Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief. There's a joy in these
Speaker 1: games or not, taking you on a journey through fantasy football,
Speaker 1: the law, and life. We saw your It depends on
Speaker 1: how much you want. And now you're legal analyst and
Speaker 1: auction draft expert here to help you dominate your fantasy drafts.
Speaker 1: Your host, Drew Davenport, there are full hearts. Hey, everybody,
Speaker 1: welcome in to the Auction Brief. As the lady said,
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much
Speaker 1: for joining me for another episode of the Auction Brief.
Speaker 1: As the calendar turns to August in just a couple
Speaker 1: of days, guess what. As I'm recording this right now,
Speaker 1: all thirty two NFL teams are in training camp. Folks,
Speaker 1: allow yourselves a moment of celebration. We made it. Football
Speaker 1: is officially back. We have the Hall of Fame game
Speaker 1: coming up next week. A week from today, there'll be
Speaker 1: real football on your television screen. That's incredible, So celebrate
Speaker 1: that for a second. Take a deep breath because we've
Speaker 1: got four weeks left to push through to the finish.
Speaker 1: There's only actually three weeks left of the Auction Brief,
Speaker 1: but I'll be ripping off par sheets over there at
Speaker 1: the Patreon, I'll be putting out content there. I'll be
Speaker 1: continuing to push forward to help you with your auction drafts.
Speaker 1: But folks, time is running short, so we're going to
Speaker 1: get down to business quickly. Today. I want to go
Speaker 1: through my usual plugs, and then I want to talk
Speaker 1: about an actual auction that just happened with a bunch
Speaker 1: of experts. It's hard to argue that this is one
Speaker 1: of the most helpful things that we can possibly do
Speaker 1: on this show because it involves real people playing out
Speaker 1: a draft with intelligent drafters, people who know values cold
Speaker 1: and generally know what they're doing in a draft room,
Speaker 1: even if they aren't auction specialists. This is an episode
Speaker 1: that is just absolute gold. In my opinion. You can't
Speaker 1: get much better than this, because it's going to give
Speaker 1: you a really nice baseline. Because, as you'll see when
Speaker 1: I go through all of the things that happened in
Speaker 1: this draft, there weren't many wacky things that happened, and
Speaker 1: I think that's a great thing for our conversation because
Speaker 1: those wacky outliers that happen in some rooms that isn't
Speaker 1: necessarily helping you to kind of figure out what you're
Speaker 1: supposed to be doing instead. The sort of linear way
Speaker 1: that this auction played out on Saturday is actually a
Speaker 1: great baseline for you because it's kind of right up
Speaker 1: the middle, and it's where you should start with your
Speaker 1: preparation and thinking about values for some of these players.
Speaker 1: So I'm excited about this. Today we're going to take
Speaker 1: a chronological walk through the Kings Classic auction, and I've
Speaker 1: got four themes that I isolated from the auction that
Speaker 1: I think you can lay over everything that happened, and folks,
Speaker 1: we are going to walk through it, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to do my best to get you out of here
Speaker 1: in the allotted time. But as people have said, they'd
Speaker 1: rather hear the content if it takes longer, and if
Speaker 1: it takes an hour, it takes an hour. But I
Speaker 1: think that we can rip through it here in about
Speaker 1: forty five minutes. I think that you need to remember
Speaker 1: that you can't possibly get all of this information in
Speaker 1: your head through one listening of the show. And I'm
Speaker 1: not here to make some sort of silly plan to
Speaker 1: increase my downloads, because once you download the show once,
Speaker 1: I don't get a second download for listening to it again.
Speaker 1: So I'm not telling you that you have to listen twice,
Speaker 1: but I don't think it can hurt because a lot
Speaker 1: of this stuff is going to be difficult to take
Speaker 1: in because we're going to move so quick. And that's
Speaker 1: not because I'm trying to get done in forty five minutes.
Speaker 1: It's just that how often can you say what a
Speaker 1: player's price is before you move on? And it's hard
Speaker 1: for you guys to listen to that and internalize it
Speaker 1: when I'm moving on to another point already. So I
Speaker 1: don't think it's a bad idea. If you listen to
Speaker 1: this show twice, it might be one of the only
Speaker 1: ones of the summer that you really need to have
Speaker 1: a couple run throughs at it. So we'll talk about
Speaker 1: those themes in just a minute. Let me get the
Speaker 1: preliminary stuff out of the way. First of all, I
Speaker 1: have to say right off the top, the Salary Cap
Speaker 1: Summit is in just four days. We start Sunday night
Speaker 1: at seven pm, We go Monday night at seven pm,
Speaker 1: and then we go Tuesday night at seven pm. Sunday
Speaker 1: and Monday are the live auctions with my live commentary
Speaker 1: on my YouTube channel. You'll be able to find all
Speaker 1: that information on my Twitter account and I'll be advertising
Speaker 1: that like crazy. But you can find my YouTube channel
Speaker 1: easily enough by searching the auction brief and putting in
Speaker 1: my name. But that's Sunday and Monday, live auctions with
Speaker 1: live commentary for two to two and a half hours.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be running my FWM and then Tuesday
Speaker 1: night we've got Doug Orth, Dave Richard, Jim Coventry, Matt Cruise,
Speaker 1: and I'm missing somebody important. It'll come to me later.
Speaker 1: But we have a great lineup of auction drafters who
Speaker 1: know with oh, Scott Pianowski. How can I forget Scott?
Speaker 1: We just had him on the show a couple of
Speaker 1: days ago. But all of those folks are going to
Speaker 1: come in and we're going to talk about auctions, everything
Speaker 1: from strategies to what they think this year, how they're
Speaker 1: approaching auctions, how can we make auctions bigger, how can
Speaker 1: we make them better? Everything that has to do with auctions.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a two hour auction panel, So folks,
Speaker 1: do not miss the salary cap summit. All right, let's
Speaker 1: do a quick run through of the other stuff. Don't forget.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF.
Speaker 1: You can find me at the Fantasy Football Lawyer on
Speaker 1: the Patreon network. Just four bucks a month, and if
Speaker 1: you want to be in the salary Cap drafts, a
Speaker 1: lot of the spots already taken, but you can still
Speaker 1: get in there. You have to be a member of
Speaker 1: the Patreon Just go in there. It's just four bucks
Speaker 1: and then you can put your interest on the post
Speaker 1: about the Salary Cap Summit leagues and hopefully you can
Speaker 1: get it there on one of those nights Sunday or Monday.
Speaker 1: And it is a league that will play out for
Speaker 1: the full season. You're not just doing a draft, you're
Speaker 1: doing a full league there. So a lot of the
Speaker 1: guys who did it last year threw in some money,
Speaker 1: donated to charity, had some fun. So I think that
Speaker 1: the same thing can happen this time around. So last
Speaker 1: but not least, don't forget them with FJA fantasy draft
Speaker 1: boards again this summer. It's ten percent off your order
Speaker 1: if you use my code auction brief. They're the best
Speaker 1: draft boards in the business. Get over there, order your boards. Now.
Speaker 1: We're getting into August here and you need to get
Speaker 1: those boards ordered so they get here. They are the
Speaker 1: best boards in the business. Use my code auction brief
Speaker 1: for ten percent off. All right, that's going to do
Speaker 1: it for the preliminary stuff today, Let's get into this
Speaker 1: auction from Saturday and let's see what we can learn
Speaker 1: auction talk. So with anything that I do, there's a
Speaker 1: little bit of setup work here that we got to
Speaker 1: get through. It's not this fun stuff, but it's really
Speaker 1: important to understanding what happened in the draft. And I
Speaker 1: know that going through mock drafts sometimes can be a
Speaker 1: little bit tiresome, but I think this is completely different
Speaker 1: than a snake draft or even a mock auction. This
Speaker 1: is real, live ammunition, and that's why it's so valuable.
Speaker 1: And I'm not here to just be like, hey, check
Speaker 1: out my team. But I have to do this from
Speaker 1: the perspective of myself because I can't get anyone else's head,
Speaker 1: and I have to talk about my team, to tell
Speaker 1: you how I did things and how I played it,
Speaker 1: and I think that's really valuable stuff. And I've been
Speaker 1: told in the past that people like hearing what I've
Speaker 1: done in an auction and so, and you know how
Speaker 1: I think about stuff, and that's why the salary Cap
Speaker 1: Summit was so successful last year. So that's what we're
Speaker 1: going to do here. You're going to go inside my
Speaker 1: mind as I walk through this draft, and we're going
Speaker 1: to do it in chronological order. But let's get some
Speaker 1: setup work done here. I want to tell you about
Speaker 1: who the players were, what the scoring and roster requirements are,
Speaker 1: what my approach was, and what my par sheets looked like.
