WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.319 --> 00:00:05.000 This week's episode of the Tripcast is supported by Raise 2 00:00:05.040 --> 00:00:16.199 Your Hand Texas and Water Groves. Hello and welcome to 3 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:20.120 the Texas Tribune trip Cast for January tenth, twenty twenty five. 4 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:21.359 We are back. 5 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:25.239 The Tribune trip Cast is back after a short hiatus. 6 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:29.519 Thanks everyone for joining us back. My name is Matthew Watkins, 7 00:00:29.719 --> 00:00:32.520 editor in chief of the Texas Tribune, and I am 8 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:37.039 joined by our two new Trip Cast co hosts, Eleanor Klibanoff. 9 00:00:37.200 --> 00:00:39.119 Hello, Eleanor, Hello, thanks for having. 10 00:00:38.960 --> 00:00:40.039 Me and James Bettergan. 11 00:00:40.520 --> 00:00:41.920 Hello, gat to be back. 12 00:00:42.359 --> 00:00:44.960 Great to have you back, and we are Our guest 13 00:00:45.000 --> 00:00:48.600 today is Jasper Sharer Paulitics, reporter for the Texas Tribune. 14 00:00:48.640 --> 00:00:51.079 Hey, Jasper, Hey, thanks for letting me crash. 15 00:00:51.119 --> 00:00:55.759 Absolutely we are happy to have you. The subject of 16 00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:59.119 this first special edition of the trip Cast is the 17 00:00:59.240 --> 00:01:02.600 legislative set that begins Tuesday. It'll be the beginning of 18 00:01:02.679 --> 00:01:05.519 a one hundred and forty day sprint that will touch 19 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:09.799 the lives of every single Texan in the state. They'll 20 00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:11.959 determine how much to spend on schools, how much our 21 00:01:12.000 --> 00:01:16.640 property taxes are, you know, road construction, little things, you know, 22 00:01:16.719 --> 00:01:22.000 will designate some state flower that pollinates or something. 23 00:01:22.000 --> 00:01:22.799 I don't know. We already have a. 24 00:01:22.799 --> 00:01:24.920 State flower of anything's like that. But but you know, 25 00:01:25.000 --> 00:01:28.200 a major moment in the lives of Texans, whether they 26 00:01:28.200 --> 00:01:30.719 know it or not. And today we are going to 27 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:35.560 preview that that session, talk about the key issues, but 28 00:01:36.079 --> 00:01:38.439 maybe most importantly and what will take up a big 29 00:01:38.480 --> 00:01:41.879 part of our discussion at the beginning is the speaker's race. 30 00:01:42.079 --> 00:01:44.959 Any ledge preview has to start there. And what I'm 31 00:01:44.959 --> 00:01:46.920 going to do here bear with me all three is 32 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:50.000 I'm going to just go through a sort of table 33 00:01:50.079 --> 00:01:52.680 setter of where we are right now. I'm going to 34 00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:54.120 try to do it as fast as I can, but 35 00:01:54.159 --> 00:01:58.480 it's complicated. So here we go. Last year's legislative session 36 00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:01.799 and the special sessions that fall ended with many people 37 00:02:01.959 --> 00:02:05.920 sort of repeating the claim that House Speaker Dade Feelin is, 38 00:02:06.040 --> 00:02:08.879 if not the most then at least one of the 39 00:02:08.879 --> 00:02:12.240 most conservative speakers in Texas history. But there were three 40 00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:16.599 things that happened under his watch that turned many Republicans 41 00:02:16.599 --> 00:02:19.919 against him. The first one he continued the tradition of 42 00:02:19.960 --> 00:02:24.800 selecting Democratic committee chairs. The second one is Attorney General 43 00:02:24.879 --> 00:02:27.879 Ken Paxon was impeached under his watch, later acquitted by 44 00:02:27.919 --> 00:02:31.639 the Senate. The third one is Greg Abbott's Priority voucher 45 00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:36.039 bill failed in the House multiple times under his watch. 46 00:02:36.159 --> 00:02:40.080 Essentially since then there has been intense pressure on the House. 