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Speaker 1: The Deli has still been red hot in his back

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open for business here in week fourteen of college football.

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Those barking dogs are going to keep us cashing through

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the end of the regular season and hopefully on to

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those bowl games. The Seam Report from VR get ready

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to rapid fire write down all those sharp plays and

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of course, best bets on an incredible college football weekend

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up next on bet on it. There are tons of

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top twenty five games this weekend, so it was hard

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for me to choose, but I just went with the

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Saturday games because I need this show to have a

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little bit of longevity with the Thanksgiving holiday, So we

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are going to touch on a couple of those Friday

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games here, at least from a conversational personective, I'm Kelly Stewart,

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joined by YACHTI the Greek Marco DiAngelo, and.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get right into this.

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Speaker 1: I'm up first, and this is a game that's well, frankly,

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I didn't think would be that interesting, but it sure is.

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Twelve pm Eastern on Fox number fifteen, Michigan at number

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one Ohio State Ohio State nine and a half ten

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Here on the Odds Lotic screen forty five and a

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half is the total.

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Speaker 2: This is why it's interesting.

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Speaker 1: Michigan has won and covered each of the last four meetings,

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including last year as nineteen and a half point road underdogs,

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they won thirteen to ten in Columbus, Ohio State. Sure,

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they control their own destiny. If they win here, they're

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going to the Big Ten championship game, but a loss

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would keep them at home next weekend. Here's my question, though,

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do they really care about a conference championship. Sure they

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care about beating Michigan because there are huge rivals, but

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this team's already looking ahead to the college football playoff.

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They also have a couple guys that are banged up.

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Jeremiah and Carnell Tate both both missed last weekend against Rutgers.

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Ryan Day has not alluded to whether they will be

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available for this game, so definitely check their status prior

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to making any wagers. Michigan back to that Big Ten

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Conference game still as an outside shot. To make it,

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they need to win here and hope that Washington can

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beat Oregon. We'll get to Washington here in just a

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little bit. But for my friends at the gold Sheet,

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if you're interested in the total since twenty nineteen, there

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have been nine instances with two to nine plus win

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teams playing the final week of the regular season, and

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that includes nine Michigan Ohio State games ours four of

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the nine excuse me, All nine of those games have

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gone over the total by an average margin of nine

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point two points per game. That system also applies to

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Georgia Tech. Georgia, I think this is a lot of

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points here for a game in which I bet against

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Michigan last week in hopes they would be looking ahead here.

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Not a huge opinion, but I do lean Michigan in

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this one. Maybe Marco's got a bigger opinion on this

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next game another noon Eastern on ABC number thirteen, Miami

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at number twenty four, Pittsburgh. Almost a touchdown here, Marco.

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Fifty nine and a half is the total.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly and pitt backed up what their coach said

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two weeks ago. Remember when he said, prior to the

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Notre Dame game, I don't care if we lose one

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hundred and three to ten. The only thing that matters

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is the next two ACC games. Well, part one, they

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took care of business. They beat Georgia Tech forty two

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to twenty eight, but Georgia Tech's not as good as

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people thought. VR told you that last week with his

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power ratings. You saw it on the field with Pitt

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dismantling them. Pitt was able to have their way because

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Georgia Tech defense isn't that good. Miami is a good defense.

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But you know what's even better that Miami offense and

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that Miami defense. They've held every opponent but one to

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twenty four points or fewer, and they've held seven of

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their opponents to seventeen or less. When it comes to

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stopping the Miami offense, Pitt's gonna have problems because Miami

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has scored thirty four or more six times this year.

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The Miami passing attack by far the best passing attack

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that Pitt has seen this year. And let's not forget

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you got to point it out, but Miami might need

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style points, so they're not gonna take their foot off

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the gas in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and

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take Miami. I'm gonna lay the six and a half

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against my Pitt Panthers. Yeah, I bet against my teams

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as much as I go with them. That's why I

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love Delly, And now I'm feeling you're paying that I

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went against Chicago in our Thanksgiving video. Wow, I get

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some pushback from the comments section. I got a bet

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with your head and not your heart. And whenever we

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make a play against the team, it's not because we

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don't like that team. We just like the other play

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better that week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's funny.

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Speaker 1: I always get that, Oh, you hate so and so team,

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you hate this team, And I'm like, now, I just

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enjoy betting against them because they're not very good against

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the spread.

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Speaker 2: Are you are up next?

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Speaker 1: We got three thirty pm Eastern on ESPN, number twelve,

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Vander Built catching just a round a field goal at

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number eighteen tennessee sixty four and a half. Here is

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the total before we get into the breakdown here. Do

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you think Diego Pavia has a shot to win the Heisman?

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Speaker 2: Have you seen any Heisman action?

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Speaker 1: I know that he's been in the conversation in the

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mix as well as saying as well as Mendoza and

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of course Jeremiah Love.

