Speaker 1: Welcome everybody, the best betting show ever. I am Lawrence President.
That is the Lady is Friday, NFL on Sunday, We're
gonna do a deep dive. We're gonna find out where
the money is going. We're also gonna look at every
single NHL game on the board. Same with NBA. We
got some college basketball coming your way, our parlay of
the day, and we're gonna do a deep dive into
three NFL beats, one from me, one from Joe, one
from Steve Merrill. Art deseaser up now, Steve Merrill coming later. Joe.
I don't think i've seen you in white looking good?
You sexy devil?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well yeah that's I could have done without that,
but yeah, no, pretty much wear white a lot.
Speaker 4: Press. I'm glad you noticed.
Speaker 3: Very Yes, the surroundings that you the things you notice,
very impressive, good stuff.
Speaker 1: But if you wear white a lot, it's almost like
the things I don't notice because I only noticed today.
What's up? Art to Caesar, I want you can we
can we let your hair down one time on this show.
Speaker 2: Sure when you show up on time.
Speaker 1: No, there we go love that Mike drop sexy devil. Wow,
it is so good, Joe, what are we getting my
handlebar picture up and ready? I'm game, dude. I like
when people make fun of me.
Speaker 3: We might go Tom Selleck a little bit later in
the show when Merrill gets here.
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, okay, Art, let's talk NFL. Look, we bought
four and a halves mostly across the board in New England.
Total hasn't changed in yesterday forty two and a half.
We got minus two and a half, with Seattle total
coming down a bit in the RAMS game to the
under what's going on over at the West Gate?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as far as you know, the information
that gave out yesterday, there's really no I mean, we've
been four and a half on New England or totals
shot up two points from the opener forty and a half.
Obviously you mentioned the Seattle total which dropped down, and
I believe when we were on air yesterday we had
already hit forty six and a half. We opened forty
seven and a half. Seattle's been two and a half.
I think that's gonna be the booking number. I really
don't see it moving to three. I just think when
you're getting enough action, you know, I did mention that
we have four to one ticket account on Seattle, and
some one of the comments had made it comment about that.
You gotta remember, it doesn't mean that we can't be
close to being balanced on the money. We just might
be taking a lot of smaller tickets on Seattle, So
you know, ticket account sometimes can be a little deceiving.
But I think two and a half is gonna be
where we're at, and I think the New England game,
unless we get overwhelmed by public money, maybe we have
a couple of house players come in and drop some
big money on New England money line, or you know,
they lay.
Speaker 1: The four and a half.
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna be pretty steady there as well.
I don't see these number is budgeting that much more so.
Speaker 4: What you see is what you get. I can tell
you art.
Speaker 3: I don't know what kind of traffic you're getting and
handle you're getting so far, but I have seen props
in these games move a lot. I mean it's I've
seen the passing yard it's props move. I mean Jared
Stidham went for I think one ninety and a half.
Now he's almost close to two hundred total passing yards
in the in the market. So usually when we're stuck
at it is what you're going to get, right. How
much fluctuation in the prop betting market do you usually see?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean you know that obviously is going
to correlate with the total going up in that game.
I mean that totally moved two points. So people think
there's gonna be some offense in the game. So you
would think that some props we've bet over. We always
say it though. We get to a certain point with
some of these props where we see the sharp guys
just coming and blindly take all unders, and we'll probably
see that. We have a really good prop guy who
bets on Saturdays, and you know, our props have been
up for days, but he waits till Saturday to bet,
and a lot of times he comes in and he
fires four or five props on every game, and then
we always try to book to his action and he
always takes under, So be interesting to see what he
does on those. Public's gonna be very invested in doing
the anytime touchdown parlays. That's like their favorite thing in
the world to do. They love to bet the first
touchdown score. We have squares up like we would for
the Super Bowl, you know, so we're trying to do that.
We're trying to add a lot more for Conference championship. Listen,
it's gonna be a big handle weekend.
Speaker 1: M All right to see is enjoining us live from
the West Gate? Is the Westgate doing? Does it do
anything special or anything for any of these events? So
you're gonna be serving free coffee anything going on?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if you're sitting at a seat and
you talk to cocktail wait or some I'm sure they
can get you a cup of coffee.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Obviously, the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Is a whole different deal. You know, you got the theater,
and you got all the promotions, and we put out
the big Game prop with packet which we do which
you know it's basically like a mini contest. So we're
able to talk about that a lot more as we
approach the Super Bowl. So yeah, I mean, we're gonna
have a lot of stuff going on.
Speaker 3: So we're trying to get the free cocktail when he's art.
You know how that is? Man, A couple of pigs
in a blanket and nice free decaf coffee.
Speaker 4: That's what we're talking about here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, talking about pigs in a blanket. I am in
the province of Ontario and it is the coldest place
on Earth today, on Earth, it is minus fifty.
Speaker 5: Think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so that's that's what's going on over here.
Speaker 3: Can't be good for your ball rot there, pres right.
I mean they just got to be crawling right up.
I mean, I can't be good at all.
Speaker 4: That comes a video. I didn't know what did I say.
I didn't do any what video. I was just making
a comment.
Speaker 3: You were complaining about your ball rot, and I'm just
saying minus fifty can't be good.
