1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:00,160
Speaker 1: You.

2
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:04,759
Speaker 2: Welcome to Wadger Talk today, the gold standard of sports

3
00:00:04,799 --> 00:00:07,320
Betty shows where we talked the talk and walk the walk.

4
00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:11,320
It is five dollars Tuesday. We got Marquee NBA matchups,

5
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,480
college hoops. We got a lot going going down and Dan,

6
00:00:15,599 --> 00:00:19,760
you're gonna get us started with a lacrosse WTF LFG.

7
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,879
We have two plays for clients. You're gonna go over

8
00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,679
one of them, and you pretty you love these plays.

9
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, So like I said to you, I always suggest,

10
00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:31,679
I mean I put him in as three unit plays

11
00:00:31,719 --> 00:00:33,560
for me. So we have one that's going at one

12
00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,920
o'clock and get over at Andy's page WT dot Buzz

13
00:00:36,039 --> 00:00:38,119
slash Al. We got this other one that's going at

14
00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,960
four Andy and WTF or LFG. We are laying the

15
00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,159
wood with Johns Hopkins Blue Jays as they're taking on

16
00:00:46,359 --> 00:00:50,960
the townsand Tigers, little in state rivalry Andy, and really

17
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,359
you hear at the beginning of seasons. Ralph Michaels has

18
00:00:54,359 --> 00:00:57,479
come on before and talked about college football teams, teams

19
00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,840
with a GUB a game under belt and that helps

20
00:01:01,119 --> 00:01:04,439
or hurt some teams. Well, in this season, it's seeming

21
00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:06,680
like the teams who have gotten off to action early

22
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,280
have really benefited and Johns Hopkins has a game under

23
00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:14,359
belt seventeen to two win over Robert Morris Towson season

24
00:01:14,359 --> 00:01:16,200
opener that was going to be a nice test for

25
00:01:16,239 --> 00:01:20,319
them against UNC canceled Andy because they are deciding to

26
00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,280
play lacrosse when it is twenty degrees outside and that

27
00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,159
doesn't really work. So a lot of these games have

28
00:01:25,239 --> 00:01:28,480
been canceled. Reason for me, Andy lay in this number.

29
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,719
I'm confident doing it. Johns Hopkins in this rivalry they

30
00:01:31,719 --> 00:01:35,120
play every single year since they're in state together. Towson

31
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,079
has lost four straight against Johns Hopkins. Last year was

32
00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,760
a close game, but outside of that, there haven't been

33
00:01:40,799 --> 00:01:43,599
many close games. And it seems to me that early

34
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,719
on in this season, Johns Hopkins is a little bit

35
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,079
different of a team Towson. Also, Andy. Last thing I'll say,

36
00:01:49,319 --> 00:01:52,760
they haven't covered this number at Homewood Field, where Johns

37
00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:56,519
Hopkins plays since two thousand and six. They've had nine

38
00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,599
tries to lose by less than four goals. They're one in.

39
00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,599
Speaker 3: Eight against the spread sitting at this number, lay the three.

40
00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:04,680
Speaker 1: And a half. It goes at four o'clock today. Johns

41
00:02:04,719 --> 00:02:08,039
Hoppins lacrosse were following or fading Andy.

42
00:02:08,319 --> 00:02:11,439
Speaker 2: Well, clearly we're following. I mean the seventeen X beat

43
00:02:11,479 --> 00:02:15,639
down was impressive last week. And yeah, I believe in

44
00:02:16,039 --> 00:02:20,960
Games Underbelt that that was very very Yeah. Yeah, that

45
00:02:21,039 --> 00:02:23,000
was really good from John Hopkins. So this should be

46
00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,280
available on most of your sportsbooks. Here line is holding

47
00:02:26,319 --> 00:02:28,000
strong at minus three and a half. You got plenty

48
00:02:28,039 --> 00:02:30,479
of time to put this one. That one in that

49
00:02:30,599 --> 00:02:34,319
is definitely an LFG. All right, we got a lot

50
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,479
to get to. Let's bring in the Steve Merrill. While

51
00:02:36,479 --> 00:02:38,240
we're doing that, guys, please hit the like button. It

52
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,840
really helps us out. Steve Happy Tuesday.

53
00:02:42,759 --> 00:02:45,960
Speaker 4: How are you not fading Dan on lacrosse?

54
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:46,479
Speaker 1: That's for sure.

55
00:02:46,479 --> 00:02:48,080
Speaker 4: I was thinking about that is because Andy and I

56
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:49,800
did that segment Friday. I'm like, and how in the

57
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,560
world would I even make a counter argument to fade

58
00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,159
Dan and lacrosse? And I will say the Game Underbelt,

59
00:02:55,199 --> 00:02:57,400
I think the only you know, advantage or disadvantage. I

60
00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,520
don't think it's ever a disadvantage, even in football. I

61
00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,599
think that well, the disadvantage is a couple of things,

62
00:03:02,599 --> 00:03:04,759
you know, something they've flated the lines in recent years.

63
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,080
I don't know if they do that on lacrosse, but

64
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,840
I guess the disadvantage would be they've had a full

65
00:03:08,879 --> 00:03:11,680
month to prepare for that opponent, where the team that

66
00:03:11,759 --> 00:03:13,199
had to play a game only has like a week

67
00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:14,960
to prepare for him. So maybe that would be the

68
00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,520
disadvantage to having a game on your about not having one,

69
00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,000
But I made a lot of sense.

70
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Steve too, you know in this again, is

71
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,120
something that you can use across other sports. And because

72
00:03:26,159 --> 00:03:28,719
of this whole like weather angle that's kind of popping up,

73
00:03:28,719 --> 00:03:30,800
you're seeing it kind of happened in college basketball the

74
00:03:30,879 --> 00:03:33,719
last few weeks where teams weren't able to travel were

75
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:38,319
able to travel. Initially, there was a game scheduled for tousand,

76
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,000
which was why I wanted to come back in because

77
00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:41,719
it was a game that they got canceled, and it

78
00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,800
was the day of that the game ended up getting canceled,

79
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,759
so it wasn't like all eyes ahead.

80
00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,639
Speaker 3: So I like the I like the point there for sure.

81
00:03:49,319 --> 00:03:51,080
Speaker 1: And it is something again, guys, that you can use

82
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,319
as a handicaping tool, and that's something that we like

83
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:53,759
to do here.

84
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 3: Steve does it in his solo gamers as well.

85
00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,879
Speaker 1: Is sure we're going to give you picks here, folks,

86
00:03:57,879 --> 00:03:59,680
We're gonna get because that's what we know you want.

87
00:03:59,719 --> 00:04:01,560
But all so we can arm you with some tools

88
00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,159
that you can use across different sports or to just

89
00:04:04,199 --> 00:04:07,759
become smarter betters. What do we always say on the video, Steve, learn,

90
00:04:07,879 --> 00:04:10,800
earn win together, And that's what Wader talks about.

