Speaker 1: Welcome into Wager talkslast call. Sorry for the delay this morning.
We've had some wonderful audio and tech issues. You guys
are not gonna get it be joined by VR, and
I apologize for that, but I do have some sharp
information from Art to Caesar from the Westgates Superbook. I've
also got Teddy Covers and Brian Power on to talk
some college basketball and NFL. So we've got a wonderful
show ahead even despite all of Saturday morning, Like I
need more coffee already, it is what it is. We're
gonna get right into. You guys have questions, please drop
them in the chat. You guys know Teddy Covers from
the Opening Line Report. I'll be back with him on
Monday per usual. Teddy, We've got a pair of NFL
games today that we're gonna get into. We're gonna talk
some college basketball with you as well. But one of
my favorite things that we talk about on the Opening
Line Report because it does help me so much in
my handicapping, is power rating. So I'm going to make
you divulge a little bit of behind the scenes of
Opening Line Report while we've got extra time today because
I plan on a hard forty five minute show, and
now we're down one guy, so that means you and
Brian Power get a little extra FaceTime with me. So, Teddy,
let's get into some of these NFL games right out
of the gate. Then I'll drop some of the stuff
from Art to Caesar at the Westgate Superbook, and we'll
take some questions from the chat. Let's talk power ratings.
These are so crucial to any handicapper's success, especially in
the NFL, so I kind of want you to rattle
through some of these things as far as what you
like to use. Now, you divulged to me on the
opening line report that strength of schedule matters so much
more than we realized during the playoffs. And I'm not
lyed from a public's bathroom, Shawn. I'm at my dad's
house like I am every third Saturday every other week.
I'm just in this tiny extra bedroom trying to keep
the chaos that is outside of this room away from
my microphone.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Kelly, how are you today, Teddy?
Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm gonna grab an extra little swig of
this energy drink and there I'm gonna get my notes
ready for your power ratings. Even though I've already got them.
I want a kind of an updated set here going
into wild Card weekend. Set us up for some success
here and talk about what you like to utilize as
far as a handicapping perspective for power ratings and how
our audience can learn from you.
Speaker 2: I will.
Speaker 3: But first, of course, Kelly, the people like your hungover.
Kelly was efforting really hard to get Johnny on the
air for about fifty You know, you guys don't see
what goes on behind the scenes. Luckily I get to
be a fly on the wall for this stuff. So
they were trying to work through some computer issues. It
wasn't Kelly being hungover. It was Kelly working really hard
to try to get Johnny on air, and of course
they couldn't figure it out. So that's why I get
to go first today when it comes to NFL power ratings. Really,
when I moved out to Las Vegas and moved out
in nineteen ninety eight, and that was the first thing
that I was like, I want to start making operatings,
you know. Uh So I asked a couple of people,
how do you do it?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 3: That was my question for the pros when I was
when I was first getting up to it to be
in the chat like you guys are now and talking
to some of the pro he how do I start powers?
Speaker 2: How to do it?
Speaker 3: And the best answer I got was from and I
don't remember who gave it me. They're like, find three
sets of power ratings for the same sport, you know,
find you know, use this guy's numbers and that guy's
numbers and the other guy's numbers, turn them into one number,
and then it just from there. So you're not taking
any one person individual. You're kind of putting, uh an
amalgamation of numbers together, and then you start adjusting. It's
like the first year your rings won't be worth anything,
and they weren't. The second year, they're worth a little something.
Speaker 2: By year three, I was.
Speaker 3: Real comforable making numbers in the NFL, and I started
making numbers in college football and the.
Speaker 2: NBA and down the line.
Speaker 3: So with power ratings, it's just you just dive in,
you know, and and team A, team B home field
is my number, where the market number is yes? No,
if not, why not? Sometimes your opinion is better than
the market, you know. That's what I look for in
my world is when my opinion is better than the market.
You know, is different and better than the market opinion
about a team. You know. That's the that's the goal
of all of this KEL is to find teams that
the market is pricing one way and you're seeing in
a different in a different light.
Speaker 2: You talk about.
Speaker 3: Strength of schedule, real quick, strength schedule is important only
in one round.
Speaker 2: The Wildcard round. Really wildcard route.
Speaker 3: Is essentially meaningless. But for the Wildcard round, strength of
schedule has been like if you take the team with
the harder schedule, you cash two out of three tickets.
Over the last thirty years, I mean, it's it's pretty
significant when it comes to and I'm say a little bit,
it's more like sixty four to sixty five percent, but
it's well over sixty percent over a significant sample size.
When you find the strength of schedules differentials that are
pretty dramatic.
Speaker 2: Wildcard route only.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well let's get into some of these
really quick, because well there's some fraudulent teams possibly that
are playing this weekend. And I'm curious to hear what
you have to say. Teddy again, if you guys are
just joining us, welcome in. This is the opening line report,
not an extended version or so this is the last call,
not an extended version of the opening line report. But
this is kind of a preview what you guys can
see with Teddy and I on Mondays as well, because
I do think that this is extremely important Teddy, when
breaking down some of these games, we can talk about
market moves and so forth, but understanding what these teams
should be priced at gives people a better idea of
what they should be betting early or of course up
until late, depending on where the market moves.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's that's the advantage of making your
own numbers. You get a sense of you know, before
you make your numbers, that number feel wrong, you know,
and there's lots of numbers.
