WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Wembley for the This week's like a preview

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<v Speaker 1>of the sky Bet League two player final taking place

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<v Speaker 1>on Monday, as we all expected.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, AFC Wimbledon taking on warsaw It Monday Monday.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, were you celebrating?

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<v Speaker 3>You come to the game.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm coming to the game.

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<v Speaker 1>I just live and breathe the UFLO damn weekend. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the best weekend of all. I joke there because I

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<v Speaker 1>think I backed a chest Field not Cawi final and.

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<v Speaker 2>It's basically played as we thought.

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<v Speaker 1>We couldn't call the League two after we did our

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<v Speaker 1>right where we put up Chesterfield to win. I did

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<v Speaker 1>say in the office, are we all Jimmy right? I

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<v Speaker 1>haven't listened to the League one one. Go back and

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our League one preview or watch it because

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<v Speaker 1>there's a segment of why Jimmy is so giddy at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment on focus with such a star in a

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<v Speaker 1>crazy I did say that have we hopeful? Look the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that Walsall didn't win their last day with the season.

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<v Speaker 2>Are they actually back?

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<v Speaker 1>And what has followed is two wins in both of

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<v Speaker 1>their playoff semi finals against Chesterfield.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm glad You've brought this up because I wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>just dive into a bit of the expected goals data

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<v Speaker 3>because I know you love it on this.

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<v Speaker 2>Why is that bird?

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<v Speaker 3>Jimmy, guys, concentrate on the bed.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll talk to you what you do this.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'll just try and find where the bird's gone.

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<v Speaker 3>So, yeah, walsall finished and they were really shit.

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<v Speaker 2>In terms of the results.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, well, the underlying process was completely the opposite. So

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<v Speaker 3>the last twelve games of the league season, not including

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<v Speaker 3>the two playoff games, they were actually the sixth best

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<v Speaker 3>team in the league based on the underlying data.

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<v Speaker 2>So the process was still there.

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<v Speaker 3>They were just getting some bad breaks and being a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit unlucky, whether I'd be not finishing chances or

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<v Speaker 3>opponents taking in the chances. So having said that, I

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<v Speaker 3>think if they carry on playing the same way, the

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<v Speaker 3>play really well against Chesterfield twice, I'd be quite confident

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<v Speaker 3>back in the mere because effectively you've got over the

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<v Speaker 3>course of the season.

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<v Speaker 2>I had this as well.

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<v Speaker 3>They've actually collected the most expected points over the course

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<v Speaker 3>of the season, even more than Dounka through.

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<v Speaker 2>Obviously got promoted.

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<v Speaker 3>Their expected goal difference beginning was the best in the division,

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<v Speaker 3>so you've got the basically the best team in the league.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe I've refound a bit of confidence obviously, form winning

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<v Speaker 3>form three in a row. I'll be looking at back

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<v Speaker 3>in the May. I think they're a great bet.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe I'm going to I'm going to say this,

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<v Speaker 1>but Jake Stata kind of makes sense because I think

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<v Speaker 1>walstill just looked like they were short of confidence then

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<v Speaker 1>just looked terrified of playing football, and it seemed like

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<v Speaker 1>that was the reason behind the downfall. Ultimately, it just

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<v Speaker 1>gone to a point where they just did not want

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<v Speaker 1>to play football and felt like they just did not

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<v Speaker 1>want to have the ball whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think you can't.

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<v Speaker 4>You can't argue with the fact that whether you want

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<v Speaker 4>to read too much into data or not enough into

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<v Speaker 4>it that althoughother they were a team that were miles

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<v Speaker 4>here at the top of League two and now they've

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<v Speaker 4>rediscovered a bit of form. So really like they ought

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<v Speaker 4>to be favorites going into this game, but they're the outsiders.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's a very.

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<v Speaker 4>Simple bet to back them at above two to one.

