Speaker 1: Welcome to the best sports betting shot on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today and I am your host,
Andy Lawren. It is Monday Loaded show. We got to
recap the NFL weekend. We got to break down the
latest Steam report. We're gonna hit up MLB. We're gonna
give you a college football team you want to fade.
We are going to start the week off sharp. We've
got UFC three nineteen this weekend. So if you have
any questions for me here for the guests, let us
know in the live chat or in the comments section.
Johnny's gonna join us, get a started with the Steam report.
Bill Krackenberger is gonna join us for an MLB prop
and Brian Power is going to break down Padres, Giants
and college football. Forgive me, I lost my voice over
the week. Loses would would be one thing. Lose would
be like you can find it. You could find dB
Cooper before you could find my voice.
Speaker 2: There's like, so.
Speaker 1: I had Steve Barrel on standby today. So this is
as loud as your boy's gonna get.
Speaker 2: So apologize.
Speaker 1: Don't expect any gigantic laughs or anything for me. All right,
Let's bring on Gianny someone that hopefully has not lost
his voice, because my man is going to be on
Contender Series tomorrow. Hopefully your voice is in good shape. Johnny,
how are you on this Monday?
Speaker 3: Yeah, just busy man, Just so much going on. Like
you said, Contender Series starts tomorrow. We have UFC three
nineteen on Saturday. I got a show coming out today
for UFC three nineteen.
Speaker 4: I have a podcast that I have to do on Wednesday.
Speaker 3: I'm doing NFL, AFC, NFC and then college football previews
on Wednesday. So busy week man. It's good, honestly doing that.
The best decision I made is getting on bet on
It again. It's just had me get more prepared than
I have in the last two seasons as.
Speaker 4: Far as NFL and college football goes.
Speaker 3: So like, just working last night for hours on for Wednesday,
I uncovered a couple nuggets nice for futures and stuff
so that I otherwise probably would have just overlooked just
because busy moving stuff over the last couple of days.
Speaker 4: It's slow today, really slow.
Speaker 3: Just a little bit of baseball and looks like they're
getting out ahead of the public because from the early
moves I saw from the overnights. It's get everything that
they landed on is exactly what the public is already
betting this morning.
Speaker 4: That always worries me.
Speaker 3: I like to pay attention when that's the case and
see how the lines do later in the day, because again,
about that time where everybody's just getting into football mode, baseball,
the recreational bettles will start slowing down and looking more
into college football, more into even preseason, and it's more
like Sharp's versus the books.
Speaker 4: As far as baseball goes.
Speaker 3: I mean, I know, with the influx of sports betting
getting bigger, bigger, bigger, you get more recreational betters than ever.
But still, I think football still front and center now
and I think that's what's garnering all the attention. And
you're seeing a lot more manipulation in Major League Baseball
as we expected. So be cautious with some of the
early moves, especially if they're seeing like they're the public
side as well, because you'll see a lot take back
later in the day.
Speaker 1: We got to talk about the preseason overs galore. I
watched some of these and I actually started betting it.
We put out client plays they both hit.
Speaker 2: I know my theory.
Speaker 1: I know what I watched. I want your theory on
why it's there's so many overs.
Speaker 3: Well, listen, I mean you could notice from just where
what the numbers opened, the totals, Like we talked about
it before Week one a preseason that you're looking at
a more efficient market, and that's what it's supposed to do.
Like we're seeing higher totals than we did in previous years.
I mean when I first came here, the highest preseason
total would be like a thirty three, you know what
I mean. Now you're seeing yesterday thirty three got steamed up,
the thirty eight, thirty eight and a halfs. They're still
betting it over and it still flies over. The game's changed, man,
and scoring is what the NFL wants, and that's what
they're giving us.
Speaker 4: Again. Eventually, the market will correct itself.
Speaker 3: And when you look over to last five thousand bets,
you're going to get pretty much fifty to fifty favorites dogs,
fifty to fifty over unders. The NFL is that efficient
that it's really hard to profit, you.
Speaker 4: Know, off the biases like back in the day.
Speaker 3: So again, now that you're seeing more and more points,
I just think we're going to see higher and higher totals.
Speaker 4: That's how you're gonna offset that.
Speaker 1: Actually, a couple of people have have come out of this.
Ethan says this everyone adopting the Dan Campbell meth in
preseason going for it on fourth down. I noticed that,
But Gihnny, here's.
Speaker 2: What I noticed.
Speaker 1: I noticed a lot of coaches and backups trying to
win a game. They were playing intense. At the end
of the half, they were the Bears and Dolphins, they
were trying to win. At the end of the game,
they were going into hurry up mode. There was a
lot more aggressive play calling, and I watched the Bears
defense get excited when they had a big stop on
fourth that it looked like the intensity of a regular
season game. I never remember seeing that in preseason. And
uh so, I think you got coaches and backups going
out saying, hey, we want to see if these guys
can win some games. If I get some of these
teams that I think look excited to win these games,
or you know, they got a really good backup quarterback situation,
I think some of these overs are really really good.
There's obvious some teams that could not care less about them.
But you can pick those up and say, Nope, not
playing those. But I'm looking at team totals and some
of these teams that showed, hey, we're excited to try
and win some of these games. So that's been that's
been my take. My new new to me was how
intense these backups and coaches were taking it, like, don't go.
Speaker 3: Out well, schemes are so advanced, you have to work
and in the preseason, like these offenses are more complex
than ever, especially with all these young coaches coming into
the game and changing it up.
