Speaker 1: We've got four college football playoff quarterfinal matchups to break
down today. Do not bet any of them before you
watch this show. Welcome everyone to the Blitz Live here
on the way to talk to YouTube channel. We're talking
Miami Florida versus Ohio State and the Cotton Bowl, Oregon
versus Texas Tech and the Orange Bowl, Alabama Versindiana and
the Rose Bowl, and Ole Miss versus Georgia in the
Sugar Bowl, plus any other games you want to talk
about between now and Friday in the bowls. If you're
watching us live, feel free to drop those questions in
at any time. I am, of course, Brian Power, joined
this week by the usual crew of Ross the Boss,
Benjamin and Ralph Michaels. Ralph, great to have you back
this week. Ross, I am going to go to you first. However,
Miami Florida taking on Ohio State New Year's Eve, seven
thirty pm Eastern on ESPN at eight and T Stadium
in Arlington, Texas largest point spread of the four quarter
final matchups and also the lowest total of the four
quarter final matchups. So how are you breaking this one down?
Speaker 2: My friend?
Speaker 3: Well, you got two great defenses, right, Ohio State only
allowing eight point two points per game and two hundred
and thirteen yards per contests. Miami. I just think that
they fly under the radar a bit, and they prove
their worth at College in College Station last week and
at winover Texas A, and I'm holding the egg Used
to just three points on their home field. This is
a Miami team that comes in red hot as well,
five and zero in their last five in thurs this
five game win streak, they're only allowing eight point eight
points per contests, So this is Ohio State has.
Speaker 2: Allowed sixteen or fewer in all thirteen games this year.
Speaker 3: They're allowing an incredible just three point nine yards per play.
Speaker 2: That's just unheard of.
Speaker 3: And both of these teams are excellent in terms of
stopping opponents on the third down, with Ohio State holding
opponents to a twenty eight percent conversion rate in Miami
at thirty one percent. I just think, I know the
total is low, but it's low for a reason, and
it opened to have forty two down to forty and
a half forty one and a half break in that area.
I'm going to go under the total with this one here, all.
Speaker 2: Right, you know what?
Speaker 4: I con cur you.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be doing a full game preview of
this matchup tomorrow on wager Talk Today with Andy Laying
and Dan Alexander and just a little tease like Ross
laid out, I expect this to be a low scoring affair,
particularly early on.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: This is a fascinating stat that I found when breaking
the matchdown. These two teams, Ohio State Miami are number
one and number two in points allowed in the first half.
Ohio State allows just three point nine points per game
in the first half, Miami right behind it just four
point five points per game in the first half. Of course,
I did cash the first half under in Miami first
round matchup with Texas A and m did not get
any easy. It doesn't get an easier than that, literally,
it can't. It was zero zero tie going into the
break and also had the Canes outright in that game.
I don't think Miami Ross is going to have a
ton of success offensively in this game. You laid out
some of the stats. This outstanding Ohio State defense quarterback
Carson Beck for Miami. I don't think this guy's just
that good against an m The only real success Miami
had offensively was finding some creative ways to get the
ball in the hands of melch Hi Tony. I think
the Ohio State defense, with some extra time to prepare,
is going to be prepared for that. On the flip side,
if there is a concern for Ohio State in this game, guys,
it's the right side of the offensive line going against
a tremendous Miami pass rush. As we saw in that
first round game against an m that Ross just mentioned
a moment ago. This Miami defense is just elite with
Keyante Scott on the field. I'm no NFL draft expert,
but Scott seems like a guy who will play well
on Sunday, So I too would lean the under here,
possibly the first half under for the reason I laid
out these teams again number one and number two in
points per game allowed in the first half nationally. Ralph,
I know you've got a big play on this game.
I'll actually give you the floor right now if you
just want to tell the people about it that you
know you've got to. So I'm going to go to
you next for Oregon Texas Tech. But if you wanted
to take this time to talk about the game, you
know what.
Speaker 5: Brian, I will mention you talked about the defenses. If
you look at the Ohio State and Miami defenses for
this year, it is likely that between the two defenses,
we are going to have six first round players drafted
and twenty defensive players total drafted between these two teams
in this upcoming draft. That shows you just how talented
they are. You know, I do have a big five
percent on this play AT's thirty five dollars. I do
want to mention my bowals number one last year twelve
and three. This year, my bulls a seven and two
run that is a nineteen and five combination, seventy nine
percent my NFL thirteen and six. And I want to
mention this. If you're viewing live or you watch this tomorrow.
Exmus twenty five is still valid for any purchase any
Kapper any package through New Year's Eve. Try college football
in the NFL normal price two nineteen with XMUS twenty
five just one hundred and sixty nine dollars.
Speaker 4: And I do want to mention this.
Speaker 5: I was shocked Ohio State beat Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.
I was there with my son, one of my best
memories with him on the field as a photographer. This year,
this game is going for thirty one dollars. These Buckeye
fans are not showing up like they did last year.
Why because they're saving their money for the next two rounds.
The Orange Bowl New Year's Day average ticket forty six dollars.
Keep his ticket forty six dollars. The Rose Bowl, Indiana
very excited with Bama ninety eight dollars. Sec Cunt Georgia
in the Sugar Dome, keep his ticket to get in
one hundred and ninety dollars. So it shows you the
level of excitement for these arenas where they are relative
to the team's playing.
Speaker 1: All right, so speaking of Miami of Florida, let's talk
about the Orange Bowl noon eastern New Year's Day. Time
to shake off that hangover everybody because it is our
second quarterfinal. Oregon and Texas Tech. Interestingly, and I'm eager
here if you guys agree or disagree with this assessment
my power rate say the wrong team is favorite here.
