1 00:00:36,119 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: If you want to support the show and get the 2 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,719 episodes early and ad free, head on over to Freemanbeyond 3 00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:46,479 the Wall dot com forward slash Support. I want to 4 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:51,119 explain something right now. If you support me through substack 5 00:00:51,759 --> 00:00:55,840 or Patreon, you have access to an RSS feed that 6 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,359 you can plug into any podcatcher, including Apple, and you'll 7 00:01:00,399 --> 00:01:03,359 be able to listen to the episodes through there. If 8 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:06,920 you support me through a subscribe, star, gum Road or 9 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,519 on my website directly, I will send you a link 10 00:01:10,599 --> 00:01:13,000 where you can download the file and you can listen 11 00:01:13,079 --> 00:01:17,159 to it any way you wish. I really appreciate the 12 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:20,480 support everyone gives me. It keeps a show going. It 13 00:01:20,519 --> 00:01:24,079 allows me to basically put out an episode every day now, 14 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,239 and I'm not going to stop. I'm just going to accelerate. 15 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,920 I think sometimes you see that I'm putting out two 16 00:01:30,719 --> 00:01:36,200 even three a day, and yeah, can't do it without you, 17 00:01:36,879 --> 00:01:39,000 So thank you for the support. Head on over to 18 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:43,280 Freeman Beyond the Wall dot com, forward slash support and 19 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,719 do it there. Thank you. I want to welcome everyone 20 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:52,079 back to the Pekenena Show. John Fieldhouse has returned. How 21 00:01:52,079 --> 00:01:52,920 are you doing, John. 22 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 2: Jovin? 23 00:01:54,719 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: Well, sir, all right, man, let's talk about this. This 24 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:03,640 is a controversial subject. I don't think anyone that we 25 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,760 know wants to go to war with Iran. God I 26 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,520 hope not not at least people that we truly respect. 27 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,360 But something that I've been saying for over a year, 28 00:02:12,479 --> 00:02:16,240 and you know, having lee Enfield on it was over 29 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,599 a year ago, right after October seventh when they started 30 00:02:19,599 --> 00:02:23,759 talking about war with Iran. You know, we basically came 31 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,560 to the conclusion then and I haven't changed my mind 32 00:02:26,599 --> 00:02:31,159 at all, is that you can't the United States can't 33 00:02:31,199 --> 00:02:34,680 win a war with Iran, even if they're fighting alongside Israel, 34 00:02:34,719 --> 00:02:39,199 which Israel never does. I think that war with Iran 35 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:44,560 is pretty much impossible and would just be an endless quagmire. 36 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,240 So I asked you to come on to talk about it. 37 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:54,159 And people have heard yan here before. Your suggestion on 38 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:59,280 the coupdetas the look back book went over very well 39 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:04,960 and helping me and give adding context to that. People 40 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,800 have come to know you. But can you give as 41 00:03:08,879 --> 00:03:12,639 much of your background as you can on you know, 42 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,520 as far as military goes, and why you're opinion, why 43 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,280 you might have an opinion on this that people can 44 00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:18,719 listen to. 45 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,879 Speaker 2: Sure start off, John Hitfieldhouse, and before anybody asks, I 46 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:30,120 am not. I have never participated any d D pentagon 47 00:03:30,319 --> 00:03:34,240 level planning on a hypothetical invasion of Iran, and had 48 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,199 I done so, it would be a crime for me 49 00:03:36,479 --> 00:03:40,759 to discuss classified information because frequently comes up anytime we 50 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,800 discuss these things that will bring up, well, you're not 51 00:03:44,599 --> 00:03:47,240 a strategic planner who's focused on this, and my buddy is, 52 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,800 and he says it's great. Is understand that a strategic planner, 53 00:03:51,719 --> 00:03:54,639 unless something is specifically declassified, something like this is going 54 00:03:54,719 --> 00:03:56,719 to be classified, which makes it a crime to share it. 55 00:03:56,759 --> 00:03:58,479 So the only people who are going to share it 56 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,280 are people directly affiliated with the game, and therefore are 57 00:04:02,319 --> 00:04:05,560 going to show things that support whatever the regime talking 58 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,759 point of the moment is. So yet to be very clear, 59 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,719 I have never in any way participated in strategic level 60 00:04:11,719 --> 00:04:15,719 planning for a hypothetical invasion of Iran. That said, I 61 00:04:15,759 --> 00:04:20,199 am a former military officer, primarily logistics, but I've also 62 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,839 done some combat arms and some other things. I'm not 63 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,600 going to get into too much detail about those. We 64 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,720 talked about some of my academic background before, which doesn't 65 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,959 directly relate to this. Because most of my stuff's in 66 00:04:34,079 --> 00:04:37,480 organizational theory. But again, I was a military officer. I 67 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,040 have done mid level professional military education. I've been an 68 00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:46,639 instructor at professional mild level excuse me, mid level professional 69 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,519 military education where for much of the two thousands we 70 00:04:50,639 --> 00:04:55,800 used a hypothetical invasion of Iran as the war game scenario. 71 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,040 And consequently, I am not away claiming to be an 72 00:04:59,079 --> 00:05:02,480 expert on this. This is something that me, as well 73 00:05:02,519 --> 00:05:08,120 as you know, maybe a quarter of the active duty 74 00:05:08,399 --> 00:05:12,120 Army officer cohort of the time frame I was in 75 00:05:12,199 --> 00:05:14,199 have also done. Is We've done a lot of time 76 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,639 looking at what an invasion of Iran wood involved, which 77 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,279 makes us, I think, very aware of the costs and 78 00:05:21,319 --> 00:05:23,560 consequences of trying to play around with something like this. 79 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:27,079 Speaker 1: So I guess one of the things that I'll bring 80 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,920 up is I talked about when Lee Enfield was on 81 00:05:30,959 --> 00:05:34,839 the show over a year ago, and he was We 82 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,120 talked about an Army War College paper that had just 83 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:43,040 come out that basically said that the fight that Ukraine 84 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,319 had been undergoing at that time for a year and 85 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:51,800 a half, the United States wasn't even equipped manpower wise 86 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,519 to undertake. I think Lee said that the I think 87 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:01,480 the paper said that in order to do it properly 88 00:06:02,639 --> 00:06:05,879 using the men who are active right now, you probably 89 00:06:05,879 --> 00:06:08,519 have to institute a draft within three to four months, 90 00:06:09,079 --> 00:06:15,199 because that's the kind of attrition that you would suffer. So, 91 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,560 looking back on that, and knowing there hasn't really been 92 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:23,319 a run on a military enlistment in the last year, 93 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,439 what kind of manpower do you think you would need 94 00:06:28,519 --> 00:06:32,040 for an Iranian ground invasion at this point? 95 00:06:34,399 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: That's a good question. What was it Shinseki said, an 96 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,839 invasion of Iraq done properly, we probably would have required 97 00:06:42,319 --> 00:06:45,399 or was it several hundred thousand men, significantly more than 98 00:06:45,399 --> 00:06:48,319 what we actually used, and the airport didn't have enough 99 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:53,319 manpower to pacify the population afterwards. I think Iran would 100 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:58,040 require significantly more, not just manpower, but also the weapons 101 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:02,240 and equipment, and unfortunately, some of those things take even 102 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,360 longer to produce than man power, though obviously the man 103 00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:10,399 inside is much more important than the weapon. That's a 104 00:07:10,439 --> 00:07:15,000 good question. Maybe three quarters of a million. It's hard 105 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:20,360 to say. I don't even necessarily know an answer to that, 106 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,240 or would be able to give an answer to that, 107 00:07:22,279 --> 00:07:25,360 because I don't think it's feasible to in any way 108 00:07:25,519 --> 00:07:29,879 think that America today or anytime the near future would 109 00:07:29,879 --> 00:07:33,000 be able to get that amount of man power, largely 110 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:38,079 because I can't imagine anything being possible in which conscription 111 00:07:38,199 --> 00:07:43,240 could be successfully implemented for essentially a war of choice 112 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,879 in the Middle East. And even in the best case 113 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,800 scenario where you turn on hypothetically the civil or the 114 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,720 selective service system tomorrow, essentially do what happened, you know, 115 00:07:54,759 --> 00:07:57,519 the day after Pearl Harbor in the United States, It 116 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,040 takes I would say, a minimum of six months to 117 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,560 actually take those people, properly train them, integrate them into 118 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,399 units where they would be able to do their jobs. 119 00:08:09,399 --> 00:08:11,360 And that's a best case scenario. And we don't have 120 00:08:11,399 --> 00:08:13,680 a best case scenario. For instance, we have a selective 121 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,279 service system that nobody since the Carter administration has really 122 00:08:18,319 --> 00:08:22,399 thought needed to work. Therefore they haven't really maintained it. 123 00:08:23,759 --> 00:08:26,079 Not to mention, we have training facilities that it would 124 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:31,240 be very difficult to expand those every night things like that, 125 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,000 to the point it would probably take more like two 126 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,240 years to even have an army capable of doing this. 127 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:43,080 And in a world with global information technology which can 128 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,320 be used as a targeting tool. You know, that's two 129 00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:50,360 years where the enemy has a chance to disrupt you 130 00:08:50,879 --> 00:08:55,240 every or every day along the way. So it's my 131 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:59,159 long winded answer is how big. I don't think it's 132 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,200 even possible, given the amount of time it would take 133 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,639 to pull that off, to think that that could happen 134 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:05,519 in this world. 