Speaker 1: Two NHL games for Wednesday, March eleventh, and we are
here on Puck Time to talk about both of them
right here on wager Talk TV.
Speaker 2: I'm Andrew and I've got Brian with.
Speaker 1: Me today, just the two of us to break things down,
go over some games, take any questions. We're gonna just
take a little step back talk conceptually bet on bet
against teams, teams we're looking at to hopefully have a
good last fifteen to twenty games, teams we're looking to
go against towards the end of the season.
Speaker 2: And we'll just talk sports a little bit as well.
Speaker 1: And anything you guys in the chat want to discuss
as well for today.
Speaker 2: But Brian, how are you man? Good to see as always,
It's great to be here.
Speaker 3: And Carmines never looked better.
Speaker 2: His hair is looking great today, actually a.
Speaker 3: Good hair day the show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will have Carmine back tomorrow of course on
the show. But if there's a day to miss, today
is not really too bad of a day to miss,
of course. Washington Capital is Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadians, Ottawa Senators.
The two games that we will break down here for today.
And you know, Brian, I got to tip my cap
to the NHL because they've been doing a pretty good
job since the Olympic breaks returned with kind of spreading out.
Speaker 2: The schedule a bit.
Speaker 1: This is the first day, and it typically happens on
a Monday, a Wednesday, maybe a Friday, where you have
to deal with the two games slate. It happens. But
one thing I always say to people is, and especially
when the NFL is going on is and we can
all be guilty of this, is sometimes you forget about
the NHL on Sunday football, right or certain days where
there's only a couple of games. But this is kind
of a sneaky day where you can actually make some
money in the NHL. Like, even though there's only two games,
you've got two games to break down, two games to
look at here. So Brian, we've got some movement a
little bit in the Ottawa and Montreal game. Taking a
look at this Ottawa team. It's their first game back
at home after their West Coast road trip. The Canadians
played their first game back after their West Coast road trip.
It's kind of funny. One of my good friends, he's
an Ottawa Senators fan, and we always talk about our
teams together, and his team was in the West coast
of America and my team, or sorry, my team was
on the West coast of America. His team was on
the West coast of Canada. So both team's kind of
in a similar situation travel wise, just in different parts
kind of of of the area.
Speaker 2: There.
Speaker 1: So back to back scenario here for the Montreal Canadians.
But as you know, it brings a smile to my face.
The Toronto may beliefs they weren't too much of a
competition despite the low score line.
Speaker 2: It was a pretty dominant win last night for the Habs.
So how do you read this game Ottawa and Montreal tonight?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've started off. I'm looking at the number and
I thought it was inflated back and I looked on
one of the sites I use and It'scott Montaebau against
with Elmark today in Montebeaux. Is one of those guys
that a young guy, but it is a drop off
at a goalie. But I will let you talk about
what you read once I finish here, and we might
be able to find some surprising value here. But I
have these two teams right on the season virtually equal
Montreal's one two of the three. I believe both of
them won in overtime and they and they lost their
game to Ottawa. I was playing really well right now,
Montreal decent, so I could see Ottawa being a slight
favorite here. But we're looking at numbers here. It opened
about one fifty nine catchback one thirty one. I'm seeing
right now you can catch upwards of one seventy right
now with the Montreal Canadians. Now, granted they played yesterday,
but as you mentioned, they played Toronto, and Toronto I
know it's a big rivalry for them, so maybe that's
what they're thinking. But Toronto's not playing well right now.
They didn't have much didn't have to us much effort
in that game. So normally I give anywhere from twenty
five to thirty cents on the team playing in the
back to back I may lessen that in this one,
which would probably put me in Ottawa, maybe in the
one one forty range, and you've got to lay some
places in the one nineties here with Ottawa. That line
is too high. I like Montreal in this game, and
there may be a reason, even a better reason to
play Montreal based on what you've just talked to me
about before we went on today, and if that does happen,
this is a gift number right now for the Canadians.
Speaker 1: Well, Brian, as you mentioned that number skyrocketing upwards, we
had a graphic for you guys, but as the morning
moved forward to the number jumping up and Brian, we
don't like to say it's just oneicular reason.
Speaker 2: Is it the back to back? Is it the defense? Maybe?
Is it?
Speaker 1: You know, Ottawa is playing some good hockey right now.
There's could be a lot of reasons. But as a
Montreal Canadians fan, I'll tell you every media member and
every fan is just it's almost packing the bags for
Samuel Montambau and ready to show him the door. I
have tried to defend this guy on social media. I
have said the most I possibly could. But at the
end of the day, Brian, this guy continues to give
up goals. And the problem with Montembeau I found was
that he was giving up goals at the worst possible times.
