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Speaker 1: This week's episode of the Tripcast is supported by Raise

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Your Hand Texas and Water Groves. Hello and welcome to

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the Texas Tribune trip Cast for January tenth, twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: We are back.

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Speaker 1: The Tribune trip Cast is back after a short hiatus.

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Thanks everyone for joining us back. My name is Matthew Watkins,

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editor in chief of the Texas Tribune, and I am

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joined by our two new Trip Cast co hosts, Eleanor Klibanoff.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Eleanor, Hello, thanks for having.

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Speaker 2: Me and James Bettergan.

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Speaker 4: Hello, gat to be back.

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Speaker 1: Great to have you back, and we are Our guest

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today is Jasper Sharer Paulitics, reporter for the Texas Tribune.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Jasper, Hey, thanks for letting me crash.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely we are happy to have you. The subject of

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this first special edition of the trip Cast is the

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legislative set that begins Tuesday. It'll be the beginning of

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a one hundred and forty day sprint that will touch

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the lives of every single Texan in the state. They'll

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determine how much to spend on schools, how much our

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property taxes are, you know, road construction, little things, you know,

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will designate some state flower that pollinates or something.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. We already have a.

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Speaker 1: State flower of anything's like that. But but you know,

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a major moment in the lives of Texans, whether they

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know it or not. And today we are going to

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preview that that session, talk about the key issues, but

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maybe most importantly and what will take up a big

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part of our discussion at the beginning is the speaker's race.

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Any ledge preview has to start there. And what I'm

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going to do here bear with me all three is

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I'm going to just go through a sort of table

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setter of where we are right now. I'm going to

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try to do it as fast as I can, but

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it's complicated. So here we go. Last year's legislative session

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and the special sessions that fall ended with many people

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sort of repeating the claim that House Speaker Dade Feelin is,

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if not the most then at least one of the

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most conservative speakers in Texas history. But there were three

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things that happened under his watch that turned many Republicans

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against him. The first one he continued the tradition of

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selecting Democratic committee chairs. The second one is Attorney General

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Ken Paxon was impeached under his watch, later acquitted by

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the Senate. The third one is Greg Abbott's Priority voucher

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bill failed in the House multiple times under his watch.

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Essentially since then there has been intense pressure on the House.

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Abbot and Paxxton and their allies targeted multiple Feelin allies

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in the GOP primaries. Anti Feelin forces sort of rallied

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around David Cook as a new Speaker candidate, and under

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that pressure, Dade Feelin dropped out. Dustin Burrows, a Republican

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from the Panhandle Lubbock area, stepped in. It created what

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sort of is a two person race, although we'll talk

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about whether that actually is true or not, in which

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really kind of both sides have at various times claimed victory.

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Caucus rules say that GOP members must vote for the

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caucus endorse candidate. On December seventh, that caucus met, but

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Burrough's supporters walked out of the meeting after two rounds

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of voting where no one could get to the sixty

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percent threshold. The remaining voters then voted forty eight to

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fourteen to endorse Cook, earning him the official endorsement of

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the Majority Party and the requirement that basically or the

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expectation that Republicans in the caucus vote for him, but

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soon after that, Burroughs on that same day declared that

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he had the seventy six votes necessary to become a speaker,

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half Democrats, half Republicans. But soon after that some of

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the people on Burroughs list said they shouldn't have been

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on it, which brought his vote count back under seventy six.

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It's been very intense, a lot of pressure on people

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to change their votes, particularly the Borough supporters. After that,

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we've had Amoro businessman Alex Ferry saying he'd spend twenty

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million dollars in the next primary to quote, expand a

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new majority. We'll talk more about what that means. Paxton

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has toured the state in support of Cook. Abbott has

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said members should select a speaker quote in accordance with

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caucus rules, which many people to take took to mean

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a sort of endorsement of Cook and the GOP. The

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actual state party has said it'll censure members who vote

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for the non caucus pick, potentially removing them from the

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twenty twenty six primary ballot. Meanwhile, Democrats don't really seem

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to all be on the same page, or at least

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publicly have not rallied around an individual candidate. This all

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sets up Tuesday, the first day of the session, when

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there will be a vote on the House Speaker. Okay,

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and I'll be basically, I think the first time since

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the seventies where we'll go into that day not knowing

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who the House Speaker is going to be unless something

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changes between then and now. First of all, Jasper, did

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I get that right? Did I miss anything?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I think that was a pretty pretty solid summary. I mean,

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it's it's it's kind of weird how you mentioned. This

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is just sort of unprecedented over the last handful of

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decades to go in with so much uncertainty. It's kind

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of created this sense of, you know, just sort of inertia,

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just a lack of movement. You know, nobody really you know,

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the polsy discussions that you might expect to be having,

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you know, heading into the session. There's just way more uncertainty,

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you know, a week before we're set to kick off,

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because nobody knows who's going to be in charge of

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you know, one half of this b cameral legislature.

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Speaker 1: James, give me, like a brief introduction to these two

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candidates are what do they represent? Who what's their backgrounds.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a certain extent, it's not really about the

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two candidates. It's about the camps that they're in, which

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is that Dustin Burrows is the establishment candidate of the

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traditional business minded Republicans, and he argues that he is conservative.

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He just doesn't want to do every single thing that

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the right wing of the party wants him to do.

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And I think he would say that, particularly the people

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who fund the right wing would want him to do.

