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Speaker 1: It's last called Sunday.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone on the prop Queen area, Epstein. It's

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week sixteen in the NFL. You guys know that week

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sixteen now means that we've got some teams that literally

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could care lex. We've also gotten teams that are going

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to be in playoff contention and need or potentially have

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the chance to win in clinch today. A lot of

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great handicappers coming on the show. Y'all need the Greek

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going to join us. Marco has been on an absolute

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tear and we've got, of course John Murray joining us

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from over at the West Gate in Las Vegas. Sorry,

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we had some technical difficulties before, but now I'm not

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making my mimosa.

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Speaker 1: Even though I do. I didn't over sleep. I was here.

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I actually have a screenshot of it. But streamyard, I guess,

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was frozen. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'll give you props at the end of the show.

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We've got contract incentives, some that could hit today. There

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are props that we need. I've got three that I

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absolutely love, and Shawn Michael enough.

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Speaker 1: I had the screen chot to prove that I was

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here at ten fifty eight am and.

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Speaker 2: My streamyard was just not worth it. Thank you, Tyrone,

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thank you. I hope you all also got the chance

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to see what I did yesterday because my siblings and

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I did a hilarious JC Penny photo shoot. If you

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guys ever did it, it's really funny from when you

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were kids, and we kind of just recreated all those

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go to my ex page a real epscene you'll see,

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but no one cares. Let's get to some props, let's

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get to some sides, totals, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And you know the man to do it.

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Speaker 2: He just came on the prop Queen pod last week

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and it was super profitable to have him on the show.

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Speaker 1: Yanni the Greek joining us as always.

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Speaker 2: Sorry you had to wait a little bit, but good

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things come to those who wait.

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Speaker 1: The Phillies hat is on. We are lockedloaded, ready to go, Yanni,

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how was yesterday for you?

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Speaker 3: Just like the whole week's been going four and zero

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in NFL and college football nine and two this entire week.

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It's that time of year with college football and NFL,

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like the market's going to be changed between now and

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the Super Bowls. It's totally different than it was over

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the last seven, eight, nine, ten weeks and there's a

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lot of opportunity on the board. Today's a perfect example.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yesterday and today is at least yesterday. College

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football playoff teams all care today. There are certain teams

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that we have to handicap.

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Speaker 1: Do they care? Do they not care?

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Speaker 2: What's the motivational level? How do you change your handicap

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in week sixteen?

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Speaker 3: It's noise. It's noise. You can't quantify it. Like, there's

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fifty plus players that are going to affect each game

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on both sides of the field, Like, how do I

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know how each and every one of them feels about

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playing today? You've got to be able to push that

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noise out of the way and just stick to the

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data and try to obviously factor in if they're going

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to be motivated. But these are professional athletes, make it.

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Speaker 2: How much are you focusing more on playing the games

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that matter, the teams that matter, versus the ones that don't.

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Speaker 3: No, I don't really look at that honestly, only because

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you know those must win games. Everybody knows must win,

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must win. You must not be all that good if

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you're in that situation. Like we know the line shape

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towards the must wins, We know about the games that

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don't matter. Like all that is, We've had all week

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to talk about that, like sports radio, social media content,

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like we all the narrative has been said about which

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teams care, which teams don't care. But if you look

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at the betting line, that's all that matters. Like at

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the end of the day, it's all noise except for

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that number. Based on that number is their value on

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TEAMMA or Team B. I try to keep it simple.

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I'm not that smart, so I try not to go later.

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Speaker 2: You because aside for one game in the one o'clock

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Eastern timeslate, the other games all feature teams that are eliminated.

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It's about the Panthers, a divisional rivalry. They're trying to

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each fight for the division they play. They face each

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other twice in the next three weeks. This week, not

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next week's week after, they'll finish the season. How do

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you see that game where we did see the Panthers

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at home as a dog and a key number of three.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Carolina got some short money and no surprise

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home dog divisional play. I haven't touched that game personally.

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I think the line's set right about where it should be.

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I mean, on paper, Tampa Bay is much better. I

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have them about twentieth power rating. I have Carolina under twenty,

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like they're in the bottom five teams. But on a

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neutral field, I would make Tampa Bay about four four

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and a half points better than Carolina. But I add

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in about one point eight two points for Carolina, like

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I say, just edged off to two, So that brings

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Tampa Bay below three, where they should be about a

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two to two and a half point favor the NFL,

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like the signs are so tight. If you're getting a

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half a point a point of value on a key number,

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that's as good as it's going to get in ev

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So for me, it's a Carolina or pass in this spot,

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I haven't bet it because I would have liked to

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have three and a half. Like if I could get

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three and a half, I bet it blindly. That's not

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going to be available. I don't think. If anything, it'll

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probably go to two and a half in some shops,

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which may force me then to tease Tampa up, which

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I don't want to. I mean, then tease Carolina, which

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i'd like to do. So that's while I'm sitting back.

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If I may take Carolina plus three, I haven't decided yet,

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but I'm waiting to see if it gets to two

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and a half because I'm three seeing the plus three

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juice the minus one fifteen minus one twenty, So next

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move means two and a half. That means I could

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get them. It falls into my plus ev teasers and

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I could tease them up to eight and a half.

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That to me, would make the ideal bet. If I

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could get Carolina at plus eight and a half on

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a teaser in a meaningful game like this, That's the

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bet I'm trying to make. Otherwise I just may let

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it go if gun ahead. If I had to bet it,

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I'd take Carolina plus three only because I don't think

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it should be three. Should be about a two point

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line move about. I'm a two point road favorite, and

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you know, getting a home team at plus money, i'd

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look the dogar pass.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of line move, Bengals at the Dolphins, the line

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did flip from Miami minus one and a half on

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Sunday to now catching four and a half at home

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the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: The chat asking is since an toast.

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Speaker 3: Listen, that line's gonna keep climbing. We did see some

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take back at four and a half because it's all

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one side, and Cincinnati is one of the most one

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sided bet teams today. In fact, not only are you

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gonna hear it from anyone that comes on and says,

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like when John Murray comes on later and gives his needs,

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I'm pretty sure Miami will be one of them in

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the early games because it's just so much Cincinnati action.

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I don't I don't see it. I don't see the

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reason why I feel comfortable laying three and a half

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four with a team like Cincinnati on the road. Again,

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this is a team that's won two of seven games. Like,

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what confidence do I have laying chalk with them when

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I see Miami the splits. At least I know they

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play much better at home, so there is some slight

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home field advantage. And I get it. Cincinnati's coming off

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getting blown out, getting shut out, so they should be

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motivated to you know, after an embarrassing game. But yeah,

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not not a sexy game at all. Another one I

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haven't bet. If I had to bet it, I would

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look again to the home dog, to Miami or pass.

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But better games on the board than that.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about those better games. Which games did stand

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out to you?

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Speaker 4: Yannie?

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Speaker 3: Kansas City stood out. I talked about that all week.

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That was just so ridiculous. I love placing bets where

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I know I placed the good bet, and I don't

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care about the outcome. Obviously I want to win, but

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as long as I do my job, I know long

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term what's going to happen. The numbers don't lie, And

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with Kansas City, I didn't think that three was going

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to be available on Sunday. It's now three and a

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half at the sharpest shops. So my reasoning was on point.

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And the reasoning is simple. Who cares that Mahomes not in?

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The drop off isn't that significant based on Mahomes twenty

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twenty five. Forget Mahomes Hall of Fame Mahomes twenty twenty five.

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Mahomes is a different story, and the drop off isn't

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that significant. But then you're gonna tell me, Okay, but

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they're not motivated, they're not playing for anything. What are

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you talking about? They're playing Tennessee Titans. Who wants to

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lose the Tennessee. They haven't won a single home game

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all of the year. You want to be the team

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that loses the Tennessee because you're starting quarterbacks, not in like,

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what are the rest of you guys worthless? I don't

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get it. Like to me, that's just nonsense. This is

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power rating wise, it should be double digits. We already

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know because fortunately the guy's over at the Westgate have

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the guts to put out an opinion on a number.

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And what did they tell us? They told us that

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Kansas City was a ten and a half point favorite

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in the look aheadline. So now you're gonna shade it

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seven and a half eight points because of what the

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drop off the mahomes or the motivation, because I don't

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know has Tennessee been playing for anything since September? I

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don't think so. So for me, I like Kansas City.

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That one jumps out at me. What else jumped out

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at me? The Ravens. The Ravens, I mean the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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We'll talk about your Ravens later. The Jackeville Jaguar. I know.

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The Jaguars are the sexy pig. I get it, And

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I worry about that, especially that Denver's going through that

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key number of three. I didn't want to see that.

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That scares me a little bit. But I've been saying again,

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it's not a disrespect of Denver. I could only tell

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you what the numbers. The number show, and when I

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look at Denver Broncos, they've had a very easy stlengch

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of schedule. Only one team has had an easier strength

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of schedule than the Denver Broncos. And yet offensively there's

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only ten teams that are worse efficiency wise. So it's

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the defense that gets it done for the Denver Broncos.

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And this week with Jacksonville, I think they're gonna have

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a little bit of a problem with that total up

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as high as forty seven. It also shows me they

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expect some points because the look ahead was forty five.