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Speaker 4: No, I haven't heard an I haven't seen any sharp

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action on him at all, and I haven't seen any

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futures on Heisman. And you think this year that would

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be the case, especially since they got it wrong at

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the beginning, and the odds have been shifting so much

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that you would get at least some of the betting

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send to begause. I'm sure sharps have gotten ino, you know,

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sharp betters in college football have gotten down, But none

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of the groups that I provide accounts for have gotten

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involved with the Heisman race at all.

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Speaker 5: And I don't know.

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Speaker 4: If he's a front runner. They say he is at

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least right now. But I think Vandy's phony and that

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that's the bottom line. That's that's the problem, and I

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think they're gonna get exposed eventually, if not this week,

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and that shot of the Heisman I think goes with it.

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Speaker 5: Here here's the bottom line. I've been talking.

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Speaker 4: About Vandy being over valued, over ranked this entire season,

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and I know some of you guys don't like hearing

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me use the word power rating over and over, but

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that's all it comes down to. At the end of

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the day, it's my numbers versus their numbers, and which

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one is more efficient at predicting the true implied win

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probability between Team AY and Team B. That's the bottom line.

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We could talk ex'es and nose, we could talk players names.

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We could talk all this, all this shit, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 5: At the end of the day.

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Speaker 4: What's the point spread, What should it be? Is there

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a difference and do you fire?

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Speaker 5: That's it.

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Speaker 4: Everything else is just noise. And when you come in

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with a thirty and nine record on bed on it

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my analysis should be because I said so, and that's it.

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Speaker 5: I wanted to be a dick, not even give one.

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Speaker 4: But with that said, let's give you a little analysis.

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Here's the bottom line. Tennessee the better team at least

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ten spots power rating wise better. I have Tennessee right

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now in my top fifteen. I don't have Vanderbilt in

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my top twenty, all right, And Vanderbilts had a twenty

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fifth toughest schedule, and with that they've had teeth most

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deficient offense, forty fifth most efficient defense. Tennessee's had the

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eighteenth toughest schedule, so tougher than Vanderbilt. And they've had

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the number one defense, so the number one offense. Forgive me,

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number one most efficient offense. And now they're going up

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against a forty five length defense. They're gonna have a

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good time on Saturday against Vanderbilt's defense.

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Speaker 5: That's for sure.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna force that Vanderbilt offense to try to get

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it done. They're gonna have a problem. Like I said,

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they had a tough strength of schedule. Tennessee defense is

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the weak side of the ball. But I don't think

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Vandy's gonna be able to do too much damage there.

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Tennessee minus two and a half juice is a gift.

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Minus three is a gift. They win this one by

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double digits. Don't tease Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 5: It's not enough.

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Speaker 4: You're seeing the total getting steamed over because Tennessee is

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gonna have an easy time putting points on the board.

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I haven't gotten the window with it. That's the disclaimer again.

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I can give you what I had for the show

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between now and kick off. Hopefully I get confirmation, but

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right now I do like Tennessee just haven't fired.

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Speaker 1: All right, VR, I'm gonna let you fire all of

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your stuff here in a minute on the Steam Report.

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But first I want to let you guys know this

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week you can get a free copy of the gold

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Sheet right now, go right over to this website. Dan

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Alexander's gonna put it on the screen for me, and

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it's a picks and parlays website actually, and it's available

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also on the gold sheet page, whichever is easiest for you.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 1: Right here is your website to get a free copy

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of this.

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Speaker 2: Week's gold sheet.

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Speaker 1: All right, VR, Like I do on Last Call every

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single Saturday, I just let you go and do your.

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Speaker 6: Thing and then I'll let the comments sort it out afterwards.

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All right, let's run through five for Friday, five for Saturday.

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I'll tell you only two games have gotten resistance, little

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high profile, so we're gonna touch on them.

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Speaker 4: Start off with Friday's action. And this is a big

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weekend again, You're gonna see a lot of movement day

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of the game. People are all from work, TV, games, drinking, betting,

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and betting syndicates. Wise, guys, sharps all know this money

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moves lines just as much as respect So when a

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lot of money gets bet and moves some of these

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lines out of whack, that's where you see a lot

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of that late steam come in. That's why I haven't

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released all that much. The market changes based on participants,

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and this week's participants are a little bit different than

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last week's. It's more like bull season kind of, so

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keep that in mind. Three sixteen under forty seven and

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a half, all the way down the under forty five

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Ohio versus Buffalo, then Mississippi, Mississippi State, they took the

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points plus eight and plus.

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Speaker 5: Seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: Haven't touched it at that key number seven three nineteen

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Iowa minus to five and a half and minus five

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and five and a half against Nebraska. Then three twenty

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four Kansas plus thirteen and a half, twelve and a half,

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all the way down to like eleven and a half.

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I think against Utah they laid the Georgia minus thirteen

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and a half against Georgia Tech, we talked about how

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Georgia Tech was phony.

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Speaker 5: Then Saturday, three thirty nine.

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Speaker 4: Florida State plus two plus one and a half plus

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one against Florida three forty one Texas Tech minus twenty

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one twenty two to twenty three. But at twenty four

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the West Virginia money started coming in. So that's one

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of those where there is resistance. UH three fifty three

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Kentucky plus four plus three and a half.

