WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.080 --> 00:00:05.599 Hey, everyone, welcome to Eyes on Geopolitical Podcast. I'm Jack 2 00:00:05.679 --> 00:00:11.320 Murphy and today Dimitri is out because he got something 3 00:00:11.359 --> 00:00:14.519 eating at the buffet. So he's sitting upon the throne 4 00:00:15.119 --> 00:00:18.640 holding on for dear life as we speak. But we 5 00:00:18.760 --> 00:00:21.160 got a great cast of characters here today, joined by 6 00:00:21.199 --> 00:00:25.280 Mick mulroy, Mark Palmeropolis and John Hackett. Really happy to 7 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:27.719 have all of you guys back on the show. Thanks 8 00:00:27.719 --> 00:00:29.960 for coming on a Sunday afternoon. 9 00:00:31.559 --> 00:00:33.200 Good beer, great to be here. 10 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:35.600 Poor d what the heck? I hope he's got a 11 00:00:35.719 --> 00:00:38.679 nice good day. You needs Greek food. I was in 12 00:00:38.759 --> 00:00:44.240 a Greek food he he's a little bidet with a 13 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:47.039 little hot water splashing and you know, won't get irritated. 14 00:00:47.240 --> 00:00:49.600 A little slap and tickle. He'll be fine. 15 00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:51.920 All right. 16 00:00:52.000 --> 00:00:56.880 So on the agenda today, unless you know, any of 17 00:00:56.920 --> 00:00:59.840 you guys have things you'd like to add. I got Iran. 18 00:01:00.200 --> 00:01:05.480 The ceasefire is ending, I think in a week, talk 19 00:01:05.519 --> 00:01:10.200 about foreign intel services, who's better than who? And the 20 00:01:10.239 --> 00:01:13.040 story that came out this week about the CIA starting 21 00:01:13.120 --> 00:01:17.200 up some sort of Cuba task force. So I don't know, 22 00:01:17.239 --> 00:01:19.280 do we want to start at the top with Iran? 23 00:01:19.400 --> 00:01:25.239 All right? So any thoughts on what's going on with 24 00:01:25.280 --> 00:01:28.519 that as far as the negotiations, and I mean it's 25 00:01:28.560 --> 00:01:31.079 it seesaw it back and forth so much that honestly 26 00:01:31.120 --> 00:01:32.599 I'm not keeping track of it. 27 00:01:33.920 --> 00:01:36.319 So's what's interesting today just to frame this and then 28 00:01:36.359 --> 00:01:38.519 because you know, others are smarter than I on this, 29 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:42.040 but you know, everyone beats up on axios all the time, 30 00:01:42.120 --> 00:01:44.319 but they are kind of a reflection of what the 31 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:48.159 administration is thinking and the Barack gravied and acxios. They 32 00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:50.840 revealed a conversation with Trump today. He basically said he's 33 00:01:50.879 --> 00:01:53.799 doing nothing. He said, there's nothing's gonna happen. He's gonna 34 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:58.640 keep the status quo and essentially try to squeeze the 35 00:01:58.680 --> 00:02:02.719 Iranians economically. Clearly he does not want to go back 36 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:05.799 to any kind of military confrontation. I think we've certainly 37 00:02:05.840 --> 00:02:08.479 talked a lot about the lack of military options, and 38 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:11.280 you know there's reports that that German Joint chiefs Kane 39 00:02:11.280 --> 00:02:15.680 and adamal Cooper basically told him or warned him about 40 00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:18.680 essentially that a lot of these are not going to work. 41 00:02:19.080 --> 00:02:20.439 So this is where we are now. But I think 42 00:02:20.479 --> 00:02:22.560 the key thing and maybe Jonathan you can jump in 43 00:02:22.599 --> 00:02:24.919 on this because everyone is going to be okay, so 44 00:02:25.039 --> 00:02:27.159 this is going to be the US policy. What is 45 00:02:27.199 --> 00:02:29.759 Iran going to do? And I think that with the 46 00:02:29.919 --> 00:02:31.840 the old adage of the enemy gets a vote, I 47 00:02:31.840 --> 00:02:33.360 don't think the Iranians are going to sit around. 48 00:02:33.400 --> 00:02:33.560 You know. 49 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.639 Is there an opportunity for them to increase hybrid attacks, 50 00:02:37.159 --> 00:02:40.520 to increase the use of the proxies, and to start 51 00:02:40.759 --> 00:02:42.960 to continue striking ships in the straight up hor moves. 52 00:02:43.000 --> 00:02:44.879 It's not like the Iranians are going to sit around. 