Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start the show
by being transparent. Haven't had a show since Friday. Sunday.
My top play was a winner, but I did not
win another game. Besides that, it was pretty bad. Thursday.
I won that Bengals game we talked about. I don't know.
Oh we did come back on Friday. I didn't talk
to you on Friday, I don't think, but no, no, no,
last show is Thursday. So yeah, I won the Bengals.
I talked about that London game under that was my
top player that won, and then the other players that
were not top players lost, Robbin know, so need to
cut out some of those and do a little bit better.
How was everything for you over the weekend?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was.
Speaker 3: A little mixed ski because it wasn't great on Saturday
college football. College football was underwater on Saturday. But then
NFL if I go back to Thursday, like you say,
with that Pittsburgh Cincinnati game where I had total NFL
was seven and o this weekend six and oh yesterday,
so we got it all back from Saturday and then
some which is fantastic, Like I say, the NFL has
been so good to me so far this year. Just
a quick check of the numbers this morning, so that
I was a top of the wager talk candycappers for
NFL this year again, So it's pretty good at this
point where that league is concerned. And overall wound up
being a decent weekend because of yesterday.
Speaker 1: Oh great work six and oh seven and oh, you know,
nothing to is golf out there. You know that's amazing.
Oh I'd go six, and oh I could definitely six.
Speaker 3: And here's here's how we got to six and oh
ski I had the Broncos team total.
Speaker 2: Over oh boy zero after three quarters thirty three.
Speaker 3: I as much as we hate when those things go
against us, you love to take them when they happened
for you.
Speaker 2: So you know we're thankful for that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a crazy, crazy, crazy game for sure. Yeah,
we have a couple more games to talk about here
today in the NFL and then not gonna talk too
much baseball. I'm not gonna talk baseball at all. It
is Game seven Seattle in Toronto. I don't have a
strong opinion anyway. I would just say I think Seattle
say a lot of their good pictures for today. So
either under Seattle be my recommendation. But again, I haven't
been deep diving or doing anything. I've just been watching
the games. Anything from you on that before we talk football.
Speaker 3: No, not really Ski, particularly in that series, I wasn't involved.
I was far more involved in the Dodgers series, which
ended in four gave us a little bit of a
plus sign there, But this particular series I haven't had
good strong feelings about. So I'm kind of with you though,
I think either because it is one of those where
all hands on deck are concerned with the pitching staff,
that Seattle might have a decent edge laden in shit
with arms.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to Monday night football. We have
two games tonight. First up, we're gonna look at four
seventy five, four seventy six Tampa Bay and Detroit opened
up minus four and a half for the Lions. Looks
like six. Looks like mostly six. There's six and a
half out there too. Total open fifty two and a half.
Looks like fifty three or fifty three and a half.
Lions are coming off of that lost to Kansas City.
The Lions going back to twenty twenty three, ralbh. You
know they are eight and those straight up and against
the spread off of a loss. I want to say
they're also pretty good to the over too. I'm curious,
do you see a big bounce back for the Lions
here in this one or I don't know, I know
you you will get excited maybe for a total in
this game.
Speaker 3: We'll go to side first. I think a couple of
things here.
Speaker 2: For Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: It's four pretty tough games in a row, now, ski,
I mean, they've had to play Philly, Seattle and San Francisco,
three really good teams, and now Detroit. They've answered the
bell for the most part in.
Speaker 2: All these games. Baker Mayfield has been tremendous.
Speaker 3: And for Detroit, I would expect a bounce back, especially
offensively after that Kansas City game.
Speaker 2: You know, for the Lions to only put up.
Speaker 3: Seventeen is a little bit, you know, it's far less
than what they expect to put up, and they had
some issues in that game where they could have scored
points and left them on the table. So I would
think at home, the numbers that you just quoted, if so,
really strong home team here, as I mentioned for Tampa
on the road again, so sidewise, I can understand people
liking Detroit, but I don't know that I could like
them at this price. It just keeps climbing and climbing
and climbing, and it just gets It's tough to fade
the Bucks and Baker Mayfield at that price, just knowing
that he never gives up.
Speaker 2: And the back door could always be wide open in
this game.
Speaker 3: And even if Detroit's up by thirteen, now if they
Buck score a late touchdown, you don't cover anymore. So
perhaps the people who got there early were the smartest
the people that are going to come on the tail end.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'd be afraid to, let's put it
that way.
Speaker 3: I'd be afraid to play the Lions as a favorite
at this particular price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could use a coke sponsor. I would. I
would absolutely take that. They like my glass coat. Yeah, man,
I keep them stocked up over there in the fridge.