Speaker 1: Heart, No, no, no, no. It's also not good for
an electric car art. There's a bunch of NHL games
eight today. We got some NBA and some college basketball
full plate to NBA games as well. Eight two. Any
bets we need to know about, any moves we need
to know about.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the NHL, we took some Golden Knight money. We
took some Ranger money. In the NBA. We took under
money in the Kings and Cavs game under two thirty five.
They laid four and a half with the Grizzly and
then college I'll run through someone. As I was telling Joe,
it's always the lower end stuff. They laid fourteen with
Austin p they took plus one with Charleston Southern, they
laid five and a half with Southern Indiana, and then
they took the under in the Austin p game under
one forty nine and a half. Took the under one
in the Appellation State game. And I told people, because
they were in the comments asking about it, some UFC stuff.
Three underdogs that Sharps took. They took Song You Dong
plus two hundred, he took the Kita kryl Off plus
one sixty. They took Alex Perez plus one sixty. And
that's from our sharp UFC guy who doesn't really bet
a lot of sports other than the UFC, so when
UFC comes around, he likes to put some sharp stuff in.
We like to book to his actions. So those three
of his plays all underdogs.
Speaker 3: By the way, Art you also mentioned it too. I mean,
because of the weather that Prez is affecting around the
rest of this country affect you to me, we got
a lot of early games coming up here this week.
We got a ton of game. When does it start
rolling in for you? Do you advise people get ahead
of it, wait until the more. What's the best way
to approach it?
Speaker 2: You think, well, I mean, we have two schools of
thoughts when it comes to our sharp college basketball guys.
There are plenty of guys who bet overnight, but once again,
overnight limits ron't as big as they're going to be
in the morning. Some guys just like to bet, bet
their opinions, bet the moves, bet the way they see
the market if they think numbers are off on overnight lines.
But then once you know, we get cooking in the morning,
you just see the screen light up and blow up
for yeah, for hours. So there are definitely two schools
to thought on that. You mentioned all these games that
are gonna be in the morning. I mean, we're gonna
be dealing with, you know, twenty five thirty thirty five
half times in some spots, you know.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna be a lot.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be making very difficult to book those games.
But that's the challenge and it makes it a lot
of fun.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: The caezear joining us. We got Steve Merrill still to come.
Lots of betting information on your way. Shout out to
all of you guys who commented in the comment section
after the show yesterday. I read them all so much fun.
Hit that like button. Subscribe to our.
Speaker 3: Ark.
Speaker 1: We gotta keep moving. You're a busy man. I'll go
to you first. We do a four team round robin
of the day now, well only on Thursdays and Fridays.
Why don't you go first? What's your leg?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: If we're gonna keep it in the NFL, here, I'm
gonna do a anytime touchdown. Oo give me DeVante Adams
plus one ten to score a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Nice, there you go.
Speaker 1: Okay on me. I'm gonna go with under forty two
and a half in the New England Denver game.
Speaker 3: Joe, all right, Prez, I am gonna go with a
prop as well. I'm gonna take Kenneth Walker the third under.
Speaker 4: And it looks like this line keeps cleave, keeps climbing.
Speaker 3: Rather, what do we got eighty six and a half
eighty seven and a half yards rushing against the Rams.
I think they're gonna force him to do what other
teams would like to do, and that's make Sam Donald
beat you. So Kenneth Walker under his rushing yards at
whatever number you can get eighty six and a half,
eighty seven and a half, whatever it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, I love that, Bet. I take it down
to eighty four and a half. I think that's a
massive number. And I know that there's only one running back,
but there really isn't Joe. There are other running backs
and he's not going to get one hundred snaps, so
one hundred percent of the snaps. But Steve Merrill will
add his fourth leg shortly. Art the Caesar, thanks for
doing this, brother, I hope you have a wonderful weekend.
Kick ass Yes, enjoy, enjoy and I agree, by the way,
with that Vegas Golden Knight's line move, even though they're
against Gratto. Well that's Art the Caesar and now we
move to Steve Merril. Steve Merril, welcome to the show.
We're right in the middle of our parlay of the
Day segment. What is leg number four?
Speaker 5: So if you look at career stature Jared Stin on
the backup quarterback for Denver, they're very similar to Bownecks
qb Radi almost identically actually averages a yard for pass more.
I'm gonna look at him to have a decent passing game.
Here over two hundred passing yards. Bo Nix has thrown
for over two hundred and six of his last eight games.
Roncos were throwing the ball a little bit more, and
if Denver's behind as a home underdog, they get up
and over as well, stin them over two hundred yards
passing for the game.
Speaker 1: Yes, there we go, Joe, that's our four team parlay
all NFL. Steve, how did you do last night?
Speaker 4: Life?
Speaker 1: Good?
Speaker 5: Life is good man. I went to the one Mary game,
saw them lead by twenty, never trail and win, and
yet it was at four point game late, so it
felt like a narrow victory. And then they play Hofster tomorrow.
We missed. I missed that as my parlay picking. I
told you Hofster was off back to back losses. Shocked.
