Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, guys. Welcome into puck Time on wager Talk TV.
I am Andrew McGuinness. I've got Carmine with me as always,
mister carmin Bianco, don Buster will join us, of course,
and of course we're gonna have Brian Leonard as well
as it's a jam pack show. And you know how
it is with the new format, busy slate in the
NHL means a busy day on puck time. I can't
speak for all of you, but I am in bounce
back mode today. Utah didn't get it done in that
first period, play slight, slight profit or break even. I'd
say with the props did like a little bit of
the side of Chicago. Didn't have it in me to
get there, and man oh man, did they play well.
But car nothing wrong with bounce back mode when you
have a huge slate like we do today here on Thursday.
And I got to give you credit because you did
call the Buffalo Sabers getting their first win of the
season yesterday.
Speaker 2: I liked the over in that one.
Speaker 1: But I was just scared to give it out and
to bet that because I was like, men, if they
get their first win, they could lock things down defensively.
I figured when they'd get their first win though, it
would absolutely explode, and it's exactly what we saw.
Speaker 2: Karl.
Speaker 1: Are they gonna save some goals for other games though,
or did they waste all their goals?
Speaker 3: Andrew? You know, I feel so bad and welcome to
everyone in the chat and our new wager Talk insider members. Andrew,
I feel bad for some of my friends because they
watched the show and they went with the Sabers winning,
but they turned it into a parlay and they took
Tage Thompson to score. My men and fellow Bill's mafia Garnett.
He took Tage Thompson's to score along with the Sabers.
And you would think Buffalo scoring eight goals, Tage is
gonna get on the board and score a goal. No
he didn't. Not one of the eight goals was scored
by uh Tge Thompson. Hard to believe. But guys, we
have a great show today. We're gonna cover Colorado Columbus's
five games for you guys. Colorado, Columbus, Carolina, Anheim, Toronto,
New York Rangers, Nashville, Montreal, Vegas, and Boston. We're gonna
have our pod play and then try and answer a
few questions as well too. The pod didn't get there,
man Utah the Mammoth. Yesterday six power plays did not
score a single power play goal, ended up with winning
three to one. It doesn't get there, But I have
a pod play to make up for today, hopefully, Andrew
back to you, man, who what are we talking about? First?
Speaker 1: Here, let's dive in Blue Jackets and Avalanche here, Carmine
and looking at this matchup, both teams well rested, Both
teams have not been in action since Monday night. Here
in this Blue Jackets team, you know, they're a team
I think that people are going to sleep on this year.
They've got some talent and I think Carill Marchenko and
some of those goal scorers on that team might be
some of the most slept on players on the in
this league. And Adam Fantildy, Cole Cyllinger, Kent Johnston not
a bad team by any means. And of course they
have some depth, you know, with Charlie Coyle and Boone
Jenner the captain there. So curious to see how they're
going to face off against this Avalanche team. Looking at
the numbers in this one, though, we're seeing around minus
one fifty five one sixty as the average price for
the visiting team here, Carmen. And you know, when you
look at the last couple of meetings between these teams,
we've seen goals, but we've also seen, you know, some
success from this Avalanche team, or this Columbus Blue Jackets
team as well. They're they're two and one the last
three games against this Avalanche team, but in all three
games they have scored at least three goals. You know,
we've seen the Avalanche have a lot of success so
far this season. And besides that hiccup they had against
the Dallas Stars, and and Dallas is a really really
talented team and Miko Ranton and just put the dagger
in them, and it's always about those story lines. He
put that shootout winner. And this team's had kind of
a smooth sailing start, you know, four to one, two
to one, three to one, and of.
Speaker 2: Course that five to four loss.
Speaker 1: But when you go from playing a Buffalo Sabers team
that at the time was struggling to score goals, then
you have that rest up, they haven't really been challenged.
You go and play a Blue Jackets team, this team
could be a live dog, and you know me, I
hate fading the Avalanche. This is a team that I love,
that has so much talent. I think there's value tonight
on the Blue Jackets, whether you're back in them first period,
whether you want to take them over two and a
half goals, or whether you have it in you to
take the full game money line.
Speaker 2: Similar to what.
Speaker 1: We saw with the Blackhawks yesterday against the Saint Louis Blues,
I kind of feel the same way in this one.
It does kind of worry me that both teams have
the same rest. I'd kind of like here for Columbus
to have the rest advantage. But yeah, I do think
that we're going to see Columbus get off to a
good start here. And you know, Caren a lot of
times when I talk on the show and I give
out team totals, as you know, I'm just talking about
team total overs. But if there's one way we could
explore this as well, because we do have such big
favorites for Colorado, we could also look at them under
three and a half goals themselves. But I'm targeting a
competitive game. I think Columbus certainly battles in this one
and I think that based on the price, I think
that we're seeing Columbus be a little bit disrespected here.
So both teams rested carm What do you think.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Andrew, you know, it's funny that you talk about
getting off to like good starts and stuff last season,
and I'm just trying to bring it up right now.
The Colorado last season, in the opening twenty minutes of
the game had one of the top three worst numbers.
