Speaker 1: All right, Welcome in everybody. It is so weird that
baseball starts tonight on Netflix, a Netflix special to start
the season. It's back. It's March twenty fifth, and Major
League Baseball opens up tonight. Yankees Giants. I'm thrilled to
be back with you, guys. I feel like I haven't
seen you in forever, and now I get to see
you every basically every day, man until like the end
of October. I couldn't be more excited about it. Welcome back.
How have you guys been. I haven't seen either of
you while beat Brian Leonard, how's everything going? And then
we'll go to TV.
Speaker 2: Yeah, everything's going well. Got to see some guys I
haven't seen it in a while. Last night, Rob Vino's
sons band, Gray Scale, was in town, so Ski, Teddy Sabranski, Robbino,
obviously myself. We were down there last night and had
a good time. So it's good to finally see some
faces I haven't seen in a while.
Speaker 1: I'm so jealous of that. By the way, I saw
you guys there. I've listened to Rob's son's band. They're awesome.
I was very jealous that I was not out there
for that. But yeah, that's that's awesome. TV. How's everything
in your neck of the woods?
Speaker 3: Yeah, everything's going well.
Speaker 2: I did.
Speaker 3: I'm always jealous of Brian. He sends me videos and
of concerts he goes to. And Brian and I actually
have similar musical taste. We went to a concert together
two years ago as a matter of fact. So but yeah,
things are going well. Glad baseball's back. I already have
tickets to six Japanese games out here that I'm gonna
be going to in the next week or so. So
my favorite time of year. Yeah, everyone's everyone, even the
Royals and there, even the Guardians think they have a
chance to win the World Series this time of year,
so it's it's uh, it's always the best time of
year for baseball fans. Opening Days great. I don't like
how they're doing it this year. One game and then
the rest of the games the next day, but you know,
what are you gonna do? You know, March Madness, it's
it's kind of overlapping with March Madness, kind of weird scheduling,
but I'm just glad it's back.
Speaker 1: You know, TV. I kind of my initial reaction was
the same as yours in that regard. And I gotta
say though, I love the fact that like they're almost
doing like a Netflix special. I think it's good for
the game. It's good exposure. I think it's gonna be
like goofy to see like a bunch of celebrities and
WWE superstars at the you know, the opener of Major
League Baseball. But hey, anything to get more eyes on
the game is great. And then of course tomorrow is
is opening day, and so what you know, quick programming note,
before we get into tonight's one game, we're gonna be you.
So tomorrow we're back nine am, normal show, the show
we usually do. Today, we're gonna talk Yankees Giants the
only game tonight, and then the rest of the time
we'll hit futures questions on teams. You know, for me,
I don't really bet win totals anymore, and I got
my reasons why I do want to hear about that.
But it's like more or less team outlooked stuff like that,
and we'll do that for the remaining thirty minutes or
so in the show. So that's that's kind of the plan.
I guess, without further ado, I'll go to you first,
Brian Leonard Yankees Giants. We have a baseball game to
bet on tonight. Anything cats your eye here, sider total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to keep in mind these teams have
just gotten out of a spring training, a lot of
them because of the the Great Tournament. By the way,
they're not really built up. So you're going to see,
like normally you want your batters to take fifty fifty
eight beats and you want your pitchers to have enough
innings pitched. And with that going on, I've seen a
lot of a lot of coaches come out and say
that we're going to start slow with this guy because
he's not fully stretched out and all. So that's something
to keep in mind here regarding this game. Obviously, the
Yankees have not traveled west, and they're traveling west for
the first time all season long. They they played down
in Florida in spring training, so that's something a little
bit different for him. It's first travel and it's all
the way across the country, and it's a team in
the Yankees who a lot of people thought disappointed last
year and they've got something to really shoot for. The Giants,
on the other hand, are a team that just seems
like every single year, nobody expects much out of you know,
they're a five hundred ball club whatever, and they are
a team that's done some things in the offseason. I
think it's makes them better. So it's an interesting handicap,
and you're looking at a total of around seven in
this game, And yeah, that makes a lot of sense
based on the things that I have said. But even
though this is one of the ballparks that suppresses home run,
suppresses runs for the most part, you get a couple
guys on base, and both of these teams, especially the Yankees,
have guys that had that ability to just get up
there and make it a three run game right there
and hit a three run homer. So it's kind of
tough when you are playing totals under seven unless you
have bad hitting teams. Most of the time we'll see
something like that when you've got like Pittsburgh on the
Mama Skeins, and their offense obviously is better than it
was in the past, but you figure you're only going
to score five and a half runs because of the offenses.
San Francisco've got pretty good offense outside of San Francisco,
and the Yankees obviously have one of the better, probably
top two in Major League Baseball. So it's interesting from
that standpoint as to what you're picking from a side
or total in this game. I think the side of
the total pretty much what I expected it to be.
