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Speaker 1: Was good. Everybody, welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.

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If you are new. We always start this show by

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being transparent. There was no show yesterday, but I guess

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we could have talked a little bit of something. It

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was nice to watch the games and have a break though,

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I'll tell you that. But we always start this show transparency.

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So I think since we've had a show, I've only

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been baseball, Robno and a nine and three start to

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the MLB playoffs for myself, so I am happy with that.

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Oh no, I have to recap that the last day

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we talked WNBA right and I lost. I was so

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pissed off, Robno, Oh my god, covering for the entire

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game fever plus eight and a half. I'm I'm hoping

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that the game ends in regulation because I know overtime

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where dogs go to die. It goes to overtime, and

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sure enough Aces can miss and we still had the chance.

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Obdysely Sims, I know she is the reason, you know,

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while we were even in the game, but blows the

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layup down with five seconds left down seven just files

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kills the cover in overtime. I was so hot about that.

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But WNBA has been still good. One ten out of

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thirteen in the WNBA playoffs after that bad one, Solvino,

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Good to be back with you here today. We have

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a lot to talk about. But how's everything been with you?

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Speaker 2: Good? Good good. I did not play that game. It's

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ironic the way that end of cheeks. I remember when

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we talked that day, you were. Part of your thoughts

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were Indiana's not going to stop fouling no matter what.

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And they had done that the game before, down the

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bunch just keep and sure enough there she got really

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no reason to file, but they did that. That's a

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tough uh, That's a tough one to lose because Indiana

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was there the whole way. And I don't know, you know,

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this is just my thinkings. Are out there all celebrating.

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I get it they want a series, but man, they're

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supposed to win that series easy, in like three games.

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It's not supposed to go overtime in the fifth game

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without Kelsey Mitchell on the floor, without a Leah Boston

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on the floor. That's crazy. But I didn't play. I

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did get involved in baseball though, like you, the playoffs

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the last couple of days four and one. Over the

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course of the last two I lost a five, five

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inning play with Detroit on Tuesday and then came back

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with the four oh yesterday's It was very nice. Baseball

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was kind to me. I say, we'll see what we

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can do today.

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Speaker 1: Yep. We'll get into a shout out to the people

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in the chat. Got Jay Cash and Prolific down there.

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A couple of new members as well, Mark H. Sherry

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and Nolan, so appreciate all of you. They had an

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NBA final, I mean w NBA Finals. We'll get a

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chance to talk about it tomorrow, but it will be

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an interesting one. Aces versus Mercury. Think if you ask

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majority of people and beginning of the season, those would

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not be the two that you circled in for the

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WNBA finals. So it doesn't mean it won't be a good,

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good series, a good matchup. I think it absolutely will.

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It's just a little bit surprising for most. All Right,

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Casey says, I'm here too. Don't forget about me. Appreciate

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you to Casey one thousand percent. All right, let's get

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to some actionable info. We're gonna go in rotation order

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like we usually do. That means Thursday night football is

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up first here, Rob, you know, San Fran heading into

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La to take on the Rams, opening up minus three,

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as high as minus nine. Now, I mean, damn veno

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six six point move on this game. Total open forty

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seven and it's down. I mean, every time I look,

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this one keeps going down too. I feel like I

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just checked it an hour ago and it was forty five.

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Now I'm looking, I see forty three and a halfs

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popping up. So continues to drop there. And I know,

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injury wise, you know, it does make a little bit

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of sense, or it makes a lot of sense. You

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don't have Purty, you don't have Pershaw, you don't have

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Juwan Jennings. You know, you don't have Kiddo. You go

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on and on. You're missing a lot of offense for

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this forty nine Ers team. So I can understand why

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the big line move. But what I will say is,

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and the Rams have looked good before I say what

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I'm gonna say, the Rams have looked great. You know,

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I think that they are more than capable of winning

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this game. But divisional game, short, short week, divisional game.

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I know this game means a lot to San France. Still,

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even though they're banged up, they have a good record

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their season is not lost. You're gonna get effort from them.

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The one thing I h I'm a double check here,

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if you know why, I pass it to you, But

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I think this is the third game in four weeks

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on the road for San Fran. But yeah, at this point,

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when a number of moves six points, it's only one

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way you could bet it. It's San Fran or nothing

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and the total. I really wouldn't want the ascent of

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the under either. So I'm curious your thoughts while I

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look up some of this information.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a full game. It's hard ski at

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this point in time. Right, you're asking LA to win

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by ten, not that they can't, not that we can't

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see twenty three, thirteen, twenty seven to seventeen, something like that,

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but it's very very difficult against you know, if you're

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San Francisco. What's been good all season long? Let's face it,

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they've been hindered by injuries on the offensive side all year.

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Ever since the Seattle game to start the season, they

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went in a little bit shorthanded. They lost George Kittle

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during that game. I think they lost Juwar Jennings during

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that game, and for most of this season they've either

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been taking the field with a backup quarterback and Christian

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McCaffery and maybe one receiver. Here it's Mac Jones, Christian

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McCaffrey and no receivers. So offensively it's gonna be difficult.

