WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:12.800 I'm sorry, Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes 2 00:00:12.880 --> 00:00:15.960 on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Molroy, Jason Lyons, and 3 00:00:15.960 --> 00:00:19.760 I'm Dmitic on Tacos. A lot happening as usual. The 4 00:00:19.800 --> 00:00:22.800 big stuff that popped off was Israel baumb Syria. 5 00:00:22.920 --> 00:00:23.440 Last week. 6 00:00:24.199 --> 00:00:27.120 The hit the Ministry of Defense, hit the Presidential Palace 7 00:00:27.399 --> 00:00:29.280 or in and around the Presidential Palace. 8 00:00:29.719 --> 00:00:29.879 Uh. 9 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:33.000 Since then, Syria and Israel have come to a ceasefire 10 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:36.920 that's been supported by Turkey, Jordan and the US. Obviously. Uh, 11 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:40.159 you know, a lot happening there. That was like a 12 00:00:40.240 --> 00:00:43.439 quick one second thing. But you know, obviously to go 13 00:00:43.479 --> 00:00:46.520 from bombing a country to ceasefire within three or four 14 00:00:46.640 --> 00:00:51.240 days is pretty pretty dramatic. So Mick, what are you 15 00:00:52.039 --> 00:00:53.200 what are you tracking with that? 16 00:00:55.320 --> 00:00:56.679 Well, first of all, it's a good thing. There's a 17 00:00:57.359 --> 00:01:01.679 The last thing the Syrian people need is another civil war. 18 00:01:02.359 --> 00:01:06.879 They've been through over a decade. They've lost over three 19 00:01:06.959 --> 00:01:11.120 hundred thousand people, displaced millions of people. It's a good 20 00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:15.560 thing that Turkey, Jordan, the US did broker to cease fars. 21 00:01:18.480 --> 00:01:23.760 Just to catch people up, there's a group, a minority 22 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:29.439 religious group called the Drews. They are in Syria, predominantly 23 00:01:29.480 --> 00:01:32.280 in Soweyda Province, which is in the southern part of Syria. 24 00:01:32.319 --> 00:01:36.439 There's about seven hundred thousand of them. They're also in Lebanon. 25 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:39.079 I think there's like three hundred thousand and Lebanon, and 26 00:01:39.120 --> 00:01:42.599 there's around one hundred and fifty thousand Drews in Israel. 27 00:01:43.159 --> 00:01:50.680 And they are, they are, many of them are in 28 00:01:50.760 --> 00:01:57.000 the Idea in senior positions. They are. And I'm a 29 00:01:57.159 --> 00:01:59.519 expert on Drews, and obviously I did know about him 30 00:01:59.599 --> 00:02:03.719 quite frank before this incident. But basically, they split from 31 00:02:03.920 --> 00:02:09.120 Shia Islam a long time ago, like ten, ten seventeen 32 00:02:09.240 --> 00:02:12.560 or something like that. They're very distinct. They have their 33 00:02:12.560 --> 00:02:17.639 own religion and it's not open to conversion, and it 34 00:02:17.639 --> 00:02:19.840 hasn't been for a long long time. It's very secretive, 35 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:24.319 but it has like a mixture of a form of Islam, 36 00:02:24.439 --> 00:02:28.560 and it really does have a component of Greek philosophy, 37 00:02:28.599 --> 00:02:31.719 which obviously you know, as somebody who falls stoicism is 38 00:02:31.800 --> 00:02:34.280 kind of interesting to me. But they're very distinct. And 39 00:02:34.319 --> 00:02:38.080 I bring this up because there are groups that consider 40 00:02:38.120 --> 00:02:41.800 them heretics. You know, Muslim groups, particularly the group that 41 00:02:41.879 --> 00:02:46.639 supports or did support now is ostensibly part of the 42 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:54.719 Syrih military, Islamic jihadists right HTS, former Al Qaeda in Syria, 43 00:02:54.879 --> 00:02:57.840 Al News for Front and the like, So there is 44 00:02:57.919 --> 00:03:04.000 a natural conflict there. Unfortunately, the DRUS do not support 45 00:03:04.439 --> 00:03:09.159 the government in Damascus of the transitional government led by 46 00:03:09.199 --> 00:03:14.879 the interim president akmedel Shara, So that's one component, and 47 00:03:14.919 --> 00:03:18.000 they were fighting with although they are Arabs, they were 48 00:03:18.039 --> 00:03:21.759 fighting with Bedouin Arabs in the southern part partly because 49 00:03:21.800 --> 00:03:25.840 of territory. Partly I think some would say because they 50 00:03:26.439 --> 00:03:33.400 compete for economic trade, even illicit drugs trade. I'm not 51 00:03:33.439 --> 00:03:35.159 saying they do or they don't, but that's one of 52 00:03:35.159 --> 00:03:37.479 the accusations. It gets at least a part of them. 53 00:03:38.159 --> 00:03:42.520 But they don't want the government forces of Achman el Shara, 54 00:03:42.599 --> 00:03:48.759 who they consider hostile to them. In Shaweda, Okay, after 55 00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:51.159 this started and people started dying, we saw a lot 56 00:03:51.159 --> 00:03:56.319 of the stuff posted. The government sent forces in there, 57 00:03:57.039 --> 00:04:02.639 they said to quell the violence. There's apparently a misconception 58 00:04:02.840 --> 00:04:04.719 by the part of the al Sharak government that that 59 00:04:04.759 --> 00:04:08.039 wouldn't be a red line for Israel. Obviously that was 60 00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:10.879 a misconception. I think it's kind of hard for me 61 00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:14.719 to believe they didn't know that, since Israel has made 62 00:04:14.759 --> 00:04:18.839 it very clear that they don't. They also don't trust 63 00:04:19.040 --> 00:04:22.279 al Shara's government, who they still refer to as Jalani 64 00:04:23.160 --> 00:04:26.720 his name to gur as a member of the news 65 00:04:26.720 --> 00:04:31.439 for Afront and formerly a member of al Qaeda in Iraq, 66 00:04:33.279 --> 00:04:35.120 and they don't want them on their border. That's why 67 00:04:35.160 --> 00:04:39.120 they struck all they could of the Syrian military capacity 68 00:04:39.639 --> 00:04:43.639 right when Asad fled and Shara took over. That said, 69 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:47.360 I would point out that Israel, if you were just 70 00:04:47.439 --> 00:04:51.040 protecting the DRUS, there wouldn't really be a reason to 71 00:04:51.120 --> 00:04:55.480 strike and destroy, you know, the Ministure of Defense in Damascus, 72 00:04:55.680 --> 00:05:02.480 or strike around the presidential palace. So from Israel perspective, yes, 73 00:05:02.560 --> 00:05:05.000 they have a historical connection to the DRUS. They have 74 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:07.959 a lot of DRUS with influence in Israel, but there's 75 00:05:08.000 --> 00:05:11.560 also a much broader strategic issue here with Israel not 76 00:05:11.680 --> 00:05:17.680 wanting any government forces near their border. So that's at 77 00:05:17.759 --> 00:05:24.560 least my summary of what's happening. This is very precarious. 78 00:05:25.199 --> 00:05:28.319 If this were to kick off again, if Israel and 79 00:05:29.519 --> 00:05:31.920 the government and Damascus were to go head to head one, 80 00:05:31.959 --> 00:05:35.040 it wouldn't be much of a fight, but this could 81 00:05:35.160 --> 00:05:36.600 kick off other conflicts. 82 00:05:36.639 --> 00:05:36.879 You know. 83 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:40.240 We obviously have the Kurds who have an agreement with 84 00:05:40.279 --> 00:05:42.920 the government, but that's not going that well. We could 85 00:05:42.959 --> 00:05:48.120 see essentially a breakdown. The international community is doing what 86 00:05:48.160 --> 00:05:53.160 they can. I think we have cut sanctions Europe. Also 87 00:05:53.759 --> 00:05:57.839 there's we're looking at investments in the infrastructure, development, humanitarian 88 00:05:57.839 --> 00:06:02.199 assistants that would support this government. That we need to 89 00:06:02.240 --> 00:06:07.439 stay until it has an opportunity for a full vote. 90 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:10.240 It's supposed to be five years, so the Syrian people 91 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:14.600 can choose who they want to represent them. Because even 92 00:06:14.639 --> 00:06:18.759 with the reformation talks of Sharra, he is not an 93 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:23.879 elected leader. There will be parliamentmentary elections in August, so 94 00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:26.240 we're starting to take a step towards that. But I 95 00:06:26.240 --> 00:06:29.839 think it's important that people know that this is still 96 00:06:29.879 --> 00:06:32.360 a very tenuous situation and it's not only in the 97 00:06:32.399 --> 00:06:35.720 interest obviously the Syrian people, but the region not to 98 00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:40.399 have yet another complete breakdown of Syria, which destabilizes the 99 00:06:40.480 --> 00:06:44.480 region and could send another wave of you know, refugees 100 00:06:44.519 --> 00:06:47.560 into Europe, which is