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David Cook is an unusual pick for this right wing

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coalition that's trying to take over the speaker's gavel in

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the House because he's kind of a pretty moderate guy.

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He's like in the middle of that GOP caucus, so

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it's kind of strange that he is the guy that

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they went with. But people in his camp had said,

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it's not really about him, it's not really about his policies.

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We kind of disagree with him on some of the policies,

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but it's about changing the way the speaker operates, meaning

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we want there to be you know, less ticky tacky

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points of order or less like more flow with the

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parliamentarians and more I would say, looseness on the rules

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they might contest that, but that's I.

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Speaker 4: Think what it is.

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Speaker 6: They want a commitment from the speaker to prioritize Republican

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Party of Texas legislation, and they want no democratic chairs,

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which Burrows hasn't committed, but he sort of has because

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he says he'll leave it up to the will of

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the members, which with an eighty eight Republican majority, it'd

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be hard not to see that ban on democratic chairs.

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So a lot going on there, but it's basically a

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showdown between the right wing of the party and sort

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of that traditional business minded Republican faction of the party.

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Speaker 3: Can that's a question what is a speaker of the House,

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Like why does this matter? You know, for like outside

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of the sort of the Republican Party has dominated Texas

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for a long time. This is all like we're talking

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about a small corner of the party fighting against another

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small corner of the party. Like what is the impact

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for Texans?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think a lot of it is like inside baseball, honestly.

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But what the speaker does is he's the traffic cop.

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He directs the flow of how the chamber is going

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to run. He appoints the committees, he appoints the people

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who lead the committees, which bestows a lot of power

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because if a chairman or chairwoman doesn't like your bill,

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then they're not.

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Speaker 4: Going to move it right.

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Speaker 6: They also appoint the calendar's committee chairperson, who like decides

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what gets on the House floor, and they also decide

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sort of, you know, what the flow is going to be,

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what the pace is going to be of the chamber,

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which goes into a lot of the dynamics between the

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House and the Senate. You know, they theoretically are working

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together to pass legislation, but sometimes they are at odds

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because you know, there's one hundred and fifty House members,

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so they're elected by less people, and then there's thirty

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one members in the Senate who are elected by more people,

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and so there's like a little bit of a different constituency.

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Speaker 1: I would also say that in the recent history of

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the legislature, there's always been one chamber that has been

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sort of the like calming, cooling, moderating force on the legislature.

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For a while, that was the Senate, particularly under David Dewhurst.

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At the time they had the two thirds rule. Basically,

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any bill that reached the House of the Senate floor

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had to have the approval of two thirds of the chamber.

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That usually meant some kind of bipartisan support for the

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bill to reach the floor, and that you required compromise

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in order to get that done. Dan Patrick, when he

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was elected Lieutenant governor to preside over the Senate, changed

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that rule to three fifths, which then gave Republicans essentially

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a super majority and able to kind of exactly it

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lowers the threshold. But around that time you had Joe

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Strauss come into the House, and Joe Strauss was elected

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by a coalition of Democrats and more moderate Republicans. He

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was a more moderate member and was sort of a

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thorn in the side and enemy of that kind of

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hardline right side of the party. Speakers since Strauss have

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gotten I think more conservative. I don't think anyone would

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disagree with that, but to the extent that there has

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been things to kind of slow down that a Republican agenda,

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it has often been in the House. The school voucher

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vote is an example of that. I think one of

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the questions heading into this session is will the House

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continue to be that moderating force? And I think a

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lot of the people supporting Cook want it to not

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be and sort of want those sort of guardrails taken off,

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you know, and they have reason to do that, right.

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The body is a very conservative body. The Texas voters

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have voted for very conservative candidates, and I think their

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argument is that agenda should be pushed through without any

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friction because they control that chamber.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think it's also important to remember that

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I completely agree with the characterization of sort of the

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two chambers. The House has been the more sort of

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moderating body. But you know, even in over the last

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couple legislative sessions where we've seen just this array of

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conservative laws getting passed, I think, you know, even that

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role for the House has started to diminish a little bit.

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And it sort of gets to the point that whether

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it's Dustin Burrows, David Cook, or someone else, you know,

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this is still gonna be It's still gonna be a

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very conservative house. There's gonna be a lot of pressure

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on you know, whether again, whether it's Burrows or whoever,

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to you know, enact the priorities of kind of Governor

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Dan Patrick.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 5: You know, Governor abbott Is has been pushing for a

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private school voucher program pretty aggressively for the last couple

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of years. So it's you know, it's we're not really

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considering a situation where it's like, is the House going

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to be, you know, super moderate versus you know, ultra conservative.

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I think it's it's regardless of what happens, it's going

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to be on the closer to the ultra conservative end.

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What what really is up for debate is how much

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power sharing there's gonna be with with Democrats and and

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sort of also you're starting to get at this point, Matthew,

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just the the kind of the influence of the Senate

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in Dan Patrick over you know, the the way the

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House operates. I think there is that is sort of

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up for debate. Just's if it's David Cook or someone

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from the wing of the party that supports David Cook.

