Speaker 1: Welcome.
Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, Christmas Eve, Eve, December the twenty third, the
best betting show ever, and hey, early Christmas gift. The
PRES is not here, but you get me instead. Steve
Merrill filled in for the PRES. You got Joe Vernay.
Look at that hoppy holidays festivus to the rest of us,
Arthur de Caesar. Because the PRES is not here, no
aerin of grievances. We will still have feats of strength, though,
because all three of us are pretty powerful. Let's get
right to it though. We will have a lot of
content by the way here on wager Talk TV throughout
the holidays, free play videos for all the games, but
many live shows the next two days. So enjoy these
while you can get them, and a right let's get
right too. We got three Bowl games today on Tuesday,
December the twenty third, As is the case with a
lot of these minor Bowl games, uncertainty on opt outs,
coaching changes, all the other delightful things we get in December,
but a lot of action. Three ESPN games. What are
you seeing here on your side of the counter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to touch on the two later Bowl
games and then the Hawaii Bowl as well. Steve Western
Kentucky Southern Miss. We took Sharp money on Solar Mess
at plus five plus four, got to pick and then
even even got Southern Miss minus one at one point,
so Southern Miss was a slight favorite that was short lived.
We're back to pick on the game. We opened that
total at fifty six, got to his high as sixty
and a half now creeped back down to forty nine
and a half. That was early Sharp money on the
over and then late Sharp money on the over, so
they're kind of maybe trying to find a little bit
of a middle there. UNLV obviously the home team, there
will be a little bit of interest on UNLV Hawaii
open UNLV five got to his high as seven. Sharps
actually took Ohio at seven, so we're now at six
and a half on the game. And then the Sharp
spent the over sixty four and a half now up
to sixty six and a half. The Hawaii Bowl cal
and Hawaii Sharp's took Hawaii plus two. WHI is now
a one point home favorite basically because that is their
home bowl, and we moved with the market on the total.
It wasn't necessarily Sharp or public action here, but it
was fifty four and a half on an opener. We've
now seen under money come in, pushing us to fifty
two and a half.
Speaker 1: I know it's yeah, I do.
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna ask Art before obviously the Sugar Bowl
and everything else comes up next week. Did you see
anybody after the results of the quarterfinals.
Speaker 1: Did you see.
Speaker 4: Anybody run into the window to back one team or
the other. Have you seen any interest for the bigger
picture games?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 3: I mean, I will say this is the favorite so
far the public, especially the three big favors. I'll take
Oregon and Texas Tech out of it, but we've already
seen the three team money line parlays on Ohio State, Indiana,
and Georgia, and we know out of those three games,
we'll probably need an upset out of one of them
because that is going to be a very popular money
line parlay moving forward here, even a three legger where
maybe they add an NFL game, whatever the case may be.
So we'll be fighting against those three big favorites, whereas
obviously Oregon Texas tack you know, one point one and
a half point game that will probably see pretty good
two way action, but it's probably a little too early
to kind of see where really the public or the
sharps lean for us in these playoff games.
Speaker 2: Talking to Arthur de Caesar, of course from the Westgates
super Book in Las Vegas and Nevada, I should have
told some people that we might have some new viewers
art but definitely getting the other side of the counter here.
And you mentioned the NFL tried to delay talking about
these Thursday games as long as possible because there are
some ugly games. Who better Roger de Guell getting a
glump of coal? Who could deserve them more right on
Christmas Day? As of now, we could have all three
underdogs with third string quarterbacks on Christmas. Netflix and Amazon
Prime getting what they paid for with one hundreds of
millions of dollars for these streaming games. But the reality
is are going to be heavily bet people will find
a way to play them. What have you seen so
far on these three Christmas Day Thursday games?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they certainly will. And it's gonna have a
feel of the playoff games. We're gonna need one of
these dogs outright, because I listen, these are tough games.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: Cowboys in Washington six and a half now seven for
US total of fifty one. The public has creeped Dallas
up to a seven point favorite. Detroit has been six,
and we really haven't budged off that, and the public
is on Detroit as well. There is sharp action on
this game. On the under, we were forty six now
forty four and a half, and then Denver as big
as a thirteen point favorite. Here on the road total
is creeped down. With the market thirty seven and a
half now thirty six and having a seven to six
and thirteen point favorites, we're gonna just need They're gonna
be moneyline parlays all day on this. It's just it's
not gonna end. They might even just say Dallas and
Detroit and maybe leave Denver out of it. Two teamers, teasers,
all that type of stuff. So we're gonna need one
of these dogs to win out right on Christmas Day.
I don't think there's any question.