And it's just surprising because you look at the teams
that finished first and second as far as the worst
units in the first period. Carolina Hurricanes twenty six of
their eighty one or eighty two games that held the
lead after twenty minutes thirty one times, they trailed twenty
five times they were tied. Colorado Edmonton a second. But
we won't go over the numbers. Colorado of eighty one games,
they only had to lead after twenty minutes in twenty
five games, thirty one times they trailed, twenty six times
they were tied. If you bet against Colorado on the
money line, you were up units. They were down twenty
twenty units Andrew twenty units on the season for Colorado.
As far as first period plays. I want to go
one step further, but in a different direction as far
as this one goes Andrew, and that's looking at the
first period over. It's just because Columbus last season at
home were a very good team top three with the
overs in the first period twenty eight and thirteen last season,
one of the most profitable teams when taking first period overs.
In the first period over in this game, with a
total of six and a half, you would expect the
first period over to be one and a half and
about one sixty big. It is not. It is one
thirty five is the consensus number right now. You can
there's some one forties, but there's also some one thirties.
The consensus number is one thirty five right now. That's
where I want to go on this one. You know,
I took the Columbus over in their last game at home.
It did not go over the total. I'm not they
were one of the most profitable teams overall last year
as far as homeovers, they were very entertaining. I'm not
ready to give up on a team after one loss,
especially with that trend last season. So give me the
first period over Andrew minus one thirty five between these two.
Let's hope for a quick start and then I can
switch it over to another game.
Speaker 2: The first periods are the best, the first period of
the best.
Speaker 1: Let's get a quick start from both teams, and you
know we're gonna find out, I think really early, karm
if the rest advantage is it's going to help them
defensively or if it's going to help them offensively. I
think we're going to be able to tell right away
based on the pace of play between those two teams.
But a lot of talent out there, a lot of
talent out there could be a good player props game
as well. I'm hoping the Columbus can battle theo I'm
hoping that Columbus can fight their way in this game.
And you know, there's there's some days you wake up
and you like the dogs, and some days you wake
up and you like the favorites. And maybe it's because
I have a chip on my shoulder because I never
got to the window with that Chicago game last night.
So I'm I'm searching for a dog today. But I
do think we're gonna see some real competitive games here today, Carmen.
If you look at the overnight numbers, some people don't
take into account sharp action as much.
Speaker 2: With hockey.
Speaker 1: You can look at overnight moves a little bit. There
are a lot of dogs that took money overnight tonight.
Here karma are going into today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there is Listen, hockey is like any other sport.
Andrew Sharps will get in if they get the right number.
They're not betting teams, they're betting numbers and they're going
to grab the best price. Which is why honestly I'm
gonna hard up on this all season long. But having
something like Odds Logic where you can you can look
at two or three of the sharp books and and
you know, Brian Lennard, who's going to be on the
show a little later on, talked about it. I talked
about one of the books on there, which is War.
You have the other one for one one, you have Pinnacle,
you have Circa. I think as far as those four books,
and you know Brian touched on the Pinnacle one. Maybe
it's not a book that takes a lot of sharp action,
but there are books out there, whether they're offshores, that
do take plenty of sharp action. And if you're getting
but if you're getting offered the best price at one
of these books, you have to think twice about it.
So that's where that whole fishy line thing comes in.
And I saw a lot of people in the chat
yesterday talking about how that a Buffalo game looked like
a fishy line yesterday with the Bills, Bills, God damn Bills.
It was especially good about the Bills. With the Sabers,
it was a fishy number. And and wow, eight goals
by the Sabers in that one. But Andrew, we got
plenty to go here, and we got to bring in.
I was ready to ship him back to Mexico if
the Blue Jays loss last night, because I thought maybe
him being in Canada was bad luck. But here he
is none other than and are you wearing the Indiana shirt?
Have you even left the couch? Since? No?
Speaker 4: Actually this is a beautiful Saratoga shirt. Okay, Serato in
New York one of my favorite spots that I frequent
every year.
Speaker 5: And yes, they actually.
Speaker 3: Andrew and I, Andrew, and I appreciate you going there
and not sending one to Dan myself and Andrew, but
thank you anyways, Buster, Hope all is well for you.
You've got a great promo going on right now before
you get into your game. Two weeks of NHL for
ninety nine dollars. That's an absolutely fantastic deal. I hope
I got that correct. But you're going to look at
the Carolina Hurricanes and the Anaheim Ducks, two teams that
the game should be. This game should be sponsored by
pepsid Ac because both these teams give me harpburn all
year long. Where are you going with this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Carlin, Yeah, Carolina is here and they're on the
second game of a six game road trip at the
start of the season. This club seems to be on
a bit of a mission right from the start, winning
all three games, and they're looking dangerous and really offensive
for Carolina club, and that might.
Speaker 5: Be just what they need to do to maybe get
to that Cup this year.
Speaker 4: They're gonna even be better once their power play gets better,
because their power play has been terrible so far, so.
Speaker 5: That that's going to help them at all.
