WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.240 Well, it just goes from bad to worse for the 2 00:00:02.600 --> 00:00:09.400 high speed rail project. On Wednesday, they had a budgetary 3 00:00:09.519 --> 00:00:14.320 hearing about it at the State Assembly. Here's the story 4 00:00:14.320 --> 00:00:16.519 about it from Ashley Zavala. Ashley Zavalla, by the way, 5 00:00:16.559 --> 00:00:19.359 who you should all look up on Twitter. Ashley Zavalla. 6 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:22.280 She's a reporter for She's just a local news reporter 7 00:00:22.320 --> 00:00:26.280 in Sacramento, and she's like the only reporter who breaks 8 00:00:26.320 --> 00:00:29.960 any news about anything happening within state government. It's actually remarkable. 9 00:00:30.920 --> 00:00:34.000 She's far and away the best person to follow about 10 00:00:34.560 --> 00:00:39.880 news in Sacramento. And I think she's kind of putting 11 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:44.000 every every reporter for every other news outlet that's based 12 00:00:44.039 --> 00:00:50.000 in California to shame. Anyway, she writes, California's embattled high 13 00:00:50.000 --> 00:00:53.039 speed rail project will soon need at least seven billion 14 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:55.920 dollars in order to move forward. During a budget hearing 15 00:00:56.000 --> 00:00:59.920 focused on transportation in the State Assembly on Wednesday, Helen 16 00:01:00.159 --> 00:01:04.799 Kirstein with the California Legislative Analysts Office told lawmakers the 17 00:01:04.799 --> 00:01:07.439 project faces a seven bohbo bo bo bo bo bo 18 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:11.799 bo billion dollar budget gap and the funds need to 19 00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:16.560 be secured by next June. So June end of fiscal 20 00:01:16.640 --> 00:01:20.840 year twenty five twenty six. If not, Kirstine said, it 21 00:01:20.879 --> 00:01:24.200 will create yet another delay for plans to finish the 22 00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:30.599 project's first segment between Merced and Bakersfield. There is no 23 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:34.439 specific plan to meet that roughly seven billion dollar gap. 24 00:01:35.079 --> 00:01:37.799 We also think there is some risk that gap could grow. 25 00:01:37.959 --> 00:01:41.120 I'm gonna interpret that as it's AB's a freaking loutly 26 00:01:41.159 --> 00:01:44.200 going to be more than seven billion dollars. Kirstine said. 27 00:01:44.560 --> 00:01:48.159 This isn't a way out in the future funding gap. 28 00:01:48.560 --> 00:01:52.319 This is a pretty immediate This isn't a way out 29 00:01:52.359 --> 00:01:55.439 in the future funding gap. This is a pretty immediate 30 00:01:55.480 --> 00:02:01.239 funding gap. Wednesday's hearing on the project was brief. Well, 31 00:02:01.519 --> 00:02:03.200 you wouldn't want to spend a lot of time on it. 32 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:06.159 This is one of the great things about the California legislature. 33 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:11.120 Like they introduce a bill in committee, usually one side 34 00:02:11.159 --> 00:02:14.400 only gets two minutes to discuss it, and the side 35 00:02:14.400 --> 00:02:15.840 that they want to v for gets as much time 36 00:02:15.840 --> 00:02:19.240 as they want. Anyway, Wednesday's hearing on the project was brief, 37 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:22.639 as the High Speed Rail Authority submitted an incomplete project 38 00:02:22.680 --> 00:02:28.560 update to lawmakers in time for the hearing. Good the 39 00:02:28.639 --> 00:02:30.479 High Speed Rail Authority that they can't even get a 40 00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:36.919 full update in time for hearings. Officials said the update 41 00:02:36.919 --> 00:02:42.840 would be ready sometime later this summer, which irked lawmakers. 42 00:02:44.199 --> 00:02:47.199 We have no plan, we have a good likelihood it's 43 00:02:47.240 --> 00:02:49.800 going to get worse, and we have a short time 44 00:02:49.840 --> 00:02:52.919 to solve the problem, set Assemblyman Stephen Bennett, a Democrat 45 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:56.199 from Ventura. That's not a good place for government to 46 00:02:56.240 --> 00:03:01.240 put itself into. The project was originally pitched to voters 47 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:03.599 in two thousand and eight. Ah, let's let's go back 48 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:07.400 to two thousand and eight, the two thousand and eight November. 