91
00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,879
Speaker 4: Maybe, And that's why they should also comment below and

92
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:14,800
let us know if they agree or disagree with your

93
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:16,439
lacrosse play. I want to know who's on the other

94
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,720
side of it. That's more important. You can, you can

95
00:04:18,759 --> 00:04:21,000
agree or disagree, but who's actually putting money where their

96
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,120
mouth is and playing the other side of Dan Alexander's

97
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:24,879
lacrosse plays?

98
00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:26,040
Speaker 1: Not me? Not me?

99
00:04:26,879 --> 00:04:30,560
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, yeah, we got some messages. It's just two

100
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,360
and a half on Draft Kings. Why you shop around

101
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,000
with love even more love this team that won by

102
00:04:36,079 --> 00:04:41,879
fifteen last week. All right, Steve, let's go to the

103
00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:44,639
let's let's do NBA here, We're going to do this

104
00:04:44,759 --> 00:04:49,639
Mavericks and Sun's team. I you know, we're gonna do

105
00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,160
a segment a little bit later on NBA teams tanking

106
00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,000
and how can we take advantage of that? And you know,

107
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,920
I'm looking at this Dallas team and I just think

108
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,879
they're a lot better than this record ten and thirty three.

109
00:05:00,959 --> 00:05:04,160
You watch him, I mean, Cooper Flagg is just my god,

110
00:05:03,519 --> 00:05:06,480
the sky is the ceiling for this guy. But they've

111
00:05:06,519 --> 00:05:08,319
lost some games in the row in Phoenix, you know

112
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,519
they're right in this play in spot here they're thirty

113
00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,160
one and twenty two, easily one of the top three

114
00:05:15,759 --> 00:05:19,399
pleasant surprises from a perspective here. So these two teams

115
00:05:19,399 --> 00:05:22,000
are facing off, I'm looking at starting lineups. It looks

116
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,800
like we're gonna get pretty much the majority of the guys.

117
00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,959
Grayson Allen's out, Klay Thompson's questionable, but they got the

118
00:05:29,959 --> 00:05:32,360
Phoenix suns here at minus eight and half over under

119
00:05:32,399 --> 00:05:34,040
two twenty eight and a half. Do you agree with

120
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,480
the line makers it says Phoenix should win this comfortably.

121
00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,079
Speaker 4: Well, we've definitely seen some money move on this as well.

122
00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,000
Phoenix opened seven and a half, it's now up to

123
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,040
eight and a half. Total has really been hit two

124
00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,040
twenty six and a half up to two twenty nine.

125
00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,600
So we've seen some sharp money on the over in

126
00:05:47,639 --> 00:05:48,920
this game, and some of it might have to do

127
00:05:48,959 --> 00:05:50,720
with lineups. Who's going to be in Grayson Allen is

128
00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,879
listed as out. I saw him questionable on the Odds

129
00:05:52,959 --> 00:05:55,800
Logic screen, the Don Best screen, but he's listed as

130
00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,680
out with the new Eastern NBA reports, so he's not

131
00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:02,040
expected to play. Of course, Kyrie has been out lively.

132
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,759
He's out. As you said, Klay Thompson's questionable. He's probably

133
00:06:05,759 --> 00:06:08,639
the only guy in nimrod g league. This is a

134
00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,480
Dallas team that's really been banged up this year.

135
00:06:10,519 --> 00:06:11,000
Speaker 1: They made the.

136
00:06:10,959 --> 00:06:13,959
Speaker 4: Trades last week as well. And yes they're on a

137
00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,319
downward spiral. And we always talk about not catching that

138
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,879
falling knife. Well, the Mavericks are definitely a falling knife

139
00:06:18,959 --> 00:06:21,120
right now. Not only they oh and seven straight up,

140
00:06:21,639 --> 00:06:23,560
they're just two and five against the spread, and they're

141
00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,839
oh and three against the spreading those last three losses.

142
00:06:25,879 --> 00:06:27,839
It's not like they're starting to turn the corner. With

143
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,199
that said, though their last four losses came against Houston,

144
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,519
Boston and the Spurs twice, they also played Minnesota and

145
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,959
the Lakers and oh a feisty little team called the

146
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,399
Charlotte Hornets in betweens. They played a tremendously tough schedule

147
00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:42,920
and while the Sun's are having a surprisly good season,

148
00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,519
this is still probably a little bit of a step

149
00:06:44,519 --> 00:06:46,639
down in class. With that said, though I'm not in

150
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,560
a hurry to back a team on a seven game slide.

151
00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:50,480
I do think at some point Dallas will start to

152
00:06:50,519 --> 00:06:52,639
play better here in the next month, maybe with the

153
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,439
new pieces now that the trade deadline has passed, they'll

154
00:06:55,439 --> 00:06:56,920
start to round out. But we want to see that

155
00:06:56,959 --> 00:06:59,199
bottoming process first on A team that's on a seven

156
00:06:59,199 --> 00:07:02,079
game slide should be a focused spot. Also for Phoenix,

157
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:03,720
they're on a one in three straight up one and

158
00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,519
three ats slide, but still a solid team overall, and

159
00:07:07,519 --> 00:07:11,000
they're coming off a bad offensive game, really three bad

160
00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,199
offensive games, and those three losses one hundred and three

161
00:07:13,199 --> 00:07:15,720
points are less scored each of those three times. I

162
00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,839
think they get back on track though, against a Dallas

163
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,800
defense that's routinely giving up over fifty percent shooting recently.

164
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,160
And I talk a lot about the value of team totals.

165
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,199
If I think it's a good bounce back spot for Phoenix,

166
00:07:26,439 --> 00:07:28,680
if we've seen sharp money on the over in this game,

167
00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:30,959
let's look at the Phoenix team total up and over

168
00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,000
one eighteen and a half. I like the Suns up

169
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:34,800
and over one eighteen and a half. Good bounce back

170
00:07:34,839 --> 00:07:38,000
offensive performance tonight. And if Dallas does start to play better,

171
00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,399
as I think they will soon, that takes a little

172
00:07:40,399 --> 00:07:42,160
that of risk away. Can just play the Suns team

173
00:07:42,199 --> 00:07:43,959
total up and over one eighteen and a half.

174
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 2: Did you see what happened in the Charlotte game last night?

175
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:49,839
Speaker 1: No?

176
00:07:49,879 --> 00:07:52,240
Speaker 4: I did not, Actually I did not see the Charlotte game.

177
00:07:52,439 --> 00:07:57,079
Just brawl brawl though I heard those game, so that

178
00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:57,879
was the Charlotte game.

179
00:07:57,879 --> 00:08:00,279
Speaker 1: I'd heard about a brawl, but okay, yeah.

