1
00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:07,719
Speaker 1: All right, Welcome in everybody. It is so weird that

2
00:00:07,799 --> 00:00:13,039
baseball starts tonight on Netflix, a Netflix special to start

3
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,600
the season. It's back. It's March twenty fifth, and Major

4
00:00:17,679 --> 00:00:23,160
League Baseball opens up tonight. Yankees Giants. I'm thrilled to

5
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,120
be back with you, guys. I feel like I haven't

6
00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,800
seen you in forever, and now I get to see

7
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:32,159
you every basically every day, man until like the end

8
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,520
of October. I couldn't be more excited about it. Welcome back.

9
00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,719
How have you guys been. I haven't seen either of

10
00:00:38,799 --> 00:00:41,560
you while beat Brian Leonard, how's everything going? And then

11
00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:42,200
we'll go to TV.

12
00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:44,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, everything's going well. Got to see some guys I

13
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,119
haven't seen it in a while. Last night, Rob Vino's

14
00:00:47,119 --> 00:00:52,799
sons band, Gray Scale, was in town, so Ski, Teddy Sabranski, Robbino,

15
00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,280
obviously myself. We were down there last night and had

16
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,359
a good time. So it's good to finally see some

17
00:00:58,399 --> 00:00:59,840
faces I haven't seen in a while.

18
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,320
Speaker 1: I'm so jealous of that. By the way, I saw

19
00:01:03,399 --> 00:01:06,760
you guys there. I've listened to Rob's son's band. They're awesome.

20
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,239
I was very jealous that I was not out there

21
00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,359
for that. But yeah, that's that's awesome. TV. How's everything

22
00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:14,319
in your neck of the woods?

23
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, everything's going well.

24
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:18,439
Speaker 2: I did.

25
00:01:18,719 --> 00:01:22,400
Speaker 3: I'm always jealous of Brian. He sends me videos and

26
00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:24,959
of concerts he goes to. And Brian and I actually

27
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,120
have similar musical taste. We went to a concert together

28
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:33,159
two years ago as a matter of fact. So but yeah,

29
00:01:33,159 --> 00:01:35,599
things are going well. Glad baseball's back. I already have

30
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,359
tickets to six Japanese games out here that I'm gonna

31
00:01:39,359 --> 00:01:41,400
be going to in the next week or so. So

32
00:01:42,599 --> 00:01:47,959
my favorite time of year. Yeah, everyone's everyone, even the

33
00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:52,079
Royals and there, even the Guardians think they have a

34
00:01:52,159 --> 00:01:54,040
chance to win the World Series this time of year,

35
00:01:54,079 --> 00:01:57,079
so it's it's uh, it's always the best time of

36
00:01:57,159 --> 00:02:00,599
year for baseball fans. Opening Days great. I don't like

37
00:02:00,599 --> 00:02:02,959
how they're doing it this year. One game and then

38
00:02:03,159 --> 00:02:05,519
the rest of the games the next day, but you know,

39
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,520
what are you gonna do? You know, March Madness, it's

40
00:02:08,599 --> 00:02:11,800
it's kind of overlapping with March Madness, kind of weird scheduling,

41
00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:13,599
but I'm just glad it's back.

42
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 1: You know, TV. I kind of my initial reaction was

43
00:02:17,599 --> 00:02:21,120
the same as yours in that regard. And I gotta

44
00:02:21,159 --> 00:02:24,479
say though, I love the fact that like they're almost

45
00:02:24,479 --> 00:02:26,479
doing like a Netflix special. I think it's good for

46
00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,680
the game. It's good exposure. I think it's gonna be

47
00:02:28,719 --> 00:02:31,400
like goofy to see like a bunch of celebrities and

48
00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,479
WWE superstars at the you know, the opener of Major

49
00:02:35,599 --> 00:02:39,639
League Baseball. But hey, anything to get more eyes on

50
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,599
the game is great. And then of course tomorrow is

51
00:02:42,599 --> 00:02:46,240
is opening day, and so what you know, quick programming note,

52
00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:51,319
before we get into tonight's one game, we're gonna be you.

53
00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,599
So tomorrow we're back nine am, normal show, the show

54
00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,919
we usually do. Today, we're gonna talk Yankees Giants the

55
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,280
only game tonight, and then the rest of the time

56
00:03:00,319 --> 00:03:06,080
we'll hit futures questions on teams. You know, for me,

57
00:03:06,159 --> 00:03:08,319
I don't really bet win totals anymore, and I got

58
00:03:08,319 --> 00:03:10,000
my reasons why I do want to hear about that.

59
00:03:10,039 --> 00:03:12,520
But it's like more or less team outlooked stuff like that,

60
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,240
and we'll do that for the remaining thirty minutes or

61
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,360
so in the show. So that's that's kind of the plan.

62
00:03:19,039 --> 00:03:21,680
I guess, without further ado, I'll go to you first,

63
00:03:21,719 --> 00:03:25,199
Brian Leonard Yankees Giants. We have a baseball game to

64
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,840
bet on tonight. Anything cats your eye here, sider total.

65
00:03:31,439 --> 00:03:33,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to keep in mind these teams have

66
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,400
just gotten out of a spring training, a lot of

67
00:03:36,439 --> 00:03:40,159
them because of the the Great Tournament. By the way,

68
00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:45,039
they're not really built up. So you're going to see,

69
00:03:45,719 --> 00:03:50,719
like normally you want your batters to take fifty fifty

70
00:03:50,759 --> 00:03:53,639
eight beats and you want your pitchers to have enough

71
00:03:53,759 --> 00:03:57,039
innings pitched. And with that going on, I've seen a

72
00:03:57,039 --> 00:03:59,479
lot of a lot of coaches come out and say

73
00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,639
that we're going to start slow with this guy because

74
00:04:02,639 --> 00:04:06,599
he's not fully stretched out and all. So that's something

75
00:04:06,639 --> 00:04:11,199
to keep in mind here regarding this game. Obviously, the

76
00:04:11,319 --> 00:04:14,960
Yankees have not traveled west, and they're traveling west for

77
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,680
the first time all season long. They they played down

78
00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:20,959
in Florida in spring training, so that's something a little

79
00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:23,199
bit different for him. It's first travel and it's all

80
00:04:23,199 --> 00:04:26,920
the way across the country, and it's a team in

81
00:04:26,959 --> 00:04:30,600
the Yankees who a lot of people thought disappointed last

82
00:04:30,639 --> 00:04:35,519
year and they've got something to really shoot for. The Giants,

83
00:04:35,519 --> 00:04:38,519
on the other hand, are a team that just seems

84
00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,879
like every single year, nobody expects much out of you know,

85
00:04:42,319 --> 00:04:46,399
they're a five hundred ball club whatever, and they are

86
00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,680
a team that's done some things in the offseason. I

87
00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,480
think it's makes them better. So it's an interesting handicap,

88
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,279
and you're looking at a total of around seven in

89
00:04:57,319 --> 00:05:00,240
this game, And yeah, that makes a lot of sense

90
00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:04,680
based on the things that I have said. But even

91
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,040
though this is one of the ballparks that suppresses home run,

92
00:05:08,079 --> 00:05:12,319
suppresses runs for the most part, you get a couple

93
00:05:12,399 --> 00:05:15,720
guys on base, and both of these teams, especially the Yankees,

94
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,120
have guys that had that ability to just get up

95
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:19,839
there and make it a three run game right there

96
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,160
and hit a three run homer. So it's kind of

97
00:05:22,199 --> 00:05:27,439
tough when you are playing totals under seven unless you

98
00:05:27,639 --> 00:05:31,000
have bad hitting teams. Most of the time we'll see

99
00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,600
something like that when you've got like Pittsburgh on the

100
00:05:33,639 --> 00:05:36,360
Mama Skeins, and their offense obviously is better than it

101
00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:38,560
was in the past, but you figure you're only going

102
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,600
to score five and a half runs because of the offenses.

