1 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,679 Speaker 1: And hello, how are you welcome to the Big podcast 2 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,559 on this Wednesday. Today is the third day of December, 3 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,399 year of our Lord twenty and twenty five. My name 4 00:00:35,439 --> 00:00:39,520 is Tom Sullivan. So as we gather around the old 5 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:45,960 podcast today, We've got the election in Tennessee seventh District 6 00:00:46,039 --> 00:00:52,079 last night, Venezuela and all the problems with them. Tariffs 7 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:55,960 are back in the news, some presidential pardons back in 8 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:00,119 the news. So we've got a lot and affordability is 9 00:01:00,119 --> 00:01:05,120 is also part of the Tennessee story as well, because 10 00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:10,519 in Tennessee, the woman that is described as a Marxist, 11 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:20,359 very very far left socialist democrat who did not win well. 12 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,439 Let me give you the numbers on this, because let 13 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:28,719 me see, where's my Tennessee. She did well, considering the 14 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,120 fact that she did well in the city of Nashville, 15 00:01:32,439 --> 00:01:37,680 one of those urban stories. Democrats do better in urban areas, 16 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,879 and so she did well in Nashville, but the rest 17 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:47,680 of the seventh district, which is quite extensive, she did terrible. 18 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,280 And Matt Van Epps, who won the race last night, 19 00:01:53,159 --> 00:01:58,879 everybody is saying, well, I find it humorous. They said, well, 20 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,400 we did much better than we than we expected. So 21 00:02:01,439 --> 00:02:03,680 that's a real win in our calmn. No, it's not. 22 00:02:04,159 --> 00:02:07,359 You either win or you lose. There's no in between. 23 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,919 I understand you're trying to cover your bruises. But the 24 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,719 vote was ninety six thousand voted for Matt Van Epps, 25 00:02:16,439 --> 00:02:20,719 eighty one thousand voted for the lady who's the far 26 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:26,719 lefty there, So that was fifteen thousand difference. She's the 27 00:02:26,759 --> 00:02:29,520 one who and this is what surprises me about Nashville, 28 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,080 she's the one that says she doesn't like Nashville. She 29 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,879 hates it, can't stand it. She can't stand country music, 30 00:02:38,719 --> 00:02:44,360 she can't stand religious people. Christians make her nervous. I mean, 31 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,520 the list goes on and on and on about she 32 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:52,159 said all the wrong things. But what happened was apparently 33 00:02:52,319 --> 00:02:56,919 she started polling pretty well and that made the Republicans nervous, 34 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:58,360 and they ran there and they put a lot of 35 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,479 money into the race, and it had turned out fine. 36 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,800 The margin. A lot of the Democrats said, well, I 37 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,840 she didn't get the twenty two percent margin that Donald 38 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,639 Trump got when he won the seventh district running for president, 39 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:18,639 And no, Matt ben Epps is not Donald Trump. Secondly, 40 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:24,520 it was the special election, which very very different results 41 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:30,240 come out of special election. So well, let's listen to 42 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:33,120 some of the people that chime in on this. First 43 00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:40,159 of all, Byron Yorick gives us his assessment of what 44 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,400 happened in Tennessee last night. 45 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 2: Improvement for them, So that's a big thing for them. Now, 46 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,879 Democrats had been framing this race as a race in 47 00:03:48,919 --> 00:03:52,599 which if they had a narrow loss, it would still 48 00:03:52,639 --> 00:03:54,639 be a victory for them because it would show as 49 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:59,599 the numbers you just cited said that without Donald Trump 50 00:03:59,599 --> 00:04:02,840 on the ballot, Republicans can't do as well as they 51 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,599 did with Trump on the ballot. Now, is nine points 52 00:04:05,639 --> 00:04:10,759 that narrow of victory. I don't know, because it's reasonably 53 00:04:11,039 --> 00:04:15,439 impressive victory. And there is a debate this morning among Democrats, 54 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,199 among centrist Democrats who're saying, look, if you elect left 55 00:04:19,199 --> 00:04:22,279 wing candidates like Afton Bain, you're not going to perform 56 00:04:22,319 --> 00:04:26,439 as well as you can in a number of centrist districts. 57 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,959 So I think there's something to caution both sides in 58 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,240 this election result. 59 00:04:32,439 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, So the result was again there was a nine 60 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:39,720 point spread that Van Epps beat his opponent by nine points. 61 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,480 Mark Green, who used to be the congressman that resigned 62 00:04:43,519 --> 00:04:47,319 from Congress. He won by twenty points in a regular election, 63 00:04:47,399 --> 00:04:50,360 not a special election. And Donald Trump won by twenty 64 00:04:50,399 --> 00:04:53,680 two points when he was running for president in twenty 65 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,399 twenty four. So that's how they're comparing to all of this. 66 00:04:56,519 --> 00:04:59,839 But one of the things that the Democrat, even though 67 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,399 she may be a big socialist and big Marxist, she 68 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:09,920 was given the right words to say about affordability. Affordability 69 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:16,439 seems to be the key word that is attracting votes. 70 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,040 President Trump blew it off like it was nothing. Here's 71 00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:22,399 what he had to say about it. 72 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:27,319 Speaker 3: There's this fake narrative that the Democrats talk about affordability. 73 00:05:27,639 --> 00:05:30,319 They just say the word. It doesn't mean anything to anybody, 74 00:05:30,959 --> 00:05:35,360 just say it affordability. I inherited the worst inflation in history. 75 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,560 There was no affordability. Nobody could afford any of it. 76 00:05:37,879 --> 00:05:41,680 The word affordability is a conjob by the Democrats. 