Speaker 1: And here we go.
Speaker 2: Hi, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast. It
Speaker 2: is Friday, today is the third day of October. You're
Speaker 2: of our word twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan.
Speaker 2: And well we're just we're just getting word that apparently
Speaker 2: there is Hamas has responded to the plan to basically
Speaker 2: come to an agreement. Everybody in the Middle East, Israel, Egypt,
Speaker 2: you name it, the Arab country have all said yes
Speaker 2: to the agreement that was put together by President Trump
Speaker 2: sent over Benjamin Netta, who said, we agree to it.
Speaker 2: And so now we were just waiting for Hamas, and
Speaker 2: what we're learning is that Hamas has said that they
Speaker 2: have agreed to release all of the Israeli hostages held
Speaker 2: in Gaza, as well as the bodies of those who
Speaker 2: have died. They also said that they would release the
Speaker 2: hostages according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump's proposal,
Speaker 2: as long as the field conditions for the exchange are met.
Speaker 2: So you can see I'm reading from the agreement and
Speaker 2: you can see there's already some caveats that that they're
Speaker 2: putting in this, but it's it's movement in the right direction.
Speaker 2: Let me get some more of this, it says, in
Speaker 2: this context, the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter
Speaker 2: into negotiations through the mediator to discuss these details. So
Speaker 2: they also said that they have agreed to hand over
Speaker 2: the administration of the Gaza strip to a Palestinian body
Speaker 2: of independent technocrats based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab
Speaker 2: and Islamic support. So again a few more caveats on
Speaker 2: in there, but still moving in the right direction. So
Speaker 2: it's not clear from the language if they've agreed to
Speaker 2: the stipulation in the proposal that called for the group
Speaker 2: to be barred from exercising political power in the Gaza
Speaker 2: in the future, or if it sees itself amosis as
Speaker 2: a member of this body of Palestinian technocrats. So the
Speaker 2: question is whether Hamas's response will satisfy not only President
Speaker 2: Trump but also Israel. They did not address key elements
Speaker 2: of the proposal of the twenty point plan that Trump
Speaker 2: had put together that called on the group to give
Speaker 2: up its arms, and they also did not address the
Speaker 2: offer of amnesty to its members who commit to coexistence.
Speaker 2: So all of this President came out about the same time.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if it was in response to this
Speaker 2: or it just coincidental, but the President said all of
Speaker 2: this has to be agreed to. This agreement has to
Speaker 2: be made by six o'clock six pm Eastern time on Sunday.
Speaker 2: So we now have from the time we're recording this
Speaker 2: basically two days forty eight hours for them to come
Speaker 2: to an agreement. He says, we're all hell will break loose. Oh,
Speaker 2: they made some movement. This is the biggest movement that
Speaker 2: I think I've seen in all of this earlier today,
Speaker 2: this is before this agreement from Hamas General Keane was
Speaker 2: asked about all of this.
Speaker 1: Let's get his take of all.
Speaker 3: They didn't reject it out out of hand. Ye immediately.
Speaker 3: They may be. The likely thing is they're going to
Speaker 3: counter with something that they want to negotiate over and remove.
Speaker 1: That would be a good one.
Speaker 3: Listen, if they're going to fold their hands here and
Speaker 3: continue to fight, Netaw is very clear and he's got
Speaker 3: the President's support for it. He's going to go in
Speaker 3: there and finish it. And they've got them completely surrounded.
Speaker 3: They moved close to a million people out of Gaza
Speaker 3: City and it's really quite remarkable. So what is going
Speaker 3: to be left is largely Hamas and those that are
Speaker 3: supporting Hamas, and they will go in there and systematically
Speaker 3: deal with them. Now, it will take time. This isn't
Speaker 3: going to end in just a couple of weeks. It'll
Speaker 3: take some months. I'll take some patience, that is the objective.
Speaker 3: But now I support them completely on this. He's clear eyed.
Speaker 3: He's got to finish these guys once and for all.
Speaker 3: This it's fiction. When people say, well, this is an
Speaker 3: ideology and you can't defeat it, that's nonsense. We defeated
Speaker 3: the al Qaeda summarily in Iraq. These are guys with guns,
Speaker 3: and if you want to defeat them, you do what
Speaker 3: and you take their guns away and you kill them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So that was before this announcement. But Hamas obviously
Speaker 2: again the deadline is six pm Eastern Time on Sunday.
Speaker 2: And again this is the early reports that are coming in.
Speaker 2: But the President has again issued a Sunday evening deadline
Speaker 2: for Hamas to agree to his peace plan. And they
Speaker 2: did not have an immediate comment to the statement released
Speaker 2: by the Palestinian Group Byjmas. So there it looks like
Speaker 2: the White House is reviewing it, but there's still a
Speaker 2: lot of copy and a lot of we need to
Speaker 2: negotiate and going on.
Speaker 1: So we'll see.
Speaker 2: It's awfully hard to do breaking news with a podcast,
Speaker 2: but I thought it was pretty important of what has
Speaker 2: happened here on this Friday. Meantime, speaking a general team,
Speaker 2: there's other things that he talked about as well. One
Speaker 2: of them was the fact that we are now militarily
Speaker 2: going around and attacking drug boats that are coming from
Speaker 2: Latin America. And he was asked about the idea of
Speaker 2: us basically using kinetic force of our military regarding the
Speaker 2: drug lords.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's obvious to cartel's weaponizing drugs for their
Speaker 3: own Profitearian for sure, it's onder mining American society. The
Speaker 3: health and welfare of our society has been seriously penetrated.