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You know, I think the feeling is that Dan Patrick

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will have a much easier time getting his way on

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and that does mean a lot more conservative legislation. But

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there are also things that you know, his for example,

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he has voiced his view that he wants to ban

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THHD in Texas. You know, that doesn't fall neatly along

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partisan or even conservative and moderate lines necessarily, So I

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think that is. It's sort of the democratic power sharing

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and also the independence of the House that's kind of

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up for debate right now.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, But like you said, the key word, which is power, right, Like,

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that's what this is all about. It's not really about

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like who's more conservative who's less conservative, because the reality is,

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you know, Lieutenant Governor Patrick sometimes does things that aren't

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really associated with traditional Republican conservative ideology. I'm thinking back

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to when there was a winner freeze and you try

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to claw back all that money from the energy companies,

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Like that doesn't fall neatly into traditional conservative lines of thinking,

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and a lot of it, like getting involved in THHC

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that also doesn't like really fall in line with conservatives.

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There's this sort of new conservative of like we are

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the conservatives, and we say who what conservatism is, which

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goes up all the way to President Trump to a

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certain extent to Governor Abbott. There's no like real rules

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of what conservative is. So they say, we are the conservatives,

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and if you are not doing what we're doing or

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what we want you to do, then you are not

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conservative enough. And I think that's what the traditional Republican

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faction is arguing about. They're saying, like, we're actually the

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real Republicans, we actually have ideology that we've been following

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since the eighties, and you guys are just making up

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new rules. One of the things that you hear a

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lot with the Cook supporters is it's not really about feeling.

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It's not really about Strauss, it's not really about Burrows.

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It's about the members being able to drive the conversation.

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And literally everybody says that, you know, Dennis Bonden said

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that when he came in, Felan said that, and to

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a certain extent, Felan let the members drive the conversation.

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So it's just interesting to see this. But it's all

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really about power. I mean, it's not really about who's

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more conservative or less conservative.

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Speaker 4: It's who has the power.

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Speaker 6: And if you look, sorry Eleanor, but if you look,

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a lot of the people who are backing Cook are

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people who don't have a lot of power. I mean,

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there's some chairman in there, of course, and they have

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valid reasons, i'm sure, for supporting Cook, but it's a

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lot of new either freshmen or sophomore legislators who aren't

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going to have the power because of seniority.

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Speaker 4: If you look at Burrows this it's people.

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Speaker 6: Who are chairmen who've been there a long time and

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who are invested in maintaining that power.

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Speaker 5: And I think one other way to look at this

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and kind of illustrate the point you're making is just

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the ideological range of members who are supporting the two candidates.

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There are tons of super conservative members who are supporting

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bur and there are a bunch of you know, folks

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who fall on the more moderate or maybe you know,

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sort of establishment side of the party who are who

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are supporting David Cook. So it's it's not neatly divided,

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you know, down the middle ideologically.

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Speaker 3: And it seems like this is sort of like an

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inevitability of politics. So because like we're talking about like

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really splitting hairs of conservatism, right like, there are very few,

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like like you said, this is not a question of

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are we gonna have a very liberal session or a

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very conservative session. And it sort of speaks like you

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cannot really have one party in dominant power without eventually

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having like schisms within that. So it seems like the

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impeachment of at traditional Kin Paxson was like sort of

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a watershed moment for that, which is like we're gonna

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have two We're have two sides fighting each other. They

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agree ideologically on almost everything, but you have to have

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a schism.

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Speaker 1: And of course David Cook voted for the impeachment of

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Kim Paxon, even though now Paxson is now out in

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this state campaign four Cook, which I think is just

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pretty fascinating. I mean, I'm I got to say, I'm

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really struck by and I think James and Jasper the

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what you just described about power maybe answers the question

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that has been going on in my head, which is

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the pressure against these Burrows and previously feeling supporters has

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been so intense. You know, we just saw a blood

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bath in the Republican primary last year where members were

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just wiped out. They had so much spinning against them,

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even the ones who one felt like there were lies

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being told about them in the primary. It's very just

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uncomfortable to be in that situation when there's a bunch

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of money coming against you. I mean, I think it's

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a pretty safe bet at this point unless something happens

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between now and Tuesday, that there's going to be an

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effort to remove each of those vote members from the ballot.

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Like I think we will see that attempt happen. And

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I mean, they're really in their political stake up for

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grabs here putting four sort of splitting of hairs of conservativism.

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And maybe the answer is just there's only so many

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positions of power in the House, and when you have one,

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when you're in with the person who's in control, it's

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you want to fight to keep that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think, I mean, thinking ahead to the twenty

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twenty six primaries, I think it will sort of serve

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as the ultimate test of you know, how is it possible,

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you know, sort of testing the limits of how much

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you know these kind of typically what has historically been

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an internal battle. You know, the House speakers race traditionally

328
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is a member to member thing that you know, that

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the public only finds out about after the facts. So

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twenty twenty six will really test just the you know,

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how the public's appetite, the ability of the folks on

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the right to you know, make this a central component

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of these primary campaigns. And they you know, they've they've

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been trying to do this generally for for the past decade,

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but it has gotten into such a degree of hair

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splitting that they've sort of been fishing for for issues

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to you know, include on their on their campaign mailers

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and sort of accuse the you know, alleged Rhinos of

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of not supporting. So I think it's it's you know,

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a lot of this is kind of inside baseball, as

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James was saying, And you know, it's I think kind

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of if if we do get a speaker, Burrows or

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somebody who the the right wing of the party is

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unhappy with, you know, they're of course going to be

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going scorched earth against the you know, the members who

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didn't vote the way they want to. But you know,

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our our primary voter is going to be receptive to that.