Speaker 4: Yeah, back in the day, it was.
Speaker 3: Like keep your your your your plays under the hood
for toll the regular season starts. Like no one wanted
to tip their hand. It was a banilla aisle preseason,
you know what I mean.
Speaker 5: It was.
Speaker 3: Yeah, obviously you want to check out your talent and
see who your first, second third for string and who
you're cutting and going through the process, but it was
more about keeping everybody healthy and not tipping your hand
on what you're going to do during the regular season.
But now again, with these offenses being so much more
complex than ever and the rule changes more or less
forcing that hand to become more offensive oriented than ever.
You got to get started early in the preseason, and
I think there's not as much even as much fear
because of the protection of the offensive skill position players
that you're going.
Speaker 4: To get your guys hurt.
Speaker 3: You know what I mean, that you let them play
a little more in preseason than you would in the
past because they are protecting these guys.
Speaker 1: Slow Jams says it right. The Chargers Tree Lance. I
watched a lot of Tree Lance. The best thing about
Tree Lance is in preseason the wide receivers either wide
open or he's just running. There's like they're gonna get
yards pretty much every single play. He's like the perfect
preseason player to try and bet on. Love the Chargers
team totals. So yeah, we got plenty of NFL preseason
this week. Johnny, you mentioned baseball. Let's do take a
look at the steam report. We can start in NFL.
There's already been big steam moves. You know, you can
talk about some of these NFL games, and of course
I'm gonna come back at you and say, you know,
I know you get the best of the number, but
are they really worth it? So what are we seeing
here for some of.
Speaker 3: These Yeah, and the only stuff that I saw in
the accounts. Was I saw Miami get bet right away?
And because that was gonna go through a key number.
So I'll tell you now what's in the accounts. Miami
minus one and a half and two is in the accounts.
Las Vegas minus four is in the accounts. Giants plus
one and a half is in the accounts. Baltimore minus
one and a half is in the accounts. Denver minus
four is in the accounts. And I know I saw
total where's that total? Over Green Band Indianapolis? Over thirty
eight and a half Green Banddianapolis. So those already are
in the accounts. But yeah, I didn't release the subscribers
yet any of the NFL preseason just because I saw
the sharps didn't do all that great in Week one.
You know, you saw Dave Mason put out on bed
online his book got cracked. I mean that the players
went five and oh, I think on the most one
sided public that's gonna happen. Man, you know that will happen,
and you just gotta take it slow. There's a lot
of weeks, a lot of weeks, and again with the preseason,
there's a lot of intangibles. A couple of weeks to go,
and the regular season will be here, So these line
moves like this will not be happening in a couple
of weeks unless you see like a key quarterback go down. Like,
not even a skill position player is going to move
the line that significantly, you know, unless there's a huge.
Speaker 1: Over barely half a point on some of these big
name skilled position players, like exactly. All right, let's take
a look at baseball. What line moves do we have there?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 3: The only thing that I see that is opposite the
public is Colorado. It's for whatever reason, Colorado gets bet
every time they're around that two to one range.
Speaker 4: And I mean it kind of makes sense.
Speaker 3: You got to win one out of three games to
break even, So as long as they don't get swept
in the series, the worst you're going to do betting
Colorado is probably break even if they happen to get lucky,
and when two out of three games, you're probably going
to find yourself up four units three units through the
series because they're always big dogs. And we talked about it,
the money line becomes the great equalizer.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 3: A couple more signs and totals that I see Pittsburgh,
Milwaukee over that's like so public as well. The account
that I saw got over eight bet into it, over
eight that was the overnight. This morning, I didn't see
any over eight and a half, but I've been seeing
the public accounts getting over eight and a half from
that book that I know have access to. It's like
on the over they're getting all the bets far been
tracked on the over eight and a half at minus
one twenty minus one twenty five, so be careful there
nine fifty seven San Diego plus one twenty also a
public side, but they went under seven and a half.
Speaker 4: Up to minus one twenty five. Public's going over in
that one.
Speaker 3: So they're opposite on Colorado, opposite on the total in
San Diego, but Yankees Minnesota's got steamed over eight and
a half up to minus one twenty five. I saw
on the account that's getting public money as well. Detroit
at minus one thirty five was an overnight getting seen
public money on them also, and then Boston Houston over
seven and a half at even money, which is why
it's juice now at seven and a half. But again
over in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, San Diego, over Minnesota, New York
Detroit over Boston, Houston. Public sharps on the same side,
So pay attention to later line moves to see if
this was a case of manipulation to set themselves up
with a nice scalp later in the day. And the
only opposites where the Colorado side and then the under
in San Diego. So yeah, a little slow so far,
but it's Monday. Got a lot going on, Like you said,
with the big week for MMA. UFC signed their new
TV deal that got released. Good news for us, won't
have to pay for pay per views anymore.
Speaker 7: That's so.
Speaker 4: Yeah, these are looking good.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Kylie was asking about Contender Series, Johnny. Let's you and
I talk Contender Series tomorrow. They're doing Wiyans right now.
We need to make sure all these guys made wig ins.
We already had a shorten order to vote fight last week. So, uh, Kylie,
I promise we'll talk a little contenderc tomorrow. Uh. Scott,
I'll ask Brian Power about Florida State and their win total.