53 00:02:45.759 --> 00:02:47.560 They're going to inflict some pain because they seem to 54 00:02:47.560 --> 00:02:49.639 have a bit of leverage and they think they're have 55 00:02:49.680 --> 00:02:51.199 the upper hand. What are your what are your thoughts 56 00:02:51.199 --> 00:02:51.479 on that? 57 00:02:52.199 --> 00:02:53.879 Yeah, you're absolutely right. And I think they're already doing 58 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:57.280 that because we see in Yemen just yesterday the Houthis 59 00:02:57.360 --> 00:03:00.520 launched what they called a retaliation attack against the Saudis 60 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:02.759 because the Saudis had launched something. They actually put a 61 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:06.439 drone into many airspace. But the Huthis I think are 62 00:03:06.520 --> 00:03:08.759 kind of testing the perimeter to see how much they 63 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.240 can actually do in a future movement, to see what 64 00:03:11.319 --> 00:03:12.960 kind of air defenses are up right now, what kind 65 00:03:12.960 --> 00:03:16.479 of counter uas platforms are available. How would the Saudis respond. 66 00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:18.919 It looks like a little bit of perimeter testing, like 67 00:03:18.960 --> 00:03:21.319 touching around the edges there that they're doing. And we 68 00:03:21.360 --> 00:03:24.000 also see the Iraqi side, there's some Iraqi Shia militia 69 00:03:24.039 --> 00:03:26.319 groups that are doing some preparations and some kind of 70 00:03:26.680 --> 00:03:30.199 early stage movements that are outside their baseline. I wouldn't 71 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:32.840 be surprised if these were kind of being organized to 72 00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:35.639 possibly be used, but maybe not necessarily be used. But 73 00:03:35.680 --> 00:03:38.039 it's kind of how we think about positioning forces. We 74 00:03:38.080 --> 00:03:40.120 want to have guys there in case we need them, 75 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:42.120 And I think that's what we see moving right now, 76 00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:44.199 is that Iran is looking at, well, what happens if 77 00:03:44.280 --> 00:03:46.479 Trump decides to do something before the election or right 78 00:03:46.479 --> 00:03:49.240 after the election. We need to have forces ready already 79 00:03:49.280 --> 00:03:53.639 there that could be activated quickly without much assembly required. 80 00:03:53.919 --> 00:03:56.599 But then on the domestic front, you've got cracks in 81 00:03:56.639 --> 00:03:58.759 the regime. So you have people in the regime that 82 00:03:58.800 --> 00:04:00.840 really want this war to continue, people in the regime 83 00:04:00.840 --> 00:04:03.680 that want to do domestic oppression as the number one priority, 84 00:04:04.039 --> 00:04:06.800 and you also have this kind of what could be 85 00:04:06.879 --> 00:04:10.520 relatively described as dubbish folks in the regime, which you know, 86 00:04:10.560 --> 00:04:12.039 to the rest of the world, they are not doves. 87 00:04:12.039 --> 00:04:14.479 But compared to the hird liners like Pizeshki and the 88 00:04:14.479 --> 00:04:18.399 President clashing with the Supreme National Security Council, which is 89 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:22.480 the strategy setting body that's directly subordinate to the Ayatola, 90 00:04:23.519 --> 00:04:25.519 they don't agree on how this is supposed to be 91 00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:29.040 going Poseshkian's folks. The people that are actually, like Goliboff 92 00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:32.160 going to these negotiations, are trying to get a diplomatic outcome. 93 00:04:32.519 --> 00:04:35.920 We've seen General Kine also on the US side, recommending 94 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:38.480 a diplomatic off ramp as probably the best way out. 95 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:41.120 So both sides have this kind of diplomatic off ramp 96 00:04:41.160 --> 00:04:43.759 option that they're floating on their own respective sides with 97 00:04:43.800 --> 00:04:46.399 different conditions for what that means. But then also there 98 00:04:46.399 --> 00:04:48.399 are hawks as well on both sides who are saying, no, 99 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:50.800 we're not going to be doing diplomatic activity, We're going 100 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:54.040 to be doing military activity or something else that's not diplomatic, 101 00:04:54.120 --> 00:04:58.240 