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But their defense is held up throughout each and every

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game that they've played so far. I mean, the forty

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nine ers d has not given up more than twenty

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one points in any game. You can say that none

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of the four offenses that they faced are anywhere near

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as potent as the La Rams are. That would be true,

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and Seattle's a pretty good offense at this point in time,

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but they're not the Rams. New Orleans, Arizona, Jacksonville, none

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of those are the Rams. But you still have to

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credit the forty nine defense. The question for me, Ski,

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and as you said, it would be the third road

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game already in four and a half weeks for this team,

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the question is how long can the defense hold up.

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You're gonna have Mac Jones tonight under severe heat. Obviously,

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the Rams are gonna like they did to the Eagles,

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right they shut down Sakuon Barkley and said hi, and

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the first half Philadelphia could do nothing but Philadelphia came

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back and through the football in the second half, and

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at a comeback, they're gonna do that to McCaffrey, tell

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mac Jones. With no receivers, can you beat us? And

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it's not like having Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown. They

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don't have the answers on that side of the ball.

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So I get the line movement. But again, like I say,

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the forty nine or defense has been good enough to

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hold people to twenty one or less. If they could

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do that here, nine is a tough ask. You could

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shorten it up if you rather lay cheaper price. You

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could try Rams first quarter, Rams first half, something where

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you know, can the Rams be ahead ten to three

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at halftime and cover a first half? Absolutely they could,

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So if I was gonna play the Rams, I would

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probably look for a way to shorten it up in total. Wise,

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I don't know, maybe forty nine er team total under,

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just hoping that they don't get any type of defense

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or special teams touchdown, because I think at this point

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it's hard to think that the forty nine are going

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to make it over seventeen and a half points. I mean,

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it's seventeen would seem to be the ceiling to me

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for that team against this defense. So maybe a little

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San Francisco team total under and maybe if you like

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the LA side and try to shorten it up a

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little bit.

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Speaker 1: Well, first, I was mistaken. I think I was mixing

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up San France schedule with maybe the Redskins or somebody else,

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so it's not third and three to four games on

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the road. But to what you were saying there, do

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you see when these teams play, it's not really fireworks

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from the Rams? Like the Rams haven't their team total tonight?

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What is it twenty twenty seven and a half? Like

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they haven't hit that in the past five years. Versus

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team it's the forty nine ers offense more that we're

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worried about than the defense. So I don't know why

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we would like if you like the forty nine ers

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team total under, why would you want to not at

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the Rams too? I mean, I don't know, maybe the

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full game under. Maybe the line is moving in that

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direction for a reason. That's kind of how I'm thinking there.

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Speaker 2: Well, And based on the history that we have of

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Thursday night games, Ski, your first inclination all the time

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is to play a Thursday night game under, right, the

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players complain about having to play these games. They're always

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a little rough around the edges. Like you said, this

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is divisional, so you expect more intensity. And for the

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forty nine ers, they know basically, they know we have

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to win this game led by the defense. So all

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those reasons would direct you to a game staying underneath

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forty three or forty three and a half points. So

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I couldn't argue that at all. I find it difficult

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to see where their points are going to come from.

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Rams having to get the twenty seven is a tough

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sell to. They barely got. I had them last week,

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as a matter of fact, against the Colts. I had

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their team total this same exact area twenty six and

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a half with Viig towards the over, and they barely

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got there. They got the twenty seven, but they got

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it done. Can they do so on a short walk

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week here I get to the divisional rival, we'll see.

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I will say this too real quick. Something that's going

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untalked about a little bit is since Robert Salah came back,

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you know, fired by the Jets, back to the forty

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nine ers as the defensive coordinator, they've been a really,

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really good defense again like they were a couple of

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years ago. So as much as I talked about their

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defense throughout this analysis, I think that's just another ingredient

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reason to like what San Francisco's doing.

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Speaker 1: On d Jake Cass says, everybody on the under, I

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know what that means.

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Speaker 2: Jay, We've seen this one before.

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Speaker 1: You know. The more I think about this game, if

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you like the Rams, the only way I can bet

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them is to tease them the way like Mark did

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and put them with somebody after this numbers ballooned. But

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in saying that, like said, the forty nine is gonna

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play hard. Season is not lost. We've seen mac Jones

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already once this year and he looked good. This Ram

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secondary not the greatest. You do have. One of the

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receivers used to play for the Rams. I think his

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name is Robinson. Maybe he'll come out there and try

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to have a good game versus old team. I did

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see his receptions were pretty low, like two and a half.

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I mean, who did they have to throw the ball to.