Speaker 3: Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed by friends
Speaker 3: and alan. The approach we've been taken, not we're working.
Speaker 3: So this is an approach. It's different to be sure,
Speaker 3: we've stopped these boats in the past, but they keep coming.
Speaker 3: Now we're shooting the boats and it's likely they're going
Speaker 3: to stop coming. The President, i think, is notifying Congress
Speaker 3: that he defines this as armed conflict, which legally then
Speaker 3: gives him the authority to treat it not just as
Speaker 3: a law enforcement and aggressive policing where there's no threat
Speaker 3: to the police. Here, even though there's no threat to
Speaker 3: an armed military force, they can use that lethal force
Speaker 3: against them, even though there's no direct threat to them,
Speaker 3: because why it's an armed conflict. Distinction is important. I
Speaker 3: think this will get discussed among the lawyers. Are something
Speaker 3: going to get discussed among the Congress in terms of
Speaker 3: the legalities here. I'm not an expert on the legalities,
Speaker 3: but I do know what right looks like, and doing
Speaker 3: this makes sense to me.
Speaker 2: All right, So General Kean, I mean, he was very
Speaker 2: clear he thinks this makes sense that they are an
Speaker 2: enemy and that they're killing Americans with their drugs. And
Speaker 2: I know there's another whole discussion about the fact that
Speaker 2: the demand by Americans for drugs versus the supply by
Speaker 2: the cartel, But at this point General Keen is throwing
Speaker 2: his hat in the ring and saying I support it.
Speaker 2: We'll let the lawyers fight out whatever. It's going to
Speaker 2: go to the courts, obviously. And then the third topic
Speaker 2: that General Keen talked about today is asked about Ukraine
Speaker 2: and what are we going to do about Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Here's the general and listen.
Speaker 3: Ukraine has been doing great work with the system in
Speaker 3: the United States back in April. They've been on to
Speaker 3: systematically hit oil capabilities inside of Russia and now there's
Speaker 3: distribution problems and gas lines that we're seeing in some
Speaker 3: of the major cities in Russia. As a result of that,
Speaker 3: the President has opened the aperture than wider to use
Speaker 3: all of our long range offensive systems and is more
Speaker 3: coming and the United States Targeting Cell will assist the
Speaker 3: Ukrainians in reaching that. Russia and what's inside of Russia
Speaker 3: should not be a sanctuary, so where they can sustain,
Speaker 3: No sanctuary should exist in Russia. And what they have
Speaker 3: done as a result that the fact think about they
Speaker 3: don't have to defend anything in Russia, military logistics, infrastructure,
Speaker 3: they're oil capability, which sustains an army on the field,
Speaker 3: not just a population inside of Russia. And yes, the
Speaker 3: entire energy infrastructure, the industrial base should all be targets.
Speaker 3: I mean, we want to after Germany's industrial based, Japan's
Speaker 3: industrial base while we are also fighting frontline troops. This
Speaker 3: has been denied Ukraine to do it comprehensively. The administration
Speaker 3: is taking off all the restriction and letting them go forward,
Speaker 3: and our targeting cell provides them exquisite intelligence. So our
Speaker 3: audience understands this isn't something new. We've been providing intelligence
Speaker 3: to the Ukrainians from the outset and it's very, very good.
Speaker 2: We'll talking about a big change from the President. He
Speaker 2: sounded like he wasn't all that thrilled to support Zelensky
Speaker 2: and Ukraine, and now they're talking about long range missiles
Speaker 2: which will really change the balance of that war tremendously.
Speaker 2: Another breaking news item as we're recording the podcast on
Speaker 2: this Friday, is Sean ditty Combs at the Federal or
Speaker 2: at the New York Courthouse in Lower Manhattan, and they've
Speaker 2: been having a sentencing hearing all day and just moments ago. Well,
Speaker 2: the prosecutor wanted eleven years sentence for Shawn ditty Combs.
Speaker 2: His defense lawyers wanted fourteen months. He's been in jail
Speaker 2: for thirteen so basically it would be just about time served. Well,
Speaker 2: the judge just handed it down and said four years
Speaker 2: and two months is what the sentence is. Months he's
Speaker 2: served thirteen of those, so about a little more than
Speaker 2: three years more for Sean Diddy Combs to hang out
Speaker 2: in jail. So that is the sentence on him. Remember,
Speaker 2: he was acquitted of all the major charges against him,
Speaker 2: the Rico charges and all that, so the judge sentenced
Speaker 2: him solely on the two counts that he was found
Speaker 2: guilty of transportation for prostitution, two counts on that, so
Speaker 2: that he gets four years two months minus thirteen that
Speaker 2: he's already served. So that's for Sean Diddy Puff Daddy
Speaker 2: Combs out of the courthouse today in Lower New York.