47 00:02:40.080 --> 00:02:43.639 Abbot and Paxxton and their allies targeted multiple Feelin allies 48 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:47.840 in the GOP primaries. Anti Feelin forces sort of rallied 49 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:51.280 around David Cook as a new Speaker candidate, and under 50 00:02:51.280 --> 00:02:55.560 that pressure, Dade Feelin dropped out. Dustin Burrows, a Republican 51 00:02:55.639 --> 00:03:00.599 from the Panhandle Lubbock area, stepped in. It created what 52 00:03:01.080 --> 00:03:03.439 sort of is a two person race, although we'll talk 53 00:03:03.479 --> 00:03:07.120 about whether that actually is true or not, in which 54 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:10.639 really kind of both sides have at various times claimed victory. 55 00:03:10.800 --> 00:03:13.719 Caucus rules say that GOP members must vote for the 56 00:03:13.759 --> 00:03:18.400 caucus endorse candidate. On December seventh, that caucus met, but 57 00:03:18.479 --> 00:03:21.159 Burrough's supporters walked out of the meeting after two rounds 58 00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:23.120 of voting where no one could get to the sixty 59 00:03:23.560 --> 00:03:27.240 percent threshold. The remaining voters then voted forty eight to 60 00:03:27.319 --> 00:03:30.639 fourteen to endorse Cook, earning him the official endorsement of 61 00:03:30.680 --> 00:03:34.520 the Majority Party and the requirement that basically or the 62 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:38.039 expectation that Republicans in the caucus vote for him, but 63 00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:41.159 soon after that, Burroughs on that same day declared that 64 00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:45.479 he had the seventy six votes necessary to become a speaker, 65 00:03:45.719 --> 00:03:49.360 half Democrats, half Republicans. But soon after that some of 66 00:03:49.360 --> 00:03:51.919 the people on Burroughs list said they shouldn't have been 67 00:03:51.919 --> 00:03:56.039 on it, which brought his vote count back under seventy six. 68 00:03:56.439 --> 00:03:59.360 It's been very intense, a lot of pressure on people 69 00:03:59.400 --> 00:04:02.560 to change their votes, particularly the Borough supporters. After that, 70 00:04:03.000 --> 00:04:06.840 we've had Amoro businessman Alex Ferry saying he'd spend twenty 71 00:04:06.879 --> 00:04:09.800 million dollars in the next primary to quote, expand a 72 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:13.199 new majority. We'll talk more about what that means. Paxton 73 00:04:13.360 --> 00:04:16.240 has toured the state in support of Cook. Abbott has 74 00:04:16.240 --> 00:04:19.120 said members should select a speaker quote in accordance with 75 00:04:19.199 --> 00:04:22.600 caucus rules, which many people to take took to mean 76 00:04:22.759 --> 00:04:26.360 a sort of endorsement of Cook and the GOP. The 77 00:04:26.399 --> 00:04:29.439 actual state party has said it'll censure members who vote 78 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:32.680 for the non caucus pick, potentially removing them from the 79 00:04:32.720 --> 00:04:37.759 twenty twenty six primary ballot. Meanwhile, Democrats don't really seem 80 00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:39.720 to all be on the same page, or at least 81 00:04:39.759 --> 00:04:43.439 publicly have not rallied around an individual candidate. This all 82 00:04:43.480 --> 00:04:46.480 sets up Tuesday, the first day of the session, when 83 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:50.639 there will be a vote on the House Speaker. Okay, 84 00:04:50.839 --> 00:04:53.079 and I'll be basically, I think the first time since 85 00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:56.600 the seventies where we'll go into that day not knowing 86 00:04:56.720 --> 00:04:58.920 who the House Speaker is going to be unless something 87 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:01.720 changes between then and now. First of all, Jasper, did 88 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:03.120 I get that right? Did I miss anything? 89 00:05:03.279 --> 00:05:03.480 Yeah? 90 00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:06.759 I think that was a pretty pretty solid summary. I mean, 91 00:05:06.800 --> 00:05:10.040 it's it's it's kind of weird how you mentioned. This 92 00:05:10.120 --> 00:05:13.480 is just sort of unprecedented over the last handful of 93 00:05:13.519 --> 00:05:16.439 decades to go in with so much uncertainty. It's kind 94 00:05:16.439 --> 00:05:20.519 of created this sense of, you know, just sort of inertia, 95 00:05:20.600 --> 00:05:24.040 just a lack of movement. You know, nobody really you know, 96 00:05:24.079 --> 00:05:27.040 the polsy discussions that you might expect to be having, 97 00:05:27.600 --> 00:05:31.040 you know, heading into the session. There's just way more uncertainty, 98 00:05:32.040 --> 00:05:36.040 you know, a week before we're set to kick off, 99 00:05:36.120 --> 00:05:38.680 because nobody knows who's going to be in charge of 100 00:05:39.279 --> 00:05:41.519 you know, one half of this b cameral legislature. 