perhaps economic as the other major option. So it's important 102 00:04:58.279 --> 00:05:01.199 to watch inside Iran what's going on with regime because 103 00:05:01.199 --> 00:05:04.360 that's what's going to help us understand what are the 104 00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:08.040 actual potential outcomes here. I was on another news channel 105 00:05:08.079 --> 00:05:09.600 recently and I was asked that question, you know, like, 106 00:05:09.639 --> 00:05:12.160 what about this thing that Dan Kaine said. He said 107 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:13.800 that there should be a diplomatic off ramp, and you know, 108 00:05:13.839 --> 00:05:16.839 really that's that's our chairman of the Joint Chiefs making 109 00:05:16.879 --> 00:05:20.279 a military advisor's recommendation to a policy maker, which is 110 00:05:20.480 --> 00:05:24.160 the executive. Whereas you know, Kin can't set military policy, 111 00:05:24.199 --> 00:05:26.759 he can recommend what to do and the president listens. 112 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.879 And it's very similar structure in Iran. Not the same titles, 113 00:05:29.920 --> 00:05:32.720 but similar with the Supreme National Security Council. You've got 114 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:35.639 this policy setting body. Then you have others who are saying, no, 115 00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:37.399 we should do X, we should do, why we should 116 00:05:37.399 --> 00:05:39.720 do z? And the policy making body is ignoring that, 117 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.240 or members within the party are doing their own kind 118 00:05:43.240 --> 00:05:46.319 of side quests in the Red Sea, for example, with 119 00:05:46.360 --> 00:05:49.560 the with the Houthis and there's there's some untanglement going 120 00:05:49.639 --> 00:05:51.240 on there where we in the West look at it 121 00:05:51.240 --> 00:05:54.040 as a monolith and it's not. It's actually different actors 122 00:05:54.040 --> 00:05:56.680 with different objectives. Some of them are domestic objectives, have 123 00:05:56.680 --> 00:05:59.079 nothing to do with foreign policy that they think they 124 00:05:59.120 --> 00:06:03.160 need to do. The Houthy activation versus a Hashtashabi, which 125 00:06:03.199 --> 00:06:07.680 is a popular mobilization forces reaction or nothing and just 126 00:06:07.720 --> 00:06:09.720 open the straights up. One thing they all have in 127 00:06:09.720 --> 00:06:12.120 common is that they understand the straits are now the 128 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:13.720 most important thing in this negotiation. 129 00:06:13.800 --> 00:06:16.560 They will not let go of it. I was gonna say, John, 130 00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:19.639 I mean, when we talk about the status quo today, 131 00:06:20.040 --> 00:06:22.439 it's different than the status quo a year ago or 132 00:06:22.439 --> 00:06:25.600 even six months ago. And it seems that the Iranians 133 00:06:25.639 --> 00:06:29.519 are pretty dead set on militarizing and controlling the straits 134 00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:32.560 of her Moods, which gives them military control over the 135 00:06:32.600 --> 00:06:33.319 Persian Gulf. 136 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:37.519 I mean that they want to monetize it. So before 137 00:06:37.560 --> 00:06:39.360 it was about control, especially in the early days of 138 00:06:39.399 --> 00:06:40.560 the war, when they're like, we just need to get 139 00:06:40.600 --> 00:06:42.839 this under control. This is part of our sovereign territory. 140 00:06:42.839 --> 00:06:45.800 If you look at maps, when Abbas Araguchi, the Foreign Minister, 141 00:06:45.879 --> 00:06:48.199 is speaking on his podium, behind him is a map 142 00:06:48.199 --> 00:06:50.800 of Iran, and you can see it's not just the 143 00:06:50.879 --> 00:06:53.399 land that's the map of Iran. It's also the Caspian 144 00:06:53.439 --> 00:06:56.199 Sea and the Persian Gulf are part of the map. 145 00:06:56.560 --> 00:06:58.959 This is a new development. This was not this way 146 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:01.600 so This is just something to kind of think about symbolically. 