Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily Pulse for
Speaker 1: April twenty fifth, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin's having its best
Speaker 1: month in a year, and somehow traders are still mapping
Speaker 1: a path to seventy three thousand. That tension is the
Speaker 1: whole story today. Let's get into it, but first a
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is sitting around seventy seven thousand dollars spot ETFs
Speaker 1: just logged a nine day inflow streak, and five billion
Speaker 1: dollars in fresh tether hit the market this month. By
Speaker 1: every liquidity metric, the setup looks bullish, and yet the
Speaker 1: chart is telling a different story. The weekly trend line
Speaker 1: is still capping price. Traders aren't mapping eighty thousand as
Speaker 1: the next stop. They're mapping seventy three. That's not a
Speaker 1: contradiction once you understand what's happening. The macro fuel is real,
Speaker 1: the liquidity is real, but it's running into a wall
Speaker 1: of overhead supply that hasn't been cleared yet, so every
Speaker 1: bounce is a ceiling test, not a breakout. The monthly
Speaker 1: close on April thirtieth settles this debate close above seventy
Speaker 1: eight thousand, and the breakout narrative winds close below seventy five,
Speaker 1: and the nine day ETF streak starts looking like noise.
Speaker 1: Right now, we're stuck in the middle, and that's exactly
Speaker 1: where markets are most uncomfortable. Markets are pretty quiet on
Speaker 1: the surface, Bitcoin near seventy seven k, Ethereum around twenty
Speaker 1: three hundred Salana basically flat. Total market cap just under
Speaker 1: two point seven trillion. But here's the number that actually matters.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin dominance at fifty eight percent and rising. That means
Speaker 1: even while meme tokens are having an absolute moment, up
Speaker 1: thirty six percent in seven days on a fifty two
Speaker 1: billion dollar market cap, Ethereum is still bleeding market share.
Speaker 1: The alts are getting a selective bid, not a broad one.
Speaker 1: Roll ups are up twenty five percent two and that
Speaker 1: one's more structurally interesting. I'll get into why in a minute.
Speaker 1: Quick look at prediction markets, there's nearly a coin flip
Speaker 1: chance being priced that Bitcoin dips back to seventy five
Speaker 1: thousand before April ends. Meanwhile, ninety seven percent confidence that
Speaker 1: strategy Michael Sailor's company never sells a single coin through
Speaker 1: June and seventy four percent odds of a European Central
Speaker 1: Bank rate hike this year a macro tightening signal. The
Speaker 1: crypto sentiment is basically ignoring that last one deserves more
Speaker 1: attention than it's getting. Let's start with the AVE story.
Speaker 1: The Kelptow Bridge got exploited, and it left a gap
Speaker 1: in the backing for rs ETH, a restacking token used
Speaker 1: as collateral across DeFi lending markets. AVE is proposing to
Speaker 1: contribute twenty five thousand ethereum to something called DeFi United
Speaker 1: to plug that hole, and they're asking other protocols to match.
Speaker 1: DeFi protocols almost never act like a community. They compete,
Speaker 1: They hoard treasury funds, they let govern in drag on
Speaker 1: for weeks. AVE moving fast and asking others to join
Speaker 1: is genuinely unusual. The optimistic read defi's immune system is
Speaker 1: getting stronger. The skeptical read, if protocols are now expected
Speaker 1: to bail each other out after exploits, systemic risk just
Speaker 1: got repriced across the whole sector. Ave's own lending book
Speaker 1: sits at nearly fourteen billion dollars, so any collateral repricing
Speaker 1: has reel downstream effects. Watch whether other major protocols commit
Speaker 1: funds in the next forty eight hours. That's the real test.
Speaker 1: Next prediction markets Brazil banned twenty seven platforms in a
Speaker 1: single move, including CALSH and Polymarket, citing investor protection. The
Speaker 1: same week, the CFTC added New York to its enforcement
Speaker 1: campaign against prediction market pushback, and Wisconsin sued CALSH, Robinhood, Coinbase,
Speaker 1: and Polymarket simultaneously, three separate jurisdictions one week. That's coordinated
Speaker 1: p pressure, not coincidence, and the classified military intel story
Speaker 1: that broke earlier this week handed every regulator a perfect
Speaker 1: headline to justify it. Polymarket already moved offshore. Calshi has
Speaker 1: a US license and is fighting in court. Watch whether
Speaker 1: CALSH files a legal challenge to the CFTC's New York
Speaker 1: action in the next seven days. If they do, this
Speaker 1: becomes a federal case that sets precedent for the whole industry.
Speaker 1: And the one I'm most interested in Coinbase is Jesse Pollak,
Speaker 1: the person who actually runs Base, said AI agents are
Speaker 1: the next big wave for crypto payments. The thesis is simple.
Speaker 1: AI agents need to transact autonomously, and Fiat payment rails
Speaker 1: require human verification steps. That AI can't complete. Crypto rails
Speaker 1: don't have that problem. Base already does more daily transactions
Speaker 1: than a theory mainnet, so if agent driven payment volume
Speaker 1: shows up, it shows up on Base first. That's the
Speaker 1: structural story underneath the roll up price move this week.
Speaker 1: The tell will be bass daily transaction counts over the
Speaker 1: next seven days. If agent activity starts showing up as
Speaker 1: a distinct category and unchained data, the narrative moves from
Speaker 1: polax said so to the data confirms it all right
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks. Quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for Three
Speaker 1: things I'm watching. First, sentiment is running ahead of structure.
Speaker 1: The headlines are bullish, but the weekly trend line is
Speaker 1: still capping price, and traders are treating seventy three thousand
Speaker 1: as a live scenario. When the narrative is bullish but
Speaker 1: the chart is neutral to bearish, positioning gets crowded on
Speaker 1: the wrong side fast. Second, the restaking collateral situation from
Speaker 1: CELPDOO is not resolved if the DeFi United Coalition fails
Speaker 1: to close the shortfall protocols holding RSSET as collateral face
Speaker 1: a markdown event and fourteen billion dollars in lending is
Speaker 1: downstream of that third. The prediction market regulatory crackdown is
Speaker 1: moving faster than most people realize. Brazil, the CFTC, Wisconsin
Speaker 1: all in one week. If you're exposed to any platform
Speaker 1: in this space, the jurisdictional risk just went up meaningfully.
Speaker 1: Two things land on April thirtieth, and both are worth watching.
Speaker 1: The Bitcoin Monthly closes the obvious one seventy eight thousand,
Speaker 1: confirms the breakout below seventy five, and the narrative flips.
Speaker 1: The other is Mega F's token launch, also April thirtieth.
Speaker 1: They cleared their first performance milestone and set the date.
Speaker 1: A live token launch from a high profile roll up
Speaker 1: project is a direct test of whether roll up momentum
Speaker 1: translates into real demand or becomes a classic sell. The
Speaker 1: news set up, and somewhere in the next seven days
Speaker 1: the AVE governance vote on the DeFi United proposal closes.
Speaker 1: That outcome will tell us whether DeFi can actually function
Speaker 1: as a coalition when it needs to. That's the pulse
Speaker 1: for April twenty fifth. If you want the full written
Speaker 1: breakdown with all the sources and charts, the newsletter is
Speaker 1: at tokenmetrics dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. H I'm Alex, See you
Speaker 1: next time.