Speaker 1: Welcome in to the opening line report.
Speaker 2: Kelly Stewart Here on this Monday morning, Teddy Covers joining
us as always as we go through the NFL slate,
tell you when you need to bet them, tell you
if you need to wait. Of course we're gonna get
some of those emergency betting alerts. Teddy, you've been rocking
and rolling on end Zone Live. I've really enjoyed watching you.
Guys had some really great live bets yesterday, but ultimately
it was just a chalk eating weasel at least.
Speaker 3: Of a morning. Yeah, and guys, if you haven't seen
the en Zone Live yet, check it out or we're
doing it every Sunday or right here on wager Talk TV.
We go live for the early games, so it's about
three and a half hours and there's always a group
of us, so there's lots of you know, we flick
each other in the year, we make fun of each other.
It's a and yet we provide a lot of good
commentary on what's going on in the sports betting world
as things are going live. So if you ever watched it,
I encourage you check it out. Every Sunday right here
on wager Talk TV, we talk about chalk eating weasels. Well,
favorites of mine seven or higher. Yesterday, what we have?
Houston beat Arizona by twenty you know, Philly beat in
Vegas thirty one nothing. Jacksonville beat the Jets forty eight twenty,
Chicago beat Cleveland thirty one to three. San fran with
the late field goal against Tennessee to win by exactly thirteen
minus twelve and a half. In that game, there were
thirteen's out there, so the only points spread loss for
that chock eating weasels was Seattle minus thirteen. In the
Philip Rivers Bowl eighteen sixteen final dogs outright, I had
the Saints, they beat the Panthers. The Commanders beat the
g Men, the Chargers beat the Chiefs. We'll talk a
lot about that today. Obviously, in the Broncos upset the Packers.
But you know, three of the four dogs that won
outright were dogs of you know, field goal or less.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they were kind of if you will, public dogs.
Speaker 2: Right, there are a couple of dogs I was surprised
to see get that money from the betting public. We'll
get into some of these here in just a minute.
Teddy covers Monday Night Football is well about nine hours away.
Do you have anything up right now on wager talk
dot com that our audiences know about the Miami Dolphins
are taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 3: So I have a free pick video up on my
page over at wagertalk dot com WT dot buzz, backslash TC.
Just go to wagertalk dot com or just go to
the free picks page and you can see my take
on the total for tonight's game between the Dolphins and
the Steelers. Just tweeted out just a few minutes ago
at video recorded over the weekend, So you can check
that out right now for free on my home page
WT dot buzz, backslash TC. As of this moment, I
have not posted anything for Monday night. It's been a
little bit of a hectic morning. We get done with
the show, we'll post what we're gonna post for today.
So I apologize for not having everything up right and
early this morning, But some mornings are like that, and
I'd rather take my time and do it right than
Russ and post something, you know, just to have it
up there. So yeah, absolutely, we're.
Speaker 2: Looking for quality, not quantity here on Opening line Report, Teddy,
I bet against both these teams yesterday, and one worked
out well for me and the other not so much.
But the reason why is because I was taking a
page out of our good friend Marco d'angelo's book, A
little bit of a Sandwich game. Now, maybe that Lions
Rams game mint a little bit more to the Rams
than I thought it did. But Seattle just slept walk
versus Indianapolis. It was mind boggling. How many field goals
did they kick? Six field goals? Was it to win
that football game? Just a snoozefest? Philip Rivers Almost cash
is an eight dollars underdog breakdown Thursday night football for me.
Speaker 3: Let's start by opening the show with an emergency betting
alert right from the get go looking aheadline. Here Seattle
minus won forty six and a half. My powering number
Seattle minus one and a half. The markets opened with
the Rams. The favorites minus one slash one and a
half forty four forty four have total last night. What
are we seeing this morning? The money's already coming for
the Seattle game. Look at line has Seahawks favored. The
Rams left yesterday's game with questions, big questions in terms
of their health of their receivers, most notably Devonte Adams
who heard his hamstring and Adams an impact player for
that team. He's already had two other instances this season
where he's been limited by hamstring injury. So that is
a significant concern for LA for this ballgame. But what
we've seen again the injury report not good for the
Rams right now. What we've seen the one one and
a half of the Rams last night is now you know,
I'm seeing there's still some one and a half, so
out there the leading indicator Polk's already get pick up
for this ball game for Seattle. I'm anticipating Seahawks' money
based on the injury report for the LA Rams. So
if you'll like Seattle, bet them sooner rather than later.
There's some urgency to this. The markets are already moving.
That said, there's things select about the Rams. Be back
to back weeks of five hundred plus yards of offense
the LA Rams. They had six trips to the red
zone yesterday, scored four touchdowns, and they faced some adversity yesterday,
which is a good thing four teams when they overcome it.
At this age of the season, I like teams that
have proven that they can overcome adversity. The Rams trailed
the biggest depth sit in two months when they felt
ten points behind Detroit and then pretty much dominated the
rest of the game. Nose tackle Kobe Turner. When we're
firing all songs, when we're firing out all cylinders, man,
you put your foot in the gas. Everybody behind. They
did clinch a playoff spot with the win over Detroit.
Yesterday's the seventh time in nine seasons under Sean McVay
that they've been a playoff team. But the Rams with
the DeVante out of and of course Puka left the
game yesterday as well. He returned, but we'll see if
there's a lingering issues there. There could be. And Seattle
played a bad game yesterday. It was a bad spot.
It was a flat spot. They were going again. Forty
four year old quarterback the asseve Lion got pushed around.
I'll give Indies defensive credit. They came to play and
Seattle was a little bit flat. They only had fifty
rushing yards in the in the ballgame. The offense didn't
reach the end zone. You talked about Jason Myers kicking
the franchise record six field goals. Myers a weapon row.
You know, he leads the NFL with one hundred and
fifty four points. He's twenty four of his last twenty
five field goals, the only miss a sixty one yarder
during that span. Seattle's going to take money. They've already
taken a little bit of money. I expect they're going
to take more.
Speaker 2: I'm back here waiting in the wings, trying to see
if I can find some teaser opportunities with the Seahawks,
and I'm looking at a couple other ones. We'll get
into them here in just a minute. Teddy, here's the
next one down on your list, and this is a
I don't know what to make of this Packers team.