Speaker 1: Good luck with that, art, Yeah, good luck with that.
I don't even think anything that you can't even teaser
protect that. Guys are just gonna be playing ten point d.
Speaker 4: They're gonna do whatever they gotta do to try to
get attion on those games there.
Speaker 2: Joe, I gotta ask gart real quick. I mean, we've
all been doing this a long time. I did my
videos yesterday are for these three games. And something I
thought about last night as I was just laying down
and relaxing. I didn't mention in the video, so I
want to mention it now. Kansas City was a four
point road favorite like a month ago. They're now a
thirteen point home dog.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I know home field isn't worth three each way like
it used to be, but Denver and Casey are two
of the stronger home field so let's just say two
each way. That's a seventeen point plus four. It's a
twenty one point difference in one month basically because one
player is out. I mean, I know the Chiefs have
been terrible. I know they shouldn't have been minus four
a month ago. Maybe they'd be plus four with Mahomes
now at Denver, But have you ever seen anything like
that in your life? Basically, one player is worth twenty
one point? And I'm not saying I like the Chiefs.
I mean I probably that'd be the only way I
play it, probably at this point. But how insane is that?
Speaker 1: It is?
Speaker 3: Endlessen no one is worth twenty one points. And as
great as my home is, you know, as great as
Josh Allen is, you know, all these great quarterbacks, it
is just such a First of all, no one knows
who this chief quarterback is. It's not Gardner Minshew. We
have history with him, we just know. Like we were
sitting in the wrisk room on Sunday and when Minshew
got hurt and they brought this kid and we were like,
who is this Michael olawagandhy like what like. We were
like making up names and we were joking around like, well,
no one had ever heard of this guy. So I mean,
clearly it's an overreaction, I guess. And I'm with you, Steve.
I think the only way I could play it is
Kansas City. But it's just such a tough game.
Speaker 4: Finally, the market is out on Kansas City art. I
think it's official. We were wondering when it was gonna happen.
Speaker 1: I believe.
Speaker 4: Also, the biggest spread that Kansas City has had an arrowhead.
Speaker 1: I believe they said in fifty years it's just.
Speaker 4: Their harrowhead was supposed to be one of these big
home field advantages, but not anymore.
Speaker 1: When it comes.
Speaker 2: Different won two games by double digits all season. They
see your thirteen wins, they've only won two by double digits.
Speaker 4: I think this season it's crazy. Yeah, unbelievable. It's it's
gonna be gros Art. It's a good luck there, but
you do at least have an opportunity. If you're going
to play at parlay, you might as well do our
parlay of the day coming up here at Art because
we're gonna focus just on the games here today and Merril,
you are the guest tost so guess what you.
Speaker 1: Get to throw out any game you want.
Speaker 4: Today to start off our three team parlay here, which
are and I have been pretty good all season long.
I don't have to tell you the pres has been
total Well you know exactly what happens there.
Speaker 2: Borrow the Frisco Ball Not in San Francisco. This is Frisco,
Texas where they used to play the one double A
championship for several years, the FCS Championship. And you know,
Vien Ohio to good off defensive teams, two questionable defensive teams.
The Ohio head coach is out. He pulled a Michigan
with an affair with the undergrad, so a lot of
uncertainty there. I don't look for much defense in this game,
and his art will tell you, being a UNLV local,
there lots of offense no defense with them. You know,
these minor bowl games have a tendency to be high scoring.
This is as big of a total as we're going
to see this bowl season. It opened sixty two and
a half. It's up to sixty six and a half. But,
as I'd love to say, the highest totals go over,
and I think this is a textbook example of that.
The only way I would play the Frisco Bowl tonight
is up and over sixty six and a half.
Speaker 1: Art, what are you thinking? Yeah, I love it.
Speaker 3: Steve's right, UNV scores and they play zero defense. I'm
going to the NHL Big Slate. I'm taking the Bruins
minus one fifteen short home favorite against Montreal.
Speaker 4: Oh I kind of like that one too as well.
All Right, so then I'll go to the I'll go
to the NBA. I'll take the eight points with the Knicks.
I got no problem with that. I'll do it. I've
been pretty decent. I will do not trust the Timberwolves
to finish off people in games, especially at home. So
Nicks plus eight for me, and that seems to be
a pretty darn good parlay of the day, Meryl, what
do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, what am I missing there?
In that next game? I'm still digging into the NBA.
But that's a big number. I'm considering they've got Jalen
Brunton is ruled out, right, yeah, and is ruled out?
Speaker 1: So yeah, I figured.