So I am going to when it gets to be
time for my part of the parlor or whatever we're
gonna talk about later. I think I'm gonna go with
a prop on this game, and obviously just one game
on the schedule, that may be the better way to play.
Everybody in the world who bet sides and totles are
gonna betting into this game, so the line is gonna
be pretty tight.
Speaker 3: Go after Brent.
Speaker 1: Is that how we're gonna do? Sure?
Speaker 3: I got a couple of opinions on this game. Yeah,
this is the only game I think there. There are
a lot of people who are immediately jumping on unders here.
I'm not sure if that's the way to go. My
projection comes out exactly at seven, so I don't like
a full game over or under. The first five came
out at four and a half, then it went down
to four, then it went down to three and a half.
I would be a little wary playing under three and
a half in the first five, because I'm projecting both
of these pitchers to give up two earned runs each.
If you look at their history against the opposite batters,
Judge has done a bit of a number on Web
in his career, and Freed has also been tagged by
a Rise and a couple of other batters on the
Giants side, so I would be a little wary going under. However,
this ballpark is conducive to unders, and being the first
game of the season, everyone's rested, the bullpens are one
hundred percent, and the batters are slightly rusty coming out,
So yeah, everything does point to an under, but I
would be wary of that. I do like Max Freed
to get some strikeouts here, and I looked at his
over under at five and a half, but I actually
like the alt for that five plus. On DraftKings, they
let you alt the strikeouts five to six plus seven
plus five plus is minus one sixty minus one seventy.
I know it's a little juicy, but I'm pretty sure
he can get five s alright counts in this game.
I expect both pitchers to go past five innings here,
so that would be one play that I certainly would
think is a doable play. I broke it down in
a video on wager Talk's YouTube page, so if you
want more details on that, that's one way I would
go on this. I have a couple of other opinions,
but I'll throw it back to you for now. Adam Well,
I kind of agree with your Freed opinion. The Giants
last year were not good against left handed pitching, and
I don't know how much they've improved in that area.
So you know, you get a lefty like Freed, someone
that's had success against the Giants throughout his career. I
definitely can't I can't sort of make a case against
you know, anything you said about, you know, Freed maybe
having success here. I also can't really make a case
against the under even though it's like what I will
say is that line is very tight. Under seven does
not give you any room for error. I don't think
it's a good bet because obviously, you know, you're there's
so many sort of like things that could you know,
it's the first game of the year, it's it's it's
the end of March. Who knows how guys, you know,
sharp guys are gonna be But I mean, listen, if
if if your two starters are who they are probably
going to get to the later innings with a really
good chance to hit that under that's a you know,
where I'm at on both of these teams. This is
probably how a lot of my early season breakdowns will go,
is where I'm at relative.
Speaker 1: To market on a team. And then you know, certainly today, tomorrow,
and then and then Friday, it's going to be where
I'm relative to where I think the market is going
to be, and then after that we'll kind of know
where the market is. I think I'm a little higher
on the Giants than most. I was high on this
team last year, and you know, I like the new manager,
I like some of the guys they got this offseason.
I still think that they're likely better than they're getting
credit for. And I'm almost always going to be lower
on the Yankees because the Yankees are are probably you
know from a name, They're always going to be inflated
no matter matter what text. Yeah, so like for an
I mean, I made this like my Yankees minus one twelve.
I don't really see any value on the on picking
a side here. I think if you do like the Yankees,
though I go first five because you almost guarantee yourself
that they're the Giants are only facing a left handed
pitcher unless Free doesn't go five innings, which is possible,
but TV thinks he's going longer than that, and again
it's it's hard to disagree. So kind of how I'm
seeing this one. No bet for me here, Yeah, it's
just it's one of many, right, it is on Netflix,
but it's one of many, So you know, nothing for
me in this game, Brian, if you had something to add,
go ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I just wanted to point out everybody's all excited.
They're chopping it to bet this game. Got a just
about a full slate of games tomorrow, and then we've
got more games on Friday. Uh, just don't don't let
your bank roll. I'm betting a game just to force
it because it's on TV. I have I'm not going
to give my clients anything on tonight's game. There's much
better opportunities coming up. And hey, you play hundred sixty
two games in the season, no need to force anything
on the first day.
Speaker 3: Very true, there are some if you if you really
want to put some pizza money on some things. I
generally am more successful on pitcher props than I am
on hitter props.
Speaker 1: But I see.
Speaker 3: Someone in the comments saying under in the hits and stuff.
I'm protecting both of these pictures to give up five
hits each, so I would be careful betting under on hits. Again,
I'll go back to what I said earlier, But judge
is I think three for seven with a home run
against Web, and Arise has even better numbers against against Freed.
Matter of fact, Web, I think when twelve innings and
gave up seven earned against the Yankees last year. So
be careful betting unders. But yes, including the ballpark and
including the rusty hitters, things are conducive to and under.