49 00:03:07.000 --> 00:03:08.400 Elections in California. 50 00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:12.400 What a What a wild election that was the same 51 00:03:12.439 --> 00:03:16.479 election where we overwhelmingly elected Barack Obama, we passed Proposition 52 00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:19.360 eight to define marriages between one man and one woman, 53 00:03:19.479 --> 00:03:23.919 and we decided to build the bullet train. What a 54 00:03:23.960 --> 00:03:28.520 wild election that was anyway. The project was originally pitched 55 00:03:28.520 --> 00:03:30.400 to voters in two thousand and eight as a forty 56 00:03:30.439 --> 00:03:32.919 billion dollar bullet train that would take riders from Los 57 00:03:32.960 --> 00:03:35.400 Angeles to San Francisco. Since then, the price tag for 58 00:03:35.479 --> 00:03:38.599 the original vision has swelled to at least one hundred billion, 59 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:41.639 and most of the money has yet to materialize. While 60 00:03:41.639 --> 00:03:44.240 the state has spent about fourteen billion on the project 61 00:03:44.319 --> 00:03:48.680 so far overall, it still needs more than double that 62 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:52.319 amount in order to finish the merce said to Bakersfield Line, 63 00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:56.680 which project leaders hoped to be completed between twenty thirty 64 00:03:56.719 --> 00:04:02.800 and twenty thirty three, Well, that's an awfully big window. 65 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:08.599 Twenty thirty to twenty thirty that's like a four different 66 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:12.639 years in which that could be completed. The Trump administration 67 00:04:12.719 --> 00:04:15.319 earlier this year launched an investigation into the use of 68 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:19.120 about four billion dollars in federal funds, which is still underway. 69 00:04:19.199 --> 00:04:25.439 Lawmakers acknowledged the administration could halt future money or try 70 00:04:25.439 --> 00:04:28.639 to claw back the dollars. Kirstine told lawmakers the rail 71 00:04:28.680 --> 00:04:33.480 authorities incomplete update assumes it will still receive and keep 72 00:04:33.519 --> 00:04:37.519 federal dollars. Okay, so we're we're facing a seven billion 73 00:04:37.639 --> 00:04:42.680 dollar shortfall. 74 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:42.639 And that's assuming that we can keep. 75 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:46.439 All the federal money which the Trump administration is actively 76 00:04:46.600 --> 00:04:53.639 trying to claw back. Mike Tolifson, the chief of staff 77 00:04:53.639 --> 00:04:56.360 for the High Speed Rail Authority, told lawmakers the project's 78 00:04:56.360 --> 00:05:01.040 new CEO is working to review the project. Overall, we 79 00:05:01.079 --> 00:05:04.519 are diligently working to get that information respect to scope 80 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:09.839 schedule ridership, Toulson told the panel, You've been working on 81 00:05:09.879 --> 00:05:12.959 this for forever. How is that not all one hundred 82 00:05:12.959 --> 00:05:21.959 percent laid out in detail already? Kirstin recommended that lawmakers 83 00:05:22.120 --> 00:05:23.399 try to figure this out. 84 00:05:24.879 --> 00:05:26.879 Well, maybe maybe you should figure it out. 85 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:31.160 Kirstine recommended that lawmakers try to figure this out as 86 00:05:31.160 --> 00:05:33.319 they work to determine the state spending plan for the 87 00:05:33.360 --> 00:05:37.279 next fiscal year, which starts in July. The timing of 88 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:41.680 the project review seems totally out of whack with when 89 00:05:41.720 --> 00:05:45.360 we need to be making decisions, said Assembly Member Kaddy 90 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:48.560 Petrick Norris, a Democrat from Irvine. 