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Speaker 5: Haven't touched the key number.

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Speaker 4: Of three versus Louisville three fifty eight South Carolina minus

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two and two and a half. But Clemson at that

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key number of plus three that sticks out a lot

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three sixty one, Wake Farns plus three took the two

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and a half's out and took the one and a

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half's out as well versus Duke. That's your steam report

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for college football. That's the luck this weekend. A lot

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of money to be made out there throughout the entire weekend,

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for sure.

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Speaker 1: All right, guys, we're gonna see you on Saturday with

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VR going over some last minute steam. Maybe we can

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codify some of those as potential winners. Speaking of winners,

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this has been our best segment, not only in college

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football but in the NFL. And mainly that's my fault

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because the best bets in the NFL segment have sucks

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so bad. But my barking dogs have been really good.

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And I'm going back with the same dog that I

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went with last week, Marco. The only reason why is

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because Marco took one of my dogs and VR took

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the other one, and I can't really decide here on

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my three G money line parlay. Maybe Marco can get

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me to the window with the Hokies.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well, you know what, if you've been doing

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so good with your barking dogs and me and VRS.

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He'd taken ones you wanted. Shouldn't you be thanking us

241
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because where you're landing's winning. Ah tell you women, you

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can't ever make them happy?

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Speaker 5: All right, a problem, here's let.

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Speaker 2: Me let me just let me just say this, here's

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the problem.

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Speaker 1: If you will, I'm the host of the show, okay,

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and I want to showcase you guys as not only experts,

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but your talents and give you guys the best games

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to give to our audience. If I came on here

250
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and gave out the same barking dog as you, these

251
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people would riot Marco.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna lose their minds.

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Speaker 4: Now, m's more information. They want your opinion, it's more information.

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There's so much randomness. The show is kel I've had

255
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a winning year on shows and I've gotten buried in

256
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real life, and I've had a where I've gotten crushed

257
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on shows and had the best season. Like, there's a

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lot of randomness involved.

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Speaker 5: You know that it is.

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Speaker 1: And there's a lot of dogs barking every single weekend.

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That's why we love college football. Last week and I

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gave out two stingers of a dog, though I at

263
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least I didn't go ahead to.

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Speaker 2: Head with Marco. Okay, you guys, we're learning. This is

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called growth.

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Speaker 1: Marco, tell me why you like Virginia Tech and why

267
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I should be using them in my underdog parlay this week.

268
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Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, the beauty of rivalry week is, you know,

269
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sometimes you just throw the stats out because it's a

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different animal. Excuse the pun there being barking dog segment.

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But you know, some teams have everything to play for

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and some have nothing to play for other than spoiling

273
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their arch rival plans or if they're not going to

274
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a bowl game. You hear the phrase a lot of

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times this is their bowl game, this is their super Bowl.

276
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Well that's the case we have here. Virginia has everything

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to play for. They're trying to get to the ACC

278
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Championship game. Well, Virginia Tech will be home for the holidays,

279
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but Virginia Tech would like nothing better than to prevent

280
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their arch rival from going to the ACC Championship game. This,

281
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this is Virginia Tech's bowl game. And now that James

282
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Franklin has been announced as the head coach, now obviously

283
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he's not coaching here, but he's gonna be there. He'll

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be up in the press box watching this game. Any

285
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of the players that want to stick around and stay

286
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with this Virginia Tech program, They're gonna be playing hard

287
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:23,039
on Saturday because the new boss is watching and this

288
00:15:23,159 --> 00:15:26,919
is just too many points to lay with Virginia. Virginia's

289
00:15:26,919 --> 00:15:29,200
in a spot here where they need to win. And

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how often do you see teams sometimes when all they

291
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gotta do is win in their in they play not

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to lose instead of playing to win. And that's my

293
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,960
fear here. I think Virginia Tech takes this right down

294
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,759
to the wire. They've got nothing to lose in this game,

295
00:15:45,919 --> 00:15:48,480
so they can take some chances. Fourth and short, let's

296
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go for it. I'll take the Hokies and maybe they

297
00:15:51,879 --> 00:15:57,080
can pokey the old Virginia Cavaliers out of the ACC Championship.

298
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Take Virginia Tech plus the points and sitting at nine

299
00:16:00,759 --> 00:16:04,120
and a half, Kelly, I would wait till Saturday, till

300
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the public gets involved, because if we lose the half

301
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,000
a point to nine, what are we losing? But if

302
00:16:10,039 --> 00:16:12,720
we gain that half a point to ten, we're gaining

303
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:13,120
a lot.

304
00:16:13,799 --> 00:16:14,240
Speaker 2: All right.

305
00:16:14,399 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 1: That is some basic key number knowledge for you there

306
00:16:17,519 --> 00:16:20,480
in college football, the art speaking of key numbers. This

307
00:16:20,679 --> 00:16:24,559
team is sitting there on ten, and I have no

308
00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:28,440
idea why you're taking this team. I am completely flabberg acid.

