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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for

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<v Speaker 1>February twentieth, twenty twenty six. We've got a weird one today.

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<v Speaker 1>Miners are sprinting while the market limps. Let's get into it.

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<v Speaker 1>So here's the headline that caught my eye this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin ETF outflows just crossed four billion dollars over five weeks. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>quick pause, shout out to our sponsor. Okay, so here's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening. Four billion. That's not a hiccup, that's a trend.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet bitcoin mining difficulty just spiked fifteen percent, the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest jump since twenty twenty one. Hash rate bounced back

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<v Speaker 1>to one zeta hash per second. So you've got Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street pulling money out and miners plugging machines back in

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<v Speaker 1>faster than they have in five years. Bitcoins sitting around

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<v Speaker 1>sixty eight thousand, kind of stuck in no man's land.

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<v Speaker 1>The people trading paper are scared, the people running the

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<v Speaker 1>actual infrastructure they're not. Now where does that leave the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the market? Honestly pretty quiet. Bitcoin's basically flat

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<v Speaker 1>on the day, hovering near sixty eight k ethereums under

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand, still underperforming, still struggling to find a bid.

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<v Speaker 1>Solana's around eighty three bucks, up a couple percent, but

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<v Speaker 1>nothing to write home about. Total market cap is about

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<v Speaker 1>two point four trillion. Bitcoin dominance is at fifty six

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent, which tells you where the conviction is.

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<v Speaker 1>It's in bitcoin and basically nowhere else. The narrative scoreboard

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<v Speaker 1>is ugly too. AI tokens are down almost twenty percent

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<v Speaker 1>on the week, dp pen down over twenty, Social Fi

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<v Speaker 1>same story, the only green spots, prediction markets up a

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<v Speaker 1>few percent, and meme coins barely positive. When memes are

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<v Speaker 1>your best performing sector, that tells you something about the mood.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, so what's actually driving all this? Let me

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<v Speaker 1>walk through the big stories first. The ETF bleed. This

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<v Speaker 1>is the one that matters most right now. Nearly four

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars has walked out of US spot bitcoin ETFs

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<v Speaker 1>over five weeks. Another one hundred and sixty six million

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<v Speaker 1>left yesterday alone, and according to Bloomberg Futures, exposure on

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<v Speaker 1>the CME has dropped by about two thirds from its

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<v Speaker 1>late twenty twenty four peak. Coinbase prices are consistently trading

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<v Speaker 1>at a discount to binance. That's a clear signal of

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<v Speaker 1>sustained American selling. Here's the thing most people miss about

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<v Speaker 1>ETF outflows. It's not just about the money leaving, it's

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<v Speaker 1>about the narrative leaving. The whole bull case for twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five was this wall of institutional money coming in

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<v Speaker 1>through ETFs. When that wall starts crumbling, you don't just

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<v Speaker 1>lose dollars, you lose the story that attracts the next

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<v Speaker 1>round of dollars. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has broken below

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<v Speaker 1>the seventy nine K true market mean and is now

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<v Speaker 1>stuck in a defense of range. The only major support

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<v Speaker 1>they flag is around fifty five K at the realized price.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a wide gap to be dangling over now. Blackrock

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<v Speaker 1>did note that only zero point two percent of their

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin ETF saw redemptions during the crash, which suggests the

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<v Speaker 1>advisor and long term allocator money is sticky, but the

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<v Speaker 1>hedge fund and tactical money that's what's bleeding out. The

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<v Speaker 1>watch here is simple. If outflows slow to under fifty

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<v Speaker 1>million a day for three straight sessions, the healthy reset

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<v Speaker 1>thesis wins. If we get another five hundred million plus

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<v Speaker 1>single day outflow, the structural weakness camp gets a lot

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<v Speaker 1>louder okay. Second story, so, and this one is genuinely fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>That mining difficulty spike fifteen percent, the largest single increase

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<v Speaker 1>since twenty twenty one, and it happened while bitcoin's price

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<v Speaker 1>is limping around sixty eight k. Why would miners be

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<v Speaker 1>plugging in machines at this pace when margins are compressed

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<v Speaker 1>Because miners don't trade the next week, they trade the

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<v Speaker 1>next cycle. Think of it like a restaurant hiring extra

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<v Speaker 1>cooks on a slow Tuesday because they know Fridays coming.

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<v Speaker 1>A big chunk of US hash rate went offline during

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<v Speaker 1>the winter storm, and the snapback was violent, But the

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<v Speaker 1>signal underneath is clear. The people closest to Bitcoin's infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>are not bearish. If hash rate holds above one zeta

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<v Speaker 1>hash for the next two weeks despite these type margins,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a deep conviction signal from the supply side. Third,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is the one that's been nagging at me.

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<v Speaker 1>The options market. Bitcoin bounced above sixty eight thousand, but

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<v Speaker 1>the options traders didn't get the memo. Put Skew is

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<v Speaker 1>still elevated. People are still paying up for downside protection,

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<v Speaker 1>like someone who just survived a car crash and flinches

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<v Speaker 1>at every yellow light. Price recovery sentiment didn't. That's the tell.

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<v Speaker 1>And when hedging demand stays high during a rally, it

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<v Speaker 1>usually means one of two things. Either the rally has

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<v Speaker 1>legs and all that protection becomes fuel for a short squeeze,

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<v Speaker 1>or the hedger's are right and we're just visiting higher

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<v Speaker 1>prices before heading back down. Funding rates flipped positive, which

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<v Speaker 1>means longs are paying again. Leverage is creeping back in

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<v Speaker 1>on the upside. Leverage plus skepticism is a volatile cocktail.