135 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's uh. We talked about American forces. What 136 00:09:12,399 --> 00:09:18,000 do you know about Iranian forces? The Yeah, it's they 137 00:09:18,039 --> 00:09:27,039 have a standing army. Obviously they have yeah. 138 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, so in fact, if I had thought about that, 139 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,639 I would have gotten numbers beforehand. So they do have 140 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:35,080 a standing army. They also have the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, 141 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,639 which involved has their own separate army, their own separate navy, 142 00:09:38,639 --> 00:09:41,039 their own separate air force. They even have a Marine 143 00:09:41,039 --> 00:09:44,879 Corps for their separate navy. They also have some law 144 00:09:44,919 --> 00:09:49,039 enforcement capacity. They had the Besiege, which is a militia 145 00:09:49,159 --> 00:09:52,600 force somewhat like a national guard that's separate from whatever 146 00:09:52,639 --> 00:09:56,480 reserve forces may exist in the regular army. And they 147 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,519 also have the Kods Force Goods is Arabic for Jerusalem, 148 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,240 which you know, which is their special forces force, which 149 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,639 are the guys who had worked with Iraqi forces during 150 00:10:07,639 --> 00:10:11,919 the fight against ISIS in Iraq. They're also the guys 151 00:10:11,919 --> 00:10:15,720 who are working with as Law, who've worked with the 152 00:10:15,759 --> 00:10:19,799 Syrian military, who have heavily worked as trainers for insurgents, 153 00:10:19,799 --> 00:10:23,480 as well as regular air forces. So yeah, you have 154 00:10:23,519 --> 00:10:26,600 the regular force, then you have the IERGC, which is 155 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:30,360 more than just you know, a one, you know, piece 156 00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:33,200 of the pie. It's like several things belong to the 157 00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:38,759 larger IERGC as well as internally, they have security forces 158 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,679 law enforcement Jonder Maris that could be used as you know, 159 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:44,960 a security force against invasion as well. 160 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: So here are just some numbers that AI is scraping 161 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:55,120 from Wikipedia and Air and Space and Space Forces Magazine, 162 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,159 Ground Force dur ndred and fifty thousand active Air Force 163 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,840 thirty seven as an active Navy, eighteen thousand Air Defense, 164 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,919 fifteen thousand, Revolutionary Guard Corps, one hundred and twenty thousand 165 00:11:08,039 --> 00:11:14,279 Elite with three hundred and fifty thousand in reserve, and 166 00:11:14,399 --> 00:11:18,080 the reserve are fully trained. So we're looking at about it. 167 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,759 This would tell me nine hundred and sixty thousand military 168 00:11:22,799 --> 00:11:24,120 personnel ready to go. 169 00:11:26,039 --> 00:11:28,399 Speaker 2: And that's what they have today. Hypothetically, if you're taking 170 00:11:28,399 --> 00:11:31,159 two years to build up combat power. Yeah, you know 171 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,360 every day along the way they get to do the 172 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:33,879 same thing. 173 00:11:35,519 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: So good. And part of why I go ahead, no, no, please. 174 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,919 Speaker 2: Why I mentioned the amount of the amount of time 175 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:46,159 that we're prepare to actually train and organize forces for 176 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:52,879 an invasion is understand that American heavy armor, so mechanized forces, 177 00:11:52,919 --> 00:11:57,519 the kind of heavy brigade combat team equipment Abrams. You know, 178 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,840 they're supporting artillery, Bradley's and what not, that kind of equipment. 179 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,279 It takes a long time to actually get them into 180 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:10,240 a theater that isn't fully developed. So interesting, complete toll, 181 00:12:11,039 --> 00:12:15,279 you know. Random fact to it is the ABRAMS is 182 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,759 there one of the largest main battle tanks in the world. 183 00:12:17,799 --> 00:12:21,320 It's not the largest probably anymore, but it was something 184 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:26,559 that was built to be bigger, heavier than most previous 185 00:12:26,639 --> 00:12:29,679 tanks of any army in any size. And that's partly 186 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,159 because for those who don't know, a lot of the 187 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:36,480 vehicle dimensions, the width, especially the axle with on most 188 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,679 vehicles comes from the fact that historic roads in Europe 189 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,840 had that with, which actually goes back to the Roman Empire, 190 00:12:43,879 --> 00:12:48,879 right that literally the design on wheeled vehicles today, you know, 191 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,399 the dimensions are heavily influenced because that's what the Roman 192 00:12:51,519 --> 00:12:57,759 Army built. Anyways, Abrams were bigger, so that it was 193 00:12:57,799 --> 00:13:00,960 done without those constraints which made them order to move around. 194 00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:06,759 Back in the Cold War war plan was, hypothetically, if 195 00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:08,679 we were fighting in the Folder Gap, we were fighting, 196 00:13:08,759 --> 00:13:13,159 you know, across the inner German border. Forces were going 197 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,440 to be located there, and there was no issue with 198 00:13:15,519 --> 00:13:18,240 strategic lift. You had your weapons systems in place. It 199 00:13:18,279 --> 00:13:21,679 was moving those into a combat zone and getting the 200 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,159 fight there. It's a very different thing when you have 201 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,000 to move them into a theater where you don't have 202 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:32,120 those weapons. We know that ninety one the first goal 203 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,240 for it took a significant amount of time. A lot 204 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:38,120 of it was just a matter of selifting that heavy 205 00:13:38,159 --> 00:13:42,519 equipment to get into the area. That's also why it 206 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,799 took almost two years to invade Iraq in two thousand 207 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:49,240 and three, is it takes a significant amount of time 208 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:54,080 to get those equipment sets into a theater that has 209 00:13:54,159 --> 00:13:57,120 not developed. And for those who don't know, if we 210 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:01,639 deploy combat team, a heavy brigade combat team today or 211 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,840 in the recent past, we don't you know, have them 212 00:14:03,879 --> 00:14:06,039 load up all their equipment and send them to combat. 213 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,440 We actually preposition weapons systems in that area. A lot 214 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,639 of this is off shore in you know, prepossession vessels, 215 00:14:14,799 --> 00:14:18,000 or they're in long term storage facilities. We fly the 216 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:22,120 people in, they fall in on that equipment, they organize, 217 00:14:22,159 --> 00:14:25,840 and they go out and prepare to fight. Now, the 218 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,039 problem with that approach is if the equipment sets aren't 219 00:14:28,039 --> 00:14:31,000 there already, as I keep repeating, is it takes a 220 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,799 long time to get them into that theater, which is 221 00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:37,679 a big part of the problem with a hypothetical war 222 00:14:37,799 --> 00:14:41,840 with Iran. Where are we going to put them? Because 223 00:14:41,879 --> 00:14:45,600 again that you know, heavily influences which direction we were 224 00:14:45,639 --> 00:14:51,080 going to invade the country from. Not to mention, it 225 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,399 really gives away to the enemy which way you're coming. 226 00:14:54,519 --> 00:14:55,320 I know, I'm rambling. 227 00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:02,159 Speaker 1: No, No, that's fine. So obviously, so let's say ground 228 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:07,120 invasion is off off the table. I think most people got. 229 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: No, it's more than it's off the table. It's the 230 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:17,600 fact that it's it would be so long to set up, 231 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,240 so expensive to set up. And again, you make yourself 232 00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:24,840 a target the longer you take right it's like cocking 233 00:15:24,879 --> 00:15:26,720 a fist in a fist fight. The other guy knows 234 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,759 you're going to hit him now, right, which is part 235 00:15:29,799 --> 00:15:32,279 the way train fighters train things like the jab. So 236 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,840 when the guy's cocking his fist for his big billy 237 00:15:34,919 --> 00:15:38,000 bad ass punch, you jab him and then you cross 238 00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:41,639 him and he goes down, you know. And it's in 239 00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:44,399 some ways it's the same concept. Is it takes a 240 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,480 long time to get those forces there. Every step along 241 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:52,639 the way is an opportunity for a competent enemy to 242 00:15:52,679 --> 00:15:57,639 get them there. And again, which direction are you going 243 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:02,120 to come in from? An you know, where you preposition 244 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:06,159 your equipment decides that and you take away a lot 245 00:16:06,159 --> 00:16:09,080 of your flexibility that way, the enemy is going to 246 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,279 have a real good idea of which direction you're coming from, 247 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,399 just by where you're prepositioning your equipment. 