Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total bases.
It is Tuesday. That means it's five dollars Tuesday at
wager Talk, every handicapper will have a five dollars play up.
At some point I will have one. I don't know
what it's gonna be yet. If I play baseball, it'll
be this, or I'll get a football play out. We'll
get something up for five bucks. We always do. Brian Leonard,
welcome in. Anything up for sale for five dollars on
Tuesday so far.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I put up a play last night. It's on
today's college football. We're on an eleven and three run
in college football, and you can get that normally twenty
five dollars to four percent playabiit twenty five dollars, and
you only get it be able to get it today
for five. I do want to point out as since
Brandon obviously isn't with us, that all of our baseball
plays from now through the playoffs, unless it's a five
percent play, will be up for nine dollars. And since
we try to be as full as possible on this show.
I had a five percent in hockey yesterday one of
those games, and the team was down one nothing late.
I had Ottawa and at the end of the game,
everybody pulls goalies the whole thing. They lose four to one,
but I went three to one overall, including an easy
winner on the over in the baseball game that we
talked about yesterday, the Toronto game. A lot of scoring
in that Seattle Toronto game, and I thought the line
move was a bad one when it was originally out there,
and it was six runs scored in the first two innings.
So overall we both basically broke even. But I hate
to lose the five percent plays, and so I just
want to let everybody know I'm apologize for that and
we'll go and go away again today in hockey two
and one overall yesterday, And then want to know in baseball.
Speaker 1: I had one play yesterday. It was a five percenter.
It was the Atlanta Falcons. It won, and I watched
it with all Bills fans, So I went. I went
to a Bill's watch party at the casino with Action
on the Falcons. So that's so that's always fun, and
you know that that's always a good time. And and
you know, we got I would have been content with
a Bill a close Bill's win, but hey, you know
what I got out of there. Falcons won the game
probably should have been easy. I was never really that concerned.
I gotta say, actually, they'll take that back when that
the touchdown before the half got called off, which was
like a crazy hail Mary play that they ruled him
out at like the one, and then the Bills came
out of the locker room and scored. I could feel
the energy in the building because again where I'm in
Central New York, it's all Bills fans, and I'm just like,
I am going to be sweating this plus four. I
know how this goes. I've seen this story before and
I know how this goes, and I was ready for it.
But Bill's just kept turning the ball over. Falcons ended
up getting it done, so we didn't even need the
plus four. A great result, and I had a great
weeget in football, two five winners. I went three to
zero overall. I hit four NFL plays in a row,
So yeah, it's going going well on that side for me.
College football still negative a little bit, but football season
has been decent to this point. But it's still baseball season.
Brian Leonard. We still have Major League baseball playoffs tonight,
it's just one game. It's Game two Dodgers Brewers, so
let's get into it. My first thought here when I
saw the lines come out, I didn't really agree with
the Brewers being an underdog in this game. I understand
why they're an underdog in this game. I get it,
But after watching Roberts at the end of that game
and Sasaki having to come out and then trying and
sort of get into trouble, I don't know if the
Dodgers get away with another close win at this point
in this playoffs. Dave Roberts is gonna bite them at
some point. This bullpen's gonna bite them at some point. Point.
Could it be here? What do you think they bit
him yesterday?
Speaker 2: I mean, he brings trining in and I turned to
the wife. I go all over there, he's here he
is again, and sure enough he walks a guy and
then he should have hit the batter with the bases loaded.
The battery instinctively moved his leg out of the way
and says, why didn't you lat it hit him? I said,
to your entire life, when you're a baseball player, you're
trying to avoid getting hit and after the game, he said,
I made a mistake. I should have leed it hit
him and that would have tied the game, and then
they still had the bases loaded with the two out.
But that's the way it is. You can't you can't
change your instincts. I mean, he's going his entire life
without trying to get hit, and now all of a
sudden it happens. But yeah, to bring Trina in there.
I don't know what he's got, naked pictures of the
coach or something. I don't understand what it is. But
the starter goes eight innings, walks zero batteris, gives up
one hit, and the Dodgers still could have maybe lost
that game. You do have to have some concerns. Peralta
last time did not pitch well, so I would expect
a nice bounce back from him. Yamamoto has been great
all season long. But we're looking at the Dodgers right
now about the one twenty five range total is seven
to the over minus twenty five or so. There is
some seven and a half's out there in the same
number about him on this twenty five or so, so
we're looking at seven out a quarter. According to Steve
essick and it should be another really good game here.
You I do have to point out when you take
a look at this Dodgers lineup, Sean O'tani is really
struggling right now, and even the best to show you know,
we've seen other players struggle. It's not a good time
to do it. In the playoffs. We see Kershall do
it all the time. And it's somehow got it, at
least in my opinion, a bad reputation because of it.