Oregon has taken a bit of money. They're up to
minus two and a half. I have Texas Tech, ever
so slightly rated as the better team. I know it
was a really bad beat for Oregon, betters in the
first round, the Ducks probably deserved to cover that twenty
one point number against James Madison. That is the classic
backdoor situation. Oregon had its way offensively early. But Texas
Tech defense is for real, guys, And just like the
first game that we talked about Ohio State and Miami,
I think this is going to be lower scoring than expected.
I just can't decide whether I'd rather bet first half
or full game under. So Ralph, I'll go to you
because I know your best bet for the show is
actually on this game, So you can lay that out
right now for everybody it is.
Speaker 5: Let me just start with my best bet for the
show is this game first half under the total. Now,
it's tough to quantify defenses when you're playing such weird schedules,
but if you look at what a team does compared
to what their opponents averaged on the year, it gives
you a very good assessment of the team. Well, this
Texas Tech defense is number three in the country. They're
holding their opponents to one hundred and twenty four yards
per game under what they've averaged the rest of the season.
By the way, they have held eight opponents to either
a season though, or a season number two low. We
always talk about the Oregon offense. We know they're electric.
In fact, they're the most efficient offense in the country.
They're number one in the country, averaging one hundred and
forty two yards per game more than their opponents average.
But we don't talk about their defense enough. They are
top ten holding their opponents under their average. They are
actually number nine in the country. Now I actually have
Oregon power rated one point better because of this Oregon
statistically dominant guys. They played the number seventeen schedule and
they're number one in the country at plus two point
nine yards per play. So remember that Oregon the number
seventeen schedule. Texas Tech has played the sixty seventh schedule.
That is incredible to have a playoff team play that
week of a schedule, and they were only number five
in yards per play diff. But the real reason these
defenses and explosive plays. Texas Tech is number one eleven
allowing plays of ten yards or more. They've allowed the
eleventh fewest and versus plays twenty or more, they are
number five in the country. You look at Oregon, they're
explosive plays on defense. They have been dominated as well.
They are actually number four in ten yard in plays
ten yards or higher and number three in plays twenty
yards or higher. We're going to have a big feeling
out party here. It's early game. Remember Oregon's going to
be starting this game at nine am local timer. At
or ten am I may be heading. I'm about an
hour and fifteen minutes outside of Miami. It's going to
be a beautiful day here. I'm going to go take
this game and enjoy a New Year's day of football.
But I do think that remember Texas Tech has not
been there. Oregon has been there and done that. Yes,
last year again the Rose Bowl, the play Ohio State.
They struggled early. They only had one hundred and thirty
nine yards and eight points in the first quarter. They
ended up bringing that over Texas Tech, brand new to
the playoff situation. I think both teams are gonna run lot,
run often run early.
Speaker 4: I do like the first half under here.
Speaker 1: Okay, so question answered there from Ralph. His best bet
is for the show was on the first half under
here in the Orange Bowl. What do you think, Ross,
You also think it's gonna be a low scoring game.
By the way, Ralph brings up made a point about
Oregon being here before. I just let's note this right now.
I think it's a good time to throw this in.
Last year, as you guys both remember, and I'm sure
most of you watching remember, all four teams that received
a buy into the quarterfinal round lost their first game. Now,
of course, the playoff format has been retooled this year.
Instead of the four top conference champions, it's the four
just highest rated teams, so perhaps a little different. But Oregon,
of course was one of those four teams that gotta
buy ross and lost in the quarterfiles. They ran into
the eventual national champion Ohio State buck Eyes. So I
know you think this is gonna be a great game.
Tell me what you're thinking about this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the best.
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be the best game of
the four quarterfinal matchups. And my best bet in this
game is since I've found out that Ralph is going
to be attending this matchup is according to Dan Alexander,
our producer, the total on Ralph's drinking beers is under
twenty nine and a half over under twenty nine and
a half.
Speaker 2: Miller of lights. I'm going over to total with that, But.
Speaker 5: Those are twelve ounce cans, right, so if I'm drinking
twenty four ouncers, that counts as two correct.
Speaker 2: Yes, that yeah, you know I don't want to lp,
you know.
Speaker 3: So anyway, Ralph Ralph drinks like beer to save calories.
But you know he drinks twenty nine of them. It's
just like me heavy two thinks and saying I'm not
going to eat the next day. Anyway, let's get to
let's get to the specific sit a game. Ill kidding
a side. Guys. Look, I really like this Texas Tech team,
and I think they're not getting enough respect.
Speaker 2: I know that.
Speaker 3: On paper, Oregon has played the tougher schedule, but you know,
defense doesn't lie in this Texas Tech defense. Oregon's defense
is really good too. However, Okay, let's not forget last
week in their win over Or in the first round.
I should say, in their win over James Madison, they
allowed thirty four points in over five hundred yards of
total offense to JMU. Now, they might have played softer
in the second half with it big lead they had,
but still that to me is alarming because Texas Tech
not only are they great defensively, but they could score.
Speaker 2: This is a team that's.
Speaker 3: Scored thirty points or more in each of their last
seven games, and the Texas Tech defense is I think
the key here Number one.
Speaker 2: I look for little advantages.
Speaker 3: Okay, in even matchups such as these. Texas Tech has
forced seventeen turnovers. Seventeen turnover turnovers.
Speaker 2: Over their last I believe. Let me see here, Texas Tech.
Speaker 3: Yeah, over their last six games, they forced seventeen turnovers,
while Oregon is forced only seventeen turnovers all season.
Speaker 2: So you know that. To me, it's a telling sign
to keep an eye on Texas Tech.
Speaker 3: I like to win the turnover battle, and as we got,
as we know as handicappers or just as in general
as football fans, usually the team that wins the turnover battle,
especially in an even matchup such as this, comes out
on top. And all twelve of Texas Tech wins this
year if come by twenty two points or more. So
I have a small lean here at this point. I
may make this a bigger lean on the premium side
with Texas Tech, and I agree, Brian, I think the
wrong team is favored, and I very rarely say that
because I have the ultimate respect for the odds makers.
