Speaker 1: Welcome to Wembley for the This week's like a preview
Speaker 1: of the sky Bet League two player final taking place
Speaker 1: on Monday, as we all expected.
Speaker 2: Of course, AFC Wimbledon taking on warsaw It Monday Monday.
Speaker 2: Of course, were you celebrating?
Speaker 3: You come to the game.
Speaker 4: I'm coming to the game.
Speaker 1: I just live and breathe the UFLO damn weekend. It's
Speaker 1: the best weekend of all. I joke there because I
Speaker 1: think I backed a chest Field not Cawi final and.
Speaker 2: It's basically played as we thought.
Speaker 1: We couldn't call the League two after we did our
Speaker 1: right where we put up Chesterfield to win. I did
Speaker 1: say in the office, are we all Jimmy right? I
Speaker 1: haven't listened to the League one one. Go back and
Speaker 1: listen to our League one preview or watch it because
Speaker 1: there's a segment of why Jimmy is so giddy at
Speaker 1: the moment on focus with such a star in a
Speaker 1: crazy I did say that have we hopeful? Look the
Speaker 1: fact that Walsall didn't win their last day with the season.
Speaker 2: Are they actually back?
Speaker 1: And what has followed is two wins in both of
Speaker 1: their playoff semi finals against Chesterfield.
Speaker 3: I'm glad You've brought this up because I wanted to
Speaker 3: just dive into a bit of the expected goals data
Speaker 3: because I know you love it on this.
Speaker 2: Why is that bird?
Speaker 3: Jimmy, guys, concentrate on the bed.
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you what you do this.
Speaker 1: So I'll just try and find where the bird's gone.
Speaker 3: So, yeah, walsall finished and they were really shit.
Speaker 2: In terms of the results.
Speaker 3: Yes, well, the underlying process was completely the opposite. So
Speaker 3: the last twelve games of the league season, not including
Speaker 3: the two playoff games, they were actually the sixth best
Speaker 3: team in the league based on the underlying data.
Speaker 2: So the process was still there.
Speaker 3: They were just getting some bad breaks and being a
Speaker 3: little bit unlucky, whether I'd be not finishing chances or
Speaker 3: opponents taking in the chances. So having said that, I
Speaker 3: think if they carry on playing the same way, the
Speaker 3: play really well against Chesterfield twice, I'd be quite confident
Speaker 3: back in the mere because effectively you've got over the
Speaker 3: course of the season.
Speaker 2: I had this as well.
Speaker 3: They've actually collected the most expected points over the course
Speaker 3: of the season, even more than Dounka through.
Speaker 2: Obviously got promoted.
Speaker 3: Their expected goal difference beginning was the best in the division,
Speaker 3: so you've got the basically the best team in the league.
Speaker 3: Maybe I've refound a bit of confidence obviously, form winning
Speaker 3: form three in a row. I'll be looking at back
Speaker 3: in the May. I think they're a great bet.
Speaker 1: I believe I'm going to I'm going to say this,
Speaker 1: but Jake Stata kind of makes sense because I think
Speaker 1: walstill just looked like they were short of confidence then
Speaker 1: just looked terrified of playing football, and it seemed like
Speaker 1: that was the reason behind the downfall. Ultimately, it just
Speaker 1: gone to a point where they just did not want
Speaker 1: to play football and felt like they just did not
Speaker 1: want to have the ball whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you can't.
Speaker 4: You can't argue with the fact that whether you want
Speaker 4: to read too much into data or not enough into
Speaker 4: it that althoughother they were a team that were miles
Speaker 4: here at the top of League two and now they've
Speaker 4: rediscovered a bit of form. So really like they ought
Speaker 4: to be favorites going into this game, but they're the outsiders.
Speaker 2: So it's a very.
Speaker 4: Simple bet to back them at above two to one.
Speaker 4: I think you can get with some firms to win
Speaker 4: in ninety minutes. The thing that I would be slightly
Speaker 4: wary of and personally I just would not back the
Speaker 4: outcome in the League two. It's just been just far,
Speaker 4: far too tricky this season and the two legs against Chesterfield.
Speaker 4: The thing that changed for Walsall is and the thing
Speaker 4: that you can kind of add extra context to in
Speaker 4: how a team's data is going to appear is they
Speaker 4: just kept falling behind in all these matches that they
Speaker 4: weren't winning, and then of course you're chasing the game,
Speaker 4: you're racking up chances, so it can appear like you
Speaker 4: are performing better than you are. In that first leg
Speaker 4: against Chesterfield, they managed to score two early goals just
Speaker 4: changes the outcome of the game completely. They scored with
Speaker 4: the first two shots in the match and then they.
Speaker 2: Just absorbed pressure.
Speaker 4: Chesterfield hit the crossbar twice, played really well and in
Speaker 4: these really really small windows of time, everything becomes more
Speaker 4: pronounced that they managed to hold on. Had they not
Speaker 4: held on in that final twenty five minutes against Chesterfield
Speaker 4: in the first leg, we could be talking about a
Speaker 4: very very different situation here. The same happened in the
Speaker 4: second leg. Chesterfield played really really well for a period
Speaker 4: of time, had a striker up front and couldn't score
Speaker 4: didn't take the chances Walter will get away with it.