Speaker 1: And then I'm going to tell you four themes that
Speaker 1: came out of this thing. And then you can be
Speaker 1: thinking about those themes as we go through, because I'm
Speaker 1: not really going to spend much time on them. I'm
Speaker 1: just going to tell you, hey, here's the general themes,
Speaker 1: and then you'll see them develop as we walk through
Speaker 1: the draft. All right, So let's get a little bit
Speaker 1: of this setup work done and move into the meat
Speaker 1: of the auction. All right, Just generally, don't forget this
Speaker 1: is an expert league. We have a two hundred dollars cap.
Speaker 1: We go really deep in our starting lineups. The players
Speaker 1: in the room are JJ Zacharieson, Jeff Ratcliffe, Doug Orth,
Speaker 1: Scott Pianowski, Colby Conway, Matt Harmon, Jim Coventry, Marcus Grant,
Speaker 1: and Michael Florio shared a team. Andy Barns, Patrick Dhugherty,
Speaker 1: Hutchinson Brown, Brad Evans and Brian Drake and Jamison Hutchinson
Speaker 1: did three quarters of the auction for Drake when he
Speaker 1: went on the air. So, folks, that's an incredible lineup.
Speaker 1: It's tough. We don't need to belabor the point. These
Speaker 1: guys know what they're doing. And like I said to
Speaker 1: Scott on Tuesday on discussions with Drew, not all these
Speaker 1: guys do auctions very often. Some of them this is
Speaker 1: their only auction every year. But they really know fantasy football,
Speaker 1: so that helps to make up for whatever skill they
Speaker 1: lack in auctions. They're just really good at fantasy football,
Speaker 1: so they know values really well and they're rarely going
Speaker 1: to get out of line. It's going to be a
Speaker 1: pretty solid group regardless. And we'll hear a little bit
Speaker 1: more about that and a little bit but don't forget
Speaker 1: how deep we go here. We start three wide receivers
Speaker 1: and we have to have three flexes with two running backs.
Speaker 1: It's a one QB league. But when you go three
Speaker 1: flexes deep, as Pianowski pointed out on Tuesday. Just the
Speaker 1: starting receivers themselves is forty two, and then when you
Speaker 1: figure you're starting some flexes, you're going fifty to sixty
Speaker 1: wide receivers deep every week. So this is a real
Speaker 1: exercise in how we approach a different form. And something
Speaker 1: that people talk about all the time that you just
Speaker 1: have to remember is that when you have this deep
Speaker 1: of a format, things change drastically. And one of the
Speaker 1: things that changes is that the top prices tend to
Speaker 1: be a little bit lower than normal. And while that
Speaker 1: sounds counterintuitive, it's actually quite logical because the top prices
Speaker 1: come down as people get nervous about filling out the
Speaker 1: back of the roster for those flex spots. That's what
Speaker 1: we saw in this room, and it's what I've seen
Speaker 1: historically when I've been in drafts with a smart people
Speaker 1: and b deep rosters. The top prices get shaved off
Speaker 1: a little bit, and that's what happened here. I think
Speaker 1: I probably underestimated that just to touch I know this
Speaker 1: in my head, but I should have thought about it
Speaker 1: just a little bit more. I was in on Jumior
Speaker 1: Gibbs and Bjohn Robinson in the mid fifties and was
Speaker 1: mixing it up there and ultimately backed off. But if
Speaker 1: I had thought about it a little bit harder, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't even have been at that point, because I think
Speaker 1: that's pretty normal that the top prices come down a
Speaker 1: little bit in such a deep league. So now we
Speaker 1: know what the league is all about. Let me tell
Speaker 1: you a little bit about my par sheet and my approach,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to give you what my team is,
Speaker 1: and then we can walk through how we got there
Speaker 1: with the themes that were present in the room. Typically,
Speaker 1: I'm only going to make two par sheets when I
Speaker 1: go into a draft. I know people like to do more,
Speaker 1: and sometimes I will do more, and this is one
Speaker 1: of those situations where I decided to do that. And
Speaker 1: the reason for that was that I really felt like
Speaker 1: there might be an opportunity to get a top level quarterback.
Speaker 1: We've had this conversation before. I'm not going to go
Speaker 1: over it again. I think in a room where people
Speaker 1: play quarterback chicken, you can sometimes find really good quarterbacks
Speaker 1: for cheap. I did in this draft. However, I also
Speaker 1: was thinking about Josh Allen when I made up my
Speaker 1: first par sheet, so I allotted twenty one dollars for
Speaker 1: Josh Allen on my first par sheet. And it's kind
Speaker 1: of funny that I didn't actually bid twenty one when
Speaker 1: I had the chance to for Allan. But i'll tell
Speaker 1: you why in a little bit. So I made a
Speaker 1: QB PAR sheet that was twenty one dollars to try
Speaker 1: to get Josh Allen. I made another PAR sheet that
Speaker 1: was in case brock Bowers went too cheap. And when
Speaker 1: I say too cheap, I meant if I can get
Speaker 1: the guy below thirty five, preferably thirty one, thirty two,
Speaker 1: maybe even thirty, I was going to run with it. Now,
Speaker 1: I didn't think that was going to happen in this room.
Speaker 1: It didn't, but I wanted to be prepared, so that's
Speaker 1: why I had three par sheets instead of the normal two.
Speaker 1: My last PAR sheet was a cheap quarterback par sheet
Speaker 1: and that's the one I ended up using. And I
Speaker 1: got to say, this is kind of funny. I just
Speaker 1: got a kick out of this. This is really just anecdotal,
Speaker 1: but I thought it was pretty funny. I've been doing
Speaker 1: a lot of par sheets in the last couple of
Speaker 1: years and it started to become pretty instinctual. So I'm
Speaker 1: sitting in my hotel room, as is the tradition, about
Speaker 1: three or four o'clock in the morning on Friday night
Speaker 1: when I have to be at the King's Classic at ten,
Speaker 1: and I'm doing my par sheets. And I'm not putting
Speaker 1: that off because I think I'm too good and I'm
Speaker 1: not ignoring my own advice to prepare. But I've been
Speaker 1: thinking about my par sheets for weeks, so I've already
Speaker 1: got the ideas in my head. And here's the funny part.
Speaker 1: After I do my quarterback and tight end heavy par sheets,
Speaker 1: I go, Okay, here's what I think I want to
Speaker 1: do if that other stuff doesn't work out. And I
Speaker 1: went down and I took my first pass at the
Speaker 1: bar sheet. And Folks, in all the years I've been
Speaker 1: doing par sheets, I have never once taken a first
Speaker 1: pass at a par sheet and been dead on two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. And that's what happened. I've been drinking all night.
Speaker 1: I'm sitting in my hotel room, tired of sack, just
Speaker 1: partying all night, three thirty in the morning, and I
Speaker 1: just ripped a two hundred dollars par sheet on the
Speaker 1: first guess and I didn't touch it. I didn't touch
Speaker 1: it because I liked it that much and I was
Speaker 1: that tuned in and I said to myself, I think
Speaker 1: it's just time to go to bed, and so it
Speaker 1: was pretty funny. I enjoyed it a lot, and this
Speaker 1: par sheet ended up being pretty darn good. And you'll
Speaker 1: see that I wavered from it with i'mon Ross Saint Brown.
Speaker 1: But otherwise this was a pretty strong par sheet and
Speaker 1: it was pretty accurate. Despite feeling that maybe I didn't
Speaker 1: really do what I wanted to do at times, it
Speaker 1: was pretty accurate. And part of that is something that
Speaker 1: I preach about all the time, is that you have
Speaker 1: to go back and look at what actually happened. And
Speaker 1: I had this conversation at dinner, because we go to
Speaker 1: dinner right after this all ends, and it's a bunch
Speaker 1: of guys that were in the room. JJ Winner was
Speaker 1: watching the draft, Jamison was in the draft, Pianowski's in
Speaker 1: the draft, Drake is in the draft. All these guys
Speaker 1: are having their impressions, and those impressions are really important
Speaker 1: to what actually happened, because sometimes you think something happened
Speaker 1: and it didn't actually go down that way. So it's
Speaker 1: really important to have these post mortems about what you did,
Speaker 1: all right. So that's the setup and my par sheet
Speaker 1: for the cheap quarterback that I that I put down
Speaker 1: that was perfect. The first time I went through was
Speaker 1: the following quarterback three bucks, running back one forty four,
Speaker 1: running back two twenty eight. And you'll notice that's a
Speaker 1: little bit different than my normal build. I normally dump
Speaker 1: out of RB two, but I think the value is
Speaker 1: there in the mid tiers at running back, where we
Speaker 1: usually call it the dead zone. I think that that's
Speaker 1: now switched to a wide receiver dead zone. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about that in a minute. So RB two twenty eight,
Speaker 1: wide receiver one thirty two, wide receiver two twenty six,
Speaker 1: wide receiver three eighteen, tight end five flexes eleven, nine
Speaker 1: and eight, and then my bench six, four, three and
Speaker 1: then one one one. So I'm putting almost no money
Speaker 1: into my bench. And that's something that has changed a
Speaker 1: little bit for me over the years, not only in
Speaker 1: deep leagues like the King's Classic, but in most leagues.