77 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:47,399 Speaker 1: Byron York says, maybe not, maybe this isn't a con job. Prices. Yes, 78 00:05:47,519 --> 00:05:50,639 inflation was much higher under Biden, but prices are still 79 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:55,240 going up. And so if you were having affordability problems 80 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,839 in the Biden administration, they're slightly worse today than they 81 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:02,160 were then. Some rices have come down, many have gone up. 82 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:06,040 Overall inflation rate three percent. So let's go back to 83 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:07,920 Byron York and see how he addresses this. 84 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think there is an impression among a 85 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:15,680 number of Republicans that President Trump, who got elected mainly 86 00:06:15,759 --> 00:06:20,120 because of Biden era inflation, has not paid enough attention 87 00:06:20,319 --> 00:06:23,399 to reducing that in his first ten months as president. 88 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:26,519 There's just no doubt about that. And Republicans have reason 89 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:31,399 to worry about these upcoming midterms because the president's party 90 00:06:31,519 --> 00:06:36,000 often loses seats in a mid term. President Trump's approval 91 00:06:36,079 --> 00:06:38,839 rating is somewhere in the forties, maybe the low forties, 92 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,560 which doesn't tell you he's going to pick up a 93 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:46,000 lot of seats. And this is something that sort of 94 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,439 traditionally happens, so it'd be very it would be unusual 95 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,160 if the president could actually keep the narrow margin in 96 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:54,519 the House next year. 97 00:06:54,639 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, So again, everybody, all politicians two, the new governor 98 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,519 or of Virginia, new governor of New Jersey, they promised 99 00:07:03,519 --> 00:07:05,279 they were going to bring prices down to the President 100 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,800 said he was going to bring prices down. I don't 101 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:12,959 know if the government can bring prices down directly through policy. 102 00:07:13,639 --> 00:07:21,199 You can, but it takes time. David Axelrod basically points 103 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,759 out this is the problem that Joe Biden had. 104 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:24,319 Speaker 4: Look. 105 00:07:24,639 --> 00:07:27,519 Speaker 5: I don't know whether he wasn't paying attention during the 106 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,519 last election, but this is exactly how Joe Biden got 107 00:07:30,519 --> 00:07:33,680 in trouble by insisting that the economy was strong, that 108 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,720 the inflation issue was under control, when people were going 109 00:07:37,759 --> 00:07:40,839 to the grocery store and going you know, paying their 110 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,319 rent and their insurance and all their costs, and they 111 00:07:44,399 --> 00:07:48,639 saw in real time what was happening. And it's still happening. 112 00:07:48,639 --> 00:07:50,879 We're no better off on inflation today than we were 113 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,959 the day he walked in. And how long can you 114 00:07:54,079 --> 00:07:57,839 keep blaming the last guy for your problems? You know 115 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,839 the Harry Truman's of the bucksty here, the motto of 116 00:08:01,879 --> 00:08:04,959 this administration seems to be the buck stops there. Because 117 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,560 I think he recognized he promised to very quickly bring 118 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,000 down prices. That was the offer in the election. He's failed, 119 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,439 and that's the reason his numbers are tumbling more than 120 00:08:14,519 --> 00:08:15,240 anything else. 121 00:08:15,399 --> 00:08:18,199 Speaker 1: So back to Tennessee, the lady that lost there did 122 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,720 go out and started in her campaign and campaign ads 123 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:26,240 talking about affordability. But it was almost like it was 124 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,560 on a teleprompter. It was scripted for her, and Byron 125 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,480 new York observed pretty much the same thing. 126 00:08:33,919 --> 00:08:37,799 Speaker 2: It was basically a critique, and it was like, this 127 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,440 is what I'm supposed to talk about. What happened in 128 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,799 the race was I think Republicans assumed they were going 129 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,720 to win it. They didn't pay any attention to it. 130 00:08:46,879 --> 00:08:49,120 They got scared by some polls in the last several 131 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,960 weeks showing her doing very well. 132 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 6: They woke up. 133 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,759 Speaker 2: They looked into her past, and they found out that 134 00:08:54,799 --> 00:08:56,600 she had said a lot of things that would turn 135 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,559 off voters in the district. For example, she said she 136 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,639 hated Nashville, she hated country music, which is it is 137 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,960 kind of like running for office in Green Bay saying 138 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,600 you know, I really hate the packer does not work. 139 00:09:10,159 --> 00:09:14,240 So finally, this OPO research kicked in. You had this 140 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,360 nine percent of vote margin, and Republicans are feeling a 141 00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:19,320 little better about it. 142 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,399 Speaker 1: Yeah. The other interesting part, I'll go back to what 143 00:09:21,919 --> 00:09:25,759 Byron York said early, was the fact that there's a 144 00:09:25,799 --> 00:09:29,639 lot of Democrats that are now starting to do a 145 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,159 little bit of navel gazing about the fact that did 146 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:37,279 we run the wrong candidate? The fact that the far 147 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:41,759 left candidates won't be able to win is and that's 148 00:09:41,799 --> 00:09:43,799 what the Democrats were thinking about. Maybe we should have 149 00:09:43,879 --> 00:09:47,919 run a more mainstream democrat than this far left socialist. 