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It's just him and uh, it's one other guy that

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slipping my name right now, slip in my mind right now, Robinson,

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And who's the other guy? But anyway, born is it

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born Robinson and born, So I mean, you gotta throw

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the ball to somebody. Two and a half receptions for

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Robinson seems like kind of a good deal there, So

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either Robinson receptance at this current number, I can only

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take the forty nine ers plus. I mean, you could

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tease the Rams. It's hard for me to think that

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the forty nine ers winning this game. That's why I

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can't talk against he's in the Rams. I think the

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Rams teaser and forty nine ers could cover any last

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thoughts on this one.

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Speaker 2: Raveno, Yeah, real quick, since we've said we're pointed out

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two or three times if it's a divisional game. Just

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for context, the forty nine Ers are already two and

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oh against NFC West competitions, they're two and oh in

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the division, and it's the rams very first game inside

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the division. So certainly the Rams don't want the forty

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nine ers to be three and oh and aboh and one,

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So I would expect a full effort from the Rams. Again,

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the number is always the big equalizer. And do we

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feel comfortable laying eight and a half. I'm not so sure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, I think we did a good enough

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job breaking down that Thursday night football game. It's a

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lot of different ways you can look at playing it.

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Now let's move on over to sam Houston State and

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New Mexico State. And not a whole lot of analysis

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for me, but open minus one and a half for

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sam Houston State either one and a half for two

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total opened fifty two and a half. I see fifty

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three and a half. And this is I mean Sam

242
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Houston State. I mean, obviously they're gonna look bad for Texas.

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They look they look terrible. But sam Houston State hasn't

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won a game yet, right, and now they're a favorite.

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That's the first thing that stands out to me. New

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Mexico is sitting at two and two but on the road,

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winless and a favorite. Got to be favorite for a

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reason here, Rob, you know, what do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that the reason for them being a

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favorite early in the week and it was higher up

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until like overnight or this morning. Early. New Mexico State

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had a pretty good amount of injuries on their injury report.

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Some of those are definitely out, some of those are

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in for this game. And what's good for New Mexico

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State as far as being in as concerned as they'll

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have a full complement of wide receivers. And New Mexico

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State is all pass, can't run, gonna throw the football.

258
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Because they cannot run the football. They might be last

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in the NCAA. I think they averaged like fifty some

260
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odd yards per game rushing the football. Can't do it,

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so they turned to throwing it. Tony Sanchez, the ex

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00:14:26,399 --> 00:14:29,399
head coach at UNLV, is their head coach. For those

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who don't know, David Yost, he was the OC when

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Jordan Love was at Utah State. He's the OC here.

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So they're gonna throw and sam Houston State is one

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of the worst pass defenses in the nation. They ranked

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like one thirty one out of one thirty four. So

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you can see New Mexico State moving the ball through

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the air in this one. They played New Mexico last

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week actually as an underdog. Leted halftime, second half turnovers

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and what not cost them the game. New Mexico beat them.

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They have own to be a little bit better defensively

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than Sam Houston. Again, we're splitting hairs here because neither

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one of these teams is good. Let me just preface

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it by saying that neither one is good. But I

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think if you're looking for the lesser of two evils here,

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it might be New Mexico State because on the Sam

278
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Houston State side, not only don't they match up their

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defensive weakness against New Mexico State's offensive strength, but it's

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a team that was kind of left in limbo when

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the head coach, Casey Keeler left for Temple, he took

282
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his coaching staff, he took his players, and Phil Longo,

283
00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:37,440
long time offensive coordinator. Head coach Phil Longo moved in

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to become the head coach. Installs an air raid and

285
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they weren't an air raid team. So you've got personnel

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here that doesn't match the system, and that's why it's

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been so sporadic for Sam Houston offensively. I don't know

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that they get it right ski. I think one of

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the big equalizers here, and maybe why a lot of

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people played Sam Houston is because Sam Houston is in

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off a bye week, so they've had two weeks to

292
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get ready, while the other team is in off of

293
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,639
just four days worth of rest. A lot of times

294
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people will play that automatically the rested team. I don't

295
00:16:11,559 --> 00:16:14,759
know if I could agree with it, probably the dog

296
00:16:14,919 --> 00:16:18,639
side for me, the home dog, just because I'm so

297
00:16:18,759 --> 00:16:21,679
much more of a fundamental matchup guy. I seem it

298
00:16:21,759 --> 00:16:24,440
seems to me it'll that Sam Houston will be hard

299
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,559
pressed to stop in New Mexico State from scoring here

300
00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,639
in New Mexico State. For what it's worth, if you consider,

301
00:16:29,759 --> 00:16:32,919
and I know everybody grades these things differently, explosive plays,

302
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,639
some say twenty plus yards, some say thirty plus yards.

303
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:40,120
But New Mexico State had like six explosive plays pass

304
00:16:40,159 --> 00:16:42,639
plays over twenty yards last week against New Mexico, a

305
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,840
much better team. So I think you'll get offense side

306
00:16:45,879 --> 00:16:47,720
of that side. What we get out of Sam Houston,

307
00:16:47,759 --> 00:16:48,519
I'm just not sure.