Speaker 1: In most of my pars sheet builds. You're going to
Speaker 1: notice this year that I do not care about your bench,
Speaker 1: and I've cared less and less about that over the years.
Speaker 1: That's something that I'm shifting away from and if I
Speaker 1: can save money on my starters and feel good, Okay,
Speaker 1: that's fine. Let's get some depth. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: I just don't care. I want to be aggressive on
Speaker 1: the waiver wire early and I want to be able
Speaker 1: to cut people. All right. So that's it right there,
Speaker 1: as far as the setup with my parshiet, Let's talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about what were the themes that I
Speaker 1: pulled from the draft. And then after I finished talking
Speaker 1: about them, you're going to think, well, we didn't discuss
Speaker 1: that very much. And that's exactly right, because I want
Speaker 1: you to just take those themes and I want you
Speaker 1: to think about them as we roll through the draft chronologically.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about four themes I pulled from
Speaker 1: the King's Classic auction on Saturday. The first theme is
Speaker 1: one that we beat to death on Tuesday with Scott Pianowski.
Speaker 1: But I have to say it again, this was a
Speaker 1: tight conservative room. And so what we have to decide
Speaker 1: when this is happening in the room is how are
Speaker 1: we preceding the rest of the auction Because you find
Speaker 1: out really early on that this is a tight conservative group,
Speaker 1: and what are you going to do when you notice
Speaker 1: that that's what's going on in the draft room. This
Speaker 1: is really important stuff. How do I approach a tight
Speaker 1: conservative room? And my idea was that I was going
Speaker 1: to strike early and not have any regrets about going
Speaker 1: for top level players, because, as I said at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the summer, it's all about the high level
Speaker 1: producers that are going to win you fantasy titles, and
Speaker 1: getting a bunch of eight dollar guys isn't necessarily going
Speaker 1: to do it for you. You have to have difference makers.
Speaker 1: So in a tight conservative room, I think we need
Speaker 1: to be ready to strike. So the theme of this
Speaker 1: draft was it was a tight conservative group that really
Speaker 1: knew their values. The second theme I pulled out of
Speaker 1: it was that I think that in a typical online auction,
Speaker 1: you're getting a countdown clock at ten to nine, eight seven,
Speaker 1: so people know when they have to bid. But as
Speaker 1: we're doing a live auction in the King's Classic with
Speaker 1: a professional auctioneer, it changed his things, okay, and it
Speaker 1: changed that draft. Now Matt Cruzy, friend of the show,
Speaker 1: He's going to be on the Salary Cap summit on
Speaker 1: Monday night or excuse me night, Tuesday night. The fourth
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about this a little bit
Speaker 1: with him, but him and I have had the conversation before.
Speaker 1: He knows where I stand on this stuff, and so
Speaker 1: this opinion won't be a surprise to him. But I
Speaker 1: think there was a lack of poker against each other.
Speaker 1: I think there was a lack of headbutting against each
Speaker 1: other in the draft, and I think I can attribute
Speaker 1: that to the time everyone had to think about their bids.
Speaker 1: One of the benefits that I've always said that we
Speaker 1: have as people who are more prepared, who have a parshet,
Speaker 1: and who study more the craft of auction drafting, I
Speaker 1: think one of our benefits is that we can force
Speaker 1: people into mistakes by using the pace of the auction
Speaker 1: to do it. And that pace, a lot of times
Speaker 1: involves that countdown, the going once, the going twice, The
Speaker 1: beeping of the clock in front of you online gives
Speaker 1: you that pressure, builds that anxiety and forces you to
Speaker 1: make decisions. I think what ended up happening with the
Speaker 1: live auctioneer was that there was a lot of time
Speaker 1: to think after people were out. He gave everyone time
Speaker 1: to bid, and that's okay, that's a style we all
Speaker 1: have to adjust to and we all have the same auctioneer.
Speaker 1: It's not like that's something that's unique to me. But
Speaker 1: I believe it nerved a little bit of my skill
Speaker 1: and ability to manipulate the auction room because everyone had
Speaker 1: a lot of time to think, and I believe that
Speaker 1: contributed to the stability and the pricing as well. We
Speaker 1: just didn't see a lot of wacky stuff. And again,
Speaker 1: it's smart guys, and if you give them time to think,
Speaker 1: they're not going to do wacky things. If you pressure them,
Speaker 1: they might, they might make mistakes. So I think that
Speaker 1: was a theme of the draft too, and I think
Speaker 1: overall the stable pricing was a result of it. The
Speaker 1: third theme I noticed was that despite the fact that
Speaker 1: we've spent the whole summer talking about how personnel is
Speaker 1: changing in the NFL and how wide receiver twos are
Speaker 1: less valuable than ever before, the prices did not reflect
Speaker 1: that in this auction. And I'm going to tell you
Speaker 1: I don't think the prices are reflecting that in general
Speaker 1: in the MOX that we're doing either. So I think
Speaker 1: one of the big things I'm going to be hammering
Speaker 1: in my drafts and in my draft plan coming up
Speaker 1: for football guys that I'm writing soon is that running
Speaker 1: backs showed greater fantasy utility last year than they ever
Speaker 1: have and wide receiver twos tanked yet dot dot dot
Speaker 1: prices didn't reflect that, and they aren't reflecting that. And
Speaker 1: there's our edge. I believe there is our edge. Look,
Speaker 1: I just did a quick glance at last year. But
Speaker 1: the wide receiver twenty four last year averaged twelve and
Speaker 1: a half PPR points per game. The running back twenty
Speaker 1: four average twelve point two PPR points per game. Point
Speaker 1: three difference. And when you consider that middle tier of
Speaker 1: wide receivers that we're going to talk about was going
Speaker 1: for twenty two, twenty five, twenty eight, thirty two, and
Speaker 1: you could get a similar running back for twelve or
Speaker 1: fourteen or sixteen or nine. Folks, folks, what are we doing?
Speaker 1: What are we doing? We're making it harder than it
Speaker 1: needs to be. I love chasing receivers too. I did
Speaker 1: it in this draft too. I'm not jumping on anybody's head.
Speaker 1: I'm here to say we're missing the plot. We are
Speaker 1: missing the plot, all right. And the number four thing is,
Speaker 1: once again, I believe we had a stubborn quarterback room,
Speaker 1: and this opened up some value as well. I don't
Speaker 1: think that's going to happen in a lot of home leagues,
Speaker 1: but I do think in sharp rooms it's going to happen.
Speaker 1: And if you're in one of those rooms, you need
Speaker 1: to remember that there is some opportunity there at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Other than Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, I don't believe
Speaker 1: a quarterback went for over seven dollars in the entire time.
Speaker 1: No quarterback went for more than seven dollars except for
Speaker 1: Jackson and Allen. So there is an opportunity there. Okay,
Speaker 1: those are the themes. Now that we've got that out
Speaker 1: of the way, we've got a nice solid half hour
Speaker 1: here to walk through this auction and see what happened
Speaker 1: and see how the results turned out the way that
Speaker 1: they did. Okay, So I think it's beneficial at this
Speaker 1: point to reverse engineer this thing by saying what my
Speaker 1: team is so that you can see how I build it,
Speaker 1: if that makes any sense, because I don't think it
Speaker 1: does any good for me to start talking here and
Speaker 1: you have no idea what I ended up doing. So
Speaker 1: my team is as follows, Drake May my only quarterback.
Speaker 1: I paid six dollars, Sakwon Barkley forty dollars, Jalen Warren sixteen,
Speaker 1: Kyle manungai nine, JK. Dobbins seven, Tank Bigsby five. Yes,
Speaker 1: I cuff sa Kwon Barkley. You want to fight about it?
Speaker 1: Braylen Allen for a dollar, Emmanuel Wilson for a dollar.
Speaker 1: At wide receiver, I have a'man Ross Brown for forty nine,
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddell for twenty nine, Michael Pittman for twelve, Wandale
Speaker 1: Robinson for eleven, Romeo Dobbs for five, and Dontavian Wicks
Speaker 1: for two. And then my tight ends are a pile
Speaker 1: of garbage. I got garbage pile one for three dollars
Speaker 1: and garbage Pile two for two dollars. Sorry, I'm a
Speaker 1: little slap happy. I got Dalton Schultz for three bucks
Speaker 1: in Kobe Parkinson for two easily the worst part of
Speaker 1: my roster. And I'm not happy about my last couple
Speaker 1: wide receivers, but I love my quarterback. Let me just
Speaker 1: say this. My top four receivers and top four running
Speaker 1: backs I'm very happy about, and I'm happy about Drake May.
Speaker 1: The rest of it's a little bit of a question mark,
Speaker 1: but everybody has that, so we'll talk about those prices
Speaker 1: again as we go through. But I wanted to put
Speaker 1: that out there so you know exactly what we're working
Speaker 1: with and how we got there so early in the draft.