Speaker 4: This is a game that I think Carolina will really
want because the opponents in the next four games, geez,
they're tough. They go to La then to Vegas, then
to Colorado, and then they finish off with Dallas.
Speaker 5: I'm not too.
Speaker 4: Sure who the Carolina front off is pissed off over
there with the schedulers or something. But I'm telling you
that's a brutal schedule on the road to start the season. Now,
I know you got to go through those things, but
it's a.
Speaker 5: Sixth game, you know, real, really tough sometimes they break
that up. For these teams.
Speaker 4: As ra Anaheim, they seem like they're gonna be a
lot of fun to watch. Like Carlin, you might have
mentioned both they giving you a little heartburn there. I
tell you they will be. They're really fun to watch
so far, and they just play. They play offensive hockey.
They're all offensive, and I really think they have a
chance if they they'll tighten that up a little bit
go moving forward. I think they have a good chance
for a playoff spot this year, or at least to
fight for a playoff spot this season. One big problem
I've noticed, and I'm sure you guys have as well.
They're very, very sloppy. They give the puck up a lot.
I know you guys had one of your bank roll
games or something. What the car what Carmine is doing
the other night that Anaheim did win, But everybody that
watched that game. I tell you they they gave up
a puck a lot. That game could have been seven
to six, just as well as four to three. But
there's no doubt I think Anaheim is a live dog here.
But because of the situation with Carolina and I think
they really need to win this one, here's a problem.
I can't lay one eighty five or one ninety with
Carolina on the money line, and I think they're one
thirty in regulation.
Speaker 5: And like I said, I it's gonna be a close game.
Speaker 4: I really believe it's gonna be a close game, and
I really don't want my money on the side here.
So what we will play. We actually already gave out
the over to our clients. The over was six over
twenty last early this morning, last night, and that number
has gone up, but now it's at six and a
half minus twenty two.
Speaker 5: And you can find that DK and fand over.
Speaker 4: A lot of our clients do play. They're six and
a half under twenty two.
Speaker 5: We wouldn't make a smaller play at six and a half.
Speaker 4: But the beauty of watching this show at eleven o'clock
Eastern time is that you can wait.
Speaker 5: And I suggest you do that to get that six
over twenty and make the play at six. Now, both
clubs have been scoring, have been really scoring machines. If
you look at it.
Speaker 4: Caroline's averaged five goals a game and the Ducks they've
scored eleven goals in their last couple of games. And
like I said, you just watching that team play, it
was up and down the ice the other night with Pittsburgh,
that's for sure. Now when these teams get together, not
bad at all. The over has been five of the
last on him. Now let's go to Anaheim. The overs
four of the last five in Anaheim between these clubs. Now,
like I say, I think Carolinas took a new philosophy
this season.
Speaker 5: Then they're just gonna play out more offensive.
Speaker 4: They're not gonna it doesn't seem like they're caring as
much as the defense. And Anderson hasn't helped much lately
either because he's been a net.
Speaker 5: I think he's allowed six goals in the two games.
Speaker 4: He's played, and not many shots maybe forty forty five shots.
So he's struggled to start. And like I said, I
had mentioned earlier, the power play on Carolina has really struggled.
Speaker 5: But who better to.
Speaker 4: Play than the Anaheim Ducks because Anaheim has one of
the worst penalty kills around, so they might be just
whether doctor order for Carolina gets some power play goals
and Anaheim talking about special teams. Their power play has
been unbelievable. Just watch them play. It's been really good.
They're the second best team in the NHL in this
early part of the season. So I suggest that everyone
watch the game, do not play the side and bet
the over.
Speaker 3: Buster. And I know Andrew's got to follow up for you,
but I'm just going to make something quick here, you know.
You know, I look at the game and I see
the price on Carolina one four. I've watched I think
three of the Duck games, which doesn't happen. I don't
think I watched three of the Duck games all last season, Andrew.
But you know the funny thing here is that, you know,
I know they're going to get better, the Ducks. I
was surprised when one guy on TV there picked them
to make the playoffs this season. I don't think they're
that good as of yet. I think that this they're
a team that's eventually going to get there. Under Joe
Quinville and get better, but this early on, you cannot
keep giving teams two goal leads and expect to come back.
Giving up a two goal lead to the Sharks and
coming back is one thing. Giving it up to the
Penguins and coming back. You give up a two goal
lead to the Carolina Hurricanes tonight and you're done and dusted.
So I just I can't bring myself to bet the
dog in this game. I'd have to be Carolina regulation
or even Carolina on the money line and tied it
into something else if you really have to. Andrew Thoughts
follow up.
Speaker 1: Well, I was gonna ask, like, this is a collective
question for both of you guys, really, like you know
how in the in the NFL, like Ralph Michaels was
coming out with those charts after week two, like oh
and two teams ats versus you know, you know, teams
that are off to a good start or you know
how they are awful lot, How are we handicapping three
and oh teams so far or undefeated teams so far?
Or does it matter? Is it all circumstantial? Is that
overthinking it? What do you what do you guys think?
Speaker 2: Buster Like?