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I'm not sure.

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Speaker 6: I do want to get into like whether we think

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it's going to be Burrows or Cook, just because I

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think that would be fun and I want to put

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you guys on the spot. But I but I also, uh,

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you know, I pushed back on that twenty twenty sixth

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things just because you know, it's so far away. It's

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so far away, it's like a year and a half way,

356
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and that's like an eternity in politics, right. And then

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also we have this whole session for lawmakers to really

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try to pass conservative legislation to go back to their

359
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constituents and say, look, this is actually conservative legislation, Like

360
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it doesn't matter what everybody else says, Like this.

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Speaker 4: Is what we're passing, right.

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Speaker 6: And I think the third thing that people are overlooking

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is that in the last primary cycle, there was a

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couple of things that converge to create that like really

365
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crazy storm for a lot of these incumbent Republicans. It's

366
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the things that you talked about Paxston getting impeached that

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really catalyzed the right wing of the party. School vouchers

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not passing that really catalyzed, and so it was Paxton

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and Abbot sniping their own Republican fellows. I don't see

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that happening because I think we are going to see

371
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school vouchers pass this session. I think the Republicans feel

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that pressure and they know that they've got to pass something,

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and so I just don't see that same storm coming.

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And so if then you take Abbot out of the

375
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equation and potentially and potentially have Abbot backing you as

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a school about your supporter, that really really changes the equation.

377
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And when Abba gets involved on the side of the

378
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,160
traditional Republicans, it's a completely different game, and I think

379
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that's a calculation they're making.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well let's do this then, James, you wanted to say, Oh,

382
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that's yea Burrows. I'm not going to ask for a

383
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prediction because I don't I don't know if we need

384
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to make predictions. But let's hear from the three of

385
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,200
y'all on who the who you think the favorite is

386
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right now at eleven twenty four on Friday.

387
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Speaker 5: Well, I think just I mean it's got to be Burrows.

388
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Just sort of reading some of the tea leaves lately,

389
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and part of the reason I have twenty twenty six

390
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on my mind is just at some of these campaign

391
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stops that that Ken Paxson has been making over the

392
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last few days, going around to try to pressure, you know,

393
00:20:48,759 --> 00:20:51,599
hold out house members to get behind Cook. You know,

394
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,519
you sort of heard some of the language there has

395
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they you know, has been we think we're going to win,

396
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but if we don't, you know, these these guys are

397
00:21:00,319 --> 00:21:02,920
in trouble in twenty twenty six. So I think, just

398
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,119
sort of again trying to read the tea leaves there,

399
00:21:05,279 --> 00:21:07,519
you know, it feels like the groundwork is maybe being

400
00:21:07,599 --> 00:21:10,599
laid a little bit for if things go the way

401
00:21:10,599 --> 00:21:13,880
of Dustin Burroughs on Tuesday, I think also just looking

402
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:18,400
at the coalition that Burrow's put together in his initial list,

403
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,240
you know, he has lost some members from that list.

404
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,680
You know, we haven't seen a public you know, list

405
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of supporters from him over the last month or so.

406
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But I do think just looking at the sheer math

407
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of it, you know, David Cook is trying to get

408
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,759
to seventy six votes through a route that doesn't really

409
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give Democrats a lot of obvious reasons to support him.

410
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,759
You know, his whole kind of platform is predicated on

411
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eliminating power sharing, you know, all sorts of changes that

412
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if I'm if I'm a Democratic lawmaker, I'm probably going

413
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to be looking elsewhere first. And so Burrows just has

414
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a much easier path to go compared to David.

415
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Speaker 2: Cook at this point.

416
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Speaker 6: James, Okay, well, Jasper stole all my lines, So no,

417
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:06,880
I would say I would agree with that. I mean,

418
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,279
I think I've shared this with you guys. I think

419
00:22:09,319 --> 00:22:12,119
that Burrows is in pole position just because, like if

420
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,480
you just look at the lists, he's got the highest number.

421
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I mean, it's not seventy six. We know that for sure,

422
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but it's still higher than the fifty six.

423
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Speaker 4: Fifty seven.

424
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Speaker 6: Then we saw David Cook put out at his highest.

425
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His watermark is fifty six. Even Burrows after losing the

426
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,960
seven people he lost, is still higher than fifty six, right,

427
00:22:30,279 --> 00:22:33,519
And so I think the other thing too is we

428
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,119
have to talk about the role of Democrats, right and

429
00:22:36,279 --> 00:22:39,400
the role of like these squishy Republicans who maybe are

430
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,839
on both lists, who are trying to figure out if

431
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they want to be in power, who's the guy that's

432
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going or gal who's going to get them to be

433
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in power? And you're on if you feel like you're

434
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on sinking ships, like neither one of them is going

435
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to get to seventy six, which some of these folks

436
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do feel like. We've seen the letters from Gary Gates.

437
00:23:00,319 --> 00:23:02,920
They're looking for a third option, and they've been looking

438
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,599
for a third option for a while. And there's that

439
00:23:05,799 --> 00:23:09,480
uncommitted group of Democrats who are neither Cook nor Burroughs,

440
00:23:09,599 --> 00:23:11,799
and they're trying to figure out, can we build a coalition,

441
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can we pull from these other coalitions to build our

442
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,400
own coalition so that we are in power. I think

443
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that's still an interesting thing to look at. But like

444
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I said, I think it's Boroughs third candidate and then Cook.

