WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:02.040 There we go. Yeah, now we're just waiting on. We're 2 00:00:02.080 --> 00:00:06.400 gonna get robbercy and witness protection. Also, like Peter, ask 3 00:00:06.799 --> 00:00:11.560 not what your country can do for you, ask what 4 00:00:11.640 --> 00:00:13.240 you can do for your country. 5 00:00:13.960 --> 00:00:17.760 Mister garbachaw tear down this wall. 6 00:00:19.239 --> 00:00:21.879 It's the Ricochet Podcast with Rob Long and Stephen Hayward. 7 00:00:21.920 --> 00:00:24.079 I'm James Lillax and today we talked de roy to 8 00:00:24.199 --> 00:00:28.800 Schera about demographics, democrats, the election, So let severs was 9 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:29.359 a podcast. 10 00:00:29.600 --> 00:00:30.199 Remember this. 11 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:33.240 Our enemies are your enemies. 12 00:00:33.719 --> 00:00:35.840 Our fight is your fight, and. 13 00:00:35.880 --> 00:00:40.479 Our victory will be your victory. 14 00:00:40.799 --> 00:00:43.399 Nothing you can come in a way of saving our 15 00:00:43.399 --> 00:00:49.159 democracy that includes personal ambition. So I've decided the best 16 00:00:49.159 --> 00:00:52.479 way forward is the past, the torch for new generation. 17 00:00:56.759 --> 00:00:58.560 Welcome everybody. It's the Ricochet Podcast. 18 00:00:58.640 --> 00:00:59.000 Number. 19 00:00:59.679 --> 00:01:02.119 Well, I've been waiting for this for years. It's the 20 00:01:02.240 --> 00:01:04.599 number of the area code of the house where I 21 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:09.480 grew up, seven oh one. I still remember my I 22 00:01:09.519 --> 00:01:12.200 remember my childhood, my childhood phone number seven on one. 23 00:01:12.439 --> 00:01:14.079 I probably shouldn't say it, but I had the same 24 00:01:14.120 --> 00:01:17.400 My parents had the same phone number for decades, which 25 00:01:17.519 --> 00:01:19.519 is a by gone A a by gone time, and 26 00:01:19.560 --> 00:01:22.079 B a sign that I probably had a stable upbringing, 27 00:01:22.120 --> 00:01:24.640 which I did, which makes me the high bound person 28 00:01:24.760 --> 00:01:28.840 resistant to change that I am today I am? Did 29 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:32.719 I say James Lilas Minneapolis? Yeah, Rob Long Gotham. People 30 00:01:32.760 --> 00:01:34.000 in New York hate when they say that. 31 00:01:34.040 --> 00:01:36.480 Too bad. Stephen Hayward is an in Frisco, so I. 32 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:41.200 Can even complete the bicoastal injury. Steven Hayward was sitting 33 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:45.480 in for Peter Robinson. Welcome guys, What a week again? 34 00:01:46.920 --> 00:01:48.120 Where to start? 35 00:01:48.439 --> 00:01:51.000 I'm going to go with a big cliche, and the 36 00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:54.920 big cliche is, okay, if you had a bunch of 37 00:01:55.359 --> 00:01:58.040 crazy right wingers shown up in Washington, d C. With 38 00:01:58.200 --> 00:02:00.799 a giant statue of a class shade Jew with a 39 00:02:00.799 --> 00:02:03.040 big nose and horns and blood dripping out of his mouth, 40 00:02:03.120 --> 00:02:05.840 and they defaced all the monuments and wrote to angry things, 41 00:02:06.120 --> 00:02:08.719 I think we would be having a conversation about civil order. 42 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:12.879 But we're not the people who do. Who descended and 43 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:16.319 had basically a fascist Jew hating rally and defaced a 44 00:02:16.319 --> 00:02:17.360 whole bunch of things. 45 00:02:17.240 --> 00:02:19.599 And I hate the defacement. 46 00:02:20.840 --> 00:02:23.960 You know, some got arrested and charges dropped, and Kamala 47 00:02:24.000 --> 00:02:28.319 Harris has deplored the violence. But whether or not she 48 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:31.120 would advocate for these people to be actually clapped in irons, 49 00:02:31.159 --> 00:02:33.759 are sent off to the Who's goal is something I 50 00:02:33.800 --> 00:02:36.639 suppose we'll find in her new I forget. Has she 51 00:02:36.840 --> 00:02:40.599 reincardinated herself as the old iteration of tough on crime? 52 00:02:41.199 --> 00:02:43.560 Or are we still in the twenty twenty mode? 53 00:02:44.000 --> 00:02:44.520 What do you think is? 54 00:02:44.840 --> 00:02:45.039 Which? 