Speaker 1: L Week thirteen. Welcome everybody to the NFL Presidential Address.
I am Lawrence Pressman. They call me the pres co
founder of wager Talk Media, and I'm going to take
apart every single game on the board that is correct,
a full slate. We got three games on Thursday, one
game on Friday, a whole bunch on Sunday, and of
course we will end with the Monday night game New
York Giants going into New England. We are going to
do something a little different this time around. We're going
to start with the Sunday games. So if you guys
are watching this video before Thanksgiving and you want to
know my thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day games and the
Friday night games, I'm going to attach that at the
end of the video so I will get to it,
just not right away. I also have a big promo
to discuss with you guys. But let's take apart the
first game before we do anything else. So that is
Houston plus four and a half up against Indianapolis a
total in this game of forty four and a half,
and we've seen a lot of money coming in on
the Indianapolis Colts. This line opened at minus three and
a half and it crossed four, which means there's been
some some substantial bets placed on the Indianapolis Colts. Ninety
two percent of the money, however, has been placed on
the under, which makes sense to me given that Houston
is involved in this game. This Houston defense is outstanding.
They played brilliantly last week on Thursday night against Buffalo.
They have a long week of rest, and I think
they understand that in order for them to win football games,
their defense has to be their leading entity. And I
think that's where we're going to go in this game.
I like under the total of forty four and a
half and I understand Indianapolis has gone a lights out offense,
but Kansas City has shown us the blueprint to stop
the Indianapolis Colt stack the box. Tell Jonathan Taylor is
doing nothing and force Danny Dives or Indiana Jones or
whatever you want to call him to throw the ball.
This Indianapolis coltsteam put up a grand total of eighteen yards,
yes one eight eighteen yards in the second half against
Kansas City, and I think Houston's defense is better. So
rather than try and figure out if CJ. Stroud is
healthy and back and ready to rock and roll and
able to take Houston up and down the field and
beat this Indianapolis Colts team. Or if Indianapolis had an
aberration last game and they're still going to rock and roll,
let's put all that aside. Let's just bet the under
forty four and a half. That's where we're going. As
for Arizona and Tampa Bay, I'm not going to overthink this, guys.
I'm gonna just play against Arizona from now till the
end of the season. This Arizona team, for some reason,
cannot get out of its own way. They could be
up thirty to three and still find a way to
lose this game with five minutes to go. That is correct.
We've already seen them do that once this year. So
this Arizona team, Yeah, they're healthier than they were. Yes,
their defense is better than it was. Yes, they are
moving the ball up and down the field. I understand
all that. But losers are losers, and this team all
they do is lose. Whereas you take Tampa Bay. Now,
I understand Baker might not play. He might play, but
I got the home team here. They have to win
this game if they want to dominate that Division, and
I think Tampa Bay is just better. We have a
two and a half on board at one of the books,
mostly three if this goes to two. I like Tampa
Bay on the money line, but I'm not going to
bet on Arizona, not now, not ever again this year.
I'm going to take Tampa Bay and I'm going to
take the minus the two and a half. Now, before
we get into the Jacksonville Tennessee game, I want to
tell you guys that I have a five percent playoff.
It's my biggest play so far this year. Frankly, I
don't think I've liked an NFL bet more this season.
It is a Thanksgiving Day game and you guys can
have that five percent play for a half price. Just
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percent off. Okay, let's talk about Jacksonville going into Tennessee
and shout out to Tennessee. This team has definitely improved
compared to what we saw last year, and we really
expected that. We knew with their new quarterback, the new
system in place, we knew it was going to take
time for them to mesh, and they are finally scoring
a little bit. Defensively, I think this team has improved
a ton and I would not sleep on this Tennessee defense.
This team is fast. With that said, the only bet
I could make in this game is Jacksonville minus six
and a half, and I don't think I could make it,
So I'm just gonna move on to the Lle Rams
Carolina game. And I'm telling you right now, guys, I
think the Lle Rams the best team in all of football.
