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Speaker 1: Hey twenty nine fifty five krc DE talk station. It
Speaker 1: is that time. Regular listeners, no apployment listening. The Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, been a
Speaker 1: well warfare analysis and on the same topic We've been
Speaker 1: on for probably longer than Daniel and I care to agree,
Speaker 1: are to admit Russia and Ukraine. Daniel Davis, Welcome back
Speaker 1: to the fifty five Caressey Morning Show. My friend's always
Speaker 1: a real pleasure having you on. Always a delight to
Speaker 1: be here. Thanks for inviting me. I sure appreciate it.
Speaker 1: And well, it happened over the weekend. I guess on
Speaker 1: overnight Saturday or maybe your Sunday, Russia launched four hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy nine drones at Ukraine, the biggest overnight bombardment
Speaker 1: of the three year war. As it's been reported, some
Speaker 1: of the drones were shot down, some of the missiles
Speaker 1: were shot down. They've also escalated their attacks on the
Speaker 1: eastern and north eastern parts of the front line.
Speaker 3: I have a quote here.
Speaker 1: I think we'll call this an understatement Ukraine President Vladimir
Speaker 1: Zelensky calling the situation very difficult.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say so.
Speaker 1: A week after week, Russia keeps going more territory, keeps
Speaker 1: bombing more of Ukraine. Ukraine fires back some Russian some
Speaker 1: drones into the Russian territory, accomplishing not a whole lot.
Speaker 1: Maybe some sort of moral victory when you blow some
Speaker 1: blow up a plane, But as far as the war's going,
Speaker 1: things are getting worse, aren't they.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's exactly right, and you've characterized it perfectly. This
Speaker 4: is in some sense, I think that this is the
Speaker 4: evidence of a side that realizes the war is nearing
Speaker 4: its endpoint and they're just throwing in all this. They're
Speaker 4: pulling out all the stops and throwing everything into this.
Speaker 4: And that's why you've seen attacks inside Russia on railroad bridges,
Speaker 4: one of which took down a civilian train and killed
Speaker 4: a lot of civilian people. They hit the Crimean bridge again,
Speaker 4: it didn't succeed, but they did hit it. And then
Speaker 4: these you're talking about, this strategic bomber fleet through many
Speaker 4: sites inside of Russia, and then they've continued even since
Speaker 4: that time to attack air bases and engles and other things.
Speaker 4: This shot you're talking about here over the weekend of
Speaker 4: four hundred and seventy nine missiles.
Speaker 3: That was just the day.
Speaker 4: They have been since that bomber time. About two or
Speaker 4: three days later they appear to have started on an
Speaker 4: air campaign, meaning instead of coming up with some big
Speaker 4: shock and all kinds of deal as retaliation for this.
Speaker 4: They just said, we're gonna escalate our normal routine and
Speaker 4: we're gonna saturate you with bombs. And it is being
Speaker 4: devastating because there's just way too many bombs, drones and
Speaker 4: missiles that Ukraine simply doesn't have the air power to
Speaker 4: knock down, so it is starting to really cripple them.
Speaker 4: And then, as you said, all that is having impact
Speaker 4: on the front line because Russia is accelerating its conquest
Speaker 4: of territory in the Sumi area in the north and
Speaker 4: a couple of areas in the eastern flank. And there's
Speaker 4: nothing that I can see that's gonna reverse any of
Speaker 4: those trends well.
Speaker 1: And of course, every time you read an article about this,
Speaker 1: you know Ukraine desperately needs additional Western aid, but that
Speaker 1: would only be in the form of military hardware. You
Speaker 1: gotta have somebody behind the wheel of a tank, you
Speaker 1: gotta have somebody operating the hardware. They're running out of people.
Speaker 1: I mean, again a continuing theme of our regular discussions, Daniel,
Speaker 1: but nobody's volunteering troops. I don't want to see NATO
Speaker 1: volunteering troops because this will escalate the situation to a
Speaker 1: World War three event. And I know that the leaders
Speaker 1: in the Western European countries appreciate that, and I think
Speaker 1: that's why they haven't stepped up and send some of
Speaker 1: their own guys to the front line. So this war
Speaker 1: of attrition looks like Russia's on the winning side of it.
Speaker 1: So are they just going to capitulate and roll over?
Speaker 1: Are they going to concede the Russia's demands to you know,
Speaker 1: disarm or denazify. I don't know how you do that.
Speaker 1: It's a political ideology. If they're Nazis in Ukraine, I
Speaker 1: don't know how you get them to stop being Nazis.
