WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.480 --> 00:00:33.280 I want me some Gloryhole. Yeah, Hello books and thief 2 00:00:33.479 --> 00:00:38.399 Bok Glory Whole podcast. Listen to Apple Podcasts, Springer SoundCloud, 3 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:41.679 watch live on Facebook, Live on YouTube, live on Next, 4 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:44.560 live on the Instagram live and recorded anywhere you cannot 5 00:00:44.880 --> 00:00:48.200 or the baby we think you just Gloryhill secret tuning 6 00:00:48.240 --> 00:00:54.159 in this week, I ain't my buddy long. 7 00:00:55.920 --> 00:00:59.960 Something all right, I'll ride you both. 8 00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:04.359 See because here we go week number ten in the NFL. 9 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:08.120 And then on ten, in honor of the perfect ten, 10 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:11.319 Longhorn is gonna bang a perfect ten this weekend. And 11 00:01:11.480 --> 00:01:16.680 no I'm not talking about Jessica Alba, but I'm gonna 12 00:01:16.680 --> 00:01:21.680 go plus ten units, zero units on the lost side. 13 00:01:21.719 --> 00:01:24.879 And if you believe that, come celebrate this perfect ten 14 00:01:24.920 --> 00:01:28.079 and now with me Monday night at the bar. I'll 15 00:01:28.079 --> 00:01:31.040 be the guy with Jessica Alba sitting on my lap. Now, 16 00:01:31.079 --> 00:01:38.239 both staves here that button. Whether you are here for 17 00:01:38.400 --> 00:01:40.079 the funny, it's a question for fun. 18 00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:42.879 I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun. We're 19 00:01:42.920 --> 00:01:45.079 all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the plastic 20 00:01:45.159 --> 00:01:48.120 surgery to remove our goddamn s files, you'll be whistling 21 00:01:48.159 --> 00:01:50.000 symphony due to out of your assholes? 22 00:01:50.200 --> 00:01:51.879 Are you out here for the money? 23 00:01:51.879 --> 00:01:53.680 Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil, 24 00:01:53.799 --> 00:01:56.760 doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. 25 00:01:56.840 --> 00:01:58.640 Look at the fucking smile on my face. 26 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:01.879 Here to here, baby, you have come to the right place. 27 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:05.239 Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What 28 00:02:05.359 --> 00:02:09.479 a stupid question that has? What a stupid question? You 29 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:12.439 ask a lot of stupid questions. 30 00:02:12.719 --> 00:02:16.960 My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you 31 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:17.960 like money? 32 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:20.919 I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I 33 00:02:21.039 --> 00:02:21.439 use it. 34 00:02:21.840 --> 00:02:23.879 I have a little I keep it in a jar 35 00:02:23.960 --> 00:02:26.240 on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more 36 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:27.879 in that jar. That's where you come in. 37 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:30.879 That's right, Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. 38 00:02:31.319 --> 00:02:34.879 Visit our Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. 39 00:02:35.039 --> 00:02:39.240 That's patreon dot com, slash bet Underscore FGH. 40 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:40.919 Become our football. 41 00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:42.759 Partners for life so that you can bet football the 42 00:02:42.879 --> 00:02:51.639 right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And 43 00:02:51.759 --> 00:02:54.840 as always here on the sports patio, we got the 44 00:02:55.039 --> 00:02:59.159 TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and 45 00:02:59.280 --> 00:03:02.960 right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of 46 00:03:03.039 --> 00:03:08.240 the show, my friend, tell the people all about your horrible, 47 00:03:08.840 --> 00:03:10.639 disgusting how. 48 00:03:12.680 --> 00:03:19.080 Choice of the week. I drunk. 49 00:03:19.199 --> 00:03:23.199 I feel right, Oh, thank you very much, sir, sirch 50 00:03:23.240 --> 00:03:26.680 And I am drinking a gold Star by Strapp Taint 51 00:03:26.680 --> 00:03:30.680 Brewery in at Springville, Utah. Nice little blonde and as 52 00:03:30.719 --> 00:03:33.120 with most nice little blondes, they get an above average 53 00:03:33.120 --> 00:03:36.120 score from me. But I'm drinking this one a night, Longhorn. 54 00:03:36.159 --> 00:03:39.479 It's very apropos because we're watching right now like football 55 00:03:39.520 --> 00:03:43.000 game where you remember, like back in school, when you know, 56 00:03:43.039 --> 00:03:45.319 the kids that make good grains got good grades and 57 00:03:45.360 --> 00:03:48.759 they got the awards and the ribbons, and the kids 58 00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:51.479 you know that weren't so bright, they got the gold stars. 59 00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:53.759 Remember they got the gold Hey you Timmy, you get 60 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:58.199 a gold Star. The gold star quarterback in the NFL 61 00:03:58.360 --> 00:04:02.599 is absolutely your boy, Knicks. Because the defense, this might 62 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:04.800 be the best defense we've ever seen, literally in the 63 00:04:04.879 --> 00:04:07.639 history of the world, all things considered, and they keep 64 00:04:07.719 --> 00:04:10.439 them every game. They just intercepted the ball, got it 65 00:04:10.479 --> 00:04:13.479 down to the thirty and they went back bonets with 66 00:04:13.560 --> 00:04:15.599 backers on offense, had a punt after getting the ball 67 00:04:15.680 --> 00:04:18.319 on the other team's thirty. So at the end of 68 00:04:18.319 --> 00:04:20.800 every game, but they win, which they inevitably will somehow, 69 00:04:20.839 --> 00:04:25.000 some way, Sean pays like here, buddy, here's your gold star. 70 00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:28.720 But like everybody gets game balls, sticker helmets for all 71 00:04:28.720 --> 00:04:32.519 the plays, and Bonis gets the gold saw in the 72 00:04:32.600 --> 00:04:33.399 corner of the lot. 73 00:04:34.319 --> 00:04:37.439 Well, I would like to I would like to personally 74 00:04:37.439 --> 00:04:43.519 give him a. 75 00:04:41.519 --> 00:04:46.160 A star, a R star, and then a B star 76 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:50.279 because he is awful. He is fucking retarded at quarterback 77 00:04:50.519 --> 00:04:54.800 and finally the bee he's gonna be benched, Like, get 78 00:04:54.839 --> 00:04:56.680 the fuck out of here, you kid. This we're watching 79 00:04:56.720 --> 00:05:01.199 one of the worst quarterbacked games. I mean, overall game 80 00:05:01.279 --> 00:05:04.319 is true penalties, everywhere, office is going backwards when they 81 00:05:04.360 --> 00:05:07.680 get the ball, turnovers, This is god awful. So all 82 00:05:07.680 --> 00:05:11.519 of you stuck just just terrible. This is just bad football. 83 00:05:11.519 --> 00:05:14.079 And vow next you are you're the head of the class. 84 00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:17.040 Oh boy, should have hit the under on this one, kiddo. 85 00:05:17.160 --> 00:05:19.240 All right, let's get to the podcast. Now. We're gonna 86 00:05:19.240 --> 00:05:21.199 go in every game in the NFL in the air 87 00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:24.360 Tonight's and of course, of course get you paid with 88 00:05:24.399 --> 00:05:26.759 those free picks, as we always do. But right now 89 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.079 we gonna get paid to do that. This week's sponsor 90 00:05:29.480 --> 00:05:32.720 it's our good buddies sexistelehealth dot com. Go to the 91 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:35.360 doctor sucks, get a schedule, a portman, take time off 92 00:05:35.439 --> 00:05:37.560 work to drive there, wait for up to the hours 93 00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:40.160 to finally have a doctor say hey, go in the 94 00:05:40.199 --> 00:05:42.199 back and take your pants off. But it's my throat. 95 00:05:42.240 --> 00:05:45.120 I don't give a shit take your fucking pants off. 96 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:48.240 None of that anymore. You go to text tele dot com, 97 00:05:48.519 --> 00:05:51.079 my good buddy, doctor West. 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So 107 00:06:15.920 --> 00:06:17.439 whether you get a pain, surn green, a little to 108 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:19.120 much size around your thighs, yellow shit coming out of 109 00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:20.240 you know whose loans And I was going to text 110 00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:22.199 to tail health dot com right now and tell them 111 00:06:22.240 --> 00:06:24.959 the fg EH sent you. That is Texas t E 112 00:06:25.399 --> 00:06:29.240 l E Health dot com for all of your medical needs. 113 00:06:29.279 --> 00:06:40.360 Boys and girls please, and gentlemen, boys and girls, children 114 00:06:40.439 --> 00:06:51.680 of all ages. Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. 115 00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:56.959 God, what do you think is happening right now? Excuse me? 116 00:06:57.079 --> 00:06:59.959 What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck 117 00:07:00.360 --> 00:07:03.759 just happened? Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for 118 00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:12.040 all those wins coming in the air tonight. Bber alright, 119 00:07:12.079 --> 00:07:14.519 boys and girls, it is time for all those ones 120 00:07:14.560 --> 00:07:18.360 coming in the air tonight. We're gonna start. Let's see, 121 00:07:18.399 --> 00:07:22.600 it's not in London, it's springzy Dutch. We're in thus 122 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:29.120 Lyndon over to Munich. For those Indianapolis coasts, Indiana Joneses 123 00:07:29.600 --> 00:07:33.560 fresh off they're first loss in quite some time, longhorn, 124 00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:38.040 and they are facing those hot Atlanta Falcons who also 125 00:07:38.439 --> 00:07:41.240 came off a little real heartbreaker there in New England. 126 00:07:41.319 --> 00:07:44.000 Stupid kicker can't make an extra point, thank you very much, 127 00:07:44.560 --> 00:07:51.439 you fucking dickhead. Uh And Indy is sitting at six 128 00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:55.199 and a half point neutral favorites, we'll say neutral favorites 129 00:07:55.199 --> 00:07:58.639 even though they're listed as the home team. 130 00:07:58.839 --> 00:08:02.000 Yeah, oh yeah, that this is the easy call for me. 131 00:08:02.480 --> 00:08:07.639 Now, Andy's coming off a bad game as far as turnovers, 132 00:08:07.680 --> 00:08:10.759 but they somehow were within that game one score of 133 00:08:10.920 --> 00:08:14.800 of you know, of tying that game up. Obviously, they 134 00:08:14.800 --> 00:08:17.639 had no shot in that specific game just because of 135 00:08:17.680 --> 00:08:20.480 the way it was going. Danny Dimes had derailed. We've 136 00:08:20.480 --> 00:08:22.720 had a full week to get get the trained back 137 00:08:22.759 --> 00:08:26.439 on the tracks, and now you're facing the Atlanta defense. 138 00:08:26.120 --> 00:08:32.519 That actually off in theory. In theory, the Atlanta defense. 139 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:35.200 Pass rush might be able to give him some if 140 00:08:35.240 --> 00:08:38.279 the ghosts are really there, maybe they could still be 141 00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:38.960 there a little bit. 142 00:08:39.320 --> 00:08:41.480 Denver's by the way, going backwards again, that's what they do. 143 00:08:43.519 --> 00:08:46.559 But all the Atlanta injuries on their offense is kind 144 00:08:46.559 --> 00:08:49.519 of where I'm taking this. Last week, literally their whole 145 00:08:49.519 --> 00:08:51.960 offense was let me throw the ball to Drake London 146 00:08:52.039 --> 00:08:55.039 and that's it. Now we don't know if Sauce is 147 00:08:55.039 --> 00:08:57.399 gonna play a lot his game, but I have to 148 00:08:57.440 --> 00:08:59.360 think that he's gonna get out there and they just say, hey, 149 00:08:59.559 --> 00:09:02.399 see that six to five guy that they scored three touchs, 150 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:05.679 just just lock him up to him. If they do that, 151 00:09:06.679 --> 00:09:08.559 and we know there's gonna be a bounce back. You know, 152 00:09:08.600 --> 00:09:10.080 he's not gonna turn on the ball for five times 153 00:09:10.120 --> 00:09:13.159 Daniel Jones. So it just everything points to and he's 154 00:09:13.159 --> 00:09:14.759 coming off a bad loss. This is gonna be their 155 00:09:14.759 --> 00:09:17.000 bounce back. And I just don't trust Atlanta on the road. 156 00:09:17.080 --> 00:09:21.240 I don't trust them outdoors ish whatever whatever that situation 157 00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:24.440 is in Germany. So yeah, I'm all, I'm all Indy here, 158 00:09:26.200 --> 00:09:26.519 all right. 159 00:09:26.799 --> 00:09:30.240 So on this one being Vegas for Whales, so Vegas 160 00:09:30.279 --> 00:09:32.159 had Atlanta minus one and a half preseason, I had 161 00:09:32.159 --> 00:09:34.320 a minus three and a half. Obviously, everybody in the 162 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:37.679 world was wrong on Indianapolis. They far outseeded all of 163 00:09:37.679 --> 00:09:41.240 our expectations. So that's the reason for the big discrepancy there. 164 00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:44.000 Now the power ring is, though, still have Atlanta covering this. 165 00:09:44.039 --> 00:09:46.919 When the BBG has Atlanta winning this game twenty five 166 00:09:46.919 --> 00:09:49.039 to twenty three, the totals forty eight and a half, 167 00:09:49.120 --> 00:09:52.159 So there's no call there. The reason why the BBG 168 00:09:52.240 --> 00:09:53.919 has a winning says, this is a terrible matchup for 169 00:09:54.000 --> 00:09:56.799 Danny Domes and specifically, as I was looking through the numbers, like, wow, 170 00:09:56.879 --> 00:09:58.440 how is this a bad matchup for him? He's having 171 00:09:58.480 --> 00:10:00.519 the season of his life and he has great out this, 172 00:10:00.559 --> 00:10:02.440 but he's not great out this bad versus one defense 173 00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:05.240 the entire year. The reason for that is because Atlanta 174 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:09.240 plays sixty seven per single high safety and that is 175 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:11.759 his worst thing than he does, and he's already blow 176 00:10:11.799 --> 00:10:13.679 the league average at it. They do it, not only 177 00:10:13.720 --> 00:10:15.840 the Bulls, but they do it very very well. They 178 00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:17.639 are one of the best defenses in all the football 179 00:10:17.679 --> 00:10:21.080 at that So for that reason, I was like, fuck, yeah, 180 00:10:21.159 --> 00:10:24.639 give me Atlanta. But then, oh, but then I started 181 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:26.200 digging into the trends. It's like, all right, let me 182 00:10:26.279 --> 00:10:28.200 check the buys. Let me check it before the buyer, 183 00:10:28.240 --> 00:10:31.039 after the buye. So I went to the before the 184 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:35.639 buy since twenty twenty one and no playoffs, and this 185 00:10:35.679 --> 00:10:38.759 is a neutral site, which we have seven games, believe 186 00:10:38.759 --> 00:10:40.799 it or not of this data since we've been playing 187 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:44.559 so many international games lately. If you're before the buye 188 00:10:44.799 --> 00:10:48.639 the neutral site, and you are the favorite six and 189 00:10:48.679 --> 00:10:50.840 one straight up when he was seven point three points 190 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:53.519 a game, six and one ats covering by four point 191 00:10:53.559 --> 00:10:57.320 three points a game, but the under is one in 192 00:10:57.639 --> 00:11:00.440 six to the under not going over by almost eight 193 00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:02.440 points a game. On an average sold of forty three 194 00:11:02.519 --> 00:11:04.440 and a half, we're sitting at forty eight and a half. 195 00:11:04.480 --> 00:11:06.639 Now again, I've got it at forty eight points. It's 196 00:11:06.679 --> 00:11:08.919 a no call there. But if this is really gonna 197 00:11:08.919 --> 00:11:11.720 be this bad a matchup for Daniel Jones and the 198 00:11:11.759 --> 00:11:13.240 other part of this too, the reason why I liked 199 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:15.519 Atlanta is because, I mean, we all know the catalyst 200 00:11:15.600 --> 00:11:18.240 for this offense, obviously is the running game. That's the 201 00:11:18.279 --> 00:11:20.159 reason why they've been so successful in any They couldn't 202 00:11:20.200 --> 00:11:22.559 run it last week versus Pittsburgh very well, and then 203 00:11:22.559 --> 00:11:24.480 all the turnovers, which you know, once you get that 204 00:11:24.519 --> 00:11:26.799 many turnovers, the running game kind of takes care of itself. 205 00:11:27.039 --> 00:11:29.720 It's kind of hard to get it consistency going. But 206 00:11:29.759 --> 00:11:31.440 if they hold true, they can't run the ball, or 207 00:11:31.440 --> 00:11:33.519 they run it like they normally do, which is very 208 00:11:33.679 --> 00:11:38.399 very good. But Atlanta with Bejon the running game it 209 00:11:38.440 --> 00:11:40.840 grades up flat as well, and Pennies grades out flat. 210 00:11:40.840 --> 00:11:43.639 So basically you're gonna get a normal Atlanta game. The 211 00:11:43.679 --> 00:11:45.600 big difference here is that Daniel Jones is not gonna 212 00:11:45.960 --> 00:11:48.120 perform very well. I kind of do lean to that 213 00:11:48.240 --> 00:11:51.240 under but giving that trend, I cannot go with Atlanta 214 00:11:51.279 --> 00:11:53.039 as bad as I fucking wanted to, I'm not going 215 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:56.000 against that trend. However, I think what we will do 216 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:58.159 with this game, so it's just because I'm so frustrated 217 00:11:58.200 --> 00:11:59.679 since I don't get to fucking bet it like I 218 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:02.919 want to. We're gonna make this the Numbers Gig Pick 219 00:12:02.919 --> 00:12:06.159 of the Week. Go outside, Nerd, get out, Go. I 220 00:12:06.159 --> 00:12:08.279 ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless chime 221 00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:13.399 Man's gone, all right? So with that now, I said, 222 00:12:13.440 --> 00:12:16.600 the Acs six and one covered by four point three 223 00:12:16.600 --> 00:12:19.440 points a game. That's an average line of minus three 224 00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:21.120 and a half. So what we can do in this 225 00:12:21.200 --> 00:12:23.759 game is we can make it a seven point teaser. 226 00:12:24.559 --> 00:12:27.480 We're gonna take Indy up to plus thirteen and a half. 227 00:12:27.759 --> 00:12:29.919 We're gonna take this total up to fifty five and 228 00:12:29.960 --> 00:12:33.159 a half, and we're gonna bet the under. So that's 229 00:12:33.240 --> 00:12:35.840 Indy plus thirteen and a half total up to fifty 230 00:12:35.840 --> 00:12:40.000 five and a half. Take the under. Sorry not Indy, 231 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:43.559 Atlanta plus thirteen and a half and total fifty five 232 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:45.799 and a half. Take the under. That's why we're gonna 233 00:12:45.799 --> 00:12:48.360 get at this one as the Numbers Gig Do no 234 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:52.679 Long Pick of the Week. I'm so frustrated by this 235 00:12:52.679 --> 00:12:55.639 because again Danny Downads has been grading out spectacularly all year, 236 00:12:55.639 --> 00:12:58.639 and he's been performing spectacularly all year. Last week we 237 00:12:58.720 --> 00:13:00.879 told you we didn't really like him against Pittsburgh, didn't 238 00:13:00.879 --> 00:13:04.360 great out the best. But this week, but last week 239 00:13:04.360 --> 00:13:05.720 he was like flat. I mean, if wouldn't been for 240 00:13:05.759 --> 00:13:07.440 the turnovers, to your point, long warm, they would have 241 00:13:07.519 --> 00:13:09.600 been fine. It's just one of those games. It's gonna 242 00:13:09.639 --> 00:13:13.120 fucking happen. It's the NFL. But this week, without any term, 243 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:14.639 this like, so, this is the worst graad he's had, 244 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:18.039 just because he does not perform well against this Atlanta system. 