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Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, guys. Welcome into puck Time on wager Talk TV.

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I am Andrew McGuinness. I've got Carmine with me as always,

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mister carmin Bianco, don Buster will join us, of course,

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and of course we're gonna have Brian Leonard as well

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as it's a jam pack show. And you know how

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it is with the new format, busy slate in the

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NHL means a busy day on puck time. I can't

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speak for all of you, but I am in bounce

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back mode today. Utah didn't get it done in that

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first period, play slight, slight profit or break even. I'd

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say with the props did like a little bit of

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the side of Chicago. Didn't have it in me to

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get there, and man oh man, did they play well.

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But car nothing wrong with bounce back mode when you

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have a huge slate like we do today here on Thursday.

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And I got to give you credit because you did

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call the Buffalo Sabers getting their first win of the

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season yesterday.

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Speaker 2: I liked the over in that one.

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Speaker 1: But I was just scared to give it out and

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to bet that because I was like, men, if they

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get their first win, they could lock things down defensively.

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I figured when they'd get their first win though, it

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would absolutely explode, and it's exactly what we saw.

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Speaker 2: Karl.

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Speaker 1: Are they gonna save some goals for other games though,

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or did they waste all their goals?

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Speaker 3: Andrew? You know, I feel so bad and welcome to

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everyone in the chat and our new wager Talk insider members. Andrew,

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I feel bad for some of my friends because they

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watched the show and they went with the Sabers winning,

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but they turned it into a parlay and they took

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Tage Thompson to score. My men and fellow Bill's mafia Garnett.

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He took Tage Thompson's to score along with the Sabers.

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And you would think Buffalo scoring eight goals, Tage is

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gonna get on the board and score a goal. No

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he didn't. Not one of the eight goals was scored

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by uh Tge Thompson. Hard to believe. But guys, we

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have a great show today. We're gonna cover Colorado Columbus's

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five games for you guys. Colorado, Columbus, Carolina, Anheim, Toronto,

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New York Rangers, Nashville, Montreal, Vegas, and Boston. We're gonna

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have our pod play and then try and answer a

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few questions as well too. The pod didn't get there,

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man Utah the Mammoth. Yesterday six power plays did not

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score a single power play goal, ended up with winning

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three to one. It doesn't get there, But I have

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a pod play to make up for today, hopefully, Andrew

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back to you, man, who what are we talking about? First?

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Speaker 1: Here, let's dive in Blue Jackets and Avalanche here, Carmine

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and looking at this matchup, both teams well rested, Both

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teams have not been in action since Monday night. Here

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in this Blue Jackets team, you know, they're a team

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I think that people are going to sleep on this year.

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They've got some talent and I think Carill Marchenko and

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some of those goal scorers on that team might be

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some of the most slept on players on the in

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this league. And Adam Fantildy, Cole Cyllinger, Kent Johnston not

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a bad team by any means. And of course they

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have some depth, you know, with Charlie Coyle and Boone

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Jenner the captain there. So curious to see how they're

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going to face off against this Avalanche team. Looking at

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the numbers in this one, though, we're seeing around minus

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one fifty five one sixty as the average price for

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the visiting team here, Carmen. And you know, when you

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look at the last couple of meetings between these teams,

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we've seen goals, but we've also seen, you know, some

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success from this Avalanche team, or this Columbus Blue Jackets

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team as well. They're they're two and one the last

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three games against this Avalanche team, but in all three

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games they have scored at least three goals. You know,

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we've seen the Avalanche have a lot of success so

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far this season. And besides that hiccup they had against

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the Dallas Stars, and and Dallas is a really really

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talented team and Miko Ranton and just put the dagger

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in them, and it's always about those story lines. He

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put that shootout winner. And this team's had kind of

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a smooth sailing start, you know, four to one, two

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to one, three to one, and of.

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Speaker 2: Course that five to four loss.

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Speaker 1: But when you go from playing a Buffalo Sabers team

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that at the time was struggling to score goals, then

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you have that rest up, they haven't really been challenged.

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You go and play a Blue Jackets team, this team

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could be a live dog, and you know me, I

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hate fading the Avalanche. This is a team that I love,

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that has so much talent. I think there's value tonight

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on the Blue Jackets, whether you're back in them first period,

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whether you want to take them over two and a

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half goals, or whether you have it in you to

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take the full game money line.

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Speaker 2: Similar to what.

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Speaker 1: We saw with the Blackhawks yesterday against the Saint Louis Blues,

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I kind of feel the same way in this one.

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It does kind of worry me that both teams have

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the same rest. I'd kind of like here for Columbus

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to have the rest advantage. But yeah, I do think

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that we're going to see Columbus get off to a

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good start here. And you know, Caren a lot of

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times when I talk on the show and I give

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out team totals, as you know, I'm just talking about

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team total overs. But if there's one way we could

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explore this as well, because we do have such big

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favorites for Colorado, we could also look at them under

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three and a half goals themselves. But I'm targeting a

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competitive game. I think Columbus certainly battles in this one

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and I think that based on the price, I think

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that we're seeing Columbus be a little bit disrespected here.

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So both teams rested carm What do you think.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Andrew, you know, it's funny that you talk about

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getting off to like good starts and stuff last season,

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and I'm just trying to bring it up right now.

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The Colorado last season, in the opening twenty minutes of

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the game had one of the top three worst numbers.

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And it's just surprising because you look at the teams

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that finished first and second as far as the worst

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units in the first period. Carolina Hurricanes twenty six of

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their eighty one or eighty two games that held the

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lead after twenty minutes thirty one times, they trailed twenty

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five times they were tied. Colorado Edmonton a second. But

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we won't go over the numbers. Colorado of eighty one games,

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they only had to lead after twenty minutes in twenty

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five games, thirty one times they trailed, twenty six times

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they were tied. If you bet against Colorado on the

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money line, you were up units. They were down twenty

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twenty units Andrew twenty units on the season for Colorado.

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As far as first period plays. I want to go

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one step further, but in a different direction as far

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as this one goes Andrew, and that's looking at the

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first period over. It's just because Columbus last season at

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home were a very good team top three with the

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overs in the first period twenty eight and thirteen last season,

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one of the most profitable teams when taking first period overs.

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In the first period over in this game, with a

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total of six and a half, you would expect the

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first period over to be one and a half and

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about one sixty big. It is not. It is one

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thirty five is the consensus number right now. You can

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there's some one forties, but there's also some one thirties.

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The consensus number is one thirty five right now. That's

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where I want to go on this one. You know,

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I took the Columbus over in their last game at home.

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It did not go over the total. I'm not they

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were one of the most profitable teams overall last year

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as far as homeovers, they were very entertaining. I'm not

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ready to give up on a team after one loss,

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especially with that trend last season. So give me the

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first period over Andrew minus one thirty five between these two.

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Let's hope for a quick start and then I can

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switch it over to another game.

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Speaker 2: The first periods are the best, the first period of

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the best.

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Speaker 1: Let's get a quick start from both teams, and you

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know we're gonna find out, I think really early, karm

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if the rest advantage is it's going to help them

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defensively or if it's going to help them offensively. I

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think we're going to be able to tell right away

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based on the pace of play between those two teams.

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But a lot of talent out there, a lot of

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talent out there could be a good player props game

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as well. I'm hoping the Columbus can battle theo I'm

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hoping that Columbus can fight their way in this game.

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And you know, there's there's some days you wake up

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and you like the dogs, and some days you wake

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up and you like the favorites. And maybe it's because

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I have a chip on my shoulder because I never

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got to the window with that Chicago game last night.

