1 00:00:01,679 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: L Week thirteen. Welcome everybody to the NFL Presidential Address. 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,560 I am Lawrence Pressman. They call me the pres co 3 00:00:09,679 --> 00:00:13,759 founder of wager Talk Media, and I'm going to take 4 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,000 apart every single game on the board that is correct, 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,039 a full slate. We got three games on Thursday, one 6 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,160 game on Friday, a whole bunch on Sunday, and of 7 00:00:25,199 --> 00:00:29,320 course we will end with the Monday night game New 8 00:00:29,399 --> 00:00:31,679 York Giants going into New England. We are going to 9 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,600 do something a little different this time around. We're going 10 00:00:34,679 --> 00:00:38,560 to start with the Sunday games. So if you guys 11 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,399 are watching this video before Thanksgiving and you want to 12 00:00:41,439 --> 00:00:44,759 know my thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day games and the 13 00:00:44,799 --> 00:00:47,359 Friday night games, I'm going to attach that at the 14 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,439 end of the video so I will get to it, 15 00:00:50,679 --> 00:00:53,240 just not right away. I also have a big promo 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,600 to discuss with you guys. But let's take apart the 17 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,759 first game before we do anything else. So that is 18 00:00:58,119 --> 00:01:01,280 Houston plus four and a half up against Indianapolis a 19 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,640 total in this game of forty four and a half, 20 00:01:03,679 --> 00:01:05,680 and we've seen a lot of money coming in on 21 00:01:05,719 --> 00:01:08,879 the Indianapolis Colts. This line opened at minus three and 22 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,519 a half and it crossed four, which means there's been 23 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:18,519 some some substantial bets placed on the Indianapolis Colts. Ninety 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,040 two percent of the money, however, has been placed on 25 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,560 the under, which makes sense to me given that Houston 26 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,640 is involved in this game. This Houston defense is outstanding. 27 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,719 They played brilliantly last week on Thursday night against Buffalo. 28 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,760 They have a long week of rest, and I think 29 00:01:34,799 --> 00:01:38,280 they understand that in order for them to win football games, 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,519 their defense has to be their leading entity. And I 31 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,400 think that's where we're going to go in this game. 32 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,519 I like under the total of forty four and a 33 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,760 half and I understand Indianapolis has gone a lights out offense, 34 00:01:52,799 --> 00:01:56,680 but Kansas City has shown us the blueprint to stop 35 00:01:56,719 --> 00:02:01,040 the Indianapolis Colt stack the box. Tell Jonathan Taylor is 36 00:02:01,079 --> 00:02:04,959 doing nothing and force Danny Dives or Indiana Jones or 37 00:02:04,959 --> 00:02:07,400 whatever you want to call him to throw the ball. 38 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:12,240 This Indianapolis coltsteam put up a grand total of eighteen yards, 39 00:02:12,319 --> 00:02:16,400 yes one eight eighteen yards in the second half against 40 00:02:16,479 --> 00:02:20,039 Kansas City, and I think Houston's defense is better. So 41 00:02:20,199 --> 00:02:24,120 rather than try and figure out if CJ. Stroud is 42 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,639 healthy and back and ready to rock and roll and 43 00:02:26,719 --> 00:02:28,840 able to take Houston up and down the field and 44 00:02:28,879 --> 00:02:32,520 beat this Indianapolis Colts team. Or if Indianapolis had an 45 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,520 aberration last game and they're still going to rock and roll, 46 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,439 let's put all that aside. Let's just bet the under 47 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:41,960 forty four and a half. That's where we're going. As 48 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,639 for Arizona and Tampa Bay, I'm not going to overthink this, guys. 49 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:47,840 I'm gonna just play against Arizona from now till the 50 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,960 end of the season. This Arizona team, for some reason, 51 00:02:51,039 --> 00:02:53,400 cannot get out of its own way. They could be 52 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,680 up thirty to three and still find a way to 53 00:02:55,759 --> 00:02:59,280 lose this game with five minutes to go. That is correct. 