Speaker 2: But this is one of those cases.
Speaker 4: I think you're spot on.
Speaker 2: Let's put it that way.
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate that. You know, Ross brings up the
point about the turnovers back, and let's stick with that
here because that could play in Ralph to what we're saying.
You know, turnovers obviously if they're if you know, Oregon's
driving the ball and then Texas Tech en force turnover, hey,
that could be beneficial to an under. On the flip,
I'll throw one more thing in, one more statafic because
Texas Tech. If there was one weakness with this Texas
Tech team, they were not particularly efficient in the red zone.
Should they settled for field goals a lot. We saw
that in that first BYU game. I don't know if
you guys remember the regular season game against BYU where
they settled for a lot of field goals. So settling
for field goals obviously also beneficial for an under as well.
So there you go, some voats face a low scoring game. Yes,
I want to.
Speaker 3: Share one more thing with the viewers because we were
talking off here and Ralph said, uh, you know, I'm
glad it's a twelve o'clock game because I have trouble
driving at night, so he's going to consume thirty plus beers,
but because.
Speaker 2: He's driving during the day, he's going to be a
lot safer anyway.
Speaker 4: You you don't be saying that I said that. You
the one that said that. No, you said I can't
drive it at night.
Speaker 1: I'm picking Ralph up. That's the story.
Speaker 5: It's just not seating, right, So, Brian, I do have
one thing, okay, sure, Well those people that say money
cannot buy happiness, that's bullshit and lobbick.
Speaker 1: Happiness buys the defensive line.
Speaker 4: If defensive lines.
Speaker 1: Make you happy, then it is bullshit. Yes, because that Yeah,
they paid a lot for that. That's uh. The New
York Jets didn't spend that much on the defensive line
this year, I think, or at least the Raiders didn't,
but maybe both who knows. So yeah, all right, there
we go. That is the order which we may have.
Ralph Michael's president of the game. Look for look for
the ped on the broadcast when you guys are tuning
in doing Eastern there uh on e sp Ad guys,
if you're catching us live, thank you very much for
tuning in. We appreciate that. Don't forget to both smash
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I believe this is not confirmed. They will, I'm sure
speak into my ear by the end of the hour,
but I think we're going to be back in our
normal time slot one pm Thursday next week for the
college football Playoff sem E finals. Ross, I'm gonna let
you have the floor here for a moment to talk
about obviously one of the busiest times of the year,
lots of not just college football, but we've got the
final week of the NFL regular season coming up as well,
So why don't you talk about what you've got going
on in your neck of the woods over at wager
talk dot com before we get to the next two
quarterfinal matchups.
Speaker 3: Well, thank you, Brian. I'm gonna have picks in all
premium picks, that is, in all four college football quarterfinal games.
I will have a five percent best bet as well,
and I've done terrific with my college football five percent
best bets this year. I believe I'm twelve and three
with those picks this season. Also college football postseason and
picks eight and three so far to start the year,
including three and zero in the.
Speaker 2: College football playoffs.
Speaker 3: Nothing new because since twenty twenty two, forty eight and
twenty four with my college football bowl game in playoff picks,
that's sixty seven percent, folks. And again this year in
college football, I'm hitting sixty three percent of my play
since it started the season. That's number one and win
percentage and also a net profit of over sixty one units,
which is number two in units earned. And since twenty
twenty three, I've made one hundred and forty units of
net profit in college football.
Speaker 2: And hit sixty percent of my place.
Speaker 3: That's number one in both win percentage and units earned
over the last.
Speaker 2: Three seasons in college football.
Speaker 3: And right now, NFL heading into Sunday's action on a
twenty four and fourteen run, which is pretty good sixty
three percent, So a lot of good things happening right now.
You got the NFL the NFL playoffs coming up. My
Weekend Warrior packaged last week for those of you who
joined in, Congratulations, We went eight and three and made
over fifteen units, so a lot too. Like You can
go right to my direct link over at wager Talk,
which is WT dot buzz Forward slash rbwt Dot buzz
Forward slash rb.
Speaker 1: All right, lots of like like that Buffalo Sabers.
Speaker 2: How about that shit got it?
Speaker 1: I just I just I just noticed that.
Speaker 2: There you go the baby.
Speaker 5: You want to, you know, for a guy that gives
me crap all show long. I don't know why I'm
trying to help him with his promos, but I'm just
throwing couple five percent records as well. Ross, you're twelve
and four seventy percent your last sixteen to five percent
overall in college football, you're six and one eighty six
percent and twelve and three eighty percent on top rated
five percent college football plays.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Rolf. Just imagine if I treated Gralph could I.
Speaker 1: Know, that'd be unbelievable.
Speaker 5: It wouldn't change one thing, my friend, It wouldn't change
one thing.
Speaker 3: I know.
Speaker 1: All right, we're all friends here, and uh, you know interesting,
you know we talk about you know, the weather could
be a factor.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: There's really no way to transition to this, so let's
just get in. Weather could be a factor at the
Rose Bowl. Guys, have you seen these reports? It's you know,
usually I'm settling in, I'm, you know, kind of still
shaking off New Year's Eve, a little bit of the
bubbly when I'm watching the Rose Ball on the couch,
and uh, it's just a beautiful scene to look at
Pasadena at that game every year. Well, apparently there's the forecast.
Isn't going to be that great on New Year's Day
for Alabama Indiana. I just keep checking that forecast to
see if those reports proved true. But this is probably
the most anticipated matchup of the day. I don't know
if that's fair to say, but I'll say it anyway.