But wen No, I don't know, man, this Detroit. I mean,
I agree with the last thing. And you said, you
know you could absolutely see a back door here. We
know we've seen Bakers come back efforts time and time again,
like they're not going to give up even if they're down.
So I don't know. I don't like the idea of
laying points against this Buccaneers team. I especially don't like
the idea of laying points against them when your entire
secondary is hurt then Branch is suspended. I mean, I
keep the same theory kind of throughout sports, right if
I if you don't have a secondary, I'm not trusting
you to get stops, but I can't trust you to
get stops. I'm not laying six. So this is as
simple as that for me. I would be looking towards
the Buccaneers in this one. The buck secondary is not great,
but I don't know they're the ones getting the six
points here, Rob, you know any thoughts on that?
Speaker 3: Well, you lead me right into where I did play
this game, which was the total. It's fifty three now,
could have got fifty two and a half earlier, but
it makes so much sense. Ski a couple of things here.
The Detroit secondary, as you mentioned, I mean three starters
out tonight now that we count Branch's suspension, and when
you count them up, de Troit has six defensive backs
unavailable for tonight's gaming. They're gonna if they go into
a dime they might not be able to go into
a dime defense without because they wouldn't have enough defensive
backs and the ones that they do have available. When
you go check out their careers, you're gonna find this
is as young and has inexperienced the group. You're gonna
have three four guys running around out there who really
haven't played and against Baker Mayfield and that passing attack
which tonight, as we found out this morning, probably does
include Mike Evans, probably does include a Mecca Igbuka. Now,
all of a sudden, Baker's got a couple of weapons
back in this lineup to throw against a depleted secondary.
Speaker 2: So for Detroit, the.
Speaker 3: Answer may be we have to score to keep up,
and I think that's very possible. Couple of things. Detroit
loves to run, right. We know that they're kind of
a tough, physical, run first type team. They're balanced, but
they want to run it first. Tipa Bay is one
of the best run defenses in the league, so that
matchup kind of neutralizes each other. And if Jared Goff
is forced to throw the football, or if Detroit chooses
the blueprint, let's throw the football back Tampa Bay up
a little bit. They're gonna have a ton of openings
first off, just historically, and I don't put a lot
of this into my handicap ski but it is true
that Jared Goff has had some monster days against the
Tampa Bay secondary, so it's not like he couldn't have
another one. And where Tampa Bay is concerned, the last
two weeks, that pass defense gave up three hundred and
forty one and two hundred and ninety six, almost three
hundred more to San Francisco and Seattle. Detroit's got enough
in their past game Arsenal to do the same here.
Last year it was twenty to sixteen, I think was
the final, but Detroit was one for seven scoring touchdowns
in the red zone. It's no way they would be
one for seven again tonight. I'd expect more production from there.
It looks to me like a shootout, to be honest
with you, and forth they go. Tampa Bay gets involved
in a lot of these, They're comfortable in them. Detroit
gets involved in a lot of these. They're comfortable in them.
So I would still play it. At fifty three. I
did bet at myself, so I think this game probably
heads to the mid fifties or higher.
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement. I could only see it being high scoring.
I mean, the only way it doesn't is if the
Lions just refused to throw and just want to just
run against that good run DEFENSI all game long, which
I mean if you have a brain, which I assume
Dan Amibill does. I think they should pass the ball,
so I like that play on over Mark says he
likes Baker over two hundred and forty two passing yards.
I could absolutely see that. Other props. I don't really
I don't feel too strong about props. I think Mike
Evans probably scores. I think, yeah, I don't want to
get too much into props. I could see two tough
passing touchdowns from Baker, though lionside who to choose there?
I don't know so many weapons over there too. I
think we'll get points. I guess if I like all
these touchdowns, right, Robno, I guess I like what you like.
Otto says, backup right, tackle for the Bucks. Last time
the Lions played them, Hutchinson had four sacks, so I
might be able to pick on somebody over there. We
shall see our next game up, Robno. We I'm with you.
I'm with you, Mark, I see you in the chat.
Next game up at Seahawks. Open minus two and a
half for Seattle looks like three right now. I feel
like it went up to three and a half and
then maybe came back down. Total open forty two, and
it looks like forty one now. This Houston team, I mean,
for one, the Seahawks have looked to me better than
I expected. You know, I was one of the people
who said Darno might not look as good behind the
Seattle offensive line. He look solid. Seahawks have looked good.
This Texans team, they started off the season really really shaky,
really bad. I'm thinking, what the hell is going? What's
wrong over there? They picked it up. They had a
bye week this past week, but the two weeks prior
they scored seventy points. The defense has allowed the least
points in the league. So and the Texans I believe,
are two and three somewhere around there. They need. They
need some wins to get back on track in the standings.