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So if Jacksonville's gonna be able to score, they're gonna

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be able to stay in this game. I think they'll

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be able to do that three and a hook. I

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like it. It sounds square like getting Jacksonville three and

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a half. To me, sounds square, But I guess the

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books must be getting Denver money or it must be

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really sharp. I haven't seen any of the accounts I

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work with, but I was surprised to see it up

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to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Just so everyone knows.

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Speaker 2: For playoff contention, Jags they clinch a playoff berth with

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a win and either a Houston or Indie loss. The

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Broncos can clinch the division with a win and a

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Chargers loss. They can also clinch one seed with a

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lot of things happening. The Broncos can clinch a number

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one seed and home field with a win, Chargers at

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Pats and Bill's lost. So there are a lot of

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things that have to happen, but the Broncos can potentially

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clinch a number one seed at home field advantage. But

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they certainly can clinch the division today.

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Speaker 3: Albert just asked favorite play listen. I got a five

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percent going today. We're going for another one, a third

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in a row, so I can't give that that's obviously

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the best play, but I'm going to give you a

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premium prop. I just sent out the subscribers that I bet.

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Don't really use premiums and the props because the lines

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move too quickly. But I love this one, and it's

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Keon Coleman Buffalo under one and a half receptions. I

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betted at minus one ten, I bet at minus one

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twenty and bett at minus one twenty five out five

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minutes ago. There's still one twenties out there. I don't

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think it got into the BOT yet, so you may

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be able to get it. But under one and a

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half receptions.

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Speaker 1: Can Cleveland third least receiving yards per game allowed to

240
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wide receivers.

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Speaker 3: So that makes all the problem today.

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Speaker 1: That makes a ton of sense.

243
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Speaker 2: You said you were going to bring up my Ravens

244
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in the pass is asking about it as well. The

245
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Ravens have not looked great, but they looked great last

246
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week against the Cincinnati Bengals.

247
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Speaker 1: How do you trust them?

248
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Speaker 3: I have to look at the numbers and this is

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what it tells me. That Baltimore has a top ten

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offense and a top ten defense and a tougher strength

251
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of schedule than the New England Patriots. So if they're

252
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only negative for Baltimore as the record, and you have

253
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to give them a slight pass there because of the

254
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quarterback situation, I mean, that's the bottom line for a

255
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:35,960
New England. Again, they're legit. It's just that statistically they're

256
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,600
not impressive. Other than may be in top five and

257
00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:43,360
passing success rate offensively and defensively, this team isn't barely

258
00:11:43,399 --> 00:11:46,559
in top fifteen, but they're winning football games. Why Because

259
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they're winning the close games. That's unsustainable. I've watched football

260
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long enough to know those teams tend to get knocked

261
00:11:54,159 --> 00:11:57,120
out of the playoffs if they don't get you know,

262
00:11:57,399 --> 00:12:00,240
if they make it there, and they usually do, because

263
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,440
you can't keep winning like that. There's just so much

264
00:12:02,519 --> 00:12:06,840
randomness to one score games. And on paper Baltimore is

265
00:12:06,879 --> 00:12:08,600
the better team. Are they going to go out there

266
00:12:08,639 --> 00:12:11,279
and win the football game? You know they could play

267
00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,120
four hours later it would be a different result. So

268
00:12:13,159 --> 00:12:15,840
I don't know that, but I do know on paper

269
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,879
Baltimore's better offensively, better defensively, has home field advantage, had

270
00:12:20,879 --> 00:12:24,799
the better strength of schedule. Everything points that Baltimore should

271
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,639
be higher than a three point favorite. I make them

272
00:12:27,639 --> 00:12:29,519
about four and a half in this spot, believe it

273
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,919
or not, so I think there's value on Baltimore. It

274
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,440
worries me a little bit that I'm starting to see

275
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,080
risk pile up on Baltimore public like in the side

276
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,799
I do as well, but the market's reflecting it. It's

277
00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:44,639
up to three and a half at the shops I

278
00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,679
respect most, and that's what I want to see when

279
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,120
I get down at early number. I want to see

280
00:12:50,159 --> 00:12:52,679
me getting closing line value, and if you got down

281
00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,080
early on Baltimore, you're getting that. So I like what

282
00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,759
I'm seeing there if you like the Baltimore sign. But

283
00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,919
I can't fold anyone for taking New England. New England's

284
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,919
been getting the job done, winning football games, but they're

285
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,399
not raking you much money ats because they're not winning

286
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,360
by margin. And like I said, the stats just aren't

287
00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:13,879
that impressive. They're at eleven and three football team that's

288
00:13:13,919 --> 00:13:17,639
one game over five hundred ats. They haven't surprised the market,

289
00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,799
they haven't surprised the odds makers meeting. They're just winning

290
00:13:20,879 --> 00:13:22,840
with the record. You see it in college football all

291
00:13:22,879 --> 00:13:25,120
the time, these ten to one teams that are ranking

292
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,600
top twenty five that would be forty point dogs to

293
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:30,919
Ohio State and they get exposed when the playoffs come around.

294
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,639
Speaker 1: You've been crushing these primetime games, Yanni.

295
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,759
Speaker 2: It's all over bet on it at wager talk that

296
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:37,799
you have had a great season betting.

297
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:38,559
Speaker 1: The primetime games.

298
00:13:38,919 --> 00:13:41,799
Speaker 2: Last week you said it was too many points Philip

299
00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,960
Rivers coming back facing Seattle, and you were right by

300
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:45,360
a lot.

301
00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:47,919
Speaker 1: I mean, that was an easy cover for Indianapolis.

302
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,759
Speaker 2: Now the book says, okay, we see you, Philip Rivers

303
00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,200
Monday Night football. The Niners are only laying six and

304
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,679
a half on the road at those colts. Now is

305
00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,679
it too much or is it now?

306
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:00,200
Speaker 3: You know?

307
00:14:00,399 --> 00:14:01,320
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the claps?

308
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:01,519
Speaker 4: Now?

309
00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:04,320
Speaker 3: You missed the boat like you had a really good

310
00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,399
spot to make money. I see it in MMA all

311
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,759
the time in the UFC, where a fighter's undervalued and

312
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,240
we bet him for three or four spots, and then

313
00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,360
he gets a name recognition, hype fight of the night,

314
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,759
and all of a sudden everyone wants to bet them.

315
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,440
But unfortunately the market's already caught up and corrected itself.

316
00:14:22,639 --> 00:14:25,679
Perfect example, Morob. You had two years to make money

317
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,720
with Morob. The last year and a half you've overpaid.

318
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,200
You may have made some money, but you've overpaid. You

319
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,720
haven't gotten any kind of discount. That's the problem I

320
00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:37,080
have with Indianapolis on Monday Night that you already had

321
00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:41,279
your opportunity where they were misspriced based on the drop

322
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,879
off with the quarterback situation. That's no longer the case.

323
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,399
But you have a San Francisco team that's coming off

324
00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:51,360
four straight wins, four st right covers where they were

325
00:14:51,519 --> 00:14:55,039
heavily favored in most of those games. I think because

326
00:14:55,039 --> 00:14:59,600
of that, you're getting a few more higher number than

327
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:04,080
you would otherwise, You're still getting some line value. On Indianapolis,

328
00:15:04,919 --> 00:15:07,840
the problem is they played so hard last week and

329
00:15:08,559 --> 00:15:11,480
came up short with a team that this is where

330
00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,799
the motivation matters. Like you came up a big game,

331
00:15:15,879 --> 00:15:18,000
you showed up, you were at home. You didn't get

332
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,320
the w though, that's the problem. Now you got to

333
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,879
get up again and there's really nothing to play. I mean,

334
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,799
you know, obviously something to play for, but like you

335
00:15:25,879 --> 00:15:29,960
got Rivers back there. Then in the head, I take

336
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,360
the Colts because I do think the line's a little

337
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,480
bit high. I haven't bet this game. Uh yeah, we'll

338
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,799
see what happens ween now on tomorrow. Better games today

339
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,960
than that. But if I had to bet it right now,

340
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,960
I probably take the points with the Colts, just hoping

341
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,240
the back door stays open.

342
00:15:46,279 --> 00:15:48,840
Speaker 1: Johanni the Greek, I'm sorry I came out a little

343
00:15:48,919 --> 00:15:52,399
late today. I had some technical difficulties apparently, but you

344
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,519
at least give people another opportunity to see you at

345
00:15:55,559 --> 00:15:57,960
new in Eastern time when you're going on on the

346
00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,039
steam room. You also said you have a five percent yep.

347
00:16:01,039 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and forty minutes will be in there. In fact,

348
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,960
I've been holding off ordering my coffee because to do this. Yeah,

349
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:08,679
I've been so.

350
00:16:08,879 --> 00:16:11,559
Speaker 1: Can you do the energy drink first, then the coffee.

351
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 3: No, I don't on the energy. I go I down

352
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,159
thirty uh grams of protein roller fast and then I

353
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,279
start my coffee every day, and today I just had

354
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,200
so much going on I haven't even been able to

355
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,000
do that, so I'm not gonna make it. I like

356
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,320
making my own, so I'm going to order it actually,

357
00:16:28,759 --> 00:16:30,919
and uh yeah, I have like twenty minutes in between.

358
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:32,840
Then the steam room starts at nine. We're gonna go

359
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,759
into the kickoff, go through these NFL games. I love

360
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,720
this board. Today we're staying selective, but I like what's

361
00:16:39,759 --> 00:16:42,039
already in there. I'm gonna keep firing chriss.