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<v Speaker 4>I think you can get with some firms to win

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<v Speaker 4>in ninety minutes. The thing that I would be slightly

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<v Speaker 4>wary of and personally I just would not back the

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<v Speaker 4>outcome in the League two. It's just been just far,

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<v Speaker 4>far too tricky this season and the two legs against Chesterfield.

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<v Speaker 4>The thing that changed for Walsall is and the thing

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<v Speaker 4>that you can kind of add extra context to in

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<v Speaker 4>how a team's data is going to appear is they

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<v Speaker 4>just kept falling behind in all these matches that they

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<v Speaker 4>weren't winning, and then of course you're chasing the game,

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<v Speaker 4>you're racking up chances, so it can appear like you

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<v Speaker 4>are performing better than you are. In that first leg

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<v Speaker 4>against Chesterfield, they managed to score two early goals just

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<v Speaker 4>changes the outcome of the game completely. They scored with

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<v Speaker 4>the first two shots in the match and then they.

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<v Speaker 2>Just absorbed pressure.

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<v Speaker 4>Chesterfield hit the crossbar twice, played really well and in

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<v Speaker 4>these really really small windows of time, everything becomes more

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<v Speaker 4>pronounced that they managed to hold on. Had they not

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<v Speaker 4>held on in that final twenty five minutes against Chesterfield

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<v Speaker 4>in the first leg, we could be talking about a

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<v Speaker 4>very very different situation here. The same happened in the

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<v Speaker 4>second leg. Chesterfield played really really well for a period

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<v Speaker 4>of time, had a striker up front and couldn't score

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<v Speaker 4>didn't take the chances Walter will get away with it.

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<v Speaker 4>They get to the final, they're going to play a

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<v Speaker 4>Wimbledon team that just basically don't conceive goals and they've

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<v Speaker 4>got the best keeper in the league. So are they

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<v Speaker 4>going to get their noses in front in the same

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<v Speaker 4>way as they against Chesterfield? Very very different, So I'd

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<v Speaker 4>just be steering clear of it personally.

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<v Speaker 2>Jimmy say you away from the third who is your area? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, you know what, I always say, You're only as

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<v Speaker 5>good as your last game, and you always.

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<v Speaker 2>Say that always, Mate.

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<v Speaker 5>I should have it tattooed on my forehead because I'm

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<v Speaker 5>just sick of saying it so often.

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<v Speaker 2>Just point, just do that. What does it say bout?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah? But I just I couldn't get away from the

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<v Speaker 5>fact heading into the playoff campaign that Wilsfall squanderd a

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<v Speaker 5>twelve point cushion at the top of the league.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought that was their season, but we all did.

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<v Speaker 5>And it's not really a trumpet because it lost in

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<v Speaker 5>the most dire way. But reckham chester Field got hammered

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<v Speaker 5>in to be the out right when they opened at

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<v Speaker 5>ninety two, and what did they what did they go

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<v Speaker 5>off that before the first like they were closer to

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<v Speaker 5>five to two, weren't they.

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<v Speaker 1>They went they went below three.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so everyone was in agreement. The bookies were in

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<v Speaker 2>an agreement.

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<v Speaker 5>Everyone was that this wasn't going to be the playoff

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<v Speaker 5>campaign for Warsaw the way they entered it, even going

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<v Speaker 5>in the last minute the season, they fell into it

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<v Speaker 5>and to dust themselves off, picking up off the canvas

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<v Speaker 5>and make it all the way to Wembley in convincing style.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean you talk about the.

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<v Speaker 5>Confidence being backed. Albert A dom has assist for the

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<v Speaker 5>last goal. That's not a player who was lacking any confidence,

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<v Speaker 5>is it.

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<v Speaker 2>The feat was unbelievable. I didn't know we could still

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<v Speaker 2>move that quick. It still got it exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>So I'd be leaning towards Walsall because maybe they are

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<v Speaker 5>a good team, as they showed they were in.

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<v Speaker 2>The first half of the season. Maybe they are.

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<v Speaker 5>And to the the what do you call it the

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<v Speaker 5>atmosphere in the second leg, that wasn't a his fan base,

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<v Speaker 5>that wasn't nerves permittating.