245 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:20.200 And again Atlanta is actually really good at what they do. 246 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:25.320 Atlanta's defense sneakily has been not too shabby through most 247 00:13:25.320 --> 00:13:27.720 of the season. So now they've had their spots, but 248 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:30.559 they've gotten had. I mean, look no further than what 249 00:13:30.679 --> 00:13:32.519 was it what I keep thinking it was Buffalo, but 250 00:13:32.519 --> 00:13:33.200 that was Carolina. 251 00:13:34.159 --> 00:13:35.679 Yeah, it's not awful. 252 00:13:35.759 --> 00:13:37.879 Just looking at the grades across the board, I mean 253 00:13:38.759 --> 00:13:41.519 it's it's not great, and there's a lot of I 254 00:13:41.519 --> 00:13:44.240 think there's one too. There's like three rookies starting basically, 255 00:13:44.399 --> 00:13:46.519 and we talked about that and some of the you. 256 00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:48.320 Talked about that other preseas, You're like, they need all 257 00:13:48.320 --> 00:13:52.240 these hen to have like any chance. And I guess basically, Yeah, the. 258 00:13:52.559 --> 00:13:53.840 Two passers are doing okay. 259 00:13:53.879 --> 00:13:57.360 And Xavier watch the one I like the most safety's 260 00:13:57.480 --> 00:14:00.159 he's probably playing better than all of them. 261 00:14:00.559 --> 00:14:03.879 Let's just look at their le We move on from 262 00:14:03.919 --> 00:14:06.679 this one, just looking up their cess rating. 263 00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:09.360 By the way, Denver blocked a punt and got it 264 00:14:09.399 --> 00:14:12.159 at the twelve yard line and went nowhere and had 265 00:14:12.200 --> 00:14:13.039 to kick a field goal. 266 00:14:13.519 --> 00:14:16.960 We remember that they're gonna win this game ten to seven. 267 00:14:17.399 --> 00:14:20.759 Remember that that game, there was a game that Watson 268 00:14:20.799 --> 00:14:22.759 had towards the end of his like when it was 269 00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:25.080 just like almost done and then he blew up one 270 00:14:25.120 --> 00:14:30.519 of his knees or and and I remember watching that game. Yeah, 271 00:14:31.240 --> 00:14:33.120 and they would they would show that, like the behind 272 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:35.519 the quarterback shot and you see the receivers out in 273 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:35.960 the motion. 274 00:14:36.600 --> 00:14:40.559 They're they're showing this there he's this quarterback's lost. 275 00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:44.799 This dude's lost. There's receivers. I haven't seen someone this lost. 276 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:48.080 No pressure and he's running outside into pressure. 277 00:14:48.399 --> 00:14:52.200 He shook. This dude has shook Denver. You got major, 278 00:14:52.679 --> 00:14:54.399 major problems going forward. 279 00:14:54.480 --> 00:14:56.279 I don't you know you're gonna have a good record, 280 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:58.200 You're you're gonna make the playoffs. Because you're seven to two, 281 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:01.720 you're probably gonna go to eight and two after this game. Major, major, 282 00:15:01.840 --> 00:15:05.759 major problems at quarterback, even worse like last year, he 283 00:15:05.799 --> 00:15:09.519 started off bad, gradually got better. This dude's lost right now, 284 00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:11.360 just watching, just watching some of the All twenty two, 285 00:15:11.360 --> 00:15:12.879 he's he's completely shook back there. 286 00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:15.000 Oh, the Broncos might be in troll though, you know, 287 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:18.879 just saws hurt, So maybe they're bringing backup. 288 00:15:18.559 --> 00:15:21.919 In and uh oh Gino got hurt, Might might. 289 00:15:21.799 --> 00:15:23.720 Have some might have some backup magic. 290 00:15:24.039 --> 00:15:25.080 Who is their backup? 291 00:15:25.960 --> 00:15:29.559 I don't even know anymore? Is it my boy? The Stash? 292 00:15:30.200 --> 00:15:31.600 Well, I guess I'll find out. 293 00:15:32.159 --> 00:15:34.279 Oh if the Stash comes in and beats but Nicks, 294 00:15:34.279 --> 00:15:36.240 I'm so fucking happy. 295 00:15:36.440 --> 00:15:37.600 And that probably would happen. 296 00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:44.159 Oh every football god alive still wouldn't make that happen 297 00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:44.360 for me. 298 00:15:44.559 --> 00:15:46.639 No, yeah, he said he's having a hard time getting 299 00:15:46.679 --> 00:15:50.639 up carry Harry. 300 00:15:51.639 --> 00:15:55.399 Yeah. So Atlanta eleventh overall in uh e p A. 301 00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:59.759 So yeah, again, they're they're performing better than we expected 302 00:15:59.799 --> 00:16:03.039 them on defense. So We'll see how this one plays out, 303 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:06.639 all right. Moving on to those Minnesota Vikings. They're hosting 304 00:16:06.679 --> 00:16:13.240 those Baltimore Ravens, the the surging Ravens. Lamar's back, everybody's back, 305 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:20.399 and they're sitting at They're sitting at four across the board. 306 00:16:20.399 --> 00:16:22.480 There is one three and a half at DK, but 307 00:16:22.600 --> 00:16:26.360 it's minus one eighteen and you're only paying eight cents 308 00:16:26.399 --> 00:16:29.320 for that. That four points has become so crucial Longhorn 309 00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:32.720 in this new NFL, and I'm all like the Ravens, 310 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:34.120 I definitely get down on that. What do you got 311 00:16:34.120 --> 00:16:34.600 on this one? 312 00:16:35.440 --> 00:16:36.919 It was I mean, it was seemed like it was 313 00:16:36.919 --> 00:16:39.519 creeping towards four and a half at some books. 314 00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:43.360 Is it flat at four across? Now there is a 315 00:16:43.360 --> 00:16:46.960 four and a half at bet rivers. I'm just taking 316 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:50.240 some serious fucking Vikings money or something. 317 00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:52.399 Yeah on this one. 318 00:16:52.559 --> 00:16:55.639 I Well, what I wrote up was for today is 319 00:16:55.639 --> 00:16:58.039 that we if you like Baltimore, you kind of missed 320 00:16:58.080 --> 00:16:58.480 the boat. 321 00:16:58.600 --> 00:17:01.399 And I did like Baltim some more. In this spot. 322 00:17:02.240 --> 00:17:04.359 We know that we know that the Lamar versus the 323 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:07.039 NFC is a huge thing. You've got Minnesota coming off 324 00:17:07.079 --> 00:17:10.680 a huge, huge win last week, so they're due for 325 00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:13.559 a comeback down to earth spot, especially with JJ McCarthy. 326 00:17:13.559 --> 00:17:15.480 Who oh boy. 327 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:18.839 You know, like if you believe in this Baltimore defense 328 00:17:19.680 --> 00:17:21.599 coming out of that buy where they where they've looked 329 00:17:21.640 --> 00:17:25.279 way better and and gotten more healthy. Uh, this could 330 00:17:25.319 --> 00:17:28.160 be the blow up spot for JJ McCarthy. And we 331 00:17:28.279 --> 00:17:32.319 know that Lamar Jackson versus any defense, whether it's Brian 332 00:17:32.359 --> 00:17:35.200 Flores or anybody can he can kind of have his 333 00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:38.279 way and and really the pass rush that they have 334 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:41.799 that almost can feed into what Lamar likes to do. 335 00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:44.039 So I'm not one hundred percent worried about that. 336 00:17:44.359 --> 00:17:48.279 But he is deadly if you if you can follow 337 00:17:48.279 --> 00:17:52.039 in love with blitzing him, which Flora is blitzes like, 338 00:17:52.119 --> 00:17:54.720 it is so deadly if you don't, if you don't 339 00:17:54.720 --> 00:17:57.400 get him. If you get him, he'll fumble on you 340 00:17:57.440 --> 00:17:59.920 for sure, and you can create a lot of turnovers 341 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:03.480 from more. But if he makes one step but there's 342 00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:07.359 no way and there's nobody there, your toast. 343 00:18:08.359 --> 00:18:11.000 So yeah, I'm I'm I tend to want to be 344 00:18:11.079 --> 00:18:13.920 on Baltimore. The fact that it went up to four 345 00:18:13.960 --> 00:18:16.319 and a half at some places and takes back down 346 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:20.240 that it seems like that's the line where the buyback 347 00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:23.559 is going to be for Sharps taking Minnesota at that 348 00:18:23.599 --> 00:18:25.400 four and a half mark, which is a which is 349 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:27.319 a very key number, so that that makes a lot 350 00:18:27.319 --> 00:18:30.480 of sense. But yeah, I want to be on Baltimore, 351 00:18:30.599 --> 00:18:33.680 so I'm looking to get the best number. Yeah, I 352 00:18:33.720 --> 00:18:37.079 was gonna say that. I saw that, Kenny Pigott, how 353 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:41.279 you feel about that? Yeah, give me, give me Baltimore. 354 00:18:41.319 --> 00:18:43.680 You know they're they're three and five, they know they're 355 00:18:43.119 --> 00:18:45.799 in this. Every week is a playoff game for them, 356 00:18:46.039 --> 00:18:49.079 So get them, get them under four if you can. 357 00:18:49.400 --> 00:18:55.079 Four is my absolute latest bypoint to take Baltimore. Don't 358 00:18:55.160 --> 00:18:56.279 lay four and a half. 359 00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:57.400 That's that's what I would say. 360 00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:01.759 Yeah, I don't have anything in this game. I might 361 00:19:01.839 --> 00:19:06.799 have something come game day morning, but I didn't look. 362 00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:08.799 I didn't do really a right up on this at all, 363 00:19:09.000 --> 00:19:14.000 just because I do have I guess enough dated to 364 00:19:14.079 --> 00:19:19.440 judge JJ. But it's it's so inconsistent that I had, 365 00:19:19.519 --> 00:19:21.920 you know, a set of games early. I've got basically 366 00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:24.839 one game late. I don't know. I'm just I'm just 367 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:26.920 kind of laying off them until I see more of 368 00:19:27.000 --> 00:19:28.839 him work. It's like I gotta have something that I 369 00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:31.359 can count on that, you know, things that he does well, 370 00:19:31.680 --> 00:19:34.119 things he doesn't do well, and then a good matchup 371 00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:36.359 whether or not it's a good matchup for him or not. Plus, 372 00:19:36.400 --> 00:19:38.759 like you said, we've seen one game out of Baltimore 373 00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:41.599 out of the boy in their defense. Yes, it looked great. Great, 374 00:19:41.599 --> 00:19:43.559 that's one game. I gotta I gotta see more. I 375 00:19:43.559 --> 00:19:47.079 gotta see more. So I it's a layoff of me 376 00:19:47.119 --> 00:19:47.759 on this one. 377 00:19:48.079 --> 00:19:50.519 Kimmy Peckett still wears the gloves, by the way, just 378 00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:53.799 in case you're wondering out there, if everybody's wondering, you know, 379 00:19:53.839 --> 00:19:54.400 it doesn't matter. 380 00:19:54.480 --> 00:19:56.480 Get small hands though, long horn. You remember that it 381 00:19:56.519 --> 00:19:57.759 doesn't matter if you had small hands. 382 00:19:57.799 --> 00:20:00.799 Well, it adds a little bit of girth the if 383 00:20:00.839 --> 00:20:05.880 the glove fits you, you don't. You don't bet on Cony 384 00:20:07.319 --> 00:20:07.799 whatever his. 385 00:20:07.759 --> 00:20:12.160 Name is, Picket any small hands picket? Oh god, all right, 386 00:20:12.200 --> 00:20:14.599 let's move one of those my hamm of dolphins. Speaking 387 00:20:14.599 --> 00:20:19.480 of here we go small hands and small quarterbacks. Oh yeah, 388 00:20:19.720 --> 00:20:27.440 so on the on the preseason line here, I was 389 00:20:27.480 --> 00:20:30.000 so far off of a stupid but Vegas had them 390 00:20:30.039 --> 00:20:32.440 five and a half. They definitely beat me on this one, 391 00:20:33.359 --> 00:20:35.079 we're sitting at nine and a half. As far as 392 00:20:35.119 --> 00:20:37.559 they were off, I was off hitven further. The last one, however, 393 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:41.400 just worth mentioning. I had Baltimore minus five, Vegas having 394 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:42.599 three and a half, so that landed right in the 395 00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:44.720 middle of us. So I think that I think that's 396 00:20:44.720 --> 00:20:47.799 fair enough. Nine and a half points, though, long Horn 397 00:20:47.920 --> 00:20:50.599 nine and a half points and division on the road, 398 00:20:50.640 --> 00:20:54.160 and you're nine and a half point favorites. This is 399 00:20:54.319 --> 00:20:55.480 getting ridiculous. 400 00:20:56.039 --> 00:20:56.839 It is beginning. 401 00:20:56.920 --> 00:20:59.599 It is beginning to get d damn digulous. And that's 402 00:20:59.640 --> 00:21:02.920 why this is, and I'll explain it after the drop. 403 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:04.519 This is the big Dick pick of the week. 404 00:21:05.039 --> 00:21:08.640 Don't pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donkey Dick, 405 00:21:08.839 --> 00:21:09.960 sire fucking. 406 00:21:10.599 --> 00:21:13.200 We've mount Dick Dick. 407 00:21:14.039 --> 00:21:18.279 I'm gonna put my dick in, all right. 408 00:21:18.359 --> 00:21:21.240 So on this one, we are going two units on 409 00:21:21.279 --> 00:21:23.960 the plus nine and a half bo Stevis and we're 410 00:21:23.960 --> 00:21:25.279 doing a. 411 00:21:24.880 --> 00:21:27.279 Half half unit. 412 00:21:27.319 --> 00:21:29.960 We're only this half chubb, just a half chub on 413 00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:33.599 the money line, which is gonna be monsters. So it 414 00:21:33.640 --> 00:21:35.359 doesn't need to be a lot because it's gonna be 415 00:21:35.400 --> 00:21:39.920 a huge number. You said it, buff Buffalo coming off 416 00:21:39.960 --> 00:21:43.319 that huge win, huge huge win against Kansas City, and 417 00:21:43.359 --> 00:21:47.079 now they're laying a gigantic division number on the road 418 00:21:47.279 --> 00:21:48.759 down there in the heat of Miami. 419 00:21:48.920 --> 00:21:50.079 I know it's not super cold. 420 00:21:51.039 --> 00:21:52.640 Well, this is the highest number. I'm want to give 421 00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:53.799 it to you just because you got the balls. 422 00:21:53.880 --> 00:21:54.279 Make this call. 423 00:21:54.279 --> 00:21:56.000 I'm gonnave you plus four hundred. 424 00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.240 He oh yeah, I love a damn. That's like, that's 425 00:21:59.279 --> 00:21:59.799 two units. 426 00:21:59.799 --> 00:22:03.960 If they still doesn win, that's awesome. Yeah, this is 427 00:22:04.119 --> 00:22:06.400 just a huge division number down in the heat. Like 428 00:22:06.440 --> 00:22:08.799 I mean, even though it's not cold yet in Buffalo, 429 00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:11.720 I prefer this to be a December game Foreshore. Uh 430 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:15.359 that that would be ideal. But well, if you look 431 00:22:15.359 --> 00:22:18.039 at the numbers. We talked about this a few weeks ago, 432 00:22:18.839 --> 00:22:21.440 and I don't remember the exact game, but Josh as 433 00:22:21.480 --> 00:22:23.039 a huge road favorite. 434 00:22:23.079 --> 00:22:25.559 It's not his spot. He's two and six ats on 435 00:22:25.599 --> 00:22:27.799 the road as a favorite over seven. It's just not 436 00:22:27.880 --> 00:22:28.279 his spot. 437 00:22:28.440 --> 00:22:31.039 And then you got Miami coming off of a of 438 00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:34.759 a blowout. It's just another trend thing, Miami coming off 439 00:22:34.799 --> 00:22:37.319 of a blowout. When the next game, if they're a 440 00:22:37.319 --> 00:22:41.799 home dog, fifteen to seven ATS, So you know, do 441 00:22:41.920 --> 00:22:42.359 I think. 442 00:22:42.359 --> 00:22:44.599 They blow a team out and they get blown out, 443 00:22:44.880 --> 00:22:48.440 and cause that's what I mean. They literally won million, 444 00:22:48.640 --> 00:22:51.160 lost by a million, and now they're dogs. 445 00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:54.680 I know they're a weird team, but yeah, I just 446 00:22:54.759 --> 00:22:56.400 I don't know. That's why I did two units on 447 00:22:56.400 --> 00:22:57.039 the nine and a half. 448 00:22:57.400 --> 00:22:58.640 It is still nine and a half, right. 449 00:22:59.000 --> 00:23:02.480 Yep, Okay, I just I feel good about that. Obviously, 450 00:23:02.480 --> 00:23:04.559 I don't feel great about them winning the game. But 451 00:23:04.640 --> 00:23:08.920 we've seen weird, weird shit happen in Miami in this division. 452 00:23:08.960 --> 00:23:11.839 Even New England was great and doing their thing. They 453 00:23:11.839 --> 00:23:14.640 would come down here to this fucking swamp and just 454 00:23:14.799 --> 00:23:16.160 fucking weird and scripting that. 455 00:23:16.279 --> 00:23:16.440 Man. 456 00:23:19.240 --> 00:23:21.880 Yeah, so this one is just a big old no 457 00:23:22.000 --> 00:23:23.519 call for me. So power Ring is great as a 458 00:23:23.519 --> 00:23:25.240 no call, believe it or not. At nine and a half, 459 00:23:25.279 --> 00:23:27.480 it's a fair number, which is why you see nine 460 00:23:27.519 --> 00:23:29.640 and a half literally across the board with no juice 461 00:23:29.640 --> 00:23:33.400 on anything. It's just the fairest number. I've got it. 462 00:23:33.440 --> 00:23:36.279 Buffalo win in twenty nine to twenty that's a no 463 00:23:36.400 --> 00:23:38.359 call as well. It's right on the number. I've got 464 00:23:38.359 --> 00:23:40.000 the total. The total is it fifty. I've got a 465 00:23:40.039 --> 00:23:41.759 grade at forty nine that's a no call right on 466 00:23:41.799 --> 00:23:43.960 the number. Now, it's not a good matchup for Tuoa. 467 00:23:44.319 --> 00:23:46.279 It actually is a good matchup for Josh Allen, who, 468 00:23:46.359 --> 00:23:48.519 by the way, it's not been great now great this 469 00:23:48.599 --> 00:23:51.200 year versus a lot of teams. No, it's definitely not 470 00:23:51.240 --> 00:23:53.680 his best year. But he does great out good against 471 00:23:53.680 --> 00:23:56.400 this one. However, what does give me a little hope 472 00:23:56.400 --> 00:23:56.759 for your. 473 00:23:56.640 --> 00:24:01.559 Miami covered It's hm, isn't it. Yeah, yeah, it has 474 00:24:01.640 --> 00:24:03.359 to be like this is the spot for him. 475 00:24:03.559 --> 00:24:04.599 Yeah, this is his spot. 476 00:24:04.640 --> 00:24:04.799 Now. 477 00:24:04.799 --> 00:24:07.279 Buffalo grades up pretty well against run the ball too, 478 00:24:07.480 --> 00:24:10.160 So I mean I think they I think that fifties 479 00:24:10.200 --> 00:24:12.799 live to maybe go over. I've got slightly under. But 480 00:24:12.799 --> 00:24:15.200 again it's a no coal within anything within one. 481 00:24:16.599 --> 00:24:19.200 They playing goddamn pee wee football on Denver. This is 482 00:24:20.119 --> 00:24:22.519 it's just I'm serious about to turn this fucking game on. 483 00:24:22.599 --> 00:24:25.200 I can't even this is distracting me. I can't fucking 484 00:24:25.279 --> 00:24:27.599 focus with with He's. 485 00:24:27.359 --> 00:24:31.000 Throwing bombs and the ball's just hitting the grounds. 486 00:24:31.119 --> 00:24:34.240 It's hanging up a star over there man talking about Bofield. 487 00:24:35.759 --> 00:24:37.799 He's throwing the ball like when you ever see the 488 00:24:37.799 --> 00:24:42.160 ball get thrown up deep and literally the nobody touches 489 00:24:42.200 --> 00:24:45.799 it the receiver. It wasn't overthrown, it was underthrown. Nobody 490 00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:48.000 touched it. It just hits the ground like that, like I'm 491 00:24:48.039 --> 00:24:49.680 watching a goddamn pee wee football game. 492 00:24:49.680 --> 00:24:50.759 It's fucking terrible. 493 00:24:51.240 --> 00:24:53.440 How do you overthrow a ball when you're a mile high? 494 00:24:53.480 --> 00:24:56.039 Like that's God damn, I can't. 495 00:24:56.119 --> 00:24:59.960 He's fucking so all right, carry on. Just I gut watching. 496 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:02.160 So I don't disagree with your pick at all. But 497 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:04.319 both the numbers printed out, It's just a big old 498 00:25:04.319 --> 00:25:06.000 fet no call for me. I'm not gonna have anything 499 00:25:06.000 --> 00:25:08.680 on this game. But again I cannot. I mean, if 500 00:25:08.720 --> 00:25:11.799 Buffalo covers this number, I will be fucking shocked. I 501 00:25:11.839 --> 00:25:16.839 really will, because this is just it's ridiculous. Number is 502 00:25:16.880 --> 00:25:20.640 too fucking big. It's too fucking big. So I agree 503 00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:22.440 with you and the way you handicap. I knew you 504 00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:25.359 were probably coming in on Miami, and I can't disagree. 