Speaker 2: I do need to get to the government shutdown because
Speaker 2: there are some things going on behind the scenes. First
Speaker 2: of all, if you listen to conservative media, you will
Speaker 2: find that the Republicans have open and shutcase. They offered
Speaker 2: a just kick the can down the road until the
Speaker 2: third week of November. That's the clean continuing resolution. No
Speaker 2: big deal, why don't you sign this thing? And if
Speaker 2: you and and and it's and then and then the
Speaker 2: conservative media will will point out that this is all
Speaker 2: about Chuck Schumer, and Schumer is afraid because the Democrats
Speaker 2: were so mad at him for doing a what was
Speaker 2: it a spending bill or something like that. That needed
Speaker 2: to be done. The fact that he cooperated with with
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is a mortal sin in the in the
Speaker 2: eyes of a lot of Democrats. So Schumer knows that,
Speaker 2: and he doesn't want to look like he's cooperating in
Speaker 2: any way, shape or form. However, on the other side,
Speaker 2: so the Democrats are looking at and going, this is
Speaker 2: all about healthcare, and healthcare for whether it has illegals
Speaker 2: or not illegals. It's about Medicaid. It's the cuts that
Speaker 2: the government passed on the big beautiful bill that they
Speaker 2: were going to be reforming Medicaid to the point where
Speaker 2: it's like their reformed welfare back in the Clinton administration.
Speaker 2: They said, look at you are still on medicaid if
Speaker 2: you are disabled, elderly, a poverty line, all that except
Speaker 2: for if you are an able bodied mail with no dependents.
Speaker 2: You got to go get a job. You can't just
Speaker 2: keep collecting free medical. And if you're here illegally, you
Speaker 2: can't collect free medical. So that's what they said, We're
Speaker 2: not going to allow that after December thirty first of
Speaker 2: this year. The Democrats are using this as their last
Speaker 2: lever to try to get that back in. It's a
Speaker 2: one and a half trillion dollar cost. And yet here's
Speaker 2: the problem with it. I at this and say this
Speaker 2: is fiscally makes all the sense in the world to
Speaker 2: cut off people who are able bodied, young men who
Speaker 2: are just being lazy, Go get a job, or we're
Speaker 2: not going to keep giving you free medical. And I
Speaker 2: don't want to give free medical to the immigrants. I
Speaker 2: could play a clip for you. I saw it the
Speaker 2: other day of Hillary Clinton, I don't know twenty years ago,
Speaker 2: was railing about no free medical for people that come
Speaker 2: into our country illegally. So it's all about politics. But
Speaker 2: at this point, here's the problem. I've talked about this before.
Speaker 2: Whenever there's a poll about you want to tax the rich,
Speaker 2: it always is sixty some percent of the population says yes.
Speaker 2: It's very popular. People like to tax the rich because
Speaker 2: they don't think it's them. It's the same with this.
Speaker 2: People have a soft spot for fellow citizens and even
Speaker 2: for illegals, believe it or not, and they don't want
Speaker 2: to take medical insurance away from these people. Why that's
Speaker 2: just mean. And so front page of the Wall Street
Speaker 2: Journal today, white House senses political risk on healthcare despite
Speaker 2: shut down Bravado. So, according to the Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 2: Trump aids are discussing proposals to extend those Obamacare subsidies
Speaker 2: on which millions of Americans rely. It's about two million people.
Speaker 2: And so you go out and you survey this, and
Speaker 2: you find out that people are going you know, I know,
Speaker 2: I know about the illeg That doesn't make sense to me,
Speaker 2: But I don't want to take healthcare away from anybody.
Speaker 2: Fact Harry Enton over at Seas and the Statistician, his
Speaker 2: latest polls may surprise you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there are a lot of Republicans out
Speaker 4: there right now strutting around thinking.
Speaker 1: That they're cock of the walk. But here's the thing
Speaker 1: to keep in mind.
Speaker 4: Blame more for the twenty twenty five shutdown, hohod, Americans
Speaker 4: blame more. They blame Republicans The New York Times by
Speaker 4: seven points. They blame Republicans in Congress and Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Maris look at that, blame Trump and Republicans by twelve points.
Speaker 4: How about Washington Post by a seventeen point margin. When
Speaker 4: you look at the data, what you're actually seeing is
Speaker 4: that more Americans are blaming Republicans than Democrats, which I
Speaker 4: think really goes against the conventional wisdom because a lot
Speaker 4: of folks are saying, hey, Democrats are so divided, but
Speaker 4: at this particular point, Americans are placing the blame on
Speaker 4: the Republicans shoulders, at least the plurality of them are.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: This is what I think is so notable here is
Speaker 4: we can go back over time and this is actually
Speaker 4: a pretty familiar story.
Speaker 1: What are we talking about here? Blame more.
Speaker 4: At the start of shutdowns ninety five, ninety six, they
Speaker 4: blame the Republicans more by sixteen points. Twenty thirteen, blame
Speaker 4: the Republicans more by ten points, twenty eighteen, twenty now
Speaker 4: nineteen blame the Republicans more by fourteen points. And right now,
Speaker 4: on the average poll you see that the American public
Speaker 4: are blaming Republicans more by twelve points than Democrats. So
Speaker 4: this actually lines up with what we see in historically
Speaker 4: when the government goes in the shutdown, at least in
Speaker 4: prior occasions. On in this one, what we see is
Speaker 4: that more Americans are likely to blame Republicans than Democrats,
Speaker 4: which again is why the polling right now doesn't exactly
Speaker 4: strike me as surprising. Despite the fact that Democrats might
Speaker 4: be messy, Republicans are the ones who are getting more blamed,
Speaker 4: because that is what has happened, at least historically speaking,
Speaker 4: the Republicans are the ones who have the House, the Senate,
Speaker 4: and of course the presidents say, yeah, I think this
Speaker 4: is notable, right, I think there might be a lot
Speaker 4: of Republicans who would say, Okay, these are early days yet, right,
Speaker 4: this is early days yet. But what happens at the
Speaker 4: end of the shutdown, does in fact the blame change. Well,
Speaker 4: historically speaking, no, who gets the blame at the start
Speaker 4: of the shutdown has ended up being the ones who
Speaker 4: get the blame at the end of the shutdown ninety five,
Speaker 4: ninety six GOPGP, twenty thirteen GOPGP, twenty eighteen GOPGP.