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<v Speaker 1>If put skew normalizes within five days while Bitcoin holds

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<v Speaker 1>above sixty seven K, the panic was overdone. If skew

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<v Speaker 1>stays elevated and price rolls below sixty six k, the

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<v Speaker 1>options market was right to stay scared. Fourth regulation, This one,

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<v Speaker 1>uh okay. This one is interesting because you've got two

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<v Speaker 1>people who should agree on crypto regulation telling completely different stories.

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<v Speaker 1>Ripple's Brad garling House says the Clarity Act has a

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<v Speaker 1>ninety percent chance of passing by April. Custodia's Caitlin Long

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<v Speaker 1>says Trump family crypto ties are complicating the whole thing

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<v Speaker 1>and giving Senate fence sitters an excuse to slow walk it.

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<v Speaker 1>The Clarity Act would finally draw a line between what's

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<v Speaker 1>a security and what's a commodity. That's the single most

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<v Speaker 1>important unanswered question in US crypto. But a ninety percent

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<v Speaker 1>probability from a CEO whose company directly benefits from the

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<v Speaker 1>bill passing. Take that with a salt mine, not a grain.

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<v Speaker 1>The real signal is whether Senate Banking actually schedules a vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk is cheap floor time isn't fifth Black Rock bought

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<v Speaker 1>uniswap tokens, and look crypto Twitter lost its mind over this,

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<v Speaker 1>but zoom out the bigger stories. The rotation happening underneath

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<v Speaker 1>capital is leaving DeFi protocols and flowing into tokenized real

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<v Speaker 1>world assets. That's not capitulation, that's maturation. When the world's

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<v Speaker 1>largest asset manager buys governance tokens for a decentralized exchange,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not because they want to vote on fee switches.

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<v Speaker 1>It's because they see DeFi infrastructure as a distribution channel

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<v Speaker 1>for tokenized everything. The RWA narrative is eating DEFIS lunch.

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<v Speaker 1>That sector's market cap is over fifty billion even after

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<v Speaker 1>a ten percent weekly pullback. Quick hits before I move

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<v Speaker 1>on as Tech. The privacy focused Ethereum Layer two token

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<v Speaker 1>surged over eighty percent after dual South Korean exchange listings.

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<v Speaker 1>Thin liquidity plus Korean exchange premium equals fireworks. A Tennessee

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<v Speaker 1>judge blocked state enforcement against Calshi prediction markets, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a big win for prediction market legality. Parsek, the DeFi

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<v Speaker 1>and NFT analytics platform shut down. Another casualty of dried

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<v Speaker 1>up trading volumes. Bitdeer stock dropped seventeen percent after announcing

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<v Speaker 1>a three hundred million dollar convertible note offering, raising debt

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<v Speaker 1>at multi year low Hash prices. Is either desperate or

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<v Speaker 1>contrarian genius, and the White House is floating the idea

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<v Speaker 1>of letting banks offer yield on stable coins, which, if

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<v Speaker 1>that becomes policy, it's the bridge between traditional finance deposits.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, before we get into the risks, quick word

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<v Speaker 1>from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk about what

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<v Speaker 1>to watch for and on chain dollars. So what should

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<v Speaker 1>you actually be worried about right now? Three things on

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<v Speaker 1>my radar. First, that options panic premium I mentioned it's

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<v Speaker 1>not going away. What the people who pay the most

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<v Speaker 1>for information options traders don't trust this rally. When hedging

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<v Speaker 1>demand stays high in to a bounce, the next leg

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<v Speaker 1>down tends to be sharper because everyone's already positioned for it. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is the structural one. We're about to enter

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<v Speaker 1>week six of ETF outflows. Five weeks nearly four billion

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<v Speaker 1>out the door. ETF flows were the demand engine for

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five rally. If

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<v Speaker 1>that engine stalls for a sixth week, the market loses

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<v Speaker 1>its marginal buyer. Bitcoin's stuck below the seventy nine k

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<v Speaker 1>true market mean, and the only support below is around

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five k. That's a wide, uncomfortable gap. Third, the

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<v Speaker 1>wild card, Gold is ripping on geopolitical fear. Bitcoin is

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<v Speaker 1>not US. Iran tensions are pushing gold higher, and crypto

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<v Speaker 1>is just not sitting there. Every cycle, crypto bulls promise

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin will be the safe haven asset every geopolitical shock.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold wins that argument. Prediction markets back this up. Only

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<v Speaker 1>about twenty five percent of betters think bitcoin outperforms silver

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<v Speaker 1>this month. The digital gold narrative is taking another credibility

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<v Speaker 1>hit in real time, and looking ahead, i'm p's three

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<v Speaker 1>things to watch over the next week. One, any movement

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<v Speaker 1>on the Clarity Act from Senate Banking if they schedule

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<v Speaker 1>a markup session this month. That's the most significant US

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<v Speaker 1>crypto regulatory catalyst of twenty twenty six. Two. Whether bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>hash rate holds above one zeta hash. If it does

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<v Speaker 1>despite compressed margins, miners are telling you something important about

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<v Speaker 1>where they think price is going. And three ETF flows

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<v Speaker 1>every single day. A single day of two hundred million

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<v Speaker 1>plus in inflows would break the five week pattern and

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<v Speaker 1>could trigger a short squeeze given all that elevated put

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<v Speaker 1>positioning on the flip side. Week six of outflow would

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<v Speaker 1>be the longest streak since these ETFs launched. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>line in the sand. That's the picture for today. If

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<v Speaker 1>you got something out of this, send it to a

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<v Speaker 1>friend who's into crypto. That's the best way to support

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<v Speaker 1>what we're doing here. This is educational content, not investment advice.

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<v Speaker 1>Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.