Speaker 4: They get to the final, they're going to play a
Speaker 4: Wimbledon team that just basically don't conceive goals and they've
Speaker 4: got the best keeper in the league. So are they
Speaker 4: going to get their noses in front in the same
Speaker 4: way as they against Chesterfield? Very very different, So I'd
Speaker 4: just be steering clear of it personally.
Speaker 2: Jimmy say you away from the third who is your area? Yeah?
Speaker 5: Well, you know what, I always say, You're only as
Speaker 5: good as your last game, and you always.
Speaker 2: Say that always, Mate.
Speaker 5: I should have it tattooed on my forehead because I'm
Speaker 5: just sick of saying it so often.
Speaker 2: Just point, just do that. What does it say bout?
Speaker 5: Yeah? But I just I couldn't get away from the
Speaker 5: fact heading into the playoff campaign that Wilsfall squanderd a
Speaker 5: twelve point cushion at the top of the league.
Speaker 2: I thought that was their season, but we all did.
Speaker 5: And it's not really a trumpet because it lost in
Speaker 5: the most dire way. But reckham chester Field got hammered
Speaker 5: in to be the out right when they opened at
Speaker 5: ninety two, and what did they what did they go
Speaker 5: off that before the first like they were closer to
Speaker 5: five to two, weren't they.
Speaker 1: They went they went below three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so everyone was in agreement. The bookies were in
Speaker 2: an agreement.
Speaker 5: Everyone was that this wasn't going to be the playoff
Speaker 5: campaign for Warsaw the way they entered it, even going
Speaker 5: in the last minute the season, they fell into it
Speaker 5: and to dust themselves off, picking up off the canvas
Speaker 5: and make it all the way to Wembley in convincing style.
Speaker 2: I mean you talk about the.
Speaker 5: Confidence being backed. Albert A dom has assist for the
Speaker 5: last goal. That's not a player who was lacking any confidence,
Speaker 5: is it.
Speaker 2: The feat was unbelievable. I didn't know we could still
Speaker 2: move that quick. It still got it exactly.
Speaker 5: So I'd be leaning towards Walsall because maybe they are
Speaker 5: a good team, as they showed they were in.
Speaker 2: The first half of the season. Maybe they are.
Speaker 5: And to the the what do you call it the
Speaker 5: atmosphere in the second leg, that wasn't a his fan base,
Speaker 5: that wasn't nerves permittating.
Speaker 2: Onto the pitch.
Speaker 5: Maybe the early goal helped, but even before that, I
Speaker 5: didn't strike me as a nervous club. And it's just
Speaker 5: something like that that I'm looking towards in this lead
Speaker 5: to play campaign where it's impossible to call. But yeah,
Speaker 5: I would be leaning towards Warsaw.
Speaker 2: But I'm not touching this with a barge.
Speaker 1: Poll Delighted you use the phrase impossible to call because
Speaker 1: it can put me on the spot, to put everyone
Speaker 1: on the spot by saying, so I really killed Jimmy?
Speaker 1: Not in my head? Maybe I don't think I said it.
Speaker 1: He turned up in shorts and T shirt when left
Speaker 1: her tell this morning it was rain?
Speaker 3: Is it?
Speaker 1: I got absolutely soaked well on his holidays.
Speaker 2: I haven't got I am on the holidays.
Speaker 3: I can't believe in any clothes women.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's turned up and he's absolutely triumph now because
Speaker 1: that sun is hot. So we will round up possible
Speaker 1: to call, but a best bet from everyone in this game?
Speaker 1: Whatf do we approach a final of a playoff campaign
Speaker 1: that nobody could call?
Speaker 2: But I'm going to try and make everyone do it.
Speaker 2: In the some ful we'll be looking at.
Speaker 4: I'm really really struggling to find out anything that you
Speaker 4: know the angles that the angle that I would look
Speaker 4: and obviously we're for full disclosure recording. There's on a Wednesday,
Speaker 4: so we're a long way out. It's Wednesday forty four. Yeah,
Speaker 4: from a Monday game. I see it being really really
Speaker 4: low event, and I can't get away from feeling like
Speaker 4: all of the logic and the prices, which is really
Speaker 4: all that we can go on, says to back Walsall
Speaker 4: to win. But I think that Wimbledon will, and I
Speaker 4: can't really little basically, I can't, you know, I can't
Speaker 4: explain I can't explain it. You know how Sometimes you
Speaker 4: think how the flow of a season's gone, and historically
Speaker 4: Wimbledon as a club and everything they've been through, they
Speaker 4: turn up when it matters, and I just feel like
Speaker 4: that is going to happen, and Walsall this is their
Speaker 4: last chance to save a season that's fallen apart, and
Speaker 4: I just feel like the way of everything is going
Speaker 4: to push it in Wimbledon's direction. And I can't give
Speaker 4: an explanation that's in like the betting or the stats
Speaker 4: or anything, which is why I can't bet on it.