Speaker 2: Figured there were some injuries there because that looked like
a pretty big number for the NBA Cup champs. It's
kind of like the Kansas City Chiefs. Let's do a
Nicks Chiefs parlay.
Speaker 4: Yeah, right, exactly, Yeah, Yeah, I'm willing to. I'm willing
to take on the depth here of the Knicks. It's
good to go there. Don't trust Minnesota at all. Art
get out of here. A big day for you, man.
Enjoy your holiday. We'll be back. You'll be back Friday. Right,
we'll do the show getting everyone ready for the weekend.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, listen, Happy holidays, boys, and yeah, Friday will be
a big show, man. We'll break down all the Saturday
Bowl games. Yeah, we'll try to touch us in. I
guess really as many NFL as we can maybe even
all of them. So yeah, Friday will be a nice
lot of information.
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, Artur sees that we're gonna get to
see him on Friday.
Speaker 1: Double R one l.
Speaker 4: Steve Merrill at his time for our fade or not
to fade segment here. And I think it's pretty easy,
certainly in the NFL, because we got a handful of
bubble teams thanks to Indies defense crap in the bed
last night. Looks like a whole lot of teams clinched
their playoff spots, Buffalo being one of them there has
already gone ahead and punched their ticket now, so that
leaves a couple of teams on the outside maybe looking in.
Speaker 1: And let's start with this indie team here.
Speaker 4: Now they're not mathematically dead, but it certainly hasn't been
Philip Rivers problem as to why they have gone zero
to two in these last couple of games.
Speaker 1: Do we look to back them?
Speaker 4: Do you think this team rallies around them or are
we looking just to fade Indie moving forward here?
Speaker 2: No, I mean Indy was a fade for me going
into last night on Monday. But Philip Rivers played well.
He averaged about four yards of pass a week ago
in Seattle, and actually played much better in the loss
last night, even though it was a bigger loss. Averaged
almost eight yards per pass a ninety seven QB rating.
He looked serviceable, and I think the Colts have a
chance now because of that, not a team I would
write off. I believe there's only one playoff spot up
for grabs between these two. The two teams have a
chance of still grabbing one of the playoff spots. Well,
I guess there's you know, there's seven teams now. Houston
is in the seventh spot. Indianapolis and Baltimore the only
other two teams I could get that spot right now,
And I do feel like it's an uphill battle because
there are two wins behind Houston. Not gonna happen, But
I think the Colts will still play hard, and I
thought Philip Rivers looked serviceable and against a Jacksonville team
coming off that big Denver win, might not be a
terrible spot for the Colts this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, listen, it's a division rivalry coming up, right,
It'll be kitchen sake and feels like kind of game
they're gonna lay it all out there one way or
the other. It feels like, I don't know, Houston, is
they what they started? Oh and free? And then they've
brattled off all of these wins and some of them
are a bit head scratching, but there is no doubt
they are gonna have to get it done in a big,
big way and need some help if they're going to advance.
And then you switch it and you go to a
couple of other teams here much like I don't know,
let's talk about Carolina. Carolina holds their destiny in their
own hands, which I guess is where you want to.
Speaker 1: Be at this point.
Speaker 4: I still I'm still listening to a lot of guys
telling me they're not buying Carolina.
Speaker 1: They win today, this.
Speaker 4: Week coming up, it really might it matter what happens
in that final game against Tampa because Carolina, I'm looking
the back Tampa.
Speaker 1: Is it too late for him? Steve at this.
Speaker 2: Point, yeah, I'm not a big believer in Carolina, But
then again, I don't like Tampa any better. It's a
terror division and they're going to win it by default.
You remember the Bucks won this division a few years ago.
I think with a losing record that one season, they
get a home game still with the playoff format. Seattle
not a great spot for the Seahawks this week, traveling
across the country after that emotional, high scoring, incredible Thursday
night win against the Rams, but it was some extra
time off, so we'll see how that This is a
one o'clock Eastern start, that's ten am Seahawk time. So yeah,
Carolina's probably gonna be live again this week, and then
it comes down to that game at Tampa next week.
And by the way, Houston plays at the Chargers this
week and then they play the Colts next week.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: So the schedule makers didn't get it right for Christmas Thursday,
but they got it right for next week. Perhaps is
some really good playoff elimination games on deck.
Speaker 1: There are going to be some huge ones here.
Speaker 4: I think Tampa is just at this point it doesn't
look like Baker Mayfield's healthy at all, and I think
that's going to be a big problem for them. It
looks like that shoulders a big, big issue for them.
But another big issue is not mathematically eliminated. But are
we really backing the Ravens in any shape or form here?