And the strategists asked about tennis. Uh, there's some just
weirdness going on in tennis this year, Geohnny. The players
are expressing frustration with the schedule. I would I would
just say tread lately in tennis. It's a great tournament. Traditionally,
it's a really really competitive one. The big names are playing,
but there's just some weird vibes around tennis this year.
Gotta be cautious, all right, Johnny Televim, We have it
for clients this Monday.
Speaker 3: I already have a UFC three nineteen package in there
with three bets already five percent big move.
Speaker 4: I haven't released a five percent.
Speaker 3: This entire August already, what eleven ten ten, eleven days
in uh Again, that's why I'm up over thirty percent
ROI on those five percent big moves and in the
UFC up over thirty forty units the last three hundred
and sixty five on those five percents. Again haven't fired
in a couple of weeks. But I found a nice
one for three nineteen. Dug deep into this card. I
have a four percent in there for you today that
I released, and then I gave you guys that three
percent free one on Jeff Neil at plus two forty.
He's now down the plus to ten. I think plus
two hundred or better. You're live there easily wins this
fight one out of three times. He's just dangerous everywhere.
And I know Protest, even though he lost to Ian Gary,
he looked good. He showed that even though he's packed
smokes two packs of cigarettes today, he could go fIF
teen minutes with anybody, which was good for Prodest. He
got tested, so I know everybody expects him to bounce back.
But this is a tough out against Jeff Neil because
if you look at his knockdown ratio, you'll be impressed.
Prodest may appear to have the power and he's willing
to land one, you know, take two to land his one.
But against Neil, that's a recipe for disaster. He's got
some pop, he's got grampling, and again he's just you know,
workmanlike as they come. At plus two hundred or better,
I love Jeff Neil, Like I said, I gave it
out three percent of subscribers at.
Speaker 4: Plus two forty markets moved our way so far. Great cart,
great card.
Speaker 3: UFC on the line, will beat today live six pm
Eastern on the UFC Fight Pass. You could check that
out as well. And yeah, Contender Series tomorrow baby on
ESPN Plus.
Speaker 4: I'll be there live.
Speaker 1: All right, thanks Giohnny, appreciate it. Let's have a great Monday.
Can't wait to see you again tomorrow. Guys, hit the
like button please, I forgot to ask the other show
hit the like button. Make sure you subscribe to the
wage you Talk YouTube channel. Football season is here. Get
notified when we have these breakdown videos whenever a show
goes live, So make sure you subscribe. Join the wager
Talk family here on YouTube. Let's bring in Bill Krackenberger.
We get to talk a little bit of he always
comes in, does an MLB prop. But Bill, what was
your take on the first week of NFL preseason blood Beth, Okay, no.
Speaker 6: But I mean every single pro I know, it's only
about two or three actually three of them, you know,
had had great line moves. I mean we had Buffalo
plus three, they were minus three, and then you know
they took back some money red at game time. But
I know some guys were asking me, hey, should I
take three on the other side. I don't, but if
they want to, I'm sure the value is now when
it moves six points on the other side. But however,
you know, these things happen, and I thought Buffalo should
have won to watched the end of the game, I mean,
and then first and goal at the three yard line
and with a plenty of time, they couldn't get in
the end zone even though they called a touchdown and call.
Speaker 7: But that was just one of them though.
Speaker 6: This was some variants that you normally preseason. Normally you
don't get that. So it happens. You know, you have
to have bankroll management, you have to not go crazy
on the late games. And you know, those overs were
amazing this week though, But if you remember last couple
of seasons, these overs first week has been, you know,
the way to go on a lot of these things.
Speaker 7: I really didn't. I'm just saying that the overs were
really out there.
Speaker 6: And you know what, I even thought now week two,
they were gonna be adjusted off of Week one, and
you're gonna see a lot of forties. I only seemed
like three at forty and a half, forty one and
a half, there wasn't really a lot. It's still at
thirty seven and a half. Thirty eight and a half's
out there. I expect a little bit more, especially because
your starters will play a little more in week two
unlike Week three. We just want to get them, you know,
get them ready for two weeks from then.
Speaker 7: So I expected to see a little more.
Speaker 6: So after I see these numbers, I expect to see
some uh, some line movement towards the overs. But a
very rare week where all the sharps got killed on betting,
and it's betting off of information too, betting off of starters,
betting off of coaches. So I expect a much better
week this week. And preseason has been my bread and
butter for years. So you know, it's funny when when
you have a lose, a losing week or something like that,
a winning handicap or lifetime, it's probably the time to
get on them. If you're if you're hitting you know,
forty five percent or something and you're you're you're a
lifetime fifty five percent cap or well, now you have
to return to the mean a little bit, and it's
it's time to jump back on them. In my opinion,
So I've always said that, you know, I've worked with
some great people over the years, Alan Boston, Billy Walters,
Doyle and Ship. I've worked a lot of uh, I
work a lot of I mean a lot of really
sharp syndicates.
Speaker 7: In my life, and that I always found that to
be the case.
Speaker 6: Sometimes you have to almost coddle the originator a little bit.
They doubt themselves even though they won I'm not joking,
even though they won the previous three years. In preseason football,
you have to work with your guys and say, listen,
it's one weekend, relaxed.
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, like like they you know, you have
to know short term varyings. Like I've been around this
so long.
Speaker 6: I'm gonna lose forty five games out of a you know,
out of one hundred. I mean, it's just it is
what it is, you know. But anyway, Yeah, you know,
a lot of the sharp guys.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 6: Matter of fact, like I said, there's three groups, and
I'm gonna consider myself one of them.