362
00:16:42,039 --> 00:16:43,799
Speaker 1: He loves the board today. It's an ugly one, like

363
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:45,480
a lot of teams that we think don't care.

364
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 3: But Yanny, I'm gonna stick around. Hopefully John Murray comes

365
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,759
on next and share some information. That's gold. That's gold.

366
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 1: It is the step over at the super books called Yanni,

367
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,720
thank you so much. We'll see at the steam room

368
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:56,080
at noon.

369
00:16:56,399 --> 00:16:57,759
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me Ariel.

370
00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: As Yanni said, coming on the show now is our

371
00:17:01,559 --> 00:17:04,039
very good friend who joins the show every Saturday. And

372
00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:06,559
it's so nice to have waited for four minutes of

373
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:09,839
a little bit of delay. John Murray joining us from

374
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:11,440
the super Book at the Westgate.

375
00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 4: Hi, jam every Sunday. I joined the show Saturday, you said, Saturday.

376
00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:20,079
I did, Oh my god, a lot of sorts this week.

377
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:20,799
What's wrong with you?

378
00:17:21,039 --> 00:17:24,279
Speaker 1: I'm at my parents' house. The days don't exist. I was.

379
00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:27,119
I felt like yesterday was a Thursday for some reason.

380
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,599
Today's Sunday. He's on every Sunday. I'm on every Sunday.

381
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,279
I am certainly not on on Saturdays. Kelly's tried and

382
00:17:34,319 --> 00:17:36,599
I said, no, ma'am. I take at least one day

383
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:37,200
off a week.

384
00:17:37,599 --> 00:17:40,200
Speaker 4: Good for you. Who does the show Saturday? Is that Kelly?

385
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,039
Your friend's Kelly Kelly. She's a hard worker. I don't

386
00:17:43,039 --> 00:17:44,240
think she has any days off.

387
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,039
Speaker 1: No days off for Kelly in Vegas, the world. No,

388
00:17:47,319 --> 00:17:50,799
she's at your dad's and she never stopped she took

389
00:17:50,839 --> 00:17:53,160
Christmas offish.

390
00:17:52,599 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 4: She never stopped sweating these She never stopped sweating these

391
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,480
games either. If you notice that.

392
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,759
Speaker 1: She went to bed last night, though she went early

393
00:18:00,839 --> 00:18:02,559
to bed. She said, she said, well.

394
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,079
Speaker 4: That college game last night was pretty good. That was

395
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,039
pretty good stuff. You know, you wouldn't want to miss

396
00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:11,559
a good competitor keeper. It's real competitive. I didn't even

397
00:18:11,599 --> 00:18:13,680
know that JMU had covered until this morning. When I

398
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,079
got into work, I was like, oh, great.

399
00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 2: Watching the NFL game. I had a pretty good game

400
00:18:19,759 --> 00:18:22,200
that the NFL scriptwriters did really good job. I'm sure

401
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:22,759
he saw.

402
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 4: That I saw. I did see the final score. I

403
00:18:26,519 --> 00:18:26,960
did see the.

404
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,839
Speaker 1: Fun Chris Thurston, our good friend CT bet Chris theory

405
00:18:31,839 --> 00:18:36,880
that the Ravens are going to win today because the

406
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,599
the NFL wants to make sure it's Ravens Steelers to

407
00:18:39,599 --> 00:18:42,319
close out the last game of the season for the division.

408
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,519
And then of course loser goes home. So I always

409
00:18:45,559 --> 00:18:46,000
need one.

410
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,799
Speaker 4: They need one Sunday Night game for like Week eighteen.

411
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,079
You know, all the games basically suck, but they have

412
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,680
to have one good game for Sunday Night football. There's

413
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,000
always one game that they put into that slot that

414
00:18:59,079 --> 00:19:00,000
decides a division.

415
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 2: And yeah, it's not even as if the team makes

416
00:19:03,079 --> 00:19:05,480
the wild card. If they lose, the loser goes home.

417
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:06,599
Speaker 3: I think.

418
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,799
Speaker 4: I think the Chargers play the Broncos Week eighteen as well,

419
00:19:11,559 --> 00:19:12,400
and that could be.

420
00:19:12,519 --> 00:19:15,279
Speaker 2: That could also result in the team making the playoffs,

421
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,400
you know, like the loser could still make the playoffs,

422
00:19:17,559 --> 00:19:18,839
not the loser.

423
00:19:18,599 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 4: Would still be a wild card. That's a good.

424
00:19:20,319 --> 00:19:23,039
Speaker 1: Point, right, So it could be riven Steelers to end

425
00:19:23,039 --> 00:19:23,319
the year.

426
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 2: But yesterday I felt very similar to that with the

427
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,559
Bears and the Packers. By the way, after that game,

428
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,480
now that the Bears are in the lead for that division,

429
00:19:31,519 --> 00:19:35,240
how did the Westgate super Book look at that division

430
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:36,799
between the Packers and the Bears.

431
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,759
Speaker 4: Well, I'll have to look at that because I don't know.

432
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,319
I didn't watch one second of the Packers Bears game,

433
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,240
but I can look at up numbers. We have the

434
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,480
divisions closed right now, but I know the Bears a

435
00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:52,799
huge win for them. Terrible for us obviously, of course

436
00:19:52,799 --> 00:19:56,039
it's NFL not what we wanted at all. But I

437
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,599
understand that they scored it. They kicked the field goal

438
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,599
and they got an on side's kick. Is that correct?

439
00:20:01,599 --> 00:20:05,559
Because the kid, the kid with a stupid helmet fumbled it. Great,

440
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,359
and then they won. They got a fourth down touchdown?

441
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,119
Is that what happened.

442
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 2: It was two insane catches and I'll get killed William

443
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:14,720
some credit, excellent, and.

444
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 4: Then they won in overtime. I guess Chicago. Now, how

445
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:18,839
long is Jordan Love out for?

446
00:20:19,839 --> 00:20:22,559
Speaker 1: Well, he's got a concussion, so those.

447
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,759
Speaker 4: Guys are those guys play the whole season with a concussion.

448
00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:25,480
That doesn't matter.

449
00:20:26,039 --> 00:20:29,079
Speaker 2: It really just depends on how bad the concussion is

450
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,279
and how badly they want to win next week, I guess.

451
00:20:31,319 --> 00:20:33,200
And the Ravens aren't going to care if they win

452
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,359
tonight because that game doesn't matter next week.

453
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've heard that. I've heard that about Uh, I've

454
00:20:38,519 --> 00:20:41,079
heard that about the Steelers too, where basically the games

455
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,960
that they're playing now don't really matter.

456
00:20:43,599 --> 00:20:46,079
Speaker 1: Well, I think they would like to have one more

457
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,880
game up on the Ravens because if the Ravens did

458
00:20:49,079 --> 00:20:52,400
lose today, which the Steelers won't know that going in,

459
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,960
but the Ravens lost tonight and the Steelers won, they'll

460
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,880
be two games up on the Ravens.

461
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,079
Speaker 4: Gotcha? Okay that makes sense? Yeah? Well, I mean the

462
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:03,000
way people are betting that game here at the Westgate.

463
00:21:03,039 --> 00:21:09,279
At least I'm talking about Steelers and Lions. Nobody thinks

464
00:21:09,279 --> 00:21:11,720
that the Steelers care, apparently because all the money's on

465
00:21:11,759 --> 00:21:14,079
Detroit were I think, I think Pittsburgh will be our

466
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:16,440
biggest need of the whole week in the NFL. Well,

467
00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:22,680
actually green Bay was a big need, but uh anymore Steelers. Uh, yes, Steelers,

468
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:26,000
really big need. We Uh everyone's betting Detroit. Oh wait,

469
00:21:26,079 --> 00:21:29,440
I'm sorry I missed the big need of every week

470
00:21:29,559 --> 00:21:33,720
that never wins. The Raiders. Excuse me. The Raiders are

471
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,480
our biggest need. They are plus fourteen at Houston. Should

472
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,680
be a good game. Uh the but the Steelers, it

473
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,720
looks like the second biggest need is going to be

474
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,799
Pittsburgh in Detroit. And then in the morning, we really

475
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,920
need uh for whatever reason, we could really use the

476
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,240
New York Giants. So a lot of people bet on.

477
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: Playing out in the Giants favor a little bit.

478
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 4: We got you know that court. I like that quarterback

479
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:04,279
in Minnesota nine JJ McCarthy. Yeah, they're bet in Minnesota.

480
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,799
We need the Giants in that one. You're you're hometown.

481
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 1: Giants, Yes, the hometown Giants.

482
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 4: And then I really think, I think tomorrow night, it's

483
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,880
not really it's not like that yet, but I know

484
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,119
the way that these things are bet. I know how

485
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,680
that it goes throughout the weekend. If I see a

486
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,279
five and a half point road favored on Monday Night Football,

487
00:22:24,839 --> 00:22:27,519
which is what we have tomorrow, I know that by

488
00:22:27,559 --> 00:22:30,559
the time that game kicks off, we're going to be

489
00:22:30,599 --> 00:22:34,319
big Indianapolis fans. I'd be very surprised if we're not

490
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:35,799
big Indianapolis fans.

491
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: Tomorrow was a big line adjustment too, because the folks

492
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,480
were catching double digits last week.

493
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: You guys cut that in half this week.