55 00:02:45.159 --> 00:02:49.879 Which one are we going to see in this election cycle? Guys, Steve, oh, 56 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:52.159 you want me? You want me to go for dicta Right? 57 00:02:52.879 --> 00:02:55.240 Well, I mean I don't know. 58 00:02:55.319 --> 00:02:57.719 I'm in the camp that thinks we're about to get 59 00:02:57.719 --> 00:03:01.080 a rerun in some ways of the Night eighty eight campaign. 60 00:03:01.080 --> 00:03:04.800 You may remember the Ducaucus argued in his famous speech, 61 00:03:04.840 --> 00:03:07.800 this selection is not about ideology, it's about competence, which 62 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:10.639 meant he wanted to disguise his ideology. And according to 63 00:03:10.639 --> 00:03:14.639 some polls he was seventeen points ahead of George H. W. 64 00:03:14.719 --> 00:03:15.159 Bush. 65 00:03:15.240 --> 00:03:18.680 Bush ended up winning by eight. She had almost twenty 66 00:03:18.680 --> 00:03:21.520 five percent swing. And so right now there's a big 67 00:03:21.520 --> 00:03:24.680 surge for Harris. Her approval ratings were up fifteen points. 68 00:03:24.719 --> 00:03:28.319 She's up maybe above water, above fifty. But I think, 69 00:03:28.439 --> 00:03:30.960 I mean, among other things, she's going to try and 70 00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:33.400 straddle her past record, and I don't think she'll be 71 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:35.840 able to get away with that once the Trump campaigns 72 00:03:35.879 --> 00:03:38.520 opens up on her. And like Ducoccus, I think she 73 00:03:38.560 --> 00:03:40.919 has her own Willy Horton problem. You know, we've got 74 00:03:40.919 --> 00:03:44.560 the receipts of her urging people on Twitter to donate 75 00:03:44.639 --> 00:03:48.280 to a bail fund for the Black Lives Matter rioters 76 00:03:48.280 --> 00:03:51.319 in Minnesota in twenty twenty one of whom was bailed 77 00:03:51.319 --> 00:03:54.199 out and went out and murdered someone just like Willie 78 00:03:54.199 --> 00:03:57.479 Horton thirty some years ago. And I think he's going 79 00:03:57.520 --> 00:03:59.560 to have a hard time. She'll lie about it, the 80 00:03:59.599 --> 00:04:03.000 media will cover up. By the way, last point, I 81 00:04:03.360 --> 00:04:05.199 you know, the media is trying to give fake news 82 00:04:05.240 --> 00:04:07.479 a bad name right now the way they're covering up 83 00:04:07.520 --> 00:04:09.879 for her past. Right, she was never called the borders 84 00:04:09.879 --> 00:04:13.000 are never But even though what Google will bring up 85 00:04:13.039 --> 00:04:16.279 thirty one thousand mentions of Kamela as the borders are. 86 00:04:16.839 --> 00:04:20.319 It's unbelievable. Although you know, I've been joking that maybe 87 00:04:20.319 --> 00:04:23.199 they're right. You really can't be a czar unless you're 88 00:04:23.240 --> 00:04:26.199 from the Tsarist region of Mother Russia. Everything else is 89 00:04:26.240 --> 00:04:30.120 just sparkling Habsburg aristocracy. 90 00:04:31.279 --> 00:04:32.920 Well, she was a bizarre in the sense of the czar. 91 00:04:33.199 --> 00:04:37.120 You know, they they presided over chaos. They didn't write much. 92 00:04:37.120 --> 00:04:38.480 So yeah, there's a little that. 93 00:04:38.560 --> 00:04:40.600 What did docacas in Was it the dandie and a 94 00:04:40.639 --> 00:04:42.120 helmet in the tank moment. 95 00:04:42.040 --> 00:04:42.439 Or was it? 96 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:45.360 I was also that there was no I mean, it 97 00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:47.319 was a change election kind of, but there was no 98 00:04:47.759 --> 00:04:50.519 argument for change in eighty eight because the things were 99 00:04:50.519 --> 00:04:57.519 going great. And I mean the hard part about his 100 00:04:57.800 --> 00:05:02.360 you know, campaign histories and looking for signs in the 101 00:05:02.399 --> 00:05:07.680 past for me is that we've never had so many 102 00:05:07.759 --> 00:05:10.959 candidates running for higher office that so much of the 103 00:05:11.000 --> 00:05:16.399 country despises, not is indifferent to, not doesn't know, but 104 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:20.000 actively loads. And so you have this sort of bizar 105 00:05:20.399 --> 00:05:22.439 the Democratic side, you have this bizarre kind of like 106 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:25.959 a you know, cultish thrill, like they're all kind of 107 00:05:25.959 --> 00:05:28.120 in their weird zone where they think it's going to happen. 