Speaker 1: What was my approach? Well, I drew the number four
Speaker 1: nomination spot. And if you want a little bit more
Speaker 1: in depth about my early nomination, head over to the
Speaker 1: Patreon network because I just dropped a nine minute video
Speaker 1: about the conversation around Saquon Barkley as my nomination with
Speaker 1: the fourth overall pick. But let me break it down
Speaker 1: a little bit quicker here because you can get nine
Speaker 1: minutes over there about that. But I had the fourth pick,
Speaker 1: and I've been thinking for weeks what am I going
Speaker 1: to do with that fourth nomination? I shouldn't call it
Speaker 1: a pick fourth nomination, and I decided that I wanted
Speaker 1: to do Sequon Barkley with that fourth nomination and why
Speaker 1: because I felt like he was being disrespected a little
Speaker 1: bit and would be somebody that people might not be
Speaker 1: as interested in as they were in previous years. So
Speaker 1: I was really hoping to get Barkley thirty six to
Speaker 1: thirty nine dollars. I ended up getting him for forty
Speaker 1: I did nominate him with the fourth pick, got him
Speaker 1: for forty bucks, and I was pretty happy about at
Speaker 1: the time. Now, as I said in my Patreon video,
Speaker 1: it turned out to be a little bit irritating, and
Speaker 1: I don't think it was the greatest nomination. And the
Speaker 1: reason for that is because I think I probably should
Speaker 1: have pivoted off of Barkley once I realized what was
Speaker 1: happening early in the draft, because the conservative players in
Speaker 1: the room, the conservative managers, did not give out a
Speaker 1: sitting down bonus. Now, folks, this is going to happen
Speaker 1: in just about every one of your drafts. But as
Speaker 1: I've said before, it's not going to happen in every draft,
Speaker 1: and in the sharper rooms, they're going to be watching
Speaker 1: out for it. And I don't believe there was a
Speaker 1: sitting down bonus here. We had. The number one player
Speaker 1: that was nominated was Kyron Williams. He went for twenty five,
Speaker 1: and then it was Junior Gibbs for fifty eight, Christian
Speaker 1: Watson for twenty one, and then I called out Barkley
Speaker 1: and got him for forty. So I don't believe there
Speaker 1: was a sitting down bonus. Happening here, although I could
Speaker 1: argue that Barkley was maybe a couple dollars off, But again,
Speaker 1: when it comes back to talking about the top level players,
Speaker 1: you're never really going to get much of a discount
Speaker 1: on the top level players. I got lucky getting Brown
Speaker 1: last year for thirty six bucks. He went for thirty
Speaker 1: eight this year. He was another guy that I thought
Speaker 1: about going with, but I thought that was getting a
Speaker 1: little bit too cute, and I thought that he would
Speaker 1: be a little bit more expensive than I wanted him
Speaker 1: to be because people are generally off sa quon. I'm
Speaker 1: pretty excited about Chase Brown, so that's why I did
Speaker 1: what I did. But again, head over to the Patreon
Speaker 1: and check out that conversation. I think it's a fun one.
Speaker 1: I think that I made a bit of a mistake
Speaker 1: early in this draft because I was counting on a
Speaker 1: sitting down bonus and I didn't get one, and so
Speaker 1: I probably could have played it a little more conservative early.
Speaker 1: But I believe, just like at a poker table, when
Speaker 1: things are conservative, you need to be aggressive. And so
Speaker 1: my thought all along was that I was going to
Speaker 1: strike early and that I was not going to have
Speaker 1: regrets about buying a couple of really elite players. And
Speaker 1: that's what I did with Saquon Barkley and A'man Ross
Speaker 1: Saint Brown. And here's the funny thing, I didn't even
Speaker 1: realize it happened this quickly. And this is why you
Speaker 1: have to go back and look at this stuff. I
Speaker 1: got Saquon with a fourth pick and I got A'man
Speaker 1: Ross Saint Brown with the thirteenth pick. All right, so
Speaker 1: the thirteenth nomination, I already had two players for eighty
Speaker 1: nine bucks. It affected my draft greatly, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to tell you exactly what happened with Aman Ross Saint Brown.
Speaker 1: I told myself before I went into this draft that
Speaker 1: I was not going to let people get away with
Speaker 1: early deals on elite players. Now, the Kyron Williams nomination
Speaker 1: bothered me a little bit because I wanted to keep going,
Speaker 1: and when he went for twenty five, I was a
Speaker 1: little frustrated by that. But I wanted to stick with
Speaker 1: my plan early to go for more elite players. And
Speaker 1: I felt like, even if that was a deal for Kyron,
Speaker 1: it was going to affect my draft and I didn't
Speaker 1: want it to do it that. I didn't want to
Speaker 1: do that that quickly. I didn't want to lock myself
Speaker 1: in that quickly, and it was a good thing I didn't,
Speaker 1: because if I had stuck him in my RB two spot,
Speaker 1: I would have felt good initially being three dollars ahead
Speaker 1: of my twenty eight dollars estimation, but it would have
Speaker 1: gone poorly when I got Saint Brown. So anyway back
Speaker 1: to the point, which is that I had two players
Speaker 1: in the first round for eighty nine bucks. But remember
Speaker 1: I told you on the recent walkthrough that in those
Speaker 1: first two rounds, I wanted two guys, and that's what
Speaker 1: I did. I was very happy about that. Okay, that's
Speaker 1: a plan that I executed well, and I felt fairly
Speaker 1: good about it until some other things happened that made
Speaker 1: me just a little bit irritated that I didn't have
Speaker 1: just a little bit more patience. But I feel like
Speaker 1: sometimes the patience thing can backfire, especially when we're trying
Speaker 1: to grab those first and second round picks. So what
Speaker 1: happens with Saint Brown is the bidding starts slowing down
Speaker 1: in the mid forties, and I'm thinking to myself, Drew,
Speaker 1: you are not going to forgive yourself if one of
Speaker 1: your favorite first round players ends up going for less
Speaker 1: than fifty dollars because I talked about this a couple
Speaker 1: weeks ago when I said, guys that I thought I
Speaker 1: would have more of that are going too expensive. Amon
Speaker 1: Ra was one of those that I listed because I
Speaker 1: said I thought I'd be able to get him for
Speaker 1: less than fifty bucks, and yet every time I turn around,
Speaker 1: he's going for fifty or more. So I said, in
Speaker 1: this draft, I really think that it's going to be
Speaker 1: hard for me to sit here and stare at aman
Speaker 1: Raj Saint Brown in the mid to upper forties and
Speaker 1: tell myself, gosh, I missed that opportunity when you see
Speaker 1: players going for more later. So the way that it
Speaker 1: happens is the extra bit of thinking time that I
Speaker 1: talked about in the earlier theme when I talked about
Speaker 1: the auctioneer and how people were able to think. It
Speaker 1: actually aided me here. It helped me here. And it
Speaker 1: can be argued that it didn't help me because I
Speaker 1: never would have been forty nine if it had been quicker.
Speaker 1: But I like how it turned out because a lot
Speaker 1: of times in this league, I don't get an elite
Speaker 1: player like that for that much of a price. I
Speaker 1: got Pooka for thirty nine last year, so a'm and
Speaker 1: rah for forty nine is a little bit out of
Speaker 1: my comfort zone. I was proud of myself for that.
Speaker 1: That's not normally something I do, and you got to
Speaker 1: check yourself on stuff like that. So what ends up
Speaker 1: happening is it stalls out in the mid forties. I'm
Speaker 1: not in on the bidding and at forty eight dollars,
Speaker 1: harm and holds the player and he says, anybody, anybody, anybody,
Speaker 1: And then I jumped in right into the wire at
Speaker 1: the last second and he said forty nine. Because I
Speaker 1: said to myself, I'm not going to stare at I'm
Speaker 1: on rass Saint Brown for the next three hours for
Speaker 1: forty eight bucks and be pissed. Okay, you never regret
Speaker 1: spending that extra dollar or two for a good player,
Speaker 1: And that all went through my head and I just
Speaker 1: said forty nine. It was a bit impulsive. But one
Speaker 1: of the things you have to remember is I don't
Speaker 1: care so much about the price because it's about market price.
Speaker 1: I care about having the player there. I'm not trying
Speaker 1: to get a deal on i'm on Rassain Brown. I'm
Speaker 1: just saying he's less than fifty bucks, I gotta go
Speaker 1: for it. There's nobody that's more money in the bank
Speaker 1: with one hundred and fifteen catches and ten touchdowns the
Speaker 1: last three years than this guy. So for forty nine bucks,
Speaker 1: I was happy with it. Here's the cascade effect that
Speaker 1: it had on my roster. Because I had gotten Barkley
Speaker 1: for forty and as I said, my par sheet had
Speaker 1: him for forty four. I was feeling great that I
Speaker 1: was plus four on my par sheet and then I
Speaker 1: blew that out of the water with Saint Brown for
Speaker 1: forty nine because I had allotted thirty two for my
Speaker 1: wide receiver. One. You can call this a mistake. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that it is. That would be overly critical
Speaker 1: of myself, but I lose seventeen dollars to my par sheet. There.
