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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Caule. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. Why the Iran ceasefire collapsed In one week?

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<v Speaker 1>The Iran ceasefire is over. What looked like a fragile

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<v Speaker 1>but functional pause and hostilities has collapsed into sustained bombing campaigns,

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<v Speaker 1>a naval blockade, and now attacks on commercial shipping in

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<v Speaker 1>the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the basic sequence. A ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>agreed in the April five hundred period, held for roughly

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<v Speaker 1>ten weeks. Then, starting July thirteenth, the U. S resumed

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<v Speaker 1>strikes three consecutive nights, targeting Iranian coastal defense systems, missile sites,

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<v Speaker 1>and maritime infrastructure at Boucher bandar Abbas and Greater tim Island.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, the U. S. Navy deployed nineteen warships,

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<v Speaker 1>including two aircraft carriers, to enforce a formal blockade of

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian ports. The blockade began July fifteenth. The signal here

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<v Speaker 1>isn't just that fighting resumed. It's that the character of

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<v Speaker 1>the conflict shifted. A declared naval blockade is a significant

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<v Speaker 1>escalation in legal and military terms. It moves the confrontation

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<v Speaker 1>from periodic strikes to a sustained pressure campaign with direct

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<v Speaker 1>consequences for global shipping. Iran's response came fast. Iranian missile

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<v Speaker 1>struck two UAE tankers in the Strait of hall Moves,

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<v Speaker 1>the Albahir and the Mambassa. One Indian crew member was

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<v Speaker 1>killed eight others were injured. Iran described the vessels as

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<v Speaker 1>rogue supertankers and claimed the strikes were justified. That matters

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<v Speaker 1>because the Strait of hor Moves carries roughly twenty percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the world's oil supply. It's not a symbolic target.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the choke point, and global oil markets responded accordingly.

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<v Speaker 1>Bent crewdes surged nine point five nine percent on the

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<v Speaker 1>day the blockade was announced, the biggest single day percentage

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<v Speaker 1>gain in over six years. The important distinction is that

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<v Speaker 1>we've moved from a phase where the strait was under

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<v Speaker 1>threat to a phase where it's actively contested. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>different risk calculation for shipping companies, for energy markets, and

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<v Speaker 1>for the Gulf States dependent on that corridor. Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>signaled the campaign isn't close to finished. He stated the

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<v Speaker 1>US will target Iranian power plants in bridges starting next

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<v Speaker 1>week unless Rain returns to the negotiating table. He also

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<v Speaker 1>declined to rule out deploying ground forces to remove Iran's

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<v Speaker 1>enriched uranium stockpiles. Here's the thing. The phrase he used

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<v Speaker 1>for the overall campaign was military stirmish, which tells you

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<v Speaker 1>something about how the administration is framing this publicly. But

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<v Speaker 1>the operational scope two carrier strike groups, hundreds of aircraft,

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<v Speaker 1>a declared blockade, and now threats against civilian infrastructure doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>fit that framing. The key implication is that Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>using the escalation ledder as a negotiating instrument. Each step

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<v Speaker 1>up is also an invitation to negotiate before the next one.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether or On reads it that way or whether they

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<v Speaker 1>calculate that conceding under military pressure sets an unacceptable precedent

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<v Speaker 1>is the unresolved question.

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<v Speaker 2>One development that's easy to man in this context. Trump

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<v Speaker 2>on Iraqi Prime Minister al Zaidi agreed this week that

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<v Speaker 2>US forces will leave Iraq by September thirtieth, twenty three

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<v Speaker 2>years after the initial invasion. The timing is worth noting

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<v Speaker 2>the US is simultaneously intensifying military operations against Iran while

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<v Speaker 2>withdrawing the ground presence that has anchored its regional posture

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<v Speaker 2>for two decades. US oil companies remain in Iraq. US

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<v Speaker 2>combat troops do not consider this elsewhere. Russia issued an

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<v Speaker 2>explicit warning that any METO troops deployed to Ukraine as

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<v Speaker 2>peacekeepers will be treated as legitimate military targets. The Russian

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<v Speaker 2>Foreign Ministry characterized such a deployment as foreign intervention. This

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<v Speaker 2>comes as the European Commission and Ukraine signed a new

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<v Speaker 2>joint drone production deal, the first EU wide agreement of

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<v Speaker 2>its kind, with nineteen founding partners, and a planned of

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<v Speaker 2>spansion into anti ballistic missile systems by twenty twenty eight.

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<v Speaker 2>The EU is building a defense integration track with Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>that doesn't require an NATO membership, at least not yet.

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<v Speaker 2>Russia's warning is designed to raise the cost of that approach.

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<v Speaker 2>The practical test will come if and when any ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>in Ukraine produces a stabilization force proposal. That conversation is

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<v Speaker 2>happening in Paris and on Western coalition numbers, and Moscow

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<v Speaker 2>is putting its position on the record. Early one part

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<v Speaker 2>of all and one one part of all. Two things

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<v Speaker 2>matter most in the next seventy two hours. First whether

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<v Speaker 2>a RAM signals any willingness to negotiate before Trump's threatened

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<v Speaker 2>infrastructure strikes begin. Second, whether the HOMU situation produces further

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<v Speaker 2>shipping casualties, because that's the variable most likely to drive

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<v Speaker 2>a broader regional response from Gulf states in global energy markets,

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire didn't just collapse. It collapsed into something with

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<v Speaker 2>a harder edge than what came before. That's the frame

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<v Speaker 2>to keep in mind. Thanks for listening. This podcast was

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<v Speaker 2>built using AI technology. A yes Week production