308
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,879
Speaker 1: Interesting interesting, interesting, So you don't think they should be

309
00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:58,679
I don't don't think they should be favored now.

310
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 2: I think their favorite because of the scheduling spot and

311
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,319
because the New Mexico State injury list was what it

312
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,039
was early in the week, and.

313
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,160
Speaker 1: That makes sense. I mean, I can understand that. So

314
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,359
I was looking up queries some stuff does support Sam

315
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,559
Houston side, but I can understand what Roveno was saying,

316
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:18,519
and from what I saw from Sam Houston State, they

317
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:20,960
look terrible so it's hard to go put your money

318
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:27,279
down on them anyway. This query does say over though

319
00:17:27,519 --> 00:17:30,519
as well, So pretty much what I'm looking at is

320
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:37,680
just winless road favorites, winless short, rod favorites short meaning

321
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:42,680
two or less first an opponent who has won a game.

322
00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:46,920
They are thirteen and five straight up, six and two

323
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,039
to the over. That says Sam, Houston, State and over.

324
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,240
But again just trends and numbers. Every situation is a

325
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,680
little bit different. Rob thinks that they're just favorite because

326
00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:01,720
injuries and scheduled situations. So good stuff on this one.

327
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,480
I think we can move it on over to the

328
00:18:05,599 --> 00:18:10,000
diamond a little bit here, and that means first game

329
00:18:10,079 --> 00:18:14,119
up is going to be nine nine nine ten. Let

330
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:15,680
me make sure I get that up here on the

331
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:21,480
screen as well, nine nine ten Detroit and Cleveland for

332
00:18:21,559 --> 00:18:29,119
Game three Clarity versus secone. This total didn't move. We

333
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:34,119
get a seven here, all right. So, I mean, if

334
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,599
you watch the show that I did what was it

335
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,720
two days ago, you guys know that I did not

336
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,319
bet the entirety of the season. I do bet the

337
00:18:43,319 --> 00:18:47,640
playoffs religiously, and you know, just kind of picking up

338
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:49,880
and reading how some of these guys have been doing.

339
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:56,000
But from watching these playoff games, you know, I do

340
00:18:56,039 --> 00:18:59,079
think in these game threes, like in general, the thing

341
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,200
for all of them, like, I don't know how much

342
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,279
I want to trust these bullpens. Some you know, a

343
00:19:05,279 --> 00:19:09,279
little more untrustworthy than others. But I just think that

344
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,759
a lot of arms have been used and if I

345
00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:16,160
want to back, like, for example, if I think Flarity

346
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,519
is a stronger guy, I'm just gonna just gonna do

347
00:19:19,559 --> 00:19:24,279
a first five. So for me, that is how I

348
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:26,039
feel a little bit about this one. And these are

349
00:19:26,079 --> 00:19:28,359
just just thoughts or Leans that I need to research

350
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:32,000
a little more. I would want to back Flarity in

351
00:19:32,079 --> 00:19:36,799
this one. And probably and as as I'm saying is,

352
00:19:36,839 --> 00:19:39,400
these guys are going to have short leashes too, So

353
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,079
I don't know. In this game. I was trying to

354
00:19:42,079 --> 00:19:45,240
get there with an under or maybe Detroit first five.

355
00:19:45,839 --> 00:19:47,880
But we don't have the wind blowing in like we

356
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:55,200
did yesterday, and I'm just a little hesitant. Two teams

357
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,240
that don't really hit very well. But Cleveland kind of

358
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,480
exploded with a little bit. They did have you yesterday.

359
00:20:01,839 --> 00:20:04,759
I'm head the team. Yesterday and the day before I

360
00:20:04,799 --> 00:20:06,839
felt a lot stronger Today. I got to talk it

361
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,960
out and think about it a little bit more. So

362
00:20:10,039 --> 00:20:11,680
I'm curious, you know, do you have an opinion on

363
00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:12,720
Tigers and Guardians.

364
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 2: Well, the one thing I'll say right off the bat is,

365
00:20:15,799 --> 00:20:18,279
in all three of these games, Ski just a general

366
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,640
thought on all three of these games being game three,

367
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,559
which is equivalent to game seven of a seven game series.

368
00:20:24,279 --> 00:20:26,720
Where pitching is concerned, it's all hands on deck, right.

369
00:20:26,759 --> 00:20:30,039
Obviously Detroit can't pitch Tarik Skooble. He just had fourteen

370
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,039
k's two days ago. But you get what I'm saying.

371
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,359
Everybody that's on that playoff roster, whether it be starters

372
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,799
that didn't get a start in this series or whatever,

373
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:44,160
everybody's on deck here. So pitching sometimes when you look

374
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,519
at the starting pitching matchup, can be a little bit

375
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,799
misleading because, like you say, there's short leashes and there's

376
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,279
plenty of arms to go around. Now to that point,

377
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,799
you did talk about the way these bullpens have been used.