150 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,320 So let's pick up on what happened today. On the 151 00:09:52,039 --> 00:09:55,399 big question about the blowing up of the drug boats 152 00:09:55,480 --> 00:10:01,120 out in the ocean, General Mark Kimmel was asked about 153 00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:05,279 whether or not this is something that appears to be 154 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:06,679 a war crime or not. 155 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:07,279 Speaker 7: No. 156 00:10:07,399 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 4: In the military, it's commonly known. You can delegate authority, 157 00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:14,559 you can't delegate responsibility. Look, the President of the United 158 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,480 States is responsible for this mission. I don't think he's 159 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,600 trying to duck and cover or bob and weave on this. 160 00:10:21,519 --> 00:10:25,759 That's just understood. So any argument about authority and responsibility, 161 00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:28,240 I think is a dry argument. The fact that there's 162 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,919 a second strike means nothing. We in the military typically 163 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:36,519 conduct second and third and four strikes on targets if 164 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,399 the first strike does not achieve the objectives of that target. 165 00:10:40,799 --> 00:10:44,080 The only thing a question here is, in fact, were 166 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:50,080 there two survivors non combatants on that vote when they 167 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:55,559 conducted that second strike? American military does not kill non combatants, 168 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,559 it does not kill prisoners, it does not kill or 169 00:10:58,639 --> 00:11:02,200 torture prisoners, And I don't think it's been firmly established 170 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,200 at this point, and I'm glad on Thursday that there 171 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:09,440 will be an inquiry and discussions send it Intel Committee, 172 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,840 because I think at that point, until there's an admission 173 00:11:12,919 --> 00:11:15,960 by somebody who actually saw what happened, I think we're 174 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,759 just going into speculation right now. 175 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:21,159 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, there's a lot of speculation. But as he said, 176 00:11:21,399 --> 00:11:27,159 the inquiry on Thursday, that's tomorrow, and Admiral Bradley is 177 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,600 going to be obviously the star witness that is going 178 00:11:30,639 --> 00:11:33,799 to go there, and the members of the Senate Intel 179 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,480 Committee are thinking that he is going to be able 180 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:41,279 to really shed the light of truth on whatever it 181 00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:44,759 was that happened and whether a war crime was committed 182 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,000 or not. Mark Short, the former chief of Staff or 183 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,879 Vice President Pence, was asked what his view was of 184 00:11:52,919 --> 00:11:53,679 this look. 185 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,919 Speaker 8: I think that I support the President's efforts to protect 186 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:58,960 America from arco terras. I think there's a lot of 187 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,759 critics in this town. I think it's actually a responsible 188 00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:04,039 effort on his part too, to be protecting America's shore 189 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,000 from drug smugglers. As the general said, I don't see 190 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,519 the president ducking responsibility for this. He's taken responsibility. At 191 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,440 the same time, I think it is important to have 192 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,720 the inquiry. I think we have the most remarkable men 193 00:12:14,759 --> 00:12:17,639 and women serving in uniform. They are not trained to 194 00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:19,919 shoot fish in a bottle, and so I think that 195 00:12:19,919 --> 00:12:22,360 that barrel in and I think in this case it's 196 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,600 important to know did they know there were non combatants 197 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:28,279 that were alive and clinging to that vessel or did 198 00:12:28,279 --> 00:12:30,480 they not know? And I think that that's important to 199 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,240 get to the bottom because in the world we stand 200 00:12:33,279 --> 00:12:36,039 as a stark contrast to the way Russia's prosecutates war 201 00:12:36,039 --> 00:12:39,080 against Ukraine, and it's important that we continue to do that. 202 00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:40,440 And so I think it's important to get to the 203 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,679 bottom of this. But at this point, I think, you know, 204 00:12:42,879 --> 00:12:45,120 I'm not one to sit here and throw stones at 205 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,840 the president. I think the president's accepting responsibility for the attack, 206 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:49,720 and I think it's important to get to the bottom 207 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:50,320 of the matter too. 208 00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:54,399 Speaker 1: This is one of those stories that if you ask 209 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,639 the question, do you think it's important to draw to 210 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:03,200 stop the drugs flowing from South America into the United States. 211 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,320 I think ninety nine point nine percent of you would 212 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,240 say yes, all except for you drug dealers. The rest 213 00:13:09,279 --> 00:13:11,799 of you would say yes, let's stop them. Let's stop 214 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,639 the drugs from coming into our country. It's a whole 215 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,840 different show to talk about. That's the supply side. To 216 00:13:17,879 --> 00:13:21,240 talk about the demand side, and how do you get 217 00:13:21,279 --> 00:13:25,879 people to stop wanting to buy drugs and provide millions, 218 00:13:25,879 --> 00:13:30,559 if not billions of dollars to the cartels. So at 219 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:35,960 first glance, yes, I'm all four them stopping drugs coming 220 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,360 into this country. So then the second part of the 221 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,639 question is, well, how far are you willing to go 222 00:13:40,879 --> 00:13:45,879 to stop the drug cartels from shipping these drugs into 223 00:13:45,919 --> 00:13:50,399 the US. And I think there's probably a split audience 224 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,960 out there, But at first it sounded terrible. Oh my gosh, 225 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,759 we're shooting innocent people in the water. We can't do that. 226 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,200 Our military is better than that. But if you allso so, 227 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:03,240 look and you go we're trying to stop the cartels 228 00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:08,440 and the people that are running these drugs, I think 229 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,600 you might get different answers out of that whole thing. 