Speaker 7: We all lost this week.
Speaker 6: Uh and we had plenty of CLV, plenty of closing
line value, and uh, hey, it just happens. I think
I think we're gonna be geared up for a great
week two and three, especially three for three is always
really good.
Speaker 1: To love it, love it, Bill, I'm gonna keep my
eye on the team totals. That That's what I focused
on this weekend. In NFL preseason so let's talk a
little mL. We have a question in the chat from Travis.
He was asking about what are the what what sports
books have the most baseball betting options here in It's.
Speaker 6: A great question, Travis, because you're right, there aren't a
lot of betting options, Like if you're back East, you
have the Fandels, you have the DraftKings and many many
other ones that you know, bet three sixty five, all
these other ones that of course.
Speaker 7: Don't let me play.
Speaker 6: But however, if you're betting a hundred bucks to hundred
bucks there, you should should have some longevity there, especially
if you're betting some NFL on Sundays. There's a good tip,
so if you've been hot stuff all week long, make
sure you give him some action on NFL. I don't
care if you're you know, laying seven with them and
then somewhere else you're taking seven plus seven minus oh
five and losing a little money.
Speaker 7: You just want longevity in the accounts.
Speaker 6: So you know, Joe public bets on Sunday, you don't
want to not bet on Sunday. How many people I've
worked with are total bugs that you know they want
to bet steam all week and then leave the account
blank Sunday when the NFL is there.
Speaker 7: Which is the most popular betting sport. You have to
make the accounts look good.
Speaker 6: So go back to their question, I'm gonna say bet
MGM has tons of ways to bet baseball. Caesars, which
doesn't allow me to play, threw me off for winning.
But Caesars William Hill brands, I would think they have
many different ways.
Speaker 7: That many options.
Speaker 6: Someone told me over at Coast, which it copies the
fan duel line if you're a low limit better. I
think Coast has lots of options too, probably more of
an undercover out there too.
Speaker 7: Check Out stations too. I mean, I'm not allowed to
play with check out stations. Even though these books don't
let me play.
Speaker 6: Hey, I'll give them credit for letting other people play
and having lots of different lines up there.
Speaker 7: So I think that answers Travis question.
Speaker 1: Love it, Love it all right? MLB prop, come on,
give us an MLB prop. What's one you like today?
Speaker 6: Yeah, let's go to the Dodgers, and let's go to
Yoshi Yamamoto.
Speaker 7: Can't think I said that name so perfectly.
Speaker 1: Over spot On, Man, you nailed that.
Speaker 6: Really good over six and a half on strikeouts over
six and a half minus a dollar forty five. He's
up to get to Angels lineup tonight that has just
the number one strikeout rapper right hand and pitchers.
Speaker 7: So he is over this number four of his last
five roadstart.
Speaker 6: So this season, should be able to get number six here,
I'm sorry, should be able to get six innings here.
So should be able to get six innings to work
here against an Angels team that's just been so many
problems hitting the curve ball and stuff.
Speaker 7: So I do like that over four and a half.
Speaker 6: Over six and a half minus dollar forty five Yamamoto
strikeouts tonight. Hopefully that gets you guys there, get you
a little, a little action. There'll be some preseason moves here.
Not a big enough market right now, Andy, to be
honest with you, now, what I say by that is
the Vegas books aren't up yet, So Westgate Circa the
Vegas books when they're not up yet with their preseason lines.
Real tough to bet on these preseason stuff without having
a full market, you know, because I'm trying to bet
some good, good volumes.
Speaker 7: So but we'll have some do this week.
Speaker 1: Love it, love it. I think we Kylie's a bild
like Dodgers team total over four and a half. Any
opinion on that.
Speaker 7: One team total?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, listen, I'm not an over player, to
be honest with you.
Speaker 7: The props, I could bet over a lot of things.
Speaker 6: Team total, I mean, you're talking about one of the
best teams in baseball.
Speaker 7: That's not the best team, but not the team we
thought they were gonna be.
Speaker 6: But so that situation there, I'm not giving out a play,
but if anything, I would lean to the over.
Speaker 7: Onto my head, I lean to the over there. But again,
not playing that.
Speaker 1: Okay, it's non official play and height that's perfectly fine.
We got to make sure we don't. Hey, this is
something I would or would not play with my own money.
So very important, So awesome having you on Bill, What
do you have? Everyone went up for clients and thank you.
Speaker 7: Thanks so I hey, guys, jump on on the preseason.
Speaker 6: I don't you know, you know, even a monthly package
just where you get some of those NFL props and stuff.
Speaker 7: But yeah, it should be great. We have some futures
up NFL Future.
Speaker 6: They've been really good at futures lifetime ridiculous, you know,
on NFL futures, but you have to tie your money
up so at least you have action every week, you know,
for the next four months.
Speaker 7: You do have that.
Speaker 6: But I have some really good futures up and I'm
sure I'm gonna have more before kickoff of the regular season.
Speaker 1: Love it, Bill Krackenberger. Always love having you on. And
we got a lot of more NFL preseason, the regular season,
Bill Krackenberger, crack Man. And of course we'll get some
rest well, yeah, we'll get some restaurant recommendations next week.
So guys, wager Talk Insiders, make sure if you have
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brainer two ninety nine a month and you get a
five dollars coupon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no brainer.
