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<v Speaker 1>And here we go.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast. It

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<v Speaker 2>is Friday, today is the third day of October. You're

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<v Speaker 2>of our word twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan.

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<v Speaker 2>And well we're just we're just getting word that apparently

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<v Speaker 2>there is Hamas has responded to the plan to basically

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<v Speaker 2>come to an agreement. Everybody in the Middle East, Israel, Egypt,

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<v Speaker 2>you name it, the Arab country have all said yes

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<v Speaker 2>to the agreement that was put together by President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>sent over Benjamin Netta, who said, we agree to it.

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<v Speaker 2>And so now we were just waiting for Hamas, and

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<v Speaker 2>what we're learning is that Hamas has said that they

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<v Speaker 2>have agreed to release all of the Israeli hostages held

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza, as well as the bodies of those who

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<v Speaker 2>have died. They also said that they would release the

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<v Speaker 2>hostages according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump's proposal,

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<v Speaker 2>as long as the field conditions for the exchange are met.

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<v Speaker 2>So you can see I'm reading from the agreement and

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<v Speaker 2>you can see there's already some caveats that that they're

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<v Speaker 2>putting in this, but it's it's movement in the right direction.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me get some more of this, it says, in

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<v Speaker 2>this context, the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter

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<v Speaker 2>into negotiations through the mediator to discuss these details. So

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<v Speaker 2>they also said that they have agreed to hand over

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<v Speaker 2>the administration of the Gaza strip to a Palestinian body

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<v Speaker 2>of independent technocrats based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab

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<v Speaker 2>and Islamic support. So again a few more caveats on

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<v Speaker 2>in there, but still moving in the right direction. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's not clear from the language if they've agreed to

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<v Speaker 2>the stipulation in the proposal that called for the group

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<v Speaker 2>to be barred from exercising political power in the Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>in the future, or if it sees itself amosis as

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<v Speaker 2>a member of this body of Palestinian technocrats. So the

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<v Speaker 2>question is whether Hamas's response will satisfy not only President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump but also Israel. They did not address key elements

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<v Speaker 2>of the proposal of the twenty point plan that Trump

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<v Speaker 2>had put together that called on the group to give

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<v Speaker 2>up its arms, and they also did not address the

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<v Speaker 2>offer of amnesty to its members who commit to coexistence.

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<v Speaker 2>So all of this President came out about the same time.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure if it was in response to this

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<v Speaker 2>or it just coincidental, but the President said all of

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<v Speaker 2>this has to be agreed to. This agreement has to

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<v Speaker 2>be made by six o'clock six pm Eastern time on Sunday.

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<v Speaker 2>So we now have from the time we're recording this

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<v Speaker 2>basically two days forty eight hours for them to come

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<v Speaker 2>to an agreement. He says, we're all hell will break loose. Oh,

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<v Speaker 2>they made some movement. This is the biggest movement that

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<v Speaker 2>I think I've seen in all of this earlier today,

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<v Speaker 2>this is before this agreement from Hamas General Keane was

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<v Speaker 2>asked about all of this.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get his take of all.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't reject it out out of hand. Ye immediately.

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<v Speaker 3>They may be. The likely thing is they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>counter with something that they want to negotiate over and remove.

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<v Speaker 1>That would be a good one.

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<v Speaker 3>Listen, if they're going to fold their hands here and

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<v Speaker 3>continue to fight, Netaw is very clear and he's got

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<v Speaker 3>the President's support for it. He's going to go in

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<v Speaker 3>there and finish it. And they've got them completely surrounded.

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<v Speaker 3>They moved close to a million people out of Gaza

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<v Speaker 3>City and it's really quite remarkable. So what is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be left is largely Hamas and those that are

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<v Speaker 3>supporting Hamas, and they will go in there and systematically

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<v Speaker 3>deal with them. Now, it will take time. This isn't

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<v Speaker 3>going to end in just a couple of weeks. It'll

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<v Speaker 3>take some months. I'll take some patience, that is the objective.

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<v Speaker 3>But now I support them completely on this. He's clear eyed.

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<v Speaker 3>He's got to finish these guys once and for all.

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<v Speaker 3>This it's fiction. When people say, well, this is an

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<v Speaker 3>ideology and you can't defeat it, that's nonsense. We defeated

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<v Speaker 3>the al Qaeda summarily in Iraq. These are guys with guns,

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<v Speaker 3>and if you want to defeat them, you do what

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<v Speaker 3>and you take their guns away and you kill them.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So that was before this announcement. But Hamas obviously

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<v Speaker 2>again the deadline is six pm Eastern Time on Sunday.

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<v Speaker 2>And again this is the early reports that are coming in.

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<v Speaker 2>But the President has again issued a Sunday evening deadline

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<v Speaker 2>for Hamas to agree to his peace plan. And they

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<v Speaker 2>did not have an immediate comment to the statement released

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<v Speaker 2>by the Palestinian Group Byjmas. So there it looks like

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<v Speaker 2>the White House is reviewing it, but there's still a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of copy and a lot of we need to

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<v Speaker 2>negotiate and going on.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll see.

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<v Speaker 2>It's awfully hard to do breaking news with a podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>but I thought it was pretty important of what has

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<v Speaker 2>happened here on this Friday. Meantime, speaking a general team,

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<v Speaker 2>there's other things that he talked about as well. One

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<v Speaker 2>of them was the fact that we are now militarily

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<v Speaker 2>going around and attacking drug boats that are coming from

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<v Speaker 2>Latin America. And he was asked about the idea of

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<v Speaker 2>us basically using kinetic force of our military regarding the

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<v Speaker 2>drug lords.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well, it's obvious to cartel's weaponizing drugs for their

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<v Speaker 3>own Profitearian for sure, it's onder mining American society. The

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<v Speaker 3>health and welfare of our society has been seriously penetrated.

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<v Speaker 3>Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed by friends

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<v Speaker 3>and alan. The approach we've been taken, not we're working.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is an approach. It's different to be sure,

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<v Speaker 3>we've stopped these boats in the past, but they keep coming.

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<v Speaker 3>Now we're shooting the boats and it's likely they're going

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<v Speaker 3>to stop coming. The President, i think, is notifying Congress

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<v Speaker 3>that he defines this as armed conflict, which legally then

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<v Speaker 3>gives him the authority to treat it not just as

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<v Speaker 3>a law enforcement and aggressive policing where there's no threat

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<v Speaker 3>to the police. Here, even though there's no threat to

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<v Speaker 3>an armed military force, they can use that lethal force

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<v Speaker 3>against them, even though there's no direct threat to them,

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<v Speaker 3>because why it's an armed conflict. Distinction is important. I

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<v Speaker 3>think this will get discussed among the lawyers. Are something

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<v Speaker 3>going to get discussed among the Congress in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>the legalities here. I'm not an expert on the legalities,

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<v Speaker 3>but I do know what right looks like, and doing

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<v Speaker 3>this makes sense to me.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, So General Kean, I mean, he was very

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<v Speaker 2>clear he thinks this makes sense that they are an

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<v Speaker 2>enemy and that they're killing Americans with their drugs. And

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<v Speaker 2>I know there's another whole discussion about the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>the demand by Americans for drugs versus the supply by

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<v Speaker 2>the cartel, But at this point General Keen is throwing

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<v Speaker 2>his hat in the ring and saying I support it.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll let the lawyers fight out whatever. It's going to

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<v Speaker 2>go to the courts, obviously. And then the third topic

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<v Speaker 2>that General Keen talked about today is asked about Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>and what are we going to do about Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's the general and listen.