They lost outright against A and T yesterday North Carolina
A and T. Joe, I don't know if that's a
good or bad thing for Willy and Mary tomorrow because
now they're coming off three straight losses, but obviously they're beatable,
so very interesting game. They moved it to noon eastern tomorrow.
An alert for the viewers out there. A lot of
games tomorrow got moved up early because of the East
coast snow that's coming. So that could also cause a
little bit of have big hopsters worried about getting back
to New York. Hopefully that's an advantage.
Speaker 4: Yep.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was on the Tribe yesterday, Steve Adam on
the money Line, and yeah, it got a little hairy,
to say the least.
Speaker 4: Never in doubt, done.
Speaker 5: Merrill was there, never in doubt, never in doubt. And
I'll tell you what, Press. They haven't lost at home
all year. They barely lost last year. You know, it's
funny there was only like a couple of thousand there.
The students are just coming back. It's still a good atmosphere.
But William Mary lost three in a row last week,
three road games in six days. It's not about the atmosphere.
It's not about the weird sight lines. It's just something
about the familiarity in the travel. I think in these
mid major conferences and here again. You know, they moved
the game up to Marcus Hofstter's got to get back
out of here to Long Island before the snow hits.
So it'll be interesting to see if that's any kind
of dynamic there.
Speaker 1: We go. Okay, guys, we got a lot of show
left tip to like button subscribed to our channel. We've
got three NFL back one each, our NBA Rundown, our
NHL Rundown. Steve Merrill's got a few big college basketball
bets coming your way. We're going to in the show
with the mailbox. Let's get into our and let's get
into what is it? Joe, it's uh.
Speaker 3: You want me to Okay, I didn't realize where we're
going to go that wrap, But as long as you're
you're gonna do it, I'll bring it up.
Speaker 4: Because Merrill looks forward to this. There it is, there
it is.
Speaker 1: I look so good, I look so at all.
Speaker 5: If that's business in the front, I can't imagine what
one of the back looks like.
Speaker 1: Oh that's funny, Joe, I got another. I got another
picture of the year before wearing something like that. I
gotta get you all of these pictures.
Speaker 3: You have a lot, you know, you do it just
like the one providing you with them.
Speaker 5: That's just I love it.
Speaker 3: Not afraid I'm not finding these, I'm not searching, I'm
not taking for them. They Joe under the covers, They
somehow land in my mailbox.
Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm going to go through my
I'm gonna go through my uh catalog, I have one
of me with a bold camp. I should get you that.
Speaker 4: Again.
Speaker 5: Imagine the catalog.
Speaker 3: No, I cannot not even remotely close the catalog.
Speaker 1: It's up in the cloud. Joe, I should just give
you access.
Speaker 5: Just give me the catalog anyway.
Speaker 1: I got a huge play an NFL. Wee, so does Joe.
Joe got five percent play up in the NFL. It's
been presidentially approved. His five percent play is different to
my big four percent play different games. Uh, so grab
them both. I'm going for eight in a row in
my four percent play. Joe's going for eight in a
row in his five percent play. Yeah. I'm on a
seven and oh run in four percent bets sixty three
percent since January first of last year. And this is
an ATS bet. And I got to tell you, guys,
sixteen and six on the year in NFL ATS bets.
It basically does not get much better than that. So
I have that up. I also have two prop bets
and a total I got a big NFL card, take
advantage of that, and I'm rolling in college hoops right now.
When boat last night went on a six and one run.
I got a college basketball bet up tonight. Two NHL
plays in one NBA play. That's me, Joe Rinaria. I've
already talked about your five percent. What do you got going?
Speaker 3: And then we'll go to Steve two NBA two college
games as well. Over at the page at wager talk
dot com. Merril, how is your business?
Speaker 5: This is in the front end business back?
Speaker 1: Did you do your NPC oil today?
Speaker 5: NBA one again? A one again, guys, it's been ten days.
I just looked, there's been ten days since I've missed
an NBA best bet over a week and a half
and not a shock on monster run almost a sixty
five for actually over now sick. It was sixty five
percent the past two months. We went again last night
with the Spurs. I didn't even realize how good it's been.
Johnny Detroit, by the way, yesterday threw up an NBA
special for me on my page. Number one all time
NBA sides over like decades. It's number one going back
to twenty twenty one. He pulled the stats up for
the last four years or so since I joined wager Talk,
and it's a discounted price for the rest of the season.
That's on my page right now. Two more NBA Best
bets going tonight, plus a college basketball best bet and
a bonus college basketball play which I'm not giving out
here on the show. So go to my page now,
get the free play and get three more best bets.
Winning continues Steve Merrillwager Talk dot Com, WT dot Buzz slash.
Speaker 1: Sm Yeah, and I want to add to that real
quick about Steve's NBA You know, I told how many
times are you going to put that? You already used
that with art, got up with news, we got up
with new stuff, we got dig.
Speaker 3: I got a look at that phrase. It looks like
he was trying to push his catalogue. That's what it
looks like there, August.
Speaker 1: Coming out kind of push the catalog out of my talks.
Speaker 5: What is that a bunny with golf clubs or swords?
Speaker 4: And what is that like?
Speaker 1: Bunny? It's a very large fashion brand. You are not
a fashion stuff, So.