Speaker 1: So all right. We also still are running our three
day Flex Pass schedule. It is only forty eight dollars.
You want to get your week started off on a
good note. Saves you over thirty percent. All about flexibility.
You choose the handicapper you trust. Every day you get
to play the release. You want to use somebody on Monday,
you can use somebody different on Tuesday, somebody different on Wednesday.
Or you want to save it up for the weekend,
you can do that as well. It's your picks, it's
your way. Three day flex Pass thirty percent off, only
forty eight dollars. Don't miss it. All right, let's go
all around the world. Let's give some plays. And I
actually wanted to do this segment before Brian Power comes on,
because Brian, I want you to take a look at
these and we're gonna talk about one of these. I
have Padres and Giants. I have the Giants over three
and a half on their team total. I'm fading Darvish.
He's basically has one good start this year two games ago. Yeah,
and then the very next game he only goes four
innings and has three earned runs. He has an ERA
over six point five. Giants terrible offense over the weekend.
But before those seven straight games with over three and
a half runs. It's not a client play. And I'm
gonna let you tell everyone why. I bet you have
the exact reason why it did quite make the card.
Pirates are Brewers. We're just going right back to the
Brewers minus one and a half. Brewers won nine straight,
twelve out of last thirteen. Kinton off a quality start start,
Pirates fewest runs in baseball, and then Kevin Dolan gave
you guys a winner for over the weekend. We're gonna
go right back to him. I believe it's pronounced carrot,
kind of like the vegetable against Slo brets Lava. He
likes Slovon in regulation. This is the second game that
they're going to play in this series. Leg one was brutal.
I've had two red cards and a penalty kick. They
really haven't lost a meaningful game at this venue since
early March, so it's a little bit juicy minus won sixty,
but he says it's absolutely worth it. They're coming off
a nightmare game, expect a nice bounce back spot. Hi, Brian,
get in here all right? So why do you think
I couldn't quite get there on the Giants over three
and a half team total? Why could I not get
there as a client play?
Speaker 7: Wow?
Speaker 5: What a awkward return to the program here, Andy, after
a week off. I'm very happy to be back last
week because I think not being able to make the
spot last week gave me some negative juju. I'll talk
about that a little bit, but I'm guessing you did
not want to make it. The Giants team total over
three and a half. Part of your official client guard
is well, the Giants offense at home typically is not
very good.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 5: We all know historically or Park has been friendly to
the pitchers, right, it is what we call a pitchers park.
This year it's been kind of even more pitcher friendly
the normal and no team knows that better than the
Giants himself. Second lowest scoring home team in all of
baseball this season, Andy, just three point sixty three runs
per game. Now that it three point sixty three, you
don't need to be a math major to know that
is higher than three point five. So look, there's a
chance Andy's team total could be right, and what I'm
about to give you could be right as well. You
mentioned the bad offense for the Giants over the weekend Sunday,
they were shut up by the Nationals and this is
really damning here. They were shut up by the Nationals
team that is the highest bullpen er and all Baseball
five point eight eight and is starting was starting Mackenzie Gore.
Mackenzie Gore came into that game in horrible form. This
is an even tougher matchup against the Padres, which I'm
sure you had a note there, Andy, they have the
number one bullpen er in all of baseball. I agree,
Darvish is it great although he has largest five hits
in his last two starts. The silver lining for San
Francisco and perhaps this is why maybe Andy's team total
and the full game under which is what I am
endorsing here in case you have to figure that out,
may both hit. Logan Webb starting for the Giants tonight,
and they talk about bullpens. I mentioned Padres number one
and bullpenny are well. The Giants are number two, So
we've got the two top bullpens in all of baseball.
You handicapping bullpens. As you know, Andy has become more
and more important each and every year in Major League Baseball. WEB,
He's pitched traditionally much better at home. Comes off back
to back dominance starts against the Pirates, who I know
you noted a few moments ago are the weakest lineup
in baseball. But Web twenty one strikeouts in eleven and
two thirds innings pitched in those two starts against the Pirates.
I like it. He allowed just two runs San Diego
only twenty third and runs per game overall guys, and
they averaged fewer than four on the road. To sum
it all up, all signs points to the under seven
on this one. I think that is in line, correct
me if I'm wrong, Andy, I was just joining yeah,
mentioning it with Johnny that Sharps jumped on the under.
I put the free play under seven and a half
on my page. People could check that out WT dot Buzzbetpat,
but I would still play it at seven, just for
a smaller amount.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just so we're clear, Brian got assigned the Padres
and the Giants, and I thought that was a good segue,
So yeah, you like the under and yeah, you're one
hundred percent right. I had a bunch of things like
going in my favor that I liked it, and I
was like, I can't play this.
Speaker 2: Giants team at home.
Speaker 1: They go over on the road every time and then
they come home and it's like they're holding the bats
the opposite way, like we on the power barrels on
the Power five yesterday.
Speaker 5: And I endorsed the full game over with them in
the Nationals, thinking, hey, because the Nats are a top
ten team and scoring on the road, and I was like, well,
they're facing Gore and this is all we needed was
one run the sing that came over Instead it was
a push at eight, the Nats scored all. If you
would have told me going to the game, Nats are
going to score eight runs VP, I'd say, well, we're
gonna be dancing in the streets with an easy over.