147 00:07:01.680 --> 00:07:04.800 How are they viewing this situation. Well, they've already changed 148 00:07:04.839 --> 00:07:07.879 their maps in a way that is not good for us. 149 00:07:08.079 --> 00:07:10.360 It's not good for the status quo before the war, 150 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:13.399 status quo ante, right, So they seem to be coming 151 00:07:13.399 --> 00:07:15.360 to this with the idea that there is more to 152 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:18.560 be gained than what they've already gained. They're going toward 153 00:07:18.560 --> 00:07:21.199 a monetization which I've seen estimates of up to seven 154 00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:24.920 percent of the value of cargo passing through. They've also 155 00:07:24.920 --> 00:07:28.680 floated the idea of inbound traffic being handled by one 156 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.120 of Oman or Iran, while outbound traffic is handled by 157 00:07:31.160 --> 00:07:33.920 the other country. They've set up these kind of zones, 158 00:07:33.959 --> 00:07:37.360 and they're they're kind like creating a situation where it's 159 00:07:37.399 --> 00:07:40.319 going to be a phata company where it's already happening 160 00:07:40.439 --> 00:07:43.160 and has been happening and cannot be dismantled. And it 161 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:46.560 seems that they're stalling some of them in the negotiations 162 00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:49.040 to allow these structures to be built up so that 163 00:07:49.120 --> 00:07:52.199 when months from now, the US finally comes to a 164 00:07:52.199 --> 00:07:54.839 decision that, oh, actually we're going to open the straits again. Well, 165 00:07:54.839 --> 00:07:57.519 it's gonna be a lot tougher then than it is now, 166 00:07:57.519 --> 00:07:59.360 and then it was obviously two months before. 167 00:08:00.399 --> 00:08:02.480 Hey, can I ask make a question here because I've 168 00:08:02.480 --> 00:08:04.079 been thinking of Mike. I'm serious. I know you've been 169 00:08:04.120 --> 00:08:06.319 traveling about, but I've been thinking about you because I 170 00:08:06.360 --> 00:08:08.560 am now even though I am the Greek, you're kind 171 00:08:08.560 --> 00:08:10.399 of the Greek. He kind of wants to be a 172 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:12.279 Greek a little bit. You got your Greek, but you 173 00:08:12.319 --> 00:08:15.399 have gotten me into this well, the Stoicism, right, yes, 174 00:08:15.680 --> 00:08:19.240 one holiday, I've been obsessing over this. I've been reading 175 00:08:19.240 --> 00:08:21.839 it relentlessly, and so here's what I wanted to ask you. 176 00:08:22.560 --> 00:08:25.079 And it does pertain to the current situation now because 177 00:08:25.120 --> 00:08:28.000 again you wonder, and this has to do with you know, 178 00:08:28.240 --> 00:08:32.000 how the US military is poised right now, and all 179 00:08:32.039 --> 00:08:36.000 the notion of shortages of precision weapons. You know, it's 180 00:08:36.039 --> 00:08:37.960 and it's it's something that we did at CIA. We 181 00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:40.320 actually practiced a lot of the Stoic traits in a 182 00:08:40.360 --> 00:08:42.519 simple operational meeting. You plan for the worst and you 183 00:08:42.519 --> 00:08:44.679 work backwards. I mean that's the you know what is 184 00:08:44.799 --> 00:08:47.000 what is the post mortem? Then's the pre mortem? I 185 00:08:47.039 --> 00:08:49.480 mean that's an element of Stoicism. See I'm I'm getting 186 00:08:49.519 --> 00:08:52.320 into all this stuff. That's good and so and so 187 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:53.799 that's what we did all the time, because when you 188 00:08:53.799 --> 00:08:55.720 plan for an ops meeting, okay, what can go wrong? 189 00:08:56.159 --> 00:08:58.279 That's what you do all the time. What are the scenarios? 190 00:08:58.919 --> 00:09:02.519 So for the US military with Iran? I still don't understand. 191 00:09:02.559 --> 00:09:05.879 And your previous job as a senior civilian official at 192 00:09:05.919 --> 00:09:08.519 DED is perfect. How have we not how did we 193 00:09:08.559 --> 00:09:11.360 not do that? How did we not look at scenarios? Okay, 194 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:13.919 it's because the scenario would be a long drawn out 195 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:18.320 conflict period and then we planned from that. Yet yet 196 00:09:18.360 --> 00:09:20.639 we are short we have a shortage of precision weapons. 