103
00:05:41,759 --> 00:05:45,600
San Francisco've got pretty good offense outside of San Francisco,

104
00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,439
and the Yankees obviously have one of the better, probably

105
00:05:48,439 --> 00:05:51,959
top two in Major League Baseball. So it's interesting from

106
00:05:51,959 --> 00:05:54,879
that standpoint as to what you're picking from a side

107
00:05:54,959 --> 00:05:57,720
or total in this game. I think the side of

108
00:05:57,759 --> 00:05:59,959
the total pretty much what I expected it to be.

109
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,199
So I am going to when it gets to be

110
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,079
time for my part of the parlor or whatever we're

111
00:06:06,079 --> 00:06:08,399
gonna talk about later. I think I'm gonna go with

112
00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,399
a prop on this game, and obviously just one game

113
00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:14,279
on the schedule, that may be the better way to play.

114
00:06:14,319 --> 00:06:16,600
Everybody in the world who bet sides and totles are

115
00:06:16,639 --> 00:06:18,319
gonna betting into this game, so the line is gonna

116
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:18,920
be pretty tight.

117
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:23,319
Speaker 3: Go after Brent.

118
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:25,399
Speaker 1: Is that how we're gonna do? Sure?

119
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,600
Speaker 3: I got a couple of opinions on this game. Yeah,

120
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,839
this is the only game I think there. There are

121
00:06:31,959 --> 00:06:35,399
a lot of people who are immediately jumping on unders here.

122
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,040
I'm not sure if that's the way to go. My

123
00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:43,120
projection comes out exactly at seven, so I don't like

124
00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,720
a full game over or under. The first five came

125
00:06:46,759 --> 00:06:49,240
out at four and a half, then it went down

126
00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,360
to four, then it went down to three and a half.

127
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,199
I would be a little wary playing under three and

128
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,519
a half in the first five, because I'm projecting both

129
00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,800
of these pitchers to give up two earned runs each.

130
00:07:01,319 --> 00:07:04,040
If you look at their history against the opposite batters,

131
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,399
Judge has done a bit of a number on Web

132
00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:14,120
in his career, and Freed has also been tagged by

133
00:07:14,199 --> 00:07:16,920
a Rise and a couple of other batters on the

134
00:07:16,959 --> 00:07:21,560
Giants side, so I would be a little wary going under. However,

135
00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:27,519
this ballpark is conducive to unders, and being the first

136
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,879
game of the season, everyone's rested, the bullpens are one

137
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,800
hundred percent, and the batters are slightly rusty coming out,

138
00:07:33,879 --> 00:07:35,839
So yeah, everything does point to an under, but I

139
00:07:35,839 --> 00:07:38,759
would be wary of that. I do like Max Freed

140
00:07:39,319 --> 00:07:41,959
to get some strikeouts here, and I looked at his

141
00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,120
over under at five and a half, but I actually

142
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,240
like the alt for that five plus. On DraftKings, they

143
00:07:49,319 --> 00:07:52,079
let you alt the strikeouts five to six plus seven

144
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,480
plus five plus is minus one sixty minus one seventy.

145
00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,240
I know it's a little juicy, but I'm pretty sure

146
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,040
he can get five s alright counts in this game.

147
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:05,000
I expect both pitchers to go past five innings here,

148
00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,120
so that would be one play that I certainly would

149
00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,759
think is a doable play. I broke it down in

150
00:08:11,839 --> 00:08:15,160
a video on wager Talk's YouTube page, so if you

151
00:08:15,199 --> 00:08:17,600
want more details on that, that's one way I would

152
00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,240
go on this. I have a couple of other opinions,

153
00:08:19,279 --> 00:08:22,759
but I'll throw it back to you for now. Adam Well,

154
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,839
I kind of agree with your Freed opinion. The Giants

155
00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,120
last year were not good against left handed pitching, and

156
00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,439
I don't know how much they've improved in that area.

157
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,039
So you know, you get a lefty like Freed, someone

158
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,519
that's had success against the Giants throughout his career. I

159
00:08:38,639 --> 00:08:42,960
definitely can't I can't sort of make a case against

160
00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,159
you know, anything you said about, you know, Freed maybe

161
00:08:45,159 --> 00:08:48,320
having success here. I also can't really make a case

162
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,159
against the under even though it's like what I will

163
00:08:51,159 --> 00:08:55,159
say is that line is very tight. Under seven does

164
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,000
not give you any room for error. I don't think

165
00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,919
it's a good bet because obviously, you know, you're there's

166
00:09:00,919 --> 00:09:04,440
so many sort of like things that could you know,

167
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,039
it's the first game of the year, it's it's it's

168
00:09:07,039 --> 00:09:08,840
the end of March. Who knows how guys, you know,

169
00:09:08,919 --> 00:09:11,519
sharp guys are gonna be But I mean, listen, if

170
00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:15,720
if if your two starters are who they are probably

171
00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:17,879
going to get to the later innings with a really

172
00:09:17,919 --> 00:09:19,840
good chance to hit that under that's a you know,

173
00:09:19,879 --> 00:09:21,679
where I'm at on both of these teams. This is

174
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,320
probably how a lot of my early season breakdowns will go,

175
00:09:24,879 --> 00:09:27,039
is where I'm at relative.

176
00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 1: To market on a team. And then you know, certainly today, tomorrow,

177
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,960
and then and then Friday, it's going to be where

178
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,919
I'm relative to where I think the market is going

179
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:37,720
to be, and then after that we'll kind of know

180
00:09:37,759 --> 00:09:40,039
where the market is. I think I'm a little higher

181
00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,559
on the Giants than most. I was high on this

182
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:45,639
team last year, and you know, I like the new manager,

183
00:09:45,879 --> 00:09:47,879
I like some of the guys they got this offseason.

184
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,759
I still think that they're likely better than they're getting

185
00:09:50,759 --> 00:09:52,720
credit for. And I'm almost always going to be lower

186
00:09:53,159 --> 00:09:56,879
on the Yankees because the Yankees are are probably you

187
00:09:56,879 --> 00:09:59,200
know from a name, They're always going to be inflated

188
00:09:59,639 --> 00:10:04,159
no matter matter what text. Yeah, so like for an

189
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,759
I mean, I made this like my Yankees minus one twelve.

190
00:10:06,759 --> 00:10:09,639
I don't really see any value on the on picking

191
00:10:09,639 --> 00:10:12,000
a side here. I think if you do like the Yankees,

192
00:10:12,039 --> 00:10:16,039
though I go first five because you almost guarantee yourself

193
00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,320
that they're the Giants are only facing a left handed

194
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,240
pitcher unless Free doesn't go five innings, which is possible,

195
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,159
but TV thinks he's going longer than that, and again

196
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,320
it's it's hard to disagree. So kind of how I'm

197
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,960
seeing this one. No bet for me here, Yeah, it's

198
00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,960
just it's one of many, right, it is on Netflix,

199
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,440
but it's one of many, So you know, nothing for

200
00:10:37,519 --> 00:10:39,639
me in this game, Brian, if you had something to add,

201
00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:40,000
go ahead.

202
00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. I just wanted to point out everybody's all excited.

203
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:47,320
They're chopping it to bet this game. Got a just

204
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,200
about a full slate of games tomorrow, and then we've

205
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,919
got more games on Friday. Uh, just don't don't let

206
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,000
your bank roll. I'm betting a game just to force

207
00:10:56,039 --> 00:10:59,240
it because it's on TV. I have I'm not going

208
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,639
to give my clients anything on tonight's game. There's much

209
00:11:02,639 --> 00:11:06,120
better opportunities coming up. And hey, you play hundred sixty

210
00:11:06,159 --> 00:11:09,159
two games in the season, no need to force anything

211
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:09,799
on the first day.

212
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,240
Speaker 3: Very true, there are some if you if you really

213
00:11:15,279 --> 00:11:17,240
want to put some pizza money on some things. I

214
00:11:17,399 --> 00:11:20,519
generally am more successful on pitcher props than I am

215
00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:21,480
on hitter props.

216
00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:23,559
Speaker 1: But I see.

217
00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,399
Speaker 3: Someone in the comments saying under in the hits and stuff.

218
00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,279
I'm protecting both of these pictures to give up five

219
00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:34,360
hits each, so I would be careful betting under on hits. Again,

220
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,759
I'll go back to what I said earlier, But judge

221
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,279
is I think three for seven with a home run

222
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:47,480
against Web, and Arise has even better numbers against against Freed.