Yesterday I put him in my super contest entries. I
bet him early and then I ended up teasing the Broncos.
Broncos another game. They just figure out a way to
win at home. The Bears thought this was an ultimate
flat spot against the Browns yesterday, was watching the game
with Grandma. She said, I can't believe you took the
Browns with seven and a half in your contest, I said, Grandma,
they played Packers and then Packers. This is a total
sandwich spot. Yet only one of these teams lost, the
other one absolutely dominated. Kind of talk to me about
this divisional rivalry, two teams that are jockeying for first
place here in the NFC North.
Speaker 3: Sure look headline here green Bay minus three total forty
five and a half. My powering number after the game
and after the path you were going to talk a
lot about injuries, because there were impact injuries yesterday. After
the Packers' injuries in that ballgame yesterday, my powering number
came Chicago minus one. So at the four point move
off the lookheadline of Packers minus three, the markets opened
green Bay. There were minus one and a half minus
twos last night, and that's basically what we're seeing today,
mostly minus one and a half out there for the Packers.
There are us minus twos total sitting forty six and
a half, so an uptick from what we saw on
the look headline for green Bay. They were up twenty
three to fourteen in Denver. They forced a Broncos punt
and we're in position to really take control of that game.
And then what happened Jordan love iron t on the
next play. They gave up a touchdown on each of
the next three drives and the offense couldn't move the
ball at all down the stretch. Fifty five total yards
for Green Bay on their last six drives combined. We
talked about the injuries, and you're gonna hear a lot
about Michael Parson'll talk about him in a minute. Christian
Watson matters for this offense. Yes, Golden green Bay has
wide receiver depth, but Watson's their big play weapon. He's
the guy who stretches the field. They miss him when
he's out. He was in the hospital last night in Milwaukee.
Was I'm sorry he was in the hospital last night
in Denver. They did fly home with the Packers. We'll
have to see how healthy he's gonna be. And then
obviously Michaeh Parsons, who's been, you know, an impact player
from the first day they got him. Looks like he
tore his ACL in a non contact injury. And boy,
what was the difference yesterday? Denver four or four in
the red zone? Green Bay one of four in the
red zone. Now they fall behind the Bears. So they're
looking up at Chicago in the standings and they're laying
points at Soldier Field. Matt Lafleur after the game, talking
about what they're what they have to do. I told
the guys quote, nobody's gonna feel sorry for us. Everyone's
gonna have to elevate their play. And that's the truth.
It's a team right now that you know, that was
a That was a bad loss yesterday, and it was
a costly loss for Green Bay. As for Chicago, I
mean their defense controlled the flow. We why it's done
all year. We talk all about Caleb Williams. The true
talk about Chicago is their league leading thirty takeaways this season,
three more yesterday, the health of Cleveland, the nine first downs.
You know, this defense is changing games just about every week.
You know, sheuldre got the three interceptions with sack five times,
and oh by the way, they stopp the run to
the tune of Judkins in twelve rushes for twenty one yards.
You know, Sanders after the game, I like the quotes
from the opposing team about the team they just faced.
Sanders quote, that had a great defensive scheme. I enjoyed
playing that. It was definitely a challenge. I look forward
to learning from that. Bears defense is making noise right now.
Packers defense got gashed a little bit yesterday.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about defenses getting gashed, because Dan
Alexander really wants to hear about his team getting absolutely worked.
Speaker 1: And now they have to play a commander's team.
Speaker 2: Hey, I know that it wasn't you know, some prolific
offense that they had to play yesterday.
Speaker 1: But boy did the Washington Commanders kind of come out
of nowhere.
Speaker 3: They played the Giants, but they played well. Look at
line here. Philadelphia five and a half forty five. My
powering number has eagles minus seven over Washington. The markets
opened six. There were forty fives and forty four and
a halfs last night. And what are we seeing right
now at the Othogic Live odd screen six forty five,
forty four and a half the pavilion numbers. There are
a couple of five and a half's out there for Philadelphia.
The pavilion number is six. Again, my powering number says
it should be seven. Philly pretty dominant yesterday. Twenty seven
to seven first downs, they had forty minutes of possession.
They went ten to thirteen on third downs. They didn't
turn the ball over, excuse me, excuse me, and they
allowed only seventy five total yards, their first shutout in
seven years. You know, they scored more than twenty one
points on offense for the first time in six games.
Saquon Barkley quote, I feel like we got caught up
in stuff that doesn't matter the buildings. That matters is
winning football. And you know, Philly has had more than
their share of off field distractions this season. As for Washington,
they had a putt return touchdown yesterday. They snapped an
eight game skid. Marcus Mariota. You know, we talked about
it when Daniels came back. I'm like, Mariota has been fine.
Quarterback has n't been their problem. They only had ten completions,
but he averaged more than eleven yards per pass. The
tempt debo making plays, McLaurin, making plays. Washington's offense looked
like it's supposed to look this year. You know, the
quotes after the game, Mariota, there's nothing like a winning
locker room. It's hard to go two months without winning
a football game. You know, you snapped an eight game skid.
Their celebration in the NFL. McLaurin quote, it feels amazing
to win a football game. It's been a long season.
You come out here, you get a win, you really
appreciate that feeling. So yeah, Washington, the effort was there yesterday,
the production was there yesterday. But obviously some of that
has to do with the fact they faced an opponent
that's a lot weaker than the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: You just mentioned the Browns and what a pitiful performance
Excuse me it was by Shader Sanders. Three interceptions was
the demise of his team.
Speaker 1: Now Buffalo, who was well, just.
Speaker 2: Another great second half performance by them over their divisional rival.
The Patriots now head to Cleveland as a double did
your favorite.
Speaker 3: Sure look aheadline? Here was Bill's minus eight and a
half last minus nine, little forty one and a half. Course,
the bet look at the lines of betable lines on
this game from last week, so we can see how
much one week affected the points spread. My powering number
after yesterday's game, and again the powering numbers are just
team eight TEMB. Home field does not factor in situation.