378
00:20:55,839 --> 00:20:59,440
They've been close games, a lot of pitches pitchers used,

379
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,599
lot of pitch is thrown. Sometimes when you throw these

380
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,880
guys back to back, in some cases back to back

381
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,880
to back, you know they don't have it in that

382
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,240
third game or in that second of back to back games,

383
00:21:12,279 --> 00:21:16,319
depending on pitch counts. So to make under over cases

384
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,079
becomes kind of tough. What I would say is this

385
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:24,319
secone ex diamondback. Now Cleveland, Indian has been really good

386
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,920
against the Tigers this year. Two starts, both six innings, starts,

387
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,359
twelve innings, only eleven hits allowed in a two two

388
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,519
five era. It's a little better than what Jack Flaherty

389
00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,880
has done against the Indians this year. And in fact,

390
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,240
Jack Flarity had a couple of starts in September against

391
00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:43,079
this team, one pretty good five and a third only

392
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,119
one run allowed, the other one not as good four

393
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,759
and change and three earned runs allowed. But Flarity has

394
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:51,119
the playoff experience. Secone's never stepped down the hill to

395
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,240
pitch a you know, decisive game in a playoff series,

396
00:21:54,319 --> 00:21:57,319
so you have that going too. As far as the

397
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,400
hitting goes, the offense goes. In this series, we saw

398
00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:03,680
yesterday Detroit leave twelve men on base every inning. It

399
00:22:03,759 --> 00:22:07,160
seemed like Detroit that Cleveland in trouble but could not

400
00:22:07,319 --> 00:22:11,119
push a run across, and Cleveland had one inning. They've

401
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,279
had one inning in two games where they exploded so

402
00:22:14,279 --> 00:22:16,799
this one was very tough for me. I did not play.

403
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,279
I would kind of lean towards the home team just because,

404
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,680
but I don't say that with any confidence because to me,

405
00:22:25,799 --> 00:22:28,960
Detroit's been better at putting men on base, and eventually

406
00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:32,400
that pressure that Dan could break and Detroit could get

407
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,559
their runs today. So we'll see how it goes. But

408
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,319
I have no real feel for that game.

409
00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:44,039
Speaker 1: All right. In the chat, Jose likes the Guardians. Jose perritt,

410
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,000
I'm sorry, Jose Perez likes the Guardians. He also likes

411
00:22:47,039 --> 00:22:51,039
Flarity under eleven and a half outs. Mark likes that

412
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,519
Cleveland first five and he thinks Flarity's not going to

413
00:22:54,559 --> 00:22:56,720
make it very far Nurses under twelve and a half outs.

414
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,359
So guys looking at some different ways in the chat,

415
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,079
let's keep it going here and this one. I feel

416
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,960
like I'll have a little bit of a stronger opinion here.

417
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,920
But my screen is glitching. Now there we go. It's

418
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:17,319
gonna be Padres and Cubs, you Darvish and Tayan no

419
00:23:17,519 --> 00:23:23,920
movement on the total, you know, So without even I

420
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,880
mean I did look up stats just now, but without

421
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,440
even looking up stats, I know both of these guys, granted,

422
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,799
you know, pictures change every every year, every season, you know,

423
00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:40,160
But you Darvish, from what I know in general over

424
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:43,880
his career, he's a guy that at least over there

425
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,400
in the padres, you want to trust him at home

426
00:23:47,079 --> 00:23:50,319
on the road, you better have a damn good reason

427
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,640
to be pushing that button to back him over there.

428
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,039
I think it's era is. I did just look up

429
00:23:55,039 --> 00:23:58,160
its north to seven on the road. So this is

430
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,680
something that's not just this year. It has been multiple

431
00:24:00,799 --> 00:24:03,960
years of this with you, Darvish. On the flip side,

432
00:24:04,599 --> 00:24:08,119
Tayan has been better at home, but he's just and

433
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,519
you know, some people are probably gonna disagree. A lot

434
00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:17,039
of people like Taian but and again he maybe he's

435
00:24:17,079 --> 00:24:18,880
doing better this year than previous years, but he's a

436
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,359
guy that I know that throws very, very hard, but

437
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,079
he can get to the point where he starts losing control.

438
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,440
So what I'm saying in this one is, I don't

439
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,000
really trust either of these pictures today. I think that

440
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:35,960
first five over is very appealing in this game. And

441
00:24:36,039 --> 00:24:38,759
I'm just gonna glance at what number we have here.

442
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:44,000
First five, we're getting a four. I wish it could be.

443
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:45,599
I mean, obviously I wish it could be a three

444
00:24:45,599 --> 00:24:48,559
and a half. But I think either one, if not

445
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,559
both of these pictures can give it up here today.

446
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,960
The one thing I'll mention before I pass it to you.

447
00:24:55,759 --> 00:24:58,440
Oh no, I see here that the Padres I think

448
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,759
we're struggling versus lefties. The ti On is alariety. I mean,

449
00:25:01,799 --> 00:25:03,720
everything seems to me like there's gonna be runs in

450
00:25:03,799 --> 00:25:06,839
this game. RAVI, you know, any thoughts from you, I

451
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:07,680
totally agree.