505 00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:28.160 All right, Let's move on to those New York jay 506 00:25:28.839 --> 00:25:34.039 E t s Jeff Jets. We trade over players the 507 00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:40.640 way Jets ah now preseason this, Uh, this is kind 508 00:25:40.640 --> 00:25:44.160 of funny. So I think, oh god, I had a 509 00:25:44.240 --> 00:25:48.240 minus five. Vegas had a minus two and a half. 510 00:25:48.279 --> 00:25:52.319 They're sitting at I believe plus two and a half 511 00:25:52.319 --> 00:25:57.799 at this point. Yeah, plus uh plus you can actually 512 00:25:57.839 --> 00:26:00.880 get some flat twos, all right, A serf as a 513 00:26:00.920 --> 00:26:04.680 flat two, West gets a flat two. So yeah, let's 514 00:26:04.680 --> 00:26:07.559 call it to actually because it's a half. 515 00:26:08.079 --> 00:26:11.400 Yeah, dick, all right, Well, I. 516 00:26:11.400 --> 00:26:13.319 Mean you still get it to And I'm looking for more. 517 00:26:13.720 --> 00:26:16.079 There's only one. There's some. There's a one out there. 518 00:26:16.680 --> 00:26:19.039 It's at two on mine. So I'll be, I'll be, 519 00:26:19.400 --> 00:26:21.000 I'll be fair with it. That's fine. 520 00:26:24.640 --> 00:26:28.799 Plus I'm seeing plus one ten am I correct on 521 00:26:28.920 --> 00:26:30.960 money one money line. 522 00:26:31.160 --> 00:26:34.160 But before we get to that, the Jets do we buy? 523 00:26:34.400 --> 00:26:38.400 Do we sell? Do we hold? We we? We two 524 00:26:38.440 --> 00:26:39.920 first round picks three years ago. 525 00:26:40.680 --> 00:26:42.759 We bust out two wall pros one and offense one 526 00:26:42.799 --> 00:26:44.599 on defense, get rid of them. 527 00:26:44.960 --> 00:26:47.240 We hired, we hire a good coach. We heard we 528 00:26:47.319 --> 00:26:49.759 hire a good coach. I get rid of wed a 529 00:26:49.799 --> 00:26:51.880 back coach, get rid of them. Aaron Rodgers bringing him, 530 00:26:51.920 --> 00:26:54.480 he's really good. Oh no, he sucks. Sell sell seal, 531 00:26:54.599 --> 00:26:54.920 get him. 532 00:26:56.319 --> 00:27:00.279 This team is they do not know. They don't know 533 00:27:00.319 --> 00:27:02.599 what the fuck they're doing is what it is? So 534 00:27:02.759 --> 00:27:04.720 and they never do they just cycle through these. 535 00:27:04.960 --> 00:27:06.119 Oh well, we got hope. 536 00:27:06.119 --> 00:27:08.119 Now we got all these first round picks, second round pick, 537 00:27:08.160 --> 00:27:08.839 we fleece people. 538 00:27:09.359 --> 00:27:11.599 We got two first round picks, Like, we just trade 539 00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:14.160 away two of the best people at their position. Do 540 00:27:14.200 --> 00:27:16.720 you think that you might get those people back at 541 00:27:16.960 --> 00:27:17.880 first Maybe? 542 00:27:18.119 --> 00:27:21.480 Maybe? But this but this is their excitement. This is 543 00:27:21.519 --> 00:27:22.279 their super Bowl. 544 00:27:22.319 --> 00:27:24.440 They they just want a super Bowl that when they 545 00:27:24.440 --> 00:27:26.799 make all these moves, this is when they feel the best. 546 00:27:26.839 --> 00:27:28.640 This is the best it gets for the Jets. If 547 00:27:28.640 --> 00:27:31.279 you're a Jets fan, you just want a super Bowl. 548 00:27:31.440 --> 00:27:34.839 You've got excitement, you've got hope. When the games happen, 549 00:27:34.960 --> 00:27:37.400 that's when it goes to shit. But not this week, 550 00:27:37.640 --> 00:27:38.720 not this week. 551 00:27:38.759 --> 00:27:41.200 It doesn't have to happen. Now. Now we're feeling good. 552 00:27:41.400 --> 00:27:43.720 This is our bounce back spot. So Bill Stevens, find 553 00:27:43.720 --> 00:27:46.240 that sounder button and hit it when you get a chance, 554 00:27:46.279 --> 00:27:50.319 because I am doing it. I am picking against the 555 00:27:50.480 --> 00:27:54.160 coach now the Tennessee coaches fired. The coach I hate 556 00:27:54.200 --> 00:27:57.559 the most in this fucking league is Airing's overrated ass. 557 00:27:57.640 --> 00:28:02.599 Glenn Eveland does not play good defense on the road. 558 00:28:02.799 --> 00:28:05.000 They don't play defense on the road. 559 00:28:05.440 --> 00:28:07.079 And I know they lost all. I know, they lost 560 00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:07.400 a lot. 561 00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:09.839 Of players, but this, this is an overreaction. There's too 562 00:28:09.920 --> 00:28:11.799 many points that have been that have been swapped. You 563 00:28:11.920 --> 00:28:15.519 got Dylan Gabriel on the road as a favorite. We're 564 00:28:15.720 --> 00:28:18.119 we're we're in law. We're in crazy land right now 565 00:28:18.119 --> 00:28:21.359 that this is not happening. Now, the Jets could fuck me. 566 00:28:21.400 --> 00:28:24.279 They could lose by ten, obviously, that could for sure happen. 567 00:28:24.480 --> 00:28:26.039 They're the underdogs for the reason. 568 00:28:26.079 --> 00:28:28.559 As long as they can hold Cleveland the less than 569 00:28:28.559 --> 00:28:30.039 thirteen I feel good about. 570 00:28:31.119 --> 00:28:34.519 Yeah, yeah, so yeah, this was a this was gonna 571 00:28:34.519 --> 00:28:37.799 be in I like the Jets kind of, you know, 572 00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:40.400 at a low number as a favorite in this game, 573 00:28:40.559 --> 00:28:42.359 and just because of the Cleveland, you know, the whole 574 00:28:42.400 --> 00:28:45.799 Cleveland thing. And but yeah, now that we're we're getting points, 575 00:28:46.079 --> 00:28:49.640 way too much of an old reaction for for players, yes, 576 00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:53.559 really good players, but but. 577 00:28:55.400 --> 00:28:59.640 Zero too much, too much. So yeah, go Jets. 578 00:29:00.119 --> 00:29:03.440 One undercent agreement. For me, this is one of my 579 00:29:03.480 --> 00:29:05.359 favorite plays of the week. I just hadn't made it 580 00:29:05.400 --> 00:29:07.680 yet because I was hoping to see those numbers keep 581 00:29:07.799 --> 00:29:10.880 rising again. It looks like two and a half it's 582 00:29:10.920 --> 00:29:12.920 hit its head. I'm hoping some more of those become 583 00:29:12.920 --> 00:29:15.359 widely available as all lucks. It only went out right now, 584 00:29:15.440 --> 00:29:21.799 so hopefully it doesn't keep going towards the Cleveland side. 585 00:29:21.799 --> 00:29:25.519 Although Cleveland's still taking the money currently, so we'll see 586 00:29:25.519 --> 00:29:28.680 which way it goes. So hopefully it'll hopefully Cleveland continues 587 00:29:28.680 --> 00:29:34.160 to take the money and it well, no, I want 588 00:29:34.200 --> 00:29:36.720 the justice art. No, you know, we're right, Cleveland continue 589 00:29:36.759 --> 00:29:37.200 to take the money. 590 00:29:37.319 --> 00:29:38.720 Well, yeah, you went Cleveland to take the money so 591 00:29:38.759 --> 00:29:40.160 you can get it. I mean, if it was at 592 00:29:40.160 --> 00:29:41.920 two and a half, I was going to do one 593 00:29:42.000 --> 00:29:43.720 unit on the two and a half, one unit on 594 00:29:43.880 --> 00:29:47.839 the money line. But two is kind of that dead man. 595 00:29:48.160 --> 00:29:50.720 I like your I like your one ten sounder there, Yeah, 596 00:29:50.759 --> 00:29:53.640 thirty seven and a Half's where the total sitting. Gross. 597 00:29:54.160 --> 00:29:55.880 I guess what I've got it great of going under that. 598 00:29:55.920 --> 00:29:57.960 Why wouldn't I. I've got the Jets win this game 599 00:29:58.000 --> 00:30:02.480 twenty to fourteen? Can they score twenty points? God only knows? 600 00:30:03.480 --> 00:30:06.079 Fairly confident they could hold the Browns to fourteen though, 601 00:30:06.640 --> 00:30:09.960 So I like that. Both quarterbacks great out flat. Uh 602 00:30:10.000 --> 00:30:11.640 Here's what I don't like though, It's not a good 603 00:30:11.640 --> 00:30:14.359 matchup for the Jets running game. I don't like that, 604 00:30:15.039 --> 00:30:18.400 but it's not a great matchup for Cleveland's running game either. Look, 605 00:30:18.480 --> 00:30:20.839 this should be a nasty one. Maybe there's it's gonna 606 00:30:20.839 --> 00:30:24.640 have to be like a special teams play or defensive. 607 00:30:24.279 --> 00:30:25.400 It's gonna have to be justin fields. 608 00:30:25.559 --> 00:30:28.119 Justin fields is your path to getting enough points to 609 00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:31.480 win this game. The pass rush should flush him out 610 00:30:31.839 --> 00:30:33.759 so that he can make some plays with his legs, because, 611 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:35.279 let's face it, he sucks with his arm. 612 00:30:35.359 --> 00:30:37.799 So yeah, he's got nothing to lose this point. But 613 00:30:38.279 --> 00:30:40.119 here's another reason why I really like this pick. So 614 00:30:40.279 --> 00:30:43.119 both these teams coming off the by and coming off 615 00:30:43.119 --> 00:30:44.920 the bus twenty twelve. If you were a home dog, 616 00:30:45.119 --> 00:30:48.559 fourteen nine and one six percent ats, if you're a 617 00:30:48.880 --> 00:30:51.640 road favorite thirteen fifteen to two forty six point four 618 00:30:51.680 --> 00:30:54.880 percent ATS. So we got trends going our way. I 619 00:30:54.960 --> 00:30:56.640 like the game plan going our way. I like the 620 00:30:56.640 --> 00:30:58.559 spot going our way. And I'm with you, it's too much. 621 00:30:58.599 --> 00:31:01.039 It's just too much of an no reaction. Hopefully the 622 00:31:01.200 --> 00:31:04.079 just don't just totally kick us in the balls once again? 623 00:31:04.200 --> 00:31:06.039 Is they? They have kicked me in the balls more 624 00:31:06.039 --> 00:31:09.480 times this season than any other team, for sure. I 625 00:31:09.559 --> 00:31:11.720 keep trying to like all this is the spot. This 626 00:31:11.839 --> 00:31:15.680 looks like it could be. It never fucking is maybe 627 00:31:16.000 --> 00:31:19.400 just fucking maybe. I mean, Bryce Young beat me with 628 00:31:19.440 --> 00:31:22.960 thirteen points, hopefully to God, Dylan Gabel can't beat me 629 00:31:23.000 --> 00:31:27.200 with fourteen fucking points? We score? Can we score twenty points? 630 00:31:28.319 --> 00:31:30.440 I think seventeen seventeen? 631 00:31:31.079 --> 00:31:33.200 Where's my baby, Bill, hitch drop bed. 632 00:31:33.480 --> 00:31:35.960 I ain't asking for the world here, I'm just asking 633 00:31:35.960 --> 00:31:40.359 for eight ball and two million dollars. That's seven and 634 00:31:40.480 --> 00:31:41.640 seventeen points. 635 00:31:41.839 --> 00:31:43.880 That's it. That's it. 636 00:31:43.640 --> 00:31:44.839 That back in the game. 637 00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:49.319 By the way, who geno back in the game and driving, driving, 638 00:31:49.599 --> 00:31:51.799 actually throwing the ball forward and getting yards. 639 00:31:53.319 --> 00:31:54.960 I didn't know. I didn't think you were allowed to 640 00:31:55.000 --> 00:31:59.119 do that in this game. You certainly can't wear an orange. 641 00:31:58.880 --> 00:32:02.079 Gino smith will less Gino. But justin fields one least rug. 642 00:32:02.279 --> 00:32:04.839 Yeah. I need, bitch, I need for you to do 643 00:32:04.920 --> 00:32:05.880 your fucking job. 644 00:32:06.440 --> 00:32:09.920 God, please God, just fucking run if it's not there, 645 00:32:10.400 --> 00:32:13.960 just I mean, carry the ball fifteen times. Carry the 646 00:32:14.000 --> 00:32:17.519 ball fifteen fucking times. You'll get five yards on average 647 00:32:17.559 --> 00:32:20.599 every time you do it. Move the sticks, kick the field, goals, 648 00:32:20.759 --> 00:32:21.240 get the win. 649 00:32:22.759 --> 00:32:24.599 For the love of God, all right, speaking of the 650 00:32:24.640 --> 00:32:29.039 love of God, Houston Jacksonville, so Houston. Those Houston Texans 651 00:32:29.039 --> 00:32:32.000 with an H don't know if their quarterback is gonna 652 00:32:32.000 --> 00:32:34.880 be in on this one. I feel still hanging on 653 00:32:35.160 --> 00:32:38.599 as the favorite here. Minus one across the board pretty flat. 654 00:32:39.119 --> 00:32:42.839 Surkha's got a pick, so they're heading harder than anybody else. 655 00:32:42.880 --> 00:32:45.240 But that ain't much of a hedge Longhorn, to be 656 00:32:45.240 --> 00:32:49.160 honest with you. Now, the preseason line, obviously that's with 657 00:32:49.240 --> 00:32:51.480 the quarterback. So let's think about this preseason line with 658 00:32:51.559 --> 00:32:57.079 the quarterback. In all things being equal, I had Jacksonville 659 00:32:57.119 --> 00:32:59.559 plus six. Vegas had a plus three and a half. 660 00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:03.160 Let's say Vegas is more right than me. And we're 661 00:33:03.160 --> 00:33:07.880 looking at four and a half points from uh CJ 662 00:33:08.279 --> 00:33:13.480 to Davis Mills. It seems rich for as bad as 663 00:33:13.519 --> 00:33:16.079 CJ has been playing. But we saw, we all got 664 00:33:16.079 --> 00:33:18.200 a good reminder of Davis Mills last week, and how 665 00:33:18.400 --> 00:33:22.279 fucking on He's not even an NFL quarterback. Yeah, we 666 00:33:22.279 --> 00:33:23.680 can say CJ is not having a good year, but 667 00:33:23.720 --> 00:33:26.079 he at least is an NFL quarterback. Davis Mills is 668 00:33:26.079 --> 00:33:29.880 not an NFL quarterback at all in any capacity. And 669 00:33:29.920 --> 00:33:32.799 this Jacksonville defense. Longhorn has been heating up and heating 670 00:33:32.880 --> 00:33:37.279 up and heating up. His pastor has been heating up. Dude, 671 00:33:37.400 --> 00:33:38.480 I don't know how. I don't know how you get 672 00:33:38.480 --> 00:33:41.119 back Davis Mills. I really just don't, especially at one point, 673 00:33:41.480 --> 00:33:42.400 I don't know what we're doing. 674 00:33:43.000 --> 00:33:44.920 Yeah, I don't. I don't know how either. 675 00:33:45.759 --> 00:33:49.480 I don't know why it's gone down to pick when 676 00:33:49.519 --> 00:33:51.640 it's it's it's gonna be Davis Mills. 677 00:33:51.680 --> 00:33:55.559 I mean, I mean that that's I mean. 678 00:33:56.200 --> 00:33:58.279 Seven and a half by the way, another just gross 679 00:33:58.319 --> 00:33:59.279 ass fucking. 680 00:33:59.200 --> 00:34:00.799 I was kind of way to get like the two 681 00:34:00.839 --> 00:34:03.519 to two and a half with Houston and then and 682 00:34:03.559 --> 00:34:05.880 fire on that, and we're we're down to pick. 683 00:34:06.000 --> 00:34:09.800 Like I don't I don't like. I don't like this 684 00:34:09.880 --> 00:34:10.280 at all. 685 00:34:10.519 --> 00:34:13.079 So I'm staying away for this until I get some 686 00:34:13.079 --> 00:34:16.960 some more information. But it just and this one if 687 00:34:16.960 --> 00:34:20.360 it gets to Houston Houston plus two, I mean, like 688 00:34:20.800 --> 00:34:25.360 taking t L as a road favorite against this defense 689 00:34:25.480 --> 00:34:27.440 just doesn't feel right. But then yeah, you but then 690 00:34:27.480 --> 00:34:29.760 you have to feel good about Davis Mills on the 691 00:34:29.840 --> 00:34:32.119 other side. And I don't want any Look, I'm not 692 00:34:32.159 --> 00:34:33.559 gonna be bet in this game. So we don't have 693 00:34:33.559 --> 00:34:34.960 to spend a lot of time on it. It's it's 694 00:34:34.960 --> 00:34:37.079 a kind of a stay away from me and and 695 00:34:37.960 --> 00:34:41.079 the Houston Texans broke my heart last week when they 696 00:34:41.119 --> 00:34:44.400 were for sure gonna beat this fucking shitty ass Denver team. 697 00:34:44.800 --> 00:34:47.039 If Stroud doesn't get hurt in the first quarter, it's 698 00:34:47.079 --> 00:34:49.599 not a doubt in my mind that they beat Denver. 699 00:34:49.800 --> 00:34:53.639 And until my mind as Denver makes Las Vegas, I. 700 00:34:53.639 --> 00:34:57.079 Told you don't win this game like it's what's looking like. 701 00:34:57.599 --> 00:35:00.440 Or or Bow is gonna get He's gonna throw screen 702 00:35:00.480 --> 00:35:02.480 pass here in a second that goes for seventy yards 703 00:35:02.519 --> 00:35:03.880 and they'll win seventeen to seven. 704 00:35:04.159 --> 00:35:06.920 He is fourteen for twenty five per one hundred and 705 00:35:06.960 --> 00:35:08.159 twenty seven yards. 706 00:35:08.599 --> 00:35:09.119 Is that good? 707 00:35:09.440 --> 00:35:10.239 God? 708 00:35:11.119 --> 00:35:13.280 All right, let's move on to those. Let's move on 709 00:35:13.320 --> 00:35:15.599 to a game that should be an entertaining one. Those 710 00:35:15.960 --> 00:35:18.880 Tampa Bakers coming fresh off the BA House and nose 711 00:35:19.400 --> 00:35:22.119 upstart surprise, kick me in the balls, New England. 712 00:35:21.920 --> 00:35:26.360 Super Bowl preview question mark question mark. 713 00:35:26.760 --> 00:35:30.360 Well maybe so, maybe so we'll see, all right. Preseason 714 00:35:30.360 --> 00:35:32.760 line on this tack down quite a bit. I had 715 00:35:33.840 --> 00:35:35.840 tam a minus five. Vegas had a minus four and 716 00:35:35.880 --> 00:35:38.239 a half or sit at two and a half. Obviously 717 00:35:38.559 --> 00:35:40.719 huge upgrade. It's all all the upgrade is on the 718 00:35:40.760 --> 00:35:44.320 New England side. Obviously from the preseason look ahead to this, 719 00:35:45.079 --> 00:35:48.039 uh total sitting at forty eight. Holy shit, we gotta 720 00:35:48.199 --> 00:35:50.239 we got a total in the forties. I swear to god, 721 00:35:50.280 --> 00:35:52.360 I thought we were done seeing totals in the thirties 722 00:35:53.639 --> 00:35:56.480 like four years ago, unless it was a snowstorm or 723 00:35:56.559 --> 00:35:58.920 half a team died. And we've got totals in the 724 00:35:58.920 --> 00:36:00.760 thirties all up and down the fucking card. But at 725 00:36:00.840 --> 00:36:03.039 least this one is a real fucking It's a real 726 00:36:03.079 --> 00:36:05.599 fucking number forty eight. So what you got on this 727 00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:06.320 long one? 728 00:36:07.840 --> 00:36:07.960 Oh? 729 00:36:08.039 --> 00:36:10.679 I was trying to find I'll have to pull that 730 00:36:10.760 --> 00:36:11.639 up whenever you're doing that. 731 00:36:12.039 --> 00:36:12.480 I think. 732 00:36:13.000 --> 00:36:17.000 I think Tampa Bay is getting Guardeki backed if that's 733 00:36:17.039 --> 00:36:19.800 how you pronounce his name, the offensive tackle, so they 734 00:36:19.800 --> 00:36:20.800 should be healthy there. 735 00:36:20.880 --> 00:36:21.519 I know that. 736 00:36:24.400 --> 00:36:28.159 Godwin is ruled out so they're not getting him back, 737 00:36:28.199 --> 00:36:28.800 which they hope. 738 00:36:28.800 --> 00:36:30.400 They said he's not going to come back for like 739 00:36:30.440 --> 00:36:31.760 another four weeks. 740 00:36:31.800 --> 00:36:35.639 Right, so, but they are healthier than they were coming 741 00:36:35.639 --> 00:36:39.199 off the by and obviously with New England, you're concerned 742 00:36:39.239 --> 00:36:41.599 with New England. They haven't had a letdown spot, which 743 00:36:41.920 --> 00:36:44.559 we've kind of or at least I have certainly tried 744 00:36:44.599 --> 00:36:48.000 to find that letdown spot at times during this winning streak. 745 00:36:48.360 --> 00:36:49.159 Just hasn't happened. 746 00:36:49.360 --> 00:36:51.559 Let down. Last week in Atlanta, d May didn't play 747 00:36:51.559 --> 00:36:52.519 his best game. 748 00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:52.920 That was. 749 00:36:54.719 --> 00:36:57.159 For sure, well for sure, but it did take you know, 750 00:36:57.239 --> 00:36:59.280 three touchdowns to one guy and kind of throw up. 751 00:36:59.519 --> 00:37:02.440 But they just keep winning, is the point, and you 752 00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:05.920 know they're but but this is a huge step up 753 00:37:05.960 --> 00:37:08.280 in competition and the only win that they have really 754 00:37:08.320 --> 00:37:11.840 on their entire board is the Buffalo win, which was 755 00:37:11.960 --> 00:37:16.480 which was very impressive. So I want to look this 756 00:37:16.559 --> 00:37:18.079 is this is gonna be my fid in the middle. 757 00:37:18.280 --> 00:37:20.480 You know, there's I'm on a lot of teachers this week. 758 00:37:20.760 --> 00:37:23.960 I'm not playing back the other sides on very many 759 00:37:24.039 --> 00:37:26.719 of them, if any, but this one I will be. 760 00:37:26.960 --> 00:37:31.920 So I'm gimme Tampa. Where the points are, you know, 761 00:37:32.000 --> 00:37:34.320 minus two mins two and a half. Well, I'll see 762 00:37:34.320 --> 00:37:36.079 what this line does. Because I've already teased up New 763 00:37:36.079 --> 00:37:38.159 England to the eight and a half. I would love 764 00:37:38.199 --> 00:37:39.039 to see this tick. 765 00:37:38.920 --> 00:37:41.119 Down to one and a half on Tampa. 