Speaker 2: Oh that's a trap, you know.
Speaker 3: And when you start making power ratings and making your
own point spreads, you realize, Oh, no, that's just what
the number is, you know.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's pretty close to the number.
Speaker 3: Oh, I understand why they're own And it's always with
the road favorites, you know, the road. Oh they're only
laying three and a half on the road. Oh they're
only laying four and a half. Oh they're only in
two and a half, and once you start making numbers,
you understand, Oh, that's what the number needs to be.
Speaker 2: That's what the number should be for these games.
Speaker 3: When it comes to this week in the NFL, I'm
in play on three of the six games. I'm not
in play on the other three. So I'm happy to
talk about whichever one's you want to talk about. But
I ain't gonna. I ain't gonna give it all away
to client. I mean, that's why you sign up for
the all access pass. That's why you sign up, you know,
client wise, over at wall you talk dot com or
on my page will be that buzz backslash tc so
you get all this stuff. But I'm happy to you know,
I'm happy to discuss any of the three games where
I'm not where we're not involved with the clients.
Speaker 1: Right, All right, Teddy, let's talk about the first game,
because I actually don't know what your client plays are.
Sure hand up, so if I if I misspeak, I'm sorry.
But let's talk about a game that I talked about
this morning on mad Don Radio. They call and they say, hey, hell,
we want to talk about the Rams Panthers. I said,
why do we Why do you want to talk about
that this is the worst game on the board, and
I said, here's the reality. You and I did the
opening line report Rams were minus ten. I did the
turned around and did the show with crack. Crack said, yeah,
we laid ten. John Murray on Wednesday said, Yep, the
Sharps took Rams ten. Here's kind of the reality. Are
the Carolina Panthers a little fraudulent at times? Yes, but
they did just beat this team. So let's talk about
maybe more of a situational perspective. Matthew Stafford three turnovers
in that game, two interceptions in the first quarter, fumble
there late after getting sacked, and Carolina upset everybody in Survivor,
right if they laid it with the Rams. Here's kind
of my question. Do when it comes to the playoffs
from a power ratings perspective, you don't get Rich Lane
double digits on the road here, So when.
Speaker 3: There's a double digit's favorite in the NFL and the postseason,
they're double did shocked for a reason, all right, And
note this is not a public play. This is the
wise guys like laye the points in this the first
meeting between these two teams, the Panthers win. Let's call
it somewhat fraudulent, all right, if membership, I think they
forced only five third downs for the Rams the whole game.
LA moved the ball up and down the field. They
just turned it over Stafford. I remember the quotes from
Matthew Stafford. We were talking about it on the NFL
Opening Line Report first thing Monday morning after that game,
where Matthew Stafford was like, yeah, I didn't play well.
I had a really crappy game, YadA, YadA, YadA. So
Stafford took a lot of the blame on itself. Carolina
was plus three in turnovers, and I'm trying to member
there were two or two or three and three of
third downs they are on fourth downs. I should say
they converted all their fourth downs. So basically, they got
a whole bunch of extra possessions in that ballgame and
found a way to win it. We'll give them credit
for finding a way to win it. They were not
the better than two teams. They were lucky. You know,
the things broke right for Carolina on that day in
the postseason. You don't necessarily expect that to happen twice.
All Right, LA is the better of these two squads.
But the points spread is the great equalizer, you know.
And the Panthers this year have been remarkable in one role, Kelly,
and remarkable. You know, they've lost nine games, So after
each of their last eight losses the following week, they
came back and covered the points bread Each and every
one of them worked for me in Tampa last time. Boy,
they were ugly, wasn't pretty, but they got in under
the number, okay, And that speaks to a team's character,
and it speaks to where they're being valued in the marketplace.
When a team goes eight and o ats after a loss,
A the betting markets don't respect that team, and b
they showing a collective resolve to compete, not a collective
you know, when not a team that's you know, gonna
get slapped around a week after the not the Jets
down the stretch, you know, leave it every day by
twenty three plus. So when I know a team's gonna
compete and their double digit home dogs, that's the lean.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: But that I actually put any money on Carolina Hell no, no,
And I didn't neither.
Speaker 1: But the contrarian in me, Teddy wants to say, you
guys are out of your minds. This is a large
number against again, a team who wants to be competitive
and who wants to play like I will say that
this Carolina team has showed some real tenacity at times.
I mean that New England game comes to mind where
you're like, good grief, could they have played any worse?
But outside of that, I would agree with you they
had some valiant losses. Let's keep going through this list
real quick. Before we get to Brian Power, we're gonna
talk some college basketball and art to Caesar's sent me
like forty two games, so we're gonna go over those
as well. I'll drop those in the chat as well
as goes over those with you guys. But Teddy, let
me know if you have a play on this one
Green Bay or Chicago. Public's on Chicago, sharps on Green Bay.
I don't know if that is the case here, Teddy.