It's for PM Eastern on ESPN, and I'm gonna just
come out and say, I think this is a changing
in the guard game. As far as I'm concerned, I
do not want to bet against Kurt Signetti here at all.
I think you know this is going to be Indiana.
There's been a lot of doubters. This is a team
I bet in the Big Ten Championship game. People didn't
think that they could handle Ohio State. They didn't two
years ago. They came back, they beat Ohio State knocked
them off for the Big Ten championship game. Let's go
back two weeks ago on this very program, guys, it
was all three of us we talked about the first
round matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. Everyone was bet in
Oklahoma in that game, the line had flipped, the Sooners
went off as the favorite. I believe our general consensus,
I know I felt this way, and I believe you
guys both did as well, was that Oklahoma was kind
of getting overrated in that game. Now we've got a
situation where Aliba just burned a lot of betters, okay,
and here they are an underdog again. But I look
at the wager talk on screen, and when I look
at how this game is being bet, the ticket splits,
if you will. A lot of the same betters who
were burned fading the tide against Oklahoma, they now seem
to be looking to take the points with the Crimson
tide here. Yet this number has crept up from minus
six and a half to minus seven. Ralph, your thoughts
on what we've seen, on what I just laid out there,
are just your thoughts on the Rose bull in general.
Speaker 5: Sir, well, you know what, the only way I could
go is under Brian, and you brought it up and
it was a great point. Let me just say this,
The forecast for Pasadena New Year's Day is one hundred
percent chance of rain with up to two inches. That
is crazy to have a grass field that type of
rain coming down. We might see just an old Pittsburgh
Steelers Cleveland Browns where you know, between the hash marks
is nothing but dirt.
Speaker 4: It could really be that bad.
Speaker 5: So to me, that does change the game significantly. Now
the wins aren't going to be horrible. So sometimes that
actually helps the offenses, you know, more so on artificial
turf because the receivers know where they want to go.
Sometimes quarterbacks slip and fall down. But with a grass turf,
it really just depends. I mean, we really don't have
any history. How many times do we have grass games
for UCLA that are pouring rain or on New Year's Days?
So I don't know that. So Number one for me,
the overs out of the equation. No matter who you like, now,
I actually think if you like the under bett now,
because when we get to tomorrow and the big hitters
start coming in and betting the playoff games with Ohio
State those that haven't yet, I think the under is
going to be the way to go, especially for an
Alabama offense that the last three weeks. I mean, this
is crazy. I'm not talking about Alabama A and M guys.
I'm talking about Alabama. Two hundred and eighty yards, two
hundred and nine yards, two hundred and sixty yards. That
is seven hundred and forty nine yards in three games
and only forty one first downs. That is scary. The
rush attack against Georgia minus three yards. The rush attack
against Oklahoma twenty five carries twenty eight yards one point
one yards per carry. So do I think Indiana is
going to be able to run the ball. Well, They're
averaging two hundred and twenty one yards per game this season.
They're averaging five point five yards per carrying. While we
don't think him in Doze as a mobile quarterback, as
the Heisman winner, he rushed seventy five times, so he
is very capable of taking off, which means either you
have to put a spy on him or you know,
you have to worry about containing his rush attack. So
to me, running game big advantage Indiana quarterback advantage Indiana.
When I look at the defenses, Alabama's rush defense down
the stretch one hundred and fifty two to four point
two to Auburn, one forty one, three point four to Georgia.
They did slow Oklahoma to fifty five yards. You look
at Indiana. We made a joke about this couple weeks ago.
Indiana allowed two hundred and eighteen yards rushing to hold
dominion in the opener.
Speaker 4: Since that time, only one team.
Speaker 5: Has topped one hundred yards, and that was Penn State,
and they still only gained three point five yards per carry.
Speaker 4: Rain has me going only one way.
Speaker 5: I originally liked Alabama in this game plus the points,
figuring they can get a back door touchdown, but with
a sloppy field and rain, that can get a team
that's down at halftime very disenchanted early in the second half.
Slight lean Indiana neither side or total will make my card.
Speaker 1: And you know, ross with the rain and the kind
of the scenario that Ralph layed out there for us,
it made me thinking, I've said this before, I said
it in my right up for the Big Ten Championship game.
I'm going to say it again right here on the blitz.
I think Indiana is the strongest team in the trenches
in the entire country. That is where that is the
strength of this Indiana football team. I think a lot
of people underestimated that going into the Ohio State game.
So what do you think you're about the grand daddy
of them all?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's take a look at this first. First of all,
two weeks ago when we talked on this the first
round matchups, Brian, you brought up a good point. You said,
not only was Oklahoma overvalue, but they were the weakest
Power conference team in the field. And I agreed with
you wholeheartedly. And boy, oh boy, nothing changed when you
looked at their result.
Speaker 2: However, let's think about this.
Speaker 3: Alabama wins thirty four to twenty four at Oklahoma. Impressive, right,
Well that fast, I mean a little bit to see
me because in that game, the Sooners out gained them
three sixty two to two sixty. And Ralph brings up
a good point, not only two hundred and sixty yards
in that game, but two hundred and nine yards against
Georgia and two hundred and eighty yards against Auburn. And
this is a team that just has had a hell
of a time running the football. I mean one, two, three, one,
five out of the last seven they've rushed for eighty
yards or less. And then you look at the other
side of the ball, Indiana's defense. They've allowed eighty nine
yards or fewer rushing in eleven of their last twelve games.
And this is the more balanced team in terms of
running pass production in Indiana. You can make a case
of Alabama, uh played in the SCCY. I get that,
but Indiana, you know, number one team in the country.
Ohio State's not too bad as well, so it's not
like they played cream puffs. They won at Oregon thirty
to twenty. So I like Indiana here. I don't think Ella.