766 00:37:41.440 --> 00:37:43.440 Maybe you buy down to one, maybe you just bust 767 00:37:43.440 --> 00:37:45.320 out the money line at that point. But I'm gonna 768 00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:46.920 be trying to play both sides of this game because 769 00:37:46.960 --> 00:37:49.280 I think Tampa in a close game, which I think 770 00:37:49.280 --> 00:37:51.000 we think this is gonna be because it's two really 771 00:37:51.039 --> 00:37:54.519 good teams. You know, you got Baker in a close game. 772 00:37:54.559 --> 00:37:55.960 That's kind of the spot you want to be at. 773 00:37:56.199 --> 00:37:59.559 It's just just that's just what he thrives on and 774 00:37:59.800 --> 00:38:01.880 h But but since I do think it's gonna be 775 00:38:01.920 --> 00:38:04.159 close game and I think they can keep it close, 776 00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:06.480 it's the plus eight and a half on the teaser 777 00:38:06.519 --> 00:38:08.039 side feels really good. 778 00:38:08.880 --> 00:38:12.159 Yeah, So I was just looking up their schedule. This 779 00:38:12.239 --> 00:38:14.360 is gonna shock you because it just shocked me and 780 00:38:14.440 --> 00:38:17.880 you just kind of mentioned it. New England per dB 781 00:38:18.039 --> 00:38:20.880 A has played the hardest schedule so far in the 782 00:38:20.960 --> 00:38:21.960 National Football League. 783 00:38:22.079 --> 00:38:23.960 How they've beaten Tennessee the Saints. 784 00:38:25.719 --> 00:38:29.800 How Buffalo's played the thirty the second hardest schedule in 785 00:38:29.880 --> 00:38:37.840 all of so interception brownicks by the way, Oh wait wait, oh, 786 00:38:37.960 --> 00:38:41.000 I'm sorry, easiest, my bad numbers backers. They played the 787 00:38:41.280 --> 00:38:43.519 schedule Buffalos played the second easiest, cause yeah, they played 788 00:38:43.519 --> 00:38:43.880 the easiest. 789 00:38:43.920 --> 00:38:45.800 Guy about to say, because they have played all the 790 00:38:45.800 --> 00:38:46.639 worst teams. 791 00:38:46.840 --> 00:38:48.400 Yeah, I knew, I knew that had to be wrong. 792 00:38:48.400 --> 00:38:50.880 I was like, I can't feel right. Tampa Bay, on 793 00:38:50.880 --> 00:38:53.079 the flip side of that, has played the seventh hardest schedule, 794 00:38:54.159 --> 00:38:57.039 which we mentioned that in the preseason, like, hey, don't 795 00:38:57.079 --> 00:39:00.119 be surprised that Tampa Bay team starts out possibly two 796 00:39:00.119 --> 00:39:02.000 and four with this early schedule, because it is a 797 00:39:02.039 --> 00:39:05.760 fucking murderers row. They've walked out of it in handsome 798 00:39:05.800 --> 00:39:09.840 fashion with the seventh hardest schedule. Going forward, Tampa Bay 799 00:39:09.880 --> 00:39:12.960 has the seventh easiest schedule. And again we talked about 800 00:39:12.960 --> 00:39:16.119 the preseason, the back half after they're by this is 801 00:39:16.119 --> 00:39:18.320 really where Tama Bay was supposed to start rolling, Like 802 00:39:18.360 --> 00:39:20.960 this division was supposed to be kind of middling. They're 803 00:39:21.039 --> 00:39:22.559 kind of like, oh my god, what's wrong with Tampa 804 00:39:22.559 --> 00:39:24.159 Bay and blah blah blah blah, Hey, just hang on, 805 00:39:24.599 --> 00:39:26.920 don't pay if they start down you know too early, 806 00:39:27.320 --> 00:39:29.719 they'll be all right. Well, they've been better than alright, 807 00:39:29.760 --> 00:39:31.480 and now they're supposed to be on easy Street for 808 00:39:31.519 --> 00:39:33.800 the rest of the year. So your Super Bowl preview, 809 00:39:33.840 --> 00:39:37.039 at least on the NFC side, could come to fruition there, 810 00:39:37.079 --> 00:39:39.360 my friend, because Tampa Bay has gotten a lot of 811 00:39:39.360 --> 00:39:41.679 easy cakes in front of them, and like you said, 812 00:39:41.719 --> 00:39:44.239 they're gonna get healthier than being getting healthier, and they're 813 00:39:44.239 --> 00:39:46.920 not gonna get Mike Evans back. That is a big 814 00:39:47.039 --> 00:39:47.840 chink in that armor. 815 00:39:48.119 --> 00:39:51.000 He could come back for the playoffs, though, right I 816 00:39:51.039 --> 00:39:51.480 don't know. 817 00:39:51.719 --> 00:39:52.000 I don't know. 818 00:39:52.079 --> 00:39:54.400 I think I think if he I mean, they're gonna 819 00:39:54.400 --> 00:39:56.320 wait the playoffs, so maybe it's a chance he comes 820 00:39:56.360 --> 00:39:57.440 back at some point this season. 821 00:39:58.840 --> 00:40:01.159 I do like your teaser here though, and I wanted 822 00:40:01.159 --> 00:40:02.920 to bet Tampa Bay. I couldn't just because of the 823 00:40:02.920 --> 00:40:05.360 spot and then with the numbers. Now, the power rings 824 00:40:05.360 --> 00:40:06.840 that have Tampa Bay and my power rings has been 825 00:40:06.880 --> 00:40:09.039 very good this year. Just straight up, you just bet them, 826 00:40:09.440 --> 00:40:11.400 we would definitely be up on the year instead of 827 00:40:11.400 --> 00:40:14.840 where we're at total forty eight. I've got it going 828 00:40:15.000 --> 00:40:16.960 quite a bit under that, which kind of scares me 829 00:40:17.079 --> 00:40:19.079 when I see the numbers this far apart. But I've 830 00:40:19.079 --> 00:40:22.519 got it a tie game Tampa Bay twenty to twenty. Now, 831 00:40:22.519 --> 00:40:24.719 this is a good matchup for Baker, it's a flat 832 00:40:24.760 --> 00:40:27.719 matchup for Drake May, but it's a bad matchup for 833 00:40:27.760 --> 00:40:31.599 both these running games here. So you know, this New 834 00:40:31.599 --> 00:40:33.559 England secondary, we've talked about it and talked about it, 835 00:40:33.559 --> 00:40:36.239 talked about a nauseom. It's not very good. Pretty much 836 00:40:36.239 --> 00:40:38.639 everybody makes yards on them, sports points on them through 837 00:40:38.679 --> 00:40:41.280 the secondary. The run defense has been stout. It's going 838 00:40:41.320 --> 00:40:44.320 to continue to be here. We have seen the Sampa 839 00:40:44.320 --> 00:40:46.639 Bay offense sputter at times when they can't get the 840 00:40:46.719 --> 00:40:49.000 running game going, but we've also seen the same thing 841 00:40:49.039 --> 00:40:51.400 for New England. So that's the reason why I do 842 00:40:51.599 --> 00:40:54.280 think the under is really in play here. That actually 843 00:40:54.320 --> 00:40:56.360 might make my card. And if you look at the 844 00:40:56.400 --> 00:41:00.519 spot since twenty twenty one, coming off off the buy 845 00:41:00.960 --> 00:41:03.239 home favored again twenty two to twenty eight and two, 846 00:41:04.000 --> 00:41:06.679 that was the spot we talked about for Detroit last 847 00:41:06.719 --> 00:41:09.800 week obviously got them. Tampa Bay is in that same 848 00:41:09.840 --> 00:41:11.760 spot average line of six and a half or sitting 849 00:41:11.760 --> 00:41:15.360 at two and a half on this one. So that 850 00:41:15.400 --> 00:41:16.679 gives you a little bit of hope though, because the 851 00:41:16.719 --> 00:41:18.840 cover line is flat on that so at six and 852 00:41:18.880 --> 00:41:21.519 a half. So technically because they're thirty nine thirteen to 853 00:41:21.639 --> 00:41:23.639 seventy five percent straight up winning by six points six 854 00:41:23.639 --> 00:41:26.000 points a game for six and a half points a game, 855 00:41:26.800 --> 00:41:29.920 so you could see a Tampa cover here. I like 856 00:41:29.960 --> 00:41:32.199 your teasers. I really like this teacher spot. I don't 857 00:41:32.239 --> 00:41:35.079 see them winning by margin, So I think it's a 858 00:41:35.079 --> 00:41:38.840 close game field goal. If I had to bet it, 859 00:41:39.159 --> 00:41:41.519 straight up, give me Baker less than a field goal 860 00:41:41.559 --> 00:41:45.519 at home almost always, even against a really good coach defense, 861 00:41:45.800 --> 00:41:48.519 because again, there are holes in the secondary, and Baker 862 00:41:48.679 --> 00:41:50.239 has shown that he can exploit that. He's done it 863 00:41:50.280 --> 00:41:54.239 all season long against a lot better competition. So I'll 864 00:41:54.320 --> 00:41:56.519 lean on the competition factor and the fact that I 865 00:41:56.599 --> 00:41:59.760 can trust Baker at home and Drake mayhe is on 866 00:41:59.760 --> 00:42:01.760 the road. He's still young quarterback. He's having a great season. 867 00:42:01.840 --> 00:42:05.639 Not knocking him at all, but you know, situationally, I'll 868 00:42:05.639 --> 00:42:08.320 take Tampa Bay there on a lean. Kind of really 869 00:42:08.360 --> 00:42:10.039 like that under the long worn I kind of really 870 00:42:10.079 --> 00:42:11.079 like that big number. 871 00:42:11.280 --> 00:42:11.920 It's a big number. 872 00:42:11.920 --> 00:42:14.119 It's a big number. All right, Let's move on to 873 00:42:14.159 --> 00:42:17.320 those Carolina Panthers game of the week hosting those New 874 00:42:17.440 --> 00:42:18.480 Orleans Saints. 875 00:42:18.559 --> 00:42:20.239 My Carolina Panthers. 876 00:42:20.639 --> 00:42:25.000 That's right, that's your Carolina Panthers. He's claiming them again. Yeah, 877 00:42:25.559 --> 00:42:30.000 funny on this one. I'm I was quite a bit off. 878 00:42:30.039 --> 00:42:32.159 I'm in New Orleans derailed. I knew they were bad, 879 00:42:32.159 --> 00:42:34.159 but Carolina's better than I thought they were gonna be. 880 00:42:34.599 --> 00:42:36.519 They said at four and a half, it's sitting at 881 00:42:36.679 --> 00:42:39.920 five and a half currently, pretty much across the boards. 882 00:42:39.920 --> 00:42:41.000 What do you got on this one long morning? 883 00:42:41.400 --> 00:42:43.440 Yeah, I'm gonna be on Carolina in this game. It's 884 00:42:43.519 --> 00:42:46.159 kind of one of those pick or poison spots that 885 00:42:46.159 --> 00:42:49.639 we've been talking about. It's like, you know, Carolina is 886 00:42:50.159 --> 00:42:52.840 all of this, although at home they're way way better 887 00:42:52.880 --> 00:42:57.840 than they are on the road. They also don't cover, 888 00:42:58.199 --> 00:43:00.440 so they just they're not They do not covered and 889 00:43:00.559 --> 00:43:02.559 not a covering team, although they. 890 00:43:02.440 --> 00:43:06.400 Are football every week. Though, that is my question, who 891 00:43:07.239 --> 00:43:11.559 Carolina because they're playing the worst team in football this week? 892 00:43:11.599 --> 00:43:15.199 So yeah, I mean, I mean that helps New Orleans 893 00:43:15.199 --> 00:43:18.159 can't stop the look, it really shouldn't matter with brysh 894 00:43:18.519 --> 00:43:20.000 This is not gonna be a Bruyshong game. This is 895 00:43:20.000 --> 00:43:21.760 gonna be just run the ball, run the ball, run 896 00:43:21.800 --> 00:43:26.000 the ball, by the way, which makes a lot of 897 00:43:26.079 --> 00:43:27.800 sense because the Saints can't score. 898 00:43:28.400 --> 00:43:30.639 We don't know how bad the Saints quarterback is. If 899 00:43:30.639 --> 00:43:31.039 this was. 900 00:43:31.039 --> 00:43:33.400 Rattler and you're getting what is it five and a half? 901 00:43:33.400 --> 00:43:36.199 The current Like that's a rattler line. For sure, you're 902 00:43:36.199 --> 00:43:41.199 gonna be probably leaning towards New New Orleans on that one, right, 903 00:43:41.199 --> 00:43:43.480 it'd probably be what what I mean, was it a 904 00:43:43.480 --> 00:43:44.760 two point difference in these guys? 905 00:43:44.920 --> 00:43:47.880 Maybe the pre the preseason line was four and a half. 906 00:43:47.920 --> 00:43:49.920 I gotta I gotta think it's to that. 907 00:43:50.280 --> 00:43:55.360 Okay, Yeah, so yeah, can can Tyler I fucking suck shuck? 908 00:43:55.519 --> 00:43:57.360 Can he just go out there and ball against a 909 00:43:57.360 --> 00:43:58.039 good defense? 910 00:43:58.079 --> 00:44:02.239 Now, let's let's call Carolina good deal a good defense. 911 00:44:02.239 --> 00:44:04.239 Oh then there you go, so like so, but you 912 00:44:04.280 --> 00:44:06.679 know the NFL, anything can happen. Yeah, it could happen. 913 00:44:06.960 --> 00:44:09.079 I'm not counting on it. I'm not betting to let. 914 00:44:09.039 --> 00:44:11.679 Them go shut down a really good offense in Green 915 00:44:11.679 --> 00:44:14.920 Bay on the road, on the road and like a 916 00:44:14.960 --> 00:44:17.679 million turnovers. It was like love was throwing the ball 917 00:44:17.679 --> 00:44:19.800 over the place. They couldn't get. 918 00:44:19.719 --> 00:44:22.519 First owns, the play to play. 919 00:44:22.719 --> 00:44:25.079 They're sound, they're never at a position you don't see 920 00:44:25.079 --> 00:44:28.480 the just busted plays against them. 921 00:44:28.599 --> 00:44:29.199 And they're good. 922 00:44:29.239 --> 00:44:31.239 And here's the thing, like a like a defense that 923 00:44:31.280 --> 00:44:34.719 fights hard, plays hard. If you're losing, you'll start to 924 00:44:34.719 --> 00:44:38.000 get the give up n they're five and four, they're 925 00:44:38.039 --> 00:44:40.599 they're you know, I know Tampa Bay is kind of 926 00:44:40.760 --> 00:44:43.599 running away with this division, but they keep doing this. 927 00:44:44.119 --> 00:44:46.199 Win this game for six or four, you're in the 928 00:44:46.239 --> 00:44:49.840 wild card position for sure. Yeah, it's it's no give 929 00:44:49.920 --> 00:44:51.760 up on defense, is what I'm saying. So, Tyler Schuck, 930 00:44:51.800 --> 00:44:53.159 you're in. You're in for a rough one. 931 00:44:53.960 --> 00:44:57.199 Could you imagine what the conversation would be if if 932 00:44:57.239 --> 00:44:59.920 Tampa Bay season went the way we thought it might 933 00:45:00.119 --> 00:45:02.519 go and they would have lost against those really good 934 00:45:02.559 --> 00:45:04.559 those you know, coin flip games. 935 00:45:04.119 --> 00:45:06.760 Really good teams if they're both five and four, yeah, 936 00:45:06.880 --> 00:45:10.960 or Tampa sitting at four and five, yeah or four 937 00:45:11.039 --> 00:45:12.320 whatever like yeah. 938 00:45:12.079 --> 00:45:14.320 This this will be a hold different conversation. Right now. 939 00:45:14.800 --> 00:45:16.840 I know I don't have much in this game because 940 00:45:16.840 --> 00:45:18.679 I don't have anything great shuck on except in fact, 941 00:45:18.719 --> 00:45:20.760 these fucking sucks. But I will say this, this is 942 00:45:20.800 --> 00:45:24.719 the absolute worst spot possible for the Saints. I mean, 943 00:45:24.840 --> 00:45:28.320 for yeah, for the Saints since twenty twenty one. If 944 00:45:28.400 --> 00:45:30.800 you're going on the by and you're a road dog, 945 00:45:31.760 --> 00:45:35.639 twelve and twenty two eight cs not covering, not covering 946 00:45:36.440 --> 00:45:38.559 by four point two points per game on an average 947 00:45:38.599 --> 00:45:40.639 line of five point eight. We're sitting at five and 948 00:45:40.679 --> 00:45:43.159 a half. They're losing this game on average by ten 949 00:45:43.320 --> 00:45:48.079 points nine to twenty five. Straight up. Yikes, fucking yikes. 950 00:45:48.079 --> 00:45:50.800 If you had like a pleaser, I wouldn't never call 951 00:45:50.840 --> 00:45:53.199 a pleaser for Carolina. But this is one of those 952 00:45:53.199 --> 00:45:56.039 situations where I think if New Orleans goes down like this, 953 00:45:56.079 --> 00:45:57.000 they're going down all the. 954 00:45:57.000 --> 00:45:59.400 Way and not and not that it matters a lot. 955 00:45:59.639 --> 00:46:03.079 New or traded one of those first round offensive linemen 956 00:46:04.039 --> 00:46:06.079 and during the during the trade deadline. 957 00:46:05.760 --> 00:46:07.440 To the charters, he wasn't good. 958 00:46:07.719 --> 00:46:10.079 But the guy that they're putting in there is like, 959 00:46:10.320 --> 00:46:12.280 I mean, it's a forty two point six on PFF, 960 00:46:12.360 --> 00:46:18.719 so he's even worse. But the signal to the team is, oh, 961 00:46:18.800 --> 00:46:20.760 there's yeah, they can they can get in the thirties. 962 00:46:21.039 --> 00:46:24.559 I've seen people in the thirties. Now, what is the 963 00:46:24.639 --> 00:46:26.760 signal to a team that's one in eight? 964 00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:28.800 I don't know, I mean, but like you know, it's 965 00:46:28.920 --> 00:46:30.960 it's probably not we don't think things. 966 00:46:30.800 --> 00:46:33.159 Are going well? What do you mean things aren't going well? 967 00:46:33.519 --> 00:46:33.559 What? 968 00:46:34.000 --> 00:46:34.719 We won one? 969 00:46:36.199 --> 00:46:38.639 Why didn't the Saint's trade for Sauce Gardener I didn't 970 00:46:38.639 --> 00:46:40.440 give up two first, I don't know if it's you 971 00:46:40.440 --> 00:46:41.320 could have gone all in. 972 00:46:41.960 --> 00:46:44.599 Well management, you don't have any faith in us? Is bullshit? 973 00:46:44.800 --> 00:46:48.000 Now I will say, why the fuck is Alvin kamaras? 974 00:46:48.039 --> 00:46:49.400 They're still on this team? I did. 975 00:46:49.519 --> 00:46:51.880 I did that video in the in the preseason that 976 00:46:52.039 --> 00:46:56.400 Kamara was either going to go to the the Chicago 977 00:46:56.480 --> 00:46:58.960 Bears or the Dallas Cowboys, because at that time I 978 00:46:58.960 --> 00:47:00.519 thought that the Dallas might be. 979 00:47:02.039 --> 00:47:05.199 At least in the hunt. And we'll see it. 980 00:47:05.280 --> 00:47:07.760 But yeah, why is he still there? Why are you 981 00:47:07.800 --> 00:47:10.000 still on the Saints? It makes no sense. They should 982 00:47:10.000 --> 00:47:11.800 have got whatever they can get for him. Maybe he 983 00:47:11.800 --> 00:47:13.519 doesn't want to go. Maybe he said, I don't don't 984 00:47:13.519 --> 00:47:13.840 trade me. 985 00:47:13.880 --> 00:47:14.599 I like it. 986 00:47:14.920 --> 00:47:17.599 Who knows he likes the food, man, it's good cooking 987 00:47:17.599 --> 00:47:18.960 down there in New Orleans. Why would you want to 988 00:47:19.039 --> 00:47:19.199 leave it? 989 00:47:20.599 --> 00:47:21.840 I guess all. 990 00:47:21.800 --> 00:47:24.960 Right, let's move on to those Chicago bess post of 991 00:47:24.960 --> 00:47:30.639 those New York football giants. Now this game, Uh, let's 992 00:47:30.639 --> 00:47:34.400 see where we're at. Preseason, I had, oh god, I 993 00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:36.639 had Chicago minus seven. Vegas had a minus five and 994 00:47:36.679 --> 00:47:41.840 a half. They're sitting at four and a half currently 995 00:47:42.480 --> 00:47:45.280 across the board, bothought us in at five. If you 996 00:47:45.360 --> 00:47:47.559 like the Giants shop around a little bit, but literally 997 00:47:47.559 --> 00:47:50.199 that's the only five left on the board. So it 998 00:47:50.320 --> 00:47:52.679 opened at three and a half. World Open immediately took 999 00:47:52.719 --> 00:47:54.639 all the Bears money sent it four and a half, 1000 00:47:54.719 --> 00:47:57.199 and it looks like we're banging its head on the top. 1001 00:47:57.280 --> 00:47:59.119 If you look at where the money's coming in now, 1002 00:48:00.079 --> 00:48:02.639 it is currently now coming back in on the Giants. 1003 00:48:02.639 --> 00:48:04.320 So we definitely have hit the top of the market, 1004 00:48:04.400 --> 00:48:06.440 long Horn. So four and a half the best you're 1005 00:48:06.440 --> 00:48:08.679 gonna get. I feel confident from that on the Giants. 1006 00:48:08.719 --> 00:48:11.400 If you want them, you better grab them at that number. 1007 00:48:11.519 --> 00:48:12.039 What do you like? 1008 00:48:13.440 --> 00:48:13.920 Yeah, I don't. 1009 00:48:14.800 --> 00:48:17.719 I'm not sure why. I don't have a reason to 1010 00:48:17.840 --> 00:48:20.920 not be on Chicago here, I really don't. This is 1011 00:48:20.960 --> 00:48:24.920 gonna be a weather game, definitely cold, possible snow, and 1012 00:48:24.960 --> 00:48:27.079 we've got the running game of Chicago, which if you're 1013 00:48:27.119 --> 00:48:31.000 not paying attention that this running game, and with the 1014 00:48:31.039 --> 00:48:35.480 struggles of Detroit, it's weird how Detroit's having problems with 1015 00:48:35.559 --> 00:48:39.519 their running game and Chicago's becoming one of the juggernauts 1016 00:48:39.599 --> 00:48:43.159 running the ball. Maybe Ben Johnson is more than just 1017 00:48:43.239 --> 00:48:47.920 a crazy plays and and throw the ball around the ard. 1018 00:48:47.920 --> 00:48:48.840 Maybe he has a. 1019 00:48:48.760 --> 00:48:54.960 Little screen pass to your quarterback. 1020 00:48:55.239 --> 00:48:58.639 Caleb had two receptions last week, so the crazy ones 1021 00:48:58.719 --> 00:49:00.760 in there, they're. 1022 00:49:00.559 --> 00:49:01.480 Crazy was there. 1023 00:49:01.639 --> 00:49:04.280 But yeah, no, I I want I want to be 1024 00:49:04.360 --> 00:49:06.480 on like I want to fade the Giants so bad 1025 00:49:06.559 --> 00:49:09.519 right now. And I know that Jackson Dart has he's 1026 00:49:09.559 --> 00:49:11.239 proven that he's going to be the quarterback going forward, 1027 00:49:11.239 --> 00:49:13.920 at least in the immediate future. But you can only 1028 00:49:13.960 --> 00:49:16.400 lose so many key players, and you can only keep 1029 00:49:16.440 --> 00:49:20.119 losing so many games where at some point that the 1030 00:49:20.320 --> 00:49:24.519 just the rails come off the pass rush that is. 1031 00:49:24.519 --> 00:49:26.400 Their forte on the defensive line. 1032 00:49:26.800 --> 00:49:29.199 You know, you keep losing games that maybe you lose 1033 00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:31.199 half a step on on that one to go get 1034 00:49:31.199 --> 00:49:33.679 the quarterback. I don't know, man, Just for me, it's 1035 00:49:33.719 --> 00:49:37.599 all Chicago. The fact that the line is kind of 1036 00:49:37.639 --> 00:49:40.320 bouncing back and forth and hitting his head as you said, 1037 00:49:40.800 --> 00:49:42.719 that makes me have some pause because you know, I 1038 00:49:42.719 --> 00:49:46.239 don't like to go against you know, uh, sharp money necessarily, 1039 00:49:46.280 --> 00:49:47.760 but yeah, I want to. 1040 00:49:47.800 --> 00:49:49.719 I mean the sharp money came in early all on 1041 00:49:49.800 --> 00:49:51.440 Chicago to get it to four and a half. Now 1042 00:49:51.480 --> 00:49:53.400 that's where it's sitting there, So you you probably have 1043 00:49:53.559 --> 00:49:56.880 some sharp five back now, you know, because if you 1044 00:49:56.960 --> 00:49:59.519 got in at Chicago minus three and a half, all 1045 00:49:59.519 --> 00:50:02.119 the sharps, they're probably fiddling. 