces it in there and ends up
getting an interception. So yeah, we're lock step Andrew. I
don't mind these Bryce young props at all. This number
just seems drastically too low, Like how many quarterbacks would
there be a number like that?
Speaker 2: Two three, two oh six? Like not many of them?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 4: The points spread too right, like the game script suggests,
It's not like he's going to be the on the
team that's going to be running the ball quite a
bit or not chasing the game like, obviously we can't
always base it on what the line is, but based
on this number here, wouldn't there be some type of
added cushion because there's going to be, you know, two
drives in the fourth quarter that there are minimal rushes
taking place. So and I wanted to ask you, cause
I'm sure our viewers are interested as well, how do
you manage especially here with us doing our show on
Mondays And it's been a lot of fun just breaking
down one game. Obviously, you know we used to go
through a ton together, but the movements, like, how do
you manage Like I said, like I first looked at
this number, it was two three, two four.
Speaker 3: Now with it pop it up on the passing yards
because sometimes.
Speaker 4: Just like other sports and other bets, you could take
it as a good thing, right, like there's some money
coming in, but also you don't want to get the
bad number.
Speaker 3: How do you manage that?
Speaker 4: And also wondering Andy, usually when I'm looking at over
one and a half passing touchdowns, it's a minus price.
Speaker 3: I've had a lot of success with the plus.
Speaker 4: This one here is at plus one twenty for Bryce Younger,
one and a half passing touchdowns is.
Speaker 3: That getting a bit greedy.
Speaker 4: My number says twenty seventh in the league, that's the Niners.
Is it i'mpting at plus one twenty or is it
kind of like, hey, h plus money for a reason
on this number.
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course it's tempting.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just in fathos forty nine ers defense
I plus money. Yeah, sure sounds good. As far as
betting props, it's a different It's a difficult balancing act.
I always tell people you gotta be really careful about
beating the number on props.
Speaker 2: It's the quickest way to get limited.
Speaker 1: So like, there are a lot of times where I
will not put out props early because.
Speaker 2: I know that a line is gonna move, and you know,
you always say, well, ye want to get the best
of the number.
Speaker 1: It's like yeah, and spreads and totals absolutely, But if
you're like me and you play on DraftKings FanDuel bet MGM,
it is the quickest way to get limited. It's not
winning a bunch, it's it's beating the number. You beat
a number consistently, it's you will get limited real quick.
So there are times where I just find, you know,
it's part of my responsibility to not get people limited,
And yeah it sucks. You may miss out on a
couple of yards, but you want to miss out on
a couple of yards or have your sports book turned off,
So you know, I like one quick one yeah, Like
I mean, once you get to the day of the event,
you're you're pretty safe. But I have I've had a
real problem like betting things two days before, Like as
soon as those lines come out, you put it in
and the line moves six eight yards, and then the
next bet they don't let you put too much on,
so you just it's a it's a balancing act. Every
every bet and every props a little bit different. But
I just find I would rather I'd rather wait and
get a safer number, knowing that the books won't, you know,
turn my account on.
Speaker 4: And for us, people are tailing us, people are following
our plays, So it's like, you don't want to be
that clown on Twitter. That's like, congratulations to all my
clients that got a number ten yards different than me,
you know, like, yeah, congrat all of you guys that
bought the play two days later and didn't get a
number even close to the number I got, you know,
and We see that all the time on social media
for sure.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah, yeah. Nothing.
Speaker 1: The worst when you have to take down a play
because nobody can get the number again. So yeah, all right,
let's move tu' receiving props. I'll get us started here.
I get two that I'm interested in, both the forty
nine ers. Christian McCaffrey over forty three and a half
receiving just playing his receiving total this year has been
gold mine for US in for clients, and he did
go under last week, but I'm just coming right back
to it. He had forty three plus in the first
ten games of the season. This has just been an
incredible streak for US. So christ McCaffrey over his receiving
and this is a huge drop. His number was like
over fifty last week. So to get this down to
forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: I'll take it.
Speaker 1: George Kittle over his longest reception it's twenty one and
a half. But when he plays with Brock Purty, he
just goes over. He went over last week with Party
and last year ten out of thirteen games with brock
perty as a quarterback, he went over his longest reception.
So Party we'll throw the ball deep. Perty will throw
the ball to the wrong team, but he will give
his receivers a lot of opportunities to make big plays.
So I'll take advantage of that with Kittle over his
longest reception. What about you, Andrew, what were some receiving
props that you like?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you ended it with a guy that I'm gonna
start it with here, George Kittle for me. Over his number,
it's gotten up there pretty high. It's current number fifty
seven and a half. I did see a fifty six
and a half out there this morning. But again just
attacking opponents weaknesses and right now for this Carolina team,
looking at how they are and receiving yards overall, Andy,
look at this discinc difference thirteenth overall in the league.