Speaker 2: No better, it's sometimes the best bet.
Speaker 1: I'm just going to side on a phrase that I
Speaker 1: honestly am just in tide with Warsaw as the outsider,
Speaker 1: because I just do this in games, particularly at Wembley
Speaker 1: in playoff games. If I don't know who is going
Speaker 1: to win, I really can't work out it's going to win.
Speaker 1: Just take the outsider. There's not much in it. Wimbledon
Speaker 1: a four to five, Warsaw are ten to eleven. I'll
Speaker 1: side with Warsaw to get the job done, just to
Speaker 1: qualify at ten to eleven, or to contradict myself wimbled
Speaker 1: enough depens if you think it's going to go to
Speaker 1: the distance, because you mentioned the goalkeeper Owen Goodbin brilliant
Speaker 1: keeper things online from Palace who obviously have had their
Speaker 1: own success and goalkeeper being the hero in that one,
Speaker 1: so they're kind of the two approaches. But again like
Speaker 1: you're just slightly cold on this game from a betting perspective,
Speaker 1: but from a watching a game, even as bad as
Speaker 1: it is or it could be, I'm quite excited for
Speaker 1: it because if it is hard to call.
Speaker 2: Well, can I shock you because you just mentioned him then?
Speaker 5: But I would really be looking towards a result and
Speaker 5: the keeper cards Goodman, what a keeper, Jimmy.
Speaker 1: I think obviously that spell like Paul Chester was it
Speaker 1: last year which didn't quite go as well. But obviously
Speaker 1: wimbled and it's been phenomenal, but keep card result told.
Speaker 5: Me, yeah, second best keeper to maybe the lad in
Speaker 5: the Walsall net Simpkin for cards you made, yes, you
Speaker 5: know what he would Jimmy what mess.
Speaker 1: Jimmy was very unlucky in the semis to say disgrace
Speaker 1: you took the Warsaw keeper to be carded and ship out.
Speaker 2: It was. It was an absolute disgrace.
Speaker 3: I think Wolves.
Speaker 2: I think do the Keeyper card double both.
Speaker 5: Right, yep, yeah, both results both keepers. I do get
Speaker 5: the logic and just having the keeper to be bopted
Speaker 5: as single, but the the just to the explainer the
Speaker 5: FRED is obviously you need the team to be winning
Speaker 5: for the team for the player to be carded, and
Speaker 5: you're doubling the prize. So some firms are getting rid,
Speaker 5: they're getting a bit shrewd of the idiots. But it
Speaker 5: he's definitely worth combining it because it does almost double it. Yeah,
Speaker 5: and Simpkins an absolute keeper card back is dream.
Speaker 3: I think Warsaw will win. I think it's gone under
Speaker 3: the radar a little bit that Wimbledon actually finished the
Speaker 3: season as badly as Warsaw, so at the last fifteen games,
Speaker 3: Wimled have picked up just three more points than Warsall
Speaker 3: and everyone's like, oh, Walls Wall have fallen apart. Well,
Speaker 3: Wimbledon were in the play in the automatic race as
Speaker 3: well and they fell to pieces, So I think you've
Speaker 3: got that's probably not been spoken about enough. I think
Speaker 3: Walsall win, but again I'm sing about the unders. I
Speaker 3: think Walsall win and unders is something that I'd be
Speaker 3: looking at. I'm also going to be back in Warsaw
Speaker 3: to win one nil Charlt and one nil Blades one
Speaker 3: nil because I think it's that kind of a game
Speaker 3: where one.
Speaker 2: Nil trouble trouble. So I do cross game trebles.
Speaker 3: I just don't like.
Speaker 5: Because I would do keep if dad. I'm looking to
Speaker 5: retire this summer this weekend, so I'm going to be combined,
Speaker 5: you know, VICKI Cooper United.
Speaker 2: That's a bit of a selection close to my heart.
Speaker 4: And then rooksn't really need toilet.
Speaker 2: Charlton in their keyper where is Aladder wears gloves, sends
Speaker 2: in between the sticks.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and then the final game, oh oh yeah, sinking
Speaker 5: and walls. So those three, assuming you get ten times
Speaker 5: ten times ten, you'll be looking about ten thousand to one,
Speaker 5: so and that's a minimum.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Get well if you are penny on that, if you're
Speaker 4: backing a million.
Speaker 1: If you're trying to retire gym rods. As we've said
Speaker 1: every single week though, if you are backing anything in
Speaker 1: the selections, please gamble responsibly, never bet that you can afford.
Speaker 2: Please keep it somewhat sensible. Gymeral.
Speaker 1: If you haven't already, check out the Championship, the League
Speaker 1: One previews that we've done, the podcast there, and for
Speaker 1: all things sky Bets EFL playoff finals weekend, make sure
Speaker 1: your head to sports life dot com forward slash football