452
00:25:07,759 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 2: Man for an extra reason. On top of that Ski

453
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,720
he talked about Darvish. I'm not a big fan of

454
00:25:13,839 --> 00:25:16,119
tie on, so right there, I would think some runs.

455
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,480
But as much as I said about all hands on

456
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:26,079
deck in these game threes, san Diego's burnt that bullpen.

457
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,720
Mason Miller came out yesterday and struck out seven in

458
00:25:28,759 --> 00:25:30,480
a row or eight in a row, whatever it was.

459
00:25:30,559 --> 00:25:33,400
But Mason Miller's pitched both games now forty pitches in

460
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,400
two games. You can't count on him coming back for

461
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,839
a third game. They had to pitch Suarez yesterday. I

462
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:41,880
guess in the ninth inning, if they're ahead, you could

463
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,519
throw him. But I guess my point is San Diego's

464
00:25:44,559 --> 00:25:48,839
options behind Darvish are limited in this game. If Darvish doesn't,

465
00:25:49,319 --> 00:25:51,799
you know, pitch well and they have to get into

466
00:25:51,839 --> 00:25:55,160
their pen early. The Cubs are definitely They're a team

467
00:25:55,279 --> 00:25:57,759
predicated on offense. They are a better offense than they

468
00:25:57,759 --> 00:25:59,880
are pitching team. If I flip it over to the

469
00:26:00,279 --> 00:26:02,599
their bullpen just hasn't been great all season long. I'm

470
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:07,559
not gonna put an investment in the hands of guys

471
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,599
like Drew Pomerantz, et cetera, et cetera coming out of

472
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,240
the pen. So I think San Diego's offense is in

473
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,759
pretty good shape here as well. And this number is

474
00:26:16,799 --> 00:26:18,799
only seven and a half. Now I check. You always

475
00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:21,079
have to check Wrigley whether you want to check the win.

476
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,279
You don't want the wind to be blowing in twenty miles.

477
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,519
Speaker 1: An hour yesterday. Blown in yes yesterday, it's not blown in.

478
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: It's a little different today. And so we get these

479
00:26:29,759 --> 00:26:32,440
power hitters on both sides that can maybe get a

480
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,759
couple out of there. I just think seven and a

481
00:26:34,799 --> 00:26:36,839
half was too low in this game. Ski. If there's

482
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,640
one game we're going to see runs, I would think

483
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:43,039
it would be this And so I'm in on the

484
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,240
San Diego over On a personal level, have not recommended

485
00:26:47,279 --> 00:26:49,079
it to clients yet, but I did play it over

486
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,359
seven and a half in that game, just because I thought,

487
00:26:51,559 --> 00:26:54,599
if Darvish doesn't make it out San Diego, there's no

488
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,880
Mason Miller to lean on today for three innings of

489
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:57,400
eight ks.

490
00:27:02,079 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: So you want to include the the bullpens. You think

491
00:27:06,279 --> 00:27:08,319
that seven half is worth it. It's interesting to me because,

492
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,960
I mean, you're getting a favorable number on the full game.

493
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:17,839
The first half is shady, right. It opened four and

494
00:27:17,839 --> 00:27:19,440
a half on the first half. It did come down

495
00:27:19,519 --> 00:27:21,640
to the four, but you know, compared to the seven

496
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,200
and a half full game. They're telling you they think

497
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,920
that the runs are coming early, but you're saying you

498
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:27,799
don't think they're gonna stop coming. I mean, this is

499
00:27:27,839 --> 00:27:29,599
one of those games. I'm gonna dig a little bit

500
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,920
deeper and I could have two players in this one.

501
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:36,720
But I do think it's run scored in this matchup.

502
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,720
I'm in the chat there. You have Mark, like in

503
00:27:39,839 --> 00:27:44,400
Chicago first five says SD may win with that bullpen.

504
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,920
Mario says, hey, Ski missed you at the Westcat on Monday.

505
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:50,599
You know, I've been out of town for a while,

506
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,920
but I did come back on Monday. I actually did

507
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,519
pull up to Westgate. What was being played?

508
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 2: It was?

509
00:27:56,039 --> 00:28:00,799
Speaker 1: Uh? Was that the day when it was? Or maybe

510
00:28:00,839 --> 00:28:03,599
I came back on Tuesday. No, I can't. I can't

511
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,839
remember anymore. I think I came back on Monday, though,

512
00:28:06,599 --> 00:28:12,359
But sorry, I couldn't see you. Mario I will. I'm

513
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,400
not sure if he's still in town, but yeah, sorry

514
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,799
I missed you on that day. Let's keep going here.

515
00:28:18,839 --> 00:28:21,880
One more game left for you know that looks like

516
00:28:22,559 --> 00:28:28,599
Red Sox and Yankees early and I don't know either

517
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,960
one of these guys really, Honestly, Lilier, I don't I

518
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,000
don't even know, so I'm not gonna waste anybody's time.

