Speaker 1: Welcome into a wager Talks Last Call College Football Week two.
As you guys can tell, I'm not in my traditional office,
but you guys are gonna bear with me through any
technical difficulties because I am here for you. You know
who else is gonna be here for you, Yanni the Greek.
He is going to give you guys all of that steam.
We're gonna talk some UFC as well, So if you
guys have a question regarding today's college football slate, drop
it in the chat. UFC, drop it in the chat.
Art to Caesar from the Westgate super Book unfortunately is
not going to be joining us. They're pretty busy there
if you guys can imagine at the Westgate super Book.
But he did send me his list, so we're gonna
go over that as well. And then Shawnalberis from wager
Talk dot Com. It's gonna be batt and clean up
for me. He's gonna take all of your college football questions.
We're gonna hit all the top games, and of course
I've got some questions for him because he and I
agree on a few games on his list. Let's get
right into it. We're gonna bring in Yanni the Greek.
I call him VR. You guys can catch him every
single Wednesday with me on bat On It if you
guys missed it. But there is a college football edition
of bet on It, there is an NFL edition to
bet on It, and we have a mega show. Sorry
Sean Dan is not here. On Saturdays, we got Louis
from the Kelly and Murray Show running the behind the
scenes VR. Welcome in, Happy Saturday.
Speaker 2: Busy busy morning, Kel like all college football. I knew
it coming into Saturday morning, we were going to get
the extra game, stop, some of the derivatives, first quarter,
first half bets coming in, and a lot a lot
of college football, got some UFC, even some Major League Baseball,
and of course NFL kicking off the Morrow. So it's
a busy, busy twenty four hours. Not from Better for
sports betters.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I'm gonna give you guys arts list first that
he texted me this morning. That way we can kind
of compare it to VR. Make sure you guys have
your Odds Logic screen Openoddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly in
Vegas that is going to give you a seven day
free trial if you guys aren't professional betters, don't feel
like you need a real time odds screen. We also
still have the free odds screen up wt dot Buzz
backslash Odds there on wager talk dot com. Just know
that it does have a slight delay VR one pulling
up arts text message. I have a little panic this morning.
I had my odds logic screen open and it was
going berserk, and I thought, why the hell is Yukon
going up to seven in some spots? I thought, I
asked Louis, our producer. I said, oh my god, if
somebody hurt for Yukon. What happened in the last couple
of hours. It was five and a half this morning.
So while read off the list from Art, I want
you to kind of look into that for me and
see what the heck is going on. Art and Caesar
said they are gonna need Clemson to cover, They're gonna
need South Florida to cover, They're gonna need Rice to cover,
and they're gonna need Michigan to cover. But interesting enough,
the public is all over Michigan. They're also all over Syracuse,
Michigan State, and Illinois. They took four sharp bets in
c State minus three Colorado minus twenty three and a half.
Ohio plus three and a half against John Murray's West
Virginia Mountaineers is a very interesting one. And then Hawaii
minus six and a half VR. Did you find anything
out for me on the Yukon game? Was that just
all steam?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and a comeback? It was a comeback on the
UH sign because remember it opened eight and a half nine,
So when it went down through that key number of seven,
and then you saw the minus six and a half
betters come in on the Yukon side exactly like you
touched on with. Aren't saying Hawaii because we actually bet
Sam Houston at plus ten. And then I saw another
group betted at plus eight and a half because they
moved from ten straight to eight and a half. I
saw another group betted at eight and a half. When
it got down to six and a half. The same
group that took the plus ten laid the six and
a half with Hawaii for even a little bit more money.
So they have Hawaii minus six and a half and
Sam Houston plus ten in that game. So once it
moves that significantly, I'm not surprised to see a little
two way action, and I think that's exactly what we're
seeing in Hawaii, as I mean in Connecticut as well.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, wow, that's not necessarily great for me, but
I did just retweet the show, So shout out to
almost a thousand of you guys watching live. We've only
been on here for about four minutes. That is awesome
that you guys are here, especially those on the West
Coast like VR and Sean Bright and early out there.
I know VR has been up since five am, so
that's a completely different thing. The comment section is going fast.
Make sure you guys give us those likes. We are
thirty eight subscribers away on YouTube from two hundred and
sixteen thousand, so please make sure you're subscribed as well.
Speaker 3: VR.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get back into sport college football here Iowa,
Iowa State. We've got some questions in the comment They
want to know who's gonna win the game, and then
there was another question in regard to the total.
Speaker 2: I Alwa was again perfect because I gave out a
four percent two subscribers, and my suscribers won't care today
because I gave them a glimpse for this week of
what it looks like in my life. I gave them
everything I'm moving not in the package, but for the subscribers,
so they're seeing the volume in Iowa. Iowa State was
one of those games we did bet over. We went
over forty two and a half. I gave it as
a four percent four subscribers, so that's one percent of
bank roll. We didn't bet the side, but I know
there was something on the side, so let me look
real fast.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we saw it go from three into three and
a half. This morning, VR, I have Iowa plus three
in pocket. I thought about sprinkling a little bit on
that money line. As you know, Kirk Ferrence has covered
six and one sixth straight there in aims. It seems
like the visitor does well in that rivalry. But three
and a half kind of made my stomach turn. Like
I mentioned, I opened that Odds Logic screen, I thought,
what the hell happened in the last hour that I
started getting ready for the show.
Speaker 2: Just reading the market. That worries me a little bit
on the dog, only because looking in the back end
right now, I'm seeing that the recreational counts and there's
a lot more money on the dog. When I see
that come off, that key number of three going to
three and a half and the like they were willing
to take plus three, now they're giving them three and
a half. That always worries me. Again, I don't have
a position on that game, but just reading the market
gun the head Iowa state minus three would be my side.
I'm cheering you in from the sidelines because I don't
have a dog in that fight, but I have the
over so I want to see some points and I
hope i AWA gets there for you at plus marg number.