91 00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:49.879 That this is this is key. 92 00:05:50.160 --> 00:05:53.720 The timing of the project review seems totally out of 93 00:05:53.759 --> 00:05:56.879 whack with when we need to be making decisions. The 94 00:05:56.920 --> 00:05:59.120 definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and 95 00:05:59.120 --> 00:06:01.720 over again, ex backing a different outcome. So I think 96 00:06:01.759 --> 00:06:04.319 the point she's trying to make is, you know, the 97 00:06:04.399 --> 00:06:10.040 governor starts working on next year's budget in I don't know, 98 00:06:10.079 --> 00:06:15.759 like December January. We're in March. We're now learning about 99 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:23.120 this seven billion dollar shortfall, and if we don't get 100 00:06:23.160 --> 00:06:26.680 that money by June of next year, the high speed 101 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:28.959 rail will be delayed until. I mean now the window 102 00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:31.000 is twenty thirty to twenty thirty three, what'll it be, 103 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:36.000 I don't know what it'll be like, twenty thirty two 104 00:06:36.199 --> 00:06:44.279 to twenty thirty six, I don't know. Meanwhile, State Senate 105 00:06:44.319 --> 00:06:51.600 Transportation Committee Chairman David Cortes Cortesi told KCRA three he 106 00:06:51.720 --> 00:06:53.439 is hoping to schedule a hearing on the high speed 107 00:06:53.519 --> 00:06:57.759 rail project in May. Wednesday's hearing happened hours after Governor 108 00:06:57.759 --> 00:07:00.439 gavenue From released the latest episode of his pot cast 109 00:07:01.839 --> 00:07:05.160 featuring political commentator and author Ezra Kleine, in which the 110 00:07:05.160 --> 00:07:09.319 governor defended the project. We did the railhead. We're starting 111 00:07:09.319 --> 00:07:11.800 to lay track. This thing is starting to get very 112 00:07:11.959 --> 00:07:16.360 very real, the governor said. The episode focused on how 113 00:07:16.600 --> 00:07:19.160 now that's actually interesting. I maybe I need to go 114 00:07:19.240 --> 00:07:22.120 listen to Gavin Newsom. 115 00:07:22.279 --> 00:07:24.240 Gosh, it would really suck. As part of my job. 116 00:07:24.319 --> 00:07:26.920 I need to actually listen to a Gavin Newsom podcast 117 00:07:26.959 --> 00:07:30.319 every week. Ezra Kline is a columnist for The New 118 00:07:30.439 --> 00:07:35.319 York Times, and he's been highly critical of democratic leaders 119 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:38.560 basically being unable to accomplish big goals in the high 120 00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:43.199 speed rail was one of the chief objects of his approbrium, 121 00:07:43.600 --> 00:07:45.920 So it seems that Newsom is trying to have him 122 00:07:45.920 --> 00:07:47.439 on to say, oh, no, it's not that bad. 123 00:07:48.040 --> 00:07:48.920 I think this is. 124 00:07:48.920 --> 00:07:53.079 Newsom trying to lay the groundwork for his twenty twenty 125 00:07:53.079 --> 00:07:55.120 eight presidential campaign and so oh no, no, no, high 126 00:07:55.120 --> 00:08:00.560 speed reel isn't total failure. The episode focused on how 127 00:08:00.600 --> 00:08:04.120 Democratic leaders have struggled to build and finish major projects 128 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:06.839 in recent decades, which has frustrated the party's supporters and 129 00:08:06.920 --> 00:08:10.480 voters overall. Newsome acknowledged the challenges with the California's high 130 00:08:10.480 --> 00:08:12.639 speed rail project, but claimed, now the hard work is 131 00:08:12.639 --> 00:08:15.439 behind us and now we're laying track. Well, clearly the 132 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:17.560 hard work is not behind you, because you've got a 133 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:21.920 seven billion dollars short fall. When Klein pressed him about 134 00:08:21.920 --> 00:08:24.279 the money shortfalls to complete the project overall and then 135 00:08:24.319 --> 00:08:26.759 are said to Bakersfield line, Newsom replied, at the end 136 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:28.800 of the day, we've got these constraints that are well 137 00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:34.440 established in existing constraints. That's not an answer. At the 138 00:08:34.519 --> 00:08:36.360 end of the day, we've got these constraints. Yeah, the 139 00:08:36.399 --> 00:08:41.960 constraint that you don't have enough money. There's not a 140 00:08:42.039 --> 00:08:45.480 high speed rail system that doesn't have some popularity and success. 141 00:08:45.639 --> 00:08:48.960 Most are wildly popular. It's an experience no one has 142 00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:51.919 had in the United States of America. At least we're 143 00:08:51.960 --> 00:08:57.120 out here. We're out there daring, he said. I was 144 00:08:57.120 --> 00:09:00.440 in middle school when this happens, said Assembly Member Alexandra Mesido, 145 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:02.960 a Republican from Tularry who was elected to the state 146 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:04.080 Assembly in the last election. 