I do believe, Well, guess what we were not because
the Giants forgot the score. But hey, just because maybe
we're a look at things a little different, it doesn't
mean Andy and I can't both be right on this game. Folks,
Giants could win it four to two and we're both winners.
Speaker 1: Love it, love it. Let's talk a little college football.
We asked you to come here with a team that
you're looking to fade. We had a question in the
chat about Florida State, and you said, oh, this will
work out pretty well together. So Flora's yours.
Speaker 2: Just talk to us about college football here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm glad somebody asked about Florida State to the
way to talk cars. That be will be happy with
me as I has always challenged the algorithm, and we'll
be bringing you my take on Marshall, which I'm sure
everyone is lining up here in the chat room to
listen about. You guys are gonna want to fade Marshall.
I'll tell you why just a little bit. But for
the comment about Florida State, and this is going to
kind of tie into what a saying about Marshall in
a little bit. The books, obviously, Andy have gotten so
much sharper at pricing in the expected improvement or regression
from these teams. You take a look at Florida State.
This is a team obviously off a disastrous season, maybe
the worst season in history in Tallahassee. They win just
two games, well, they're priced at six and a half wins,
and they open with Alabama. That's likely to be a loss. Nevertheless,
I mean, I agree with what the books are doing.
I just don't see any value at a highly juiced
six and a half towards the over right. They're gonna
win more games. We know they're gonna be an improved
football team in twenty twenty five the Seminoles. It's just
that there's no value in betting that right now. The
books are saying everybody expects Florida State to improve. I
do think, looking at the schedule and the ACC they play,
two of their five ACC road games are against the
crummier teams in the conference, so I think they will
probably go over. I just don't see a lot of
value in that number. I mean, if you love Florida State,
I would say bet them to make the conference championship game.
Take a flyer on that. I think we all expect
Clemson to be there. But as for the second team,
by rule, it has to be two teams in that game. Andy,
you know, I think there's a little confusion as who
that second team may be, so you know, that might be.
If you're looking for value on Florida State, take a
fly or on and have some fun. Bet them to
make the conference championship game, because I think you takes
a step back this year. Quite frankly, I love it.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 2: What else you got for us in college football?
Speaker 1: Anything? Anything juicy?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's true. Yes, I guess I have my take
that I have that I didn't even get Marshall. This
is a team that you're gonna want to fade. Guys, Now,
why do you want to fade marshalist team that's probably
off your radar a little bit, But there is a
lot of reasons to fay. This is basically the opposite
of Florida State this year in the sense that this
was a team that won ten games in twenty twenty four,
and well, they're not going to win ten games in
twenty twenty five. Andy, you go back to right before
the Bowl last year, last year's Sun Belt champs, that
was Marshall. They didn't even get to enjoy winning the
conference title because head coach Charles Huff he bolts for
rival Southern Miss and basically took half the team with
and things got so dire for Marshall. They had just
forty one players left on the roster and ended up
having to pull out of their schedule bowl game first
Army couldn't even feel the team. So hope they enjoyed
that Sun Belt Conference championship trophy. But coming into twenty
twenty five, books are expecting a massive drop off year.
How big of a drop off They went ten and
three last year, like I said, and are now projected
for just four and a half regular season wins. That
number opened five and a half, so even that wasn't
low enough for a lot of sharp betters. And the
reason for this bleak forecast guys, only four starters back
for Marshall, their third least returning production in the country.
Tony Gibson's the new head coach. He's never been a
head coach previously. And here's the key when you kind of,
you know, open up the hood, so to speak. On
twenty twenty four, Marshall, they were not a particularly good
team last season, despite winning the Sun Belt. They were
out gained during conference play. In fact, no team that
finished with a winning conference record last year was outgained
more than Marshall, so it was a really phony record.
They were four and one and one score games plus
ten and turnover margin. They won't have that kind of
good fortune this year. And if you think four and
a half's too big of an adjustment on the win total,
we talked about this before sty. I think game by
game basis plenty of opportunities to fade the Thundering Herd,
especially when conference play starts. I mean, obviously they're huge
underdogs to Georgia in the opener. I'm not gonna exactly
running to the window to lay the points with Georgia there.
And then you've got a new FBS team Missouri State
and an FCS team Leaster Kentucky, so may leave those alone.
But once at Sun Belt time, Andy fade, fade, fade
on Marshall, I think there's a chance they could go
from winning the conference to last in their division, the
Sun Belt as well as the last conference to still
have divisions. This is the number one regression team in
all of college football.
Speaker 7: I believe.
Speaker 1: Man, it's right up my wheelhouse, Brian, because I've always
said he it's hard to be great every night for
these teams, Like just look at the Dodgers.
Speaker 2: But bad is bad, Like it's hard for a.
Speaker 1: Bad team to just all of a sudden play. Great.
So I like focusing on teams and you know, individual
athletes we can fade.
Speaker 7: Yes.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And going back to the coaching change that Marshall
had with Charles Hoff leaving for Southern Miss, this is incredible.
Southern Miss has more returning starters from Marshall on its
roster this year than Marshall has on its own roster.
That's how much Huff took off. Just pillaged the program
in Huntington. I feel about I had a great time
in Huntington, West Virginia about I don't know, thirty years ago,
I saw Randy Moss's last regular season game against my
alma Moner Ohio University threw the touchdown out of the
stadium into a McDonald's parking lot.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's this is twenty twenty five. Maybe you
have more players going to another school. Yeah, returning to
it is wild.