101 00:05:42.000 --> 00:05:44.560 James, give me, like a brief introduction to these two 102 00:05:44.720 --> 00:05:48.439 candidates are what do they represent? Who what's their backgrounds. 103 00:05:48.519 --> 00:05:50.680 Yeah, it's a certain extent, it's not really about the 104 00:05:50.680 --> 00:05:53.120 two candidates. It's about the camps that they're in, which 105 00:05:53.160 --> 00:05:57.360 is that Dustin Burrows is the establishment candidate of the 106 00:05:57.399 --> 00:06:02.639 traditional business minded Republicans, and he argues that he is conservative. 107 00:06:02.680 --> 00:06:06.360 He just doesn't want to do every single thing that 108 00:06:06.439 --> 00:06:08.480 the right wing of the party wants him to do. 109 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:11.079 And I think he would say that, particularly the people 110 00:06:11.079 --> 00:06:13.519 who fund the right wing would want him to do. 111 00:06:14.399 --> 00:06:18.000 David Cook is an unusual pick for this right wing 112 00:06:18.120 --> 00:06:22.839 coalition that's trying to take over the speaker's gavel in 113 00:06:22.920 --> 00:06:26.000 the House because he's kind of a pretty moderate guy. 114 00:06:26.120 --> 00:06:28.600 He's like in the middle of that GOP caucus, so 115 00:06:28.639 --> 00:06:30.519 it's kind of strange that he is the guy that 116 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:32.720 they went with. But people in his camp had said, 117 00:06:32.839 --> 00:06:35.560 it's not really about him, it's not really about his policies. 118 00:06:35.560 --> 00:06:37.920 We kind of disagree with him on some of the policies, 119 00:06:38.079 --> 00:06:43.360 but it's about changing the way the speaker operates, meaning 120 00:06:44.319 --> 00:06:48.240 we want there to be you know, less ticky tacky 121 00:06:48.399 --> 00:06:51.360 points of order or less like more flow with the 122 00:06:51.399 --> 00:06:55.439 parliamentarians and more I would say, looseness on the rules 123 00:06:55.800 --> 00:06:57.279 they might contest that, but that's I. 124 00:06:57.199 --> 00:06:57.920 Think what it is. 125 00:06:59.199 --> 00:07:03.120 They want a commitment from the speaker to prioritize Republican 126 00:07:03.160 --> 00:07:09.000 Party of Texas legislation, and they want no democratic chairs, 127 00:07:09.079 --> 00:07:12.199 which Burrows hasn't committed, but he sort of has because 128 00:07:12.240 --> 00:07:14.279 he says he'll leave it up to the will of 129 00:07:14.279 --> 00:07:19.279 the members, which with an eighty eight Republican majority, it'd 130 00:07:19.319 --> 00:07:22.319 be hard not to see that ban on democratic chairs. 131 00:07:22.360 --> 00:07:25.560 So a lot going on there, but it's basically a 132 00:07:25.560 --> 00:07:28.360 showdown between the right wing of the party and sort 133 00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:33.000 of that traditional business minded Republican faction of the party. 134 00:07:33.399 --> 00:07:37.920 Can that's a question what is a speaker of the House, 135 00:07:37.959 --> 00:07:40.319 Like why does this matter? You know, for like outside 136 00:07:40.319 --> 00:07:43.079 of the sort of the Republican Party has dominated Texas 137 00:07:43.120 --> 00:07:45.600 for a long time. This is all like we're talking 138 00:07:45.600 --> 00:07:50.519 about a small corner of the party fighting against another 139 00:07:50.560 --> 00:07:52.680 small corner of the party. Like what is the impact 140 00:07:52.680 --> 00:07:53.240 for Texans? 141 00:07:53.319 --> 00:07:56.120 Yeah, I think a lot of it is like inside baseball, honestly. 142 00:07:56.279 --> 00:07:58.959 But what the speaker does is he's the traffic cop. 143 00:07:59.040 --> 00:08:02.720 He directs the flow of how the chamber is going 144 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:05.439 to run. He appoints the committees, he appoints the people 145 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:08.680 who lead the committees, which bestows a lot of power 146 00:08:08.720 --> 00:08:11.560 because if a chairman or chairwoman doesn't like your bill, 147 00:08:11.560 --> 00:08:12.079 then they're not. 148 00:08:12.040 --> 00:08:12.839 Going to move it right. 