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So I'm I'm searching for a dog today. But I

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do think we're gonna see some real competitive games here today, Carmen.

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If you look at the overnight numbers, some people don't

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take into account sharp action as much.

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Speaker 2: With hockey.

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Speaker 1: You can look at overnight moves a little bit. There

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are a lot of dogs that took money overnight tonight.

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Here karma are going into today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there is Listen, hockey is like any other sport.

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Andrew Sharps will get in if they get the right number.

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They're not betting teams, they're betting numbers and they're going

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to grab the best price. Which is why honestly I'm

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gonna hard up on this all season long. But having

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something like Odds Logic where you can you can look

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at two or three of the sharp books and and

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you know, Brian Lennard, who's going to be on the

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show a little later on, talked about it. I talked

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about one of the books on there, which is War.

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You have the other one for one one, you have Pinnacle,

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you have Circa. I think as far as those four books,

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and you know Brian touched on the Pinnacle one. Maybe

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it's not a book that takes a lot of sharp action,

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but there are books out there, whether they're offshores, that

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do take plenty of sharp action. And if you're getting

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but if you're getting offered the best price at one

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of these books, you have to think twice about it.

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So that's where that whole fishy line thing comes in.

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And I saw a lot of people in the chat

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yesterday talking about how that a Buffalo game looked like

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a fishy line yesterday with the Bills, Bills, God damn Bills.

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It was especially good about the Bills. With the Sabers,

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it was a fishy number. And and wow, eight goals

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by the Sabers in that one. But Andrew, we got

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plenty to go here, and we got to bring in.

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I was ready to ship him back to Mexico if

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the Blue Jays loss last night, because I thought maybe

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him being in Canada was bad luck. But here he

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is none other than and are you wearing the Indiana shirt?

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Have you even left the couch? Since? No?

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Speaker 4: Actually this is a beautiful Saratoga shirt. Okay, Serato in

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New York one of my favorite spots that I frequent

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every year.

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Speaker 5: And yes, they actually.

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Speaker 3: Andrew and I, Andrew, and I appreciate you going there

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and not sending one to Dan myself and Andrew, but

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thank you anyways, Buster, Hope all is well for you.

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You've got a great promo going on right now before

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you get into your game. Two weeks of NHL for

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ninety nine dollars. That's an absolutely fantastic deal. I hope

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I got that correct. But you're going to look at

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the Carolina Hurricanes and the Anaheim Ducks, two teams that

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the game should be. This game should be sponsored by

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pepsid Ac because both these teams give me harpburn all

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year long. Where are you going with this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Carlin, Yeah, Carolina is here and they're on the

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second game of a six game road trip at the

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start of the season. This club seems to be on

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a bit of a mission right from the start, winning

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all three games, and they're looking dangerous and really offensive

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for Carolina club, and that might.

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Speaker 5: Be just what they need to do to maybe get

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to that Cup this year.

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Speaker 4: They're gonna even be better once their power play gets better,

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because their power play has been terrible so far, so.

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Speaker 5: That that's going to help them at all.

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Speaker 4: This is a game that I think Carolina will really

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want because the opponents in the next four games, geez,

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they're tough. They go to La then to Vegas, then

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to Colorado, and then they finish off with Dallas.

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Speaker 5: I'm not too.

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Speaker 4: Sure who the Carolina front off is pissed off over

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there with the schedulers or something. But I'm telling you

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that's a brutal schedule on the road to start the season. Now,

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I know you got to go through those things, but

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it's a.

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Speaker 5: Sixth game, you know, real, really tough sometimes they break

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that up. For these teams.

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Speaker 4: As ra Anaheim, they seem like they're gonna be a

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lot of fun to watch. Like Carlin, you might have

246
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mentioned both they giving you a little heartburn there. I

247
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tell you they will be. They're really fun to watch

248
00:12:40,799 --> 00:12:44,399
so far, and they just play. They play offensive hockey.

249
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They're all offensive, and I really think they have a

250
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,559
chance if they they'll tighten that up a little bit

251
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go moving forward. I think they have a good chance

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for a playoff spot this year, or at least to

253
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fight for a playoff spot this season. One big problem

254
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I've noticed, and I'm sure you guys have as well.

255
00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:06,080
They're very, very sloppy. They give the puck up a lot.

256
00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:09,200
I know you guys had one of your bank roll

257
00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,919
games or something. What the car what Carmine is doing

258
00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:15,000
the other night that Anaheim did win, But everybody that

259
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watched that game. I tell you they they gave up

260
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a puck a lot. That game could have been seven

261
00:13:20,279 --> 00:13:22,720
to six, just as well as four to three. But

262
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there's no doubt I think Anaheim is a live dog here.

263
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But because of the situation with Carolina and I think

264
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they really need to win this one, here's a problem.

265
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I can't lay one eighty five or one ninety with

266
00:13:39,639 --> 00:13:43,559
Carolina on the money line, and I think they're one

267
00:13:43,799 --> 00:13:45,000
thirty in regulation.

268
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Speaker 5: And like I said, I it's gonna be a close game.

269
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,519
Speaker 4: I really believe it's gonna be a close game, and

270
00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:54,080
I really don't want my money on the side here.

271
00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:58,080
So what we will play. We actually already gave out

272
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,039
the over to our clients. The over was six over

273
00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,840
twenty last early this morning, last night, and that number

274
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,320
has gone up, but now it's at six and a

275
00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:10,440
half minus twenty two.

276
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Speaker 5: And you can find that DK and fand over.

277
00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,519
Speaker 4: A lot of our clients do play. They're six and

278
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a half under twenty two.

279
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 5: We wouldn't make a smaller play at six and a half.

280
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Speaker 4: But the beauty of watching this show at eleven o'clock

281
00:14:26,039 --> 00:14:28,279
Eastern time is that you can wait.

282
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 5: And I suggest you do that to get that six

283
00:14:31,159 --> 00:14:35,559
over twenty and make the play at six. Now, both

284
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,440
clubs have been scoring, have been really scoring machines. If

285
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:39,120
you look at it.

286
00:14:39,559 --> 00:14:43,039
Speaker 4: Caroline's averaged five goals a game and the Ducks they've

287
00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:45,799
scored eleven goals in their last couple of games. And

288
00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,159
like I said, you just watching that team play, it

289
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,639
was up and down the ice the other night with Pittsburgh,

290
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:56,039
that's for sure. Now when these teams get together, not

291
00:14:56,159 --> 00:14:59,519
bad at all. The over has been five of the

292
00:14:59,639 --> 00:15:02,960
last on him. Now let's go to Anaheim. The overs

293
00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:07,080
four of the last five in Anaheim between these clubs. Now,

294
00:15:07,919 --> 00:15:10,320
like I say, I think Carolinas took a new philosophy

295
00:15:10,399 --> 00:15:10,960
this season.

296
00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 5: Then they're just gonna play out more offensive.

297
00:15:13,639 --> 00:15:16,080
Speaker 4: They're not gonna it doesn't seem like they're caring as

298
00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:19,480
much as the defense. And Anderson hasn't helped much lately

299
00:15:19,519 --> 00:15:21,159
either because he's been a net.

300
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 5: I think he's allowed six goals in the two games.

301
00:15:23,919 --> 00:15:27,080
Speaker 4: He's played, and not many shots maybe forty forty five shots.

302
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,720
So he's struggled to start. And like I said, I

303
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:36,159
had mentioned earlier, the power play on Carolina has really struggled.