54 00:02:59,319 --> 00:03:03,120 We've already seen them do that once this year. So 55 00:03:03,199 --> 00:03:07,560 this Arizona team, Yeah, they're healthier than they were. Yes, 56 00:03:07,599 --> 00:03:10,759 their defense is better than it was. Yes, they are 57 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,240 moving the ball up and down the field. I understand 58 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:17,560 all that. But losers are losers, and this team all 59 00:03:17,599 --> 00:03:20,319 they do is lose. Whereas you take Tampa Bay. Now, 60 00:03:20,319 --> 00:03:23,840 I understand Baker might not play. He might play, but 61 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,639 I got the home team here. They have to win 62 00:03:26,719 --> 00:03:30,000 this game if they want to dominate that Division, and 63 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,719 I think Tampa Bay is just better. We have a 64 00:03:32,759 --> 00:03:35,240 two and a half on board at one of the books, 65 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,000 mostly three if this goes to two. I like Tampa 66 00:03:39,039 --> 00:03:41,560 Bay on the money line, but I'm not going to 67 00:03:41,599 --> 00:03:45,520 bet on Arizona, not now, not ever again this year. 68 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,400 I'm going to take Tampa Bay and I'm going to 69 00:03:47,479 --> 00:03:50,599 take the minus the two and a half. Now, before 70 00:03:50,599 --> 00:03:53,199 we get into the Jacksonville Tennessee game, I want to 71 00:03:53,199 --> 00:03:55,560 tell you guys that I have a five percent playoff. 72 00:03:55,560 --> 00:04:00,680 It's my biggest play so far this year. Frankly, I 73 00:04:00,719 --> 00:04:04,240 don't think I've liked an NFL bet more this season. 74 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:08,560 It is a Thanksgiving Day game and you guys can 75 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,879 have that five percent play for a half price. Just 76 00:04:11,919 --> 00:04:15,560 go over to wager talk dot com, find my page 77 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:22,360 and use the promo code half price, half price, half price, 78 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,720 and you get my five percent NFL bet for fifty 79 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,800 percent off. Okay, let's talk about Jacksonville going into Tennessee 80 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,120 and shout out to Tennessee. This team has definitely improved 81 00:04:34,199 --> 00:04:36,720 compared to what we saw last year, and we really 82 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:41,199 expected that. We knew with their new quarterback, the new 83 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,879 system in place, we knew it was going to take 84 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,160 time for them to mesh, and they are finally scoring 85 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,639 a little bit. Defensively, I think this team has improved 86 00:04:50,639 --> 00:04:53,720 a ton and I would not sleep on this Tennessee defense. 87 00:04:53,759 --> 00:04:57,519 This team is fast. With that said, the only bet 88 00:04:57,519 --> 00:04:59,920 I could make in this game is Jacksonville minus six 89 00:05:00,079 --> 00:05:01,959 and a half, and I don't think I could make it, 90 00:05:02,079 --> 00:05:05,680 So I'm just gonna move on to the Lle Rams 91 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,800 Carolina game. And I'm telling you right now, guys, I 92 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,040 think the Lle Rams the best team in all of football. 93 00:05:11,519 --> 00:05:16,399 Their defense is lights fricking out. This Carolina team played 94 00:05:16,439 --> 00:05:20,240 one of the worst defenses in all of football, San Fran, 95 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,480 and they were able to put up nine. Now it 96 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,399 was really ten, but it ended up being nine. If 97 00:05:28,439 --> 00:05:34,079 they put up nine on San Fran's horrible defense, how 98 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,319 many points do we expect them to put up on 99 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,560 the Rams. I think they might put up more than 100 00:05:39,639 --> 00:05:41,360 nine they are at home, but I don't think they 101 00:05:41,399 --> 00:05:44,199 get more than thirteen in this game. I think even 102 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,120 at minus ten and a half, the Rams are a 103 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,240 bet here. This Rams offense is spectacular. Matthew Stafford is 104 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,600 playing probably the best football I've ever seen him play, 105 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:57,480 and that includes his Super Bowl run. Matthew Stafford is 106 00:05:57,639 --> 00:06:00,759 on fire right now. I look at this game and 107 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,079 I think to myself, the Rams are gonna get us 108 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,000 