445
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But I do think that the ironic thing in all

446
00:23:26,079 --> 00:23:29,079
of this is that these two guys who are fighting

447
00:23:29,079 --> 00:23:34,079
to be the more conservative Republican, the conservative choice for speaker,

448
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,680
are going to have to rely on Democratic votes and

449
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,359
it's going to be interesting to see like how exactly

450
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,559
they go about getting those.

451
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Speaker 2: Owner Are you going to be a contrarian?

452
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Speaker 3: Sure, I will, I'll make the case for you know.

453
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I mean, I think the main thing is, like we is,

454
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we've got a lot of people who are on both

455
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sides of this that are sort of just trying to

456
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predict accurately where the power goes. So I do think

457
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there is a chance that this, you know, a sort

458
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of the fear campaign that's being lodged against some these

459
00:24:00,279 --> 00:24:03,599
members takes hold. You just need, like the numbers are

460
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,279
so small that you really do just need like a

461
00:24:05,319 --> 00:24:08,039
few people to move in either direction. I do think

462
00:24:08,079 --> 00:24:10,839
it's also possible that we have, you know, a third candidate,

463
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that someone else emerges, that this all like becomes sort

464
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of all this like back and forth becomes irrelevant. But

465
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I kind of think, and I guess it's a question

466
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,880
for you guys. But like, regardless, the fact that they

467
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,559
sort of I mean, it's reminiscent of the House Speaker

468
00:24:24,599 --> 00:24:27,400
vote in Congress. Like the fact that they can't agree

469
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,680
on this first question does sort of set up a

470
00:24:31,759 --> 00:24:35,480
potentially very painful, drawn out session.

471
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Speaker 6: And I'm curious, like how long that first day is

472
00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:39,559
gonna go. The other thing we have to say is

473
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,599
that there is officially a third candidate, which is Anna

474
00:24:41,599 --> 00:24:44,200
Maria Ramos, who hasn't dropped out, and she's got her vote,

475
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and then as of this morning, she has Ray Lopez.

476
00:24:46,519 --> 00:24:48,720
So that's two votes for Anna Maria Ramos, have to

477
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,599
say it, but there's other Republicans still kind of floating

478
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,000
about in there. But yeah, I'm curious, like how long

479
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,319
this thing is going to go, if we're going to

480
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,599
have like multiple votes, or if it's going to wrap

481
00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,920
up pretty easily.

482
00:25:00,079 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 4: And also, just like the session at large.

483
00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 5: I do think the point about the Democrats though, is

484
00:25:05,599 --> 00:25:09,119
that could be maybe the it might be the leading

485
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,039
contender as sort of the factor that could upend Dustin

486
00:25:13,039 --> 00:25:17,359
Burrows's chances. If the Democrats, you know, just come out

487
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,200
Tuesday totally fractured, you've got the the you know, I

488
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,680
don't know the exact number of folks who are you know,

489
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,720
planning to go to the to the mat, go to

490
00:25:25,759 --> 00:25:28,960
the floor casting their vote for for Anna Maria Ramos,

491
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,359
even knowing that she doesn't have the math to win.

492
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:36,720
There's also sort of another faction of House Democrats, you know,

493
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,359
apparently led by Sinfronia Thompson, one of the longest serving

494
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,319
members in the House, who who has been through a

495
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,440
whole lot of speaker races in her time, so, you know,

496
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,240
assuming she knows what she's doing, she's also kind of

497
00:25:48,279 --> 00:25:52,240
leading the Burroughs like sort of the holdout members who

498
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,680
are keeping their powder dry. And then, you know, the

499
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,480
biggest faction of Democrats as of now at least are

500
00:25:57,519 --> 00:26:01,079
the ones who are publicly supporting Burroughs. You know, there

501
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,200
might be some crossover between the Sinfernia Thompson Onno Maria

502
00:26:04,279 --> 00:26:06,839
Ramos Camp's not sure, but it's you know, if.

503
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 4: If that's the same camp.

504
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, but if it's you know that that if it's

505
00:26:11,599 --> 00:26:15,240
evenly divided or even there's you know, uh, you know,

506
00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:17,559
I'm not sure exactly how the math works out, but

507
00:26:17,599 --> 00:26:20,640
just enough Democrats who aren't willing to support Burrows, and

508
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,920
you know, the pressure campaign against the Republican members causes

509
00:26:25,079 --> 00:26:28,200
enough to hold out that could sink him, and then

510
00:26:28,279 --> 00:26:30,559
you know, the Borough's supporters have to look to someone else.

511
00:26:30,799 --> 00:26:32,519
Speaker 1: There's one other thing I just want to bring up,

512
00:26:32,559 --> 00:26:36,599
which I was sort of skeptical of the Borough's path

513
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,720
because of the pressure.

514
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 6: But I will say, and because a lot of Democrats

515
00:26:40,279 --> 00:26:42,079
hate him, like there's a lot of animals.

516
00:26:42,039 --> 00:26:44,319
Speaker 4: Not really like ally meaningful allies.

517
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,839
Speaker 1: Yet I will say, you know, I mentioned the Alex

518
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:51,359
Fairley money earlier here, twenty million dollars that he said.