304
00:15:36,679 --> 00:15:37,759
Speaker 5: But who better to.

305
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,320
Speaker 4: Play than the Anaheim Ducks because Anaheim has one of

306
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,399
the worst penalty kills around, so they might be just

307
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,960
whether doctor order for Carolina gets some power play goals

308
00:15:49,759 --> 00:15:53,039
and Anaheim talking about special teams. Their power play has

309
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,519
been unbelievable. Just watch them play. It's been really good.

310
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,360
They're the second best team in the NHL in this

311
00:16:00,799 --> 00:16:04,960
early part of the season. So I suggest that everyone

312
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,960
watch the game, do not play the side and bet

313
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:09,480
the over.

314
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,559
Speaker 3: Buster. And I know Andrew's got to follow up for you,

315
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:15,639
but I'm just going to make something quick here, you know.

316
00:16:15,799 --> 00:16:17,120
You know, I look at the game and I see

317
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,279
the price on Carolina one four. I've watched I think

318
00:16:20,279 --> 00:16:22,279
three of the Duck games, which doesn't happen. I don't

319
00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:25,159
think I watched three of the Duck games all last season, Andrew.

320
00:16:25,559 --> 00:16:28,039
But you know the funny thing here is that, you know,

321
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,399
I know they're going to get better, the Ducks. I

322
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:36,759
was surprised when one guy on TV there picked them

323
00:16:36,799 --> 00:16:39,120
to make the playoffs this season. I don't think they're

324
00:16:39,159 --> 00:16:42,679
that good as of yet. I think that this they're

325
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,080
a team that's eventually going to get there. Under Joe

326
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,919
Quinville and get better, but this early on, you cannot

327
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,879
keep giving teams two goal leads and expect to come back.

328
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,799
Giving up a two goal lead to the Sharks and

329
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,679
coming back is one thing. Giving it up to the

330
00:16:56,679 --> 00:16:58,879
Penguins and coming back. You give up a two goal

331
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,279
lead to the Carolina Hurricanes tonight and you're done and dusted.

332
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,000
So I just I can't bring myself to bet the

333
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,640
dog in this game. I'd have to be Carolina regulation

334
00:17:09,839 --> 00:17:12,759
or even Carolina on the money line and tied it

335
00:17:12,799 --> 00:17:15,839
into something else if you really have to. Andrew Thoughts

336
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:16,880
follow up.

337
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:19,880
Speaker 1: Well, I was gonna ask, like, this is a collective

338
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,559
question for both of you guys, really, like you know

339
00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:25,359
how in the in the NFL, like Ralph Michaels was

340
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,559
coming out with those charts after week two, like oh

341
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:33,200
and two teams ats versus you know, you know, teams

342
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,160
that are off to a good start or you know

343
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,240
how they are awful lot, How are we handicapping three

344
00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:42,720
and oh teams so far or undefeated teams so far?

345
00:17:43,039 --> 00:17:45,519
Or does it matter? Is it all circumstantial? Is that

346
00:17:45,759 --> 00:17:47,400
overthinking it? What do you what do you guys think?

347
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:48,319
Speaker 2: Buster Like?

348
00:17:48,599 --> 00:17:50,920
Speaker 1: Is it overthinking it? To look at because you talked

349
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:52,839
about they're gonna want to win this one because of

350
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,200
the games they have coming up. And I know people

351
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,640
got to take Anaheim more serious now, but they're three

352
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,680
in oh And as we just saw with the Buffalo Sabers,

353
00:18:02,759 --> 00:18:05,880
even they can even they can score seven goals sometimes.

354
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,400
So is Carolina going to be able to stay dialed

355
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:10,680
in for four straight games?

356
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:13,880
Speaker 5: Well, like I say, I don't think. I don't know.

357
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:15,759
Speaker 4: I don't think they are, but I know the competition

358
00:18:15,839 --> 00:18:18,519
is gonna get awfully tough on them. So that's why

359
00:18:18,559 --> 00:18:21,000
I'm saying, I think you can look I don't think

360
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,160
you overthink this because I think you can look ahead,

361
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:24,240
and they probably are.

362
00:18:24,279 --> 00:18:27,160
Speaker 5: They knew when they got you know, left Carolina, when

363
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,839
they left Rawley, they knew that we've got six games. Okay,

364
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,839
we get the two easy ones first. We need to

365
00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:35,359
win those two easy ones.

366
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 4: Because the other four not that they can't win them,

367
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,960
but you're on the road, and the road gets long,

368
00:18:40,039 --> 00:18:41,079
and it's early.

369
00:18:40,839 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 5: In the season.

370
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 4: So I always you know me, Andrew, I'm a situational

371
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,759
guy as well, So when I see a situation.

372
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,880
Speaker 5: Like that, I'm probably with Carmine. I would bet Carolina tonight.

373
00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 4: But you know what, the Anaheim team, they've just they've

374
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,880
been they've been playing well, they've been just they've got

375
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,759
I love scrappy teams, just like our Montreal Canadians, Andrew.

376
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,160
I love a scrappy team because that shows heart and

377
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,920
I'm always about heart on the NHL, and you know,

378
00:19:10,079 --> 00:19:13,720
guys getting in those corners, taking those shots, stuff like that.

379
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:19,799
So that's why I just stay away from the side here.

380
00:19:19,839 --> 00:19:22,759
Speaker 5: But I think you're gonna see because the way Caroline

381
00:19:22,799 --> 00:19:23,720
has been playing this year.

382
00:19:23,599 --> 00:19:26,079
Speaker 4: They're not playing that as defense as they normally do,

383
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,680
and Anaheim is just gonna they go up and down

384
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,160
the ice. They've got lots of guys with speed. So

385
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,319
to answer your question, I would say, Andrew, you have

386
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,079
to look at the situation.

387
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 5: At all times.

388
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, And one quick, one final thought Andrew on this,

389
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,279
And I know buster you mentioned that they're not playing

390
00:19:45,279 --> 00:19:46,920
the greatest defense right now. If you go back and

391
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,559
look at Carolina's games at the beginning of last season,

392
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,119
there were a lot of high scoring games. I think

393
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,160
last year as a collective, you looked at the Minnesota Wild,

394
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,559
the team that played very good defense, and there were

395
00:19:58,559 --> 00:20:03,759
some seven to six, six nothing, seven nothing games early

396
00:20:03,799 --> 00:20:06,480
on in their season, so teams will eventually buckle down.

397
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,440
That has a lot to do with preseason. You know,

398
00:20:09,519 --> 00:20:11,640
a preseason, we're not seeing all the players, all the

399
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,880
lines together. They're moving guys in and out, so it

400
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,000
isn't a proper preseason. It's kind of like the NFL.

401
00:20:19,319 --> 00:20:22,759
Sometimes they'll take a team a couple of weeks to

402
00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:25,160
get going. In the NFL, that matters more because it's

403
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,440
only a seventeen game schedule as opposed to an eighty

404
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:31,279
two game schedule here, so teams can drop points. But Buster,

405
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,000
what do you have about at wager talk before we

406
00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:33,480
let you go?

407
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,599
Speaker 4: I the Major League Baseball playoffs are still going, and

408
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,599
I do have a four percent best bet. Had one

409
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:46,720
last night, got a nice easy win, so have another

410
00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:49,720
one up. It's only nine dollars and we're hitting seventy

411
00:20:49,759 --> 00:20:52,880
three percent with those sixteen and six over the last

412
00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:55,480
twenty two so I know this is a hockey show,

413
00:20:55,519 --> 00:20:58,119
but I've got the best bet up there. People that

414
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,799
bought my package, a ninety nine dollars package, they'll be

415
00:21:00,799 --> 00:21:05,680
getting my hockey for the next few little days for sure.