1046 00:50:01.880 --> 00:50:05.440 In the middle here on those on those key numbers. Yeah, 1047 00:50:05.639 --> 00:50:08.880 I can see that. So yeah, I'm gonna be on Chicago. Oh, 1048 00:50:09.000 --> 00:50:10.719 in my last point. 1049 00:50:11.280 --> 00:50:13.679 Vegas is mega fun, is what I think. 1050 00:50:15.000 --> 00:50:17.559 My last point, And let me flip it to Chicago. 1051 00:50:17.719 --> 00:50:22.440 On defense, Yeah, I don't know what is. I don't 1052 00:50:22.440 --> 00:50:24.880 know what is what their first names are because I've 1053 00:50:25.199 --> 00:50:28.920 TJ Edwards and and Edmunds the linebackers for Chicago, and 1054 00:50:28.920 --> 00:50:31.519 I can't remember Evans first name. I'm I apologize, but 1055 00:50:31.559 --> 00:50:36.039 basically my point was Jackson Dark, him running and creating 1056 00:50:36.079 --> 00:50:40.000 plays with his legs is kind of been like everything 1057 00:50:40.039 --> 00:50:42.039 for this team. Him and Scatabo had some things in 1058 00:50:42.039 --> 00:50:44.400 the passing game blah blah blah, but like right now, 1059 00:50:44.519 --> 00:50:47.719 it's basically Jackson Dark creating plays. You got two highly 1060 00:50:48.000 --> 00:50:53.039 highly athletic linebackers who each could play spy on Jackson 1061 00:50:53.119 --> 00:50:55.480 Dart and I and they're both great out very well 1062 00:50:55.480 --> 00:50:56.960 this year. So that's really what I want to see. 1063 00:50:56.960 --> 00:50:59.039 Are they are they greating out well? They both are. 1064 00:50:59.880 --> 00:51:03.440 I think that one of those will take away that 1065 00:51:03.599 --> 00:51:06.639 scrambling ability for the Giants, and I just don't see 1066 00:51:06.679 --> 00:51:08.599 how they score. And now I know the Giants defens 1067 00:51:08.639 --> 00:51:11.440 is not good, but it is Jackson Dark creating plays 1068 00:51:11.440 --> 00:51:12.960 with his legs that's leading to the point. So if 1069 00:51:12.960 --> 00:51:16.000 they can minimize that with it with good linebacker spies, 1070 00:51:17.239 --> 00:51:19.239 I just it's all. It's all Bears for me. 1071 00:51:20.760 --> 00:51:23.960 So power Rings got the Bears. I've got it graded 1072 00:51:24.079 --> 00:51:25.679 over the forty six and a half. But the weather, 1073 00:51:25.719 --> 00:51:29.239 obviously you got to keep an eye on that. But 1074 00:51:29.280 --> 00:51:31.199 I've got Chicago win this game twenty six to twenty three, 1075 00:51:31.239 --> 00:51:34.599 which would be in the cover for the Giants. The 1076 00:51:34.599 --> 00:51:37.280 reason because this won't be the best matchup for Sugar Britches. 1077 00:51:37.320 --> 00:51:39.039 He greis up flat and it's actually really good matchup 1078 00:51:39.079 --> 00:51:41.719 for Dark. Chicago's so bad against the past they are 1079 00:51:41.920 --> 00:51:45.880 twenty ninth and success rate against the past they're awful, awful, awful. 1080 00:51:46.119 --> 00:51:48.000 But on the flip side of that, you've got the 1081 00:51:48.000 --> 00:51:50.800 dead ass last defense against Russian sucess rate the Giants. 1082 00:51:51.599 --> 00:51:53.880 They gained the Bears game three points to the VPG 1083 00:51:53.920 --> 00:51:55.800 on the running game. In this game, they're gonna be 1084 00:51:55.800 --> 00:51:58.880 able to run and run and run and run some 1085 00:51:58.920 --> 00:52:02.000 more and continue to run. And we've seen this's Ben 1086 00:52:02.079 --> 00:52:04.480 Johnson offense, whether be in Detroit or be in Chicago. 1087 00:52:04.800 --> 00:52:06.519 If you get a matchup like this for the running 1088 00:52:06.519 --> 00:52:09.360 games working, you know you're not gonna be able to 1089 00:52:09.360 --> 00:52:11.119 stop them from scoring. So it is gonna be off. 1090 00:52:11.320 --> 00:52:14.079 It's gonna be up to Dart to cover this spread. 1091 00:52:14.079 --> 00:52:16.639 He's not being able to run on this defense at all. 1092 00:52:16.679 --> 00:52:19.800 But the Giants. The Giants running game also grades up 1093 00:52:19.840 --> 00:52:22.440 plus one two because the Bears stink against the fucking 1094 00:52:22.480 --> 00:52:24.360 run as well. Now they're not as bad as the Giants, 1095 00:52:24.519 --> 00:52:26.599 they're not good, and they're worse against the Giants in 1096 00:52:26.639 --> 00:52:30.280 the past. So dark does have an avenue for successor 1097 00:52:30.280 --> 00:52:31.840 they do have an avenue to put up some points. 1098 00:52:31.840 --> 00:52:35.119 That's why it's going over grading over again. Weather permitting, 1099 00:52:35.280 --> 00:52:37.480 you gotta keep an eye on that. But if the 1100 00:52:37.480 --> 00:52:40.320 weather does get bad, Chicago's going to just be able 1101 00:52:40.320 --> 00:52:42.079 to run and run and run until they hit their 1102 00:52:42.079 --> 00:52:44.639 head on the goalpost multiple fucking times. Because there is 1103 00:52:44.679 --> 00:52:47.800 nothing There is nothing as bad as the Giants defense. 1104 00:52:47.880 --> 00:52:50.400 Is not just that it's a matchup two, it's a 1105 00:52:50.519 --> 00:52:53.199 terrible matchup scheme wise, there is literally nothing the Giants 1106 00:52:53.239 --> 00:52:55.679 are gonna be able to do to stop Chicago for 1107 00:52:55.760 --> 00:52:57.000 running the ball. I don't even know who their best 1108 00:52:57.039 --> 00:52:59.079 running back is or who gets the majority of the carries. 1109 00:52:59.360 --> 00:53:01.239 I don't do the fucking player props, but I know 1110 00:53:01.280 --> 00:53:04.320 ckv all over it. All I'm saying is you got 1111 00:53:04.320 --> 00:53:07.679 some daily ship out there, grab a Chicago running back, 1112 00:53:07.719 --> 00:53:09.840 do your research. Whoever gets the most shit or whatever, 1113 00:53:10.360 --> 00:53:12.559 they're gonna they're gonna. They're all gonna have success. They're 1114 00:53:12.599 --> 00:53:13.480 all gonna have success. 1115 00:53:13.599 --> 00:53:16.360 Well, the Monong guy kid is kind of and he 1116 00:53:16.519 --> 00:53:21.400 fits that hammer that that I was talking about, and 1117 00:53:21.440 --> 00:53:22.480 he's he's kind of taken over. 1118 00:53:22.559 --> 00:53:24.679 Him's two hundred yards from scrimmage, I think last week. 1119 00:53:24.719 --> 00:53:25.920 But c J. 1120 00:53:26.079 --> 00:53:28.480 Gardner Johnson the Bears. You're talking about the Bears being 1121 00:53:28.480 --> 00:53:30.880 bad on on in the secondary. They're so bad at 1122 00:53:31.159 --> 00:53:34.159 c J. Gardner Johnson. I think he's his eighteenth team 1123 00:53:34.280 --> 00:53:37.760 in three years that he's been on. So that's how 1124 00:53:37.800 --> 00:53:39.159 bad they are in the secondary. 1125 00:53:39.159 --> 00:53:40.199 They got to bring in c. J. 1126 00:53:40.360 --> 00:53:43.800 Gardner Johnson, now, which when he's good, he's good. When 1127 00:53:43.800 --> 00:53:46.000 he's bad, he's so fucking bad. 1128 00:53:46.760 --> 00:53:48.199 Well, they're bad at the unit period. 1129 00:53:48.280 --> 00:53:51.159 I know it's worth it's worth a shot there. 1130 00:53:50.960 --> 00:53:53.480 There is an avenue for New York to cover this 1131 00:53:53.519 --> 00:53:55.880 game we talked about last week. You know, they're still 1132 00:53:55.920 --> 00:53:58.800 pesky man, they're still passing. You know, the forty nine 1133 00:53:58.880 --> 00:54:00.440 ers game got away from him. That was just a 1134 00:54:00.440 --> 00:54:03.480 bad spot for them. It was a good spuffer, san fran. 1135 00:54:03.880 --> 00:54:05.880 I don't feel great about the Land of put Like 1136 00:54:05.880 --> 00:54:08.280 it's just because because yeah, the Giants are just they 1137 00:54:08.320 --> 00:54:09.679 just don't seem to ever go away. 1138 00:54:09.719 --> 00:54:11.920 But I can't. I can't. 1139 00:54:12.199 --> 00:54:16.400 And it was a decent matchup for the mcookie monster 1140 00:54:16.519 --> 00:54:19.039 last week versus John. It's not a good match up 1141 00:54:19.079 --> 00:54:20.960 for Caleb. So like it's gonna have to be this 1142 00:54:21.039 --> 00:54:22.639 running which they're gonna be able to run the ball fine, 1143 00:54:22.639 --> 00:54:26.639 but like if Caleb can't just at least contribute, then 1144 00:54:26.719 --> 00:54:28.800 it's gonna be tough for them to score again. Cover 1145 00:54:28.880 --> 00:54:30.440 this number because the Giants are gonna be able to 1146 00:54:30.480 --> 00:54:32.159 move the football against Steff, they are gonna be able 1147 00:54:32.159 --> 00:54:35.000 to score the ball. We've seen Jackson dark, he's got 1148 00:54:35.000 --> 00:54:37.480 some guns from to him. He makes plays. He is 1149 00:54:37.519 --> 00:54:38.840 gonna be able to make plays in this game. 1150 00:54:38.920 --> 00:54:39.880 So I. 1151 00:54:41.519 --> 00:54:44.119 Perform his numbers. 1152 00:54:43.159 --> 00:54:44.159 Ten to seventh final. 1153 00:54:44.719 --> 00:54:46.920 Do I get any credit for calling that like. 1154 00:54:46.880 --> 00:54:49.599 An hour and a half ago, I mean you should. 1155 00:54:50.320 --> 00:54:52.880 This is I'm not kidding this. 1156 00:54:53.079 --> 00:54:54.800 They go under though, did it go under? 1157 00:54:55.000 --> 00:54:57.480 This might be the worst football game I've everyone Raiders covered. 1158 00:54:58.719 --> 00:55:04.400 You think they almost covered? If if Denver? 1159 00:55:05.320 --> 00:55:11.159 Yeah, without scoring without scoring point, without scoring a point, 1160 00:55:11.159 --> 00:55:12.000 they almost covered. 1161 00:55:12.000 --> 00:55:15.480 Like this is what is Denver gonna do? We'll talking 1162 00:55:15.480 --> 00:55:16.239 about baby. 1163 00:55:16.519 --> 00:55:18.719 Those Broncos are eight and to they're coming. 1164 00:55:19.280 --> 00:55:20.079 This is pathetic. 1165 00:55:20.599 --> 00:55:31.159 This is this is pathetic. Drops on bone next sorry ass. 1166 00:55:33.000 --> 00:55:40.960 See yeah, you're you're let's see looking for sorry drops. 1167 00:55:41.360 --> 00:55:46.199 Yeah, this guy shucked. He fucking shuts. 1168 00:55:49.079 --> 00:55:54.119 Oh god, here's uh Sean Payton after drafted, immediately regrets this. 1169 00:55:55.400 --> 00:55:59.360 Yeah, and and here's here's everybody when they talk about bonus. 1170 00:55:59.239 --> 00:56:01.920 Retard, he was a guitar. 1171 00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:05.519 He was a rettard. 1172 00:56:06.079 --> 00:56:08.159 All right, let's move on to you know a good 1173 00:56:08.199 --> 00:56:13.320 football team. They'll Seeattle Seahawks. They are hosting those Arizona 1174 00:56:13.679 --> 00:56:16.599 midgetless Cardinals. Thankfully for them. I wish the mission would 1175 00:56:16.639 --> 00:56:18.039 have been in there. We probably would won that game 1176 00:56:18.039 --> 00:56:23.239 of money. Not long horn almost since Jacoby Brissette came in. 1177 00:56:23.360 --> 00:56:25.239 I don't know, they're scoring twenty five points game. They 1178 00:56:25.280 --> 00:56:27.480 looked like a real football Who knew that if he 1179 00:56:27.559 --> 00:56:30.039 threw the ball to your best player, I don't know, 1180 00:56:30.199 --> 00:56:31.199 good things could happen. 1181 00:56:31.239 --> 00:56:37.119 He might half he can't fucking see them. And I'm 1182 00:56:37.159 --> 00:56:39.000 not I'm not even doing that to be like it's 1183 00:56:39.039 --> 00:56:40.800 it's it's a real thing. 1184 00:56:40.880 --> 00:56:42.639 Now it's over real thing. 1185 00:56:42.920 --> 00:56:46.360 I mean Marvin Harrison literally had his best half of 1186 00:56:46.440 --> 00:56:49.400 his entire career again against the Cowboys secondary. 1187 00:56:50.159 --> 00:56:50.320 Ok. 1188 00:56:51.159 --> 00:56:54.559 Yeah, he's played bad teams with Kyler and hasn't done 1189 00:56:54.599 --> 00:56:58.280 that like this this it's he sucks the color things done. 1190 00:56:58.400 --> 00:57:01.159 He got sent to the eye on are I are 1191 00:57:01.519 --> 00:57:02.039 it's a fake? 1192 00:57:02.119 --> 00:57:03.239 I are? Uh. 1193 00:57:03.320 --> 00:57:05.719 He was supposed to have a chance to play last 1194 00:57:05.719 --> 00:57:07.679 week against the Cowboys, and then all of a sudden 1195 00:57:07.679 --> 00:57:10.760 they make the announcement Brissett's gonna be our starting quarterback. 1196 00:57:11.079 --> 00:57:13.480 Oh yeah, we gotta put color on on the hour. 1197 00:57:13.719 --> 00:57:17.719 Bullshit, he's he's His career with the Cardinals is done. 1198 00:57:17.840 --> 00:57:20.119 I would never pick him up anywhere. Like the book 1199 00:57:20.159 --> 00:57:23.039 is out on him. You cannot have a quarterback that 1200 00:57:23.239 --> 00:57:24.440 short and that little. 1201 00:57:24.599 --> 00:57:25.920 It just he's done. 1202 00:57:26.000 --> 00:57:30.119 Amazing with what he's had, Like he's been a starter 1203 00:57:30.199 --> 00:57:32.480 for like what six years now, that's amazing. 1204 00:57:32.920 --> 00:57:36.199 Yeah, it's not just that though the book on him 1205 00:57:36.280 --> 00:57:39.960 always was he was not a studier. Yes he wasn't. 1206 00:57:40.000 --> 00:57:43.159 He wasn't a you know, Brady and Manny and all 1207 00:57:43.159 --> 00:57:45.360 the all the greats and Breeze tiny average. 1208 00:57:45.400 --> 00:57:48.519 So you would think if you're five to eight, maybe 1209 00:57:48.559 --> 00:57:50.800 you do a little studying to to like you know, 1210 00:57:50.960 --> 00:57:52.760 you know, maybe you try to like overcome. 1211 00:57:52.760 --> 00:57:55.079 But now he's like, nah, I'm gonna play some call 1212 00:57:55.119 --> 00:57:57.159 of duty. I'm gonna roll out there five to eight. 1213 00:57:57.559 --> 00:57:59.280 I can't see anybody over the line, So I'm gonna 1214 00:57:59.280 --> 00:58:02.159 scram around and do little circus midget circle and maybe 1215 00:58:02.159 --> 00:58:05.719 I'll maybe I'll find somebody. Maybe I don't, Maybe I don't, 1216 00:58:05.760 --> 00:58:07.440 but like it's just it's done. 1217 00:58:08.000 --> 00:58:09.199 I don't know. I didn't mean to cut you off. 1218 00:58:09.199 --> 00:58:10.480 I don't know if you have any more set up 1219 00:58:10.480 --> 00:58:12.880 on this, but yeah, he sucks so bad. 1220 00:58:13.320 --> 00:58:15.760 No, just like you just hear those guys talk about being, 1221 00:58:15.880 --> 00:58:19.039 you know, a student of your craft, and those are 1222 00:58:19.039 --> 00:58:20.880 the best that ever did it, that had all the 1223 00:58:20.880 --> 00:58:24.679 physical building. Not Drew Brees perhaps, but even the guys 1224 00:58:24.679 --> 00:58:26.239 that have all the physical building in the world, six 1225 00:58:26.280 --> 00:58:29.840 foot five, fucking big arms, tough, strong, I mean, like 1226 00:58:30.159 --> 00:58:32.920 those guys were just they talk about being a student 1227 00:58:33.039 --> 00:58:35.360 of the craft and being so dedicated to and it 1228 00:58:35.440 --> 00:58:38.440 takes that to be great. Like you said, he's five eight, 1229 00:58:38.840 --> 00:58:41.800 and yeah, his athleticism and all his midget shuffling saved 1230 00:58:41.880 --> 00:58:43.079 him for a long time, won him a lot of 1231 00:58:43.079 --> 00:58:45.639 football games that made a lot of highlights, you know, 1232 00:58:45.679 --> 00:58:47.239 and quite frank, over the years, made us a lot 1233 00:58:47.280 --> 00:58:48.719 of money. I mean it used to be coler as 1234 00:58:48.719 --> 00:58:51.280 adult collers, a dog, collars a dog. That was a spot. 1235 00:58:51.440 --> 00:58:54.039 We made a lot of money on that. And he 1236 00:58:54.480 --> 00:58:56.639 at some point, though, did you just lose a little 1237 00:58:56.639 --> 00:58:59.000 bit of that athleticism? And all it takes in this 1238 00:58:59.119 --> 00:59:02.079 league is half a step. It's all it taste. You 1239 00:59:02.119 --> 00:59:04.559 lose half a step, which is another reason Lamar does 1240 00:59:04.599 --> 00:59:07.159 is still so amazing because this many years in he's 1241 00:59:07.199 --> 00:59:10.679 still just as quick, just as explosive as he ever 1242 00:59:10.760 --> 00:59:14.039 has been, Like he hasn't lost anything, which is fucking incredible. 1243 00:59:14.079 --> 00:59:15.920 First of all, I don't even know how that's possible. 1244 00:59:15.960 --> 00:59:20.320 He's a unicorn, But yeah, collar when you're tiny you 1245 00:59:20.400 --> 00:59:23.239 lose half a step, you already fucking can't see your toast. 1246 00:59:23.400 --> 00:59:27.840 So all right, on this one, Seattle is laying six 1247 00:59:27.880 --> 00:59:30.239 and a half. I believe across the board opened at 1248 00:59:30.280 --> 00:59:32.480 six went six and a half. Now I say that 1249 00:59:32.519 --> 00:59:36.000 it is climbing. It is climbing. Juice coming in on 1250 00:59:36.119 --> 00:59:39.360 six and a half up to seven at Heritage minus 1251 00:59:39.360 --> 00:59:41.199 won twenty six and a half at DK it's already 1252 00:59:41.159 --> 00:59:44.960 at seven at circa flat. So we're we're looking at 1253 00:59:44.960 --> 00:59:47.280 going to seven here, boys and girls. So we'll call 1254 00:59:47.320 --> 00:59:51.599 it six point seven right now. But what you got 1255 00:59:51.599 --> 00:59:52.280 on this one one more? 1256 00:59:52.760 --> 00:59:54.519 Well, he can just keep on climbing because this is 1257 00:59:54.559 --> 01:00:19.320 the first of two Danger's game with a week, all right, 1258 01:00:19.360 --> 01:00:22.559 so we can we can call both these I usually 1259 01:00:22.599 --> 01:00:23.519 go Maverick goose. 1260 01:00:23.519 --> 01:00:26.920 We're gonna do them both goose because both of. 1261 01:00:26.760 --> 01:00:31.079 My uh danger zones deal with backup quarterbacks, so we're 1262 01:00:31.119 --> 01:00:33.360 going with them. We're gonna just two backup two gooses, 1263 01:00:33.599 --> 01:00:36.320 uh on this one. And yeah, with Brissette, we talked 1264 01:00:36.360 --> 01:00:38.480 about it. They look like a real team. They actually 1265 01:00:38.519 --> 01:00:39.920 look like a real. 1266 01:00:40.039 --> 01:00:44.760 Team, and they. 1267 01:00:43.199 --> 01:00:46.000 Score and and you know, football is football is such 1268 01:00:46.000 --> 01:00:49.199 a you know, everything has to work together offense defense. 1269 01:00:49.280 --> 01:00:53.639 Most teams when everything is flowing, everything's going together, this 1270 01:00:53.840 --> 01:00:56.320 might I think Arizona's gonna be the most buy on 1271 01:00:56.440 --> 01:00:57.760 team for me the rest of the year. 1272 01:00:57.840 --> 01:00:59.679 And for a few a couple of reasons. Number one, 1273 01:00:59.840 --> 01:01:00.480 the Bsette thing. 1274 01:01:00.519 --> 01:01:02.480 They look at a real team running the ball, even 1275 01:01:02.519 --> 01:01:05.719 with their third and fourth running backs Bam Knight and 1276 01:01:05.840 --> 01:01:08.800 De Mercado, they're just fucking chewing up people in the 1277 01:01:08.880 --> 01:01:11.800 running game. And he talked about, you know, Marvin Harrison 1278 01:01:11.880 --> 01:01:15.079 actually being what he was always as a wide receiver, 1279 01:01:15.239 --> 01:01:17.239 and then Trey mc bride's being a beast no matter what. 1280 01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:19.519 So this is a real offense now, uh. And then 1281 01:01:19.559 --> 01:01:22.920 on the defensive side, Walter Nolan, Walter Nolan, Walton Nolan. 1282 01:01:23.280 --> 01:01:24.960 Nine percent of you people don't know who that is. 1283 01:01:25.000 --> 01:01:28.079 He played his first game last week, the game as 1284 01:01:28.079 --> 01:01:30.199 a rookie. This dude is just. 1285 01:01:30.199 --> 01:01:36.000 Think of Warren Sapp type defensive just disruptor defensive tackle. 1286 01:01:36.079 --> 01:01:39.960 Who get I'm probably gonna get this wrong. I'm not 1287 01:01:39.960 --> 01:01:40.920 gonna ole. 1288 01:01:40.880 --> 01:01:44.679 Miss yeah ole, miss very good, very good. 1289 01:01:45.239 --> 01:01:48.880 And in the preseason when I was flirting with picking 1290 01:01:48.920 --> 01:01:51.760 Arizona to win this division, before I came to my 1291 01:01:51.800 --> 01:01:54.199 senses and remember that they have a midget quarterback, and 1292 01:01:54.199 --> 01:01:57.639 why would I ever do that? It was it was 1293 01:01:57.719 --> 01:02:00.719 because of this defense, and and now we're starting to 1294 01:02:00.719 --> 01:02:03.159 see this this defense coming to form. He's kind of 1295 01:02:03.159 --> 01:02:05.599 like the last piece along with getting healthy on the 1296 01:02:05.639 --> 01:02:07.360 back end. They had some injuries they were dealing with 1297 01:02:07.440 --> 01:02:09.360 in the secondary in the eard of the year. That 1298 01:02:09.360 --> 01:02:12.639 that that these players have come back. I think Arizona 1299 01:02:12.719 --> 01:02:15.719 is one of my favorite second half of this season. 1300 01:02:16.199 --> 01:02:19.199 Play on teams and I like them. 1301 01:02:19.400 --> 01:02:22.440 I'm going two units on the here's the deal though, 1302 01:02:22.519 --> 01:02:25.400 it's it's steam into seven, correct, But you're not gonna 1303 01:02:25.400 --> 01:02:28.079 give me seven? Are you? 1304 01:02:28.079 --> 01:02:29.760 You know what I'm feelings? 1305 01:02:30.239 --> 01:02:32.559 All right? Then give me two units on the seven. 1306 01:02:32.760 --> 01:02:37.880 Give me give me who you know what? Seattle loses 1307 01:02:37.920 --> 01:02:40.320 games at home, This is not their spot. Give me 1308 01:02:40.440 --> 01:02:43.320 give me one unit on the on the money. 1309 01:02:43.039 --> 01:02:46.519 Line too, because like we've seen Seattle, if they're gonna 1310 01:02:46.559 --> 01:02:49.360 lay a dud, it's been at home. They've been dominant 1311 01:02:49.400 --> 01:02:51.559 on the road, they lay duds at home. Give me 1312 01:02:51.599 --> 01:02:54.360 a unit on the money line for Cardinals. 