248 00:16:14,559 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: Well, and I think you make a really good point there, 249 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:18,759 and it's a point where we were trying to make 250 00:16:18,919 --> 00:16:25,960 last year as far as where staging areas you're not 251 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,679 going to do in Afghanistan. Turkey is not going to 252 00:16:29,679 --> 00:16:32,519 allow you to do it. Iraq, what you would have 253 00:16:32,559 --> 00:16:36,399 to reinvade Iraq, Saudi Arabia is not going to allow 254 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,919 you to do it, especially not especially not at this 255 00:16:39,039 --> 00:16:41,679 point with everything that's been going on since October seventh. 256 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,279 I mean, there was none of the stands are going 257 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,039 to allow you to do it above you can't. 258 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:52,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, Saudi Arabia involves the whole issue of an amphibious landing, 259 00:16:52,279 --> 00:16:54,039 which we can talk about, but I would say save 260 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,279 that for later because that's a whole bunch of other 261 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:02,440 issues along with it. But yeah, those areas you're not 262 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,559 going to come from Iraq if if for no other reason, 263 00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:08,920 we effectively put the shai government in charge there, and 264 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,480 every day that we're prepositioning stuff in Iraq has a 265 00:17:11,559 --> 00:17:13,720 chance for them to keep shooting at us. And if 266 00:17:13,759 --> 00:17:15,480 it has to become a situation which we have to 267 00:17:15,519 --> 00:17:19,920 forcibly attack and subdue Iraq in order to go into Iran, 268 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,279 that's why, Well, congratulations, now you were at war with 269 00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:24,599 Iraq and you haven't even gotten to Iran yet. 270 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,319 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things that a lot 271 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,319 of people who've never actually looked at a map of 272 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:38,680 Iran don't realize how perfectly situated Tehran Tehran is. 273 00:17:40,519 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, Tehran's in the northern part of the country, which 274 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,160 is weird for something that's you know, a major maritime 275 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,319 power to have their capital nowhere near the ocean. It's 276 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:54,200 on the opposite end of the country, so it's it's 277 00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:57,440 to say it's perfect, well, it's it's in a place 278 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,400 that nearly makes it impossible to it seize that capital 279 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:06,920 from the sea. For those who don't know, for most 280 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,039 of the two thousands, the wargame scenario of invading Iran, 281 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,319 and to be clear, this is a declassified scenario so 282 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:18,480 I can talk about it involved taking again the mechanized 283 00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:22,400 forces heavy forces, using two ports in Georgia in order 284 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,920 to get them into the continent, moving those forces over 285 00:18:26,039 --> 00:18:29,720 into northern Azerbaijan, which in this scenario we saw was 286 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:36,279 at least passively supportive of US forces, then inviting south 287 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,599 into the southern part of Azerbaijan, which we thought would 288 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,480 be where fighting was, and then invading into the northern 289 00:18:43,519 --> 00:18:48,119 part of Iran. And the biggest issue with that scenario 290 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,160 the reason well, first off, the fact that they used 291 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:56,799 this in a non classified, unclassified training scenario, which again 292 00:18:57,039 --> 00:18:59,759 the Azerbaijanis were enemies in the scenario, and we had 293 00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:04,279 Zerbaijani's students real world sitting in there, which again that 294 00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:07,359 tells you everything about the level of just competence we 295 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,640 have in strategic planning in the US military. But the 296 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,319 fact that this was a declassified scenario tells me that 297 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,119 nobody thought they were going to use this, or at 298 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:18,799 least it was implausible to think they were going to 299 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,759 use this. But that scenario involved, again, those two ports 300 00:19:22,759 --> 00:19:25,000 that you needed in Georgia in order to get stuff 301 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,000 in there. Those are the same two ports that Russia 302 00:19:28,039 --> 00:19:31,599 took away. And was it two thousand and nine when 303 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:35,240 they had that hasty attack or hasty operation by Russia 304 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,000 on Georgia. So again, if you don't have the ports, 305 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:39,279 you're not getting anything in there. 306 00:19:41,079 --> 00:19:48,759 Speaker 1: Is was that part of the fomenting revolutions in Georgia 307 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,720 during the two thousands to try to possibly do something 308 00:19:52,799 --> 00:19:55,400 up for the future, I'd have. 309 00:19:55,559 --> 00:19:57,599 Speaker 2: Well, I think more than likely. I mean that was 310 00:19:57,599 --> 00:20:02,079 never officially said. During the period, there was a lot 311 00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:05,680 of military cooperation between the United States and Georgia, mostly 312 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:10,799 for training. We had actual assets at those two ports. 313 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,279 I know that because I had students who were actually 314 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,400 at those ports doing terminal operations. When the Russians rolled 315 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,240 into town, which is one of the weirdest things, they 316 00:20:21,279 --> 00:20:23,640 actually said they were really nice and polite the Russian 317 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,000 commander and said, you guys got to stay on post 318 00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:29,559 tell us when your supply convoys come in, so we 319 00:20:29,559 --> 00:20:32,119 can make sure they come through. But you got to 320 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,839 stay there and we're okay, is what they told the Americans. 321 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 1: Is there any possibility of staging in Pakistan? 322 00:20:43,799 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 2: That's another thing, right, so could we I can't see 323 00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:55,440 Pakistan cooperating. Part of the problem is, since September eleventh, 324 00:20:55,720 --> 00:21:01,920 the US has played a diplomatic game of Pakistan against India. 325 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,440 And for those who don't know, the British Empire, when 326 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,519 they partitioned the former India, the Muslim parts became India 327 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,400 or became Pakistan, the rest became India, and then Pakistan 328 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,119 eventually had to split up, where Bangladesh became in its 329 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:21,720 independent country. So since September eleventh, we've had a diplomatic 330 00:21:21,759 --> 00:21:28,000 game balancing act of playing India against Pakistan. Because those 331 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,200 countries engage in armed conflict against each other, have fought 332 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,920 each other, despite the fact they're essentially cousins. They fought 333 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:39,359 themselves each other several times, and anytime the US cooperates 334 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,559 more closely with one country, it alienates the other. Now 335 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,519 all the time that we spent working in Afghanistan forced 336 00:21:46,559 --> 00:21:51,240 us to cooperate with Pakistan because heavy equipment had to 337 00:21:51,279 --> 00:21:55,440 come in through ports in Pakistan and then be shipped 338 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,720 north into Afghanistan. The last few years, the Biden has 339 00:21:59,759 --> 00:22:04,480 been stration has tried to heal the relationship with India, 340 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,920 which arguably is a good thing. You know, the world's 341 00:22:08,519 --> 00:22:10,920 first or second most populoust country. There's no reason for 342 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,160 us to have a pissing contest with them, But unfortunately 343 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,519 that goes back it damages that relationship with Pakistan again. 344 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,160 Could we stage there Maybe I don't see us doing that. 345 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,359 It's also an interesting bit of geography with the coastal 346 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:34,440 parts of Iran are fairly coastal, but within you know, 347 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,240 dozens of miles, you start having the mountains, you know, 348 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,519 rough mountains pop up and you have to cross those 349 00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:44,920 mountains and you may not have any major targets or 350 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,960 population centers until one hundred miles inland. So it's sort 351 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,000 of like the problems with the amphibious landing. If you 352 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,319 invade through Pakistan, you end up in a part of 353 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,160 the country where you still have to get through the 354 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,400 other side of the mountains, and it doesn't necess really 355 00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:02,640 help you a great deal to come from that direction. 