Speaker 1: That's a massive swing, and I think one that I
Speaker 1: probably should not have taken. So it was a bit impulsive.
Speaker 1: But I also wasn't mad about it because I told
Speaker 1: myself I was going to be aggressive and strike early.
Speaker 1: But I went from plus four to minus thirteen on
Speaker 1: my par sheet. Here's what I love about the par sheet.
Speaker 1: Now I've got to adjust. Can I take money off
Speaker 1: of my ride receiver two. Well not really. I'm at
Speaker 1: twenty six bucks and I'm at eighteen for my wide
Speaker 1: receiver three. I think what I'm gonna have to do
Speaker 1: is shave a bunch of money off of RB two,
Speaker 1: which of course is something I'm very comfortable with and
Speaker 1: it's something that i do all the time. So we're
Speaker 1: gonna get there in a minute with how that happened.
Speaker 1: But the beginning of the draft really proceeds, as it
Speaker 1: does in most drafts, in a really linear fashion. And
Speaker 1: don't forget something that I say all the time is
Speaker 1: that people want to nominate the top guys, and even
Speaker 1: if it isn't like straight down the list like BOOKA
Speaker 1: Chase Jaysen, they want to nominate the top guys. In
Speaker 1: the first two rounds twenty eight nominations, only two players
Speaker 1: were nominated that were outside the top twenty four running
Speaker 1: back or wide receiver or top twelve tight end. That
Speaker 1: was Christian Watson and DeVante Adams. So twenty six of
Speaker 1: the first twenty eight players are essentially elite players. This
Speaker 1: is something that I've been hammering on this summer more
Speaker 1: but I want you to remember this. People will nominate
Speaker 1: the top guys. So it's important for you just to
Speaker 1: nominate your top guys that you want. So things really
Speaker 1: unfold in a pretty linear fashion as prices are really
Speaker 1: slotting in quite nicely, players like Christian McCaffrey forty six,
Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker forty, Jonathan Taylor forty two, Ashton Gent forty three.
Speaker 1: And I think that I have a little bit of
Speaker 1: comfort there in the fact that I like Barkley for
Speaker 1: forty when you're talking about Taylor for forty two, Walker
Speaker 1: for forty, Gent for forty three. I think what got
Speaker 1: me a little bit irritated was that there was a
Speaker 1: little pocket in there where Devon h Chan went for
Speaker 1: thirty four and where she Rice went for twenty seven.
Speaker 1: And I got frustrated because I thought, Okay, this is
Speaker 1: just too cheap, and I'm the one who was pushing
Speaker 1: those numbers up to where they were, and I was
Speaker 1: frustrated that other people weren't doing that. And I'm not
Speaker 1: the only person that was bidding, but I was just
Speaker 1: sitting over there just shaking my head, kind of stewing,
Speaker 1: like this is too cheap, and I don't know what
Speaker 1: we're doing. I thought it was an inflection point. And
Speaker 1: I was texting with JJ Winner during the draft a
Speaker 1: couple times just to say, gosh, did you see that
Speaker 1: or did you see this? Or I got to do
Speaker 1: this or that. It wasn't like anything nefarious or anything.
Speaker 1: We were just talking about like some trends in the draft,
Speaker 1: and I'm like, gosh, what's up with Achan and Rice there?
Speaker 1: And I thought it was an inflection point. I thought
Speaker 1: that all of a sudden, we were about to see
Speaker 1: some cheaper deals and here's a weird one. Here's a
Speaker 1: weird curve ball for you. It turned out to be
Speaker 1: a false inflection point because it really was just two
Speaker 1: guys back to back that people are nervous about a
Speaker 1: Chan and Rice. They're nervous about him for different reasons,
Speaker 1: but they're nervous about him because price is shot back
Speaker 1: up right after those two guys. That's something to remember.
Speaker 1: Sometimes the inflection point looks like it's coming and it
Speaker 1: ain't quite there yet. And that's what happened on Saturday.
Speaker 1: I thought that was an interesting curve ball I wanted
Speaker 1: to point out. So the price for Saint Brown ends
Speaker 1: up being forty nine Jackson Smith and Jigba goes for fifty,
Speaker 1: Puka go for fifty, Lamb goes for forty three. This
Speaker 1: all happens early in the third round, and it's pretty
Speaker 1: interesting because the market was set. The market's just straight
Speaker 1: up ben set at that point, and Saint Brown was
Speaker 1: just going to be a dollar cheaper than elite guys
Speaker 1: like Jaysen and Puka. And I'm not saying Saint Brown
Speaker 1: isn't elite, but the fifty dollars price getting just over
Speaker 1: Saint Brown I thought was super interesting as well. And
Speaker 1: the early conservative pricing then starts to have an effect
Speaker 1: on the room as we get deeper into the draft.
Speaker 1: We get to the end of the second round, and
Speaker 1: remember what I talked about, We're still bidding on elite
Speaker 1: players here, and the prices went up because there was
Speaker 1: early conservative bidding. And that's what's going to happen. That's
Speaker 1: the that's the cardinal rule of auctions that if things
Speaker 1: are tight early, they're going to loosen up. Davante Smith
Speaker 1: at two point one to three and a Mecca Igbuca
Speaker 1: at two point one four, meaning the last two nominations
Speaker 1: of the second round. DeVante Smith went for thirty four
Speaker 1: bucks and a Mecca Agbuca went for thirty five bucks.
Speaker 1: Those are high prices, folks. If they're nominated at a
Speaker 1: different time, those prices are going to be much lower.
Speaker 1: Zay Flowers went for thirty one at the end of
Speaker 1: the first round. So remember that when there's early conservative pricing,
Speaker 1: you're going to see a spike and you need to
Speaker 1: get in there. And that's part of what I was doing,
Speaker 1: was trying to get in and get my make my
Speaker 1: strikes before things got out of hand. And I would
Speaker 1: argue that thirty four for DeVante Smith and thirty five
Speaker 1: for Agbuca are too high, and thirty one for Flowers.
Speaker 1: Those are all guys that should be three to five
Speaker 1: to seven dollars even cheaper than that. And I'm not
Speaker 1: saying they're horrible prices, but they're they're part of the inflation.
Speaker 1: When it came to Scarce quote unquote elite borderline wide
Speaker 1: receiver one wide receiver two prices now. Right about this
Speaker 1: time too, we saw an interesting quarterback play from Colby Conway.
Speaker 1: He nominates Josh Allen, and instead of nominating Josh Allen
Speaker 1: for twelve or thirteen to fourteen bucks, he nominates him
Speaker 1: for twenty bucks, and it's what Pianowski says as the
Speaker 1: price line bit. He nominated him for a mouth that
Speaker 1: he thought that he was fine paying. And I think
Speaker 1: there's a psychological aspect here too that I love with
Speaker 1: the play, which is to say the word twenty automatically
Speaker 1: gets people like eh, because if he says twelve and
Speaker 1: people go fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, and they take their time and
Speaker 1: they get up to nineteen, maybe they don't feel bad
Speaker 1: about saying twenty or twenty one. But if you just
Speaker 1: rip off twenty right away and people are just like,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying twenty one, folks, it worked on me.
Speaker 1: I had a part sheet where twenty one dollars was
Speaker 1: the exact amount I was going to pay for a quarterback.
Speaker 1: If his name was Josh Allen, I could have bid
Speaker 1: twenty one and been right on my par sheet, But
Speaker 1: at that point in time, I didn't feel like that's
Speaker 1: what I wanted to do, because Allen was nominated with
Speaker 1: pick three point h one, and at that point I
Speaker 1: had already decided I couldn't afford a top level quarterback
Speaker 1: because at overpaid for Brown and I'm sitting there minus
Speaker 1: thirteen on my bar sheet, I just couldn't do it.
Speaker 1: So it's a nice play by Colby. I have to pivot.
Speaker 1: I can't do much about it now. At this point
Speaker 1: in time, too, we saw an interesting run from three
Speaker 1: point eight to three point one to three where DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift went for twenty five, Judkins went for twenty seven,
Speaker 1: Baseial toot And went for twenty and Travian Henderson went
Speaker 1: for twenty two. Now, I'm not saying I hate those prices,
Speaker 1: but those feel like a little bit of inflated prices
Speaker 1: for that point in the draft because of the fact
Speaker 1: that they're all mid to upper level RB twos, and
Speaker 1: everyone is interested in those guys at the RB two level,
Speaker 1: even though there's plenty of players who are cheaper who
Speaker 1: represent RB two value just as well. So I thought
Speaker 1: that was an interesting run there. I just feel like
Speaker 1: all of those guys are inflated just a little bit.
Speaker 1: Swift at twenty five, he's probably twenty two, right, Judkins
Speaker 1: at twenty seven, he's probably at twenty four dollars player too.