twenty eight points. They're gonna get us around twenty eight 109 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:12,000 points every single game. Can Carolina get to seventeen? I 110 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,839 don't think so. I'm gonna take the Rams minus ten 111 00:06:14,879 --> 00:06:17,759 and a half. Now New Orleans is going into Miami, 112 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:22,600 and my original reaction is, Miami's the bet here minus six. 113 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,399 This Miami team, there's positive stuff coming out of the 114 00:06:25,519 --> 00:06:31,120 dressing room. They've obviously bought into Mike McDaniels to some 115 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,680 degree because they're playing hard for him. Right now, they're 116 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,160 on a two game win streak, they're finally getting healthy. 117 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:42,519 Speaker 2: But with all that said, that's exactly the time shitty 118 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,199 teams lose. So even though I want to bet Miami 119 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,480 here at minus six, and I think Miami at minus 120 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,959 six is the right play, we could be talking next 121 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,519 week about, Hey, remember when we bet Miami minus six 122 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:58,800 against New Orleans? How did they lose thirty to three. 123 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,759 That's the problem with this Miami Dolphins team. Right when 124 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,759 you think they might have figured it out, is exactly 125 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:11,000 the time to bet against them. So although I like Miami, 126 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,839 I'm deeply concerned about this bet. So my leen is 127 00:07:14,839 --> 00:07:18,800 on the Dolphins, but I probably will stay away Atlanta 128 00:07:18,839 --> 00:07:21,279 and the New York Jets. A lot of money is 129 00:07:21,319 --> 00:07:23,160 coming in on the Jets. I do a show every 130 00:07:23,199 --> 00:07:26,160 day called The Best Bet, the Best betting Show Ever. 131 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,519 It's with me, Joe and Airy and Art to Caesar 132 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,399 and Art Works at the West Gate as the risk manager, 133 00:07:31,439 --> 00:07:33,519 and he is the one taking all of these bets. 134 00:07:33,959 --> 00:07:36,399 So he told us on the show that they have 135 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,439 taken substantial money on Atlanta, and I understand that. Look, 136 00:07:41,439 --> 00:07:43,600 the Jets are playing with their coach. I get it, 137 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,240 and hat Breese hol of not bubbled that bowl. We 138 00:07:46,319 --> 00:07:49,160 might be having a whole different conversation right now. But 139 00:07:49,279 --> 00:07:52,240 the bottom line is this Atlanta team played really well 140 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,759 last week and against New Orleans in New Orleans, and 141 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,160 I don't think the New York Jets are that much 142 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,160 better than the New Orleans team. I also think Atlanta 143 00:08:01,199 --> 00:08:03,879 has a really excellent defense unit, and I think the 144 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,279 New York Jets are going to struggle to score. I 145 00:08:06,319 --> 00:08:08,680 would look to bet this game under the total of 146 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,480 thirty nine and a half points, and I would look 147 00:08:11,519 --> 00:08:14,160 to take Atlanta at minus the two and a half. 148 00:08:14,519 --> 00:08:19,279 Speaker 1: I can legitimately see this game being somewhere around seventeen 149 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,279 thirteen Atlanta. That feels like the right type of score 150 00:08:23,319 --> 00:08:25,879 for me. And on top of that, the weather is changed. 151 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,879 It's cold, it's rainy, it's snowy, there's going to be wind. 152 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,839 Take under the total of thirty nine and a half 153 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,440 and take the road favorite. Sand Ran going into Cleveland 154 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,559 talking about road favorite. So this is a bet on 155 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,360 San Fran and one against Cleveland, and I'm going to 156 00:08:43,399 --> 00:08:47,759 start with Cleveland. They looked awesome against the Las Vegas Raiders. 157 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,720 With that said, there is a fairly decent chance that 158 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:57,159 Liberty would have looked awesome against the Las Vegas Raiders. 