Their defense is lights fricking out. This Carolina team played
one of the worst defenses in all of football, San Fran,
and they were able to put up nine. Now it
was really ten, but it ended up being nine. If
they put up nine on San Fran's horrible defense, how
many points do we expect them to put up on
the Rams. I think they might put up more than
nine they are at home, but I don't think they
get more than thirteen in this game. I think even
at minus ten and a half, the Rams are a
bet here. This Rams offense is spectacular. Matthew Stafford is
playing probably the best football I've ever seen him play,
and that includes his Super Bowl run. Matthew Stafford is
on fire right now. I look at this game and
I think to myself, the Rams are gonna get us
twenty eight points. They're gonna get us around twenty eight
points every single game. Can Carolina get to seventeen? I
don't think so. I'm gonna take the Rams minus ten
and a half. Now New Orleans is going into Miami,
and my original reaction is, Miami's the bet here minus six.
This Miami team, there's positive stuff coming out of the
dressing room. They've obviously bought into Mike McDaniels to some
degree because they're playing hard for him. Right now, they're
on a two game win streak, they're finally getting healthy.
Speaker 2: But with all that said, that's exactly the time shitty
teams lose. So even though I want to bet Miami
here at minus six, and I think Miami at minus
six is the right play, we could be talking next
week about, Hey, remember when we bet Miami minus six
against New Orleans? How did they lose thirty to three.
That's the problem with this Miami Dolphins team. Right when
you think they might have figured it out, is exactly
the time to bet against them. So although I like Miami,
I'm deeply concerned about this bet. So my leen is
on the Dolphins, but I probably will stay away Atlanta
and the New York Jets. A lot of money is
coming in on the Jets. I do a show every
day called The Best Bet, the Best betting Show Ever.
It's with me, Joe and Airy and Art to Caesar
and Art Works at the West Gate as the risk manager,
and he is the one taking all of these bets.
So he told us on the show that they have
taken substantial money on Atlanta, and I understand that. Look,
the Jets are playing with their coach. I get it,
and hat Breese hol of not bubbled that bowl. We
might be having a whole different conversation right now. But
the bottom line is this Atlanta team played really well
last week and against New Orleans in New Orleans, and
I don't think the New York Jets are that much
better than the New Orleans team. I also think Atlanta
has a really excellent defense unit, and I think the
New York Jets are going to struggle to score. I
would look to bet this game under the total of
thirty nine and a half points, and I would look
to take Atlanta at minus the two and a half.
Speaker 1: I can legitimately see this game being somewhere around seventeen
thirteen Atlanta. That feels like the right type of score
for me. And on top of that, the weather is changed.
It's cold, it's rainy, it's snowy, there's going to be wind.
Take under the total of thirty nine and a half
and take the road favorite. Sand Ran going into Cleveland
talking about road favorite. So this is a bet on
San Fran and one against Cleveland, and I'm going to
start with Cleveland. They looked awesome against the Las Vegas Raiders.
With that said, there is a fairly decent chance that
Liberty would have looked awesome against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I would say there's more than a fifty percent chance
that SMU would have looked good against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I'd say there's about an eighty percent chance that the
Saskatchewan rut Riders would have looked good against the Las
Vegas Raiders. So take that with a grain of salt. However,
it is important to the handicap because I think Cleveland
being plus four against the Raiders pissed that team off.
I think they sat there and they're like, we can't
be this bad, Like the Las Vegas Raiders are the
worst team in the league and we are the underdog
in this game.
Speaker 2: No chance.
Speaker 1: They literally dominated every side of the ball against the
Las Vegas Raiders. I think that that was their super Bowl.
I think that the Cleveland Browns went into Las Vegas
and said, we are not worse than this team. We're
gonna show the world. They know they're worse than San Fran.
They know that will beat them nine out of ten
times on a neutral field. They know that their super
Bowl is over. They beat Raiders, and now they could
go back to being the Cleveland Browns, the most appropriately
named team in the history of sport, the Browns. So
what that said, we gotta look at San Fran because
I think this is a giant letdown spot for the
Cleveland Browns. Even with San Fran's horrible defense, they should
eat Sanders up. I know Sanders put up over two
hundred yards. I get it. That was fake. He got
sixty six yards on the last play on that pass
that was like slightly behind the line of scrimmage ended
up being like negative one yard pass that turned into
a sixty six yard run. Sanders is going to get
eaten alive on Sunday, and this Cleveland team is not
going to be able to keep up. Santren is going
to score against this team. I understand Cleveland's defense is excellent.
I think Cleveland puts up a grand total of ten
points in this game. Can san Fran put up more
than fifteen? I think they can. I think no matter
how good Cleveland's defense is, they have allowed more than
fifteen on a regular basis. They're not playing the freaking Raiders.