Speaker 1: At twenty he should be seventeen eighteen bucks. Now, I
Speaker 1: understand people are excited and we're seeing Tooton go up
Speaker 1: and up Traviann Henderson twenty two. When you consider Ramandro
Speaker 1: Stevenson went for eighteen, I think that's three to four
Speaker 1: bucks too expensive. But again, we're seeing in general increase
Speaker 1: and pricing here. And when I said earlier that we've
Speaker 1: got some wide receivers that are going in that range,
Speaker 1: we have these obvious running back twos that are going
Speaker 1: in the same range. But then there's a lot of
Speaker 1: running back twos where it just fell off a cliff
Speaker 1: a little bit later, and I knew I needed to
Speaker 1: get one of those guys. So I went after Jalen
Speaker 1: Warren because I felt like a guy who can get
Speaker 1: me forty or fifty catches would make a nice RB two.
Speaker 1: I believe in Jalen Warren, and I believe that he's
Speaker 1: going to get plenty of touches, even though Rico Dawdle's there.
Speaker 1: So sixteen bucks gets me back in the par sheet.
Speaker 1: I gained twelve bucks there, and now I'm back in
Speaker 1: the game. It was around this time that I saw
Speaker 1: that I could have pivoted to a different wide receiver one,
Speaker 1: but obviously I I had already made my bed, but
Speaker 1: for just for informational purposes. Right at the beginning of
Speaker 1: round four, the four oh one, two and oh three
Speaker 1: where Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Drake London they went
Speaker 1: for thirty five, forty four, and thirty nine, respectively. So
Speaker 1: if you want to bail out of that wide receiver one,
Speaker 1: which is what I originally had planned to do, you
Speaker 1: can get a guy for the upper thirties low forties
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense as a wide receiver one.
Speaker 1: He just won't be that elite wide receiver one. You
Speaker 1: could argue that Justin Jefferson obviously is one, but I
Speaker 1: think we all know that he's got quarterback problems. Drake
Speaker 1: London at thirty nine looks like a really nice price,
Speaker 1: And if I had not had Saint Brown, I would
Speaker 1: have been in on Nico or London at that point.
Speaker 1: So I'm back in it here because as round four opens,
Speaker 1: I'm minus thirteen on my bar sheet still and I
Speaker 1: got to do something here. So Jalen Warren was my nomination,
Speaker 1: and I knew that he wasn't going to be very popular.
Speaker 1: Luckily I was correct on what I shouldn't say. I
Speaker 1: knew I was hoping he would not be very popular,
Speaker 1: and he wasn't sixteen bucks felt like a great buy
Speaker 1: for an RB two, and then right after this, Roma
Speaker 1: Dunze goes for twenty bucks, and I'm looking at the
Speaker 1: wide receivers and I'm thinking, boy, oh boy, it is
Speaker 1: getting a little bit thin. And I think I texted
Speaker 1: JJ at this point and said, boy oh, I need
Speaker 1: a guy. I need a guy right now. But it's thin,
Speaker 1: and it's starting to get to the point where some
Speaker 1: of these guys are are going to be the last
Speaker 1: types of the wide receiver two area that I'm looking at.
Speaker 1: We're talking about guys with explosive alpha potential that are
Speaker 1: still going in the twenty mid to upper twenties. So
Speaker 1: when Jalen Waddle came up, I never expected to have
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle, but he ends up going to twenty nine
Speaker 1: for me, and I had said twenty six on my
Speaker 1: par sheet, So I lose another three dollars. Now I'm
Speaker 1: down four dollars still, but I had to act because
Speaker 1: it was getting thin. And boy boy, I'm happy that
Speaker 1: I was actually right here in making this call, because
Speaker 1: initially when this happened, I was not that excited about
Speaker 1: the price for Waddle. It suddenly became a lot better
Speaker 1: as we moved on. Inflation hits because at this point
Speaker 1: we see Parker Washington get nominated and he goes for
Speaker 1: sixteen dollars. I feel like that's a pretty big number.
Speaker 1: I have not seen the Jacksonville receivers as expensive as
Speaker 1: I saw them in this room. I believe Brian Thomas
Speaker 1: went for eighteen, Jacoby for thirteen, and Parker Washington for sixteen.
Speaker 1: I feel like all of those numbers are higher than
Speaker 1: I've been seeing. I was a little bit surprised by that,
Speaker 1: but then again, people in the business are high on
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville offense, as they should be. The inflation continues here.
Speaker 1: Ted Roha McMillan goes for twenty six. That's not a
Speaker 1: bad price. It's a few bucks more than I want.
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams goes for twenty one. But here's the murderer's row.
Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin goes for two. T Higgins goes for thirty six,
Speaker 1: and Mike Evans goes for thirty thirty two. There's a
Speaker 1: little bit of a question there. But then McKay lemon
Speaker 1: goes for sixteen. Folks, Parker Washington and mackay Lemon are
Speaker 1: not sixteen dollars players and McLaurin, Higgins and Evans they're
Speaker 1: great players, and I am not arguing with somebody paying
Speaker 1: that price, okay, because at that moment that's what you
Speaker 1: have to do. But here's further evidence if you ever
Speaker 1: needed it, that tears are so incredibly important. And that's
Speaker 1: why I felt an urgency to act for Wattle and
Speaker 1: Boyle Boy. Did I feel good when McLaurin, Higgins and
Speaker 1: Evans all went in the thirties and I had Wattle
Speaker 1: for twenty nine So that felt great. That felt like
Speaker 1: one of the best moments for me in this auction.
Speaker 1: And I want to point out something here because I
Speaker 1: think it's important when you pay a higher price for
Speaker 1: a player, a lot of times people will say, well,
Speaker 1: that's where I value him, or that's what I think
Speaker 1: he's going to go for. But I want to make
Speaker 1: an analogy to ADP here, which I don't do very often,
Speaker 1: but I think it's important because a lot of us
Speaker 1: see things through the lens of ADP because that's just
Speaker 1: how we've been indoctrinated with fantasy football information over the years,
Speaker 1: and I think it makes the point a little bit
Speaker 1: more simple to understand. If you say, well, I paid
Speaker 1: sixteen dollars for Mackay Lemon because that's what he's worth,
Speaker 1: or Parker Washington because that's what he's worth. That may
Speaker 1: very well turn out to be true, but at the
Speaker 1: time you paid that money for that player, was that
Speaker 1: player worth it? And I would submit to you that no,
Speaker 1: the players are not worth sixteen dollars at that point.
Speaker 1: So I'm not saying it's a terrible price if they
Speaker 1: turn out, of course, to produce for that, but that's
Speaker 1: not what we're doing here in the moment when we're
Speaker 1: playing the game. The sixteen dollars prices there are incorrect.
Speaker 1: And let me make this analogy now with adp. If
Speaker 1: you believe that after the season is over base and
Speaker 1: will be seen as a second round pick next year,
Speaker 1: but he's a fifth rounder right now, does that mean
Speaker 1: you should draft him in the second round? Well, of
Speaker 1: course not. You should draft him in the fifth round
Speaker 1: or maybe the fourth to make sure that you get him.
Speaker 1: But drafting him in the second makes no sense, right
Speaker 1: because that's not his value. And we would never walk
Speaker 1: into a Snake draft and say, hey, look I got
Speaker 1: Tooton in the second round and brag about it right.
Speaker 1: But if you say, hey, I got Makaya Lemon for sixteen,
Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. And again, I'm not jumping I
Speaker 1: don't even know who got lemon. I'm not jumping down,
Speaker 1: up and down on this person for Lemon for sixteen.
Speaker 1: I just tried to illustrate a point here, okay, because
Speaker 1: at the time you paid that, the player wasn't worth that.
Speaker 1: So just because the player turns out to be worth
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean it was the correct game theory play
Speaker 1: in the moment. If we're in an auction room when
Speaker 1: we're trying to beat the game, I don't believe paying
Speaker 1: the price at that point is correct as far as
Speaker 1: the price itself. Now, this may sound confusing, but I'm
Speaker 1: not telling you not to make the play, okay, because
Speaker 1: you need the player, right, So don't worry about beating
Speaker 1: the game if you need the player. And that's part
Speaker 1: of what happened here. So I'm cool with that. I'm
Speaker 1: cool with the plays they made, but I want to
Speaker 1: point out that saying to yourself, hey, I think he's
Speaker 1: going to produce like that, that's not the point here.
Speaker 1: What we're trying to do is get the player at
Speaker 1: the right price so that we can go on and
Speaker 1: buy other players that are worth the price at that moment,
Speaker 1: and therefore our team takes off. If we end up
Speaker 1: with Lemon at eight and he's a sixteen dollars player,
Speaker 1: that's how we profit, that's how our roster gets better.