159 00:08:57,399 --> 00:08:59,799 I would say there's more than a fifty percent chance 160 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:04,080 that SMU would have looked good against the Las Vegas Raiders. 161 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,639 I'd say there's about an eighty percent chance that the 162 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,559 Saskatchewan rut Riders would have looked good against the Las 163 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:14,480 Vegas Raiders. So take that with a grain of salt. However, 164 00:09:14,799 --> 00:09:18,679 it is important to the handicap because I think Cleveland 165 00:09:18,799 --> 00:09:23,080 being plus four against the Raiders pissed that team off. 166 00:09:23,399 --> 00:09:25,360 I think they sat there and they're like, we can't 167 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,279 be this bad, Like the Las Vegas Raiders are the 168 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,679 worst team in the league and we are the underdog 169 00:09:31,759 --> 00:09:32,360 in this game. 170 00:09:32,879 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: No chance. 171 00:09:34,039 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: They literally dominated every side of the ball against the 172 00:09:39,759 --> 00:09:43,720 Las Vegas Raiders. I think that that was their super Bowl. 173 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,240 I think that the Cleveland Browns went into Las Vegas 174 00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:50,919 and said, we are not worse than this team. We're 175 00:09:50,919 --> 00:09:54,960 gonna show the world. They know they're worse than San Fran. 176 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,919 They know that will beat them nine out of ten 177 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:03,080 times on a neutral field. They know that their super 178 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:06,279 Bowl is over. They beat Raiders, and now they could 179 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,320 go back to being the Cleveland Browns, the most appropriately 180 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:15,559 named team in the history of sport, the Browns. So 181 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,440 what that said, we gotta look at San Fran because 182 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,960 I think this is a giant letdown spot for the 183 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:27,120 Cleveland Browns. Even with San Fran's horrible defense, they should 184 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,399 eat Sanders up. I know Sanders put up over two 185 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,799 hundred yards. I get it. That was fake. He got 186 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,559 sixty six yards on the last play on that pass 187 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:41,000 that was like slightly behind the line of scrimmage ended 188 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,120 up being like negative one yard pass that turned into 189 00:10:45,159 --> 00:10:48,639 a sixty six yard run. Sanders is going to get 190 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:52,559 eaten alive on Sunday, and this Cleveland team is not 191 00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:55,360 going to be able to keep up. Santren is going 192 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,759 to score against this team. I understand Cleveland's defense is excellent. 193 00:10:59,799 --> 00:11:03,399 I think Cleveland puts up a grand total of ten 194 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,799 points in this game. Can san Fran put up more 195 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,919 than fifteen? I think they can. I think no matter 196 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,960 how good Cleveland's defense is, they have allowed more than 197 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,360 fifteen on a regular basis. They're not playing the freaking Raiders. 198 00:11:19,159 --> 00:11:22,440 I think this game has twenty to ten written all 199 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,720 over it. I love san Fran here, one of my 200 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,240 stronger plays and likely a circa bet. Before we get 201 00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:31,039 into the four o'clock group beings, I want to make 202 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,559 mention about what's going on over at wager Talk. We 203 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,639 have an incredible Thanksgiving special up guys. It's live now, 204 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,159 it's active until Monday, and that is sixty nine dollars 205 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:47,639 for seven days of plays. That's every sport, every unit 206 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,240 play five perciplly that I have an NFL you can 207 00:11:50,279 --> 00:11:52,480 get it with sixty nine bucks. You buy a whole week, 208 00:11:52,879 --> 00:11:57,399 and guys, I am freaking rolling. I made big money 209 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,159 last week for my clients. I won five of my 210 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:05,039 last seven days of betting. I am dominating NBA. My 211 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,919 NHL has been on fire for over a month. My 212 00:12:09,159 --> 00:12:12,879 NFL from this week to the playoffs is when I 213 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:16,440 do the best work in my NFL. And my College 214 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,440 Bowl season has been spectacular with three straight weeks yours. 