230 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,480 President Trump, when he was asked about Venezuela in the 231 00:14:14,519 --> 00:14:17,679 fact that we may wind up doing more than shooting 232 00:14:17,759 --> 00:14:20,240 boats out of the water. We may do land strikes, 233 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,080 and maybe in more countries than just Venezuela. 234 00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:26,799 Speaker 3: I want those boats taken out, and if we have to, 235 00:14:26,799 --> 00:14:29,759 will attack on land also, just like we attack on sea, 236 00:14:29,799 --> 00:14:31,960 and they're very little coming in by sea. I think 237 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,080 we've knocked out over ninety percent of it's very little, kid, 238 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:39,200 I understand that there's very little. We're saving hundreds of 239 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,600 thousands of lives with those pinpoint attacks. 240 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: Okay, So if the president wants to go beyond Venezuela, 241 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:47,759 because he was asked about are you going to go 242 00:14:47,879 --> 00:14:53,480 other countries? He indicated yes. Chuck Schumer said, wait a minute, 243 00:14:53,519 --> 00:14:55,960 Congress gets to say whether you do that. 244 00:14:56,879 --> 00:15:00,399 Speaker 9: I've asked Heke Seth over and over again to release 245 00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:02,840 the video so we see what's going on and we 246 00:15:02,879 --> 00:15:05,480 see if there are war crimes, if the War Powers 247 00:15:05,519 --> 00:15:10,679 Act is being violated. But a land strike on Venezuela 248 00:15:10,759 --> 00:15:14,840 would clearly require us to invoke the War Powers Act. 249 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 1: So stand by for that because there'll be a battle 250 00:15:18,279 --> 00:15:22,519 between It's based on should be based upon the Constitution, 251 00:15:22,919 --> 00:15:27,360 but it will be based upon politics mostly. Marco Rubio's 252 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:31,720 secretary of State was asked about Venezuela, and if you 253 00:15:31,879 --> 00:15:34,559 followed this story at all, you know that there was 254 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:38,519 an election, I don't know, a year ago, maybe less 255 00:15:38,559 --> 00:15:42,679 than a year ago, and every outside observer that was 256 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,519 sent there to observe the election said that he lost, 257 00:15:46,399 --> 00:15:51,320 lost bigly. And he just said, no, I did not lose. 258 00:15:51,399 --> 00:15:54,320 I'm staying in office at the president of Venezuela. So 259 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,799 Mark Rubio says, well, that's nice, except for he doesn't 260 00:15:57,799 --> 00:15:59,159 have a legitimate government. 261 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 7: Regime is not a legitimate government. What it is is 262 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,279 it tates transhipment organization. It allows cocaine and other drugs 263 00:16:07,279 --> 00:16:10,960 that are produced in Colombia to be trafficked through Venezuelan territory. 264 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,879 In addition to that, the Venezuelan regime is a source 265 00:16:13,919 --> 00:16:16,919 of instability in the entire region. Over eight million Venezuelans 266 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,480 have flooded into neighboring countries as a result of the 267 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,840 regime's activities within their own country, including into the United States. 268 00:16:23,039 --> 00:16:24,879 They also happen to be the foothold of Iran. 269 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: That's not spoken about enough. 270 00:16:26,639 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: Bottom line out of all of this is the cocaine 271 00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:34,559 comes through the Caribbean to the United States. Apparently the 272 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:39,240 fentanyl is sent up through the Pacific and winds up 273 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,919 in Mexico and then into the United States from there. 274 00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:46,759 So the fentanyl is not being intercepted with these boats 275 00:16:46,799 --> 00:16:49,159 out there that we're blowing out of the water. Is 276 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:53,039 the cocaine. But I'm sure they'll get around to it. Meantime, 277 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,080 as far as blowing these boats out of the water, 278 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,720 is it having any impact? And forgive me for looking 279 00:16:59,759 --> 00:17:03,840 at it from the point of an economist, If you 280 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:08,759 have a supply that has all of a sudden been constricted, 281 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,640 there is less supply of a product and the demand 282 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,599 is still the same, then the price of the product 283 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,119 goes up. So for those of you that are drug 284 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,640 used illegal drug users, you can give me a call 285 00:17:22,759 --> 00:17:26,279 let me know. Have you seen the prices change? You 286 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:29,400 can know. You can use an anonymous name phone numbers 287 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:34,640 eight five five two nine five sixty six hundred. You 288 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,519 can look at that. You look up on my website 289 00:17:36,559 --> 00:17:39,839 Tomsullivan dot com and you'll find that phone number eight 290 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,480 five five two nine five sixty six hundred. Terry call 291 00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:49,559 ahead of the DEA said, oh yeah, the supply has 292 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,000 been diminished. 293 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,279 Speaker 10: There's no doubt that these traffickers, these foreign terrists, are 294 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:58,640 designated to target our kids. They're using social media platforms, 295 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:04,160 They're using Instagram. We have seen a change in first 296 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:09,039 stop loads, meaning when cocaine arrives to the Dominican Republic, 297 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,519 it's now more expensive. When cocaine arrives to the Puerto 298 00:18:12,599 --> 00:18:14,240 Rico it is more expensive. 299 00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: So, in a weird way, this may be the best 300 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,079 we've been ever been able to do in the war 301 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:24,599 on drugs. The war on drugs has just kept things. 