Speaker 5: The one they played on last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, amazing. All right, Brian Power Teleroom, what you have
up for clients on this Monday?
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you have until tomorrow to get on board
this special offer. We're doing thirty days for one hundred
and ninety nine dollars. I think it's a great deal.
We have not had a losing record in any month
this year. Andy, Now, August I alluded to this earlier.
August is off to not to start that I was
hoping for. It was actually just a bad weekend culminating yesterday. Still,
I'm having a kind of a bad mood.
Speaker 8: Andy.
Speaker 5: I may not have shown it. I was trying to
put a smile on my face when I come on
the program, but a little bit of a bad mood
from yesterday. I had the Mets as a four percent play.
They were up five to nothing on the Brewers. Mets
did not win that game. They lost in walk off fashion.
I don't know what voodoo the Brewers have under their caps,
but tipper cap to them. They're doing well. But anyway,
despite the kind of rough weekend here, we have not
had a losing record any month this year, and we're
gonna try to That means great time to get on
board because I've lost a couple of days. I'm just
one in four of the last three days, so great
time to get on board. We bounced back thirty days,
one hundred and nine nine dollars. Not only does that
get you baseball, and it's not just baseball. Get you
the start of college football. The Blitz, by the way,
coming up in well ten days. The Blitz will be
making its debut here on WAG TV Live every Thursday
at one pm, so you can get all my college
football to start the season, all the first week of
NFL regular seasons included. And European soccer starts this week,
and I know you're talking a little bit soccer a
few months ago. La Liga and the EPL get going
this weekend. Very excited about that. Nobody's been more profitable
betting soccer than they going back to April twenty twenty four.
Up sixty one points, sixty units on the pitch.
Speaker 1: Nice, nice, great stuff, Brian, great breakdowns, And yeah, you're right.
We were talking earlier about like I'm on a thirteen
and two run. You're just like terrified. You're like, I
know what's coming, But yeah, you have a couple a
couple of down days, that's the time to get on.
But it's it's counterintuitive to tell people that, but yeah,
I know exactly what you're saying. You'll get you get
it on track, and I'm following your streak about winning months.
Speaker 2: Man, that's amazing. Yeah, that's a hell of a hell
of us.
Speaker 5: It is, it is, It absolutely is. So you know,
we've lower volume around, We've gone to that and it's
worked out, I think for the most part in all sports.
We had that great finish to the NBA season. Right now,
it's just baseball right now, but excited obviously for football
and football as you get back on to the betting board.
Speaker 1: All right, Brian Power and we got the Blitz coming up.
Brian's going to be hosting that show. Get you ready
for all of the top games in college football. Dan
and I are going to break down the bucks. Got
to tell you, guys, five percent UFC play for UFC
three nineteen has already gone up. I already knew what
that play was going to be, coming off of a
sweep including a five percent win. So we're we're on
a four and zero run in UFC. We're seeing it really,
really well, and this five percent play had to go up.
Don't care about the lines, and lines have not moved
hardly at all, So you can that in. I'd get
it in a sap. And here's what I'm gonna do
for the next ten weeks. My five dollars Tuesday play
is gonna be a Daana White Contender Series play. Let's
let let's let's let's see what we could do. Every
every Monday night, I'm gonna put up a five dollars
Danta White Contender series play. It works perfect, Dan, The
play is on Tuesday Night. We follow Contender series as
much as anybody. We do a live daya White Contender
Series show. So for the next ten weeks, my five
dollars Tuesday play is just gonna be the best bet
on Contender series. So get ready for that. Every Monday night,
I will have that up. So all right, Dan, come
on in here, let's talk the bucks. Oh I mean,
my my, I will always remember last year for the
Baker Mayfield over one and a half touchdown passes just
every single week.
Speaker 9: The gift that just kept on giving, and the number
wasn't even bad Like that was truly the rent rent
washing he and it kind of underscores what the really,
you know, latter half of the career of Baker Mayfield
has been is just sneaky solid production through and through
and uh, you know, a great wide receiving corp doesn't
doesn't hurt that and Uh, you know that's what you
have in this team.
Speaker 8: So yeah, with the heading into this.
Speaker 9: Year, I don't know, Andy and I know that we
both probably have some thoughts on this squad, but I
don't know, why don't you set it up and talk
this schedule because the schedule and that's where it starts
getting a little bit tough. Talking about optimism for the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in my opinion.
Speaker 1: My number one team that I think you're gonna get
an incredible line live throughout the throughout the season. This
is why I won't be playing anything on the Bucks
to start the season. Ten and seven. Last year offseason moves.
They lose their offensive coordinator. I'm just gonna throw that
Chris Godwin's probably not one hundred percent to start the season.
They did draft a rookie wide receiver that looks by
all accounts he's gonna be legit. They did get Hassan Reddick,
a little bit of a head case, but they invested
a few years. Hopefully that works out. They got Levonte David.
They took care of their left guard. They signed the
left guard last year to one year and he was great,
so they got him locked up for three years. You know,
we talked about the Steelers and how the PFF ranked them,
you know, great on defense, and this is the complete
opposite PFF. This is fair sixth for running backs, second
for wide receivers, sixth, an offensive line on defense terrible,
twenty seventh, defensive line twenty fifth, linebackers, twenty second secondary.
That's why props on this Tampa Bay team are just great.