108 00:05:28.439 --> 00:05:31.920 Everybody loves her. They know people hate her. 109 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:33.480 And they hate the Democrats, and they hate what they 110 00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:34.759 did on the border and they what they did it 111 00:05:34.759 --> 00:05:37.160 in crime and the Yeah, these Republicans saying he's gonna win, 112 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:39.360 My guy's gonna win. Buy a landslide. Don't know, everyone 113 00:05:39.480 --> 00:05:41.560 who hated him still really hates him. That's a whole 114 00:05:41.639 --> 00:05:42.240 lot of people. 115 00:05:44.199 --> 00:05:46.399 So the best way, which is which is not the 116 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.600 case in eighty eight that nobody had ever heard of 117 00:05:48.680 --> 00:05:53.040 Caucus and people were indifferent at the worst. To George H. W. Boyce, 118 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:55.639 they are indifferent. So this is going to be a 119 00:05:55.639 --> 00:05:58.720 really interesting few months. What's fascinating about it is that 120 00:05:59.360 --> 00:06:00.839 I think the one thing we're gona be able to 121 00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:02.240 take away from historically is that. 122 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:05.600 We now know I think. 123 00:06:06.120 --> 00:06:09.879 I mean, however Kamala Harris does, She's not gonna get trounced. 124 00:06:09.959 --> 00:06:12.160 She's gonna do. You know, She's gonna either win or 125 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:15.079 lose by a small amount. And that's probably what Trump 126 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:17.720 will winner loses by it. Right, And we're going to 127 00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:22.360 discover is that these things go on too long that 128 00:06:22.480 --> 00:06:24.480 you can't actually in the middle of the summer throw 129 00:06:24.519 --> 00:06:26.040 in a candidate and have an election. 130 00:06:26.360 --> 00:06:28.680 Kind of other countries do this too, for a slightly 131 00:06:28.720 --> 00:06:29.600 less important job. 132 00:06:29.639 --> 00:06:32.800 But like, yeah, I have an election in November a 133 00:06:32.839 --> 00:06:35.439 few months later, and everybody's happy with that. Like, I 134 00:06:35.480 --> 00:06:37.399 don't think anybody's going to be complaining, Like, well, I 135 00:06:37.439 --> 00:06:39.720 really wish that had started a year ago. Like most 136 00:06:39.759 --> 00:06:42.319 people are like, man, yeah, these things go on too long. 137 00:06:42.519 --> 00:06:44.680 We're gonna this is this is an experiment in that 138 00:06:44.920 --> 00:06:48.199 and I suspect that I don't know how we how 139 00:06:48.199 --> 00:06:50.480 far you can take this in terms of political logic, 140 00:06:50.560 --> 00:06:53.000 But I suspect that we'll discover that they go on 141 00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:57.879 too long and that it and I think there's a 142 00:06:57.920 --> 00:07:03.240 secret desire, not to desire, but I think they're happy. These 143 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:08.120 political operative class of people are happy to have the 144 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:11.839 candidates despised. It's easier because then you're only going to 145 00:07:11.920 --> 00:07:14.959 win by like a few points anyway, right, that's their 146 00:07:15.000 --> 00:07:17.399 whole goal in the in the brain trust of the 147 00:07:17.439 --> 00:07:19.839 Democratic Party Republican Party. That point is that I want 148 00:07:19.839 --> 00:07:21.560 to win by one. Right, That's how smart I am. 149 00:07:21.600 --> 00:07:22.480 I can win by one. 150 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:26.120 So if you do that much except run negative bads, 151 00:07:26.120 --> 00:07:30.879 you can see the guy which everybody prefers because it's easier. 152 00:07:32.399 --> 00:07:35.759 So I feel like we're in a really good political 153 00:07:35.800 --> 00:07:37.839 science laboratory right now. 154 00:07:37.879 --> 00:07:40.600 That will be interesting to see it unfold. 155 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:44.879 Well, when you say that everybody despises them, wrong, I 156 00:07:44.879 --> 00:07:49.959 think you've completely misjudged the electorate. Everybody loves Kamala Harris. 