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Speaker 1: Welcome everybody, the best betting show ever. I am Lawrence President.

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That is the Lady is Friday, NFL on Sunday, We're

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gonna do a deep dive. We're gonna find out where

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the money is going. We're also gonna look at every

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single NHL game on the board. Same with NBA. We

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got some college basketball coming your way, our parlay of

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the day, and we're gonna do a deep dive into

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three NFL beats, one from me, one from Joe, one

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from Steve Merrill. Art deseaser up now, Steve Merrill coming later. Joe.

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I don't think i've seen you in white looking good?

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You sexy devil?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well yeah that's I could have done without that,

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but yeah, no, pretty much wear white a lot.

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Speaker 4: Press. I'm glad you noticed.

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Speaker 3: Very Yes, the surroundings that you the things you notice,

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very impressive, good stuff.

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Speaker 1: But if you wear white a lot, it's almost like

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the things I don't notice because I only noticed today.

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What's up? Art to Caesar, I want you can we

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can we let your hair down one time on this show.

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Speaker 2: Sure when you show up on time.

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Speaker 1: No, there we go love that Mike drop sexy devil. Wow,

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it is so good, Joe, what are we getting my

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handlebar picture up and ready? I'm game, dude. I like

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when people make fun of me.

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Speaker 3: We might go Tom Selleck a little bit later in

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the show when Merrill gets here.

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Speaker 1: Yes, okay, okay, Art, let's talk NFL. Look, we bought

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four and a halves mostly across the board in New England.

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Total hasn't changed in yesterday forty two and a half.

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We got minus two and a half, with Seattle total

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coming down a bit in the RAMS game to the

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under what's going on over at the West Gate?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as far as you know, the information

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that gave out yesterday, there's really no I mean, we've

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been four and a half on New England or totals

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shot up two points from the opener forty and a half.

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Obviously you mentioned the Seattle total which dropped down, and

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I believe when we were on air yesterday we had

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already hit forty six and a half. We opened forty

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seven and a half. Seattle's been two and a half.

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I think that's gonna be the booking number. I really

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don't see it moving to three. I just think when

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you're getting enough action, you know, I did mention that

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we have four to one ticket account on Seattle, and

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some one of the comments had made it comment about that.

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You gotta remember, it doesn't mean that we can't be

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close to being balanced on the money. We just might

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be taking a lot of smaller tickets on Seattle, So

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you know, ticket account sometimes can be a little deceiving.

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But I think two and a half is gonna be

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where we're at, and I think the New England game,

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unless we get overwhelmed by public money, maybe we have

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a couple of house players come in and drop some

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big money on New England money line, or you know,

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they lay.

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Speaker 1: The four and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think we're gonna be pretty steady there as well.

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I don't see these number is budgeting that much more so.

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Speaker 4: What you see is what you get. I can tell

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you art.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what kind of traffic you're getting and

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handle you're getting so far, but I have seen props

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in these games move a lot. I mean it's I've

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seen the passing yard it's props move. I mean Jared

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Stidham went for I think one ninety and a half.

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Now he's almost close to two hundred total passing yards

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in the in the market. So usually when we're stuck

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at it is what you're going to get, right. How

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much fluctuation in the prop betting market do you usually see?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean you know that obviously is going

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to correlate with the total going up in that game.

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I mean that totally moved two points. So people think

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there's gonna be some offense in the game. So you

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would think that some props we've bet over. We always

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say it though. We get to a certain point with

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some of these props where we see the sharp guys

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just coming and blindly take all unders, and we'll probably

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see that. We have a really good prop guy who

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bets on Saturdays, and you know, our props have been

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up for days, but he waits till Saturday to bet,

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and a lot of times he comes in and he

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fires four or five props on every game, and then

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we always try to book to his action and he

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always takes under, So be interesting to see what he

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does on those. Public's gonna be very invested in doing

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the anytime touchdown parlays. That's like their favorite thing in

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the world to do. They love to bet the first

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touchdown score. We have squares up like we would for

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the Super Bowl, you know, so we're trying to do that.

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We're trying to add a lot more for Conference championship. Listen,

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it's gonna be a big handle weekend.

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Speaker 1: M All right to see is enjoining us live from

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the West Gate? Is the Westgate doing? Does it do

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anything special or anything for any of these events? So

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you're gonna be serving free coffee anything going on?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if you're sitting at a seat and

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you talk to cocktail wait or some I'm sure they

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can get you a cup of coffee.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Is a whole different deal. You know, you got the theater,

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and you got all the promotions, and we put out

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the big Game prop with packet which we do which

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you know it's basically like a mini contest. So we're

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able to talk about that a lot more as we

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approach the Super Bowl. So yeah, I mean, we're gonna

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have a lot of stuff going on.

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Speaker 3: So we're trying to get the free cocktail when he's art.

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You know how that is? Man, A couple of pigs

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in a blanket and nice free decaf coffee.

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Speaker 4: That's what we're talking about here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, talking about pigs in a blanket. I am in

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the province of Ontario and it is the coldest place

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on Earth today, on Earth, it is minus fifty.

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Speaker 5: Think.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so that's that's what's going on over here.

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Speaker 3: Can't be good for your ball rot there, pres right.

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I mean they just got to be crawling right up.

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I mean, I can't be good at all.

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Speaker 4: That comes a video. I didn't know what did I say.

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I didn't do any what video. I was just making

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a comment.

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Speaker 3: You were complaining about your ball rot, and I'm just

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saying minus fifty can't be good.

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Speaker 1: Heart, No, no, no, no. It's also not good for

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an electric car art. There's a bunch of NHL games

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eight today. We got some NBA and some college basketball

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full plate to NBA games as well. Eight two. Any

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bets we need to know about, any moves we need

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to know about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the NHL, we took some Golden Knight money. We

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took some Ranger money. In the NBA. We took under

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money in the Kings and Cavs game under two thirty five.

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They laid four and a half with the Grizzly and

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then college I'll run through someone. As I was telling Joe,

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it's always the lower end stuff. They laid fourteen with

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Austin p they took plus one with Charleston Southern, they

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laid five and a half with Southern Indiana, and then

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they took the under in the Austin p game under

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one forty nine and a half. Took the under one

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in the Appellation State game. And I told people, because

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they were in the comments asking about it, some UFC stuff.

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Three underdogs that Sharps took. They took Song You Dong

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plus two hundred, he took the Kita kryl Off plus

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one sixty. They took Alex Perez plus one sixty. And

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that's from our sharp UFC guy who doesn't really bet

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a lot of sports other than the UFC, so when

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UFC comes around, he likes to put some sharp stuff in.

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We like to book to his actions. So those three

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of his plays all underdogs.

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Speaker 3: By the way, Art you also mentioned it too. I mean,

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because of the weather that Prez is affecting around the

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rest of this country affect you to me, we got

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a lot of early games coming up here this week.

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We got a ton of game. When does it start

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rolling in for you? Do you advise people get ahead

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of it, wait until the more. What's the best way

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to approach it?

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Speaker 2: You think, well, I mean, we have two schools of

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thoughts when it comes to our sharp college basketball guys.

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There are plenty of guys who bet overnight, but once again,

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overnight limits ron't as big as they're going to be

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in the morning. Some guys just like to bet, bet

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their opinions, bet the moves, bet the way they see

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the market if they think numbers are off on overnight lines.