Speaker 1: Is it overthinking it? To look at because you talked
about they're gonna want to win this one because of
the games they have coming up. And I know people
got to take Anaheim more serious now, but they're three
in oh And as we just saw with the Buffalo Sabers,
even they can even they can score seven goals sometimes.
So is Carolina going to be able to stay dialed
in for four straight games?
Speaker 5: Well, like I say, I don't think. I don't know.
Speaker 4: I don't think they are, but I know the competition
is gonna get awfully tough on them. So that's why
I'm saying, I think you can look I don't think
you overthink this because I think you can look ahead,
and they probably are.
Speaker 5: They knew when they got you know, left Carolina, when
they left Rawley, they knew that we've got six games. Okay,
we get the two easy ones first. We need to
win those two easy ones.
Speaker 4: Because the other four not that they can't win them,
but you're on the road, and the road gets long,
and it's early.
Speaker 5: In the season.
Speaker 4: So I always you know me, Andrew, I'm a situational
guy as well, So when I see a situation.
Speaker 5: Like that, I'm probably with Carmine. I would bet Carolina tonight.
Speaker 4: But you know what, the Anaheim team, they've just they've
been they've been playing well, they've been just they've got
I love scrappy teams, just like our Montreal Canadians, Andrew.
I love a scrappy team because that shows heart and
I'm always about heart on the NHL, and you know,
guys getting in those corners, taking those shots, stuff like that.
So that's why I just stay away from the side here.
Speaker 5: But I think you're gonna see because the way Caroline
has been playing this year.
Speaker 4: They're not playing that as defense as they normally do,
and Anaheim is just gonna they go up and down
the ice. They've got lots of guys with speed. So
to answer your question, I would say, Andrew, you have
to look at the situation.
Speaker 5: At all times.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And one quick, one final thought Andrew on this,
And I know buster you mentioned that they're not playing
the greatest defense right now. If you go back and
look at Carolina's games at the beginning of last season,
there were a lot of high scoring games. I think
last year as a collective, you looked at the Minnesota Wild,
the team that played very good defense, and there were
some seven to six, six nothing, seven nothing games early
on in their season, so teams will eventually buckle down.
That has a lot to do with preseason. You know,
a preseason, we're not seeing all the players, all the
lines together. They're moving guys in and out, so it
isn't a proper preseason. It's kind of like the NFL.
Sometimes they'll take a team a couple of weeks to
get going. In the NFL, that matters more because it's
only a seventeen game schedule as opposed to an eighty
two game schedule here, so teams can drop points. But Buster,
what do you have about at wager talk before we
let you go?
Speaker 4: I the Major League Baseball playoffs are still going, and
I do have a four percent best bet. Had one
last night, got a nice easy win, so have another
one up. It's only nine dollars and we're hitting seventy
three percent with those sixteen and six over the last
twenty two so I know this is a hockey show,
but I've got the best bet up there. People that
bought my package, a ninety nine dollars package, they'll be
getting my hockey for the next few little days for sure.
Unless I have some hockey packages with college football, with
NFL stuff like that. So as you said, I appreciate
Carmine ahead of time. There ninety nine dollars for two
weeks of ball our plays and that includes any five
percent that will be putting out, and I do have
one mark for next week.
Speaker 5: But it all depend on the numbers. As you guys know,
I do mark my five percents.
Speaker 4: I have some already marked for January as long as
you get the number.
Speaker 3: So all right, now it's done. Don Yeah, okay, Don Buster,
thanks for coming on. Yeah, we thanks for having me.
Speaker 5: Guys.
Speaker 3: We got a lot still to cover if the Blue
Jays come back and win that series. The only way
I'm being in Buster back on Pluck time is if
he shaves his beard, leaves his mustache uses just Forerman
dies it black and looks like Davis Schneider of the
Blue Jays. Davis, speaking of Toronto teams, Andrew the Leaves
minus the New York Rangers plus one twenty five total
sits here at six. I'm gonna throw a quick hot takeout.
The Leafs did what they needed to do in that
game against Nashville after losing a couple of games to Detroit,
even though they outshot them badly in the game. In Toronto,
they got a Nashville team that came in, uh started
their backup goalie and Enelin. But they're going to face
the Stirk in tonight. These two teams played some tough
games last year and some close ones over the last
couple of years. I think, even though they can't score
at home, that the Rangers are a live dog here
at plus one twenty five. And that's what I'm taking.
Speaker 1: Carm You know, it almost bothers me that this is
one that I didn't end up playing overnight, because, uh,
you know, we're seeing the movement. I mean, if you
look at odds logic right now at the opener versus
the current number, it's currently definitely been hit. And if
you want to look at it, as you mentioned, Karen,
the struggle for this Rangers team specifically has come at
home with some of those shutouts for them being at
home and on home ice. So I was talking about
this on my show last night, like it's one of
those frustrating things because you know, I had the first
period over in both of those times where they were
off a shutout, you know, first time it was off
the shutout against Pittsburgh. The second time it was off
being shut out against Washington, and then they got shut
out again. And I never ran these numbers by Ralph Michaels,
But you have to think that the sense of urgency
not only being off one shutout, but being off a
shutout twice two games in a row, is crazy, carm
for a team to be able to do that and
to you know, not be able to produce and be
productive that way. And now here's the thing is that
when you look at the expected goals for albeit they've
played five games teas and many teams have played three
or four, so it might not mean too much, but
they're still up there at the top of the league
in expected goals. And I know there's gonna be a
crowd of people that will say this, and I know
you want to talk about this today, Karm where people
will say it doesn't matter, you have to get the goals,
and I agree with you.