302 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,759 It's still going on. But if you drive the price 303 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,599 up economics, there may be people out there that are 304 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,720 drug users that are going, I really need to get 305 00:18:33,759 --> 00:18:38,240 off this drug, well because it's bad for me, but 306 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,960 also I can't afford it anymore. Another area of the 307 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,880 world that we are watching is Ukraine Russia war and 308 00:18:46,759 --> 00:18:51,680 the US delegation was in Moscow and they had a 309 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:57,400 five hour meeting yesterday regarding peace talks and it ended 310 00:18:57,599 --> 00:19:01,680 without any compromise is on the part of the Russians. 311 00:19:02,319 --> 00:19:06,559 General Jack Keane has this information for us. Well. 312 00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 6: I think the process itself, certainly what it's been able 313 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:15,519 to do with the meeting in Geneva with the Ukrainians, 314 00:19:15,519 --> 00:19:18,119 the Americans and the Europeans, and then the meeting in 315 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:24,000 Florida with the Americans and Ukrainians and now with Russia. 316 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:29,680 Is clearly to identify the Ukrainian redlines and what concessions 317 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,119 they likely can be made. And also the same thing 318 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,640 with the Russians. They got feedback for sure on that. 319 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:41,039 So I think what remaining issues are there are clearly identified, 320 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,920 and then is there some negotiation space to be able 321 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,200 to bring them together. That's the answer. We don't know yet, 322 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,279 but as this unfolds, we're going to get those answers. 323 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,440 And let's just assume that the Ukrainians are willing to 324 00:19:55,440 --> 00:20:00,119 make some concessions and concessions over territory for example, that 325 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,880 means they're going to need some kind of security guarantees 326 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,279 going forward. And so do people understand that What we're 327 00:20:06,279 --> 00:20:08,960 trying to say is the Ukrainians if they're going to 328 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,160 make a deal with the Russians, because the Russians have 329 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,240 always said, and believe me, I don't think for a minute, 330 00:20:14,279 --> 00:20:16,720 regardless of what deal the Russians make, they change this. 331 00:20:17,519 --> 00:20:20,720 Their intent is to take Ukrainian and topple it. Maybe 332 00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:22,519 not in the near term if they make a deal, 333 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,319 but eventually they will do that, likely post Trump administration. 334 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,200 So if that's the case and everybody believes that, and 335 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,000 I believe it, I think the Ukrainians believe it, I 336 00:20:31,039 --> 00:20:33,359 think the United States believes it, then you have to 337 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,519 put something in place to prevent that from happening, and 338 00:20:36,559 --> 00:20:39,680 it has to be enduring over time. And what are 339 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:44,279 we talking about. We're talking about US and European airpower. 340 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,039 If there's a violation, they would strike. We're talking about 341 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,359 forces on the ground on the Ukrainian side of the 342 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,480 line to make certain if there's any penetration there, those 343 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,359 forces are there, one to deter it, but two to 344 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,839 stop it if necessary, supported by airpower, maybe a training 345 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,359 unit deep inside of Ukraine from the United States to 346 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:09,200 help reform and rebuild their military and make their defense 347 00:21:09,279 --> 00:21:12,279 industrial base as roebus as it can. Then you need 348 00:21:12,839 --> 00:21:15,960 maritime fleet in the Black Sea to make certain that 349 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,359 there's no advantage being taken by Russia into Black Sea 350 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:25,480 as well. That is, as is good security guarantees to 351 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,799 make certain that Russia doesn't fulfill it's much stated promise 352 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:33,519 to topple and take Ukraine That's just an example of 353 00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:36,400 some of the challenges. Now, how would Putin respond to 354 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,079 that when Ukrainians would maybe likely agree to something I 355 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,759 just said. Putin would look at that and probably come 356 00:21:42,839 --> 00:21:46,200 right back and say no foreign troops whatsoever in Ukraine. 357 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,960 How do we know that because he said it time 358 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,839 and time again. Would he be willing to make a 359 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,759 concession at least for a few years while President Trump 360 00:21:53,799 --> 00:21:57,200 is in power. Maybe that's a fact. But just to 361 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,599 give you some sense of the challenges here. And if 362 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,119 Zelenski is going to give up territory, he has to 363 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,759 take that to his people. He has to assume his 364 00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:09,480 people are going to support it. He doesn't want them 365 00:22:10,039 --> 00:22:13,720 to not support it and certainly put him at risk politically. 366 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,920 There are real serious issues here. I applaud the administration 367 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,519 for the perseverance and steadfastness and the continue to work 368 00:22:22,599 --> 00:22:26,000 this in front of all these obstacles that are there. 