147 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:07.320 We don't have the time, we don't have the money. 148 00:09:07.399 --> 00:09:09.480 We just need to pull the plug on this project, 149 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:11.720 she said, as the voters passed it in two thousand 150 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:12.000 and eight. 151 00:09:12.039 --> 00:09:16.440 It's never going to happen. Hard to argue with that. 152 00:09:21.840 --> 00:09:28.960 I mean, I am really struggling with how Democrats can't 153 00:09:29.000 --> 00:09:33.399 come to that analysis. The sunk cost fallacy, all right, 154 00:09:34.039 --> 00:09:40.559 The sunk cost fallacy is basically, I've got a failing project, 155 00:09:41.559 --> 00:09:47.240 but I've invested so much into it that I can't 156 00:09:47.279 --> 00:09:53.399 just give up on it. That is feeding into the 157 00:09:53.440 --> 00:09:58.279 sunk cost fallacy. No, at a certain point, you need 158 00:09:58.320 --> 00:10:02.759 to just accept the loss, cut your losses and move on. 159 00:10:03.120 --> 00:10:06.600 Will actually be a better outcome than continuing to stick 160 00:10:06.639 --> 00:10:16.320 with something that's doomed. And Gavin Newsom is desperate. That's 161 00:10:16.360 --> 00:10:19.320 the other thing is that we have people with lots. 162 00:10:18.960 --> 00:10:22.679 Of different motivations. So let's think about this. 163 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:31.399 Nobody currently in the state legislature was in the state 164 00:10:31.480 --> 00:10:35.320 legislature in two thousand and eight. Okay, California has term limits, 165 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:40.440 twelve year term limits, So nobody who's currently in the 166 00:10:40.480 --> 00:10:44.840 state legislature was in the state legislature in two thousand 167 00:10:44.879 --> 00:10:46.559 and eight when the high speed rail was passed. 168 00:10:46.639 --> 00:10:46.919 Okay. 169 00:10:47.120 --> 00:10:50.360 There are very few people left in the state legislature 170 00:10:50.639 --> 00:10:55.960 who feel some kind of political need to keep defending 171 00:10:55.960 --> 00:11:00.159 the high speed rail. Now, Newsom was around in two 172 00:11:00.159 --> 00:11:05.120 thousand and eight. He was supportive of it then and 173 00:11:05.480 --> 00:11:09.960 critically Newsom made this big decision after he was elected 174 00:11:10.000 --> 00:11:13.720 governor in twenty nineteen. A lot of people thought that 175 00:11:13.759 --> 00:11:16.399 Newsom would cut bait on the high. 176 00:11:16.200 --> 00:11:17.120 Speed rail project. 177 00:11:17.799 --> 00:11:19.919 There's a lot of reporting that he was less enthused 178 00:11:19.919 --> 00:11:25.519 about it than Jerry Brown was, and it seems of 179 00:11:25.559 --> 00:11:28.360 what happened was he got convinced of this idea well, 180 00:11:28.399 --> 00:11:32.360 merced to Bakersfield, merceaid to Bakersfield, and Newsom's entire governorship, 181 00:11:32.559 --> 00:11:35.320 all we've heard about is we're cutting our loss, We're 182 00:11:35.320 --> 00:11:37.759 going to focus on let's just get merced to Bakersfield done, 183 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:41.200 and once me said to Bakersfield is done, it will 184 00:11:41.240 --> 00:11:45.080 demonstrate the viability of the system as a whole, which 185 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:50.080 was always an argument that it just didn't make any 186 00:11:50.399 --> 00:11:55.639 flippant sense. Merceaid to Bakersfield was never going to be. 187 00:11:56.879 --> 00:12:02.320 That's not representative of the system as a whole. Okay, 188 00:12:02.519 --> 00:12:09.840 it's building it across the least populous and flattest stretch 189 00:12:10.039 --> 00:12:16.519 of California, with the least amount of problems with eminent 190 00:12:16.600 --> 00:12:22.279 domain seizures, the fewest engineering challenges as far as navigating 191 00:12:22.279 --> 00:12:26.600 the terrain. Okay, you don't have to blast through mountains, 192 00:12:26.679 --> 00:12:30.720 which apparently we I don't know that we even today, 193 00:12:31.240 --> 00:12:34.279 I don't know that there's a great strategy for how 194 00:12:34.279 --> 00:12:41.960 we get this high speed rail across the Grapevine. And 195 00:12:42.000 --> 00:12:46.039 it's also I also have always thought that there's no 196 00:12:46.120 --> 00:12:48.279 way this is going to demonstrate the viability of the 197 00:12:48.360 --> 00:12:51.279 high speed rail just based on ridership, because who in 198 00:12:51.320 --> 00:12:53.840 the San Joaquin Valley, the San Wauquin Valley, which is 199 00:12:53.879 --> 00:12:57.080 the most negative region in the in the state with 200 00:12:57.159 --> 00:12:59.559 regards to its opinions on the high speed rail. Who 201 00:12:59.600 --> 00:13:01.559 in the San Joachin Valley is gonna ride this thing. 