obviously not something the Europeans want 101 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:49.959 to see kind of a long win. 102 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:52.160 It's ow rate, but no, it's pretty good. 103 00:06:52.399 --> 00:06:54.480 It was a good one. Yeah, I'll be honest with you. 104 00:06:54.519 --> 00:06:58.600 I completely forgot that the Druis, other than in the IDF, 105 00:06:58.639 --> 00:07:05.519 were a major part of Israeli culture, except for when 106 00:07:05.560 --> 00:07:08.560 I did started hearing about this incident. It reminded me 107 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:12.319 back when I was a kid teenager and correct me 108 00:07:12.319 --> 00:07:14.920 if I'm wrong. Wasn't there a big incident in Lebanon 109 00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:19.439 involving the drus, a massacre at a refugee camp or 110 00:07:19.439 --> 00:07:20.079 something like that. 111 00:07:20.199 --> 00:07:21.240 Yeah, that was the first. 112 00:07:21.079 --> 00:07:25.079 Time I remember hearing about them, right, So they are 113 00:07:25.160 --> 00:07:28.240 definitely a persecuted minority group. 114 00:07:30.519 --> 00:07:31.920 You know, I don't want to act like I'm some 115 00:07:32.079 --> 00:07:36.759 other religious scholar here, but they have different interpretations of 116 00:07:36.800 --> 00:07:40.040 the prophet Mohammed's status. I don't believe they think he 117 00:07:40.160 --> 00:07:41.879 is a prophet, but it's very difficult to learn about 118 00:07:41.879 --> 00:07:45.160 their religion because they they're pretty closed. But I bring 119 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:48.319 that up again because there is a conflict between those 120 00:07:48.879 --> 00:07:52.399 who would view them as non believers and then you know, 121 00:07:52.439 --> 00:07:57.399 obviously the extremest elements of that would try to take 122 00:07:57.560 --> 00:08:00.360 violence against them for it. So they've been protecting themselves 123 00:08:00.360 --> 00:08:03.560 for a long time. They've existed. They fled from Egypt 124 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:07.279 into the mountains of Syria Prime predominantly and they still 125 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:11.759 they're still there, and I think Israel views them somewhat 126 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:16.680 is a you know, a natural ally and also because 127 00:08:17.000 --> 00:08:19.480 they do have influence in Israel. I mean, I know 128 00:08:19.600 --> 00:08:24.720 several very senior IDF officers who are who are Drews, right, 129 00:08:24.759 --> 00:08:27.920 so they have and in Israel doesn't want to see 130 00:08:28.639 --> 00:08:32.120 you know, one hundred and fifty thousand drus flee into 131 00:08:32.480 --> 00:08:36.559 not flee, but go into southern Syria to defend themselves, 132 00:08:36.559 --> 00:08:41.879 which they will, and they started doing. It's started out, yes, yeah, 133 00:08:41.879 --> 00:08:44.399 it's right there, right, so it's not that far. And 134 00:08:44.440 --> 00:08:47.559 then then you've got Israeli. Israeli's in there, and it's 135 00:08:48.399 --> 00:08:51.600 the best thing is you know, I think not that 136 00:08:51.639 --> 00:08:53.759 they're asking me as a government to mask is focus 137 00:08:53.799 --> 00:08:58.679 on international development, getting food to the people, and moving 138 00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:03.240 toward a government that represents the people. And what I 139 00:09:03.240 --> 00:09:06.679 mean by represents they actually chose right, And if they're 140 00:09:06.720 --> 00:09:08.480 if they're good, and they do all these things right, 141 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:10.919 then maybe they'll be the ones they choose. If they don't, 142 00:09:11.159 --> 00:09:14.000 if they if they focus all their efforts on uh, 143 00:09:14.200 --> 00:09:18.639 you know, military activities against the minority groups. Well, obviously 144 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:20.919 those minority groups aren't going to vote for you. So 145 00:09:22.480 --> 00:09:25.559 that's something I think the US can assist with. We 146 00:09:25.600 --> 00:09:29.879 obviously want to see a stable Syria and it might 147 00:09:29.919 --> 00:09:31.440 just need some diplomatic coaching. 