215 00:12:21,159 --> 00:12:24,279 Granted college Bowl does not counting that seven days, but 216 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:30,000 my college is mediocre anyway, sixty nine dollars. You can 217 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,000 use that for any andicapper you want, but buy me 218 00:12:33,279 --> 00:12:37,679 the next seven days sixty nine bucks. That's our Thanksgiving special. Okay, 219 00:12:37,919 --> 00:12:40,919 Minnesota going into Seattle, and we have another minus ten 220 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,799 and a half on tap. This is a total reaction 221 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:48,120 to how bad JJ McCarthy is, and really he is. 222 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,600 Look as you can see in the screen, it was 223 00:12:50,639 --> 00:12:54,240 Seattle minus nine at one point. That's how much money 224 00:12:54,279 --> 00:12:57,399 is coming down. With that said, there are middles available 225 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,720 out there right now. There is ten and a half, 226 00:12:59,799 --> 00:13:03,440 so almost every book and still a couple of nine 227 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,600 and a half's out there. The official life of this show, however, 228 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,399 is ten and a half and the total is forty one. 229 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,440 And I gotta tell you, guys, I don't think I 230 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:14,879 can get to the window on this game at all. 231 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,279 My problem here is that Minnesota's defense is good enough 232 00:13:18,639 --> 00:13:22,039 to keep Seattle from putting up a big number. In 233 00:13:22,159 --> 00:13:23,879 order to cover ten and a half, you've got to 234 00:13:23,919 --> 00:13:27,679 put up a big number. Is Seattle's defense good I 235 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,440 think they're great. Are they going to hold Minnesota down? Likely? 236 00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:34,679 But Minnesota can go out and put up thirteen points. 237 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,039 That means Seattle has to get twenty three. Might be 238 00:13:38,159 --> 00:13:42,000 a big ask given how windy the stadium might be 239 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,120 on Sunday. The weather is turning as we discussed, and 240 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:49,919 Minnesota has a strong defense. I don't like this game 241 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,759 at all. If a gun was held to my head, 242 00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:56,000 I would take the Vikings, but it's not. Let's move 243 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,000 to Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Now. I'm going to tell you 244 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,279 right now that this will be a circle plate for me. 245 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,919 I love the Bills now minus three and a half. 246 00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:06,320 I think they go into Pittsburgh and I think they 247 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:10,080 beat this team by margin. Yeah. Look, I've been high 248 00:14:10,159 --> 00:14:12,360 on the Buffalo Bills since the beginning of the season. 249 00:14:12,399 --> 00:14:14,720 I was on Buffalo against Houston last week and I 250 00:14:14,879 --> 00:14:17,600 was wrong. I've been wrong about Buffalo this year. More 251 00:14:17,639 --> 00:14:20,559 often than I've been right. But here is what we know. 252 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:25,000 We know that teams as it gets close to the playoffs, 253 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:29,440 the good teams play their best ball. I think Pittsburgh 254 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:33,159 is a bad team. I think they are regressing. I 255 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,759 don't think Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph, either of them 256 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:42,120 are currently quality quarterbacks. I think they lack an offense, 257 00:14:42,159 --> 00:14:44,480 and I don't think their defense is as good as 258 00:14:44,879 --> 00:14:49,440 the Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been in the past. Plus, 259 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:53,879 they