Meryll moving forward? I can't watch them throw up all
over themselves anymore. But the good news is they're taking
on a Green Bay team that might also have a
third string quarterback having to go here. So I don't know,
is that maybe short run we looked to back the Ravens.
They ain't dead until I guess somebody sticks a fork
in a mere or can you just not trust them
at this point?
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson has officially listed as questionable as of Tuesday
with the back injury, so I don't know if he's
gonna go. I can't imagine he's fully healthy. He looked
really pained up at halftime there when he left the
game on Sunday night. The one thing the Ravens have
been doing better recently, he's playing better defense, and the announcers
were talking about that. Then of course the floodgates open.
We had a team total play for my free play
video on the Patriots over twenty three and a half.
I had a best bet for my clients on the
game over, so I was happy with that result. And
one thing I pointed out last week was that the
Ravens have not stepped up well against good teams. All
those recent wins and better defensive performances have come against
some of the weaker teams in the NFL. Believer in
the Ravens Huntley is serviceable at quarterback. It'll be a test, though,
because the Packers have not been good offensively and what
a terrible loss. One of the best bets of the year,
Joe was an end game on the Bears. When that
game went to overtime, you just knew Green Bay had
no chance of coming back after blowing a sixteen to
six lead with a few minutes to go. Packers, I believe,
have to win out and Detroit has to lose out
and the Lions likely are not losing at Minnesota. So
by the time this game takes place on Sunday, Packers
will likely be eliminated from the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Kind of crazy and listened.
Speaker 4: I mean, a lot of teams got that injury bug
this year and it's just it's it's kind of set
them off the rails here in a big, big way.
But now then there's Detroit. So Detroit screwed the pooch there,
played with its food and Pittsburgh caught them. Are we
believing Detroit here?
Speaker 1: Moving forward? It feels like Dan Campbell's not a guy.
Nobody's quitting.
Speaker 4: It doesn't feel like it doesn't mean they're a good
play because I still feel like the public is going
to want back Detroit as best they can, especially coming
up against the.
Speaker 1: Bears, I think on the fourth of January.
Speaker 4: But I don't it feels like Detroit might be still
a little old valued in the market.
Speaker 1: What do you think correct?
Speaker 2: But then there's a lot of uncertainty with Minnesota right now,
Brosmer likely going to be the starter the University of Minnesota.
Rookie will get to start maybe in Minnesota and in
NFL game. And that's why we see this line go
from three and a half look ahead last week to
now six even some six and a half's out there
starting to show total big drop as aren't mentioned earlier,
from forty eight and a half down to forty four
and a half. And that's because McCarthy is out, and
you know he wasn't that good this season anyway. He
had started to play a little bit better. But the
big question is which Detroit team shows up. Is the
team that got the number one seed last year, had
that bad loss to the Commanders with five turnovers in
the playoffs, and it's kind of lingered all season this year.
You know, it's amazing, Joe, when we see teams with
bad losses in the playoffs, like the Chiefs last year,
or the Lions or the Commanders in the title game,
how they kind of regress the file in a year.
With that said, it'd be Detroit or passed. For me,
it's going to probably be a public square side. Yeah,
but I don't trust the Vikings, and I think Detroit
does step up this Thursday.
Speaker 4: You know, Art and I have talked all year long
here on the show Stave about for whatever reason, especially
early on in the season, the Sharps loved the Saints and.
Speaker 1: They were looking to back them everywhere.
Speaker 4: Again, there was always a lot of valid because nobody
the public didn't expect anything from the Saints. But here
they are now rattling off, you know, a bunch of wins.
Tyler Schuck actually looks like he's getting it, believe it
or not. Here with this team are they are you
continuing to back them?
Speaker 1: I mean, what have they got coming up Tennessee?
Speaker 4: I mean it is New Orleans, a you know, a
team that you don't want to look to fade here
the rest of the way.
Speaker 2: So last week, one of the games that just missed
done in my Fade the Public video was the Saints.
Speaker 1: How crazy is that?
Speaker 2: The Saints were almost a public play last week and
luckily it didn't make the video because they covered. And
I always liked to fade the public and what do
you want anything to do the Jets? I think that
was more people just fading the Jets. But it was
weird to me because, like you said, for weeks in
and weeks out, the Saints have been a play against
team from the public, and you look at what they've done.
They did lose what was it eight seven or eight
straight games there in October through mid November, but they
covered half of them. And even now I think they're
just two and eight their last ten, but they've gone
five and two ats their last seven, so they've been
better as an underdog recently than is a favorite. And Tennessee,
what do we make of that win last week against
Kansas City? I mean, that's how bad the Chiefs have become.