309
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,759
I understand we're betting numbers, not teams. This team does

310
00:16:31,799 --> 00:16:34,600
not have a new head coach yet waiting in the wings.

311
00:16:34,639 --> 00:16:37,679
There's been some controversy, there's been lots of chatter, yet

312
00:16:38,159 --> 00:16:42,240
no pen to paper. Tell me why you think LSU

313
00:16:42,279 --> 00:16:42,919
can win this game?

314
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Speaker 2: Outright?

315
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:46,559
Speaker 4: And I'll say, between my dog and my best bet,

316
00:16:46,639 --> 00:16:50,080
like they're almost always the same for me, like unless

317
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,039
I say, like I didn't bet this one, I bet

318
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,799
that one. Just keep that in mind because I know,

319
00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,159
like in the NFL, like my dogs have done great,

320
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,879
the best bets haven't done that good. I think I'm

321
00:17:02,919 --> 00:17:05,359
like five and seven, but nine and two with the dogs.

322
00:17:05,519 --> 00:17:08,880
But overall, like it's profitable to me, like they're both

323
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:10,160
I weigh am kind of the same.

324
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Speaker 5: I know that you put the word best bet in

325
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front of it.

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00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,519
Speaker 4: But unless it like I say, this is like a

327
00:17:14,599 --> 00:17:16,559
four percent and that's a three percent that would make

328
00:17:16,559 --> 00:17:18,480
the difference in college football, that it will be the

329
00:17:18,519 --> 00:17:21,839
case because I actually changed it. I had another dog,

330
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,400
but I went here because the dog is now the

331
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:28,000
best bet. We'll get to that next. Here's why I

332
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,799
like lsu kel in this spot. There's a lot of

333
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,519
a recency bias around this.

334
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 5: Number One.

335
00:17:33,799 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 4: You have Oklahoma coming off big, big road wins. All right,

336
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,599
they beat Tennessee as dogs. They then they go to

337
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:48,680
Alabama on extra week rest, they beat Alabama as touchdown dogs. Outright,

338
00:17:48,759 --> 00:17:51,559
now they come home where if you look, they've played well,

339
00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:54,119
they've won four or five games, but they only covered

340
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,759
one of those, so that the books have done a

341
00:17:56,839 --> 00:18:00,000
really good job of pricing it. So it's been tough

342
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,920
to make money off of Oklahoma even though they've won

343
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,839
eight to ten games. If you bet them throughout the year.

344
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,519
I think with the big I don't even think you're profitable.

345
00:18:10,519 --> 00:18:13,119
And why I like the LSU side is because I

346
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,000
think they're a little bit undervalued.

347
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:16,039
Speaker 5: Here's what I mean.

348
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,519
Speaker 4: They're a six and four team and they had a

349
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rough golf it in their last game against an Arkansas team.

350
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,359
But as we touched on with Marco who had Arkansas,

351
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:30,000
Arkansas was a legit two win football team and LSU,

352
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,440
believe it or not, power rating wise, is still in

353
00:18:33,519 --> 00:18:39,039
my top twenty five. Oklahoma is ranked higher than they

354
00:18:39,079 --> 00:18:45,039
should be. Right now in the playoff rankings, they're number eight. Okay,

355
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:48,960
I have them at number sixteen, so I have them

356
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,599
a lot further back. And like I said, I have

357
00:18:51,759 --> 00:18:53,519
LSU in my top twenty five.

358
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 5: Here's why.

359
00:18:54,519 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 4: LSU had a top fifteen toughest strength of schedule, and

360
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:00,799
with that tough strength of schede, they.

361
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 5: Have a top fifteen defense.

362
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,200
Speaker 4: If you have a top fifteen team defense and you're

363
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,160
giving me double digits, I think they could stay in

364
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,839
the game, especially since Oklahoma's strength is their defense, like

365
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:13,720
it's not the.

366
00:19:13,599 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 5: Offensive side of the ball.

367
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 4: They're barely a top thirty five offense in efficiency. Now,

368
00:19:19,519 --> 00:19:22,559
granted they also had a really tough strength of schedule

369
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,680
top ten, but they are facing a legit defense once.

370
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:28,319
Speaker 5: Again this week.

371
00:19:28,519 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 4: So I don't think Oklahoma's going to have that easy

372
00:19:31,279 --> 00:19:34,519
of a time putting up points like you saw against Alabama.

373
00:19:34,559 --> 00:19:36,920
They put up twenty three against Tennessee. They put up

374
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,920
thirty three against Mississippi twenty six. If they put in

375
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,480
the twenties, I think LSU could cover. Can they win

376
00:19:43,599 --> 00:19:44,839
outright again?

377
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 5: I don't know.

378
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,640
Speaker 4: I felt that way about UCLA also, I don't know,

379
00:19:49,759 --> 00:19:51,640
And they got it done. If I'm betting at dog,

380
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,480
it's because I do think they could keep it close enough.