416
00:21:05,759 --> 00:21:09,880
Unless I have some hockey packages with college football, with

417
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,279
NFL stuff like that. So as you said, I appreciate

418
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,519
Carmine ahead of time. There ninety nine dollars for two

419
00:21:16,599 --> 00:21:19,480
weeks of ball our plays and that includes any five

420
00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:22,440
percent that will be putting out, and I do have

421
00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:24,519
one mark for next week.

422
00:21:24,599 --> 00:21:27,559
Speaker 5: But it all depend on the numbers. As you guys know,

423
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,640
I do mark my five percents.

424
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 4: I have some already marked for January as long as

425
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,039
you get the number.

426
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,519
Speaker 3: So all right, now it's done. Don Yeah, okay, Don Buster,

427
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,440
thanks for coming on. Yeah, we thanks for having me.

428
00:21:40,519 --> 00:21:40,799
Speaker 5: Guys.

429
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,839
Speaker 3: We got a lot still to cover if the Blue

430
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,000
Jays come back and win that series. The only way

431
00:21:46,039 --> 00:21:48,440
I'm being in Buster back on Pluck time is if

432
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,880
he shaves his beard, leaves his mustache uses just Forerman

433
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,519
dies it black and looks like Davis Schneider of the

434
00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:59,640
Blue Jays. Davis, speaking of Toronto teams, Andrew the Leaves

435
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,880
minus the New York Rangers plus one twenty five total

436
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,640
sits here at six. I'm gonna throw a quick hot takeout.

437
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,160
The Leafs did what they needed to do in that

438
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,640
game against Nashville after losing a couple of games to Detroit,

439
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,680
even though they outshot them badly in the game. In Toronto,

440
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:23,240
they got a Nashville team that came in, uh started

441
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:27,400
their backup goalie and Enelin. But they're going to face

442
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,920
the Stirk in tonight. These two teams played some tough

443
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,920
games last year and some close ones over the last

444
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,000
couple of years. I think, even though they can't score

445
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:39,559
at home, that the Rangers are a live dog here

446
00:22:39,559 --> 00:22:42,039
at plus one twenty five. And that's what I'm taking.

447
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,079
Speaker 1: Carm You know, it almost bothers me that this is

448
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,599
one that I didn't end up playing overnight, because, uh,

449
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:50,920
you know, we're seeing the movement. I mean, if you

450
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,799
look at odds logic right now at the opener versus

451
00:22:53,799 --> 00:22:57,680
the current number, it's currently definitely been hit. And if

452
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,279
you want to look at it, as you mentioned, Karen,

453
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,720
the struggle for this Rangers team specifically has come at

454
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,000
home with some of those shutouts for them being at

455
00:23:06,039 --> 00:23:09,160
home and on home ice. So I was talking about

456
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,799
this on my show last night, like it's one of

457
00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:14,519
those frustrating things because you know, I had the first

458
00:23:14,559 --> 00:23:17,359
period over in both of those times where they were

459
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,720
off a shutout, you know, first time it was off

460
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,400
the shutout against Pittsburgh. The second time it was off

461
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,839
being shut out against Washington, and then they got shut

462
00:23:26,839 --> 00:23:31,599
out again. And I never ran these numbers by Ralph Michaels,

463
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:36,720
But you have to think that the sense of urgency

464
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,079
not only being off one shutout, but being off a

465
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:46,079
shutout twice two games in a row, is crazy, carm

466
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,960
for a team to be able to do that and

467
00:23:49,039 --> 00:23:51,839
to you know, not be able to produce and be

468
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,319
productive that way. And now here's the thing is that

469
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,960
when you look at the expected goals for albeit they've

470
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,519
played five games teas and many teams have played three

471
00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:05,440
or four, so it might not mean too much, but

472
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,319
they're still up there at the top of the league

473
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,920
in expected goals. And I know there's gonna be a

474
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:11,720
crowd of people that will say this, and I know

475
00:24:11,799 --> 00:24:14,240
you want to talk about this today, Karm where people

476
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,119
will say it doesn't matter, you have to get the goals,

477
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,119
and I agree with you.

478
00:24:18,519 --> 00:24:20,799
Speaker 2: The final result is what matters. You know.

479
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,839
Speaker 1: I was telling Leaf fans when they lost to Toronto

480
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,839
and they outshot them forty five to fifteen.

481
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 2: Who cares how many shots you got.

482
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,799
Speaker 1: You still lost At the end of the day, though

483
00:24:29,799 --> 00:24:33,759
this Rangers team is not playing as poorly as their

484
00:24:33,839 --> 00:24:39,079
numbers indicate. This Toronto team, however, they're still not going

485
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,279
to be happy about how they've played this year. I

486
00:24:41,319 --> 00:24:44,160
don't think you know they're not going to be satisfied

487
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,720
with how they've played. They dropped those two games against

488
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,680
the Red Wings, and then they absolutely slapped around the

489
00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:53,200
Nashville Predators a game. As you said, Karm, they should

490
00:24:53,279 --> 00:24:56,160
have won. But I like New York as well. I

491
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:57,799
think they're going to get the job done. I think

492
00:24:57,839 --> 00:25:01,720
the first period is the play, and Karm, I'm putting

493
00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:05,160
myself out there on puck time. I'm labeling it right now.

494
00:25:05,279 --> 00:25:07,240
You guys are gonna hear this with me right now.

495
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,000
If the first period or full game over does not

496
00:25:12,079 --> 00:25:16,079
hit in this game, specifically the first period, you will

497
00:25:16,079 --> 00:25:18,680
not catch me take a first period play involving the

498
00:25:18,759 --> 00:25:22,480
Rangers until twenty twenty six. I'm putting myself out there

499
00:25:22,559 --> 00:25:25,039
right now with that. You guys in the comments all

500
00:25:25,079 --> 00:25:28,680
heard it because I already know what's gonna happen. If

501
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,000
I don't play the first period over in this game,

502
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,920
it's gonna hit in the first six minutes of the

503
00:25:34,039 --> 00:25:34,839
of the hockey game.

504
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: So I feel like.

505
00:25:36,319 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: I'm already I'm already looped into it because I've taken

506
00:25:40,039 --> 00:25:44,079
it already twice with this Rangers team this season. But

507
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,240
we're gonna go with that. But I do lean towards

508
00:25:46,279 --> 00:25:50,200
the Rangers as well. You know this, this leaves team karms.

509
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,559
I do have depth, but I do worry about their

510
00:25:52,599 --> 00:25:55,680
scoring because I put I put that that tweet up

511
00:25:55,799 --> 00:25:57,880
yesterday that we were kind of laughing at about how

512
00:25:58,079 --> 00:26:01,400
mrner or Kneelander and Matt Youse have four empty net

513
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,319
goals and only one real goal. But you know that

514
00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:06,680
they're like a volcano. They could erupt at any moment.

515
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,759
We just have to hope that New York contains them.

516
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,480
So lean to New York for me. And we got

517
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:13,440
to go right back to the first period over.