Speaker 1: But whatever, they're gonna have to concede these demands, are
Speaker 1: they not?
Speaker 4: Yeah, and listen, I think that at the Istanbul meetings
Speaker 4: a week ago Monday, Russia made very clear its statements.
Speaker 4: You've had dimitrium ADVEDIV in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 4: I think clarify further, and that is they are going
Speaker 4: to military victory.
Speaker 3: The twelve point piece plan, so called it.
Speaker 4: Russia gave the memorandum that each side was supposed to
Speaker 4: exchange Russia was basically terms of surrender. I mean, you
Speaker 4: can't look at it and see it any other way
Speaker 4: because basically you have to do everything that we say,
Speaker 4: and it is an egregious list. And then Dimet Medvedev said,
Speaker 4: we are going to continue going on, probably all the
Speaker 4: way to the Nepper River.
Speaker 3: Others have added in there from Russian sources, so they.
Speaker 4: Are marching forward and they have no intent to stop
Speaker 4: because they don't think that there's a partner they can
Speaker 4: deal with and negotiate with.
Speaker 3: Because I got to be honest with it.
Speaker 4: Even though I know most of your listeners really like
Speaker 4: the Ukraine side and don't like Russia, the fact is
Speaker 4: there were many political and diplomatic off ramps that either
Speaker 4: Zelenski or Biden, or really even the current leaderships, they
Speaker 4: have not yet taken. And things continue to go forward,
Speaker 4: and then Russia says, then the only thing left to
Speaker 4: us is to fight until we win on the battlefield,
Speaker 4: and that may take six months, nine months, a year,
Speaker 4: I don't know. But Russia is prepared if it takes
Speaker 4: even longer than that, and they're resourced for it and
Speaker 4: they can do it. But I'll just add that I
Speaker 4: don't think the Ukraine army can survive that long, to
Speaker 4: your point, because they're already now starting to say they're
Speaker 4: going to forcibly mobilize eighteen year olds in the very
Speaker 4: soon and according to like Ben Hodges, your former US general,
Speaker 4: he thinks they should start taking women as well, anything
Speaker 4: to just keep the fight going, which I consider to
Speaker 4: be immoral because there is no possibility that they can
Speaker 4: win and all they're doing is sacrifice in another generation
Speaker 4: of Ukrainians.
Speaker 1: Well, and what would the situation look like for my
Speaker 1: friend my listeners aren't familiar with the geography all the
Speaker 1: way that river. Does that mean Russia is going to
Speaker 1: be an occupying force in areas where it does not
Speaker 1: have predominantly pro Russian communities like Crimea? We've talked about
Speaker 1: that a lot. They started there because most of the
Speaker 1: people there were sympathetic with Russia and would have rather
Speaker 1: been in the Russian umbrella than the Ukrainian umbrella. So
Speaker 1: is this just regions like that or are they going
Speaker 1: to keep pushing and pushing and then have to be
Speaker 1: an occupying force with hostile hostile people around them constantly,
Speaker 1: sort of like that guerrilla warfare concept you and I
Speaker 1: have talked about before.
Speaker 4: My reading of the situation and of the demographics inside
Speaker 4: of Ukraine says that Russia is probably going to annex
Speaker 4: and seas not just occupied, but annex into the Russian
Speaker 4: Federation all the regions that.
Speaker 3: Have predominantly Russian personnel.
Speaker 4: That are living there right now, and that means on
Speaker 4: the other side of the current line of contact, there's
Speaker 4: quite a number of other provinces that have a majority
Speaker 4: or substantial percentage of Russian speakers, and I think that
Speaker 4: they're going to continue to go until they capture all
Speaker 4: of those, and that means past the Danepa River in
Speaker 4: some places like in the Odessa area, and I just
Speaker 4: don't see anyway we can stop them, we meaning the
Speaker 4: West at large, Ukraine, Europe, et cetera, unless we do
Speaker 4: as you said and enter the fight, and of course
Speaker 4: in that catastrophe that we should never ever do, and
Speaker 4: because we almost certainly won't do that, that's in the cars.
Speaker 4: There's just nowhere else for this to go, but in
Speaker 4: an ugly end for Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So the map is going to be redrawn ultimately, that's
Speaker 1: really what we're talking about here. It's going to be
Speaker 1: a completely different looking country. And I think I guess
Speaker 1: the rename part of Ukraine when they take it over,
Speaker 1: like they did with the Eastern countries after World War Two.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know it will be the case to
Speaker 4: where Russia will put out its maps whatever, and nobody
Speaker 4: in the West will acknowledge it that the maps in
Speaker 4: the West will continue to show Ukraine and they'll just
Speaker 4: say occupied territory whatever.