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But then once you know, we get cooking in the morning,

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you just see the screen light up and blow up

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for yeah, for hours. So there are definitely two schools

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to thought on that. You mentioned all these games that

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are gonna be in the morning. I mean, we're gonna

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be dealing with, you know, twenty five thirty thirty five

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half times in some spots, you know.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna be a lot.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be making very difficult to book those games.

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But that's the challenge and it makes it a lot

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of fun.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 1: The caezear joining us. We got Steve Merrill still to come.

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Lots of betting information on your way. Shout out to

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all of you guys who commented in the comment section

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after the show yesterday. I read them all so much fun.

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Hit that like button. Subscribe to our.

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Speaker 3: Ark.

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Speaker 1: We gotta keep moving. You're a busy man. I'll go

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to you first. We do a four team round robin

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of the day now, well only on Thursdays and Fridays.

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Why don't you go first? What's your leg?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: If we're gonna keep it in the NFL, here, I'm

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gonna do a anytime touchdown. Oo give me DeVante Adams

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plus one ten to score a touchdown.

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Speaker 4: Nice, there you go.

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Speaker 1: Okay on me. I'm gonna go with under forty two

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and a half in the New England Denver game.

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Speaker 3: Joe, all right, Prez, I am gonna go with a

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prop as well. I'm gonna take Kenneth Walker the third under.

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Speaker 4: And it looks like this line keeps cleave, keeps climbing.

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Speaker 3: Rather, what do we got eighty six and a half

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eighty seven and a half yards rushing against the Rams.

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I think they're gonna force him to do what other

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teams would like to do, and that's make Sam Donald

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beat you. So Kenneth Walker under his rushing yards at

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whatever number you can get eighty six and a half,

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eighty seven and a half, whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, I love that, Bet. I take it down

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to eighty four and a half. I think that's a

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massive number. And I know that there's only one running back,

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but there really isn't Joe. There are other running backs

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and he's not going to get one hundred snaps, so

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one hundred percent of the snaps. But Steve Merrill will

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add his fourth leg shortly. Art the Caesar, thanks for

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doing this, brother, I hope you have a wonderful weekend.

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Kick ass Yes, enjoy, enjoy and I agree, by the way,

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with that Vegas Golden Knight's line move, even though they're

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against Gratto. Well that's Art the Caesar and now we

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move to Steve Merril. Steve Merril, welcome to the show.

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We're right in the middle of our parlay of the

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Day segment. What is leg number four?

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Speaker 5: So if you look at career stature Jared Stin on

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the backup quarterback for Denver, they're very similar to Bownecks

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qb Radi almost identically actually averages a yard for pass more.

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I'm gonna look at him to have a decent passing game.

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Here over two hundred passing yards. Bo Nix has thrown

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for over two hundred and six of his last eight games.

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Roncos were throwing the ball a little bit more, and

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if Denver's behind as a home underdog, they get up

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and over as well, stin them over two hundred yards

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passing for the game.

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Speaker 1: Yes, there we go, Joe, that's our four team parlay

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all NFL. Steve, how did you do last night?

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Speaker 4: Life?

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Speaker 1: Good?

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Speaker 5: Life is good man. I went to the one Mary game,

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saw them lead by twenty, never trail and win, and

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yet it was at four point game late, so it

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felt like a narrow victory. And then they play Hofster tomorrow.

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We missed. I missed that as my parlay picking. I

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told you Hofster was off back to back losses. Shocked.

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They lost outright against A and T yesterday North Carolina

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A and T. Joe, I don't know if that's a

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good or bad thing for Willy and Mary tomorrow because

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now they're coming off three straight losses, but obviously they're beatable,

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so very interesting game. They moved it to noon eastern tomorrow.

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An alert for the viewers out there. A lot of

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games tomorrow got moved up early because of the East

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coast snow that's coming. So that could also cause a

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little bit of have big hopsters worried about getting back

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to New York. Hopefully that's an advantage.

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Speaker 4: Yep.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was on the Tribe yesterday, Steve Adam on

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the money Line, and yeah, it got a little hairy,

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to say the least.

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Speaker 4: Never in doubt, done.

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Speaker 5: Merrill was there, never in doubt, never in doubt. And

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I'll tell you what, Press. They haven't lost at home

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all year. They barely lost last year. You know, it's

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funny there was only like a couple of thousand there.

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The students are just coming back. It's still a good atmosphere.

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But William Mary lost three in a row last week,

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three road games in six days. It's not about the atmosphere.

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It's not about the weird sight lines. It's just something

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about the familiarity in the travel. I think in these

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mid major conferences and here again. You know, they moved

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the game up to Marcus Hofstter's got to get back

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out of here to Long Island before the snow hits.

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So it'll be interesting to see if that's any kind

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of dynamic there.

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Speaker 1: We go. Okay, guys, we got a lot of show

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left tip to like button subscribed to our channel. We've

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got three NFL back one each, our NBA Rundown, our

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NHL Rundown. Steve Merrill's got a few big college basketball

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bets coming your way. We're going to in the show

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with the mailbox. Let's get into our and let's get

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into what is it? Joe, it's uh.

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Speaker 3: You want me to Okay, I didn't realize where we're

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going to go that wrap, But as long as you're

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you're gonna do it, I'll bring it up.

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Speaker 4: Because Merrill looks forward to this. There it is, there

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it is.

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Speaker 1: I look so good, I look so at all.

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Speaker 5: If that's business in the front, I can't imagine what

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one of the back looks like.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's funny, Joe, I got another. I got another

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picture of the year before wearing something like that. I

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gotta get you all of these pictures.

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Speaker 3: You have a lot, you know, you do it just

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like the one providing you with them.

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Speaker 5: That's just I love it.

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Speaker 3: Not afraid I'm not finding these, I'm not searching, I'm

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not taking for them. They Joe under the covers, They

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somehow land in my mailbox.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm going to go through my

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I'm gonna go through my uh catalog, I have one

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of me with a bold camp. I should get you that.

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Speaker 4: Again.

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Speaker 5: Imagine the catalog.

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Speaker 3: No, I cannot not even remotely close the catalog.

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Speaker 1: It's up in the cloud. Joe, I should just give

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you access.

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Speaker 5: Just give me the catalog anyway.

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Speaker 1: I got a huge play an NFL. Wee, so does Joe.

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Joe got five percent play up in the NFL. It's

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been presidentially approved. His five percent play is different to

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my big four percent play different games. Uh, so grab

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them both. I'm going for eight in a row in

308
00:14:53,679 --> 00:14:56,720
my four percent play. Joe's going for eight in a

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row in his five percent play. Yeah. I'm on a

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seven and oh run in four percent bets sixty three

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percent since January first of last year. And this is

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an ATS bet. And I got to tell you, guys,

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sixteen and six on the year in NFL ATS bets.

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It basically does not get much better than that. So

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I have that up. I also have two prop bets

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and a total I got a big NFL card, take

317
00:15:21,559 --> 00:15:24,919
advantage of that, and I'm rolling in college hoops right now.

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When boat last night went on a six and one run.

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I got a college basketball bet up tonight. Two NHL

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plays in one NBA play. That's me, Joe Rinaria. I've

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already talked about your five percent. What do you got going?