I was really hoping on Monday. I know the opening
Line report audience as well as the bet on it
and last Call audience hates that I talk about teasers,
but they've been so good this year. I was like,
please please get me green Bay plus one and a
half and then move the market. Let me get Chicago
plus one and a half so I can tease both sides,
watch this game with my family. By the way, I've
got Bears fans over here, Packers fans over here, and
I'm like, and then I can just sit back and
not care who wins and cash both sides. But that
is not what's gonna get to be the reality here.
The Bears are teasable, but I don't know if I
really love the Bears in this spot. Let's talk about
this game if you don't have it enough for sale
for clients, because I'm really intrigued. I think this is
going to be one of the better closer games of
the weekend. I could see this game landing one like
every single book maker does not want it to.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bears are very teasable, haha, Bears. If you
have a Bears fan of your life, you've been teased
them as long as you've known them, or at least
since nineteen eighty five or so. But of course, when
you talk about plus one and a half for the
classic six point teaser, the Wong gets it up over
a field goal and then over a touchdown, and that's
what we look for when it comes to teasers is
the classic Wong betting strategy of getting the you know,
getting capturing the threes and the sevens with your teaser.
So Chicago certainly in that regard, and this another one. No,
I'm not involved the two games today. I didn't play
either one of.
Speaker 2: Them for the clients. I didn't like either one of them.
Speaker 3: You know, I made a lean to Carolina plus and
in this one, I make a lean to the under
and a lien of the packers, and it's a lean.
You know, I'm not getting the betting window, not at
these numbers, you know, not close to these numbers. You
already missed it down the total, you know, the total
was as high as forty six and a half. We
talked about it, and we did an emergency betting alert
for this total, and it was on the way down.
Speaker 4: I think we might have we did due to the weather.
Speaker 1: You say, you know, listen, I joked about not being
a meteorologist and saying like, hey, listen, we're still you know,
five sixty is away from this. But we did see
that this total was going to be coming down. I apologize, guys.
I do not have my Odds Logic screen open on
my laptop right now, Teddy, what is the current total
on this one?
Speaker 3: Well, luckily for you, Kel, I have my Odds Logic
and I basically always have my ods Logic live on
screen open and if you guys want a free trial,
odds Logic dot com backslash Teddy free seven day access
for Ozzy.
Speaker 2: It's a good product. I use it every day, Kelly
use it every day?
Speaker 1: Well, I use it every day. But here's the problem.
I let my boyfriend use it on his laptop, so
it keeps slogging me out because I guarantee he's sitting
on the porch right now using my Odds Logic screen.
If you want to know the truth and why I
don't have it open because it keeps kicking me out
because I let him use my login. You know, maybe
I know the owner and I could ask for a
secondary login. But thank you, Teddy.
Speaker 2: For it's a good plot.
Speaker 3: That's the whole point to check it out. Oztic dot
com backslash Teddy free seven day trial. If you want
to try it out, I encourage you. It helps, It
really does help. Right now, I'm seeing pretty much minus
one and a half for green Bay everywhere. Some shops
have juice, DK's minus one fifteen vandueals minus one eighteen
right now offshore some of the global markets, we're looking
at one minus one twelve, some of the influential books
in the global marketplace. So we got green Bay minus
one and a half with juice and tolls pretty much
down to forty four and a half everywhere. It's still
a forty five at Circa. Everywhere else is still sitting
at four everywhere else right now down to forty four
and a half off the opener of forty six and
a half. The weather in Chicago tonight is not supposed
to be ridiculous.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: Sometimes you get a January night in Chicago and it's
really not enjoyable.
Speaker 2: It's sold your field nothing.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be bigly enjoyable around freezing, but
it's not gonna be minus twelve with with you know,
crazy wings whipping and all of that. That being said,
it's a January night at Chicago our doors for three hours,
three and a half hours, it'll get nippy.
Speaker 1: I'm sure that's a great word. By the way, nippy.
Haven't heard that one in a while. Teddy Covers. All right,
tell us what you've got going on over at wager
talk dot com. And then I'm gonna make you break
down the other game tomorrow that you're not involved in.
Speaker 3: Sure, sure, happy to do it. I've breaked down all
this stuff, o kel So. I have not yet posted
hoops today. I had to jump in the shower and
get on air. But the hoops that we posted shortly
after we get off air, I'll have plays in NBA
and college basketball for today that we'll be posted. You'd
like to have him up by nine am. Time might
be by nine thirty, but they'll be up in the
next hour. So we're involved in college We're not involved
in college football anymore. All those games are done now
we have new college football games to think about. We
cashed last night with Indiana. That was fun and easy.
We're involved with three plays in the NFL. I did
a five percent big ticket. We pulled it down for
sale because the line has moved too much.
Speaker 2: That happens.
Speaker 3: I have no problem getting it out early and making
sure that my clients get the best of the number,
and we've done that in the NFL. But there's still
two plays up on my page for sale, Chargers, Patriots
and Texans Steelers for Monday nights. So I'm happy to
give you my take, and I'm leaning hard on the
Jags Bills. I just had I haven't pulled the trigger.
Speaker 1: Why was like, I love the Jags. I gave it
out of my best bet on bat on it. I said,
here is why I broke down the whole thing. I said,
I don't trust this Bills team. I think that they've
kind of regressed a little bit. Outside of Josh Allen,
of course, and you know, John Murray kind of put
this little seat in my head that said, if McDermott
loses this game, he's going to get fired. And I
thought that's a really interesting, you know, just a situation.