It was three all week. You got three and a
half at least, so you got a good number there,
and I'm still seeing at my Sharper shops there's still three,
Like Pennies got three still, So okay.
Speaker 1: Very good point. And that's something you guys can do
on the Odds Logic screen. I was actually explaining to
our producer Louis, who just got an Odds Logic account
the other day. I said, hey, look, you can hit
that gear button in the upper left hand corner and
you can turn on and off the books that you use.
The other day, this book named Paradise Wager came up
and I'm like, what the hell is this? Turns out
I let Brett use my Odds Logic account. He screwed
up all of my books, so I had to go
back and reorganize because obviously the shops that he bets
at are going to be different than the ones that
I bet at.
Speaker 2: And I gotta say this, I got to interrupt. Paradise
Wager is one of the sharpest books to use. Now really, yeah,
get like they're there. If the markets off, I would
trust Paradise. I know who's behind that, very very very
very sharp people are behind that that book. Okay, yeah,
you want to pay attention to their line moves. I
keep them up and have an account with it just
for that purpose. It's kind of like my uh my,
my private little sharp book. A lot of betters don't
know just how sharp they are, but I kind of
use them like the pinnacle fade, the pinnacle shade.
Speaker 1: I mean, there you go. That's a good that's a good. Uh,
that's a good way to look at it. There's a
couple other books that I use better, or is one
that Johnny Detroit told me it was also very sharp,
so was on there. So Paradise Wager is now on
my Odds Logic screen. All right, let's kind of get
into the just got here is Kelly bashing the SEC
Yet not yet, you just wait and see. We will
get to that. Here in a minute, is Kelly on
tilt from the k State game. Mac got someone to know.
Just just a tiny bit, just a tiny bit. Look,
here's the here's the reality. There are some funny memes
going around this morning about the k State football team,
and I had a good laugh. I sent one to
our athletic director. He laughed, I think we're gonna be okay.
Let's see. Marco gave out if you guys miss bet
on it K State as his best bet on the
College Football Show, and my job hit the floor, and
literally you could pick my job at the floor, he said. Kelly.
K State was in a quintessential letdown spot last week.
They come home from Ireland tail between their legs. You
should have known that they were gonna come out flat,
he goes. I expect a big bounce back this week,
so hopefully that is the case.
Speaker 3: VR.
Speaker 1: Let's get into some of these other games that you like,
and then we will touch on some UFC because you
have some UFC kicking or kicking off that's starting here
in about an hour there on the West coast.
Speaker 2: All right, here's some of that that the college football
that the stuff that came in this morning. I always
liked that late Saturday college morning because you get stuff
like this. You get stuff like ball State, ball State
versus Alburn team total over six and a half plus
one ten. So that's ball State over six and a
half team total plus one ten. Also tennessall State three
thirty seven plus twenty one and a half in the
first half. Another first half bet Houston Rice total over
nineteen and a half, so that's Houston Rice over nineteen
and a half. And then one that just came in
right before I got on board was Texas A and
M three forty Texas A and M minus seven first
quarter all the way up to minus one thirty to
get minus seven in the first quarter. And a final
first quarter bet SMU three thirty four SMU first quarter
minus one thirty money line two first halfs that came in.
Also Florida International plus twenty six and Can't plus thirty,
so we got Florida International plus twenty six, Can't plus thirty.
Both of those first half bets and some of the
other sides I'll give you Texas A and M we
bet them for a full game at minus thirty and
a half and again bet them today. Like I said,
in the first quarter at minus seven. Oregon State, we
laid the two and a half after fading them last week.
I told you about Sam Houston and Hawaii. You know
min New Mexico State, live dog, barking dog from bet
on It, a few other things. Oh, first quarter under
twelve and a half, Virginia, NC State under What else
do I have for you? There's just so much there.
There's so much stuff, so much stuff. I could just
keep going. Oh, some of the bigger favorites Colorado minus
twenty three and a half, Cincinnati minus twenty one and
a half, and Troy the big dogs Troy plus thirty
one and a half and Oklahoma State plus twenty eight
and a half. So Troy plus thirty one and a
half Oklahoma State plus twenty eight and a half. Those
are two of the bigger dogs that they took. Now,
the one sided bets that I'm seeing from the public,
the most heavily one sided Texas, none bigger than Texas.
They are laying the thirty six is thirty sevens. Whatever
they could get, they're laying in Texas, they're Illinois annoy
minus three. Also short money on Illinois on the money line,
but the public's betting them at minus three. Oregon, Oregon
getting one sided action there, Penn State getting one sided
action there, Clemson one sided action. So those big favorites
are getting a lot of the money. Indiana, Texas, Texas,
a and m Oregon, Penn State, Clemson, like those minus
thirties are all getting one sided public money. The one
dog that sticks out that they're liking is Michigan, Michigan, Michigan,
Michigan getting a lot of Michigan, a lot of Michigan
money line bets, so that one sticks out. And as
far as totals go, biggest totals bet money, why so
far under Michigan, Oklahoma they just keep betting that one under,
and then Oklahoma State and Oregon they keep betting that
one over, no surprise. So the biggest one sided under
is Michigan, Oklahoma. Biggest one sided overs Oklahoma State and Oregon.
At some of the college football action for today, A
lot of.
Speaker 1: That is the steam that kind of gives you a
look behind the counter there in the steam room with ace,
you guys, is going to be on tomorrow right after
last call. So those of you asking where Ariel is
in the chat, she will be here for every single
NFL Sunday except for next week, where I'm going to
be filling in for two weeks from now. I'm going
to be filling in for her on the twenty first
so that she can go visit her little brother. But
right here bet the steam room with Ace. Right there
we go. You guys can see him Sunday noon. V
are kind of let people know what they can get
from you here in the steam room every single Sunday.
Right Subscribers only if you are a at least thirty
day subscriber, correct.