got a really angry Buffalo team. Buffalo is gonna 260 00:14:53,919 --> 00:14:56,320 come in here. I think there's gonna be a SmackDown lad. 261 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,639 I think Buffalo wins this game by more than ten. 262 00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:01,720 One of my favorite players on the board, Buffalo bills 263 00:15:01,799 --> 00:15:04,320 minus three and a half. Now we got Las Vegas 264 00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:07,080 going into LA and playing the Chargers. I'm gonna make 265 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,440 this really quick. What is the absolute maximum points the 266 00:15:10,519 --> 00:15:18,960 Las Vegas Raiders can score on the Los Angeles Chargers? Zero? Okay, 267 00:15:19,679 --> 00:15:22,639 there might be a fluke and they get a field goal. 268 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,080 Maybe there's a holding call on the Chargers and they 269 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,559 get a safety. Potentially there's a pick six and they 270 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,320 get a touchdown that way, so that gets us to twelve. 271 00:15:35,759 --> 00:15:39,080 We're gonna give the Raiders thirteen points in this game. 272 00:15:39,399 --> 00:15:42,639 I don't see them getting anywhere near more than that. 273 00:15:42,879 --> 00:15:45,279 As for the Chargers, they're gonna march up and down 274 00:15:45,279 --> 00:15:48,519 the field on the Raiders. Minus ten feels short to me. 275 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:53,000 This game is thirty to three, maybe thirty to thirteen. 276 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:58,240 Even with thirty to thirteen, that's seventeen points difference. My 277 00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:03,879 favorite minus two of the yure is this play right 278 00:16:03,879 --> 00:16:07,039 here the Los Angeles Chargers. I know we don't want 279 00:16:07,039 --> 00:16:10,919 to bet minus tens. I don't see how the Raiders 280 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,240 keeps keep this game close. I mean, they just fired 281 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,879 Chip Kelly. It wasn't his fault. They have no O line, 282 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,840 it's not his fault. Gino Smith can't throw the ball. 283 00:16:21,159 --> 00:16:24,080 It's not his fault that they drafted the wrong running back. 284 00:16:25,159 --> 00:16:28,159 Nothing is gonna change in Vegas. This team is god 285 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,320 awful and they're gonna be god awful on Sunday. Denver Washington, 286 00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:35,080 I'm gonna look to take the over in this game. 287 00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:38,759 Washington's defense is horrible, and Denver I feel like they're 288 00:16:38,759 --> 00:16:41,399 gonna be able to play this game very loose and free. 289 00:16:41,759 --> 00:16:45,960 They've got a real big lead in their division. They're 290 00:16:46,039 --> 00:16:49,039 feeling really good about themselves. They're coming into this game 291 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,159 off of a long rest. Same with Washington. I think 292 00:16:52,159 --> 00:16:54,320 we're gonna see Denver air the ball out. I think 293 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,000 bo Nicks is gonna go over in passing yards. I 294 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,279 think we're gonna see a slightly different Denver team to 295 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:01,919 what we're used to. And I think they're going to 296 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,160 put up a lot of points. And as for Washington, 297 00:17:04,559 --> 00:17:06,559 this Washington team is still going to get us to 298 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,920 twenty twenty two to twenty four points. This is a 299 00:17:10,039 --> 00:17:12,640 low total forty three and a half. One of my 300 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,039 favorite totals of the week take over in the Denver 301 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,440 Washington game. And as for the Monday night game, we've 302 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,519 got the New York Giants going in and playing New England. Look. 303 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:25,440 I like the Giants here, guys. This Giants team could 304 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,400 have beat Detroit took them to overtime. It doesn't matter 305 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,720 who's playing quarterback for them. They've found a new lease 306 00:17:31,759 --> 00:17:34,000 of life since they got a new coach and the 307 00:17:34,039 --> 00:17:37,480 team is playing loose. They've got nothing to lose. Seven 308 00:17:37,519 --> 00:17:40,119 and a half is too high, Plus Drake may can 309 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,680 throw some interceptions along the way. I like the dog 310 00:17:43,839 --> 00:17:47,079 on Monday night. Now let's get into our Thanksgiving card 311 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,799 and then our Friday night game, Detroit hosting green Bay, 312 00:17:50,839 --> 00:17:53,319 and Guys, I like the over in this game, and 313 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,559 I don't see any other way to bet it. Really. 