494
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, yeah, I mean I think last week. You know,

495
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,039
it's so easy to say it now, but in retrospect,

496
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,200
what a great bet Indianapolis was last week. And I

497
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,880
didn't say that on the show last Sunday, but looking

498
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,480
back on it, they're at home, they're playing the Colts

499
00:22:56,519 --> 00:22:58,640
with a quarterback that's older than me, it hasn't played

500
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,160
in five years, and they've got the Rams looming four

501
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,039
days later Thursday Night Football and the biggest game of

502
00:23:06,079 --> 00:23:09,279
the season. What a great spot for the Colts. So

503
00:23:09,519 --> 00:23:12,039
great job by anybody that took the fourteen with Indianapolis

504
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,200
last week. That's the kind of spot that I think

505
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,160
savvier people are looking for and finding.

506
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: I was talking to doctor David Chow, who's very good

507
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,119
friends with Philip Rivers. He came on the Prep Queen

508
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,559
pod this week and doctor Chow said that Philip Rivers

509
00:23:25,759 --> 00:23:27,599
said he wasn't even sore after the game.

510
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 4: That's pretty impressive. I mean, I know everybody made their jokes,

511
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,799
but I mean Philip Rivers is kind of cool. I mean, basically,

512
00:23:34,839 --> 00:23:37,799
he's like he's retired to this farm and he's raising

513
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:42,599
like a stable future quarterbacks and he is still capable

514
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,759
of being an NFL quarterback. And that's pretty amazing, honestly. Yeah, yeah,

515
00:23:46,759 --> 00:23:49,160
I don't know what you can say about Philip Rivers

516
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,759
other than full marks. Very very impressive.

517
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: John Oh, I guess we'll ask the soccer question and

518
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,200
we'll go back to football. What do you like in

519
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:57,960
soccer today?

520
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,079
Speaker 4: It's a great question, Thank you sir. There's only one

521
00:24:01,079 --> 00:24:03,640
game today in the EPL, Aston Villa and man United.

522
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,319
Villa is having a really good season, so technically I

523
00:24:07,319 --> 00:24:10,799
should root against them because Liverpool could be going, you know,

524
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,400
battling with them for a position. But they're playing Manchester United.

525
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,920
I can't root for Manchester United. I just cannot do that.

526
00:24:17,279 --> 00:24:19,640
I cannot do that, So I'm rooting for aston Villa,

527
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,640
even though it's probably not in my best interest. That's

528
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,000
being that's being a sports fan, you know how That

529
00:24:25,079 --> 00:24:27,359
is area. Although they're they're like, could you ever root

530
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,680
for the Red Sox. No, yeah, I'm not going to.

531
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,519
Speaker 1: There are actually some like I saw some fans yesterday,

532
00:24:36,599 --> 00:24:40,200
Lions fans that were rooting for the Bears.

533
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 4: So that was individuum.

534
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think when you know, obviously it would

535
00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:47,039
be hard for me to root for the Red Socks.

536
00:24:47,039 --> 00:24:48,839
But if they're having a bad year and the Yankees

537
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,519
have a chance to win the division and the Red

538
00:24:50,559 --> 00:24:52,880
Sox have to be the Toronto Blue Jays for the

539
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,000
Yankees to win the division, I might have to do it.

540
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 4: Well. If like if man United winning a game in

541
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,480
May would give Liverpool the Premiere League, obviously I would

542
00:25:01,519 --> 00:25:02,720
root from Manchester United.

543
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 2: So you got the selfish thing which is today is

544
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,599
actually pretty interesting in the NFL. Selfish is Week sixteen,

545
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,000
seventeen eighteen, when contract incentives come to a head. How

546
00:25:15,039 --> 00:25:19,319
much do you consider the contract incentives when booking these numbers.

547
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 4: I think that I think that Week eighteen there are

548
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,680
a lot of discussions about that from a that's a

549
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,960
good question by that person. So are our we got

550
00:25:28,039 --> 00:25:30,119
we got a team of guys that handle the props

551
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,079
and they're they're really diving into those props. They do

552
00:25:32,079 --> 00:25:34,720
a really good job too. We've done a good job

553
00:25:34,759 --> 00:25:37,000
on NFL player props this season, So good job by

554
00:25:37,039 --> 00:25:39,839
the guys, and definitely the last week of the year,

555
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,440
they're looking at that stuff. Like I feel like there

556
00:25:42,519 --> 00:25:44,720
was a game a couple of years ago where Derek

557
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:51,240
Henry needed one more touchdown? Do you remember that he needed? Yeah?

558
00:25:51,319 --> 00:25:54,400
And he and I remember because I don't ever really

559
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,079
give compliments to their faces, I just yell at them

560
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:05,640
and uh they is everybody, So everybody knew like this

561
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,039
guy just needed to score a touchdown to get some

562
00:26:08,079 --> 00:26:10,960
pretty big bonus things like a million dollars or something,

563
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,720
And no matter what we made the price, they just

564
00:26:13,799 --> 00:26:15,640
kept betting the yes, And of course he got it

565
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,440
and we lost, and I was mad at the guys,

566
00:26:17,839 --> 00:26:20,279
but they do a good job and they definitely look

567
00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:23,599
at that stuff. You know that stuff this week? Yeah?

568
00:26:23,799 --> 00:26:26,799
It is it? Really okay? I thought that was more

569
00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:27,640
of a Week eight team.

570
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 2: You already bet mine. I'm gonna give him at the

571
00:26:29,559 --> 00:26:31,319
end of the show. I already bet mine though, so

572
00:26:31,319 --> 00:26:33,799
I'm okay. But telling you what they are?

573
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:35,519
Speaker 4: Did you text him to me? What are you doing?

574
00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 1: No, I'm not gonna tell you what they are. I'm

575
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:38,359
just gonna tell you that I cared and I bet

576
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:39,039
him that way.

577
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 4: Oh thanks for the heads up. So do me do

578
00:26:41,799 --> 00:26:43,640
me a favor. After they all win, just tell me

579
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:44,279
about how you won.

580
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: Okay, I will, That's exactly what I'll do. And if

581
00:26:46,759 --> 00:26:49,240
they don't, I'm not going to tell you, and then

582
00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:50,480
I'll bet them again next week.

583
00:26:50,559 --> 00:26:54,039
Speaker 2: What about motivation though, jam Like, not even just individual motivation,

584
00:26:54,279 --> 00:26:57,680
just but how much does that factor into the number

585
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,839
When you guys are looking at these games, especially.

586
00:26:59,519 --> 00:27:01,759
Speaker 1: A team like the Chiefs who've been out of it

587
00:27:01,839 --> 00:27:03,839
for the first time now in like eight years.

588
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,079
Speaker 4: It's a It's a great example. I've talked about it

589
00:27:06,079 --> 00:27:08,519
this week on a few shows. Who knows what they're

590
00:27:08,519 --> 00:27:10,359
gonna do? I mean, when was the last time that

591
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,559
Kansas City was playing an NFL game that didn't matter

592
00:27:14,839 --> 00:27:17,039
unless they were just resting for the playoffs. They've done

593
00:27:17,079 --> 00:27:21,400
that before, but this is an actual meaningless game. Our

594
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,400
look aheadline on this game was more like ten and

595
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:27,559
a half ten. Now we're at Chiefs minus three minus one.

596
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:28,039
Speaker 3: Sixteen.

597
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 4: Saw Sharp players on Tennessee plus four early in the week,

598
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,400
but other groups rejected that play. As we got closer

599
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,480
to the weekend, really sharp account laid Kansas City minus

600
00:27:38,519 --> 00:27:40,960
won fifty. There's money both ways, sharp money both ways.

601
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:44,720
I don't know. To me. To me, there's gotta be

602
00:27:44,759 --> 00:27:47,359
somewhere else to put your money. You know. I heard

603
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,480
Yanni in the previous segment talking about that. With the

604
00:27:49,519 --> 00:27:53,640
Indianapolis game, It's like, like, who really knows how motivated

605
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,039
Kansas City is gonna be. Tennessee is a team that

606
00:27:57,079 --> 00:27:59,640
has nothing to play for that's probably better off.

607
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: Wa Yes, they really want to get a home win.

608
00:28:02,079 --> 00:28:03,240
They still haven't gotten a.

609
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 3: Home win yet.

610
00:28:04,839 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 4: Okay, I mean that's fair, But I mean they'd be

611
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,240
better off if we live in a world where we

612
00:28:10,279 --> 00:28:13,039
assume that cam Ward is their future quarterback, which I

613
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,319
figure he is. They're better off losing. Getting a higher

614
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,119
draft pick and then trading it down for a bounty

615
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,079
of draft picks. Is some team that needs a QB

616
00:28:22,759 --> 00:28:24,839
SO and I don't know what, I don't know. It

617
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,079
just seems to me like you got two teams you

618
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,359
don't know their motivation level. Isn't there somewhere else you

619
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,319
could look on this board today? Maybe you got Tampa

620
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,759
Bay Carolina, a game that has enormous division implications, and

621
00:28:38,799 --> 00:28:41,119
you know you're getting a full effort out of both teams.

622
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,279
That's probably more of what I would do.

623
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,759
Speaker 2: Speaking of the Bucks have not covered a spread in

624
00:28:47,799 --> 00:28:50,759
like the last six weeks. How do you see that

625
00:28:50,839 --> 00:28:53,759
game with the Panthers actually catching that key number of three.

626
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,559
Speaker 4: It's an interesting game. You know, Carolina really blew it

627
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,359
last week. You know they had to buy the previous week.