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, And you're going to want to join us
this Sunday to see exactly what we're going to be
doing each and every week in the NFL. So if
you're jumping on board, jump on board for a month
or longer. We're doing really well right now. Again, you
can see the numbers. They don't lie. We're crushing it
over to Land week. We're crushing in college football number
one right now we started to to and zero in
the NFL. I've getten such good information. I'm so confident
about the next couple months and in the steam room
what we're gonna do to Mars. We're gonna go two
hours leading up to the kickoff of the one pm
Eastern games. Leading into those two hours, I'm gonna go
through every single NFL game, give you any bets that
we're on side in total, let you know opinion if
I don't have a premium play on it, let you
know what I see as far as the back end
and the market. Let you all know the player props
for each of the games as they're coming in. We're
gonna betting live, and more importantly, fifteen minutes before kickoff,
we will put together those special teasers that we fired
last year and did really well with Again. Can't release
those subscribes because some weeks there's just so many of them.
But if you're in that steam room, we're gonna get
a ton of information. I'm there for two hours answering
your questions and more importantly, accountable for the picks I release.
I have a lot of volume Saturday, so we're gonna
We're gonna settle a lot today and see how we're
doing them.
Speaker 1: All that's great. He's also gonna go over some of
those teasers live on Last Call with Arionell and of
course Monday before the doubleheader kicks off, Joe Madden's going
to be here on wager Talk Last Call. We're trying
to make this much more of a up to kickoff
type show, and that's what we're doing here on Saturday morning.
We're gonna take you guys up to kick off. Steve
Merrill just texts me, so we're gonna bring Sean Alvarez
here in a few after we touch on some MLB
and UFC for you guys, I know this is a
college football show, but you're asking for it in the comments.
Does do me ever and hit that like button, and
of course don't forget to subscribe so we can hit
that two hundred and sixteen thousand subscriber mark today VR
kind of let's get a look behind the counter there.
UFC Paris correct.
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, you have see Paris actually going off in
forty five minutes. It's something the main event right away.
A lot of sharp money on Kyle Bohio that that
market opened it up like a pick a minus one
ten either way. Since then, the sharps have lined up
on the Ohio side, I lean that way, but I'm
afraid because it's in France, and what I like is
the over anything minus two hundred or better. This fight
definitely goes to the scorecards two out of three times.
Neither has the striking to finish the other one on
the feet, and then they're both so good on the
mat defensively, I don't think one can finish the other.
Two durable guys go over four and a half again
good to minus two hundred. Also, a lot of betters
are on Gustavson now he's now the favorite. A good
way to bet that one is by decision. I got
plus two thirty on gust of Sin to win that
fight by decision. I got Patterson at plus two thirty
to win by decision as well, and then in the
ladies Sam Hughes also to win by decision at minus
one twenty. So there's three props for you. Gustav Sen
plus two thirty to win by decision, Patterson plus two
thirty to win by decision, Hughes minus one twenty to
win that by decision, and then the over four and
a half in the main event. There's four UFC bets
for you right there, with some dogs split. We make
some money, all.
Speaker 1: Right, you love it. The guys in the questions are
all asking for MLB, so I'm gonna concede. Yes, this
is a football show, but I'll let you rattle off
some MLB for the MLB Dorks today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been doing good with the MLB. Can't overlook
that market. Again. Money don't care where it comes from,
as long as it keeps coming. Now, the series bets
we put in yesterday before first pitch five series bets
Cincinnati plus one twenty, Milwaukee minus one forty, Baltimore plus
one eighty, Houston plus one ten, San Francisco plus one thirty. Milwaukee, Baltimore,
San Francisco all won Game one, so they have to
win one of the next two games for us to
cash those tickets. Cincinnati and Houston lost game one, so
both of those teams have to win today and tomorrow
for us to cash those tickets. Just keep that in
mind today. Some of the moves I got five signs
for you nine to fifty five Pittsburgh plus one thirty five,
nine to sixty nine, Minnesota minus one fifteen, nine to
seventy three Athletics plus one nine seventy seven Attult plus
one twenty and nine to eighty Arizona plus one ten.
So we had college football, UFC, Major League Baseball. You
gotta make some when the dust settles. Let's just hope
we all turn a profit. Whether you follow or fate,
I just hope we all make a little bit of
money today so we can go in the Sunday's NFL
ready to do some more damage then week.
Speaker 1: That is the plan. I need some of the dogs
to be barking today. VR, good luck on your underdogs
in Mexico State. I joined you on them as well. Again, guys,
if you missed the college football edition to bet on it, it
is up right now in the waiter Talk YouTube channel,
the NFL show, Marco's Got a Deli segment, Ralph's Got
a TNA segment. We put the whole thing together in
one big mega show.
Speaker 3: VR.
Speaker 1: I will tune in tomorrow to see you with Ariel Epstein,
same time, same place, right here on the wager Talk
YouTube channel. Again, guys. At Greek Underscore Gambler. If you
guys are looking to follow VR, he puts out a
ton of great content. We're gonna move right along. Move
me into the spot I don't know why I'm trying
to play producer here because I ain't any good at it,
So I'm gonna let Louie do it on the back end. See,
this is why I need him on Saturday mornings, because
I'm trying too hard. I'm reading the comments section, and yes, Thomas,
we do need a rebound on the dog parlay, My
dog parlay. Michael is Kentucky, you kN and Kansas. So
let's see. We've had some good numbers on a couple
of those, and a couple move the other way. We'll
keep our fingers crossed that if the dogs are barking you,
miss Dan, don't worry. Dan is here every single day.
Louie is not chopped liver. He's doing a great job
there in the background. Sewn Alvaz is laughing off screen,
so let's bring him in to the show. Hey, Sean,
good morning, happy Saturday, early out there on the West Coast.
I'm sure you're having a great time here behind the scenes.
Speaker 3: No, I'm always always good to laugh with you and Johnny.
And you know I take a little offense. I was
up at at five in the morning as well with Johnnie,
so gotta get up gotta get up early on the
West Coast.