314 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,400 I understand that both green Bay and Detroit. But more, 315 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,000 green Bay has got a really good defense. In green 316 00:18:02,039 --> 00:18:05,319 Bay held Minnesota the six, but hey, the New York 317 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,160 Giants put up twenty on this green Bay defense. Pittsburgh 318 00:18:09,279 --> 00:18:13,519 put up twenty five, Arizona put up twenty three. Now 319 00:18:13,559 --> 00:18:17,279 they're playing indoors against the Detroit team that has played 320 00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:20,480 two horrible games in a row. I think we see 321 00:18:20,519 --> 00:18:24,400 Detroit offensively come out flying in this game. And I 322 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,720 think both of these teams are gonna go for it 323 00:18:26,759 --> 00:18:31,119 on fourth down. This is an absolute must win game 324 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,599 with both of these teams. The loser of this game 325 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:39,000 is going to not make the playoffs. Yes you heard 326 00:18:39,039 --> 00:18:43,160 that here. This is a playoff game. Winner goes on, 327 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:47,200 loser does not. I think we're gonna see these the 328 00:18:47,319 --> 00:18:51,960 Detroit play to their definition, which is an exciting offensive team, 329 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,160 and I think green Bay will have no choice but 330 00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:57,079 to keep pace. And we have seen green Bay put 331 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,519 up points. They just scored thirty. They just scored twenty 332 00:19:01,559 --> 00:19:04,559 three on Minnesota, twenty seven on the Giants. They put 333 00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:08,319 thirty five up on Pittsburgh, twenty seven on Arizona, twenty 334 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,960 seven on Cincinnati, forty on Dallas. This Green Bay team 335 00:19:12,039 --> 00:19:16,920 can score forty nine. We're going with the over. Now. 336 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,079 I want to give you guys the best trend I've 337 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,759 heard in a long long time. How do you attack 338 00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:25,720 this Kansas City Dallas game? Well, my original reaction was 339 00:19:25,799 --> 00:19:28,039 take Dallas, take the points. They're at home. They did 340 00:19:28,079 --> 00:19:30,920 it against Philadelphia. They're feeling good. There's a great dressing 341 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:35,680 room vibe right now. They fixed their defense to a degree. 342 00:19:35,799 --> 00:19:38,400 They're playing way better, and they have to win this game. 343 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,359 Kansas City has to win this game too, And Kansas 344 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,720 City are playing lights out right now. I mean defensively. 345 00:19:45,079 --> 00:19:50,960 They held Indianapolis to eighteen total yards in their last game, 346 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,960 and if you take out the Pat Mahomes interception, which 347 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,799 basically was a pick six, Indy couldn't even score on 348 00:19:58,839 --> 00:20:05,440 this team. With all that said, road favorites on Thanksgiving 349 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:12,400 are twenty five and one straight up and twenty and 350 00:20:12,839 --> 00:20:18,720 six against the spread in their last twenty six spots 351 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:24,599 let me say that again a road favorite. Kansas City 352 00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:28,039 is minus three on the road, so they are a 353 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:34,480 road favorite twenty and six against the spread in their 354 00:20:34,559 --> 00:20:38,279 last twenty six spots. I am not betting into that. 355 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:43,799 This game is from a side perspective, a pass Cincinnati 356 00:20:44,079 --> 00:20:47,240 playing Baltimore. Joe Burrow for some reason is going to 357 00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:49,839 show up and play in this game. I don't understand why. 358 00:20:50,319 --> 00:20:53,039 It makes no sense to me. Cincinnati is completely out 359 00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:56,039 of it. But one thing we know, they're scoring. They're 360 00:20:56,079 --> 00:21:01,359 scoring with Browning at quarterback. They're scoring with Flacco at quarterback. Jesus, 361 00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:05,519 they might even be able to score with Justin Fields 362 00:21:05,559 --> 00:21:11,480 at quarterback. JJ McCarthy would score for the Cincinnati Bengals team. 363 00:21:11,559 --> 00:21:13,400 So I got to look at the over in this game. 364 00:21:13,559 --> 00:21:16,119 I think the Cincinnati defense might be the worst, second 365 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,000 worst defensive unit in all of football and their offensive scoring. 