628
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,480
They're at home against I'm sorry they were at in

629
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,000
New Orleans, but they were off of bye week and

630
00:29:04,039 --> 00:29:06,240
they had a chance to take a stranglehold on that

631
00:29:06,279 --> 00:29:09,440
division and they blew it. Now they come back home,

632
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,599
they're a small dog against Tampa. Did see some really

633
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,240
sharp accounts play Tampa at minus two and a half,

634
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,400
but a lot of money on Carolina at plus three.

635
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,119
So looks like a game we just don't want to

636
00:29:23,119 --> 00:29:26,200
see Tampa Bay win by three. That's kind of where

637
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,000
we're at in that game.

638
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,839
Speaker 1: That would be QB talking bad about Baker.

639
00:29:30,319 --> 00:29:33,599
Speaker 4: Kelly's QB is Baker Mayfield. Kelly's kind of you thought

640
00:29:33,599 --> 00:29:35,559
your friend Kelly. She's kind of all over the place. No,

641
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,039
like you know, she loves somebody one week and she

642
00:29:39,079 --> 00:29:40,160
hates them the next week.

643
00:29:40,559 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: That's like an honor for her to love us every week.

644
00:29:43,279 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, she's a very emotional, very emotional young lady.

645
00:29:47,319 --> 00:29:47,960
I think. Yes.

646
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,559
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, the chat saying Sean Michael stops spreading rumors,

647
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:52,440
I'm not pregnant.

648
00:29:52,559 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: It's impossible. Actually I'm not pregnant. Sorry, So that was weird.

649
00:29:57,039 --> 00:29:59,720
That was really weird, like a pregnant woman.

650
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 4: Well, I think you're glowing because you're so excited about

651
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,559
another rivety week of NFL.

652
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 1: Have a ring light in front of me.

653
00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 4: Well, don't you think I'll tell you what. I'm glowing

654
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:14,200
a little bit because the the first the charity invitational

655
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,279
part of the College Football Playoff is over. Like the

656
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,079
charity charity invite stuff is over. Now we can actually

657
00:30:21,079 --> 00:30:22,359
play the real games.

658
00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: And that's early stand out.

659
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,319
Speaker 4: That's not really I mean, they there was a little

660
00:30:28,319 --> 00:30:30,799
bit of money on Alabama Alabama plays Indiana and the

661
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,200
Rose Bowl, a little bit of money on that. But

662
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,039
I think it's it's just good to get through that

663
00:30:37,079 --> 00:30:40,799
first week. It was just ridiculous nonsense. It was an

664
00:30:40,839 --> 00:30:43,079
embarrassment in that right.

665
00:30:43,039 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: Like the Miami game really should have been the night

666
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:45,400
game last night.

667
00:30:46,119 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, it's just it's just bad when two of

668
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,400
the games are pretty much over in the first quarter. Yeah,

669
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,000
you know, it's like like you just watch a few

670
00:30:53,079 --> 00:30:55,240
drives and you're like, oh my god, this isn't even

671
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,319
so Yeah, I'm glad that that. I mean, I'm glad

672
00:30:58,319 --> 00:31:01,160
we we did our part where we didn't hurt anybody's

673
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,079
feelings and we got the teams in. No one's feelings

674
00:31:05,119 --> 00:31:06,839
were hurt, and now we can actually move on to

675
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,319
the real games. That makes me happy. That makes me glow.

676
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: And I know that here on Wager Talk they'll have

677
00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:15,559
all that talk. I'm bent on it. John. Any totals

678
00:31:15,599 --> 00:31:19,000
that stood out that you guys need, let me see, because.

679
00:31:18,759 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 4: Your friend Kelly told me that usually when I give

680
00:31:21,039 --> 00:31:23,039
you the totals, they do better than the sides.

681
00:31:23,519 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what Kelly said.

682
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 4: It looks like we'll need the under in your game tonight,

683
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,039
your game Baltimore hosting New England. That line's actually gone

684
00:31:32,119 --> 00:31:33,480
up to three and a half that's one that I

685
00:31:33,839 --> 00:31:37,160
should have run through as a sharper play. Is Baltimore

686
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,400
Baltimore going from two and a half to three and

687
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,599
a half. That's a very significant line moment, that is so,

688
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,400
I'd say Baltimore for sure, and we will need the

689
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,440
under in that game. Although that's pretty common. I think

690
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,759
the people out there should understand that very normal for

691
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:53,799
us to need the under in a primetime game. I

692
00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:56,279
don't know how waaningful that is. Well, while the under

693
00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:59,799
in the Pittsburgh game as well, Pittsburgh Detroit afternoon game.

694
00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:03,759
Detroit seemingly when they're at home, their offense races up

695
00:32:03,799 --> 00:32:06,519
and down the field. Yeah, see what they look like today,

696
00:32:06,559 --> 00:32:10,279
we'll need under fifty two. Fifty two is a big

697
00:32:10,359 --> 00:32:12,759
number for a Steeler baking number is not. I mean,

698
00:32:12,759 --> 00:32:14,599
that's a lot of points for the Steelers, but they're

699
00:32:14,599 --> 00:32:19,799
not exactly an explosive offense. And no TJ. Watt good point, Yeah, yeah,

700
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,279
good point. So yeah, I think there's an expectation there

701
00:32:22,279 --> 00:32:23,960
that the Lions will be able to run up and

702
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,480
down the field. But can Pittsburgh score back? I don't know.

703
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,799
Speaker 1: Well, I can't. This whole the chat is killing me today.

704
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:33,400
I really need to shut it off because I don't

705
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:34,319
like these rumors.

706
00:32:34,759 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: How what what were they saying about you now? Is

707
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:37,720
it something about an island?

708
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,359
Speaker 2: No, not yet actually, but instead of Epstein's pregnant, Ravens

709
00:32:41,359 --> 00:32:44,319
will finally beat Tomlin in the regular season when it matters.

710
00:32:45,279 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 4: Why are these guys asking if you're pregnant? What's the

711
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:48,319
matter with your fans?

712
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: I don't know. Usually men don't want you to be pregnant,

713
00:32:51,359 --> 00:32:54,599
like then you're still available, which I'm not available to

714
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,799
any of you in the chat. Sorry, because you're telling

715
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,960
me I'm pregnant and it's fake news. Fake news. How

716
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,400
coming in on Chargers Cowboys.

717
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,079
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's very actually a pretty interesting game.

718
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,839
And early on in the week there was some real

719
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,240
sharp money on Dallas that moved us up to about

720
00:33:11,279 --> 00:33:14,119
two and a half money line plus one twenty. And

721
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,480
then we saw late in the week, I'm talking like

722
00:33:16,599 --> 00:33:21,000
yesterday Saturday, some really sharp accounts taking the Chargers taking

723
00:33:21,039 --> 00:33:23,359
plus one twenty on the money line, taking two and

724
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,519
a half. We need Dallas right now, so we took

725
00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:28,680
some bigger bets on the Chargers yesterday. So we'll be

726
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,000
we'll be written for the Cowboys. That game will be

727
00:33:31,079 --> 00:33:34,079
on sound here at the Westgates Super Book in the morning.

728
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,279
Good one, pretty good one. I kind of like watching

729
00:33:37,279 --> 00:33:40,279
the Chargers play because I love Jim Harbaugh. I do

730
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,160
love I love coach Jim Harbaugh. I think he's funny.

731
00:33:43,559 --> 00:33:45,240
I think the whole bit with him is funny. I

732
00:33:45,599 --> 00:33:46,720
like it all. I enjoy all of them.

733
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,759
Speaker 2: The Ravens actually this week released a video of their

734
00:33:49,799 --> 00:33:53,599
head coach John Harbaugh. Apparently he's the first person at

735
00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:55,880
the gym five am every morning.

736
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,359
Speaker 4: And how old are the harba is now? Man, they

737
00:33:58,400 --> 00:33:59,720
gotta be like mid sixty.

738
00:34:00,839 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: Oh maybe I just so older than that because because

739
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,279
my mom has a crush sixty three for John. Okay,

740
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:08,559
Jim sixty one.

741
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 4: That's a little younger than I thought, because you're I mean,

742
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:11,960
you're a little too young for this.

743
00:34:12,079 --> 00:34:14,559
Speaker 1: But I remember the crush on John no offense to

744
00:34:14,599 --> 00:34:15,039
my dad.

745
00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:18,639
Speaker 4: I remember Jim Harbaugh as the Bears quarterback when I

746
00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:22,159
was a kid going to the sideline and Mike Ditka

747
00:34:22,519 --> 00:34:26,280
just eviscerating him on the sideline. And then I can

748
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,360
remember him being the Colts quarterback. He got them to

749
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,719
an AFC Championship game. They lost to Pittsburgh in the

750
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,159
NFC Championship Game. I mean this is like thirty some

751
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:35,960
years ago.

752
00:34:36,519 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: Wow, yeah, no, that's true. But thirty something years ago

753
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,800
they were my age. So we are people too in

754
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:43,400
our thirties.

755
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:49,519
Speaker 2: John Murray, Oh okay, yeah, thirty are also people established

756
00:34:49,559 --> 00:34:50,119
all the time.

757
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,079
Speaker 1: John Murray overhead the Westgates Superbook, Rep Ball Officionado, thank

758
00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:57,599
you for coming on the show today. Hope love the

759
00:34:57,679 --> 00:34:59,800
NFL get murdered by reps again.