Speaker 5: That I like that. I appreciate it, don't know, Yeah, okay,
I got.
Speaker 4: What do you got?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 4: Nice? That's that's not a vori like the present is
wearing here though.
Speaker 5: Ill this is one of the most comfortable hoodies I've
had though.
Speaker 1: True Classic, True Classic, and I got your epans going. Guys,
in all seriousness, I've told you all I revamped my
NBA team about four years ago. Since then, I've not
had an NBA losing I have not had a losing
season in n B A. I'm up one hundred units
a profit over that time. And the reason I mentioned
that is Steve Merrill beats me. Every bloodier like me. Meryll,
Marco and Teddy are just constantly dueling or NBA pro
over wager talk. So yeah, if Steve is rolling an
NBA right now, take advantage of that special because man, Steve,
your NBA has been exceptional for yours.
Speaker 5: And what's funny, pres is my favorite part of any sport.
Any season has yet to begin. That's the NBA Playoffs.
I've always said my desert island strategy, if I could
only handicap one game on a desert island, would be
the NBA Playoffs because it's just consistent year after year,
the seven game series. The same situations have worked for decades.
So yeah, it's going to get better. The season will continue,
and it's been a great start so far.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was stuck on a desert island and was
only able to handicap one thing. It would be porn.
I would handicap porn.
Speaker 5: You have a good porn catalog, A big catalog there too.
Speaker 1: Yes, my catalog is incredible. I mean maybe like the
Miss Universe contest. I don't think I'm gonna pick a
bunch of dudes in shorts. Whatever could go up my ass.
I'll take what I can get.
Speaker 5: So good, So glad I wasn't on the screen for
that conference roll.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, why, Steve, I honestly believe that that
video was clipped together. I don't think I.
Speaker 5: Say it stacks with AI, now you know that's what
that is. The downside to AI is like all you
got to do now present be like I didn't say that,
you know, and people don't know that's the downside. Well,
we were growing up thirty years ago. You couldn't have
gotten away from having said that. It would have been
like vh VHS bars and the clip if we had
spliced it in the videos and everything. But now here's
a problem.
Speaker 4: Crazy, I know it's real.
Speaker 5: So we're going to.
Speaker 1: And I'll preview Steve one game each go.
Speaker 5: Let's look at the first game Denver Broncos, New England Patriots.
You know the look ahead line a week ago, the
betable line before the semi, before the divisional round was
going to be Denver by one to two points, and
I still think they would have been a slight favorite
this week with Knicks bow Knicks at quarterback. But Nix
is of course out, so now it's almost a touchdown adjustment.
It was five and a half, almost six, down to five.
Now we're seeing four and a half. The It's been
a little bit of buyback on Denver, and I agree
with that buyback. I think this is an overreaction. It's
not what bow Knicks is worth, it's what the difference
is between him and the backup. And if you look
at the career numbers to Jared Stindham, he's actually averaged
a yard for pass more seven and a half yards
per pass versus six and a half for Knicks. I know,
different players, slightly different teams with the Raiders and Broncos
for those, but his QB rating is like an eighty
eight and a half. Knis is like a ninety completion
percentage similar. Knicks does have a better TD interception ratio.
Stidham hasn't played this year. He hasn't thrown a pass
for two years with the Broncos, but he's been in
the system now for three years, play a lot three
years ago before Nicks. I think it's an overreaction. Home
Dogs are a long term seventy percent play in the
NFL playoffs for almost four decades now, and I think
they're the better defensive team as well. I don't love
this Broncos team. I think they're a phony one seed,
but this isn't the time to fade them. Maybe we
get to fade them in the Super Bowl if they
pull the upset. But I think there's some value with
Denver plus four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, let's stick with the Denver New England game.
I like the under in this game, and I know
it's been bet up to forty two and a half,
but man, I'm trying to put myself in the position
of these coaches. And if you look at New England,
Will Anderson in the Houston Texans lived in Drake May's
house last week. They were all over him. I mean,
Drake May had that horrible fumble at their end that
should have resulted into a score for the other team
for Houston, but ultimately they picked it up. The point
I'm making is Denver is going to put a pass
rush on Drake that could be dangerous, and I think
that from New England's perspective, I see a lot of
Remandre Stevenson wheel routes. I see a lot of running
up the gut. I see a lot of six yard outs,
a couple of slants. I think we're going to see
a very conservative game by New England. And I think
New England is going to look at this and say, hey,
we got a backup quarterback on the other side, let's
keep this game moving, let's do eight minute drives. And
I think we're going to see the same with Denver.
Denver is not going to lose this game because Jared's
did him through three interceptions. Denver is going to come
into this game looking to run the ball. Play also
six yard throws, four yard throws, wheel routes, laterals, that
kind of thing. I think we're going to see a
conservative game plan from both of these teams. It's going
to be cold weather. Both teams have got outstanding defenses.
I mean New England in their last four games sixteen
to three, ten and ten deadver secondary is outstanding. I
just feel like both coaches are going to look to
kind of get out of dodge with a W. I
like the under in this game, Joe.
Speaker 4: You want any funny stat I'll give you here.
Speaker 3: Guys, ready, the career numbers for Jared Stidham forty five
point three success rate, six yards per pass play.