369 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,519 Speaker 1: So the key part of General King's comments were the 370 00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:32,960 fact that Putin wants to take Ukraine. That bottom line, 371 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,759 he'll say whatever it is to get a short term deal, 372 00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:38,880 but somewhere down the road he wants to go and 373 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:43,359 get Ukraine. And Gary Gasparov who is the grand champion 374 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,799 for a chess grand champion is a big anti Putin guy. 375 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,680 He's born and raised in Russia and he is in 376 00:22:51,759 --> 00:22:54,960 exile now. I heard him interviewed last night and he 377 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,200 said the same thing. He said, doesn't matter. All these 378 00:22:58,279 --> 00:23:01,240 meetings and all these people getting together and all the 379 00:23:01,279 --> 00:23:06,680 conferences and uh Putin won't stop. As long as he 380 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,200 is in power. He is going to continue to try 381 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,640 and take control of Ukraine and bring it back under 382 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:22,640 the umbrella of Mother Russia. So some more pardon news today, yesterday, 383 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,720 the day before, was it two days ago when we 384 00:23:24,799 --> 00:23:28,680 had the news about the Honduras former president of Honduras 385 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:34,319 who was pardoned by President Trump and a real question 386 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:39,279 about that because he was convicted by a jury here 387 00:23:39,279 --> 00:23:44,519 in the US of basically bringing in four hundred tons 388 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:49,680 of cocaine. But the President was asked about why did 389 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,039 you do that, and he said, well, I have people 390 00:23:52,079 --> 00:23:54,759 from Honduras telling me that it was all a set 391 00:23:54,839 --> 00:23:58,319 up by Joe Biden and framed him. So therefore I'm 392 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,920 giving him pardon. Well today there's another pardon. It's Henry Quaar, 393 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:12,079 the congressman from Texas Democrat. He represents the area south 394 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:16,799 of San Antonio down to the border with Mexico, so 395 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:21,559 his congressional district is right along the Rio Grande. And 396 00:24:22,799 --> 00:24:28,640 he was charged with taking bribes corruption and his trial 397 00:24:28,759 --> 00:24:32,240 is supposed to start in twenty twenty six. He was 398 00:24:32,319 --> 00:24:39,039 charged with taking bribes from a Mexican bank and an 399 00:24:39,079 --> 00:24:45,119 Azerbaijan oil company six hundred thousand dollars he and his wife. 400 00:24:45,839 --> 00:24:49,880 He has denied that he ran for reelection. The people 401 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:55,119 of South Texas reelected him. But again the trial is 402 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,920 coming up, and today the President said that you are pardon. 403 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,000 That's what the President said on his truth social post. 404 00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:07,799 He said for years, the Biden administration weaponized the Justice 405 00:25:07,799 --> 00:25:13,680 Department against their political opponents. H that's unfamiliar and anyone 406 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,920 who disagreed with them. One of the clearest examples of 407 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,000 this was when Crooked Joe used the FBI and DOJ 408 00:25:20,599 --> 00:25:23,440 to take out a member of their own party, highly 409 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:29,240 respected Congressman Henry Quaar bravely spoke out against open borders 410 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,920 and the Biden border catastrophe. Well, Sleepy Joe went after 411 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,960 the congressman and even the congressman's wonderful wife, Amelda, simply 412 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,319 for speaking The truth. It is un American, and I 413 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,480 previously stated the radical left Democrats are a complete and 414 00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:48,799 total threat to democracy. They will attack, rob lide sheet, 415 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,839 destroy and decimate anyone who dares to oppose their far 416 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,519 left agenda, an agenda that, if left uncheck, would obliterate 417 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:00,519 our magnificent country. Because of these facts and others, I 418 00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:06,319 hereby announced my full an unconditional pardon of beloved Texas 419 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,559 Congressman Henry Quaar and Amelda Henry. I don't know you, 420 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,119 but you can sleep well tonight. Your nightmare is finally over. 421 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:21,240 So yeah, there. He's a very more conservative Democrat than most, 422 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,599 but he did he spoke out against what was going 423 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,000 on at the border, and the next thing you know, 424 00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:32,240 v OJ was going after him and his wife. So 425 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,839 whether there's any truth to the bribery charges or not, 426 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:41,480 we'll never know. He was pardoned today and Hakim Jeffries 427 00:26:42,599 --> 00:26:46,960 was asked about this because the question with Quaar is 428 00:26:47,039 --> 00:26:51,799 will he leave the Democrat Party and become a Republican 429 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,960 where the race for the majority of the House is 430 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,319 going to be very very tight. 431 00:26:57,519 --> 00:27:00,279 Speaker 11: Here's Hakim jeffersoned here, do you think that was a 432 00:27:00,319 --> 00:27:00,599 good thing? 433 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 12: Then? I don't know why the President decided to do this. 434 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,000 I think the outcome was exactly the right outcome. 435 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 3: Well just well. 436 00:27:07,799 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 11: Congressman QUAYR, we should note, is one of a handful 437 00:27:11,519 --> 00:27:14,400 of House Democrats who sits in a district President Trump 438 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,599 one in twenty twenty four, so now he has this 439 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,200 presidential pardon. Have you had any conversations with the congressman 440 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,480 about him potentially switching to the Republican Party. 441 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,559 Speaker 12: I think Congressman Quay Aar is a highly valued member 442 00:27:29,559 --> 00:27:32,039 of the House Democratic Caucus, and I expect that he'll 443 00:27:32,039 --> 00:27:34,519 continue to remain a highly valued member of the House 444 00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:35,599 Democratic Caucus. 445 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: So he's hoping to because again this is a race 446 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,960 between well the Republicans of the Democrats control the House 447 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,079 of Representatives. You want to talk to tariffs, you know, 448 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,960 I don't like tariffs, and they're having all kinds of 449 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,880 right we had. By the way, in our economic news today, 450 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,720 we got import and export prices for the month of November. 