202 00:13:04.519 --> 00:13:09.399 There's no trip all right. Merced to Bakersfield itself is 203 00:13:09.639 --> 00:13:12.480 roughly a I don't know, a three hour car drive, 204 00:13:15.320 --> 00:13:17.080 and there's not a lot of direct mer said to 205 00:13:17.159 --> 00:13:18.360 Bakersfield traffic. 206 00:13:18.360 --> 00:13:19.840 I mean, mostly it's okay. 207 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:21.519 If you live in Fresno and you want to go 208 00:13:21.519 --> 00:13:24.840 to Bakersfield, what are you gonna do? Well, you can 209 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.919 either get to a train station forty minutes early, get 210 00:13:28.919 --> 00:13:31.919 on the train, take the train to Bakersfield, takes about 211 00:13:31.919 --> 00:13:35.919 an hour. You get off in Bakersfield, and then what. 212 00:13:35.879 --> 00:13:38.279 Are you gonna do? You're gonna take an uber or something. 213 00:13:39.679 --> 00:13:48.399 You haven't really saved any time, so, I mean, and 214 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:49.200 then when you're. 215 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:51.600 In Bakersfield, you don't have the flexibility of your own car. 216 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:56.919 I just don't think anyone is gonna actually ride this 217 00:13:57.000 --> 00:14:01.879 thing from Merced to Bakersfield. I just don't see how 218 00:14:01.919 --> 00:14:04.480 this is going to happen unless you have I don't know, 219 00:14:04.519 --> 00:14:08.559 you work in downtown Fresno and you're going to someplace 220 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:10.519 that happens to be right next to the train station 221 00:14:10.559 --> 00:14:17.200 in Bakersfield or Maderra, Merced or whatever. But to me, 222 00:14:17.639 --> 00:14:20.480 it just seems like there's no way anybody's going to 223 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:22.600 ride this thing or its ridership is going to be 224 00:14:22.639 --> 00:14:25.080 really small. How is this going to demonstrate the viability 225 00:14:25.080 --> 00:14:33.759 of anything. Newsom sort of decided in twenty nineteen this 226 00:14:33.960 --> 00:14:39.200 was what he was going to do, and he needs 227 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:43.200 this to work. He can't abandon it like a sunk 228 00:14:43.240 --> 00:14:45.440 cost because it's about his presidency. When we return, I 229 00:14:45.480 --> 00:14:47.919 want to talk about how important the high speed rail 230 00:14:48.039 --> 00:14:49.559 is for his presidential ambitions. 231 00:14:49.600 --> 00:14:51.480 That's next on the John Growardy Show. 232 00:14:53.480 --> 00:14:57.000 Gavin Newsom needs the high speed rail project to work 233 00:14:57.159 --> 00:14:59.639 because he needs to run for president. 234 00:15:00.919 --> 00:15:04.320 He needs it. It's an essential cog in his desire 235 00:15:04.360 --> 00:15:05.200 to run for president. 236 00:15:07.399 --> 00:15:13.720 If at least merced De Bakersfield isn't completed or well 237 00:15:13.759 --> 00:15:18.360 on the road to completion, this is what the debate 238 00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:23.679 stage is gonna look like for the presidential election. You 239 00:15:23.759 --> 00:15:27.039 want to talk about infrastructure, This guy can't even get 240 00:15:27.080 --> 00:15:29.720 his high speed rail project done. He's been working on 241 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:32.039 it in California. He worked on it in California for 242 00:15:32.039 --> 00:15:34.960 eight years. When he started. There wasn't a single inch 243 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:37.159 of operable track. When he left office, there wasn't a 244 00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:41.399 single inch of operable track. They had to and Newsome 245 00:15:41.960 --> 00:15:45.639 is so vulnerable about the high speed rail, He's gonna 246 00:15:45.679 --> 00:15:50.120 get roasted on a debate stage when that subject is 247 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:52.759 brought up, whether that's in the primary debates against other 248 00:15:52.759 --> 00:15:57.519 Democrats or if it's on the main debate stage going 249 00:15:57.559 --> 00:16:00.759 up against Jade Vance, he's gonna get fried. 