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<v Speaker 2>Onto the pitch.

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<v Speaker 5>Maybe the early goal helped, but even before that, I

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<v Speaker 5>didn't strike me as a nervous club. And it's just

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<v Speaker 5>something like that that I'm looking towards in this lead

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<v Speaker 5>to play campaign where it's impossible to call. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>I would be leaning towards Warsaw.

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<v Speaker 2>But I'm not touching this with a barge.

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<v Speaker 1>Poll Delighted you use the phrase impossible to call because

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<v Speaker 1>it can put me on the spot, to put everyone

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<v Speaker 1>on the spot by saying, so I really killed Jimmy?

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<v Speaker 1>Not in my head? Maybe I don't think I said it.

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<v Speaker 1>He turned up in shorts and T shirt when left

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<v Speaker 1>her tell this morning it was rain?

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<v Speaker 3>Is it?

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<v Speaker 1>I got absolutely soaked well on his holidays.

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<v Speaker 2>I haven't got I am on the holidays.

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<v Speaker 3>I can't believe in any clothes women.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he's turned up and he's absolutely triumph now because

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<v Speaker 1>that sun is hot. So we will round up possible

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<v Speaker 1>to call, but a best bet from everyone in this game?

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<v Speaker 1>Whatf do we approach a final of a playoff campaign

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<v Speaker 1>that nobody could call?

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<v Speaker 2>But I'm going to try and make everyone do it.

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<v Speaker 2>In the some ful we'll be looking at.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm really really struggling to find out anything that you

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<v Speaker 4>know the angles that the angle that I would look

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<v Speaker 4>and obviously we're for full disclosure recording. There's on a Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 4>so we're a long way out. It's Wednesday forty four. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>from a Monday game. I see it being really really

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<v Speaker 4>low event, and I can't get away from feeling like

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<v Speaker 4>all of the logic and the prices, which is really

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<v Speaker 4>all that we can go on, says to back Walsall

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<v Speaker 4>to win. But I think that Wimbledon will, and I

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<v Speaker 4>can't really little basically, I can't, you know, I can't

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<v Speaker 4>explain I can't explain it. You know how Sometimes you

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<v Speaker 4>think how the flow of a season's gone, and historically

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<v Speaker 4>Wimbledon as a club and everything they've been through, they

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<v Speaker 4>turn up when it matters, and I just feel like

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<v Speaker 4>that is going to happen, and Walsall this is their

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<v Speaker 4>last chance to save a season that's fallen apart, and

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<v Speaker 4>I just feel like the way of everything is going

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<v Speaker 4>to push it in Wimbledon's direction. And I can't give

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<v Speaker 4>an explanation that's in like the betting or the stats

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<v Speaker 4>or anything, which is why I can't bet on it.

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<v Speaker 2>No better, it's sometimes the best bet.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just going to side on a phrase that I

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<v Speaker 1>honestly am just in tide with Warsaw as the outsider,

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<v Speaker 1>because I just do this in games, particularly at Wembley

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<v Speaker 1>in playoff games. If I don't know who is going

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<v Speaker 1>to win, I really can't work out it's going to win.

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<v Speaker 1>Just take the outsider. There's not much in it. Wimbledon

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<v Speaker 1>a four to five, Warsaw are ten to eleven. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>side with Warsaw to get the job done, just to

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<v Speaker 1>qualify at ten to eleven, or to contradict myself wimbled

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<v Speaker 1>enough depens if you think it's going to go to

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<v Speaker 1>the distance, because you mentioned the goalkeeper Owen Goodbin brilliant

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<v Speaker 1>keeper things online from Palace who obviously have had their

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<v Speaker 1>own success and goalkeeper being the hero in that one,

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<v Speaker 1>so they're kind of the two approaches. But again like

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<v Speaker 1>you're just slightly cold on this game from a betting perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>but from a watching a game, even as bad as

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<v Speaker 1>it is or it could be, I'm quite excited for

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<v Speaker 1>it because if it is hard to call.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, can I shock you because you just mentioned him then?