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine has been doing great work with the system in

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<v Speaker 3>the United States back in April. They've been on to

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<v Speaker 3>systematically hit oil capabilities inside of Russia and now there's

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<v Speaker 3>distribution problems and gas lines that we're seeing in some

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<v Speaker 3>of the major cities in Russia. As a result of that,

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<v Speaker 3>the President has opened the aperture than wider to use

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<v Speaker 3>all of our long range offensive systems and is more

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<v Speaker 3>coming and the United States Targeting Cell will assist the

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<v Speaker 3>Ukrainians in reaching that. Russia and what's inside of Russia

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<v Speaker 3>should not be a sanctuary, so where they can sustain,

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<v Speaker 3>No sanctuary should exist in Russia. And what they have

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<v Speaker 3>done as a result that the fact think about they

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<v Speaker 3>don't have to defend anything in Russia, military logistics, infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 3>they're oil capability, which sustains an army on the field,

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<v Speaker 3>not just a population inside of Russia. And yes, the

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<v Speaker 3>entire energy infrastructure, the industrial base should all be targets.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we want to after Germany's industrial based, Japan's

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<v Speaker 3>industrial base while we are also fighting frontline troops. This

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<v Speaker 3>has been denied Ukraine to do it comprehensively. The administration

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<v Speaker 3>is taking off all the restriction and letting them go forward,

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<v Speaker 3>and our targeting cell provides them exquisite intelligence. So our

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<v Speaker 3>audience understands this isn't something new. We've been providing intelligence

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<v Speaker 3>to the Ukrainians from the outset and it's very, very good.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll talking about a big change from the President. He

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<v Speaker 2>sounded like he wasn't all that thrilled to support Zelensky

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<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine, and now they're talking about long range missiles

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<v Speaker 2>which will really change the balance of that war tremendously.

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<v Speaker 2>Another breaking news item as we're recording the podcast on

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<v Speaker 2>this Friday, is Sean ditty Combs at the Federal or

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<v Speaker 2>at the New York Courthouse in Lower Manhattan, and they've

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<v Speaker 2>been having a sentencing hearing all day and just moments ago. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>the prosecutor wanted eleven years sentence for Shawn ditty Combs.

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<v Speaker 2>His defense lawyers wanted fourteen months. He's been in jail

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<v Speaker 2>for thirteen so basically it would be just about time served. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>the judge just handed it down and said four years

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<v Speaker 2>and two months is what the sentence is. Months he's

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<v Speaker 2>served thirteen of those, so about a little more than

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<v Speaker 2>three years more for Sean Diddy Combs to hang out

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<v Speaker 2>in jail. So that is the sentence on him. Remember,

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<v Speaker 2>he was acquitted of all the major charges against him,

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<v Speaker 2>the Rico charges and all that, so the judge sentenced

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<v Speaker 2>him solely on the two counts that he was found

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<v Speaker 2>guilty of transportation for prostitution, two counts on that, so

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<v Speaker 2>that he gets four years two months minus thirteen that

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<v Speaker 2>he's already served. So that's for Sean Diddy Puff Daddy

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<v Speaker 2>Combs out of the courthouse today in Lower New York.

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<v Speaker 2>I do need to get to the government shutdown because

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<v Speaker 2>there are some things going on behind the scenes. First

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<v Speaker 2>of all, if you listen to conservative media, you will

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<v Speaker 2>find that the Republicans have open and shutcase. They offered

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<v Speaker 2>a just kick the can down the road until the

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<v Speaker 2>third week of November. That's the clean continuing resolution. No

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<v Speaker 2>big deal, why don't you sign this thing? And if

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<v Speaker 2>you and and and it's and then and then the

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<v Speaker 2>conservative media will will point out that this is all

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<v Speaker 2>about Chuck Schumer, and Schumer is afraid because the Democrats

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<v Speaker 2>were so mad at him for doing a what was

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<v Speaker 2>it a spending bill or something like that. That needed

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<v Speaker 2>to be done. The fact that he cooperated with with

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is a mortal sin in the in the

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<v Speaker 2>eyes of a lot of Democrats. So Schumer knows that,

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<v Speaker 2>and he doesn't want to look like he's cooperating in

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<v Speaker 2>any way, shape or form. However, on the other side,

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<v Speaker 2>so the Democrats are looking at and going, this is

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<v Speaker 2>all about healthcare, and healthcare for whether it has illegals

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<v Speaker 2>or not illegals. It's about Medicaid. It's the cuts that

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<v Speaker 2>the government passed on the big beautiful bill that they

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<v Speaker 2>were going to be reforming Medicaid to the point where

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<v Speaker 2>it's like their reformed welfare back in the Clinton administration.

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<v Speaker 2>They said, look at you are still on medicaid if

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<v Speaker 2>you are disabled, elderly, a poverty line, all that except

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<v Speaker 2>for if you are an able bodied mail with no dependents.

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<v Speaker 2>You got to go get a job. You can't just

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<v Speaker 2>keep collecting free medical. And if you're here illegally, you

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<v Speaker 2>can't collect free medical. So that's what they said, We're

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<v Speaker 2>not going to allow that after December thirty first of

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<v Speaker 2>this year. The Democrats are using this as their last

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<v Speaker 2>lever to try to get that back in. It's a

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<v Speaker 2>one and a half trillion dollar cost. And yet here's

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<v Speaker 2>the problem with it. I at this and say this

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<v Speaker 2>is fiscally makes all the sense in the world to

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<v Speaker 2>cut off people who are able bodied, young men who

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<v Speaker 2>are just being lazy, Go get a job, or we're

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<v Speaker 2>not going to keep giving you free medical. And I

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to give free medical to the immigrants. I

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<v Speaker 2>could play a clip for you. I saw it the

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<v Speaker 2>other day of Hillary Clinton, I don't know twenty years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>was railing about no free medical for people that come

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<v Speaker 2>into our country illegally. So it's all about politics. But

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<v Speaker 2>at this point, here's the problem. I've talked about this before.

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<v Speaker 2>Whenever there's a poll about you want to tax the rich,

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<v Speaker 2>it always is sixty some percent of the population says yes.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very popular. People like to tax the rich because

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<v Speaker 2>they don't think it's them. It's the same with this.

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<v Speaker 2>People have a soft spot for fellow citizens and even

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<v Speaker 2>for illegals, believe it or not, and they don't want

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<v Speaker 2>to take medical insurance away from these people. Why that's

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<v Speaker 2>just mean. And so front page of the Wall Street

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<v Speaker 2>Journal today, white House senses political risk on healthcare despite

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<v Speaker 2>shut down Bravado. So, according to the Wall Street Journal,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump aids are discussing proposals to extend those Obamacare subsidies

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<v Speaker 2>on which millions of Americans rely. It's about two million people.

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<v Speaker 2>And so you go out and you survey this, and

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<v Speaker 2>you find out that people are going you know, I know,

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<v Speaker 2>I know about the illeg That doesn't make sense to me,

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<v Speaker 2>But I don't want to take healthcare away from anybody.

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<v Speaker 2>Fact Harry Enton over at Seas and the Statistician, his

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<v Speaker 2>latest polls may surprise you.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think there are a lot of Republicans out

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<v Speaker 4>there right now strutting around thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>That they're cock of the walk. But here's the thing

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<v Speaker 1>to keep in mind.

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<v Speaker 4>Blame more for the twenty twenty five shutdown, hohod, Americans

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<v Speaker 4>blame more. They blame Republicans The New York Times by

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<v Speaker 4>seven points. They blame Republicans in Congress and Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 4>Maris look at that, blame Trump and Republicans by twelve points.