1313 01:02:53.920 --> 01:03:01.960 Two right, uh no? To sixty three? 1314 01:03:02.440 --> 01:03:05.159 Two sixty three and I will look up their other 1315 01:03:05.280 --> 01:03:07.000 loss because I can't'm drumning black. I know they lost 1316 01:03:07.039 --> 01:03:09.880 in Tampa and oh Sam Fran at home, so mother 1317 01:03:09.920 --> 01:03:10.840 losses have been at home. 1318 01:03:11.159 --> 01:03:13.519 That was the first was the first first game. It 1319 01:03:13.559 --> 01:03:15.800 was the first game they always like, I think that's 1320 01:03:15.800 --> 01:03:17.920 two years ago. They've lost to San Fran. Oh game 1321 01:03:18.079 --> 01:03:20.599 like opening game at home two years ago. 1322 01:03:21.400 --> 01:03:23.920 So you uh take it away and tell me how 1323 01:03:23.960 --> 01:03:26.599 you kind of gig around poo poo all on my 1324 01:03:26.719 --> 01:03:27.880 danger Zone pick of the week. 1325 01:03:28.800 --> 01:03:31.159 No, definitely not get a poopo. Now the power Regan's 1326 01:03:31.199 --> 01:03:35.119 dos does does have Seattle, but again a lot of 1327 01:03:35.119 --> 01:03:38.760 status with Kyler in there too. Now forty four and 1328 01:03:38.760 --> 01:03:40.800 a half, what we're sitting at the total I've got 1329 01:03:40.800 --> 01:03:43.320 it actually Seattle twenty two, twenty two, so tyd So 1330 01:03:43.719 --> 01:03:47.320 I think Longhorns plus seven definitely has legs. I like 1331 01:03:47.360 --> 01:03:50.519 that bet a lot. Actually a couple of reasons why 1332 01:03:51.000 --> 01:03:53.800 Number one Sammy d I don't know. He might be 1333 01:03:53.840 --> 01:03:56.920 the MVP, might be the best quarterback going right now 1334 01:03:56.960 --> 01:03:59.559 in football, but this is not a good matchup for him, 1335 01:03:59.679 --> 01:04:03.239 and it's all matchup base. If you talked about Arizona's defense, 1336 01:04:03.559 --> 01:04:06.760 it is getting better. However, you know, it's still not 1337 01:04:06.800 --> 01:04:09.039 grading out great, especially drop back success. For there's still 1338 01:04:09.079 --> 01:04:11.840 twenty fourth in the league. Now they started towards the bottom, 1339 01:04:11.880 --> 01:04:14.840 so they are getting better. But this particularly matchup base 1340 01:04:14.880 --> 01:04:17.440 against what sam Ronald does well and what Arizona's defense 1341 01:04:17.480 --> 01:04:20.599 does well and does the most, not a good matchup 1342 01:04:20.639 --> 01:04:22.400 for him. So he loses the point and a half 1343 01:04:22.440 --> 01:04:26.920 of the BBG. Jacoby sent grades out his flat and 1344 01:04:26.960 --> 01:04:29.559 the other part that I think that it gives credence 1345 01:04:29.599 --> 01:04:32.960 to the Arizona pick is that you know, Seattle Gray's 1346 01:04:32.960 --> 01:04:35.400 out flat running the ball against this defense. Now Arizona 1347 01:04:35.519 --> 01:04:38.400 doesn't grade out particularly whether they lose half a point, 1348 01:04:38.440 --> 01:04:40.559 which is not much to the BBG. In the running game, 1349 01:04:41.119 --> 01:04:42.639 I think they'll be able to run it well enough 1350 01:04:42.960 --> 01:04:46.320 if Jakob just goes out there and plays like here's how, 1351 01:04:47.400 --> 01:04:49.920 here's how Arizona covers. They just play their game. If 1352 01:04:49.920 --> 01:04:52.880 they play the normal football game. Again, long run is 1353 01:04:52.880 --> 01:04:55.559 a bad matchup for Sammy d. So if they play 1354 01:04:55.559 --> 01:04:58.760 the normal football game, I think Arizona absolutely covers this game. 1355 01:04:59.199 --> 01:05:01.280 I've got a great out two. I need to hear 1356 01:05:01.280 --> 01:05:02.880 that part. So actually graded out of the tie, which 1357 01:05:02.920 --> 01:05:04.320 is a no call in the total forty four and 1358 01:05:04.320 --> 01:05:07.559 a half because Seattle not only the same to D 1359 01:05:07.639 --> 01:05:09.639 grade out bad, Seattle doesn't grade out well to run 1360 01:05:09.639 --> 01:05:11.679 the ball here too. So if they can't run the 1361 01:05:11.719 --> 01:05:13.760 ball and it's a bad matchup for Sammy D, they'll 1362 01:05:13.800 --> 01:05:15.960 still score their points because they're I mean, Jackson Smith 1363 01:05:16.000 --> 01:05:19.519 and Jigbob. I don't know this kid. He's unstoppable, like 1364 01:05:19.599 --> 01:05:20.440 literally unstoppable. 1365 01:05:20.480 --> 01:05:23.960 Now you can't ninety two point seven PFF grade number. 1366 01:05:23.800 --> 01:05:25.800 Two that the other the day has, like the he's 1367 01:05:25.840 --> 01:05:30.599 the number one yards per scrimming yards per route run receiver. 1368 01:05:30.719 --> 01:05:33.360 Like he's trending like towards all like an all time 1369 01:05:33.480 --> 01:05:35.719 yards per route run season. It is fucking insane what 1370 01:05:35.800 --> 01:05:38.000 he's doing. Every time he runs a route, it's like 1371 01:05:38.000 --> 01:05:40.159 over three yards, which is unheard of in the NFL. 1372 01:05:40.880 --> 01:05:44.000 That's called that's college shit. That's like college Marvin Harrison shit. 1373 01:05:44.079 --> 01:05:47.199 Like that's video game bullshit. Every time you run a route, 1374 01:05:47.199 --> 01:05:49.000 you gain three not I don't care if you throw 1375 01:05:49.000 --> 01:05:50.599 it to me, not every time I run a route. 1376 01:05:51.199 --> 01:05:55.519 That's what it can't like, So anything three yards is insane. 1377 01:05:55.039 --> 01:05:58.039 In now they now Seattle did make a nice little 1378 01:05:58.440 --> 01:06:01.800 trade at the deadline. That's gonna do well from them 1379 01:06:01.880 --> 01:06:04.599 going forward. Shahed, Oh, I forget, we forgot to talk 1380 01:06:04.639 --> 01:06:07.920 about that. With the Saints, Rashid Shahed the wide receiver, 1381 01:06:08.079 --> 01:06:09.840 deep deep threat guy, they had one of. 1382 01:06:09.840 --> 01:06:11.559 Their one of their receivers. 1383 01:06:12.000 --> 01:06:14.480 That's a nice little pickup and another nice little dump 1384 01:06:14.519 --> 01:06:15.679 for for New Orleans. 1385 01:06:15.679 --> 01:06:18.960 So but as we're saying, with wide receiver editions mid season, 1386 01:06:19.079 --> 01:06:21.320 it generally takes a game or two to kind of 1387 01:06:21.320 --> 01:06:23.599 work into the scheme. Well, unless you're like, unless you're 1388 01:06:23.639 --> 01:06:25.119 like a DK or something like that, just go out 1389 01:06:25.119 --> 01:06:27.159 and physically dominate, Like, hey, just throw me the balls. 1390 01:06:27.199 --> 01:06:28.159 I'm bigger than this game. 1391 01:06:28.239 --> 01:06:29.519 Maybe so, maybe so. 1392 01:06:29.840 --> 01:06:33.840 But with with a guy like Shahed, you're one you 1393 01:06:33.880 --> 01:06:35.840 pick up him not just because of the production he's 1394 01:06:35.840 --> 01:06:37.639 gonna do when he gets the ball, but he also 1395 01:06:37.800 --> 01:06:40.039 clears space for for things that you want to do 1396 01:06:40.519 --> 01:06:43.360 uh an underneath because he's he's got such the deep threat. 1397 01:06:43.480 --> 01:06:45.840 So I hope it doesn't happen in this game. But 1398 01:06:46.000 --> 01:06:48.679 he's he is a burner, he's. 1399 01:06:48.320 --> 01:06:50.800 A he's an elite, take the top off the defense 1400 01:06:50.840 --> 01:06:53.199 type guy that's gonna should open things up in the 1401 01:06:53.199 --> 01:06:55.320 middle of the field for Sam Darnold, who is number 1402 01:06:55.360 --> 01:06:58.280 one PFF quarterback in the league ninety three point five. 1403 01:06:58.840 --> 01:06:59.039 Yeah. 1404 01:06:59.039 --> 01:07:01.119 I mentioned that. I mentioned stars like he might be 1405 01:07:01.119 --> 01:07:02.639 the best coy rrect layer, he might be the MVP, 1406 01:07:02.800 --> 01:07:05.280 but it's not a good matchup for him, So I 1407 01:07:05.400 --> 01:07:05.559 like it. 1408 01:07:06.880 --> 01:07:08.079 I hope you're right. 1409 01:07:08.800 --> 01:07:11.480 I like that we've been pretty good on collin these 1410 01:07:11.519 --> 01:07:14.000 matchups throughout the year. As far as who's gonna have 1411 01:07:14.360 --> 01:07:17.199 good games and bad games? Now, then't always work out 1412 01:07:17.199 --> 01:07:19.159 for us and spread because football go how football go. 1413 01:07:19.800 --> 01:07:23.239 But I don't like the fact that my power rings 1414 01:07:23.239 --> 01:07:25.199 are on Seattle. But again that's with a lot of 1415 01:07:25.360 --> 01:07:28.199 Kyler data mixed in there, so you gotta take that 1416 01:07:28.239 --> 01:07:30.320 from what it's worth. I like the way Arizona's playing 1417 01:07:30.400 --> 01:07:32.440 right now. I'm gonna let this keep and I don't 1418 01:07:32.480 --> 01:07:34.039 care that all the money's coming in against this. I'm 1419 01:07:34.039 --> 01:07:36.719 gonna let this keep. Going to these sevens get again. 1420 01:07:36.760 --> 01:07:38.599 It's seven flat at circle right now, it's seven at 1421 01:07:38.599 --> 01:07:41.760 playing gym seven it heritage and it's juice six and 1422 01:07:41.800 --> 01:07:43.760 a half, so it's going to seven. So if you 1423 01:07:43.840 --> 01:07:45.760 like Arizona like we do, and you don't have seven 1424 01:07:45.840 --> 01:07:48.639 cent in front of you just wait, it's coming, it's 1425 01:07:48.679 --> 01:07:52.360 coming your way. So again, sometimes you don't like money 1426 01:07:52.480 --> 01:07:55.159 coming against you and you don't really understand it. I 1427 01:07:55.239 --> 01:07:57.039 kind of understand it in this one a little bit 1428 01:07:57.519 --> 01:08:00.559 because it's it is Jacouber said, can go out there 1429 01:08:00.559 --> 01:08:03.119 and play that game against a good defense in Seattle, 1430 01:08:03.119 --> 01:08:05.079 and he just played against the worst defense of all 1431 01:08:05.159 --> 01:08:07.400 time in fucking Dallas. 1432 01:08:07.320 --> 01:08:09.559 And not been good at home though, like like for 1433 01:08:09.559 --> 01:08:12.280 whatever reason they're they're at home. It's not a it's 1434 01:08:12.679 --> 01:08:15.199 it's a maybe that's just a short sample and it's 1435 01:08:15.199 --> 01:08:18.279 fluky and that'll even out. But at home they've just 1436 01:08:18.359 --> 01:08:22.279 not been a dominant defense. Now as far as the 1437 01:08:22.279 --> 01:08:24.800 line moves, maybe one of the reasons. And and I 1438 01:08:24.920 --> 01:08:30.039 completely ignored this trend just because the persett This the 1439 01:08:30.039 --> 01:08:33.279 Perssette has them looking like a completely different team. And 1440 01:08:33.359 --> 01:08:36.319 this trend is is almost all well almost certainly all 1441 01:08:36.800 --> 01:08:39.800 Kyler Murray. But in this division since twenty twenty two, 1442 01:08:39.800 --> 01:08:45.279 Seattle is seven to one ats versus Arizona. So Seattle's 1443 01:08:45.319 --> 01:08:49.039 dominated this this matchup against Kyler though. See, so this 1444 01:08:49.079 --> 01:08:51.239 is one of those things like that's you don't want 1445 01:08:51.239 --> 01:08:55.039 to go against that, but that's what Kyler. You know, 1446 01:08:55.319 --> 01:08:57.920 sometimes those things don't matter, that matter what quarterback. They 1447 01:08:57.960 --> 01:08:59.600 just teams dominate other teams. 1448 01:09:00.399 --> 01:09:03.239 It's so freaky to in this division, like the NFC West, 1449 01:09:03.279 --> 01:09:05.760 it's like a it's almost like a hierarchy of who 1450 01:09:05.800 --> 01:09:06.199 eat too. 1451 01:09:06.640 --> 01:09:09.119 We'll get back. We'll get to that later on for sure. 1452 01:09:10.239 --> 01:09:12.439 So it is weird, but it is a fucking thing 1453 01:09:12.479 --> 01:09:14.600 for whatever reason, this NFC West, it's like a Hui 1454 01:09:14.680 --> 01:09:18.439 too in this division. You're right, Seattle does eat up Arizona. 1455 01:09:18.479 --> 01:09:21.399 I remember last year. I think we were on opposite sides. 1456 01:09:21.439 --> 01:09:24.760 I had Seattle at home when Gino was there. It 1457 01:09:24.800 --> 01:09:26.880 was like a three point spread them versus Coller and 1458 01:09:26.920 --> 01:09:29.760 that was the game that Seattle won, like twenty three 1459 01:09:29.800 --> 01:09:32.279 to six or whatever. It was like they Arizon. I've 1460 01:09:32.279 --> 01:09:33.319 never even scored a touchdown. 1461 01:09:33.399 --> 01:09:36.720 I guess, oh, you mean you mean Kyler cost me money. 1462 01:09:36.760 --> 01:09:37.600 I can't believe it. 1463 01:09:37.800 --> 01:09:40.600 I can't believe it either. Gino won me money, which 1464 01:09:41.319 --> 01:09:42.920 uh he did. He did that for me last week, 1465 01:09:43.000 --> 01:09:43.920 and if I would have bet on it or not, 1466 01:09:43.920 --> 01:09:45.359 he would have won me money again, So I can't 1467 01:09:45.359 --> 01:09:52.079 talk about Geno right now. Washington dance skins as they 1468 01:09:52.119 --> 01:09:53.600 are for the rest of the year. 1469 01:09:53.880 --> 01:09:55.399 The dead Skins. 1470 01:09:55.680 --> 01:09:59.479 Uh, yeah, they're dead and they are They're a corpse walking. 1471 01:10:00.399 --> 01:10:04.439 Let's see this game, you know what, it's got back 1472 01:10:04.479 --> 01:10:07.199 down to its openers. So we're we get off. 1473 01:10:08.159 --> 01:10:10.159 You want to explain that one to me? I can't. 1474 01:10:10.279 --> 01:10:13.439 I got no explanation here, boss. It's actually seven and 1475 01:10:13.439 --> 01:10:16.560 a half at Driftings. I know money is still coming 1476 01:10:16.600 --> 01:10:18.720 in on the Skins, still coming in a lot of 1477 01:10:18.760 --> 01:10:21.840 Detroit hat in this market. Ro what well, they hate you, 1478 01:10:22.199 --> 01:10:23.520 they hate these lines. 1479 01:10:24.359 --> 01:10:27.720 I can't, I have no I'm staying off this game 1480 01:10:27.800 --> 01:10:29.960 so much. I won't even put Detroit in at a 1481 01:10:30.000 --> 01:10:32.279 teaser right now because I don't know what the fuck's 1482 01:10:32.319 --> 01:10:33.880 going on with the line. 1483 01:10:34.800 --> 01:10:37.319 Who the fuck is betting on the Redskins right now? 1484 01:10:37.399 --> 01:10:40.800 And why I mean, and why. 1485 01:10:41.239 --> 01:10:48.079 Detroit coming off a loss, embarrassing loss, so everything. 1486 01:10:47.279 --> 01:10:49.600 Off a fucking game that not only they get embarrassed, 1487 01:10:49.800 --> 01:10:54.680 their coach literally got their franchise quarterback destroyed. 1488 01:10:54.960 --> 01:10:59.600 His season probably over, but that but the embarrassing loss 1489 01:10:59.600 --> 01:11:01.520 part be a reason at least for the way I 1490 01:11:01.640 --> 01:11:03.840 handicapped him to look towards them. 1491 01:11:03.920 --> 01:11:06.479 So but you also have, like you do the in 1492 01:11:06.800 --> 01:11:09.359 blocker room thing too, Like, you gotta know those players 1493 01:11:09.359 --> 01:11:11.800 are pissed. Dan Campbell, you got it though, the fucking 1494 01:11:11.840 --> 01:11:15.119 Maden everybody on TV's been yelling at for a fucking week, 1495 01:11:15.159 --> 01:11:17.159 calling an idiot. He had to get at the podium 1496 01:11:17.159 --> 01:11:19.680 and say that was my fault. He got away from me. 1497 01:11:19.880 --> 01:11:22.680 How does it get away from you? You're down by 1498 01:11:22.720 --> 01:11:25.199 almost thirty points or four minutes left. Why is he 1499 01:11:25.319 --> 01:11:27.920 out there? How could they get away from you? 1500 01:11:28.279 --> 01:11:32.520 His arm almost got away from his body, like detached completely. 1501 01:11:32.640 --> 01:11:36.920 So like, yeah, no, everything in my heart and soul 1502 01:11:36.960 --> 01:11:41.560 tells me to pound Detroit minus eight is telling you 1503 01:11:42.239 --> 01:11:43.800 pound Detroit on the teaser. 1504 01:11:44.279 --> 01:11:48.960 I can't explain it. So until if this ticks back up, 1505 01:11:49.800 --> 01:11:50.680 if it starts. 1506 01:11:50.359 --> 01:11:52.720 Going back the other way, eight and a half, eight, 1507 01:11:52.800 --> 01:11:55.319 eight and a half, Okay, that's gonna make me feel better. 1508 01:11:56.399 --> 01:12:02.479 I know Detroit at seven. Yeah, No, I needed to 1509 01:12:02.600 --> 01:12:04.880 go back up. The market needs to go back up 1510 01:12:04.920 --> 01:12:07.760 if it's gonna keep going down. No, but I'm not. 1511 01:12:08.039 --> 01:12:10.800 I'm not just like, oh yeah, everybody's betting on Washington, 1512 01:12:10.800 --> 01:12:12.640 So now I can tease. No way, I needed to 1513 01:12:12.640 --> 01:12:15.079 go back up for me to feel good. Teasing back 1514 01:12:15.119 --> 01:12:15.720 in but like. 1515 01:12:15.680 --> 01:12:15.920 Just. 1516 01:12:19.560 --> 01:12:21.079 You gotta think t is gonna win this game. 1517 01:12:21.199 --> 01:12:25.479 I mean, okay, I. 1518 01:12:25.399 --> 01:12:28.039 Mean if you get it one as opposed to which 1519 01:12:28.319 --> 01:12:31.119 is a big deal now in this NFL. Like I 1520 01:12:31.159 --> 01:12:32.760 don't know that to me. 1521 01:12:33.319 --> 01:12:37.640 To me at least on teasers, I like catching the 1522 01:12:37.640 --> 01:12:42.079 the favorite on the way up, like like it opens 1523 01:12:42.119 --> 01:12:44.439 at seven seven and a half, you bang it in 1524 01:12:44.680 --> 01:12:47.159 right then, and then it closes at eight eight and 1525 01:12:47.199 --> 01:12:51.800 a half. Nine versus your oh now it's coming down. 1526 01:12:51.840 --> 01:12:55.439 Maybe I don't know, especially especially because this is not 1527 01:12:55.520 --> 01:12:56.399 a teaser spot. 1528 01:12:56.439 --> 01:13:00.520 You don't tease favorites road favorites down. So it's not wongs. 1529 01:13:01.000 --> 01:13:04.000 It's not a long spot. Not a long spot. 1530 01:13:04.359 --> 01:13:06.640 Yeah, that that's That's what I don't like is I 1531 01:13:06.640 --> 01:13:08.760 don't understand it, and we don't like betting on things 1532 01:13:08.800 --> 01:13:14.079 we don't understand. Now, through the numbers, the total this 1533 01:13:14.159 --> 01:13:15.840 was forty nine and a half. I've got it going over. 1534 01:13:15.880 --> 01:13:18.000 I've got Detroit winning this game twenty nine to twenty three. 1535 01:13:18.600 --> 01:13:21.800 So the Skins would definitely cover that for Bssett or 1536 01:13:22.039 --> 01:13:24.199 number set for Mariota, which I've got an update on 1537 01:13:24.279 --> 01:13:26.520 him to grade it. It's a flat matchup for him. 1538 01:13:27.600 --> 01:13:31.560 This is the spot for golf like golf should have. 1539 01:13:33.479 --> 01:13:35.640 I don't know, maybe not his best game, but one 1540 01:13:35.720 --> 01:13:38.039 of his best games of the season in this matchup, 1541 01:13:38.199 --> 01:13:41.199 this is absolutely a matchup that he destroys against this 1542 01:13:41.279 --> 01:13:44.039 defensive Skins played, he gains three points of the VPG. 1543 01:13:44.600 --> 01:13:47.319 The Skins running game is flat, the Lions running game 1544 01:13:47.319 --> 01:13:49.520 has been struggling. It actually gains a half a point here, 1545 01:13:49.760 --> 01:13:52.000 which leans even more credence to the fucking golf spot 1546 01:13:52.000 --> 01:13:53.399 because you know, when he can run the ball, get 1547 01:13:53.399 --> 01:13:57.800 the play action going, it's deadly. I mean, it's almost unstoppable. Now. 1548 01:13:57.920 --> 01:14:00.560 The reason why I don't love the oh is just 1549 01:14:00.560 --> 01:14:02.840 because this track is so sloppy in Washington. It's such 1550 01:14:02.840 --> 01:14:07.039 a slow track. It's hard to get games to go 1551 01:14:07.039 --> 01:14:12.439 over fifty points here, especially after October. Once we get 1552 01:14:12.479 --> 01:14:14.920 in November. On that East coast and that sloppy track 1553 01:14:14.960 --> 01:14:17.640 in Washington, it is fucking hard to score a lot 1554 01:14:17.640 --> 01:14:21.319 of points without just tons of turnovers, fumbles, bullshit or 1555 01:14:21.359 --> 01:14:24.239 whatever going your way. But just if it was a 1556 01:14:24.319 --> 01:14:26.800 regular game without any of that factored in, I've got 1557 01:14:26.800 --> 01:14:29.600 Detroit winning about six. That doesn't quite cover. But again, 1558 01:14:29.680 --> 01:14:32.520 golf should eat here, so again for the fantasy thing. 1559 01:14:33.279 --> 01:14:35.000 I like golf a lot to put up some really 1560 01:14:35.039 --> 01:14:37.600 good numbers here. I don't see any way this Resicans 1561 01:14:37.600 --> 01:14:40.960 defense stop them from scoring at even on the sloppy track, 1562 01:14:41.000 --> 01:14:44.199 at a minimum twenty five to twenty seven points. I 1563 01:14:44.199 --> 01:14:47.279 don't think that Mariota can put that up against this defense. 1564 01:14:48.159 --> 01:14:51.520 So yeah, it's I can't lay eight points for Detroit, 1565 01:14:51.680 --> 01:14:54.840 and certainly now that's slamming down. This is a spot 1566 01:14:54.840 --> 01:14:56.399 I was looking to play a big favorite again. 1567 01:14:56.520 --> 01:15:01.600 This is a seventy point seven percent cover team coming 1568 01:15:01.640 --> 01:15:02.880 off an embarrassing loss. 1569 01:15:03.359 --> 01:15:07.920 Yeah, I guess a dechected team. Who knows. Now this 1570 01:15:08.039 --> 01:15:10.880 is like this is the dream crusher Sam season is. 1571 01:15:10.840 --> 01:15:14.439 A slam spot for Detroit and the line and all 1572 01:15:14.479 --> 01:15:17.640 the sharps are on the other side. Stay I'm just 1573 01:15:17.640 --> 01:15:19.880 gonna watch it, stay away and see what the fuck 1574 01:15:19.920 --> 01:15:21.039 I'm missing on this one. 1575 01:15:21.399 --> 01:15:24.279 Yeah, when Detroit was about twenty, I mean like, oh god. 1576 01:15:24.640 --> 01:15:26.119 Here's another Frankie. 