223
00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,360
Matter of fact, Web, I think when twelve innings and

224
00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,879
gave up seven earned against the Yankees last year. So

225
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:59,519
be careful betting unders. But yes, including the ballpark and

226
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,960
including the rusty hitters, things are conducive to and under.

227
00:12:03,039 --> 00:12:06,080
But just yeah, like Brian said, don't go crazy. Go

228
00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,720
crazy the day after tomorrow or tomorrow, not today.

229
00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, And also, how do you bet like a made

230
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,320
for TV baseball event? Like I don't really think we've

231
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,440
seen I mean we've seen the We used to do

232
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,919
the opening night right, Like that was a thing for

233
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,000
a while where you'd have like a Sunday night Baseball

234
00:12:23,399 --> 00:12:26,000
opening night game when baseball used to open on a Monday.

235
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,879
But this is like this is new. We haven't really

236
00:12:29,919 --> 00:12:34,080
seen this before, so I'm kind of interested to just

237
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,799
to see how this plays out. You know, it's almost

238
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,159
going to be more of a spectacle than anything, but

239
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,279
it's a great way to start the season again. I'll say,

240
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,960
like putting baseball on Netflix, having the eyes on it,

241
00:12:46,039 --> 00:12:46,759
good for the game.

242
00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:51,879
Speaker 2: I will one quick note regarding Thursday and Friday. We

243
00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,759
do have a basketball tournament going on right now, which

244
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,399
everybody and their brother is going to be wanting to

245
00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,559
bet on the going to want to watch it. That

246
00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,519
gives us baseball people a better chance of making money.

247
00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:04,639
But because there's not as much money in the market,

248
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,919
and we'll be able to see where the lines go,

249
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,240
see where the suppose the wise guys are betting, and

250
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:12,799
there's not going to be a lot of people who

251
00:13:12,799 --> 00:13:15,320
are going to be looking to bet on the Clayland Guardians,

252
00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:19,080
as you pointed out before, on a day we'll look

253
00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:23,039
at the NCAA tournament going on. So I'm not saying

254
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,440
don't bet this game or whatever, but the next two

255
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:26,840
days is where we can make some money.

256
00:13:27,799 --> 00:13:30,320
Speaker 3: There are a couple of little spots here that you

257
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,799
could get, like I said, Judge and Arias to get

258
00:13:32,799 --> 00:13:35,679
a hit or a hit Run RBI. You know, some

259
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,120
pizza money here just to make it more fun. But

260
00:13:38,279 --> 00:13:40,879
like some people in the comments are saying, it's not

261
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,960
actually a TV game, it's a Netflix game, and actually

262
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,960
the World Baseball Classic, if I can just digress for

263
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,039
a minute, since there's only one game, the World Baseball

264
00:13:50,039 --> 00:13:53,080
Classic in Japan was bought by Netflix and nobody got

265
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,720
to watch it and everyone was kicked off, So nobody

266
00:13:55,799 --> 00:14:01,480
likes Netflix in Japan. Yeah, Netflix, Japan the World Baseball Classics,

267
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,120
and wow, if you didn't have Netflix, you could not watch.

268
00:14:03,919 --> 00:14:08,039
Speaker 2: It, not being able to catch your games.

269
00:14:09,799 --> 00:14:12,399
Speaker 3: I think that they lost anyway, Japan expects to win

270
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:13,799
it every year and they lost it.

271
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,679
Speaker 1: So I think the difference in in this country is

272
00:14:17,759 --> 00:14:21,519
like almost everyone has Netflix now. It's like it's almost

273
00:14:21,559 --> 00:14:24,399
like more people probably have Netflix than they do cable.

274
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,600
So it's like, you know, I actually think that the

275
00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,440
the viewer. If you look at some of the Netflix

276
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:33,799
viewership numbers from like the NFL games and stuff they

277
00:14:33,799 --> 00:14:36,080
put on there, they're very high, So I I'd imagine

278
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:40,159
this this game does very strong sort of viewership numbers.

279
00:14:40,639 --> 00:14:43,559
But it's yeah, it's interesting, and that's very interesting. TV

280
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,000
that's a I would have never known that that.

281
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, Amazon Prime is big out here, but Netflix is not.

282
00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:53,080
Speaker 1: A couple more tidbits and and so here's the here's

283
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,360
what we're gonna do. This is you know, we've got

284
00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:57,799
about thirty minutes left of today's show, and it's and

285
00:14:57,799 --> 00:15:01,039
it's just gonna be the chat and and anything you

286
00:15:01,039 --> 00:15:03,919
guys want to know. So a couple I'm gonna scroll

287
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,120
through a couple of chat questions. First of all, people

288
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:10,399
think the thumbnail is insane of us three they someone

289
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,360
called it creepy. I think I think that's all the

290
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:15,919
Wager talk thumbnails now. I think are like almost like

291
00:15:16,399 --> 00:15:20,799
somewhat character ceture, like tweaked versions. So I think we're

292
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,000
just we're just on brand there. Someone said it was creepy,

293
00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:26,519
though I don't know if I would say creepy. It

294
00:15:26,559 --> 00:15:28,399
does like I looked at myself. I'm like, I don't

295
00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:29,159
look like that.

296
00:15:29,399 --> 00:15:36,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, just like a couple of minutes ago.

297
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, they make us slick a little better than we

298
00:15:40,159 --> 00:15:40,879
do in real life.

299
00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:48,799
Speaker 1: Maybe, I mean I h so jack fulk real quick

300
00:15:48,799 --> 00:15:51,320
says not everyone plays tomorrow. Yeah, they did sort of

301
00:15:51,799 --> 00:15:54,879
break out opening day. Opening day is almost a two

302
00:15:54,919 --> 00:15:58,320
day event now, so it's like I do think some

303
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:03,000
Actually no, I don't think any teams are playing both days.

304
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:07,799
I'm pretty sure everyone either plays Thursday or Friday. So

305
00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,519
open Opening Days is essentially a two day thing. That's

306
00:16:11,519 --> 00:16:16,320
why not everyone plays tomorrow. Andy Lang, Baseball is back today.

307
00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,399
It sure is. We just talked about the only game

308
00:16:19,759 --> 00:16:22,440
that's going to go today, but we will. You know,

309
00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,840
we'll be back every day now Monday through Friday, nine

310
00:16:25,879 --> 00:16:28,080
am Eastern here for total Bases. And then I do

311
00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:32,559
think that we are being incorporated somehow into the weekend programming,

312
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,279
whether it be I think maybe part of Last Call.

313
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,720
I'm not sure, but you're probably gonna get a six

314
00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:40,639
days a week now, so that's something to look forward

315
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:45,679
to as well. Yeah, there's a yeah, someone's thumbnail so creepy.

316
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:50,399
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, if someone must buy Brian an industrial

317
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,440
alarm clock to wake up every day before six am,

318
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,320
that would be a nice Christmas gift.

319
00:16:57,759 --> 00:16:59,679
Speaker 1: If you click on it, that's all that matters. So

320
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,080
that's that's the that's the goal of the thumbnail. We

321
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,039
just need it to be clicked up. And here's it.

322
00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:09,079
Here's an interesting Uh, I'm gonna go to Andy, and

323
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,440
I think this starts an interesting discussion. He says, best

324
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,839
future bet for me most wins by a team under

325
00:17:16,279 --> 00:17:19,319
one oh four and a half. Now, that is very

326
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,920
interesting to me because I believe the Dodgers have the

327
00:17:23,039 --> 00:17:27,319
highest projected season win total under one oh three and

328
00:17:27,319 --> 00:17:29,880
a half I think is what it was. I'm going

329
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,519
off the zepin there, and then the next team after

330
00:17:33,599 --> 00:17:36,319
that is much lower than that. I don't think anyone

331
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:40,079
has a projection higher than ninety one, ninety and a

332
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,319
half ninety one. So Andy says best future bet for

333
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,279
me most wins under for one oh four and a half.