519
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,680
This is one where I don't really know the starters

520
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,079
too well. I don't trust either bullpen. If you tell

521
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,039
me these guys are blow ups, I mean, it's not

522
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,240
hard for me to you know. I'm trying to find

523
00:28:46,279 --> 00:28:48,079
reasons to back the under with the way I think

524
00:28:48,119 --> 00:28:51,039
of these two bullpens. That's what I'm saying. Any thoughts

525
00:28:51,079 --> 00:28:54,240
from you on Red Sox and Yankees, Yeah.

526
00:28:54,119 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: I think this is one where you're probably these guys

527
00:28:57,039 --> 00:29:00,839
are more app especially on the Boston side. I think

528
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,720
you're more apt to see kind of opener type usage.

529
00:29:04,799 --> 00:29:08,079
Boston is gonna try and piecemeal this thing together. They

530
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,640
did have to waste Garrett Whitlock yesterday in that game,

531
00:29:12,759 --> 00:29:14,640
so that's a shame for them because he's one of

532
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,640
their better bullpen arms. But I think in the case

533
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,759
of Boston, and let's face a Core as a pretty

534
00:29:21,799 --> 00:29:30,119
sharp manager, but I could see something like Boston going righty, lefty, righty, lefty, righty, lefty,

535
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,240
trying to make the Yankees adjust every couple of innings

536
00:29:33,319 --> 00:29:36,359
to what they're throwing out there at them. For the

537
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,279
Yanks in this case, they've got they've got the better starter.

538
00:29:40,359 --> 00:29:44,039
I mean, Shitler has been He's performed pretty good in

539
00:29:44,079 --> 00:29:47,480
a couple of instances this year. So but again, you

540
00:29:47,599 --> 00:29:50,400
always worry about the pressure of this game for guys

541
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,680
that have never been on the mound for anything like

542
00:29:52,799 --> 00:29:55,319
this Ski and he's never been on the hill for

543
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,359
a game in front of home fans that you know

544
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,400
are quick to boo the Yankee stadium. It's a lot

545
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,000
of pressure for a young guy. So to me, I

546
00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:07,599
thought maybe the price was a little bit too high here.

547
00:30:08,319 --> 00:30:11,559
Boston's getting an awful lot. You can take upwards of

548
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,279
a dollar forty with them, and what's kind of a

549
00:30:14,359 --> 00:30:18,200
coin flip pitching matchup. I will say this for Boston,

550
00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:23,240
you can go to a Radish Chapman again. He loaded

551
00:30:23,279 --> 00:30:25,240
the bases in Game one right with no outs in

552
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,200
the ninth and came back strikeout week flyout, strikeout. So

553
00:30:28,359 --> 00:30:32,160
you do have a nice closer built in here. I

554
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,119
didn't bet it, but if I was gonna bet it,

555
00:30:34,559 --> 00:30:36,960
I would probably try the underdog side here. I don't

556
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,759
think Boston's phased in any way, shape or form by venue.

557
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,160
And I will say that in games like this, a

558
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,799
lot of times, the team that can do the little

559
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,440
things offensively winds up winning because they can create a run.

560
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,599
The Yankees are kind of like home run or Bust,

561
00:30:53,319 --> 00:30:58,240
where Boston alex Cora. They'll work guys around the bases,

562
00:30:58,279 --> 00:31:00,839
they'll steal a base, they'll sacrifice, they'll hit a sack

563
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,720
fly or get an RBI ground out. I would rather

564
00:31:04,039 --> 00:31:08,480
be on that side here with Boston plus price. I

565
00:31:08,519 --> 00:31:10,440
wouldn't want to lay the big price with the Yankees.

566
00:31:12,599 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: All Right, there goes the MLB Playoffs. Good stuff for

567
00:31:18,559 --> 00:31:19,960
you know. I think we did a pretty good job here.

568
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,519
We've been on for a little bit over thirty one minutes,

569
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:27,240
talked about Thursday Night Football, talked about that college football game,

570
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:32,240
you talking about the three MLB playoff games. So now

571
00:31:33,119 --> 00:31:35,640
before we do move it over to well, I don't

572
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,359
really have anything to put up there Weekend Warrior. I

573
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,039
guess we just rock with that, right, rob You know,

574
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,240
I know you've been doing really well and football in general,

575
00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:51,000
My top plays are undefeated this year. So in football NFL,

576
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,039
if you want to rock with either one of us,

577
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,480
you know you can get every football play. We released Saturday,

578
00:31:55,519 --> 00:31:59,119
Sunday and Monday Night Football only forty nine dollars with

579
00:31:59,279 --> 00:32:03,400
the Weekend Warrior promo. Outside of that, Robio going to

580
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,279
pass it to you for best bets, I'll ask you

581
00:32:05,279 --> 00:32:07,160
if there's anything else that you would like to promote,

582
00:32:07,759 --> 00:32:09,759
and if you have a best bet or you just

583
00:32:10,119 --> 00:32:13,039
want to share anything, feel free. If you don't, it's

584
00:32:13,039 --> 00:32:13,440
all good.