148 00:09:31.519 --> 00:09:35.000 Right now, I have a question about like the history 149 00:09:35.000 --> 00:09:39.720 of the Jews and in Israel, and correct me if 150 00:09:39.759 --> 00:09:43.519 I'm wrong. In nineteen sixty seven when that went down 151 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:48.320 and Sirius took the Golan Heights, isn't that when like 152 00:09:48.360 --> 00:09:51.840 the majority of the Jews population was joined joined in Israel, 153 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:53.840 when they like annexed the Golan Heights. 154 00:09:54.039 --> 00:09:56.480 Yeah, I think they. I think they're predominantly for the 155 00:09:56.480 --> 00:09:58.360 Goat from the go On Heights. I don't want to 156 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:02.159 like go pass my level of expertise on the Druis. 157 00:10:02.360 --> 00:10:04.240 I read a lot about him, my guess because I 158 00:10:04.240 --> 00:10:06.080 talked about it on ABC quite a bit this week, 159 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:09.000 but I knew no several but I don't want to. 160 00:10:09.159 --> 00:10:11.799 I do believe they're predominantly in the Golan Heights. 161 00:10:11.879 --> 00:10:17.159 Yes, yeah, absolutely, And there was some uh there's talk 162 00:10:17.240 --> 00:10:20.720 of not talk, it's happening. Israel's moving to two divisions 163 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:24.000 up towards there. Uh, and they're looking like they are 164 00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:26.960 going to go into uh what's the area called Swaeheda. 165 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:34.080 I don't want to Swa. It's yeah province, the southern province. 166 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:38.600 Yeah, yeah, I mean, bro, I'm the cynical guy, right, 167 00:10:38.799 --> 00:10:39.679 I'm gonna be honest. 168 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:41.039 It's a languad. I'm gonna say what. 169 00:10:41.080 --> 00:10:44.000 I think it's the lang graand by Israel and they 170 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:46.480 could they could, you know, because I had Jack Murphy 171 00:10:46.519 --> 00:10:48.399 on it. But the other day and he made a 172 00:10:48.399 --> 00:10:52.200 good point. It's like, how can you pick and choose 173 00:10:52.240 --> 00:10:55.240 what minority groups you give a ship about. 174 00:10:55.759 --> 00:10:59.639 M hmm, well we do, yeah, throwing it out there. 175 00:10:59.840 --> 00:11:02.799 I don't agree with that. I don't agree with that either. Yeah, 176 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:03.879 that's fucked too. 177 00:11:04.320 --> 00:11:04.639 I think. 178 00:11:05.399 --> 00:11:07.279 I mean, it's a fair point. It's a fair point. 179 00:11:07.320 --> 00:11:10.120 You could in Israel has basically made it a no 180 00:11:10.279 --> 00:11:17.639 go for the for the uh, the government, the transitional government. Right, 181 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:19.320 So in a way you could say that it's a 182 00:11:19.399 --> 00:11:21.440 land grab in the sense that they won't they just 183 00:11:21.480 --> 00:11:25.039 won't accept them down on their border. But the but 184 00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:27.600 the Yeah, it's more than just protecting a minority. It's 185 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:31.080 also the strategic interests of Israel. Yeah, I don't think 186 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:34.240 anybody think that's not true. Another factor that's complicated this 187 00:11:34.360 --> 00:11:37.919 is there's no one voice for the Druz in Sweita, right, 188 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:40.200 so you get like three leaders to say okay, yes 189 00:11:40.240 --> 00:11:42.919 he's fire. And then you got this guy hick Mott 190 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:47.480 that is head of the Syrian mil not the Syrian 191 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:50.799 the Sueda military Council. Another factor, if you if to 192 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:53.519 put in a little bit of the perspective of the 193 00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:57.279 government Damascus, is they think a lot of the Assad 194 00:11:57.600 --> 00:12:01.919 regime fled and is in Sueda, right they couldn't get 195 00:12:01.919 --> 00:12:05.639 out of the country, and they believe that this Sweda 196 00:12:05.679 --> 00:12:09.759 Military Council has many of the members or former regime 197 00:12:09.840 --> 00:12:15.519 members who they obviously strongly oppose. And then the government 198 00:12:15.519 --> 00:12:18.600 of Damascus would also point out that they believe that 199 00:12:18.639 --> 00:12:21.279 a lot of the illicit drug trade happens down there. 