180
00:08:00,199 --> 00:08:03,199
Speaker 2: It's and of course involved Isaiah Stewart. They all do.

181
00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,000
But I got to tell you this Eastern Conference playoffs,

182
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,959
this is setting up for an absolute rock fight with

183
00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,279
the Knicks, the Pistons, the Hornets now getting into it.

184
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,639
This Eastern Conference playoffs could be a lot of fun.

185
00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,480
So anytime you get Isaiah Stewart coming in, flying off

186
00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:22,240
the bench, attempting to maul and mug a Charlotte Hornet,

187
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,600
Charlotte credit man. They did not back down at all.

188
00:08:25,639 --> 00:08:27,279
So it was a really really fun game.

189
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:28,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's kind of like the enforcer.

190
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,519
Speaker 4: He's like the thug that comes off the bench in

191
00:08:30,519 --> 00:08:32,840
an NHL game, and that's what you got them there for.

192
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:34,879
By the way, that snapped Charlotte's I talk about while

193
00:08:34,879 --> 00:08:37,080
they were playing. That snapped their nine game win streak,

194
00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,159
which was like their best in like several decades. I mean,

195
00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,159
it's interesting, Andy, I was telling someone else, this is yesterday,

196
00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,639
about a month ago. You know the NBA stats, the

197
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,200
advanced stats page, you can toggle like five games, ten

198
00:08:48,279 --> 00:08:50,559
games full season. It was about a month ago, and

199
00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,720
I put last ten games, and the Hornets had the

200
00:08:52,759 --> 00:08:56,320
best net rating in the NBA. This is like early January,

201
00:08:56,919 --> 00:08:58,799
but I think they'd only gone like five and five

202
00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:00,639
straight up, but they had the best ready, which is

203
00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,320
offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency. It's a really you know,

204
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,279
it's basically who's playing well. So, you know, I thought

205
00:09:07,279 --> 00:09:09,240
that was interesting because they were a mediocre team at

206
00:09:09,279 --> 00:09:11,480
the time and now they've since basically they won like

207
00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,759
nine straight right after that, so it's something to keep

208
00:09:13,759 --> 00:09:15,799
an eye on. It was a, you know, a barometer

209
00:09:15,879 --> 00:09:17,879
of something that was about to happen. We'll see if

210
00:09:17,879 --> 00:09:20,120
they come back down to earth or not. Three of

211
00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:22,919
their last four games forty one percent shooting or worse.

212
00:09:23,519 --> 00:09:25,360
So there again, that's a little bit of an indicator

213
00:09:25,399 --> 00:09:27,360
sometimes when teams are turning that corner. And I would

214
00:09:27,399 --> 00:09:30,320
say be careful with the Hornets over the next several weeks.

215
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,159
They're probab due to regress, and they've got, oh, by

216
00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,399
the way, Atlanta, Houston, Cleveland on deck. And then those

217
00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:38,120
feisty Washington Wizards who are playing for a championship even

218
00:09:38,159 --> 00:09:39,759
though they won't be eligible for the playoffs.

219
00:09:41,399 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that Hornets team. I don't know if

220
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,879
they regress. I think they're really good, so they'll be

221
00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,559
there'll be a fun, fun team to watch here. All right,

222
00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,320
we're gonna move to college basketball. We're going to talk

223
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:57,399
Purdue in Nebraska. Don't know much about Nebraska except for

224
00:09:58,399 --> 00:10:02,600
they're a polarizing team apparently with are they are they great?

225
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,600
Are they not great? Overrated? Properly rated? One and a

226
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,840
half point favorite here? Basically pick them over under one

227
00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:12,480
forty eight and a half start with Nebraska. What's your

228
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:13,799
take on this team?

229
00:10:14,279 --> 00:10:15,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wasna say.

230
00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 4: First of all, I think the betty markets are a

231
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,120
little conflicted as well, because if you check some of

232
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,799
the early numbers here, you know, some of the initial

233
00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:25,799
books opened, like one, it's one forty eight, but most

234
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:28,399
other books open one and a half too, and that's

235
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,759
exactly where the side and totals are. So very little

236
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,000
movement in this game. And by the way, this is

237
00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,679
your national TV game. It's seven Eastern on Fox Sports

238
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:39,399
one Tuesday night. Nebraska's for real. I write them as

239
00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,720
one of the best teams in the country. I have

240
00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:44,519
them pretty much the last several weeks now my top ten,

241
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,000
top twelve of my power Metrics, along with Purdue as well.

242
00:10:48,639 --> 00:10:51,240
Purdue had lost three straight after a seventeen and one

243
00:10:51,279 --> 00:10:53,240
start seven to zero in the conference. They dropped three

244
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,320
in a row against good UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana squads.

245
00:10:57,039 --> 00:10:59,919
Gotten back on track the last two games with wins

246
00:11:00,279 --> 00:11:02,600
against Maryland and Oregon. Stepped down in class, but this

247
00:11:02,639 --> 00:11:05,960
is another step up in class for Purdue. They did

248
00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,639
struggle against those other quality teams I mentioned, barely beat

249
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:14,159
usc barely beat Iowa. They did blow out Auburn earlier

250
00:11:14,159 --> 00:11:15,919
this year, which is one of the class teams they played,

251
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,840
but they also lost by twenty three against a good

252
00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:19,840
Iowa State team. So Purdue has been a little dicey

253
00:11:19,919 --> 00:11:22,240
when stepping up this year, and that is something I'd

254
00:11:22,279 --> 00:11:23,759
like to look at when we're talking about if a

255
00:11:23,799 --> 00:11:25,919
team's a quality like one, two or three seed, I'd

256
00:11:25,919 --> 00:11:28,679
like to look how they'd done against other quality teams.

257
00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:31,720
Nebraska a twenty and oh start nine to zero the

258
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,320
conference up until the last week of January, and then

259
00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,799
they dropped back to back games against Michigan and Illinois.

260
00:11:36,919 --> 00:11:39,759
No shame in those losses. Coming into this week, I

261
00:11:39,799 --> 00:11:42,440
had them both as possible one seeds. I think Illinois

262
00:11:42,519 --> 00:11:44,840
probably ended up as like a two seed. Michigan, as

263
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,159
you all know, I've talked about this a lot. I

264
00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:47,720
think they're the most talented team of the country, the

265
00:11:47,759 --> 00:11:50,159
most dangerous team. Everyone's like Arizona's number one seed. How

266
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,000
dare you say that? Well, Michigan's the most dominant team

267
00:11:53,039 --> 00:11:56,279
down low, both two point defense and offense. And when

268
00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:58,799
you have to win six games in a row in March,

269
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:00,799
I like teams that don't really on the three quite

270
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,480
as much in the more interior strength. So a lost

271
00:12:03,519 --> 00:12:06,200
to Michigan, lost to Illinois, no shame there. They did

272
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,120
bounce back. This is Nebraska bouncing back Saturday as expected

273
00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,759
with a twelve point win at Rutgers. So two solid

274
00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:15,919
teams here. You look at how Rutgers. I'm sorry. Nebraska

275
00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,200
has stepped up in CLASSA this year. They beat Michigan

276
00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:21,639
Wisconsin by thirty and they'd also beaten Illinois, so that

277
00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,960
was also a revenge game from Illinois. They've beaten them

278
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,399
earlier in the season on the road. I like Nebraska.