519
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,319
He's he's a Marilla businessman. He's sort of a new

520
00:26:54,519 --> 00:26:58,559
player in the like Megadna worlds of Texas, particularly kind

521
00:26:58,559 --> 00:27:01,200
of perceived on that like hard line right. He put

522
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:02,640
out that he was going to spend twenty million in

523
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,759
the next primary to quote expand and you know a

524
00:27:05,839 --> 00:27:07,480
real conservative majority.

525
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: I think I'll speak for myself.

526
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,599
Speaker 1: I saw that as a sort of implicit threat against

527
00:27:13,599 --> 00:27:16,160
people voting for Burroughs. He put out a statement like

528
00:27:16,279 --> 00:27:20,319
right before we came in to record this where it

529
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,160
seemed like the tone had shifted a little bit. He

530
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,039
said the speaker should be elected with a majority of

531
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:32,880
Republicans supporting him or her, which right, and did not

532
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,720
mention the caucus endorsement at all. And he said the

533
00:27:35,759 --> 00:27:40,160
fund will not primary members based solely on their speaker vote.

534
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:44,319
Speaker 6: And that felt a little different from what the Republican

535
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:45,240
Party of Texas.

536
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: Is exactly, And that felt a little bit almost like

537
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,079
like someone people can read that and view that as

538
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:56,519
permission to vote for Burroughs or a third candidate in

539
00:27:56,559 --> 00:27:59,119
this way. And I think that's meaningful because twenty million

540
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:00,839
dollars is a lot of money. That's more than Abbot

541
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,480
was spinning in the past primary. And if you feel

542
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,759
like that money is not going to be used against you,

543
00:28:07,319 --> 00:28:08,920
that might make you feel a little bit more.

544
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 4: Comfortab It's a notable tone change.

545
00:28:10,519 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I'd put that in the category of the

546
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,640
tea leaves that make me think Burrows is maybe the

547
00:28:15,279 --> 00:28:16,440
favorite as of right now.

548
00:28:16,519 --> 00:28:19,279
Speaker 6: Yea, all right, let's pause a disclosure that this is

549
00:28:19,279 --> 00:28:21,119
all pre recorded on Friday.

550
00:28:20,839 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: Right right, exactly.

551
00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:26,319
Speaker 1: Speaking of disclosures, let's pause and hear from our sponsors

552
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553
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559
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and generations to come more at Watergrows dot org. All right,

560
00:28:58,759 --> 00:29:02,599
let's talk about some Paul here. Vouchers is the big

561
00:29:02,599 --> 00:29:07,680
ticket item. We talked about the primaries. Many of those

562
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:12,279
primary defeats of Republicans were people who voted against vouchers

563
00:29:12,319 --> 00:29:16,920
and drew the attention and the considerable financial resources of

564
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,400
Greg Abbott. We're somewhere, you know, the back of the envelope.

565
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,880
Math is sort of like we're around like seventy nine

566
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,000
voucher supporters right now.

567
00:29:26,319 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 2: Is this a sure thing?

568
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:30,799
Speaker 4: I don't think so.

569
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,759
Speaker 5: I mean, it's it's I think we're heading into the

570
00:29:33,759 --> 00:29:38,880
session with you know, vouchers or education savings accounts, the

571
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,759
kind of voucher like policy that's being proposed. I think

572
00:29:41,799 --> 00:29:45,200
it has its best shot of passing maybe ever, at

573
00:29:45,279 --> 00:29:49,279
least in decades. But at the same time, you know,

574
00:29:49,359 --> 00:29:52,720
the official or I guess unofficial whip count that's being

575
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:56,839
thrown around in the House is seventy nine votes. Who

576
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,640
you know members who would support some sort of voucher

577
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,559
program if it hits the floor. You know, the big

578
00:30:02,599 --> 00:30:05,799
caveat there is that a whole lot of those members

579
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:09,240
are not on record saying what type of voucher program

580
00:30:09,279 --> 00:30:12,799
they would support. And when you pair that with just

581
00:30:13,279 --> 00:30:16,200
how slim that margin is, you know, you're only three

582
00:30:16,279 --> 00:30:19,920
votes past the number you need to reach majority in

583
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,799
the House. I think it's, you know, the smart money

584
00:30:24,799 --> 00:30:29,319
now is basically something is more likely to pass than not.

585
00:30:29,519 --> 00:30:34,319
But nobody really knows what you know, format is acceptable

586
00:30:34,359 --> 00:30:37,119
to a majority of House members, right, I.

587
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 6: Think it's I mean, nothing's for sure in the legislature,

588
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,240
but I think this is a pretty safe bet. As

589
00:30:41,279 --> 00:30:45,279
Jasper put it, just because you saw what Governor Abbott

590
00:30:45,279 --> 00:30:48,200
did in the primaries, you don't want to be facing

591
00:30:48,279 --> 00:30:52,119
him again in the primaries next time around. He wants

592
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,160
to get something done. He's been very clear about that.

593
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,359
He's brought in a whole new batch of lawmakers who

594
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,839
want to get something done on school choice. It just

595
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,880
is a question of what that sort of voucher legislation

596
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,319
looks like and I think that's going to be a

597
00:31:05,319 --> 00:31:08,079
sticking point, but I'm pretty sure it passes.