Speaker 1: See, and that's what everybody argues if you are a
night out. I'm gonna say this right now. That's why
I love the East Coast. I love it. I don't
mind staying up late to watch football. I went to
bed last couple of nights at one am, and I
slept until eight am. You can't do that on the
West Coast. I used to have to be at the
sports book at five am some mornings, and it was awful.
If you're not a morning person like Sean and and VR,
the East Coast is where it's at.
Speaker 3: I'm telling you, yeah, And I'm the exact opposite, like
you said, I'm more of a morning person. I want
to go to bed. You know. If I'm going to
bed past ten pm, it's a it's a late night.
Nothing good happens in Vegas past ten pm.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna put this on the screen because
this happened to me last night, Matt Hudson said. Florida
first half USF quarterback is suspended for the first half.
I'm sitting there playing a little it's a little card
game at the bar that my dad goes to it's
called show me the money. So I'm over there. I'm like,
I need a six of hearts and then I'm gonna win.
And of course I got the six of hearts and
so did he at the same time, and we had
to split a forty two dollars pot. Not exactly my
favorite thing, but I got this text. Joey ch sent
it to me, and I said, son of a bitch,
but good thing I got Florida. Mine is seventeen. It
was my best bet on bet on it. You guys
are welcome, and immediately the comment section is like you
got dooped. So unfortunately, Mac Hudson, that is not real information.
That is fake news and it was not very much
fun for me. But John, let's talk about that game.
I think this is an interesting one because Art to
Caesar sent me the list. Let me reread the list
just in case you missed it, and also our audience
members that are joining late, because I do think some
of this information can be pertinent. He said they were
gonna need Clemson to cover, South Florida, to cover, Rice
to cover, and Michigan to cover. Yet Michigan is also
public along with Syracuse. Michigan State in Illinois, and I thought,
you know, I feel like USF is the dog with fleas.
Last Thursday night, we all sat there opening week of
college football. Yeah, I know there's week zero, but you
get the idea. Everybody is glued to the TV and
what do we watch. We watch u SF throttle Boise State,
the team that everybody thought was going to get into
the College football Playoff almost automatic, get that bid. I
think USF is getting a little too much love here.
I know Florida played l I you last weekend and
they rested most of their players in the second half.
They have fresh legs, and this is a USF team.
I was telling sammyp yesterday on bet Sweats. I went
and watched in twenty twenty two with my dad in
USF kept it within a touchdown up until late. I mean,
Florida Gators fans were losing their mind. That was Billy
Napier's first season. I think he's gonna want to make
a big impression here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm on the same page with you.
I did get a little bit excited when I saw
your you quote tweet the Biden Brown missing the first half.
I was a little bit excited about that I did
do a little bit of side research. I wasn't playing
cards with my dad, so had a little bit of
time there, and unfortunately it proved to be a false narrative.
But you know, looking at USF game against Boise State,
I thought they got a little bit lucky with the
way Boise State played, especially in the red zone, kind
of getting not getting, but kind of giving away turnovers.
It wasn't necessarily that USF the Bulls were forcing turnovers.
I thought Boise State played a sloppy game. It proved
to be that Genti was obviously a big miss. The
running backs really didn't carry the torch that he had
last year. So I'm not as impressed with that win
against Boise State. And I really think that this Florida
defense is going to cause fits for that Bulls offense.
So I'm on the same page with you. I think
the Bulls are getting a little bit too much love here,
and I would be laying the points, and I do
like actually laying the points early. Florida get out ahead early.
Let's you know, USF might come in.
Speaker 1: A lot bit the first half minus ten kind of thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, first half minus ten. Let them get out early.
I think USF may be you know, punched in the
mouth a little bit by the talent that the Florida
Gators have on the rosters. So don't let them get
any you know, late garbage points touchdowns late in the game.
We've all we've all seen that, we see that in
NFL with the you know, the witching hours. So don't
get those late garbage points headed your way and and
maybe cash the minus ten first half.
Speaker 1: All right, here's a game that I am on. One
dog tellmas Lynch says, I like it is Kansas plus
six over Miszoo. I got the six and a half
in pocket. And then I was on my computer Sean
this morning and I was watching a show and I
normally don't but I was like getting ready. It was
on in the background and I look over and it
says Kansas, Kansas, Kansas, and I was like, shit, is
this the dog with fleas. I know I shouldn't overreact
and I shouldn't overthink because I bet this early, like
I bet this Tuesday, and I gave it out as
my barking dog on bet on it. Talk to me
about Kansas, Missoo. I know that you have an opinion
on one of the sides.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, uh, it's always nice when somebody like
Kelly bets on Kansas. It's you know, giving us a
little bit of a window into you know, unbiased picks
obviously with the Kansas State fandom. But I'm kind of
on the on the same page with you with this.
I really like this Kansas offense led by Jalen Daniels,
who had a really good uh first week against Presno State,
going eighteen for twenty, you know, a small amount of
yards with one to seventy six, but still had three touchdowns,
no interceptions. I believe it was two pass deflections, which
I always like, you know, keeping it out of the
defensive hands kind of thing. And he's also good with
his legs. He's a dual threat type of type of runner.
And then on top of that, we've all we've all
seen it, whether it be the NFL or college, when
when you have a one wide receiver that the quarterback
falls in love with, they tend to stare him down
the defense and kind of lock onto that watch the
quarterback's eyes. And we saw Jalen Daniels move the ball
around over the over the first two weeks with Cam
Pick catching six passes for seventy seven yards and two
touchdowns against President State. But then Emmanuel Henderson caught six
passes for one hundred and thirty yards and two touchdowns
against Wagner, So he's obviously not staring down defenders. But
the one thing that kind of gets me a little
bit scared about the side is the Missouri offense and
the quarterback over there. Bo Probola probably butchered that name,
but he's also a little bit of a dual threat
type of quarterback that can, you know, make hurt defenses
if they get kind of locked into man demand have
their back turned around to the quarterback. So I'm actually
going to stay away from the side. I really like
the Kansas team total over twenty one and a half,
I think that's a little bit low. I really like
the quarterback at Kansas, Jalen Daniels, and I think even
if we get late in the game with Missouri up
by two scores, you know we're going to see Jayalen
Daniels kind of slinging the ball around. And I think
you know, talked about it in previous games or in
the previous matchup, but we can get a garbage type
touchdown to get us over this twenty one and a half.