157 00:07:50.040 --> 00:07:51.879 This is what we've learned in the last week we're 158 00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:54.560 besotted by her. We had an opinion piece in my 159 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:58.199 paper today which began the antidote to Mega is feminist 160 00:07:58.319 --> 00:08:02.240 laughter right away, sort of coming up against the contant 161 00:08:02.399 --> 00:08:05.680 an oxy North make America. 162 00:08:05.680 --> 00:08:07.920 The joke, how many feminists to take the Screon light 163 00:08:07.959 --> 00:08:08.360 bulb right? 164 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:11.519 That's not funny, that's not funny. That's right. 165 00:08:11.600 --> 00:08:15.600 So her laughter, says the piece has become a national 166 00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:19.199 contagious laughter, has become a national symbol of collective healing, 167 00:08:19.439 --> 00:08:22.079 affirming the powers of joy to unite community across bitter 168 00:08:22.120 --> 00:08:24.360 divisions of culture and identity. So the fact that she 169 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:28.360 laughs and it's not put down as a Hillary cackle, 170 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:30.560 I guess, is going to be the thing that carriers 171 00:08:30.560 --> 00:08:33.840 her to mass affirmation. So I think you're misjudging that, 172 00:08:33.919 --> 00:08:35.639 just as you're misjudging the fact that a lot of 173 00:08:35.679 --> 00:08:38.039 people who are voting for Trump are doing so with 174 00:08:38.120 --> 00:08:43.320 complete admiration of his messiah like stature. I mean, in 175 00:08:43.360 --> 00:08:46.360 other words, yes, I think you're absolutely correct. I mean, 176 00:08:46.679 --> 00:08:48.320 one of the big things on Twitter this week is 177 00:08:48.360 --> 00:08:51.600 the strange things that jd Vance has been saying about 178 00:08:51.639 --> 00:08:53.840 women and cat ladies and single cat ladies and the 179 00:08:53.840 --> 00:08:56.039 rest of it, as if this is a demographic that's 180 00:08:56.039 --> 00:08:58.440 on the costpin. You know, he could just need a 181 00:08:58.440 --> 00:09:00.440 little nudge to shove him over to vote Trump. But 182 00:09:00.480 --> 00:09:04.639 now he's done it. Now anyway, Stephen, Well. 183 00:09:05.159 --> 00:09:08.559 Look, it was nice having an honest and objective news 184 00:09:08.600 --> 00:09:10.240 media for at least a month. I think we can 185 00:09:10.279 --> 00:09:13.519 file it away for the future. Right now they're back 186 00:09:13.519 --> 00:09:16.440 to their old mode. Look, I do think also I 187 00:09:16.480 --> 00:09:19.960 was going to say this about people despising Trump. Certainly 188 00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:22.399 the Democratic base in the media do. But you know, 189 00:09:22.519 --> 00:09:25.600 his approval ratings have actually been rising a bit ever 190 00:09:25.679 --> 00:09:27.399 since the shooting. And I think for the same Reagan 191 00:09:28.519 --> 00:09:31.240 reason that Reagan's did in nineteen eighty one. The knock 192 00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:33.879 on Reagan was he's a Hollywood cut out, He's not 193 00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:36.639 really a real person, he's a creature's staff. And his 194 00:09:36.759 --> 00:09:39.840 response to that dispelled all that. And likewise, with Trump, 195 00:09:39.840 --> 00:09:41.279 I think a lot of people who may not like 196 00:09:41.360 --> 00:09:45.039 him still, but they don't they no longer think that 197 00:09:45.080 --> 00:09:47.480 he's also a fraud of some kind. I mean, he showed, 198 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:49.399 you know, as we saw that day, we saw the 199 00:09:49.399 --> 00:09:52.279 real Trump emerged, I think, and more people respect that 200 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:55.519 and That's why I think you still give him the advantage. 201 00:09:56.399 --> 00:09:58.399 I would say, probably give him the advantage. 