You do worry about situation a little bit here for
Buffalo coming off a pretty big Cup Ride win yesterday,
my powering number has the Bill's nine. The markets open
ten and forty two and a half last night, and
let's do it right now for the total emergency betting
alert wise, if you like the window right now, there's
a forty three out there, there are forty two and
a half's out there. The market's going to forty two
and forty two a key number when it comes to
total market could go lower than that depending on the
weather forecast in Cleveland this weekend. Bottom line, if you
like Bills Browns under, there's urgency and numbers. Again, you
can find a forty three right now in a forty
two and a half. I'm not convinced those are gonna
be there twenty four hours from now. So urgency for
Bills Browns to the under. Buffalo allowed two hundred and
forty six rushing yards yesterday. They allowed two fifty plus
yards treviaon Henderson touchdowns. You worry about this defense. They
gave up seven point five yards per play, gained only
five point two, and won the game. Reached ten wins
for the seventh consecutive season. You know, Josh Allen quote,
no matter what the score is, if it's in the
third quarter, in the fourth quarter, whatever it is, we
got a chance and we got the ball. We feel
like we like our chances, and that's what you have
when you have a franchise QB like Josh Allen behind center.
Three times this year, Buffalo's come back from double digit deficits.
You know, they beat Baltimore in the opener, they beat Cincinnati,
and they did it again yesterday against New England. So
it's a Bills team that's showing and proving to us
they can withstand adversity. I do worry about that run defense,
but Cleveland's not exactly run the football particularly well. I
talked about how the Brown struggled yesterday in terms of
three picks for scheduers who was sacked five times. They
couldn't run the ball and there was no way to
rally from behind in that game. There wasn't much fight.
The temperature kickoff was eight degrees. Cleveland now one and
six straight up their last seven, and of those six losses,
only one of them has come by less than a
touchdown during that span. Kevin Stefanski talking about his rookie
QB quote, he's a young player that's making progress, and
then we talked about that all week. I see it
in games, I can see him practice. They're gonna be
ups and downs for young players, particularly the quarterback position,
to all learn from it and will be better next week.
That to me is a perfect quote that's true about Chador.
There's gonna be ups and downs. He is a rookie
who you know is gonna come in and there'll be
games like yesterday. Doesn't mean every game will be like yesterday,
but certainly yesterday was not pretty. If you had Cleveland
plus the points, this game.
Speaker 1: Is not gonna be pretty. Teddy, the Jets are headed
to New Orleans.
Speaker 2: But I will say this, is it crazy to say
that there is.
Speaker 1: A resurgence in the New Orleans Saints team? Tyler show
playing clean football if you will.
Speaker 2: They have nothing to play for, but it seems like
they're having a really good time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they made me money yesterday. So I don't know
if there's gonna be a long term resurgence, But the
Saints were one of those that I just couldn't talk
myself out of yesterday. And when they were down ten,
I wasn't thrilled with the wager, but obviously they came
back and made all the plays down the stretch. Tyler
shucks permiting to be and again, when you were a
twenty six year old quarterback who played five years at
three different colleges. You have more experience and more systems,
and you have maybe more potential as a rookie than
some of these qbs. Look headline here. There were threes
for the Saints and three and a halfs thirty nine
and a half for the total. My powering number for
the game came four and a half. The markets opened
four and forty and a half last night. The four
and a half have mostly been taken out. There's still
a handful out there if you want the under bet
it now for the ailing number. As we speak, there
are some four and a half's out there as well,
but I don't know. There's a huge sense of urgency
in that regard. And the Jets have been rough all right,
you know. There are yards per play seven point four
to four point two. Yesterday in Jacksonville, Steve Wilkes, who
was a big back over the summer. One of my
big notes is Steve Wilkes's DC question mark Excel makes
point question mark because Wilkes had, like each of his
last five jobs has ended after one year. He's ended
being fired, and I'm like, that's the tired retread and
this defense. Two weeks ago, they gave up touchdowns to
their first three drives. This last week, they gave up
touchdowns in their first three drives. And when you give
it up opponent scoring touchdowns your first three times in
the game, and you're starting an undrafted rookie QB and
Brady Cook, you ain't gonna win. You know. They allow
their most points since they lost to New England in
twenty twenty one, fifty four to thirteen. You know, and
the injury list for the Jets on defense is a
mile long. They started I think three or four rookies yesterday,
you know, and andraft to rookie QB at It's it's
not going to be a pretty ending of the season
for the Jets, and it hasn't been a pretty ending
in recent weeks. And you know, it's they've been playing
like a true bottom feeder of late. As for the Saints,
I mean, Tyler Shuck's making me money, man. You know,
they're three and three in shuck six starts. You know,
Kellen Moore, his steadiness is really special. He made some
big time plays deefas event Chase Young every week I
can see he's getting more comfortable. He just started to
look like that guy. Whatever he's doing, we got to
get him to keep doing it. You know, eight point
five years for past time. Yesterday he was a leading
rusher as well, no turnovers, a twenty seven to fifteen
first down edge. The Saints are playing a little bit
better than their record would indicate. The question is, now
they've beaten the visional rival, they do it again, back
to back wins for New Orleans. Is that the type
of team you want to lay a price with in
week number three? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I don't know, Teddy, I'm not sure I'm ready to
lay the points with New Orleans. But I want no
part of this Jets team, another team that I thought
I wanted know part of. And then I saw a
tweet last night and I bet the Vikings laid and hey,
they get eliminated from the postseason, and all of a
sudden they want to win back to back football games.
What do you think about this Giants team that just
got blown out yesterday now laying points on the road
here with the Vikings.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so look ahead, line here Minnesota minus one and
a half forty three. My powering number comes Vikings minus two.
The markets last night where there were two and a
halfs and forty four and a halfs out there, and
today we're seeing threes as well as the two and
a half's out there. There are still plenty of two
and a halfs. And given what Minnesota did in Dallas
on national TV, I understand, look at line is only
one and a half. I understand my powering number is
only two. I would not be shocked at all if
the two and a halfs get bought up to three. Here,
Leading Indicator books already a three. A Vegas books already
a three. Let's do one more emergency betting alert before
we're all said and thought. Now, you know the giants
last win came before they allowed thirty three points in
the fourth quarter at Denver. They're oh to eight straight
up and their last eight ball games four and four
against the spread during that span. The point spread's always
a great equalizers. But yes, they give them a punt
return touchdown. You know they moved up to the number
one spot for the draft next spring. A team has
already fired their coach, which means the interim coach. You
know how much the Giants want to win these games
as an organization, the players do as an organization. It
does not be whove them to win games down the stretch.