Speaker 4: That's better than bo Knicks, well.
Speaker 3: As a forty five percent success rate, and all the
averages just under six yarchds.
Speaker 4: Per pants play.
Speaker 3: The bottom line is coaching matters here, and I think
we have this false sense with New England's defense because
they were able to get to Herbert and they were
able to get the stressed. Those are two of the
worst offensive lines when it comes to pass blocking and
all of the NFL. To me, I think we're looking
at them. There's a whole lot of props in this game.
I think that all correlate together. I think Drake may
interception is up for grabs.
Speaker 4: I think that's over half.
Speaker 3: An interception, and I think Stidham's attempts are going to
be up and over. Steve, you mentioned the yardage for
him throwing this is a top three offensive line in
protecting the quarterback the past, they're they're top three and
pass rush defense. They are not going to allow what
I think is a little bit of an overrated front
now of New England because of the two teams they
just played.
Speaker 4: They're not going to get to Stidham.
Speaker 3: And I think Stidham's also going to have, believe it
or not, the opportunity to go over his rushing prop
which I think was twelve and a half yards.
Speaker 4: The other day.
Speaker 3: It might be a little higher, but it's not He's
got legs, Merril.
Speaker 4: It's not like he.
Speaker 3: Doesn't have the ability to run. And we've already seen
what Sean Payton does with Nicks designing some of those runs.
It actually broke his ankle in that last game. So
I think Stidham over rushing, over attempts, overpassing, and I
think Drake may absolutely has an eye in them this week.
Speaker 5: I love it what I like about the passing props.
Pres he knows even if you like Denver, he could
have a big game passing. As I mentioned, Nicks has
gone over two hundred and six of eight. But then
if they are losing, he probably has a bigger game
pass how as you're playing from behind, so like you
get the best of both worlds with some of those
yardage props.
Speaker 4: Yep.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what thing, though, I wouldn't put it
past Peyton to come out firing right off the bat. No,
I feel like, I feel like they're going to have
a real strong game plan with that first possession, So
you know, I would not be against the over in
the first quarter. I will tell you that. Yeah, even
about ty.
Speaker 5: Press, one of my favorite angles has been those early unders,
and we saw it like in the championship, we talked
about football. We saw in the semi finals Miami O
Miss was three points they scored the first play of
the second quarter. They scored fifty four points the final
three quarters. And as you know, even with Tom Brady
back in the day, they always had those low scoing
first quarters. So it does depend in the game plan.
But I can make that counter argument that they could
be conservative with the new quarterback, right, So I don't know,
but you're right. The wild card is Peyton. You know,
Sean Payton is definitely not conventional. He runs trick plays.
He did an on site kick in the Super Bowl
that basically won the Saints of championship. You know, that
is the real X factor there. But yeah, a lot
of these games teams do start a little more conservative.
This is also, you know, second third playoff game now
for these teams as well.
Speaker 3: And I could see by the way Drake may also
gaining the yardage and having no problem rushing the ball.
I could absolutely see him throwing for his yards too
as well. I think both quarterbacks are poised to have
pretty good passing games in this one, right, Joe, Yeah,
there's no it's just getting colder, but the total keeps
going up.
Speaker 1: So it doesn't look like it's going to be very windy.
No rain and nothing like that's really important. Okay, there
we go. That's our NFL best bets that we're now
going on to the clock two minutes each. Joe will
do the NBA, I'll do the NHL, And although Steve
will not cater to the two minutes because he's making
a very special video that we're in content, we're still
going to have Steve Merrill's college basketball. Joe, you're up first.
Speaker 3: I understand it was a little too professional, you said
yesterday STEVE'SVIO, So I have to cut back on the professionalism,
and I will try to do that. Meantime, let's go
to the NBA here tonight. It's going to kick off
seven o'clock with the Rockets taking on the Pistons. Rockets
couldn't get it done against the Sixers last night, over
time loss for them. Now they got to hop back
on the road head over to Detroit. Who by the way,
we understand now we'll have Kate Cunningham back. This line
over nine three, three and a half. It was bet
up to four. It got as high as five and
a half when Kate Cunningham was announced in but now
it looks like it's settling.
Speaker 4: Right around that four and a half line.
Speaker 3: And listen any which way it cut it, it's one
of the lowest totals on the board tonight. I think
that's for a reason. Could be a little bit of
a rock fight, very physical game here tonight. In that
one the Celtics and Nets. Boy, I don't know how
this is not double digits for the Celtics. Nets are
getting eight and a half. It feels like, yeah, Nets
team total under might be in play here, especially with
who is playing for them in that one. The Sun's
taking on the Hawks. What a fun one, do you know?
Fun trivia? The Suns have not won a game in
Atlanta since twenty fourteen until tonight, of course.
Speaker 4: Kings and Calves, by.
Speaker 3: The way, also going out of tonight Calves laying eleven
eleven and a half Sacramento is just awful?
Speaker 4: People, who are we kidding?