451 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:03,039 And import prices where are they put them? Somewhere on here? 452 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:11,079 They flat unchanged, flat unchanged. And this is if you 453 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,000 have import prices which are calculated without any thing to 454 00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:18,960 do with tariffs. That means that the people, the foreigners 455 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,880 that are selling products to Americans and they're coming in 456 00:28:23,279 --> 00:28:26,720 whether they have a lot, whatever the tariff might be, 457 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,559 if the import prices of calculator, there's no change. That 458 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,759 means that the people from other countries are not discounting 459 00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:39,200 their products, and those tariffs are being attached to products 460 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,200 that you and I are buying. The wholesalers and retailers 461 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,279 here in the US are the ones that have to 462 00:28:45,319 --> 00:28:50,000 decide whether or not to pass on those tariffs, but 463 00:28:50,039 --> 00:28:56,160 they're not getting discounts from the foreign sellers. Costco has 464 00:28:56,519 --> 00:28:59,759 filed a lawsuit, by the way, and I expect there 465 00:28:59,759 --> 00:29:03,119 will be number of other major retailers that will join in. 466 00:29:03,319 --> 00:29:06,960 Costco is not afraid of making the White House upset 467 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,880 with them, but they have filed a lawsuit about the 468 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,160 fact that they didn't give the amount, but a huge 469 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,519 amount of tariffs that they are paying on the products 470 00:29:17,519 --> 00:29:21,559 that they are bringing in for the Costco warehouses. So, 471 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:27,680 Harry Anton Cook a look at how people feel about 472 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,160 these tariffs now that we're a few months into it. 473 00:29:30,359 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 13: Yeah, this is a topic on which the American people 474 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:37,279 have shifted significantly, and they have shifted significantly against tariffs. 475 00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:39,680 I mean, this just gives you an indication. I mean, 476 00:29:39,759 --> 00:29:42,160 just look at this shift over the last year. When 477 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,839 Donald Trump was elected. Back in November of twenty twenty four, 478 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,480 fifty two percent of Americans favored new tariffs on imported 479 00:29:48,559 --> 00:29:51,680 goods forty eight percent of post Look at this switcheroo. Now, 480 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,759 by late October of twenty twenty five, the clear majority 481 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,799 sixty two percent oppose new tariffs. That favor number has 482 00:30:00,119 --> 00:30:03,799 absolutely plummeted down a thirty eight percent on the key 483 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,240 policy that Donald Trump has been pushing. Since the beginning 484 00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:10,920 of this second term, the American people have shifted completely 485 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,039 against the President of the United This issue is dragging, 486 00:30:15,519 --> 00:30:18,160 dragging Donald Trump down because why what are we just 487 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,200 looking at here? Trump's not approval rating on trade slash trust. 488 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,640 In January it was okay, right, it was doing okay, 489 00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:27,200 was minus two points. But in this political environment and 490 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,160 the fact that polls oftentimes underestimate Donald Trump, this ain't 491 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,000 too bad of a number. 492 00:30:31,039 --> 00:30:32,279 Speaker 9: Look at where we are now. 493 00:30:32,519 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 13: Minus twenty four points, a shift of twenty points away 494 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,680 from the President of the United States. I was looking 495 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,799 at data around this point in his first term. This 496 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,799 is double digits worse as well as he was at 497 00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:46,240 this point on trade in tars As where he was 498 00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:48,440 in term number one. At this point, the American people 499 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,720 have moved against tariff and they have definitely moved against 500 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,079 Donald Trump. Yeah, the question is why, what's cook and 501 00:30:55,119 --> 00:30:57,359 why are the folks moving against Donald Trump? Why are 502 00:30:57,359 --> 00:31:01,240 they moving against tarris. I mean, this just gives you indication. Say, 503 00:31:01,279 --> 00:31:04,720 tariff's effect on prices in the short term increase. In March, 504 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:09,279 seventy two percent, seventy two percent of Americans believed that 505 00:31:09,359 --> 00:31:11,720 tarifs raives prices in the short term in March. You 506 00:31:11,839 --> 00:31:14,920 come over to October, Donald Trump's are making the argument, 507 00:31:15,119 --> 00:31:17,240 and the American people ain't buying it. 508 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 9: Ain't buying it seventy one percent. 509 00:31:18,799 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 13: It is awfully difficult when the number one issue in 510 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,799 the country right now is inflation, is affordability, and folks 511 00:31:24,839 --> 00:31:28,279 believe that a signature policy of yours increases prices. That 512 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,759 is no bueno, That is no good, no wonder Americans 513 00:31:31,799 --> 00:31:34,960 are moving against Tariff's and moving against Donald Trump's. Donald 514 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,799 Trump on Tarff's, as I said at the beginning, it 515 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,400 is dragging him. 516 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: But wait a minute, because the President came up the 517 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,960 other day. I mentioned maybe, maybe, maybe there will be 518 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:48,799 a couple thousand dollars rebate check for the Americans. Not 519 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,559 for everybody, but for most people, a couple thousand dollars 520 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,559 rebate check from the money that's coming in from the tariffs. 521 00:31:56,839 --> 00:31:59,079 And I look listened to that and I thought, Oh, 522 00:31:59,119 --> 00:32:03,039 he's just trying to get public support. The Supreme Court 523 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,160 still has to decide whether or not he has the 524 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,359 authority to even issue a tariff. 525 00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 13: Yeah, okay, So you know, one of the best ways 526 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,200 we can look at this is the prediction markets, because 527 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,640 they give you an indication of where people are putting 528 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,799 their money where their mouth is, right, do they think 529 00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:20,799 that the tariffs, that these rebate checks are actually coming? 