Speaker 1: Look at early days yet, maybe a history will be
Speaker 1: bucked in this particular situation.
Speaker 4: But historically speaking, if you're being blamed at the start
Speaker 4: of a shutdown, you're getting blamed at the end of it.
Speaker 4: And right now it's Republicans who are being blamed at
Speaker 4: the start of this one. History ain't exactly too kind
Speaker 4: to those who are blamed at the start of shutdown.
Speaker 2: So the reality is is that historically people always blame
Speaker 2: the Republicans. It doesn't matter what the facts are, and
Speaker 2: so in this particular case, and then you throw in
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal talking about the fact that there
Speaker 2: are a number of people in the White House who
Speaker 2: are discussing proposals to try to figure out how to
Speaker 2: extend taxpayer subsidies for Obamacare insurance premiums. And that is
Speaker 2: something that somebody's got to give. And Wall Street Journal
Speaker 2: says that least the people in the White House are
Speaker 2: talking about, how can we do that without making our
Speaker 2: base mad at us? Well, it's the same with the Democrats.
Speaker 2: How can they do any business with Donald Trump unless
Speaker 2: they get their desire to keep doing the healthcare subsidies.
Speaker 2: And this is something that Democrats have had that desire
Speaker 2: for a very long period of time. They have wanted
Speaker 2: to have single payer, government only health insurance. And a
Speaker 2: lot of people in this country, including me, squawked about that.
Speaker 2: It's been tried in Canada, it's been tried in the UK,
Speaker 2: It's been tried in a lot of other countries. And
Speaker 2: wherever it's tried, the system goes is financially on the skids.
Speaker 2: They don't provide a lot of treatment for lots of
Speaker 2: the expensive illnesses, No they'll take care of you got
Speaker 2: a broken leg, fine, but if you've got some major
Speaker 2: disease that's going to take a lot of medical care
Speaker 2: and a lot of medicine. Uh, they just say, sorry,
Speaker 2: it doesn't work. So it's a terrible system. Is a
Speaker 2: socialist system, but that's what the Democrats have always wanted.
Speaker 2: Most people at the same time don't support the Democrats politically,
Speaker 2: but on this issue they are doing that soft hearted
Speaker 2: stuff I've seen over and over and over again, is
Speaker 2: they don't want to take away the health insurance premium
Speaker 2: for some dude that's sitting on his behind playing video
Speaker 2: games or whatever he's doing and not going to work.
Speaker 2: We give him free medical care, but they don't think
Speaker 2: of it that way. We'll see what happens from here,
Speaker 2: but stand by, because there's going to have to be
Speaker 2: somebody is going to have to blink. Kate Bedenfield is
Speaker 2: a Democrat spokeswoman. She's very good at spending things for
Speaker 2: the left. This is her take.
Speaker 5: On it, So I would say that, Look, it's no
Speaker 5: secret there is frustration among the Democratics with leadership of
Speaker 5: the Democratic Party. Some of that is just a function
Speaker 5: of the fact that Democrats don't control any of the
Speaker 5: levers of power right now in Washington, and that's incredibly
Speaker 5: frustrating for the base who is watching as Trump is
Speaker 5: doing things that they find abhorrent. So there is certainly
Speaker 5: some frustration. I will say though, that on this question
Speaker 5: of healthcare, and Pete was saying, this is the Democrats
Speaker 5: trying to drag the Republicans into their mess on healthcare.
Speaker 5: There is no stronger argument. There is no more popular
Speaker 5: argument that Democrats can make to the country than the
Speaker 5: one that they make about how they have made healthcare
Speaker 5: more affordable through Obamacare and beyond. It continues to be
Speaker 5: It was an issue that drove the twenty twenty race.
Speaker 5: It didn't have as much impact in the twenty twenty
Speaker 5: four race and the other things were going on, but
Speaker 5: this continues to be an issue where when Democrats can
Speaker 5: be talking about healthcare, they're in a strong they have
Speaker 5: the upper hand, they're in a strong position. So to
Speaker 5: see Senator Sanders congress on Nicasio Cortes doing a video
Speaker 5: like that that clarifies the issues so concisely for voters
Speaker 5: and reaches an audience of people who may not be
Speaker 5: paying attention to the back and forth everything that's going
Speaker 5: on in Washington is hugely valuable, and it's all part
Speaker 5: of a bigger, broader democratic effort. And you know, I would, really,
Speaker 5: I would counsel the Democrats to keep this fight focused
Speaker 5: on healthcare because it is a winner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, she says that's the winner. Keep beating the drum
Speaker 2: about healthcare and she thinks that they will win. She
Speaker 2: was talking about AOC and Bernie. They put out a
Speaker 2: video that's been seeing millions of times, and she thought
Speaker 2: that that was also very helpful.