I think this game has twenty to ten written all
over it. I love san Fran here, one of my
stronger plays and likely a circa bet. Before we get
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Minnesota going into Seattle, and we have another minus ten
and a half on tap. This is a total reaction
to how bad JJ McCarthy is, and really he is.
Look as you can see in the screen, it was
Seattle minus nine at one point. That's how much money
is coming down. With that said, there are middles available
out there right now. There is ten and a half,
so almost every book and still a couple of nine
and a half's out there. The official life of this show, however,
is ten and a half and the total is forty one.
And I gotta tell you, guys, I don't think I
can get to the window on this game at all.
My problem here is that Minnesota's defense is good enough
to keep Seattle from putting up a big number. In
order to cover ten and a half, you've got to
put up a big number. Is Seattle's defense good I
think they're great. Are they going to hold Minnesota down? Likely?
But Minnesota can go out and put up thirteen points.
That means Seattle has to get twenty three. Might be
a big ask given how windy the stadium might be
on Sunday. The weather is turning as we discussed, and
Minnesota has a strong defense. I don't like this game
at all. If a gun was held to my head,
I would take the Vikings, but it's not. Let's move
to Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Now. I'm going to tell you
right now that this will be a circle plate for me.
I love the Bills now minus three and a half.
I think they go into Pittsburgh and I think they
beat this team by margin. Yeah. Look, I've been high
on the Buffalo Bills since the beginning of the season.
I was on Buffalo against Houston last week and I
was wrong. I've been wrong about Buffalo this year. More
often than I've been right. But here is what we know.
We know that teams as it gets close to the playoffs,
the good teams play their best ball. I think Pittsburgh
is a bad team. I think they are regressing. I
don't think Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph, either of them
are currently quality quarterbacks. I think they lack an offense,
and I don't think their defense is as good as
the Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been in the past. Plus,
they got a really angry Buffalo team. Buffalo is gonna
come in here. I think there's gonna be a SmackDown lad.
I think Buffalo wins this game by more than ten.
One of my favorite players on the board, Buffalo bills
minus three and a half. Now we got Las Vegas
going into LA and playing the Chargers. I'm gonna make
this really quick. What is the absolute maximum points the
Las Vegas Raiders can score on the Los Angeles Chargers? Zero? Okay,
there might be a fluke and they get a field goal.
Maybe there's a holding call on the Chargers and they
get a safety. Potentially there's a pick six and they
get a touchdown that way, so that gets us to twelve.
We're gonna give the Raiders thirteen points in this game.
I don't see them getting anywhere near more than that.
As for the Chargers, they're gonna march up and down
the field on the Raiders. Minus ten feels short to me.
This game is thirty to three, maybe thirty to thirteen.
Even with thirty to thirteen, that's seventeen points difference. My
favorite minus two of the yure is this play right
here the Los Angeles Chargers. I know we don't want
to bet minus tens. I don't see how the Raiders
keeps keep this game close. I mean, they just fired
Chip Kelly. It wasn't his fault. They have no O line,
it's not his fault. Gino Smith can't throw the ball.
It's not his fault that they drafted the wrong running back.
Nothing is gonna change in Vegas. This team is god
awful and they're gonna be god awful on Sunday. Denver Washington,
I'm gonna look to take the over in this game.
Washington's defense is horrible, and Denver I feel like they're
gonna be able to play this game very loose and free.
They've got a real big lead in their division. They're
feeling really good about themselves. They're coming into this game
off of a long rest. Same with Washington. I think
we're gonna see Denver air the ball out. I think
bo Nicks is gonna go over in passing yards. I
think we're gonna see a slightly different Denver team to
what we're used to. And I think they're going to
put up a lot of points. And as for Washington,
this Washington team is still going to get us to
twenty twenty two to twenty four points. This is a
low total forty three and a half. One of my
favorite totals of the week take over in the Denver
Washington game. And as for the Monday night game, we've
got the New York Giants going in and playing New England. Look.
I like the Giants here, guys. This Giants team could
have beat Detroit took them to overtime. It doesn't matter
who's playing quarterback for them. They've found a new lease
of life since they got a new coach and the
team is playing loose. They've got nothing to lose. Seven
and a half is too high, Plus Drake may can
throw some interceptions along the way. I like the dog
on Monday night. Now let's get into our Thanksgiving card
and then our Friday night game, Detroit hosting green Bay,
and Guys, I like the over in this game, and
I don't see any other way to bet it. Really.