Really doesn't Jackson Dart again win a concussion protocol yesterday.
You know, it's only been back two weeks since his
last time in concussion protocol. His quote, I've never gone
this long without a win in my career. I know
that isn't going to be the case for the future
and things are gonna eventually turn around. I definitely have
that in my mind. Obviously. The team who want to
get that switched immediately maybe Minnesota again. You talked about
they were eliminated before kickoff after winning fourteen games last
year and then won back to back games that were
the much better team in Dallas last night, And really,
I mean that was a Brian Flores game. Flores Flummox
Dak Prescott in the red zone, and it was a
JJ McCarthy game. McCarthy, it's only his eighth NFL game,
all right. Quote. I think they just experience getting too
my eighth game and just feeling more and more comfortable
pocket seeing the defenses of just another piece of the puzzle.
He had two hundred and fifty passing yards. He wasn't sacked.
He averaged ten point four yards per pass attempt. You know,
Jalen Naylor, It's just a thing to keep building on
the rest of the way and leading in the next year,
leading in the next year. We just have a one
game mindset no matter what our record. Is not surprised
that we've seen some vikings money already. I wouldn't be
surprised if we see a little bit more given the
different trajectories of these two teams in recent weeks.
Speaker 2: Teddy, I have a funny friend gambling group chat, and
the first text I woke up to this morning was
to aero Epstein ask her if she was gonna go
to this game, and it said, Ariel, are you gonna
go watch your.
Speaker 1: Ravens play my Patriots?
Speaker 2: And I left, I said, wait, are the Ravens still
on the outside looking into the playoffs?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 1: What are we looking at here for this team?
Speaker 2: Talk to me about the Patriots off that divisional loss,
Baltimore off.
Speaker 1: That divisional win.
Speaker 2: And if you think that Baltimore Ravens have a chance
here to salvage their season.
Speaker 3: Of course the most they definitely have a chance to
salvage their season. They're very much live in the NFC
North are the AFC North, I should say, you know
they're gonna get another chance with Pittsburgh to make the
I'm just pulling off the standing. So I got them
right here. I whish I probably should have had before
I went on the show, But you know how that
stuff is. Yeah, I mean Pittsburgh seven and six and
they played a night Baltimore seven and seven, So we're
not talking about a huge difference between the two teams.
And even if Pittsburgh wins tonight, the Ravens will have
a chance against the Steelers they still meet. But again,
look headline here, Baltimore minus one and a half forty
seven and a half. My powering number Baltimore minus one,
which surprised me. Last night we saw Ravens two and
a half and forty eight and a half as a
prevailing number on the Odds Logic Live odd screen, and
today that's basically what we're seeing, two and a halfs
and threes out there for the Ravens. This will be
the Sunday night game this next week, and it's a
split market right now. I don't know that we're going
to see threes. I'm not gonna emergency betting alert it
right here. But if you'll like New England, you can
find a plus three right now. I don't think you're
going to see three and a halfs for this ball game,
so it wouldn't hurt you. They're out there, and sometimes
I feel like I should emergency beting alert because if
you like New England, you can find threes right now,
and I don't. I don't know where this is going.
Ltimore still has a lot of betting market support. You know,
they only ran forty plays the whole game on offense yesterday,
sven point ninety yards per play. They would er for
one in the red zone. It feels to me like
this offense is still a little bit broken. Lamar only
had two carries, and then again, when Derek Henry and
Keith Mitchell are running nineteen times for one hundred and
sixty six yards in the ground, you don't need Lamar
Jackson to run the football. You can have a broken
offense you can run the football that effectively. And they
just big play after a big play from the running
game yesterday. And of course the divisional revenge felt meaningful,
especially when you lost that first meeting at home, you know,
and then it's relatively short turnaround like we saw again
Cincy yesterday. You know, defensive back of Lloyd Gilman who
had it was part of that pick six that you
really turned the game completely. In Baltimore's favorite yesterday quote,
I think we were pissed off we lost in the
first time. I'm not gonna lie. It was good to
get out there and put that on tape, let everyone
know they were ready to roll. Since that one in
five start raven six and two straight up four and
four ats the great equalizer the points spread. Five of
the six wins have come against teams with losing records.
For the Patriots, I mean, Drake May wasn't good enough yesterday.
You know, they're up twenty one and nothing, and they
kind of took their foot off the gas pedal May
fourteen to twenty three, one p fifty five no touchdowns
one or see. Actually it was sacked three times. You know,
when you have the two big play touchdowns. The second
big play touchdown from Trayvon Henderson might have hurt them
as much to help them, because they put the tire
defense back on the field and that Josh Allen was
able to pick them apart. You know, they needed a
kind of a one They didn't need a one play drive,
they needed an extended drive. In that situation, you can't
turn look at a big play touchdown and go oh,
that was a wrong that was a wrong thing. But
in that instance, it didn't help the Patriots like it
should have. That Big said the offense got shut down
after halftime, Drake may quote, we just have to be
better when we're up. I don't feel like we relaxed.
We just didn't make enough plays. The betting market disrespect
for New England was very much on display yesterday. All
the money came for Buffalo late and this too is
showing us betting markets respect for a New England Patriots
team that there's still question marks about, even though they're
still on top of the AFC East.
Speaker 1: Are a team that is just sliding reeling.
Speaker 2: If you will here in South Florida, that would be
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Man, it has been a rough
go for this team Panthers. As we just mentioned, Teddy,
I was on the Saints yesterday, but I didn't have
as much guts as you did, so I put them
in a teaser.
Speaker 1: I will gladly take that as well.
Speaker 2: Carolina was kind of my pick at four to one
to win this South Division. Talk about Tampa Bay's recent slide, Carolina,
do they get back on track here?
Speaker 3: Sure? And of course the Bucks and Panthers will meet
twice in the final three weeks of the regular season.
