WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:03.640
<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex here, sitting down with you on July

2
00:00:03.759 --> 00:00:07.240
<v Speaker 1>twenty third, twenty twenty six. By the time we wrap up,

3
00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:11.080
<v Speaker 1>you'll see why Pioneer Exchange closing tells us more about

4
00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:14.759
<v Speaker 1>how crypto actually moves money than it does about today's price.

5
00:00:15.000 --> 00:00:18.160
<v Speaker 1>Quick thought for your morning, before you check your portfolio,

6
00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:21.239
<v Speaker 1>ask yourself if your exchange would still be here in

7
00:00:21.280 --> 00:00:25.199
<v Speaker 1>a decade. We'll walk through the market snapshot, the big news,

8
00:00:25.600 --> 00:00:27.839
<v Speaker 1>and what to keep an eye on next. That's all

9
00:00:27.879 --> 00:00:32.159
<v Speaker 1>for now, but first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay,

10
00:00:32.240 --> 00:00:37.600
<v Speaker 1>so here's what's happening. Bitmex is shutting down eleven years

11
00:00:37.679 --> 00:00:43.039
<v Speaker 1>after launch, and they've already stopped taking new signups. Bitcoin

12
00:00:43.119 --> 00:00:46.759
<v Speaker 1>is holding steady around sixty six thousand. The total market

13
00:00:46.799 --> 00:00:49.880
<v Speaker 1>caps slipped just a bit, and Bitcoin's share of the

14
00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:53.600
<v Speaker 1>pie eased slightly. Stable Coin supply barely moved over the

15
00:00:53.679 --> 00:00:57.399
<v Speaker 1>last day, and Layer zero value locked stayed flat. The

16
00:00:57.479 --> 00:01:01.920
<v Speaker 1>takeaway is liquidity is steady expanding, which means there isn't

17
00:01:01.920 --> 00:01:04.599
<v Speaker 1>fresh cash coming in to push prices higher right now.

18
00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:09.400
<v Speaker 1>Options is the strongest narrative today, down a few percent

19
00:01:09.480 --> 00:01:14.760
<v Speaker 1>over seven days. The strength is concentrated, not broad the

20
00:01:14.799 --> 00:01:18.799
<v Speaker 1>polymarket question asks if the FED will leave rates unchanged

21
00:01:18.879 --> 00:01:22.079
<v Speaker 1>after its July twenty twenty six meeting. Right now, the

22
00:01:22.200 --> 00:01:25.480
<v Speaker 1>yes side trades at about seventy six percent, so markets

23
00:01:25.519 --> 00:01:28.920
<v Speaker 1>expect no change, but our signal flag the noside as

24
00:01:28.920 --> 00:01:32.560
<v Speaker 1>the better value because rate cut odds could shift if

25
00:01:32.560 --> 00:01:35.599
<v Speaker 1>inflation data comes in hot before the meeting. If you

26
00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:38.239
<v Speaker 1>want alerts like this in real time instead of hearing

27
00:01:38.239 --> 00:01:40.879
<v Speaker 1>about them after the fact, you can check the link

28
00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:44.359
<v Speaker 1>in the show notes. Signal subscribers got this read ahead

29
00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:51.040
<v Speaker 1>of consensus. Tokenmetrics dot Com seven days free bitmex is

30
00:01:51.079 --> 00:01:54.680
<v Speaker 1>closing its doors permanently on September twenty third, and they've

31
00:01:54.719 --> 00:01:58.799
<v Speaker 1>already stopped new signups. The exchange that basically invented perpetual

32
00:01:58.799 --> 00:02:02.200
<v Speaker 1>swaps is walking away after eleven years. Think of it

33
00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:05.599
<v Speaker 1>like that local diner that invented the breakfast burrito, only

34
00:02:05.640 --> 00:02:10.039
<v Speaker 1>to close down the idea outlive the place. The real

35
00:02:10.080 --> 00:02:12.759
<v Speaker 1>impact is that traders have to move their money elsewhere,

36
00:02:13.080 --> 00:02:17.400
<v Speaker 1>which scatters liquidity across smaller, less reliable venues. Why this

37
00:02:17.560 --> 00:02:20.599
<v Speaker 1>matters is that we're already in a correction, so losing

38
00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:23.919
<v Speaker 1>a major spot adds friction When people are already nervous.