Speaker 2: The final result is what matters. You know.
Speaker 1: I was telling Leaf fans when they lost to Toronto
and they outshot them forty five to fifteen.
Speaker 2: Who cares how many shots you got.
Speaker 1: You still lost At the end of the day, though
this Rangers team is not playing as poorly as their
numbers indicate. This Toronto team, however, they're still not going
to be happy about how they've played this year. I
don't think you know they're not going to be satisfied
with how they've played. They dropped those two games against
the Red Wings, and then they absolutely slapped around the
Nashville Predators a game. As you said, Karm, they should
have won. But I like New York as well. I
think they're going to get the job done. I think
the first period is the play, and Karm, I'm putting
myself out there on puck time. I'm labeling it right now.
You guys are gonna hear this with me right now.
If the first period or full game over does not
hit in this game, specifically the first period, you will
not catch me take a first period play involving the
Rangers until twenty twenty six. I'm putting myself out there
right now with that. You guys in the comments all
heard it because I already know what's gonna happen. If
I don't play the first period over in this game,
it's gonna hit in the first six minutes of the
of the hockey game.
Speaker 2: So I feel like.
Speaker 1: I'm already I'm already looped into it because I've taken
it already twice with this Rangers team this season. But
we're gonna go with that. But I do lean towards
the Rangers as well. You know this, this leaves team karms.
I do have depth, but I do worry about their
scoring because I put I put that that tweet up
yesterday that we were kind of laughing at about how
mrner or Kneelander and Matt Youse have four empty net
goals and only one real goal. But you know that
they're like a volcano. They could erupt at any moment.
We just have to hope that New York contains them.
So lean to New York for me. And we got
to go right back to the first period over.
Speaker 3: Oh, no more plays. My head just went, no more
Rangers plays, No more Rangers plays. You can't be. You
can't be what's the word I'm looking for. You can't
just look at one game and and give up after
one game. If you did, it'd be the wrong way
to handicap. And you just keep on going euro up
multiple units on the season. I'm coming for you. Man
winning night last night with the a Red Wings plus
money had a good spot against the Florida Panthers, so
we got there. I've got an underdog on today's card,
which is up at wager Talk as well too, Andrew. Okay,
so we've talked about this at least Rangers one. We're
gonna go to Brian in just a second once he is.
Brian around yet. He should be logging in soon, I hope.
But the last four games between these two teams in Toronto,
the Rangers have won two of the four games by five,
two and four to one score lines, and the other
two games went to ot Andrew, so that tells me
that the Rangers at the very least give them a
hard time in those games. Now we're waiting on Brian
Leonard when he pops in, and there he is, I
see him popping ino. He was probably he was combing
his hair. He was combing his hair, Brian Leonard when
he pops in. Sorry about that guy.
Speaker 2: He was watching the show. He was watching watching.
Speaker 6: The show, and I thought I was in and I
realized it was on the Baseball Show, so nobody let
me in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, did you did you play on the Life did
you click on the lake button while you were there?
We really appreciate it.
Speaker 6: Of course I was going to comment about the good
looking house, but I figured i'd wait until I get
on first.
Speaker 3: Well, there you're going.
Speaker 2: You got to bring it on. You're adding to it, Brian.
Speaker 3: Okay, So Brian, we're going to cover a couple of
things with you, but I want you to go first
to your game. Montreal Canadians minus one sixty one Nashville
Predators plus one thirty two. That was the consensus line
this morning. It may have shifted a little bit. Total
sits here at six. How are you breaking this one down? Yeah,
I know you're running a little bit late.
Speaker 6: I wanted to touch on a couple other things, but
because we're running late, I'll just go to the games. Yeah,
we're looking at today's game, and I'm looking at the
Montreal side, and we're looking about a one fifty favorite
or so total of six. I'm not a Nashville fan.
I actually made my power ratings about three and a
half points lower than what the closing season win totally was.
So basically I didn't think as highly of Nashville and
I thought Montreal was just as good. As what those
those early numbers were showing. And we've got a Nashville team.
I know they were really disappointing last year, but they
have they have pretty good talent. But when you take
a look at their schedule, this is their third game
in four days, all on the road. They're coming off
that game against Toronto. They beat Outawa the night before.
But you know, it doesn't mean as much early in
the season as it does later when you are playing
three and fours back to back that kind of thing.
But even if you just count as Montreal here, you
know one a one to fifty favorite is basically a
sixty percent chance to win. So your home teams in
hockey usually win about fifty three fifty four percent of
the games anyway. So then you add in the Montreal
that I have seven points better in my power ratings,
and you also have Montreal in a much better situation
from a scheduling standpoint. The head yesterday off, they've only
played one out of three days before that, and the
game they played was against Seattle, a game that they
needed to come back and and win. So you've got
a team that is not satisfied because it shouldn't have
gone down to overtime when they played Seattle, and you're
getting them in a better scheduling situation here one fifties cheap.