It doesn't it doesn't hold any weight, but I thought
that was interesting. And then he proceeds to tell me, oh,
but the Jags are the biggest public play of the week,
and I thought, I was like, come on, Murray, like,
that's not what I wanted to hear. When I said
how much I love the Jags, I was hoping that
I could tease the Jags and one side of the
Green Bay game together. And then, of course, now Jags
is down to one and probably even headed towards a
pick them here shortly. So I'm kind of curious to
see what you think about this bill's Jags game. I've
already got Jags plus one and a half in bocket, so.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna tease it for just a second. But so
someone asked me this the other day. I don't know
if I was talking about with you or so, but
would you rather have a public play to faid, the
number one public play to fade or the number one
wise guy play to bet? And I'm like, I'll always
take the number one public play to fade more than
the white you know.
Speaker 2: Because the wise guys wanted.
Speaker 3: They're very comfortable betting fifty games, you know, or you know,
betting twenty games and going eleven and nine, you know,
boom done and getting the best of the number that
you didn't necessarily get. The public plays to fade, the
number one public played. If you fade that every week,
you're gonna catch more than you don't. I would think
more than you your you know, fifty five percent of
the wise guy's dragon hit. So fade the public for
me is better than the back then the bet on
the wise guys. When it comes to bills, Jacks. From
a side standpoint, I'm not touching this game, not a chance.
This game is gonna come. I'll tell you flat out,
whoever has the ball last.
Speaker 2: Is going to win.
Speaker 3: You know, we got two good offenses that are gonna
move the football, and I would I would expect. And
when we think about the Jacksonville down twenty seven nothing
to the Chargers in their last playoff game, rallying back.
Speaker 2: If you watch that game, you'll never forget it.
Speaker 1: Here's the problem. I didn't. They were down twenty seven nothing.
I went to bed. I was pissed off. I had Jacksonville.
I woke up the next one. I was like, this
is that's broken. Something's wrong. They won that football game.
And so I kind of wonder if I used all
my jags good juju.
Speaker 4: On that one.
Speaker 3: But that's that speaks to the character of Trevor Lawrence
a company. You know, Daxvill's been a character team.
Speaker 2: This year.
Speaker 3: They take, they taken punches and punches back and punch back.
Buffalo has had an extraordinary amount of posting the success
all right, They've won multiple playoff games every year in
the McDermot era. Firing McDermott again when you think about
what where this builds franchise was when McDermott got there,
which is twenty five years of futility, you know, I
mean embarrassing futility. You know, Fluty Flakes was the last
good thing that happened in Buffalo before we got there,
which is you know, turn of the century stuff, two thousand,
two thousand and two, whenever, you know. I mean, they've
been very bad for a very long time. And McDermott
changed that from day one essentially, so I got nottier
respect for him as a head coach. That being said,
you know, there there are issues for Buffalo in terms
of you know, we questioned the defense. We questioned the
I certainly questioned the run defense. I questioned their ability
to you know, we questioned the receiving corps a little
bit for the Bills. What I do believe in in
this game is these two quarterbacks. All right, Trevor Lawrence
is playing the best football of his career. It's not close,
and he's got weapons to throw to. Josh Allen is
playing football again at an MVP type level. I mean,
we get immune to it, we get bored with it
because he's been playing at this level for five or
six years.
Speaker 2: But Josh Allen is playing an MVP.
Speaker 3: When you have these two good offenses, you expect points
in January, man, and you do. This is the highest
total on the board. For good reason. I think we
see a shootout and I lean over. Okay, I haven't
bet at the number, because again, what I'm seeing signs
this could come down. You know, some of the some
of the leading indicator books are juiced under on this
ball game. So I don't think it will. I mean,
fifty one and a half a reasonable number. It's not
a number that you're you know, I have to wait
for the fifty one. It's not three and a half.
Speaker 2: Two and a half. Yeah, you know, hey, let's wait
for the three. See what we get it. But the
lead here is definitely builds jacks under.
Speaker 3: I think that game's gonna be a lot of fun,
and I think the last team with the football is likely,
you know, to win the game.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, thank you to Teddy Covers for filling
in earlier than expected on today's show. At Teddy Underscore
Covers over there on X you guys can catch Teddy
and I am back here on the way you're talking
YouTube channel, Monday morning, eleven a m Eastern eight am
Pacific opening line report for the divisional round of the
NFL Playoffs. Anything you'd like to leave our.
Speaker 4: Audience with, Teddy, Thanks for watching, guys.
Speaker 3: We appreciate all your support, genuinely, the likes, the comments
that fall us and make all the difference for our algorithms.
Speaker 2: So thank you for your support and not good luck today.
Speaker 1: Cheers all right, cheers Teddy to that you got my
This is not a viva by the way, guys, I
know that's what Chris Thurston just texted me and asked
me if I had a viva at eleven thirty in
the morning. A guy who likes to drink a little
bit of viva every once in a while. Brian Power,
Brian Power, what are you doing this morning? I appreciate
you coming on, Brian Power. You guys can catch him
on Wager Talk. You guys can check him out now
on the Picks and Partlays and Wager Talking YouTube channel.