202 00:09:58.399 --> 00:10:01.279 But I mean, I just I think all the Trump 203 00:10:01.320 --> 00:10:04.120 supporters and the Kammala supporters have the same kind of 204 00:10:04.120 --> 00:10:07.440 delusional quality that when they're surrounded by people who love 205 00:10:07.480 --> 00:10:09.840 the guy or love their guy, they just think that's everybody, 206 00:10:09.919 --> 00:10:13.519 We're going to win, and they just forget that these 207 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:19.799 are polarizing politicians who have very very very poor, clumsy 208 00:10:19.879 --> 00:10:24.399 maladuat ways of appealing to the center, and they turn 209 00:10:24.519 --> 00:10:27.960 people away, they turn the Democrats and the Republicans, and 210 00:10:28.320 --> 00:10:30.200 it's a hard thing because you wake up and it's 211 00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:32.559 down now, it's going to be August through September. You're 212 00:10:32.600 --> 00:10:34.799 running in general, and you wake up and you're like, okay, 213 00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:37.080 well now I got to get those people back. And 214 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:40.679 the goal of the opposing campaign is to point out 215 00:10:40.679 --> 00:10:45.320 that you are an extremist and a weirdo, and often 216 00:10:45.360 --> 00:10:48.639 that's unfair. But in this case, I think both of 217 00:10:48.679 --> 00:10:51.200 these campaigns have a very good point. They've got a 218 00:10:51.200 --> 00:10:55.080 lot they can talk about, and I just, you know, 219 00:10:56.399 --> 00:10:58.919 running for the presidency is not running for them to 220 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:02.720 be the you know, the lead on a Fox News 221 00:11:02.759 --> 00:11:05.159 show or the lead on the view well. 222 00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:07.279 People to vote. 223 00:11:07.559 --> 00:11:09.480 But I think this is I don't want to say 224 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:11.759 bubble dog, but maybe the people who look at this 225 00:11:11.840 --> 00:11:13.720 a lot and think about it a lot think this way. 226 00:11:13.720 --> 00:11:16.440 I think the average Trump and the average Harris voter 227 00:11:16.600 --> 00:11:19.639 do not think that everybody is absolutely raw run thinks 228 00:11:19.639 --> 00:11:23.039 that person is great. They're probably where most most Trump 229 00:11:23.159 --> 00:11:26.600 voters know that half the country doesn't like them, and 230 00:11:26.840 --> 00:11:32.240 most of the Harris voters know likewise. I think, you know, 231 00:11:32.399 --> 00:11:37.000 the absolutely gung ho people guess may be subject to illusion, 232 00:11:37.039 --> 00:11:40.320 but so it ever is I mean, well. 233 00:11:40.200 --> 00:11:42.200 I mean the good news for the good news for 234 00:11:42.200 --> 00:11:45.120 the people for the Trump side, I mean the sunniest 235 00:11:45.879 --> 00:11:49.399 perspective on the Trump side is that they actively they 236 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:54.679 realized that the abortion issue was a killer and a 237 00:11:54.799 --> 00:11:57.879 killer for the Republicans, especially in those swing states, and 238 00:11:57.960 --> 00:12:00.840 so they in the platform they try, I can neuter it. 239 00:12:00.919 --> 00:12:03.279 And so the Democrats are now trying to resurrect it 240 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:05.799 and make it still an issue, and it kind of 241 00:12:05.840 --> 00:12:07.440 isn't is because at the top of the ticket, there's 242 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:10.000 some there's some there's some daylight between the two of 243 00:12:10.039 --> 00:12:12.399 these guys. So that that is that I'm just talking 244 00:12:12.399 --> 00:12:15.000 about pure politics, right. That was actually kind of smart 245 00:12:15.080 --> 00:12:17.399 on the Republican side to come up with it to 246 00:12:17.399 --> 00:12:20.519 try to tame their weirdness a little bit. And then 247 00:12:20.519 --> 00:12:22.360 on the Democrats is up to them to attain their 248 00:12:22.360 --> 00:12:24.879 weird It can be harder because their weirdness is basically 249 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:28.000 the city of San Francisco and which you could never 250 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:30.039 put or the state of California, which you can't point 251 00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:31.240 to really for any reason. 