Speaker 1: Day twenty nine, Happy Tuesday to you. A great time
Speaker 1: to be tuned into the fifty five KRC Morning Show
Speaker 1: at this time every Tuesday would get the pleasure of
Speaker 1: welcoming retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to get a Daniel
Speaker 1: Davis deep dive. We're going to continue our ongoing discussion
Speaker 1: over the status of the Russian Ukraine war. Excuse me, Daniel,
Speaker 1: and what appeared to be I don't know what's going
Speaker 1: on with these talks. I know Ukraine's wanting a ceasefire,
Speaker 1: and Russia says the terms to bring about a ceasefire
Speaker 1: that Ukrainians demanding are a little bit too onerous. They
Speaker 1: aren't going to concede to that, so they continue to
Speaker 1: fight while at the same time talking about ceasefire. I
Speaker 1: guess overnight Russia filed one hundred and thirty nine more
Speaker 1: drones into Ukraine, and Ukraine's response to these actions by
Speaker 1: Russia seemed to be rather anemic by comparison, and of
Speaker 1: course Russia has been much more successful at shooting down
Speaker 1: drones and other missiles that have gone into Russia or
Speaker 1: into the Russian occupied Bass and no end in sight.
Speaker 2: I maybe maybe.
Speaker 1: You can make some sense out of this for my
Speaker 1: listener's day, Yell, I certainly can't.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think I can make sense of it.
Speaker 3: Actually, just the the what the sense is is not
Speaker 3: really good for the Ukraine side though, And I think
Speaker 3: that Russia is saying, hey, I'm in no rush.
Speaker 2: Everything's on the advantage for me.
Speaker 3: If if I can get a deal that's going to
Speaker 3: help me out, I'll do that, but only if it's
Speaker 3: going to work out the way I want.
Speaker 2: If not, we'll just keep fighting.
Speaker 3: Whereas kind of what I've been saying for a long time,
Speaker 3: Russia does not need a negotiated settlement.
Speaker 2: Ukraine does.
Speaker 3: And so once you're on that side of the negotiation,
Speaker 3: then all the leverage continues to accrue on the more
Speaker 3: powerful side with the Russians. So, for example, over not
Speaker 3: you had, I guess last night before I went to bed,
Speaker 3: the comment coming out of Riod after the meetings was
Speaker 3: that that the Russians in the US side were kind
Speaker 3: of close to some kind of an agreement that they
Speaker 3: expected to have a joint statement published today. Warning the
Speaker 3: Russian said, yeah, we're not going to publish any statement,
Speaker 3: but we're still talking about stuff. The only thing that
Speaker 3: the Russian media is talking about is a Black Sea
Speaker 3: deal to open the sea back up for Russian grain
Speaker 3: and fertilizers, something that's really important to the Russian side.
Speaker 3: They didn't even talk at all about the ceasefire on
Speaker 3: the energy system, etc. So that tells you where the
Speaker 3: Russian mind is that they're like not in a hurry
Speaker 3: on this, And of course that's aggravating both the US
Speaker 3: and the Ukraine side because they're still getting attacked every night.
Speaker 3: As you mentioned, they're still getting attacked on the ground
Speaker 3: every single day, twenty four to seven non stop.
Speaker 2: So they're getting a little bit antsy.
Speaker 3: But I think that's part of the Russian's negotiating strategy
Speaker 3: is to make them antsy.
Speaker 1: Well, clearly, if you have the upper hand and the
Speaker 1: longer it drags on, the better your hand becomes. There
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be a whole lot of incentive to
Speaker 1: sit down and stop it unless you think about the
Speaker 1: loss of life and the ultimate goal and purpose of
Speaker 1: what you're trying to accomplis in your war with Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So the way I understand it is these negotiations are
Speaker 1: not in a group where you have Ukrainian instead of
Speaker 1: the table with Russians in the United States or any
Speaker 1: other neutral country trying to act as a mediator between this.
Speaker 1: It's sort of the United States talking with Russia and
Speaker 1: hoping to come up with a package of of proposals
Speaker 1: from Russia that will satisfy Russia to enter into the ceasefire,
Speaker 1: and then when Ukraine finds out about some of the
Speaker 1: terms of conditions that are leaked out or otherwise presented,
Speaker 1: they're like, no, So, I guess is it The Trump
Speaker 1: administrations hope that they can sort of convince Ukraine, Dude,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to accept this. There is no other path.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think that's exactly what they're doing, or more more
Speaker 3: than asking, I think probably telling. And so I think
Speaker 3: the United States wants to first of all come with
Speaker 3: the joint situation that they're willing to or that we're
Speaker 3: willing to support, that the Russians can agree to, and
Speaker 3: then they'll have a separate negotiation with Ukraine, say here's
Speaker 3: what we're willing to do, are you Because I suspect
Speaker 3: that we're gonna get to the point of where the
Speaker 3: Trump administration finally comes up with something that's agreeable with
Speaker 3: the Russian side. It's gonna be small, and then he's
Speaker 3: gonna tell the Ukraine side basically, take it or leave it.