The morning. Wager's back, which is really exciting. Let everybody
know where they can catch that VP. And we're gonna
get into some of this college basketball. As I pull
up art to Caesar's very lengthy text because last week
college basketball is really good in I'm.
Speaker 4: Very interesting to hear what Art has to say. I
was in joy chat with Arts sometimes with Joe and Press.
But yeah, the Morning Wager, let's not bury the lead, Kelly,
it is back on the Picks and Parlays YouTube channel.
Mark and I. I actually just posted a clip from
yesterday's show. As a matter of fact, as we were
talking about Indiana organ yesterday, I said, look, man, if
you like Indiana win and cover this game, just bet
them to win the national championship because there gonna be
a big favorite in that game. Guess what Mark made
the bet? Ron The area goes, oh, that sounds very
appealing to me.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make that bet right now. He did.
Speaker 4: And guess what. Indiana's about a three to one favorite
to beat Miami next Monday. So fun times always on
Morning Wager with Mark and I. Check it out again
on the Picks and Parlays YouTube channel. Mark and I
have a special deal. I'm sure we'll be talking about
that sometime in the next fifteen minutes.
Speaker 1: And for the record comment section, actually I did brush
and curl my hair this morning. I want you guys
to know that sure.
Speaker 4: After you this morning?
Speaker 1: Man, I know, right, I don't know what I did.
I get it. My setup's not the greatest. I'm sitting
here on my dad's barcel's turning my back. We had
tech issues. I mean, come on, I'm for you guys.
Can I get some love? Of course you can tell
me talk. I brush my hair. Look at it, Look
at those fresh curls.
Speaker 4: May I haven't brushed my hair since thinety six.
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, Brian Power. Let's get into some of
these college basketball games. There is a just plethora of games.
But I know these guys want to talk about a
couple of the ones that are tipping off here early
and that, hey, you know, really solid teams. Let's talk
about that University of Florida team that I bet last
year to win the national championship. They lose to Miszoo,
and I thought, all right, this team is not what
they once were. Maybe Missouri is a little bit better
than I thought. Dennis Allen's been doing a great job
with that team. Now Florida's back at home here. They're
going to take on the Tennessee Volunteers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, interesting, Florida.
Speaker 2: You know Kelly.
Speaker 4: One of the spots both you and I look at
each and every year is the old unranked home team
favored over top twenty five opponents. Florida second time this
week they're in that role now. What was interesting and
Mark talk and I talked about the sun the morning
wage early speak. That trend started zero three this year
with NC State coming up short twice lo and behold.
The first instance though, of a team getting home and
covering as an unranked home favorite against the top twenty
five team was Florida on Tuesday as a nine and
a half point favorite. I think they even closed. Did
they close?
Speaker 2: Iron? Did they close?
Speaker 4: And somebody remind me against Georgia and for about a
half things were not looking good for Florida, but then
you had the ejection and Florida just blew them out
of the water in the second half. I don't want
to play the side in this game. Actually, I have
a lot of respect for Tennessee. I would look at
the under in this Florida Tennessee matchup. What is the key?
It's not a client play, but it's how I would
look to Playscap and guys, if you're watching this game,
what you want to be focused in on because this
will determine the result of the game. I can guarantee
that is offensive rebounding. These are the number one and
number two teams in the country. Kelly in offensive rebounding
the under. Okay, for the under to come home, we
can't have a lot of second chance points. But here's
the good news. You look at the Florida side. Okay,
they're number five in the country at canceling out offensive rebounds.
So what I'm hoping for here and what anyone who's
bet the under. I know a lot of people who've
bet the under in this game. I haven't had a
chance to peruse what Art is saying here on the screen,
but it'd be interested to know if if he liked that.
I don't looks like he actually thinks the other way.
It looks like some people bet the over.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I would say, I'm gonna just beg to differ there.
I like the under in this game, and Merril does.
Speaker 1: Every single week Art gives out these games and he says, no, no, no, up.
The sharps are wrong. No it up. Art's wrong. It's
actually kind of become a new little uh little stitch.
Speaker 4: So that's what I like Meryl, and I like Art
to Caesar, So guess what, can't we all be friends.
I'll just say this. If there's a lot of second
chance points in this game, then yes, it's gonna be
tough for the underget. But I think relative to what
we normally see from this Tennessee and this Florida team,
there will not be as many second chance points in
this game. So under is what I like it that one.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's keep on moving right along. This Nebraska team. Uh,
you know, k State was in a rock fight with
this team. They're in Kansas City, and I thought, all right,
either K State's not as good, Nebraska's not as good.
I can't figure out the dynamics. And since the Nebraska
has just been on fire, this has been a really
great program. Obviously, we know Illinois historically has always been
a really great basketball program. Talk about Brad Underwood's team
here back at home, laying a little chalk.
Speaker 4: So with Nebraska, here here's the deal. You know, I
always my ratings are pretty much in line with the
Ken Palm ratings. You know, it's not like Ken Palm's
like a pancea and it's like you know we should,
you know, walk up the mountain with a chiseledon stone.