But it happens. And I said, that is so is
Otani started pitching, that his hitting would suffer, and it
sure has. He's still a hell of a player, the
best player overall player in baseball, but he's not hitting.
And yesterday they made a move where they walked Otani
to get to bets. And I saw an article the
other day and I'm terrible about remembering names who posted stuff,
but bets in his life, his entire career, he's got
like a five to eighty three batting average. When somebody
walks before him and they do it intentionally and they
were able to get out of it, and I thought, well,
that's a good sign there, and it's sure enough he
kept him in the ball game. But when your best
player isn't hitting and you've got a bullpen that other
than you know, the clo the normal closer yesterday who
didn't pitch well, and that's Sasaki. They've struggled a little
bit in that regard. So it's hard to lay that
number on the road. But you know, we've got another
great picture in Milwaukee's a guy and we said it
yesterday and we made a good big point about this.
If Smith is catching, it really slows down the Milwaukee
run a game. They had one steal yesterday. If Smith
in plus we don't get anybody on base, you get
a one hitting one in zero walks, it's gonna be
tough for Walker's score. And they're going against a really
good picture in Yamamoto today. The part factor is showing
home run percent five percent over normal, double and triple
eight percent less, singles nine percent less, and runs eight
percent less. So we should get probably a lower scoring
game here. When we're taking a look at the starters
in this one on the stack cast, we've got Yamamoto's
just been terrific. Comes in with a two point four
nine ERA two point seven to three expected, zero point
nine to nine whip he does in the walk rate
thirty eighth percentile. That's the worst thing that he does,
just those six pitches. But basically a foresmer about league average,
a little bit more better than the league average, and
he's been very good all season long, so it's it's
tough to find any problems with him. And then when
you get to Freddy Pralty, he's also been great. But
he's already up one hundred and seventy six point two
innings last year, one hundred and seventy three point two
prior year one sixty five point two, so his innings
he's thrown a lot of innings over the last three years,
comes in with a two point seven O three point
four to seven expected one point eight whip. He also
has problems with his walk rate only the thirtieth percentile,
barrel rate thirty second, round ball twenty fifth, So it
could possibly be a situation where the Dodgers get a
bloop and a blast and then maybe all they need
in this game. I think the line is about where
I wouldn't make it without looking into any props or anything.
This early in the morning, it's probably going to be
a pass for me, and maybe we get some value
on Milwaukee. When we go back to LA, they'll be
bigger underdogs, and as Milwaukee's shown all year long, they
can went on the road as well as they can
at home. So that's probably what I'll do. I'll probably
at this point sit something, sit this one out, and
look for a bigger number once Milwaukee gets on the road,
and especially if they're down two to nothing, you would
think that the Dodgers, the casual fans that don't normally
bet baseball, will play the Dodgers and maybe we'll get
some better numbers there. But today, unfortunately, I don't have
much to add.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let me just like Rephraate, I don't disagree
with where the game is priced. I make the Brewers
personally a very slight favorite here, but I don't disagree
with the fact that the books had the Dodgers and
yamamode a slight favorite. I think that number is fully
where I expected it to be. And still I still
go back to our conversation yesterday, I still think the
Dodgers are the best team that's left in the in
the of the four teams in the playoffs. Now, I
expect this series to be somewhat competitive. I'd be a
little bit surprised if the Dodgers just come in and
wipe the Brewers out in four games. I think that
the Milwaukee's gonna win at some point. The reason I
make the Brewers a slight favorite here is I am
putting a little bit more. I think I'm putting a
little bit more stock into a couple of things than
the books are. First, the fact that they are at home.
I give him a little bit more of a bump
for that. Second. I don't think the books can quantify
Dave Roberts potentially screwing up a game, But I think
he's gonna screw up a game at some point. And
I think the last two, I mean the last two,
they were right there to be screwed up, if you will,
right the game against the Phillies going into extras yesterday's game,
I mean, Bryce ranging obviously you're not you don't try
to get hit by a ball and you're it's it's
all like, you can't even you can't even think quick
enough to be like, let this hit me. It's just
it's just a reflex. But I mean that ball misses
him by inches and then he swings out a pitch
out of the zone in the end of game like
that that could have easily and the ball hit by
Chario was a hard hit to drive the run in
could have easily been a Burrs win last night. So
I do think you're gonna see at least one or
two more games in this series that are close games
like that. And I'll go back to what I said yesterday.