334
00:17:46,599 --> 00:17:48,160
I kind of want both you guys to weigh in

335
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,400
on this, and I'll start with Brian Leonard first because Brian,

336
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,519
you were the one that was sort of last year.

337
00:17:52,559 --> 00:17:56,599
Like listen, the Dodgers don't really care about the regular season,

338
00:17:57,519 --> 00:18:01,720
so they they I almost sort of gravitate towards their

339
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,960
underseason win total. So unless you think someone else is

340
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,480
going to so far outperform their win total that they're

341
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:13,960
going over the Dodgers projected win total, then Andy probably

342
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,480
has a winner. Talk to me about that in general,

343
00:18:16,519 --> 00:18:17,680
and if you agree or disagree.

344
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, the way I would play this, Andy, You've got

345
00:18:23,079 --> 00:18:25,720
thirty teams or whatever in Major League Baseball. Any team,

346
00:18:25,799 --> 00:18:30,720
you're taking your shot on thirty teams, not going over

347
00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:33,519
the number, and it's only costing you a one game.

348
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:35,240
It's like we said, the Dodgers are a one oh

349
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:40,359
three and a half. The Dodgers don't care to win

350
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,519
a lot of regular season games. We saw that last year.

351
00:18:42,519 --> 00:18:46,039
I believe they didn't even win the division. So I

352
00:18:46,039 --> 00:18:48,599
would rather play the Dodgers under the one oh three

353
00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:53,200
and a half and eliminate Let's say let's say Baltimore

354
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,599
is the team this year. They're a young team, they

355
00:18:55,599 --> 00:18:57,759
get on hot streak, they want to continue to win.

356
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,359
They will push for more wins. The other teams will

357
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,359
push for more wins. The Dodgers will not push for

358
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,680
more wins. I think that you're giving up one game

359
00:19:08,279 --> 00:19:11,720
on that, but you're eliminating the rest of the league.

360
00:19:11,799 --> 00:19:13,799
So I would play the Dodgers under one oh three

361
00:19:13,799 --> 00:19:16,640
and a half, and and that is something I like

362
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,839
myself for a total anyway for myself, So to me,

363
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,799
I don't want to disagree with Andy, but I think

364
00:19:22,799 --> 00:19:24,079
that's a different way to play it, and I think

365
00:19:24,079 --> 00:19:26,519
it's probably a better way to play.

366
00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 1: You're a you're a Dodgers guy, Are you going under

367
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,000
with the Dodgers or do you think they win more

368
00:19:31,039 --> 00:19:31,559
games than that?

369
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 3: Not exactly a Dodgers guy, but I do think they

370
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,839
are a juggernaut. But I agree with Brian. I've been

371
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,440
burned two seasons in a row with the Dodgers betting

372
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:45,079
their win total over actually put a little one percent

373
00:19:46,079 --> 00:19:49,279
flyer on the Dodgers to break the two thousand and

374
00:19:49,319 --> 00:19:52,400
one Seattle Mariners record of one hundred and fourteen wins.

375
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,640
I think it was last year and they didn't even

376
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,000
break a hundred, So I totally agree with Brian. The

377
00:19:58,039 --> 00:20:01,640
Dodgers don't give a rats behind about the regular season.

378
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,799
They want to keep their guys healthy, and they don't

379
00:20:05,799 --> 00:20:07,799
really care how many games they win. They do want

380
00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:10,279
to win their division, so if it gets tight with

381
00:20:10,319 --> 00:20:13,880
the Padres down as it has been the last two seasons,

382
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,160
the Padres have given them a run for their money

383
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,240
in the last week of the season to win the division.

384
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,759
But let's face that, the Dodgers don't care if they

385
00:20:21,759 --> 00:20:25,240
win one hundred games. They care about winning their division

386
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,599
and getting in the playoffs healthy, and last year the

387
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,480
Dodgers weren't even the highest win total team. I think

388
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,680
it was the Brewers, right or the Tigers? Was that

389
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:37,039
the Brewers or the Tigers last year? And I would

390
00:20:37,079 --> 00:20:39,319
definitely bet no team will win one hundred and four

391
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,200
games this year. I don't guarantee it's a win, but

392
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,559
I certainly would make that bad.

393
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: Another reason that that makes a lot of sense, in

394
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:54,240
my opinion, is the very worst teams, the bottom teams

395
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,559
in Major League Baseball, in my opinion, are not as

396
00:20:56,599 --> 00:21:01,240
bad as last year, like they're theoretically the Rockies. The

397
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,799
Rockies could still be the worst team in the league.

398
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,000
And I think I think they win far more games

399
00:21:07,039 --> 00:21:09,799
than they did last year, like they they could. I mean,

400
00:21:09,799 --> 00:21:12,119
they're probably gonna win fifteen to twenty more games than

401
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,559
they did last year, and it and they could still

402
00:21:15,559 --> 00:21:17,400
be the worst team in the league. So if you

403
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,519
look at it like that, it's like, Okay, so those

404
00:21:20,519 --> 00:21:23,200
wins have to come from somewhere. Maybe they come from

405
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,359
the middle of the pack, but like they also could

406
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,759
they could come from anywhere. And that's twenty wins that's

407
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,680
likely coming out of that pool of wins for someone

408
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,759
to win more than one hundred and four games, so

409
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,880
and I think, like, so, I'm just gonna transition this

410
00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:40,400
into Jack Fulk saying, can we talk about the Chicago

411
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:45,759
White Sox and what my outlook is on them? I Adam, Well,

412
00:21:45,759 --> 00:21:49,880
here's the thing I sort of pointed out last year

413
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,839
that I liked I liked this team, and I thought

414
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,119
they were like pretty undervalued in the market. I was

415
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,079
pretty much right about that from a especially when you

416
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,400
when you factored in playing against the one and a

417
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,559
half red astat somewhere.

418
00:22:03,319 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 2: The other day.

419
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: They were fifteen and thirty six in one run games

420
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,759
last year, So that's you know that one and a half,

421
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,599
Like White Sox, one and a half kind of was

422
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,000
a great bet because there was a lot of scenarios

423
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,160
where the money line did not win, but the plus

424
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,240
one and a half cashed and on a game in

425
00:22:18,279 --> 00:22:20,519
a game out basis, it was almost always minus one

426
00:22:20,599 --> 00:22:24,039
ten minus won fifteen sometimes plus money, So it was

427
00:22:24,039 --> 00:22:26,799
a very good bet as far as this year is concerned. Though,

428
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,920
here's what I'll say about the White Sox. I don't

429
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,440
think they are I don't think they're the worst team

430
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,920
in the American League, which is where they're priced right now.

431
00:22:35,279 --> 00:22:37,079
I think it's possible that they're not one of the

432
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,759
worst five teams in Major League Baseball. I think the

433
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,400
I think they are is five teams that the White

434
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,160
Sox are legitimately better than this year. So my take

435
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,359
on the White Sox, I'm going to be on them

436
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,519
again relative to market. I am much higher on the

437
00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:54,599
White Sox than when they where they are being priced.

438
00:22:55,079 --> 00:22:57,559
And hey, some of those some of that, you know,

439
00:22:57,599 --> 00:22:59,680
some of those close losses might turn in the wins.

440
00:23:00,079 --> 00:23:02,000
You could have a big jump here for the White Sox.

441
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,720
You're nodding, Brian, go ahead, jump in on the White Sox.

442
00:23:05,799 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you just mentioned what was it, fifteen

443
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,519
and thirty six and one run games.

444
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: That's might I have written down.

445
00:23:12,039 --> 00:23:15,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's normally and you find it in hockey too,

446
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,279
when when you go to when you go to overtime

447
00:23:17,319 --> 00:23:21,759
and shootouts and that kind of thing. Teams that are

448
00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:25,440
really good are really bad in one round games unless

449
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,839
you have a terrible bullpen or in elite bullpens like

450
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,039
Cleveland's usually pretty good because they've always had really good bullpens,

451
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,079
they're pretty good in these one run games. So you

452
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,759
have to start off not with fifteen and thirty six.