Speaker 3: So everyone will go on with fiction whatever they prefer.
Speaker 4: But the hard facts on the ground is Russia is
Speaker 4: almost certainly going to own it.
Speaker 1: How long do you think this is gonna take? Because
Speaker 1: this bloodbath, it's it's a crime against humanity. I mean,
Speaker 1: people are just like lambs to the slaughter in this conflict.
Speaker 1: Right now, the way things are unfolding, I just saw
Speaker 1: that they have one thing that they have agreed on
Speaker 1: is exchanging the dead and seriously wounded, and there are
Speaker 1: thousands and thousands of those exchanges going on. Just one
Speaker 1: little illustration of how horrific this has been in terms
Speaker 1: of loss of life.
Speaker 3: Well, they kind of agree to it, but they haven't
Speaker 3: actually done it.
Speaker 4: And in fact, so far the Ukraine side categorically said yeah,
Speaker 4: we would do that, but then Russia moved a bunch
Speaker 4: of these, like huge eighteen wheeler refrigeration trucks filled with
Speaker 4: six thousand Ukrainian bodies, and the Ukraine side is not
Speaker 4: willing to take them now, they claim because they don't
Speaker 4: know who they are. They claim that only fifteen percent
Speaker 4: we can identify, and they like it could just be
Speaker 4: Russian guys or something, so they're not taking them. There's
Speaker 4: a different interpretation it could be because that will now
Speaker 4: take those soldiers from being missing an action to confirmed killed.
Speaker 4: And now then they have to pay you know, the
Speaker 4: severance and not severance. I'm sorry that the money to
Speaker 4: the soldiers for being killed in contact, just like we do.
Speaker 4: And according to most calculations that somewhere around two billion dollars.
Speaker 4: Ukraine doesn't have two billion dollars, so they can't pay them.
Speaker 4: Then that's going to make angry relatives, so they're trying
Speaker 4: to avoid taking care of that.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 4: One final thing, I know, we're running short on time.
Speaker 4: This morning, it was announced or actually last night revealed
Speaker 4: rather by Budano of the leader for the Security Services
Speaker 4: in Ukraine that Ukraine Russia is now getting help from
Speaker 4: North Korea on the production of the guarantee. The twos
Speaker 4: or threes the most modern long range drone that Russia has,
Speaker 4: And now then they're producing around two thousand total, two
Speaker 4: thousand per month, and with this new capability it could
Speaker 4: expand to five thousand per month. And this is the
Speaker 4: top of the line stuff that's causing most of the
Speaker 4: damage right now. So everywhere you look, it's just going
Speaker 4: downhill for the Ukraine side.
Speaker 1: So and I understand the reasons for the demand for
Speaker 1: those weapons. I guess I'm kind of wondering North Korea's
Speaker 1: what do they have in this game that they'd be
Speaker 1: so willing to assist Russia. I guess it's just the
Speaker 1: creation of jobs for the North Koreans and the forms
Speaker 1: of weapons production and making money off the purchase.
Speaker 3: Of so part of it.
Speaker 4: The other part is they want they are getting some
Speaker 4: very valuable scientific help from the Russian side.
Speaker 3: They were getting help there.
Speaker 4: I think it's the Huassong eleven kN twenty three we
Speaker 4: call the missile. They gave some of those to Russia
Speaker 4: early on, and apparently they were wildly inaccurate. Well, Russian
Speaker 4: scientists have now gone to help them repross or re
Speaker 4: calibrate that and reprogramming and now then all of a sudden,
Speaker 4: they're very very effective, so that technology is going to
Speaker 4: Ukraine to right North Korea as well. And then there's
Speaker 4: also they get combat experience, so this increases the capacity
Speaker 4: of North Korea, which worries South Korea.
Speaker 1: I guess it would Daniel Davis. Find them online Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive check out the podcast. I always enjoy
Speaker 1: our conversations. Man is as sad and and and and
Speaker 1: disheartening as sometimes they are. At least you're speaking truth
Speaker 1: and reality about the whole thing. That's all we can do.
Speaker 1: Appreciate it your time today, as always, Daniel, look forward
Speaker 1: to look forward to next Tuesday.
Speaker 3: As always, see you next week.
Speaker 1: Have a great week coming up at eight forty fifty
Speaker 1: five KRC, the talk station stick around folks, get a
Speaker 1: little bit to talk about. Feel free to call me
Speaker 1: if you have a comment.
Speaker 3: I'll be right back. This is fifty five KARC and
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