I said it on this show two weeks ago, and
I'll say it again. Alabama should not have been in
this field. They're in the field because of their brand.
There's no way they should have chosen Alabama, who had
a bad loss at Florida State this year against a
team like or over a team like Notre Dame. But
now that that it's done and over with, that discussion
is over. Indiana to me clearly the better team on
both sides of the ball, and I'm going to lay
a seven here with Indiana over Alabama.
Speaker 1: Okay, guys, we've got one more quarterfinal matchup.
Speaker 4: To go, Ralph.
Speaker 5: I just want to bring something up. You know, we
know the volatility of college football, so we don't talk
about teasers, but there's some college football teasers where you
can lay minus one twenty. So if you're like an
Oregon fan or an Indiana fan and a Georgia fan,
perhaps there's some teaser situations that you want to look
at that you know, or the money line parlays, but
you know you don't want to pay the overdues price.
A lot of the NFL places are high, but college football,
some people still off offered a very reasonable prices, and
these lines, the way they are set up, puts a
possibility out there if you're looking for that type of situation.
Speaker 1: Very good point right there. We do have one more
quarterfinal matchup to break down. I want to let everyone
who's watching live now or if you're watching us on replay,
you can ask us about any of the other games
that are taking place on New Year's Eve or Friday,
January the second as well. Of course, this is you know,
after this, guys, we've only got three more college football
games to talk about, of course, the semi finals and
National Championship game. So there's a lot of other college
football if you much as live you know, I know
we've got some games today as well. I can tell
you that I don't have any strong takes on Tuesday's games,
but I have a best bet coming up for my show.
Best bet is going to be on a New Year's
Eve game. Ross has a best bet coming up for
a Friday game, so we'll have you covered Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday with our best bets hanging on for those.
But as I mentioned, one more quarterfinal matchup to break down,
and it is an all SEC affair in the Sugar Bowl.
Ralph mentioned it's a hot ticket in New Orleans earlier
as ole Miss takes on Georgia eight pm Eastern on
espnn's neutral site game close. Not a far trip for
either team. Obviously very interesting handicap here my power ratings.
I actually say this number is a little too big,
but it is worth pointing out when these teams played
earlier in the season in Athens, Georgia closed minus seven
and a half at home. Now they're minus six and
a half on a neutral field, maybe saying to yourself,
you're watching AYVP. Georgia won that first meeting forty three
thirty five and covered spread fair point. However, let us
not forget something and that is Ole miss led that
game most of the way. Furthermore, I pulled this trend
from Mark Lawrence's playbook Bull Rematches involving teams from the
same conference. The team playing with revenge is seven and
one against the spread. Now that one loss actually happened
to be yesterday with app State, but vast majority of
the others took place in these higher profile bows, most
of them with national title implications. So that all being said,
I do wonder Ross and Ralph, if you know, I
mentioned my power ratings, say this number is a little big,
but I wonder if George is peaking at the right
time and my power ratings are selling a little bit short.
A lot of sharp people I talk to seem to
feel that Georgia is peaking at the right time. Ralph,
you're a very sharp individual. How do you feel about
the sugar bar?
Speaker 4: I'm on Georgia. You know, listen, when.
Speaker 5: You know Indiana knew they were going to play all
of Bama or Oklahoma, but you didn't know who was
going to win, so you had to prep for.
Speaker 2: Both of them.
Speaker 4: Old Miss was playing Tulane. Georgia knew who they had
a prep for. That's it.
Speaker 5: Their entire week off was prepped on one team, while
Old Miss did have to prep for Tulane last week.
I same season revenge. Listen, you could throw revenge out
the freaking window. With the playoffs, you don't need. There
is no more motivation than being in the playoff quarterfinals.
Doesn't matter if you lost twenty times of this team
as a favorite, there's that's not going to give you
extra motivation to win a playoff game. I just think this.
I think George has been here, done that. We have
stability at the coach. Yes, you know, Gunner Stockton has
has struggled a little bit down the road. You know
when they when they paid two hundred and sixty yards
against Georgia Tech, I said, well, hell, they played Charlotte
the week before. You know, they had the SEC Championship
on game. But in the SEC Championship they only had
two hundred and ninety seven yards. What I do love
to see is a defense over the last four weeks
that has allowed two hundred and twenty six yards per
game and eleven point eight first downs per game. You
look at Old Miss. Old Miss allowed four hundred and
twenty one yards and twenty first downs to Tulane the
week before against Mississippi State four hundred and forty yards.
Yes they survived without Lane Kiffin. Yes they're excited at
at the new head coach, but they played that game
at home. Now they have to prep the pressure of
a quarterfinal. You don't have your traditional coaching staff in
place to get ready for the next game.
Speaker 4: Georgia's been there, done that. To me, it's Georgia. Uh, Georgia.
I have not loaded it yet.
Speaker 5: I can tell you guys, this Georgia will be a
client play for me in one way or the other.
Speaker 1: Okay, I want Ross Rouths made a very good point there.
I'm glad he brought it up because I think people
remember back. They think back to the Old Miss Tulane
game and it was quite one sided.
Speaker 4: But Tulane did move the ball in that game.
Speaker 1: They just bogged down once they got inside the forty
and just weren't you know, in today's in modern football,
that's if you're not efficient inside the red zone. Inside
the forty, you're gonna lose, and that was the deal.
Tou Lane did have some success getting inside the forty
at least. I see RJ, one of our top people
who've watched us, who's joined us all throughout the year.
He likes Georgia's team total over in this game. What
do you think here? The rematch the All SEC affair
between Georgia and All missing the Sugar Bowl.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Tulane four and twenty one yards of
offense in that game. They were plagued by three turnovers,
you know, and not being able to convert on fourth
down a couple of times in scoring territory. But having
said all that, look, revenge comes into play here, right,
But Ralph, I'd love to know if you can come
up with this stat but same season revenge when it's
a team's only loss, and that's the case. So miss
is playing with revenge from forty three to thirty five
loss at Georgia and that's the only loss of the season.