Speaker 1: Here it is, well, there's nothing clean about it.
Speaker 5: This is one of the dirtiest tricks that has been
Speaker 5: pulled on the American people.
Speaker 6: Right now.
Speaker 5: Your monthly insurance premiums are going to double if.
Speaker 1: You don't have the money to go to Ada and
Speaker 1: you're sick your diet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you're a young, able body person who's
Speaker 2: been ripping off the system by getting free medical, you're
Speaker 2: going to have to pay a lot more than if
Speaker 2: you paid anything in the past. Pete set who is
Speaker 2: a spokesman for Republicans at this response.
Speaker 7: Well, Kate Kate was spot on. Republicans are speaking to
Speaker 7: their base, Democrats are speaking to their base. The Republican
Speaker 7: base wants to see them fight Democrats and stand firm,
Speaker 7: and the Democrat base wants to see them fight Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: And Republicans, well, there's a time and a place to
Speaker 7: debate and discuss healthcare, just like there's a time and
Speaker 7: a place to discuss immigration, or energy policy or education.
Speaker 7: But not when it comes to funding of the government
Speaker 7: and all the lives that are impacted by it. And
Speaker 7: those aren't my words, those are the words of Senator
Speaker 7: Chris Murphy from twenty thirteen. Democrats have always said that
Speaker 7: a clean cr should be passed and we shouldn't try
Speaker 7: Republicans shouldn't try to extract certain policy concessions during these debates,
Speaker 7: and yet that's exactly what Democrats are doing.
Speaker 6: We shouldn't even be having this conversation. A clean cr
Speaker 6: should have been passed. The Republican majority in the House
Speaker 6: of Representatives passed one. It's now in the Senate's court,
Speaker 6: and it likely will fail yet again later today because
Speaker 6: of Democrats and Transigents, because they want to drag Republicans
Speaker 6: into their healthcare mess. This is only happening because Democrats.
Speaker 6: Not a single Republican voted for Obamacare. The Affordable Care Act,
Speaker 6: which has never been affordable. We're still waiting fifteen years
Speaker 6: later for the affordability part of that and the subsidies
Speaker 6: that are being discussed. Again, not a single Republican has
Speaker 6: voted for those in the American Rescue Plan Act or
Speaker 6: the Inflation Reduction Act, So they're trying to drag Republicans
Speaker 6: into a mess that they themselves created.
Speaker 2: Well, he is right. This all stems on Obamacare, which
Speaker 2: was through some parliamentary tricks, was passed by Congress during
Speaker 2: the Obama administration. But it's never been popular. It's never
Speaker 2: been any sort of support from from the Republican side
Speaker 2: of the aisle. And so they really if I don't
Speaker 2: see the path for this. But what they really need
Speaker 2: to do is sit down and figure out healthcare in
Speaker 2: America because the Democrats want to pay for They wanted
Speaker 2: a one part of a one payer system, government only
Speaker 2: insurance that they will get rid of insurance health insurance
Speaker 2: companies and you have to deal with the government. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's the classic is how's that work for you at DMV.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a disaster in countries where they have that.
Speaker 2: So that's where it stands at this late gent of
Speaker 2: that your eye, I don't see the solution. But my
Speaker 2: eyes did perk up when I saw the Wall Street
Speaker 2: Journal saying, yeah, their work on maybe some sort of
Speaker 2: way to have some sort of health insurance subsidies from
Speaker 2: the Republicans. And I don't like it. I don't like
Speaker 2: it at all. But somebody's going to blink. And at
Speaker 2: this point Wall Street Journal says, the Republicans are kind
Speaker 2: of working on that. Timberly Strassel, she writes an op
Speaker 2: ed column for the Wall Street Journal, and well, this
Speaker 2: is what she had to say.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 9: So this is the thing that I think is the
Speaker 9: most interesting dynamic because if you look in beginning, all
Speaker 9: the pressure was on Chuck Schumer, right, this was a
Speaker 9: test of whether or not he had backbone.
Speaker 10: And the way I.
Speaker 9: Would have thought that this might have ended is that
Speaker 9: as you had more votes progressively, more Democrats, especially moderates,
Speaker 9: would join along sort of take the heat off of
Speaker 9: Chuck Schumer. They'd take it instead until you got to
Speaker 9: that magic number and it opened again. But with these
Speaker 9: activist groups now making this a litmus test for all
Speaker 9: the members, it's going to be much tougher for them
Speaker 9: to jump across the Aisle. I would look maybe for
Speaker 9: a Jean Shaheen or a Gary Peters because they're retiring.
Speaker 9: But if you're a member who wants to run for reelection,
Speaker 9: the message is being sent if you vote with Republicans,
Speaker 9: you will get a primary.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the threat is on Democrats better not do
Speaker 2: anything to help the Republicans and don't do any business
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump. So they're threatening their own people. One
Speaker 2: other item that's unrelated coming out of the White House
Speaker 2: today is well, it'll actually be on Tuesday. We're finding
Speaker 2: out is the Chinese talking about trade. The Chinese have
Speaker 2: cut off purchasing soybeans from American farmers, and they've always
Speaker 2: bought a ton of soybeans from US farmers. So because
Speaker 2: China has cut off US farmers, apparently, according again this
Speaker 2: is Wall Street Journal again that they've got a lot
Speaker 2: of their reporting, the President's considering providing ten billion dollars
Speaker 2: in aid to US farmers because of the economic fallout
Speaker 2: from the tariffs that are blocking China from buying any
Speaker 2: of the of the soybeans. So senior Administration official that
Speaker 2: the discussions have centered on ten to fourteen billion in aid.