Defensively in receiving yards allowed, twenty fifth to tight ends.
I mean, like you said, this is an opportunity here
and with Brob Purdy, with him in that chemistry, I'll
take it. So you get that fifty ish ballpark, I'll
take that. With George Kittle kind of more of a
secondary one. Here is Javier le get over twenty four
and a half. We just know that the secondary and
especially to kind of those slot receivers and those guys
that are going to catch the kind of the shorter passes.
This Niners defense given up a ton of yards to
receivers every single week. And then Rico doubtell I'm gonna
go under seventeen and a half for him. I think
he's going to be simply a running back and not
have to worry about him being too much of a
pass catcher this one. So if you can get that
number now, I think that will go down actually, so
under seventeen and a half. But I'll tell you what
that George Kittle won might be one that we revisit
a little bit later in the show and it feels
even better the fact that we both like it.
Speaker 3: But should be a pretty good one.
Speaker 4: And I'll tell you this could be one of those
games where, like I said, I think that we're gonna
see Bryce Young have a pretty good day, and you
talked about it.
Speaker 3: He either has a great day or has it kind
of a shit day.
Speaker 4: There's not really many in betweens with him, but I
am very curious with that big day, how many of
these monster plays we end up seeing. Though, like it
can still be a good passing day without him going
over his number. So I'm looking at some of these
guys like McMillan or you know, some of the top receivers,
and I kind of want to take the under on
longest reception because it's like, hey, look, you could still
have a good day. Doesn't mean you're going to go
over your longest reception number. And I don't know if
the Panthers really want Bryce Young being unleashed like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Bryce Young and unleashed. Those are two terrifying words.
Speaker 3: Together.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's take a look at rushing prop before you
do that. Teleround what you have up over at wager
talk for.
Speaker 4: Monday, Andy, I'm excited I got a five percent play
tonight NFL player prop. It's been a pretty good run,
as I mentioned, but got us gotta mention it. A
lot of the folks here, we're off an zero and
two day, had to cool off, and you know what,
sometimes we'll take it like this. I'm happy it wasn't
the five percent that we cooled off with. So on
a really good run with the NFL player props and
long term right now, we've got a really good deal.
Posted at wager Talk dot com with yesterday's losses where
it's still about plus thirty units plus thirty two units
long term on a very very solid run. With this
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But guys, it would not make much sense to pay
thirty five bucks for one play when you're gonna get
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Speaker 3: So looking forward to it tonight.
Speaker 4: Guys, if you want to join me up at wager
talk dot com, you can get my five percent big
bet Primetime game. Gotta love it, Andy, Let's hope we
can cash. And speaking of Primetime, you've been good all
season with Primetime. I guess under the lights when we're
looking at our websites, Andy, we got to look towards
Primetime for Andy stats, the big time games.
Speaker 3: What do you have going on tonight.
Speaker 2: That's a twenty and eleven run.
Speaker 1: We hit our zone Thursday again in primetime games.
Speaker 2: We didn't have any plays last night. I'm kind of caught.
I didn't.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know what props I would
have landed on, but didn't like the game, and the
game ended up, you know, sucking. So yeah, it's twenty
and eleven primetime run. I've got a couple of NBA
props as well. I went ahead and attach those, so
you get our Monday Night Football best Bet along with
a couple of NBA props that we can kind of
see our write ups and how we attack the NBA markets.
So one pack, one price, you get three plays. That's
up at wager talk right now, only in eighteen bucks.
So let's continue this big primetime run. Yeah, I don't
know how to describe it, or don't Why why are
we why have we been so good in primetime games?
Speaker 2: I'll just take it. How's that.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest for me, Andy, I'll be completely
honest with you.
Speaker 4: I think for me, the primetime there's just less distractions,
Like it's just one game to narrow in on, and
there's only so much time in the day, Like you
have one game that you're looking at and you get
to look at that for hours and analyze it and
look at all the players and things. And I'm not
saying I'm not doing the work on the other games,
but when you see a sheet of games in front
of you for the one PM slate, it's almost like
so refreshing in my mind. That's why I love doing
this Monday show with you, because you get to kind
of be like, I don't like that guy tonight.
Speaker 3: I like that guy tonight. You can kind of I
don't know. I just feel like it's so much.
Speaker 4: More peaceful that you get to be like, Okay, one game,
one game only.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a lot going through all those Sunday games,
but I love it.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: It's what I love for. So let's talk some rushing props.
I'll get it started here. Why are we just Chuba Hubbard?
What's up at this low number? It's like fifteen and
a half.
Speaker 2: I know doubtles the starter, but he keeps going over this.