381
00:19:54,599 --> 00:19:57,880
So will I sprinkle Oklahoma Sure, probably for five percent

382
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:02,000
of my maybe ten at the most because we're running

383
00:20:02,039 --> 00:20:03,000
hot in college football.

384
00:20:03,559 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 5: But yeah, I'm gonna go with LSU.

385
00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 4: Like I said, I think power rating wise, we have

386
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:13,400
an advantage, and I think even with Oklahoma back at home,

387
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:19,319
I don't see them happen that dominance where they've covered

388
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,119
games there. So I'll take the points with LSU and

389
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:23,559
hope they could keep it within ten.

390
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 2: All right.

391
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,799
Speaker 1: And another team that everybody's gonna tell you is quit

392
00:20:27,839 --> 00:20:29,839
on their season, But I told you last week they

393
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:30,359
have not.

394
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State plus four to ten was so close.

395
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 1: They were up fourteen nothing in the balance house and

396
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:41,240
gave up seventeen unanswered and we cash the over two

397
00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:42,759
touchdowns so easily.

398
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 2: Now here they are at home.

399
00:20:44,519 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 1: Once again getting over two touchdowns. The Cyclones. Sure they

400
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,519
beat up on KU last week. Sure they beat k

401
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,519
Styton Dublin, But this Cyclones team two four and one

402
00:20:56,559 --> 00:20:58,960
against the spread and their last seven games, is a favorite.

403
00:21:00,039 --> 00:21:02,119
This is the most points they've been asked to lay

404
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,960
since Week three against Arkansas State. Oklahoma State has not

405
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,359
quit on their season. I told you guys that last week,

406
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,599
and I'm telling you guys this this week. They still

407
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,279
want to get an FBS win. They still want to

408
00:21:14,319 --> 00:21:17,480
play hard, and frankly, this is the best the team's

409
00:21:17,519 --> 00:21:20,960
looked all season long. By the way, the home team

410
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,519
has won each of the last four meetings in this series,

411
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,240
four of the last five of State under the total,

412
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,759
which bodes well for that double digit dog that is

413
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,200
the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Were running it back for a

414
00:21:34,319 --> 00:21:37,880
second straight week. All right, Marco, what else are we

415
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:38,640
gonna run back?

416
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,279
Speaker 2: The Deli?

417
00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: I certainly hope so, because the Delhi has been absolutely

418
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,480
crushing thirty seven and twenty two on the season.

419
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 2: Who is your trap game for this week?

420
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, And being the last week of the regular season,

421
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,480
obviously you don't got a lot of sandwich spots because

422
00:21:58,799 --> 00:22:01,319
teams aren't playing next week. But we do have some

423
00:22:01,559 --> 00:22:04,279
trap situations, and I think we got a big win

424
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:09,480
here with Jacksonville State in Western Kentucky. Now, both teams

425
00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:12,839
sit at six and one in a three way tie

426
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,400
a top conference USA, so obviously nobody's going to be

427
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:22,559
looking past either team. But here's where the problem comes in. Uh,

428
00:22:22,759 --> 00:22:29,920
you had Western Kentucky last week played LSU. Now they

429
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:34,279
went to LSU and regardless of LSU having a bad

430
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,119
year this year, that is a huge game for Western Kentucky.

431
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,519
What did they do as a twenty four and a

432
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:44,559
half point underdog. They only lost by three thirteen to ten,

433
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,240
gut wrenching loss for them. You also got to wonder

434
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,559
what in the world the Western Kentucky athletic director was

435
00:22:51,599 --> 00:22:55,319
doing scheduling a game like that this late in the season.

436
00:22:55,599 --> 00:22:58,920
Oh wait, I know why. I have one hundred one

437
00:22:59,039 --> 00:23:02,519
point eight million reasons why. That's what they were paid

438
00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:07,480
to go almost beat LSU last week. But here's the problem. Now,

439
00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:09,960
they got to come off that gut wrenching loss. They

440
00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:13,440
made a big step up in class obviously playing an

441
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:18,000
SEC school, more physical team, but even though they almost

442
00:23:18,039 --> 00:23:21,240
beat them, how much did it take out of the tank.

443
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,559
Now they're got to come back and play a Jacksonville

444
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,039
State team. You know what Jacksonville State does. They run

445
00:23:27,079 --> 00:23:29,240
the football down your throat. They're going to run the

446
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,559
football at them forty five plus times when you just

447
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,200
played a more physical team the week before, do you

448
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,519
want to play a team that's gonna come at you

449
00:23:39,039 --> 00:23:42,000
forty five plus times the next week and is averaging

450
00:23:42,039 --> 00:23:45,440
over two hundred and sixty yards per game on the ground.

451
00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:50,319
Jacksonville State's averaging thirty eight points per game at home

452
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,799
this season. It's senior day, You've got conference title on

453
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,599
the line. Yeah, I'm gonna take the home team here.

454
00:23:57,799 --> 00:24:03,440
Give me Jacksonville State thirty four seven. That's my trap

455
00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:07,200
game going against the Western Kentucky team.

456
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 2: Okay, it is time for best bets.