518
00:26:15,319 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 3: Oh, no more plays. My head just went, no more

519
00:26:19,039 --> 00:26:25,440
Rangers plays, No more Rangers plays. You can't be. You

520
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,319
can't be what's the word I'm looking for. You can't

521
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:32,079
just look at one game and and give up after

522
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,960
one game. If you did, it'd be the wrong way

523
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,319
to handicap. And you just keep on going euro up

524
00:26:38,599 --> 00:26:42,559
multiple units on the season. I'm coming for you. Man

525
00:26:43,799 --> 00:26:47,680
winning night last night with the a Red Wings plus

526
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,880
money had a good spot against the Florida Panthers, so

527
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,839
we got there. I've got an underdog on today's card,

528
00:26:54,839 --> 00:26:59,000
which is up at wager Talk as well too, Andrew. Okay,

529
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,519
so we've talked about this at least Rangers one. We're

530
00:27:02,519 --> 00:27:06,880
gonna go to Brian in just a second once he is.

531
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,519
Brian around yet. He should be logging in soon, I hope.

532
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,799
But the last four games between these two teams in Toronto,

533
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,319
the Rangers have won two of the four games by five,

534
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,519
two and four to one score lines, and the other

535
00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:26,839
two games went to ot Andrew, so that tells me

536
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,720
that the Rangers at the very least give them a

537
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:35,079
hard time in those games. Now we're waiting on Brian

538
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,400
Leonard when he pops in, and there he is, I

539
00:27:37,519 --> 00:27:41,319
see him popping ino. He was probably he was combing

540
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,720
his hair. He was combing his hair, Brian Leonard when

541
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,240
he pops in. Sorry about that guy.

542
00:27:47,319 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 2: He was watching the show. He was watching watching.

543
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 6: The show, and I thought I was in and I

544
00:27:52,279 --> 00:27:56,359
realized it was on the Baseball Show, so nobody let

545
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:56,559
me in.

546
00:27:57,279 --> 00:28:00,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, did you did you play on the Life did

547
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:01,960
you click on the lake button while you were there?

548
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:03,480
We really appreciate it.

549
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,799
Speaker 6: Of course I was going to comment about the good

550
00:28:05,839 --> 00:28:07,799
looking house, but I figured i'd wait until I get

551
00:28:07,799 --> 00:28:08,240
on first.

552
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: Well, there you're going.

553
00:28:09,599 --> 00:28:11,799
Speaker 2: You got to bring it on. You're adding to it, Brian.

554
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 3: Okay, So Brian, we're going to cover a couple of

555
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,039
things with you, but I want you to go first

556
00:28:20,079 --> 00:28:23,640
to your game. Montreal Canadians minus one sixty one Nashville

557
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,160
Predators plus one thirty two. That was the consensus line

558
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,200
this morning. It may have shifted a little bit. Total

559
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,079
sits here at six. How are you breaking this one down? Yeah,

560
00:28:32,079 --> 00:28:33,319
I know you're running a little bit late.

561
00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 6: I wanted to touch on a couple other things, but

562
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,799
because we're running late, I'll just go to the games. Yeah,

563
00:28:38,839 --> 00:28:41,519
we're looking at today's game, and I'm looking at the

564
00:28:41,559 --> 00:28:45,319
Montreal side, and we're looking about a one fifty favorite

565
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:50,240
or so total of six. I'm not a Nashville fan.

566
00:28:50,519 --> 00:28:53,079
I actually made my power ratings about three and a

567
00:28:53,119 --> 00:28:59,440
half points lower than what the closing season win totally was.

568
00:28:59,519 --> 00:29:02,960
So basically I didn't think as highly of Nashville and

569
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,359
I thought Montreal was just as good. As what those

570
00:29:05,759 --> 00:29:09,079
those early numbers were showing. And we've got a Nashville team.

571
00:29:09,119 --> 00:29:11,519
I know they were really disappointing last year, but they

572
00:29:11,599 --> 00:29:14,440
have they have pretty good talent. But when you take

573
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,640
a look at their schedule, this is their third game

574
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,880
in four days, all on the road. They're coming off

575
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,799
that game against Toronto. They beat Outawa the night before.

576
00:29:23,519 --> 00:29:25,839
But you know, it doesn't mean as much early in

577
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,440
the season as it does later when you are playing

578
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,880
three and fours back to back that kind of thing.

579
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,920
But even if you just count as Montreal here, you

580
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,559
know one a one to fifty favorite is basically a

581
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:42,960
sixty percent chance to win. So your home teams in

582
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,440
hockey usually win about fifty three fifty four percent of

583
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,839
the games anyway. So then you add in the Montreal

584
00:29:50,119 --> 00:29:54,519
that I have seven points better in my power ratings,

585
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,960
and you also have Montreal in a much better situation

586
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:02,160
from a scheduling standpoint. The head yesterday off, they've only

587
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,880
played one out of three days before that, and the

588
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,279
game they played was against Seattle, a game that they

589
00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:09,880
needed to come back and and win. So you've got

590
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,480
a team that is not satisfied because it shouldn't have

591
00:30:13,519 --> 00:30:16,440
gone down to overtime when they played Seattle, and you're

592
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:20,720
getting them in a better scheduling situation here one fifties cheap.

593
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,480
I would have thought this was going to be probably

594
00:30:22,519 --> 00:30:26,240
about a one sixty five. So I prefer the Montreals

595
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:26,680
out here.

596
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,839
Speaker 3: Brian, You're right that game shouldn't have gone to overtime.

597
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,240
Have you seen the AI videos where their soccer videos

598
00:30:35,279 --> 00:30:38,319
where the guy one of the players taps his card

599
00:30:38,359 --> 00:30:42,759
with the referees payment processing and then they're awarded a penalty.

600
00:30:42,799 --> 00:30:45,519
I think that happened with the Montreal game and that

601
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,960
holding call to Marchmint late in the game to give

602
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,920
the Montreal the power play. So Marty Saint Louis must

603
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:56,480
have that Amex black card with him. But it should

604
00:30:56,519 --> 00:30:58,960
be a good game. Nonetheless, I know I'm getting I'm

605
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:04,400
bugging Andrew this with this narrative on the game. We

606
00:31:04,559 --> 00:31:07,039
get tons of comments in our live chat. We also

607
00:31:07,039 --> 00:31:09,480
get him in the videos that are posted afterwards. I

608
00:31:09,559 --> 00:31:14,279
want to post a comment from yesterday's video that I

609
00:31:14,319 --> 00:31:18,000
saw last night. If you guys can are a great

610
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:23,000
production crew, can put that up on the screen. Dan's

611
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:28,839
looking It's coming all right? No, not that, Brian, win

612
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:34,160
the first one. That's Brian's reply. I'm sorry it is

613
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,160
the first one someone asked about. This is my fault.

614
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:43,839
What's the point of the XG stat being nine total

615
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,720
sum of Rangers' home games? They didn't even score during

616
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,519
those three games. And Brian replied, and we try and

617
00:31:50,559 --> 00:31:53,039
reply to many of your comments in there, so this

618
00:31:53,119 --> 00:31:56,400
isn't me trying to disparage anyone or what have you.

619
00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,319
But Brian's answer was absolutely perfect. That's the point that

620
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:06,640
has as ten XG and have scored zero. The offense

621
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:11,200
is playing better than what they're actually producing on the ice,

622
00:32:11,839 --> 00:32:14,400
and the idea of the x G is you don't

623
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,960
hang your hat on just that one stat. But it's

624
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,480
a good indicator. And this is where I want Brian

625
00:32:20,559 --> 00:32:23,160
to come in, because Brian's a very good guy with analytics.

626
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,200
It's a good indicator of a team that's putting forth

627
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,240
a good effort is just not getting the puck luck

628
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,680
it's not going in, but at some point those bounces

629
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,960
will go your way. Brian, I will say that joint. Well,

630
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,079
I'm assuming it's a gentleman that made the comment.