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Speaker 3: And then we'll go to Steve two NBA two college

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games as well. Over at the page at wager talk

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dot com. Merril, how is your business?

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Speaker 5: This is in the front end business back?

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Speaker 1: Did you do your NPC oil today?

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Speaker 5: NBA one again? A one again, guys, it's been ten days.

328
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I just looked, there's been ten days since I've missed

329
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an NBA best bet over a week and a half

330
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and not a shock on monster run almost a sixty

331
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five for actually over now sick. It was sixty five

332
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percent the past two months. We went again last night

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with the Spurs. I didn't even realize how good it's been.

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Johnny Detroit, by the way, yesterday threw up an NBA

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special for me on my page. Number one all time

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00:16:20,039 --> 00:16:22,759
NBA sides over like decades. It's number one going back

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00:16:22,799 --> 00:16:24,399
to twenty twenty one. He pulled the stats up for

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00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,679
the last four years or so since I joined wager Talk,

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and it's a discounted price for the rest of the season.

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00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,720
That's on my page right now. Two more NBA Best

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00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,399
bets going tonight, plus a college basketball best bet and

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00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,320
a bonus college basketball play which I'm not giving out

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00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:38,759
here on the show. So go to my page now,

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00:16:38,799 --> 00:16:41,039
get the free play and get three more best bets.

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00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:45,399
Winning continues Steve Merrillwager Talk dot Com, WT dot Buzz slash.

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Speaker 1: Sm Yeah, and I want to add to that real

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00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:53,799
quick about Steve's NBA You know, I told how many

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00:16:53,879 --> 00:16:56,159
times are you going to put that? You already used

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that with art, got up with news, we got up

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with new stuff, we got dig.

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Speaker 3: I got a look at that phrase. It looks like

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he was trying to push his catalogue. That's what it

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looks like there, August.

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Speaker 1: Coming out kind of push the catalog out of my talks.

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Speaker 5: What is that a bunny with golf clubs or swords?

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Speaker 4: And what is that like?

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Speaker 1: Bunny? It's a very large fashion brand. You are not

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a fashion stuff, So.

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Speaker 5: That I like that. I appreciate it, don't know, Yeah, okay,

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I got.

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Speaker 4: What do you got?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Nice? That's that's not a vori like the present is

364
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wearing here though.

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Speaker 5: Ill this is one of the most comfortable hoodies I've

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had though.

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Speaker 1: True Classic, True Classic, and I got your epans going. Guys,

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00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,400
in all seriousness, I've told you all I revamped my

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NBA team about four years ago. Since then, I've not

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had an NBA losing I have not had a losing

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season in n B A. I'm up one hundred units

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00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,920
a profit over that time. And the reason I mentioned

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that is Steve Merrill beats me. Every bloodier like me. Meryll,

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00:18:07,279 --> 00:18:13,440
Marco and Teddy are just constantly dueling or NBA pro

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over wager talk. So yeah, if Steve is rolling an

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NBA right now, take advantage of that special because man, Steve,

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00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,759
your NBA has been exceptional for yours.

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Speaker 5: And what's funny, pres is my favorite part of any sport.

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00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:31,960
Any season has yet to begin. That's the NBA Playoffs.

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I've always said my desert island strategy, if I could

381
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only handicap one game on a desert island, would be

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the NBA Playoffs because it's just consistent year after year,

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the seven game series. The same situations have worked for decades.

384
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So yeah, it's going to get better. The season will continue,

385
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and it's been a great start so far.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was stuck on a desert island and was

387
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only able to handicap one thing. It would be porn.

388
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I would handicap porn.

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Speaker 5: You have a good porn catalog, A big catalog there too.

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00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,680
Speaker 1: Yes, my catalog is incredible. I mean maybe like the

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00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:08,440
Miss Universe contest. I don't think I'm gonna pick a

392
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bunch of dudes in shorts. Whatever could go up my ass.

393
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I'll take what I can get.

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Speaker 5: So good, So glad I wasn't on the screen for

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that conference roll.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, why, Steve, I honestly believe that that

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00:19:29,079 --> 00:19:32,920
video was clipped together. I don't think I.

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00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 5: Say it stacks with AI, now you know that's what

399
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,440
that is. The downside to AI is like all you

400
00:19:37,519 --> 00:19:39,400
got to do now present be like I didn't say that,

401
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,359
you know, and people don't know that's the downside. Well,

402
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,240
we were growing up thirty years ago. You couldn't have

403
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,119
gotten away from having said that. It would have been

404
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,559
like vh VHS bars and the clip if we had

405
00:19:48,599 --> 00:19:51,960
spliced it in the videos and everything. But now here's

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00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:52,480
a problem.

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00:19:53,039 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 4: Crazy, I know it's real.

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00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,279
Speaker 5: So we're going to.

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00:19:57,759 --> 00:20:01,839
Speaker 1: And I'll preview Steve one game each go.

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00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,640
Speaker 5: Let's look at the first game Denver Broncos, New England Patriots.

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00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,079
You know the look ahead line a week ago, the

412
00:20:08,079 --> 00:20:11,319
betable line before the semi, before the divisional round was

413
00:20:11,319 --> 00:20:13,279
going to be Denver by one to two points, and

414
00:20:13,319 --> 00:20:15,079
I still think they would have been a slight favorite

415
00:20:15,079 --> 00:20:19,279
this week with Knicks bow Knicks at quarterback. But Nix

416
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,119
is of course out, so now it's almost a touchdown adjustment.

417
00:20:22,559 --> 00:20:24,799
It was five and a half, almost six, down to five.

418
00:20:24,839 --> 00:20:26,079
Now we're seeing four and a half. The It's been

419
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a little bit of buyback on Denver, and I agree

420
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with that buyback. I think this is an overreaction. It's

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not what bow Knicks is worth, it's what the difference

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00:20:34,319 --> 00:20:36,480
is between him and the backup. And if you look

423
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at the career numbers to Jared Stindham, he's actually averaged

424
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a yard for pass more seven and a half yards

425
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per pass versus six and a half for Knicks. I know,

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00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,480
different players, slightly different teams with the Raiders and Broncos

427
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,000
for those, but his QB rating is like an eighty

428
00:20:48,039 --> 00:20:50,880
eight and a half. Knis is like a ninety completion

429
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,440
percentage similar. Knicks does have a better TD interception ratio.

430
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,039
Stidham hasn't played this year. He hasn't thrown a pass

431
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for two years with the Broncos, but he's been in

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00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,480
the system now for three years, play a lot three

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00:21:00,519 --> 00:21:04,039
years ago before Nicks. I think it's an overreaction. Home

434
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,440
Dogs are a long term seventy percent play in the

435
00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:09,680
NFL playoffs for almost four decades now, and I think

436
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,640
they're the better defensive team as well. I don't love

437
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,759
this Broncos team. I think they're a phony one seed,

438
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,680
but this isn't the time to fade them. Maybe we

439
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:18,000
get to fade them in the Super Bowl if they

440
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,480
pull the upset. But I think there's some value with

441
00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:20,640
Denver plus four and a half.

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00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, let's stick with the Denver New England game.