Speaker 3: But Demante Siponis is back in this one, and anytime
he's on the court, the Kings are better. I don't
trust the Calves with that number at home. Thunders should
crush the Pacers, or will they because they're laying sixteen
And if you have blindly been betting the Thunder, you're
likely broke this year against the spread because they don't
often cover numbers like this anymore. Having said that, and
still the Pacers, I would still back the Thunder, Pelicans
and Grizzlies. Pelicans are also terrible, but Zion not on
the injury report? The hell's that all about? Likely going
with the Grizzlies anyway. Nuggets should handle the box, take
the points there, and the Raptors red hot Raptors. I'm
going to back the team total under on them in
that one.
Speaker 4: Press Joe, let's.
Speaker 1: Go to the NHL. And look, we start with Tampa
Bay playing Chicago. Chicago under two and a half team total.
Tampa Bay just doesn't allow teams to score. You go
down the list a one to one, two in regulation,
one one, two to two. That's seven games without a
team getting more than two goals. Chicago did go over
that total yesterday against Caroline, but I think Tampa Bay
holds them under two and a half tonight, Vegas playing Toronto.
This is a tricky one for me, but I do
actually lean on the Vegas Golden Knights tonight there minus
one twenty five. I also like the under in this game,
but I'm laying off of this game completely. I like Dallas.
There's a lot of money coming in on Dallas. If
you're gonna bet Dallas, you gotta bet him now. We
had Dallas for a client bet last night. They completely
dominated that hockey game but lost one nothing, just couldn't
find the net. I think they get it done tonight.
Calgary playing Washington. Don't overthink it. Take the under in
this game. Washington games tend to play to the under
and Calgary will play to the under. Movie board all
your Philadelphia playing Colorado this is another one of those.
Just take Philadelphia team total under two and a half
and don't overthink it. You got Anaheim in Seattle. I
think Seattle is a bet on team moving forward. I
like them. Here is a short number at minus one
point fifteen. Take the Kraken, San Jose and the New
York Rangers. Although I never want to bet the Rangers
over they're playing San Jose. This game is gonna get
well over six and a half goals. San Jose can
score and they can't play defense. I think that game
is a big, big number what all said and done,
and I like the under in the Vancouver, New Jersey game.
Steve Merrill college basketball is yours.
Speaker 5: Gonna look at two national TV games Friday night in
college hoops, both on Fox Sports One. You're eight o'clock
and ten o'clock Eastern games. Just a quicker mind. If
you're liking these video thumbs up, like comment blow, We
read the comments and we reply back here on wager
Talk TV and click subscribe and click that bell for
instant alerts, including my NFL double video for the NFC
and AFC Championship games this weekend, and also college basketball
Top twenty five video starts this Saturday. Don't miss it,
click subscribe, click the bell. First game at eight o'clock
Eastern on Fox Sports One tonight is Marquette at Butler.
Currently Butler about a six point favorite. It hasn't moved
too much. Has seen some money coming on the over
one fifty nine up to one sixty one sixty and
a half, and I agree with the over move here.
These are two teams that play up tempo, fast basketball,
both two of the faster teams in the country as
far as possessions in tempo and also Butler gets to
the free throw line a lot. The Butler does it
from the free throw line this season in a high
percentage of their points from the charity strike. Now, Marquette
not a very good three point shooting team, and Mark
Butler does not give up many threes, so that's my
only concern getting up in over one sixty and a half,
I lean over, but the best way I think to
attack this is a Butler team total up and over
eighty three. If you have access to team totals, take
a look at Butler team total over eighty three tonight.
This could also be a Marquette defense that is a
little fatigued. They snapped their three game losing streak. In fact,
they had lost on nine of their previous ten games
until an overtime win at home Monday one oh five,
one oh four against Providence. They've just been bad defensively
all season. I like the over, but I specifically think
Butler does the heavy lifting. Butler team total over eighty
three probably the best way to attack it. At eight
eastern on Fox Sports One, your late night game at
ten o'clock eastern is Utah State Colorado State, and we've
got the Aggies versus the Rams here as you see
on the screen, and we're gonna have Utah State currently
opening about a three and a half point favorite, up
to four and a half five now, we've definitely seen
some money come in on the road favorite. Yet the
total has dropped in this game one fifty two down
to one forty eight, even a one to forty seven
and a half showing and that makes sense. Colorado State
is one of the slowest half court teams in the nation.
It's like watching paint dry. Three hundred and sixty five
teams in college basketball this year, they played the third
slowest tempo, the third fewest possessions of anybody in the country.
That's why this total has dropped, yet the pointspread has
gone higher. A little counterintuitive because obviously, if Colorado State's
going to control the tempo in this game, they probably
at the edge. What gets a little bit tricky though,
they have the second best three point shooting offense in
the country, and they take a lot of threes, so
it is a little surprising their games are so low scoring,
and it will depend that they can dictate their tempo.
But these are two very good offensive teams. In fact,
the effective field goal percentage they both rank top twenty
in the country, and two point shooting they're both top fifty.