Speaker 2: However, I'm gonna.
Speaker 3: Look at the total because I agree with with Ralph's
assessment on everything points toward Georgia here in all logical reasoning,
why okay, especially the way they played defensively. But again,
I can't lose sight of the fact we're looking at
seventy eight points scored in this first matchup and an
ole Miss team that's really extremely good offensively, and I
don't think losing their head coach is going to change that.
The same talents there, the same philosophy is there. And
by the way, I can't talk about an ole Miss
game without talking about Lane Kiffin. Okay, So here's a
guy who now jumps ship before his team goes to
the playoffs and gets this multi million dollar contract, mega
million dollar contract.
Speaker 4: He goes shopping for the first time.
Speaker 3: I'm in Louisiana his grouchery, and he takes a bag
and they tell him and he says, they tell him
it's twenty cents.
Speaker 4: He says, I'm not paying for the bag.
Speaker 3: You believe this piece of crampliable?
Speaker 1: So I saw the Twitter and I was gonna send
it to you ross the guy. Yet he he just
walked home with the basket. I'll tell you what's.
Speaker 2: Schools Keep paying him, Go ahead, keep paying him.
Speaker 3: The guy hasn't won a national championship yet, and he's
the highest paid coach ever in college football seems like anyway.
Having said all that, I just think, even with Georgia's
gaudy offensive numbers of late, I just think the total
of fifty five and a half considering what the first
matchup produces low. I'm not crazy about this total, but
I have a very small lean.
Speaker 2: Toward going over the total in this matchup.
Speaker 3: And I just can't pull the trigger on Georgia right now, Ralph.
Speaker 2: It's just that revenge factor and being their only loss in.
Speaker 3: I just think, I, Oh, this has got to be
very motivated, and yet they only played too lane in
the last game.
Speaker 2: But they have a chip on her shoulder, I think,
and I can't get by that.
Speaker 5: You know, Brian Missus Ross's secretary chiming in here. Oh,
of course I have those numbers for you, as you
asked for, sir. Since two thousand and seven, there's only
been seventeen times where a team has lost and it's
their only loss of the season. They're now playing with
revenge eight and nine straight up eight eight and one ats.
They are three thirteen and one over under, so eighty
one percent eighty one percent of the under in the
rematch BYU Texas Tech was one this year, George Alabama
was one. Those both went under last year. George Alabama,
Texas Georgia, and Oregon Washington. All four have gone under
the last couple of years in those rematches with one loss.
Speaker 3: Well, thank you Ruff as usual, you don't disappoint not
you know, those numbers are pretty uninspiring either way.
Speaker 6: But still realize we're talking about seventeen times since two
thousand and seven. So yeah, you're never You're never going
to base it on a situation that is that small
a sample size. But again, a three and thirteen over
under number does make sense.
Speaker 5: You notice team, well, you're you're likely a conference opponent,
you're playing them for the second time, just like the
second meeting. In NFL Division games, that familiarity does lean tend.
Speaker 4: To lean to unders.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely so my thought yo, as I'm sitting here
and thinking more about the game listening to you guys,
I think if you do like the old miss side,
I think you can only bet them first half. I
don't see a scenario. Because we've talked about this on
the program. All your Georgia has gotten has had that
nasty habit of getting off the slow starts. I don't
necessarily they've sort of got over that a little bit.
It wasn't a case in the SEC championship game, obviously,
But I don't see a situation at least and again,
all mis led the majority of the first three quarters
in the regular season matchup in Athens. I just don't know.
If there's a scenario, guys, where you know, Georgia gets
up big and then ole Miss claws its way back.
That's sort of the game script in my head that
I don't envision. I do see a world where if
ole Miss gets up early, Georgia might be a good
live bet to come from behind and win like they
did the first time around. So that, ladies and gentlemen,
are your previews for all four quarter final matchups in
the College Football Playoff. You are on the midst please
smash that like button show your support for the show.
If you have any questions on any of the other
bowl games this week, any specific bowl games you would
like to hear about, please comment down below or forever
hold your piece. But Ross and I both have game
that we are going to talk about here for our
best bet in case you missed it earlier. Ralph is
already chiming with his best bet. It was the first
half under on Texas Tech Oregon in the Orange Bowl
New Year's Day. I'll get ross of Fitz all right,
I'll start us off because my game is on New
Year's Eve. Here's a trend for you, Ralph. I think
you know this one. It's probably not in your database though,
because it's not very technical. Bowl teams this year that
had to fire their head coach for the hanky panky
or one and aller against the spread after Ohio University
beat UNLV. Look, it's no joking matter, it's no laughing matter.
What happened with Sharon Moore at Michigan. However, I'm going
to punch back at the market. I don't think anyone
wants to bet Michigan this game. Well, you know what,
I'm going to bet Michigan in this game very similar
to the game I just mentioned a game I broke
down on wager Talk today last week, the Ohio UNLV
Bowl game, the Frisco Bolt.
Speaker 2: I not didn't.
Speaker 1: I said, look, yes, I'm at Ohio Universe Steelum. I said,
it's no homer. I'm not being a homer. The coach
is gone. It was under scrupulous circumstances, but the players
are all still there, and I didn't agree with the
line move there. You take a look at this Michigan Texas.
It's not apples to apples necessarily, but they're not opting
out for Michigan really, unless if there's some sort of
mass exodus that's gonna happen in the last minute we
don't know about. Meanwhile, Texas is without seven defensive starters
for this game. I think that these kind of situations
have a galvanizing effect with the players that stay. If
this was a regular season game on a neutral field,
I would only have Texas favored by one and a half.