250 00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:04.799 So here's the thing. 251 00:16:05.960 --> 00:16:09.600 I think most lawmakers, even on the Democrats side, would 252 00:16:09.639 --> 00:16:12.720 be open to the idea of is this the sunk 253 00:16:12.759 --> 00:16:15.679 cost fallacy? Should we just cut our losses? Should we 254 00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:18.120 just say forget it? We need to just abandon this project. 255 00:16:18.120 --> 00:16:21.759 It's never gonna happen. It's just not viable. Forget it, 256 00:16:21.799 --> 00:16:27.039 We're done, roll it all up, deconstruct it, get all 257 00:16:27.080 --> 00:16:29.480 the stuff for salvage or something, and move on. 258 00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:33.440 I think a lot of Democrats would be open to that. 259 00:16:34.039 --> 00:16:36.360 I think particularly a lot of Democrats from the Los 260 00:16:36.399 --> 00:16:39.559 Angeles area. Los Angeles was always less supportive of high 261 00:16:39.559 --> 00:16:42.519 speed rail than San Francisco was. It was always going 262 00:16:42.559 --> 00:16:45.320 to be more of a benefit to San Francisco. Why well, 263 00:16:46.360 --> 00:16:50.039 home prices in San Francisco are too insane. The trend 264 00:16:50.120 --> 00:16:52.519 has been in the San Francisco in the Bay area 265 00:16:52.919 --> 00:16:56.120 just to move further and further south away from the 266 00:16:56.120 --> 00:17:00.440 Bay Area and have longer and longer commutes. Speed rail 267 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:04.039 was a very attractive thing if you're a young if 268 00:17:04.039 --> 00:17:07.039 you're an urban professional, you want to buy a big 269 00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:10.400 old house in Madera or something and commute twice a 270 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:13.440 week to San Francisco, get a high speed rail train 271 00:17:13.519 --> 00:17:16.799 and by to being by a bang baa boom. That 272 00:17:17.559 --> 00:17:19.400 made a lot of sense for the Bay Area. It 273 00:17:19.440 --> 00:17:25.480 doesn't make as much sense for Los Angeles. So, I mean, 274 00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:27.880 I don't think anyone's going to buy a home in 275 00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:33.079 Bakersfield to go, you know, commute two hours to go 276 00:17:33.119 --> 00:17:39.200 into Los Angeles or something. So high speed rail was 277 00:17:39.240 --> 00:17:42.119 always more popular in the Bay Area. I could see 278 00:17:42.160 --> 00:17:46.160 a lot of LA Area lawmakers thinking this is dumb, 279 00:17:46.279 --> 00:17:48.200 Like why are we still This is not really going 280 00:17:48.279 --> 00:17:51.559 to benefit our region all that much. It's going to 281 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:55.960 cost a lot of money, and like, you know, it's 282 00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:58.400 not very environmentally sensitive to say, but we have a 283 00:17:58.440 --> 00:18:00.880 high speed system to get from to San Francisco. 284 00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:01.880 It's called airplanes. 285 00:18:02.440 --> 00:18:05.160 We got a gazillion planes that shuttle back and forth 286 00:18:05.559 --> 00:18:09.160 forty minutes flat you go from Los Angeles to San Francisco. 287 00:18:13.720 --> 00:18:19.640 So I could see lawmakers from Los Angeles saying, you know, 288 00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:22.799 forget it. I'd never voted for the Look I could 289 00:18:22.799 --> 00:18:25.559 see a lawmaker from Los Angeles saying, hey, I was 290 00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:28.559 like sixteen when the state voted for the high speed 291 00:18:28.599 --> 00:18:32.400 rail in two thousand and eight. Alexandra Mesdo, the assembly 292 00:18:32.400 --> 00:18:35.279 member from Visalia, is saying that same thing. 293 00:18:35.359 --> 00:18:37.119 She said, I was in middle school when the state 294 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:39.559 voted for this. A lot of these. 295 00:18:39.519 --> 00:18:44.359 Lawmakers from LA could say, look, I wasn't a prominent 296 00:18:44.359 --> 00:18:46.640 person pushing for the high speed rail in two thousand 297 00:18:46.640 --> 00:18:50.000 and eight. I don't have any commitment to this. I'm out. 298 00:18:50.400 --> 00:18:52.880 I'm not going to keep voting for its funding anymore. 