It would be with three minutes to go in a period,
you know, when the other team has their goalie polled,
and it would be like from really far away shots
like just not too good. So anyway, before we hopped
on the show today, I saw all the media members
I follow for the Montreal Canadians, they tweeted out that
Jacob Fowler has been called up from the Laval Rocket
to the Montreal Canadians. Now, earlier in the season, I
believe it was before Christmas time or around around Christmas time,
they were doing a three goalie rotation and eventually people said, hey, look,
it's not healthy to do a three goalie rotation because
what happens Brian, of course, is that you've got one
goalie that hasn't played in two weeks. And you know
Dobish who won last night for the Montreal Canadians. He's
got a phenomenal record, but because of that three goalie
system that they have, he actually hasn't even played nearly
as many games as he deserves to have played. So
it's very interesting because I'll tell you, I don't think
that people care as much about goalies these days as
they used to. But I can tell you that I
think general population, they don't like Montebeau. So if they're
seeing Montebau as the projected guy and you know, looking
at you know Jacob Fowler's numbers when he was up
with the Montreal Canadians, they were pretty good, Like I
think that they were serviceable.
Speaker 2: And the thing is for.
Speaker 1: Him is that they didn't give him easy games. They
didn't give him like the easiest games to deal with.
Looking at twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, ten games
played for him, two point six to two goals against average,
he had one shutout, twenty six goals against. Save percentage
was point nine to zero two this year for the
Laval Rocket point nine to one six. So it's it's interesting, Brian,
because they're going through a span right now where they
have four games in six nights, including yesterday, of course,
So off the top of your head, like you know,
obviously I've watched Fowler, I've heard of how great he is.
But would it shock you if all of this news
breaks this morning for them not to play him, you
know what I mean? Like it to me, it's just
one of those things that would be very weird and
it would almost be a distraction. Like sports people always
talk about distractions. It would be a distraction if they
did all of this to not play him, right.
Speaker 3: I agree, I agree. I'm looking at these numbers, and
it's acting as if the public is looking at this
game and they consider Montebeau, Montebeau to be the regular goalie,
regular starter, and they're bringing up a guy from the miners.
And you see this a lot in baseball. Everybody the
first thing you look at, I go, well, the guys
are the miners for a reason. He's not as good.
I think if if he comes to play, this is
this line is going to go down. We're catching upwards
at one seventy in some of these markets right now
on Montreal, and if Montebaul players, you're stuck with the
one seventy. But still I don't think that's a bad
line at all. And if he doesn't play, this line
is going to go down, and you're going you're gonna
get a bargain. So it's not often I look to
blindly play a game, but even with the goalie that
the guest schedule right now, even if he plays, I
think the line's too high. So it's Montreal or nothing
for me. And I think this it wouldn't be a
bad idea just to have a little piece of Montreal
in case they do bring in the other goalie. Because
it's going to be the line won't be this high
if he is announced as a goalie tonight.
Speaker 1: And I know I'm probably getting people just absolutely tired,
Brian of hearing me talk about how competitive the division
has been overall. But I saw this tweet, and whenever
I see a good tweet, I always want to pop
it up and bring it up on the screen.
Speaker 2: Here, let's see if I can grab it. Here we go.
So here's this one, Brian. For US.
Speaker 1: Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, and Columbus have all just won regulation
loss in their last ten games.
Speaker 2: Boston has two.
Speaker 1: This guy says the East is absolutely ridiculous. So I mean,
if you look at this, what's crazy is that if
we take a look right now at the Ottawa Senators
and some of the scores they've played in recently, you know,
two nothing win, seven to four win, four to one win,
tough loss against Edmonton, five to two win against Toronto.
Like this team is playing well, they're suppressing shots, their
offensive chances are good. It's very tough when it comes
to the goalie situation and kind of looking over things.
The one thing I'm going to say about this game
that does worry me is that I prefer to play
the harder team on the front half of the back
to back, because I feel like you can get a
false sense of confidence, Like the Montreal Canadians in the
first period yesterday they look like the Harlem Globetrotters against
the Washington Generals, like they looked like a team that
I have never seen in my whole entire life against
the Toronto maple LEAs. I would have been five years
old the last time Montreal was that much better than
Toronto ban So I think sometimes it can be a
little bit tough for a team, which is why I
saw a couple of people talking about the first period
over and Timothy in here Copek saying over here, I
wouldn't talk anybody off that first period over bet because
as much as I'm talking up Fowler the goals, that situation.
My reasoning for this, Brian, and I agree with your
side on Montreal, but my reason for this is that
I do think they could be caught off guard by Hey, look,
this is this is not Toronto, and I can't believe
we're saying this, but Toronto is one of the worst
teams in the league.
Speaker 3: And not only one of the worst I think they
are the worst right now. If you're looking at playing
and you've talked about teams in our last ten games,
Toronto's got two wins during that time. The next closest
or Tampa Bay with four, Detroit with four, and Florida
with four. So even even the teams that aren't doing
well in the in this division are really good teams.