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00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,400
I like the under in this game, and I know

444
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,400
it's been bet up to forty two and a half,

445
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,759
but man, I'm trying to put myself in the position

446
00:21:32,839 --> 00:21:36,079
of these coaches. And if you look at New England,

447
00:21:36,559 --> 00:21:39,680
Will Anderson in the Houston Texans lived in Drake May's

448
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,039
house last week. They were all over him. I mean,

449
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:48,119
Drake May had that horrible fumble at their end that

450
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,759
should have resulted into a score for the other team

451
00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:54,839
for Houston, but ultimately they picked it up. The point

452
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,039
I'm making is Denver is going to put a pass

453
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,599
rush on Drake that could be dangerous, and I think

454
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,400
that from New England's perspective, I see a lot of

455
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,400
Remandre Stevenson wheel routes. I see a lot of running

456
00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:12,880
up the gut. I see a lot of six yard outs,

457
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,039
a couple of slants. I think we're going to see

458
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:18,359
a very conservative game by New England. And I think

459
00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:20,759
New England is going to look at this and say, hey,

460
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,680
we got a backup quarterback on the other side, let's

461
00:22:23,759 --> 00:22:27,720
keep this game moving, let's do eight minute drives. And

462
00:22:27,759 --> 00:22:29,440
I think we're going to see the same with Denver.

463
00:22:29,559 --> 00:22:31,799
Denver is not going to lose this game because Jared's

464
00:22:31,799 --> 00:22:34,640
did him through three interceptions. Denver is going to come

465
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,799
into this game looking to run the ball. Play also

466
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,920
six yard throws, four yard throws, wheel routes, laterals, that

467
00:22:43,039 --> 00:22:44,720
kind of thing. I think we're going to see a

468
00:22:44,759 --> 00:22:48,599
conservative game plan from both of these teams. It's going

469
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:53,559
to be cold weather. Both teams have got outstanding defenses.

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00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:58,079
I mean New England in their last four games sixteen

471
00:22:58,079 --> 00:23:02,559
to three, ten and ten deadver secondary is outstanding. I

472
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,920
just feel like both coaches are going to look to

473
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,160
kind of get out of dodge with a W. I

474
00:23:09,319 --> 00:23:11,680
like the under in this game, Joe.

475
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 4: You want any funny stat I'll give you here.

476
00:23:14,039 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: Guys, ready, the career numbers for Jared Stidham forty five

477
00:23:19,279 --> 00:23:23,759
point three success rate, six yards per pass play.

478
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 4: That's better than bo Knicks, well.

479
00:23:27,039 --> 00:23:29,759
Speaker 3: As a forty five percent success rate, and all the

480
00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:32,640
averages just under six yarchds.

481
00:23:32,279 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 4: Per pants play.

482
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,279
Speaker 3: The bottom line is coaching matters here, and I think

483
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,680
we have this false sense with New England's defense because

484
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,279
they were able to get to Herbert and they were

485
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,480
able to get the stressed. Those are two of the

486
00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:49,680
worst offensive lines when it comes to pass blocking and

487
00:23:49,759 --> 00:23:53,319
all of the NFL. To me, I think we're looking

488
00:23:53,319 --> 00:23:55,759
at them. There's a whole lot of props in this game.

489
00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:58,759
I think that all correlate together. I think Drake may

490
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,559
interception is up for grabs.

491
00:24:00,839 --> 00:24:02,759
Speaker 4: I think that's over half.

492
00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:06,839
Speaker 3: An interception, and I think Stidham's attempts are going to

493
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,920
be up and over. Steve, you mentioned the yardage for

494
00:24:11,039 --> 00:24:14,440
him throwing this is a top three offensive line in

495
00:24:14,519 --> 00:24:17,799
protecting the quarterback the past, they're they're top three and

496
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,359
pass rush defense. They are not going to allow what

497
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,279
I think is a little bit of an overrated front

498
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,839
now of New England because of the two teams they

499
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:27,559
just played.

500
00:24:27,839 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 4: They're not going to get to Stidham.

501
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 3: And I think Stidham's also going to have, believe it

502
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:34,880
or not, the opportunity to go over his rushing prop

503
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,680
which I think was twelve and a half yards.

504
00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 4: The other day.

505
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,319
Speaker 3: It might be a little higher, but it's not He's

506
00:24:40,319 --> 00:24:41,480
got legs, Merril.

507
00:24:41,519 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 4: It's not like he.

508
00:24:42,079 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 3: Doesn't have the ability to run. And we've already seen

509
00:24:45,039 --> 00:24:48,759
what Sean Payton does with Nicks designing some of those runs.

510
00:24:49,039 --> 00:24:52,319
It actually broke his ankle in that last game. So

511
00:24:52,559 --> 00:24:57,440
I think Stidham over rushing, over attempts, overpassing, and I

512
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,160
think Drake may absolutely has an eye in them this week.

513
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 5: I love it what I like about the passing props.

514
00:25:04,279 --> 00:25:06,759
Pres he knows even if you like Denver, he could

515
00:25:06,799 --> 00:25:08,599
have a big game passing. As I mentioned, Nicks has

516
00:25:08,599 --> 00:25:10,519
gone over two hundred and six of eight. But then

517
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:12,559
if they are losing, he probably has a bigger game

518
00:25:12,559 --> 00:25:14,759
pass how as you're playing from behind, so like you

519
00:25:14,799 --> 00:25:16,319
get the best of both worlds with some of those

520
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:17,119
yardage props.

521
00:25:17,319 --> 00:25:17,559
Speaker 4: Yep.

522
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what thing, though, I wouldn't put it

523
00:25:21,519 --> 00:25:26,119
past Peyton to come out firing right off the bat. No,

524
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,000
I feel like, I feel like they're going to have

525
00:25:30,079 --> 00:25:33,319
a real strong game plan with that first possession, So

526
00:25:33,839 --> 00:25:37,079
you know, I would not be against the over in

527
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,319
the first quarter. I will tell you that. Yeah, even

528
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:40,960
about ty.

529
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,519
Speaker 5: Press, one of my favorite angles has been those early unders,

530
00:25:43,559 --> 00:25:45,400
and we saw it like in the championship, we talked

531
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,359
about football. We saw in the semi finals Miami O

532
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,200
Miss was three points they scored the first play of

533
00:25:51,279 --> 00:25:53,640
the second quarter. They scored fifty four points the final

534
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,359
three quarters. And as you know, even with Tom Brady

535
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:57,960
back in the day, they always had those low scoing

536
00:25:58,039 --> 00:26:00,759
first quarters. So it does depend in the game plan.

537
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,200
But I can make that counter argument that they could

538
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,000
be conservative with the new quarterback, right, So I don't know,

539
00:26:06,039 --> 00:26:08,319
but you're right. The wild card is Peyton. You know,

540
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,680
Sean Payton is definitely not conventional. He runs trick plays.

541
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,319
He did an on site kick in the Super Bowl

542
00:26:13,319 --> 00:26:16,519
that basically won the Saints of championship. You know, that

543
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,799
is the real X factor there. But yeah, a lot

544
00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:20,920
of these games teams do start a little more conservative.

545
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,599
This is also, you know, second third playoff game now

546
00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:24,599
for these teams as well.

547
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: And I could see by the way Drake may also

548
00:26:28,039 --> 00:26:31,319
gaining the yardage and having no problem rushing the ball.

549
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,319
I could absolutely see him throwing for his yards too

550
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,759
as well. I think both quarterbacks are poised to have

551
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:43,400
pretty good passing games in this one, right, Joe, Yeah,

552
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,519
there's no it's just getting colder, but the total keeps

553
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:47,119
going up.