299 00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:57.680 Democrats could do that, but there's one Democrat who needs 300 00:18:57.680 --> 00:19:03.440 it to succeed, and it's Gavin Newsom. If Gavin Newsom, 301 00:19:04.519 --> 00:19:09.160 if his own Democrats rebel and say we're done with 302 00:19:09.160 --> 00:19:11.559 the high speed rail, we're giving up. If Gavin Newsom, 303 00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:17.359 seven years into his eight years of governorship, were to 304 00:19:17.599 --> 00:19:19.960 finally pull the plug on the high speed rail. 305 00:19:19.920 --> 00:19:20.559 Now. 306 00:19:23.480 --> 00:19:28.559 There's no way he's running for president. Now it's different. 307 00:19:28.599 --> 00:19:31.160 If Newsom on day one had said forget it. This 308 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:33.240 high speed rail is a it's a train of nowhere. 309 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:36.559 It's never gonna happen, and he withdrew support. If he 310 00:19:36.599 --> 00:19:39.200 withdrew support for it in twenty nineteen when he started 311 00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:42.799 as governor, he'd be in a much better position right now. 312 00:19:45.359 --> 00:19:49.240 He wouldn't have this issue hanging over his head. 313 00:19:50.599 --> 00:19:52.440 But he's in too deep now. 314 00:19:54.400 --> 00:19:58.039 He has the high speed rail has to work for 315 00:19:58.160 --> 00:19:59.440 his political ambitions. 316 00:20:00.200 --> 00:20:02.119 There's no other option for him. 317 00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:04.680 If if the state legislature pulls all the funding for 318 00:20:04.720 --> 00:20:06.079 the high speed rail and gives up on. 319 00:20:06.079 --> 00:20:08.240 It, he's done. 320 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.880 I think I don't think he's got a prayer in 321 00:20:11.920 --> 00:20:15.519 a Democrat presidential contest against Jade Vans if they can 322 00:20:15.680 --> 00:20:18.720 just say, look at this idiot who supported this high 323 00:20:18.720 --> 00:20:21.200 speed rail project that was such a waste of money, 324 00:20:21.519 --> 00:20:25.440 such a disaster that his own Democrats couldn't even support 325 00:20:25.440 --> 00:20:30.079 it anymore. I think he's cooked, and I think he 326 00:20:30.200 --> 00:20:33.799 knows it. I think he understands that's why he's bringing 327 00:20:33.839 --> 00:20:36.759 Ezra Clin on to try to onto his podcast to 328 00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:39.240 try to like talk to him about oh, no, no, no, 329 00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:41.519 it's not a disaster. And then of course the next 330 00:20:41.599 --> 00:20:46.640 day here's the budgetary thing where they say, yeah, there's 331 00:20:46.720 --> 00:20:51.039 actually a seven billion dollars short shortfall that we need 332 00:20:51.079 --> 00:20:58.839 to get resolved by June of twenty twenty six. He's 333 00:20:59.839 --> 00:21:04.519 I mean, if he doesn't get the high speed rail 334 00:21:05.319 --> 00:21:08.960 on track to be completed in twenty thirty twenty thirty three, 335 00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:16.839 he's cooked. And if the state legislature undoes it there, 336 00:21:16.880 --> 00:21:20.680 I mean, he's if the state legislature eventually pulls its support, 337 00:21:20.680 --> 00:21:24.119 if all the Democrat lawmakers from Los Angeles southern California 338 00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:30.240 join with all the Republicans, it could be doomed for him, 339 00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:34.880 and I think that's what he's worried about. I wonder 340 00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:38.079 how much juice he still has. Our lawmakers still afraid 341 00:21:38.119 --> 00:21:42.000 of him. I think they are, probably because he's got 342 00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:47.680 such a good connection with the donor class. Probably still 343 00:21:47.680 --> 00:21:49.599 be a bad idea to make an enemy out of him. 344 00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:58.680 So I'm I don't know that Newsome. I think a 345 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:02.599 lot of lawmakers are willing to accept this is a 346 00:22:02.599 --> 00:22:05.480 sunk cost. We got to just cut our losses and 347 00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:10.039 move on. But he can't. He can't if he wants 348 00:22:10.039 --> 00:22:13.519 to run for president, he can't make that decision. So 349 00:22:13.799 --> 00:22:16.440 as a result, I think he's gonna have enough sway 350 00:22:16.519 --> 00:22:19.000 with his fellow Democrats to move them to keep on, 351 00:22:19.960 --> 00:22:23.759 keep on, keeping on, keep on funding this thing in 352 00:22:23.759 --> 00:22:26.440 a state where we're running deficit every year, we don't 353 00:22:26.480 --> 00:22:29.519 have enough money for it. I think he's gonna keep 354 00:22:29.559 --> 00:22:33.680 pouring money into this. I wish he'd be willing to 355 00:22:33.759 --> 00:22:38.240 sort of accept reality, but he can't do that and 356 00:22:38.279 --> 00:22:39.200 then run for president. 