631
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,559
Speaker 6: He came back in and said that he understood what

632
00:32:40,599 --> 00:32:44,240
I was saying, So he was looking for something a

633
00:32:44,279 --> 00:32:47,119
little bit different, I think, But yeah, you were just

634
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,880
talking about the Rangers. I had the Rangers is probably

635
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,319
a play today and I talked about We talked about

636
00:32:54,359 --> 00:32:55,839
that on the show. I was on the show yesterday

637
00:32:56,279 --> 00:32:59,960
and we talked about having good value in there. Well,

638
00:33:00,039 --> 00:33:02,200
are not the only people out there that bet hockey,

639
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,119
and a lot of money has come in on the

640
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,240
Rangers now, so to the point now, I think all

641
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,000
that value is gone. But I will say there was

642
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:14,160
a couple. There was another comment and it was correct,

643
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,200
a correct comment. When I did my play yesterday and Detroit,

644
00:33:17,599 --> 00:33:19,559
I thought Gibson was going to be a goal that

645
00:33:19,759 --> 00:33:23,119
was what they had listed at that point, and I said,

646
00:33:23,279 --> 00:33:25,039
you know, I like Detroit, but I also liked the

647
00:33:25,039 --> 00:33:27,200
plus one and a half. And then when they made

648
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,759
the change to what I considered the better goalie, I

649
00:33:29,799 --> 00:33:32,640
came back and I used that and the mine really

650
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,599
didn't move, and I came back and use that as

651
00:33:34,599 --> 00:33:38,279
a play for my clients. So, yes, we can only

652
00:33:38,319 --> 00:33:41,920
give you the information we have at this point. When

653
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,240
we are handicapping the games, it is very early in

654
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,720
the morning, and they do change the lines and sometimes

655
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,839
they make a goalie switch. They decided to use Gibson

656
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,240
on Friday, I believe, and so that's something that, Yeah,

657
00:33:54,359 --> 00:33:58,759
get that in mind when we do that. Also, when

658
00:33:58,799 --> 00:34:02,480
we're talking about these games games, we can change our

659
00:34:02,519 --> 00:34:05,319
mind a little bit based on the way the line moves.

660
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,800
I'm a power ratings guy, and if I find value,

661
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,360
there could be a game. I'm not going to do

662
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,440
this for clients, but there could be a game but

663
00:34:14,519 --> 00:34:19,199
one point where I'll bet one side and then I'll

664
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,079
end up getting much better number the other side and

665
00:34:22,159 --> 00:34:25,280
probably buy my way out of the bet. So we're

666
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,000
doing it on the show. Everybody wants all of our bets,

667
00:34:28,039 --> 00:34:30,159
but it all depends on what the line is. And

668
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,599
if you don't get the line you want is I believe.

669
00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:35,639
Buster said, we just wait, and we've got plenty of

670
00:34:35,639 --> 00:34:38,400
time to do that with all of these nighttime games.

671
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,760
So there are games are going to pop on our card,

672
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,880
pop off of our card, depending on what the line is.

673
00:34:43,519 --> 00:34:46,440
But we're really excited about talking about them now, and

674
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,760
hopefully we can get these bets in as we speak

675
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:49,480
about them right now.

676
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 2: That's kind of important here. Sorry, go ahead, No, I.

677
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 3: Was just gonna say, Andrew, and that's the importance of

678
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:59,199
having either a long term subscription, a three or seven

679
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,519
day subscription, or even the flex pack is at the minute,

680
00:35:02,559 --> 00:35:05,360
someone like Brian Leonard loads of play. It's in your email,

681
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,760
it's in your alert, you get it and you know it.

682
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,599
So you're you're getting the best number with it. But Andrew,

683
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,199
there was a good comment from Fortune Ought who says,

684
00:35:17,079 --> 00:35:19,519
unless you're willing to go back and chart the game yourself,

685
00:35:19,639 --> 00:35:23,599
you were left. You were left with x G as

686
00:35:23,639 --> 00:35:26,239
it means forgetting a snapshot of goaltending and puck luck,

687
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:27,320
which is absolutely true.

688
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, guys, I'll just say, like, I think

689
00:35:31,679 --> 00:35:33,639
hockey is one of those sports where like you can

690
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,119
use analytics, you can use the eye tests, there's so

691
00:35:36,159 --> 00:35:40,719
many different ways. And I think that what's that website, Brian,

692
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,360
the the NBA one shot quality?

693
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,039
Speaker 2: Is that what it's called shot quality?

694
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 3: Shot in basketball? Yes?

695
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, shot quality?

696
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: So I mean to me, there's like, I mean, the

697
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,800
difference I think with that is there's like, what's the

698
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,360
average NBA score these days, like one hundred and twenty

699
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,079
at one hundred and fifteen, Like, so you're getting so

700
00:36:01,159 --> 00:36:04,840
many different what can we say, the sample science is

701
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,159
big because you're seeing each player shoot so much. You're seeing, okay,

702
00:36:08,199 --> 00:36:11,440
this team expected points and it's cool to see that

703
00:36:11,519 --> 00:36:16,159
in the NBA, like, hey, this collective group of three players,

704
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,000
they shot well below their means with their three pointers

705
00:36:20,039 --> 00:36:22,440
and they should have had probably at least you know,

706
00:36:23,039 --> 00:36:25,119
X amount of more points and that makes a difference

707
00:36:25,119 --> 00:36:27,920
in the game. Now with the NHL, it's it's interesting

708
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,920
because you can, like one of my favorite ones to

709
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,320
look at, guys, is not even just the expected goals

710
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,920
for but as the goals saved above average for goaltenders.

711
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,559
Speaker 2: And you can look at it and in two ways.

712
00:36:41,039 --> 00:36:43,159
Speaker 1: You can look at it and Okay, I want to

713
00:36:43,159 --> 00:36:47,599
be contrarian and fade this goalie because he's evidently overachieving,

714
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,960
or I want to fade this team because he's carrying

715
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,000
his team. Or you can look at it in this

716
00:36:53,079 --> 00:36:56,519
way and say, you know what, maybe I stay away

717
00:36:56,559 --> 00:37:00,000
from this certain team because I think they have value

718
00:37:00,199 --> 00:37:02,920
because this goalie right now is standing on his head

719
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,760
like you guys don't like. I'm a Montsreal Canadians fan

720
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,320
and everybody in the world knows it, that knows me.

721
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,800
But I'm not a fool to know that Carrie Price

722
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,920
carried the Montreal Canadians, no pun intended for like fifteen years.

723
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,800
I wish I wished upon everything that Carry Price had

724
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,719
the team the Montreal Canadians are going to have in

725
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,760
two years time, because he absolutely like there were so

726
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,960
many games, like when the Montreal Canadians made that playoff

727
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,199
COVID run that they had everybody that was fading. The

728
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:37,519
Canadians were probably you know, going nuts because all the

729
00:37:37,559 --> 00:37:40,519
analytics said that they were getting dominated every game pretty

730
00:37:40,599 --> 00:37:43,360
much because Carrie Price is that good of a goaltender.

731
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,719
So I will tell people that goaltending statistics do really matter,

732
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,239
and sometimes we will call it puck luck, but we

733
00:37:50,599 --> 00:37:53,280
can also call it, you know, great goaltending on the

734
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,920
other side of things as well.

735
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 3: Right, what do you have up at Waiger Talk today?