Uh yeah, this is this is something for myself and
I compare this too similar to the division that my
team plays in, and that's the Pacific where all the
teams other than Anaheim, which is one eight out of ten,
all those teams have had a losing record of last
ten and so I'm looking to fade those. So yeah,
everything in everything in the Eastern Conference is so tight.
And if you look at these two teams on the season,
Montreal is plus fifteen in gold differential, ottawas plus sixteen.
Ottawa at home, it's got a losing record. They're fourteen
to fifteen, where Montreal is seventeen and fifteen on the road.
Granted that's the entire season right now. Otto is playing
really good hockey, but yeah, they've won Toronto or excuse me,
Ottawa was once seven out of last ten. Montreal's one
seven or six out of last ten, So I stinct
the lines too high here from Montreal, and I'd love
to see them make that goalie change. We get a
better number later on and we can brag about the
one seventy or one sixty five we're getting right now.
Speaker 1: Canadians, Hey, maybe there is a perk of us doing
puck time at eleven am Eastern, because we haven't been
able to always find the perks to the early show.
But I guess we're getting in early with the market
because I don't know about you, Brian, but it feels
like sometimes three pm four pm Eastern is the time
that we see the second move, almost like people are
getting off work or whatever, or the announcements are starting
to be made. Because the problem is, I know, for
the Eastern Conference teams right now, pretty much while we're
doing puck time every day, I started getting notifications about
these press conferences starting for each team after their morning skates.
Then you start to find out information. So with our luck,
we'll fin we'll press the red button and finished recording here,
and then we'll find out immediately who the goalie is
for tonight. Somebody asked me yesterday. I believe it was
either Twitter or it might have actually been in the
live chat. They asked me if I bet power play
point props, and I don't have a graphic for you
guys for today, going to mention a few that I
like today on the show, and I said my answer
was I mostly bet them in the playoffs. And I
know that might sound funny because people have this image
Brian that there aren't that many penalties in the playoffs,
and it's been proven to be false. The only thing
that I think people could argue is there probably should
be more in the playoffs because of all the stuff
that happens. But there's actually about the same amount of
penalties in the playoffs as you see in the regular season.
They just get away with a lot more stuff. But
it's pretty interesting. So you look at Nixuzuki to get
one point tonight for the Montreal Canadians, he's minus two eighteen.
I don't want to deal with that number. For him
to get a power play point on the power play
is plus one seventy. The Montreal Canadians currently hold the
sixth best rated power play on the year, and wait
for it, the Ottawa Senators have the thirtieth ranked penalty kill,
So you're getting plus one seventy six best against thirtieth ranked.
It kind of adds up to me, and you know
you're turning a minus two twenty into a plus one seventy.
Now the hope with this is, of course, you're hoping
to get at least two or three power plays. You
probably need a couple of chances to get there, but
I will happily take that. So we'll try and get
it in. Brian, And I telling you, guys, lock in
the number while you can. Withink, the number will bounce
back down, so grab the dog if you can. I'll
be looking at some player props and I do lean
towards that first period over no matter who's in goal,
I think we could see some action early on in
this game. All right, Brian, what a day yesterday in
the sports world overall the World Baseball Classic Team USA,
Oh my goodness, Canada with the win there, we've got
Bam out of Bayou, breaking Kobe Bryant's scoring record.
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1: So it's Wilt, Bam and Kobe in one sentence, but
a lot of free throws. You had some comments on
what you saw yesterday in the world of sports. What
a day it really was?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really was. It was an exciting day. We
get the on the h being here in Vegas to
deal with trading Max Crosby, and all of a sudden,
Baltimore decides to back out of it. That was the
big headline, and all of a sudden, Wait a minute,
the BAM's got thirty one points in the first period.
Wait a minute, bam gets eighty three points in the game.
First thing I looked at was forty five pre throws attempted.
When was the last time somebody in the NBA got
forty five pre throws attempted. Everybody's talking about that, And yes,
they kept him in there and he pad to the stats,
but hey, you know, everybody loves Kobe. It was Kobe's
last game. You'd not telling me that people were taking
weren't taking it easy on Kobe in that game? Come
on now? Uh so, yeah, a lot going on.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 3: I wanted to talk about the World Based Classic and
the way the Japanese fans treated this picture for the opposition.
The entire stadium was filled with Japanese fans, and I
got to really go out. I just love the whole
concept of Japan and what they do. They gave him
a standing ovation after four and two thirds shutout innings,
a game in which he was shutting out their own
home team. He was an electrician, full time electrician, pitching
in that game. They gave him a standing room only.
Can you imagine. I know Canada is a little bit
different than the United States. Can you imagine a United
States game being played here? Doing that to a foreigner
doesn't happen in the United States, which is one of
the reasons why most people around the world hate people
who were Americans. So hats off to Japan, Hats off
to those fans. I wish the United States would learn
a little bit from that and did something to put
a smile on my face. And the way they treated him,
it's great for the sport. It's great for baseball, it's
great for the World Baseball Classic. Enjoyed it, and yesterday
it was a great day of sports. And I know
we're here to talk hockey, but it was a lot
of fun yesterday.