554
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: So it doesn't look like it's going to be very windy.

555
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,720
No rain and nothing like that's really important. Okay, there

556
00:26:54,759 --> 00:26:57,880
we go. That's our NFL best bets that we're now

557
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,559
going on to the clock two minutes each. Joe will

558
00:27:00,559 --> 00:27:03,480
do the NBA, I'll do the NHL, And although Steve

559
00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:06,920
will not cater to the two minutes because he's making

560
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,680
a very special video that we're in content, we're still

561
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,480
going to have Steve Merrill's college basketball. Joe, you're up first.

562
00:27:14,759 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 3: I understand it was a little too professional, you said

563
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,359
yesterday STEVE'SVIO, So I have to cut back on the professionalism,

564
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,720
and I will try to do that. Meantime, let's go

565
00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:25,759
to the NBA here tonight. It's going to kick off

566
00:27:25,799 --> 00:27:29,960
seven o'clock with the Rockets taking on the Pistons. Rockets

567
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,839
couldn't get it done against the Sixers last night, over

568
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,079
time loss for them. Now they got to hop back

569
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,720
on the road head over to Detroit. Who by the way,

570
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,960
we understand now we'll have Kate Cunningham back. This line

571
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,480
over nine three, three and a half. It was bet

572
00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:49,920
up to four. It got as high as five and

573
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:54,440
a half when Kate Cunningham was announced in but now

574
00:27:54,519 --> 00:27:56,079
it looks like it's settling.

575
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 4: Right around that four and a half line.

576
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 3: And listen any which way it cut it, it's one

577
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,799
of the lowest totals on the board tonight. I think

578
00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:05,160
that's for a reason. Could be a little bit of

579
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,119
a rock fight, very physical game here tonight. In that

580
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,119
one the Celtics and Nets. Boy, I don't know how

581
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,799
this is not double digits for the Celtics. Nets are

582
00:28:14,839 --> 00:28:18,640
getting eight and a half. It feels like, yeah, Nets

583
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,759
team total under might be in play here, especially with

584
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,400
who is playing for them in that one. The Sun's

585
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,000
taking on the Hawks. What a fun one, do you know?

586
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,319
Fun trivia? The Suns have not won a game in

587
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,279
Atlanta since twenty fourteen until tonight, of course.

588
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: Kings and Calves, by.

589
00:28:36,839 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: The way, also going out of tonight Calves laying eleven

590
00:28:41,079 --> 00:28:43,480
eleven and a half Sacramento is just awful?

591
00:28:43,519 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 4: People, who are we kidding?

592
00:28:45,319 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 3: But Demante Siponis is back in this one, and anytime

593
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,279
he's on the court, the Kings are better. I don't

594
00:28:51,279 --> 00:28:54,920
trust the Calves with that number at home. Thunders should

595
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,359
crush the Pacers, or will they because they're laying sixteen

596
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,960
And if you have blindly been betting the Thunder, you're

597
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,359
likely broke this year against the spread because they don't

598
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,640
often cover numbers like this anymore. Having said that, and

599
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,000
still the Pacers, I would still back the Thunder, Pelicans

600
00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:16,200
and Grizzlies. Pelicans are also terrible, but Zion not on

601
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,960
the injury report? The hell's that all about? Likely going

602
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,599
with the Grizzlies anyway. Nuggets should handle the box, take

603
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,519
the points there, and the Raptors red hot Raptors. I'm

604
00:29:27,519 --> 00:29:30,440
going to back the team total under on them in

605
00:29:30,519 --> 00:29:30,920
that one.

606
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 4: Press Joe, let's.

607
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,559
Speaker 1: Go to the NHL. And look, we start with Tampa

608
00:29:35,599 --> 00:29:39,920
Bay playing Chicago. Chicago under two and a half team total.

609
00:29:42,079 --> 00:29:45,279
Tampa Bay just doesn't allow teams to score. You go

610
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,000
down the list a one to one, two in regulation,

611
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,880
one one, two to two. That's seven games without a

612
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,680
team getting more than two goals. Chicago did go over

613
00:29:57,759 --> 00:30:01,599
that total yesterday against Caroline, but I think Tampa Bay

614
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:06,680
holds them under two and a half tonight, Vegas playing Toronto.

615
00:30:06,759 --> 00:30:09,359
This is a tricky one for me, but I do

616
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:13,000
actually lean on the Vegas Golden Knights tonight there minus

617
00:30:13,039 --> 00:30:16,680
one twenty five. I also like the under in this game,

618
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,000
but I'm laying off of this game completely. I like Dallas.

619
00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:22,079
There's a lot of money coming in on Dallas. If

620
00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:24,440
you're gonna bet Dallas, you gotta bet him now. We

621
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:28,880
had Dallas for a client bet last night. They completely

622
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,839
dominated that hockey game but lost one nothing, just couldn't

623
00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:35,400
find the net. I think they get it done tonight.

624
00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:39,920
Calgary playing Washington. Don't overthink it. Take the under in

625
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,799
this game. Washington games tend to play to the under

626
00:30:42,839 --> 00:30:45,119
and Calgary will play to the under. Movie board all

627
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:49,319
your Philadelphia playing Colorado this is another one of those.

628
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,160
Just take Philadelphia team total under two and a half

629
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,079
and don't overthink it. You got Anaheim in Seattle. I

630
00:30:56,119 --> 00:30:59,319
think Seattle is a bet on team moving forward. I

631
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,799
like them. Here is a short number at minus one

632
00:31:01,799 --> 00:31:05,480
point fifteen. Take the Kraken, San Jose and the New

633
00:31:05,559 --> 00:31:08,720
York Rangers. Although I never want to bet the Rangers

634
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,480
over they're playing San Jose. This game is gonna get

635
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,480
well over six and a half goals. San Jose can

636
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:19,279
score and they can't play defense. I think that game

637
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,480
is a big, big number what all said and done,

638
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:26,920
and I like the under in the Vancouver, New Jersey game.

639
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,359
Steve Merrill college basketball is yours.

640
00:31:33,079 --> 00:31:35,599
Speaker 5: Gonna look at two national TV games Friday night in

641
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,359
college hoops, both on Fox Sports One. You're eight o'clock

642
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,759
and ten o'clock Eastern games. Just a quicker mind. If

643
00:31:40,799 --> 00:31:43,079
you're liking these video thumbs up, like comment blow, We

644
00:31:43,119 --> 00:31:45,559
read the comments and we reply back here on wager

645
00:31:45,599 --> 00:31:48,519
Talk TV and click subscribe and click that bell for

646
00:31:48,599 --> 00:31:52,119
instant alerts, including my NFL double video for the NFC

647
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,920
and AFC Championship games this weekend, and also college basketball

648
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,960
Top twenty five video starts this Saturday. Don't miss it,

649
00:31:58,039 --> 00:32:00,720
click subscribe, click the bell. First game at eight o'clock

650
00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:04,680
Eastern on Fox Sports One tonight is Marquette at Butler.

651
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,720
Currently Butler about a six point favorite. It hasn't moved

652
00:32:07,759 --> 00:32:09,480
too much. Has seen some money coming on the over

653
00:32:09,559 --> 00:32:11,799
one fifty nine up to one sixty one sixty and

654
00:32:11,839 --> 00:32:13,440
a half, and I agree with the over move here.