I would have thought this was going to be probably
about a one sixty five. So I prefer the Montreals
out here.
Speaker 3: Brian, You're right that game shouldn't have gone to overtime.
Have you seen the AI videos where their soccer videos
where the guy one of the players taps his card
with the referees payment processing and then they're awarded a penalty.
I think that happened with the Montreal game and that
holding call to Marchmint late in the game to give
the Montreal the power play. So Marty Saint Louis must
have that Amex black card with him. But it should
be a good game. Nonetheless, I know I'm getting I'm
bugging Andrew this with this narrative on the game. We
get tons of comments in our live chat. We also
get him in the videos that are posted afterwards. I
want to post a comment from yesterday's video that I
saw last night. If you guys can are a great
production crew, can put that up on the screen. Dan's
looking It's coming all right? No, not that, Brian, win
the first one. That's Brian's reply. I'm sorry it is
the first one someone asked about. This is my fault.
What's the point of the XG stat being nine total
sum of Rangers' home games? They didn't even score during
those three games. And Brian replied, and we try and
reply to many of your comments in there, so this
isn't me trying to disparage anyone or what have you.
But Brian's answer was absolutely perfect. That's the point that
has as ten XG and have scored zero. The offense
is playing better than what they're actually producing on the ice,
and the idea of the x G is you don't
hang your hat on just that one stat. But it's
a good indicator. And this is where I want Brian
to come in, because Brian's a very good guy with analytics.
It's a good indicator of a team that's putting forth
a good effort is just not getting the puck luck
it's not going in, but at some point those bounces
will go your way. Brian, I will say that joint. Well,
I'm assuming it's a gentleman that made the comment.
Speaker 6: He came back in and said that he understood what
I was saying, So he was looking for something a
little bit different, I think, But yeah, you were just
talking about the Rangers. I had the Rangers is probably
a play today and I talked about We talked about
that on the show. I was on the show yesterday
and we talked about having good value in there. Well,
are not the only people out there that bet hockey,
and a lot of money has come in on the
Rangers now, so to the point now, I think all
that value is gone. But I will say there was
a couple. There was another comment and it was correct,
a correct comment. When I did my play yesterday and Detroit,
I thought Gibson was going to be a goal that
was what they had listed at that point, and I said,
you know, I like Detroit, but I also liked the
plus one and a half. And then when they made
the change to what I considered the better goalie, I
came back and I used that and the mine really
didn't move, and I came back and use that as
a play for my clients. So, yes, we can only
give you the information we have at this point. When
we are handicapping the games, it is very early in
the morning, and they do change the lines and sometimes
they make a goalie switch. They decided to use Gibson
on Friday, I believe, and so that's something that, Yeah,
get that in mind when we do that. Also, when
we're talking about these games games, we can change our
mind a little bit based on the way the line moves.
I'm a power ratings guy, and if I find value,
there could be a game. I'm not going to do
this for clients, but there could be a game but
one point where I'll bet one side and then I'll
end up getting much better number the other side and
probably buy my way out of the bet. So we're
doing it on the show. Everybody wants all of our bets,
but it all depends on what the line is. And
if you don't get the line you want is I believe.
Buster said, we just wait, and we've got plenty of
time to do that with all of these nighttime games.
So there are games are going to pop on our card,
pop off of our card, depending on what the line is.
But we're really excited about talking about them now, and
hopefully we can get these bets in as we speak
about them right now.
Speaker 2: That's kind of important here. Sorry, go ahead, No, I.
Speaker 3: Was just gonna say, Andrew, and that's the importance of
having either a long term subscription, a three or seven
day subscription, or even the flex pack is at the minute,
someone like Brian Leonard loads of play. It's in your email,
it's in your alert, you get it and you know it.
So you're you're getting the best number with it. But Andrew,
there was a good comment from Fortune Ought who says,
unless you're willing to go back and chart the game yourself,
you were left. You were left with x G as
it means forgetting a snapshot of goaltending and puck luck,
which is absolutely true.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, guys, I'll just say, like, I think
hockey is one of those sports where like you can
use analytics, you can use the eye tests, there's so
many different ways. And I think that what's that website, Brian,
the the NBA one shot quality?
Speaker 2: Is that what it's called shot quality?
Speaker 3: Shot in basketball? Yes?
Speaker 2: Yeah, shot quality?
Speaker 1: So I mean to me, there's like, I mean, the
difference I think with that is there's like, what's the
average NBA score these days, like one hundred and twenty
at one hundred and fifteen, Like, so you're getting so
many different what can we say, the sample science is
big because you're seeing each player shoot so much. You're seeing, okay,
this team expected points and it's cool to see that
in the NBA, like, hey, this collective group of three players,
they shot well below their means with their three pointers
and they should have had probably at least you know,
X amount of more points and that makes a difference
in the game. Now with the NHL, it's it's interesting
because you can, like one of my favorite ones to
look at, guys, is not even just the expected goals
for but as the goals saved above average for goaltenders.