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<v Speaker 4>How about Washington Post by a seventeen point margin. When

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<v Speaker 4>you look at the data, what you're actually seeing is

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<v Speaker 4>that more Americans are blaming Republicans than Democrats, which I

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<v Speaker 4>think really goes against the conventional wisdom because a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of folks are saying, hey, Democrats are so divided, but

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<v Speaker 4>at this particular point, Americans are placing the blame on

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<v Speaker 4>the Republicans shoulders, at least the plurality of them are.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>This is what I think is so notable here is

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<v Speaker 4>we can go back over time and this is actually

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<v Speaker 4>a pretty familiar story.

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<v Speaker 1>What are we talking about here? Blame more.

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<v Speaker 4>At the start of shutdowns ninety five, ninety six, they

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<v Speaker 4>blame the Republicans more by sixteen points. Twenty thirteen, blame

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<v Speaker 4>the Republicans more by ten points, twenty eighteen, twenty now

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<v Speaker 4>nineteen blame the Republicans more by fourteen points. And right now,

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<v Speaker 4>on the average poll you see that the American public

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<v Speaker 4>are blaming Republicans more by twelve points than Democrats. So

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<v Speaker 4>this actually lines up with what we see in historically

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<v Speaker 4>when the government goes in the shutdown, at least in

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<v Speaker 4>prior occasions. On in this one, what we see is

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<v Speaker 4>that more Americans are likely to blame Republicans than Democrats,

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<v Speaker 4>which again is why the polling right now doesn't exactly

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<v Speaker 4>strike me as surprising. Despite the fact that Democrats might

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<v Speaker 4>be messy, Republicans are the ones who are getting more blamed,

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<v Speaker 4>because that is what has happened, at least historically speaking,

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<v Speaker 4>the Republicans are the ones who have the House, the Senate,

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<v Speaker 4>and of course the presidents say, yeah, I think this

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<v Speaker 4>is notable, right, I think there might be a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of Republicans who would say, Okay, these are early days yet, right,

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<v Speaker 4>this is early days yet. But what happens at the

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<v Speaker 4>end of the shutdown, does in fact the blame change. Well,

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<v Speaker 4>historically speaking, no, who gets the blame at the start

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<v Speaker 4>of the shutdown has ended up being the ones who

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<v Speaker 4>get the blame at the end of the shutdown ninety five,

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<v Speaker 4>ninety six GOPGP, twenty thirteen GOPGP, twenty eighteen GOPGP.

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<v Speaker 1>Look at early days yet, maybe a history will be

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<v Speaker 1>bucked in this particular situation.

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<v Speaker 4>But historically speaking, if you're being blamed at the start

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<v Speaker 4>of a shutdown, you're getting blamed at the end of it.

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<v Speaker 4>And right now it's Republicans who are being blamed at

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<v Speaker 4>the start of this one. History ain't exactly too kind

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<v Speaker 4>to those who are blamed at the start of shutdown.

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<v Speaker 2>So the reality is is that historically people always blame

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<v Speaker 2>the Republicans. It doesn't matter what the facts are, and

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<v Speaker 2>so in this particular case, and then you throw in

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<v Speaker 2>the Wall Street Journal talking about the fact that there

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<v Speaker 2>are a number of people in the White House who

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<v Speaker 2>are discussing proposals to try to figure out how to

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<v Speaker 2>extend taxpayer subsidies for Obamacare insurance premiums. And that is

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<v Speaker 2>something that somebody's got to give. And Wall Street Journal

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<v Speaker 2>says that least the people in the White House are

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<v Speaker 2>talking about, how can we do that without making our

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<v Speaker 2>base mad at us? Well, it's the same with the Democrats.

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<v Speaker 2>How can they do any business with Donald Trump unless

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<v Speaker 2>they get their desire to keep doing the healthcare subsidies.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is something that Democrats have had that desire

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<v Speaker 2>for a very long period of time. They have wanted

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<v Speaker 2>to have single payer, government only health insurance. And a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people in this country, including me, squawked about that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been tried in Canada, it's been tried in the UK,

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<v Speaker 2>It's been tried in a lot of other countries. And

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<v Speaker 2>wherever it's tried, the system goes is financially on the skids.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't provide a lot of treatment for lots of

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<v Speaker 2>the expensive illnesses, No they'll take care of you got

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<v Speaker 2>a broken leg, fine, but if you've got some major

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<v Speaker 2>disease that's going to take a lot of medical care

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of medicine. Uh, they just say, sorry,

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<v Speaker 2>it doesn't work. So it's a terrible system. Is a

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<v Speaker 2>socialist system, but that's what the Democrats have always wanted.

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<v Speaker 2>Most people at the same time don't support the Democrats politically,

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<v Speaker 2>but on this issue they are doing that soft hearted

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<v Speaker 2>stuff I've seen over and over and over again, is

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<v Speaker 2>they don't want to take away the health insurance premium

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<v Speaker 2>for some dude that's sitting on his behind playing video

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<v Speaker 2>games or whatever he's doing and not going to work.

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<v Speaker 2>We give him free medical care, but they don't think

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<v Speaker 2>of it that way. We'll see what happens from here,

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<v Speaker 2>but stand by, because there's going to have to be

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<v Speaker 2>somebody is going to have to blink. Kate Bedenfield is

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<v Speaker 2>a Democrat spokeswoman. She's very good at spending things for

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<v Speaker 2>the left. This is her take.

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<v Speaker 5>On it, So I would say that, Look, it's no

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<v Speaker 5>secret there is frustration among the Democratics with leadership of

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<v Speaker 5>the Democratic Party. Some of that is just a function

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<v Speaker 5>of the fact that Democrats don't control any of the

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<v Speaker 5>levers of power right now in Washington, and that's incredibly

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<v Speaker 5>frustrating for the base who is watching as Trump is

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<v Speaker 5>doing things that they find abhorrent. So there is certainly

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<v Speaker 5>some frustration. I will say though, that on this question

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<v Speaker 5>of healthcare, and Pete was saying, this is the Democrats

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<v Speaker 5>trying to drag the Republicans into their mess on healthcare.

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<v Speaker 5>There is no stronger argument. There is no more popular

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<v Speaker 5>argument that Democrats can make to the country than the

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<v Speaker 5>one that they make about how they have made healthcare

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<v Speaker 5>more affordable through Obamacare and beyond. It continues to be

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<v Speaker 5>It was an issue that drove the twenty twenty race.

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<v Speaker 5>It didn't have as much impact in the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 5>four race and the other things were going on, but

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<v Speaker 5>this continues to be an issue where when Democrats can

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<v Speaker 5>be talking about healthcare, they're in a strong they have

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<v Speaker 5>the upper hand, they're in a strong position. So to

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<v Speaker 5>see Senator Sanders congress on Nicasio Cortes doing a video

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<v Speaker 5>like that that clarifies the issues so concisely for voters

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<v Speaker 5>and reaches an audience of people who may not be

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<v Speaker 5>paying attention to the back and forth everything that's going

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<v Speaker 5>on in Washington is hugely valuable, and it's all part

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<v Speaker 5>of a bigger, broader democratic effort. And you know, I would, really,

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<v Speaker 5>I would counsel the Democrats to keep this fight focused

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<v Speaker 5>on healthcare because it is a winner.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, she says that's the winner. Keep beating the drum

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<v Speaker 2>about healthcare and she thinks that they will win. She

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<v Speaker 2>was talking about AOC and Bernie. They put out a

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<v Speaker 2>video that's been seeing millions of times, and she thought

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<v Speaker 2>that that was also very helpful.

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<v Speaker 1>Here it is, well, there's nothing clean about it.

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<v Speaker 5>This is one of the dirtiest tricks that has been

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<v Speaker 5>pulled on the American people.