I understand that both green Bay and Detroit. But more,
green Bay has got a really good defense. In green
Bay held Minnesota the six, but hey, the New York
Giants put up twenty on this green Bay defense. Pittsburgh
put up twenty five, Arizona put up twenty three. Now
they're playing indoors against the Detroit team that has played
two horrible games in a row. I think we see
Detroit offensively come out flying in this game. And I
think both of these teams are gonna go for it
on fourth down. This is an absolute must win game
with both of these teams. The loser of this game
is going to not make the playoffs. Yes you heard
that here. This is a playoff game. Winner goes on,
loser does not. I think we're gonna see these the
Detroit play to their definition, which is an exciting offensive team,
and I think green Bay will have no choice but
to keep pace. And we have seen green Bay put
up points. They just scored thirty. They just scored twenty
three on Minnesota, twenty seven on the Giants. They put
thirty five up on Pittsburgh, twenty seven on Arizona, twenty
seven on Cincinnati, forty on Dallas. This Green Bay team
can score forty nine. We're going with the over. Now.
I want to give you guys the best trend I've
heard in a long long time. How do you attack
this Kansas City Dallas game? Well, my original reaction was
take Dallas, take the points. They're at home. They did
it against Philadelphia. They're feeling good. There's a great dressing
room vibe right now. They fixed their defense to a degree.
They're playing way better, and they have to win this game.
Kansas City has to win this game too, And Kansas
City are playing lights out right now. I mean defensively.
They held Indianapolis to eighteen total yards in their last game,
and if you take out the Pat Mahomes interception, which
basically was a pick six, Indy couldn't even score on
this team. With all that said, road favorites on Thanksgiving
are twenty five and one straight up and twenty and
six against the spread in their last twenty six spots
let me say that again a road favorite. Kansas City
is minus three on the road, so they are a
road favorite twenty and six against the spread in their
last twenty six spots. I am not betting into that.
This game is from a side perspective, a pass Cincinnati
playing Baltimore. Joe Burrow for some reason is going to
show up and play in this game. I don't understand why.
It makes no sense to me. Cincinnati is completely out
of it. But one thing we know, they're scoring. They're
scoring with Browning at quarterback. They're scoring with Flacco at quarterback. Jesus,
they might even be able to score with Justin Fields
at quarterback. JJ McCarthy would score for the Cincinnati Bengals team.
So I got to look at the over in this game.
I think the Cincinnati defense might be the worst, second
worst defensive unit in all of football and their offensive scoring.
Baltimore is going to score thirty plus points almost every
game moving forward there and must win mode. I'm not
going to overthink this. We're going to look to take
over the total of fifty one and a half. And
as of Philadelphia and Chicago, this game is interesting because
Philadelphia does not seem to win games by margin, so
I would immediately look to take Chicago at plus the
seven year. I just don't buy the Chicago team. This
team is winning with smoke and mirrors. This might be
the worst good team in all of football, but this
is a team that is leading the division and might
find themselves out of the playerlayoffs. When all said and done,
I think Philadelphia wins this game. Do they cover seven?
I think they do. Actually, I think this might be
a get right game for the Philadelphia Eagles. We saw
them try stretch the field last game against Dallas. If
Philadelphia can stretch the field and get the ball down
to aj Or Smith, that will open up the slot
for their tight ends, that will open up the running
game for Saquon, and all of a sudden, this offense
is a whole different can of worms. Now, I do
see this happening slowly. What I mean by slowly is
I think every week we get closer to the playoffs
is a week Philadelphia throws the ball more, even with
the bad weather. I just don't think they have a choice.
The reason Saquon in their running game has been non
existent is because they don't pass the ball. If you
don't throw the ball you can't run the I like
over the total of forty five. I think the Chicago
Bears defense is awful, and I think they will score.
And I think Philadelphia is going to put up a
big number. I like Philly minus the seven and over
the total of forty five, you can get forty four
and a half out there.
Speaker 2: That's it for.
Speaker 1: The NFL Presidential address for Week thirteen. I hope you
guys enjoyed it. Please hit the like button, Please subscribe
to our channel, make sure to comment. It was able
to read all the comments last week, but I did
not respond to most. Had a very busy week. My
dad had surgery and I was kind of in and
out a little bit. But I will respond to a
lot of the comments this week. Guys. I can't thank
you enough for your loyal support watching this video twenty
years of doing it means the world to me. Let's
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Let's of love everybody, and we'll see you next week.