356 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,920 So number one, I can't imagine that. Number two, even then, 357 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,759 it puts you in a situation you wouldn't want to 358 00:23:08,759 --> 00:23:10,000 be well. 359 00:23:10,039 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 1: And then you have the whole eastern side of the country, 360 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,200 all the way down to the uh to the mid 361 00:23:15,279 --> 00:23:17,960 central of the country with just a gigantic mountain range. 362 00:23:18,039 --> 00:23:20,920 So you'd have to deal with the same issue from 363 00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:25,839 Iraq from Turkey. Even if even if Israel's friend Ourzarbaijean 364 00:23:26,039 --> 00:23:28,640 was willing to help, you're still dealing with mountains. The 365 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,079 only way you're going to avoid mountains is to go 366 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,480 in from Afghanistan. And then you're I mean, what was 367 00:23:34,559 --> 00:23:36,000 that three thousand miles. 368 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 2: Which is mountains? Which is I'm sorry now, I'm sorry, 369 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,960 I kind of go which number one pack or Afghanistan 370 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,640 is mountains? You know. So it's like you're saying you're 371 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,599 avoiding the mountains. Yeah, that's relative, and it's still really bad. 372 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,079 And even then, the Taliban is probably not going to 373 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,440 give us, you know, support for invading Iran. 374 00:23:54,599 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: All right, So I mean, taking into consideration two years 375 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:03,200 prep time and everything, let's just rule everyone out. Obviously, 376 00:24:03,279 --> 00:24:07,359 Iserbaijean is friends with Israel, what would there be I 377 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:12,559 mean that would be probably outside of Turkmenistan, the closest UH, 378 00:24:12,839 --> 00:24:16,160 the closest route to Tehran, and that doesn't seem likely either. 379 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, and again that's part of the problem is hypothetically 380 00:24:20,039 --> 00:24:25,799 you could use Azerbaijean, and again the wargame scenario uses Azerbaijean, 381 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,920 so strategic planners were convinced that you could do that. 382 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:34,200 So I think that's possibly completely plausible, and it puts 383 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:39,799 you near Tehran, you know, decapitating the administration. Again, in 384 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,920 order to get stuff into Azerbaijean heavy equipment, you'd still 385 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,759 have to go through using the ports of Georgia, which 386 00:24:47,799 --> 00:24:49,559 I don't think Russia is going to allow us to 387 00:24:49,559 --> 00:24:52,960 do because again they demonstrate their ability to seize those 388 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,759 in the course of an afternoon. So if you don't 389 00:24:55,759 --> 00:24:58,119 have those ports, it doesn't necessarily matter that you go 390 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,359 through Azerbaijean because you still don't have a whipment. 391 00:25:01,279 --> 00:25:04,559 Speaker 1: All right, well, I think the next uh, I guess 392 00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:08,680 the next thing that you would go towards is very 393 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:16,000 long range air campaign. So what was the war gaming 394 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:16,279 on that? 395 00:25:16,319 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 2: Looking like, Yeah, that I've had to do a lot 396 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,839 of research outside as an Army officer. We don't necessarily 397 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,839 care about air war as long as our side winds beforehand, 398 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,720 and if we don't win, we're not going there. 399 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:36,440 Speaker 1: From the decoupled the Army Air Corps, Yeah. 400 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a reason the Marine Corps ensured that they 401 00:25:40,039 --> 00:25:45,160 retained their own aviation. They originally created the US Air Force. 402 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,720 The plan was also to give all the naval aviation 403 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:52,720 assets to them as well, and the Navy fought back 404 00:25:52,759 --> 00:25:55,119 on that, and even before the Navy won their fight, 405 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,680 the Marine Corps made it very clear they were going 406 00:25:56,759 --> 00:25:59,960 to keep their own aviation and they did so. Yeah, 407 00:26:00,039 --> 00:26:05,640 at a lot of countries that have successful, large countries 408 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,559 that have successful independent air forces, like the former Soviet 409 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:12,440 Union actually had multiple services where you'd have, you know, 410 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,599 a strategic bombing air Force, you'd have a strategic airlift 411 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,119 air force, you had a separate airlift air force just 412 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,400 for the paratroopers, and then you had, you know, an 413 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,640 air force that did close support for the army that 414 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,079 we work with them directly. And the problem is by 415 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,559 turning the air Force into the headquarters for everything, we've 416 00:26:32,599 --> 00:26:35,559 created the problem where they don't necessarily do closer air 417 00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:42,680 support with a whole lot of effectiveness. As a ground soldier, 418 00:26:42,759 --> 00:26:46,519 I have my hatred of the Air Force for a reason. 419 00:26:46,599 --> 00:26:49,359 But they're not like Marine Corps Aviation that does cast 420 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,799 very effectively. And they're still mad that we have helicopters, 421 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,720 and you know, they're really angry that we made them 422 00:26:56,799 --> 00:27:00,920 keep the AT and war Dog, which they didn't like. Like, so. 423 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,119 Speaker 1: I thought that that's one of the most badass looking 424 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,359 machines I've ever seen been up close to. 425 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, John Boyd was one of the guys who his 426 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,599 office was responsible for developing what became that, and it 427 00:27:18,759 --> 00:27:22,240 was a purpose built close air support aircraft and it's 428 00:27:22,279 --> 00:27:25,559 a great thing piece of equipment. And part of the 429 00:27:25,559 --> 00:27:29,440 problem is nobody in Air Force Acquisitions really supported a 430 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,799 second generation version of that, so they've basically tried to 431 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:36,839 make it obsolete and retire it. And I don't even 432 00:27:36,839 --> 00:27:38,480 know what the status of it is today. I think 433 00:27:38,519 --> 00:27:42,319 it's been retired, but you know, it's sort of like 434 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,039 they you know, they put their ball home and didn't 435 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,720 want to play with anybody else, and they're really angry 436 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,599 that we made them continue to operate those those planes. 437 00:27:52,759 --> 00:27:58,160 Speaker 1: All right, So how what would what would aerial etide, 438 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,160 what what would aerial warfare on Iran looked like? 439 00:28:02,519 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 2: That's a good question and this is probably the biggest 440 00:28:05,039 --> 00:28:09,680 X factor that we don't know about. And part of 441 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,519 the thing is anytime you have big revolutions in military 442 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,559 equipment and military affairs is you go through a period 443 00:28:19,599 --> 00:28:22,440 of uncertainty about what you think your equipment can do, 444 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,839 what your new weapons and taxes can do, and then 445 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,559 you actually see them in combat, and then you know, 446 00:28:27,799 --> 00:28:32,400 everything changes in light of reality. Late nineteenth century, you know, 447 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,720 machine guns, early machine guns like the Maxim gun and 448 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:39,519 the Gatling gun were developed. The British actually had huge, 449 00:28:39,559 --> 00:28:42,759 made heavy use of machine guns throughout the late nineteenth 450 00:28:42,799 --> 00:28:44,920 early and twentieth century, but they mostly used it against 451 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:50,119 tribesmen in Africa, so Arabs and black tribesmen, and a 452 00:28:50,119 --> 00:28:52,039 lot of times they were using them against people who 453 00:28:52,039 --> 00:28:56,519 are largely using fairly convention mounted or you know, close 454 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,880 order tactics, and machine guns against people march in close 455 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,440 order is just a slaughter and it worked probably as 456 00:29:05,519 --> 00:29:09,559 much as anything just to discourage uprisings. But at the 457 00:29:09,599 --> 00:29:11,839 same time, nobody really had an idea of what those 458 00:29:11,839 --> 00:29:14,039 were going to do on the Western Front when two 459 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:18,839 armies using those weapons met each other. And again early 460 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,960 nineteen fourteen the Western Front, we had engagements with incredibly 461 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,960 high number of casualties, then troops dug in. Then there 462 00:29:27,039 --> 00:29:28,559 was a race to the sea in which you had 463 00:29:28,599 --> 00:29:33,559 the huge trench lines going from it was the English 464 00:29:33,599 --> 00:29:37,119 Channel all the way down to Switzerland, and you know, 465 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,880 long periods of trying to break the stalemate of the trenches. 