Speaker 1: A twenty nine fifty five KRCD talk station. I always
Speaker 1: look forward to this time of the week. This is
Speaker 1: when we get the Daniel Davis Deep Dive, retired Lieutenant
Speaker 1: Colonel Daniel Davis offering his military expertise on basically a
Speaker 1: lot of talk over the years about warfare, and of
Speaker 1: course we got some developments with a situation between Russian
Speaker 1: and Ukraine. Welcome back, Daniel Davis, my friend. It's always
Speaker 1: a pleasure to having on the program. Indeed, it always
Speaker 1: is my friend. Glad to be here, and I don't
Speaker 1: want to take too much time up. Just let you
Speaker 1: know I did get back with Gary. I texted him yesterday,
Speaker 1: your producer. So I did reach out to him because
Speaker 1: you had invited me, so I reached out to him.
Speaker 1: So hopefully we'll be having another conversation about that down
Speaker 1: the road. And I do appreciate it. I was hoping
Speaker 1: that's going to work out. Oh, it'll work out.
Speaker 2: Oh.
Speaker 1: I'm honored that you would consider me in your podcast.
Speaker 1: It's a beautiful thing. Now moving over, Donald Trump just
Speaker 1: announced he is going to provide weapons to Ukraine, notably missiles,
Speaker 1: and I believe he specifically identified Patriot missiles and some
Speaker 1: ammunition which they're running short on. But he's also offerer.
Speaker 1: He's also suggested he's going to issue some severe parraffs
Speaker 1: on Russia and its trading partners within fifty days. I
Speaker 1: don't know where fifty came from. I suppose we can
Speaker 1: just ignore that. But it's a two prong attack. We're
Speaker 1: gonna arm Ukraine with more missiles and AMMO, and we're
Speaker 1: gonna sanction you down the road if you don't call
Speaker 1: it quits and end this conflict by some by way
Speaker 1: of some resolution. Of course, he's been trying to negotiate
Speaker 1: a settlement with Putin, and Putin says fine and all
Speaker 1: things good on the telephone call, only to start bombing
Speaker 1: Ukraine minutes after the phone gets hung up. Now, over
Speaker 1: the weekend they launched an amazing drone strike. I was
Speaker 1: it more than six hundred drones and missiles raining down
Speaker 1: on Ukraine. Practical question, Daniel Davis, Considering as I have read,
Speaker 1: each Patriot missile costs four million dollars, and the system
Speaker 1: itself that fires them, all the rockets and the machinery
Speaker 1: and the mechanisms, the equipment to launcher, all of it
Speaker 1: together is more than a billion dollars. How many drones
Speaker 1: can you shoot down with the Patriot missile? And can
Speaker 1: you keep up with a swar of six hundred plus
Speaker 1: at any given moment in time, Daniel Davis, not a chance.
Speaker 3: Your math is right and your logic is sound. There's
Speaker 3: no way that this is gonna have any any impact
Speaker 3: and the air war, it's not gonna help Ukraine out.
Speaker 3: And in fact, most of these interceptors are not supposed
Speaker 3: to be used on the Guarantwo drones that you're talking about,
Speaker 3: the upgraded drones that Russia has used to now long
Speaker 3: range fire across the country. Those are best served by
Speaker 3: other kinds of platforms. But you just can't use those
Speaker 3: kinds of missiles. You don't have that many. I mean,
Speaker 3: consider that the United States produces annually about six hundred
Speaker 3: interceptor missiles annually, and you see one night there was
Speaker 3: six hundred total air attacks that came in, So you
Speaker 3: would exhaust a year's supply if you only fired one
Speaker 3: per incoming missile. If you've ever seen the video, I've
Speaker 3: held the Patriot fire, sometimes it's just rapid fire in
Speaker 3: two and sometimes even three missiles per incoming missiles so
Speaker 3: you've got to save those for only the like the
Speaker 3: hypersonic missiles or the kenzole et cetera, and especially the
Speaker 3: hypersonic that the Patriots system almost never hits it. So
Speaker 3: you see that it's not that good, there's not that many,
Speaker 3: and it's not going to make a difference.