Speaker 2: And you can look at it and in two ways.
Speaker 1: You can look at it and Okay, I want to
be contrarian and fade this goalie because he's evidently overachieving,
or I want to fade this team because he's carrying
his team. Or you can look at it in this
way and say, you know what, maybe I stay away
from this certain team because I think they have value
because this goalie right now is standing on his head
like you guys don't like. I'm a Montsreal Canadians fan
and everybody in the world knows it, that knows me.
But I'm not a fool to know that Carrie Price
carried the Montreal Canadians, no pun intended for like fifteen years.
I wish I wished upon everything that Carry Price had
the team the Montreal Canadians are going to have in
two years time, because he absolutely like there were so
many games, like when the Montreal Canadians made that playoff
COVID run that they had everybody that was fading. The
Canadians were probably you know, going nuts because all the
analytics said that they were getting dominated every game pretty
much because Carrie Price is that good of a goaltender.
So I will tell people that goaltending statistics do really matter,
and sometimes we will call it puck luck, but we
can also call it, you know, great goaltending on the
other side of things as well.
Speaker 3: Right, what do you have up at Waiger Talk today?
Speaker 6: Yeah, before I get to that, I just one point
I mentioned yesterday. I asked you guys about could Chuck
for Ottawa his physicality I thought was going to help
the Buffalo offense because they don't have to worry about that. Obviously,
I didn't see the expected goals, but they had a
really good game, So keep that in mind from now on.
It may be the defense for Ottawa and maybe something
we could take advantage of. I went four and oh yesterday,
including the Detroit Underdog play nice four run Baseball has
been terrific. I'm up like nineteen that units already in
the baseball playoffs. I am going to put out of
five percent today in the Major League Baseball playoffs. I'm
also going to put up my hockey and we'll do
some football for the weekend. So they did mention I
know it's the Hockey show, but they did mention they've
got we all do. We all do football. So they
did put out that weekend Warrior package for football. It's
a great deal. Look that up. But a lot of
things out there for us right now. And baseball has
been very good, very good to me, as they say,
over the years, and it looks like we're gonna have
a five percent going today. I've been on two shows today,
so I haven't any chance to get it up, but.
Speaker 3: We will do that in the next hour time. All right, Well, Brian,
I wish you the best of luck with that five
percent play and as we age, it's always a little
tougher to get it up, So don't worry about it
and you will be fine. Then what the hell blue cheers?
They got Blue choose for that. Anyways, you should get
excited just walking into the Circus sports book. You know
what I mean with the gang over there.
Speaker 2: But get people ideas. We wish you the.
Speaker 3: Best of luck on your plays and fantastic four no
day for you absolutely as well too, So knock it
out of the ballpark. I God, I hope it's drop
the drop it in my slack after. I really hope it's.
With that, I said, go Jays, all right, Brian, thanks
for coming on. Angel Ran.
Speaker 1: We send us to play unless you're fading the Jays,
and in that case, don't send us to play.
Speaker 3: All right, Andrew, we had a couple to close off
this one. I'm gonna make it easy because it'll be
all you talking. Vegas Golden Knights Boston Bruins. Vegas minus
two twenty seven, Boston plus one eighty three, and you
know where I'm going here. First period over last year,
Vegas Golden Knights first six games out of the hopper
at home all over the total ten and two. Their
first twelve games at home over one and a half. Hit.
Their first game this year, La Kings hit again. This
is game two. I'm going over once again. I'll throw
it to you God.
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is about this team, but
at home, like you said, it's just electrifying for them.
This is their second home game. Their first one was
their their home opener against the Kings, which they dropped
in a shootout which they had the lead. On my
show last night, I went through all their games so
far kharm and I was trying to trying to figure
out a game that they've played so far this season
that they should be happy about. And I didn't find
one game. They've played four games this season so far.
I don't think any of these games they should be
proud of themselves. You know, they they lose that first
game in a shootout. They beat the San Jose Sharks,
but if anybody knows how they beat the San Jose Sharks,
the goalie went out of the net and lost the
pocket was a tappen. They didn't really deserve that win.
And then they beat the Kraken in are they lose
to the Kraken in overtime, obviously you're not proud of
that one. And then of course the four to two
win over the Flames, which I was excited about because
I had the team total for them, but Carmine they
were down two to one going into the third period.