They held them to nine points. Tennessee had only won
two other games all season. Not in a hurry to
late points with either one of these teams. But I
do think New Orleans is probably the better squad. By
the way, the look ahead a week ago or this summer,
the look ahead was going to be Titans minus three
and a half, and then just a week ago it
was about two Saints. Now it's two and a half.
We'll see where it closes. If it hits that key
number of three by Sunday.
Speaker 4: Yeah, kind of crazy like the Saints getting it rolling
here towards the end of the season, and it feels like,
I don't know, I mean Borrow with all these cryptic,
you know, messages and all these things. You can't it
feels like Cincinnati and especially Joe Burrow, if no other reason,
they're tired of lose it. So are they a team
where looking the back here? Because it felt like Miami
got an awful lot of love this week in the.
Speaker 1: Marketplace against them.
Speaker 4: But I don't know, did that look like a Bengals
team that had no interest in winning?
Speaker 2: I had a strong best bet on Cincinnati for my
clients last week at waiter talk dot com. So I'm
definitely a believer that the Bengals are still playing hard
and that was one of our top plays last week.
Never in doubt forty five to twenty one win, and
one of the reasons because they're coming off the shutout.
I like the back teams off a shut In fact,
the week before, Joe I had a best bet on
the Ravens in a twenty four to nothing win. So
I've had a good feel for this Cincinnati team. I
don't think the spot's as good this week, obviously, as
that was kind of their focused game last week. But yeah,
back at home, Arizona's nothing special should a high scoring game.
Neither team has anything to play for. Cardinals off six
seven straight losses and they failed to cover six of
the last seven. Talk about a team to maybe fate.
Arizona's quietly been the biggest money burner in the NFL
the last couple months. This line was five and a
half a week ago. Now it's seven, even seven and
a half starting to show. So there's probably not a
lot of value left at this point with Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: No they're not, but borrow now, if you're tired of losing,
you're gonna have to show up here in these last
couple of games. That's that's for sure. So there you
got a lot of teams on the bubble. You got
some teams with nothing to play for, but look like
they're a little more interested in finishing off the season
strong than maybe mailing it in. Unfortunately, I don't see
any of those games happening on Christmas. But that's you
got to take the good with the bad, there, Meryl.
All right, before we get to some early NFL bets here,
we'll put the clock on. We'll go over to the
NBA games here tonight, some college basketball games, and then
we'll take a look ahead to any Bowl game that
might peat your interest. You're gonna love this. It is
time for a little business here Maryland. Who doesn't love
a good picture of Saturday night fever pres there? And
it's all about what you got rolling over at wager Talk.
Plus a great Christmas twenty five deal coming up here
for clients.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's gonna be a fantastic special, which I believe
goes live midlight for everybody. I mentioned it early in
my videos, so you can get a sneak peek on
a Christmas special by watching my videos. Don't forget I
do every Bowl game free here on wager Talk TV,
including all three games Tuesday, the Hawaii Bow tomorrow, also
those Friday games, all the NFL games Thursday up free
right now. We'll keep in mind when I'm giving you
every game for free, a lot of those are light
TV Leans only. I'm letting you know how I'm looking
at every single game on the board, maybe one percent
of bank. Well, if you play them all, if you
want my official best bets, those are the strong Plays
four percent best bets four hundred percent stronger than the
light Leans, and those are available exclusively at wager talk
dot com. I do have a strong bowld best bet
for one of the Tuesday games up on my page,
along with four to five Advanced Bowl games for the
next couple of weeks. It's another reason to be a
direct client because you get them the minute they're released.
You lock in on the best number and you never
miss out. Also daily free plays on my page. The
last Cut just a bit outside goes up as a
bonus free play, so check it out. Steve Merrill wager
talk dot com and hey get there quicker with shortcut
WT dot buzz slash sm.
Speaker 1: Good stuff there, Meryl.
Speaker 4: Yeah, take advantage of the deals coming up here, guys,
great opportunity to do so. I believe the final one
of the final days here I think that ends at midnight.
The opportunity to buy three get one free, So that's
also a great opportunity. Five percent College Bowl game today
locked loaded up at the page at wager talk dot com,
so you guys can head over there and check that out. Plus,
got a couple of college basketball games and an NBA
game on what is a loaded card coming up at
wager talk dot com. Take advantage of it, guys, as
we looked around out the year. Here on a profitable note.
Meryl a Joe, we buried the lead. I forgot to
mention something very important. Shot five. Yes, he was like,
what are you doing? What are you doing?
Speaker 2: Yes, my goodness, I've been drinking too much Joe for
my my Steve fret.