But just yeah, like Brian said, don't go crazy. Go
crazy the day after tomorrow or tomorrow, not today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And also, how do you bet like a made
for TV baseball event? Like I don't really think we've
seen I mean we've seen the We used to do
the opening night right, Like that was a thing for
a while where you'd have like a Sunday night Baseball
opening night game when baseball used to open on a Monday.
But this is like this is new. We haven't really
seen this before, so I'm kind of interested to just
to see how this plays out. You know, it's almost
going to be more of a spectacle than anything, but
it's a great way to start the season again. I'll say,
like putting baseball on Netflix, having the eyes on it,
good for the game.
Speaker 2: I will one quick note regarding Thursday and Friday. We
do have a basketball tournament going on right now, which
everybody and their brother is going to be wanting to
bet on the going to want to watch it. That
gives us baseball people a better chance of making money.
But because there's not as much money in the market,
and we'll be able to see where the lines go,
see where the suppose the wise guys are betting, and
there's not going to be a lot of people who
are going to be looking to bet on the Clayland Guardians,
as you pointed out before, on a day we'll look
at the NCAA tournament going on. So I'm not saying
don't bet this game or whatever, but the next two
days is where we can make some money.
Speaker 3: There are a couple of little spots here that you
could get, like I said, Judge and Arias to get
a hit or a hit Run RBI. You know, some
pizza money here just to make it more fun. But
like some people in the comments are saying, it's not
actually a TV game, it's a Netflix game, and actually
the World Baseball Classic, if I can just digress for
a minute, since there's only one game, the World Baseball
Classic in Japan was bought by Netflix and nobody got
to watch it and everyone was kicked off, So nobody
likes Netflix in Japan. Yeah, Netflix, Japan the World Baseball Classics,
and wow, if you didn't have Netflix, you could not watch.
Speaker 2: It, not being able to catch your games.
Speaker 3: I think that they lost anyway, Japan expects to win
it every year and they lost it.
Speaker 1: So I think the difference in in this country is
like almost everyone has Netflix now. It's like it's almost
like more people probably have Netflix than they do cable.
So it's like, you know, I actually think that the
the viewer. If you look at some of the Netflix
viewership numbers from like the NFL games and stuff they
put on there, they're very high, So I I'd imagine
this this game does very strong sort of viewership numbers.
But it's yeah, it's interesting, and that's very interesting. TV
that's a I would have never known that that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Amazon Prime is big out here, but Netflix is not.
Speaker 1: A couple more tidbits and and so here's the here's
what we're gonna do. This is you know, we've got
about thirty minutes left of today's show, and it's and
it's just gonna be the chat and and anything you
guys want to know. So a couple I'm gonna scroll
through a couple of chat questions. First of all, people
think the thumbnail is insane of us three they someone
called it creepy. I think I think that's all the
Wager talk thumbnails now. I think are like almost like
somewhat character ceture, like tweaked versions. So I think we're
just we're just on brand there. Someone said it was creepy,
though I don't know if I would say creepy. It
does like I looked at myself. I'm like, I don't
look like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, just like a couple of minutes ago.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they make us slick a little better than we
do in real life.
Speaker 1: Maybe, I mean I h so jack fulk real quick
says not everyone plays tomorrow. Yeah, they did sort of
break out opening day. Opening day is almost a two
day event now, so it's like I do think some
Actually no, I don't think any teams are playing both days.
I'm pretty sure everyone either plays Thursday or Friday. So
open Opening Days is essentially a two day thing. That's
why not everyone plays tomorrow. Andy Lang, Baseball is back today.
It sure is. We just talked about the only game
that's going to go today, but we will. You know,
we'll be back every day now Monday through Friday, nine
am Eastern here for total Bases. And then I do
think that we are being incorporated somehow into the weekend programming,
whether it be I think maybe part of Last Call.
I'm not sure, but you're probably gonna get a six
days a week now, so that's something to look forward
to as well. Yeah, there's a yeah, someone's thumbnail so creepy.
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, if someone must buy Brian an industrial
alarm clock to wake up every day before six am,
that would be a nice Christmas gift.
Speaker 1: If you click on it, that's all that matters. So
that's that's the that's the goal of the thumbnail. We
just need it to be clicked up. And here's it.
Here's an interesting Uh, I'm gonna go to Andy, and
I think this starts an interesting discussion. He says, best
future bet for me most wins by a team under
one oh four and a half. Now, that is very
interesting to me because I believe the Dodgers have the
highest projected season win total under one oh three and
a half I think is what it was. I'm going
off the zepin there, and then the next team after
that is much lower than that. I don't think anyone
has a projection higher than ninety one, ninety and a
half ninety one. So Andy says best future bet for
me most wins under for one oh four and a half.
I kind of want both you guys to weigh in
on this, and I'll start with Brian Leonard first because Brian,
you were the one that was sort of last year.