457
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,559
Speaker 1: And I don't know if I'm really supposed to tell

458
00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,319
the family secrets and what goes on prior to hitting

459
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,720
that record button. But VR would not stop talking about

460
00:24:17,759 --> 00:24:19,519
how much he loved this play.

461
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: So take that for what it's worth.

462
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:22,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, does that mean you're gonna give it to your

463
00:24:22,799 --> 00:24:25,359
clients or you just love it as a show, Like,

464
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,119
please elaborate because you said love Like, Yeah.

465
00:24:28,759 --> 00:24:30,759
Speaker 4: Here's what I did, cal, I gave it to my

466
00:24:31,039 --> 00:24:33,960
last week, I lost my five percent in college football. Okay,

467
00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:37,319
I had a losing week in college football, slightly losing week.

468
00:24:37,519 --> 00:24:39,680
So I've won ten of the thirteen weeks or eleven

469
00:24:39,759 --> 00:24:43,640
or fourteen, whatever it is. I'm up over one hundred units. Now,

470
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,079
I don't want My job is to help manage risk

471
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,920
for my subscribers as best as possible, so I don't

472
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,880
want them going crazy. But this week I have a

473
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,680
play that that warrants that kind of bet, and I

474
00:24:56,799 --> 00:25:00,119
placed it, I fired it. I sent out a four

475
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,119
per to my subscribers, and then I sent out a

476
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,279
one percent on the money line today, So it equals

477
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,359
like five percent, but not a five percent play in theory. Okay,

478
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,400
but I will have five percent worth of risk put

479
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,960
it that way, not full five percent of my bankro

480
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:23,720
I'm not suicidal, but yeah, a rating wise, And here's

481
00:25:23,759 --> 00:25:28,200
the bottom line it'll be. I say, like you should

482
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,920
never put too much stock in any one result, any

483
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:37,480
one game, anyone fight. We overreact, So I don't want

484
00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:40,559
this game to be the determining factor, but I think

485
00:25:40,599 --> 00:25:41,839
it'll play out that way.

486
00:25:42,039 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 5: And here's what I mean.

487
00:25:43,519 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 4: I've been talking about how Texas A and M is

488
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,039
an over ranked, over value team. They are not the

489
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,880
number three best college football team in the country. In fact,

490
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:58,200
that's Notre Dame. It's not them, it's Notre Dame. And

491
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,440
Notre Dame's right behind Indiana. Who's right behind Ohio State.

492
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,920
That's the bottom line. Power rating wise, A and M

493
00:26:07,839 --> 00:26:12,640
top fifteen at best at best at best. Here's the problem.

494
00:26:12,759 --> 00:26:16,079
Texas is a top ten and the wrong team's favored

495
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,279
in this game. You have Texas with the seventh toughest

496
00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:23,599
strength of schedule compared to the number fifteenth for Texas.

497
00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:25,559
A and M say they had a two x tougher

498
00:26:25,599 --> 00:26:30,119
strength of schedule, and yet they have the eleventh most

499
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:35,519
deficient defense versus the number twenty seventh most deficient defense.

500
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,799
And even though the A and M offense is a

501
00:26:39,839 --> 00:26:41,400
couple slots.

502
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,839
Speaker 5: Just a few slots above.

503
00:26:42,519 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 4: Them in offense to efficiency, it's because they've had a

504
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,920
two x easier schedule than Texas.

505
00:26:50,039 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 5: That's it.

506
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 4: Bottom line, wrong team is favored, and for me, that

507
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,759
warrants that kind of bet regardless of outcome. These are

508
00:27:01,759 --> 00:27:04,200
the kind of bets where I feel comfortable kick my

509
00:27:04,279 --> 00:27:06,599
feet off. I know I got the best of it,

510
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,119
and the fact that I got my subscribers down at

511
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,480
plus three with a little juice and now there's two's

512
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:15,880
out there tells me the market's starting to agree with me.

513
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,119
That's why I send it out at plus one ten

514
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,640
today with the instructions at plus one oh one are better.

515
00:27:21,839 --> 00:27:24,240
It's a bet because if you're giving me plus one

516
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,160
oh one on a coin flip, I'm gonna take it.

517
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,079
And this is no worse than a coin flip. There's

518
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,279
absolutely no reason that Texas should be an underdog. You

519
00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:35,799
could argue they shouldn't. Maybe they shouldn't be a favorite,

520
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,519
but they shouldn't be an underdog, and that tells me

521
00:27:38,799 --> 00:27:41,720
at worst, they're a coin flip. So if you're gonna

522
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:43,839
give me plus three plus two and a half, plus

523
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:45,759
two or plus one and a half on a coin flip,

524
00:27:45,759 --> 00:27:47,720
I'm taking it. You give me plus one oh one,

525
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,200
one oh five, one ten, one twenty, I'm taking it.

526
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,319
And the fact that X text A and M is

527
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:58,200
favored doesn't surprise me because it's based on the rankings

528
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,000
which have allowed us to win over one hundred units

529
00:28:01,039 --> 00:28:02,680
so far this year in college football.