Speaker 1: Fer I like that very nice, Meryll.
Speaker 4: That is Look at that right there, baby, that is
outstanding right there, very good.
Speaker 2: Look at that comment from one of the videos this morning.
They said, Steve Ferrell or Will Merrilyn, I never, I
don't think you've even thought.
Speaker 1: I never came up with that. That is outstanding? Did
that for decades?
Speaker 4: Outstanding that somebody put that together? That is the chat
room never loses. I gotta love that man. Outstand wills
of crowds, Will Merrill and Steve.
Speaker 1: That's all right, Well, don't worry.
Speaker 2: I don't know how we've I don't know how we've
missed this, no idea, but I promise you.
Speaker 4: That, well, there will be a graphic next time you're
on the show. With that, I can assure you there
will be something ready to row.
Speaker 2: And that's going to be like squirrel you've been. I've
been a lot of extra fifteen minutes of that episode
with press correct.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 4: All right, let's go with the early NFL bets here again.
Three games on Christmas doesn't mean listen, they're not exciting games,
but it doesn't mean that there's not value somewhere to
be had in there. So we'll put two minutes on
the clock Merrill and sixty seconds each talk about a
game coming up this week here that you might have
interest in taking a look at.
Speaker 2: Look, they're three ugly NFL games. Of course, had broken
all three down in my Free Thursday video of the
Prime games this year, by the way, are thirteen and
three for free thirteen and two on Thursdays because I
missed the Friday Prime game on Thanksgiving weekend.
Speaker 1: So let's look at the game.
Speaker 2: Let's put that thirteen and two Thursday prime record on
the line with this ugly game, Kansas City Denver. But
I'll tell you what, the more i've been looking at
it the last couple of days, I'm starting to warm
up more to the Chiefs. And I'm not a big
fan of catching fallen knife.
Speaker 1: You know that.
Speaker 2: But this is such an overreaction. Last week, the look
aheadline was projected to be Denver by five and a half.
Now it's thirteen thirteen and a half. So right there,
Minshee being out is eight points. Minshoe ain't worth eight
points even in his short shorts. The backup I'll a
duke and Laca Lucan whatever is I don't have it
in front of me is it's a no name. We
don't know anything about him, but there's upside. He could
perform well. He actually threw all right last week, almost
seven yards per pass in that backup performance. And the
bottom line is this is a twenty one point adjustment
from a month ago. They were a four point road favorite,
now thirteen point dog factor in a couple points, so
that it's a twenty one point adjustment. I think it's
an overreaction. Broncos have only won twice by double digits
all season. Chiefs have only lost by more than ten
points once all season. I know that was last week.
Kansas City plus thirteen is the only way I would
play on Prime.
Speaker 1: Ooh, I like that?
Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna I'll keep it simple, because exactly
where in the hell are the points coming from in
this Pittsburgh and Cleveland game coming up this week?
Speaker 1: And I have no idea Judkins is out.
Speaker 4: Poor guy snaps his leg in that game against Buffalo,
So there goes the running game for the Browns. And
now Pittsburgh has got players, their star wide receiver players,
by the way, the only wide receiver player. Oh yeah,
he's just gonna take swings to people in the stands
and get and get suspended there. So it feels like
with these two teams who don't like one another, this
feels like a dead under to me. I'm not expecting
a whole lot of points from either. It would only
be an under for me, merrill when it comes to
Pittsburgh and Cleveland this weekend.
Speaker 2: No see, I mean there's certain teams, as you know, Joe,
in the league that are just pure under or overplays
for you, like that Cowboy Commander game Thursday afternoon. Yep,
you know it's a pure it's an overpass and you
don't know who the quarterback's gonna be for Washington, which
makes it dicey. But yeah, the Browns are one of
those teams, like, how can you make a case ever
for the over with the terrible offense and actually a
pretty good defense all season long? And that just smells
like an undergame in December?
Speaker 1: How about this too?
Speaker 4: Now he needs one, Miles Garrett needs one sack right
to set the league single season record. Aaron Rodgers, former
Green Bay Packer quarterback, might be laying down, making it
real easy for him, because.
Speaker 1: We know Aaron ain't gonna be running around and.
Speaker 4: Trying to outrun him, so it'll be interesting to see
if he ends up sacking Aaron Rodgers for the record.
Let's do the same thing with the NBA run down here,
Merrill two minutes. We'll just go over a bunch of
these games tonight, loaded card because once again, we all
know the NBA season doesn't start until Christmas. But in
the meantime, no games tomorrow, ton of games tonight. I'll
start it off here, Meryll, let's talk about the Sixers
taking on the Nets and listen. Brooklyn has gotten a
little bit feisty here over the last couple of weeks.