466 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:44,640 And I think it's very plausibly with changes in aviation 467 00:29:44,799 --> 00:29:47,240 and drones in particular, that we're seeing something like that 468 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,599 in Ukraine. We've had a lot of incidences where we 469 00:29:53,119 --> 00:29:57,559 know that American armor and you know, mechanized tanks and 470 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,839 infantry fighting vehicles are no near as good as we 471 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,160 thought they were. As soon as you take away air supremacy, 472 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,240 if you take away air cover, you know, tanks and 473 00:30:06,279 --> 00:30:09,319 Bradley's and things like that suddenly become very easy to 474 00:30:09,359 --> 00:30:16,039 destroy or at least disable. And you know, it's also 475 00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:20,519 become very hard to maintain air supremacy because of you know, 476 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,960 man portable shoulder fire anti aircraft systems, things like the 477 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,359 American Stinger. So we're in a situation where it's really 478 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,680 hard to maintain air supremacy. You can create a situation 479 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:38,039 where basically everything that flies dies and suddenly that forces 480 00:30:38,119 --> 00:30:43,319 how the ground war changes. So that's part of the 481 00:30:43,319 --> 00:30:45,799 the you know again, this is all X factor, and 482 00:30:45,839 --> 00:30:48,759 I'm saying that there are changes here that we don't 483 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:53,559 entirely know yet, and I encourage caution because of that. 484 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,079 So the Iranian Air Force, you know, they started off, 485 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,680 or at least the Rerepublics started off with you know 486 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,079 stuff the Shawst Air Force had. They had F fourteen's, 487 00:31:04,519 --> 00:31:07,039 they had some other American fighters. They didn't have the 488 00:31:07,039 --> 00:31:11,839 first generation of avionics, targeting stuff. A lot of cases, 489 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,000 they never updated their stuff, and they're using third party repairs, 490 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,200 so they don't necessarily have very good you know, targeting 491 00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:24,279 and communications and radar stuff for those weapons systems, which 492 00:31:24,319 --> 00:31:26,599 a lot of their planes are fairly out of date 493 00:31:26,759 --> 00:31:29,720 by now, so it may not matter. But we do 494 00:31:29,839 --> 00:31:32,440 know that they have some amount of anti aircraft stuff, 495 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:36,240 and the fact that the American pissing contests with both 496 00:31:36,319 --> 00:31:40,319 Russia and China has forced the Bricks to share a 497 00:31:40,359 --> 00:31:43,519 great amount of military technology. We don't know how much, 498 00:31:43,599 --> 00:31:46,640 but there is a level of military cooperation there, which 499 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,160 again is unknown, which leaves a lot of room for 500 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,720 potential threat. So what anti aircraft systems have the Russians 501 00:31:54,759 --> 00:31:57,720 provided with them? More importantly, what anti aircraft systems would 502 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,519 the Russians provide for them? And the answer is we 503 00:32:02,599 --> 00:32:07,880 don't know, and all of them could be bad, which 504 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,720 means that there's a very high possibility that they could 505 00:32:11,839 --> 00:32:16,960 kill aircraft that we have that we've never really forecasted losing. 506 00:32:17,559 --> 00:32:19,599 Because again, one of the common themes of the US 507 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:24,119 military is, yes, we're incredibly powerful, we don't necessarily have 508 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:29,960 the ability to absorb casualties. The ability to have min 509 00:32:30,079 --> 00:32:35,119 weapons and equipment destroyed, are captured or disabled, and to 510 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,839 continue to fight as reorganize around your casualties is a 511 00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:42,039 fairly hard thing to do. And you know the fact 512 00:32:42,039 --> 00:32:47,400 that we don't really have to practice doing that, we 513 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,000 may have difficulties working around that. So hypothetically, it's not 514 00:32:51,039 --> 00:32:52,839 just what we lose in aircraft, it's our ability to 515 00:32:52,839 --> 00:32:56,880 continue to function as cohesive units. After that, the other 516 00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:00,920 thing is drones. How effective are there drones? How effective 517 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,079 with the drones that Rush or China would provide them 518 00:33:03,279 --> 00:33:08,799 with be And again, drones hypothetically used drones to fight 519 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,839 fighter aircraft. It's important to understand you don't need them 520 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,119 to be great dog fighters. You don't even necessarily need 521 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,480 them to be great with missile technology. If you can 522 00:33:17,559 --> 00:33:20,640 with some degree of accuracy fly those things into your planes, 523 00:33:20,839 --> 00:33:24,440 using drones is then just you know, run them into aircraft. 524 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:28,279 You could probably knock down a fair amount of fighters, 525 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,880 and especially the reality is if you're a drone controller 526 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,920 and drone pilot, you're not going to die when you 527 00:33:35,039 --> 00:33:38,079 ram that other enemy aircraft, so you don't necessarily care. 528 00:33:39,839 --> 00:33:44,599 So there's a high degree of possibility that Iran could 529 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:50,559 inflict casualties on a long range aviation attack and that 530 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:54,240 those things could really mess up in attacking force. 531 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: So the things that I had heard recently at camera 532 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,000 I think might have been from Larry Johnson that they 533 00:34:03,079 --> 00:34:09,119 definitely had Russian S three hundred systems. The I think, 534 00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:12,239 what is their version of the C one thirty is 535 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,760 at the A N twelve cub Is that what he said, 536 00:34:16,599 --> 00:34:18,320 I don't know, it's something like that. A couple of 537 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:23,440 them landed full fully loaded three or four months ago 538 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,280 in Tehran, which probably he thinks had the S four hundred, 539 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,239 and then there's actually talk that there's actually an S 540 00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:36,679 five hundred and S five fifty now and properly when 541 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,920 you take into consideration the mountainous terrain and everything properly placed. 542 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,480 I mean it really it goes to show why when 543 00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:50,039 Israel launched their assault recently, they really didn't do much damage. 544 00:34:50,039 --> 00:34:54,400 I think there was one civilian died for for military personnel, 545 00:34:55,000 --> 00:35:00,920 and the damage that's being reported has really been minimal. 546 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:05,320 And I've actually seen footage of a lot of their 547 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,800 a lot of what they launched. They're just being taken 548 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,039 down and taken right out of the sky. 549 00:35:11,199 --> 00:35:15,639 Speaker 2: Yeah. Number one again back to the military cooperation with 550 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,320 the Bricks country. I'm one hundred percent certain it's happening, 551 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,679 But what do we know about those Like you said, 552 00:35:22,679 --> 00:35:25,239 there's a couple of landings where as far as we 553 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,199 can tell, anti aircraft systems we're landing. I'm largely skeptical 554 00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,280 of anything that comes out in American media about what 555 00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,840 the Russian military is doing, just because everything the American 556 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,199 media has been so inaccurate. I'm sure, I'm one hundred 557 00:35:39,199 --> 00:35:42,320 percent certain that Iran wants Russia to provide those assets. 558 00:35:42,599 --> 00:35:44,800 I think it's more likely than not that Russia has 559 00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,519 provided those assets, but which assets, I don't know. It 560 00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:51,760 could be a lot, especially if they have next generation 561 00:35:52,159 --> 00:35:57,960 shoulder fire weapon systems. So yeah, my big caution there 562 00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:59,880 would be they probably have a lot more than we 563 00:36:00,079 --> 00:36:03,079 think they have, especially if they're small enough and they 564 00:36:03,079 --> 00:36:05,719 can be dismantled. You could potentially put them on you know, 565 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,199 civilian airliners. You can even put them on regular passenger 566 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,199 planes and break down the components to ship them in cargo. 567 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,559 So things like that are completely possible where they would 568 00:36:15,599 --> 00:36:18,519 have a lot more stuff than we think, not to 569 00:36:18,559 --> 00:36:22,039 mention the potential to move stuff in there directly from Russia. 570 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,079 And again, like you said, the mountains are good for 571 00:36:28,119 --> 00:36:32,440 covering concealment, especially if you don't control anything around those mountains. 572 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,320 This isn't like Afghanistan where for twenty years, Yeah, we 573 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,960 didn't necessarily control the key mountains, but we had some points, 574 00:36:38,039 --> 00:36:40,159 and we had some forces in the area, and we 575 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,800 had some idea of the geography. Iran would be completely 576 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:50,280 different that circumstance where we wouldn't know. So yeah, it's 577 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,000 everything you said, but to a degree much higher than 578 00:36:54,039 --> 00:36:57,400 we would anticipate, meaning you're right, and it's probably a 579 00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:58,519 lot worse than you think. 580 00:37:00,039 --> 00:37:05,039 Speaker 1: And then not to mention the fact that their missile technology, 581 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,960 which we don't really know a lot about, but we've 582 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:13,920 seen the Huthis launch missiles at Israel that have been 583 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:20,159 reported to turn ninety degrees in mid air. So we 584 00:37:22,079 --> 00:37:28,119 what exactly do we know about Iranian technology and what 585 00:37:28,159 --> 00:37:29,400 they can do to fight back. 586 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,519 Speaker 2: That's a good question. I haven't seen anything declassified on that. 587 00:37:33,519 --> 00:37:39,360 Excuse me, So I've seen very little or nothing declassified 588 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:43,119 on that. So what do we know? We definitely know 589 00:37:43,159 --> 00:37:47,840 they can do long range target thing with some degree 590 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,960 of precision. The fact that you know they drop stuff. 