So a lot of times we talk about motivation, and
I think that it's funny that us as handicappers, part
of our job is to try and figure out which
teams are going to be fired up for certain games
or not. And Brian talked about the Montreal Canadians, how
they they blew that lead and and then and then
they had to win in overtime and and so that
should keep them sharp, which I actually really agree with
his analysis there. I think that like yesterday, I lost
the Utah first period pup line. I think the penalties
definitely hurt it. But one thing that heard it more,
I think was was the fact that you know, you
had a team in Calgary that was pissed off coming
into that game, and I think in this particular matchup,
you just have a really good spot I think for
the Vegas Golden Knights to put on a show in
front of their home crowd when they're super motivated. So
this is about the exact same price as a lot
of the other minus a half goal. First periods have
been karm, uh two to one, two nothing. You and
I both win h with that one. And I'm gonna
go a little bit off the board here with you,
and I'm going to take an alternate number just to
get a little fancy with here. Plus one eighty Vegas
Golden Knights over four and a half goals, not three
and a half, not two and a half, plus one
eighty over four and a half team total goals. Let's
not forget Bruce Cassidy, head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights,
former head coach of the Boston Bruins. He got fired
by that team. I'll tell you this team looks so
good right now. And if you're betting player props, you
gotta betting these player props on the Vegas Golden Knights
because Barbaschev, Thomas Hurdle, Mitch Marner assists props. Jack Eigel
feels like he has a goal in every single game
he's played in here, Karm so far, but I like
this team quite a bit. And is it fair to say,
Karm that this Bruins team, it's almost a good thing.
They got off to a decent start, I mean, three
to one win over the Caps, four to three win
over the Blackhawks three to one win over the Stabers.
Don't get me wrong, the Capitols are a good team,
but three of the four teams they played so far
aren't really the most exciting teams. And then they give
up four goals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. So despite
the fact that they're rested, I still think the Bruins
get slapped around here tonight.
Speaker 2: On a Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Give me the Knights first period and the full game
team total, Karen, So when you're watching that game and
you're cheering for your first period total, just give me
a favorite. Just cheer for two nothing or three nothing.
As far as the Knights are concerned, I will.
Speaker 3: I may have to go out tonight because I don't
have enough screens for all of the games that I
need to watch, because there's NFL football tonight. Of course
there's baseball playoffs, and of course a ton of pluck
action and a league game, which is our pod play
of the day. So, guys, after the Mammoth came up
a goal short yesterday and that was again, that was
a half sized wager. All prop bets, like team totals
will be will be half bets and I'll mention it,
but this one is going to be a regular sized
play and it is the one of the final games
of the night. It is the LA Kings, and as
you'll see there are we're still up our current bank
roll fifty two to eighteen. We're taking the Kings in
regulation minus one point thirty against none other than the
aforementioned Pittsburgh Penguins. Here's some numbers for you. Last season,
the Kings number one in the Western Conference on home
ice thirty one. In ten of those thirty one home victories,
twenty seven were in regulation time, and when an Eastern
Conference team came to LA, they left losing thirteen of
the sixteen games. LA was thirteen and three, all thirteen
wins in regulation against Eastern Conference teams last season. We're
taking the Kings in their second game of the season
at home. They lost their home opener for one to Colorado.
To get the win here in regulation over the Pittsburgh Penguins,
so that will be two hundred to win, roughly about
one forty four with that minus one thirty price tag.
Speaker 1: Let's go karm keep that bankroll going, and I think
that this is gonna really show people how to just
manage the bankroll day by day. And I've got a
segment starting next week, and well, to be completely honest
with you, it's kind of the opposite of the bank
Roll Challenge. It's the same game parlay, the daily same
game parlay. Sometimes we're gonna get a little bit funny
with them, and sometimes we're gonna be.
Speaker 2: Just like a two or three player parlay.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what, guys like this Vegas Golden
Knights team, it is incredible.
Speaker 2: How like I'm gonna go to it right now, live
on the show.
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying this hits every single time, but
these guys, it's unbelievable for their points. Like right now,
if you take a look at Jack Egel point, Mitch
Marner point, and I've in Barbashev to get point, all
of those together, you get plus one seventy five, you know,
like these guys together, I mean, it's not rare that
these guys are gonna aren't gonna score. They're on the
power play, they're all there together. So we're gonna get
some same game parlays going next Monday news segment.
Speaker 2: So really looking forward to that.
Speaker 1: But make sure you guys are following car Mines bankroll
play of the day, and make sure you guys are
managing your bankroll while doing so. And I just want
to stress guys because I was talking uh with some
way you talk personal about this a couple of days ago.
Make sure you're following the percentages when we release our plays.
All of my props are either gonna be point two
five units or point five units. Best bets are three
percent four percent three units four units. You need to
follow the structure variance lies with props. I feel confident
with my four percent sides. And speaking of which, karm
two four percent plays for me, uh, one four percent
team total, one four percent side play. So really looking
forward to that and the rest of the plays. We'll
figure out as the afternoon develops. But I'm in bounce
back mode man, looking forward to a really really great day.
And then hats off to you, and hats out to
Brian for cashing those underdog tickets yesterday. Let's have a
great day, man, take us home all right.
Speaker 3: Three plays up for me in the NHL, including one
underdog play, and of course the the NFL five percent
play goes on Sunday. Sunday ten. We'll get you ten
dollars off that regrad. The Weekend Warrior College in the
NFL loaded today as the injury reports come out, so
we're gonna have We're doing fantastic this season. We're gonna
continue to do so for myself Andrew. Thanks guys for tuning.
Hit that like button subscribe if you haven't already done so.
We will see you tomorrow morning on pluck Time eleven
am Live