This meeting won't decide anything. Is likely to be the
second of the two meetings. Who's going to decide who's
going to win this division? That being said, there's certainly
urgency when you have two teams tied at the top
of the division, there's three weeks left and you're having
your first matchup of the year between them. Look headline
Tampa two and a half forty four and a half.
My powering number Tampa only minus one. The markets opened
two and a half forty five and a half last night.
We're seeing lots of threes out there. In fact, we're
seeing almost all threes out there right now. For of
the Tampa Bay Bucks, despite all their struggles again oh
one in five straight up oh and six against the
spread since the beginning of November. The only win came
by three against Arizona, and they couldn't hold a lead
in that game. I had them that week and I
remember that. I was like, what are they doing out there?
And they haven't done any better since they hung on
for the W But it wasn't pretty. So oh and
six ats slide. Can't get off the field on third
and twenty eight or fourth and fourteen to win the game?
Baker Mayfield not blaming the defense for not being able
to get off the field on third and twenty eight
and fourth and fourteen. Quote, this one's gonna haunt me.
It falls on my shoulder. It's not the defense's fault,
it's my fault. First time all year, Bakers had the
full compliment of receivers available. And this team is loaded
with weapons right now. You know, whether it's Mike Evans
or Jayalen McMillan both coming back to the lineup. I
mean there's you know, no shortage. You know, Bucky Irving's
healthy and Bucah's has been one of the Rookie of
the Year candidates. I mean their weapons all over the
field right now for Tampa that there weren't a month ago.
Tod Bowles ripped into the team after the game. We'll
see how they respond. Quote, you don't make excuses. You
got a bleeping care enough what the bleep hurts. It's
kind of bleeping means something to you. It's more than
a job, it's your bleeping livelihood. How well do you
know your job? How well can you do your job?
You can't sugarcoat that bleep. Yeah, Todd Bowles was not amused.
We'll see how Tampa responds to that. They could respond positively,
maybe not so much. As for Caroline. Again, I bet
against them yesterday. This is not a Panthers team I
trust when you look at the power rating, my car
rading numbers are going to playoff contenders. Carolina. I believe
they're at the very bottom of teams that are, you know,
intention to winning division title Donell and Hubbard, you know,
twenty four to seventy eight, barely three yards per carry.
And when they can't run, they can't win. And that
was the essence of my Saints bed yesterday. Bryce Young
made plays. They converted seven third downs, They converted some
low percentage throws there. But receivers are making plays. And
yet at the end of the game he's finished with
one hundred and sixty three passing yards. You know, Bryce
Young quote, it was just a lack of execution where
a team that prides ourselves in the finish and we
just didn't get that done today. It's not gonna feel
good for twenty four hours. We have a locker room
full of guys who want to do better. This one
could come down to who's hungrier. And the Bucks have
won five straight division titles. The Panthers are a hungry team.
If they're not a question, they're good enough.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna find out that's the good news when
these two get to play each other. Teddy covers really
quickly shout out to over almost twenty one hundred of
you guys right now watching us live, either on social
media or the wager Talk YouTube channel. Special shout out
to those Wager Times insiders here in the comment section, Teddy,
how's your NFL season been going over the past couple
of weeks.
Speaker 1: I know that you were a little displeased there, but.
Speaker 2: Now it seems like you're pretty chipper, which kind of
tells me you've been cashing some nice tickets.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was bored than displeased. I was freaking pissed
because you know, well, look, I worked the NFL hard,
all right, I do. I watch every you know, I'm
watching all every Sunday, I'm reading every quote. I'm going
through every injury report. This is for I'm supposed to
beat and when I'm not beating it, I get frustrated.
And Yeah, So the last couple weeks been real good.
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Speaker 2: All right, Teddy, I got to cash my Chiefs three
to one. No playoffs Chiefs under love knop wins. But
I didn't want it to do like this.
Speaker 1: I didn't want.
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes hurt acl tear for the star quarterback there
of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Now they're on the road here.
Speaker 2: I believe it's Gardner Minshew that will be getting the
nod as the starter at the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna se a pretty big difference between the
look head line and the actual line for this ball game.
Look aheadline here CAC minus ten and a half total
forty one. My powering number with Gardner and I again
we talked about how to adjust. You have to adjust
for Gardner Minshew versus Patrick Mahomes, and you have to
adjust for a Kansas City team that's played in the
last five Super Bowls now being eliminated from the playoffs.
I adjusted seven and a half points. My powering number
came Kansas City two and a half. The markets opened
threes last three and a half, thirty seven and a
half last night again to look at here was forty
one four Chiefs Titans. And what are we seeing? We're
seeing threes mostly in three and a half. Maybe they
split line three three and a half. I'm not seeing
the urgency to bet to take the plus three and
a half or the bet of minus threes right now.
Total thirty seven and a half for this one. And
Minshew's a pretty big drop off from Patrick Mahomes. By
pretty big, I mean as big as the biggest drop
off between a quarterback starty qv in a backup in
the league. And of course Mahomes the torn ACL. He's
gonna have surgery. He will be out until next till
but potentially into next season. Mahomes quote, don't know why
this had to happen. Not gonna lie. It hurts. All
we can do now is trust in God and attack
every single day, over and over again. Kansas City no
running game yesterday. Running backs nineteen to thirty nineteen carries
thirty four yards along of seven. That being said, they're
facing Tennessee. Tennessee's the worst team in the league. Still.
The defense. I talked about that about like a month
ago or two. I thought the defense had potential. No,
you know, cam Ward had no picks, no sacks, no quit.
They had two fourth quarter scoring drives after falling behind
by three touchdowns. Tennessee's been okay coming through the back
door this year. But the defense has been struggling. The
first they go up twenty nine of the Browns here,
they didn't force a forty nine Ers punt. You know,
interim head coach Mike McCoy, you got to be able
to get off the field. You converted a high rate
that percentage, it's tough. That's when you give up all
the points. So you got to be able to get
off the field on third downs. They haven't been able
to do that. No. By the way, I think their
top three safeties all left with injuries yesterday did not return.
Tennessee's defensive was certain is likely to continue moving forward.
Speaker 2: Not good news for either one of those teams. Teddy,
let's talk about well, the good news was for the Chargers, right,
they took a step forward in the AFC West.
Speaker 1: The Cowboys, WHOA.