Like listen, the Dodgers don't really care about the regular season,
so they they I almost sort of gravitate towards their
underseason win total. So unless you think someone else is
going to so far outperform their win total that they're
going over the Dodgers projected win total, then Andy probably
has a winner. Talk to me about that in general,
and if you agree or disagree.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the way I would play this, Andy, You've got
thirty teams or whatever in Major League Baseball. Any team,
you're taking your shot on thirty teams, not going over
the number, and it's only costing you a one game.
It's like we said, the Dodgers are a one oh
three and a half. The Dodgers don't care to win
a lot of regular season games. We saw that last year.
I believe they didn't even win the division. So I
would rather play the Dodgers under the one oh three
and a half and eliminate Let's say let's say Baltimore
is the team this year. They're a young team, they
get on hot streak, they want to continue to win.
They will push for more wins. The other teams will
push for more wins. The Dodgers will not push for
more wins. I think that you're giving up one game
on that, but you're eliminating the rest of the league.
So I would play the Dodgers under one oh three
and a half, and and that is something I like
myself for a total anyway for myself, So to me,
I don't want to disagree with Andy, but I think
that's a different way to play it, and I think
it's probably a better way to play.
Speaker 1: You're a you're a Dodgers guy, Are you going under
with the Dodgers or do you think they win more
games than that?
Speaker 3: Not exactly a Dodgers guy, but I do think they
are a juggernaut. But I agree with Brian. I've been
burned two seasons in a row with the Dodgers betting
their win total over actually put a little one percent
flyer on the Dodgers to break the two thousand and
one Seattle Mariners record of one hundred and fourteen wins.
I think it was last year and they didn't even
break a hundred, So I totally agree with Brian. The
Dodgers don't give a rats behind about the regular season.
They want to keep their guys healthy, and they don't
really care how many games they win. They do want
to win their division, so if it gets tight with
the Padres down as it has been the last two seasons,
the Padres have given them a run for their money
in the last week of the season to win the division.
But let's face that, the Dodgers don't care if they
win one hundred games. They care about winning their division
and getting in the playoffs healthy, and last year the
Dodgers weren't even the highest win total team. I think
it was the Brewers, right or the Tigers? Was that
the Brewers or the Tigers last year? And I would
definitely bet no team will win one hundred and four
games this year. I don't guarantee it's a win, but
I certainly would make that bad.
Speaker 1: Another reason that that makes a lot of sense, in
my opinion, is the very worst teams, the bottom teams
in Major League Baseball, in my opinion, are not as
bad as last year, like they're theoretically the Rockies. The
Rockies could still be the worst team in the league.
And I think I think they win far more games
than they did last year, like they they could. I mean,
they're probably gonna win fifteen to twenty more games than
they did last year, and it and they could still
be the worst team in the league. So if you
look at it like that, it's like, Okay, so those
wins have to come from somewhere. Maybe they come from
the middle of the pack, but like they also could
they could come from anywhere. And that's twenty wins that's
likely coming out of that pool of wins for someone
to win more than one hundred and four games, so
and I think, like, so, I'm just gonna transition this
into Jack Fulk saying, can we talk about the Chicago
White Sox and what my outlook is on them? I Adam, Well,
here's the thing I sort of pointed out last year
that I liked I liked this team, and I thought
they were like pretty undervalued in the market. I was
pretty much right about that from a especially when you
when you factored in playing against the one and a
half red astat somewhere.
Speaker 2: The other day.
Speaker 1: They were fifteen and thirty six in one run games
last year, So that's you know that one and a half,
Like White Sox, one and a half kind of was
a great bet because there was a lot of scenarios
where the money line did not win, but the plus
one and a half cashed and on a game in
a game out basis, it was almost always minus one
ten minus won fifteen sometimes plus money, So it was
a very good bet as far as this year is concerned. Though,
here's what I'll say about the White Sox. I don't
think they are I don't think they're the worst team
in the American League, which is where they're priced right now.
I think it's possible that they're not one of the
worst five teams in Major League Baseball. I think the
I think they are is five teams that the White
Sox are legitimately better than this year. So my take
on the White Sox, I'm going to be on them
again relative to market. I am much higher on the
White Sox than when they where they are being priced.
And hey, some of those some of that, you know,
some of those close losses might turn in the wins.
You could have a big jump here for the White Sox.
You're nodding, Brian, go ahead, jump in on the White Sox.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you just mentioned what was it, fifteen
and thirty six and one run games.
Speaker 1: That's might I have written down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's normally and you find it in hockey too,
when when you go to when you go to overtime
and shootouts and that kind of thing. Teams that are
really good are really bad in one round games unless
you have a terrible bullpen or in elite bullpens like
Cleveland's usually pretty good because they've always had really good bullpens,
they're pretty good in these one run games. So you
have to start off not with fifteen and thirty six.