197 00:09:21.039 --> 00:09:23.080 It's it's something that I just I'm scratching my head 198 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:24.720 and I do I've gone back to the theme before 199 00:09:24.759 --> 00:09:28.000 we've talked about uh uh. And I will never denigrate 200 00:09:28.039 --> 00:09:29.960 the men and women in the US military, But the 201 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:32.919 leadership at the Pentagon, I am kind of even the 202 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:35.399 uniform leadership. How did Dan Kane and Admiral Cooper and 203 00:09:35.480 --> 00:09:39.879 others not conduct this type of stoic planning in the 204 00:09:39.919 --> 00:09:42.960 sense of not under not not not planning for the 205 00:09:43.000 --> 00:09:46.159 worst and then and then working backwards. What are your 206 00:09:46.159 --> 00:09:48.480 thoughts on that. I've been excited all week to ask 207 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:49.039 you this question. 208 00:09:49.279 --> 00:09:51.720 A right, So I just I just got back from 209 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:54.519 DC literally an hour and a half ago. I landed, right, 210 00:09:54.639 --> 00:09:58.399 So I was there in part to have discussions on this. 211 00:09:58.799 --> 00:10:01.639 Were you played that group that was asked to chat that? 212 00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:04.000 The CNN reported that there's a whole bunch of military 213 00:10:04.039 --> 00:10:05.440 analysts who were asked for their opinion. 214 00:10:06.480 --> 00:10:09.799 Maybe I was in DC asked. I was in DC, 215 00:10:10.000 --> 00:10:13.080 and I had many discussions on this very topic. By 216 00:10:13.080 --> 00:10:15.600 the way, so the obstacle is away. It comes from 217 00:10:15.639 --> 00:10:18.720 a quote by Aurelius, which is what stands in the 218 00:10:18.759 --> 00:10:22.639 way is the way that kind of became the ethos 219 00:10:22.679 --> 00:10:24.879 for how to train Western militaries. 220 00:10:26.639 --> 00:10:29.720 That's what I love you stuff twice. There's a lot 221 00:10:29.759 --> 00:10:30.759 of stoic principles. 222 00:10:30.919 --> 00:10:33.840 Yeah, we could have a whole podcast on the odyssey. 223 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:35.639 For sure, shaking his head right now, where's this gone? 224 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:40.000 That's my next podcast. I'll be talking about that. But 225 00:10:40.120 --> 00:10:43.240 for this so and I'll get to your question. I mean, 226 00:10:43.480 --> 00:10:46.600 this isn't just an issue of this administration, right, So 227 00:10:46.639 --> 00:10:49.440 we've been we've been think about this. This is a 228 00:10:49.480 --> 00:10:52.480 regional conflict with a mediocre military and we're almost out 229 00:10:52.480 --> 00:10:57.519 of Schlitz, so that's not they're talking about the deputy 230 00:10:57.559 --> 00:11:00.240 sect definie now like it's his fault, Like that would 231 00:11:00.240 --> 00:11:02.120 have been the case no matter what, because we don't 232 00:11:02.120 --> 00:11:04.039 always get to pick when we go to war. We 233 00:11:04.080 --> 00:11:06.000 could have just gone to war. So this isn't a 234 00:11:06.039 --> 00:11:08.559 partisan issue. This could have been Biden, this could have 235 00:11:08.559 --> 00:11:11.039 been Trump, this could have been a this could have 236 00:11:11.080 --> 00:11:13.480 been right. So it had been everybody. So I think, 237 00:11:13.639 --> 00:11:17.559 you know, let's dispense of the fingerpoint when it comes 238 00:11:17.600 --> 00:11:21.120 to political but fingerpoint when it comes to USA. This 239 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:26.000 is not sustainable. And now in addition to the ability 240 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:30.759 to keep up with like defensive interceptors, pactories, fads, et cetera. 241 00:11:31.039 --> 00:11:33.159 And I think we've used about eighty percent of the bads. 242 00:11:33.559 --> 00:11:36.639 I don't know that specifically, but that's what's being reported, 243 00:11:36.679 --> 00:11:41.320 not from my conversation. We need to adjust quickly. And 244 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:44.480 at the same time, we have a massive evolution in 245 00:11:44.559 --> 00:11:52.039 modern warfare, which is a low cost, extraordinarily lethal alternatives 246 00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:57.039 to these really expensive, very lethal conventional weapons that we've 247 00:11:57.080 --> 00:11:59.159 always had. So this is the issue we have to address. 248 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:04.639 It's actually not the uniform military's fault to be Frank, 249 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:08.440 I mean, I'm biased. But this is policy, man, this 250 00:12:08.519 --> 00:12:11.480 is policy. It's not like you're asking generals, do you 251 00:12:11.600 --> 00:12:13.679 do not want more weapons? Do you not want low 252 00:12:13.720 --> 00:12:16.600 cost star trend to is this is policies. Political people 253 00:12:17.039 --> 00:12:20.840 decide where and how they're going to make these weapons systems. 