Speaker 2: I was not expecting the Vikings doing outright, But like
I said, I saw some line move there late and
I thought, oh, I better jump on board with the Vikings.
This Cowboys seemed looked improved there for a few weeks.
Last night, though, they got absolutely gashed by a quarterback
that well, let's say, is mediocre best.
Speaker 1: What's justin Herbert going to do to this team.
Speaker 3: Now, well, I don't know how much Justin Herbert can
do right now, give me I mean Herbert hand injury,
he says, banged up as a quarterback gets. And every
week you read the quotes from all around the Chargers
talking about how tough this guy is and how much
they respect him for being tough. Look aheadline here, Cowboys
minus two and a half, forty eight and a half
my powering number, and you have to adjust for Dallas
after that loss yesterday, the back to back losses for
the Cowboys, Chargers minus one. With my party number the markets,
they're one and a half for Dallas and forty nine
at the open. Yes, and the look at and that's
kind of what I'm seeing today. One and a half
forty nine and a half for the Cowboys as favorites
over the Chargers. The Chargers six to one straight up,
five and two against spread their last seven games. They
just beat both Super Bowl teams from last year. Over
the last two weeks, they swept Kansas City, knocking out
of the playoffs, knocked off Philly in overtime the previous week.
You know, Harbaugh quote, this is a ball team starting
to think this is my favorite ball team I've ever
been on. I've been on a lot of teams, none
better than this team. It's a ball team, a real
ball team. Love these guys. You know Derwin James talking
about the importance of beating Kansas City quote, we know
what that team has done the last eight nine years.
Coming to Arrowhead and getting a win, it means a
lot for our team because we're five to zero in
our division. This not a division game. We worried about
a letdown potentially, but I mean the Cowboys. You can't
give up thirty four to Minnesota and get Saxon McCarthy
and expected to be a playoff team. You know, Brian
Flores is stimy Dak in the red zone. Two of
five in the red zone for Dallas, they have to
win their last three and hope Philly goes oh to
three to make the playoffs. So they're still alive. They're
saying there's still a chance, but last night's loss effectively
into their season. Dak Prescott definitely surprised, especially the get
rolling like we did for those few weeks and watch
the confidence just skyrocket, stopping team scoring a will coming
back from twenty one points down. A lot of good
wins there that to be in this position just reminds
you every play matters. It's a hard game. Dallas now
sitting six seven and one, a sub five hundred team.
As we approach week fifteen.
Speaker 2: Teddy, talk to me about some of these teams where
they're maybe headed into opposite directions but still have an
outside shot to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: What are we looking at this far into the season.
Speaker 2: I want to kind of sift through the narratives and
some of the bs. I know power ratings reigned supreme,
but at the end of the day, have certain teams quit.
Let's get into this Bengals Dolphins team. The Bengals just
absolutely worked, right, they rushed back Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1: It seemed to be a good thing, right.
Speaker 2: They went on Thanksgiving, they almost beat the Bills. Then
yesterday Ravens get the revenge. Kind of talk to me
about I don't know, maybe the mental wellbeing of some
of these teams, Like, are you know that I see
the comments, Oh the Jets quit, Oh, this team quit, Well,
the Saints didn't quit. What are we thinking about the
Bills here at the Dolphins or excuse me, the Bengals
here at the dolphinsxcuse me.
Speaker 3: Bengals Dolphins is not mixed up for me?
Speaker 2: Well, I'm going off Dan Alexander's slide. I apologize that
to not have this up. Cardinals, Falcons, We're gonna go
up next. This is actually a better segue because neither
of these teams have anything to play for Teddy, Yeah,
somehow we're stuck with them here in week sixteen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look at line here, Arizona minus one, one a
hand a half total forty five. My powering number has
Atlanta minus two. The market's open Atlanta minus one and
a half forty six last night, and we've seen nothing
but Falcons money two and a half the prevailing number.
This morning, we've all seen nothing but over money forty
seven and a half the prevailing total. So we're seeing
Falcons money and over money. I wouldn't argue if you
wanted to bet Atlanta now. I don't know that we're
gonna see a whole lot of Arizona money. I mean,
I'll give I continue to give credit to the Cardinals
because they could mean a fight. They're down thirty to
seven and they kept fighting yesterday. You know, the next
thing you know they're a missed two point version away
from covering. I give credit to Dakobe were Satid, I
give credit to Jonathan Gannon, but they've now lost six straight.
Their last win they had to beat the Cowboys in
that one game. But remember this team started two and oh.
They're one and eleven since that two and oh start,
and they were down ten to nothing before the first
offensive snap. You know, give up a big play, touchdown, fumble,
the kick return. You know, Jonathan and quote, we got
beat by a good football team. We didn't play well enough.
We're going and go back to work. Yeah, okay. Atlanta
has been favored six times this year. They lost five
of them outright. The only win came by a touchdown
her home against Washington Cousins. A great night on Thursday
night football. No picks, only sacked once, eight point five
yards were pass tempt You know his quote, pro football
tests you. It keeps me on my knees in prayer.
It's been a difficult two years since tearing my achilles.
All I know is to trust and to keep going
and walk by faith, not by sight, and that can
be hard. Sometimes nights like tonight you get a boost.
I see if Drake London is involved here, Drake lunnon,
I mean this offense with Pitts and Robinson and London
should be pretty close, not unstoppable, but should be better
than it's been. London has been hurt. The offense has
been hit or miss. It hit last week in Tampa,
especially in the fourth quarter. Don't know that necessarily carries
over to Arizona, long way from home for a losing
team at the tail end of a disappointing season.
Speaker 1: Yay, Teddy, we get a good game here.
Speaker 2: That is the Jacksonville Jaguars are headed to Denver, and
as I mentioned to start the show, seems like Denver cannot.
Speaker 1: Lose at mile High. JAG's been playing red hot as well.
Speaker 2: Kind of let me know what your thoughts are on
this matchup. I don't know what to make of the Broncos.
Let's just be real. This is a team that I
have kind of said has been fraudulent, but the defense
is not bo Nicks. I feel like if he makes
no mistakes, this team thrives. If he turns the ball over,
it gets risky late.
Speaker 3: So he asked me Denver and New England. I'll take Denver.
You know what I mean of which of the two
teams is real real err, I will definitely take Denver.