But the seventy six Ers finally look like they have
Maxi healthy at Edgecomb and Paul George looks like he's
getting back into the swing of things. You don't have
to look any further, guys than what this line is
telling you about how healthy the seventy six Ers are.
Getting nine and a half to eighteen and a half
is a total. I think the Sixers rolling into this
Christmas start of the season on a pretty good note.
I love the Charlotte Hornets, loved them last night getting
nine and a half. They're laying five and a half
here against the Wizards. Question is who the hell is
playing for the Charlotte Hornets here tonight?
Speaker 1: How about the Bulls?
Speaker 4: They go rattle off what nine losses, seven losses, something
along those lines, and now they refuse to lose taking
on the Hawks again at the State Farm Arena. When
are they going to get rid of Trey Young? I
just this team is not good with him. They're a
different team, and it shows the last couple of games
since he's been available. To me, I like the Bulls
keep doing what they're doing, and I'd score a lot
of points, Meryl. That would be a Chicago Bulls team
total up and over for me. And don't mind the
Bucks getting a point or two at the Pacers either tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a huge NBA card tonight on Tuesday. And that,
of course is because there are no games tomorrow on Wednesday,
and that's because we do have five big matchups for
Christmas Thursday. Lines are already available for those games. But
look at the board tonight on two. One move that
jumped out to me was the over move in that
game between New Orleans and Cleveland tonight at seven to
forty Eastern open two thirty seven and a half, it's
up to two forty five now second biggest total on
the board, of course, after that Chicago Atlanta game that's
now up to two fifty three, two fifty three and
a half in a lot of locations. About this New
Orleans Cleveland game, not only should it be a high
scoring game, but the New Orleans Pelicans quietly having a
fantastic season. This is a team that had lo seven
games in a row late November early December and now
have won six games in a row. And I guess
we should have seen it coming because during that extended
losing streak, they still covered five of the final six losses,
and now they've gone to perfect five and oh straight
up in ATS the last five. That means this team
is now a ten and one against the spread their
last eleven games. Are catching nine and a half points
tonight against a Cleveland team that's won in three straight
up oh and six against the spread their last six games,
and of course, with the big Christmas card coming on
board Thursday, Cleveland is going to New York, so they
have a big look ahead. So that'll be a game
very extry to meet tonight to see if the Cavs
get back on track, which you're laying nine and a
half points with a team that's on an OH to
six ATS slide. And then what maybe is the best
game of the night is Oklahoma City against San Antonio.
You know, Joe, you and I a few weeks ago
in Sports Grede we're talking about with the thunder lose
again all season when they were like twenty two and
one at the time, I think, well, they're now twenty
six and three straight up, and this is a team
that has alternated wins and losses their last four games,
also alternated wins and covers wins and losses against the spread.
Not a lot of movements so far in the spread
in this one. By the way, these teams will play
again on Thursday, which is interesting to me, So keep
a close eye on this game tonight, as Oklahoma City's
gone from six and a half to five and a
half total, though from two thirty four and a half
down to two thirty three makes sense because it should
be a playoff atmosphere. Both teams are definitely capable defensively.
And what's strange to me, Joe's the look aheadline for Thursday.
The total is around anywhere from to two thirty three.
It's jumped all around nine and a half, ten and
a half, eleven and a half. Is Oklahoma City at home,
So maybe we'll get a little bit of that playoff
zigzag angle to use on Thursday in the Christmas game,
depending on how tonight's game plays out in San Antonio.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like that one a lot.
Speaker 4: I think there's some very interesting spots in the NBA
card here tonight. Maybe not so much in college basketball, though,
there were a couple of games that stuck out to
me here Merrill, and I'll start with the one coming
up seven o'clock Eastern Times, and that's going to be
Villanova taking on Seaton Hall. Listen, it's a new Villanova team, right,
Kevin Weller comes over from Maryland. He's got these guys
playing a little different style of basketball. But yes, they
love to shoot the three here. Now, the question is
is that when you go to Shaheath Holloway, they are
over its Seaton Hall. His teams like to bully you,
like to make sure that you can't get into paint.
They like them slow things down. They're very long, they're
very athletic. But once again, shockingly, they don't do a
great job of scoring here. And that's the problem. The
question is are we buying Villanova good enough to make
enough threes and to make enough jump shots in order
to get it done. I think styles make fights Maryland.
In this game tonight, it's just not a good style
fight for Seaton Hall. They'd much rather have a team
that's going to try to get inside and.
