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<v Speaker 1>Day twenty nine, Happy Tuesday to you. A great time

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<v Speaker 1>to be tuned into the fifty five KRC Morning Show

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<v Speaker 1>at this time every Tuesday would get the pleasure of

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<v Speaker 1>welcoming retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to get a Daniel

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<v Speaker 1>Davis deep dive. We're going to continue our ongoing discussion

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<v Speaker 1>over the status of the Russian Ukraine war. Excuse me, Daniel,

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<v Speaker 1>and what appeared to be I don't know what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on with these talks. I know Ukraine's wanting a ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 1>and Russia says the terms to bring about a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>that Ukrainians demanding are a little bit too onerous. They

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<v Speaker 1>aren't going to concede to that, so they continue to

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<v Speaker 1>fight while at the same time talking about ceasefire. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess overnight Russia filed one hundred and thirty nine more

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<v Speaker 1>drones into Ukraine, and Ukraine's response to these actions by

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<v Speaker 1>Russia seemed to be rather anemic by comparison, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course Russia has been much more successful at shooting down

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<v Speaker 1>drones and other missiles that have gone into Russia or

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<v Speaker 1>into the Russian occupied Bass and no end in sight.

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<v Speaker 2>I maybe maybe.

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<v Speaker 1>You can make some sense out of this for my

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<v Speaker 1>listener's day, Yell, I certainly can't.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, I think I can make sense of it.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually, just the the what the sense is is not

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<v Speaker 3>really good for the Ukraine side though, And I think

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<v Speaker 3>that Russia is saying, hey, I'm in no rush.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything's on the advantage for me.

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<v Speaker 3>If if I can get a deal that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>help me out, I'll do that, but only if it's

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<v Speaker 3>going to work out the way I want.

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<v Speaker 2>If not, we'll just keep fighting.

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<v Speaker 3>Whereas kind of what I've been saying for a long time,

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<v Speaker 3>Russia does not need a negotiated settlement.

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine does.

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<v Speaker 3>And so once you're on that side of the negotiation,

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<v Speaker 3>then all the leverage continues to accrue on the more

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<v Speaker 3>powerful side with the Russians. So, for example, over not

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<v Speaker 3>you had, I guess last night before I went to bed,

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<v Speaker 3>the comment coming out of Riod after the meetings was

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<v Speaker 3>that that the Russians in the US side were kind

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<v Speaker 3>of close to some kind of an agreement that they

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<v Speaker 3>expected to have a joint statement published today. Warning the

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<v Speaker 3>Russian said, yeah, we're not going to publish any statement,

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<v Speaker 3>but we're still talking about stuff. The only thing that

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<v Speaker 3>the Russian media is talking about is a Black Sea

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<v Speaker 3>deal to open the sea back up for Russian grain

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<v Speaker 3>and fertilizers, something that's really important to the Russian side.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't even talk at all about the ceasefire on

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<v Speaker 3>the energy system, etc. So that tells you where the

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<v Speaker 3>Russian mind is that they're like not in a hurry

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<v Speaker 3>on this, And of course that's aggravating both the US

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<v Speaker 3>and the Ukraine side because they're still getting attacked every night.

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<v Speaker 3>As you mentioned, they're still getting attacked on the ground

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<v Speaker 3>every single day, twenty four to seven non stop.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're getting a little bit antsy.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think that's part of the Russian's negotiating strategy

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<v Speaker 3>is to make them antsy.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, clearly, if you have the upper hand and the

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<v Speaker 1>longer it drags on, the better your hand becomes. There

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem to be a whole lot of incentive to

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<v Speaker 1>sit down and stop it unless you think about the

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<v Speaker 1>loss of life and the ultimate goal and purpose of

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<v Speaker 1>what you're trying to accomplis in your war with Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>So the way I understand it is these negotiations are

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<v Speaker 1>not in a group where you have Ukrainian instead of

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<v Speaker 1>the table with Russians in the United States or any

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<v Speaker 1>other neutral country trying to act as a mediator between this.

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<v Speaker 1>It's sort of the United States talking with Russia and

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<v Speaker 1>hoping to come up with a package of of proposals

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<v Speaker 1>from Russia that will satisfy Russia to enter into the ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 1>and then when Ukraine finds out about some of the

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<v Speaker 1>terms of conditions that are leaked out or otherwise presented,

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<v Speaker 1>they're like, no, So, I guess is it The Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administrations hope that they can sort of convince Ukraine, Dude,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna have to accept this. There is no other path.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's exactly what they're doing, or more more

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<v Speaker 3>than asking, I think probably telling. And so I think

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<v Speaker 3>the United States wants to first of all come with

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<v Speaker 3>the joint situation that they're willing to or that we're

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<v Speaker 3>willing to support, that the Russians can agree to, and

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<v Speaker 3>then they'll have a separate negotiation with Ukraine, say here's

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<v Speaker 3>what we're willing to do, are you Because I suspect

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<v Speaker 3>that we're gonna get to the point of where the

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration finally comes up with something that's agreeable with

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<v Speaker 3>the Russian side. It's gonna be small, and then he's

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<v Speaker 3>gonna tell the Ukraine side basically, take it or leave it.