585
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Weekend Warrior is a just a solid package.

586
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,720
I think that Wager Talk keeps running that special over

587
00:32:20,759 --> 00:32:22,759
and over and over again every single week is because

588
00:32:22,759 --> 00:32:25,480
it's been you know, the folks out there have been

589
00:32:25,519 --> 00:32:28,720
pretty receptive too. At forty nine bucks, three days worth

590
00:32:28,799 --> 00:32:33,759
the football Saturday, Sunday Monday. Anything any five percent that

591
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,200
might be released over those three days also included four

592
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,359
to zero and five percent blue hit plays this year

593
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,119
eighteen and five in the NFL last three weeks. So

594
00:32:43,759 --> 00:32:46,599
good enough reason to maybe invest forty nine bucks if

595
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:50,680
you are so inclined. Best bet here, Ski, I'll give you,

596
00:32:51,319 --> 00:32:53,160
you know what we say, an awful lot, and I

597
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,079
know you had this happen to you last night. But

598
00:32:55,519 --> 00:32:57,960
we get caught in a quandary sometimes where we give

599
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:02,559
out or we release pretty high rated plays to clients,

600
00:33:02,599 --> 00:33:04,359
and it's just not fair to give them out for

601
00:33:04,559 --> 00:33:07,759
free here on the show when there's people paying for them. Tonight,

602
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,240
I have a very lightly released play that I will

603
00:33:11,319 --> 00:33:13,519
give out for free here on this show, and that

604
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,079
was the New Mexico State team total over twenty six

605
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,559
and a half points. We talked about the reasons why

606
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,920
they can only throw it. They throw it pretty well.

607
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,920
The other team doesn't defend the past whatsoever. So I

608
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,440
think that New Mexico State, a team that at seventeen

609
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,640
and at halftime last week against a better defense, probably

610
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,440
gets twenty seven here. So again, this is a client

611
00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:36,359
release like I say a lesser client release, but nonetheless

612
00:33:36,839 --> 00:33:38,640
we'll use that as the best bet for today. New

613
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,279
Mexico State team total over twenty six and a half.

614
00:33:42,319 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff for myself. You know, I just

615
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,160
don't like to give best that I have in placed.

616
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,839
But as of today, I don't have a bet in.

617
00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:54,960
You know, if you want to get ahead of the game,

618
00:33:55,079 --> 00:33:57,319
I do have my WNBA play up for tomorrow. That's

619
00:33:57,359 --> 00:33:59,119
on my page. But what I'll do for a best

620
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:05,160
bet for the show right now if on betting, and

621
00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:06,880
I could have bet all of these, just like I

622
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,559
mean yesterday or the day before. You know, we talked

623
00:34:09,599 --> 00:34:11,039
about all the games. I didn't have the bets in

624
00:34:11,119 --> 00:34:13,519
on baseball, but I continue to do my research and

625
00:34:13,519 --> 00:34:16,920
I pushed the button. I'm just telling you the directions

626
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,519
that I would be looking the most today, and that

627
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:28,480
is that San Diego Cubs game first five over. I'm

628
00:34:28,519 --> 00:34:30,719
gonna double check that Cleveland and Detroit game. I got

629
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,360
forty minutes to see what I'm going to do with that.

630
00:34:32,599 --> 00:34:36,079
Looking at the under, I think those two will be

631
00:34:36,159 --> 00:34:39,800
my preferred options. Thursday night football is just there's so

632
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,719
much to still do. At the current number, it's only

633
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,119
one way to play it, but far as best bets,

634
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,599
I think it's probably that San Diego and Cubs first

635
00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:52,880
five over full game over one of the two. Mark.

636
00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:55,159
I haven't got into EUROLD League yet. I did see

637
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:57,760
they start up, started up, but just had a lot

638
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,360
going on, only so many hours in the day. Haven't

639
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,239
had time. You know. I appreciate you taking the time

640
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,719
to come cap these games with us. It's my process

641
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,360
I know, helps everybody else out there, people in the chat,

642
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,519
it's a lot of good capers and just good people

643
00:35:11,599 --> 00:35:14,039
in general. I appreciate everybody coming through with the good

644
00:35:14,119 --> 00:35:16,719
vibes and just trying to help each other win. Everybody

645
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,239
else out there, wherever you're watching, we appreciate you. I

646
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,559
we'll be live again tomorrow. We'll talk a little bit

647
00:35:22,599 --> 00:35:26,719
more NFL. Like get a little college men. It looks

648
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,599
like we're talking about everything now, Robie, Yeah, what are

649
00:35:29,639 --> 00:35:34,679
we not talking about now here? So yeah, best of

650
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,480
luck on all your action and we will catch you

651
00:35:36,559 --> 00:35:37,400
guys again tomorrow