Pat Murphy I think is a great manager. I really
think that he is. Like I, I did not know
that this was going to be the case when Counsel
went to the Cubs Murphy takes over the team. I
had no idea that like he like what his managerial
ability was gonna be. He's been great, and so I've
said at all playoffs, I really like to handicap the
manager what they're gonna do, how they might manage a game,
how I think that's gonna put their team in either
a position to win or to lose. And I just
for the most part, have liked the way Murphy manages
his team more than Roberts, who we've talked about for years,
is a little bit lost on the in game side.
I don't think Dave Roberts I'm not gonna give I'm
not gonna come in like TV and say he's just trash.
I don't think he's a bad, bad, bad manager, but
I think what he does well is is not x's
and o's in game or push the right buttons in game.
And that's where, like last night, perfect example, I'm not
bringing Roki Sasaki into that game why he's had issues
with his confidence during his time in LA. I don't
mind bringing him in out of the bullpen in a
tie game at home with a two to one lead
and being like, okay, give us some, give us some,
let's see how it goes, right Like, that was the
situation he came in against the Phillies game for it
was tie. He's throwing, no question the move to the
bullpen has helped Sasaki. He's throwing harder. But on what
planet did he just become your closer? Right? Like, like,
what have you seen in terms of his mental makeup
during his time in LA that suggests that that is
your best option with a lead on the road. That
was where I was just like I didn't like that
move at all, and it basically did backfire, like they
got away with it, but it like you said it
pretty much backflayed. He couldn't get the same They then
had to use trying and so I see a pretty
big edge late in this game for the Brewers if
they are tied or in the lead. And that's where
it goes back to like my handicap of making the
Brewers a slight favorite. I don't think Paralta and Yamamoto
are that different from a like how I would price them.
I understand Parolta maybe struggled a little bit against the Cubs,
still had fifteen strikeouts to nine and two thirds. His
overall season was very similar. I mean, the guy had
a one oh eight ear two seven zero whip. Both
of these pitchers pitched roughly the same amount of innings
during the regular season. Yamamoto's number is slightly better, but
I think I trust Peralta as the innings get up
there a little more than Yamamoto. You know, last year
Yamamoto at the big league level ninety innings during the
regular season, then he pitched in the playoffs. I still
think it's far more grueling to pitch here than in Japan.
So it's like, you know, we saw the cracks a
little bit for Yamamoto against the Phillies. I'm not gonna
count on him pitching. I'm handicapping this game thinking he's
gonna throw a good game because he's that good, right,
Like I'm not. I can't count on the Brewers getting
to him, but I think it's reasonable to say that
Paralta might be able to match him. And then if
you get to those late innings, Brewers at home, I
would give them a little bit of an edge being
at home. Like if this game, Brian, I'll throw this
back to you just to get your opinion on the
way I'm looking at this. If this game is in
the seventh inning or later and it's tied, would you
rather have the Dodgers or would you rather have the Brewers?
Like plus one to.
Speaker 2: Ten, I would agree, I would take I would like
the Brewers, especially being at home in that situation. Yeah,
this which is why I don't have a plan in
the game. It's where I met it, and I don't.
I don't force things and we're up already with fifteen
units in the Baseball Playoffs, so I'm not going to
force anything. And that's something my clients know. I'm not
a guy that you know on Monday night football. I
don't put out money night football plays unless I see
some value in it. It's just the way I am.
We're going to grind and we're the whole key, well
not the whole key, but one of the major keys
when you're sports betting is having the ability to say
the line is right and I don't have a play,
And if your handicapper is giving you plays on every
game that's on TV, he's not trying to benefit you.
And it's been a long time thing for me where
I'm don't make as much money as the other guys do,
and it's because I'm not going to force anything. And
every company the sales picks has those kind of guys
out there. If you want that action, don't choose me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you can pretty much like the fact
that we that our thing is baseball just pretty much
says that at this you know, at this point, like
that it's just not as popular as the other sports.
But we could go back in yesterday's conversation, it is.
I truly believe if you're if you're betting baseball, especially
if you can incorporate some of the smaller markets, that
that's where you're gonna win. And I think same thing
with college basketball. I think if you can really get
into the smaller leagues, you've got an edge. And I
think you got you hockey handicappers. From everything I've heard,
and I know nothing about hockey, is it is probably
one of the more it's probably would you, Brian Lenard,
I'm gonna ask you a hockey question on a baseball show.
Do you think hockey is the most beatable of the
pro sports markets.
Speaker 2: Definitely, because most people don't like playing favorite or don't
like playing underdogs. And yesterday and a lot of them
take a look at shots on goal. Yesterday there was
what twelve games, ten games, twelve games the team that
won the game had less shots on goal in all
but one game. It means nothing shots Chicago, I think
it was out shot. Like forty Toronto's game. They had
forty to fourteen on shots on goal than they lost.