So I'm gonna stay away from the side. I do
like the barking dog. If I was going to play aside,
it would be Kansas here. But I'm gonna lay on
the team total over twenty one and a half with Kansas.
Speaker 1: All right, Sean, really quickly. I know that you've been
on wager Talk a long time. You've really been our
pony guy, if you will. I know you've done a
lot of stuff with me and Marco in regards to
the Breeders Cup and of course Kentucky Derby, Belmont Preetness
and stuff. But I think we need to introduce you
to our audience a little bit more at College Football Handicapper.
You are just on the blitz this last week there
with Brian Power. Can you let everybody know what special
you have up at wager talk dot com right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you can get my entire college football all
the way through the bowl game and weeks for four
hundred and ninety nine dollars, no coupon needed, and you're
gonna get all of my horse racing selections. What I
do with wager Talk with my horse racing is I
give you full card selections. I give you wagers along
the lines of exact as, pick threes, pick fives, and
win plays more of the suggested wagers. There's so much
in horse racing as far as the board goes on
what you can bet. Exact as trifect is trying to
scoop the pool with the pick six. So I give
you my opinions on every race within the cards kind
of let you know your opinions matter a little bit
as well. Keep my suggested wagers a little bit lower
so you can add your opinions into the wagers. And
if you just take my top pick selections, I've got
an eighteen percent top selection winners dating back to February
twenty eighth. I know that sounds low in the sports
betting world, but that's a thirteen percent ROI so making
money on those when you're not when you're getting plus
odds on a lot of the horses that I'm putting
on my top pick selections. So those full card selections,
I'm generally doing two tracks per week Friday through Sunday.
It's always going to include Southern California racing. Born and
raised in San Diego, so It's kind of where I've
always cut my teeth. I used to own horses on
the Southern California circuit, so I feel like I've got
a little bit of a pulse on the jockeys and
the trainers, and then it's always going to include, you know,
another track across the country that has big stakes type races.
So I'm gonna pivot with Churchill Downs next week. They've
got the Claiming Cup races coming up Big Stakes weekend.
I'm also gonna have Keenland, which has Breeders Cup winning
your in races, and then it's also gonna include Breeders
Cup on both days, So get that. Get my college
football picks. I started off the season five and zero
up fifteen units, so get that. Let's keep up the momentum,
and then you get my horse racing picks for free.
Speaker 1: I love that there's a lot of new members in
the comment section. Shout out to you guys for hanging
out with here at wager Talk. This is last call
if you are new here where we take you guys
up until kickoff Saturday Sundays and now Thursdays if there
is a Friday slative games, and of course Mondays so
it is going to be action packed football season here
over at wager talk dot com. Sean, one of the
games on your list I think is really interesting that
was not on my radar is Houston Rice.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: I know you guys might not want me to talk
about Houston at Rice because there's not There's maybe more
attractive games on the board, and we'll get to those
here in a minute. But I want to know your
method to your madness here, Kelly, you brush your hair today,
and actually, in fact, I did not brush my hair today.
That's why it looks like this, Like I sware. These
are the kind of comments like it. I love it.
I love it, but I did do my makeup. You
guys are welcome. I am at my dad's house. We
had too much fun last night doing a little bit
of gambling, and then we got some yardwork to do
before college football kicks off. Jokes on you guys, I'm
not doing it. Sean Alvarez, breakdown Houston at Rice for me,
because this is a game that you know, they Rice
just one outright in and an interesting scenario. And here's
a Houston team in the Big twelve that has just
not fared well. They're kind of going through these growing
pains moving to a bigger conference. Talk to me about
this one and why it's on your radar.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's definitely more attractive games on the
full slay of college football that we have today. But
like Gianni said in the previous segment, you know, money
spends the same way as far as winning bets. So
I really like this Rice side at plus fourteen. We
look at the total, the total is only thirty nine
and a half. Yet Rice is getting two touchdowns on
the line, and like you mentioned that just coming off
beating Louisiana Lafayette fourteen to twelve as a ten point
underdog last week. And this is a Rice team that
is implementing a new offense this year, running the triple auction.
And with the triple auctions, there's a couple of things
that really kind of stick out to me. Is first
and foremost we've seen it on you know, more of
the you know Army or Navy type games where the
total stays low because the clock just keeps running as
they keep running the football. And that's what Luisa or
not Louisian Lafayette, that's what Rice is gonna do. They
ran for two hundred and six yards on the ground.
Last week, Chase Jenkins only threw the ball nine times
for forty five yards, and one of those was about
a twenty yard chunk play where it seemed like he
just threw it up in the air and the receiver
just you know, happened to come down underneath it. So
this is a Rice football team that is really not
gonna throw the ball even when they're behind the sticks.
They're running the triple option, and you know, that's not
only a physically taxing offense to cover, it's also a
mentally taxing offense to try and defend for Houston. So
I really like the plus fourteen. And then the other
thing about that is, you know, if you look at
the possession last week, Rice had the ball for thirty
six and a half minutes. I think that's gonna be
very similar to what we see this week in the
Houston offense. Isn't the type of offense that you know
is gonna chuck the ball all over the place. They're
gonna run the football as well. So, like I had
mentioned early, we see a very low total, yet we
see Rice getting fourteen points. So I'm gonna take that
take the points with Rice in this matchup.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see Steve Merril's we were waiting in
the wings. We'll get to him here in a few minutes.