Speaker 1: You have to love that sportsmanship. It's just so great
to see. As you mentioned, Brian, great stuff by you.
It brings a smile to your face. And that's what
those events are all about, like the Olympics or the
World Baseball Classic. I had friends talking to mex to me,
I think an electrician just pitched four shutout innings, like
they're talking about like all this different stuff going on. Yeah,
it's so great to see. And because not everybody is
the Aaron Judge, not everybody is Paul's schemes, right, everybody
might not have this lavish life to go back to
as an absolute superstar. But for these few weeks, these
guys are all the same. You know, you put on
your uniform, you're representing your country. It's great to see.
And yeah, I'll tell you though, Brian, that whole Bam
out of Bayou thing. I would be lying to you
if I told you I watched the whole game, of course,
but I watched probably the final four minutes. It was
pure comedy, Like did you watch much of it?
Speaker 2: Like? No? I did not, like oh man like it was.
Speaker 1: So they were both in bonus, right, So Miami was
fouling Washington so that they would shoot free throws and
then get the ball back. So it was a lot
of like unnatural stuff that would just never happen, but
it was like you had to cheer for it at
the same time. And then when Bam finally got the
ball back, he was doing these weird spin moves and
he threw the ball up and you could see the
referee was like thinking about it, and he's.
Speaker 2: Like, I got a call it.
Speaker 1: I got to call it until he made the call
and then uh. And even though he had so many
free throws, he made practically all of them. Like you
got to give him the credit for the ice in
his veins, that's for sure. So great night, great night overall.
And also I was wrong about my over three and
a half with Colorado. We'd be remissed him not mention
the Nathan McKinnon goaltender interference that went on last night.
Maybe my East Coast bias getting in the way because
I am a fan of McKinnon. But he's going towards
Ingram and then Darnell Nurse sort of collides with.
Speaker 2: Him and pushes him more into Ingram.
Speaker 1: But either way, McKinnon hard hit into a goalie, which
is never a good thing. They review it as if
it's going to be either a five minute major penalty
or a two minute minor for goalie interference. He gets
the five minute major. At that point, I'm like, oh man,
Colorado's good, but my team total might be a loser
now without McKinnon for the next half of the game.
Speaker 2: And we saw that Evonton one four to three.
Speaker 1: But look, Brian, I'm the first one to tell you
I can appreciate a two to one hockey game. I
gott appreciate a low scoring game. But when ever teams
like that are playing and I got to watch it
on my TV, I always have so much fun because
they are just so fast paced the way they play. Look,
we like low scoring games and defense, but we'd be
lying if we didn't say we'd love goals as well.
Speaker 2: Who doesn't love sharing for goals? Right? So yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Don't care if it's low scoring or highest score. I
just won a good game yesterday. My free play was
on Dallas in the first period no scoring in the
first period. Also said if you wanted to play Vegas,
you're probably off better playing them in the third period,
and of course no scoring in the third period. It
wasn't much use for me to be on the show.
Yesterday's We didn't get any verdicts, but We did win
our four star plays or four percent play for five dollars,
so that was nice. But we've got another hockey game
to talk about today, and both these games are very
important when it comes to playoff positioning. We've got Washington
against Philadelphia, and this is another one that I'm looking
forward to. Some of the quotes coming out of Washington
was they are really focused on this game. They said,
I don't care about yes, the last game we played,
I don't care about when we've got to play a
really good team coming up in Buffalo. This is a
game they need to have now. If you take a
look at the season records, Washington's apploy twelve goals on
the season while Philadelphia's down seventeen. But basically Washington is
only up two points in the playoff position over Philadelphia,
and Philadelphia's got two more games to play, so these
teams are right there with each other. Although nothing has
been decided right now, Lindren's probable for the visitor and
Vadar is probable Philadelphia. I think the backup goalie here,
and we're just talking about the differences between the backups
and the starters. I think the backup goalie and Washington
is one of the bigger ones in the NHL. The
former Gold Knight has been tremendous in goal for Washington.
Now they've got lingering going here. I think that's a
little bit of a negative. We were seeing a current
line basically right now, Washington's a slight favorite in the
one twenty range, something to that effect, which puts me
slightly on Philadelphia in this game. I prefer both dogs
on today's card. Of course, I like the Montreal game
a little bit better than this one. But two teams
right now, they really need a victory, and we'll see
how this one goes. But two games that should be
very physical and very tight. And even though it's just
two games today, you're very good hockey games.
Speaker 1: That's a great point, Brian. Two games, but two games
worth watching, that's for sure. The other one, we did
see some movement for this one. For the most part,
we've seen the number stick Washington minus one twenty two.