591 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:56,599 That was it the Iraqi airfield that we had an 592 00:37:56,679 --> 00:37:57,760 American personnel that. 593 00:37:58,559 --> 00:38:01,119 Speaker 1: I think that was in twenty twenty, right after so money. 594 00:38:01,199 --> 00:38:03,559 Speaker 2: I was on that base. So I feel bad that 595 00:38:03,599 --> 00:38:04,960 I don't remember on the top of my head because 596 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,800 I was stationed at that base at one point. So 597 00:38:08,639 --> 00:38:11,360 all indications are if they did they missed on purpose 598 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,880 where they were demonstrating their ability to target and they 599 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:19,239 didn't miss, and they intentionally shot a warning shot demonstrating 600 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:23,119 that they could shoot things, just like the most. 601 00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 1: Recent Saving Face for the for the attack. 602 00:38:26,639 --> 00:38:29,159 Speaker 2: I think it's exactly what they did. They were demonstrating 603 00:38:29,199 --> 00:38:31,199 to all sides that they could do this and that 604 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,280 they would do this if they had to, but that 605 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,360 they didn't want to escalate further. That's my understanding, my interpretation. 606 00:38:38,639 --> 00:38:42,079 So it's more than just saving face. They're demonstrating to 607 00:38:42,199 --> 00:38:45,119 America that they could do this, but they're choosing not to, 608 00:38:45,679 --> 00:38:50,599 which is a you know, a very different level of 609 00:38:50,639 --> 00:38:55,079 restraint that Americans are used to. The thought is that 610 00:38:55,159 --> 00:39:00,400 those those massive attacks by Iran against Israel, those large 611 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,400 missile attacks, that they were probably used as a reconnaissance 612 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,039 and force number one. There seems to be a fairly 613 00:39:07,119 --> 00:39:10,360 high dud rate on the Iranian missiles, which suggests that 614 00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,920 they were using old stocks a munitions stuff that they 615 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,039 had to get rid of anyway that they were firing, 616 00:39:16,119 --> 00:39:18,960 and they were targeting them in such a way that 617 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:24,760 they could observe Israeli missile defense in order to get 618 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,840 their tactics down, in order to find their launch points 619 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:33,320 in order to build data for future attacks, which I 620 00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:37,519 think is highly likely. It's also the kind of complexity 621 00:39:37,559 --> 00:39:42,880 that Iranians are known for, so they have that kind 622 00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,679 of targeting capacity, and they probably have it to a 623 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:52,679 much greater degree of precision than anything in the US military. 624 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:57,000 Long range precision missile artillery is not something the US 625 00:39:57,039 --> 00:39:59,880 military is very good at. 626 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,800 Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about that. So a lot 627 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,159 of people look at Iran as like this backwards country, 628 00:40:06,199 --> 00:40:09,760 these backwards people, their women still have to wear head 629 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,119 coverings and things like that, and they just basically assume 630 00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:16,920 that they don't have they don't have any scientists there. 631 00:40:17,639 --> 00:40:20,360 Anything that they would be using, they would be it 632 00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,320 were being supplied from somewhere else, like Russia and everything 633 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,039 like that. So what do you know about their their 634 00:40:26,119 --> 00:40:28,320 capabilities as far as their. 635 00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:35,679 Speaker 2: The culture and technology was. Yeah, well, the country historically 636 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,760 was called Persia. Then the last Shaw's father, so the 637 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,280 second last Shaw, when he took charge, renamed it as Iran. 638 00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:47,880 Haran literally means the land of the Arians. And like 639 00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,679 a lot of well it wasn't a colonial site, but 640 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:55,239 a lot of sites going through decolonization, there's the whole 641 00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,559 fight about whether or not the culture should represent the 642 00:40:57,559 --> 00:41:01,079 dominant ethnic group or multiple ethnic groups. By naming Iran, 643 00:41:01,599 --> 00:41:04,079 it was essentially saying it's not just for Persians, it's 644 00:41:04,079 --> 00:41:06,800 for all the other minority people who who are there 645 00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,280 as well, just as in aside, ethnic Persians only make 646 00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:13,960 up about sixty percent of the Iranian population. You've got 647 00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:17,400 some Arabs, We've got Kurds, You've got a Luki's, You've 648 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:22,000 got lots of people of very different, various relations apparently, 649 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:27,159 you know, it's it's a diverse country. There was a 650 00:41:27,199 --> 00:41:31,000 great deal of a great amount of modernization that occurred 651 00:41:31,079 --> 00:41:34,920 under the Pulavi dynasty. Education was brought in, you know, famously, 652 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:39,079 We've all seen, you know, the photos from the fifties 653 00:41:39,079 --> 00:41:44,920 and sixties of women in many skirts in Iran. Iran 654 00:41:45,199 --> 00:41:47,719 or Persians especially, but also Kurds and some of the 655 00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,159 other ethnic groups are a little unusual in the fact 656 00:41:51,199 --> 00:41:55,719 that they're simultaneously. They have a reputation for being both 657 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,840 very religious in the practice of shiaid Islam, will you know, 658 00:42:00,079 --> 00:42:03,960 being very worldly in how they lived their life, which 659 00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,960 it is really hard to compare them to something maybe 660 00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,840 like old school Italian Americans, who are you know, very Catholic, 661 00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,639 but that's never stopped and stood in the way of 662 00:42:13,679 --> 00:42:17,039 them being able to deal with reality in places the 663 00:42:17,079 --> 00:42:19,960 priests may not like you know, I don't mean that 664 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:25,159 as an assault. The Catholics are Italians, so they had 665 00:42:25,599 --> 00:42:31,199 a fairly modern education system that was trying to modernize 666 00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:38,800 the culture. They had modern universities that which were established 667 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:43,440 with Western support, mostly British, some American. A lot of 668 00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,440 them do a lot of English language education because again, 669 00:42:47,519 --> 00:42:49,719 stim training is only done in so many languages in 670 00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,440 the world, and English is one of them. So lots 671 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,000 of you know, what we'd call third world countries, the 672 00:42:55,039 --> 00:42:58,679 actually educated people speak fluent English because that's what they 673 00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,840 need to do in order to to do a stem 674 00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:06,239 education to go become an engineer or whatnot. There was 675 00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,320 after the Iranian Revolution, there was a you know, there 676 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,400 was a big purging in the beginning where many of 677 00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:15,880 the Shaws loyalists, loyalists were removed, but that didn't necessarily 678 00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,639 damage the educated or yeah, it didn't necessarily remove the 679 00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:26,159 educated factor in society because the revolution, the Iranian Revolution 680 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,039 wasn't even really an Islamist revolution in the beginning so 681 00:43:29,119 --> 00:43:32,760 much as there was an anti Shaw revolution amongst people 682 00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:37,199 who were Shiites, and you know, became a site revolution 683 00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,360 because Comania was the only guy who could unite the factions. 684 00:43:41,039 --> 00:43:44,239 So a lot of they're educated. People weren't taken out. 685 00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,239 Like I said, students were a huge part of the revolution, 686 00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,079 so you had lots of you know, lots of people 687 00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:53,599 with higher education, some guys with PhDs and whatnot, but 688 00:43:53,639 --> 00:43:57,679 a lot of people stem education. So my point here 689 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:02,360 is these are not monkeys living in caves. These are 690 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,280 people that a large strateg or society is very educated. 