655
00:32:13,519 --> 00:32:16,200
These are two teams that play up tempo, fast basketball,

656
00:32:16,599 --> 00:32:18,480
both two of the faster teams in the country as

657
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,599
far as possessions in tempo and also Butler gets to

658
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,519
the free throw line a lot. The Butler does it

659
00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:25,839
from the free throw line this season in a high

660
00:32:25,839 --> 00:32:29,359
percentage of their points from the charity strike. Now, Marquette

661
00:32:29,359 --> 00:32:31,799
not a very good three point shooting team, and Mark

662
00:32:31,839 --> 00:32:34,319
Butler does not give up many threes, so that's my

663
00:32:34,359 --> 00:32:36,279
only concern getting up in over one sixty and a half,

664
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:38,000
I lean over, but the best way I think to

665
00:32:38,039 --> 00:32:41,400
attack this is a Butler team total up and over

666
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,359
eighty three. If you have access to team totals, take

667
00:32:43,359 --> 00:32:45,759
a look at Butler team total over eighty three tonight.

668
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,920
This could also be a Marquette defense that is a

669
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,440
little fatigued. They snapped their three game losing streak. In fact,

670
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:55,200
they had lost on nine of their previous ten games

671
00:32:55,279 --> 00:32:57,920
until an overtime win at home Monday one oh five,

672
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,400
one oh four against Providence. They've just been bad defensively

673
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,160
all season. I like the over, but I specifically think

674
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,160
Butler does the heavy lifting. Butler team total over eighty

675
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,279
three probably the best way to attack it. At eight

676
00:33:09,359 --> 00:33:12,359
eastern on Fox Sports One, your late night game at

677
00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:16,240
ten o'clock eastern is Utah State Colorado State, and we've

678
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,240
got the Aggies versus the Rams here as you see

679
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,319
on the screen, and we're gonna have Utah State currently

680
00:33:20,599 --> 00:33:22,240
opening about a three and a half point favorite, up

681
00:33:22,279 --> 00:33:23,880
to four and a half five now, we've definitely seen

682
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,079
some money come in on the road favorite. Yet the

683
00:33:26,079 --> 00:33:28,400
total has dropped in this game one fifty two down

684
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,000
to one forty eight, even a one to forty seven

685
00:33:31,039 --> 00:33:33,839
and a half showing and that makes sense. Colorado State

686
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,079
is one of the slowest half court teams in the nation.

687
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,200
It's like watching paint dry. Three hundred and sixty five

688
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,839
teams in college basketball this year, they played the third

689
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,839
slowest tempo, the third fewest possessions of anybody in the country.

690
00:33:46,079 --> 00:33:48,880
That's why this total has dropped, yet the pointspread has

691
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,799
gone higher. A little counterintuitive because obviously, if Colorado State's

692
00:33:51,799 --> 00:33:54,359
going to control the tempo in this game, they probably

693
00:33:54,359 --> 00:33:56,279
at the edge. What gets a little bit tricky though,

694
00:33:56,359 --> 00:33:59,319
they have the second best three point shooting offense in

695
00:33:59,359 --> 00:34:02,079
the country, and they take a lot of threes, so

696
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,640
it is a little surprising their games are so low scoring,

697
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,240
and it will depend that they can dictate their tempo.

698
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:10,239
But these are two very good offensive teams. In fact,

699
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,840
the effective field goal percentage they both rank top twenty

700
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,960
in the country, and two point shooting they're both top fifty.

701
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,159
As I mentioned, Colorado State the second best three point

702
00:34:18,159 --> 00:34:21,960
shooting team. They play slow, but they're an efficient offense,

703
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:23,679
and they do give up a lot of threes. And

704
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,000
Utah State also hits the three point shot. So this

705
00:34:27,039 --> 00:34:28,559
is one of those moves. I'm gonna disagree with the

706
00:34:28,559 --> 00:34:30,119
total move here. I know it seems like it's a

707
00:34:30,119 --> 00:34:31,880
big total for a slow paced team, but I think

708
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,079
Utah State Colorado State might be a little higher scoring

709
00:34:34,159 --> 00:34:36,679
than expected. Take a look over one forty eight. In

710
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,599
that one one forty seven and a half one forty eight,

711
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,400
and I think that actually correlates to Colorado State, even

712
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,119
though they play slower. I think if they're trading baskets here,

713
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:46,800
they can hang. I disagree with the money moves in

714
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,719
this one. I would lean Colorado State plus the four

715
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,039
and a half five and over one forty eight now

716
00:34:51,039 --> 00:34:53,280
that the line is lower. That's your ten o'clock Eastern game,

717
00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:56,480
also on Fox Sports one. And don't forget you want

718
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,440
my strongest best bets for Friday Night two, NBA one

719
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,000
college and any bonus college free play on my page

720
00:35:02,039 --> 00:35:04,360
right now, Steve merriwager Talk dot com and get there

721
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,920
quicker with a shortcut you see on your screen wt

722
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,960
dot buzz slash sm. I haven't missed an NBA Best

723
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:11,920
bet in nearly ten days. It's been ten days since

724
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,199
I missed an NBA best bet. We swept the board

725
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,599
so far this week. I've got two more going tonight

726
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,199
college best bet, bonus free play and an NBA Rest

727
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,800
of the season special is loaded as well, the lowest

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price of the year for my number one ranked NBA

729
00:35:25,039 --> 00:35:28,079
don't miss at Steve merrilwager Talk dot com, hit subscribe,

730
00:35:28,159 --> 00:35:30,320
hit the bell like and comment below, and I'll be

731
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,159
back this week and more free play videos right here

732
00:35:32,159 --> 00:35:33,039
on wager Talk TV.

733
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 1: Brilliant stuff, Steve Merrill, awesome. Okay, mail back section. So

734
00:35:39,639 --> 00:35:41,639
what you guys who don't know about the segment. We

735
00:35:41,679 --> 00:35:44,559
go through some of the comments and it's we don't

736
00:35:44,559 --> 00:35:48,079
do any research ahead of time, so I'm just reading

737
00:35:48,119 --> 00:35:52,400
them as they come. Joe Corey Mosar, Yeah, right. I

738
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,599
would like to know who Joe's favorite college basketball team

739
00:35:55,679 --> 00:35:58,000
is to win the championship. And I'll ask you the

740
00:35:58,039 --> 00:36:01,000
same question, Steve, because I know you're ex that the sport.

741
00:36:02,199 --> 00:36:06,159
Speaker 3: I have two future bets that I made, and one

742
00:36:06,199 --> 00:36:09,679
of them is on Florida to repeat, and the other

743
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,519
one was Arizona. So those are the two teams that

744
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:18,599
I think have enough depth and talent come March to

745
00:36:18,639 --> 00:36:19,280
be able to.

746
00:36:19,199 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 4: Make a serious run at it.

747
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,159
Speaker 3: A lot of things got to break your way, but

748
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,920
both those teams were a lot better priced just a

749
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,679
month ago than they are right now. But I like

750
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,800
Arizona and Florida here to have a real shot.

751
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 4: At going back to back. Steve.

752
00:36:36,679 --> 00:36:38,559
Speaker 5: I mean, Arizona's a really good team. And it's interesting,

753
00:36:38,559 --> 00:36:41,199
Priise because I'm starting my college basketball Top twenty five

754
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,639
video for every Saturday. I'll be recording that today on Friday.