Speaker 1: So if you're Vladimir Putin, you're I guess chuckling underneath
Speaker 1: your breath. In response to the idea that the United
Speaker 1: States is providing additional weapons, including Patriot missiles, to Ukraine.
Speaker 3: There was a huge sigh of relief in Moscow, and
Speaker 3: in fact, I've heard some reaction from the Russian so
Speaker 3: far since yesterday was anywhere from mocking to laughter to relief.
Speaker 3: And in fact, the as you know, markets are more
Speaker 3: emotional than they are actual market fundamentals. The Russian market
Speaker 3: shot up, had a big spike after the event, after
Speaker 3: the announcement yesterday, because they recognized that number one, the
Speaker 3: air missiles and stuff are not going to change the
Speaker 3: outcome of the war, or even the air war for
Speaker 3: that matter.
Speaker 2: And number two, this.
Speaker 3: Is legend fifty day period before you're going to get
Speaker 3: into any kind of sections. Has Trump had held to
Speaker 3: a single deadline, he said for himself in regards to Russia,
Speaker 3: the answer is no, And I don't know what anybody
Speaker 3: thinks is going to happen with this fifty day thing.
Speaker 3: And by the way, the two biggest targets of that
Speaker 3: would be China and India. Yes, and I can't imagine
Speaker 3: that he would risk our economy and getting into a
Speaker 3: big trade war with those guys over Ukraine and sink
Speaker 3: our economy when he's now starting to get ready ramping
Speaker 3: up for the midterms. So you got to see all
Speaker 3: these things together, it's not likely going to make any difference.
Speaker 2: So the two happened.
Speaker 1: The two threats the one you have the weapons, two
Speaker 1: you have the sanctions or tariffs. Those are the two
Speaker 1: things that are designed to get putin to actually get
Speaker 1: on the phone call and engage in a substantive conversation
Speaker 1: about a resolution of the conflict. But the elephant in
Speaker 1: the room seems to me to be what that will
Speaker 1: look like. As you and I have talked time and
Speaker 1: time and time again, Russia has not backed off its
Speaker 1: core key provisions. They have absolute terms that they have
Speaker 1: insisted on. Ukraine refuses to abide by those. So it's
Speaker 1: a non starter, regardless of whether tariff's actually go in
Speaker 1: place or missiles actually show up.
Speaker 3: Right, Russia is locked in and they nothing is going
Speaker 3: to dissuade them. I interviewed on the show last week
Speaker 3: a Russian journalist and former member of their military and
Speaker 3: ask him point blank that question is because the European Union,
Speaker 3: especially ursav Anderlean and Manuel Macroan and Keir Starmer, are
Speaker 3: constantly saying they want to force Russia into a piece
Speaker 3: that's acceptable to Kiev. And I said, can they do that?
Speaker 3: Is there any chance? And he said, listen, you can
Speaker 3: say anything you want, but until you forced the Russian
Speaker 3: army to move back or to stop them, there's nothing
Speaker 3: that anybody in what in Moscow is going to do
Speaker 3: to change what they're doing, because you have to compel
Speaker 3: it on the front line. And he is one hundred
Speaker 3: percent right, and there is no evidence that that's happening.
Speaker 3: As a matter of fact, in just the last thirty
Speaker 3: six hours or so, there has been an acceleration in
Speaker 3: two key areas where Russia has advanced even further, and
Speaker 3: the most important area in Putkrolsk, and then in another
Speaker 3: secondary area big gains on there. So there is a
Speaker 3: lot of concern on the Ukraine side and the other.
Speaker 3: Further to the point, give them all the weapons and
Speaker 3: munitions and arms that you want to the extent it's feasible.