As I mentioned, Colorado State the second best three point
shooting team. They play slow, but they're an efficient offense,
and they do give up a lot of threes. And
Utah State also hits the three point shot. So this
is one of those moves. I'm gonna disagree with the
total move here. I know it seems like it's a
big total for a slow paced team, but I think
Utah State Colorado State might be a little higher scoring
than expected. Take a look over one forty eight. In
that one one forty seven and a half one forty eight,
and I think that actually correlates to Colorado State, even
though they play slower. I think if they're trading baskets here,
they can hang. I disagree with the money moves in
this one. I would lean Colorado State plus the four
and a half five and over one forty eight now
that the line is lower. That's your ten o'clock Eastern game,
also on Fox Sports one. And don't forget you want
my strongest best bets for Friday Night two, NBA one
college and any bonus college free play on my page
right now, Steve merriwager Talk dot com and get there
quicker with a shortcut you see on your screen wt
dot buzz slash sm. I haven't missed an NBA Best
bet in nearly ten days. It's been ten days since
I missed an NBA best bet. We swept the board
so far this week. I've got two more going tonight
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Speaker 1: Brilliant stuff, Steve Merrill, awesome. Okay, mail back section. So
what you guys who don't know about the segment. We
go through some of the comments and it's we don't
do any research ahead of time, so I'm just reading
them as they come. Joe Corey Mosar, Yeah, right. I
would like to know who Joe's favorite college basketball team
is to win the championship. And I'll ask you the
same question, Steve, because I know you're ex that the sport.
Speaker 3: I have two future bets that I made, and one
of them is on Florida to repeat, and the other
one was Arizona. So those are the two teams that
I think have enough depth and talent come March to
be able to.
Speaker 4: Make a serious run at it.
Speaker 3: A lot of things got to break your way, but
both those teams were a lot better priced just a
month ago than they are right now. But I like
Arizona and Florida here to have a real shot.
Speaker 4: At going back to back. Steve.
Speaker 5: I mean, Arizona's a really good team. And it's interesting,
Priise because I'm starting my college basketball Top twenty five
video for every Saturday. I'll be recording that today on Friday.
So I don't normally look at the rankings because they
don't mean much. But when I'm doing the videos I
do for football and basketball, and I noticed today as
I was preparing for that later that Arizona's getting every
single first place vote. I think they're getting all sixty
one first place votes in the AMP. That's a grocery
store here in the United States. By the way, that's
why I'm laughing AMP the AP poll because they're nineteen
and oh they're undefeated. I get it. But I've all
season long and I still have Michigan as the best
team in the country at seventeen and one, and they're
third in the polls. I mentioned this yesterday on the show,
and they play Ohio State tonight. By the way, they're
the number one two point shooting offense and the number
one two point shooting defense. Let that sink in. There
are three hundred and sixty five teams and they're the
best at both offense and defense from two point range.
And that's the consistency factory.
Speaker 4: Know.
Speaker 5: You live by the three you died by the three,
and to win six games in a row in the tournament.
It's really hard to be on every game where I
think Michigan's got that size of consistency and they're just
great at both ends of the court. So I think
Michigan's the team to beat. Not gonna get a ton
of value with them, but that's my pick right now.
If you're going a little bit deeper down the list,
I'd like to look for balanced teams. I'll go down
like teams that are outside like the top twenty even
And first of all, you know, last year nobody believed
in the ACC. They had a decent run of the tournament.
SEC got fourteen of the sixteen teams, and you know,
so you got to be careful now that when conference
plays sometimes teams look better or worse than they really are.
A team I'm talking about in my video this week,
and they play Houston also Texas Tech right now, early
top twenty team. I think they're very balanced as well,
really good offensive team. And as Joe knows, you know,
the old saying defense wins championships is kind of true.
But in the modern era, all these national champs in
football basketball, they're all great offensive teams. I've got Texas
Tech as a top ten offense right now.
Speaker 4: Yep, great question.
Speaker 1: Corey Aubrey writes, absolutely love Steve on the show. Funny
as hell, Douglas, you guys, crack me up. De Sosa
best show on Earth. That's really great. Arthur Hernandez writes,
if the tickets are four to one on Seattle, why
is that line not moving? Art did discuss this a
little earlier. Volume does not move lines? People move lines.
Joe is ageless. Guess who wrote that, Joe rn Airey.
Speaker 3: Girl, Celeste, Yes, there you go the last.
Speaker 1: We love you, Celeste, thank you for being with us
every day. Uh yeah, the parlay last night was trash.
That was from c Hebard. Yeah it was, we own it.
Mind boggle rights. This is the best betting show ever.
Steve Barrell brings a level headed anchor to this group.
Uh have you ever been called an anchor before?
Speaker 4: I like that.
Speaker 5: I love it. I have been called Will Ferrell, as
Joe knows several he was an anchor man. So I'm
starting to see the six degrees of Will Ferrell there.
I'll bring that in whenever possible.
Speaker 4: I like that.
Speaker 1: Shout out to Larry Hart unknown entity. De Beck likes
the Pats Rams money line parlay lockett In, he says, okay,
and great show is always a Mike T. I love
Round Robins, I hate Round Robins. Who but that's okay.
Speaker 5: I know, I'm sure they make a good burger.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't it all seriousness. Let's just stop
right there. Do you make parlay bet Steve like in
your own personal life?
Speaker 5: No, the only time a parlay is a good play,
and I occasionally make them. Well, I'll tell the story.
Nobody allowed you to do these anymore when they correlated. Yeah,
and you can still sometimes, like on a side total
in the same game I mentioned that Colrad of State game.