755
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,239
So I don't normally look at the rankings because they

756
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:47,920
don't mean much. But when I'm doing the videos I

757
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,880
do for football and basketball, and I noticed today as

758
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,000
I was preparing for that later that Arizona's getting every

759
00:36:53,039 --> 00:36:55,199
single first place vote. I think they're getting all sixty

760
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,519
one first place votes in the AMP. That's a grocery

761
00:36:59,519 --> 00:37:01,320
store here in the United States. By the way, that's

762
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:05,280
why I'm laughing AMP the AP poll because they're nineteen

763
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,599
and oh they're undefeated. I get it. But I've all

764
00:37:07,639 --> 00:37:09,639
season long and I still have Michigan as the best

765
00:37:09,639 --> 00:37:12,079
team in the country at seventeen and one, and they're

766
00:37:12,119 --> 00:37:14,440
third in the polls. I mentioned this yesterday on the show,

767
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,679
and they play Ohio State tonight. By the way, they're

768
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,360
the number one two point shooting offense and the number

769
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,519
one two point shooting defense. Let that sink in. There

770
00:37:21,519 --> 00:37:24,480
are three hundred and sixty five teams and they're the

771
00:37:24,559 --> 00:37:27,760
best at both offense and defense from two point range.

772
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,480
And that's the consistency factory.

773
00:37:29,559 --> 00:37:29,599
Speaker 4: Know.

774
00:37:29,679 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 5: You live by the three you died by the three,

775
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,280
and to win six games in a row in the tournament.

776
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,519
It's really hard to be on every game where I

777
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:39,320
think Michigan's got that size of consistency and they're just

778
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:40,960
great at both ends of the court. So I think

779
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,639
Michigan's the team to beat. Not gonna get a ton

780
00:37:42,679 --> 00:37:44,599
of value with them, but that's my pick right now.

781
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,599
If you're going a little bit deeper down the list,

782
00:37:46,639 --> 00:37:48,480
I'd like to look for balanced teams. I'll go down

783
00:37:48,559 --> 00:37:50,960
like teams that are outside like the top twenty even

784
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:53,760
And first of all, you know, last year nobody believed

785
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,079
in the ACC. They had a decent run of the tournament.

786
00:37:57,119 --> 00:37:59,519
SEC got fourteen of the sixteen teams, and you know,

787
00:37:59,599 --> 00:38:01,880
so you got to be careful now that when conference

788
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,199
plays sometimes teams look better or worse than they really are.

789
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,440
A team I'm talking about in my video this week,

790
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,559
and they play Houston also Texas Tech right now, early

791
00:38:09,639 --> 00:38:12,559
top twenty team. I think they're very balanced as well,

792
00:38:12,599 --> 00:38:15,320
really good offensive team. And as Joe knows, you know,

793
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,960
the old saying defense wins championships is kind of true.

794
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,760
But in the modern era, all these national champs in

795
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,079
football basketball, they're all great offensive teams. I've got Texas

796
00:38:24,119 --> 00:38:25,719
Tech as a top ten offense right now.

797
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:27,639
Speaker 4: Yep, great question.

798
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 1: Corey Aubrey writes, absolutely love Steve on the show. Funny

799
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:35,679
as hell, Douglas, you guys, crack me up. De Sosa

800
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:42,079
best show on Earth. That's really great. Arthur Hernandez writes,

801
00:38:42,119 --> 00:38:44,639
if the tickets are four to one on Seattle, why

802
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,079
is that line not moving? Art did discuss this a

803
00:38:48,119 --> 00:38:54,800
little earlier. Volume does not move lines? People move lines.

804
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,800
Joe is ageless. Guess who wrote that, Joe rn Airey.

805
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 3: Girl, Celeste, Yes, there you go the last.

806
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,639
Speaker 1: We love you, Celeste, thank you for being with us

807
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:19,079
every day. Uh yeah, the parlay last night was trash.

808
00:39:19,559 --> 00:39:23,559
That was from c Hebard. Yeah it was, we own it.

809
00:39:24,639 --> 00:39:28,400
Mind boggle rights. This is the best betting show ever.

810
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,840
Steve Barrell brings a level headed anchor to this group.

811
00:39:34,199 --> 00:39:36,480
Uh have you ever been called an anchor before?

812
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:37,519
Speaker 4: I like that.

813
00:39:37,639 --> 00:39:39,559
Speaker 5: I love it. I have been called Will Ferrell, as

814
00:39:39,639 --> 00:39:41,960
Joe knows several he was an anchor man. So I'm

815
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,000
starting to see the six degrees of Will Ferrell there.

816
00:39:44,039 --> 00:39:45,519
I'll bring that in whenever possible.

817
00:39:45,679 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 4: I like that.

818
00:39:47,159 --> 00:39:52,559
Speaker 1: Shout out to Larry Hart unknown entity. De Beck likes

819
00:39:52,639 --> 00:39:59,199
the Pats Rams money line parlay lockett In, he says, okay,

820
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:03,800
and great show is always a Mike T. I love

821
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:09,039
Round Robins, I hate Round Robins. Who but that's okay.

822
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 5: I know, I'm sure they make a good burger.

823
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't it all seriousness. Let's just stop

824
00:40:17,079 --> 00:40:21,119
right there. Do you make parlay bet Steve like in

825
00:40:21,199 --> 00:40:22,360
your own personal life?

826
00:40:23,199 --> 00:40:25,639
Speaker 5: No, the only time a parlay is a good play,

827
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,159
and I occasionally make them. Well, I'll tell the story.

828
00:40:28,199 --> 00:40:31,000
Nobody allowed you to do these anymore when they correlated. Yeah,

829
00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:33,480
and you can still sometimes, like on a side total

830
00:40:33,519 --> 00:40:36,000
in the same game I mentioned that Colrad of State game.

831
00:40:36,039 --> 00:40:38,320
They play extremely slow, So you know, sometimes you have

832
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,159
a slow team versus a fast team in college hoops,

833
00:40:41,159 --> 00:40:43,079
and it's going to probably depend on who can control

834
00:40:43,159 --> 00:40:46,039
to dictate the tempo. Slow is gonna favor one team

835
00:40:46,119 --> 00:40:48,159
fast the other. So you can do a side total

836
00:40:48,199 --> 00:40:51,119
parlay because the outcome is correlated. The story I'll tell

837
00:40:51,119 --> 00:40:52,880
real quick though, about twenty some years ago some of

838
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:57,000
the offshores were dumb enough to let you correlate parlays

839
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,760
in college football when they be playing those blowout games

840
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,599
would take you know, the minus forty eight over fifty four,

841
00:41:03,679 --> 00:41:05,639
the plus forty eight under fifty four in the same

842
00:41:05,639 --> 00:41:08,119
college football game, and most books wouldn't let you do that.

843
00:41:08,159 --> 00:41:10,159
Even twenty years ago a few still let you do it.

844
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,239
That did not last long as you can imagine. But yeah,

845
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,199
correlated parlay usually side total, same game is the only

846
00:41:16,199 --> 00:41:17,440
time it would actually make sense.

847
00:41:18,119 --> 00:41:21,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I almost never bet parlays myself. I have

848
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,519
did a few money line parlays this year in NFL.