530 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,319 And at this point no, no, I mean chance Trump 531 00:32:24,359 --> 00:32:28,119 Tariff's the tariff stimulus checks are sent to Americans by 532 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,799 August of twenty twenty six. It's a twenty five percent chance. 533 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,079 That's one in four. So that's not nothing. But the 534 00:32:35,119 --> 00:32:39,440 American people right now are craving, craving some relief, and 535 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,920 at this point it doesn't look like it is coming. 536 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,880 Although I will know this twenty five percent, it is 537 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,640 greater than this six percent who say that tariffs decrease 538 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,359 prices or that five percent back in March, which are 539 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,400 just you never see one, two, three, four, five percent. 540 00:32:54,599 --> 00:32:57,720 So look, twenty five percent ain't nothing. But at this 541 00:32:57,799 --> 00:32:58,519 point it's left. 542 00:32:58,759 --> 00:33:01,839 Speaker 1: Is not going to happen. Checks, No, that's not going 543 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,839 to happen. Okay, let's talk jobs, because we got a 544 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,160 jobs report out today. I remember with the government shut down, 545 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,160 there's a big gap of a couple of months. ADP 546 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,839 comes out with private sector jobs report every month, and 547 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:22,400 it's okay. It's not considered to be as accurate as 548 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,400 the government reports, which are also considered to be kind 549 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,680 of wobbly on the accuracy level, but ADP does a 550 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,920 pretty good job and it's all we got. And so 551 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,119 they came out with their report for the month of 552 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:41,839 November and the jobs private sector lost, didn't gain, lost 553 00:33:42,119 --> 00:33:46,640 thirty two thousand jobs in the month of November. Economists 554 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,359 thought that it would be plus forty thousand. It was 555 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:54,039 a minus thirty two thousand. Almost all of the job 556 00:33:54,119 --> 00:33:59,680 losses were in small businesses. Healthcare jobs up by thirty 557 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,599 three thousand, Leisure and hospitality the bartenders and waiter waitresses 558 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,880 jobs up thirteen thousand. Most of the other sectors were down. 559 00:34:10,679 --> 00:34:14,960 Nella Richardson's a chief economist over at ADP. This is 560 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,280 what she had to say, Well, yeah, this is. 561 00:34:17,639 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 14: A small firm story. This is even more than a 562 00:34:20,039 --> 00:34:22,400 small firm story, Joe, this is a mom and pop 563 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,280 story because if you look at where the losses came in, 564 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,239 it was for firms with headcount under fifty And you 565 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,320 take that and you extrapolate it to the industries. Those 566 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,079 are the same industries construction, for example, where there are 567 00:34:35,119 --> 00:34:38,400 a lot of small firms. And so when you think 568 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,840 about what small firms are dealing with, if you put 569 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:45,239 your mind into the into the space of a small 570 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,400 firm owner, they're not going to raise their hand and 571 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,800 say we're cutting by ten percent. They're just not going 572 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,440 to replace that retired worker. They are just going to 573 00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:57,079 let attrition take care of this issue for them. They 574 00:34:57,159 --> 00:34:59,320 are going to have a hiring freeze. They may not 575 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,199 hire a teen or two in the bakery over the 576 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,360 holiday season. They're going to make these small changes that 577 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,719 add up to a lot. Because forty four percent of 578 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,239 US workers work in these mom and PopAsia. 579 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 5: What is ailing them? 580 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,079 Speaker 3: What's the tariffs? You know, you need to be able to. 581 00:35:18,039 --> 00:35:20,639 Speaker 14: Look at your consumer demand and your traffic and make 582 00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:23,679 the story. But if you're a small firm owner today, 583 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,800 you have to think about your supplier, You have to 584 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:30,280 think about the Supreme Court decision that will talk will kind. 585 00:35:30,119 --> 00:35:32,039 Speaker 2: Of pave the way for tariffs. 586 00:35:32,199 --> 00:35:34,519 Speaker 14: You're going to have to think about all these things 587 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,760 instead of just your own foot traffic. And so what 588 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,719 that means is that you may delay your decision making 589 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,559 when it comes to hiring. You don't want to pass 590 00:35:43,599 --> 00:35:46,519 along those price increases to the consumer. And there's no 591 00:35:46,599 --> 00:35:50,400 evidence that we're seeing small firms do that in lockstep. 592 00:35:50,679 --> 00:35:53,000 What they're doing is they're absorbing it, they're taking a 593 00:35:53,079 --> 00:35:56,079 profit hit, and they may be delaying or curtailing hiring. 594 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,280 Speaker 1: Okay, so the job support was weaker than expected, but 595 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:03,400 Wall Street didn't seem to phase them. The Dow. We're 596 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,719 right on the cusp of new record highs. The Dow 597 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,239 up four hundred and eight to close at forty seven 598 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:15,599 thousand and eight, eighty two, sm P up twenty, NAZDAC 599 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:20,079 up forty, Gold up fifteen dollars to forty two thirty six. 600 00:36:20,519 --> 00:36:24,639 Oil up fifty cents now at fifty nine dollars for 601 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,880 one barrel of oil. That's it for today. Thank you 602 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,840 for coming by. We will be here tomorrow hope to 603 00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:31,599 see you then