736
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,599
Speaker 6: Yeah, before I get to that, I just one point

737
00:38:01,679 --> 00:38:05,440
I mentioned yesterday. I asked you guys about could Chuck

738
00:38:05,599 --> 00:38:09,440
for Ottawa his physicality I thought was going to help

739
00:38:09,519 --> 00:38:13,880
the Buffalo offense because they don't have to worry about that. Obviously,

740
00:38:14,599 --> 00:38:17,559
I didn't see the expected goals, but they had a

741
00:38:17,559 --> 00:38:19,719
really good game, So keep that in mind from now on.

742
00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,360
It may be the defense for Ottawa and maybe something

743
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,440
we could take advantage of. I went four and oh yesterday,

744
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:30,599
including the Detroit Underdog play nice four run Baseball has

745
00:38:30,599 --> 00:38:34,079
been terrific. I'm up like nineteen that units already in

746
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:36,320
the baseball playoffs. I am going to put out of

747
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,760
five percent today in the Major League Baseball playoffs. I'm

748
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,079
also going to put up my hockey and we'll do

749
00:38:43,159 --> 00:38:46,519
some football for the weekend. So they did mention I

750
00:38:46,519 --> 00:38:48,480
know it's the Hockey show, but they did mention they've

751
00:38:48,519 --> 00:38:51,119
got we all do. We all do football. So they

752
00:38:51,119 --> 00:38:53,559
did put out that weekend Warrior package for football. It's

753
00:38:53,559 --> 00:38:56,599
a great deal. Look that up. But a lot of

754
00:38:56,599 --> 00:38:59,320
things out there for us right now. And baseball has

755
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,880
been very good, very good to me, as they say,

756
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,880
over the years, and it looks like we're gonna have

757
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,519
a five percent going today. I've been on two shows today,

758
00:39:07,559 --> 00:39:09,960
so I haven't any chance to get it up, but.

759
00:39:10,199 --> 00:39:15,039
Speaker 3: We will do that in the next hour time. All right, Well, Brian,

760
00:39:15,199 --> 00:39:18,679
I wish you the best of luck with that five

761
00:39:18,679 --> 00:39:22,000
percent play and as we age, it's always a little

762
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,599
tougher to get it up, So don't worry about it

763
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:31,159
and you will be fine. Then what the hell blue cheers?

764
00:39:31,199 --> 00:39:35,119
They got Blue choose for that. Anyways, you should get

765
00:39:35,119 --> 00:39:37,719
excited just walking into the Circus sports book. You know

766
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,119
what I mean with the gang over there.

767
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:44,760
Speaker 2: But get people ideas. We wish you the.

768
00:39:44,599 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 3: Best of luck on your plays and fantastic four no

769
00:39:47,159 --> 00:39:51,960
day for you absolutely as well too, So knock it

770
00:39:52,039 --> 00:39:55,000
out of the ballpark. I God, I hope it's drop

771
00:39:55,079 --> 00:39:58,519
the drop it in my slack after. I really hope it's.

772
00:39:59,679 --> 00:40:02,320
With that, I said, go Jays, all right, Brian, thanks

773
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,719
for coming on. Angel Ran.

774
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,079
Speaker 1: We send us to play unless you're fading the Jays,

775
00:40:07,159 --> 00:40:09,519
and in that case, don't send us to play.

776
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 3: All right, Andrew, we had a couple to close off

777
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,360
this one. I'm gonna make it easy because it'll be

778
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:20,159
all you talking. Vegas Golden Knights Boston Bruins. Vegas minus

779
00:40:20,199 --> 00:40:23,599
two twenty seven, Boston plus one eighty three, and you

780
00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:26,559
know where I'm going here. First period over last year,

781
00:40:26,639 --> 00:40:30,079
Vegas Golden Knights first six games out of the hopper

782
00:40:30,159 --> 00:40:32,639
at home all over the total ten and two. Their

783
00:40:32,679 --> 00:40:35,559
first twelve games at home over one and a half. Hit.

784
00:40:36,079 --> 00:40:39,360
Their first game this year, La Kings hit again. This

785
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,960
is game two. I'm going over once again. I'll throw

786
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:44,320
it to you God.

787
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is about this team, but

788
00:40:46,079 --> 00:40:48,559
at home, like you said, it's just electrifying for them.

789
00:40:48,599 --> 00:40:51,440
This is their second home game. Their first one was

790
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:55,119
their their home opener against the Kings, which they dropped

791
00:40:55,119 --> 00:40:57,800
in a shootout which they had the lead. On my

792
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,760
show last night, I went through all their games so

793
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,320
far kharm and I was trying to trying to figure

794
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,639
out a game that they've played so far this season

795
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,519
that they should be happy about. And I didn't find

796
00:41:09,519 --> 00:41:12,559
one game. They've played four games this season so far.

797
00:41:13,119 --> 00:41:14,920
I don't think any of these games they should be

798
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,639
proud of themselves. You know, they they lose that first

799
00:41:17,639 --> 00:41:21,000
game in a shootout. They beat the San Jose Sharks,

800
00:41:21,039 --> 00:41:23,960
but if anybody knows how they beat the San Jose Sharks,

801
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,840
the goalie went out of the net and lost the

802
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,840
pocket was a tappen. They didn't really deserve that win.

803
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,679
And then they beat the Kraken in are they lose

804
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,800
to the Kraken in overtime, obviously you're not proud of

805
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,360
that one. And then of course the four to two

806
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:41,599
win over the Flames, which I was excited about because

807
00:41:41,599 --> 00:41:44,199
I had the team total for them, but Carmine they

808
00:41:44,199 --> 00:41:46,559
were down two to one going into the third period.

809
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,679
So a lot of times we talk about motivation, and

810
00:41:51,639 --> 00:41:55,000
I think that it's funny that us as handicappers, part

811
00:41:55,039 --> 00:41:56,880
of our job is to try and figure out which

812
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,079
teams are going to be fired up for certain games

813
00:41:59,159 --> 00:42:04,320
or not. And Brian talked about the Montreal Canadians, how

814
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,360
they they blew that lead and and then and then

815
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,760
they had to win in overtime and and so that

816
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,360
should keep them sharp, which I actually really agree with

817
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,079
his analysis there. I think that like yesterday, I lost

818
00:42:16,119 --> 00:42:20,079
the Utah first period pup line. I think the penalties

819
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,559
definitely hurt it. But one thing that heard it more,

820
00:42:24,599 --> 00:42:26,880
I think was was the fact that you know, you

821
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,760
had a team in Calgary that was pissed off coming

822
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,119
into that game, and I think in this particular matchup,

823
00:42:33,679 --> 00:42:36,199
you just have a really good spot I think for

824
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,159
the Vegas Golden Knights to put on a show in

825
00:42:38,159 --> 00:42:41,440
front of their home crowd when they're super motivated. So

826
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,519
this is about the exact same price as a lot

827
00:42:44,559 --> 00:42:46,920
of the other minus a half goal. First periods have

828
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:50,880
been karm, uh two to one, two nothing. You and

829
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,840
I both win h with that one. And I'm gonna

830
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:55,599
go a little bit off the board here with you,

831
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,880
and I'm going to take an alternate number just to

832
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:03,079
get a little fancy with here. Plus one eighty Vegas

833
00:43:03,159 --> 00:43:06,920
Golden Knights over four and a half goals, not three

834
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:08,679
and a half, not two and a half, plus one

835
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,320
eighty over four and a half team total goals. Let's

836
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:15,920
not forget Bruce Cassidy, head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights,

837
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,679
former head coach of the Boston Bruins. He got fired

838
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,400
by that team. I'll tell you this team looks so

839
00:43:21,519 --> 00:43:25,360
good right now. And if you're betting player props, you

840
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,800
gotta betting these player props on the Vegas Golden Knights

841
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:33,079
because Barbaschev, Thomas Hurdle, Mitch Marner assists props. Jack Eigel

842
00:43:33,119 --> 00:43:34,920
feels like he has a goal in every single game

843
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,199
he's played in here, Karm so far, but I like

844
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,199
this team quite a bit. And is it fair to say,

845
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,800
Karm that this Bruins team, it's almost a good thing.