Speaker 1: He's gone over and eight out of nine games he
gets four to five carries a game. The forty nine
ers give up four yards per carry. So I just
think this number is too low on chewba Hubbard. So
I'll take that. I'll take his over, but I will
take the under a Rock Purty under ten and a
half rushing yards. He just came back from injurying last
week minus seven yards. I just don't think he's gonna
be taking off running coming back from that injury. We've
seen it with Amark Jackson. Mark Jackson comes back from
injury and he's been flying under his total. So these
quarterbacks that come off injury, I just don't think they're
that excited to run. So Chew Robbard over is rushing
brock Party under his rushing Andrew, what do you think
about rushing props?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think for me, I'm going to look towards
Christian McCaffrey. I'm going to look towards his attempts. It's
kind of going back to old reliable, going back to
the simple play here. I just think it's going to
be very well mixed in. I feel like it's going
to be a very easy and smooth game for brock
Party tonight. Not anything too crazy offensively, not a lot
of passes. Like I said, I do lean towards his
under on completions. I do expect a run heavy game.
As I mentioned, the Panthers have a decent and surprisingly
good secondary and past defense, so I do think the
rush gets mixed in there a little bit. And I
like what you said about Hubbard there for doubt all,
I'm going to take over on his longest rush because
I don't think for him I would look towards his
attempts or his rushing guards, but I think he can
be good to break off for one big one. Other
than that, I'm not really interested in too much of
the running backs here. One Andy, I like a lot
of the receiving props today, so.
Speaker 3: That's really what I've got.
Speaker 4: But you know, it's one of those games where with
Christian McCaffrey, I know it's kind of funny to recommend
live bets and player props, but I think with him
that you got to just wait till the game starts
to separate a little bit. Like I think that he
could be a guy we could jump on, like going
into halftime or something, and then for his usage to
just absolutely jack up in the second half.
Speaker 1: Makes sense, makes sense. We're ready to talk about touchdowns.
I mean minus three eighty DraftKings.
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me? For Christian McCaffer to score a touchdown?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: What are we doing here?
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's let's talk touchdowns speak speed which
but it's four hundred is wild? I will get tet
Ted McMillan, you know, forty nine ers giving up? Yeah,
like you said, twenty seventh passing touchdowns and if you
like Bryce Young to throw a touchdown, I think Ted's
gotta be We're a sprinkle, right, like did you have
to you have to put some kind of pass.
Speaker 2: Catcher for for Carolina?
Speaker 1: So I would look at Tet I want just look
at Juwan Jennings plus one ninety. I think like Ricky
Piersoll's back, but I'm not sure how effective he's going
to be.
Speaker 2: He was kind of worthless last week. Maybe he's a
little bit better.
Speaker 1: But I saw, like Juwan Jennings is receiving totals three
and a half when I was like minus one sixty.
So the books are Tony's probably gonna get some some catches.
So Juwan Jennings almost two to one is pretty good.
And then Tet McMillan plus one forty five, what do
you think about touchdown scores.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just nice to get some plus money going, Andy,
you know, I mean, I know sometimes we talk about
it in our same game parlays, Like we've cashed with
Jalen Hurts, We've cashed with some of these top guys.
But it is nice to try and be able to
find some plus money a little bit. I like the
McMillan one as well. I'm gonna go back to Lagette.
I think you get a pretty good number on him.
Plus three sixty first touchdown score twenty five to one.
That's kind of interesting there. But all and all reality here, Andy,
The only one that I had circle was George Keittle
just based on that tight end matchup, based on kind
of the recent stats that I've seen, and I just
think it's so interesting how the difference in kind of
receiving yards allowed overall versus the tight end yards allowed.
I think it's kind of interesting. I think he will
get those red zone targets, so that's not too bad.
Plus one twenty anytime, and plus seven fifty first touchdown
score for him. You know what I'm looking at it
in this one, Andy, It's I kind of like, I
wonder what you could do for like you know how
like sometimes they would do trying to do in golf,
and I'm trying to collect my thoughts here in golf,
like you're a golf handicapper, like they would do leaderboard
besides this guy.
Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
Speaker 4: Like what if they started doing that for NFL, like
first touchdown score, not this guy, or like Christian m Yeah,
first touchdown score on this team that's not named this guy,
because like you know, there's so many guys that go
on those runs. And I found that so interesting with
golf betting, where it was like, okay, yeah, we all
know this guy is probably gonna come top two or three,
so we're gonna create a whole.
Speaker 3: Betting board that doesn't include this player.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Scotti Scheffler's to that point. It's like winning
without Scottie Scheffler because he's like two to one to
win the tournament. Tiger was the obvious tournament. Yeah yeah, yeah,
Tiger of the field. And you're like, I'm not thinking
the field.