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<v Speaker 6>Right now.

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<v Speaker 5>Your monthly insurance premiums are going to double if.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't have the money to go to Ada and

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<v Speaker 1>you're sick your diet.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So if you're a young, able body person who's

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<v Speaker 2>been ripping off the system by getting free medical, you're

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<v Speaker 2>going to have to pay a lot more than if

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<v Speaker 2>you paid anything in the past. Pete set who is

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<v Speaker 2>a spokesman for Republicans at this response.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, Kate Kate was spot on. Republicans are speaking to

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<v Speaker 7>their base, Democrats are speaking to their base. The Republican

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<v Speaker 7>base wants to see them fight Democrats and stand firm,

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<v Speaker 7>and the Democrat base wants to see them fight Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 7>And Republicans, well, there's a time and a place to

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<v Speaker 7>debate and discuss healthcare, just like there's a time and

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<v Speaker 7>a place to discuss immigration, or energy policy or education.

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<v Speaker 7>But not when it comes to funding of the government

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<v Speaker 7>and all the lives that are impacted by it. And

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<v Speaker 7>those aren't my words, those are the words of Senator

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<v Speaker 7>Chris Murphy from twenty thirteen. Democrats have always said that

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<v Speaker 7>a clean cr should be passed and we shouldn't try

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<v Speaker 7>Republicans shouldn't try to extract certain policy concessions during these debates,

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<v Speaker 7>and yet that's exactly what Democrats are doing.

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<v Speaker 6>We shouldn't even be having this conversation. A clean cr

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<v Speaker 6>should have been passed. The Republican majority in the House

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<v Speaker 6>of Representatives passed one. It's now in the Senate's court,

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<v Speaker 6>and it likely will fail yet again later today because

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<v Speaker 6>of Democrats and Transigents, because they want to drag Republicans

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<v Speaker 6>into their healthcare mess. This is only happening because Democrats.

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<v Speaker 6>Not a single Republican voted for Obamacare. The Affordable Care Act,

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<v Speaker 6>which has never been affordable. We're still waiting fifteen years

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<v Speaker 6>later for the affordability part of that and the subsidies

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<v Speaker 6>that are being discussed. Again, not a single Republican has

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<v Speaker 6>voted for those in the American Rescue Plan Act or

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<v Speaker 6>the Inflation Reduction Act, So they're trying to drag Republicans

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<v Speaker 6>into a mess that they themselves created.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, he is right. This all stems on Obamacare, which

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<v Speaker 2>was through some parliamentary tricks, was passed by Congress during

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<v Speaker 2>the Obama administration. But it's never been popular. It's never

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<v Speaker 2>been any sort of support from from the Republican side

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<v Speaker 2>of the aisle. And so they really if I don't

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<v Speaker 2>see the path for this. But what they really need

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<v Speaker 2>to do is sit down and figure out healthcare in

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<v Speaker 2>America because the Democrats want to pay for They wanted

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<v Speaker 2>a one part of a one payer system, government only

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<v Speaker 2>insurance that they will get rid of insurance health insurance

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<v Speaker 2>companies and you have to deal with the government. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's the classic is how's that work for you at DMV.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's a disaster in countries where they have that.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's where it stands at this late gent of

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<v Speaker 2>that your eye, I don't see the solution. But my

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<v Speaker 2>eyes did perk up when I saw the Wall Street

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<v Speaker 2>Journal saying, yeah, their work on maybe some sort of

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<v Speaker 2>way to have some sort of health insurance subsidies from

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<v Speaker 2>the Republicans. And I don't like it. I don't like

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<v Speaker 2>it at all. But somebody's going to blink. And at

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<v Speaker 2>this point Wall Street Journal says, the Republicans are kind

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<v Speaker 2>of working on that. Timberly Strassel, she writes an op

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<v Speaker 2>ed column for the Wall Street Journal, and well, this

421
00:26:29.160 --> 00:26:30.200
<v Speaker 2>is what she had to say.

422
00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:30.920
<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

423
00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:32.440
<v Speaker 9>So this is the thing that I think is the

424
00:26:32.480 --> 00:26:36.079
<v Speaker 9>most interesting dynamic because if you look in beginning, all

425
00:26:36.119 --> 00:26:38.480
<v Speaker 9>the pressure was on Chuck Schumer, right, this was a

426
00:26:38.519 --> 00:26:40.680
<v Speaker 9>test of whether or not he had backbone.

427
00:26:41.039 --> 00:26:41.839
<v Speaker 10>And the way I.

428
00:26:41.799 --> 00:26:43.880
<v Speaker 9>Would have thought that this might have ended is that

429
00:26:43.960 --> 00:26:48.240
<v Speaker 9>as you had more votes progressively, more Democrats, especially moderates,

430
00:26:48.480 --> 00:26:51.200
<v Speaker 9>would join along sort of take the heat off of

431
00:26:51.319 --> 00:26:54.400
<v Speaker 9>Chuck Schumer. They'd take it instead until you got to

432
00:26:54.440 --> 00:26:57.559
<v Speaker 9>that magic number and it opened again. But with these

433
00:26:57.599 --> 00:27:00.799
<v Speaker 9>activist groups now making this a litmus test for all

434
00:27:00.880 --> 00:27:03.759
<v Speaker 9>the members, it's going to be much tougher for them

435
00:27:03.799 --> 00:27:06.160
<v Speaker 9>to jump across the Aisle. I would look maybe for

436
00:27:06.240 --> 00:27:09.319
<v Speaker 9>a Jean Shaheen or a Gary Peters because they're retiring.

437
00:27:09.640 --> 00:27:11.880
<v Speaker 9>But if you're a member who wants to run for reelection,

438
00:27:12.039 --> 00:27:15.079
<v Speaker 9>the message is being sent if you vote with Republicans,

439
00:27:15.079 --> 00:27:16.279
<v Speaker 9>you will get a primary.

440
00:27:16.519 --> 00:27:20.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So the threat is on Democrats better not do

441
00:27:20.240 --> 00:27:23.759
<v Speaker 2>anything to help the Republicans and don't do any business

442
00:27:23.759 --> 00:27:27.400
<v Speaker 2>with Donald Trump. So they're threatening their own people. One

443
00:27:27.440 --> 00:27:29.920
<v Speaker 2>other item that's unrelated coming out of the White House

444
00:27:29.960 --> 00:27:34.680
<v Speaker 2>today is well, it'll actually be on Tuesday. We're finding

445
00:27:34.720 --> 00:27:39.759
<v Speaker 2>out is the Chinese talking about trade. The Chinese have

446
00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:45.759
<v Speaker 2>cut off purchasing soybeans from American farmers, and they've always

447
00:27:46.079 --> 00:27:51.480
<v Speaker 2>bought a ton of soybeans from US farmers. So because

448
00:27:51.559 --> 00:27:55.839
<v Speaker 2>China has cut off US farmers, apparently, according again this

449
00:27:55.920 --> 00:27:57.839
<v Speaker 2>is Wall Street Journal again that they've got a lot

450
00:27:57.880 --> 00:28:03.920
<v Speaker 2>of their reporting, the President's considering providing ten billion dollars

451
00:28:03.960 --> 00:28:08.640
<v Speaker 2>in aid to US farmers because of the economic fallout

452
00:28:08.759 --> 00:28:13.240
<v Speaker 2>from the tariffs that are blocking China from buying any

453
00:28:13.400 --> 00:28:19.519
<v Speaker 2>of the of the soybeans. So senior Administration official that

454
00:28:19.720 --> 00:28:24.359
<v Speaker 2>the discussions have centered on ten to fourteen billion in aid.