357 00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:40.559 It just it won't work. 358 00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:47.200 When we return the alternate universes of Gavin Newsom next 359 00:22:47.240 --> 00:22:52.279 on the John Zarardy Show, it's funny to think how 360 00:22:52.400 --> 00:22:55.839 it all could have gone so much differently for Gavin Newsom. 361 00:22:57.279 --> 00:23:00.680 If he had made a couple of different decisions, he 362 00:23:00.759 --> 00:23:06.799 would be the rock star of the left and probably 363 00:23:06.839 --> 00:23:08.240 the shoe in for twenty twenty eight. 364 00:23:10.039 --> 00:23:14.119 The left would look at him the way you know. 365 00:23:15.200 --> 00:23:17.799 I mean, if if Trump had not come back to 366 00:23:17.920 --> 00:23:20.759 run in twenty twenty four, Ron DeSantis would have been 367 00:23:20.759 --> 00:23:23.640 the rock star for the right. And I think DeSantis 368 00:23:23.640 --> 00:23:25.920 probably would have kicked Biden's but I think DeSantis probably 369 00:23:25.920 --> 00:23:30.000 would have kicked Kamala Harris's but and would would have 370 00:23:30.160 --> 00:23:32.960 had this rock star. And DeSantis is a very popular 371 00:23:32.960 --> 00:23:36.799 Republican governor. I think Newsom is not that to the left. 372 00:23:38.279 --> 00:23:42.359 I think he's disliked by the hard Bernie left, and 373 00:23:42.400 --> 00:23:44.240 I think a lot of people look at him skeptically, 374 00:23:44.279 --> 00:23:47.480 even on the more moderate left, the kind of the 375 00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:53.359 the John Fetterman types. I don't think he's a beloved figure. 376 00:23:55.000 --> 00:23:57.680 And it's so interesting to think what kind of a 377 00:23:57.720 --> 00:24:00.519 governorship he could have had if he had just taken 378 00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:04.400 a couple of different steps, even on things that don't 379 00:24:04.440 --> 00:24:09.200 necessarily touch on like core liberal beliefs, or on things 380 00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:12.519 where he could have been more liberal. So let me 381 00:24:12.559 --> 00:24:23.799 count the waves. So Gavin Newsom comes in in twenty nineteen. 382 00:24:24.119 --> 00:24:28.200 He's sworn in January of twenty nineteen. It was right 383 00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:31.519 then where there was all this talk about is Newsome 384 00:24:31.599 --> 00:24:33.720 gonna abandon the high speed rail? A lot of people 385 00:24:33.759 --> 00:24:35.480 thought he was going to abandon in the high speed rail, 386 00:24:37.240 --> 00:24:39.920 broad understanding that he was less enthused about it than 387 00:24:40.000 --> 00:24:43.440 Jerry Brown, was less idealistic about it. He was cutting, 388 00:24:43.680 --> 00:24:45.440 we were going to cut our losses, were done with 389 00:24:45.519 --> 00:24:48.359 high speed rail. He comes in though, with this half 390 00:24:48.440 --> 00:24:52.880 measure of like, well, he basically cannot bring himself fully 391 00:24:52.920 --> 00:24:56.480 to abandoned high speed rail. He gets convinced to well, 392 00:24:56.519 --> 00:25:01.359 we'll just finish merceaid to Bakersfield without hending seemingly that 393 00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:05.400 merceaid to Bakersfield is an incredibly tall order still for 394 00:25:05.480 --> 00:25:12.759 which we still don't have the money, and he basically 395 00:25:12.759 --> 00:25:15.599 takes the position we will finish merceaid to Bakersfield in 396 00:25:15.680 --> 00:25:17.880 order to demonstrate the viability of the system as a whole, 397 00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:20.559 so he doesn't abandon high speed rail when he could have. 398 00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:23.519 He had an opportunity to credibly do that in twenty nineteen, 399 00:25:24.920 --> 00:25:30.440 he didn't do it. That's a big sliding doors moment. 400 00:25:30.640 --> 00:25:33.359 You know, take the red pill or take the blue pill. 401 00:25:33.640 --> 00:25:37.559