Speaker 2: This is what we're willing to do. I'm not willing
Speaker 2: to do anything else.
Speaker 3: And if you don't get on board with this, you
Speaker 3: and the Europeans can figure this out, because we're gonna walk.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that that's what the situation is
Speaker 3: set up for. There was a twelve hour talk yesterday
Speaker 3: between Russia and the United States, and then today there's
Speaker 3: talks with the Ukraine side that are scheduled. And so far,
Speaker 3: every time there's been joint talks from back to backside,
Speaker 3: the US Ukraine side is always much shorter than the
Speaker 3: Russian side. So that tells you a little bit about
Speaker 3: where America's heads at.
Speaker 1: Well, you use the word small and describing this this
Speaker 1: present negotiations. Is this negotiating over a cease fire of
Speaker 1: some length of time or are they really truly to
Speaker 1: go siating an end to this conflict? Or is it
Speaker 1: somewhere gray area in between? Yeah, it's it's definitely including both.
Speaker 3: The Russian side this morning did say that that that
Speaker 3: that's one of the things they're looking at as a
Speaker 3: part of this they say, look, we can talk about
Speaker 3: the near term, which is, you know, some kind of
Speaker 3: a very limited cease fire. That's why I keep saying
Speaker 3: it's a small deal they're even talking about right now.
Speaker 3: But then they're also saying, look, and here's the bigger
Speaker 3: issues that you can't take these off the table because
Speaker 3: this is where I'm going. The only reason we want
Speaker 3: to have is theas fire is to get to right here.
Speaker 3: And I think that there was a real message sent
Speaker 3: yesterday by saragay Lavrov. He was addressing an economic forum
Speaker 3: UH in Russia, and in the toward the end of
Speaker 3: the conversation he said and kind of by the way,
Speaker 3: we're gonna still insist upon the denocification of the Ukrainian government.
Speaker 2: We're not going to allow you know that to.
Speaker 3: Continue on, which so he's clearly saying we're not just
Speaker 3: negotiating and end of the conflict. We still expect all
Speaker 3: of our objectives to be met. One of the big oneses,
Speaker 3: which is their definition of denoxification, which either means the
Speaker 3: replacement of the Zelensky regime through elections or through military means.
Speaker 2: I think that that's where they're at.
Speaker 1: Well, And what of this request by some to have
Speaker 1: a certain amount of peacekeepers placed in Ukraine. I've seen
Speaker 1: the number ten thousand just recently, and I think it's
Speaker 1: been widely observed that ten thousand soldiers in Ukraine it
Speaker 1: could no way shape or form fendofs seven hundred thousand
Speaker 1: Russian soldiers or troops should they decide they want to
Speaker 1: make a move forward. And that seems obvious to me.
Speaker 1: But the idea of placing NATO aligned countries, United States soldiers,
Speaker 1: European Union aligned forces, that just invites this thing to
Speaker 1: escalate into a broader war, which frankly, Daniel Davis scares
Speaker 1: the hell out of me.
Speaker 3: You know, in a certain sense, it's kind of embarrassing
Speaker 3: for our side because you may recall, I think it
Speaker 3: was toward the the first of February, maybe the end
Speaker 3: of January, Zelenski said he wanted a two hundred thousand
Speaker 3: person peacekeeping force, and then several weeks later it was like,
Speaker 3: all right, well one hundred thousand, and then Kier Starmer
Speaker 3: and Macron we're talking well maybe forty thousand, and now
Speaker 3: then somebody's talking about ten thousand, and then Russia the
Speaker 3: whole time that he's never changed and said there won't
Speaker 3: be one NATO soldier on the territory of Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Will never agree to that.
Speaker 3: Apparently they will consider non NATO forces to patrol and monitor.
Speaker 3: But you know, we're talking a two thousand kilometer front here. Yeah,
Speaker 3: so and you know ten thousand. I mean, if you
Speaker 3: put one guy over ten thousand spread over that period.
Speaker 2: Of time, you wouldn't even be able to.