455
00:28:25.039 --> 00:28:28.839
<v Speaker 2>It would likely go toward helping soybean producers as well

456
00:28:28.880 --> 00:28:34.160
<v Speaker 2>as other parts of the farm economy. Scott Besant, the

457
00:28:34.440 --> 00:28:38.559
<v Speaker 2>Treasurer Secretary, was talking about the fact that we should

458
00:28:38.599 --> 00:28:40.240
<v Speaker 2>hear some news on this on Tuesday.

459
00:28:41.720 --> 00:28:44.640
<v Speaker 8>There's plenty the president can do, and it's unfortunate the

460
00:28:44.720 --> 00:28:51.160
<v Speaker 8>Chinese leadership has decided to use the American farmers, soybean

461
00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:56.200
<v Speaker 8>farmers in particular, as a hostage or pawn in the

462
00:28:56.400 --> 00:29:01.480
<v Speaker 8>trade negotiations. And American farmers over willingly voted for President

463
00:29:01.559 --> 00:29:03.839
<v Speaker 8>Trump more than ninety percent.

464
00:29:04.400 --> 00:29:06.119
<v Speaker 1>He loves the farmers. He loves them.

465
00:29:06.519 --> 00:29:10.000
<v Speaker 8>We have great Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rawins. Three of

466
00:29:10.079 --> 00:29:13.759
<v Speaker 8>us were in the Oval yesterday and you should expect

467
00:29:14.240 --> 00:29:19.240
<v Speaker 8>some news on Tuesday on substantial report or substantial support

468
00:29:19.480 --> 00:29:24.359
<v Speaker 8>for our farmers, especially the soybean farmers. They've had President

469
00:29:24.359 --> 00:29:26.319
<v Speaker 8>Trump's back and we've got their back.

470
00:29:26.960 --> 00:29:29.119
<v Speaker 2>There's some of the damage that's been done so far.

471
00:29:29.279 --> 00:29:35.160
<v Speaker 2>From January through August of this year, our soybean exports

472
00:29:35.160 --> 00:29:39.960
<v Speaker 2>to China totaled just over two hundred million bushels. That's

473
00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:44.240
<v Speaker 2>down one billion bushels from the same time last year.

474
00:29:44.279 --> 00:29:49.599
<v Speaker 2>According to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Meantime, the Chinese

475
00:29:49.680 --> 00:29:53.240
<v Speaker 2>are doing business with Brazil. Brazil has shipped more than

476
00:29:53.279 --> 00:29:58.119
<v Speaker 2>two billion bushels of soybeans to China during this exact time.

477
00:29:58.359 --> 00:30:03.319
<v Speaker 2>So China obviously sticks to the US farmer for very

478
00:30:03.359 --> 00:30:07.640
<v Speaker 2>strategic reasons, and President Trump says I will write checks

479
00:30:07.640 --> 00:30:10.680
<v Speaker 2>to the farmers to keep them going. Meantime, the President,

480
00:30:11.319 --> 00:30:14.519
<v Speaker 2>President She and President Trump will be meeting at a

481
00:30:14.599 --> 00:30:19.839
<v Speaker 2>conference in South Korea in about four weeks. President Trump

482
00:30:19.920 --> 00:30:22.559
<v Speaker 2>said that's obviously going to be one of the topics

483
00:30:22.599 --> 00:30:25.880
<v Speaker 2>that he is bringing up. So since it's Friday, let's

484
00:30:25.880 --> 00:30:29.559
<v Speaker 2>do a little financial Friday talk here. I've been very

485
00:30:29.559 --> 00:30:34.480
<v Speaker 2>bullish on AI. I just think it is the future

486
00:30:34.519 --> 00:30:36.680
<v Speaker 2>and it's just going to be bigger as we go along.

487
00:30:36.880 --> 00:30:40.119
<v Speaker 2>But there's people also going, oh my, it has really

488
00:30:41.680 --> 00:30:44.400
<v Speaker 2>become a lot of the darling. A lot of billions

489
00:30:44.400 --> 00:30:46.599
<v Speaker 2>of dollars are being thrown at it, and companies are

490
00:30:46.599 --> 00:30:49.000
<v Speaker 2>spending a lot of time trying to build as many

491
00:30:49.160 --> 00:30:52.000
<v Speaker 2>data centers as they can because they need lots of

492
00:30:52.200 --> 00:30:56.640
<v Speaker 2>energy in order to fund to supply to those data centers,

493
00:30:56.720 --> 00:31:00.799
<v Speaker 2>so they work. So Austin Gouldsby, who is now one

494
00:31:00.839 --> 00:31:06.559
<v Speaker 2>of the FED members was asked about AI and his

495
00:31:06.680 --> 00:31:09.759
<v Speaker 2>view as a member of the Federal Reserve Board what

496
00:31:09.920 --> 00:31:12.920
<v Speaker 2>his thoughts are, and you can tell from his comments

497
00:31:12.920 --> 00:31:16.480
<v Speaker 2>that he thinks it just maybe be in a bubble.

498
00:31:16.559 --> 00:31:20.440
<v Speaker 11>If you look at data centers, they're booming. We should

499
00:31:20.559 --> 00:31:24.799
<v Speaker 11>think about what happens if the growth rate of AI

500
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:30.240
<v Speaker 11>is not as large as the as its biggest proponents think.

501
00:31:31.680 --> 00:31:36.200
<v Speaker 11>Might we get over our skis a bit with over

502
00:31:36.279 --> 00:31:39.720
<v Speaker 11>investment and have to clean up if there were a bubble.

503
00:31:39.799 --> 00:31:42.440
<v Speaker 1>I think we do want to think about that topic.

504
00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:43.720
<v Speaker 1>I like Austin.

505
00:31:43.960 --> 00:31:46.960
<v Speaker 2>I think he's a smart guy, but that is he

506
00:31:47.519 --> 00:31:51.880
<v Speaker 2>was an economic professor before he went on to the

507
00:31:51.880 --> 00:31:55.079
<v Speaker 2>Federal Reserve Board, and the Federal Reserve Board, as we

508
00:31:55.160 --> 00:31:59.759
<v Speaker 2>all know, is very cautious. They got yellow lights flashing

509
00:31:59.799 --> 00:32:03.920
<v Speaker 2>on everything. They're afraid of their own shadow. So he's

510
00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:07.880
<v Speaker 2>not a tech executive, not in the slightest and the

511
00:32:07.960 --> 00:32:13.240
<v Speaker 2>tech executives are much more prone to take risks. They

512
00:32:13.279 --> 00:32:15.880
<v Speaker 2>were talking about it this morning with Jim Kramer on

513
00:32:16.480 --> 00:32:21.680
<v Speaker 2>CNBC and Kramer, well, I'll let him speak for himself.

514
00:32:21.680 --> 00:32:22.559
<v Speaker 10>I think a lot it is.

515
00:32:22.640 --> 00:32:24.759
<v Speaker 12>I think that, by the way, there's big competitionally you

516
00:32:24.799 --> 00:32:25.799
<v Speaker 12>didn't talk about China.

517
00:32:25.920 --> 00:32:27.480
<v Speaker 10>China is one from one with us so far, so

518
00:32:27.519 --> 00:32:28.559
<v Speaker 10>people say they'rehead of us.