They play extremely slow, So you know, sometimes you have
a slow team versus a fast team in college hoops,
and it's going to probably depend on who can control
to dictate the tempo. Slow is gonna favor one team
fast the other. So you can do a side total
parlay because the outcome is correlated. The story I'll tell
real quick though, about twenty some years ago some of
the offshores were dumb enough to let you correlate parlays
in college football when they be playing those blowout games
would take you know, the minus forty eight over fifty four,
the plus forty eight under fifty four in the same
college football game, and most books wouldn't let you do that.
Even twenty years ago a few still let you do it.
That did not last long as you can imagine. But yeah,
correlated parlay usually side total, same game is the only
time it would actually make sense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I almost never bet parlays myself. I have
did a few money line parlays this year in NFL.
I did go through a period and there was one
season in the NFL where I took the Peyton Manning
Marvin Harrison Drin James'.
Speaker 5: Team.
Speaker 1: I took the Colts and the over parlayed them every week,
and that's correlated.
Speaker 5: That's because they were good. They were a great offensive team.
Speaker 1: So that makes sense time and I did that like
for a whole season and it went really, really well.
I have tried to find those bets since I tried
to do it with The Greatest Show on Earth with
the Rams it didn't work, and I have tried to
do it with the Dent Detroit Lions over the last
few years, and it also they were going over but
they weren't covering or they were covering and it wasn't
going over and I couldn't find that rhythm that I
was able to get that one year with the Colts.
But I don't normally do parlays either.
Speaker 3: What about you, Joe, It's gotta be I mean the occasional,
you know, like I said during the NFL season, the
five team money line parlay round robin is is something
you like when you've got some favorites that you think
can run a table and maybe a big dog outside
of that. The other big thing that's become popular now though,
are these same game teasers, Meryl, And when you're down
to these limited games and you've got like, let's say
Seattle coming up right, Seattle laying two and a half,
ran Is getting two and a half. There's not really
a traditional long teaser in the Patriot and Bronco game
to utilize, but there is, uh, you know, a situation
where you could get the rams up to eight and
a half. And if you think there's gonna be more
points or less points in this game, you know, sometimes
those same game teasers, as long as you're not getting
killed at minus one thirty five or something I've never
want to say.
Speaker 5: I was just say Press real quick that something else
has gonna point out to the same game parlays that
like FanDuel, you know, are big on and stuff and
they let you do a lot of those are correlated
and people are like, oh, I've got an edge, but
they're giving you their payout, so you still you're not
getting odds still, So like crazy, just because something's correlated,
you got to make sure you're getting the true odds still, right.
So there's so many different layers to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, teaser and play minus one forty, Like that's.
Speaker 5: Not When you said that, it made me think about it,
Like the teasers are great mathematical plays, but they've been
priced out now at minus one forty. The other thing
I'll say Press about parlay is one thing I left
out there is a useful You're not changing the math,
like you're getting skewed on the payoffs more than if
you just play the game straight long term. But there
is a use for him from a money management perspective,
And what kills ninety nine percent of the losing sports
betters out there is that they don't manage their money correctly.
They're just here and there they don't have an edge.
You know. So if you want to have fun every
weekend and play a five or ten dollars parlay, you know,
like here on the show, if you want to put
five or ten bucks down on our three or fourteen
parlay every day, nothing wrong with that because from a
risk reward perspective, it's a pretty good deal because you're
not risking a lot. You could have that big payday
and that's like Joe was talking about with the five games.
Maybe on an NFL Saturday or Sunday, but once again,
you're not changing the math. If you're serious from an
investment perspective, you should be playing all of our best
bets at wager talk dot com a four percent of
bank or whatever we're rating them, including.
Speaker 1: Our parlay of the day. We're going to call it
a parlay of the day. Play him straight, Steve, Joe,
thanks for this, guys. Steve Merril will be with us
Thursday and Friday of next week. He will be hosting
the entire Super Bowl week start to finish. I will
not be around.
Speaker 5: So I made that face as she screamed off, I
was already making that. I went right as I did
that people have been backing up and watching. If you're
watching this now, you got to back it up and
watch it. I literally did that and it morphed into.
Speaker 4: Wow, outstanding. Yep.
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, man, that super Bowl
week is just gonna be like, it's gonna be forget.
Speaker 4: Like this.
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, what are you?
Speaker 4: And I like, oh, that's double.
Speaker 5: We're you? You love that that? I like the loo
Isaac from the Love Boat.
Speaker 4: Yeah, to.
Speaker 1: Put that out, guys of the comments section.
Speaker 5: I don't know what that one was a cap gun.
That sounds like we did the dance. Mann did the.
Speaker 1: Dam that's right? Sorry, what did this? What is the
leather Tuscadero did this?
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, that was another Happy Days Reford.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you're digging deep. You're digging deep, you're going away.
Speaker 1: Back tip of the Malachi crunch.
Speaker 5: I knew that one, all right. And then President jumping.
Speaker 1: Jump the shot and and I well know, I'm actually
enjoying you.
Speaker 3: If you can do the rerun dance on the way
out would be fantastic.
Speaker 5: You have a seat moving