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<v Speaker 5>But I would really be looking towards a result and

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<v Speaker 5>the keeper cards Goodman, what a keeper, Jimmy.

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<v Speaker 1>I think obviously that spell like Paul Chester was it

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<v Speaker 1>last year which didn't quite go as well. But obviously

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<v Speaker 1>wimbled and it's been phenomenal, but keep card result told.

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<v Speaker 5>Me, yeah, second best keeper to maybe the lad in

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<v Speaker 5>the Walsall net Simpkin for cards you made, yes, you

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<v Speaker 5>know what he would Jimmy what mess.

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<v Speaker 1>Jimmy was very unlucky in the semis to say disgrace

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<v Speaker 1>you took the Warsaw keeper to be carded and ship out.

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<v Speaker 2>It was. It was an absolute disgrace.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Wolves.

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<v Speaker 2>I think do the Keeyper card double both.

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<v Speaker 5>Right, yep, yeah, both results both keepers. I do get

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<v Speaker 5>the logic and just having the keeper to be bopted

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<v Speaker 5>as single, but the the just to the explainer the

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<v Speaker 5>FRED is obviously you need the team to be winning

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<v Speaker 5>for the team for the player to be carded, and

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<v Speaker 5>you're doubling the prize. So some firms are getting rid,

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<v Speaker 5>they're getting a bit shrewd of the idiots. But it

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<v Speaker 5>he's definitely worth combining it because it does almost double it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>and Simpkins an absolute keeper card back is dream.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Warsaw will win. I think it's gone under

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<v Speaker 3>the radar a little bit that Wimbledon actually finished the

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<v Speaker 3>season as badly as Warsaw, so at the last fifteen games,

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<v Speaker 3>Wimled have picked up just three more points than Warsall

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<v Speaker 3>and everyone's like, oh, Walls Wall have fallen apart. Well,

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<v Speaker 3>Wimbledon were in the play in the automatic race as

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<v Speaker 3>well and they fell to pieces, So I think you've

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<v Speaker 3>got that's probably not been spoken about enough. I think

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<v Speaker 3>Walsall win, but again I'm sing about the unders. I

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<v Speaker 3>think Walsall win and unders is something that I'd be

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<v Speaker 3>looking at. I'm also going to be back in Warsaw

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<v Speaker 3>to win one nil Charlt and one nil Blades one

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<v Speaker 3>nil because I think it's that kind of a game

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<v Speaker 3>where one.

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<v Speaker 2>Nil trouble trouble. So I do cross game trebles.

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<v Speaker 3>I just don't like.

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<v Speaker 5>Because I would do keep if dad. I'm looking to

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<v Speaker 5>retire this summer this weekend, so I'm going to be combined,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, VICKI Cooper United.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a bit of a selection close to my heart.

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<v Speaker 4>And then rooksn't really need toilet.

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<v Speaker 2>Charlton in their keyper where is Aladder wears gloves, sends

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<v Speaker 2>in between the sticks.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and then the final game, oh oh yeah, sinking

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<v Speaker 5>and walls. So those three, assuming you get ten times

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<v Speaker 5>ten times ten, you'll be looking about ten thousand to one,

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<v Speaker 5>so and that's a minimum.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I.

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<v Speaker 4>Get well if you are penny on that, if you're

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<v Speaker 4>backing a million.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're trying to retire gym rods. As we've said

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<v Speaker 1>every single week though, if you are backing anything in

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<v Speaker 1>the selections, please gamble responsibly, never bet that you can afford.

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<v Speaker 2>Please keep it somewhat sensible. Gymeral.

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<v Speaker 1>If you haven't already, check out the Championship, the League

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<v Speaker 1>One previews that we've done, the podcast there, and for

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<v Speaker 1>all things sky Bets EFL playoff finals weekend, make sure

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<v Speaker 1>your head to sports life dot com forward slash football