519
00:32:28.960 --> 00:32:32.720
<v Speaker 12>Look, I think it's firm buying because if it's a

520
00:32:32.759 --> 00:32:35.079
<v Speaker 12>fourth Industrial Revolution, then you need all the power you

521
00:32:35.119 --> 00:32:38.119
<v Speaker 12>can get unless you have quantum. I was grew article

522
00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:40.559
<v Speaker 12>in the Harvard Crimson Ball places saying that quantum is

523
00:32:40.559 --> 00:32:42.880
<v Speaker 12>beginning to work longer. They've done a lot of work

524
00:32:42.880 --> 00:32:45.920
<v Speaker 12>on it. All the quantum stocks are trading up. I

525
00:32:46.039 --> 00:32:49.160
<v Speaker 12>come back and say, I'm not worried about a glide.

526
00:32:50.240 --> 00:32:53.119
<v Speaker 12>I'm worried about being behind the ruck, being behind the Chinese.

527
00:32:53.240 --> 00:32:54.079
<v Speaker 12>I don't want to fall.

528
00:32:53.920 --> 00:32:54.880
<v Speaker 10>Behind the Chinese.

529
00:32:55.039 --> 00:32:57.319
<v Speaker 12>And I think said, the only way we can do

530
00:32:57.359 --> 00:32:59.839
<v Speaker 12>it is it's not there's no Manhattan Project in the country.

531
00:33:00.160 --> 00:33:02.880
<v Speaker 10>The project is uh is met Uh.

532
00:33:03.160 --> 00:33:05.559
<v Speaker 12>The project is by the way, I would say, the

533
00:33:05.640 --> 00:33:07.400
<v Speaker 12>number one person right now, we don't talk about it.

534
00:33:07.440 --> 00:33:10.079
<v Speaker 10>I'm nothing is certainly in the news.

535
00:33:10.119 --> 00:33:10.319
<v Speaker 1>Again.

536
00:33:10.400 --> 00:33:10.960
<v Speaker 10>This is Elon.

537
00:33:11.960 --> 00:33:14.400
<v Speaker 12>I mean when you speak to Jensen, he talks about Elon,

538
00:33:14.519 --> 00:33:17.359
<v Speaker 12>He talks about Mark Well first, Nate, he calls him Zuck. Elon,

539
00:33:17.640 --> 00:33:21.359
<v Speaker 12>Zukh and Sacha are the three that feel it's the

540
00:33:21.359 --> 00:33:24.200
<v Speaker 12>most important to build out I've only met.

541
00:33:25.000 --> 00:33:28.319
<v Speaker 10>I met Sacha, I've met Mark.

542
00:33:29.400 --> 00:33:32.440
<v Speaker 12>To think that they could be wrong requires a big

543
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:37.839
<v Speaker 12>leap of faith because they've been other than Jensen Preps,

544
00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:40.480
<v Speaker 12>the smartest people during the whole era. So I'm not

545
00:33:40.559 --> 00:33:41.079
<v Speaker 12>buying it.

546
00:33:41.079 --> 00:33:45.480
<v Speaker 6>So you think the radar of management and aggregate this

547
00:33:45.680 --> 00:33:49.200
<v Speaker 6>time is better than what we had in the in

548
00:33:49.240 --> 00:33:50.240
<v Speaker 6>the dot com era.

549
00:33:50.119 --> 00:33:52.039
<v Speaker 12>Look, I mean the dot com I mean someone was

550
00:33:52.039 --> 00:33:54.359
<v Speaker 12>mentioning that the other day, Well it was it was

551
00:33:54.400 --> 00:33:57.680
<v Speaker 12>the Nortel deal. Well, no, I mean those companies, the

552
00:33:57.720 --> 00:34:02.720
<v Speaker 12>companies that were buying, uh, all the internet equipment we're

553
00:34:02.759 --> 00:34:05.279
<v Speaker 12>all doing. There are a lot more doing vendor finances.

554
00:34:05.559 --> 00:34:07.519
<v Speaker 12>This That's why I was worried by the way about

555
00:34:07.559 --> 00:34:11.239
<v Speaker 12>the Lands deal, because that smelled of vendor financing. But

556
00:34:11.480 --> 00:34:14.920
<v Speaker 12>I know that the demand, as we've been seeing from

557
00:34:15.199 --> 00:34:17.760
<v Speaker 12>Opening Eye is incredible. They're beginning to roll out real

558
00:34:17.840 --> 00:34:21.360
<v Speaker 12>connors and the products are so in need, and they're

559
00:34:21.360 --> 00:34:23.559
<v Speaker 12>doing a video product and everyone's so buzzing about their

560
00:34:23.599 --> 00:34:24.159
<v Speaker 12>video products.

561
00:34:24.239 --> 00:34:24.400
<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

562
00:34:24.400 --> 00:34:25.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm not always in a good way.

563
00:34:25.719 --> 00:34:27.679
<v Speaker 12>No, not always in a good way. But I'm not

564
00:34:27.760 --> 00:34:30.559
<v Speaker 12>worried about a glut. I am worried that we don't

565
00:34:30.599 --> 00:34:32.840
<v Speaker 12>have enough power to be able to build everything we'd

566
00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:36.920
<v Speaker 12>like to the g IP deal today Blackrock the Lady

567
00:34:37.280 --> 00:34:40.559
<v Speaker 12>shows that there are people again Larry Thing, that are

568
00:34:40.599 --> 00:34:41.920
<v Speaker 12>saying we need more power.

569
00:34:42.119 --> 00:34:45.000
<v Speaker 10>Look, maybe the economists.

570
00:34:44.360 --> 00:34:47.599
<v Speaker 12>Are wrong, and the people who are are maybe they're right,

571
00:34:47.599 --> 00:34:49.280
<v Speaker 12>and the people who are using in our room. But

572
00:34:49.679 --> 00:34:52.400
<v Speaker 12>you know, Coral, I've studied these guys now wait a Sunday,

573
00:34:52.400 --> 00:34:55.800
<v Speaker 12>and they all have incredible demand, and so they have

574
00:34:55.880 --> 00:34:56.800
<v Speaker 12>to meet the demand.

575
00:34:57.280 --> 00:35:00.239
<v Speaker 10>I just I just can't better get. I can't better get.

576
00:35:00.840 --> 00:35:02.840
<v Speaker 10>I mean time I've ever tried to call these guys

577
00:35:02.880 --> 00:35:03.800
<v Speaker 10>wall I had.

578
00:35:03.760 --> 00:35:07.119
<v Speaker 2>Looked so dopey. Yeah, I'm not going there. Yeah, the

579
00:35:07.239 --> 00:35:10.559
<v Speaker 2>Cramer laid it out pretty clearly. Who do you think

580
00:35:10.679 --> 00:35:13.559
<v Speaker 2>is right? Who do you think is wrong? The economists

581
00:35:13.679 --> 00:35:15.920
<v Speaker 2>or the people that are running some of the major

582
00:35:16.599 --> 00:35:20.559
<v Speaker 2>technology firms in the world, And they have been so

583
00:35:20.800 --> 00:35:25.920
<v Speaker 2>right for so long, and they're extremely smart people versus

584
00:35:27.239 --> 00:35:30.400
<v Speaker 2>university economists or economists sitting on the Federal Reserve Board.

585
00:35:31.000 --> 00:35:33.480
<v Speaker 2>And I'm with Kramer. I'll go with I'll go with

586
00:35:33.519 --> 00:35:36.000
<v Speaker 2>the people that are running the tech sector speaking. But

587
00:35:36.079 --> 00:35:39.000
<v Speaker 2>back to Austin, he is an economist and he's on

588
00:35:39.039 --> 00:35:42.960
<v Speaker 2>the Federal Reserve, and today, first Friday of the month,

589
00:35:43.159 --> 00:35:46.559
<v Speaker 2>no jobs report came out, and so the big question

590
00:35:46.840 --> 00:35:50.079
<v Speaker 2>for Austin Gouldsby was what are you going to do?