39
00:02:24.520 --> 00:02:27.719
<v Speaker 1>Keep an eye on daily trading volume after September twenty third.

40
00:02:27.879 --> 00:02:31.560
<v Speaker 1>If binance and okx soak up that flow, they'll just

41
00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:35.199
<v Speaker 1>get bigger. But if volume shrinks across the board, it

42
00:02:35.240 --> 00:02:38.240
<v Speaker 1>means risk appetite is actually weaker than the charts are showing.

43
00:02:38.520 --> 00:02:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Over in Abu Dhabi, Muveidala Capital is jumping into tokenization,

44
00:02:43.039 --> 00:02:46.800
<v Speaker 1>and coinbase actually took a stake in the fund. Sovereign

45
00:02:46.879 --> 00:02:50.800
<v Speaker 1>wealth funds move slow, but when they finally touch blockchain rails,

46
00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:55.080
<v Speaker 1>it's not a gamble, it's a blueprint. The takeaway is

47
00:02:55.120 --> 00:02:59.120
<v Speaker 1>that this is just crypto plumbing for big institutions, same ownership,

48
00:02:59.400 --> 00:03:03.639
<v Speaker 1>cheaper settle, and way fewer middlemen. If more government funds

49
00:03:03.719 --> 00:03:06.759
<v Speaker 1>roll out tokenized treasuries by year end, the idea of

50
00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:10.319
<v Speaker 1>crypto running the back end of traditional finance suddenly looks

51
00:03:10.360 --> 00:03:13.080
<v Speaker 1>real if it stays a one off, though it's just

52
00:03:13.159 --> 00:03:18.400
<v Speaker 1>another press release. Polymarket is fighting back against France's nationwide

53
00:03:18.439 --> 00:03:23.520
<v Speaker 1>website block prediction. Markets keep running into governments that classify

54
00:03:23.599 --> 00:03:27.159
<v Speaker 1>them as gambling, and France just flip the switch to

55
00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:31.479
<v Speaker 1>block access while Polymarket hired lawyers. This is basically the

56
00:03:31.520 --> 00:03:36.039
<v Speaker 1>same fight decentralized finance had with regulators just with different flags,

57
00:03:36.439 --> 00:03:40.520
<v Speaker 1>which means if platforms can't actually reach their users on chain,

58
00:03:40.599 --> 00:03:44.080
<v Speaker 1>betting stays a niche hobby. The big question is whether

59
00:03:44.120 --> 00:03:47.759
<v Speaker 1>a French court pauses that block within thirty days. If

60
00:03:47.800 --> 00:03:51.800
<v Speaker 1>they do, other European countries might hesitate to follow suit.

61
00:03:52.240 --> 00:03:56.800
<v Speaker 1>On Argitrum, the Perpetual exchange AFX trade got drained of

62
00:03:56.840 --> 00:04:01.039
<v Speaker 1>twenty four million dollars and the hackers actually offered to

63
00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:06.199
<v Speaker 1>return thirty percent another day, another Layer zero exploit. The

64
00:04:06.199 --> 00:04:09.560
<v Speaker 1>bridge was the weak link, not the chain itself. It's

65
00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:11.800
<v Speaker 1>like a bank getting robbed because the back door was

66
00:04:11.879 --> 00:04:16.120
<v Speaker 1>left wide open. The immediate impact on arbitrump's total value

67
00:04:16.160 --> 00:04:19.480
<v Speaker 1>locked was under one percent this week, which is small

68
00:04:19.560 --> 00:04:23.680
<v Speaker 1>but tells a story. If AFX opens withdrawals again within

69
00:04:23.800 --> 00:04:27.800
<v Speaker 1>forty eight hours with the money back, trust bounces back fast.