You have to start off at an even number of
fifty percent. I'd say Chicgo White Sox. Let's say they're
expected to win forty five percent of the games. Then
you figure out what that number is. That's what the
number should be. Then you have to look at okay,
or what have they done in the back of the bullpen. Well,
they brought in uh Domingos and he's better than what
they've had. He's not great. He tends to walk the
lot of people, but that's one of the ways you
got to look at it. You also have to look
at the runs. If your team, like last year, Houston
had a winning record and I believe they're off scored
by five runs on the season, So you don't start
with Houston's record last year. You have to start about
the net run So basically you would say Houston was
an eighty one win ball club last year. And when
you do that, then you take a look at what
they brought in, what is going from them, and then
you decide on how many wins they should have. And
there's plenty of websites other fangrafts. Does a terrific job.
A lot of the baseball websites will do that for you,
so you don't have to do the research.
Speaker 1: Brian, I want to stay with you for a second
because I got a follow up question. It's Jack balk Here.
He says White Sox won't finish last in the Al Central. Okay,
that's a pretty hot take, but I don't disagree with it.
My question to you is who is and is it
the Guardians? That's my question. Why do you, Brian like that?
I think it's a legitimate question. Team.
Speaker 2: That's how I pick on, you know, other guys with
their teams. I think the Guardians are better than this wins,
but I do like some of the guys the Twins have.
I mean, Abel, you've talked about him in the past,
your top on that he's been great. They sent one
of their better pitchers, which was one of their sent
him down to the minors. He so they I think
the Twins are going to be better than they were.
But I still don't think I played Cleveland under the
seventy eight and a half or whatever it was. I
think Minnesota probably wins seventy five and so I would
think they're in the last time, I actually think the
White Sox will have a better record than the Cleveland Guardians.
Speaker 1: Maybe I want to come to you for this. It's
kind of a follow up to this, but it's we're
gonna we're gonna pan it out a little bit, uh, Tim, Tim? Tim?
Tim wants to know who are the five worst teams
in Major League Baseball? So, in your opinion, TV, who
are the five worst teams in the league right now?
In your power ratings?
Speaker 3: Okay, I didn't prepare for this question, but off the
top of my head, let me first say that I
don't think the Rockies are the worst team in MLB.
I think that will go to the what's that me?
Speaker 1: Agree with you?
Speaker 3: Okay? I think that that honor goes to the Washington
Nationals in my opinion? You agree? Okay? So I think
I think if we if we had to group him
in a five, I I, you know, I think the
one team that's that's risen above being a bad team
is the Miami Marlins. So I don't think they're in
that that five. So I would say the Rockies, the
White Sox, the Guardians, Angels probably, and I really can't
think of a fifth off the top of my head,
because then after those teams, I think you get into
like a muck of a bunch of mediocrity, and it's
it's who's more mediocre. I can't really think of a
fifth off the top of my head, but I would
those four teams pop into my head pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: Brian, I'm gonna ask you a question. Is the Cardinals
in your bottom five? And talk about Saint Louis?
Speaker 3: I forgot they lost Nolan Arenado and they're just gonna
be horrible this year, aren't they.
Speaker 2: You know, I hope a lot of people think that
way because I like this team. You take a look.
They've had a lot of young talent, They're gonna run.
They play in a pretty good pitcher's park. If I
was to play, so bet on who which team would
have the worst record in baseball depending on the odds,
and I don't have them right in front of me,
would be the Angels. The Angels are a team that
everybody on that they're not gonna be able to have
a pitching staff. Yanks was supposed to be their next
closer up he got hurt yesterday. They're bringing in retreads
from the eighties. I mean the Angels got They're one
of the older teams at baseball. They're a terrible defensive team,
terrible pitching team, and they're in a division where they
don't have a chance. And I see them being pretty
active at the trade deadline getting rid of some of
these veteran players. The Angels right now, you know, I've
got it projected to win seventy two point eight games.
That to me is a bargain. The Rockies are about
a sixty one point six. But I think the Rockies
are a better Like you said, I think they're a
better team the Angels. I see reasons for the Rockies
to be good the Nationals. I agree that bullpen in
the Nationals. Are you ever going to play the Nationals
game this year? You got to play the first five
and or you play the over I like the Cardinals,
I like the White Sox. The Angels are the team
that I think you could make some money betting against
them all season long. And yeah, you're not going to
have the same team at the end of the season
that you see right now TV.
Speaker 4: I'm going to will eventually get injured too, and he's
their only good players. Sorry, go ahead, I'm gonna throw
this back to you, but I want to make I
want to agree with your I've got the Nationals as
the worst team in the league, so I agree with
you there, Brian.
Speaker 1: I've got the Angels as the worst team in the
American League. So I'm hoping to find some value there
because I think there's a little bit of like those teams,
just because the Nationals have had some recent success and
the Angels always sort of seem to be priced higher
than the market should. I don't know if it's because
of Trout or whatever. It may be big market like
I'm hoping that, like, because I'm going to target those two.