846
00:43:44,119 --> 00:43:46,079
They got off to a decent start, I mean, three

847
00:43:46,119 --> 00:43:48,119
to one win over the Caps, four to three win

848
00:43:48,199 --> 00:43:51,039
over the Blackhawks three to one win over the Stabers.

849
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,400
Don't get me wrong, the Capitols are a good team,

850
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:58,039
but three of the four teams they played so far

851
00:43:58,159 --> 00:44:00,960
aren't really the most exciting teams. And then they give

852
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,159
up four goals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. So despite

853
00:44:04,159 --> 00:44:06,559
the fact that they're rested, I still think the Bruins

854
00:44:06,599 --> 00:44:08,360
get slapped around here tonight.

855
00:44:08,199 --> 00:44:09,159
Speaker 2: On a Thursday night.

856
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,559
Speaker 1: Give me the Knights first period and the full game

857
00:44:12,599 --> 00:44:15,519
team total, Karen, So when you're watching that game and

858
00:44:15,559 --> 00:44:18,119
you're cheering for your first period total, just give me

859
00:44:18,159 --> 00:44:21,119
a favorite. Just cheer for two nothing or three nothing.

860
00:44:21,159 --> 00:44:25,840
As far as the Knights are concerned, I will.

861
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 3: I may have to go out tonight because I don't

862
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,159
have enough screens for all of the games that I

863
00:44:31,199 --> 00:44:34,760
need to watch, because there's NFL football tonight. Of course

864
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,679
there's baseball playoffs, and of course a ton of pluck

865
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,719
action and a league game, which is our pod play

866
00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:47,119
of the day. So, guys, after the Mammoth came up

867
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:51,719
a goal short yesterday and that was again, that was

868
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:56,440
a half sized wager. All prop bets, like team totals

869
00:44:56,519 --> 00:44:59,559
will be will be half bets and I'll mention it,

870
00:45:00,039 --> 00:45:02,719
but this one is going to be a regular sized

871
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:08,519
play and it is the one of the final games

872
00:45:08,519 --> 00:45:11,719
of the night. It is the LA Kings, and as

873
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,880
you'll see there are we're still up our current bank

874
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,639
roll fifty two to eighteen. We're taking the Kings in

875
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:22,719
regulation minus one point thirty against none other than the

876
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:27,039
aforementioned Pittsburgh Penguins. Here's some numbers for you. Last season,

877
00:45:27,039 --> 00:45:29,960
the Kings number one in the Western Conference on home

878
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,719
ice thirty one. In ten of those thirty one home victories,

879
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:38,960
twenty seven were in regulation time, and when an Eastern

880
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:44,320
Conference team came to LA, they left losing thirteen of

881
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:48,159
the sixteen games. LA was thirteen and three, all thirteen

882
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:52,840
wins in regulation against Eastern Conference teams last season. We're

883
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,639
taking the Kings in their second game of the season

884
00:45:55,639 --> 00:45:58,679
at home. They lost their home opener for one to Colorado.

885
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,880
To get the win here in regulation over the Pittsburgh Penguins,

886
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,440
so that will be two hundred to win, roughly about

887
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:09,639
one forty four with that minus one thirty price tag.

888
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,039
Speaker 1: Let's go karm keep that bankroll going, and I think

889
00:46:14,079 --> 00:46:15,880
that this is gonna really show people how to just

890
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,639
manage the bankroll day by day. And I've got a

891
00:46:18,679 --> 00:46:22,320
segment starting next week, and well, to be completely honest

892
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,360
with you, it's kind of the opposite of the bank

893
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:28,320
Roll Challenge. It's the same game parlay, the daily same

894
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:31,840
game parlay. Sometimes we're gonna get a little bit funny

895
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,880
with them, and sometimes we're gonna be.

896
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 2: Just like a two or three player parlay.

897
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what, guys like this Vegas Golden

898
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,519
Knights team, it is incredible.

899
00:46:42,599 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 2: How like I'm gonna go to it right now, live

900
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:45,239
on the show.

901
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying this hits every single time, but

902
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:51,880
these guys, it's unbelievable for their points. Like right now,

903
00:46:52,159 --> 00:46:56,400
if you take a look at Jack Egel point, Mitch

904
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:01,360
Marner point, and I've in Barbashev to get point, all

905
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:06,000
of those together, you get plus one seventy five, you know,

906
00:47:06,199 --> 00:47:09,800
like these guys together, I mean, it's not rare that

907
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:11,760
these guys are gonna aren't gonna score. They're on the

908
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,000
power play, they're all there together. So we're gonna get

909
00:47:14,039 --> 00:47:17,880
some same game parlays going next Monday news segment.

910
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 2: So really looking forward to that.

911
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 1: But make sure you guys are following car Mines bankroll

912
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:23,920
play of the day, and make sure you guys are

913
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,880
managing your bankroll while doing so. And I just want

914
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,000
to stress guys because I was talking uh with some

915
00:47:30,039 --> 00:47:32,960
way you talk personal about this a couple of days ago.

916
00:47:33,639 --> 00:47:38,800
Make sure you're following the percentages when we release our plays.

917
00:47:39,679 --> 00:47:41,880
All of my props are either gonna be point two

918
00:47:42,079 --> 00:47:45,800
five units or point five units. Best bets are three

919
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:49,079
percent four percent three units four units. You need to

920
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:54,440
follow the structure variance lies with props. I feel confident

921
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,280
with my four percent sides. And speaking of which, karm

922
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,599
two four percent plays for me, uh, one four percent

923
00:48:00,679 --> 00:48:04,039
team total, one four percent side play. So really looking

924
00:48:04,079 --> 00:48:06,400
forward to that and the rest of the plays. We'll

925
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,480
figure out as the afternoon develops. But I'm in bounce

926
00:48:09,559 --> 00:48:12,320
back mode man, looking forward to a really really great day.

927
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,440
And then hats off to you, and hats out to

928
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:18,079
Brian for cashing those underdog tickets yesterday. Let's have a

929
00:48:18,119 --> 00:48:21,079
great day, man, take us home all right.

930
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 3: Three plays up for me in the NHL, including one

931
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:29,119
underdog play, and of course the the NFL five percent

932
00:48:29,119 --> 00:48:31,199
play goes on Sunday. Sunday ten. We'll get you ten

933
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,800
dollars off that regrad. The Weekend Warrior College in the

934
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:38,320
NFL loaded today as the injury reports come out, so

935
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,159
we're gonna have We're doing fantastic this season. We're gonna

936
00:48:43,159 --> 00:48:46,960
continue to do so for myself Andrew. Thanks guys for tuning.

937
00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:49,360
Hit that like button subscribe if you haven't already done so.

938
00:48:49,559 --> 00:48:52,599
We will see you tomorrow morning on pluck Time eleven

939
00:48:52,639 --> 00:48:53,199
am Live