591
00:35:50.119 --> 00:35:51.960
<v Speaker 2>What are you gonna do without a jobs report.

592
00:35:52.199 --> 00:35:56.440
<v Speaker 11>Here's what he said, Chicago FED not because we knew

593
00:35:56.480 --> 00:35:58.480
<v Speaker 11>there was going to be a government shutdown, we didn't,

594
00:35:58.519 --> 00:36:01.519
<v Speaker 11>but because we've been trying to get better real time

595
00:36:01.639 --> 00:36:05.079
<v Speaker 11>measures of what's happening in the job market. We've recently

596
00:36:05.159 --> 00:36:08.760
<v Speaker 11>rolled out the Chicago FED Labor Market Indicators, and one

597
00:36:08.800 --> 00:36:13.239
<v Speaker 11>of those indicators and we turn to eleven different data sources.

598
00:36:13.239 --> 00:36:13.760
<v Speaker 1>We take the.

599
00:36:13.719 --> 00:36:18.639
<v Speaker 11>Official data plus high quality private sector sources, and one

600
00:36:18.679 --> 00:36:21.679
<v Speaker 11>of the numbers that we keep is a real time

601
00:36:21.880 --> 00:36:25.360
<v Speaker 11>estimate of what will be the unemployment rate. So, barring

602
00:36:25.880 --> 00:36:30.039
<v Speaker 11>getting an actual unemployment rate, we released yesterday that the

603
00:36:30.159 --> 00:36:33.559
<v Speaker 11>unemployment rate would have been announced to be four point

604
00:36:33.599 --> 00:36:38.599
<v Speaker 11>three percent, that is unchanged. There's no question the best

605
00:36:38.880 --> 00:36:41.440
<v Speaker 11>jobs data in the world come from the Bureau of

606
00:36:41.480 --> 00:36:45.559
<v Speaker 11>Labor Statistics. We need that data. We want that data.

607
00:36:45.920 --> 00:36:50.559
<v Speaker 11>We can use what we have, which are private sector sources.

608
00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:53.800
<v Speaker 11>We can look at the state unemployment claims and plug

609
00:36:53.880 --> 00:36:57.239
<v Speaker 11>those into the formula. Over time exactly as you say, Steve,

610
00:36:57.320 --> 00:36:59.920
<v Speaker 11>it's going to get farther and farther from the truth.

611
00:37:00.119 --> 00:37:04.239
<v Speaker 11>Even the private sector sources rely on the BLS data

612
00:37:04.559 --> 00:37:10.719
<v Speaker 11>to kind of normalize and make their samples representative. But

613
00:37:10.960 --> 00:37:13.639
<v Speaker 11>we fight with the army we have, and at moments

614
00:37:13.679 --> 00:37:16.400
<v Speaker 11>like this where it's critically important that we're figuring out

615
00:37:16.679 --> 00:37:20.079
<v Speaker 11>whether the economy is in a moment of transition, this

616
00:37:20.280 --> 00:37:24.199
<v Speaker 11>is what we have and thus far it still continues

617
00:37:24.239 --> 00:37:26.840
<v Speaker 11>to point to a pretty stable labor.

618
00:37:26.559 --> 00:37:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Market in my view.

619
00:37:28.400 --> 00:37:32.440
<v Speaker 11>You know that Paul Volger used to tell me our

620
00:37:32.679 --> 00:37:35.679
<v Speaker 11>job that the FED is to act and the market's

621
00:37:35.760 --> 00:37:37.000
<v Speaker 11>job is to react.

622
00:37:37.239 --> 00:37:39.079
<v Speaker 1>And let's not get the order mixed up.

623
00:37:39.280 --> 00:37:44.360
<v Speaker 11>So what the market expects is not in the fed's mandate.

624
00:37:44.519 --> 00:37:46.519
<v Speaker 1>What should be.

625
00:37:45.800 --> 00:37:49.519
<v Speaker 11>In the decision of the FED are the economic conditions

626
00:37:49.599 --> 00:37:53.639
<v Speaker 11>on employment and inflation. That raises the degree of difficulty

627
00:37:53.800 --> 00:37:56.239
<v Speaker 11>when we cover up one of the eyes or put

628
00:37:56.239 --> 00:37:59.719
<v Speaker 11>a screen where you can't see the data. I think

629
00:38:00.480 --> 00:38:03.880
<v Speaker 11>everyone on the FOMC has to come to their own

630
00:38:03.960 --> 00:38:07.840
<v Speaker 11>determination of what does it mean for the trajectory. As

631
00:38:07.880 --> 00:38:11.400
<v Speaker 11>you know, before we got into some of the dust

632
00:38:11.440 --> 00:38:15.400
<v Speaker 11>in the air, I believe that the underlying economy can

633
00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:18.800
<v Speaker 11>afford rates can afford to come down over time in

634
00:38:18.840 --> 00:38:22.199
<v Speaker 11>a gradual basis a fair amount from where they are now.

635
00:38:22.679 --> 00:38:27.960
<v Speaker 11>But this uptick of inflation that we've been seeing, coupled

636
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:34.159
<v Speaker 11>with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating, have put the

637
00:38:34.199 --> 00:38:37.719
<v Speaker 11>Central Bank in a bit of a sticky spot.

638
00:38:38.320 --> 00:38:40.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so they don't know what to do raise race,

639
00:38:40.800 --> 00:38:45.039
<v Speaker 2>lower rates. Austin basically said he thinks race should go

640
00:38:45.119 --> 00:38:50.119
<v Speaker 2>lower over time. So that's good. But they're very, very

641
00:38:50.199 --> 00:38:53.360
<v Speaker 2>very cautious, and they do. They're in a pickle, There's

642
00:38:53.360 --> 00:38:57.119
<v Speaker 2>no question about it. So let's get some emails in

643
00:38:57.239 --> 00:39:02.719
<v Speaker 2>before we get too far on this podcast. Today I

644
00:39:02.760 --> 00:39:10.559
<v Speaker 2>got Brian Demattio sends me an email, says about Kamala Harris.

645
00:39:10.960 --> 00:39:14.239
<v Speaker 2>He says, please don't encourage her in her fake success.

646
00:39:14.639 --> 00:39:18.599
<v Speaker 2>She campaigned at abortion clinics in Michigan, for instance, as

647
00:39:18.639 --> 00:39:23.719
<v Speaker 2>a solution to our country's issues. There is still nothing

648
00:39:23.760 --> 00:39:28.039
<v Speaker 2>of substance underneath the hat, even if she surpasses Elon

649
00:39:28.159 --> 00:39:33.039
<v Speaker 2>in total wealth. Brian in Northern Michigan, listen, I got

650
00:39:33.079 --> 00:39:36.519
<v Speaker 2>to say this again. I was going on about how

651
00:39:36.559 --> 00:39:39.639
<v Speaker 2>her book sales are to the moon. She's selling books

652
00:39:39.719 --> 00:39:42.880
<v Speaker 2>like crazy and people are buying the tickets to her

653
00:39:42.880 --> 00:39:45.239
<v Speaker 2>book tour, so she's going to make a lot of money.

654
00:39:45.320 --> 00:39:48.599
<v Speaker 2>And I'm looking at it and going, I'm thinking that

655
00:39:48.679 --> 00:39:52.119
<v Speaker 2>this might be the kind of message that she thinks

656
00:39:52.159 --> 00:39:56.880
<v Speaker 2>people love her. And I'm going she has failed miserably

657
00:39:56.920 --> 00:40:01.000
<v Speaker 2>as a candidate now a couple different times. And so

658
00:40:01.199 --> 00:40:05.880
<v Speaker 2>I hear you, Brian. I'm not a supporter of Kamala

659
00:40:05.920 --> 00:40:09.440
<v Speaker 2>Harris in any way, shape or form, but you know what,

660
00:40:10.199 --> 00:40:16.679
<v Speaker 2>I hope she runs. I hope she's the Democrat nominee.