149 00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:17.720 They also appoint the calendar's committee chairperson, who like decides 150 00:08:17.759 --> 00:08:21.160 what gets on the House floor, and they also decide 151 00:08:21.160 --> 00:08:23.560 sort of, you know, what the flow is going to be, 152 00:08:23.720 --> 00:08:26.040 what the pace is going to be of the chamber, 153 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:28.480 which goes into a lot of the dynamics between the 154 00:08:28.519 --> 00:08:31.399 House and the Senate. You know, they theoretically are working 155 00:08:31.399 --> 00:08:34.279 together to pass legislation, but sometimes they are at odds 156 00:08:34.320 --> 00:08:37.039 because you know, there's one hundred and fifty House members, 157 00:08:37.080 --> 00:08:39.240 so they're elected by less people, and then there's thirty 158 00:08:39.279 --> 00:08:41.559 one members in the Senate who are elected by more people, 159 00:08:41.919 --> 00:08:45.159 and so there's like a little bit of a different constituency. 160 00:08:45.639 --> 00:08:48.399 I would also say that in the recent history of 161 00:08:48.440 --> 00:08:52.279 the legislature, there's always been one chamber that has been 162 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:57.399 sort of the like calming, cooling, moderating force on the legislature. 163 00:08:57.639 --> 00:09:01.519 For a while, that was the Senate, particularly under David Dewhurst. 164 00:09:01.840 --> 00:09:04.039 At the time they had the two thirds rule. Basically, 165 00:09:04.080 --> 00:09:06.559 any bill that reached the House of the Senate floor 166 00:09:06.840 --> 00:09:09.000 had to have the approval of two thirds of the chamber. 167 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:12.600 That usually meant some kind of bipartisan support for the 168 00:09:12.600 --> 00:09:16.960 bill to reach the floor, and that you required compromise 169 00:09:17.000 --> 00:09:19.120 in order to get that done. Dan Patrick, when he 170 00:09:19.159 --> 00:09:22.919 was elected Lieutenant governor to preside over the Senate, changed 171 00:09:22.919 --> 00:09:26.879 that rule to three fifths, which then gave Republicans essentially 172 00:09:26.960 --> 00:09:29.639 a super majority and able to kind of exactly it 173 00:09:29.679 --> 00:09:34.279 lowers the threshold. But around that time you had Joe 174 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:37.399 Strauss come into the House, and Joe Strauss was elected 175 00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:40.799 by a coalition of Democrats and more moderate Republicans. He 176 00:09:40.840 --> 00:09:42.519 was a more moderate member and was sort of a 177 00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:45.000 thorn in the side and enemy of that kind of 178 00:09:45.080 --> 00:09:49.440 hardline right side of the party. Speakers since Strauss have 179 00:09:49.519 --> 00:09:53.480 gotten I think more conservative. I don't think anyone would 180 00:09:53.519 --> 00:09:56.200 disagree with that, but to the extent that there has 181 00:09:56.320 --> 00:10:01.679 been things to kind of slow down that a Republican agenda, 182 00:10:01.799 --> 00:10:03.960 it has often been in the House. The school voucher 183 00:10:04.080 --> 00:10:07.399 vote is an example of that. I think one of 184 00:10:07.399 --> 00:10:11.519 the questions heading into this session is will the House 185 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:13.960 continue to be that moderating force? And I think a 186 00:10:14.000 --> 00:10:17.000 lot of the people supporting Cook want it to not 187 00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:20.039 be and sort of want those sort of guardrails taken off, 188 00:10:20.399 --> 00:10:22.480 you know, and they have reason to do that, right. 189 00:10:22.519 --> 00:10:27.279 The body is a very conservative body. The Texas voters 190 00:10:27.559 --> 00:10:30.000 have voted for very conservative candidates, and I think their 191 00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:33.679 argument is that agenda should be pushed through without any 192 00:10:33.720 --> 00:10:35.480 friction because they control that chamber. 193 00:10:35.840 --> 00:10:38.559 Yeah, And I think it's also important to remember that 194 00:10:38.639 --> 00:10:41.799 I completely agree with the characterization of sort of the 195 00:10:42.399 --> 00:10:44.759 two chambers. The House has been the more sort of 196 00:10:44.799 --> 00:10:48.159 moderating body. But you know, even in over the last 197 00:10:48.200 --> 00:10:52.759 couple legislative sessions where we've seen just this array of 198 00:10:52.919 --> 00:10:55.960 conservative laws getting passed, I think, you know, even that 199 00:10:56.440 --> 00:10:59.360 role for the House has started to diminish a little bit. 200 00:10:59.480 --> 00:11:01.679 And it sort of gets to the point that whether 201 00:11:01.759 --> 00:11:05.679 it's Dustin Burrows, David Cook, or someone else, you know, 202 00:11:05.799 --> 00:11:07.440 this is still gonna be It's still gonna be a 203 00:11:07.519 --> 00:11:10.840 very conservative house. There's gonna be a lot of pressure 204 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:14.360 on you know, whether again, whether it's Burrows or whoever, 205 00:11:14.519 --> 00:11:18.039 to you know, enact the priorities of kind of Governor 206 00:11:18.120 --> 00:11:18.720 Dan Patrick. 