453
00:23:38,839 --> 00:23:41,240
You have to start off at an even number of

454
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,920
fifty percent. I'd say Chicgo White Sox. Let's say they're

455
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,759
expected to win forty five percent of the games. Then

456
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,880
you figure out what that number is. That's what the

457
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,440
number should be. Then you have to look at okay,

458
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,799
or what have they done in the back of the bullpen. Well,

459
00:23:53,799 --> 00:23:57,519
they brought in uh Domingos and he's better than what

460
00:23:57,519 --> 00:23:59,839
they've had. He's not great. He tends to walk the

461
00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:02,200
lot of people, but that's one of the ways you

462
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:03,759
got to look at it. You also have to look

463
00:24:03,759 --> 00:24:07,839
at the runs. If your team, like last year, Houston

464
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,920
had a winning record and I believe they're off scored

465
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,200
by five runs on the season, So you don't start

466
00:24:13,319 --> 00:24:15,720
with Houston's record last year. You have to start about

467
00:24:16,079 --> 00:24:19,039
the net run So basically you would say Houston was

468
00:24:19,079 --> 00:24:22,319
an eighty one win ball club last year. And when

469
00:24:22,319 --> 00:24:24,240
you do that, then you take a look at what

470
00:24:24,279 --> 00:24:27,480
they brought in, what is going from them, and then

471
00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:30,640
you decide on how many wins they should have. And

472
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,640
there's plenty of websites other fangrafts. Does a terrific job.

473
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,200
A lot of the baseball websites will do that for you,

474
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:37,440
so you don't have to do the research.

475
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:39,839
Speaker 1: Brian, I want to stay with you for a second

476
00:24:39,839 --> 00:24:43,960
because I got a follow up question. It's Jack balk Here.

477
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:48,000
He says White Sox won't finish last in the Al Central. Okay,

478
00:24:48,039 --> 00:24:50,640
that's a pretty hot take, but I don't disagree with it.

479
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,400
My question to you is who is and is it

480
00:24:53,519 --> 00:24:57,920
the Guardians? That's my question. Why do you, Brian like that?

481
00:24:58,359 --> 00:24:59,920
I think it's a legitimate question. Team.

482
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: That's how I pick on, you know, other guys with

483
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,799
their teams. I think the Guardians are better than this wins,

484
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:14,079
but I do like some of the guys the Twins have.

485
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,440
I mean, Abel, you've talked about him in the past,

486
00:25:17,519 --> 00:25:21,119
your top on that he's been great. They sent one

487
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,559
of their better pitchers, which was one of their sent

488
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,640
him down to the minors. He so they I think

489
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,079
the Twins are going to be better than they were.

490
00:25:30,839 --> 00:25:34,400
But I still don't think I played Cleveland under the

491
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,759
seventy eight and a half or whatever it was. I

492
00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:42,279
think Minnesota probably wins seventy five and so I would

493
00:25:42,319 --> 00:25:44,240
think they're in the last time, I actually think the

494
00:25:44,279 --> 00:25:47,799
White Sox will have a better record than the Cleveland Guardians.

495
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: Maybe I want to come to you for this. It's

496
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:52,400
kind of a follow up to this, but it's we're

497
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,279
gonna we're gonna pan it out a little bit, uh, Tim, Tim? Tim?

498
00:25:56,319 --> 00:25:59,160
Tim wants to know who are the five worst teams

499
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,559
in Major League Baseball? So, in your opinion, TV, who

500
00:26:02,559 --> 00:26:04,440
are the five worst teams in the league right now?

501
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:05,640
In your power ratings?

502
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: Okay, I didn't prepare for this question, but off the

503
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,440
top of my head, let me first say that I

504
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,039
don't think the Rockies are the worst team in MLB.

505
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,079
I think that will go to the what's that me?

506
00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: Agree with you?

507
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,519
Speaker 3: Okay? I think that that honor goes to the Washington

508
00:26:22,599 --> 00:26:27,720
Nationals in my opinion? You agree? Okay? So I think

509
00:26:27,839 --> 00:26:29,640
I think if we if we had to group him

510
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,720
in a five, I I, you know, I think the

511
00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:37,519
one team that's that's risen above being a bad team

512
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,279
is the Miami Marlins. So I don't think they're in

513
00:26:40,319 --> 00:26:43,680
that that five. So I would say the Rockies, the

514
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:52,359
White Sox, the Guardians, Angels probably, and I really can't

515
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,200
think of a fifth off the top of my head,

516
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,960
because then after those teams, I think you get into

517
00:26:57,039 --> 00:27:00,640
like a muck of a bunch of mediocrity, and it's

518
00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:04,079
it's who's more mediocre. I can't really think of a

519
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,240
fifth off the top of my head, but I would

520
00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:08,920
those four teams pop into my head pretty quickly.

521
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: Brian, I'm gonna ask you a question. Is the Cardinals

522
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,119
in your bottom five? And talk about Saint Louis?

523
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,799
Speaker 3: I forgot they lost Nolan Arenado and they're just gonna

524
00:27:18,799 --> 00:27:20,200
be horrible this year, aren't they.

525
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 2: You know, I hope a lot of people think that

526
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,880
way because I like this team. You take a look.

527
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,160
They've had a lot of young talent, They're gonna run.

528
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,000
They play in a pretty good pitcher's park. If I

529
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,720
was to play, so bet on who which team would

530
00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:38,119
have the worst record in baseball depending on the odds,

531
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:39,400
and I don't have them right in front of me,

532
00:27:39,599 --> 00:27:44,279
would be the Angels. The Angels are a team that

533
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,559
everybody on that they're not gonna be able to have

534
00:27:48,559 --> 00:27:51,559
a pitching staff. Yanks was supposed to be their next

535
00:27:51,559 --> 00:27:55,000
closer up he got hurt yesterday. They're bringing in retreads

536
00:27:55,039 --> 00:27:58,720
from the eighties. I mean the Angels got They're one

537
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,279
of the older teams at baseball. They're a terrible defensive team,

538
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,039
terrible pitching team, and they're in a division where they

539
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:10,839
don't have a chance. And I see them being pretty

540
00:28:10,839 --> 00:28:13,559
active at the trade deadline getting rid of some of

541
00:28:13,599 --> 00:28:17,039
these veteran players. The Angels right now, you know, I've

542
00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:19,480
got it projected to win seventy two point eight games.

543
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,079
That to me is a bargain. The Rockies are about

544
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,039
a sixty one point six. But I think the Rockies

545
00:28:25,039 --> 00:28:26,960
are a better Like you said, I think they're a

546
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,440
better team the Angels. I see reasons for the Rockies

547
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,359
to be good the Nationals. I agree that bullpen in

548
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,519
the Nationals. Are you ever going to play the Nationals

549
00:28:35,559 --> 00:28:37,079
game this year? You got to play the first five

550
00:28:37,599 --> 00:28:43,319
and or you play the over I like the Cardinals,

551
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,279
I like the White Sox. The Angels are the team

552
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,000
that I think you could make some money betting against

553
00:28:48,039 --> 00:28:51,400
them all season long. And yeah, you're not going to

554
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:52,720
have the same team at the end of the season

555
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,799
that you see right now TV.

556
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,319
Speaker 4: I'm going to will eventually get injured too, and he's

557
00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:03,519
their only good players. Sorry, go ahead, I'm gonna throw

558
00:29:03,559 --> 00:29:04,799
this back to you, but I want to make I

559
00:29:04,799 --> 00:29:08,920
want to agree with your I've got the Nationals as

560
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,359
the worst team in the league, so I agree with

561
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:11,240
you there, Brian.

562
00:29:11,279 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: I've got the Angels as the worst team in the

563
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,079
American League. So I'm hoping to find some value there

564
00:29:16,119 --> 00:29:20,640
because I think there's a little bit of like those teams,

565
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,039
just because the Nationals have had some recent success and

566
00:29:23,079 --> 00:29:26,440
the Angels always sort of seem to be priced higher

567
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,160
than the market should. I don't know if it's because

568
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,160
of Trout or whatever. It may be big market like

569
00:29:31,839 --> 00:29:35,039
I'm hoping that, like, because I'm going to target those two.

570
00:29:35,079 --> 00:29:37,599
I think they're the worst two teams in baseball. The Angels.