598
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think like you, if you're David Cook and

599
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,079
you and Speaker, you're you know, I think going to

600
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,720
be more aligned with Dan Patrick in the future, and

601
00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:18,079
like it's a little bit more smooth sailing. If you're

602
00:31:18,319 --> 00:31:22,119
Burrows or some other candidate, I think you probably politically

603
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,079
want to get Abbott as close to on your side

604
00:31:25,119 --> 00:31:28,319
as quickly as possible, and probably the best way to

605
00:31:28,359 --> 00:31:30,599
do that is to move a bill through and move

606
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,799
it through quickly so that we don't end up in

607
00:31:32,839 --> 00:31:34,880
the situation we ended up in twenty two.

608
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,359
Speaker 6: And Burrows I think has been supportive of school actually, right, Yeah,

609
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,039
so that's not an issue.

610
00:31:38,799 --> 00:31:39,599
Speaker 2: Right exactly.

611
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,039
Speaker 1: Okay, what other issues are standing out to y'all in

612
00:31:43,079 --> 00:31:45,960
the session? I'll start with you eleanor Well.

613
00:31:46,039 --> 00:31:48,119
Speaker 3: I as the women's health reporter, I got to make

614
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,599
a pitch for you know, twenty twenty three last session.

615
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,599
I joke, and this is very overstated, but that like

616
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,160
the word abortion was not said under the Capitol Dome

617
00:31:58,599 --> 00:32:00,400
in the twenty twenty three session. It just like was

618
00:32:00,839 --> 00:32:03,200
not touched at all, so, I obviously am watching to

619
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,240
see whether, you know, we've seen some momentum from conservatives

620
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:10,519
around trying to crack down further on abortion pills. We

621
00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:14,599
see a couple bills that modeled after like a Louisiana

622
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:19,400
bill that makes abortion inducing drugs a controlled substance, a

623
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,279
couple like smaller things on that front. And then I'm

624
00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:27,519
also watching after the election, where we saw so much conversation,

625
00:32:27,599 --> 00:32:34,000
particularly from conservatives about trans kids. Trans adults really was

626
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,880
seen as like a very powerful tool during the election

627
00:32:38,559 --> 00:32:41,400
for conservatives. I think we're expecting to see more bills.

628
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,000
You know, last session we saw a huge victory for

629
00:32:46,039 --> 00:32:49,799
conservatives on this effort they've been pushing for a while

630
00:32:49,839 --> 00:32:52,759
to ban gender firming care for minors. It's not yet

631
00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:55,559
clear like what the next frontier is whether they're going

632
00:32:55,559 --> 00:32:58,599
to sort of try to regulate trans adults lives or

633
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:03,559
further restrict sort of this care for trans miners, but

634
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:06,759
that probably will We'll see more conversation on that front

635
00:33:06,799 --> 00:33:07,759
than on the abortion front.

636
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you watched college football in the fall ahead

637
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,200
of the election, you know that that was maybe the

638
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,480
most popular Republican ad in Texas and beyond and so

639
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,359
you got to think there's going to be something related

640
00:33:20,359 --> 00:33:24,160
to that, you know, women's sports, trans kids, any of

641
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:25,000
those types of things.

642
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tricky because Texas has done a lot of

643
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,319
that already. But every I mean there's a group out

644
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:34,000
there that tracks like anti trans legislation, and it's just

645
00:33:34,039 --> 00:33:37,039
like the years Texas meets in the legislature, you can

646
00:33:37,079 --> 00:33:39,240
see there's like a huge spike nationally and then the

647
00:33:39,279 --> 00:33:41,440
years we don't meet, like other states are just not

648
00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:43,680
doing nearly as much as we are on that front.

649
00:33:43,759 --> 00:33:45,240
So they'll do something.

650
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:46,519
Speaker 2: James, what's on your radar?

651
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 6: Social conservatives are in so more socially conservative legislation.

652
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,039
Speaker 4: Ten Commandments bills, a lot of the trans bills.

653
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: Ten Commandments is requiring schools to hang them in the

654
00:33:56,039 --> 00:33:57,000
classroom walls.

655
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah.

656
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,079
Speaker 6: And then I think immigration is thing to watch. The

657
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,880
return of this question of banning whether cities and counties

658
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,719
can pay lobbyists to advocate on their behalf in Austin,

659
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,800
I think that's a big push my social conservatives.

660
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,039
Speaker 4: And then I guess immigration is something to watch too.

661
00:34:17,079 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean right, the big question is how much

662
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,039
does the state invest in immigration? And that Trump presidency.

663
00:34:23,639 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean all of the above for sure.

664
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 5: I think also just looking at the the budget surplus

665
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,440
that we're expected to see for the second straight regular session,

666
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,480
it's going to be a sizeable, you know, share of

667
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:41,320
some billions of dollars. We don't have the official estimate

668
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,159
yet from the Comptroller, Glenn Hagar, but that's going to

669
00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:48,760
be you know, doled out to presumably property tax cuts,

670
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,239
property tax relief of some sort. Just looking to see

671
00:34:53,119 --> 00:34:57,559
how big that relief packages, and also whether the two

672
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,159
chambers can agree on what format takes or whether we

673
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:06,159
see a redux of the you know, endless, endless fighting

674
00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:10,039
that led to multiple special sessions. I think also keeping

675
00:35:10,039 --> 00:35:12,880
on the theme of the budget surplus, like water, infrastructure

676
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,519
is a big one, just continuing the investment made last

677
00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:20,440
regular session to you know, fix the leaky pipes all

678
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,760
over the state and find new sources of water and

679
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,840
just kind of infrastructure in general. You know, we spend

680
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,079
billions of dollars on highway expansion and just all kinds

681
00:35:31,119 --> 00:35:34,320
of stuff that sort of flows under the radar of

682
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:38,199
these these charged political debates. But I think you know

683
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,519
a lot of the big issues will kind of flow

684
00:35:41,519 --> 00:35:44,480
through that the budget surplus two we're talking about like

685
00:35:44,559 --> 00:35:48,599
public school finance, you know, kind of parent that that

686
00:35:48,639 --> 00:35:53,199
conversation is always just by nature paired with the voucher talk.