366 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,119 Baltimore is going to score thirty plus points almost every 367 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,319 game moving forward there and must win mode. I'm not 368 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,200 going to overthink this. We're going to look to take 369 00:21:29,279 --> 00:21:31,799 over the total of fifty one and a half. And 370 00:21:31,839 --> 00:21:36,240 as of Philadelphia and Chicago, this game is interesting because 371 00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:40,839 Philadelphia does not seem to win games by margin, so 372 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,279 I would immediately look to take Chicago at plus the 373 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,759 seven year. I just don't buy the Chicago team. This 374 00:21:47,839 --> 00:21:50,640 team is winning with smoke and mirrors. This might be 375 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,880 the worst good team in all of football, but this 376 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,759 is a team that is leading the division and might 377 00:21:57,799 --> 00:22:01,559 find themselves out of the playerlayoffs. When all said and done, 378 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,880 I think Philadelphia wins this game. Do they cover seven? 379 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,240 I think they do. Actually, I think this might be 380 00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:11,319 a get right game for the Philadelphia Eagles. We saw 381 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:15,359 them try stretch the field last game against Dallas. If 382 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,319 Philadelphia can stretch the field and get the ball down 383 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,880 to aj Or Smith, that will open up the slot 384 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,200 for their tight ends, that will open up the running 385 00:22:26,279 --> 00:22:30,160 game for Saquon, and all of a sudden, this offense 386 00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:33,240 is a whole different can of worms. Now, I do 387 00:22:33,799 --> 00:22:39,079 see this happening slowly. What I mean by slowly is 388 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,079 I think every week we get closer to the playoffs 389 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,680 is a week Philadelphia throws the ball more, even with 390 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,359 the bad weather. I just don't think they have a choice. 391 00:22:49,559 --> 00:22:52,359 The reason Saquon in their running game has been non 392 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,720 existent is because they don't pass the ball. If you 393 00:22:55,960 --> 00:23:01,319 don't throw the ball you can't run the I like 394 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,440 over the total of forty five. I think the Chicago 395 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,799 Bears defense is awful, and I think they will score. 396 00:23:08,079 --> 00:23:09,880 And I think Philadelphia is going to put up a 397 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,839 big number. I like Philly minus the seven and over 398 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,559 the total of forty five, you can get forty four 399 00:23:16,599 --> 00:23:17,640 and a half out there. 400 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 2: That's it for. 401 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,519 Speaker 1: The NFL Presidential address for Week thirteen. I hope you 402 00:23:21,519 --> 00:23:25,400 guys enjoyed it. Please hit the like button, Please subscribe 403 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,680 to our channel, make sure to comment. It was able 404 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,680 to read all the comments last week, but I did 405 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,160 not respond to most. Had a very busy week. My 406 00:23:33,279 --> 00:23:35,799 dad had surgery and I was kind of in and 407 00:23:35,839 --> 00:23:38,000 out a little bit. But I will respond to a 408 00:23:38,039 --> 00:23:40,160 lot of the comments this week. Guys. I can't thank 409 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,799 you enough for your loyal support watching this video twenty 410 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,839 years of doing it means the world to me. Let's 411 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,599 win together and please use the promo code half price 412 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,200 and get my five percent NFL play for half price. 413 00:23:54,319 --> 00:23:56,880 Let's of love everybody, and we'll see you next week.