Speaker 2: It would likely go toward helping soybean producers as well
Speaker 2: as other parts of the farm economy. Scott Besant, the
Speaker 2: Treasurer Secretary, was talking about the fact that we should
Speaker 2: hear some news on this on Tuesday.
Speaker 8: There's plenty the president can do, and it's unfortunate the
Speaker 8: Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean
Speaker 8: farmers in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the
Speaker 8: trade negotiations. And American farmers over willingly voted for President
Speaker 8: Trump more than ninety percent.
Speaker 1: He loves the farmers. He loves them.
Speaker 8: We have great Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rawins. Three of
Speaker 8: us were in the Oval yesterday and you should expect
Speaker 8: some news on Tuesday on substantial report or substantial support
Speaker 8: for our farmers, especially the soybean farmers. They've had President
Speaker 8: Trump's back and we've got their back.
Speaker 2: There's some of the damage that's been done so far.
Speaker 2: From January through August of this year, our soybean exports
Speaker 2: to China totaled just over two hundred million bushels. That's
Speaker 2: down one billion bushels from the same time last year.
Speaker 2: According to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Meantime, the Chinese
Speaker 2: are doing business with Brazil. Brazil has shipped more than
Speaker 2: two billion bushels of soybeans to China during this exact time.
Speaker 2: So China obviously sticks to the US farmer for very
Speaker 2: strategic reasons, and President Trump says I will write checks
Speaker 2: to the farmers to keep them going. Meantime, the President,
Speaker 2: President She and President Trump will be meeting at a
Speaker 2: conference in South Korea in about four weeks. President Trump
Speaker 2: said that's obviously going to be one of the topics
Speaker 2: that he is bringing up. So since it's Friday, let's
Speaker 2: do a little financial Friday talk here. I've been very
Speaker 2: bullish on AI. I just think it is the future
Speaker 2: and it's just going to be bigger as we go along.
Speaker 2: But there's people also going, oh my, it has really
Speaker 2: become a lot of the darling. A lot of billions
Speaker 2: of dollars are being thrown at it, and companies are
Speaker 2: spending a lot of time trying to build as many
Speaker 2: data centers as they can because they need lots of
Speaker 2: energy in order to fund to supply to those data centers,
Speaker 2: so they work. So Austin Gouldsby, who is now one
Speaker 2: of the FED members was asked about AI and his
Speaker 2: view as a member of the Federal Reserve Board what
Speaker 2: his thoughts are, and you can tell from his comments
Speaker 2: that he thinks it just maybe be in a bubble.
Speaker 11: If you look at data centers, they're booming. We should
Speaker 11: think about what happens if the growth rate of AI
Speaker 11: is not as large as the as its biggest proponents think.
Speaker 11: Might we get over our skis a bit with over
Speaker 11: investment and have to clean up if there were a bubble.
Speaker 1: I think we do want to think about that topic.
Speaker 1: I like Austin.
Speaker 2: I think he's a smart guy, but that is he
Speaker 2: was an economic professor before he went on to the
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve Board, and the Federal Reserve Board, as we
Speaker 2: all know, is very cautious. They got yellow lights flashing
Speaker 2: on everything. They're afraid of their own shadow. So he's
Speaker 2: not a tech executive, not in the slightest and the
Speaker 2: tech executives are much more prone to take risks. They
Speaker 2: were talking about it this morning with Jim Kramer on
Speaker 2: CNBC and Kramer, well, I'll let him speak for himself.
Speaker 10: I think a lot it is.
Speaker 12: I think that, by the way, there's big competitionally you
Speaker 12: didn't talk about China.
Speaker 10: China is one from one with us so far, so
Speaker 10: people say they'rehead of us.
Speaker 12: Look, I think it's firm buying because if it's a
Speaker 12: fourth Industrial Revolution, then you need all the power you
Speaker 12: can get unless you have quantum. I was grew article
Speaker 12: in the Harvard Crimson Ball places saying that quantum is
Speaker 12: beginning to work longer. They've done a lot of work
Speaker 12: on it. All the quantum stocks are trading up. I
Speaker 12: come back and say, I'm not worried about a glide.
Speaker 12: I'm worried about being behind the ruck, being behind the Chinese.
Speaker 12: I don't want to fall.
Speaker 10: Behind the Chinese.
Speaker 12: And I think said, the only way we can do
Speaker 12: it is it's not there's no Manhattan Project in the country.
Speaker 10: The project is uh is met Uh.
Speaker 12: The project is by the way, I would say, the
Speaker 12: number one person right now, we don't talk about it.
Speaker 10: I'm nothing is certainly in the news.
Speaker 1: Again.
Speaker 10: This is Elon.
Speaker 12: I mean when you speak to Jensen, he talks about Elon,
Speaker 12: He talks about Mark Well first, Nate, he calls him Zuck. Elon,
Speaker 12: Zukh and Sacha are the three that feel it's the
Speaker 12: most important to build out I've only met.