I think they're the worst two teams in baseball. The Angels.
Last year, I think their run differential, off the top
of my head was close to one set. What is
it one, Brian, You have it right there. What's sixty four?
Speaker 2: Yeah, something like that. It was terrible, And that tells
you how bad a team it is. When you're getting
blown out like that. You can win a lot of
like if you'r hockey player, hockey team, you win a
lot of three two two one games, but then they
lose ten to enough on and they say the they
were two and one. No, they were out scoring pretty badly,
so you got to keep that in mind in baseball too.
Speaker 1: So TV, where what I was getting at is, see,
here's the thing. The Rockies are still likely in the
bottom five, Like even with a big jump, even with
them being a team you want to target in daily betting,
even with a big jump, they're likely not out of
the bottom five. So if we have if we have Angels, Nationals, Rockies,
who are the other two teams? For me? I'm with Brian,
I kind of like, I think I'm higher than the
market on the Cardinals. They're gonna be bad, but I
don't think they're bottom five bad. It could be the
White Sox down there, even though I think they could
outperform that I'm gonna go. And you know, I'm pretty
low on the Guardians, so I think the Guardians could
flirt with it. The other team that I think is
in the bottom five, And this is where I'm gonna
throw it to you, Tokyo Brandon. I'm out on the A's.
I just don't think the A's are a great baseball team.
They have no pitching, some interesting hitters on that in
that team, and they're gonna be fun. But their pitching
is bad, very bad. Starting pitching is bad unless a
bunch of guys come up from the farm system. I
think they could be a bottom five team. So what
do you talk to me a bit where you're at
on the AM I way off there, because a lot
of people are high on this team.
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I don't think you're off. But
the A's are a team I think. I always like
to judge a team by who they're putting out on
opening Day, so you can tell a bad team because
it's kind of like, that's the best you got, you know,
And Severarino is the best you got, really, you know.
I mean he's not an ace by any means, by
any stretch of the imagination. They have a couple of
good bullpen arms, and they have a great rote, a
great lineup. Though we've talked about the A's as a
surging young team who's going to be around for a
long time. I don't like their prospects of making the playoffs,
let alone having a winning record, but uh, they're They're
gonna have a lot of overs. This team in that ballpark,
and with that lineup and with that rotation, I expect
a lot of overs with the.
Speaker 1: A's this year, this year, this season, Brian, So first
of all, just pointing out that Jack agrees with you.
His his comment was already in the chat before you
said that overs in Sacramento. Yeah, just to go back
to like Sacramento, you you brought up Severino. He just
had a pretty good World Baseball Classic. No, so like
this is like a thing where it's like, and I'll
go to Brian for this one. Guys that just sort
of showed out in the World Baseball Classic. Well, you
fade those guys early in the season, like Severino's pitching
in Sacramento where he has like a ten e R,
Like he's not gonna come out and throw a hundred
like you. He was all jacked up throwing I think
ninety nine one hundred at points in time. That's gonna
be a good fade right early in the season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Yeah, Brandon talked about it about what
they what they went through, and it was clear you
talk about, well is that the best you got? Well
that's what I was thinking, and I and I told
my wife, I says, we've got Paul Schemes on the
Moms and they've got uh, whatever. Yeah, Sabar are the Diamondbacks. Rodriguez,
I mean, I got but that was like the last
day of work, and you want to prove with all
all your teammates that, uh, they put me the right choice.
They pitched great, congratulations to them. I don't I play
a lot of fancy baseball. I'm not running out to
get either one of those guys on my fantasy teams.
Let's just put it that way.
Speaker 3: But get a lot of Oakland batters on your fantasy team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, TV, you're you you're spot on there because
that is I mean, listen, they're they're gonna hit. That
lineup has a lot of I mean, there's a lot
of offensive talent. And then you go just think about
this for a second, Like if they're pitching is as
bad as I think it could be. Think of how
many games the A's might be in where they're down
nine to three and then suddenly you're you're facing a
like depth reliever in the in the final innings of
the game. So if you want to talk about like
individual batter statistics for the A's or maybe targeting like
player props, I think they could be in some pretty
lopsided or just like slug best type games that are
higher scoring, but still I think they're going to be
like behind a lot and that could be good for
offensive statistics.
Speaker 3: Some lineups that are very underrated that could make massive
production or the A's And I like the Miami Marlins
to score a lot of runs too. Not a lot
of household names on that on that roster, but a
lot of young guys who can who can belt it.
So those two teams I expect to see some good things.
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you want to do you want to talk
about the Marlins for a second, because they're an interesting
team to me. I'm I'm kind of a little higher
than where the market is on the Marlins. I love
Peter Bendix. I talked about it a ton last year.
Brian was actually the first person to bring that up
last year in terms of like what he's kind of
doing in the farm system. And you know, they're not
I don't think they're a playoff team by any means,
but they could certainly outperform where they're at in the market.