When the team takes the lead, they take the air
out of the ball. Basically, it's not a hockey fit
not you know, it doesn't relate to hockey. But they
come back and they tip it and they go back
about the defense, and so you have to handicap it.
Totally differently. It's like in baseball, if a team gets
more hits than the opposition, it doesn't win unless the
opposition hits more home runs, new dudes. So yeah, every
every sport is different, and uh it's different ways to handicap.
And I love playing underdogs. Yesterday unfortunately didn't have any
underdogs anywhere, but we won. But uh yeah, it's a
situation for myself where I like playing the dogs. And
in hockey, if you go to a hockey game, if
you've ever seen a hockey game before, it can have
a beautiful setup. They're passing the puck and they got
the guy set up and he's just ready to crank
on that thing and he he barely touches the pucket
and then it slides a little bit. It's very hard.
It's much more timing in hockey. It's sort of like
baseball was swinging the bat. You know, you got to
have great timing and you gotta have the great angle.
Speaker 1: A little promo for your hockey picks. Again, this is
this is just me pulling the like you know, all
the sharp people I know that bet various sports, and
and from what I've gathered, it is it is the league,
the pro league, the pro league, right, I'm talking about
major pro sports baseball, football, football, hockey. It is the
pro league that the sharp guys seem to attack. I
don't because I don't know anything about hockey. I couldn't
tell you the first thing about the sport. But that's
why I bet minor league baseball. Brian, you gotta get
your edge somewhere, and everyone's edge is a little different.
So check Brian out for the hockey. I'm gonna go
to the comments for a second, see what people are
talking about and pertains to this game. Here. Yeah, Blake's smell,
but blake smell was awesome yesterday, Listen. I don't. I
don't mind. We could talk about like second guessing all
day and stuff. Listen. I probably would have let him
go out there for the ninth just because it's like
he had such a good game going. But he was
right at that sort of one oh three pitch mark
where I understand, especially after after the Dodgers got the
second run. When I coach, I coached a fifteen, sixteen,
seventeen year old baseball at a high level for years,
and I always sort of lean to giving my reliever
a clean inning. I didn't like making a mess for
my relief. If I knew that I was probably gonna
go to the pen, I typically wanted to do it
at the beginning of the inning. So I'm not going
to criticize Roberts for going to the bullpen in that spot.
It's easy to say I don't Tokyo Brandon like is
very like on like, how do you take starting pitchers out?
How could you do it? The reason you do it
and the reason I have no problem with his decision
to take Snell out there is if you know you're
gonna do it, and if he puts a guy or
two on and you know you're going to the pen anyway,
Like I get like wanting to give the guy a
clean inning. I get wanting to give a guy like
Roki Sasaki a clean inning because that's not a guy
I'm bringing into a mess. But at the same time,
like I just disagreed with using Sasaki as a closer.
I think he's a nice bullpen piece. He's throwing harder,
but I'm still putting a more seasoned closer like a
trine In or something into that spot, even though I've
rather have Sasaki throwing the ball right now, over tried,
and I just think that there's a different Uh, you know,
there's just a it's it's very spot now if it's
if that's a zero zero game in the ninth inning,
we'll throw Sasaki in there all day. That's a little
bit different. But putting him in with like, okay, now
you have to go and win this game and hold on.
I didn't like that at all, And it just ties
back into today. I think Roberts will present He's going
to be presented with a decision at some point in
this series where it backfires on him, And I think
that speaks to the overall sort of Dodgers. They've got
a bunch of good arms, but who do you really
want in like the big time leverage spot in that
bullpen right now? Right Like.
Speaker 2: I had no problem with him bringing Sazaki and I
thought he proved himself before that he just didn't have
it and it's gonna happen. People still have it sometimes.
The best in the business, Uh struggles sometimes. And I
talked about Otoni, so yeah, it's it's I don't faullot
him for bringis to Zakiam. I fauled him for bringing
in trying, and I wouldn't have even had Trnon on
the two roster if you asked me.
Speaker 1: T Fox says, Milwaukee's a good team. Take the plus
money again, Yeah, listen. I think the Brewers probably have
as many different ways to win a game, Like if
you look at the four teams that are left, like
I look at the Brewers and say, Okay, this team
can do it a lot of different ways. That that's
the one thing I really like about this Brewers team,
Like relative to the four teams that are still in it, Mariners,
Blue Jays, Dodgers, Brewers, I think the Brewers can win
a multitude of different ways, and I love that when
it comes to like just even go back to the
ninth inning right, like they could not hit Blake Snell yesterday,
Like what like tip the cap. Blake Snell is a
great pitcher. He's an ace when he's on, he could
be he's just straight up nasty. Think he gave up
what one or one hit over eight innings like it
was tremendous. I don't fault the Brewers for that at all.