Speaker 3: We still have a problem with Ukraine's military. It keeps
Speaker 3: getting smaller and smaller, a point that you and I
Speaker 3: have discussed many many times over the months. You have
Speaker 3: a twin problem here. Have you got to keep things
Speaker 3: in context. You can't just look at the number a while. Apparently,
Speaker 3: according to Axios, when Trump released this prohibition or whatever,
Speaker 3: this pause, it's there's a new package in a realm
Speaker 3: of ten billion dollars with draw down authority, et cetera.
Speaker 3: Ten that's compared to the sixty one billion dollars that
Speaker 3: Biden last did in May of twenty twenty four. So
Speaker 3: you see already that it's like a sixth of what
Speaker 3: we've done before, which that sixty one billion made no
Speaker 3: difference on the front line. And now then the Ukraine
Speaker 3: army is even smaller than it was at that time,
Speaker 3: and they're moving on the back foot. So you see
Speaker 3: net net all together, this is just you might slow
Speaker 3: down the onslaught and you might not, but you're certainly
Speaker 3: not gonna turn anything around or change the calculus in Moscow.
Speaker 2: That's the key point.
Speaker 1: Do you think that Trump administration will start putting more
Speaker 1: pressure on uh on Zelensky at some point to capitulate.
Speaker 1: I mean, I hate to use that word. I know
Speaker 1: that's why Zelenski would view it. But listen, if you
Speaker 1: if you ain't holding a good hand and it just
Speaker 1: keeps getting worse, you know, doubling down is not a
Speaker 1: viable option for you, mister Zelenski. You're gonna have to
Speaker 1: tone it down and accept some of Rush's conditions in
Speaker 1: order to bring a peace.
Speaker 3: Yeah, to piggyback off your analogy, it's like you're in
Speaker 3: a hot stakes poker gamble and you see in your
Speaker 3: hand here, you've got a pair of sixes and a
Speaker 3: bunch of other lower cards and that's it. And you
Speaker 3: know that there's at least a pair of face cards
Speaker 3: on the other side, you know that, and you keep
Speaker 3: putting more and more money into the pot, right just
Speaker 3: to stave off being called.
Speaker 2: And that doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 3: But to answer to your question, is I don't think so,
Speaker 3: because he's that's what Trump should have done. Like the
Speaker 3: first week of his administration, and he had many opportunities
Speaker 3: to do it since then, given that he's now basically
Speaker 3: gone all in and said, Okay.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna give you more stuff.
Speaker 3: We're gonna turn this bigots back on, even if it's
Speaker 3: only a little bit, it doesn't appear that he has
Speaker 3: any intention at all to compel Zelensky to do the logical, rational,
Speaker 3: moral thing for his country. So I think that he's
Speaker 3: just gonna let it roll. And I don't understand why.
Speaker 1: Well, not to poke holes in your analogy, which is
Speaker 1: a good one, so the one I was thinking of,
Speaker 1: But in that poker game analogy, it's that scenario, except
Speaker 1: you're playing with your cards face up.
Speaker 2: Okay, I mean right, seriously, that's that's an even better one.
Speaker 3: That's exactly what we're both sides are playing cards space.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: That's a good one, man. You can have it and
Speaker 1: feel free to use it. Daniel Dae, I will use
Speaker 1: that today on my show. I promise you thinks for that.
Speaker 1: It's Daniel Davis Deep Dive every week here at beginning
Speaker 1: at a thirty on the fifty five KRSSE Morning Show.
Speaker 1: You can find his podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive just
Speaker 1: search for it where you find your podcast, and I'll
Speaker 1: look forward to day when I'm on your podcast show.
Speaker 2: Dad.
Speaker 1: I can't wait for that day. I promise you we'll
Speaker 1: see you then. I I love you, brother, We'll talk soon.
Speaker 1: It's eight thirty eight thirty nine fifty five krs DE
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