So yeah, talk to me. What do you like about
the Marlins?
Speaker 3: I mean, I like their rotation and I like the
fact their pitching is good, and I like their win
total was. I believe it was seventy two or seventy three,
and I put I don't do a lot of futures
this I didn't do a lot of futures this year
because I've been burned so many times by especially the Dodgers,
doing futures. But this year I did bet the Miami
Marlins team total over because I just think they made
a lot of good moves. They seem to have a
smartpront office, and they got good pitching. Anytime you got
good pitching, you have a chance. So I certainly like
their chances to go over seventy three wins. I believe
it was, so Yeah, I certainly liked that bet.
Speaker 1: Jack Folks has TV swallowing the Marcie juice. That's what
that pink drink is. Hey, I'll take some of that.
I think he's going to be a great player. I
think he's going to be a great player, Brian Brian
Collin says, Thomas White's going to be a dude. Okay,
So Thomas White got called up to Jacksonville, had had
a good, a really good sort of August September last year,
kind of I think he kind of shot through the ranks.
He was in Pensacola, quickly in Jacksonville, did well at
each step. What I've noticed about the Marlins is they
seem to be accumulating these pitchers that can be that
that can almost just be there like three four inning
type guys, where they have a bunch of guys that
they might not be. They might have not had a
ton of great starting pitching, but it's almost like they
have a collection of guys that can go out and
like throw four innings. And I kind of like that
because I think that's where baseball is headed in general,
away from like the traditional starting pitcher. So do you
want to comment on that, because I that's one thing
I love about the Marlins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, They've got a lot of depth in the in
the minors, and they have that ability. I always say
the average manager League Baseball team uses ten different pitchers.
They sent Braxton Garrett back down to stretch him out
a little bit. He's coming back from the surgery. They've
got a lot of guys and and Thomas White is
one of them. Is a bright future there. But I
do want to point out that management says we're going
to be out of here pretty soon. So let's we'll
have plenty of time to talk about the teams as
it goes on for the season.
Speaker 1: So let's here's the thing. So for today, for today,
I we're not gonna do a parlay today because there's
one So here's the thing. We're not gonna do a
parlay today because there's one game. Typically by this point
in the show, we'd already be at best bets. But
this is not the normal show. There's no This will
be the only day we don't do a parlay because
we're not going to give you a three game, a
three team parlay in one game that we all basically
said you probably shouldn't bet. So you know that's that's
we're not going to do that. I will, however, go
to you, Brian. Do you is there any bet long
term future win total that you want to share with
the with the viewers today.
Speaker 2: Well, I put this off in today's game. If you're
looking to take us, I just actually want to say
I kind of disagree with regards to the starting pitcher
for the Yankees. If you take a look at I
follow John in Pittsburgh, a guy who does fantasy baseball stuff.
He's very good he went back and looked. In the
first start of a season, your starters usually throw six
less pitches. By the time they get to the third start,
they're back to their season whatever what will be their
season average. So are you gonna get six less pitches
out of the starters today? Which means probably one batter
and one batter when you're over under in outs means
a lot. And you can get under the fifteen and
a half right now without laying any juice. So I'm
guy kind of like the under in the star in
the Yankee sharter for I just don't think he's going
to be there. Also for anybody, and I know Brandon
does this a lot, or he'll play will this pitcher
get the win? Keep in mind the first time through
the through the league, these guys aren't build up yet,
so they may throw one hundred normally they'll throw eighty now,
which means they may not even get to five innings.
So if you want to take somebody who's like the
long reliever for a team, and if you can find
a spot on that said, will so and so get
the win today? He might be like the Dodgers talk
about piggybacking and things like that for a Tani starts,
take whoever the piggyback is and bet against Otani getting
the win because chances already won't go five minutes.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'll give out a bet for this game. I
like DoD Dodgers. What am I talking about? I like
the Yankees on the money line, and I broke it
down in my video that's on wager Talks YouTube channel.
I have a five percent play for tomorrow, and I
actually broke down all of the over under game totals
on my Twitter x account, so if you go there
you can see my breakdown of that. We don't have
time to go over all of it, and tomorrow we
will cover a lot of this stuff. So if there
was a parlay leg, I would say Yankees money line.
I think minus one seventeen for a max free start.
I don't care if he's on the road or not.
And I don't think Web is that trustworthy against these batters,
So that's how I would go. I like the Yankee
bullpen better and I like their lineup better.