He just popped on. If you guys have a question
for Sean, drop it in the chat and we'll get
you guys some questions answered here Sean. Look, bottom line,
this game's kicking off here soon, So I'm gonna go
ahead and sek you. I know it's on your premium card,
and you know we got to break the rules here
on last call because it is what it is. I
asked VR about this. I am on Yukon plus six
and a half. I did my job. I saw five
and a half on the Odds logic screen, and then
I woke up this morning and there was a seven
and then there was a seven and a half at
hard Rock and I was panicked. Before we logged on,
I was asking Louis. I said, Louis, can you look?
Can you ask around? Is there an injury? What did
I miss? Talk to me about this line move and
talk to me about who you like in the Yukon
Syracuse side.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 1: I know it's a premium selection, but we're going to
break the rules.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I was actually really impressed with the way
Steve Angelly, the quarterback for Syracuse, played last week against Tennessee.
The Tennessee defense is much more stout and has a
lot more talent than this Yukon defense is gonna, you know,
put in front of Steve Angelly this week, so I
kind of liked that. I didn't like the way that
Yukon defended the run last week. They gave up one
hundred and twenty eight yards on the ground to a
Central Connecticut team, and Syracuse can absolutely pound the ball
on offense with a better offensive line, and again they're
going to face off against a much less talented team
in Yukon. So I'm not as impressed with the way
that Yukon played last week. I liked that Steven Jelly
kind of you know, jumped up being you know, transferred
from Notre Dame last last in the summer from last season,
and we saw him throw the ball forty times against Tennessee.
But they were down in the game, they were trying
to get back in the game edge their way in.
So I think that Syracuse is going to do a
lot better job on the ground after averaging just two
point three yards per carry again against the stout Tennessee team.
I think Syracuse focuses on running the ball a little
bit more, hopefully not playing from behind as much. I
laid the seven early in the Earlier in the week,
I would have liked the six and a half, but
unfortunately it moved after I put it out. But I
expect a big game from Steve Angelly, and I think
that we're going to see a little bit of a
regression from yukon playing a more talented team than Central
Connecticut last week.
Speaker 1: All Right, me and Sean head to ahead, going right
here at noon eastern, right out of the gate. Okay,
let's see if there's any more questions in the chat.
Sean also does some baseball handicapping. I know you guys
were asking some baseball questions earlier. Jean, do you have
anything up today? A wager talk for baseball?
Speaker 3: I don't yet. I was doing a lot of prep
work for this show, so I who will be the
next thing I do as soon as we get off
diving into that slate and getting something up. But I
definitely will.
Speaker 1: Rob says he's coming over and needs a cash some
tickets to help his headache. Good luck Rob. Hopefully we
start getting some of those tickets cash. All right, here's
a game that I'm on, Sean. I am on the
Kentucky Wildscats. Another weird line move, right, So when all
the way down we saw some seven and a half's
popping up. Now it's back up to nine and a half,
so we're seeing some two way action. As VR likes
to talk, I like Kentucky here at home. I made
a pretty compelling case on wager Talk today to say, hey, listen,
I don't trust gate Lane Kippen early in the season
one in four straight up zero to five against the
spread and his sec openers. Yes, everybody's gonna make a
big deal that Kentucky won the game last year in
Oxford and revenge is on their minds, but we all
know as handicappers those things are not quantifiable. So Sean,
I want to get your opinion here. One of my
good friends I tweeted this morning Todd at Todd Furman.
He said, who is the dog of seven points or
more that wins out today? And I said Kentucky. And
I'm getting a lot of hate on social media.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Unfortunately, it looks like, this is a game that
we're going to go head to head on as well.
I really liked what Austin Simmons did the quarterback at
All Miss. Again, he can sling the ball all over
the field, but he's also a dual threat with his
legs and you know, like I mentioned earlier, I always
liked when quarterbacks have a little bit of a dual threat,
but they're not necessarily going to get you know, QB runs.
But you know, we look at the way that defenses play,
especially in college, you see a lot of man to man,
especially late in the chains on long third downs. If
they turn their back to Austin Simmons, he's going to
take off and pick up twenty to thirty yards before
they ever turn around. So I really like what he's doing.
I like the offense at Ole Miss. What I'm not
sold about is the seventh year quarterback Zach Calzada at Kentucky.
He played a week Toledo team last week and was
only able to manage ten for twenty three eighty seven
yards three point seven yards per on average. I'm just
not sold on Zach Calzada. I think he sees a
tougher Old Miss team and I think it could be
a long day for him in the Kentucky Wildcats. I
definitely am against you on them winning outright, and I
would lay. Last time I saw it was a minus ten.
I believe on old Miss I would lay that as well.
It didn't make my card, but if I'm betting that game,
I'm sticking to the old Miss side. So unfortunately, we're
going head to head on at least two games right now.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, that's not a good way to start
a Sean's debut here. On last call, put that back
in there, Louis, I wanted to do the promo for
Sean one more time before I kicked him out of here.
College Football and Horse Racing four ninety nine. Right now,
Wagertalk dot Com, Sean WT dot Buzz backslash SA is
your short link, so you guys can see him over there.
Sean's gonna hang out. He'll answer some of your guys'
questions here on the YouTube channel and or kick and
or twitch and or x we're broadcasting all over the place.
We've got almost four thousand people watching live, So thank
you Sean for coming on today. And if you guys
missed his episode of the Blitz. You guys can check
that out there on the wager Talk YouTube channel. And
we've got about we're gonna call it twenty minutes until
kickoff a little bit longer than that, but we're not
gonna go quite up until because I got a couple
more bets I want to put in. I want to
put in some of those plays from Art this Caesar
as well as VR that they agreed on. But we're
gonna bring Steve Merrill. He's gonna take us home here. Hey, Steve,
good morning. Appreciate you just jumping and saying, Hey, if
you need a third person for last call without Art,
I will do it. So I'm gonna go into this
question first only because it's kicking off here soon and
you live in Virginia. So talk to me about UVA
n C State. Chris Thurston Textan this morning he was
happy he got n C State minus two and a
half Art and Caesar told us that was a sharp side.
