Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex here, sitting down with you on July
Speaker 1: twenty third, twenty twenty six. By the time we wrap up,
Speaker 1: you'll see why Pioneer Exchange closing tells us more about
Speaker 1: how crypto actually moves money than it does about today's price.
Speaker 1: Quick thought for your morning, before you check your portfolio,
Speaker 1: ask yourself if your exchange would still be here in
Speaker 1: a decade. We'll walk through the market snapshot, the big news,
Speaker 1: and what to keep an eye on next. That's all
Speaker 1: for now, but first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: so here's what's happening. Bitmex is shutting down eleven years
Speaker 1: after launch, and they've already stopped taking new signups. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: is holding steady around sixty six thousand. The total market
Speaker 1: caps slipped just a bit, and Bitcoin's share of the
Speaker 1: pie eased slightly. Stable Coin supply barely moved over the
Speaker 1: last day, and Layer zero value locked stayed flat. The
Speaker 1: takeaway is liquidity is steady expanding, which means there isn't
Speaker 1: fresh cash coming in to push prices higher right now.
Speaker 1: Options is the strongest narrative today, down a few percent
Speaker 1: over seven days. The strength is concentrated, not broad the
Speaker 1: polymarket question asks if the FED will leave rates unchanged
Speaker 1: after its July twenty twenty six meeting. Right now, the
Speaker 1: yes side trades at about seventy six percent, so markets
Speaker 1: expect no change, but our signal flag the noside as
Speaker 1: the better value because rate cut odds could shift if
Speaker 1: inflation data comes in hot before the meeting. If you
Speaker 1: want alerts like this in real time instead of hearing
Speaker 1: about them after the fact, you can check the link
Speaker 1: in the show notes. Signal subscribers got this read ahead
Speaker 1: of consensus. Tokenmetrics dot Com seven days free bitmex is
Speaker 1: closing its doors permanently on September twenty third, and they've
Speaker 1: already stopped new signups. The exchange that basically invented perpetual
Speaker 1: swaps is walking away after eleven years. Think of it
Speaker 1: like that local diner that invented the breakfast burrito, only
Speaker 1: to close down the idea outlive the place. The real
Speaker 1: impact is that traders have to move their money elsewhere,
Speaker 1: which scatters liquidity across smaller, less reliable venues. Why this
Speaker 1: matters is that we're already in a correction, so losing
Speaker 1: a major spot adds friction When people are already nervous.
Speaker 1: Keep an eye on daily trading volume after September twenty third.
Speaker 1: If binance and okx soak up that flow, they'll just
Speaker 1: get bigger. But if volume shrinks across the board, it
Speaker 1: means risk appetite is actually weaker than the charts are showing.
Speaker 1: Over in Abu Dhabi, Muveidala Capital is jumping into tokenization,
Speaker 1: and coinbase actually took a stake in the fund. Sovereign
Speaker 1: wealth funds move slow, but when they finally touch blockchain rails,
Speaker 1: it's not a gamble, it's a blueprint. The takeaway is
Speaker 1: that this is just crypto plumbing for big institutions, same ownership,
Speaker 1: cheaper settle, and way fewer middlemen. If more government funds
Speaker 1: roll out tokenized treasuries by year end, the idea of
Speaker 1: crypto running the back end of traditional finance suddenly looks
Speaker 1: real if it stays a one off, though it's just
Speaker 1: another press release. Polymarket is fighting back against France's nationwide
Speaker 1: website block prediction. Markets keep running into governments that classify
Speaker 1: them as gambling, and France just flip the switch to
Speaker 1: block access while Polymarket hired lawyers. This is basically the
Speaker 1: same fight decentralized finance had with regulators just with different flags,
Speaker 1: which means if platforms can't actually reach their users on chain,
Speaker 1: betting stays a niche hobby. The big question is whether
Speaker 1: a French court pauses that block within thirty days. If
Speaker 1: they do, other European countries might hesitate to follow suit.
Speaker 1: On Argitrum, the Perpetual exchange AFX trade got drained of
Speaker 1: twenty four million dollars and the hackers actually offered to
Speaker 1: return thirty percent another day, another Layer zero exploit. The
Speaker 1: bridge was the weak link, not the chain itself. It's
Speaker 1: like a bank getting robbed because the back door was
Speaker 1: left wide open. The immediate impact on arbitrump's total value
Speaker 1: locked was under one percent this week, which is small
Speaker 1: but tells a story. If AFX opens withdrawals again within
Speaker 1: forty eight hours with the money back, trust bounces back fast.
Speaker 1: If not, you'll likely see money flowing out of smaller
Speaker 1: perpetual exchanges. Circle just partnered with cacau and Toss Bank
Speaker 1: to build stable coin payment rails in South Korea. When
Speaker 1: the maker of USDC teams up with a messaging app
Speaker 1: that has millions of daily users, stable coins stop being
Speaker 1: just a trader's tool and actually become a default way
Speaker 1: to pay. This is the quiet adoption story behind all
Speaker 1: the noise building the rails before the rallies happen. If
Speaker 1: a live us DC payment feature actually ships in Cacau
Speaker 1: talk by the fourth core, expect copycats across other Asian markets.
Speaker 1: If it stays a press memo, though, the momentum will
Speaker 1: fade all right before we get into the risks, quick
Speaker 1: word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: what to watch for. First, sentiment is fragile. The Fear
Speaker 1: and Greed Index dropped to thirty one, down two points,
Speaker 1: meaning traders are staying cautious even though some indicators look bullish. Second,
Speaker 1: liquidity is steady but not growing. Stable Coin supply barely
Speaker 1: moved in the last twenty four hours, and Layer zero
Speaker 1: value locked is flat, so there's no fresh cash coming
Speaker 1: in to lift the major coins. Third, exchange access is shrinking.
Speaker 1: Bitme's closing forces users to move their money elsewhere, which
Speaker 1: scatters liquidity and adds friction. Finally, the big picture is
Speaker 1: that buyers are being picky because fear is still high
Speaker 1: and liquidity isn't expanding. That only flips if stable coin
Speaker 1: supply jumps and Bitcoin and reclaims around sixty six thousand
Speaker 1: dollars on real volume. First, and Ethereum price checkpoint resolves
Speaker 1: on July twenty fourth, which will show whether Ethereum holds
Speaker 1: a key level while alt coin sentiment stays weak. Second,
Speaker 1: a Bitcoin checkpoint on July twenty seventh signals if Bitcoin
Speaker 1: keeps its support during all the bitmecs closure noise. Third,
Speaker 1: another Bitcoin checkpoint on July twenty eighth tests weekly trend
Speaker 1: strength before the month ends. The main risk here is
Speaker 1: fragile sentiment and steady liquidity, so keep an eye on
Speaker 1: whether Bitcoin holds around sixty four thousand dollars into July
Speaker 1: twenty seventh as bitmex winds down. By the way, if
Speaker 1: you want the full written breakdown, check out our newsletter
Speaker 1: at tokenmetrics dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.