254 00:12:20.840 --> 00:12:24.519 It becomes ingrained in the actual political system. So it's 255 00:12:24.559 --> 00:12:27.360 a much broader conversation. But we got to have it 256 00:12:27.480 --> 00:12:30.480 because we got to change it. That's my take. It's 257 00:12:30.519 --> 00:12:33.120 it's simply everybody should see this. I think Mark is 258 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:39.759 either meditating or what's going on there. I know somebody 259 00:12:39.759 --> 00:12:42.000 turned them on. Oh there, he's back. He's back. Okay, 260 00:12:45.399 --> 00:12:47.519 So some of the some of the stuff I could 261 00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:50.200 throw out there that might be a good discussion points 262 00:12:50.679 --> 00:12:55.159 you've already touched on some of it. Iron's completely embolded, right. 263 00:12:56.000 --> 00:12:59.000 Their demands are going up. Okay, they're not going down, 264 00:12:59.639 --> 00:13:01.919 They're going up. I mean every time they don't believe 265 00:13:01.960 --> 00:13:04.799 the United States is willing to use, you know, the 266 00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:07.600 force necessary to open the straits and then keep it open, right, 267 00:13:07.639 --> 00:13:10.279 because one thing to force it open, next thing, keep 268 00:13:10.279 --> 00:13:12.960 it open. Right, they don't believe we want to escalate 269 00:13:13.279 --> 00:13:16.879 in part because of the lack of precision monitions and 270 00:13:16.960 --> 00:13:21.759 defensive interceptors and the political fallout of an unpopular word 271 00:13:21.799 --> 00:13:27.159 being less popular. So every time you hear the negotiators 272 00:13:27.159 --> 00:13:30.919 talk about their new requirements, goes up. Right, So complete 273 00:13:30.960 --> 00:13:34.480 reconstruction seven percent, like Jonathan said, So somebody told me 274 00:13:34.759 --> 00:13:40.399 seven percent just energy alone would be about fifty billion 275 00:13:40.440 --> 00:13:42.759 dollars a year that they would get from the normal flow. 276 00:13:43.159 --> 00:13:45.559 If you added everything into it, which is all the 277 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:48.200 you know, stuff that goes into food production and all 278 00:13:48.200 --> 00:13:50.480 that stuff, it gets close to one hundred billion dollars 279 00:13:50.519 --> 00:13:54.360 in revenue for the regime. Think about that one hundred billion, 280 00:13:55.000 --> 00:13:58.720 and who's paying it? Everybody? It's not the United States, 281 00:13:59.159 --> 00:14:01.279 everybody around the world. So it's not a tax on 282 00:14:01.320 --> 00:14:05.759 the world that I think should wake the world up 283 00:14:05.799 --> 00:14:09.480 to say, hey, wait, that's unacceptable to us because my 284 00:14:09.559 --> 00:14:11.159 people are going to pay more. And now I push 285 00:14:11.159 --> 00:14:13.039 it a lot, but we got to get an international 286 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:16.399 coalition here because this is this is something that the 287 00:14:16.440 --> 00:14:19.519 world should find unacceptable because right now that's the way 288 00:14:19.559 --> 00:14:22.600 it's going unless something deviates from that. They on the street, 289 00:14:23.799 --> 00:14:25.480 I know, we don't like to say that, but I 290 00:14:25.519 --> 00:14:28.279 mean clearly. You know, it's normal like one hundred and 291 00:14:28.279 --> 00:14:30.559 ten ships that go through a day, but it'll we 292 00:14:30.600 --> 00:14:35.080 had four six, which it means it's close. So we've 293 00:14:35.120 --> 00:14:37.000 got to do something to change that. And then you 294 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.120 have what looks like somewhat of a not that it 295 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:45.559 was always unified, but the GC seems GCC seems to 296 00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:48.840 be falling apart. Right. You got Saudi going with Turkey 297 00:14:48.960 --> 00:14:53.759 and Pakistan. You've got the Amiradis with the Bahraini's kind 298 00:14:53.759 --> 00:14:56.679 of like, let's go ahead and finish the job. And 299 00:14:56.799 --> 00:15:02.279 you've got what one who's left, Katari's and other countries 300 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:05.039 that are kind of like, holy crap. This is Omani's right, 301 00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:06.559 are kind of like holy crap right in the middle 302 00:15:06.559 --> 00:15:08.960 of this stuff. We need to get this result. So 303 00:15:09.559 --> 00:15:13.679 we have a splintering of our allies and partners who 304 00:15:14.120 --> 00:15:20.399 I think are now really concerned about their security going 305 00:15:20.440 --> 00:15:23.200 forward and whether we're willing to defend them because we are. 306 00:15:23.279 --> 00:15:25.600 I think pulling forces out of a lot of those 307 00:15:25.639 --> 00:15:28.240 countries and putting them further away, like in Jordan and 308 00:15:28.399 --> 00:15:32.440 Israel makes sense from a force protection perspective, but you know, 309 00:15:32.559 --> 00:15:37.200 why did these countries host our military before wasn't so 310 00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:39.000 that when the war started that we would leave, right. 311 00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:43.480 So these are all challenges. So you got the GCC question, 312 00:15:43.559 --> 00:15:46.440 then you've got and i'd throw on your list. Jack 313 00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:51.159 Net Yahoo just came out and rejected the border pieces 314 00:15:51.519 --> 00:15:55.919 fifteen point playing. He just said no, and he said 315 00:15:55.919 --> 00:15:59.039 sometimes you got to tell you best friends, essentially, Ela. 316 00:16:00.279 --> 00:16:05.639 So the announcement we made about Hamas disarming and the 317 00:16:05.679 --> 00:16:10.840 IDF withdrawing, it's not going to happen. IDF doesn't think 318 00:16:10.840 --> 00:16:14.159 they're going to disarm. They probably have no way to 319 00:16:14.200 --> 00:16:17.519 actually talent they've disarmed, and so they just came out. 320 00:16:17.559 --> 00:16:19.200 You know, they have elections. I know, you guys know 321 00:16:19.799 --> 00:16:24.960 on October and so that issue, which we didn't have resolved, 322 00:16:24.960 --> 00:16:26.559 but at least it was going in the right direction 323 00:16:26.759 --> 00:16:30.240 we thought is not right. And that's all tied together. Right, 324 00:16:30.279 --> 00:16:34.360 These are all boxing So how do we get out 325 00:16:34.360 --> 00:16:36.399 of it? I mean, I guess I throw it back 326 00:16:36.399 --> 00:16:39.720 to everybody else. But we're in a situation where the 327 00:16:39.759 --> 00:16:43.960 United States I don't think, can accept a closed trade. 328 00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:46.279 It has to go back to the original. We can't 329 00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:48.679 pay for it. Maybe we can agree to in the 330 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:52.120 naval blockade. That's fair but we can't be paying three 331 00:16:52.159 --> 00:16:55.639 hundred billion dollars for reconstructing a country that we attacked. 332 00:16:56.600 --> 00:16:59.799 The country that pays the reconstruction lost, just say it 333 00:17:00.600 --> 00:17:03.279 like that. That can't be the case. So, and we 334 00:17:03.399 --> 00:17:05.400 got to do something in the nuclear program. They're obviously 335 00:17:05.440 --> 00:17:08.960 not interested in a new nuclear agreement, which they were, 336 00:17:09.279 --> 00:17:12.000 So we're going to have to plan on a continuous 337 00:17:12.839 --> 00:17:15.440 mitigation of the threats the best way I can put it, 338 00:17:15.519 --> 00:17:18.119 which means we're gonna have to keep striking facilities that 339 00:17:18.200 --> 00:17:21.519 we think are acted. So the war's not going to end, 340 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:23.960 right if you think of it that way. So we're 341 00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:26.960 in a situation that's to your point. I mean, did 342 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:30.960 we plan this out? It doesn't look like it, But 343 00:17:31.079 --> 00:17:33.559 we are where we are. So going forward, how does America? 344 00:17:33.720 --> 00:17:38.039 How does the United States come out as a strategic success? 345 00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:41.720 It's going to take a lot effort. 