571
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,279
Last year, I think their run differential, off the top

572
00:29:40,279 --> 00:29:41,960
of my head was close to one set. What is

573
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,720
it one, Brian, You have it right there. What's sixty four?

574
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, something like that. It was terrible, And that tells

575
00:29:49,359 --> 00:29:50,759
you how bad a team it is. When you're getting

576
00:29:50,759 --> 00:29:52,240
blown out like that. You can win a lot of

577
00:29:53,039 --> 00:29:54,839
like if you'r hockey player, hockey team, you win a

578
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,400
lot of three two two one games, but then they

579
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,240
lose ten to enough on and they say the they

580
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,720
were two and one. No, they were out scoring pretty badly,

581
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,599
so you got to keep that in mind in baseball too.

582
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: So TV, where what I was getting at is, see,

583
00:30:10,039 --> 00:30:12,240
here's the thing. The Rockies are still likely in the

584
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,200
bottom five, Like even with a big jump, even with

585
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,720
them being a team you want to target in daily betting,

586
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,400
even with a big jump, they're likely not out of

587
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:27,359
the bottom five. So if we have if we have Angels, Nationals, Rockies,

588
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,599
who are the other two teams? For me? I'm with Brian,

589
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,359
I kind of like, I think I'm higher than the

590
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,920
market on the Cardinals. They're gonna be bad, but I

591
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,400
don't think they're bottom five bad. It could be the

592
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,920
White Sox down there, even though I think they could

593
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,720
outperform that I'm gonna go. And you know, I'm pretty

594
00:30:46,759 --> 00:30:48,839
low on the Guardians, so I think the Guardians could

595
00:30:48,839 --> 00:30:51,079
flirt with it. The other team that I think is

596
00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:52,680
in the bottom five, And this is where I'm gonna

597
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,640
throw it to you, Tokyo Brandon. I'm out on the A's.

598
00:30:56,039 --> 00:30:58,359
I just don't think the A's are a great baseball team.

599
00:30:58,359 --> 00:31:02,039
They have no pitching, some interesting hitters on that in

600
00:31:02,039 --> 00:31:05,279
that team, and they're gonna be fun. But their pitching

601
00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:09,720
is bad, very bad. Starting pitching is bad unless a

602
00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:13,079
bunch of guys come up from the farm system. I

603
00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:15,319
think they could be a bottom five team. So what

604
00:31:15,319 --> 00:31:17,039
do you talk to me a bit where you're at

605
00:31:17,079 --> 00:31:19,640
on the AM I way off there, because a lot

606
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:20,880
of people are high on this team.

607
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,039
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I don't think you're off. But

608
00:31:24,559 --> 00:31:27,640
the A's are a team I think. I always like

609
00:31:27,759 --> 00:31:30,559
to judge a team by who they're putting out on

610
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,039
opening Day, so you can tell a bad team because

611
00:31:34,319 --> 00:31:37,519
it's kind of like, that's the best you got, you know,

612
00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:42,160
And Severarino is the best you got, really, you know.

613
00:31:42,319 --> 00:31:44,759
I mean he's not an ace by any means, by

614
00:31:44,799 --> 00:31:47,240
any stretch of the imagination. They have a couple of

615
00:31:47,359 --> 00:31:50,160
good bullpen arms, and they have a great rote, a

616
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,640
great lineup. Though we've talked about the A's as a

617
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,599
surging young team who's going to be around for a

618
00:31:55,640 --> 00:32:01,279
long time. I don't like their prospects of making the playoffs,

619
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:06,160
let alone having a winning record, but uh, they're They're

620
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,400
gonna have a lot of overs. This team in that ballpark,

621
00:32:09,599 --> 00:32:13,359
and with that lineup and with that rotation, I expect

622
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:14,559
a lot of overs with the.

623
00:32:14,519 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 1: A's this year, this year, this season, Brian, So first

624
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,119
of all, just pointing out that Jack agrees with you.

625
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,279
His his comment was already in the chat before you

626
00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:26,720
said that overs in Sacramento. Yeah, just to go back

627
00:32:26,759 --> 00:32:29,079
to like Sacramento, you you brought up Severino. He just

628
00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:33,200
had a pretty good World Baseball Classic. No, so like

629
00:32:33,279 --> 00:32:35,759
this is like a thing where it's like, and I'll

630
00:32:35,799 --> 00:32:38,559
go to Brian for this one. Guys that just sort

631
00:32:38,599 --> 00:32:41,559
of showed out in the World Baseball Classic. Well, you

632
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,759
fade those guys early in the season, like Severino's pitching

633
00:32:44,799 --> 00:32:47,359
in Sacramento where he has like a ten e R,

634
00:32:48,079 --> 00:32:49,799
Like he's not gonna come out and throw a hundred

635
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,799
like you. He was all jacked up throwing I think

636
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,319
ninety nine one hundred at points in time. That's gonna

637
00:32:55,319 --> 00:32:57,200
be a good fade right early in the season.

638
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Yeah, Brandon talked about it about what

639
00:33:03,039 --> 00:33:06,680
they what they went through, and it was clear you

640
00:33:06,839 --> 00:33:09,200
talk about, well is that the best you got? Well

641
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:10,960
that's what I was thinking, and I and I told

642
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,000
my wife, I says, we've got Paul Schemes on the

643
00:33:13,039 --> 00:33:20,960
Moms and they've got uh, whatever. Yeah, Sabar are the Diamondbacks. Rodriguez,

644
00:33:21,279 --> 00:33:25,640
I mean, I got but that was like the last

645
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,440
day of work, and you want to prove with all

646
00:33:28,519 --> 00:33:31,039
all your teammates that, uh, they put me the right choice.

647
00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:35,160
They pitched great, congratulations to them. I don't I play

648
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,480
a lot of fancy baseball. I'm not running out to

649
00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:39,480
get either one of those guys on my fantasy teams.

650
00:33:39,519 --> 00:33:40,400
Let's just put it that way.

651
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,559
Speaker 3: But get a lot of Oakland batters on your fantasy team.

652
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, TV, you're you you're spot on there because

653
00:33:49,039 --> 00:33:52,400
that is I mean, listen, they're they're gonna hit. That

654
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,680
lineup has a lot of I mean, there's a lot

655
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,440
of offensive talent. And then you go just think about

656
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,839
this for a second, Like if they're pitching is as

657
00:34:02,319 --> 00:34:03,880
bad as I think it could be. Think of how

658
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,200
many games the A's might be in where they're down

659
00:34:06,279 --> 00:34:09,280
nine to three and then suddenly you're you're facing a

660
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,320
like depth reliever in the in the final innings of

661
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:13,679
the game. So if you want to talk about like

662
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,599
individual batter statistics for the A's or maybe targeting like

663
00:34:18,079 --> 00:34:21,320
player props, I think they could be in some pretty

664
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,599
lopsided or just like slug best type games that are

665
00:34:24,639 --> 00:34:27,000
higher scoring, but still I think they're going to be

666
00:34:27,079 --> 00:34:29,239
like behind a lot and that could be good for

667
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:30,320
offensive statistics.

668
00:34:31,039 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: Some lineups that are very underrated that could make massive

669
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,440
production or the A's And I like the Miami Marlins

670
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,360
to score a lot of runs too. Not a lot

671
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,039
of household names on that on that roster, but a

672
00:34:43,079 --> 00:34:45,280
lot of young guys who can who can belt it.

673
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,000
So those two teams I expect to see some good things.

674
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you want to do you want to talk

675
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,400
about the Marlins for a second, because they're an interesting

676
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,119
team to me. I'm I'm kind of a little higher

677
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:57,679
than where the market is on the Marlins. I love

678
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,360
Peter Bendix. I talked about it a ton last year.

679
00:35:00,559 --> 00:35:02,719
Brian was actually the first person to bring that up

680
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,320
last year in terms of like what he's kind of

681
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,480
doing in the farm system. And you know, they're not

682
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,760
I don't think they're a playoff team by any means,

683
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,320
but they could certainly outperform where they're at in the market.

684
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,000
So yeah, talk to me. What do you like about

685
00:35:15,039 --> 00:35:15,639
the Marlins?