200 00:12:21.919 --> 00:12:24.480 But they of course want to on the flip side 201 00:12:24.519 --> 00:12:26.639 of that, they want to control all of Syria. But 202 00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:29.799 let's go back to the legitimacy history, right, so there 203 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:32.399 needs to be a stable government in Damascus. They're it. 204 00:12:32.799 --> 00:12:36.039 I think that's why the US government is supporting them. 205 00:12:36.159 --> 00:12:38.519 I'm not opposed to that. But let's also point out 206 00:12:38.559 --> 00:12:41.960 that they didn't get elected to be in Damascus. They 207 00:12:42.080 --> 00:12:47.799 just took over by force, right, So the Jeffersonian democracy 208 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:50.919 speak about them is a little overstated. I would say, 209 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:53.559 to be fair on all sides, we have to see 210 00:12:53.559 --> 00:12:55.519 what they do. They're saying a lot of the right thing, 211 00:12:55.559 --> 00:12:57.679 but there's also a lot of jih hoists that are 212 00:12:57.720 --> 00:13:00.679 in that government, and that is I think the legitimate 213 00:13:00.919 --> 00:13:06.159 concern of Israel. Does it necessitate taking strikes inside Damascus? 214 00:13:06.240 --> 00:13:09.360 Probably not, But I mean, let's be fair at all 215 00:13:09.720 --> 00:13:13.360 sides and let the you know, let the listeners make 216 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:13.960 their opinion. 217 00:13:14.759 --> 00:13:18.600 Andy Milburn, Hey, how are you, sir? That's a professor 218 00:13:19.799 --> 00:13:20.440 to see you guys? 219 00:13:20.720 --> 00:13:23.159 Now, I can't see it because I got the wrong layout. 220 00:13:23.759 --> 00:13:26.440 Oh shit, I don't even know you were there. 221 00:13:27.120 --> 00:13:30.399 Yeah, Andy just joined us of course, Andy Milburn, Uh, 222 00:13:30.519 --> 00:13:32.080 what do you told? What are you tracking with the 223 00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:35.200 whole Syria Israel? You know now with the ceasefire. 224 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:40.120 Well I came in on the on the tail end 225 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:43.919 of mix mixed talk there, but I so a knowing Mick. 226 00:13:44.159 --> 00:13:46.200 I will say right up front that everything he said 227 00:13:46.279 --> 00:13:48.600 was right, and I agree with him. One hundred percent, 228 00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:53.399 and I don't want to add anything but be redundant. No, 229 00:13:53.519 --> 00:13:55.720 I but I will say a couple of things perhaps 230 00:13:55.720 --> 00:13:57.960 that are you know, not just for the sake of 231 00:13:57.960 --> 00:14:08.320 being controversial. Mike, I agreed that Algilani's the Algilani sponsored 232 00:14:08.360 --> 00:14:13.320 government or broken government or initiated government there in Damascus 233 00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:17.600 is not a democratic government. But you know, I sometimes 234 00:14:17.639 --> 00:14:21.200 wonder if we aren't too wedded to the concept of democracy. 235 00:14:21.279 --> 00:14:24.519 It hasn't worked well for us and hasn't worked well 236 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:28.480 generally in the Middle East, you know, a leap to 237 00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:33.360 so called democracy. Think about Okay, I know a month 238 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:36.840 and ice here, but I think I think, you know, 239 00:14:36.879 --> 00:14:38.919 I think we have to put I think we have 240 00:14:39.039 --> 00:14:44.159 to expect that there is going to be a sorry, 241 00:14:44.440 --> 00:14:46.200 I think we have to expect that there's going to 242 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:50.759 be an interim period government that doesn't look democratic. And 243 00:14:51.480 --> 00:14:53.240 I think that may not be a bad thing. I mean, 244 00:14:53.279 --> 00:14:56.679 think about our own experiences in Iraq, you know, with 245 00:14:56.679 --> 00:15:00.240 a democratic government actually brought around Isis because it was 246 00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:04.519 democratic in the sense that it represented a sheer majority, 247 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:08.960 but they they were heavily punitive on the Sunni minority 248 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:12.519 