346 00:17:42.079 --> 00:17:44.200 There's an after action piece of this too, in which 347 00:17:44.480 --> 00:17:46.680 you know, I mean, aren't we supposed to fight two 348 00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:49.960 wars at once? Wasn't that the DoD st and yes, 349 00:17:50.680 --> 00:17:54.480 one war which is like against a second rate military 350 00:17:54.759 --> 00:17:57.359 and sustain it. I mean, I get, I still am 351 00:17:57.400 --> 00:18:02.240 just mystified that that there wasn't or planning involved, or 352 00:18:02.279 --> 00:18:05.759 at least if US military officials were not stronger with 353 00:18:05.839 --> 00:18:08.160 the president saying this is not sustainable, we can't do that. 354 00:18:08.160 --> 00:18:10.440 I mean, there there's you know, if you look back, 355 00:18:10.599 --> 00:18:12.759 I remember, you know when when I was in government 356 00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:14.599 talking to these rallies, and there was there was some 357 00:18:14.680 --> 00:18:17.119 Israeli massa chief Meyer Degan one of them, who would 358 00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:19.480 tell the Israeli Prime minister, we cannot attack her on 359 00:18:19.920 --> 00:18:22.559 we we we should not do this, period, end of story. 360 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:25.039 And I don't see that from US officials. I just 361 00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:27.400 the people around Trump don't have that ability, like a 362 00:18:27.480 --> 00:18:30.799 Jim Maddis had uh on the first term saying no, 363 00:18:31.480 --> 00:18:34.039 we can't do this. I don't see that. I don't 364 00:18:34.039 --> 00:18:37.079 see Caine strong enough doing that, certainly not Hegseth. And 365 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:39.680 so maybe that's why we're in kind of the pickle 366 00:18:39.680 --> 00:18:39.960 we're in. 367 00:18:40.720 --> 00:18:44.240 Yeah, I mean that's like a larger political question about 368 00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:47.559 you know, what happens when a president installs a bunch 369 00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:52.160 of sikaphants around him and your you know, your your advisors, 370 00:18:52.160 --> 00:18:54.799 the people that are supposed to, you know, help help 371 00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:57.039 you make good decisions, or actually just telling you what 372 00:18:57.079 --> 00:19:00.440 you want to hear, and I think we're pretty clearly 373 00:19:00.880 --> 00:19:04.359 in that situation right now. But I wanted to ask 374 00:19:04.440 --> 00:19:07.359 you guys also about this article in the Jerusalem Post 375 00:19:09.240 --> 00:19:12.440 and when we start talking about insurgents in Iran and 376 00:19:12.559 --> 00:19:15.000 foreign groups, and you know, we've talked about arming the 377 00:19:15.039 --> 00:19:18.519 Kurds in the past, and John, you've also expanded on 378 00:19:18.559 --> 00:19:24.200 some of the different rebel groups in Iran. This article 379 00:19:24.440 --> 00:19:29.160 is claiming besiege singer abducted in torture to death as 380 00:19:29.240 --> 00:19:34.039 group Ashtara Zero Day claims responsibility. Have you guys seen 381 00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:36.960 this article and like, what's your thought about you know, 382 00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:40.480 who this group could be. Do they have a daddy? 383 00:19:40.640 --> 00:19:41.640 And is it us? 384 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:45.640 So this group is actually an interesting one to look 385 00:19:45.680 --> 00:19:49.119 at from an open source intelligence perspective, like using like 386 00:19:49.160 --> 00:19:54.039 analytical tools. Their Instagram became active in December twenty twenty five. 387 00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:57.599 They made a few posts up through January and then stopped. 388 00:19:57.759 --> 00:20:00.400 Remember the war started February twenty eighth. There were no 389 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:04.480 more posts until April, and the posts in April were 390 00:20:04.480 --> 00:20:07.720 different than the posts in January. They were still in 391 00:20:07.759 --> 00:20:11.359 the same category of material, which was anti regime posts saying, 392 00:20:11.400 --> 00:20:13.759 you know, like the beusiege had been murdering us, which 393 00:20:13.799 --> 00:20:16.279 is true. The Busiege were out there shooting and killing 394 00:20:16.319 --> 00:20:19.720 and slaughtering people, but there was no communication from January 395 00:20:19.799 --> 00:20:22.480 to April. In April, when they came back, they started 396 00:20:22.519 --> 00:20:26.160 focusing on doxing specific Busiege people, saying, you know, this 397 00:20:26.240 --> 00:20:28.400 guy lives at this house, he was there at the 398 00:20:28.400 --> 00:20:31.839 protests and killed these people. We will pay you using 399 00:20:31.839 --> 00:20:35.119 cryptocurrency on a telegram channel if you kill them and 400 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:37.119 send us a video of you killing them. As soon 401 00:20:37.160 --> 00:20:39.200