The better defense, the better quarterback. To me, I know
he hasn't always played like it this year, and getting points.
I would be interested in that Texan side. Ravino. I'm
curious if you see it that way or how are
you looking at this game?
Speaker 3: This one's tough ski right on the field goal, because
it almost looks exactly like a field goal game for
the Texans. I mean, the constant you mentioned it. The
constant is their defense and their pass pressure. They're gonna
get after you, Dimico. Ryans is a defensive mind by nature,
and they've been really good and they've got the personnel
to be really really good on that side of the football.
The question you have to have with Houston is when
they lost their first two games of the year, they
were two really really good teams overall, the Rams and
Tampa Bay, and both good defensive lines on those teams.
Rams not as good against the run as Tampa, but
you get my point two good defense as Houston lost
to both. Then they played Tennessee and Baltimore, who we
know don't play any defense, and that's when they got
their wins and look pretty good offensively. So Seattle kind
of wanders or points more towards the direction of Rams
Tampa Bay as far as defense is concerned. However, that
being said, Seattle's issues the last couple of weeks defensively
have been the same as what we just talked about
with Detroit.
Speaker 2: Their secondary injuries.
Speaker 3: Have been worse than they're going to be tonight because
they may only be missing two guys. Maybe they miss
Witherspoon and Love, but Witherspoon and Love are arguably the
two best defensive backs that they have.
Speaker 2: They could play.
Speaker 3: I still see them listed as questionable and Seattle doesn't
have to tell us until ninety minutes before kickoff. But
if they don't go, or if they both have hamstring issues,
if they're slowed somewhat, maybe CJ. Stroud can't find some
receivers here. They did have the off week, like you say,
to two week game prepare for this one, which is
a help. So I could see them defensively causing Seattle trouble.
I could see Seattle defensively causing them some trouble.
Speaker 2: Their front seven has been really good.
Speaker 3: I think Seattle sits in the top in the top
six both offensively and defensively overall rankings. I believe, so
they've been really good on both sides. But it's the
d backs that I worry about. Witherspoon and Love here,
I don't know. It just seems like a three point
game to me either way, where turnovers could affect it.
The only time we saw Sam Darnold really look miserable
in the last two years was that Detroit game last
year in the playoffs where they just constantly brought pressure.
And I wonder if Demiko Ryans does the same thing
tonight with Will Anderson and these guys just go after
this guy and maybe we can force him into a
couple of turnovers.
Speaker 2: Stroud's offensive line is terrible.
Speaker 3: It's another thing to consider here because they can't protect
him for anything, so it's difficult.
Speaker 2: You can make cases both ways.
Speaker 3: The total coming down to forty one probably made a
little sense, but as somebody who plays a lot of totals,
I'm not willing to just disregard a twenty three to
twenty final and you lose the under So I think
that this game becomes really tough for I haven't bet
it yet.
Speaker 2: You can probably understand why.
Speaker 1: I wonder if the offensive line is not good just
because they're not good, was it because the guys were
banged up? Because if it's because they're banged up, coming
off of BI week would absolutely help that, right. That's
just my thought, and then I like what you said
about blitzing blitzing, I'm forgetting his name quarterback for the
see off. Yeah, Sam Darnold like when he's under pressure,
he definitely that's been his his weak point throughout his career.
He'll make some mistakes, So I'm in agreement there. You
mentioned that Seattle defense. Here's my thing. They've been good
against the run, but you mentioned those that secondary can
be picked on a little bit, and it's just stood
out to me. I haven't really paid any any NFL
props this year, but I did have some success with
them last year, and I'm just thinking, if the Texans
are gonna have success offensively versus Seahawks team, it's more
likely to be through the air. Right, Texans don't even
really have a run game, and they're going up against
the bad I mean, a good run defense, So that's
gonna be a lot of CJ through the air. He
doesn't really pass that much. He's had more than thirty
pass attempts once so far this season. His PROP is
at thirty two and a half, and I just feel
like that's for a reason. When I look at the
Seattle side, every single quarterback is at more than thirty
three attempts. Why because that's where they're weak at. So
it makes sense to me to take CJ over thirty
two and a half attempts first time, or not the
first time, it will be the second time he gets
thirty three plus this season. Any thoughts on that problem.
Speaker 3: I could see how successful those attempts would be depend
on whether the offensive line. And let me go back
to that, because you asked the question beginning is because
they were banged up on the offensive line? Is because
they're just no good Heading into the season, there's a
couple of internet outlets that raided them as the worst
offensive line in the NFL.