252 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:34.120 You know. 253 00:12:34.200 --> 00:12:38.679 So there, but but I again, I think the problem 254 00:12:38.720 --> 00:12:41.000 with both these parties is the same, which is that 255 00:12:41.000 --> 00:12:43.519 they they love show business so much that they think 256 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:45.879 they're in show business. So they think that having a 257 00:12:45.919 --> 00:12:48.639 really popular being a really popular Fox News talk show 258 00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:51.480 host or being you know, getting clappier on the view 259 00:12:51.720 --> 00:12:53.279 is going to be as a sign of some kind 260 00:12:53.279 --> 00:12:57.679 of political momentum, which it's not. You need seventy million 261 00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:01.840 people to lose the presidency. The other guy's gonna get 262 00:13:01.879 --> 00:13:05.039 seventy five or eighty, right, So that's a lot of people, 263 00:13:05.080 --> 00:13:07.519 and those people aren't watching cable news. 264 00:13:07.759 --> 00:13:10.120 They are normal and they are sort of in the center. 265 00:13:10.759 --> 00:13:14.200 Well, okay, but it's gotta hard if you do the 266 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:17.639 last two election cycles in twenty sixteen, the double haters, 267 00:13:17.639 --> 00:13:19.799 the people who didn't like Hillary or Trump, they broke 268 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:22.159 for Trump by you know, five to three or even 269 00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:24.600 two to one. In twenty twenty, just the reverse, the 270 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:27.360 double haters maybe didn't hate Biden as much as they 271 00:13:27.360 --> 00:13:30.240 should have, but went the other way. They retired to 272 00:13:30.240 --> 00:13:32.200 Trump and the chaos and all the rest, and Trump 273 00:13:32.279 --> 00:13:35.000 still almost won. So now it's where those double haters 274 00:13:35.000 --> 00:13:36.639 are going to go. I think you're right, Robin. A 275 00:13:36.679 --> 00:13:38.879 lot of those double haters are not cable news and 276 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:41.639 view watchers. But I do think you are seeing not 277 00:13:41.720 --> 00:13:43.759 only is Cambella trying to move to the center, but 278 00:13:43.799 --> 00:13:46.840 the Democratic Party is trying to help her out. Two 279 00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:49.240 things in the last couple of days. One is Gavin 280 00:13:49.320 --> 00:13:51.480 Newsome yesterday. 281 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:52.000 Issuing on the border. 282 00:13:53.519 --> 00:13:54.399 Camps stunning. 283 00:13:54.519 --> 00:13:57.320 Okay, wait, can we just can you just explain that 284 00:13:57.360 --> 00:14:00.080 to me because I was reading it today and I thought, well. 285 00:14:00.120 --> 00:14:02.759 What, yeah, Well, I think it's two things. 286 00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:05.159 One is, you know, new some to his credit, did 287 00:14:05.240 --> 00:14:08.000 call for the Supreme Court to reverse the old Boise 288 00:14:08.159 --> 00:14:11.240 case that prevented governments from and so that was what 289 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:14.000 was done by a Supreme Court. Now Newsom kept silent 290 00:14:14.039 --> 00:14:16.120 and by praising them, but he's now acting on the 291 00:14:16.159 --> 00:14:18.799 new legal regime that they're allowed. I think that means 292 00:14:18.840 --> 00:14:21.039 that he's a trying to help Kamala Harris in the 293 00:14:21.080 --> 00:14:23.919 meantime by saying, see, we can fix California or b 294 00:14:24.240 --> 00:14:26.080 he thinks he's going to be the candidate in twenty 295 00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:28.360 twenty eight and he needs to help fix California or 296 00:14:28.399 --> 00:14:30.879 he's doomed. But another little one that probably got by 297 00:14:30.919 --> 00:14:34.120 most people is Shared Brown in Ohio, the incumbent liberal 298 00:14:34.159 --> 00:14:38.159 Democrat is in great trouble there, tough race. He came 299 00:14:38.200 --> 00:14:40.519 out a couple of days ago saying he would vote 300 00:14:40.600 --> 00:14:44.720 against the Biden Administration's climate plan because it would hurt 301 00:14:44.799 --> 00:14:47.879 Ohio energy workers and manufacturing people. That's the sign of 302 00:14:47.919 --> 00:14:50.120 a Democrat in trouble, trying to run away from the 303 00:14:50.120 --> 00:14:52.879 progressive agenda, which they always do in election years. But 304 00:14:52.919 --> 00:14:55.679 I thought, ah, they're trying to neutralize some of their 305 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:56.919 progressive baggage. 