Speaker 1: But paying sixteen for Lemon and then having to use
Speaker 1: him as a wide receiver three because you couldn't afford
Speaker 1: one means that he has to produce, and if he
Speaker 1: doesn't hit, then that's when you're in trouble. So I'm
Speaker 1: not saying again that these are bad plays, but just
Speaker 1: don't forget that general concept. Now. In the end of
Speaker 1: the fourth early fifth round, we saw some interesting prices here.
Speaker 1: Rico Dada went for ten bucks, Josh Jacobs went for
Speaker 1: twenty five, and Javonte Williams went for twenty one. I
Speaker 1: think all three of those prices are too cheap. I
Speaker 1: hated passing on all of them, but let me just
Speaker 1: remind you that's really important. That's something we've talked about.
Speaker 1: You have to pass on some of them. At that point,
Speaker 1: I already had Jalen Warren, Jalen Waddle, Almana Rossa Brown,
Speaker 1: and Saquon Barkle. That's one hundred and thirty four bucks.
Speaker 1: There's nothing I could do. I can't pay twenty six
Speaker 1: dollars for Josh Jacobs when I only have sixty six
Speaker 1: dollars left, and now on they have four players. I
Speaker 1: still need twelve players and I got sixty six bucks.
Speaker 1: So I knew what I was doing as far as
Speaker 1: my flex is, and I was okay. But I couldn't
Speaker 1: pay twenty six for Jacobs. I was irritated by that.
Speaker 1: I couldn't pay twenty two by for Javonte. I was
Speaker 1: irritated by that. I couldn't pay eleven for Rico. That
Speaker 1: bugged me, but hey, that's how it goes. Right around
Speaker 1: this time is when I saw an interesting price on
Speaker 1: Tyler Warren at twenty two bucks in the middle of
Speaker 1: the fifth Colston Lovelin had gone for nineteen bucks in
Speaker 1: the second round, so I thought that was interesting. I
Speaker 1: don't have a huge strong takeaway, but I thought that
Speaker 1: you might like to hear that. And then it was
Speaker 1: around the end of the fifth round when I ended
Speaker 1: up with Drake May, and I ended up with him
Speaker 1: for six bucks next to Jalen Warren. I think the
Speaker 1: price for May has to be one of my favorite
Speaker 1: plays of the draft. And I think it's important to
Speaker 1: note that when you nominate quarterbacks, that's going to be
Speaker 1: a large part of the game with one quarterback leagues
Speaker 1: don't forget that that when you nominate them. Matters and
Speaker 1: Drake and Jamison's team, they nominated Party early, and you
Speaker 1: want Perdy to be a two or three dollars guy,
Speaker 1: or even a one dollar guy late, but he ends
Speaker 1: up going for five because it was too early in
Speaker 1: the draft. So think about that when you're talking about
Speaker 1: your quarterbacks. I end up getting may Like I said,
Speaker 1: in the fifth round. Money's running low at this point,
Speaker 1: and people don't want to spend a quarterback because, as
Speaker 1: Scott Pianowski put it on Tuesday, they don't feel pressured.
Speaker 1: They don't feel stressed about the quarterback position, so they
Speaker 1: can let a guy like that go and feel okay
Speaker 1: because they want to spend money elsewhere. The prices were
Speaker 1: Party for five, Lamar Jackson for sixteen in the middle
Speaker 1: of the fourth, Murray for four, Dart for three, Daniels
Speaker 1: for seven, Burrow for seven, Kayleb Williams for four. All Right,
Speaker 1: these are all prices that you're going to see in
Speaker 1: a sharp room. So that's probably not going to happen
Speaker 1: in your home auctions. But you need to be looking
Speaker 1: out for your quarterback value at the top and if
Speaker 1: it's not there, take a look. Just take a look
Speaker 1: at Josh Allen, take a look at Lamar Jackson, take
Speaker 1: a look at Drake Maye and see what you can get.
Speaker 1: And if you can't get him, fine, just blow it off.
Speaker 1: Just blow it off, and don't forget that if you
Speaker 1: nominate him too early, I think that's going to be
Speaker 1: a disadvantage. You really need to wait till the fifth, sixth,
Speaker 1: seventh round. Like we talked about on the five Stages
Speaker 1: of an Auction episode last week, a couple interesting things
Speaker 1: to end this out because we're almost done. Ramandre Stevenson
Speaker 1: went for eighteen bucks at the eight point oh one
Speaker 1: and Kenny Gainwell went for fourteen bucks at the nine
Speaker 1: point oh four. This doesn't always happen in typical home leagues,
Speaker 1: but we got to the ten point oh seven with
Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers at thirteen and we never saw a player
Speaker 1: go for more than ten dollars. The rest of the
Speaker 1: draft six rounds went off without a player going for
Speaker 1: more than thirteen bucks. So that's really interesting to note.
Speaker 1: That's what's gonna happen in deeper leagues. Okay, so if
Speaker 1: you're in a fourteen team or you're in those deep
Speaker 1: roster leagues, that's what's gonna happen. Rounds nine to ten
Speaker 1: are gonna be a lot of low priced guys, and
Speaker 1: then after that it's never gonna get above ten bucks.
Speaker 1: The reason I point out Ramondre Stevenson and Gainwell at
Speaker 1: eighteen and fourteen is they were clearly the last two
Speaker 1: running backs on the board that stuck out like a
Speaker 1: sore thumb. I remember I talked about that, the sticking
Speaker 1: out like a sore thumb. A lot of guys are
Speaker 1: going for six seven bucks right in this range, and
Speaker 1: then where Mandre goes for eighteen and gain Well for fourteen.
Speaker 1: I don't believe that Gainwell's a fourteen dollars player, nor
Speaker 1: is Remandre an eighteen dollars player, although that might be
Speaker 1: reasonable value. I believe that they went there because of
Speaker 1: inflation and when they were nominated. So how did I
Speaker 1: finish out my roster? Okay, so at this point we're
Speaker 1: sitting there with May Barkley, weren't Saint Brown and waddle.
Speaker 1: And at this point I started to get a little
Speaker 1: bit nervous about my tight end, and as you can see,
Speaker 1: I didn't finish it well, and I decided I just
Speaker 1: didn't care. You know, Schultz had like seven hundred yards
Speaker 1: last year. I'm totally fine with him for three bucks.
Speaker 1: He sucks, but I'm totally fine with him there. But
Speaker 1: uh So, at this point I text JJ Winner and
Speaker 1: I said, hey, I really got to pounce on some
Speaker 1: flexes now. And I thought that the prices were going
Speaker 1: to come down, and I had to wait a little
Speaker 1: bit longer than I wanted to, but I do believe
Speaker 1: I finished the way that I wanted to. And here's
Speaker 1: where I talk about all the time about your planning
Speaker 1: ahead of time. I knew that at the end of
Speaker 1: the draft my plan needed to be better than it
Speaker 1: was in the last couple of years, because last year
Speaker 1: I ended up spending on some guys that really just
Speaker 1: were sort of wild spends for not much money. And
Speaker 1: I know that sounds funny, but it's like taking a
Speaker 1: chance on this idiot for four bucks. That's really not
Speaker 1: the way you should spend your money. And I wanted
Speaker 1: to spend a little bit more on those flexes and
Speaker 1: not care so much about my bench because spreading that
Speaker 1: money out led to me getting players that had such
Speaker 1: a lower hit rate that I wanted that I thought
Speaker 1: that back on my roster the last couple of years
Speaker 1: was complete nonsense. Now I'm not saying that some of
Speaker 1: these guys that I got don't mark it to suck,
Speaker 1: because they are and that's why I got them. But
Speaker 1: my plan was I wanted to spend a little bit
Speaker 1: more on the flexes and on rounding out my actual
Speaker 1: starting lineup and not worry about the rest. And I
Speaker 1: did that really well. In fact, I hit my par
Speaker 1: sheet numbers pretty strongly the rest of the way. Like
Speaker 1: I said, I was still behind when I got those
Speaker 1: main five guys on my roster, so I needed to
Speaker 1: cut a little bit. At wide receiver three, Michael Pittman
Speaker 1: fell in my lap at the eight point oh eight
Speaker 1: for twelve bucks. Quinton Johnston went for fifteen bucks right after.
Speaker 1: And I tell you what, I didn't like a lot
Speaker 1: of the mid prices here. As we got into the
Speaker 1: wide receiver three and four territory, people got a little
Speaker 1: bit nervous about the depth there. Jordan Addison goes for fourteen,
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison goes for twenty, DK Metcalf goes for fifteen.
Speaker 1: If you listen to my show, you know what I
Speaker 1: think about that. Matthew Golden eleven, Casey Concepcione eleven, Josh
Speaker 1: Downs sixteen. I'm just gonna tell you, Pittman for twelve.
Speaker 1: I like better than every one of those guys. Now,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm gonna be right. I just do
Speaker 1: I like him better. I think he's a really talented
Speaker 1: receiver that doesn't get enough respect. Have we got guys
Speaker 1: like Casey Concepsion going for one dollar less than Pittman.