Speaker 2: They traded Laramie to Dolphins.
Speaker 3: Well, this is preseason coming in, okay, right, So even
at healthy they thought they were bad. I don't think
that they've had many injuries. CJ's been running around for
his life and Seattle with Mike McDonald. Remember he was
the ex Ravens defensive coordinator. He could do the same
thing Houston does, blitz CJ and see what happens. But
I don't disagree with you that they'll have to put
the ball up in the air a lot because you
don't care if they're incomplete or completes. When you're playing
that problem, just throw the ball for me, and I
wouldn't throw it.
Speaker 2: I could totally.
Speaker 3: I can totally see that happening, possibly on both sides,
because Houston's not gonna let them run much either.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't think.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff on that. It's short and sweet today, Robi.
You know, we get out of here in less than
twenty minutes, and it won't probably won't be like that
for a while because the NBA starts tomorrow, so we'll
take advantage of it and enjoy the extra free time
to go do something else. We'll move it over the
Best Bets and actually take that off. Let's put this
up there before we do best bets because the NBA
does start tomorrow. Both Rovin and myself have this up
on our page. It's an NBA opening, We expect special
pretty much comes out to ten dollars a day. You'll
get every play that we make, and yeah, just get
a chance to see how we're rocking to start the
NBA season. So Vino, I'll pass it to you. I'll
ask you if there's anything else you would like to promote,
and if you have a best bet for the show.
We love to hear it. If you don't all good, yeah,
real quick.
Speaker 3: I do have a couple of NBA futures posted on
my page at wager talk skis.
Speaker 2: If you guys are interested.
Speaker 3: In a couple of future bets for the NBA, go
ahead and visit. I've got a couple up right now,
let's go the best bets and I'll just go back
to the first game. It's what I feel strongest about.
It is what I bet. I think Tampa Bay and
Detroit the matchup advantages on the field, just screen points.
Speaker 2: We've seen how quickly Baker.
Speaker 3: We've seen Baker Mayfield score points without any of his
three wide receivers. I mean last game or the game before.
I think it was either one of those, when he
didn't have Evans, when he didn't have God, when Agbuca
got hurt in the middle of the game, and still Sterling,
Shepherd and company step up. I think we saw Tedz Johnson,
the rookie, catch a touchdown pass last week. It just
doesn't matter who's on the field for him, so giving
him a couple of his prime pieces back on the
outside really should help them against the Detroit Secondary. And
I do think Detroit's going to have to score to
keep up. I think they can score to keep up.
So give me over fifty three in the Buccaneers Lions game.
Speaker 2: Best bet.
Speaker 1: Good stuff for rob know and for myself. Man, I
gotta figurell what's up with this? Why is it not
going full screen anymore? Something has changed with these controls.
Speaker 2: But my.
Speaker 1: Best bet, you know, I'm gonna go with that prop.
I like that CJ over thirty two and a half.
I think it's that number for a reason. If it's
only clear thirty once has to be thirty two and
a half for a reason. And I laid it out
because that Seattle secondary is weak, so if they want
to win, they'll take advantage. I like, like robn No said,
we don't have to worry if they're completed or not
to get them up there. Over thirty two and a
half for CJ. Straw will be my best bet. And
this back up here you've already I mean, I've made
one play in the NBA. You won't see it if
you just try to go, you know, to wager Talk
page and get it. It's not a package. But I
have a couple of things I'm eyeing. Have you already
started to get involved in NBA Raveno.
Speaker 3: You know I will this afternoon ski the two games
slate tomorrow I'll give a look at, and then the
Wednesday slate I'll see if I can get something for
tonight up there. For tomorrow, we just five dollars Tuesday
for them was watching, so we'll try to get this
stuff up. And there's college football tomorrow as well, so it'll.
Speaker 2: Be a busy work afternoon.
Speaker 3: But check us out because, like I say, tomorrow's fight
dollar Tuesday. We'll try and get something up there for
your NBA related.
Speaker 1: No, we're time to sleep, Rob. You know, we got
games Guns game two more weeks. We've got some more
kids we're gonna have to handicap and talk about. So
I can't wait for that though, if you know, you know,
I'm getting involved as the first game. But it's good
to talk these games out with.
Speaker 2: You, Rob.
Speaker 1: You know you definitely help out my process. Appreciate everybody
in the chat, great capers, great people, and we all
are doing the same thing, just trying to help each
other win, so I definitely can appreciate that. Best of
luck on all your action today. We'll be back again
tomorrow talking NBA and we'll see what else we got.
But a lot of are a couple of games in
the NBA, so we'll catch you guys in