Speaker 1: I haven't looked at the price. I'm sure it's more
expensive in the full game, but I think if I
was going to play this game. I'd have to look
at Yankees first five. I just like the idea of
getting Freed or getting the Giants only against the lefty,
which is what I think I would get if I
bet Yankees first five, because again, like you know, Freed
may Hey, maybe he doesn't go for five, but he's
probably gonna go five, four or five. I think that's
like a fair sort of you know, I agree with
Brian in the respect that you're gonna see I don't
think you're going to see like a ton of like
extended outings from anyone in March and early April. But
if if a guy's economical and he's throwing it well,
and especially someone like like three, he's obviously going to
be out there for at least five innings. So you
get the Giants against a lefty. I think that's a
good way to play against the Giants. They were bottom
five against left handed pitching, I believe all of last year,
and it's it's a lot of the same lineup. So
I'm kind of with you there, TV. I will just
get go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 2: Your first five, you're paying about nickel Moore, you're paying
about one twenty five.
Speaker 1: That's not bad is.
Speaker 3: How often this season do you think you'll see a
Max Freed start at minus one seventeen. It's probably going
to be rare.
Speaker 2: That's dominant that entire division.
Speaker 3: You know that. I know that they're priced like they are.
They're priced like they are though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but if they're on the road at Boston with
Crochet going, he's not a one time.
Speaker 3: But my point is that the bookmakers price them too
high than they actually are.
Speaker 1: Well, that's a great point. And I think since I'm
not I don't have a bet to give out today,
I'm not betting futures in baseball. I haven't done that
for years. And I could do a whole a whole
segment on why I think it's crazy to tie your
money up for six months on a season win total.
When organizations bail on a team when they're two games,
you know, sometimes a couple of games outlook the Twins
last year. But like, starting pitching has never meant less
to the number in my opinion, Like listen, I got
I get it, guys like there's outliers, a guy like
Skiens someone like that, But like, for the most part,
I've never waited starting pitching less. So again, It's like,
I do think you'll see scenarios where Freed is in
that price range, and it's like, you really, if you're
betting a full nine INNY Major League Baseball game at
this point, you have to have so many more factors
in your handicap other than the starting pitcher. They just
don't go deepen up, and I think you're gonna see
teams gravitate toward almost like what I could see the
Marlins doing, where it's like three or four inning guy
followed by three or four inning guy. We saw other
teams do it last year as well, So you know,
I'm really sort of I guess that's my big grand
takeaway here. I'm not waiting the starting pitchers nearly as
much as I used to. And the reason for that
is I think the books still do it. I think
that's the point that Tokyo Brandon was trying to make there.
The books still do that, and that's just not how
the game is played anymore.
Speaker 2: Well, the public, the public does it. The books. The
books trying to battle the public. Thanks. This guy's a starter,
and as good as he's been, and he's a very
good picture, He's he's not a number one on a
lot of teams. Let's just put it that way.
Speaker 1: Cool, think I gotta say that I'll tell alliots or
Andy's question with the final like minute we have here,
so uh, come out and tell Adam his take on
not betting futures is wrong. I don't mean betting futures
is wrong. Listen. I'm fine with taking a position on
like a team to win a division and stuff like
that like that. That's fine. I'm not gonna argue with you.
I do think that the takeout is probably pretty big.
But whatever you want to you want to find value in,
like let's say, like the Rangers to win the AL
West because you want to oppose the Marin or something
like that. That's fine. I'm saying like this whole like
the season win total, like this whole thing where like
ten years ago, shows like this. You know, guys come
on and tell you how great a season win total
bet is, because it's like you get one hundred and
sixty two games with the amount of injuries now and
organizations willing to just scrap a season because something doesn't
go their way in the first couple of months. I
just I can find you a better minus one ten
bet on a Korean baseball game, or a minor league
game or a game. Why why would you tie your
money up for six months for that?
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Brian, That's exactly your last point was exactly
why I don't do it like I used to. You're
tying your money up for six months. And granted what, yeah,
you may you have a better advantage on that than
you do for the regular seat or for the regular
season games. But even if you're putting five percent of
your bank role on that and you're you're a plus
TV better, that five percent at the end of the
season is probably one hundred percent of your back so
on what you could have made. So that's the only
if you could play it a credit pas.
Speaker 1: Get a Japanese baseball play from TB. It's got to
I guarantee you that minus one ten has a bigger
edge than your season win total if.
Speaker 3: You tie up. If you tie up your money for
six months with a bank, they pay you interest. The
books aren't paying you no interest.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's there's just way too much uncertainty
you're just not getting I never win too much uncertainty.
I never win over every year, not this same we
have we have hit. This was you know, this was
kind of just to come on. We're back, break down
the one game tonight, and hit the chat for thirty
minutes to talk about whatever you guys want to talk about. Tomorrow,
back to the normal show, nine am Eastern. We're gonna
hit as many games as possible, and we're still obviously
gonna gonna go off the chat as much as we
possibly can, so we will be back nine am tomorrow
and nine am every day this week. We appreciate you
joining us. We're thrilled baseball season. It's back. I guess
the two part Opening Day show tomorrow and Friday for
the for the forty eight hour opening day that is
now Major League Baseball. Enjoy the game tonight and we'll
see you guys in the morning for more Total Bases