530
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 5: So Saturday talk.

531
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 4: Before the game in the comments, let me know why

532
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,559
I'm wrong, because when Texas beats Texas A and M,

533
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,799
I don't want to hear I have anything personal about

534
00:28:12,839 --> 00:28:13,480
Texas A and M.

535
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 5: I could care less. It just happens.

536
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,519
Speaker 2: I'm not the third best team.

537
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: In the country to say to say, all right, Marco D'Angelo,

538
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:23,319
before you give us your best bat, let us know

539
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,799
what's going on over at wager talk dot com.

540
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: Oh, we've got a plethora of offers this week over

541
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,640
at wager talk, so head over to check them all out.

542
00:28:33,839 --> 00:28:36,319
Two of the more popular ones at well three, we

543
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,599
still have Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars. You can pick

544
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,799
up your favorite cap or Saturday and Sunday get all

545
00:28:41,839 --> 00:28:46,240
their football. Why spend forty nine dollars though for two days?

546
00:28:46,519 --> 00:28:49,200
When this week you can get seven days with our

547
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:54,920
Thanksgiving special, just six seven, sixty seven dollars. We'll get

548
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,640
you seven days this week. That is the best deal going.

549
00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:01,640
If you want to lock in your favorite capper for

550
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,720
the entire bowl season, you can pick up the final

551
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:10,000
week of the regular season, pick up the championship conference

552
00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:13,480
games next week, and all of the balls for one

553
00:29:13,519 --> 00:29:17,519
hundred and seventy nine dollars. Best deal, Take that seven

554
00:29:17,599 --> 00:29:20,119
day for sixty seven dollars, because you're not only gonna

555
00:29:20,119 --> 00:29:23,559
get football for seven days, You're gonna get basketball, college

556
00:29:23,559 --> 00:29:26,680
and pro. You're gonna get hockey, everything that's going on.

557
00:29:27,039 --> 00:29:30,039
If you have a capper that does some of the

558
00:29:30,079 --> 00:29:33,759
other sports, tennis, so forth, soccer, whatever, you get anything

559
00:29:34,039 --> 00:29:37,319
that happens from that capper in the next seven days,

560
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:42,039
including those five percent plays that sell for thirty five

561
00:29:42,079 --> 00:29:45,720
dollars by themselves. And speaking of five percent plays, yeah,

562
00:29:45,799 --> 00:29:48,640
I've got one going this week and we have been

563
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,480
on a roll. We hit our five percent last week

564
00:29:52,079 --> 00:29:56,359
with TCU outright winner as an underdog. Now thirty eight

565
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:01,079
and sixteen since February of twenty twenty four, sixty seven

566
00:30:01,119 --> 00:30:05,160
dollars get you seven days. My best bet This week, Kelly,

567
00:30:05,279 --> 00:30:09,480
We're going to a former Pac twelve matchup. It's now

568
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:13,240
in the Big ten and it's Washington and Oregon. Last

569
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,799
week we had a play on Oregon against USC and

570
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,200
you know that was pretty simple. Why well, because Oregon

571
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:26,079
was at home and Oregon was playing defense in USC

572
00:30:26,759 --> 00:30:29,759
that I felt wouldn't be able to stop Oregon. Now

573
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,079
the difference this week, well, Oregon's on the road and

574
00:30:33,119 --> 00:30:36,880
they're playing a team that does play defense in Washington.

575
00:30:37,519 --> 00:30:40,480
Washington has held seven of their eleven opponents to twenty

576
00:30:40,559 --> 00:30:44,000
one or fewer points this year. Only one team or

577
00:30:44,039 --> 00:30:47,720
excuse me, no one has scored over twenty five points.

578
00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:51,400
On them this year. Washington's not going to be intimidated

579
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,839
by Oregon, is I alluded to? These two former Pac

580
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,799
twelve teams know each other well. They've played four times

581
00:30:59,519 --> 00:31:04,039
since and three of the four games have been decided

582
00:31:04,039 --> 00:31:09,319
by three points. Washington's already Bowl eligible, so there's no

583
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:14,720
pressure on them. Oregon. Yeah, they're trying to secure their

584
00:31:14,759 --> 00:31:23,319
spot in the big playoff championship playoff formatt and looking

585
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:27,279
at this one, I think the pressure's all on them.

586
00:31:27,359 --> 00:31:29,720
I think Washington's the team that can take the chances

587
00:31:29,759 --> 00:31:32,559
at home, and I don't think this Oregon team is

588
00:31:32,599 --> 00:31:35,400
the same team on the road. Yeah. They went into

589
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,440
Penn State and beat Penn State earlier this year. The

590
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,799
game went to overtime. What did Penn State do since then? Well,

591
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,839
we know what happened to them. They had that horrible

592
00:31:43,839 --> 00:31:47,079
losing streak and fired James Franklin. They went on the

593
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,920
road to Iowa. What happened there? They escaped with a

594
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,480
two point victory. The only teams that they handled on

595
00:31:54,519 --> 00:31:58,039
the road were Northwestern and Rutgers, and those are not

596
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,559
good teams. I'm gonna go ahead. It's senior Day. Home

597
00:32:01,599 --> 00:32:05,920
crowd goes home happy, I'm calling at Washington twenty seven

598
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,799
to twenty four.