I don't think it's close in that regard, at least
in my opinion. From powering standpoint, I don't have the
two teams way up apart from each other. But from
if it's a playoff game between Denver and New England,
I'll trust the Broncos more plan and simple, and that's all.
I'll trust Sean Payton to coach a team in a
big game way before I'll trust Mike Rabel in that
regard to Rabel, one of the more overrated head coaches
in this better's opinion. Look headline here, there were two
and a half and threes for Denver total forty three.
My powering number came Broncos three. The markets opened three
and forty six last night. What are we see in today?
Three and forty six? There are some forty five and
a half's out there, so not much movement on this
one long way from home from Jacksonville, not Jacksonville conditions
necessarily traveling at Denver, but since blowing that twenty nine
to ten fourth quarter lead in Houston, the Jags five
and oh straight up five and ats. They've won four
of those, five by seventeen points or more. Dominant football.
Trevor Lawrence yesterday five touchdown passes, the best pass rating
of his career. They still couldn't run Trevor Lunsr. Leading
rusher two. But when you're winning the yards per play
battle seven point four to four point two, you did
something right, you know. Travis at ten quote, I don't
think I've ever seen trev Trevor Lawrence like this, and
we won a national championship together. He's on fire. You've
seen it. The growth that I've seen from him is
just believable, unbelievable. Lawrence is quote definitely, this is as
confident as I felt, just a feeling in our locker
room and our team and our offense. It's been fun.
We just got to continue to build on that and
not get complacent. There's still a lot more ahead for
us that my friends bet unquote and Jacksonville has been
and may still continue to be something of an undervalid commodity.
I've been a Jaggs believer over the course of the
last month or two. As for Denver, I mean bo
Nix's making plays down the stretch again four or four
in the red zone for Denver, only one to four
for green Bay. Defense did the job and they a
had to, you know, Patrick certain quote. We got a
lot of fight the Packers. They got a great team
on both sides of the ball. We knew it was
gonna be easy. We kept corritorating that throughout the whole
ball game. Just finished, finish, finish, and we'll get the
job done. In order for us to read great, we've
got to find a way to win those games. Eleven
game winning streak. Nine of those eleven wins have come
by a single score. This team finding ways to steal
all the close games and gaining confidence in doing so
is quote Sean Payton, when you get comfortable operating in
those games, you don't think anything of it. Thanks story
like Buffalo in that regard.
Speaker 1: All right, let's keep it rolling here.
Speaker 2: The Steelers play Monday night football versus Miami tonight. But
they have a pretty big game on DAK here with
the Detroit Lions. Talk to me about Detroit Teddy. Coming
off that loss to the Rams, I got of thought,
maybe they had a shot late to get the cover
for us with no avail.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they had a shot. They were in control of
that game in the first half. Second half got away
from them pretty badly. In concerning ways. Look headline here,
Detroit minus six, last minus six and a half, A
split line there, forty nine and a half for the
prevailing total. My powering number comes Lions only five and
a half. The markets opened six and a half last
seven forty nine and a half last night, and that's
what we're seeing today before the Steelers play on Monday
Night Football. Obviously, if Pittsburgh looks good tonight, this line
likely to go down, no argument with the concept. If
you're like the Steelers tonight parably, then with the Steelers
next week. If you want to bet against Pittsburgh tonight,
probably them with the Lions for next week. That's certainly
a positive expectation strategy. As for the Lions, that was
a really costly loss. You know now that the number
eight seed in the NFC only seven teams get in
the number seventeens the Packers. The Packers swept the Lions
in two meetings. Detroit ain't winning that tiebreaker. The last
ten games, Lions are five and five straight up, and
they've alter ned to wins the losses every week the
longest winning streak has been one game during that span,
longest losing streak one game the offense. I'm thirty four
in the Rams, No shame there, but the defense has
now allowed thirty plus in each of the last three weeks.
Jared Goff, We're resilient, We really are. I expect us
to bounce back from this. We've still plenty of stuff
in front of us. We got a great group that
can win a championship. Yere Dan Campbell quote. Nikupa had
a huge day. We couldn't slow him down. Stafford played
a really high level, which you knew we did. We
couldn't disrupt him and more importantly, stop the run. We
weren't able to do that. I was like Dan Campbell's
quotes because he's honest. Most coaches aren't. But that being said,
I worry about the Lions moving forward. Lions off a loss,
best ats record in football.
Speaker 2: They are and you know what, Teddy, I do also
love coaches that tell the truth. Do you keep track
of who tells the truth and who doesn't Because we
all know Andy Reid loves to lie, we all know
Dan Campbell have to tell the truth. But there's a
lot of guys that you kind of have to sit
through some of the bs to figure out if they're
bsing you.
Speaker 3: So Mike Tomlin is truthful in the regular season and
in the preseason. All he does is live, not lie.
But he changes his mind about his player rotations. Don't
trust Tomlin, quotes in August, but I trust him in September. Cool,
this one.
Speaker 2: Mental note for next preseason. All right, A interesting shift
here for the Houston Texans started off ice cold. Davis
Mills got them on a nice hot streak.
Speaker 1: CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud keeping it going. Now they've got the easiest team
on the board to beat. All they've got to do
is beat the Las Vegas Raiders here on Sunday, at
least for my Survivor pool.
Speaker 3: Please, Yeah, look aat line here, Texans minus twelve and
a half, thirty seven and a half. My powering number,
Texans minus thirteen. The market's open fourteen and thirty seven,
and we haven't seen any takers on the Raiders at
plus fourteen fourteen and a half already popping up for
a Houston And I don't know if that's their points
spread range, you know what I mean? The Raiders is
second time this year, they've been shut out exactly thirty
one to nothing. Second time this year they shout out
thirty one to nothing and not gained one hundred yards
of offense. Kenny Pickett was fifteen of twenty five for
sixty four yards, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked
four times, so that's a net of twenty nine passing
yards on twenty nine dropbacks and seventy five total yards
for the game. Pete Carroll quote, the only good thing
that happened we didn't have anyone hurt today. You know,
that's looking for silver Linons. Coach Carroll quote, This is
a result against the world champs last year, who maybe
weren't playing quite like that for a month here or whatever,
but they look like it today. It looked like a
great team today. Who they played Houston. Six game winning
streak five and one ATS. That's our longest winning streak
since twenty eighteen started zero and three. Now they're one
game behind the Jags. They have a ten win team
and they're in the wild card position. If the season
ended today. Nico Collins with a huge game, fast start
the ten to nothing before Arizona even had their first snap.