279
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,120
I think they're for real, and for the fact that

280
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,519
they are kind of conflicted in the betting markets, we

281
00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,759
continue to get some value with them. Two evening matched teams.

282
00:12:34,799 --> 00:12:37,120
I'll take the home team in this one. By the way,

283
00:12:37,159 --> 00:12:39,720
both teams give up a lot of shots from three

284
00:12:39,759 --> 00:12:42,879
point range. There's three hundred and sixty five teams in

285
00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:45,000
the nation and Division one men's basketball, and these two

286
00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:47,799
teams ranked bottom twenty or however you want to phrase it.

287
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,120
They both give up the bottom twenty as far as

288
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,000
the most amount of shots from three point range. They

289
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,240
both allow theirtonus to shoot almost forty five percent of

290
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,320
their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, So that's

291
00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,120
going to be an important aspect here. I believe that

292
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:01,759
home teams normally shoot better from three point range, favors

293
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:05,639
Nebraska and Dulso. Nebraska takes more threes this season, and

294
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,600
they have the better three point defense statistically, So I

295
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,960
like the matchup here. I think they hit their threes tonight,

296
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,480
and I take the Cornhuskers here to keep the roll

297
00:13:14,639 --> 00:13:17,200
going and move their record this year now to twenty

298
00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,039
two and two straight up and eleven and two in

299
00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,000
the conference. If you're gonna play it, I would lay

300
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,200
it in Nebraska minus the one and a half that's

301
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:24,759
at seven Eastern on Fox Sports one.

302
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,600
Speaker 2: Nice. All right, Steve, hold it up, let's see it.

303
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:34,159
Speaker 4: So it's it is five out, five out five dollars.

304
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,039
I do that because I have three, maybe for the

305
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,360
first time ever, three five dollars Tuesday best bets. You know,

306
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,159
we used to be allowed to put up one play

307
00:13:43,799 --> 00:13:45,559
and I didn't Actually I didn't say anything, but I'll

308
00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:47,000
say that I said something. I said, No, that's not

309
00:13:47,039 --> 00:13:48,759
fair to a blanket in the legacy of one of

310
00:13:48,759 --> 00:13:50,519
the greatest American presidents. We should be able to do

311
00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,840
multiple five dollars plays. So now it is unlimited on Tuesdays,

312
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,159
and I'm taking advantage two NBA one college wo's my

313
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,919
strongest college basketball best night bell on the entire board

314
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,600
tonight for five dollars, and then my top two NBA

315
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,960
plays for five dollars each. As you know, we've been

316
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:07,879
read out in the NBA hit almost sixty percent the

317
00:14:07,879 --> 00:14:10,759
past several months, number one all time on NBA side

318
00:14:10,759 --> 00:14:13,759
best bet profit and normally it'd be seventy five dollars

319
00:14:13,799 --> 00:14:16,919
to get all three plays tonight. Nope, five dollars each

320
00:14:17,039 --> 00:14:19,960
because it is five dollars Tuesday, no promo code need it,

321
00:14:20,399 --> 00:14:22,960
And of course a bonus free play every day every afternoon,

322
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,279
I put the last cut for my best bet card

323
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,000
up as a bonus free play. Stevemarrillwager talk dot com

324
00:14:29,039 --> 00:14:33,279
get there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm

325
00:14:33,679 --> 00:14:35,960
and five dollars is too much. Don't forget about that

326
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:37,720
free play on It's going to be up this afternoon.

327
00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:40,080
In hoops as well. If you're like of these videos

328
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,080
these free play videos thumbs up, like comment below and

329
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,120
I will keep them coming and let me know who

330
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,080
you like Tuesday night in basketball include some analysis as well.

331
00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,000
You know we'd love to learn and earn and win

332
00:14:50,039 --> 00:14:53,080
together here on wager Talk TV and click subscribe. We

333
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,200
are so close to two hundred and fifty thousand subscribers.

334
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,120
Make sure you're one of them and click the bell

335
00:14:58,200 --> 00:14:59,919
as well. So you know in these daily free basket

336
00:15:00,039 --> 00:15:02,080
both videos are posted each and every day right here

337
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:03,240
on wager Talk TV.

338
00:15:04,799 --> 00:15:07,159
Speaker 2: It's fifteen dollars Friday for Steve over.

339
00:15:07,639 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 1: Tuesday day of the week. Andy was so excited for

340
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:12,840
you on Friday. He still thinks it's Friday. And I

341
00:15:12,919 --> 00:15:13,960
love that, Andy, Thank you.

342
00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:15,639
Speaker 2: I appreciate it absolutely.

343
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 4: And sorry about that bad bet you had in the

344
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,440
Super Bowl. We didn't get to talk yesterday. I know

345
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,480
you had over fifteen and a half punts at like

346
00:15:21,519 --> 00:15:24,000
plus one million, so I feel bad for you there,

347
00:15:24,039 --> 00:15:27,559
but I know the prop master but occasionally Yeah. Also

348
00:15:27,759 --> 00:15:29,960
over twenty and a half field goals and punts combined

349
00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:31,759
for plus two millions. So that was a That was

350
00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:33,399
a bad beat, man, That was a bad beat.

351
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:33,879
Speaker 1: Yeah.

352
00:15:33,919 --> 00:15:36,799
Speaker 2: I also it was a bummer five percent on minus

353
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,799
forty eight thousand for a couple to not get married

354
00:15:39,879 --> 00:15:43,360
during the halftime show. Just yeah, bummer of losers like

355
00:15:43,679 --> 00:15:45,799
all over the place, Steve.

356
00:15:45,919 --> 00:15:49,559
Speaker 1: Bad beat, just yeah, bad beat on that one. Hey,

357
00:15:49,639 --> 00:15:50,519
let me ask you real quick.

358
00:15:50,639 --> 00:15:53,279
Speaker 4: I don't think they don't have live gatorade markets, right,

359
00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,039
everyone pulls that down before the game.

360
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 1: The only spot is now Steve. I know, you guys

361
00:15:59,639 --> 00:16:01,840
talking about on the best betting show ever, like these

362
00:16:01,879 --> 00:16:06,240
prediction markets that are just so insanely manipulatable that those

363
00:16:06,279 --> 00:16:10,120
are essentially live until until the prop is graded. So

364
00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:13,039
that not not on a regulated sports book, no, but

365
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,840
people were very excited and were hammering that yellow and.