207 00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:19.559 Uh. 208 00:11:19.679 --> 00:11:22.000 You know, Governor abbott Is has been pushing for a 209 00:11:22.440 --> 00:11:25.480 private school voucher program pretty aggressively for the last couple 210 00:11:25.480 --> 00:11:27.799 of years. So it's you know, it's we're not really 211 00:11:27.840 --> 00:11:30.720 considering a situation where it's like, is the House going 212 00:11:30.799 --> 00:11:34.559 to be, you know, super moderate versus you know, ultra conservative. 213 00:11:34.559 --> 00:11:37.200 I think it's it's regardless of what happens, it's going 214 00:11:37.279 --> 00:11:40.240 to be on the closer to the ultra conservative end. 215 00:11:40.639 --> 00:11:43.159 What what really is up for debate is how much 216 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:47.000 power sharing there's gonna be with with Democrats and and 217 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:49.759 sort of also you're starting to get at this point, Matthew, 218 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:53.320 just the the kind of the influence of the Senate 219 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:57.799 in Dan Patrick over you know, the the way the 220 00:11:57.879 --> 00:12:01.039 House operates. I think there is that is sort of 221 00:12:01.159 --> 00:12:04.159 up for debate. Just's if it's David Cook or someone 222 00:12:04.600 --> 00:12:07.440 from the wing of the party that supports David Cook. 223 00:12:07.600 --> 00:12:10.039 You know, I think the feeling is that Dan Patrick 224 00:12:10.080 --> 00:12:13.159 will have a much easier time getting his way on 225 00:12:13.399 --> 00:12:16.120 and that does mean a lot more conservative legislation. But 226 00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:19.879 there are also things that you know, his for example, 227 00:12:19.919 --> 00:12:24.600 he has voiced his view that he wants to ban 228 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:28.759 THHD in Texas. You know, that doesn't fall neatly along 229 00:12:29.279 --> 00:12:33.559 partisan or even conservative and moderate lines necessarily, So I 230 00:12:33.559 --> 00:12:37.440 think that is. It's sort of the democratic power sharing 231 00:12:37.480 --> 00:12:40.240 and also the independence of the House that's kind of 232 00:12:40.519 --> 00:12:41.279 up for debate right now. 233 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:44.039 Yeah, But like you said, the key word, which is power, right, Like, 234 00:12:44.080 --> 00:12:46.039 that's what this is all about. It's not really about 235 00:12:46.080 --> 00:12:48.919 like who's more conservative who's less conservative, because the reality is, 236 00:12:49.440 --> 00:12:52.519 you know, Lieutenant Governor Patrick sometimes does things that aren't 237 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:59.159 really associated with traditional Republican conservative ideology. I'm thinking back 238 00:12:59.200 --> 00:13:01.000 to when there was a winner freeze and you try 239 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:03.519 to claw back all that money from the energy companies, 240 00:13:03.559 --> 00:13:09.159 Like that doesn't fall neatly into traditional conservative lines of thinking, 241 00:13:09.240 --> 00:13:11.440 and a lot of it, like getting involved in THHC 242 00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:14.759 that also doesn't like really fall in line with conservatives. 