and ultimately resulted in bad things. So, you know, in 249 00:15:12.960 --> 00:15:18.240 order to have a functioning I'm pausing here for a 250 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:22.440 moment because I'm wondering about our own model. In order 251 00:15:22.519 --> 00:15:25.399 to have a functioning, effective democratic government, you need a 252 00:15:25.759 --> 00:15:30.559 broadly educated middle class, and that right now that middle 253 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:34.639 class is no longer existent in Syria. Everyone who could 254 00:15:34.759 --> 00:15:38.639 escape has escaped, and so this may be, this may 255 00:15:38.639 --> 00:15:39.799 be the best that we can hope for. 256 00:15:41.440 --> 00:15:44.039 So I assume you mean like promoting democracies overseas, not 257 00:15:44.759 --> 00:15:49.919 our democracy, right Annie, Yes, you know, yeah, No, I 258 00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:52.039 get what you're saying. Man, it's it's totally I do 259 00:15:52.679 --> 00:15:55.159 concede that the idea that we can just go around 260 00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:58.039 the world make and everybody democracy is it's just not 261 00:15:58.080 --> 00:16:00.480 going to happen. I think we should promote it. I mean, 262 00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:03.240 that's what we are. Uh, But to your point, not 263 00:16:03.279 --> 00:16:05.639 every country is ready for it. All I'm saying is, 264 00:16:06.480 --> 00:16:10.679 if you don't want minorities to fight back, claiming your 265 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:15.399 legitimate government in Damascus because you took it by force 266 00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:20.000 is not a good argument for why another group can't 267 00:16:20.120 --> 00:16:24.120 try to take your position by force, right, So there 268 00:16:24.159 --> 00:16:27.120 is no there's no there's no moral right there. So 269 00:16:27.360 --> 00:16:29.480 all I'm saying is they need to prove that they 270 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:34.519 want to lead the country. Ultimately that should be the 271 00:16:34.600 --> 00:16:36.799 choice of the people or it's going to stay fractured 272 00:16:36.840 --> 00:16:39.399 the entire time. Because if they're going to try to 273 00:16:39.440 --> 00:16:42.879 dominate the minority, the minorities who is all armed. This 274 00:16:43.039 --> 00:16:45.279 is the Middle East, right, and the SDF is of 275 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:49.039 course armed by us, They're they're going to say, Okay, well, 276 00:16:49.080 --> 00:16:51.159 I guess Mike. Mike's right, so I'm gonna I'm gonna 277 00:16:51.600 --> 00:16:53.480 take you on the battlefield. And I don't think that's 278 00:16:53.639 --> 00:16:57.000 in the uh in the interest of anybody in Saria. 279 00:16:57.759 --> 00:17:02.399 They have a lot they should focus on developing the country, 280 00:17:02.679 --> 00:17:06.079 building up any kind of economy, because you're right, I 281 00:17:06.079 --> 00:17:08.960 think eighty percent of the populations below the poverty limit. 282 00:17:09.720 --> 00:17:14.480 And then you know humanitarian assistance and that, and then 283 00:17:14.519 --> 00:17:17.880 hopefully they prove that they should be run the country. 284 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:21.559 And then because there is elections coming up, so a 285 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:25.880 form in August for the parliament. So they're trying to 286 00:17:25.920 --> 00:17:28.599 move that way, which I think is good. But that's 287 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:33.240 what I think. What it does. In addition to promoting democracy, 288 00:17:33.279 --> 00:17:35.680 which has been part of a foreign policy, it also 289 00:17:35.720 --> 00:17:40.680 gives people buy into the government right long term. They 290 00:17:40.680 --> 00:17:44.640 had a vote win or lose, just like us. It's 291 00:17:44.680 --> 00:17:48.720 you know that it's buy into the government. If not 292 00:17:49.359 --> 00:17:52.000 the government says, hey, I'm the government because I took 293 00:17:52.640 --> 00:17:55.519 over from the last jackass that tried to tell you 294 00:17:55.559 --> 00:17:57.880 what to do by the tip of a gun, then 295 00:17:58.119 --> 00:18:01.279 they don't have any buying. It's just going to be fractured. 296 00:18:01.319 --> 00:18:05.279 And you know, yeah, I agree with that one hundred percent. 297 00:18:05.440 --> 00:18:11.440 And you know there is there's so many more things. 