366
00:16:17,399 --> 00:16:18,840
Speaker 4: You get where I'm going with that, right, Yeah, you

367
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,720
guys saw that they had the wooden spatchelor and they

368
00:16:20,759 --> 00:16:22,600
were staring at about the two or three minute mark,

369
00:16:22,639 --> 00:16:24,480
and it did occur to me like, I bet there

370
00:16:24,559 --> 00:16:26,399
is somewhere that has these odds up still.

371
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:28,919
Speaker 1: Hey, but that's the great thing about the mark. Some

372
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:30,879
local guy that was just like he was in the

373
00:16:30,879 --> 00:16:33,200
bathroom and he was like, goddamn screwed.

374
00:16:39,399 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 4: Course, So I didn't kill them, probably as much as

375
00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,039
it would have had it been like blue or if

376
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:46,080
the Patriots were you know, winning or something, because yeah,

377
00:16:46,159 --> 00:16:48,559
yellow line. Yanni came on Friday, Dan and gave it

378
00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,960
to us here on wager Talk Today, and the syndicated

379
00:16:52,039 --> 00:16:53,879
hit it and it was like even money in most spots.

380
00:16:53,919 --> 00:16:55,720
So but yeah, I thought of that. I was like,

381
00:16:55,799 --> 00:16:57,960
this is crazy. They're like literally showing the winning color

382
00:16:58,000 --> 00:16:59,559
when the team has a double digit lead here.

383
00:16:59,559 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 1: It's pretty interesting.

384
00:17:02,039 --> 00:17:04,599
Speaker 2: Oh good stuff, all right? Steam mail has not one,

385
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,160
not two, but three five.

386
00:17:08,799 --> 00:17:11,319
Speaker 4: I can only get one day, Andy, I can only

387
00:17:11,319 --> 00:17:13,880
get one because I've only got enough for one fifth

388
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:15,599
of another play for some reason, I have a dollar

389
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,119
bill here along with the five.

390
00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 1: Check the couch, Go fine, go find about a quarter

391
00:17:24,039 --> 00:17:24,599
the other day?

392
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,839
Speaker 4: Actually, I saw some pennies down the other day, and

393
00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:29,279
I normally wouldn't pick up a penny, but now that

394
00:17:29,319 --> 00:17:31,799
they're not making them anymore, Like, if I see pennies.

395
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 1: I'm grabbing them. It's electors items.

396
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 4: They're collector's items, exactly are These are pretty nasty pennies,

397
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,079
but they're still worth more than the scent. It costs

398
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,160
three cents to make a penny nowadays, that's why they

399
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,920
discontinued them. But I think it's like fifteen cents to

400
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,000
make a nickel. It's even more expensive to make nickels.

401
00:17:45,039 --> 00:17:47,880
I think it's thirteen cents, So I mean nickels are

402
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,960
going to be next right, we can't do nickel Friday anymore.

403
00:17:52,759 --> 00:17:56,559
Nickel beers. Andy lived on nickel beers at a university.

404
00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:58,359
Speaker 1: I did.

405
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,400
Speaker 2: We ad a bar that did penny beers until the

406
00:18:02,519 --> 00:18:04,119
first person went to the bathroom.

407
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,680
Speaker 1: That was a that's an electric promotion, that's all.

408
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,920
Speaker 2: But the bar would open beers and they just gave

409
00:18:11,079 --> 00:18:13,400
you a little cuffs. Beers were a penny, and the

410
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,599
bathrooms were like right over there, and you just you

411
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:18,880
held it. You held it, you held it. And then

412
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:20,559
the first person that would go to the bathroom beers,

413
00:18:20,599 --> 00:18:23,359
what's regular place, and everyone would start booing, oh yeah,

414
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,079
except then everyone would just run over and follow him,

415
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:26,880
thinking God.

416
00:18:26,799 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 1: That you're like, you're a jerk. Thank you, you're a jerk.

417
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,039
Thank you. Yeah. Yeah, promotion must be back because the

418
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,000
local CBS saw a spike in depends purchases.

419
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:37,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was just gonna say, that's the first thing

420
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:39,400
I thought it. Dan, I wouldn't do that, but like

421
00:18:39,519 --> 00:18:44,400
I was thinking that. But then again, it doesn't do

422
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,319
any good unless you have a really weak bladder, because

423
00:18:46,319 --> 00:18:48,680
if anybody else goes it wouldn't matter at that point.

424
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,440
But you don't want to be that guy or that girl.

425
00:18:51,519 --> 00:18:53,559
Speaker 1: Don't want to be that guy. Don't bring that's a

426
00:18:53,599 --> 00:18:56,640
great promotion, Andy, I love that idea. Well, guys, don't

427
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,279
be that guy and not take advantage of five dollars Twoday.

428
00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:02,960
Steve's got three of the five dollars Tuesday plays and

429
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:04,519
he's got stuff up as well, all of them do.

430
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,160
So don't be that guy either Steve or girls.

431
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 4: Hey, we're equal gender offensive on this program, so don't

432
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:11,160
be nice girl either.

433
00:19:11,319 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 1: Damn it. Yes, it is very fair. We're equal opportunity

434
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,279
offenders right here. Steve always a pleasure buddy, Thank you man.

435
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,039
See I have a good one. Check out Steve on

436
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,160
the channel as well, guys. He still has his Top

437
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,599
twenty five video coming. It's college basketball edition, So Steve,

438
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:28,759
I think the video ended up being like almost a

439
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,720
half hour because he breaks down anytime there's a top

440
00:19:31,799 --> 00:19:33,000
twenty five team in action.

441
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 3: So Steve doing the work for you guys. Hit that

442
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,400
like button, subscribe and a great.

443
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 1: Way give him a little five dollar tip with the

444
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,160
five dollars Tuesday, Andy, what do you got rocking for today?

445
00:19:43,599 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 2: Big cash last night for a four percent NBA play

446
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,920
that makes four winners in a row, going for five

447
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,319
straight tonight, it was a no brainer to put up

448
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,119
a five dollars play for NBA. So we're running really

449
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,400
really good in NBA, running good in all sports. We

450
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,680
had a nice four percent tennis cash overnight and the

451
00:19:59,759 --> 00:20:02,440
small we're running the six days for the price of three,

452
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,759
you get all of our plays NBA golf, cricket, tennis, rugby,

453
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,160
anything that's just six nine dollars. And we're running the

454
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,200
one year special. It's five hundred dollars off and you

455
00:20:12,279 --> 00:20:14,720
get a bonus twenty five percent coupon that you can

456
00:20:14,839 --> 00:20:19,640
use on anything, anybody and any handicapper. So that is

457
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,519
a smoking deal. That adds up. So Dan, Yeah, twenty

458
00:20:22,559 --> 00:20:25,640
one units in twenty twenty six. Yeah, one hundred and

459
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,279
forty one the last three years, Nobody wager talks one more.