243 00:13:14.840 --> 00:13:18.440 There's this sort of new conservative of like we are 244 00:13:18.440 --> 00:13:22.279 the conservatives, and we say who what conservatism is, which 245 00:13:22.279 --> 00:13:24.960 goes up all the way to President Trump to a 246 00:13:25.000 --> 00:13:28.399 certain extent to Governor Abbott. There's no like real rules 247 00:13:28.399 --> 00:13:31.559 of what conservative is. So they say, we are the conservatives, 248 00:13:31.559 --> 00:13:34.159 and if you are not doing what we're doing or 249 00:13:34.159 --> 00:13:36.320 what we want you to do, then you are not 250 00:13:36.360 --> 00:13:39.639 conservative enough. And I think that's what the traditional Republican 251 00:13:39.679 --> 00:13:42.320 faction is arguing about. They're saying, like, we're actually the 252 00:13:42.360 --> 00:13:45.600 real Republicans, we actually have ideology that we've been following 253 00:13:45.639 --> 00:13:48.200 since the eighties, and you guys are just making up 254 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:50.360 new rules. One of the things that you hear a 255 00:13:50.360 --> 00:13:54.600 lot with the Cook supporters is it's not really about feeling. 256 00:13:54.639 --> 00:13:56.879 It's not really about Strauss, it's not really about Burrows. 257 00:13:57.200 --> 00:14:01.480 It's about the members being able to drive the conversation. 258 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:04.159 And literally everybody says that, you know, Dennis Bonden said 259 00:14:04.159 --> 00:14:06.799 that when he came in, Felan said that, and to 260 00:14:06.840 --> 00:14:10.320 a certain extent, Felan let the members drive the conversation. 261 00:14:11.720 --> 00:14:14.639 So it's just interesting to see this. But it's all 262 00:14:14.840 --> 00:14:18.039 really about power. I mean, it's not really about who's 263 00:14:18.080 --> 00:14:19.679 more conservative or less conservative. 264 00:14:19.679 --> 00:14:20.639 It's who has the power. 265 00:14:20.679 --> 00:14:22.879 And if you look, sorry Eleanor, but if you look, 266 00:14:23.120 --> 00:14:25.279 a lot of the people who are backing Cook are 267 00:14:25.320 --> 00:14:28.240 people who don't have a lot of power. I mean, 268 00:14:28.240 --> 00:14:30.879 there's some chairman in there, of course, and they have 269 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:33.559 valid reasons, i'm sure, for supporting Cook, but it's a 270 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:39.360 lot of new either freshmen or sophomore legislators who aren't 271 00:14:39.360 --> 00:14:40.960 going to have the power because of seniority. 272 00:14:41.000 --> 00:14:42.960 If you look at Burrows this it's people. 273 00:14:42.720 --> 00:14:44.679 Who are chairmen who've been there a long time and 274 00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:46.639 who are invested in maintaining that power. 275 00:14:46.840 --> 00:14:49.320 And I think one other way to look at this 276 00:14:49.360 --> 00:14:51.279 and kind of illustrate the point you're making is just 277 00:14:51.320 --> 00:14:56.240 the ideological range of members who are supporting the two candidates. 278 00:14:56.279 --> 00:14:59.720 There are tons of super conservative members who are supporting 279 00:14:59.759 --> 00:15:02.240 bur and there are a bunch of you know, folks 280 00:15:02.240 --> 00:15:04.519 who fall on the more moderate or maybe you know, 281 00:15:04.559 --> 00:15:07.240 sort of establishment side of the party who are who 282 00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:11.519 are supporting David Cook. So it's it's not neatly divided, 283 00:15:12.679 --> 00:15:15.039 you know, down the middle ideologically. 284 00:15:15.440 --> 00:15:16.799 And it seems like this is sort of like an 285 00:15:16.799 --> 00:15:20.600 inevitability of politics. So because like we're talking about like 286 00:15:20.720 --> 00:15:24.279 really splitting hairs of conservatism, right like, there are very few, 287 00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:27.000 like like you said, this is not a question of 288 00:15:27.039 --> 00:15:29.039 are we gonna have a very liberal session or a 289 00:15:29.120 --> 00:15:31.960 very conservative session. And it sort of speaks like you 290 00:15:31.960 --> 00:15:36.080 cannot really have one party in dominant power without eventually 291 00:15:36.120 --> 00:15:39.600 having like schisms within that. So it seems like the 292 00:15:40.240 --> 00:15:43.360 impeachment of at traditional Kin Paxson was like sort of 293 00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:46.279 a watershed moment for that, which is like we're gonna 294 00:15:46.320 --> 00:15:48.960 have two We're have two sides fighting each other. They 295 00:15:49.279 --> 00:15:52.759 agree ideologically on almost everything, but you have to have 296 00:15:52.799 --> 00:15:53.320 a schism. 