760
00:35:00,159 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 4: I can't wait till we'll talk to you about week

761
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,119
seventeen next week. Ariel.

762
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, at least we're just one week closer to

763
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,199
baseball one weekless.

764
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,760
Speaker 1: Correct, Thanks John coming on now last, certainly not least.

765
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,599
Speaker 2: He's been on an absolute tear over at Wager talks

766
00:35:14,599 --> 00:35:16,639
about on it. That's why we've had him on with

767
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,679
Yanni the Greek week giving Helen to day off.

768
00:35:19,119 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: It is Marco D'Angelo. Marco in Vegas is where you

769
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,920
could find him. Marco happy Sunday.

770
00:35:26,159 --> 00:35:27,679
Speaker 4: Hey, Ariel, how you doing today?

771
00:35:28,159 --> 00:35:28,679
Speaker 1: I'm good?

772
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: And now it's kind of crazy because I was hoping

773
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,920
your Steelers would lose no offense. John Murray is saying

774
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,440
that they really need Pittsburgh today? How confident are you

775
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:37,760
in those Steelers?

776
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 5: Uh? Well, I heard the segment with John and what

777
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,360
John was talking about where the Steelers really don't need

778
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,559
this game. Actually, I planned that seed in his head

779
00:35:46,599 --> 00:35:49,039
on Friday. And what I meant when I said that

780
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:54,119
was when Pittsburgh won on Monday Night against Miami. That

781
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,400
win on Monday Night guaranteed no matter what Pittsburgh does

782
00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:03,519
this week or next week, the final game still will

783
00:36:03,519 --> 00:36:07,599
be for the division. Now, obviously, if Pittsburgh wins a

784
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,599
game before the final game against Baltimore and Baltimore you know,

785
00:36:11,679 --> 00:36:14,320
stubs their toe along the way, then they have the

786
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,519
two game cushion and that's gonna ruin that final game

787
00:36:17,639 --> 00:36:20,559
on that Sunday. I think this is a horrible spot

788
00:36:20,599 --> 00:36:23,920
for the Steelers today, Ariel, because they're playing off the

789
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,519
short week, and let's be honest, it was a.

790
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: Touch stretch too, and they had if he's Buffalo Baltimore

791
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:31,320
then the short week.

792
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:32,039
Speaker 1: It's rough.

793
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:36,199
Speaker 5: Absolutely and that game last week. Throw the game out

794
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,920
against Miami. Okay, that was a warm weather team that

795
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:43,000
wanted no part of playing in the frigid cold Tua.

796
00:36:43,159 --> 00:36:45,880
I don't know what he was doing, and he played

797
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,000
so bad that it finally got him benched. You know,

798
00:36:49,199 --> 00:36:52,039
they sat him down for the rest of the season now,

799
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:56,079
and for Pittsburgh to go into Detroit, that defense is

800
00:36:56,119 --> 00:37:00,000
gonna get exposed. And that's why John seen everybody bet

801
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,159
the over, and you brought up the good point. You know, well,

802
00:37:03,199 --> 00:37:06,159
you need two teams to hit an over. Okay, well

803
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,440
no you don't not if you play a team total

804
00:37:09,559 --> 00:37:14,000
I'm taking I'm taking Detroit team total over twenty eight

805
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:19,519
and a half because, yeah, this is a Pittsburgh spot. J.

806
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,440
Javid Watson T J. Watts out, there's another injury on

807
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,320
the defense. This is the one for Pittsburgh. If there

808
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,679
is a throwaway game on the short week, you're gonna

809
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:35,400
do it against Detroit. You're playing them indoors, perfect weather conditions,

810
00:37:35,599 --> 00:37:38,800
that offense for Detroit, and you know Dan Campbell never

811
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,400
takes his foot off the gas. That's not his m

812
00:37:41,639 --> 00:37:45,719
so he'll keep pushing up the field. Pittsburgh is gonna

813
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,400
look for the final two games they get to win

814
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,639
against Cleveland, and if Baltimore loses one of the two

815
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,199
games before then, then it's over. But if they're gonna

816
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,800
need a game. They're gonna go all out next week

817
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,400
against Cleveland before the Baltimore game. This is the throwaway

818
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,960
game for Pittsburgh, and that's why John said what he

819
00:38:04,519 --> 00:38:06,599
said there. That was me that planted a dead season.

820
00:38:06,679 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 2: I guess my thought is as someone like a Mike Tomlin,

821
00:38:10,519 --> 00:38:13,119
who is a great head coach. Despite what Steelers fans

822
00:38:13,119 --> 00:38:15,000
are over, I get it. Ravens fans are over John

823
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,559
Harball too, because when it's so mediocre for so long,

824
00:38:17,679 --> 00:38:21,559
it's time for a change. However, when the Steelers know

825
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:26,559
potentially that they could potentially rest Week eighteen and go

826
00:38:26,599 --> 00:38:29,199
into the playoffs a little more rested if there's a

827
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:33,239
chance the Ravens lose tonight, then the Steelers are in

828
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,119
better position and going into the playoffs as opposed to

829
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,239
mailing this in which they're not going to know the

830
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,559
results of the Ravens game by the time their game

831
00:38:40,639 --> 00:38:40,960
is over.

832
00:38:42,599 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 5: Absolutely correct. So the situation, you know, meaning they could

833
00:38:48,079 --> 00:38:52,159
go all out today and Baltimore wins tonight and it

834
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:53,199
still you know.

835
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter.

836
00:38:54,039 --> 00:38:54,519
Speaker 1: I get it.

837
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 3: I totally.

838
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 5: Where I think where I think it's at is they're

839
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,519
going to go all out against you know, and who

840
00:39:00,559 --> 00:39:02,719
do you have a better chance of beating pittsil does

841
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,960
not match up well the defense. Go back two weeks ago,

842
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,639
you should have won the Baltimore game. We talked about

843
00:39:08,679 --> 00:39:12,719
that last week. Baltimore had over four hundred yards of offense,

844
00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:16,760
and that was back to back weeks that Buffalo and

845
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,880
Baltimore rushed for over two hundred yards against the Steeler defense.

846
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,760
That's not going to change this week. And now you've

847
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,199
got to worry about not only a good running game

848
00:39:27,079 --> 00:39:29,559
with the Lions with Montgomery and Gibbs, you got to

849
00:39:29,599 --> 00:39:33,920
worry about a passing attack as well. It's a bad matchup.

850
00:39:34,039 --> 00:39:37,679
Short week. I think you look to the final two

851
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:41,079
games for the Steelers for them to get the job done.

852
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,719
That's where you go all out, not on the short

853
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,039
week going into Detroit.

854
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,079
Speaker 2: The Ravens played a night of course to get the

855
00:39:48,079 --> 00:39:50,800
New England Patriots. We've seen this line moving slightly in

856
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:52,519
the Ravens favor throughout the week.

857
00:39:53,119 --> 00:39:55,039
Speaker 1: I heard on bet on It. Most of you guys

858
00:39:55,119 --> 00:39:57,400
seem to be liking my Ravens. It is just so

859
00:39:57,519 --> 00:39:59,599
hard for me to not only give them my money

860
00:39:59,599 --> 00:40:02,480
for a ticket. It's my I don't mean betting ticket.

861
00:40:02,519 --> 00:40:05,440
I mean a seat. I don't even want to pay

862
00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:08,480
to watch them play. I don't even want to put

863
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,639
my money on them. Convinced me otherwise.

864
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,679
Speaker 5: I like Baltimore tonight. I think this is a bad

865
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:17,920
spot for New England if you just look at the

866
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:23,119
numbers for the season. Obviously, New England has played tremendous

867
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,280
but this is a young ball club and we talk

868
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:31,840
about so often lose the same game twice. I want

869
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,960
to see New England show me that they can pick

870
00:40:35,039 --> 00:40:38,840
themselves up off the mat after blowing a twenty one

871
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:43,119
to nothing lead that would have clinched the division, probably

872
00:40:43,119 --> 00:40:46,599
gave them, you know, a home field advantage throughout the

873
00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:50,760
playoffs in the AFC, and they lose that game after

874
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,239
blowing that lead. They got to show me that they

875
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:54,920
can go on the road and come back.

876
00:40:55,159 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 4: Now.

877
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 5: I know it's been a you know, an off year

878
00:40:57,519 --> 00:41:00,519
for Lamar Jackson, but we've seen glimpses of it. We

879
00:41:00,559 --> 00:41:03,440
saw some of it in the Pittsburgh game. I started

880
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,800
to run the football a little more, made some passes

881
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:11,519
last week, probably the most complete game by Baltimore last

882
00:41:11,599 --> 00:41:15,320
week against Cincinnati. Granted that was against the Cincinnati defense,

883
00:41:15,599 --> 00:41:19,400
but I loved Baltimore last week. I like them here

884
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,360
again New England if you just look at the numbers,

885
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:26,280
though they've been obviously the more consistent team all year.

886
00:41:26,559 --> 00:41:29,880
Drake May's had a great year. I mean, going into

887
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,400
last week's game, there was talk of Drake May for

888
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,400
MVP and rightfully show for what he's done. For a

889
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,840
second year quarterback, to do what he's done with this team,

890
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,960
it's impressive. But now that you lost and you had

891
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,280
your statement game, sometimes that creeps in the back of

892
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:48,920
your mind.