Speaker 10: I met Sacha, I've met Mark.
Speaker 12: To think that they could be wrong requires a big
Speaker 12: leap of faith because they've been other than Jensen Preps,
Speaker 12: the smartest people during the whole era. So I'm not
Speaker 12: buying it.
Speaker 6: So you think the radar of management and aggregate this
Speaker 6: time is better than what we had in the in
Speaker 6: the dot com era.
Speaker 12: Look, I mean the dot com I mean someone was
Speaker 12: mentioning that the other day, Well it was it was
Speaker 12: the Nortel deal. Well, no, I mean those companies, the
Speaker 12: companies that were buying, uh, all the internet equipment we're
Speaker 12: all doing. There are a lot more doing vendor finances.
Speaker 12: This That's why I was worried by the way about
Speaker 12: the Lands deal, because that smelled of vendor financing. But
Speaker 12: I know that the demand, as we've been seeing from
Speaker 12: Opening Eye is incredible. They're beginning to roll out real
Speaker 12: connors and the products are so in need, and they're
Speaker 12: doing a video product and everyone's so buzzing about their
Speaker 12: video products.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I'm not always in a good way.
Speaker 12: No, not always in a good way. But I'm not
Speaker 12: worried about a glut. I am worried that we don't
Speaker 12: have enough power to be able to build everything we'd
Speaker 12: like to the g IP deal today Blackrock the Lady
Speaker 12: shows that there are people again Larry Thing, that are
Speaker 12: saying we need more power.
Speaker 10: Look, maybe the economists.
Speaker 12: Are wrong, and the people who are are maybe they're right,
Speaker 12: and the people who are using in our room. But
Speaker 12: you know, Coral, I've studied these guys now wait a Sunday,
Speaker 12: and they all have incredible demand, and so they have
Speaker 12: to meet the demand.
Speaker 10: I just I just can't better get. I can't better get.
Speaker 10: I mean time I've ever tried to call these guys
Speaker 10: wall I had.
Speaker 2: Looked so dopey. Yeah, I'm not going there. Yeah, the
Speaker 2: Cramer laid it out pretty clearly. Who do you think
Speaker 2: is right? Who do you think is wrong? The economists
Speaker 2: or the people that are running some of the major
Speaker 2: technology firms in the world, And they have been so
Speaker 2: right for so long, and they're extremely smart people versus
Speaker 2: university economists or economists sitting on the Federal Reserve Board.
Speaker 2: And I'm with Kramer. I'll go with I'll go with
Speaker 2: the people that are running the tech sector speaking. But
Speaker 2: back to Austin, he is an economist and he's on
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve, and today, first Friday of the month,
Speaker 2: no jobs report came out, and so the big question
Speaker 2: for Austin Gouldsby was what are you going to do?
Speaker 2: What are you gonna do without a jobs report.
Speaker 11: Here's what he said, Chicago FED not because we knew
Speaker 11: there was going to be a government shutdown, we didn't,
Speaker 11: but because we've been trying to get better real time
Speaker 11: measures of what's happening in the job market. We've recently
Speaker 11: rolled out the Chicago FED Labor Market Indicators, and one
Speaker 11: of those indicators and we turn to eleven different data sources.
Speaker 1: We take the.
Speaker 11: Official data plus high quality private sector sources, and one
Speaker 11: of the numbers that we keep is a real time
Speaker 11: estimate of what will be the unemployment rate. So, barring
Speaker 11: getting an actual unemployment rate, we released yesterday that the
Speaker 11: unemployment rate would have been announced to be four point
Speaker 11: three percent, that is unchanged. There's no question the best
Speaker 11: jobs data in the world come from the Bureau of
Speaker 11: Labor Statistics. We need that data. We want that data.
Speaker 11: We can use what we have, which are private sector sources.
Speaker 11: We can look at the state unemployment claims and plug
Speaker 11: those into the formula. Over time exactly as you say, Steve,
Speaker 11: it's going to get farther and farther from the truth.
Speaker 11: Even the private sector sources rely on the BLS data
Speaker 11: to kind of normalize and make their samples representative. But
Speaker 11: we fight with the army we have, and at moments
Speaker 11: like this where it's critically important that we're figuring out
Speaker 11: whether the economy is in a moment of transition, this
Speaker 11: is what we have and thus far it still continues
Speaker 11: to point to a pretty stable labor.
Speaker 1: Market in my view.
Speaker 11: You know that Paul Volger used to tell me our
Speaker 11: job that the FED is to act and the market's
Speaker 11: job is to react.
Speaker 1: And let's not get the order mixed up.
Speaker 11: So what the market expects is not in the fed's mandate.
Speaker 1: What should be.
Speaker 11: In the decision of the FED are the economic conditions
Speaker 11: on employment and inflation. That raises the degree of difficulty
Speaker 11: when we cover up one of the eyes or put
Speaker 11: a screen where you can't see the data. I think
Speaker 11: everyone on the FOMC has to come to their own
Speaker 11: determination of what does it mean for the trajectory. As
Speaker 11: you know, before we got into some of the dust
Speaker 11: in the air, I believe that the underlying economy can
Speaker 11: afford rates can afford to come down over time in
Speaker 11: a gradual basis a fair amount from where they are now.