You ran into one of the best pitchers in the
game who had his best stuff. Tip the cat, No,
problem with that. Still ninth inning, they weren't deterred. Every
person had a really good at that even the outs,
even the Churio out was allowed productive out. Yelich having
a good at back to continue the game, Contreras having
a good at back to continue the game. Listen, Teran
swung at a tough pitch like it's tough. He was
still ahead in that count at one point in time,
I think, or you know, he still battled up there
a little bit. So that's the type of thing that
makes me think, like, yeah, you're gonna give me plus money.
With this team at home, backs against the wall, they
can win a couple of different ways. Steve Duke says,
I'm taking bruise, no reason to hurry. Imagine everyone will
get Yamamoto. I believe in the Brewers and their lineup. Yeah,
I think when you make the statement I believe in
the Brewers and their lineup, that's what you're believing in
is the fact that they've got different ways they can
do it. They'll scrap out a hit, they'll move a
runner round, they'll knock them in. I Brian has any
has any of these four teams done that better than
the Brewers this season.
Speaker 2: No, you're the most complete team when it comes to that.
And if I find out that Smith caught yesterday, if
I find out that they dh them, the line is
the same as it is right now. I don't blame
a single person for taking Milwaukee because that's a big
part of their game. And when you go up against
you know, unfortunately just about everybody in the playoffs, you's
got a really good catcher that throws out. I was
the big Dumpers great at that. So that's that's the problem.
When you get this far into the playoffs, you're gonna
get teams that they're able to do that. So we'll
see what happens if is Smith dhs. I have no
problem at all playing in Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: Rick Reynolds says what separates the Brewers from everyone else
is how many different ways they can beat you. Elite,
different defense, evelite athleticism, they can hit for power or
play small ball, and they don't strike out. I think
we've I think we could honestly substitute some of our
guests for the third panelist. A lot of times, there's
a lot of smart there's a lot of smart comments
in the chat on a on a daily basis. It's
been that way all season. We very much appreciate all
the interaction you guys have given us, and that I
couldn't have said it better than Rick Reynolds right there,
like that is exactly how I view the Brewers as well.
And that's why I think if you could, if you
can weather the storm of Yamamoto, which I think Peralta
is one of the few guys that I would be
okay with weathering the storm with. I think you'll have
an edge in the later innings of this game that
is greater than like Brewers plus one ten. So that's
kind of how I'm That's kind of how I'm looking
at this. I'm not sure. I haven't bet it yet.
I'm not sure if I'll get to the window with
this one. As as you said, it's it's really tough
to bet postseason baseball every day one or two games.
The books are really not they're not making mistakes. But
the nice part about playoff baseball is you have so
much more money in the market that sometimes sometimes the
books have no choice, right, they have to price it
in a manner that's going to generate the handle that
they want to generate. And so I'm kind of with you, Brian.
I may wait to lineups here. I don't know. I
may bite earlier. I haven't decided yet. If you see
a base I'll tell you what. If you're watching this show,
if you see a baseball playoff for me today, price
for five dollars on five dollars Tuesday, it's probably the Brewers.
I can't imagine I would bet anything else. I will
be sort of thinking about that over the next couple hours.
But it's Brewers are passed for me. I think pretty
confident in saying it's Brewers or passed for me in
this spot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want to touch it. It's not a
baseball situation. But brand is not here today, and it
had nothing to do with his comments about Canada's over
there in Japan. But I will say Blue Jay's lose.
Hockey team loses, and a lot of people in Canada
for the Buffalo Bills because that's the closest team to Canada.
Our friends up and up north are not in a
happy mood today, so we'll see how We'll see how
it goes. But no, it has nothing to do with.
Speaker 1: Brandon now TV. Yeah. Someone asked the chat where he is,
he's got he had commitments we knew about today and tomorrow,
so we will have TV back on Thursday, which I
believe is when we'll be back to talking two games
a day quick show today because there was only one
game quick show tomorrow because there's only one game, but
Brianon Leonard and I will be here to break it
down with you. It is five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk,
so go check out all of the handicappers pages. From
a value standpoint, especially during football season when people are
putting football players up for five bucks. That our only
price for five dollars on Tuesday and then end up
going back to full price. Definitely something to take advantage of.
So check that out on the site and we will
be back tomorrow nine am to talk Mariners Blue Jays
game three. Until then, have a great day everyone, good luck,
and we'll see you guys in the morning.