306 00:14:58.559 --> 00:14:59.720 Well, we'll get to that in a second. 307 00:14:59.799 --> 00:15:03.240 By what we should do right now is be grateful 308 00:15:03.360 --> 00:15:05.519 that we have a fascinating person to talk to. 309 00:15:05.720 --> 00:15:09.600 Rui Tu Sierra. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. I'm 310 00:15:09.759 --> 00:15:11.399 you know, from North Dakota to what Do I Know? 311 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.519 Roy is the Senior Fellow of the American Enterprise institutionary 312 00:15:14.559 --> 00:15:17.480 focuses on the transformation of party coalitions and the future 313 00:15:17.480 --> 00:15:21.000 of American electoral politics. Co founder and politics editor the 314 00:15:21.000 --> 00:15:23.200 Substack newsletter The Liberal Patriot. 315 00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:27.360 Welcome right sar having me interesting times? 316 00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:32.000 Know that they are Chinese. Curse all that. Well, let's 317 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:34.679 go back to two thousand and two, which seems like 318 00:15:34.879 --> 00:15:39.919 another era, another civilization. You co authored The Emerging Democratic Majority. Now, 319 00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:42.120 last year you and John Judas teamed up again. You 320 00:15:42.159 --> 00:15:45.120 published Where have all the Democrats Gone? The Soul of 321 00:15:45.159 --> 00:15:48.840 the Party in the Age of the Extremes? So what 322 00:15:48.879 --> 00:15:52.879 were you noticing in the early aughts and why did 323 00:15:52.879 --> 00:15:56.840 the demographic trends do what they did over the past decade. 324 00:15:58.240 --> 00:16:01.639 Well, in the early book, the two thousand and two book, 325 00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:04.320 The Emerging Democratic Majority, we're looking at the ways in 326 00:16:04.360 --> 00:16:08.200 which the sort of underlying terrain of American politics was 327 00:16:08.320 --> 00:16:11.279 changing in ways that seemed to favor the Democrats in 328 00:16:11.360 --> 00:16:15.879 terms of demographic shifts toward non wide voters, the rising 329 00:16:16.759 --> 00:16:20.600 importance of professionals and their realignment toward the Democrats. Shifts 330 00:16:20.600 --> 00:16:24.360 among women voters, shifts in the more dynamic metropolitan areas 331 00:16:24.360 --> 00:16:27.559 of the country, the fact that Republicans seem to be 332 00:16:27.639 --> 00:16:32.000 at a step with sort of increasingly liberal social attitudes 333 00:16:33.200 --> 00:16:37.720 and were doubling down in a sort of uncomplicated Reganism 334 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:42.120 or almost libertarian approach to economics that really wasn't consistent 335 00:16:42.120 --> 00:16:43.720 with where a lot of these voters were coming from. 336 00:16:43.720 --> 00:16:45.519 We thought that would give them a bit of an advantage. 337 00:16:45.799 --> 00:16:49.039 Then we described what might be their emerging philosophy as 338 00:16:49.120 --> 00:16:53.919 progressive centrism, which could take advantage of these changes and 339 00:16:54.000 --> 00:16:59.559 make them an attractive package to the shifting availability of voters. 340 00:17:00.759 --> 00:17:02.799 But we also had a caveat in the book which 341 00:17:02.840 --> 00:17:06.839 is widely ignored, about how you still needed to maintain 342 00:17:06.960 --> 00:17:10.880 a very significant share of white working class voters because 343 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:13.839 they were still a huge sector of the electorate, particularly 344 00:17:13.880 --> 00:17:17.680 in some very important states, and even though their relative 345 00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:20.759 weight in the electorate was declining, you still needed to 346 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:24.400 maintain a strong minority and not lose too much ground 347 00:17:25.039 --> 00:17:28.359 among these voters. So that was widely ignored and sort 348 00:17:28.400 --> 00:17:31.519 of the triumphalism of say, the Obama victory in two 349 00:17:31.519 --> 00:17:34.599 thousand and eight, and essentially what our book is about 350 00:17:34.599 --> 00:17:37.279 the new book is about whereof all the Democrats Gone, 351 00:17:37.400 --> 00:17:41.200 is tracing the ways in which Democrats have kind of 