Speaker 2: So all right, let's build a same game parlay. Come on, Andrew,
running out of weeks. We gotta hit one. You gotta
hit one here.
Speaker 1: I'll get us started here Bryce Young fifty plus passing yards.
Talked about the vulnerability of this forty nine yeers defense.
I just think Bryce Young is gonna be in a
good position to throw.
Speaker 2: Quite a bit.
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, best case scenario is they fall behind
by a couple scores and Bryce has got to be
in catch up mode. So I'll go over two hundred
and fifty plus passing yards for Bryce Young for my
first leg.
Speaker 2: What's your first leg?
Speaker 4: Well, I'll actually I'll ask you this for my next leg.
For this first one, I'm gonna go George Kittle fifty
plus receiving yards. You know, I'm high on this matchup.
I'm high on the tight end here in this matchup
against Carolina, and I like George Kittle's chemistry. As you
mentioned earlier with Brock Prarie, I think he'll get the
ball quite a bit. And the good news with him
is we really don't need a ton of targets to
get to fifty. He's someone that can get that in
a couple of catches. So fifty plus receiving yards, George kill.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Chewba Hubbard fifteen plus rushing yards. We
talked about him always gets four to five carries forty
nine ers give up four yards per carry over an
eight out of nine games. I know Downald's gonna get
a majority of the work, but Hubbard.
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 1: I think we almost free Joba Hubbard got hurt. That's
how Dowell got the job. And so you know, Hubbard's
kind of been battling back. So each week he's just
getting a little bit more healthy. So Jaba Hubbard fifteen
plus rushing yards. All right, bring us home. What's our
next leg?
Speaker 4: Okay, so here here here's my question, and feel free
to just give me the absolute no on this Andy.
Feel free because it is a prop show, same game parlay.
It's still a part the word parlay. He is still
in here props and parlays the name of the show. Here,
I want to take Niners first half money line. Oh okay,
I want us to get to the window. I want
us to cash a ticket. Obviously this is a juicy number,
but it's a parlay.
Speaker 3: Here. I want us to.
Speaker 4: Add Niners first half on the money line for my
second length.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, minus two sixty five and that gets us.
Speaker 2: A twelve to one.
Speaker 1: So we got a plus twelve hundred here. So the
legs are Bryce Young two hundred and fifty plus passing yards,
Juba Hubbard fifteen plus rushing yards, George Kittle fifty plus
receiving yards, and San Francisco money line in the first half.
Speaker 2: That's your twelve to one.
Speaker 1: Still looking for our long shot, get our first one
of the season here and we are running out.
Speaker 2: Hey, it's week twelve and we got one.
Speaker 1: That's twelve to one. Let's go come on like the
game when gods are telling.
Speaker 2: Us something with that one. So let's catch. Let's catch
that big one.
Speaker 1: Speak a big win. Tell everyone about your five percent
that's up for tonight, Drew.
Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks a lot, Indyan, Yeah, five percent plate tonight. Guys,
been doing very very well with the NFL props. We
cashed a five percent last Thursday, which was super exciting,
and we have a great package going on right now.
Package available, guys, get all of my player props across
both NHL and NFL in one package. That package is
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We've increased clients bank rolling NFL player props over the
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this is a very good run with the NFL player props,
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There's no point in paying thirty five bucks for this
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props and Andy, I don't know about you, but I'm
ready to start cooking up the NHL player props. It's
kind of like we saw we had to see the
first few months that I kind of was gepping my
toes in. We're still up, but not very much. And
now I'm ready to get going with the NHL. So
people aren't just getting NFL in there to get an
NHL as well. What about you, man, mister Primetime.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Primetime run sits at twenty and eleven in the
NFL this season. No plays for us last night, but
we did our one on Thursday, and we've got one
that is up tonight. Also have attached to NBA Best
Bets to that, so you get a couple bonus props
for free, just forgetting that Monday Night Football best bet.
Speaker 2: So looking to move to twenty one and eleven on
primetime games.
Speaker 1: Still, I don't need an explanation why it works so
well on primetime. It just it's been working. It's been
really really fun and a really really great run.
Speaker 2: So full disclosure.
Speaker 1: Were coming off of a losing day yesterday, we lost
our big bet by three yards on a Zach charmon
a prop, but feeling very confident, looking forward to a
big night tonight in the NBA and Monday Night Football
as well.
Speaker 2: So all right, guys, we're done here. Thank you very
much for watching.
Speaker 1: Like button put in the comments section, a first time
touchdown score, our first touchdown score.
Speaker 2: Maybe it's our first time scoring.
Speaker 3: You never know.
Speaker 1: Give us the same game parlay, give us your best prop.
But thank you so much for watching. Let's have a
big Monday night.
Speaker 2: Good looking on your bets, and we'll see everyone next week.
Take care,