661
00:40:17.039 --> 00:40:22.639
<v Speaker 2>I mean, seriously, if Republicans should be cheering her on

662
00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:26.159
<v Speaker 2>because I don't know who the Republican nominee is going

663
00:40:26.199 --> 00:40:28.199
<v Speaker 2>to be, but whoever, they should be able to run

664
00:40:28.239 --> 00:40:31.960
<v Speaker 2>circles around Kamala Harris in twenty twenty eight if she

665
00:40:32.079 --> 00:40:34.800
<v Speaker 2>decides to run. He also sent me a note about

666
00:40:35.400 --> 00:40:38.559
<v Speaker 2>Barry Weiss has been named the editor in chief of

667
00:40:38.719 --> 00:40:43.320
<v Speaker 2>CBS News and Barry Weiss was with the New York

668
00:40:43.360 --> 00:40:47.039
<v Speaker 2>Times and she got into a fractue with them about

669
00:40:47.079 --> 00:40:51.400
<v Speaker 2>their reporting that was one sided. So she started the

670
00:40:51.440 --> 00:40:56.320
<v Speaker 2>Free Press. He's very free press, very independent woman who

671
00:40:56.400 --> 00:41:02.639
<v Speaker 2>is excellent, so good for her. Penny has a whole

672
00:41:02.639 --> 00:41:08.239
<v Speaker 2>bunch of different thoughts on things. She said, question of

673
00:41:08.280 --> 00:41:11.519
<v Speaker 2>the day, when the State of California shuts down, the

674
00:41:11.639 --> 00:41:16.800
<v Speaker 2>electronic pay transfer for state workers are all paid through

675
00:41:17.039 --> 00:41:22.440
<v Speaker 2>a local credit union, so there is no loss of

676
00:41:22.519 --> 00:41:25.000
<v Speaker 2>pay due to the State of California workers when the

677
00:41:25.000 --> 00:41:29.000
<v Speaker 2>state shuts down. Does this apply to federal workers? No, No,

678
00:41:29.159 --> 00:41:32.599
<v Speaker 2>they don't. They don't have anything like that. And she

679
00:41:32.639 --> 00:41:35.960
<v Speaker 2>said that editorial comment no work, no pay, that phrase

680
00:41:36.000 --> 00:41:42.079
<v Speaker 2>should include workers too. Where where do these quacks and

681
00:41:42.119 --> 00:41:45.920
<v Speaker 2>criminals and non competent politicians come from? Do any of

682
00:41:46.000 --> 00:41:49.039
<v Speaker 2>them ever really graduate high school? Or are they primarily

683
00:41:49.079 --> 00:41:52.559
<v Speaker 2>a bunch of participation folks who qulinn't test out, have

684
00:41:52.719 --> 00:41:58.880
<v Speaker 2>never grown up or assumed any real responsibility. So it's oh.

685
00:41:58.920 --> 00:42:02.280
<v Speaker 2>And then finally, Wayne In always was against any form

686
00:42:02.440 --> 00:42:07.199
<v Speaker 2>of federal healthcare, even in the beginning with Medicare. The

687
00:42:07.239 --> 00:42:11.039
<v Speaker 2>biggest file that we have in our tax collection each

688
00:42:11.119 --> 00:42:15.519
<v Speaker 2>year is our medical file. Yeah, I'm, i'm what happened

689
00:42:15.519 --> 00:42:20.079
<v Speaker 2>to the day's medical care has become more expensive and

690
00:42:20.159 --> 00:42:24.159
<v Speaker 2>more complicated because of the government's involvement. There's no question

691
00:42:24.280 --> 00:42:30.760
<v Speaker 2>about it. And Eaglestorm sends me an email about California

692
00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:35.480
<v Speaker 2>has passed a bill to censor and outlaw wrong think

693
00:42:35.840 --> 00:42:42.280
<v Speaker 2>on social media. Well that's I'm sorry, that violates the

694
00:42:42.320 --> 00:42:46.960
<v Speaker 2>First Amendment. So apparently the legislature in California passed this

695
00:42:47.119 --> 00:42:55.360
<v Speaker 2>bill of enacting hate speech code to well what does

696
00:42:55.400 --> 00:42:59.199
<v Speaker 2>it say if signed? Governor hasn't signed. Prosecutors would be

697
00:42:59.239 --> 00:43:03.480
<v Speaker 2>empowered to hit Facebook, Instagram, TikTok x and the like

698
00:43:03.800 --> 00:43:08.159
<v Speaker 2>with million dollar fines whenever they permit a user to

699
00:43:08.280 --> 00:43:14.239
<v Speaker 2>mock someone's race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, immigration status, or

700
00:43:14.280 --> 00:43:19.159
<v Speaker 2>other protected characteristics. They're doing that in England. They're arresting

701
00:43:19.320 --> 00:43:23.360
<v Speaker 2>people in England. They don't have a First Amendment in England.

702
00:43:23.960 --> 00:43:28.760
<v Speaker 2>So California is following basically up on what the British

703
00:43:28.760 --> 00:43:34.800
<v Speaker 2>have been doing. Meantime, all of this boils down to

704
00:43:35.840 --> 00:43:39.480
<v Speaker 2>the market today, and with all the troubles with the

705
00:43:39.519 --> 00:43:42.320
<v Speaker 2>government and the fact that they're shut down and the

706
00:43:42.400 --> 00:43:46.000
<v Speaker 2>fact that we've got all kinds of problems with the

707
00:43:46.039 --> 00:43:50.159
<v Speaker 2>Middle East, Wall Street still keeps going and they went

708
00:43:51.000 --> 00:43:54.000
<v Speaker 2>higher in a big way today, all kinds of big

709
00:43:54.079 --> 00:43:58.559
<v Speaker 2>new records of Wall Street. The Dow up today two

710
00:43:58.800 --> 00:44:02.039
<v Speaker 2>hundred and thirty eight points to a new record forty

711
00:44:02.119 --> 00:44:06.000
<v Speaker 2>six thousand and seven fifty eight the s and P

712
00:44:06.280 --> 00:44:10.440
<v Speaker 2>first time it's been above sixty seven hundred sixty seven fifteen.

713
00:44:10.480 --> 00:44:13.920
<v Speaker 2>That's the only a one point gain. Then the Nasdak

714
00:44:14.000 --> 00:44:17.519
<v Speaker 2>actually was higher, but it fell back sixty three points,

715
00:44:17.840 --> 00:44:20.440
<v Speaker 2>so not much of a change there. Gold up forty

716
00:44:20.559 --> 00:44:24.800
<v Speaker 2>four dollars above thirty nine hundred it's a three thoy

717
00:44:25.000 --> 00:44:29.159
<v Speaker 2>nine hundred and twelve for one ounce of gold. And

718
00:44:29.320 --> 00:44:33.920
<v Speaker 2>oil mostly bouncing around the same neighborhood up twenty some

719
00:44:34.079 --> 00:44:37.840
<v Speaker 2>cents today, just about sixty one dollars for a barrel

720
00:44:37.880 --> 00:44:41.679
<v Speaker 2>of oil. That is it for us today. Had yourself

721
00:44:41.800 --> 00:44:45.480
<v Speaker 2>a wonderful weekend. We will be back on Monday and

722
00:44:45.599 --> 00:44:46.519
<v Speaker 2>hope to see you then