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<v Speaker 2>This is what we're willing to do. I'm not willing

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<v Speaker 2>to do anything else.

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<v Speaker 3>And if you don't get on board with this, you

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<v Speaker 3>and the Europeans can figure this out, because we're gonna walk.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think that that's what the situation is

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<v Speaker 3>set up for. There was a twelve hour talk yesterday

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<v Speaker 3>between Russia and the United States, and then today there's

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<v Speaker 3>talks with the Ukraine side that are scheduled. And so far,

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<v Speaker 3>every time there's been joint talks from back to backside,

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<v Speaker 3>the US Ukraine side is always much shorter than the

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<v Speaker 3>Russian side. So that tells you a little bit about

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<v Speaker 3>where America's heads at.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you use the word small and describing this this

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<v Speaker 1>present negotiations. Is this negotiating over a cease fire of

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<v Speaker 1>some length of time or are they really truly to

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<v Speaker 1>go siating an end to this conflict? Or is it

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<v Speaker 1>somewhere gray area in between? Yeah, it's it's definitely including both.

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<v Speaker 3>The Russian side this morning did say that that that

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<v Speaker 3>that's one of the things they're looking at as a

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<v Speaker 3>part of this they say, look, we can talk about

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<v Speaker 3>the near term, which is, you know, some kind of

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<v Speaker 3>a very limited cease fire. That's why I keep saying

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<v Speaker 3>it's a small deal they're even talking about right now.

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<v Speaker 3>But then they're also saying, look, and here's the bigger

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<v Speaker 3>issues that you can't take these off the table because

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<v Speaker 3>this is where I'm going. The only reason we want

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<v Speaker 3>to have is theas fire is to get to right here.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that there was a real message sent

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<v Speaker 3>yesterday by saragay Lavrov. He was addressing an economic forum

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<v Speaker 3>UH in Russia, and in the toward the end of

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<v Speaker 3>the conversation he said and kind of by the way,

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<v Speaker 3>we're gonna still insist upon the denocification of the Ukrainian government.

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<v Speaker 2>We're not going to allow you know that to.

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<v Speaker 3>Continue on, which so he's clearly saying we're not just

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<v Speaker 3>negotiating and end of the conflict. We still expect all

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<v Speaker 3>of our objectives to be met. One of the big oneses,

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<v Speaker 3>which is their definition of denoxification, which either means the

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<v Speaker 3>replacement of the Zelensky regime through elections or through military means.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that that's where they're at.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, And what of this request by some to have

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<v Speaker 1>a certain amount of peacekeepers placed in Ukraine. I've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the number ten thousand just recently, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>been widely observed that ten thousand soldiers in Ukraine it

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<v Speaker 1>could no way shape or form fendofs seven hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>Russian soldiers or troops should they decide they want to

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<v Speaker 1>make a move forward. And that seems obvious to me.

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<v Speaker 1>But the idea of placing NATO aligned countries, United States soldiers,

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<v Speaker 1>European Union aligned forces, that just invites this thing to

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<v Speaker 1>escalate into a broader war, which frankly, Daniel Davis scares

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<v Speaker 1>the hell out of me.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, in a certain sense, it's kind of embarrassing

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<v Speaker 3>for our side because you may recall, I think it

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<v Speaker 3>was toward the the first of February, maybe the end

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<v Speaker 3>of January, Zelenski said he wanted a two hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 3>person peacekeeping force, and then several weeks later it was like,

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<v Speaker 3>all right, well one hundred thousand, and then Kier Starmer

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<v Speaker 3>and Macron we're talking well maybe forty thousand, and now

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<v Speaker 3>then somebody's talking about ten thousand, and then Russia the

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<v Speaker 3>whole time that he's never changed and said there won't

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<v Speaker 3>be one NATO soldier on the territory of Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Will never agree to that.

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<v Speaker 3>Apparently they will consider non NATO forces to patrol and monitor.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know, we're talking a two thousand kilometer front here. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>so and you know ten thousand. I mean, if you

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<v Speaker 3>put one guy over ten thousand spread over that period.

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<v Speaker 2>Of time, you wouldn't even be able to.

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<v Speaker 3>You might be at a cell phone range. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>not enough to do anything. So it just shows that frankly,

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<v Speaker 3>the West side is just not serious about this because

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<v Speaker 3>they just don't have the resources to do it.