298 00:18:11.640 --> 00:18:14.119 I mean, so far, so good, though I have to 299 00:18:14.160 --> 00:18:16.200 say that there's so many things that could have gone 300 00:18:16.240 --> 00:18:21.000 cataclysmically wrong in Syria. I mean, you think about all 301 00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:24.519 the turn going on there. You've got the Alo Whites 302 00:18:24.559 --> 00:18:28.640 who now feel threatened. You've got a population the majority 303 00:18:28.680 --> 00:18:31.680 of whom are extremely angry at the Allo Whites and 304 00:18:32.200 --> 00:18:36.799 associate that sect with aside and the previous regime and 305 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:39.440 all the horrific things that went on. And yes there 306 00:18:39.519 --> 00:18:43.240 have been there has been retribution that you know, there 307 00:18:43.279 --> 00:18:50.599 has been fighting between al Jilani's mob and the Alo Whites, 308 00:18:50.680 --> 00:18:53.440 but it's not as bad. It hasn't turned into a 309 00:18:53.440 --> 00:18:56.920 wholesale masco the way people thought about You think about 310 00:18:56.960 --> 00:18:59.920 the SDF the Kurds and the Turks. The fact that 311 00:19:00.200 --> 00:19:03.680 back to how Jelani, you'd think also another potential would 312 00:19:03.720 --> 00:19:07.799 be out and out civil war between the Turkish backed 313 00:19:07.880 --> 00:19:11.440 Arab groups and the Kurds, and that has been fighting, 314 00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:14.079 but it hasn't broken into a whole scale. 315 00:19:13.839 --> 00:19:15.480 War yet, you know. 316 00:19:15.559 --> 00:19:18.559 So there are goodness, Yeah, I mean there are a 317 00:19:18.559 --> 00:19:21.319 lot of a lot of really bad things that could 318 00:19:21.319 --> 00:19:24.599 have happened that that have not yet happened, and that 319 00:19:24.759 --> 00:19:28.599 do seem, I will say this, regardless of Jolani's background, 320 00:19:28.960 --> 00:19:32.759 that do seem to be some really mature, sensible voices 321 00:19:33.240 --> 00:19:37.200 in the administration, in the regime that has taken over 322 00:19:37.559 --> 00:19:40.039 now at least they're saying the right things. So all 323 00:19:40.079 --> 00:19:41.960 of these are positive indications. 324 00:19:42.839 --> 00:19:46.039 Yeah, And we've had you know, I've had direct contact 325 00:19:46.039 --> 00:19:47.880 with a lot of them, and I think they are, 326 00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:50.799 at least the ones I've talked to mostly about humanitarian stuff. 327 00:19:51.319 --> 00:19:53.640 Do you have the interest of the people throughout Syria 328 00:19:53.640 --> 00:19:55.640 and mind So I'd have to give them that, and 329 00:19:55.640 --> 00:19:58.920 I'd have to give the administration ours a credit, Secretary 330 00:19:58.920 --> 00:20:01.759 of Rubio for moving pretty quick on this and and 331 00:20:01.880 --> 00:20:04.400 getting this getting this stop. Like you said, this could 332 00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:07.119 have been far worse. It could have kept escalating and 333 00:20:07.119 --> 00:20:09.880 it could have turned. It could have turned even worse 334 00:20:09.880 --> 00:20:11.000 than it was, way worse. 335 00:20:10.839 --> 00:20:11.240 Than it was. 336 00:20:11.960 --> 00:20:14.920 I think we're so sorry, Mick. Let me ask you 337 00:20:15.799 --> 00:20:19.160 US aside and Israel aside, what role do you guys 338 00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:22.480 think that Turkey will play in Syria moving forward? Or 339 00:20:22.480 --> 00:20:26.240 do they only care about the north northwest? Is that it? 340 00:20:26.359 --> 00:20:28.279 Or will they get involved wholehearted? 341 00:20:29.839 --> 00:20:33.200 Well, they're involved whole art They're they they they supported 342 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:39.359 uh the interim president, they supported his efforts throughout, and 343 00:20:39.400 --> 00:20:43.000 I think that's that's the other dan not danger? Why 344 00:20:43.039 --> 00:20:43.480 not danger? 