Talk to me about this football game. I know it's
not super riveting, guys, but we can only talk about
Michigan oaklhol home of so many damn times.
Speaker 4: That's right, And by the way, thank you for the
shirt Kelly's shirtsy, Look, that's great. Steve Maryland's cover of
the w we put the swish on the wrong side.
Speaker 1: I didn't put the swish. Nike put the swish on
the rock.
Speaker 4: Look at that, and I think we're representing Nike more
than Wager Talk here. But it's a nice shirt. Nonetheless,
I'm okay with it if we got it on the sleeve. Ye,
trying to figure out how to use this what I
was doing the.
Speaker 1: Show.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you usuld be flex Tuesday with sheer Pan and
the pres. And that got that got canceled. What a surprise. Hey,
Speaking of which, the pres will be flexing all Sunday tomorrow.
He did ask me to do the debut. I'm not
gonna be in the office during the afternoon. That's not
why I'm not doing the first ever live red Zone
end Zone knockoff whatever we're calling it. But it's probably
for the best. They can get all out of hands
in market.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be called end Zone Live. Look, here's what happened.
So we we get President off wager Talk. Today. President
is doing all the press things as one of the
owners of wager Talking. He goes skiing too much, and
he's playing poker too much. He's got kids, and he's
got all of these other things. And I said, pres
you have paid your dues. You've done wager Talk Today
for so long. You and Teddy, why don't we find
out something else for football season. So he's actually doing
the best betting show ever with Joe Vernieri and Art
to Caesar out Mondays or Tuesdays, because again it's the press,
so it's a little flexible. They're on the wager Talk
YouTube channel and they go through their entire college football
and NFL slate and then we said, on Sundays, I
think this will be great for you. This is Johnny
Detroit's idea. We're just gonna tell him to turn on
the camera and then they watch the football games. The
kids are all doing and present is really entertaining and
frankly kind of crazy. So I think we're gonna get
some really great reactions out of there. Steve and I
did promise that I would join from time to time,
particularly if you know, I'll pop on if I'm sweating
a Survivor pick or something late on Sundays. That's the
beauty of the show. We're gonna let people pop in
and off depending on when they're available. Right, it's a
whole It's a three hour show for the first slate
of games from one to four Eastern, so you're gonna
see all sorts of people on that one. But good
plug by Steve Merril.
Speaker 4: Yeah you hedged. You hedge the craziness a little bit
because Andy lang is in the co pilot seat. So
that's your hedge. I know you liked the hedge.
Speaker 1: It's called balance. Look at us, all right, guys, if
you have a question for Steve Okay, Thomas Lynch, Baylor
SMU kicking off here in eighteen minutes or so. Steve, Look,
I had a bunch of buddies. They liked Baylor. Last week.
We ended up putting Baylor in a couple of our
Westgate College Football contest, and I said, you know, the
whole world loves Baylor, and this line's not moving. I
didn't think it was gonna be that bad, but that
was not a good result. Auburn dominated both sides of
the ball pretty much for four quarters. There. Now here's
an SMU team that I think it has been really
impressive over the past few season with Rhett Lashley, and
I think he's done a really good job there in
I guess it's Fort Worth, Dallas Fort Worth area. But
here's my question. Is this a good by low spot
on the Baylor Bears for today or have we just
got to the point where there's just a lot of
hype focus on this team. I know a lot of
people bet they're over to seven and a half wins,
and a lot of people thought Phil Steele even thought
they could win the Big twelve.
Speaker 4: So it's interesting he asked me about two noon kickoffs
here and they're both minus three. N C State over
Virginia and SMU over Baylor, both the three point favorites.
We know that's such a key number. And I run
ten thousand game simulation for every FBS game on the
board each week, and guess what. My simulation in both
games had the favorite winning by exactly five point seven points,
five point seven exact. So I do think there's some
line value with both Virginia and with SMU in these
early kickoffs. Both NC State and Virginia easy wins last week.
I usually like the momentum to remain for the home
team in that situation, and then in this case, the
Baylor SMU game. We've got obviously SMU as a slight
favorite coming off the dominant win against East Texas A
and M, not Texas A and M East Texas A
and M, while Baylor lost to Auburn. I liked Baylor
last Friday night. That was really the only best bet
I got wrong in Week one. I had a lot
of close love losses, half point losses, big favorites. It
gave up zero and six points but didn't cover. But
the one I got wrong I felt was Baylor, And
that's always a red flag for me when a team
underperforms what I thought was in a good spot. So
I think there could be a little bit of a
regression by Baylor this week as well. I like SMU
at minus three or less. Also like NC State minus
three or less. Those both going about twenty minutes.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, we've got about seventeen minutes to kick off.
One of the things I didn't have loaded because I
wasn't planning any coming to the show as any special
that you had going on right now over on the
wager Talk YouTube channel, you can check out your fade
the public video.
Speaker 3: What else do you have.
Speaker 1: Going on over there?
Speaker 4: Yeah, did the Fad the Public video late last night
on Friday, So Chris Allen's going to get it posted
this afternoon. We'll probably get it up each Saturday afternoon.
The college football Top twenty five video goes up either
Thursday night Friday afternoons each week as well, and last
week we had three head to head Top ten matchups
Top ten matchups three of them. This week there's only
one Top twenty five matchup on the whole card, Michigan Oklahoma.
So it's basically a solo video. I threw in that
Duke Illinois game which starts early here in a few minutes,
is a little bit of a Top forty bonus, but
the Faith the Public Kelly is a big one. Five
sides and then a bonus dog Lean, So six plays
in that Fade the Public video. It'll be up this afternoon.
When you click the bell, when you subscribe here to
Wait to Talk TV, you get an instant alert and
you never miss out on the free play videos. And
if you want to touch on some of those real quick,
or if you want to touch on the survivors, I
will say this a little teaser alert. The most public
play this week is perhaps the most likely survivor pick
as well, for what it's worth.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know, and guess who has every single one
of the plays as Denver Broncos. I did to Philly
the other night, and I just you go unloaded on
the Denver Broncos. And if a rookie quarterback is going
to beat me in Week one on the road, Steve in.