The number is relatively the same. Looking at the total,
we have some signs of sixes though, so pick and
choose your spots. Six and a half barely available now,
so make sure you shop around to the best of
your availability.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, if we're looking at opening number purposes, then
you think that, Okay, I think that Philadelphia by the
opening number, the books were respecting them. This opened up
practically a pick and then we've seen just money trickle
in on Washington.
Speaker 2: So when I look at this one, I agree with you, Brian.
Speaker 1: It's kind of like, hey, you know, do we follow
the steam or do we look at what the books
open things up at. Sometimes you want to look at
one side, sometimes you want to look at the other.
And in this scenario, this is one of those ones
where I completely agree with you that sometimes there's very
little difference from one goalie to the next.
Speaker 2: For the Washington Capitals, there's a drop off.
Speaker 1: There is a drop off Logan Thompson and I'll tell
you that the last game the Capitol's played, I was disappointed.
I wasn't on them more, but because I said, this
is going to be a team post Olympic break that
I want to be on. But yeah, the numbers just
aren't good overall. When it comes to Charlie Lindgren, and
the problem with him is that he gives up a
lot of rebounds And I'm just taking a look at it,
like when you look at some of his numbers here,
whereas he eight eighty one save percentage, one shutout, but
the last handful of games, like he's got an expected
goals against the close to four. So that's not good
at all. Philadelphia, though, I worry about their offensive ability.
That's the only thing, Brian. Their offensive output is like
it makes you want to fall asleep watching this team play.
They've got three guys that can score for them.
Speaker 3: You're right, And the power play is the real concern
here for Philadelphia. On the power play, they just are
not very good in that regard. Watch is not having
the count of year that they've had in the past
on the power play. But they still have a Vetchkin
and we've obviously you can't discount him. He can score
on anybody. That's that's my main concern here. If it's
on a five on five game, I think Philadelphia's got
the advantage. But on the on the power play, obviously
Washington has got that advantage here, and both these teams
really need to get the victories. I mean, right now,
Washington's got seventy one points, Philadelphia sixty nine. The Bruins
are currently eighth in the East at seventy eight, so
there's not much more time for them to take a loss.
So the game's going to be very tight, very physical
in this game, and if it does get to be
a lot of power plays, that's got to be an
advantage for Washington.
Speaker 1: I would think, Yeah, I just think that, you know,
looking at this team, you know, some people might argue, Brian.
The other end of the spectrum of what we're saying
here is that, hey, look, maybe there's value on Washington
because it's not as high of a price without Logan
Thompson between the pipes. But sometimes it really is as
simple as going against like I remember, look, you're talking
to a Montreal Canadians fan here. Carry Price used to
play seventy games a year when Carry Price wasn't in
the net. It was an easy bet against the Montreal Canadians,
Like it was. It was a don't overthink it moment
when it came to that, And I think people have
to realize how good Logan Thompson really is. The only
issue is that you've got a kind of a week
your goalie match up here for Washington for Philly. But
I just I don't know if I can get to
the window because of their offensive ability.
Speaker 2: You know, it's just been so anemic.
Speaker 1: A lot of the numbers that I'm looking at, just
scanning through some of the team stats here, you know,
last five games, expected goals four per game two point
one six, power play percentage fifteen point four.
Speaker 2: Like, it's just it's so tough.
Speaker 1: Like I part of me almost says that if you
if you could have gotten a six and a half
or even a six, the under could be the play.
But then again, we're talking about Charlie Lingren. So we'll
see what happens here. Maybe what I'll do is I'll
go ahead and I'll take Philadelphia first period.
Speaker 2: You give a really sharp first period.
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll check out what lin Gren's first period numbers
are be using some great websites I'll make sure to
share with you, Brian, And some of these websites will
actually let you know how goalies do for every period,
which is interesting. So let's see first period for Charlie Lindgren.
Expected goals against point eight eight point eight eight.
Speaker 2: Last three games for him. Wow. First wow.
Speaker 1: Okay, Brian, this is this is kind of crazy here,
last three games for him, in the first period, he's
had an expected goals against of two point one. That
is that is incredible just in the first period alone.
So Philadelphia first period money line. You gave us the
first period yesterday some live research on the show. I
might be taking first period money line for the Philadelphia
Flyers here.
Speaker 3: I will say, if you're looking at the schedule, and
we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks
now up until the end of the season, here, because
of the Olympic break, they have to really jam these
games one after another. Here was you is only playing
their third game in the last eight days. That is
something you rarely see right now. Philadelphia, on the other hand,
are playing their fourth game in seven days, and both
of them have to play tomorrow. Philadelphia it goes to
Minnesota and Washington has to go to Buffalo. So those
are probably losses for both of these teams, which means
this game is much more important. Washington having that extra
rest is definitely an edge here. So even though I
lean with Philadelphia, I'm probably not going to get to
this one because of the Washington rest advantage. But I
still love Montreal in that game. At that price, I
think it's not going to be a play for my clients,
at least at this point. If we get some more
information about who the goalie is later, maybe it will be.