Speaker 1: I just think that's a little bit bizarre, and you
Speaker 1: can't give me any argument about the offense or the
Speaker 1: quarterback there. In fact, I think Pittman's got a better
Speaker 1: offense and a better quarterback. So I'm not really sure
Speaker 1: what's going on there. And then I needed some running
Speaker 1: back depth, so I ended up with JK. Dobbins for
Speaker 1: seven bucks and boil boy. If you feel comfortable with JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins as your RB three, then you are telling yourself
Speaker 1: a lie. And I said I gotta get an RB
Speaker 1: four who touches the ball because at some point I'm
Speaker 1: going to miss Dobbins. I didn't end up getting Joanah Coleman,
Speaker 1: which I wanted to do, because I didn't have the money.
Speaker 1: But I ended up getting Kyle Mnung Guy for nine
Speaker 1: at the eleven point oh four, and he was the
Speaker 1: last player to approach ten bucks before the end of
Speaker 1: the draft. I like the price, don't get me wrong.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a bad price for a guy
Speaker 1: that's going to touch the ball as much as he
Speaker 1: does and who does have a goal line roll. But
Speaker 1: I'm not a Kyle Manung Guy guy at all. But
Speaker 1: that's where being player or agnostic comes in. I said,
Speaker 1: I've gotta slam some flexes. So then I end up
Speaker 1: getting Wandale Robinson for eleven bucks as well, and then
Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs for five. So that's really the end of
Speaker 1: the conversation because I don't want to talk about the
Speaker 1: back of the roster guys. They're just complete nonsense, dark
Speaker 1: throws that I don't care about. They're going to be
Speaker 1: cut quickly. If Wix looks like he's not getting enough targets,
Speaker 1: he's done. You know, it's easy. But I do like that.
Speaker 1: Dobbins at for seven bucks and ben on Guy for nine,
Speaker 1: they're going to combine for four to four hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty touches, and if I can put them in my
Speaker 1: flex spots, that is exactly what we're trying to do
Speaker 1: in this league. Now. I don't know about Romeo Dobbs.
Speaker 1: I haven't heard great things as the Patriots of open camp,
Speaker 1: but you know, he's learning a new offense and I
Speaker 1: think he's a solid NFL receiver. We'll see, But Wandale
Speaker 1: Robinson for eleven makes me feel a little bit more
Speaker 1: safe as well. So my finish ends up being a
Speaker 1: somewhat low cost amalgamation of guys who were going to
Speaker 1: touch the ball, but I like their cost because all
Speaker 1: of them were for twelve dollars or less, but all
Speaker 1: have the potential to be fantasy producers. So in the end,
Speaker 1: I end up nailing most of my flex prices because
Speaker 1: I wanted to spend eleven, nine and eight, and I
Speaker 1: ended up spending eleven, nine and seven. And then I
Speaker 1: wanted to spend ten bucks in my first two bench spots,
Speaker 1: and I spent ten bucks on my first two bench spots.
Speaker 1: It's hard to hit those marks. I don't always do it,
Speaker 1: but I love how I finished the draft. I'm not
Speaker 1: here to tell you that this is a championship roster.
Speaker 1: I think there are things I could have done differently,
Speaker 1: and I certainly could have sat there, not paid for
Speaker 1: Aman Ross Saint Brown and instead paid twenty seven dollars
Speaker 1: for Rice Gotten. Jacob says my RB two and gotten
Speaker 1: a much better wide receiver three and four. But I
Speaker 1: love the star power of having Barkley and Saint Brown
Speaker 1: and Waddle and then sneaking Drake mayin there for six bucks.
Speaker 1: So it's not like I don't have star power. I've
Speaker 1: got arguably four star fantasy players. Drake May was a
Speaker 1: top three guy last year. Saquon Barklay's been RB one
Speaker 1: at the position in his career, Saint Brown, top five lock,
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle, he knows how to produce as a top
Speaker 1: five player. I've got four guys that can be top
Speaker 1: five of their position. I'm not saying they're going to be.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying they can be. So it's not like
Speaker 1: I don't have top end potential. But then I've got
Speaker 1: some nice four. Jayleen Moore in forty to fifty catches.
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman, I believe he can reach seventy catches. I
Speaker 1: believe Wandell Robinson can reach seventy or eighty catches working
Speaker 1: with dayboll So, I like how I finished it out.
Speaker 1: But I'm going to be totally honest with you. As
Speaker 1: I said to Scott Pianowski, nothing in this draft ever
Speaker 1: made me feel super comfortable. But I think that's okay,
Speaker 1: because I think that's the whole point here, right, that
Speaker 1: we're not always going to be comfortable, but we have
Speaker 1: to continue to soldier through with what we're seeing in
Speaker 1: front of us. And I can't always make the right moves,
Speaker 1: but I can certainly go back and look and see
Speaker 1: why it wasn't the right move. I felt like I
Speaker 1: played it pretty well. It's a tough room, and it
Speaker 1: was a tough draft, but hey, coming out of the draft,
Speaker 1: I feel pretty darn good, and I feel like I'm
Speaker 1: going to be starting a nice roster week one. We'll
Speaker 1: see how things go there. As far as luck and
Speaker 1: as far as some of my calls on the back end, well,
Speaker 1: don't forget the themes here before I let you go.
Speaker 1: There's a tight conservative room. How do we attack it.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of time for people to think that
Speaker 1: leads to stability and pricing, So make sure that you're
Speaker 1: paying attention to your tiers. It becomes ever more important
Speaker 1: to watch your tiers before they dry up. Don't forget
Speaker 1: that running backs are cheaper in that mid RB two
Speaker 1: RB three range. They're cheaper than the wide receiver twos
Speaker 1: and threes, and so you're buying fantasy points cheaper when
Speaker 1: you're going for those mid level running backs. And then
Speaker 1: also don't forget about stubborn quarterback rooms that if you
Speaker 1: want to try to land one of those top guys
Speaker 1: for a cheaper price, you need to make sure and
Speaker 1: get them out there fourth, fifth, sixth round, maybe seventh round.
Speaker 1: Make sure you get them out there, not too early,
Speaker 1: but not too late. Take a look at him, and
Speaker 1: if it doesn't work, it doesn't work, then you wait
Speaker 1: and wait and wait and wait and pay three bucks
Speaker 1: for two guys. Okay, I hope that you enjoyed my
Speaker 1: walkthrough of The King's Classic. I feel like I didn't
Speaker 1: hit anything, while I feel like at the same time,
Speaker 1: I just took a shotgun and blasted information in your
Speaker 1: ear for an hour. I know It's probably a lot
Speaker 1: to take in, but I think it's worth going back
Speaker 1: and listening to it again if it felt like a lot.
Speaker 1: I believe that this kind of information is absolute gold,
Speaker 1: taking you into the mind of somebody in a tough
Speaker 1: auction room and how they pivoted, how they approached it,
Speaker 1: whether the approach worked, and what exactly happened in the room.
Speaker 1: So I hope you enjoyed it, and that's going to
Speaker 1: do it for the auction talk today. Let's get you
Speaker 1: out of here, all right. The episode's gone on long enough,
Speaker 1: so let me do a quick rundown of things that
Speaker 1: you need to I'll be remembering this salary cap sum
Speaker 1: is coming up Sunday, Monday and Tuesday at seven Eastern time,
Speaker 1: two live auctions followed by an auction panel with some
Speaker 1: of the best auction minds in the business on Tuesday evening.
Speaker 1: Also use my code Auction brief over at FJAY Fantasy
Speaker 1: Sports to get your draft boards and get ten percent
Speaker 1: off your boards. They're the best in the business. Find
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF and don't forget
Speaker 1: the Patreon network four bucks a month for the best
Speaker 1: auction content in the business. And you can go over
Speaker 1: there and find more about my opening nomination of sa
Speaker 1: Kuon Barklay and my criticism of what I did and
Speaker 1: how maybe I could have played it differently. So go
Speaker 1: over there and check that out as well. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much everybody for being here. The next time I
Speaker 1: talk to you, it's going to be August. Keep your
Speaker 1: fingers crossed for health and happiness and all NFL locker
Speaker 1: rooms as we head into training camp. Love you all
Speaker 1: for being here. Thank you so much for anybody who
Speaker 1: came up to me at the expo and talk to
Speaker 1: me and told me they like my work and said
Speaker 1: that they love my show or my legal stuff or
Speaker 1: whatever the case may be. Thank you to anybody who
Speaker 1: came up to me at the expo. I hope that
Speaker 1: we had a fun conversation and there was a lot
Speaker 1: of you, so I really enjoyed that, and I really
Speaker 1: enjoyed my time off this weekend. It's time for a
Speaker 1: four week sprint to the finish. Don't go anywhere. Thank
Speaker 1: you for joining me for another episode of The Auction Brief,
Speaker 1: And we're officially adjourned, and I am out. The Auction
Speaker 1: Brief is adjourned. That'll do it for this week's episode,
Speaker 1: See you next time. On the auction Brief,