460
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,000
So got good short term, good long term. But it

461
00:20:31,079 --> 00:20:34,279
starts to night with the four percent NBA best bet.

462
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:38,680
That is a really really excited about that. Feeling frisky

463
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,920
here Dan, the comments section, I'm feeling generous here. First off, Rex,

464
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,559
you won. My friend you we had a little friendly wager.

465
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,480
We didn't see you yesterday. So Rex, you get a

466
00:20:49,519 --> 00:20:52,839
free three day pass. Uh So in the comment section

467
00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:54,759
after the show, make sure you do it. After the show,

468
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,359
give us your wager Talk user name and i'll give

469
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,839
you we'll apply a three day pass to your account.

470
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:03,920
Correctly called the I mean you didn't even call bread

471
00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:08,000
all spread? Uh he called So that was a that

472
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:13,000
was a real good one. And then okay, Roy uh

473
00:21:13,599 --> 00:21:17,039
says Finland men minus one and a half. I'm gonna

474
00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:19,039
take a sprinkle of my tennis winnings and I will

475
00:21:19,079 --> 00:21:21,880
play Finland minus one and a half. Roy if the

476
00:21:22,039 --> 00:21:25,880
cash is three day pass for you, my friend. Yeah,

477
00:21:26,559 --> 00:21:29,039
after the show's over, put your wager talk user name

478
00:21:29,079 --> 00:21:31,839
in the comments section and let's get in this. Let's

479
00:21:31,839 --> 00:21:33,559
get this finish team.

480
00:21:34,559 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: All right? Then Finland Finland men it is? And then Boses,

481
00:21:40,279 --> 00:21:42,680
I'll go into comments and bury him like people do

482
00:21:42,839 --> 00:21:47,160
to us when we love it. Keep the comments coming, guys,

483
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:48,559
let us know what you're betting the night.

484
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 2: All right? Wow, okay, so you've gotten lacrosse, You've got

485
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,880
some Olympic hockey. We're watching the the US. That's why

486
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,599
I'm wearing my US A hoodie here. I'm watching the

487
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,920
doing in the early Yeah. US is up one nothing,

488
00:22:05,039 --> 00:22:07,680
So all right, let's bring in Jesse. We got to

489
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,759
talk about what's up Jesse.

490
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: How are you had a pretty good weekend? Boys? Oh

491
00:22:14,319 --> 00:22:16,799
tell me that I gave you a shout out on

492
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,240
the the the show yesterday, Jesse, because I was talking

493
00:22:20,279 --> 00:22:22,400
about how I got buried. None of my Super Bowl

494
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,160
squares hit. My props weren't really all that great. However,

495
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,640
I had an eight to one on Kenneth Walker to

496
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,279
win the MVP thanks to Jesse Shoole. So at the

497
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,519
worst man we had, we had a at least break

498
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,640
even night thanks to the breakdown you gave here on

499
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:37,000
the show.

500
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,519
Speaker 5: So great work there, man, how you been Yeah, thanks

501
00:22:39,599 --> 00:22:42,799
for the Showdowed. I actually tuned into the show right

502
00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:44,920
at the moment. I didn't even hear about your losses

503
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,000
in the Super Bowl. As soon as I turned on

504
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,079
the show was Dan saying, oh, man, Jesse Shoule called

505
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,400
the m v P, and I the damn it's good timing.

506
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, that was That was a hillacious call. I

507
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,599
wouldn't have had the to do one.

508
00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:03,799
Speaker 1: And I also got to sound like a genius in

509
00:23:03,839 --> 00:23:05,039
front of all my friends because I was like, did

510
00:23:05,079 --> 00:23:07,559
you know no one's won the running back MVP since

511
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,519
nineteen ninety seven? It was the Broncos who were in

512
00:23:09,559 --> 00:23:11,119
the Super Bowl, and everyone was like, how do you

513
00:23:11,279 --> 00:23:15,160
know this shit? I was like, yeah, I at the.

514
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,759
Speaker 5: Risk of inflating my ego. Dan, do you remember my

515
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,240
passing yards prop from two years ago?

516
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, dude, that was that was? Why what was that?

517
00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:26,559
That was like a thirteen to one that was I.

518
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 5: Think it was also eight to one, but it was

519
00:23:28,839 --> 00:23:32,000
Joe Burrow to lead the playoffs in passing yards and

520
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,240
he had a two hundred yard lead on Mahome. So

521
00:23:34,319 --> 00:23:36,960
everybody assumed, of course Mahomes is gonna throw for over

522
00:23:37,039 --> 00:23:39,519
two hundred yards in the Super Bowl, and I said, well,

523
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:44,720
you know, probably, but maybe not. And of course that's

524
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,759
that's a couple of big hits in the last three years.

525
00:23:46,799 --> 00:23:49,680
So that's that's something to be happy about.

526
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: Jesse's the future Shool. Jesse the future Shool the new nickname.

527
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 5: Of course, I did party a little bit too hard

528
00:23:56,519 --> 00:23:59,799
over the weekend. Probably had a few too many bottles

529
00:23:59,839 --> 00:24:03,519
of red wine. Eight damn near a whole smoked pecania

530
00:24:03,599 --> 00:24:07,519
by myself. So I'm really behaving myself during the week

531
00:24:07,599 --> 00:24:09,599
this week on another water fast.

532
00:24:10,839 --> 00:24:14,319
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the NBA, Jesse. Let's talk

533
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,039
Spurs and Lakers. Doncic remains to be out. Spurs look

534
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,200
like they'll be on, They'll be on full full full

535
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,759
mode ahead. Austin Reeves played last night, but he is

536
00:24:24,839 --> 00:24:27,319
still dealing with a little bit of an injury. I'm

537
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,359
keeping my eye on this on this lineup for the

538
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,160
Lakers because Lebron doesn't like to play back to backs.

539
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,960
You're putting Austin Reeves a little bit compromised out there

540
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,200
on a back to back. Feels a little dangerous. But

541
00:24:38,319 --> 00:24:40,359
right now, the Spurs are minus eight and a half

542
00:24:40,519 --> 00:24:43,039
over under two twenty seven and a half. For me,

543
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,200
it would be Spurs or nothing. Thundertook care business against

544
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480
this Lakers team. How do you break it this one down?