But right now, that's the closest thing I've got to
a play right now is Montreal. Although it's not going
to be play for my clients.
Speaker 2: We'll see if it's a day for the dogs.
Speaker 1: Speaking of dogs, Carmine Bianco has been an absolute dog lately.
Speaker 2: Thirteen and one.
Speaker 1: How's that for a segue? Thirteen and one for Carmin
and Bianco. Guys, I've been preaching it if you're interested
in buying picks at wagertalk dot com, we encourage people
to not just buy one, play, not just get one
and done. If you have been picking your spots with KRM,
a little bit of here, a little bit there, you've
missed out. You know, out of fourteen selections in the NHL,
he's cash thirteen of his last fourteen, so he's on
an absolute role. Brian's been doing extremely well. And you
know the thing is, we all do several sports, not
just one sport. You know, Carmine's doing soccer as well.
He does phenomenal with NFL, you know, during football season,
So make sure you guys check him out wagertalk dot com.
I'm not sure if karm has a play up for today.
I cannot speak to that, but thirteen and one run.
I did not know what the play was. I think
he had something in the Blues and Islanders game yesterday,
so he cashed again, So he's on a roll. I
wish he was here with us today. We'll have him
back tomorrow and he'll show up when there's like a
thirteen game slate. He said, Uh, I'll give Andrew and
Brian the two games slate. I don't have to worry
about the small one, but thirteen and one. Really great
stuff there from Carmine and comment from Victor. I don't
usually address comments like this and kind of a backhand
compliment pretty much saying couldn't find a more likable guy
than Andrew, but he just throws out these stats. The
problem is, and I'll tell you what, Victor, to be
honest with you, the crappy part is is that there
are half of you guys like hockey and half of
you guys like betting, and some of you guys like both.
I host a show once or twice a week on
the Hockeynews dot com you can check it out. I
talk hockey NonStop on that show. We don't talk sports betting.
It's a hockey podcast. And unfortunately, not everybody that watches
Wager Talk programming are actually sports fans. Believe it or not,
people are sports betters, and I hope that people can
be both. Brian and I had a whole segment for
a few minutes talking about what a sports day it
was Tuesday night in the world. But I'd love to
be able to break down hockey games specifically, but I
prefer to kind of look at some stats and websites
that I like to use on top of the handicap stuff,
and that helps me. So Brian, we don't like to
address too much stuff. And it was kind of a
backhand compliment. I guess it's like, can't find a nicer guy,
but he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Speaker 2: It's like, I don't really know that.
Speaker 3: I think you read that wrong. No, you're just talking
about your stats. No, that's that's not the case at all.
But we do appreciate I appreciate people watching the show
regardless of what they're doing. We've had a lot of
people tell us that we do too much talking before
we get to the first game. And Andrew learned from that
and he went right into the hockey today. So yeah,
we also you know, I wasn't part of this, but
originally we were planning on talking about and there's going
to be some graphics up there about teams to play
on or against for the rest of the season. I'm
not as prepared to that for that as Carmine would
have been, but I'm willing to give my own opinions
on that. I do want to point out that just
because and we're going to see this a lot in
college basketball today with the tournaments. I've already read the
teams that are on the bubble and they must win
this game. If you're on the bubble, everybody knows you're
on the bubble. They expect you to try to play harder.
I don't know, but you're not going to get rich
betting on teams that need to win. And so we've
got a lot of that going on right now in hockey.
I talked about that earlier with the Florida Panthers having
a lot of injuries earlier this season, and then they
go to the Olympics and they've got more Olympic players
than anybody else. And they've come out of the Olympic
break and yeah, they won two games in a row,
but they haven't been very impressive. They're still down eighteen
goals on the season. I consider it Florida. People going
to see the name Florida, and they've been to the
championship a lot lately. They're a public team. I think
we're going to continue to find value on going against
the Florida Panthers right now. I wouldn't use president money
to bet the Toronto Maple Leafs right now. To me,
they're a complete team that's dead. I've talked about the
Vegas Golden Knights right now. Vegas Golden Knights will just
continue to fall and fall. They're now at a plus
three differential goal on the season and they've got a
losing record at home fourteen to seventeen, losing record on
the road fifteen and nineteen. They're terrible in overtime, terrible
in shootouts. No confidence at all on Vegas. We saw
that again yesterday. They take a one nothing leading the
second period and give up two quick goals and all
Dallas did was just dump it down to the other
end and Vegas could not get anything going offense at
the end of the first period. Yesterday they throw the
six shots on goal, three for Dallas, three for Vegas.
This Vegas offense right now is really struggling, and yet
people know the Vegas Golden Knights. I was surprised that
line was as cheap as it was yesterday. I look
for more of that going on. So there's three teams
right there for myself that I'm looking to fade the
rest of the way out. And you know, i'd see
what you have to say about the teams that you're
looking to fade or play on the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: Not the Mayle be Laefs, that's for sure. That is
for sure. Not the Mayle Beliefs. I'll tell you why.