297 00:15:53.720 --> 00:15:57.200 And of course David Cook voted for the impeachment of 298 00:15:57.279 --> 00:16:00.759 Kim Paxon, even though now Paxson is now out in 299 00:16:00.840 --> 00:16:04.679 this state campaign four Cook, which I think is just 300 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:07.200 pretty fascinating. I mean, I'm I got to say, I'm 301 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:10.200 really struck by and I think James and Jasper the 302 00:16:10.799 --> 00:16:14.519 what you just described about power maybe answers the question 303 00:16:14.600 --> 00:16:16.200 that has been going on in my head, which is 304 00:16:17.039 --> 00:16:22.440 the pressure against these Burrows and previously feeling supporters has 305 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:26.639 been so intense. You know, we just saw a blood 306 00:16:26.639 --> 00:16:29.919 bath in the Republican primary last year where members were 307 00:16:29.960 --> 00:16:32.399 just wiped out. They had so much spinning against them, 308 00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:35.360 even the ones who one felt like there were lies 309 00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:38.279 being told about them in the primary. It's very just 310 00:16:38.399 --> 00:16:41.720 uncomfortable to be in that situation when there's a bunch 311 00:16:41.799 --> 00:16:46.799 of money coming against you. I mean, I think it's 312 00:16:46.840 --> 00:16:49.759 a pretty safe bet at this point unless something happens 313 00:16:49.799 --> 00:16:51.919 between now and Tuesday, that there's going to be an 314 00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:55.519 effort to remove each of those vote members from the ballot. 315 00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:58.919 Like I think we will see that attempt happen. And 316 00:16:59.200 --> 00:17:02.919 I mean, they're really in their political stake up for 317 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:08.759 grabs here putting four sort of splitting of hairs of conservativism. 318 00:17:08.839 --> 00:17:11.160 And maybe the answer is just there's only so many 319 00:17:11.319 --> 00:17:13.680 positions of power in the House, and when you have one, 320 00:17:13.759 --> 00:17:17.000 when you're in with the person who's in control, it's 321 00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:18.240 you want to fight to keep that. 322 00:17:18.880 --> 00:17:21.480 Yeah, I think, I mean, thinking ahead to the twenty 323 00:17:21.519 --> 00:17:24.720 twenty six primaries, I think it will sort of serve 324 00:17:24.720 --> 00:17:28.359 as the ultimate test of you know, how is it possible, 325 00:17:28.799 --> 00:17:31.519 you know, sort of testing the limits of how much 326 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:36.039 you know these kind of typically what has historically been 327 00:17:36.079 --> 00:17:40.279 an internal battle. You know, the House speakers race traditionally 328 00:17:40.359 --> 00:17:43.200 is a member to member thing that you know, that 329 00:17:43.319 --> 00:17:46.519 the public only finds out about after the facts. So 330 00:17:46.680 --> 00:17:49.680 twenty twenty six will really test just the you know, 331 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:53.799 how the public's appetite, the ability of the folks on 332 00:17:54.200 --> 00:17:57.799 the right to you know, make this a central component 333 00:17:57.920 --> 00:18:01.480 of these primary campaigns. And they you know, they've they've 334 00:18:01.519 --> 00:18:04.759 been trying to do this generally for for the past decade, 335 00:18:04.799 --> 00:18:08.200 but it has gotten into such a degree of hair 336 00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:11.920 splitting that they've sort of been fishing for for issues 337 00:18:11.960 --> 00:18:15.119 to you know, include on their on their campaign mailers 338 00:18:15.160 --> 00:18:18.920 and sort of accuse the you know, alleged Rhinos of 339 00:18:18.920 --> 00:18:22.920 of not supporting. So I think it's it's you know, 340 00:18:23.599 --> 00:18:25.680 a lot of this is kind of inside baseball, as 341 00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:28.759 James was saying, And you know, it's I think kind 342 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:31.039 of if if we do get a speaker, Burrows or 343 00:18:31.079 --> 00:18:34.039 somebody who the the right wing of the party is 344 00:18:34.240 --> 00:18:36.839 unhappy with, you know, they're of course going to be 345 00:18:36.839 --> 00:18:40.119 going scorched earth against the you know, the members who 346 00:18:40.119 --> 00:18:42.759 didn't vote the way they want to. But you know, 347 00:18:42.880 --> 00:18:45.279 our our primary voter is going to be receptive to that. 348 00:18:45.319 --> 00:18:45.880 I'm not sure. 349 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:47.359 I do want to get into like whether we think 350 