345 00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:43.680 Now? 346 00:20:43.799 --> 00:20:45.640 So you get a lot of tension between Turkey and 347 00:20:45.720 --> 00:20:49.720 Israel if I'm not saying that that could happen, but 348 00:20:50.200 --> 00:20:52.480 if it did happen, it would be dire consequence. If 349 00:20:52.519 --> 00:20:55.279 there was actually a conflict between a NATO ally and Turkey, 350 00:20:55.400 --> 00:20:59.160 who's obviously a very modern advanced military, and Israel, who's 351 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:01.920 obviously a very modern and advanced military, that would be 352 00:21:01.920 --> 00:21:04.920 like a nightmare scenario. And I'm not saying it's likely 353 00:21:04.960 --> 00:21:08.279 to happen, but it's like the worst case scenario if 354 00:21:08.440 --> 00:21:12.599 because they support Jilani, I mean Elshirah in Israel does not. 355 00:21:13.279 --> 00:21:19.200 They do not buy into the reformist UH idea of 356 00:21:19.200 --> 00:21:22.119 what Joani and in the US does. So the US does. 357 00:21:22.960 --> 00:21:26.799 We've we've removed the sanctions part the sanctions that that 358 00:21:26.920 --> 00:21:30.200 can be removed by the president, so the executive action 359 00:21:30.640 --> 00:21:34.759 UH sanctions, not the congressionally passed ones. And it looks 360 00:21:34.759 --> 00:21:38.839 like we're really moving to normalized relations. So the United 361 00:21:38.839 --> 00:21:42.160 States is kind of right there in the middle. But 362 00:21:43.200 --> 00:21:45.440 to Andy's point, this could have been far worse. Let's 363 00:21:45.480 --> 00:21:49.200 make sure diplomatically it doesn't get far worse. 364 00:21:51.000 --> 00:21:54.880 Yeah, we had a Charles Lister on Middle East Institute 365 00:21:55.359 --> 00:21:59.279 before he wrote a couple of days ago that Israel's 366 00:21:59.559 --> 00:22:04.319 like essentially positioned was ever since Alsha took over was 367 00:22:04.519 --> 00:22:07.960 light regime change. And that's what they were like, which 368 00:22:07.960 --> 00:22:11.680 I don't know what that means, which is what they 369 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:13.559 were lobbying the US government for. 370 00:22:14.920 --> 00:22:16.200 Sorry, Andy, I cut you off. 371 00:22:18.279 --> 00:22:19.960 Yeah, No, The only thing I was going to say 372 00:22:20.039 --> 00:22:24.799 is that both Turkey and Israel, you know, there are 373 00:22:25.119 --> 00:22:28.200 they are rational actors in the sense that they are 374 00:22:28.240 --> 00:22:31.079 not going to come to blows against one another. You know, 375 00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:36.319 they remember the I mean, they've they've gone through periods 376 00:22:36.359 --> 00:22:42.440 of having bad relations. Remember that the incident when was 377 00:22:42.559 --> 00:22:46.799 that back in two thousand and nine or to rather 378 00:22:46.839 --> 00:22:50.880 twenty and ten where that Turkish broke the Mamaris broke 379 00:22:50.920 --> 00:22:55.119 the blockade in Gaza and f Littel of thirteen intercepted 380 00:22:55.160 --> 00:22:59.279 it and they came to blows there but in the air. 381 00:22:59.400 --> 00:23:05.400 But you know, again Eron talked about then deterior ending situation, 382 00:23:05.720 --> 00:23:08.839 possible conflict, but it's it's just not going to happen 383 00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:12.200 between those two. They continue a dialogue, at least their 384 00:23:12.200 --> 00:23:17.359 militaries continue dialogues, actually their respective air forces. They know 385 00:23:17.480 --> 00:23:21.359 that that would be bad for both countries to you know, 386 00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:24.920 they're by no means friends, but they are both they 387 00:23:24.960 --> 00:23:28.319 understand the rational actors in the same way that Israel 388 00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:35.559 and Egypt are. But yes, there is definitely a divergence 389 00:23:35.640 --> 00:23:39.599 of interest there, and there's some divergence of interest frankly 390 00:23:39.640 --> 00:23:42.839 between the United States and Turkey and Syria. We just 391 00:23:42.920 --> 00:23:45.599 haven't got you know, we've seen that in the past 392 00:23:45.680 --> 00:23:49.480 and when we were back in the SDF, and I 393 00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:52.720 think we're likely to see it again going ahead. I mean, 394 00:23:52.759 --> 00:23:54.920 we're walking a fine line. I think it was a 395 00:23:54.960 --> 00:23:59.680 good decision by the administration to lift the sanctions and 396 00:23:59.720 --> 00:24:02.839 give this government a chance, because anything is better than 397 00:24:02.880 --> 00:24:06.839 what has been happening to Sirius since twenty eleven. But 398 00:24:08.519 --> 00:24:11.920 in the end, we've got to bear in mind that 399 00:24:12.000 --> 00:24:15.319 the Turks have an agenda in that part of the 400 00:24:15.359 --> 00:24:20.279 world that is not always it's not always aligned with 401 00:24:20.359 --> 00:24:21.920