You know, CJ. Stroud quote. We started off a little rough,
of course, but you want to be playing your best
ball in December going in January. Since we're doing that,
it's really good. Every We could just keep progressing. I
think that's all we can do right now. Tmiko, Ryan,
If you go out and handle business each week, you're
just putting yourself in a better spot, not really focused
on what anyone else in the AFC is doing. Focus
in the Texans. Focus on stepping your game up and
playing better. I can't lay fourteen. I'm not taking the Raiders,
but this is not a spot. I'm gonna lay fourteen
with Houston.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I am going to use them in Survivor.
Speaker 2: Hopefully some of you guys are still alive in your
Survivor pools as well. Okay, Teddy, Now we can talk
about the Bengals versus Miami off this Monday night football game.
Speaker 3: Sure, look aadline here was pick them total fifty and
a half. My poorty number has a Dolphins minus two.
The markets are showing US one and a half some
fifties out there right now. It's not a mature market. Obviously.
Miami placed tonight on Monday Night Football. Same story with Pittsburgh.
If you like the Dolphins, you can parley this week's
Monday Night Football with Miami for next week you'll beginning
the number best of the best of the number, or
you can parley it the other way. You know, you
bet the Pittsburgh tonight with Cincinnati four next week. If
you're right about what happens tonight, you'll be getting the
best of the number. Bengals were pretty rough yesterday, and
they've been pretty only started two and oher you know,
since then they're two and ten. Although five and seven
against the spread, they covered their numbers yards for play,
they were out gained seven point nine to four point two.
Burrow threw a pair of picks, including a pick six
zero to one in the red zone. Zach Taylor. It
starts on our offense getting shut out. Never saw that coming.
There's a huge amount of accountability. I have to take
time I have to take with that. It's frustrating to
score zero points. That's unacceptable. Joe Burrow quote. This is
one of the worst games I've ever played. When your
quarterback plays like that, your team's not gonna have a
chance to win. Burrow four picks in his last five
quarters since the in theory should give better effort this
week after not giving max effort in Baltimore yesterday. If
they don't, that's another notch against Zach Taylor. But theory
is supposed to be a bounced back spot for the Bengals.
Whether they're good enough to do anything about it's another
question entirely.
Speaker 2: All right, I'm not sure he's the only grandpa on
the NFL, but that was a funny narrative yesterday about
Philip Rivers.
Speaker 1: I even had to google it.
Speaker 2: I am not much younger than Philip, but I was
shocked to hear the grandparent thing. Either way, Hey, he
handled business for what he was able to do running
this Colts offense. While nothing was prolific, they had real
opportunities to win that game as a double digit underdog.
Now the Niners going on Monday Night Football as just
less than a touchdown favorite.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look aheadline here san Fran minus six, last six
and a half total of forty six. My powering number
comes san Fran four and a half. The markets opened
five and a half forty six and a half last night.
That's exactly what we're looking at this morning. Haven't seen
any movement on this one. And Kelly, I love you,
but shut up with the philip Rivers narrative. Dude, philip
Rivers sucked yesterday. Grandpa went eighteen to twenty seven for
one hundred and twenty yards, one touchdown, one pick, four
point four yards for a pass at ten, nothing but
quick release, dinky donkey. He only took one sack. The
team had three point seven yards per play. You don't
win games in the NFL with three point seven yards
per play, you know. And Jonathan Taylor ran the football effectively.
You know, defense played great. But now what have they
lost four straight five out a six, two, three and
one ats during that span? They're at a playoff position
in the AFC. Philip Rivers, Now, hey, they got Felm
on a bet. You watch at the end of the game.
He can't throw the ball thirty yards downfield, let alone
throwing a hail Mary at the end. His quote, It
was exciting, Shoot, it was exciting to take a thirteen
to three lead. But first off, a play that we
kind of had all week in the red zone in
the area on the down and distance on that hash
we practicing these ext same spot this week. So when
things go like that, they fire you up. Obviously you're
throw in the fact that it's been eighteen hundred as
and throwing a touchdown or interception for that matter. So yeah,
those boxes were checked. Philip Rivers is happy the team lost.
They're falling apart forty nine ers, aren't. They didn't punt yesterday.
They scored on the first five sessions of the game.
You know, I mean easy as the schedule can be
for San France, non divisional wins. The Saints, the Falcons,
the Giants, the Panthers, the Browns, Tennessee, the Arizona twice,
but four and oh straight up and against the spread
their last four playing their best football down the stretch.
Converted nine to fifteen third downs yesterday. Christian McCaffrey quote,
Brock was awesome today. A drake job, commanding the huddle,
made some plays with his feet, He threw the ball
down field. Guys made plays. Brock was Brock. When you
don't punt, you're doing something right. Pretty big difference between
these two teams, Although I will give Indy credit. They
fought tooth and nail yesterday, but a lot of that
was Seattle having a.
Speaker 1: Flat spot, Teddy, you were cracking me up.
Speaker 2: I'm really glad that you guys can't see me when
I'm off screen because I was howling.
Speaker 1: That was hilarious.
Speaker 2: Very good points as always by mister Covers.
Speaker 1: Teddy. We got about ninety seconds.
Speaker 2: We're gonna let you get out of here so we
can head over to wager Talk today, Andy Laying, Dan,
Alexander anything you would like to leave our audience with.
Speaker 3: Sure, Again, I really appreciate all of the common all
the likes, all the follows. Thank you guys for being
so supportive of the show. Legitimately, it gives me energy,
it makes it makes me excited to do it every
Monday morning. Most importantly, it makes me excited to prep
every Sunday night when I'm guessed. So thank you for
the likes the comments that follows. The promo code super
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enjoy the games this week, best of luck with your bets.
We'll do it again next Monday right here in another
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and of course can tuning on Sunday with end Zone
Live that too. That's a good place to spend your
Sunday afternoon. Really is