00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:49.400 it's going to be Burrows or Cook, just because I 351 00:18:49.400 --> 00:18:50.640 think that would be fun and I want to put 352 00:18:50.680 --> 00:18:53.319 you guys on the spot. But I but I also, uh, 353 00:18:53.480 --> 00:18:55.039 you know, I pushed back on that twenty twenty sixth 354 00:18:55.079 --> 00:18:57.759 things just because you know, it's so far away. It's 355 00:18:57.759 --> 00:19:00.240 so far away, it's like a year and a half way, 356 00:19:00.599 --> 00:19:03.720 and that's like an eternity in politics, right. And then 357 00:19:03.759 --> 00:19:09.240 also we have this whole session for lawmakers to really 358 00:19:09.240 --> 00:19:11.880 try to pass conservative legislation to go back to their 359 00:19:12.200 --> 00:19:15.319 constituents and say, look, this is actually conservative legislation, Like 360 00:19:15.559 --> 00:19:17.599 it doesn't matter what everybody else says, Like this. 361 00:19:17.519 --> 00:19:18.519 Is what we're passing, right. 362 00:19:18.759 --> 00:19:21.720 And I think the third thing that people are overlooking 363 00:19:21.799 --> 00:19:24.119 is that in the last primary cycle, there was a 364 00:19:24.119 --> 00:19:27.119 couple of things that converge to create that like really 365 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:29.960 crazy storm for a lot of these incumbent Republicans. It's 366 00:19:29.960 --> 00:19:33.200 the things that you talked about Paxston getting impeached that 367 00:19:33.240 --> 00:19:37.200 really catalyzed the right wing of the party. School vouchers 368 00:19:37.240 --> 00:19:40.240 not passing that really catalyzed, and so it was Paxton 369 00:19:40.480 --> 00:19:44.400 and Abbot sniping their own Republican fellows. I don't see 370 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:46.200 that happening because I think we are going to see 371 00:19:46.240 --> 00:19:49.599 school vouchers pass this session. I think the Republicans feel 372 00:19:49.640 --> 00:19:52.240 that pressure and they know that they've got to pass something, 373 00:19:52.480 --> 00:19:55.400 and so I just don't see that same storm coming. 374 00:19:55.839 --> 00:19:58.799 And so if then you take Abbot out of the 375 00:19:58.839 --> 00:20:02.640 equation and potentially and potentially have Abbot backing you as 376 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:06.599 a school about your supporter, that really really changes the equation. 377 00:20:06.960 --> 00:20:09.119 And when Abba gets involved on the side of the 378 00:20:09.160 --> 00:20:12.160 traditional Republicans, it's a completely different game, and I think 379 00:20:12.200 --> 00:20:13.480 that's a calculation they're making. 380 00:20:13.640 --> 00:20:14.759 Yeah, I think that's right. 381 00:20:14.799 --> 00:20:17.720 Okay, well let's do this then, James, you wanted to say, Oh, 382 00:20:17.759 --> 00:20:20.799 that's yea Burrows. I'm not going to ask for a 383 00:20:20.839 --> 00:20:22.880 prediction because I don't I don't know if we need 384 00:20:22.920 --> 00:20:25.680 to make predictions. But let's hear from the three of 385 00:20:25.720 --> 00:20:28.200 y'all on who the who you think the favorite is 386 00:20:28.319 --> 00:20:30.680 right now at eleven twenty four on Friday. 387 00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:33.920 Well, I think just I mean it's got to be Burrows. 388 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.839 Just sort of reading some of the tea leaves lately, 389 00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:38.920 and part of the reason I have twenty twenty six 390 00:20:38.960 --> 00:20:42.119 on my mind is just at some of these campaign 391 00:20:42.200 --> 00:20:44.440 stops that that Ken Paxson has been making over the 392 00:20:44.480 --> 00:20:47.880 last few days, going around to try to pressure, you know, 393 00:20:48.759 --> 00:20:51.599 hold out house members to get behind Cook. You know, 394 00:20:51.640 --> 00:20:54.519 you sort of heard some of the language there has 395 00:20:54.640 --> 00:20:57.680 they you know, has been we think we're going to win, 396 00:20:58.000 --> 00:21:00.319 but if we don't, you know, these these guys are 397 00:21:00.319 --> 00:21:02.920 in trouble in twenty twenty six. So I think, just 398 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:05.119 sort of again trying to read the tea leaves there, 399 00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:07.519 you know, it feels like the groundwork is maybe being 400 00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:10.599 laid a little bit for if things go the way 401 00:21:10.599 --> 00:21:13.880