599
00:32:08,079 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is gonna probably be one of the legs

600
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,359
of my three team money line park.

601
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: Like al right here, already circle that I just wrote

602
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,359
Marco in parentheses.

603
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: Marco has been doing very well in college football.

604
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,319
Speaker 1: And I love when we agree a game that you

605
00:32:22,319 --> 00:32:24,200
guys probably aren't gona agree with me on here, and

606
00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:25,839
I don't really care. And it was tough for me

607
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,240
to find a best bet because well, I was celebrating

608
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,279
my birthday yesterday and we had a Thanksgiving show. By

609
00:32:30,279 --> 00:32:32,440
the way, if you haven't caught the Thanksgiving Show, it

610
00:32:32,519 --> 00:32:35,119
is up on the wager Talk YouTube channel of the

611
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,599
NFL show for Sunday and Monday will be up as well.

612
00:32:40,119 --> 00:32:43,759
Kansas State minus seventeen and a half. Here's the reality.

613
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,559
Kansas State should have probably won that game in Salt

614
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,920
Lake City last week, and if that was the case,

615
00:32:50,039 --> 00:32:54,160
I would not have been on them here. And they

616
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,240
had a heartbreaking loss, but they still need one game.

617
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: To become bull eligible.

618
00:32:58,559 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: Do these kids really care about going to a Liberty

619
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,359
Bowl or another game in Texas?

620
00:33:02,519 --> 00:33:03,599
Speaker 2: I sure as hell don't.

621
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: But the reality is is after that emotional press conference,

622
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,599
with Chris Cleman. Mini players spoke out and said, we

623
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,200
still want to play for this team, We still care.

624
00:33:13,759 --> 00:33:17,160
I got another text from a buddy who's we'll call

625
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,559
him a beat writer if you will, for Kansas State,

626
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,359
and he said they are effing pissed. And I don't

627
00:33:23,359 --> 00:33:25,920
know if I've ever heard him use language like that

628
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,079
when texting me prior. So those are the types of

629
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:32,519
we'll call it insight that I want to know when

630
00:33:32,559 --> 00:33:35,920
I'm laying this many points with the team, you've.

631
00:33:35,759 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 2: Got Colorado on the flip side.

632
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,119
Speaker 1: Coach Prime kind of joked in his press or, oh yeah,

633
00:33:40,119 --> 00:33:40,680
we want to play?

634
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,079
Speaker 2: Spoiler do they? They don't look like they want to

635
00:33:43,079 --> 00:33:43,759
play at all.

636
00:33:44,039 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: In fact, his son is now a starting quarterback for

637
00:33:46,559 --> 00:33:48,960
the Cleveland Browns, and I feel like he's got both

638
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,680
feet out the door. Look for k State to win

639
00:33:52,039 --> 00:33:55,640
big on Saturday. I'll do a marcoism here. I'm gonna

640
00:33:55,640 --> 00:34:00,759
call it forty four to ten spring back the guys,

641
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,720
and as I already alluded to, oh Marko.

642
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Kelly. I want to Kansas State give you

643
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,880
a present for your birthday. Hopefully they give you that,

644
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,320
but I want to tell listeners, yeah, it's a day late,

645
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,159
but get into the comment section like you did for me.

646
00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:20,280
Tell Kelly all caps, happy Kelly, Give Kelly some love,

647
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,599
Happy birthday, Kelly.

648
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:22,599
Speaker 2: Thank you guys.

649
00:34:22,639 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 4: I'm still a little bit confused for that sixty seven

650
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:26,119
dollars deal.

651
00:34:28,159 --> 00:34:30,679
Speaker 5: If I was okay nowhere ran that by me?

652
00:34:32,079 --> 00:34:37,079
Speaker 6: I guess that's you're not jumping on board for sixty

653
00:34:37,119 --> 00:34:39,960
seven bucks, will be that's the IQ test this week.

654
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: I can't with you, guys.

655
00:34:41,559 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 1: Marco's grandchild finally explain to him what six seven means

656
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,039
and now he wants to use it and all of

657
00:34:47,079 --> 00:34:49,280
our sales promo to boost the algorithm.

658
00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 2: Well, like you said, guys, jump in the comments.

659
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:54,119
Speaker 1: Agree with us, disagree with us. Want to tell me

660
00:34:54,199 --> 00:34:55,400
that you hate me, you want to tell me that

661
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,119
you love me? I don't care, but we appreciate you

662
00:34:58,159 --> 00:35:00,719
guys taking the time to watch. If you guys are

663
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,320
looking for that NFL show, you guys know where you

664
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,159
can catch it right here on the Wager Talking YouTube

665
00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:08,960
channel Mega Show. And also if you missed it, that

666
00:35:09,039 --> 00:35:10,559
Thanksgiving special is up as well.