Speaker 11: But this uptick of inflation that we've been seeing, coupled
Speaker 11: with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating, have put the
Speaker 11: Central Bank in a bit of a sticky spot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so they don't know what to do raise race,
Speaker 2: lower rates. Austin basically said he thinks race should go
Speaker 2: lower over time. So that's good. But they're very, very
Speaker 2: very cautious, and they do. They're in a pickle, There's
Speaker 2: no question about it. So let's get some emails in
Speaker 2: before we get too far on this podcast. Today I
Speaker 2: got Brian Demattio sends me an email, says about Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: He says, please don't encourage her in her fake success.
Speaker 2: She campaigned at abortion clinics in Michigan, for instance, as
Speaker 2: a solution to our country's issues. There is still nothing
Speaker 2: of substance underneath the hat, even if she surpasses Elon
Speaker 2: in total wealth. Brian in Northern Michigan, listen, I got
Speaker 2: to say this again. I was going on about how
Speaker 2: her book sales are to the moon. She's selling books
Speaker 2: like crazy and people are buying the tickets to her
Speaker 2: book tour, so she's going to make a lot of money.
Speaker 2: And I'm looking at it and going, I'm thinking that
Speaker 2: this might be the kind of message that she thinks
Speaker 2: people love her. And I'm going she has failed miserably
Speaker 2: as a candidate now a couple different times. And so
Speaker 2: I hear you, Brian. I'm not a supporter of Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris in any way, shape or form, but you know what,
Speaker 2: I hope she runs. I hope she's the Democrat nominee.
Speaker 2: I mean, seriously, if Republicans should be cheering her on
Speaker 2: because I don't know who the Republican nominee is going
Speaker 2: to be, but whoever, they should be able to run
Speaker 2: circles around Kamala Harris in twenty twenty eight if she
Speaker 2: decides to run. He also sent me a note about
Speaker 2: Barry Weiss has been named the editor in chief of
Speaker 2: CBS News and Barry Weiss was with the New York
Speaker 2: Times and she got into a fractue with them about
Speaker 2: their reporting that was one sided. So she started the
Speaker 2: Free Press. He's very free press, very independent woman who
Speaker 2: is excellent, so good for her. Penny has a whole
Speaker 2: bunch of different thoughts on things. She said, question of
Speaker 2: the day, when the State of California shuts down, the
Speaker 2: electronic pay transfer for state workers are all paid through
Speaker 2: a local credit union, so there is no loss of
Speaker 2: pay due to the State of California workers when the
Speaker 2: state shuts down. Does this apply to federal workers? No, No,
Speaker 2: they don't. They don't have anything like that. And she
Speaker 2: said that editorial comment no work, no pay, that phrase
Speaker 2: should include workers too. Where where do these quacks and
Speaker 2: criminals and non competent politicians come from? Do any of
Speaker 2: them ever really graduate high school? Or are they primarily
Speaker 2: a bunch of participation folks who qulinn't test out, have
Speaker 2: never grown up or assumed any real responsibility. So it's oh.
Speaker 2: And then finally, Wayne In always was against any form
Speaker 2: of federal healthcare, even in the beginning with Medicare. The
Speaker 2: biggest file that we have in our tax collection each
Speaker 2: year is our medical file. Yeah, I'm, i'm what happened
Speaker 2: to the day's medical care has become more expensive and
Speaker 2: more complicated because of the government's involvement. There's no question
Speaker 2: about it. And Eaglestorm sends me an email about California
Speaker 2: has passed a bill to censor and outlaw wrong think
Speaker 2: on social media. Well that's I'm sorry, that violates the
Speaker 2: First Amendment. So apparently the legislature in California passed this
Speaker 2: bill of enacting hate speech code to well what does
Speaker 2: it say if signed? Governor hasn't signed. Prosecutors would be
Speaker 2: empowered to hit Facebook, Instagram, TikTok x and the like
Speaker 2: with million dollar fines whenever they permit a user to
Speaker 2: mock someone's race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, immigration status, or
Speaker 2: other protected characteristics. They're doing that in England. They're arresting
Speaker 2: people in England. They don't have a First Amendment in England.
Speaker 2: So California is following basically up on what the British
Speaker 2: have been doing. Meantime, all of this boils down to
Speaker 2: the market today, and with all the troubles with the
Speaker 2: government and the fact that they're shut down and the
Speaker 2: fact that we've got all kinds of problems with the
Speaker 2: Middle East, Wall Street still keeps going and they went
Speaker 2: higher in a big way today, all kinds of big
Speaker 2: new records of Wall Street. The Dow up today two
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty eight points to a new record forty
Speaker 2: six thousand and seven fifty eight the s and P
Speaker 2: first time it's been above sixty seven hundred sixty seven fifteen.
Speaker 2: That's the only a one point gain. Then the Nasdak
Speaker 2: actually was higher, but it fell back sixty three points,
Speaker 2: so not much of a change there. Gold up forty
Speaker 2: four dollars above thirty nine hundred it's a three thoy
Speaker 2: nine hundred and twelve for one ounce of gold. And
Speaker 2: oil mostly bouncing around the same neighborhood up twenty some
Speaker 2: cents today, just about sixty one dollars for a barrel
Speaker 2: of oil. That is it for us today. Had yourself
Speaker 2: a wonderful weekend. We will be back on Monday and
Speaker 2: hope to see you then