691 00:44:08,679 --> 00:44:12,480 A large part of contemporary Iran is urban, either urban 692 00:44:12,599 --> 00:44:16,719 or they live in you know, a greater metropolis metropolitan area, 693 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,440 meaning they live in essentially what would be suburbs or 694 00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,320 even rural areas there, you know, within a half day 695 00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:27,320 drive of a major city. So these are not you know, 696 00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:29,840 bumpkins in the middle of nowhere. Even in the places 697 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:31,360 where they may be in the middle of nowhere, they 698 00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,280 have a fair amount of ability to travel. The fact 699 00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:38,159 that the country has oil means they have a fair amount 700 00:44:38,199 --> 00:44:41,280 of electricity and power of different sources, which means you 701 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:46,280 can have computers. Anecdotally, I could know when I was 702 00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,480 purchasing things as a purchasing agent for the Iraqi Army, 703 00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,440 we imported a lot of our goods from Iran, So 704 00:44:54,159 --> 00:44:55,920 I can tell you for a fact, computers are easy 705 00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,360 to come by in Iran, even though we had embargoes 706 00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:03,599 against Iran and we bought stuff from Iran. The fact 707 00:45:03,639 --> 00:45:05,760 that they're working closer with Russia means that there's lots 708 00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:07,320 of things they can get down they couldn't get in 709 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,519 the past. So it's this idea that they're living in 710 00:45:10,559 --> 00:45:13,920 the caves like the Taliban were in two thousand and 711 00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:17,480 one is not in any way accurate about Iran. 712 00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:23,320 Speaker 1: What about their manufacturing of weapons specifically? You know what 713 00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,000 lot Wock talks about, where if you're if you have 714 00:45:27,039 --> 00:45:30,119 to import your own weapons, if you have to if 715 00:45:30,159 --> 00:45:33,119 you have to rely upon someone else, you're basically you 716 00:45:33,199 --> 00:45:35,880 become a slave to them. Do you know what their 717 00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,079 manufacturing level is? 718 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:40,920 Speaker 2: That's a good question that I only know a little bit, 719 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,320 and I should have prepared better for that. I know 720 00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,199 they can manufacture small arms. I know that ak's have 721 00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:52,400 been made there before. I know munitions have been manufactured 722 00:45:52,519 --> 00:45:56,480 in various degrees there. I assume that's a fairly easy 723 00:45:56,519 --> 00:45:59,719 part of their their industry. Since if you don't necessarily 724 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:05,159 have currency, don't have hard currency that you know, manufacturing 725 00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:09,519 munitions is a really quick way to make money. Towards 726 00:46:09,519 --> 00:46:14,079 a more expensive country or more economically developed countries around you. 727 00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,960 I don't know about their ability to produce like aviation 728 00:46:20,119 --> 00:46:25,880 assets or hire an armor equipment or missile systems and whatnot, 729 00:46:26,039 --> 00:46:30,440 so but I musto not necessarily I wouldn't necessarily be 730 00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,519 worried about that if I were them, just because an 731 00:46:32,519 --> 00:46:37,039 alliance with Russia means you can get those things. You 732 00:46:37,079 --> 00:46:39,960 also potentially have the ability to trade things for them 733 00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:44,519 that they are going to find valuable. So that answers 734 00:46:44,519 --> 00:46:45,519 your question well. 735 00:46:46,039 --> 00:46:49,800 Speaker 1: Also taking into consideration consideration the spirit of my question, 736 00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,719 if they are relying on Russia for so much, how 737 00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,400 how much of a suede does Russia hold on them? 738 00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,400 In your opinion, that's. 739 00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,079 Speaker 2: A good question. I think Russia could exercise a great 740 00:47:05,119 --> 00:47:13,000 deal of sway over them if they wanted to, I know, well, 741 00:47:13,079 --> 00:47:16,159 especially if they're providing anti aircraft system So the short 742 00:47:16,159 --> 00:47:21,480 answer is probably a lot. Russia has not directly forced 743 00:47:21,519 --> 00:47:24,760 a whole lot of things other than trying to see 744 00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:30,000 greater alliances with those countries against the United States and 745 00:47:31,039 --> 00:47:34,840 setting up you know, mutual trade systems, you know, such 746 00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:39,920 as you know, getting outside the American banking credit system, 747 00:47:40,519 --> 00:47:42,400 My guess is they probably have a lot of sway 748 00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:45,039 over them, since you know, Russia was completely locked out 749 00:47:45,039 --> 00:47:47,800 of Western markets and they've worked with other countries to 750 00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:50,880 create alternative systems, and Iran has been locked out for 751 00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,000 it was a decade plus now, so they have every 752 00:47:54,039 --> 00:47:58,440 reason to cooperate. So I imagine there's probably a lot 753 00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,199 more influence than we've seen so far. It's also a 754 00:48:02,199 --> 00:48:07,000 situation where Putin, for all of his talk of him 755 00:48:07,039 --> 00:48:09,760 as being an overbearing dictator, and I don't necessarily have 756 00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:14,199 any love loss for him, but he's he has demonstrated 757 00:48:14,199 --> 00:48:17,639 the ability to be to exercise sort of a soft 758 00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:22,239 touch with people that he's influencing, meaning that he'll more 759 00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:27,360 request and cooperate for things than trying to force compliance 760 00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,960 on things, which ironically is sort of the American way 761 00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,800 of doing diplomacy, despite the fact we say otherwise. So 762 00:48:34,599 --> 00:48:38,440 I think Russia could probably exercise a great deal of 763 00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,000 influence and probably has more influence than we've seen so far. 764 00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:47,199 Speaker 1: When you say that, it's pretty easy to understand that 765 00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:55,000 if Ukraine wasn't so captured and under NATO and other influences, 766 00:48:55,679 --> 00:48:58,760 how he would have a soft touch with them. How 767 00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,639 he would, he'd have no problem with diplomacy, and it 768 00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,920 looks like, you know, in two thousand and nine diploma 769 00:49:06,039 --> 00:49:09,679 diplomacy has gone really well with them until obviously the coup. 770 00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, and my position on the Ukraine War is I 771 00:49:14,159 --> 00:49:17,000 don't take either side there. I know lots of guys 772 00:49:17,079 --> 00:49:19,760 on our or in our sphere like to take Russia 773 00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,679 aside by default. I don't do that. And I actually 774 00:49:22,679 --> 00:49:26,800 have an immense amount of admiration for Ukrainians. I do 775 00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,400 think that by cooperating with the West, they're doing things 776 00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:33,519 that are detrimental to them in the long run. I 777 00:49:33,559 --> 00:49:37,400 think the war in Ukraine is an unfortunate consequence of 778 00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:43,559 American overbearing behavior which has forced the dichotomy between Russian 779 00:49:43,559 --> 00:49:46,119 and Ukraine and which people which killed a lot of 780 00:49:46,119 --> 00:49:53,800 people we claim to care about. So, Yeah, the Slavic 781 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,199 parts of the former Soviet Union and before that the 782 00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:03,079 Russian Empire have an enter seeing history. It's like history. Historically, 783 00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,400 the the ethnic Russian people, the Rowski people, as opposed 784 00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,239 to just the people who were citizens of Russia. Traditionally, 785 00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,000 they referred to themselves as greater Russians, with the idea 786 00:50:12,039 --> 00:50:15,760 that Ukrainians and bel Russians were you know, you know, 787 00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:20,760 other varieties of Russian cousins. So yeah, there's a huge 788 00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:24,360 amount of connection there, which you know, the fall of 789 00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:28,119 the Soviet Union in post World War two or yeah, 790 00:50:28,559 --> 00:50:33,960 post Cold War geopolitics is you know, created a cleavage 791 00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:38,039 between those related peoples that the probably wouldn't have existed otherwise. 792 00:50:38,519 --> 00:50:40,920 And again, I do not deny the existence of the 793 00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:45,159 Ukrainian people like some do, but I also think the 794 00:50:45,199 --> 00:50:48,639 fact that America has claimed to support Ukrainians has killed 795 00:50:48,639 --> 00:50:50,360 a lot of Ukrainians. 796 00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:56,079 Speaker 1: All right, well, it seems that Israel, you know what, 797 00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:02,119 Iran has been there. They're one month away from having 798 00:51:02,159 --> 00:51:05,920 a nuke for what thirty thirty five years now, and. 799 00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:09,960 Speaker 2: Scott Worton has said they've been like six months away 800 00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:10,840 for twelve years now. 801 00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:18,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, so all of this belicosity towards them, it relies 802 00:51:19,039 --> 00:51:22,679 upon the United States getting involved. And then you're saying 803 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,000 that this would be it would take two years to 804 00:51:26,199 --> 00:51:32,360 even get this prepared for an invasion and then the invasion. 805 00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:40,519 So it's conservative conservatively, So what is does Israel really 806 00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:42,920 in your opinion, does Israel really think that this is 807 00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:44,840 going to happen, that they can they can do this 808 00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:46,719 or is there something else going on here? 809 00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,079 Speaker 2: In tided to think there's something. I think a lot 810 00:51:52,119 --> 00:51:56,039 of this has to do with men Yahoo essentially flailing 811 00:51:56,199 --> 00:51:58,559 in order to stay in power. I think he's behaving 812 00:51:58,639 --> 00:52:02,440 like a cornered animal. Because when this war ends, even 813 00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,639 in the besket the excuse me, the fighting and Israel ends, 814 00:52:08,079 --> 00:52:10,280 more than likely Netnah who's going to be indicted and 815 00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,119 they're probably going to put him in prison this time, 816 00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,000 and because of his age, he'll probably die in prison. 