But here's the deal with when when you talk about
Nebraska the Eight People versus my power ratings, Nebraska still
sticks out like a sore thumb, Kelly. They're number ten
in the country in the Eight People. What I barely
have them still as a top twenty five team despite
the undefeated starts, the longest win streak in the country
for Nebraska, they've been shooting the lights out. They proved
me wrong. I was on Ohio State or in the week.
I know everybody was on Ohio State or early in
the week, and you know, as that game got ready
to tip off, I got a little nervous. But either're
facing Indiana. I guess the word, Kelly, in Bloomington, Indiana
right now. The key word that they believe, at least
on the athletic side in Bloomington is experience. We talk
about the football team obviously it's a very experienced group,
not necessarily together, but they bring in a lot of
experienced transfers. The basketball team here in Indian in Bloomington,
most experienced team in the country. So it's at home.
This team usually plays better at home Nebraska. I believe
this is their third true road game, So I yeah,
I like Indiana. I think a lot of people expect
that from me in this game. I think Nebraska suffers
its first loss of the season this afternoon in Bloomington, India.
I agree with the site. Here's the thing you had
Teddy on in the opening segment, right, and you guys
are talking about power ratings. You know you can't just
blindly and you know this, Kelly can't just blindly take
these unranked home teams if you think it's a bad number.
I didn't take Floria against Georgia because I thought that
number was kind of absurd.
Speaker 2: I guess you know.
Speaker 4: It was back to the drawing board with me in
this case. I believe I agree with the number. Indiana
absolutely should be favored by a couple of buckets over Nebraska,
and I think I like them.
Speaker 2: We get it, dumb Hoo's.
Speaker 1: Yours all right, guys, Sorry about that misbeak. Indiana not Illinois.
Can you tell that I have my list of our
diseasar up and I'm trying to get it you're doing?
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I always say.
Speaker 1: Tom Tomas producing today, not Louis. Usually i'd be screaming
at Louie to get me off the screen today. I
just have no shame. You guys have already criticized my hair.
We already started late, Like, I just don't care. So
I'll be on my phone betting these games. It doesn't matter.
I'm here for you guys, and it doesn't matter if
I do my hair or not.
Speaker 4: Damn it, it's unbelievable you're getting you know, I think
I'm getting the haircut after the show. Much you should
like to thank you. Yeah, I knew that I was.
I've been waiting for that Slack message again everybody three months.
I'll take you other other than your computer's infected with malware.
I think the most the scariest thing to look at
your computer screen is kiv is typing. That is that
is the scariest thing. You guys have slack for work.
Speaker 1: You you know when I say, oh, no, yes, all
right here, let's talk about some of these interesting sides
from are at the Westgate super Book. I don't want
to talk about any of these waring games. If I did,
I would have Adam trigger on. So I want to
talk about the more exciting games here, he said, with
Sharp's lay twelve and a half here with Duke. Let's
talk about this Duke game because it's getting bet up
and I don't know if I already missed the boat
and I'm debating, right, So when when a line goes
from twelve and a half to fourteen because the team
is named Duke, that makes me a little nervous, like
the game's gonna land thirteen fourteen and guess who wins
and then guess who subsequently loses. So I like to
check some of these things and see if the markets
moved a little too much for me.
Speaker 4: Brian Power, Yeah, so the thing with Duke, you gotta
let's go back, you know, college basketball. For me, you know,
we don't want to be victims of recency bias at all,
but you always want to go back, and you know,
these teams are so up and down and so maddeningly
inconsistent for the most part, I mean, except for you know,
maybe the real league, and Duke's an elite team.
Speaker 2: For that matter.
Speaker 4: But go back to what happened earlier the week against Louisville, Kelly,
they were losing in that game. It did not look
good in the first half. Louisville could not Louisville. Mark
and I talked about that game, and Louisville is a
team that attempts the most three pointers in the country,
and they could not miss from behind the arc in
that first step. That is why Duke fell behind in
that game. It took a lot of effort to come
back to beat the Cardinals, a high profile game. I
think Louisville has an argument as the second best team
in the ACC. I know that there's someone in the chat,
at least one person in particularly probably thinks it's Virginia.
But that's a different story for a different day. I
think because it took so much for Duke. I know
Duke's home. I know SMU is a lot better at
home than they are on the road. I actually played
SMU's team total under I gave this out for free
on the morning wager when they suffered. Now they were
guess what a top twenty five team that lost at
unranked Clemson the other night. You may have covered due
to that last second three, but I would not lay
it with Duke. I know that's like kind of a
gutless thing to say. I'm not gonna rush to back
said us spot, but there's no I mean, you know me,
I'm not laying this with Duke.
Speaker 1: No, and that's fine, but that's the reality with some
of these sharp plays. The sharp guys are betting these numbers.
They have I think fifteen games or something they bet today.
I dropped them in the chat. We'll go over some
more of them here in just a minute. I'm kind
of curious about some of these totals you mentioned. Let's
stay on that Duke game, because the Duke under is
on this list as well, so I kind of wanted
to see what your thoughts were on the total in
regards to these two under one fifty nine is what
they played.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Duke, they don't play exceptionally fast, and they're
a top ten defensive team in the country. Sm you
their strength is on the offensive side. Button Again, they're
on the road, so you're gonna expect a little bit
less offense from them, you know. Thinking from a game
script perspective, how does s you know, Mark and I
talk about this all the time. How does SMU cover
the spread of this game. Let's just think about how
the game plays out in our heads. Okay, SMU will
probably cover this spread if it's a low scoring game, Okay,
and then similarly, do how do they cover? Well, they're
going to cover if they hold SMU's offense and check.