It's like the Bengals. They can't stop anybody. They're getting
these shootouts. I mean, it's it's wild, all right. We
mentioned the schedule. Here's how they start at Falcons at Texans, Jets,
Eagles at Seahawks, forty nine Ers at Lions at Saints.
By then here's where I think they can do some damage.
They go Patriots at home, they go at Bills at Rams, Cardinals,
but then they finish. I don't know if it gets
better than this, Saints, Falcons at Carolina at Miami home.
Carolina that has got.
Speaker 8: The Carolina is what gets you there, you know what
I mean?
Speaker 1: I think they like it's not great.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think they split with Atlanta, but at least
you know, you have a Miami team. What are they
gonna look like they're a kind of team who seems
like they always start off strong and then fade offs.
You're getting them historically on on what's going to be
a good spot. But it's not a It's not an
overbearingly easy schedule. I think that the easiest part of
the schedule, Andy, is that you get to play in
the NFC South, and on paper, you should have four
guaranteed wins right there. So now now you're just looking
for five and a half wins on the schedule. I
mean Saints, they've also looked awful in the preseason. Again,
there's no indicator there, but they're looking like they should
be every bit as awful as promised.
Speaker 8: Panthers. Who knows, they're a team who.
Speaker 9: Might be able to keep up with teams in scoring,
especially against the defense like this. However, I like the
answers that Tampa Bay has made defensively. They got better
defensively in the offseason. However, that depth is non existent
on the defensive.
Speaker 8: Side of the ball.
Speaker 9: So you know, injuries are always, you know, the ultimate equalizer.
Last year they were one of the more injured teams
in the league. So does that kind of regress to
the mean you gotta hope so defensively because you really
don't have any depth to speak of at really any
level of the defense. So that's what would worry me
about this team going over. But Andy, just like Baker
Mayfield and his second half of his career, this is
the team that always what was it eight and a
half wins?
Speaker 8: Last year?
Speaker 9: They got ten wins when they were six and a
half wins. The year before they got nine wins. So
this is a team who consistently just over exceeds expectations.
And that was even going two and five. Been one
score games last season, which we know that's something that
typically flip flops from year to year, teams that are
bad in one score games, you know, maybe having a
bounce that doesn't quite go their way. Outside of the
defensive concerns, you know, with the depth there, the other
part that worries me, Andy is outside of Bucky Irving,
you know, really your star players are all aging. Right,
Mike Evans goes over a thousand yards every single year,
which is great, But what's the year when he's finally
not gonna go over a thousand years?
Speaker 8: Could it be a thousand yards? Could it be this year?
Speaker 1: He also goes over his massive hamstring string, total.
Speaker 9: Everything exactly, yet still somehow finds a thousand yards.
Speaker 8: So that's why I was excited when they bring in
Amika Agbuka.
Speaker 9: I think he could make an impact immediately on this team,
especially in the stead of Godwin. You hear me, I'm
I'm I'm excited for this team. I think they're gonna
be a solid team. I think they get to play.
Speaker 8: In a bad division.
Speaker 9: You know that I have Atlanta Falcons potentially winning this Vision,
but I think these two teams are going to push
each other. I think I give it Lanta the edge
simply because their schedule is a bit easier, which is
which is hard to say because the Bays looks even
easy in some stretches here. But our man Sean is
gonna love this. It's an ever slight lean to the over.
Andy depends on what happens in division. I'm going over
the nine and a half wins. But for what it's worth,
I'm with you, man, I wouldn't bet this before the season.
I think that nine number is a spot on one.
I think this nine and a half is really good.
But like you said, you stumble out of the gate
here a little bit. This is a team that you
will be able to bet in season, get a hell
of a lot of a better number, and also have
a read on what their injuries are going to look like.
Speaker 1: Here's what I'm praying for. I'm praying they stumble out
of the gates and then they have this Jets, Eagles
at Seahawks, forty nine Ers at Lions stretch. I want
to see some losses there because then I get them
at Saints and then a bye, oh give me seven
and a half, give me a great seven and a half, eight.
Speaker 4: And a half.
Speaker 9: Well, and JP makes a good point here is it
kind of is the race to nine or ten for
winning this division? Right that that's where it's who gets there.
So you might not need to expend some some stuff
down the stretch if the Falcons fall off a little bit,
because I doubt you're gonna be getting pushed by this
version of the Saints and this version of the Panthers.
Speaker 1: Right agreed, agreed, one hundred percent. I will say, for
the purposes of this segment, lean over.
Speaker 8: But but don't bet.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be It's no way is it a bet.
But man, this is gonna be a great team to
bet props on. This is gonna be a great team
in season on their wing total.
Speaker 9: So and Buca is also a great fantasy late round
pick or or if he's on waivers, just so you
know for your fantasy players out there. I'm very bullish
on him. I think he's gonna fit in very well
with Baker.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, is it funny?
Speaker 8: Funny?
Speaker 1: I think Baker gets out of the Browns organization and flourishes.
It's just like good.
Speaker 9: Just deth, taxes and players being better when they're out
of Cleveland.
Speaker 8: Those are the three guaranteed things in the world.
Speaker 2: Amazing, amazing.
Speaker 1: So all right, guys, that's going to do it for
us again. Five percent UFC Best bet is up at
a five dollars contender. Series play will be up later today.
Please hit the like button subscribe to the channel if
you haven't, We're gonna do it again all over tomorrow.
Appreciate you guys for joining us on this Monday. Good
luck on your bets and take care