I think Michigan stays within the number here. I'll take
the points with Michigan against Texas on New Year's Eve
in the I believe that is the cheese it bowl
to be said while we're getting our sponsors right, So
Michigan plus seven and a half my show.
Speaker 3: You know, Brian, we often talk about in games that
are non are not college football playoff contest, what team
is motivated the most?
Speaker 2: And think about it.
Speaker 3: You know, Texas number one in the preseason ratings, and
here they are, you know, nine to three and playing
in a Bowl game against a Michigan team that's also
nine and three.
Speaker 2: Let'd me be interested to hear you guys comments on this.
Speaker 3: I'm not crazy about Kyle Whittingham being named head coach.
Now let me clarify. I think he's an excellent head coach.
I think in the short term it's going to pay
dividends for Michigan. But when you hire a sixty eight
year old head coach, and I'm sixty eight, so I
don't want to throw stones at a fellow senior.
Speaker 2: But you know, how long is he going to be around?
How many players are going to get talked out of.
Speaker 3: Going to Michigan by opposing coaches because who knows how
long this guy is gonna last. So you know, again,
I like the hire on the surface, but I don't
like it in terms of future. So we'll see.
Speaker 1: You know what I think it was, Ross Ralphie, you
could chime in. I think it was. It's an obvious
and it's so funny because I joked my father in
law came in on Christmas and he said Michigan hired
winning him, and I said, take a drink. Every time
you hear someone on sports that I go, well, this
is a guy who runs a clean program, and my
father in law goes, they already said that, and I said, well,
there you have it. I think that's what this one.
They wanted to hire a guy. It's a messy situation.
Speaker 2: Obviously Mormon country, right, Yeah, yeah, he's got and he is.
Speaker 1: Kyle Whittingham is a has a kind of a spotless resume,
and I think they wanted to hire someone like that.
You know, again, it is a short term thing. Obviously
he's not gonna be around. Well, he even said himself,
this is kind of you know, the last ants for me.
I think he I think it's a situation for him
to get to a team that can can win a
national championship.
Speaker 2: You know better.
Speaker 1: I mean Utah, they better.
Speaker 3: Be real good in or transfer portal to brant you know,
because I just don't see a lot of kids committing
four and five star athletes committing to a coach that
he may retire in two or three years, you know
what I'm saying.
Speaker 4: So that was my that was my thought.
Speaker 5: Is the age and he's not known as a great
recruiter because at Utah he could get players in the
one hundred to two hundred rankings that were good for
Utah and can get them wins. That doesn't get you
wins in the Big Ten. When you're Michigan. You need
the top one hundred, top fifty players. You need those
five star recruits to be able to compete with Indiana,
Oregon and Ohio State. So that that is my concern.
But the transfer portal doesn't concern me as much because
Michigan has as much money as anyone and they're willing
to share.
Speaker 4: They just you know, it's it's but you can't.
Speaker 5: Well, Texas Tech sort has proved that you can transform
one side of the ball in the transfer port of
them one year, but it's tough to do that on
both sides of the ball in one season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I want to bring up one.
You know, let's talk about the coaches that are gone
now for Michigan, obviously Whittingham coming in. I gotta be honest,
you know, people, you know, we've talked a lot here
on the show the last couple of weeks about these
teams that have these interim stabs and how they're laying ducks,
some of them basically just showing a completely ill prepared
to play their bowl. I'll say this. People around Michigan's
program and tell you this, to More was not the
greatest head coach. He was far from it. And Chip Lindsay,
the OC, who is also gone, he's stunk too. To
be honest with you, I think Biff Pogey's gonna have
this team. But you know, Biff is kind of a
wild guy. I think you're like, he's the kind of
guy you want as an interim in a bowl. I
think he'll have you motivated for He's not a good
long he's not a good long term head coach solution either,
but he'll have a motivated And there's a lot of
people who follow this Michigan team will tell you Raw
and Ralph, they played better in the games that Moore
was suspended. The offense looked better. Now some of that
as the opponents they were against. They faced some lightweights,
So we'll see obviously more more Ralph, I see smiling, Yes, more.
We'll always have that record against Ohio State that he
can look at his wall. But he is I think
bigger problems, bigger fish to fry right now than that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, you know I was going to say that
you know, Mexico four hundred and fifty two yards, Central
Michigan six hundred and sixteen yards and who is their
other one? Oh in Oklahoma they had two hundred and
eighty eight yards. So yeah, he looked better, but it
is what it is. But remember remember how Bryce young.
Bryce Underwood started as a young quarterback, so it takes
time to build that. So you know, like I said,
I think you're one hundred percent right. Michigan needed the
integrity higher and this was the integrity higher.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: So we've got two best bets here for the show.
Ralph Michaels first half under Morgan Texas Tech I Brian
Popper taking the points with Michigan against Texas. Ross the
Boss please round us out here and give us the
third leg of our show.
Speaker 3: Best Bet Holladay Bowl on Friday, January second, between Arizona
and SMU, two teams that come in at nine and
three identical records. In a very rare situation here for
a bowl game, not a playoff game, but a bowl
game where both teams, at least in the last five years,
where both teams are pretty much not affected by either
the transfer portal or opt outs. Both rosters stay in tech.
Now here's the thing I really impressed with the way
Arizona finished the season.
Speaker 2: To me, is very vulnerable here.
Speaker 3: I mean you're looking at an SMUT team that had
two bad.
Speaker 2: Losses this year.
Speaker 3: Out of their three losses, they lose at wake Forest
thirteen to twelve, is a four and a half point favorite,
and then with an op opportunity to go to the
ACC title game, is a thirteen and a half point
favorite on the road at kill They lose the game,
and lost it handily.
Speaker 2: They were outplayed thoroughly.