686
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,159
Speaker 3: I mean, I like their rotation and I like the

687
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:22,360
fact their pitching is good, and I like their win

688
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,280
total was. I believe it was seventy two or seventy three,

689
00:35:25,639 --> 00:35:27,679
and I put I don't do a lot of futures

690
00:35:27,679 --> 00:35:29,400
this I didn't do a lot of futures this year

691
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,079
because I've been burned so many times by especially the Dodgers,

692
00:35:32,079 --> 00:35:35,639
doing futures. But this year I did bet the Miami

693
00:35:35,679 --> 00:35:38,440
Marlins team total over because I just think they made

694
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,000
a lot of good moves. They seem to have a

695
00:35:43,039 --> 00:35:46,519
smartpront office, and they got good pitching. Anytime you got

696
00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,840
good pitching, you have a chance. So I certainly like

697
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,960
their chances to go over seventy three wins. I believe

698
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,239
it was, so Yeah, I certainly liked that bet.

699
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,639
Speaker 1: Jack Folks has TV swallowing the Marcie juice. That's what

700
00:36:00,639 --> 00:36:03,119
that pink drink is. Hey, I'll take some of that.

701
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,920
I think he's going to be a great player. I

702
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:10,079
think he's going to be a great player, Brian Brian

703
00:36:10,639 --> 00:36:13,400
Collin says, Thomas White's going to be a dude. Okay,

704
00:36:13,559 --> 00:36:17,000
So Thomas White got called up to Jacksonville, had had

705
00:36:17,039 --> 00:36:21,239
a good, a really good sort of August September last year,

706
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,840
kind of I think he kind of shot through the ranks.

707
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,199
He was in Pensacola, quickly in Jacksonville, did well at

708
00:36:27,199 --> 00:36:30,960
each step. What I've noticed about the Marlins is they

709
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:35,159
seem to be accumulating these pitchers that can be that

710
00:36:35,159 --> 00:36:37,400
that can almost just be there like three four inning

711
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,760
type guys, where they have a bunch of guys that

712
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,159
they might not be. They might have not had a

713
00:36:42,159 --> 00:36:44,519
ton of great starting pitching, but it's almost like they

714
00:36:44,559 --> 00:36:47,079
have a collection of guys that can go out and

715
00:36:47,119 --> 00:36:50,519
like throw four innings. And I kind of like that

716
00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:52,880
because I think that's where baseball is headed in general,

717
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,880
away from like the traditional starting pitcher. So do you

718
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,880
want to comment on that, because I that's one thing

719
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,000
I love about the Marlins.

720
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, They've got a lot of depth in the in

721
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,039
the minors, and they have that ability. I always say

722
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,000
the average manager League Baseball team uses ten different pitchers.

723
00:37:08,599 --> 00:37:11,199
They sent Braxton Garrett back down to stretch him out

724
00:37:11,199 --> 00:37:14,440
a little bit. He's coming back from the surgery. They've

725
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,079
got a lot of guys and and Thomas White is

726
00:37:17,119 --> 00:37:19,840
one of them. Is a bright future there. But I

727
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,920
do want to point out that management says we're going

728
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,960
to be out of here pretty soon. So let's we'll

729
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,880
have plenty of time to talk about the teams as

730
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,079
it goes on for the season.

731
00:37:33,159 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: So let's here's the thing. So for today, for today,

732
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,679
I we're not gonna do a parlay today because there's

733
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,880
one So here's the thing. We're not gonna do a

734
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,000
parlay today because there's one game. Typically by this point

735
00:37:46,039 --> 00:37:47,679
in the show, we'd already be at best bets. But

736
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,800
this is not the normal show. There's no This will

737
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,519
be the only day we don't do a parlay because

738
00:37:52,519 --> 00:37:54,000
we're not going to give you a three game, a

739
00:37:54,039 --> 00:37:56,360
three team parlay in one game that we all basically

740
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,119
said you probably shouldn't bet. So you know that's that's

741
00:37:59,159 --> 00:38:01,480
we're not going to do that. I will, however, go

742
00:38:01,559 --> 00:38:06,239
to you, Brian. Do you is there any bet long

743
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,840
term future win total that you want to share with

744
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:10,960
the with the viewers today.

745
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:16,679
Speaker 2: Well, I put this off in today's game. If you're

746
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,719
looking to take us, I just actually want to say

747
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:24,719
I kind of disagree with regards to the starting pitcher

748
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,880
for the Yankees. If you take a look at I

749
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,599
follow John in Pittsburgh, a guy who does fantasy baseball stuff.

750
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:35,639
He's very good he went back and looked. In the

751
00:38:35,679 --> 00:38:39,920
first start of a season, your starters usually throw six

752
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,480
less pitches. By the time they get to the third start,

753
00:38:43,559 --> 00:38:46,000
they're back to their season whatever what will be their

754
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,000
season average. So are you gonna get six less pitches

755
00:38:49,599 --> 00:38:53,719
out of the starters today? Which means probably one batter

756
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:58,719
and one batter when you're over under in outs means

757
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,119
a lot. And you can get under the fifteen and

758
00:39:01,159 --> 00:39:05,920
a half right now without laying any juice. So I'm

759
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,599
guy kind of like the under in the star in

760
00:39:08,679 --> 00:39:11,400
the Yankee sharter for I just don't think he's going

761
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:15,599
to be there. Also for anybody, and I know Brandon

762
00:39:15,679 --> 00:39:18,800
does this a lot, or he'll play will this pitcher

763
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:23,480
get the win? Keep in mind the first time through

764
00:39:23,559 --> 00:39:26,960
the through the league, these guys aren't build up yet,

765
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,400
so they may throw one hundred normally they'll throw eighty now,

766
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,880
which means they may not even get to five innings.

767
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,840
So if you want to take somebody who's like the

768
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,519
long reliever for a team, and if you can find

769
00:39:40,519 --> 00:39:42,800
a spot on that said, will so and so get

770
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,760
the win today? He might be like the Dodgers talk

771
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,920
about piggybacking and things like that for a Tani starts,

772
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,239
take whoever the piggyback is and bet against Otani getting

773
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,719
the win because chances already won't go five minutes.

774
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,159
Speaker 3: Okay, I'll give out a bet for this game. I

775
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,039
like DoD Dodgers. What am I talking about? I like

776
00:40:03,079 --> 00:40:05,679
the Yankees on the money line, and I broke it

777
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:09,719
down in my video that's on wager Talks YouTube channel.

778
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:16,400
I have a five percent play for tomorrow, and I

779
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:22,320
actually broke down all of the over under game totals

780
00:40:22,559 --> 00:40:25,800
on my Twitter x account, so if you go there

781
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:27,719
you can see my breakdown of that. We don't have

782
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,800
time to go over all of it, and tomorrow we

783
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,320
will cover a lot of this stuff. So if there

784
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,960
was a parlay leg, I would say Yankees money line.

785
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,039
I think minus one seventeen for a max free start.

786
00:40:39,079 --> 00:40:40,519
I don't care if he's on the road or not.

787
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,079
And I don't think Web is that trustworthy against these batters,

788
00:40:45,159 --> 00:40:48,320
So that's how I would go. I like the Yankee

789
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,159
bullpen better and I like their lineup better.

790
00:40:51,639 --> 00:40:54,599
Speaker 1: I haven't looked at the price. I'm sure it's more

791
00:40:54,639 --> 00:40:56,519
expensive in the full game, but I think if I

792
00:40:56,599 --> 00:40:58,239
was going to play this game. I'd have to look

793
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,000
at Yankees first five. I just like the idea of

794
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,079
getting Freed or getting the Giants only against the lefty,

795
00:41:05,199 --> 00:41:07,360
which is what I think I would get if I

796
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,559
bet Yankees first five, because again, like you know, Freed

797
00:41:10,679 --> 00:41:13,559
may Hey, maybe he doesn't go for five, but he's

798
00:41:13,559 --> 00:41:15,760
probably gonna go five, four or five. I think that's

799
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,000
like a fair sort of you know, I agree with

800
00:41:19,039 --> 00:41:22,360
Brian in the respect that you're gonna see I don't

801
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:23,840
think you're going to see like a ton of like

802
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:29,159
extended outings from anyone in March and early April. But

803
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,320
if if a guy's economical and he's throwing it well,

804
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,679
and especially someone like like three, he's obviously going to

805
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,400
be out there for at least five innings. So you

806
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,280
get the Giants against a lefty. I think that's a

807
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,360
good way to play against the Giants. They were bottom

808
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:45,119
five against left handed pitching, I believe all of last year,

809
00:41:45,159 --> 00:41:47,679
and it's it's a lot of the same lineup. So

810
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:52,199
I'm kind of with you there, TV. I will just

811
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,519
get go ahead, Brian.