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<v Speaker 1>So is our negotiating position are of negotiating on behalf

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<v Speaker 1>of the entire European Union? Are our NATO countries? I

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<v Speaker 1>mean we are we the ones in that role because

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see Macron sitting at the table. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>he's over in France making grandom comments about what he

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<v Speaker 1>might want, and Germany's making comments about what they might want,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera. But the only people at the

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<v Speaker 1>table are you know, the moderators from Saudi Arabia, the

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<v Speaker 1>United States, and then of course Ukraine and Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>You may recall there was an interesting engagement between General

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<v Speaker 3>Keith Kellogg, who is the Trump's envoy to the Russia

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine War, or he was at first.

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<v Speaker 2>Now he's just to the Ukraine side.

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<v Speaker 3>But at the Munich Security Conference he was part of

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<v Speaker 3>a roundtable panel and the European moderator was asking him,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, we're about to get into these negotiations and

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<v Speaker 3>it's multi party and he said, and Kelly said, well, actually,

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<v Speaker 3>you know it's two two antagonists.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the United States in Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>And she said incredulously, Well, so what you're talking in

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<v Speaker 3>Russia or Europe won't even be at the table initially. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>that's what I'm telling you. So they're not at the table,

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<v Speaker 3>and we haven't been shy about telling them. And look,

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<v Speaker 3>and why would they because the West side itself is

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<v Speaker 3>so far.

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<v Speaker 2>Apart on what the European Union wants.

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<v Speaker 3>With this Coalition of the Willing, which is still born,

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<v Speaker 3>it's not even gonna have a chance. And then where

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<v Speaker 3>the US is, So why would we want people at

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<v Speaker 3>a table with Russia when we're all over the map.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that Trump is calculating, We're going to

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<v Speaker 3>see what I'll agree to, and then you guys can

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<v Speaker 3>figure out if you're going to agree accept what I

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<v Speaker 3>have up there.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that's kind of where we really are.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, in a traditional negotiation, you know my litigation days

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<v Speaker 1>when I was practicing law. Actively, you make a big

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<v Speaker 1>ask up front. You know you want everything and the

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<v Speaker 1>sun and the moon, and you're willing to back off

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<v Speaker 1>of that and concede some points in your demands just

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<v Speaker 1>to you know, become a little bit more reasonable, but

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<v Speaker 1>you can secure the vast majority of what you want.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that what the Russians are doing right now? Are

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<v Speaker 1>going to are they willing to if if Ukraine starts

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<v Speaker 1>to entertain some proposal, listen, We'll say okay to a ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll say okay to the resolution of the war. But

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<v Speaker 1>you've got to back off X, Y and Z or

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<v Speaker 1>is Russia just like no, this is it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I would wager, probably from your litigation experience, if

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<v Speaker 3>one party has all the cards and all the leverage,

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<v Speaker 3>they're ask is not negotiable. This is what we're gonna get.

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<v Speaker 3>You can either agree to it or we'll take it

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<v Speaker 3>in open court.

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<v Speaker 2>I think is that.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's closer to where we're at because too

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<v Speaker 3>many people in the West don't have an appreciation for

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<v Speaker 3>the existential nature of this. For the Russian side, when

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<v Speaker 3>they say the denocification, they are connecting this to World

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<v Speaker 3>War Two and they said, this is what the previous

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<v Speaker 3>generation did.

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<v Speaker 2>We're not going to allow this to still exist.

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<v Speaker 3>We're not going to just stop the fighting and let

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<v Speaker 3>the same what they view as the cause of all

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<v Speaker 3>this stuff continue to perpetuate because they think it'll just

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<v Speaker 3>come back later. And the other issue that's unappreciated is

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<v Speaker 3>that the Russian speaking and Russian ethnic people in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>are a non negotiable issue to protect right the Russians,

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<v Speaker 3>and that means the ones on the Ukraine side of

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<v Speaker 3>the current line of contact.

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<v Speaker 1>Complicated it is and it doesn't seem to get any better.

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<v Speaker 1>Every week we talk Daniel Davis Steve Dae. Find his

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<v Speaker 1>podcast online and tune in every Tuesday at eight thirty

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<v Speaker 1>for this always interesting, if not frightening conversation that we have.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel love having you on the show, My friend Sex

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<v Speaker 1>have a great week. It's a forty couple to eight

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<v Speaker 1>forty one if you have Carsey the Talk Station. The

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<v Speaker 1>incomparable doctor Megan Frew, part of the dental practice of

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<v Speaker 1>peck and Fru dynamic due of dentistry. They are She'll

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<v Speaker 1>be on next Hope you can stick around. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for taking