So I think there is multiple pathways to an under
in this game. As a matter of fact, the kind
of just talk it out here on the air with you, Kelly,
that's probably the bet to make in this game would
be the under.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 4: I just think there's there's more paths to get there.
Uh So, Yeah, I like that. I would agree with
the Sharps on that one.
Speaker 1: And I agree with the Sharps here on the Tennessee,
Florida over one fifty and a half, I believe right
now it is currently yeah, still one fifteen and a half.
So nobody else has actually played anything significant there. Let's
kind of go through some more games, Brian Power, tell
me what you've got going on for sale over at
wager Talk, and then we'll talk about some of the
games that narrowly missed your card today.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, so I'm playing both NFL playoff games today, including
a five percent max bet.
Speaker 2: Very rare we do the.
Speaker 4: Five percent max that's had. My last five percent play
was on New Year's Day that was Indiana against Alabama
and that was not sure if you caught that game
kill it was very easy winner. Quite frankly, I wish
I would have just laid it with Indiana again last night.
I'm going to talk about that a little bit because
I know this people want me to discuss that. But
first five percent play in the NFL since December twentieth, Yeah,
since that we had the Eagles and Commanders over that day,
which was a winner. We got a little lucky late,
but that's okay, we'll take it. And look, we're ten
and four with all NFL five percent plays going back
to November of twenty twenty three, so that's only fourteen
times guys we released a five percent play in the
NFL going back over two years. We're hitting over seventy
percent of them. And I really like this one that
you have to And I'm playing both, I said, I
do plays. I'm playing both games. So you can check
it out right now. WT dot Buzz slash VP up
over fifty units Kelly betting Football since November first.
Speaker 2: Very proud of that.
Speaker 4: I wish I would have been up closer to sixty.
But yours truly, Kelly did something stupid yesterday. What did
I do stupid. I bet Oregon under its team total.
I'm the only person yesterday who was rooting for Indiana
that didn't win somehow because it was twenty one and
a half. And guess what they did. They for some
reason kicked the extra point at the end instead of
going for two. I knew it was going to happen.
I was on the phone with Zeno. I said, this
is horrible. I wish if it was an afternoon game
and there was something else. The way that game got
out of hand, I told him. I was like, if
this was the middle of the afternoon and I had
the same bet on this game, I would just walk
away and do something else. I'm not going to sit
here and torch. I'm not learning anything by watching this game.
Or Indiana's kicking their ass. So that sucked. I did
at least mitigate the damage somewhat with the Sacramento Kings
in the first half, and that was a very good
bet because they got their ass kicked in the second half.
Speaker 1: So yeah, So if you watch Kelleen Murray, you know
John Murray has their season win total under so his
his group, they're very bad. It is no Kings because
they're rooting against the Kings, and I laughed. I said,
but every once in a while in the first half
they really show like they want to play, and then
they just don't. And he goes, that's exactly why we
bet their season win total under. So congratulations to you.
If you like the Kings going forward. King's first half
is probably the only way you should be looking at it.
Speaker 4: If they're a team that's just gonna roll over and
quit right if it gets out of hand, they're not
we like, yes, we like to say if they're not
covered early, they're not covering late.
Speaker 2: So uh yeah.
Speaker 4: So anyway, we got the two plays up in the NFL,
and I also have my two plays up for Sunday
as well already. Uh you know, trying to early bird
gets the worm, so to speak, Kelly, I've got so
I've got four plays for NFL Wild Card weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's hit on a couple more of
these college basketball games from the chat before we get
you out of here.
Speaker 4: If you have a lead in the NBA, if we
want to answer that question, I would take, go ahead,
give me your lean in the NBA. I would take
Indiana plus the points they just snapped a long losing streak.
No one's you know, it's like the old anti swagger
spot or swagger spot, if you will, Kelly. They call it.
A bad team wins a game. The public says, all, well,
they're not gonna win again. But I look at it
and say, hey, I think they've got maybe a little
bit of that swagger in them here. And the good
news is, if you want to bet Indiana tonight, this
is just a lean right now. It's not officially on
my cart. You only need them to stay within seven points.
Miami an interesting spot. They had a game canceled against Chicago.
You don't see that often. There was a little a
condensation issue on the court, so it kind of throws
a fly in the ointment. But I would take Indiana
plus the points. Indiana way better at home than they
are on the road as well. And by the way,
I like seeing the Pacers suffer after what their fans
had to say last year.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, now here we go. Look what I did.
Look what social media did. You basically put them into
the new Bears fans. Okay, I'm gonna go through this
list of college I've already put it in the chat.
I'll put it in the chat again from Art to Casar.
That was sharp. Let's go through these totals first, just
because they're boring and because they're totals. Fordam over one forty,
Tennessee over one fifty and a half, Florida State over
one fifty nine, Louisville under one fifty, Grand Canyon under
one forty one and a half, Duke under one fifty,
Arizona State under one seventy. But let's talk about some
of these interesting sides here. Linda Wood minus six. That
one has come up with you, Lovenood, Okay, let's talk
about it.