687
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:58,679
Just you know, how much gets spent on raises for teachers,

688
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,840
and you know, trying to shore up.

689
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,760
Speaker 4: That issue, the workforce shortage.

690
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 5: In public schools. I think that's a big one. And

691
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,079
I guess the last one to flag would be the grid,

692
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,039
the power gridg just you know, Dan Patrick has said

693
00:36:12,079 --> 00:36:16,880
he wants to continue providing the low interest loans to

694
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:21,480
incentivize the construction of new natural gas plants. So just

695
00:36:22,079 --> 00:36:26,119
you know, whatever gets passed in that genre is hugely

696
00:36:26,119 --> 00:36:27,000
important for the state.

697
00:36:27,199 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, Urkott really support late last year or middle of

698
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,519
last year, actually saying predicting demand on the grid going

699
00:36:33,599 --> 00:36:36,360
up seventy five percent over the next six years. Anyone

700
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:40,760
who lived through twenty twenty one, that's a scary thing

701
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,039
to think about. I think the politicians of the state

702
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:45,800
would really like to not have something like that happen again.

703
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,159
So I think you'll see some commitment there. I'll add

704
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:52,280
two more gambling not I don't think a lot of

705
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,440
support for that in the Senate at least at the top,

706
00:36:54,519 --> 00:36:56,880
but a lot of money being spent by lobbyists on

707
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,079
that one, So that'll be a fun one to watch.

708
00:36:59,119 --> 00:37:02,360
And then THC marijuana. We talked about this already, Dan

709
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,679
Patrick coming out wanting to ban all those THHC products

710
00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:09,079
that are sort of like marijuana, sort of being unregulated

711
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,480
and right now in the way that they're sold.

712
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 6: That was interesting too because Sid Miller kind of came

713
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,840
out against that, and there's obviously a lot of rural

714
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:21,119
lawmakers who's that's a big cash game for them in

715
00:37:21,159 --> 00:37:21,639
their district.

716
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,599
Speaker 1: Well, and people forget that the House passed a marijuana

717
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,880
decriminalization bill last session. It's a very different House, of course,

718
00:37:29,159 --> 00:37:31,960
but I think a big a good question to ask

719
00:37:32,039 --> 00:37:34,559
of whether there's support for that in the.

720
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's kind of an early sleeper pick

721
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,639
for like a big issue that could divide the two chambers,

722
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,480
you know, when we get around to like April or May,

723
00:37:42,519 --> 00:37:45,239
and you know, thinking about bills that could could bring

724
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,719
drag other uncontroversial bills down with it. You know, there's

725
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,199
always a few of those every session. I feel like

726
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:53,880
it seemed like the vibe that in the House is

727
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:58,880
generally among the Republicans is against banning THHC, maybe more

728
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,320
regulation of it. It sort of depends on where Dan

729
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:03,559
Patrick wants to go with that.

730
00:38:04,199 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: Well, I hope y'all have your suits already and you

731
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:12,039
know your floor passes ready to go. It's going to

732
00:38:12,079 --> 00:38:15,079
be an interesting one hundred and forty days. We will

733
00:38:15,079 --> 00:38:16,840
be here, The trip Cast will be here, We're going

734
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,679
to be running through the legislative session. If we built

735
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,800
find an audience, if people are enjoying it, we're going

736
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:24,719
to keep going after that. So if you like the show,

737
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,519
you want to keep hearing it, share it with your friends,

738
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,400
give us a good review, do all the things that

739
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,280
can help kind of promote the trip Cast and everything there.

740
00:38:34,599 --> 00:38:38,360
Our schedule here is we're going to have a special

741
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,480
version of the trip Cast sometime after the speaker vote

742
00:38:43,519 --> 00:38:47,519
when we know who the speaker is, likely Wednesday, when

743
00:38:47,559 --> 00:38:49,599
that episode will come. Then after that will be in

744
00:38:49,639 --> 00:38:54,280
your various podcasting apps every Tuesday from here on out.

745
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:58,320
So it'll be me James and Eleanor and other Tribune

746
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,719
journalists alongside you know, some experts and other things like that.

747
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,920
So looking forward to going through that with y'all. I

748
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,440
want to say thank you to our sponsors, raise your hand,

749
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,519
Texas and Water Grows. Our producers for this show are

750
00:39:10,599 --> 00:39:14,559
Rob a Vila and Chris Voboda. Our music our theme

751
00:39:14,639 --> 00:39:16,960
music that you heard at the beginning composed by Rob,

752
00:39:17,039 --> 00:39:19,719
so shout out to him for that. And we will

753
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:20,760
see y'all next week