893
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 2: You were cracking me up because you said, I was

894
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,840
sitting there eating no wing's watching this game. I had

895
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,800
to dust my fingers off because I thought the Patriots

896
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,039
were going to win their statement game against the Bills,

897
00:42:01,159 --> 00:42:03,880
and then they ended up losing a twenty one point lead.

898
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: How when you thought that way in that moment, even when.

899
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,199
Speaker 2: The Patriots didn't necessarily lose yet just blowing the lead,

900
00:42:13,639 --> 00:42:15,639
you were ready to fade them the next week, no

901
00:42:15,679 --> 00:42:16,480
matter who they played.

902
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, it was a situation that you know, I started out,

903
00:42:20,159 --> 00:42:22,599
I was, you know, if they win the game, I'm

904
00:42:22,599 --> 00:42:25,639
going against them even bigger. Okay, but when they lost

905
00:42:25,639 --> 00:42:27,400
the game, I'm saying, oh, now I can't do it.

906
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,320
Then I started thinking, no, this is the you know,

907
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,360
the poster child for lose the same game twice. So

908
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,400
I said, yeah, I'll still go against them. And then

909
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,480
when it sets up that it's a Sunday night game

910
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,719
against Baltimore and the season's on the line for Baltimore

911
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,119
because you know, Baltimore can't afford to lose. Now, granted,

912
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:50,320
if Pittsburgh loses earlier in the afternoon, it creates a

913
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:55,760
situation for Baltimore where they can still afford to lose

914
00:42:55,880 --> 00:43:00,559
because it's still a one game difference. But league they

915
00:43:00,599 --> 00:43:02,559
want to get that get you know, get that game

916
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,760
up if they can get it. So I think Baltimore,

917
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,920
you're gonna have all, you know, all hands on deck.

918
00:43:08,039 --> 00:43:11,960
It's a Sunday night game. Hopefully that crowd is rocking

919
00:43:12,119 --> 00:43:15,199
and rolling there for Sunday night and they get the

920
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,519
job done. But we need Lamar Jackson to have a

921
00:43:18,559 --> 00:43:21,000
clean game. We can't have one of those you know,

922
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,360
three four turnover type games that we've seen a couple

923
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,159
of times this year that there has just been you know,

924
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,679
I know, frustrating to you and to the rest of

925
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:30,760
the Raven fans.

926
00:43:31,199 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: Marc.

927
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,800
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about games that matter today because

928
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,440
there are a bunch of games with playoff implications.

929
00:43:36,559 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 1: Then there are the games that don't matter at all

930
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,800
to either team. Have you seen anything in those games

931
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,719
that is willing to be like that's actionable?

932
00:43:45,559 --> 00:43:46,039
Speaker 4: Yeah.

933
00:43:46,159 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 5: What I generally do, Ariel, when you've got these if

934
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,559
you've got two teams that they're out of it, it

935
00:43:52,639 --> 00:43:57,239
means nothing. I generally don't get excited too often about

936
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:01,320
playing those games unless there's uh something else with the situation,

937
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,920
and I'll bring one of them up here later. But

938
00:44:04,079 --> 00:44:06,280
what I do like to look at in these games

939
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:10,480
is if we don't have weather conditions, generally speaking, the

940
00:44:10,559 --> 00:44:12,599
last couple weeks of the season, when you have two

941
00:44:12,639 --> 00:44:15,840
teams that it doesn't matter where you're going to see.

942
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,599
The lack of effort comes on the defensive side of

943
00:44:18,639 --> 00:44:21,119
the football, because it takes more effort to play defense

944
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,840
than it does to play offense. I'll look to take

945
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,559
an over one of those examples last week, and it

946
00:44:26,599 --> 00:44:30,199
was a client play was I gave the Washington Giant

947
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,320
game over the total. Everybody was betting that game under

948
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,599
the total, and I went over the total. Because these

949
00:44:35,599 --> 00:44:38,079
were two teams had nothing to play for and they

950
00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:40,719
went up and down the field. So that's where I'll

951
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,199
look at. But don't just because the game's on the

952
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:45,880
schedule doesn't mean you got to play every game on

953
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,400
the schedule. And I always tell people all the time,

954
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,920
you know what, if we take you off of a loser,

955
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:55,039
I did you a better service than giving you a winner,

956
00:44:55,119 --> 00:44:57,159
Because if I give you a winner, that's one unit.

957
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,760
If I save you a loser, it's one point one unit,

958
00:45:01,079 --> 00:45:04,159
you know, in your pocket differential. And that's what people

959
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,480
you know, fell to. You know, remember, like today, you

960
00:45:07,519 --> 00:45:10,000
want to talk about situational plays, but I can't play

961
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,559
this team because they've been in so many situations this

962
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,960
year where they look live. But I can't play them.

963
00:45:17,039 --> 00:45:20,920
That's the Cleveland Browns. Buffalo is in a major letdown

964
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,519
spot after the New England game last week. They got

965
00:45:24,519 --> 00:45:26,400
to figure in their minds they just got to go

966
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,559
into Cleveland, show up and win, you know, and they're

967
00:45:29,559 --> 00:45:32,760
gonna win the game, and you're laying over ten points.

968
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:34,559
This line has gone to ten and a half now.

969
00:45:35,079 --> 00:45:39,079
But Buffalo needs to win. We know that every team

970
00:45:39,199 --> 00:45:42,960
that needs to win. Vegas knows they need to win.

971
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,599
They know that, the public knows they need to win.

972
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:50,239
You're paying a premium for them, so you're getting value

973
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:54,000
with the Cleveland side. But I just can't bet the Browns.

974
00:45:54,199 --> 00:45:56,079
So what do I do? I don't play the game.

975
00:45:56,199 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 4: I move on.

976
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 5: I just leave that game alone.

977
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: I love your sandwich boughts this entire season. They've been

978
00:46:02,519 --> 00:46:07,320
absolute money. For anyone that hasn't seen Marco'sdelli bet on

979
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,400
it segments with it. I've been cashing a ton, whether

980
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,559
it's that teasing those sides, it's been really great. One

981
00:46:13,599 --> 00:46:16,400
of those this week that you brought up a team

982
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:20,280
that's very, very scary to bet on, the Arizona Cardinals.

983
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:21,840
Speaker 5: But the atlant that's the one I was going to

984
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,159
bring up later to you guys. You want to talk

985
00:46:24,199 --> 00:46:29,760
about that. That is the monster of all sandwiches. Okay, Now,

986
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,400
these are two teams that have nothing to play for, obviously,

987
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,519
so a lot of money is going to come in

988
00:46:34,559 --> 00:46:36,800
on the over on this game, and I can't disagree

989
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,800
with that. But when you talk about a sandwich spot,

990
00:46:40,199 --> 00:46:43,519
you look at this Atlanta team. They're out of the playoffs.

991
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,440
Teams like that, the times they're going to show up

992
00:46:47,559 --> 00:46:50,159
is going to be if they're playing a division game

993
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,960
and they can play spoiler, or if it's a TV

994
00:46:54,159 --> 00:46:57,920
game and it's a primetime game, you know, a Thursday night,

995
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,519
a Sunday night, a Monday night game. Want to show

996
00:47:00,599 --> 00:47:03,960
up for that? Well, look what Atlanta did last week.

997
00:47:04,039 --> 00:47:06,440
They played on Thursday night, so not only was it

998
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,199
a primetime TV game, they played Tampa Bay where they

999
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,360
got to play the role of spoiler. They beat Tampa

1000
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:17,360
Bay and come from behind fashion. It was a crazy game.

1001
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,400
They got it the game winning field goal on the

1002
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,760
last play of the game. Now they've got to go

1003
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,519
on the road for a second week in a row.

1004
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,880
How do you get excited to go to Arizona? And

1005
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,159
then you look at what does Atlanta have on deck?

1006
00:47:32,119 --> 00:47:35,920
They get to play the Rams next week on Monday

1007
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:40,400
night football. We got a TV sandwich. Okay, Thursday night,

1008
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:44,000
Monday night, and in between you're going to Arizona. I'm sorry.

1009
00:47:44,119 --> 00:47:47,119
If Atlanta shows up today and is able to win

1010
00:47:47,159 --> 00:47:49,519
a second week in a row on a road against

1011
00:47:49,559 --> 00:47:52,039
a garbage team that they shouldn't even be excited about,

1012
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,320
kudos to them. They'll get my money.

1013
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 2: I am scared to do it, but I'm gonna definitely

1014
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,800
use it in a pick them contest and the Cardinals.

1015
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,199
I absolutely love the spot that you're mentioning about two

1016
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:06,280
teams that don't care. Marco, what are you promoting today?

1017
00:48:07,199 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 5: Well, we do have a five percent play over at

1018
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,559
wager Talk. I've got three plays loaded right now at

1019
00:48:13,599 --> 00:48:16,360
wager Talk, and it has been just an incredible seven

1020
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:19,480
week run that we've been doing. Yesterday we went three

1021
00:48:19,559 --> 00:48:24,079
and one. The one oh my, I had green Bay

1022
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:28,000
that was the one loser yesterday. You want to talk about,

1023
00:48:28,199 --> 00:48:31,559
you know, just pure torture. And I swear to god,

1024
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:34,519
I felt like I was the only person in the

1025
00:48:34,559 --> 00:48:37,760
sports book the casino I was at yesterday that had

1026
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,480
a ticket on green Bay. It was just all Chicago

1027
00:48:40,599 --> 00:48:41,000
bever face.