70
00:04:28.160 --> 00:04:30.839
<v Speaker 1>If not, you'll likely see money flowing out of smaller

71
00:04:30.879 --> 00:04:35.480
<v Speaker 1>perpetual exchanges. Circle just partnered with cacau and Toss Bank

72
00:04:35.720 --> 00:04:38.680
<v Speaker 1>to build stable coin payment rails in South Korea. When

73
00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:42.000
<v Speaker 1>the maker of USDC teams up with a messaging app

74
00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:45.600
<v Speaker 1>that has millions of daily users, stable coins stop being

75
00:04:45.720 --> 00:04:48.759
<v Speaker 1>just a trader's tool and actually become a default way

76
00:04:48.759 --> 00:04:51.680
<v Speaker 1>to pay. This is the quiet adoption story behind all

77
00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:55.079
<v Speaker 1>the noise building the rails before the rallies happen. If

78
00:04:55.120 --> 00:04:58.879
<v Speaker 1>a live us DC payment feature actually ships in Cacau

79
00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:03.360
<v Speaker 1>talk by the fourth core, expect copycats across other Asian markets.

80
00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:06.600
<v Speaker 1>If it stays a press memo, though, the momentum will

81
00:05:06.639 --> 00:05:09.839
<v Speaker 1>fade all right before we get into the risks, quick

82
00:05:09.879 --> 00:05:13.920
<v Speaker 1>word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk about

83
00:05:13.959 --> 00:05:19.160
<v Speaker 1>what to watch for. First, sentiment is fragile. The Fear

84
00:05:19.199 --> 00:05:22.720
<v Speaker 1>and Greed Index dropped to thirty one, down two points,

85
00:05:23.120 --> 00:05:27.600
<v Speaker 1>meaning traders are staying cautious even though some indicators look bullish. Second,

86
00:05:28.040 --> 00:05:31.800
<v Speaker 1>liquidity is steady but not growing. Stable Coin supply barely

87
00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:34.439
<v Speaker 1>moved in the last twenty four hours, and Layer zero

88
00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:37.600
<v Speaker 1>value locked is flat, so there's no fresh cash coming

89
00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:41.920
<v Speaker 1>in to lift the major coins. Third, exchange access is shrinking.

90
00:05:42.319 --> 00:05:45.959
<v Speaker 1>Bitme's closing forces users to move their money elsewhere, which

91
00:05:45.959 --> 00:05:50.279
<v Speaker 1>scatters liquidity and adds friction. Finally, the big picture is

92
00:05:50.319 --> 00:05:53.959
<v Speaker 1>that buyers are being picky because fear is still high

93
00:05:54.279 --> 00:05:58.079
<v Speaker 1>and liquidity isn't expanding. That only flips if stable coin

94
00:05:58.120 --> 00:06:02.040
<v Speaker 1>supply jumps and Bitcoin and reclaims around sixty six thousand

95
00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:07.680
<v Speaker 1>dollars on real volume. First, and Ethereum price checkpoint resolves

96
00:06:07.720 --> 00:06:11.000
<v Speaker 1>on July twenty fourth, which will show whether Ethereum holds

97
00:06:11.000 --> 00:06:14.720
<v Speaker 1>a key level while alt coin sentiment stays weak. Second,

98
00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:19.120
<v Speaker 1>a Bitcoin checkpoint on July twenty seventh signals if Bitcoin

99
00:06:19.279 --> 00:06:22.680
<v Speaker 1>keeps its support during all the bitmecs closure noise. Third,

100
00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:27.279
<v Speaker 1>another Bitcoin checkpoint on July twenty eighth tests weekly trend

101
00:06:27.279 --> 00:06:30.399
<v Speaker 1>strength before the month ends. The main risk here is

102
00:06:30.519 --> 00:06:33.959
<v Speaker 1>fragile sentiment and steady liquidity, so keep an eye on

103
00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:37.839
<v Speaker 1>whether Bitcoin holds around sixty four thousand dollars into July

104
00:06:38.000 --> 00:06:42.519
<v Speaker 1>twenty seventh as bitmex winds down. By the way, if

105
00:06:42.560 --> 00:06:45.439
<v Speaker 1>you want the full written breakdown, check out our newsletter

106
00:06:45.519 --> 00:06:50.560
<v Speaker 1>at tokenmetrics dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice.

107
00:06:51.040 --> 00:06:54.560
<v Speaker 1>Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.