817 00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,760 And I think even if it ends on very good terms, 818 00:52:19,199 --> 00:52:24,559 that's extremely likely to happen. So again, I think Netnah 819 00:52:24,599 --> 00:52:28,079 who's behaving like a cornered animal, and a lot of 820 00:52:28,119 --> 00:52:33,239 it's driven by his behavior. I doubt that anybody in 821 00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:36,760 the IDF thinks that a land war, a land invasion, 822 00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:41,599 conquest of Iran is possible at all. You know, maybe 823 00:52:41,639 --> 00:52:44,840 in two thousand and two, before we invaded Iraq, we 824 00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,760 thought that that could happen, and we were in just 825 00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:51,840 move u US forces into Iran, but reality proved otherwise. 826 00:52:53,639 --> 00:52:56,639 Obviously Israel wouldn't go send its own forces. They have 827 00:52:56,679 --> 00:52:58,960 a hard time getting their the reservists to go and 828 00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:00,679 fight in the West Bank and the guys a strip. 829 00:53:01,079 --> 00:53:04,800 They're definitely not going to go fight in Iran. I 830 00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,199 don't think the United States will ever have the ability 831 00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,920 to wage that kind of offensive war ever. Again, I 832 00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:15,239 don't see people sending their sons away, especially in a 833 00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,320 world where people only have one child. So it's not 834 00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,639 just the the population growth issue. It's the fact that 835 00:53:21,679 --> 00:53:24,440 you know, most parents today only have one or two children, 836 00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:28,639 and you're not trying to you know, kill your child, 837 00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,119 your only son, and your neighbor's only son in order 838 00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,519 to you know, piss shit away. For people who aren't 839 00:53:34,519 --> 00:53:37,880 willing to fight for themselves and have to create conflict 840 00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:42,199 with everybody in their world, what do they really want? 841 00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,519 I think a lot of this is about buying time, 842 00:53:44,599 --> 00:53:52,280 and I think that I think that people under existential threat, 843 00:53:53,159 --> 00:53:56,119 which you know nan Yahoo and the potential of going 844 00:53:56,159 --> 00:53:58,639 to prison, I don't think they behave rationally, and I 845 00:53:58,639 --> 00:53:59,760 think that explains a lot. 846 00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:08,800 Speaker 1: So with Trump now picking his cabinet, and he's definitely 847 00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,559 the few picks that you know, we were even talking 848 00:54:11,599 --> 00:54:18,199 about before we started recording aren't good because just just 849 00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,800 because it seems like they're they're all friendly to Israel 850 00:54:22,559 --> 00:54:25,639 the three or four so far right now as of recording. 851 00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:31,800 But this still doesn't really what people When you hear 852 00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,400 people complaining about this, you hear them complaining about it 853 00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:38,119 because we don't want to go to war with their Ran. 854 00:54:39,079 --> 00:54:40,960 So what I'm trying, what I'm trying to do, but 855 00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:46,119 I have this conversation with you, is showing people that 856 00:54:46,119 --> 00:54:50,039 that's not that's not the issue. That's completely off the table. 857 00:54:50,639 --> 00:54:57,239 Everyone knows it, and you know, other than somebody starting 858 00:54:57,239 --> 00:55:02,800 to launch nukes, we we need to shift our still 859 00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,960 pay attention to what's going on with this insane alliance 860 00:55:07,039 --> 00:55:09,519 we have with this little shitty state in the Middle East. 861 00:55:10,639 --> 00:55:12,679 But this isn't going to be about it Ran. 862 00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I would say a bit more than anything, 863 00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,480 it's important that the politicians who represent us. And again 864 00:55:21,519 --> 00:55:25,000 democracy is bullshit and we know it doesn't really work. 865 00:55:25,079 --> 00:55:28,039 But the fact that Trump just got in power on 866 00:55:28,119 --> 00:55:31,840 the you know, because of populist support, he's at least 867 00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:35,719 open to understanding what his base cares about. And we 868 00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:38,840 have to make it understand that Trump understand that you 869 00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:42,360 can't do this. The war with Iran can't happen. And 870 00:55:44,079 --> 00:55:46,679 a lot again, I prepped with Bill Buebert from Chasing 871 00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,239 Ghosts podcasts for a lot of this. Among the conversations 872 00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:57,920 we had this morning was the American military right now 873 00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:01,519 is essentially divided between two world views. A lot of 874 00:56:01,599 --> 00:56:05,480 what the Obama and Biden era did was essentially put 875 00:56:05,599 --> 00:56:11,320 woke officers, you know, everybody's favorite pet, subjugated groups into 876 00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:15,599 the military and higher levels as a sort of purge 877 00:56:15,639 --> 00:56:18,039 of the officer cord, the general officer cord of the 878 00:56:18,119 --> 00:56:22,760 army to make it less right wing. And unfortunately, so 879 00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:26,079 much of the counter reaction against that in the military 880 00:56:26,159 --> 00:56:28,760 and America's supporters just think, no, we're America and we 881 00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,639 can go fight the world. So the response to woke, 882 00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:33,960 unfortunately a lot of times, is saying, let's go and invade, 883 00:56:34,519 --> 00:56:39,480 you know, let's start World War three. And part of 884 00:56:39,519 --> 00:56:42,719 what I'm trying to fight is, you know, people released 885 00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:45,960 culturally on our side, trying to get them to understand 886 00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:52,639 that war with Iran will be existentially devastating to America. 887 00:56:53,119 --> 00:56:57,039 You know, from Appalachia, Greater Appalachian, from the South. You know, 888 00:56:57,079 --> 00:56:59,360 people like me die in these wars. I don't want 889 00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:03,599 people like me to die, so especially so certain classes 890 00:57:03,599 --> 00:57:06,639 and cultures of people who hate us can go in 891 00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:10,119 a rural world rule the ashes of the world after 892 00:57:10,159 --> 00:57:15,360 we've you know, bled and died for them. I also 893 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,400 want to make sure that people on our side, everybody 894 00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,679 on our side, understands that war isn't free, right. People die, 895 00:57:22,039 --> 00:57:24,400 And everybody said, yeah, of course not. It's like, no, 896 00:57:24,519 --> 00:57:27,599 America hasn't fought a real world against a real enemy 897 00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,039 in a very long time. And I remind people, even 898 00:57:30,119 --> 00:57:33,079 during World War Two, you know, something like eighty percent 899 00:57:33,159 --> 00:57:36,760 of the wehrmachs cow'shuildings were inflicted by the Soviet army. 900 00:57:37,119 --> 00:57:40,079 You know, the reality is the United States provided a 901 00:57:40,119 --> 00:57:42,960 lot of logistics and then opened up the Second Front 902 00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,800 to play Kate Stalin in the course of a world war. 903 00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:50,280 That we made the world safe for Stalinism. So world 904 00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,599 War two we were kind of like we were sort 905 00:57:53,599 --> 00:57:57,360 of like the kick return team of World War two, right, 906 00:57:57,480 --> 00:57:59,920 I mean, of the Allies, we thought, but we were 907 00:58:00,119 --> 00:58:02,559 not quite the front line starting lineup. 908 00:58:02,679 --> 00:58:04,440 Speaker 1: And it wasn't like the Pacific Theater. 909 00:58:06,079 --> 00:58:09,519 Speaker 2: It wasn't like the Pacific Theater. And I'm not degrading 910 00:58:09,559 --> 00:58:13,480 anybody's contribution and their sacrifice and the dead are equally dead, 911 00:58:13,519 --> 00:58:16,280 no matter where they fought and against who they fought. 912 00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:21,079 But understand that World War two, the Western Front, European Front, 913 00:58:21,159 --> 00:58:23,880 we did not fight the war that we seem to 914 00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:27,360 think we fought. And unfortunately, war with Iran could mean 915 00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:31,239 that it could be against an army that is entrenched, 916 00:58:31,559 --> 00:58:33,800 which has a fair amount of support. And despite the 917 00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:36,840 fact that people say that they hate the Islamist regime 918 00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:40,679 in Iran, invading their country will change that immediately. You know, 919 00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:44,039 when gang banners come into your neighborhood, suddenly your next 920 00:58:44,079 --> 00:58:46,760 door neighbor, you may not like you're willing to cooperate 921 00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:51,639 within the fight the intruders, and we could create that situation. 922 00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:57,199 And my biggest fear is Iran is some dipshit trying 923 00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,000 to do things invading because they don't know any better, 924 00:59:00,079 --> 00:59:02,880 which is a real fear I had with Kamala getting 925 00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:05,280 in there. And as soon as our forces get bogged down, 926 00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,559 we're bogged down in sort of like an Eastern Front 927 00:59:08,599 --> 00:59:10,800 scenario in World War Two where we're slugging it out 928 00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,320 for an extended period, except now we're doing that in 929 00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,440 the war in the world where there are nuclear weapons 930 00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:20,719 on the table. So again, when I'm rambling here to 931 00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,800 everybody saying, look war with Iran without any better wor 932 00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:27,840 sorry for my profanity, but it's fucking stupid and people 933 00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:29,719 like me and you are going to die, and they're 934 00:59:29,719 --> 00:59:33,320 going to die for the people we hate. So let's 935 00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,519 not do that. And that's what I'm trying to say 936 00:59:36,559 --> 00:59:38,599 to everybody. And I apologize for my profanity. 937 00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,559 Speaker 1: No, not a problem at all. No, let's end it 938 00:59:41,639 --> 00:59:43,880 right there, man, I really appreciate it. Thank you, Thank 939 00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:46,440 you for any time I have some expertise to this, 940 00:59:46,639 --> 00:59:48,559 and let's do it again real soon. 941 00:59:50,039 --> 00:59:50,280 Speaker 2: Cool. 942 00:59:50,480 --> 01:00:16,079 Speaker 1: Thanks man,