849
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,880
I did go through a period and there was one

850
00:41:30,079 --> 00:41:34,800
season in the NFL where I took the Peyton Manning

851
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,920
Marvin Harrison Drin James'.

852
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:39,559
Speaker 5: Team.

853
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:44,159
Speaker 1: I took the Colts and the over parlayed them every week,

854
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,000
and that's correlated.

855
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,199
Speaker 5: That's because they were good. They were a great offensive team.

856
00:41:49,119 --> 00:41:52,519
Speaker 1: So that makes sense time and I did that like

857
00:41:52,639 --> 00:41:55,159
for a whole season and it went really, really well.

858
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,519
I have tried to find those bets since I tried

859
00:41:59,559 --> 00:42:01,639
to do it with The Greatest Show on Earth with

860
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,840
the Rams it didn't work, and I have tried to

861
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,960
do it with the Dent Detroit Lions over the last

862
00:42:09,039 --> 00:42:12,920
few years, and it also they were going over but

863
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,679
they weren't covering or they were covering and it wasn't

864
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,840
going over and I couldn't find that rhythm that I

865
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,199
was able to get that one year with the Colts.

866
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,079
But I don't normally do parlays either.

867
00:42:24,119 --> 00:42:29,679
Speaker 3: What about you, Joe, It's gotta be I mean the occasional,

868
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,280
you know, like I said during the NFL season, the

869
00:42:32,679 --> 00:42:36,880
five team money line parlay round robin is is something

870
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:40,159
you like when you've got some favorites that you think

871
00:42:40,159 --> 00:42:43,519
can run a table and maybe a big dog outside

872
00:42:43,559 --> 00:42:47,920
of that. The other big thing that's become popular now though,

873
00:42:48,159 --> 00:42:53,000
are these same game teasers, Meryl, And when you're down

874
00:42:53,039 --> 00:42:56,119
to these limited games and you've got like, let's say

875
00:42:56,159 --> 00:42:59,719
Seattle coming up right, Seattle laying two and a half,

876
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,559
ran Is getting two and a half. There's not really

877
00:43:02,599 --> 00:43:07,599
a traditional long teaser in the Patriot and Bronco game

878
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:11,599
to utilize, but there is, uh, you know, a situation

879
00:43:11,679 --> 00:43:13,280
where you could get the rams up to eight and

880
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,760
a half. And if you think there's gonna be more

881
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,599
points or less points in this game, you know, sometimes

882
00:43:18,639 --> 00:43:21,519
those same game teasers, as long as you're not getting

883
00:43:21,599 --> 00:43:25,079
killed at minus one thirty five or something I've never

884
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:25,840
want to say.

885
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,199
Speaker 5: I was just say Press real quick that something else

886
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,159
has gonna point out to the same game parlays that

887
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:31,880
like FanDuel, you know, are big on and stuff and

888
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,559
they let you do a lot of those are correlated

889
00:43:34,599 --> 00:43:35,880
and people are like, oh, I've got an edge, but

890
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,239
they're giving you their payout, so you still you're not

891
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,880
getting odds still, So like crazy, just because something's correlated,

892
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:43,800
you got to make sure you're getting the true odds still, right.

893
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:45,719
So there's so many different layers to it.

894
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, teaser and play minus one forty, Like that's.

895
00:43:49,559 --> 00:43:51,199
Speaker 5: Not When you said that, it made me think about it,

896
00:43:51,199 --> 00:43:53,639
Like the teasers are great mathematical plays, but they've been

897
00:43:53,679 --> 00:43:56,360
priced out now at minus one forty. The other thing

898
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,320
I'll say Press about parlay is one thing I left

899
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,519
out there is a useful You're not changing the math,

900
00:44:01,599 --> 00:44:03,519
like you're getting skewed on the payoffs more than if

901
00:44:03,559 --> 00:44:07,320
you just play the game straight long term. But there

902
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,519
is a use for him from a money management perspective,

903
00:44:09,519 --> 00:44:11,719
And what kills ninety nine percent of the losing sports

904
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,119
betters out there is that they don't manage their money correctly.

905
00:44:14,119 --> 00:44:16,440
They're just here and there they don't have an edge.

906
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:18,280
You know. So if you want to have fun every

907
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,480
weekend and play a five or ten dollars parlay, you know,

908
00:44:20,519 --> 00:44:21,800
like here on the show, if you want to put

909
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,639
five or ten bucks down on our three or fourteen

910
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,159
parlay every day, nothing wrong with that because from a

911
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,920
risk reward perspective, it's a pretty good deal because you're

912
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:30,719
not risking a lot. You could have that big payday

913
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,960
and that's like Joe was talking about with the five games.

914
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,400
Maybe on an NFL Saturday or Sunday, but once again,

915
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,239
you're not changing the math. If you're serious from an

916
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,000
investment perspective, you should be playing all of our best

917
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,280
bets at wager talk dot com a four percent of

918
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:47,559
bank or whatever we're rating them, including.

919
00:44:47,079 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 1: Our parlay of the day. We're going to call it

920
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,320
a parlay of the day. Play him straight, Steve, Joe,

921
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,119
thanks for this, guys. Steve Merril will be with us

922
00:44:56,199 --> 00:44:59,760
Thursday and Friday of next week. He will be hosting

923
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:04,559
the entire Super Bowl week start to finish. I will

924
00:45:04,639 --> 00:45:05,639
not be around.

925
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 5: So I made that face as she screamed off, I

926
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,679
was already making that. I went right as I did

927
00:45:11,679 --> 00:45:13,519
that people have been backing up and watching. If you're

928
00:45:13,519 --> 00:45:15,599
watching this now, you got to back it up and

929
00:45:15,639 --> 00:45:18,079
watch it. I literally did that and it morphed into.

930
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,199
Speaker 4: Wow, outstanding. Yep.

931
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,639
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, man, that super Bowl

932
00:45:23,639 --> 00:45:26,199
week is just gonna be like, it's gonna be forget.

933
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 4: Like this.

934
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,760
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, what are you?

935
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,599
Speaker 4: And I like, oh, that's double.

936
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:46,679
Speaker 5: We're you? You love that that? I like the loo

937
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:47,960
Isaac from the Love Boat.

938
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:49,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, to.

939
00:45:52,199 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: Put that out, guys of the comments section.

940
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,559
Speaker 5: I don't know what that one was a cap gun.

941
00:45:58,639 --> 00:46:05,760
That sounds like we did the dance. Mann did the.

942
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: Dam that's right? Sorry, what did this? What is the

943
00:46:13,079 --> 00:46:15,639
leather Tuscadero did this?

944
00:46:16,039 --> 00:46:17,679
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, that was another Happy Days Reford.

945
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

946
00:46:19,559 --> 00:46:22,199
Speaker 5: Yeah, you're digging deep. You're digging deep, you're going away.

947
00:46:22,079 --> 00:46:25,159
Speaker 1: Back tip of the Malachi crunch.

948
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 5: I knew that one, all right. And then President jumping.

949
00:46:31,599 --> 00:46:36,079
Speaker 1: Jump the shot and and I well know, I'm actually

950
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:36,880
enjoying you.

951
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 3: If you can do the rerun dance on the way

952
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:40,239
out would be fantastic.

953
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:44,079
Speaker 5: You have a seat moving