1577 01:15:26.119 --> 01:15:30.279 Frankie Louvu maybe their best player on defense suspended because 1578 01:15:30.279 --> 01:15:34.239 he can't he can't stop tackling people illegally and he's 1579 01:15:34.359 --> 01:15:36.960 he's been fining so much for the hip drop tackle 1580 01:15:37.039 --> 01:15:40.600 or whatever that they're finally said, these fins ain't working. 1581 01:15:40.920 --> 01:15:43.479 You're suspended for a game. Like maybe their best player 1582 01:15:43.479 --> 01:15:44.760 on defense, he's gonna. 1583 01:15:44.520 --> 01:15:47.239 Be out linebacker. He's only good linebacker. 1584 01:15:47.239 --> 01:15:50.640 They have all the sharps. Can't can't get enough. They 1585 01:15:50.640 --> 01:15:53.399 can't get enough for the rest of us. So whatever, 1586 01:15:53.479 --> 01:15:54.319 Maybe I'm missing it. 1587 01:15:55.479 --> 01:15:59.159 Yeah, it's it's a confusing one, that's for sure. All right, 1588 01:15:59.239 --> 01:16:03.159 Let's move on to those San Francisco forty nine, those 1589 01:16:03.239 --> 01:16:07.840 those Los Angeles Rams. Now this one we're sitting at 1590 01:16:08.119 --> 01:16:11.680 four and a half across the board. Oh god, damn, 1591 01:16:11.680 --> 01:16:15.399 what is doing well? BAA took some heavy fucking uh 1592 01:16:16.800 --> 01:16:19.039 rams money. Apparently they're at five and a half. What 1593 01:16:19.119 --> 01:16:19.880 the fuck are we doing? 1594 01:16:19.920 --> 01:16:23.000 Whoa what? Oh my good? 1595 01:16:23.239 --> 01:16:25.439 Yeah, but four and a half across the board. We'll 1596 01:16:25.439 --> 01:16:28.000 grade four and a half pretty flat. So Rams was 1597 01:16:28.000 --> 01:16:28.800 four and a half? What he got? 1598 01:16:29.479 --> 01:16:33.880 Yeah, let's give you a little two seconds. There you go, there's. 1599 01:16:33.680 --> 01:16:35.760 Two seconds of the dangers. This is the other dangers 1600 01:16:35.800 --> 01:16:38.199 on the week, the other goose. Because we got another 1601 01:16:38.239 --> 01:16:42.920 backup quarterback, not no Mavericks on the day. I know, 1602 01:16:43.439 --> 01:16:46.239 I know, do I we? We know that Shanahan liked 1603 01:16:46.279 --> 01:16:48.560 him in the draft. We know that he wanted to 1604 01:16:48.600 --> 01:16:51.760 play him and I don't think you see party anymore 1605 01:16:51.760 --> 01:16:53.520 this year. I really don't, because, like if they keep 1606 01:16:53.520 --> 01:16:56.920 hanging these games and he keeps playing the way he plays, which. 1607 01:16:56.760 --> 01:16:58.880 Is not good man, kid just can't get it real. 1608 01:16:59.079 --> 01:17:01.079 Yeah, turf fils turf toe is a rough one. But 1609 01:17:01.159 --> 01:17:03.479 if he accuse, you know what, if they they're six 1610 01:17:03.520 --> 01:17:08.520 and three and and San Fran they kind of have 1611 01:17:09.079 --> 01:17:11.600 the number in this uh. In this matchup, we talked 1612 01:17:11.600 --> 01:17:14.359 about the NFC matchup where they eat each other and 1613 01:17:14.479 --> 01:17:17.439 there's certain matchups that that favor other teams. Well, this 1614 01:17:17.479 --> 01:17:22.399 is the one that the Niners eat rams UH specifically 1615 01:17:22.600 --> 01:17:25.880 Sean McVay three and six straight up as a favorite 1616 01:17:25.880 --> 01:17:28.840 in this matchup, including we just saw earlier this year 1617 01:17:29.199 --> 01:17:32.000 when they should have dominated and killed and had every 1618 01:17:32.079 --> 01:17:33.760 chance to do it, or not kill them, but at 1619 01:17:33.840 --> 01:17:34.399 least beat him. 1620 01:17:34.920 --> 01:17:36.319 Weird shit happens. 1621 01:17:36.119 --> 01:17:39.720 Double favorites at home and fucking lost outright. 1622 01:17:40.319 --> 01:17:42.199 And let me just say about Samaveay and I have 1623 01:17:42.239 --> 01:17:43.840 a lot of respect for him as a coach because 1624 01:17:43.840 --> 01:17:46.399 its a great offensive mind, but as a game manager, 1625 01:17:47.000 --> 01:17:50.880 that dude makes so many late decisions and his like 1626 01:17:50.960 --> 01:17:53.640 it's almost like his balls shrink up and he can't 1627 01:17:53.680 --> 01:17:57.199 see the big pitcher. For an aggressive offensive mind or 1628 01:17:57.239 --> 01:17:59.720 for an offensive mind, a guy he does not have 1629 01:18:00.319 --> 01:18:04.119 the the aggressiveness the uh just just put this game 1630 01:18:04.159 --> 01:18:06.520 away like a Sean Payton. Like a Sean Payton, if 1631 01:18:06.520 --> 01:18:08.159 he's got a chance to put your his foot on 1632 01:18:08.199 --> 01:18:11.560 your neck offensively late in the game, he's doing it. 1633 01:18:11.600 --> 01:18:15.560 Sean McVay, he bitches out, he'll punt on go for 1634 01:18:15.640 --> 01:18:16.239 it situation. 1635 01:18:16.399 --> 01:18:19.800 What game they lost earlier this year when it was 1636 01:18:19.840 --> 01:18:23.279 fourth and one and he runs the ball middle, what 1637 01:18:23.319 --> 01:18:23.600 was that? 1638 01:18:23.960 --> 01:18:25.880 Well, I can't even believe he even fucking went for 1639 01:18:25.960 --> 01:18:28.560 it usually, I mean that was that wasn't punt rangers, 1640 01:18:28.560 --> 01:18:29.439 I know what you're talking about. 1641 01:18:29.760 --> 01:18:35.520 Uh, decisions like that. It's decisions like that why he's whatever. 1642 01:18:35.560 --> 01:18:37.399 He's a great coach, but there's just little things like 1643 01:18:37.439 --> 01:18:39.520 that that keep him from being well. That's why he's 1644 01:18:39.520 --> 01:18:42.479 three and six against against Cyrus Go in this matchup. 1645 01:18:42.560 --> 01:18:45.159 So I don't know why that one book is taking 1646 01:18:45.199 --> 01:18:47.119 so many so much money and up to five and 1647 01:18:47.159 --> 01:18:49.600 a half. That's crazy because four and a half is 1648 01:18:49.640 --> 01:18:52.720 the byspot for sure. You start getting down to fourth. 1649 01:18:53.359 --> 01:18:55.800 I think it opened at three, so that at three 1650 01:18:55.800 --> 01:18:58.760 it's a RAMS number. At three, it's a RAMS number 1651 01:18:58.760 --> 01:19:01.159 at four, four and a hal half. Anything over that, 1652 01:19:01.239 --> 01:19:02.640 you're you're that's a niners number. 1653 01:19:03.920 --> 01:19:05.560 Yeah, the money's starting to come back in on the 1654 01:19:05.640 --> 01:19:09.039 rams now. Now it's got to four and a half. 1655 01:19:09.079 --> 01:19:12.680 So well, I guess, well, switch to four ninders now. 1656 01:19:12.680 --> 01:19:15.439 I guess it's trickling back to its rams. But it's trickling, so. 1657 01:19:15.600 --> 01:19:17.279 I want two units on the four and a half. 1658 01:19:17.279 --> 01:19:19.520 By the way, nothing on the money. 1659 01:19:19.239 --> 01:19:25.279 Line, got it? Okay, So by the numbers here, powright, 1660 01:19:25.399 --> 01:19:28.319 great sand Fran forty nine and a half. We're sitting 1661 01:19:28.319 --> 01:19:31.159 there for a total. I've got sand Fran losing twenty 1662 01:19:31.199 --> 01:19:33.279 one to twenty two, so that will be within the 1663 01:19:33.319 --> 01:19:35.680 four and a half and it'll be well under kind 1664 01:19:35.680 --> 01:19:37.600 of like the under here. A couple of reasons. Number one, 1665 01:19:37.720 --> 01:19:39.960 not a good matchup for the quarterback, and Stafford's having 1666 01:19:40.000 --> 01:19:42.439 a great year. All those back injuries. We thought we're 1667 01:19:42.439 --> 01:19:45.319 gonna derail them. He can't walk, can't do this. Yeah, 1668 01:19:45.319 --> 01:19:48.119 he's fucking like in line for an MVP. No, how 1669 01:19:48.159 --> 01:19:50.399 about you? That was smoke like it's not smoke. 1670 01:19:50.439 --> 01:19:52.880 He's taking multiple shots in his back. It was not smoke. 1671 01:19:52.920 --> 01:19:57.640 He was legit hurt like it's it's just he's whatever drugs. 1672 01:19:57.640 --> 01:19:58.560 He's on good. 1673 01:19:58.319 --> 01:20:00.319 He's on some good shit. That shit, I know. 1674 01:20:00.439 --> 01:20:04.439 He's immediately like, I don't whatever they're shooting him up with. 1675 01:20:04.640 --> 01:20:07.079 Please and thank you. I'll take that every day of 1676 01:20:07.079 --> 01:20:09.439 the rest of my life. Oh my god. 1677 01:20:09.600 --> 01:20:12.600 He's gonna probably pay for it later later on his life. 1678 01:20:12.680 --> 01:20:15.600 No doubt, but through this one. But he might get 1679 01:20:15.680 --> 01:20:17.479 another fucking shot out at Super Bowl. They keep playing 1680 01:20:17.560 --> 01:20:20.199 like this, but it's not a good matchup for the 1681 01:20:20.239 --> 01:20:22.279 mccooie monster or for him here they both lose a 1682 01:20:22.279 --> 01:20:25.520 point with BPG. It's also not a good matchup throw 1683 01:20:25.560 --> 01:20:27.640 for sant Fran's running game. I told you last week 1684 01:20:27.680 --> 01:20:30.319 it was the spot for c mac. Oh, that's I'm 1685 01:20:30.359 --> 01:20:32.600 always gonna be there minus half a point here. I 1686 01:20:32.600 --> 01:20:34.800 don't like that. But it's a flat spot for the 1687 01:20:34.880 --> 01:20:38.640 Rams running games again. Just it's all points to I know, 1688 01:20:38.680 --> 01:20:41.159 the totals forty nine and a half. Everybody expected fireworks. 1689 01:20:41.760 --> 01:20:42.960 I kind of see it going a little bit the 1690 01:20:43.039 --> 01:20:46.560 other way, type more low scoring game. You know, that's 1691 01:20:46.760 --> 01:20:48.760 that's generally how Sant Frank gets them in these games 1692 01:20:48.840 --> 01:20:51.439 is they shut that offensive down. They do enough on 1693 01:20:51.479 --> 01:20:54.880 their offensive end to score enough to win the game. Again, 1694 01:20:54.920 --> 01:20:57.079 I got it pretty much a coin flip somewhere in 1695 01:20:57.119 --> 01:21:00.680 the low twenties. Settling in there. I agree with the 1696 01:21:00.720 --> 01:21:03.039 San fran H. We've lined up a lot. This week's 1697 01:21:03.079 --> 01:21:03.840 kind of scary. It is. 1698 01:21:04.159 --> 01:21:05.920 It's just lined up. 1699 01:21:06.000 --> 01:21:10.560 But I'll see what's good or bad, bad. 1700 01:21:10.439 --> 01:21:13.319 Bad, But yeah, I like Sant Friend there and I 1701 01:21:13.399 --> 01:21:16.359 like the under two. All right, Moving on to those 1702 01:21:16.640 --> 01:21:20.439 Sandy Diego super Chajes did. 1703 01:21:20.239 --> 01:21:23.640 Not Definitely San Diego, Definitely San Diego. 1704 01:21:23.319 --> 01:21:26.159 Did not go cover against those Tennessee Times on the road. 1705 01:21:26.920 --> 01:21:29.119 But now they're back home and they're laying two and 1706 01:21:29.159 --> 01:21:33.159 a half points heavily juiced, moving towards the three money 1707 01:21:33.159 --> 01:21:36.359 coming in on the Chajes. Uh, it is it three 1708 01:21:36.399 --> 01:21:38.720 at DK right now? Three is juice though on the 1709 01:21:38.720 --> 01:21:42.640 other side at one fifteen, three ads Bovada juice to 1710 01:21:42.680 --> 01:21:46.319 one twenty. So it's a solid two point seventy five 1711 01:21:46.479 --> 01:21:49.119 moving towards two point eight, long horn, what do you got. 1712 01:21:49.000 --> 01:21:51.399 On this one? But still three officially right. 1713 01:21:52.079 --> 01:21:55.000 Two and a half what two and a half for Yeah, 1714 01:21:55.079 --> 01:21:56.680 two and a half. It's two and a half on 1715 01:21:56.920 --> 01:21:59.960 almost every book. A couple of threes sticking out the juice. 1716 01:22:00.239 --> 01:22:06.079 Fair enough, fair enough. Where's my schedule for them? I'm 1717 01:22:06.119 --> 01:22:09.800 definitely gonna be on Pittsburgh here. I don't feel super 1718 01:22:09.840 --> 01:22:12.680 great about it because, again we talked about the indie 1719 01:22:13.600 --> 01:22:14.560 matchup last week. 1720 01:22:15.640 --> 01:22:16.520 They got five tone. 1721 01:22:16.399 --> 01:22:20.199 Numbers and one by seven points. That's I'm sorry. Pittsburgh 1722 01:22:20.239 --> 01:22:22.520 is not good. They're still not a good team. Great, 1723 01:22:22.760 --> 01:22:25.119 that's cool that you got to win, but they're not 1724 01:22:25.159 --> 01:22:28.479 They're just not a good team. Now, why I'm on 1725 01:22:28.560 --> 01:22:31.680 Pittsburgh a couple of reasons. Number one, they lost Joe 1726 01:22:31.680 --> 01:22:34.880 Alt again and they lost Slater coming in the season. 1727 01:22:35.359 --> 01:22:37.720 That's so awesome that you can lose an all Pro 1728 01:22:38.039 --> 01:22:40.600 type left tackle and then you can move your right 1729 01:22:40.640 --> 01:22:43.520 tackle over to left tackle and he plays like an 1730 01:22:43.560 --> 01:22:44.000 All Pro. 1731 01:22:44.479 --> 01:22:45.439 That's badass. 1732 01:22:45.560 --> 01:22:48.640 And that was doing Yeoman's work if I can do 1733 01:22:48.760 --> 01:22:53.159 some al Michaels. But when he got hurt in the 1734 01:22:53.199 --> 01:22:54.920 middle of the sea or in the middle of the 1735 01:22:55.319 --> 01:22:59.640 they lost to the to the Commanders. Joe All was hurt. 1736 01:23:00.079 --> 01:23:03.000 They lost to the Colts. Joe Walt was hurt. Point 1737 01:23:03.039 --> 01:23:06.279 being when they don't have Slater or all, this is 1738 01:23:06.279 --> 01:23:09.560 a very, very beatable team. And we saw last week 1739 01:23:09.560 --> 01:23:13.760 against Tennessee five Tennessee and. 1740 01:23:13.359 --> 01:23:16.039 They couldn't run. They couldn't. I was watching that game. 1741 01:23:16.680 --> 01:23:19.680 Obviously I had the ladder bet on them. They could 1742 01:23:19.800 --> 01:23:24.640 not run the ball against Tennessee when Joe All went out. 1743 01:23:25.039 --> 01:23:26.000 And now you got. 1744 01:23:26.000 --> 01:23:29.000 Pittsburgh, which which as bad as they are on defense, 1745 01:23:29.159 --> 01:23:30.560 they can at least rush the passer. 1746 01:23:30.840 --> 01:23:33.720 And now you got they brought in Trevor Pinning. Talked 1747 01:23:33.720 --> 01:23:34.800 about that earning the podcast. 1748 01:23:34.840 --> 01:23:38.960 They traded traded for Trevor Pinning, a kind of barely 1749 01:23:39.199 --> 01:23:43.840 starting level tackle, but at least he's a starting level tackle, 1750 01:23:43.880 --> 01:23:49.359 and that's barely what they had, huh, and said he. 1751 01:23:49.319 --> 01:23:52.399 Can New Orleans was playing at guard because he couldn't 1752 01:23:52.399 --> 01:23:53.279 even start. 1753 01:23:54.159 --> 01:23:56.920 Right and he felt miserably a tackle. So fair point, 1754 01:23:57.159 --> 01:23:58.960 but it's gotta be better than what they were gonna 1755 01:23:59.000 --> 01:24:01.760 have at the point point B. So yeah, I think 1756 01:24:01.800 --> 01:24:04.800 Pittsburgh can get this game. Any My last point, and 1757 01:24:04.920 --> 01:24:06.880 what I wanted to look up and I had to 1758 01:24:06.920 --> 01:24:10.840 look up, is the Pittsburgh offense as we know, it's 1759 01:24:10.880 --> 01:24:16.039 not good, but they focus almost exclusively on DK and 1760 01:24:16.079 --> 01:24:18.920 the tight ends 'es basically their whole offense. I think 1761 01:24:18.920 --> 01:24:22.000 they run three three, that's right. I said three tight 1762 01:24:22.119 --> 01:24:23.960 end set like thirty percent. 1763 01:24:24.479 --> 01:24:26.840 Others like, what. 1764 01:24:26.840 --> 01:24:28.880 Are they gonna do? Fucking run Darren doesn't even throw 1765 01:24:28.880 --> 01:24:30.439 the tight ends. They'renna run three tight ends. It is 1766 01:24:30.479 --> 01:24:33.239 so stupid here we are. 1767 01:24:33.560 --> 01:24:35.920 Thirty percent of their plays are in three tight end sets. 1768 01:24:36.000 --> 01:24:39.079 So I looked up what are the Chargers against tight ends? 1769 01:24:39.680 --> 01:24:45.000 Thirtieth in the league against tight ends. So everything points 1770 01:24:45.039 --> 01:24:48.439 to Pittsburgh in this game. It's not a sounder, it's 1771 01:24:48.479 --> 01:24:50.920 not a danger zone, it's not a big dick because 1772 01:24:51.039 --> 01:24:55.840 I don't trust the Pittsburgh defense at all. And and 1773 01:24:56.039 --> 01:24:59.560 if if Herbert can make some plays with his legs, 1774 01:24:59.760 --> 01:25:05.039 he can get outside and find Alan McConkey, or just deliver. 1775 01:25:04.840 --> 01:25:07.760 A ball on top like he him and your boy 1776 01:25:07.840 --> 01:25:10.479 Joey Burrow. I swear to God they have all the 1777 01:25:10.520 --> 01:25:13.680 time in the world. They drive me banana sandwich. How 1778 01:25:13.720 --> 01:25:17.760 long they hold on to the god damn football. I mean, 1779 01:25:18.159 --> 01:25:23.159 he is four hits than any other quarterback on dropbacks 1780 01:25:23.159 --> 01:25:26.359 this year. He's taking the most hits, the most hits. Well, 1781 01:25:26.359 --> 01:25:29.119 he's too smart and too talented, and he has guys 1782 01:25:29.119 --> 01:25:31.640 that can make separation. It's not like he's throwing a nobody, 1783 01:25:31.880 --> 01:25:33.720 I know, get rid of the fucking ball. 1784 01:25:34.159 --> 01:25:37.159 Well, he's number three in PFF, so he's playing well. 1785 01:25:37.640 --> 01:25:39.520 I'm not saying he's Yeah, he's having a great year, 1786 01:25:39.560 --> 01:25:42.079 but dude, he is the reason for a lot of 1787 01:25:42.079 --> 01:25:43.199 his fucking problems. 1788 01:25:43.439 --> 01:25:44.279 Yeah, maybe so. 1789 01:25:44.600 --> 01:25:48.439 And I did notice last week the dude runs into 1790 01:25:48.520 --> 01:25:50.880 contact still like I don't understand. 1791 01:25:51.520 --> 01:25:53.760 He steps up when there's nothing to step up into. 1792 01:25:54.119 --> 01:25:55.680 No, I mean when he's already I mean when he's 1793 01:25:55.680 --> 01:25:57.880 already broke containment and he's running twenty yards on the 1794 01:25:57.880 --> 01:26:02.319 field instead of sliding, he's just running into I'm like. 1795 01:26:02.359 --> 01:26:03.359 Herbert, what are you. 1796 01:26:05.119 --> 01:26:05.840 The problem? 1797 01:26:06.000 --> 01:26:09.600 So I look Herbert, and those receivers scare me against 1798 01:26:09.640 --> 01:26:14.520 that horrible, horrible secondary for Pittsburgh. Now, the Pittsburgh picked 1799 01:26:14.600 --> 01:26:18.840 up Kyle Dugger, who got big money in New England, 1800 01:26:18.920 --> 01:26:21.680 and for whatever reason, the defensive defensive scheme with Rabel 1801 01:26:21.960 --> 01:26:24.880 it didn't it doesn't fit. It was always a he 1802 01:26:24.920 --> 01:26:28.479 had lost playing time the whole year, and finally they 1803 01:26:28.600 --> 01:26:31.640 released him, picked him up. They so now they got 1804 01:26:31.720 --> 01:26:35.159 dugger and they moved Jaylen Ramsey to safety. We talked 1805 01:26:35.159 --> 01:26:38.239 about these good defenses that making changes and trying to 1806 01:26:38.239 --> 01:26:40.960 figure out new ways to change a bad defense. Well, 1807 01:26:40.960 --> 01:26:43.359 at least Tomlin is doing something and he's changed the 1808 01:26:43.399 --> 01:26:45.600 players around, adding this new players. So we'll see if 1809 01:26:45.600 --> 01:26:49.600 that continues. But again, it wasn't good last week. 1810 01:26:49.640 --> 01:26:52.159 Even though they got the five turnovers, the strip sacks 1811 01:26:52.199 --> 01:26:54.560 and all that, they still go with twenty points in 1812 01:26:54.600 --> 01:26:55.600 a fuck ton of yards. 1813 01:26:55.640 --> 01:26:58.359 Now, that was against the number one offense in Indy. 1814 01:26:58.520 --> 01:27:02.119 I get that, but I have my doubts. I have 1815 01:27:02.199 --> 01:27:05.239 my concerns at least, so I'm not going all in on Pittsburgh. 1816 01:27:05.239 --> 01:27:07.880 But at the plus three I like it. I knew 1817 01:27:07.880 --> 01:27:09.079 it was gonna take down to the two and a 1818 01:27:09.079 --> 01:27:12.159 half eventually. That's why I banged in Pittsburgh already at 1819 01:27:12.239 --> 01:27:14.039 the teaser up to plus nine, because I it was 1820 01:27:14.039 --> 01:27:15.520 gonna get down to the two and a half, so 1821 01:27:15.600 --> 01:27:19.840 I might as well busted in at the nine. So yeah, 1822 01:27:19.880 --> 01:27:23.279 I'm on Pittsburgh. But this one scares me. What are 1823 01:27:23.319 --> 01:27:23.920 the numbers say? 1824 01:27:25.239 --> 01:27:28.560 So this one's frustrating for me because I thought going 1825 01:27:28.600 --> 01:27:30.560 into it is gonna be a Pittsburgh spot. I'm still 1826 01:27:30.600 --> 01:27:33.319 not totally off of that. A couple of things though, 1827 01:27:33.479 --> 01:27:36.039 do worry me about it. Number one, The thing I 1828 01:27:36.119 --> 01:27:38.000 like about Pittsburgh spot, it's a no call two and 1829 01:27:38.039 --> 01:27:40.960 a half, so the numbers fair and again our powers 1830 01:27:40.960 --> 01:27:42.760 have been very good this year, so I feel confident 1831 01:27:42.760 --> 01:27:44.960 on that. It's total forty five. It's a no call 1832 01:27:44.960 --> 01:27:46.720 in that I have it exactly forty five points, so 1833 01:27:46.760 --> 01:27:49.840 I think we couldn't get a fair line or total. Now, 1834 01:27:49.960 --> 01:27:52.279 the problem with that is I've got the Chargers. The 1835 01:27:52.319 --> 01:27:55.960 BBG has the Chargers winning twenty seven to eighteen, so 1836 01:27:56.039 --> 01:27:58.760 the majority of those forty five are coming from the Chargers. 1837 01:27:59.079 --> 01:27:59.279 Now. 1838 01:27:59.319 --> 01:28:00.800 The reason for that is this is a very good 1839 01:28:00.800 --> 01:28:02.920 matchup for Herbert. Again, it's a bad secondary, is a 1840 01:28:02.920 --> 01:28:06.680 bad defense, and in amongst that the scheme he just 1841 01:28:07.199 --> 01:28:09.880 he does very well against it. This is a bad matchup. 1842 01:28:09.880 --> 01:28:10.840 Scheme was twenty. 1843 01:28:12.159 --> 01:28:13.079 Twenty seven eighteen. 