Speaker 1: Score that way. Villanova's not going to do that.
Speaker 4: They're not gonna get swallowed up by the physicality here
of Seaton Hall. So I do think point point and
a half. I think you can get with Villanova. I
don't mind looking at him in this one here. I'll
take the Cats to Night over the Pirates.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit of money on the over in
that game too, Joe. At seven Eastern night Open one
thirty one, it's up to one thirty four. So we
have seen some sharp money on the over under in
the Villanova's Seaton Hall game. There's yeah, a lot of
daytime games, so I'll look at the other night time
game on the main betting rotation for you. At six
Eastern Harvard and Saint John's a very little movement on
the side in the Saint John's Open twenty five and
a half, it's pretty much twenty five and a half,
So so twenty six is out there. But we have seen
money on the over in this one as well, open
one forty three and a half and now it's up
to one forty seven and a half. And the tempo
is gonna be the key in this game because Saint
John's likes to play fast up tempo. As always under Patino,
Harvard plays slow down half court basketball, and they're gonna
have a tough time. They don't shoot many threes, they
don't get to the free throw line much. So if
you're gonna play the over, the sharp money likes the over,
I'd much rather have the Saint John's team total over instead.
Eighty six and a half is what I'm seeing there.
And oh, by the way, Saint John's coming in off
a loss against Kentucky. I think they'll be extra focused
in this game. And they gave up seventy eight points
in that loss. They're still one of the best defensive
teams in the country. So while the sharp money likes
the over, I would rather just take slow down and
bad offensive Harvard out of the equation and look at
the Saint John's team total up and over eighty six
and a half tonight at six Eastern.
Speaker 1: Love that look there, Steve Yep.
Speaker 4: Not the biggest of cards in college hoops, but a
couple of late night games certainly we're taking a look at.
And of course we do have three bowl games coming
up here a little bit later today. In fact, Merrill,
if I bring a can of Bush's beans to Boca Ratone,
I might actually get to watch that disaster that is
Louisville taking on Toledoll. But if there is a college
football game that we're looking ahead to, I'll start. I'll
take a look here at the Sheridan Hawaii Bowl where
California and Hawaii are to go at it.
Speaker 1: And listen.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's been an amazing year for Chang and
for this Hawaii team. They've done an amazing job. It's
taken a few years to get it going, but they
have absolutely turned it around. Cal got rid of Justin Wilcox.
Obviously they've had a pretty good end to the season,
but it's still a team that has way too many
questions marks not to mention, you're in the back yard
here of the University of Hawaii. To me in Honolulu,
there's only one way I would lock Maryland. That is
Hawaii and a small number against this Cal team, how
about you.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So I did a video for this game and we
posted it last night, and I mentioned the under It
was around fifty two and now it's fifty and a
half in most spots. So maybe my videos show or
moving the market, but my point is fifty one is
a very key number, so there's definitely less value now
for those that watch the video early, it's now down
to fifty and a half, but there's still some fifty
ones floating around there. By the way, there's about a
three to four percent chance this Hawaii ball lands.
Speaker 1: Exactly on fifty one points.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of scores that gets you there, twenty
seven to twenty four, thirty one to twenty forty one
to ten. What's interesting is both teams cannot run the ball.
Col's one of the worst rushing attacks in college football.
Both teams like to throw the ball, both teams defend
the pass.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: That's one of the reasons I like the under, And
normally when you got teams throwing the ball the entire game,
it makes you nervous with the under. But then keep
in mind also both teams have been off for several weeks,
and you know these precision passing attacks sometimes falter a bit.
We saw all those teams with the bye last year
losing the college playoffs versus the teams that had the
game with the week before. So yes, I like the
under in this The sharp money seems to agree. It's
gone from fifty five down to fifty and a half
now it was fifty two yeah, yesterday still would lean under,
but like it more if you can get that key
number of fifty one on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that crazy enough is your only game there
tomorrow on Christmas Eve. And that's Steve Merril is what
they call a rap on the best betting show ever.
So a little something for everyone coming up here over
the next couple of days.
Speaker 1: We'll be back again.
Speaker 4: Tomorrow and then of course on Friday, we'll get you
guys all set up for what should be a great
weekend with art and I believe the pres is getting
dental work done or I don't know, well, who knows.
Maybe that Nova candle kick in should be fun to
watch that show here. But remind the folks Steve what
you got rolling over at wager talk dot com.
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Speaker 1: Check it out.
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com, including a strong best
bet in the Bowl action tonight. Steve merrillwagter Talk dot com,
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Speaker 4: It should be an awful lot of fun. Uh Merrill,
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