Speaker 3: You might be at a cell phone range. So that's
Speaker 3: not enough to do anything. So it just shows that frankly,
Speaker 3: the West side is just not serious about this because
Speaker 3: they just don't have the resources to do it.
Speaker 1: So is our negotiating position are of negotiating on behalf
Speaker 1: of the entire European Union? Are our NATO countries? I
Speaker 1: mean we are we the ones in that role because
Speaker 1: I don't see Macron sitting at the table. I mean
Speaker 1: he's over in France making grandom comments about what he
Speaker 1: might want, and Germany's making comments about what they might want,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But the only people at the
Speaker 1: table are you know, the moderators from Saudi Arabia, the
Speaker 1: United States, and then of course Ukraine and Russia.
Speaker 3: You may recall there was an interesting engagement between General
Speaker 3: Keith Kellogg, who is the Trump's envoy to the Russia
Speaker 3: Ukraine War, or he was at first.
Speaker 2: Now he's just to the Ukraine side.
Speaker 3: But at the Munich Security Conference he was part of
Speaker 3: a roundtable panel and the European moderator was asking him,
Speaker 3: you know, we're about to get into these negotiations and
Speaker 3: it's multi party and he said, and Kelly said, well, actually,
Speaker 3: you know it's two two antagonists.
Speaker 2: It's the United States in Russia.
Speaker 3: And she said incredulously, Well, so what you're talking in
Speaker 3: Russia or Europe won't even be at the table initially. Yeah,
Speaker 3: that's what I'm telling you. So they're not at the table,
Speaker 3: and we haven't been shy about telling them. And look,
Speaker 3: and why would they because the West side itself is
Speaker 3: so far.
Speaker 2: Apart on what the European Union wants.
Speaker 3: With this Coalition of the Willing, which is still born,
Speaker 3: it's not even gonna have a chance. And then where
Speaker 3: the US is, So why would we want people at
Speaker 3: a table with Russia when we're all over the map.
Speaker 3: So I think that Trump is calculating, We're going to
Speaker 3: see what I'll agree to, and then you guys can
Speaker 3: figure out if you're going to agree accept what I
Speaker 3: have up there.
Speaker 2: So I think that's kind of where we really are.
Speaker 1: Well, in a traditional negotiation, you know my litigation days
Speaker 1: when I was practicing law. Actively, you make a big
Speaker 1: ask up front. You know you want everything and the
Speaker 1: sun and the moon, and you're willing to back off
Speaker 1: of that and concede some points in your demands just
Speaker 1: to you know, become a little bit more reasonable, but
Speaker 1: you can secure the vast majority of what you want.
Speaker 1: Is that what the Russians are doing right now? Are
Speaker 1: going to are they willing to if if Ukraine starts
Speaker 1: to entertain some proposal, listen, We'll say okay to a ceasefire,
Speaker 1: we'll say okay to the resolution of the war. But
Speaker 1: you've got to back off X, Y and Z or
Speaker 1: is Russia just like no, this is it?
Speaker 3: Well, I would wager, probably from your litigation experience, if
Speaker 3: one party has all the cards and all the leverage,
Speaker 3: they're ask is not negotiable. This is what we're gonna get.
Speaker 3: You can either agree to it or we'll take it
Speaker 3: in open court.
Speaker 2: I think is that.
Speaker 3: I think that's closer to where we're at because too
Speaker 3: many people in the West don't have an appreciation for
Speaker 3: the existential nature of this. For the Russian side, when
Speaker 3: they say the denocification, they are connecting this to World
Speaker 3: War Two and they said, this is what the previous
Speaker 3: generation did.
Speaker 2: We're not going to allow this to still exist.
Speaker 3: We're not going to just stop the fighting and let
Speaker 3: the same what they view as the cause of all
Speaker 3: this stuff continue to perpetuate because they think it'll just
Speaker 3: come back later. And the other issue that's unappreciated is
Speaker 3: that the Russian speaking and Russian ethnic people in Ukraine
Speaker 3: are a non negotiable issue to protect right the Russians,
Speaker 3: and that means the ones on the Ukraine side of
Speaker 3: the current line of contact.
Speaker 1: Complicated it is and it doesn't seem to get any better.
Speaker 1: Every week we talk Daniel Davis Steve Dae. Find his
Speaker 1: podcast online and tune in every Tuesday at eight thirty
Speaker 1: for this always interesting, if not frightening conversation that we have.
Speaker 1: Daniel love having you on the show, My friend Sex
Speaker 1: have a great week. It's a forty couple to eight
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