Speaker 3: So but Arizona finish as a season five and oh
straight up, and I just think that they have all
the momentum right now. And those five wins came by
seventeen points per game. In a virtual even matchups such
as this, if you can get minus one forty or
lower as a money line on Arizona, take the money line.
If not, don't hesitate the late of two and a
half or three on Arizona. Here over SMU, I like
that play quite a bit here.
Speaker 1: Oops, sorry, Dan, I got atlet you trigger finger part
and me there there it is, Okay, there we go.
That's Shell's may for trying to do it, somebody you
need me for, Brian, I got very excited to do that.
Then I that, of course I just showed the wrong graphic.
All right, the Blitz squad right there, you see it
right there. You just heard the man Ross, the boss Benjamin.
He likes Arizona on the money line against SFU and
the holiday bawl Ralph. He's talking New Year's Day. He
might be there, folks rooting this one home for US
Oregon Texas Tech first half under twenty five and a half,
and then I like the Michigan Wolverines getting seven and
a half against Like that number, by the way, is
now trickled down to seven. If you're in the comments,
I'll save you, guys. Yes, I still like Michigan at seven.
I would like them even down to six, to be
honest with you. In this game, you know, Ross added
a very salient point in there that you know Texas,
I don't know how thrilled they are to be in
this game. Why I think the Michigan side's going to
be galvanized, Guys, I neglected. I do see some of
the questions on today's games. We'll get to those in
just one second. We do all just want to remind
you what we've got going on this week wagertalk dot com.
Shame on me, I forgot to mention here during the
program eight and two start to the Bulls over all
twenty three and ten with all college football since November first.
If you are watching this live, well thank you, and
you can get my next college ball ball winner for
just five dollars today only. Of course, that price will
change at midnight Pacific time. It will go up. But
we do have a four percent best bet our next
bowl winner. It is for New Year's Eve, going right now.
So again eight and two in the Bulls twenty three
and ten all college football since November first. Seeing it, well,
so there you go.
Speaker 4: So Brian, let me recap. You are eight and three.
Speaker 1: Bull run eight and two, eight and two.
Speaker 5: Ain't too ross? You're eight and three. Yes, my ball
run is seven and two. That is a combined twenty
three and eight for the Blitz Handicappers college football bawls.
Speaker 2: Nice job, gentlemen.
Speaker 1: Why they passed to be on the show. We love
it so yeah, and you heard these guys. Ralph has
the big five percent play ross locked and loaded as well.
Is there anything else you guys would like to talk
about I did see that there was.
Speaker 2: A quick question here Dan.
Speaker 1: I will grab this yere if you'd allow me. Somebody,
there are some ball I have nothing on the bulls today.
There are this is like opt out city on Tuesday
on the balls, and there is a lot of variance.
We've got questions about Tennessee and USC. Did any of
you guys, Did either of you guys have anything to
say about today's bowl games? Because I'm gonna throw my
hands up and say I hate all these matchups. I'm
not betting them.
Speaker 4: I broke I broke.
Speaker 5: Down Tennessee and the USC game on wager Talk today,
so we don't have to rehash it.
Speaker 4: Go watch the wager Talk replay for both of those games.
Speaker 5: For me, nothing on the Coastal Carolina and I did
pass as well today in college football, guys, there's three
games that's on all day. But do the smart thing
money management. If this bowl game were played on a
traditional Saturday with sixty games, would it be one of
your top five plays? That's basically my rule if I
use a bowl game or not.
Speaker 3: Anything, Hi, you, I do have a premium pick selection
on the Music City Bowl today between Tennessee and Illinois.
Speaker 2: It's up right now. It's only five dollars.
Speaker 3: It's Tuesday fight out there are Tuesday folks in Like.
Speaker 2: You know, Rulph has brought up our records in the
college football both games and I'm not going to bring
that up again.
Speaker 3: But I am you know, number one in college football
over the last three seasons in both win percentage in
units an hitting sixty three percent this year. On my
college Football bring Me picks Tennessee Illinois winning side up
right now. And for those of you who follow me
on wager Talk TV on my solo videos where I
do a deep dive on games, I do have a
deep dive on USC and TCU today and you can
get that by going to wager Talk TV. I do
have the winning side and I break it down and
tell you exactly why I came to the conclusion.
Speaker 2: So there you have it.
Speaker 5: Brent Briant, O next next year, if you have Ross
and I back again.
Speaker 4: Uh, you know, if we pay you enough.
Speaker 5: Let me say this, if we bribe you enough to
allow you to be back on the show next year.
Speaker 4: Again, here's what I'm gonna do for the offseason.
Speaker 5: Well, let you know, let's do a couple of summer
shows like we did, you know, doing some things next
year when we have our early bird for college football,
I will make one for three of us. You buy two,
you get one freeze, so you get all three of
us if you're interested in following us. Now that means
you may get some opposite plays, and that happens. But
again it's not like we all handicap exactly the same way,
So keep an eye for that. We'll make sure to
bring that up in the summer when we do some
summer preview shows.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and we're all looking forward to a big finish
to this year as well. I remember I think I'm
gonna have a pretty big play on New Year's Eve,
just to pardon me, New Year's Day, just a little
preview that some some might say that you might want
to go to WT do buzz slash VP for that.
Of course, last year on New Year's Day, well, we
didn't have many better plays than we had on the
first day of the year, guys when we had Ohio
State money line over Oregon in the Rose Bawl. That
was a five percent play. Great way to kick off
the year. We're gonna finish twenty twenty five strong, start
twenty six strong as well, all three of us. We'll
be back next Thursday. We will have two games, just
two to discuss. It might be a truncated addition of
the Let's who knows. We could probably talk for an
hour about two games, but it'll be the College Football
Plaoffs semi finals to handicap. We will see you then.
Until next time, let's cash some tickets