545
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,599
Speaker 5: Well, there's not a lot of money to be made

546
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,119
fading Andy Lang in the NBA, so I'm gonna tend

547
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,799
to agree with how you open there. Yeah, the Lakers

548
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,880
coming off that law to the Oklahoma City Thunder and

549
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,279
not an Oklahoma City team playing at full strength. Oklahoma

550
00:25:05,319 --> 00:25:08,519
City's missing two or three of the top four scores

551
00:25:08,559 --> 00:25:12,920
as well. And yeah, Lebron played twenty nine minutes. It's

552
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,079
not just that Lebron on the second game of a

553
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,759
back to back, but you look at the minutes that

554
00:25:16,839 --> 00:25:22,039
both Lebron and Austin Reeves played. Both played twenty nine minutes,

555
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,880
and that's an indication to me that they're throwing in

556
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,599
the towel here in the second game of a back

557
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,200
to back, because, as you mentioned, Lebron doesn't like to

558
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:33,440
play back to backs at the best of times, and

559
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,279
Reeves was operating on a minutes restriction. He was gradually

560
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,079
bumping up his minutes, and there's no point in having

561
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,799
a minutes restriction if you're going to bump it up

562
00:25:42,839 --> 00:25:45,640
to twenty nine minutes and then send him out there

563
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,720
the next day. So I would be very shocked if

564
00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:50,960
Reeves plays many minutes at all tonight. I think the

565
00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:54,440
same is true for Lebron. And yeah, this has a

566
00:25:54,759 --> 00:25:58,640
double digit blowout written all over it. The Spurs thirty

567
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,519
six and seventeen, sixteen to ten on the road. There

568
00:26:01,519 --> 00:26:04,319
are just four points out of first place in the

569
00:26:04,559 --> 00:26:08,799
NBA behind Oklahoma City, and they've absolutely owned the Thunder

570
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,519
this year. With the injuries to the Thunder, I think

571
00:26:12,559 --> 00:26:15,839
the Spurs have a legitimate chance to pass Oklahoma City

572
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:20,000
and finish first in the standings this season. They're healthy,

573
00:26:20,039 --> 00:26:23,559
they're getting healthy at the right time. Wemby's back playing

574
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,039
his regular minutes, and then you got a guy like

575
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,519
Stefan Castle going off for a forty point triple double

576
00:26:29,559 --> 00:26:32,880
against the Mavericks in his last game. You know, I

577
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,119
wasn't high on Wemby and the Spurs coming into this season.

578
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,160
I wasn't as high as most people were. I'm not

579
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,200
ashamed to admit when I'm wrong because it doesn't happen

580
00:26:42,279 --> 00:26:45,599
that often anyways. But yeah, the Spurs are the real deal.

581
00:26:45,759 --> 00:26:47,960
I expect them to win this game by double digits.

582
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,160
If I wasn't already scheduled to talk about this game,

583
00:26:51,839 --> 00:26:54,200
they'd be in the fade. I'd be fading the Lakers today,

584
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:58,799
but I'll fade them anyways. Take San Antonio to win

585
00:26:58,880 --> 00:26:59,640
by double digits.

586
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 2: Move on here to a fade and you don't have

587
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,559
a You know, there's not a lot of options with

588
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,039
teams to fade, and I appreciate you not taking the

589
00:27:09,319 --> 00:27:13,039
weasel way out by saying, oh, the Pacers, Yeah, maybe

590
00:27:13,079 --> 00:27:16,440
the Pacers who are openly tanking are a fade. I

591
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,519
don't like their chances tonight, so appreciate you not doing that.

592
00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 5: What's a team, Well, that would just be disrespectful to

593
00:27:23,039 --> 00:27:25,400
the fade in general to do something like that, because

594
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,920
that goes against the entire principle of betting against big

595
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,559
public teams and pissing everybody off and then getting a

596
00:27:31,599 --> 00:27:34,480
bunch of comments about how this guy dosn't no ball,

597
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,720
and which I absolutely love. By the way, when I

598
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,519
encourage people to comment and hit me up with your

599
00:27:40,599 --> 00:27:43,640
wrong and as long as it's before the game, because

600
00:27:43,839 --> 00:27:46,759
you know coming in after the game is not productive.

601
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,599
But yeah, come at me, tell me how wrong I am,

602
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,519
because my record. When I get a lot of pushback

603
00:27:52,559 --> 00:27:54,200
from the comment section, it's fantastic.

604
00:27:55,519 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: You live for it. You live for it. So what's

605
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,000
a team we're gonna look at fading tonight?

606
00:28:00,559 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 5: As I said, pretty light schedule tonight. It was hard

607
00:28:03,519 --> 00:28:05,160
to find a team that people were going to be

608
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,000
pissed off if I was fading. But maybe we'll have

609
00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:10,359
a few Rockets fans that don't like to hear this,

610
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,400
but I want to fade the Houston Rockets. They're laying

611
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,720
eight points at home against the LA Clippers. Clippers come

612
00:28:17,759 --> 00:28:19,880
in with a losing record, just twenty five and twenty

613
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:24,359
seven on the season, twelve and eighteen on the road,

614
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:28,039
but they're coming off back to back wins against Minnesota

615
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:32,079
and Sacramento. Of course, there was the James Harden trade.

616
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,359
They got rid of hard and I think this line

617
00:28:34,599 --> 00:28:37,480
indicates to me that people are down on the Clippers

618
00:28:37,559 --> 00:28:40,759
since they traded Harden. I don't think that's as big

619
00:28:40,839 --> 00:28:43,640
of a loss as some might feel it is. In fact,

620
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,160
they're four and two straight up without Harden in twenty

621
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,359
twenty six. They're nineteen and six in their last twenty

622
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,880
five games overall. They've split the season series with Houston

623
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,960
this year, the one loss at Houston by a score

624
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,920
of one point fifteen to one thirteen. Kawhi Leonard has

625
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,319
averaged thirty two and a half points, eight and a

626
00:29:05,359 --> 00:29:08,160
half rebounds, and four and a half assists in the

627
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:13,359
two games against the Rockets, and he's averaging over thirty

628
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,079
points per game in his last five games overall. Yes,

629
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,359
the Rockets are the better team. They have the better record.

630
00:29:18,359 --> 00:29:21,759
They're thirty two and nineteen at home, seventeen and six, sorry,

631
00:29:21,839 --> 00:29:24,599
thirty two and nineteen overall, seventeen and six at home,

632
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,319
fourth in the West. They're coming off a one to

633
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,480
twelve one OZH six win over Oklahoma City, but again,

634
00:29:30,839 --> 00:29:33,160
that was an Oklahoma City team without three of its

635
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,279
top four scores, and the Rockets are just three and

636
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,279
seven against the spread in their last ten games. They

637
00:29:40,319 --> 00:29:43,839
haven't won a game by seven or more than seven

638
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,119
points in their last seven games. Overall, to me, this

639
00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:50,240
looks like a game that should be closer than eight points.

640
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,680
The Clippers have been playing awfully well lately, and even

641
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,559
though they don't have James Harden anymore, I believe the

642
00:29:56,599 --> 00:29:59,400
Clippers can compete in this game. I'll take the points

643
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:00,519
with the La Clippers.