Speaker 2: Altitude, so be so being steam Merril, what do you
want from me.
Speaker 1: At this point?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, I think you mentioned this stat because I've
seen it too. Bnix was eight and oh last year
as a favorite right straight up and against the spread,
and all eight of those wins were by double digits
last year, So you know, it does seem too obvious.
But that was actually one of the few games in
which I did not disagree with the public this week.
You know, we don't just blindly fade the public. We
use it as a filter. I want nothing to do
with Tennessee rookie quarterback cam Ward. They probably not even
the best player in the draft, but he was the
best quarterback, so he goes number one overall. Very difficult spot.
You know, our friend Mark Lawrence does a great job.
I was looking through the annual this summer. Tennessee had
a very interesting stat Last year they were one of
the top one of the bottom three scoring defenses most
points allowed, but they were one of the top three
and fewest yards allowed, and that hadn't happened since like
nineteen sixty or something. So you know, maybe there's some
upside with that defense this year. But I think, as
you said, it's a very difficult spot on the road
in Week one for a young quarterback. Here's the thing.
You don't play Tennessee and the survivor. What I recommend
doing is just staying away from these top one or
two games. Hope you catch lightning and that maybe one
of them gets knocked off. We had a chance with
that with Dallas. I like Dallas on Thursday night, and
Philly at minus eight obviously was a big survivor, and
had that happen, you could have loaded up with more
picks for survivors.
Speaker 1: Phil I had Dallas plus eight and a half in pocket.
I said, if Philly loses this game, I got a nice,
you know, sizeable middle here. I also tease the crap
out of Philly. Of course I did, even after Teddy
told me not to. I did and I said, here's
here's the real reality with this game. If they lose,
I will just rebuy. Those were cheap survivor entries. The
West Gate at five k is not a cheap survivor
entry in Vegas right now. To be able to have
the opportunity to rebind, there was I believe twenty eight
people that used the Eagles in that contest. Just a
little over one hundred people signed up for the Westgates,
so wow, that's just good.
Speaker 4: So twenty eight percent would have been out and most
of them would have had trouble reupping as well. At
least half of them probably aren't.
Speaker 1: Listen, there are very few people who are going to
re up for five grand after just getting punched in
the mouth like that Open Night.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's what you want. Though you didn't get
hurt by but it would have been a huge boost,
right you will had a twenty eight percent of vantage
boom instantly doing nothing and Dallan boy was and by
the way, Kelly, the best in game betting opportunity we've
ever seen in our lifetime. We could maybe take advantage
of it again, would have been the in game under
after that lightning break, the forty five minute break. Now,
I will say it worked because it was so high score,
and you know, all they focused on was defense. Had
it been a lower scoring game, maybe it's different. But
if we ever get an opportunity in college or pro
football again where we have a shootout and we get
a one hour delay like that, slam the under, it
makes so much sense. The adjustments were made, and it
was night and day. Nine touchdowns and field goals in
a fumble and then five punts after the break. I mean,
it couldn't be more any more extreme than that.
Speaker 1: It was absolutely extreme. Hey, you know what else is extreme?
We have over four thousand people watching live.
Speaker 4: Man, that's extreme.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 4: I'm so your favorite eighties rock group.
Speaker 2: Extreme.
Speaker 1: We are so close to two hundred and sixteen thousand
subscribers here on the Wager Talking YouTube channel. Please give
us the thumbs up. Hit that bell, like Steve Merrill
likes to say, so you never miss anything else. See
maryl I'm gonna give you the floor. You got ninety seconds.
Anything else you'd like to talk about here on the
show before.
Speaker 4: We get out of here, I'm gonna do the old
like you know, flavor Flavor Chuck d when it was
like love pain, We're gonna do smash bell? How much
was Wayger talk favorite of tattoo my knuckles and take
a lot not a knuckle tattoo. Smash the bell. We
don't just hit the bell, we smash it. But yes, seriously,
the fad the public video will be up soon. I
got a lot of free play videos. I did that
Kentucky Old Miss game. I won't tell you if I
agreed or disagree with you. I agreed with one of you,
you would im r on opposite sides. I agreed with
one of you in that one, but some line move
on that around that key number of ten. Check out
the Old Miss Kentucky video. Also your late night special
Sam Houston, Hawaii, the eleven fifty nine Eastern don't dare
say Sunday Morning college Football. That game is up here
as well. Also got some baseball up there today. It's
a huge card. Five college football best bets, two baseball
best bets, and of course we will have some NFL.
I'll give you a free baseball playing the Way Out.
It just posted this a minute or two ago. Brewers
minus a dollar thirty five over the Pirates Woodriff over killer.
I think we get the much better team, the better
pitcher at a fairly cheap price. Here take a look
at the Brewers minus one thirty five, so we can
say we covered some baseball today as well.
Speaker 1: They go baseball nerds. You guys got it just from
Steve Merril. VR gave you guys some baseball. Sean told
you to head back over to wager talking with post
a free play on the diamond for you. I know,
I know money all spends the same, but I'd rather
bet rush and table tennis Thana. It is so frustrating
that being said. Thank you to Steve Merrill, thank you
to Sean Alvas, thank you to VR for everybody hanging
out here. And thank you to our hungover producer Louis
who is gonna just kill me. It's week two and
he's already ready to kill me this Saturday morning. He'll
be back tomorrow. Ariel Epstein here talking NFL, and of
course Monday before kickoff, Joe Madden is going to take
you guys up. Until then, we got a nice Viking
Bears game speak going to fade the public. This one's
gonna be real fun. Let's see if we can fade
some narrative. Steve Merrill at Steve Merril two Ours one L.
Steve is the best. Thank you for coming in super
last minute. Thank you to all of you guys there
at home. Good luck this week and let's cash the
tickets