1028
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:46,519
Speaker 2: He betting the same team, like the same result to happen,

1029
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,400
especially a divisional game that happens twice in the same month.

1030
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: I just hate those games.

1031
00:48:52,079 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 2: I always bet the other and I don't mean size,

1032
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:55,920
I mean props. Like you know me, I only really

1033
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,920
bet props. I bet the other side of props throughout

1034
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,679
that game, and I was at actually upset. I had

1035
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,199
their green Bay quarterback Jordan Love over his rushing yards

1036
00:49:04,199 --> 00:49:05,920
and look at what Malik Willis did when he came in.

1037
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, and it was just it was sickening to

1038
00:49:10,519 --> 00:49:14,039
watch the way they blew that game. But you know,

1039
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:17,360
three and one yesterday, we've been on a run for

1040
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,599
seven weeks. We're up over eighty units for our clients

1041
00:49:20,599 --> 00:49:24,320
in the last seven weeks my five percent plays going

1042
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:28,119
back to February of twenty twenty four last year. All right,

1043
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,480
so we're almost two years now, we're forty and seventeen

1044
00:49:31,519 --> 00:49:33,440
when we release a five percent play. We got one

1045
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,599
of those today. You can get it by itself for

1046
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:39,039
thirty five dollars, but that's silly. For four more dollars,

1047
00:49:39,079 --> 00:49:41,760
you can get a one day all access pass and

1048
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:43,760
get all of the plays that we have today. So

1049
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,400
head over to wager talk dot com right now to

1050
00:49:46,519 --> 00:49:50,440
get that play, and let's keep cashing tickets.

1051
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:51,280
Speaker 1: Keep it going.

1052
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 2: And Marco, I'm going to be asking you to come

1053
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,760
on the Propertean Pod next week just so you know,

1054
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,079
so get ready for my message. I'm asking you to

1055
00:49:57,079 --> 00:49:57,639
come on the show.

1056
00:49:57,679 --> 00:50:00,800
Speaker 1: You're on an absolute there, Marco. Thanks as always, we'll

1057
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:01,679
see you next week.

1058
00:50:02,119 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 4: Okay, take care of Dariel.

1059
00:50:04,599 --> 00:50:06,519
Speaker 2: Make sure to get it's five percent play and follow

1060
00:50:06,559 --> 00:50:10,119
him over at Marco in Vegas. We've got NFL player

1061
00:50:10,159 --> 00:50:12,599
props and contract incentives to get to.

1062
00:50:13,079 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 1: I know John Murray said that they look at it

1063
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:16,880
a lot more in week eighteen. I am the same

1064
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:17,960
I typically do.

1065
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,639
Speaker 2: However, for the teams that have nothing to play for today,

1066
00:50:22,039 --> 00:50:25,239
I really enjoyed some of these. You can catch all

1067
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,719
of my contract incentives over at theprop Queen dot com

1068
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,800
at my newsletter, so go check that out. I'll give

1069
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:36,159
you guys a few starting with my favorite one of

1070
00:50:36,199 --> 00:50:39,000
the day, which I mentioned for free to all of

1071
00:50:39,039 --> 00:50:43,719
my subscribers, which was Rico Doudele over his receiving yards.

1072
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,199
So everybody in the headlines today is talking about how

1073
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,280
rico'dowdell can make a milli off his contract incentives, which

1074
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:55,599
is true. However, he needs yards from scrimmage. So Rico

1075
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,159
Dwdell can make a million dollar bonus for ony three

1076
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,880
hundred and fifty scrimmage yards. He's currently at ONYD two

1077
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,840
hundred and thirty seven. Dowdell needs one hundred and thirteen

1078
00:51:06,079 --> 00:51:10,199
yards from scrimmage to hit his million dollar bonus. He's

1079
00:51:10,199 --> 00:51:12,760
on a one year deal worth just under three mil,

1080
00:51:13,079 --> 00:51:14,960
which isn't high for a lot of players, so he

1081
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:19,239
really could be making half his salary and bonuses if

1082
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,320
he cashes the scrimmage yards bonus.

1083
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,039
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is allowing the.

1084
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:27,280
Speaker 2: Most receiving yards per game to running backs at just

1085
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:31,199
under fifty six receiving yards a games, sixty five percent

1086
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,280
of running backs have gone over their receiving yard prop

1087
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,360
against the Bucks. When Rico Daddle's been up against teams

1088
00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:40,079
that are bottom ten AKA allowing some of the most

1089
00:51:40,079 --> 00:51:42,800
receiving yards per games to running backs, He's had fifty

1090
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,920
six against Dallas, twenty eight against Miami, twenty one against

1091
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,320
the Rams, and thirty six against San fran. This number

1092
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,880
at thirteen and a half is way too low for

1093
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,559
a player in a meaningful game, in a great matchup

1094
00:51:53,599 --> 00:51:57,880
for himself going up against Bucks that can also be

1095
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:02,239
making a million dollars, at least start cutting into that incentive.

1096
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:05,039
We're not going rushing plus receiving. We're just going over

1097
00:52:05,079 --> 00:52:08,320
thirteen and a half receiving yards for Rico Dowdele today.

1098
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,800
Some other incentives that stood out Keenan Allen his props

1099
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,079
three and a half. The book knows he needs three

1100
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,920
to go to make two hundred and fifty K. He's

1101
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,320
at sixty eight six, so he has to get seventy

1102
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,840
one catches. He is at sixty eight. He makes two

1103
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:28,239
hundred fifty K if he does it. Keenan Allen's also

1104
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,400
at six hundred and eighty receiving yards. He needs seven

1105
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,039
fifty to make another two fifty K. He's currently at

1106
00:52:33,079 --> 00:52:35,800
four touchdowns. He needs six to make another two hundred

1107
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:40,400
fifty K. Another one that makes some sense today, Oh,

1108
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:44,519
I love this one. Marquise Hollywood Brown. Hollywood Brown is

1109
00:52:44,559 --> 00:52:49,360
at five touchdowns. He needs six to make seven hundred

1110
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:53,000
and fifty thousand dollars. His any time touchdown prop today

1111
00:52:53,039 --> 00:52:56,079
is plus four twenty five. And I looked, I know

1112
00:52:56,119 --> 00:53:00,000
it's not Patrick Mahomes, It's Gardner Minshew on props dot Cam.

1113
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:04,000
It showed me that when Marquise Hollywood Brown has been

1114
00:53:04,039 --> 00:53:08,760
with Gardner Minshew both times Hollywood has scored a touchdown

1115
00:53:09,119 --> 00:53:11,280
plus four twenty five. I put one hundred bucks on

1116
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:11,760
it today.

1117
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:13,039
Speaker 1: I loved it.

1118
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 2: So those are just a few of the contract incentive

1119
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:20,400
player props that stood out to me today. I mentioned it,

1120
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:26,320
uh Fixer time, I said ricodoubdel over receiving yards today,

1121
00:53:26,679 --> 00:53:28,119
he's gonna start.

1122
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,800
Speaker 1: Dipping into making getting closer to the million. He needs

1123
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:32,960
to go over a hundred he needs one hundred and

1124
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:37,800
thirteen yards scrimmage yards. He's uh so, I would say

1125
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:40,400
against the Bucks who struggle against pass catching backs, go

1126
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:44,039
over receiving yards today. Again, it's scrimmage yards. It is not.

1127
00:53:45,639 --> 00:53:48,199
Speaker 2: Just strushing yards, so make sure to check those out

1128
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,760
again the prop Queen dot Com. I have my full

1129
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,559
list of all of the contract incentive props that stood out,

1130
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,519
all of the props for today that stood out. Because

1131
00:53:56,559 --> 00:53:59,800
not everything is about just the contract incentives. There are

1132
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:02,360
actually still good matchups out there where you can bet

1133
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:04,679
those props. I gave out the one o'clock games already.

1134
00:54:04,679 --> 00:54:07,280
I'm gonna go do the four o'clock and night games

1135
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,800
right now, but those were some for the early slate.

1136
00:54:09,599 --> 00:54:12,320
Speaker 1: Of games that you could check out for contract incentives.

1137
00:54:12,599 --> 00:54:14,519
Speaker 2: I hope you all have a great holiday. If I

1138
00:54:14,519 --> 00:54:17,199
don't see you, guys, I hope that everyone has a

1139
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:18,320
profitable Sunday.

1140
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:19,559
Speaker 1: Thank you, y Anny.

1141
00:54:19,639 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 2: The Greek Greek underscore gambler Vegas Murray John Murray from

1142
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:24,840
the Westgate, for giving us the needs of the day

1143
00:54:25,199 --> 00:54:30,119
and the absolute on fire Marco D'Angelo, Marco and Vegas

1144
00:54:30,119 --> 00:54:32,079
is where you can find him. On X for giving

1145
00:54:32,119 --> 00:54:35,800
us some plays of the day. See you guys Thursday,

1146
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:38,719
actually for Christmas Day. President and I are going to

1147
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,199
be doing some wager talk stuff while you know, the

1148
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,000
Jews are going to be working while everyone celebrates Christmas.

1149
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:47,320
If you need any Christmas action, we'll get you covered

1150
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:49,840
on Thursday, and we will be back here next Sunday,

1151
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:51,199
of course, for Week seventeen.

1152
00:54:51,519 --> 00:54:52,639
Speaker 1: Good luck today everyone,