1844 01:28:13.319 --> 01:28:17.039 That's nine points exactly what I'm vell. I'll be glad 1845 01:28:17.039 --> 01:28:18.800 I grabbed the nine on the t's for sure. 1846 01:28:20.479 --> 01:28:22.920 It's not a good matchup for Aaron Rodgers here as 1847 01:28:23.000 --> 01:28:25.840 far as you know versus the scheme. Now, the tight 1848 01:28:25.920 --> 01:28:28.800 end thing that could play a factor into that. Hopefully 1849 01:28:28.840 --> 01:28:30.720 that gets us a little bit close to the number. 1850 01:28:31.159 --> 01:28:33.479 But the other thing that really bothers me is, you know, 1851 01:28:33.560 --> 01:28:35.600 the Chargers kind of been scuffling in the running game. 1852 01:28:35.680 --> 01:28:37.720 They gained a half a point here, which they haven't 1853 01:28:37.720 --> 01:28:41.039 gained much the BBG the running game lately, so it's 1854 01:28:41.079 --> 01:28:43.000 one of their better grades in a little while in 1855 01:28:43.000 --> 01:28:45.840 Pittsburgh grades up flat running the ball against the Chargers defense. 1856 01:28:46.319 --> 01:28:48.199 So if Aaron's not gonna get help from the running game, 1857 01:28:48.560 --> 01:28:51.000 and if he doesn't get five turnovers, which you know 1858 01:28:51.039 --> 01:28:53.000 Herbers will throw you one, that's for sure. 1859 01:28:53.119 --> 01:28:55.680 But yeah, they'll probably get one, maybe a strip side. 1860 01:28:56.119 --> 01:28:58.079 He's gonna have to throw more than one. Yeah, the 1861 01:28:58.079 --> 01:29:01.479 strip sick is always a possibility against fucking wad over 1862 01:29:01.479 --> 01:29:06.520 there for fucking Philadelphia, I mean, Pittsburgh. That the only thing, 1863 01:29:06.560 --> 01:29:11.520 the only reason why I can't just lay the two 1864 01:29:11.520 --> 01:29:13.039 and a half with the Chargers. Though I see it 1865 01:29:13.039 --> 01:29:14.640 going to three, I know it's gonna go to three. 1866 01:29:15.479 --> 01:29:17.359 I know it's probably the smart play. The numbers say 1867 01:29:17.359 --> 01:29:19.760 it's a smart play. That offensive line thing's scariest the 1868 01:29:19.760 --> 01:29:21.199 shit out of me in the fact that Herbert just 1869 01:29:21.359 --> 01:29:24.920 refuses to let go of the fucking ball. Now, if 1870 01:29:24.920 --> 01:29:27.439 they can run the ball, like the numbers say, that 1871 01:29:27.520 --> 01:29:30.760 should have a plus advantage running the ball and get 1872 01:29:30.760 --> 01:29:34.720 into some positive, you know, second and third down situations 1873 01:29:35.119 --> 01:29:37.039 where Herbert doesn't have to hold the ball wherever he 1874 01:29:37.039 --> 01:29:39.640 can just find Maconkie the Honkey on his fucking drag 1875 01:29:39.680 --> 01:29:42.479 road over the middle for those eight and fifteen seventeen 1876 01:29:42.560 --> 01:29:46.079 yard plays and then layer on your Keenan Allen, layer 1877 01:29:46.119 --> 01:29:49.079 on the fucking big play to the whatever the kid 1878 01:29:49.079 --> 01:29:50.680 from TCU that learned how to catch all of a 1879 01:29:50.720 --> 01:29:54.600 sudden and John Jewbons could be had. But the big 1880 01:29:54.640 --> 01:29:56.960 play they can absolutely be Hay the big. They give 1881 01:29:57.000 --> 01:29:59.840 it big plays and an enormous fucking right through the secondary. 1882 01:29:59.880 --> 01:30:02.680 So so there is definitely an avenue for Chicago to 1883 01:30:02.880 --> 01:30:06.760 win this game with margin. I mean, the Charger win 1884 01:30:06.840 --> 01:30:09.760 this game with margin here, especially if Aaron's gonna play 1885 01:30:09.760 --> 01:30:14.000 as bad as the BBG says he is. I don't know, man, 1886 01:30:14.119 --> 01:30:17.279 I want to be on the Chargers, but that offensive 1887 01:30:17.279 --> 01:30:18.800 line scares the shit out of me. I don't know 1888 01:30:18.800 --> 01:30:20.359 what to do. It might be a stay away from 1889 01:30:20.359 --> 01:30:22.680 me just to see how this new offensive line kind 1890 01:30:22.680 --> 01:30:24.560 of comes together and this is gonna be a good 1891 01:30:24.520 --> 01:30:26.920 limus tests. Again, like you said, this is a bad defense. 1892 01:30:27.119 --> 01:30:30.359 So if they can go out and handle their business 1893 01:30:30.399 --> 01:30:34.279 and they win twenty seven right against a bad defense 1894 01:30:34.319 --> 01:30:37.760 something like that, then I'll know, Okay, at least against 1895 01:30:37.760 --> 01:30:40.399 this level of defense, this offense, p Lin's fine. When 1896 01:30:40.399 --> 01:30:42.600 they step up in competition, we might have a problem. 1897 01:30:42.720 --> 01:30:44.399 I just need I need a new litmus test with 1898 01:30:44.439 --> 01:30:46.439 this new mix is what I need to have more 1899 01:30:46.439 --> 01:30:51.119 confidence in this pick. Yeah, let's move on to the 1900 01:30:51.800 --> 01:30:58.720 Monday Night football. It is those Green Baby Packers coming 1901 01:30:58.760 --> 01:31:02.439 off maybe the worst franchise history. I don't know. Can 1902 01:31:02.520 --> 01:31:04.439 it get any worse than losing to a guy that 1903 01:31:04.479 --> 01:31:06.840 completed ten passes in the football game in three four 1904 01:31:06.880 --> 01:31:09.960 hundred yards? I don't know. I don't know that it can. Well, 1905 01:31:09.960 --> 01:31:13.680 now they've got the World champs coming to town, to 1906 01:31:13.720 --> 01:31:16.720 Philadelphia Eagles, who've made all kinds of moves. They played 1907 01:31:16.800 --> 01:31:22.680 chess wherever West playing checkers this game still Now the 1908 01:31:22.720 --> 01:31:26.399 money is starting to come in on Philly and this 1909 01:31:26.479 --> 01:31:28.720 line is all over the fucking place. I had it 1910 01:31:28.800 --> 01:31:31.640 written down at two and a half. However, the West 1911 01:31:31.720 --> 01:31:34.840 gates two and a half flat sergus to and half flat. Okay, 1912 01:31:34.920 --> 01:31:38.239 there's more some outliers. We got some outlier books that 1913 01:31:38.239 --> 01:31:43.439 are down to one and a half. Here's some online stuff. So, well, 1914 01:31:43.439 --> 01:31:46.399 when's it too. Money's definitely coming in on Philly. I 1915 01:31:47.159 --> 01:31:48.560 don't see this close in two and a half. There's 1916 01:31:48.560 --> 01:31:51.680 definitely not going to three. So if you like the Packers, 1917 01:31:51.680 --> 01:31:54.039 I would say, wait, if you like Philly, I'd probably 1918 01:31:54.079 --> 01:31:55.760 get on. I want to be on you now. If 1919 01:31:55.760 --> 01:31:56.960 I like Philly, let's see. 1920 01:31:56.800 --> 01:32:01.000 You that and let me tell you who I like you. 1921 01:32:01.079 --> 01:32:04.640 Hear that, buddy, We're going Philadelphia? Are you kidding me? 1922 01:32:04.840 --> 01:32:10.159 We've We've got we have the Super Bowl champs making 1923 01:32:10.199 --> 01:32:13.479 their chess moves once again. I want one unit on 1924 01:32:13.760 --> 01:32:16.079 the money line and one unit plus the two. 1925 01:32:17.000 --> 01:32:18.640 Because they're just gonna win his games. I might as 1926 01:32:18.640 --> 01:32:19.680 well might as well get both. 1927 01:32:19.720 --> 01:32:22.640 And it was a two and a half for sure 1928 01:32:22.760 --> 01:32:29.199 then for sure again, Tucker Kraft, we we talked about 1929 01:32:29.199 --> 01:32:34.039 this on the Monday pot him going down. Golden is 1930 01:32:34.079 --> 01:32:36.760 already dealing with some injuries. They're probably not gonna have him. 1931 01:32:37.439 --> 01:32:44.039 Dude, who is love going to and and and so 1932 01:32:44.600 --> 01:32:49.840 you want unit on each So uh, this is the time. 1933 01:32:50.039 --> 01:32:51.800 And and I just I keep thinking back. 1934 01:32:51.680 --> 01:32:57.000 To that that image of of Jalen Hurts walking in 1935 01:32:57.039 --> 01:33:00.439 to the was it Kansas City they played early this year. 1936 01:33:00.520 --> 01:33:04.039 They were they were dogs on the road walking in 1937 01:33:04.359 --> 01:33:07.479 and he walked by the screen that that showed everybody 1938 01:33:08.039 --> 01:33:10.439 on the TV like in the in the pregame when 1939 01:33:10.479 --> 01:33:12.920 they and it's like a k C k C k 1940 01:33:13.000 --> 01:33:15.319 C k C ksey and he just walked by. He's like, 1941 01:33:15.640 --> 01:33:19.439 all right, nobody, nobody wants us h all right. And 1942 01:33:19.479 --> 01:33:20.880 I feel the same way in this one. Oh, we're 1943 01:33:20.960 --> 01:33:23.479 underdogs against it again. We're the champs. 1944 01:33:23.520 --> 01:33:26.119 We're under dogs. We're we're getting better, We're making trades, 1945 01:33:26.159 --> 01:33:29.640 we're we're making moves. Our our arrow is is gonna 1946 01:33:29.640 --> 01:33:31.680 go up. Okay, all right. 1947 01:33:31.760 --> 01:33:35.720 So the only thing that that worries me, and it's 1948 01:33:35.720 --> 01:33:37.920 a big worries, is how good this Green Bay defense 1949 01:33:38.079 --> 01:33:41.119 is That like, like they are a good defense. And 1950 01:33:41.479 --> 01:33:43.560 if you can keep it ugly, you can keep it close. 1951 01:33:43.800 --> 01:33:45.680 And you're the home team, of course you got a 1952 01:33:45.680 --> 01:33:47.319 shot to win. And still this game by by a 1953 01:33:47.359 --> 01:33:49.720 field go hopefully less. Maybe if they win, it's only 1954 01:33:49.720 --> 01:33:51.600 about one or two points. And I can I can 1955 01:33:51.680 --> 01:33:53.920 you know sneak out that that against the spread win? 1956 01:33:54.520 --> 01:33:59.960 But I just don't see how green Bay scores. Again, 1957 01:34:00.000 --> 01:34:01.720 this is Philly deepens. I just don't see it. What 1958 01:34:01.800 --> 01:34:02.439 a number saying? 1959 01:34:03.960 --> 01:34:07.079 All right, so the power rangement with you. They got Philadelphia. 1960 01:34:07.520 --> 01:34:10.600 I'm really torn on this one because of that forty 1961 01:34:10.600 --> 01:34:11.840 five and a half when we're sitting in I got 1962 01:34:11.880 --> 01:34:13.760 it graded under. I got green Bay when he came 1963 01:34:13.840 --> 01:34:15.199 talking about I don't know how to score, I don't 1964 01:34:15.199 --> 01:34:17.199 know how Philly scores twenty three sixteen. 1965 01:34:17.319 --> 01:34:20.199 That's fair too, that's fair, But this is. 1966 01:34:20.119 --> 01:34:22.000 Not a good matchup for Jordan Love. He loses the point. 1967 01:34:22.079 --> 01:34:24.159 It's a terrible matchup for her. So she loses two 1968 01:34:24.159 --> 01:34:27.399 and a half points to the VPG. Now, the thing 1969 01:34:27.439 --> 01:34:31.279 that gives me hope on green Bay and real pause 1970 01:34:31.399 --> 01:34:34.560 on Philadelphi and again I've re racked all these numbers 1971 01:34:34.640 --> 01:34:37.600 to take out all Barkley's pires is obviously he's not 1972 01:34:37.600 --> 01:34:39.800 having the MVB season was running for two thousand yards. 1973 01:34:40.119 --> 01:34:42.279 So it was unfair to continue to grade him with 1974 01:34:42.359 --> 01:34:44.079 any of that in there because it kept pushing his 1975 01:34:44.119 --> 01:34:46.840 numbers down, down, down. Well, that's not fair. We can't 1976 01:34:46.880 --> 01:34:49.600 expect any of that productivity, So let's grade it to 1977 01:34:49.640 --> 01:34:52.239 what it is now, which is a very middling running 1978 01:34:52.239 --> 01:34:54.960 game at best. Even with that, he still loses two 1979 01:34:54.960 --> 01:34:57.720 points and Green Bay gains a half of points. They 1980 01:34:57.720 --> 01:35:00.880 should be able to run the ball on. This deepens. Now, 1981 01:35:00.920 --> 01:35:04.800 everything in my soul tells me that you're right on Philadelphia, 1982 01:35:04.880 --> 01:35:06.760 but everything the numbers tells me you're wrong. And then 1983 01:35:06.840 --> 01:35:10.039 I've got these two trends that also support the fact 1984 01:35:10.079 --> 01:35:13.680 that you might be wrong. After the buye and you 1985 01:35:13.720 --> 01:35:17.119 are an away dog since twenty twenty one, seventeen nineteen 1986 01:35:17.279 --> 01:35:20.159 forty seven point two percent. That's not too bad. However, 1987 01:35:20.199 --> 01:35:22.119 the line's four and a half and you're not covered 1988 01:35:22.159 --> 01:35:24.279 by half a points. That's losing by four points a game. 1989 01:35:25.119 --> 01:35:29.720 But you couple that with this after the buye away dog, 1990 01:35:29.800 --> 01:35:33.319 and you're playing a team coming off a loss four 1991 01:35:33.359 --> 01:35:35.479 and thirteen straight up losing by nine points a game 1992 01:35:35.640 --> 01:35:38.439 six and eleven. Ats not covered by four points a 1993 01:35:38.479 --> 01:35:41.520 game at a line of four point nine and six 1994 01:35:41.560 --> 01:35:44.800 and eleven to the UNDA, which supports my undercall in 1995 01:35:44.840 --> 01:35:48.520 the forty five and a half. Look, I know, eventually, 1996 01:35:48.960 --> 01:35:51.600 probably the moves that Philly makes puts them right back 1997 01:35:51.600 --> 01:35:54.600 in contention. They're obviously gonna win this shitty division. I 1998 01:35:54.640 --> 01:35:56.600 don't think there are any I don't think there's any 1999 01:35:56.840 --> 01:35:59.840 disillusions about that. So they're gonna be there in the end. 2000 01:36:00.079 --> 01:36:02.199 I hope that we see this game again in the playoffs. 2001 01:36:02.359 --> 01:36:06.640 We probably will at some point, but this spot in particular, 2002 01:36:06.760 --> 01:36:09.279 in this matchup in particular, I got, I mean, I 2003 01:36:09.399 --> 01:36:11.680 just gotta go. I can't. I don't know that I'll 2004 01:36:11.720 --> 01:36:13.600 bet it because I always wait for the Monday night 2005 01:36:13.680 --> 01:36:15.960 game to kind of see how the numbers went through 2006 01:36:15.960 --> 01:36:18.239 the weekend and see how kind of accurate everything was, 2007 01:36:18.239 --> 01:36:19.680 to see if we're gonna go on Monday done or not. 2008 01:36:20.880 --> 01:36:22.079 So I don't know that I'll bet it. But I 2009 01:36:22.119 --> 01:36:25.399 can't be on Philadelphia just for everything the numbers say 2010 01:36:25.520 --> 01:36:29.960 and those two trends. I mean, but again, everything about 2011 01:36:30.000 --> 01:36:31.800 Soul tells me that you're right if this is the 2012 01:36:31.800 --> 01:36:33.119 spot where they just walk in and win. 2013 01:36:33.279 --> 01:36:36.079 But again, this so, this is so, this is a 2014 01:36:36.880 --> 01:36:39.840 this is a prediction. Obviously it's not. I don't have 2015 01:36:39.880 --> 01:36:40.760 any proof of it yet. 2016 01:36:40.800 --> 01:36:44.800 But the Tank Bigsby acquisition for the Eagles, a real 2017 01:36:44.920 --> 01:36:48.680 running back combo to go because obviously at this point 2018 01:36:48.680 --> 01:36:52.119 we we've we realized is not gonna be you know, he. 2019 01:36:52.119 --> 01:36:54.800 Was so funny because we talked about that and you 2020 01:36:54.800 --> 01:36:56.960 didn't poop poo it, but you don't really think it 2021 01:36:57.000 --> 01:36:58.479 was that big a deal. But I talked about the 2022 01:36:58.560 --> 01:37:01.359 other kid that they had with Barkley last year. There 2023 01:37:01.439 --> 01:37:04.279 was like the third down back, the scat back, the spell, 2024 01:37:04.520 --> 01:37:07.159 the spilling back. Basically he would come in like halfway 2025 01:37:07.159 --> 01:37:09.319 through a series and give Barkley a couple of reps 2026 01:37:09.359 --> 01:37:12.039 off and what a great job he did Phillyppy. Last year, 2027 01:37:12.079 --> 01:37:14.199 they didn't they didn't get Barkley production, but they certainly 2028 01:37:14.199 --> 01:37:16.119 didn't lose anything. Especially in the past game with him 2029 01:37:16.159 --> 01:37:19.199 out there. They have not had that other dude. 2030 01:37:19.359 --> 01:37:20.960 They have not, and they do now. 2031 01:37:21.520 --> 01:37:25.119 They do now, and I think too going forward, you're 2032 01:37:25.119 --> 01:37:28.479 gonna people are gonna realize, like Tank basically, oh shit, 2033 01:37:28.640 --> 01:37:30.880 I forgot Yeah, the Eagles got him. How where's this 2034 01:37:30.880 --> 01:37:33.760 guy busting off seventy yards as a backup part time? 2035 01:37:34.079 --> 01:37:36.800 Like he's a real deal running back that hopefully in 2036 01:37:36.800 --> 01:37:38.920 this game for me at least since I'm on Philly. 2037 01:37:39.319 --> 01:37:43.000 Uh, they feel his impact. 2038 01:37:42.319 --> 01:37:45.000 And you know, like sometimes you lessen the load on 2039 01:37:45.039 --> 01:37:48.760 Saquon Instead of twenty five thirty touches a game, get 2040 01:37:48.840 --> 01:37:51.039 him in that eighteen to twenty two touches a game. 2041 01:37:51.199 --> 01:37:54.880 Maybe you maximize his his you know what he's gonna be. 2042 01:37:54.920 --> 01:37:57.520 He's like the right five touches, right, you get him 2043 01:37:57.520 --> 01:37:59.960 the right five touches, and he's the difference in every 2044 01:38:00.159 --> 01:38:02.479 football game. That's what he was last year. 2045 01:38:03.000 --> 01:38:04.840 And since it's the last game, let me just say 2046 01:38:05.520 --> 01:38:08.680 that Willie motherfucking Lampkin is still on this Philadelphia roster. 2047 01:38:08.760 --> 01:38:09.680 Now he hasn't played. 2048 01:38:10.359 --> 01:38:14.399 He hasn't played, So I since I just happened to 2049 01:38:14.439 --> 01:38:16.000 see his name and I forgot. 2050 01:38:15.640 --> 01:38:17.119 That will boost coming. 2051 01:38:17.199 --> 01:38:20.520 Baby Willy Lumpkins is still a real thing in the NFL. 2052 01:38:20.720 --> 01:38:24.119 And once they finally realized that the five ft eleven, 2053 01:38:24.159 --> 01:38:26.239 two hundred ninety pounds center is going. 2054 01:38:26.199 --> 01:38:28.439 To be a future all bro, Yeah, this is gonna 2055 01:38:28.439 --> 01:38:29.159 open up everything. 2056 01:38:29.239 --> 01:38:31.800 Him and tanks human tank just get him, get time 2057 01:38:31.880 --> 01:38:33.760 going Super Bowl not guaranteed. 2058 01:38:33.840 --> 01:38:35.560 So I just want to throw that out there, Willie 2059 01:38:35.560 --> 01:38:37.880 Pumpkins everybody, all right, boys. 2060 01:38:37.680 --> 01:38:39.479 And girls, that was all the wins come to the ear. 2061 01:38:49.399 --> 01:38:51.239 All right, boys and girls. You know what Simon is 2062 01:38:51.279 --> 01:38:54.319 a time of those three I said, three picks of 2063 01:38:54.399 --> 01:38:57.399 the week. Love lay it on them. 2064 01:38:57.319 --> 01:39:01.520 Baby, oh man, what are we going on? 2065 01:39:02.720 --> 01:39:04.319 Note pad over here? 2066 01:39:04.359 --> 01:39:09.159 You honestly I like something this is This is hard 2067 01:39:09.159 --> 01:39:13.479 because we like a lot of stuff this week. You 2068 01:39:13.600 --> 01:39:20.560 know what, I'm not one. I'm not one to doubt 2069 01:39:21.000 --> 01:39:22.039 the sharps. 2070 01:39:22.359 --> 01:39:25.880 Okay, and when they know something that I don't know, 2071 01:39:26.760 --> 01:39:28.039 I am not. 2072 01:39:28.079 --> 01:39:29.119 Certainly not going against this. 2073 01:39:29.199 --> 01:39:32.239 So let me give out the Washington dead Skins, as 2074 01:39:32.319 --> 01:39:36.760 bo Cephas said earlier, because they're not dead, they're plus eight. 2075 01:39:37.079 --> 01:39:39.840 They're gonna cover this game. Washington Dead Skins and Doug. 2076 01:39:39.640 --> 01:39:41.319 At the eight. 2077 01:39:41.640 --> 01:39:46.119 All right, free pick, free, pick, all right for the 2078 01:39:46.239 --> 01:39:48.960 college pre pick the week, Let's go to Jackson State. 2079 01:39:49.159 --> 01:39:54.600 No it's not Jacksonville. No, it's nothing. It's Jackson State girls. 2080 01:39:54.600 --> 01:39:58.279 They're playing in Mississippi Valley State and Missouri. Fellow, whoever 2081 01:39:58.600 --> 01:40:00.840 puts about it. They're laying thirty and a half. 2082 01:40:01.119 --> 01:40:02.319 What high school are these? 2083 01:40:02.600 --> 01:40:04.439 Oh? No, Literland twenty eight and a half? Excuse me 2084 01:40:04.880 --> 01:40:06.039 twenty eight? Sorry? 2085 01:40:06.680 --> 01:40:11.520 Is this six A Texas State? What is this? 2086 01:40:11.520 --> 01:40:13.960 This is just a step above six, maybe a step 2087 01:40:13.960 --> 01:40:17.319 below six A if we're being honest. Jackson State laying 2088 01:40:17.439 --> 01:40:20.800 twenty eight. Maybe they're gonna go fucking win by forty. 2089 01:40:20.960 --> 01:40:24.079 We're gonna snooze through this one. Let's get that college 2090 01:40:24.079 --> 01:40:28.000 free picked the week Jackson States minus the twenty eight. 2091 01:40:28.159 --> 01:40:31.800 Oh even rhymes. I like that, all right, Longhorn talking 2092 01:40:31.800 --> 01:40:34.159 about that fabulous Patreon one more time. They get all 2093 01:40:34.239 --> 01:40:35.800 these winners this weekend. 2094 01:40:35.800 --> 01:40:38.760 All right, go to that Patreon page Patreon dot com, 2095 01:40:38.800 --> 01:40:42.319 slash bet underscore fgh and, like Bosie was saying, get 2096 01:40:42.319 --> 01:40:43.640 all the winners, go to this college package. 2097 01:40:43.680 --> 01:40:45.920 Sign up for that because it's still red hot. I've 2098 01:40:45.960 --> 01:40:48.840 got an NFL package. C K's got a player cross package, 2099 01:40:48.840 --> 01:40:51.439 and Bosives has an NFL package to all the winners 2100 01:40:51.479 --> 01:40:54.399 over there at that Patreon page. So people, stop throwing 2101 01:40:54.439 --> 01:40:56.880 away your hard earned money on that guessing game. Let 2102 01:40:56.880 --> 01:41:00.560 the pros do that heavylifting. So sign up, Hello friend 2103 01:41:00.760 --> 01:41:04.880 and joining on the funnel watching football, drinking beer and nava. 2104 01:41:05.319 --> 01:41:06.319 Hey you book you again? 2105 01:41:06.439 --> 01:41:11.079 Come on a damn it, girls, never play a book again. 2106 01:41:11.079 --> 01:41:22.840 Steven telling to take yourself. Oh sho