Speaker 4: I know, I know you love lindenwe I was being facetious,
but I was like, I know you love Lindenwood. What
are your favorite teams?
Speaker 1: I know I couldn't name a single player on the teams.
This is the thing that is so great about college basketball.
You just pick the conferences you want to follow, and
then you just do those in depth. For me, it's big,
it's big twelve, big ten sec. I don't need to follow.
I couldn't even tell you what conference Lindawood is in.
Isn't that sad?
Speaker 4: It is a little bit Lindenwood. I'm sure I'm sure
all our Lindenwood fans are weeping right now.
Speaker 1: Ten minus one and a half, Duke minus twelve and
a half, air Force plus eighteen, Missouri State minus one
and a half. VP. If you have any agreements here
or opposites.
Speaker 4: Feel free react.
Speaker 2: I'll react.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't want a bet air Force.
Speaker 1: You don't they're that bad.
Speaker 4: Huh, Well, they're not a good team. They don't let
people in six three or taller in the Air Force.
Why would you bet a basketball team.
Speaker 2: From air Force?
Speaker 1: Okay?
Speaker 2: Great?
Speaker 1: Is that true?
Speaker 4: Yes, that's why I'm not in the air Force.
Speaker 1: You're taller than six three six three on the dot, Yeah,
I would have lost that bet. I think that's because
I'm always in high heels whenever I'm around you. I
would not have guessed you were six foot three. Are
U TAP plus four and a half, East Illinois plus
Eastern Illinois plus four TCDU plus seven and a half.
Let's talk some big twelve basketball there, Brian Power.
Speaker 4: Okay, let's see.
Speaker 1: Let's hear your opinions on this one. I'm still betting
these They have come down from seven and a half
down to seven versus Arizona, a team that just smacked
my k State Wildcat.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Arizona, Yeah, it's kind of like right on market. Look,
Arizona eventually is gonna slip up. And if look, if
they slip up, where's it gonna be. Where do we
think it's gonna be, Kelly, It's gonna be on the road. Eh,
they don't slip up here. Just looking at the upcoming schedule,
I mean you're you're talking to the end of the
month when they have to travel to Provo Phace PYU
that they might slip up. I might take a slot.
I could be convinced to take a small nibble here
on the dog. It wouldn't play it large, but if
it would be dogg or pass for me in that situation,
is the.
Speaker 1: Dog worth and money line? Sprinkler? Are we just taking
the current number of plus seven?
Speaker 4: You want to get real frisky? Uh No, I don't.
I don't see TCU winning the game. I would just
take the.
Speaker 1: Points so tc to cover Arizona to win. All right,
Let's keep going through some of these games real quick
before we get out of here. Arkansas State minus eleven
and a half, Sam Houston at plus two and a half,
Long Beach State minus f New Mexico State minus three
and a half, Loyal and Marymount plus twelve and Utah
plus fourteen and a half.
Speaker 4: Utah is an interesting one there. They're obviously facing BYU. Yeah,
afore mentioned BYU again, I could be convinced they're geting.
I mean they're get That's a decent number of points
you're getting in a rivalry matchup. I would be inclined
to take the points there in a rivalry game with
the home dog, for sure, So I agree with.
Speaker 1: That and power anything else you'd like to leave our
audience with before we get you out of here.
Speaker 4: Just one more time, five percent max bet oh oh,
I need to mention this. Uh, the buy one, get
one free if you go to Picks and Parlays. Guys,
I'm still on Wager TOXI my nice shirt that I wore,
But if you go to Picks and Parlays right now,
you can pick up a buy one, get one free special.
Obviously the Morning Wagers back, Kelly mentioned that at the
outset of the segment, you can get all of my
plays for the next three days, including that five percent
play for today in the NFL Wild Card Round, plus
all of Mark Zeno's plays for the next three days
sixty nine dollars both of us, every single sport sixty
nine dollars. You can go to my page, go to
his page. He gets very personal about it.
Speaker 2: He likes you. You go to his page.
Speaker 4: I prefer you go to mine, but that's okay. No
matter who you go to. No matter who you go to,
you can get that buy one, get one special take advantage. Now.
Of course, you can still, like I said, find me
at wager Talk as well for NFL Wildcard plays currently
locked and loaded and we'll see if we had some
hoops here in the next hour as well. I do
have to get a haircut Kelly before.
Speaker 1: No, you got to get your hoops plays posted first,
then you can get a haircut. Thank you guys for
hanging out with us here on this wild Card Saturday weekend.
Good Luck to you, Brian Power, good luck to Teddy Covers,
and good luck to everybody who has hung out with
us for the last forty five minutes and bared through
my unbrushed hair and our tech issues. Love you guys
every single weekend. Will be back next weekend for the
divisional round. We'll be back tomorrow Aaron Epstein. We'll see
what we can get Yanni's tech issues figured out. Marco
D'Angelo will be there as well as Andrew McGinnis to
talk some NFL props. Hope you guys have a wonderful
and profitable Saturday, and we'll see you next week.