352 00:17:41.319 --> 00:17:45.559 blown in a sense, their opportunity because they're losing so 353 00:17:45.640 --> 00:17:48.799 many working class voters, not only white working class voters, 354 00:17:48.839 --> 00:17:51.519 but now non white working class voters, and they've just 355 00:17:51.559 --> 00:17:54.920 become a party this much more dominated by the views 356 00:17:54.920 --> 00:17:59.319 and culture and priorities of relatively liberal, college educated voters, 357 00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:01.960 and that makes some less attractive to working class voters 358 00:18:02.000 --> 00:18:05.599 who aren't as enthusiastic about how the country has evolved 359 00:18:05.640 --> 00:18:08.759 in their fate in life as some of these Democratic 360 00:18:08.799 --> 00:18:09.599 supporters are. 361 00:18:09.680 --> 00:18:11.240 So that's a. 362 00:18:11.480 --> 00:18:15.920 Very broad brush where we're at today, where the Republicans 363 00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:19.960 are increasingly a working class party and the Democrats increasingly less. 364 00:18:20.000 --> 00:18:23.400 So, hey, really, thanks for joining us. 365 00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:27.960 In my career in TV, we used to say that 366 00:18:28.119 --> 00:18:31.319 the only way to become a number four network is 367 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:33.160 you first have to be a number one network. 368 00:18:33.599 --> 00:18:34.880 That's how you go. You go from number one and 369 00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:35.640 number four. You don't go. 370 00:18:35.680 --> 00:18:38.480 You don't slip down the ladder because you just suddenly 371 00:18:38.519 --> 00:18:41.400 you wake up one day and you've lost. And so 372 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:43.279 I did you mention Obama? Because I think it's fascinating. 373 00:18:43.279 --> 00:18:46.319 A two thousand and eight smashing popular vote victory fifty 374 00:18:46.319 --> 00:18:51.799 three plus percent, and then in twenty twelve he lost 375 00:18:51.839 --> 00:18:54.359 a lot of votes. But you know, you start, you know, 376 00:18:54.559 --> 00:18:57.400 it's like you start with twenty billion dollars and you 377 00:18:57.440 --> 00:18:59.799 lose five billion dollars, you still got fifteen you know, 378 00:19:00.079 --> 00:19:02.920 you don't notice. It did seem like there was some 379 00:19:03.039 --> 00:19:07.160 leakage there in twenty twelve that in twenty sixteen became fatal. 380 00:19:08.279 --> 00:19:11.160 Still pretty tight, and we were just talking before you 381 00:19:11.160 --> 00:19:13.000 got here, Steve and I were talking about like twenty 382 00:19:13.119 --> 00:19:15.039 six twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, still pretty tight. 383 00:19:15.039 --> 00:19:18.119 Elections ten it was seventy eight thousand. 384 00:19:19.000 --> 00:19:22.039 Another type one this time. I wouldn't be surprised. 385 00:19:23.079 --> 00:19:26.559 But you're also that also matches something else happening in 386 00:19:26.599 --> 00:19:30.880 the country, which is an incredible volatility. I mean, I believe, 387 00:19:31.160 --> 00:19:34.559 fifty nine years old, most of my life there was 388 00:19:34.559 --> 00:19:37.000 one speaker of the House, tip On, you know, and 389 00:19:37.039 --> 00:19:39.480 there was one party that ran the House, and that 390 00:19:39.519 --> 00:19:43.880 was the Democrats. And since then, yeah, that's ninety four, right, 391 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:47.480 it's been Yeah, Nancy, Nancy Pelosi has been speaking of 392 00:19:47.480 --> 00:19:51.440 the House twice, like that's crazy, you know, goes back 393 00:19:51.440 --> 00:19:54.000 and forth, and we talk about on election night and 394 00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:56.079 even in the in the midterm elections, we talked about 395 00:19:56.119 --> 00:19:57.640 the control of the House and the Senate the way 396 00:19:57.680 --> 00:20:01.119 we never used to do that. We entering because of 397 00:20:01.160 --> 00:20:04.960 these demographic ships. Is just a period or are we 398 00:20:05.039 --> 00:20:06.720 in it or are we coming out of it? Or 399 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:08.880 is it just about to get a lot more interesting 400 00:20:09.119 --> 00:20:11.839 of just political volatility that we haven't seen in this 401 00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.759