812
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,199
Speaker 2: Your first five, you're paying about nickel Moore, you're paying

813
00:41:56,199 --> 00:41:57,000
about one twenty five.

814
00:41:57,119 --> 00:41:58,159
Speaker 1: That's not bad is.

815
00:42:00,119 --> 00:42:02,039
Speaker 3: How often this season do you think you'll see a

816
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:06,039
Max Freed start at minus one seventeen. It's probably going

817
00:42:06,119 --> 00:42:06,559
to be rare.

818
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 2: That's dominant that entire division.

819
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,679
Speaker 3: You know that. I know that they're priced like they are.

820
00:42:16,159 --> 00:42:17,719
They're priced like they are though.

821
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, but if they're on the road at Boston with

822
00:42:21,119 --> 00:42:23,280
Crochet going, he's not a one time.

823
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,039
Speaker 3: But my point is that the bookmakers price them too

824
00:42:28,079 --> 00:42:29,239
high than they actually are.

825
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: Well, that's a great point. And I think since I'm

826
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:34,360
not I don't have a bet to give out today,

827
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,840
I'm not betting futures in baseball. I haven't done that

828
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,119
for years. And I could do a whole a whole

829
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,079
segment on why I think it's crazy to tie your

830
00:42:44,119 --> 00:42:46,079
money up for six months on a season win total.

831
00:42:46,119 --> 00:42:49,760
When organizations bail on a team when they're two games,

832
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,960
you know, sometimes a couple of games outlook the Twins

833
00:42:52,039 --> 00:42:57,159
last year. But like, starting pitching has never meant less

834
00:42:57,199 --> 00:42:59,840
to the number in my opinion, Like listen, I got

835
00:43:00,079 --> 00:43:03,599
I get it, guys like there's outliers, a guy like

836
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:07,320
Skiens someone like that, But like, for the most part,

837
00:43:08,519 --> 00:43:12,760
I've never waited starting pitching less. So again, It's like,

838
00:43:14,079 --> 00:43:16,519
I do think you'll see scenarios where Freed is in

839
00:43:16,559 --> 00:43:19,320
that price range, and it's like, you really, if you're

840
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,719
betting a full nine INNY Major League Baseball game at

841
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:27,039
this point, you have to have so many more factors

842
00:43:27,079 --> 00:43:30,039
in your handicap other than the starting pitcher. They just

843
00:43:30,079 --> 00:43:32,159
don't go deepen up, and I think you're gonna see

844
00:43:32,199 --> 00:43:35,599
teams gravitate toward almost like what I could see the

845
00:43:35,599 --> 00:43:39,000
Marlins doing, where it's like three or four inning guy

846
00:43:39,119 --> 00:43:41,159
followed by three or four inning guy. We saw other

847
00:43:41,199 --> 00:43:44,199
teams do it last year as well, So you know,

848
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,840
I'm really sort of I guess that's my big grand

849
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:51,440
takeaway here. I'm not waiting the starting pitchers nearly as

850
00:43:51,519 --> 00:43:53,800
much as I used to. And the reason for that

851
00:43:54,199 --> 00:43:55,840
is I think the books still do it. I think

852
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,239
that's the point that Tokyo Brandon was trying to make there.

853
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,039
The books still do that, and that's just not how

854
00:44:01,039 --> 00:44:02,159
the game is played anymore.

855
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,599
Speaker 2: Well, the public, the public does it. The books. The

856
00:44:04,599 --> 00:44:07,920
books trying to battle the public. Thanks. This guy's a starter,

857
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,559
and as good as he's been, and he's a very

858
00:44:10,599 --> 00:44:14,800
good picture, He's he's not a number one on a

859
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,079
lot of teams. Let's just put it that way.

860
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,679
Speaker 1: Cool, think I gotta say that I'll tell alliots or

861
00:44:22,679 --> 00:44:24,960
Andy's question with the final like minute we have here,

862
00:44:25,039 --> 00:44:28,519
so uh, come out and tell Adam his take on

863
00:44:28,599 --> 00:44:31,360
not betting futures is wrong. I don't mean betting futures

864
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,079
is wrong. Listen. I'm fine with taking a position on

865
00:44:34,159 --> 00:44:35,800
like a team to win a division and stuff like

866
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:39,079
that like that. That's fine. I'm not gonna argue with you.

867
00:44:39,119 --> 00:44:42,280
I do think that the takeout is probably pretty big.

868
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,440
But whatever you want to you want to find value in,

869
00:44:44,559 --> 00:44:46,840
like let's say, like the Rangers to win the AL

870
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,880
West because you want to oppose the Marin or something

871
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,159
like that. That's fine. I'm saying like this whole like

872
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,599
the season win total, like this whole thing where like

873
00:44:54,639 --> 00:44:56,960
ten years ago, shows like this. You know, guys come

874
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,280
on and tell you how great a season win total

875
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,480
bet is, because it's like you get one hundred and

876
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:05,400
sixty two games with the amount of injuries now and

877
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,519
organizations willing to just scrap a season because something doesn't

878
00:45:09,559 --> 00:45:11,639
go their way in the first couple of months. I

879
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,000
just I can find you a better minus one ten

880
00:45:14,079 --> 00:45:17,199
bet on a Korean baseball game, or a minor league

881
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:18,880
game or a game. Why why would you tie your

882
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:20,159
money up for six months for that?

883
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:24,079
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Brian, That's exactly your last point was exactly

884
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,079
why I don't do it like I used to. You're

885
00:45:27,079 --> 00:45:30,719
tying your money up for six months. And granted what, yeah,

886
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,559
you may you have a better advantage on that than

887
00:45:33,599 --> 00:45:35,480
you do for the regular seat or for the regular

888
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:39,039
season games. But even if you're putting five percent of

889
00:45:39,079 --> 00:45:42,400
your bank role on that and you're you're a plus

890
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,719
TV better, that five percent at the end of the

891
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,559
season is probably one hundred percent of your back so

892
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,079
on what you could have made. So that's the only

893
00:45:51,199 --> 00:45:52,760
if you could play it a credit pas.

894
00:45:52,559 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: Get a Japanese baseball play from TB. It's got to

895
00:45:55,519 --> 00:45:58,039
I guarantee you that minus one ten has a bigger

896
00:45:58,199 --> 00:46:00,599
edge than your season win total if.

897
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,199
Speaker 3: You tie up. If you tie up your money for

898
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,599
six months with a bank, they pay you interest. The

899
00:46:04,599 --> 00:46:07,400
books aren't paying you no interest.

900
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's there's just way too much uncertainty

901
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:16,239
you're just not getting I never win too much uncertainty.

902
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:21,920
I never win over every year, not this same we

903
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:25,239
have we have hit. This was you know, this was

904
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,320
kind of just to come on. We're back, break down

905
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,800
the one game tonight, and hit the chat for thirty

906
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,920
minutes to talk about whatever you guys want to talk about. Tomorrow,

907
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,679
back to the normal show, nine am Eastern. We're gonna

908
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,280
hit as many games as possible, and we're still obviously

909
00:46:40,519 --> 00:46:42,400
gonna gonna go off the chat as much as we

910
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,800
possibly can, so we will be back nine am tomorrow

911
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,880
and nine am every day this week. We appreciate you

912
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,440
joining us. We're thrilled baseball season. It's back. I guess

913
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:56,280
the two part Opening Day show tomorrow and Friday for

914
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,760
the for the forty eight hour opening day that is

915
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:02,239
now Major League Baseball. Enjoy the game tonight and we'll

916
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,119
see you guys in the morning for more Total Bases