Like this Columbus Blue Jackets team, whether or not they
make the playoffs or not, we just talked about it,
you know when I brought that tweet up that I
found everybody around them is winning, Brian. So even if
they're winning, so are the Ottawa Senators, so are the
Montreal Canadians, so are the Red Wings. So we could
still see a team like Columbus have a great end
of the year and still not make the playoffs, it'd
be really interesting to me see if they look to
they catch up to the Boston Ruins. But Columbus was
a team that I was looking at. New York the
Rangers are a team I'm looking to bet on. They
currently sit the last spot in the Eastern Conference. I
mentioned this a couple of days ago, and they've now
won two straight games. And don't get me wrong, they
weren't against absolute world beaters. But this was one of
those scenarios here where this team is starting to look
like the team that they were supposed to be the
whole time. And I get it, Ran Maple Leafs, Flyers
and Flames. We're not gonna make a huge deal out
of that. They've got the Kings and the Jets and
the Wild coming up. But I guess from a betting standpoint,
we're gonna get value. I think betting on this New
York Rangers team, it's it's almost like you're getting an
absolute by a low spot for the rest of the.
Speaker 2: Season on the New York Rangers.
Speaker 1: So from a unit's perspective, from a value perspective, I
think that New York Rangers present a little bit of
value and then the Seattle Kraken. I'm very curious here.
They've got a minus a les goal differential on the season.
They've got the LA Kings breathing down their throats. This
is put up or shut up time for the Seattle Kraken.
I don't know about you, Brian, That's probably the team
I've had the least amount of wagers on the entire season,
totals sides bet.
Speaker 2: On or bet against.
Speaker 1: I don't know who the Kraken are, but this is
a team competing, so I can get some decent odds
on them, because I feel like they are underrated in
the betting market. So Seattle might be a team I
look at moving forward. Nobody seems to have faith in them.
We'll see if LA can get going. They fire their coach,
and it was very late in the season for LA
to fire their coach, so we'll see if that ends
up making a difference.
Speaker 2: But I'm curious to see what happens there.
Speaker 1: Our guy Nebraska says, when I buy a pick, I
pay for info and analysis, you keep giving me stats. Yeah,
I would say it's like a mixture of both, would
you say, Brian, Like analysis mixed with staff stuff like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, everybody does it a little bit differently. I'm more
of a spot player. I've given last year all my
write ups, I gave out a lot of stats, and
it seemed like they were just going on and on
and people just wanted to pick. They didn't want the stats.
So yeah, everybody is a little bit different. I do
give out smaller plays without the stats. For my seasonal
clients they already know. Like for example, today, I've got
one two plays up in college basketball, and one of
whom is a play I'm selling that I analyze. The
other one is just a smaller game. That way, I
could give out more plays for individual clients and don't
do the write ups on them. But yeah, everybody looking
for something else. Years ago, the last place I was
on before I went to ager Talk, they had a
forum and I asked everybody in the forum, and basically
sixty percent of the people said they only want to play.
It's the other forty percent wanted the analysis. I personally,
for my own betting. When I hear reach somebody else's analysis,
I don't care what the play is. I just want
the analysis because I want to add that to what
I'm thinking. And a lot of times, like you were
just saying about the first period for that goalie. That's
information I didn't know. It is enough to make me
have a player or not. I don't know, but it's
just more information. And that's the thing when you're looking
at analytics. There's a ton of information out there. You
have to weed out the things that don't mean anything.
It's like, you know, a lot of times they'll say
a team coming off of a loss, and the last
time they played this team, you know, it was thirty
games ago or whatever. That may not mean as much
as it does if they just played them last week.
So you've got you've got to take it all into
your head. And you've done this a long time. A
lot of our listeners have done this a long time. Yeah,
you know, and I do read other people either on
our site or other sites. Then handicap and a lot
of it that they put out there. I said, well,
that isn't anything to me. You know, they say this
team's fourteen to one on the season is a favorite,
but now you know they were seven point favorite and
all those other games in the NBA, now they're a
fourteen point favorite. That's a big difference, you know, So
you just have to take the information, put it in
your head, try to analyze the information. And I always
make the joke that if these guys are in the
locker room and one of the guys says, hey, do
you guys know that we're fourteen to two on a
Tuesday as an underdog, nobody's gonna laugh at them. But
yet people use that kind of information in their analysis.
With the guys in the locker room actually think that
meant anything, No.
Speaker 1: They don't, right exactly, And like, for look, I have
always I've learned more and more about the market over
the years, understanding the numbers, the opening numbers, the way
things are moving. I have definitely I would say baseball
is what got me into the analytics, and then I
have transitioned that into hockey. But you know, I'm like,
I'm a hockey a diehard hockey guy, Like I love
watching the game, talking the game with people, and I
know the game. But I didn't always know the Coursey
four percent, it's the high danger chance percentages, all these
different things. So it's been interesting looking at these numbers.
Speaker 2: Now. Some people want.
Speaker 1: The write ups where it's just out of your own head,
where you're just saying what I've been seeing and sometimes,
like one thing I've noticed with myself lately is you'll
have a right up that will look way different for
one game than the other. And one game is kind
of like what pres would call a field game, Like
this is out of my own head, like this is
what I feel about these two teams, and the other
one is like this data very strongly backs up the
Eulers defense is horrible. This team they're playing last five games,
has a strong offense, so on and so forth. So
it's very very fun to hear what everybody has to say,
and that's the beauty of it. We all look at
games in different ways. With all that being said, Brian,
I have not posted anything yet, but based on our discussion,
I do think I might end up on Montreal as
a small play, just because I think that it is
a very good number. It's a strong price on the underdog,
and we'll see. I'm I'm gonna have to double and
triple and quadruple check that first period Stata throw it
at you. But regardless, maybe this could be a night
to look at. Philip talk about freaky Friday, could be
a freaky Wednesday in the NHL two underdogs could cash
for me. One college basketball play for me. And again
we're getting ready for baseball season totals, team totals first five.
That's usually what I do. And I know Brian, you
love the baseball stuff as well. You got a great
package going on right now. Tell us about it and
we'll wrap the show up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've got If you buy our baseball package for
the season at a discount of price, you get the
rest of hockey or free number one all time at
wager talk in that profit in hockey as well as
Major League Baseball. And even though I don't put on
any plays in the preseason games, I read every article
on how the guys are playing. I'm on five or
six different baseball websites. Picture List does a fantastic job.
They break down every pitchers they got these cards they
just put out, and it's it's been great all over
the internet. They're talking about it and they break it
down as to yes, they great them on what happened
in the game when they pitched, but they also broke
it down into their their control in that game, where
they were throwing the pitches, the speed of the pitches,
and they grade everything so they may have a guy
that they give them a B minus on how he
did in the game from a results standpoint, but if
you look at his stats, they give him a D
on control, They give them a you know, an F
on on velocity, and so it gives you a lot more.
It's like you know, in football, I like to look
at game scorers and that kind of thing. So it
just gives you different things to look at. And in
hockey you have to look at things because you can
watch a game and I hate to go back to
the Olympics and say this Canada is the better team
in the Olympics, no doubt about it. If you look
at all the stats, they were better. That's not how hockey's.
Hockey is a luck game. Baseball many times is a
luck game, and there's many passes that it's a great
good guys right on there and he whips on the
on the shot right in front of the goal. We
see it all the time. So uh yeah, it's it's different.
You do learn more playing watching the hockey, I think
than you do in watching a lot of other sports.
I watch football all the time. I've never played anything
more than junior high football, so I'm not an expert
in football, but you can usually tell by looking at
a football game if a guy's wide open, especially if
you've got that you know, that service where you can
look at the all thirteen or whatever they call it.
But yeah, you can look at things differently. Basketball. Many
times in the NBA, watching a game doesn't tell you anything.
You got to look at the stats. Hockey, watching the
game helps you a lot, in my opinion.
Speaker 2: Just being able to check it.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what I've been I've been hosting
a podcast for a local team from where I live,
the hockey team, And one thing that's even funny is
I'm able to watch all the road games, like I
have the website subscription for watching the team's road games
and stuff. And when you're doing a podcast talking for
a team and you look at the stats versus actually
watching the game, it brings two different elements for the
podcast alone, Brian, like, I can talk about the stats
and the games, good summary and all that stuff, but
then to talk about a specific play that stood out
to me, or a goal that stood out to me,
or a bad hit, you have to watch the game.
Speaker 2: And then two weeks ago, I was.
Speaker 1: In person at a game, and that's a whole other
level to it of being in it. And I know
that some people might say again like it's not a
huge deal, but I think sometimes you could notice things,
and maybe not forbetting, but for my podcast purposes. You
sound more informed and you have more to say if
you're actually watching the game. And I'll tip my cap
to Steve Merrill because he talks about with the NBA,
he finds that it can throw him off. Actually, if
he's watching the game, he prefers to look at hard
hidden data, So I appreciate and respect him for that.
Speaker 2: Forty six minutes.
Speaker 1: I can't make fun of Carmine anymore because well we've
been yapping, that's for sure, and we've talked a lot
of sports and only two hockey games. But it was
a lot to break down, a lot to look at,
and certainly appreciate Brian for joining me once again. Guys
that car Mine is on a thirteen and one run,
so he's red hot. Brian has a fantastic package up
involving both the bases and hockey, and of course I
got action up tonight college basketball and in the NHL.
Wishing you guys all the best. We'll see you tomorrow's
same time, right here on puck time,