644
00:30:00,759 --> 00:30:07,079
Speaker 1: We're fading the Houston Rockets, Jesse Schule. Not afraid fade Houston,

645
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,599
he says. And comment below before the game goes, and

646
00:30:10,759 --> 00:30:14,839
let us know if you're agreeing or disagreeing with our man, Jesse. Jesse,

647
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,319
we talked about these great deals that are going obviously

648
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,440
five dollars Tuesday one of my favorite days simply because

649
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,359
folks who typically wouldn't try us out. Maybe you got

650
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,920
five dollars laying around, you grab one of these guys

651
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,759
featured plays. What do you have up and if folks

652
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,359
are adept buying with that great deal that you can

653
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,240
get six days of all action for just the price

654
00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:36,839
of three, what do they have coming towards this weekend?

655
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 5: As well, brother, all right, Well, I do have a

656
00:30:40,319 --> 00:30:43,359
play in the Big ten, my Big ten best bet

657
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:49,240
for five bucks tonight. I'll have steady NBA props and

658
00:30:49,519 --> 00:30:53,519
sides and totals moving forward. And now that football season's over,

659
00:30:54,119 --> 00:30:57,359
and I've been doing pretty damn well with my money

660
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,960
line picks here at Wader Talk since I joined Wade

661
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:03,680
Your Talk, I am a number one with money line plays,

662
00:31:04,119 --> 00:31:07,200
up one hundred and sixty nine units since twenty twenty two.

663
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,559
With my money line sides NBA. I'm not the best.

664
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,200
I'm not number one with NBA. Steve Merrill just said

665
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,039
he was number one with I think five percent NBA.

666
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,119
But steady winning, And I'll give you the numbers. Up

667
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,960
seventeen units with NBA in twenty twenty six, up forty

668
00:31:25,039 --> 00:31:28,480
three units with NBA since twenty twenty four, sixty nine

669
00:31:28,559 --> 00:31:31,720
units since twenty twenty two, and eighty four units since

670
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:35,480
twenty twenty one. You can't buy a Lamborghini with those profits,

671
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,839
but you can have a pretty good weekend. And if

672
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,319
anybody wants to have a pretty good weekend, join me.

673
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,599
Speaker 1: I love it. That's Jesse the Future and the money

674
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,559
line Shool always a pleasure buddy, good luck with your

675
00:31:48,599 --> 00:31:51,160
action night, Willie, will see you next week. Thanks, Jess,

676
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,880
you next week. Boys, As sir, he's not afraid of

677
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,359
anyone drop the comments below. He welcomes it, he says, Jesse,

678
00:31:59,519 --> 00:32:02,359
what do you do? You're an asshole. They've literally commented

679
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,400
that exact thing, Andy, and the algorithm doesn't know, so

680
00:32:06,799 --> 00:32:08,200
so just keep those comments coming.

681
00:32:08,279 --> 00:32:10,759
Speaker 2: Then, why have already done a promo code? Why have

682
00:32:10,839 --> 00:32:11,839
we done a promo code?

683
00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: Hey thirty, Hey, hold thirty. Hey, I know Johnny's in

684
00:32:19,599 --> 00:32:23,519
probably one of his million meetings, but but Johnny, don't worry. Well,

685
00:32:23,599 --> 00:32:26,000
we'll work with you on a promotion here for for

686
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,119
for Jesse year. Uh. Guys, if you're watching, you appreciate

687
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,480
what we're dropping here for you hit the like button.

688
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,480
We've already given you multiple free plays, Steve Merrill with

689
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,119
back to back hoops plays, Ralph Michaels on deck, and

690
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,680
before we're done here, Andy's also going to take you

691
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,440
all around the world, So plenty of action here to come. Guys.

692
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,359
Please hit that subscribe button tell your friends to do

693
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,480
the same. We're looking to get half a million subscribers

694
00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:53,640
is the goal for us here. As we head on

695
00:32:53,759 --> 00:32:57,640
out of football season into what people call the slower

696
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,480
time of year. Trust me, folks, wager Talk today ain't

697
00:33:00,519 --> 00:33:03,079
slowing down. You're gonna want to be the subscribed as

698
00:33:03,119 --> 00:33:06,160
we move forward here, so a whole three. It's a

699
00:33:06,279 --> 00:33:09,559
trio of you guys. Not a bad idea there. Not

700
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,000
a bad idea there that only gives out curling plays.

701
00:33:12,039 --> 00:33:12,759
Maybe we'll see.

702
00:33:13,039 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 3: We'll see for you, Kierra, I appreciate you tuning in.

703
00:33:16,039 --> 00:33:19,759
Speaker 1: All right, let's bring in the pen. Ralph. Michael's joining

704
00:33:19,799 --> 00:33:20,119
the show.

705
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: Oh he's got this, Ralph, where were you last night?

706
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,279
Speaker 1: You got all those singles?

707
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,039
Speaker 6: Well, you know, Dan, you had said, you know, for

708
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,039
those smaller betters that only want to pay for a

709
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,519
five dollars play at wager Talk on Tuesday, Well, guess what,

710
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:39,400
I'm very excited that we are now offering seven dollars

711
00:33:39,519 --> 00:33:43,359
plays every day of the year moving forward at sports Memo.

712
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,680
And it's not only wager Talk people, it's all the

713
00:33:46,759 --> 00:33:49,920
cappers on all the wager talk sites. They're allowed to

714
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:54,319
load one client play for seven dollars each and every day.

715
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,519
It's a great way to try someone if you're not

716
00:33:57,599 --> 00:33:59,640
a bigger, better and you want to try some short

717
00:33:59,759 --> 00:34:03,759
term or smaller price packages. Make sure you check out

718
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,240
sportsmemo dot com.

719
00:34:06,359 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: I love that, Ralph sportsmemo dot com seven dollars plays,

720
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,119
and we love this five dollars Tuesday. That's now seven

721
00:34:12,159 --> 00:34:15,760
dollars every single day. And one thing that I'll say,

722
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,679
because maybe folks who are tuning in, they say, oh,

723
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,639
you're buying a play, what do you really get? You know,

724
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,159
it's not just hey, here's what I'm betting and they

725
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,039
tell you, hey, good luck with it. There's analysis, you know,

726
00:34:26,079 --> 00:34:28,119
when you're buying from a guy like Ralph, a guy

727
00:34:28,119 --> 00:34:30,440
who you know likes going into databases. That's not the

728
00:34:30,559 --> 00:34:32,719
sole base of his handicap, but there's some things that

729
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,239
you can do that arm yourself and you learn the

730
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,599
guy's handicapping style. So you could say, maybe this is

731
00:34:37,639 --> 00:34:40,400
a guy who I like, a spot guy, or maybe

732
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,039
it's a guy that you like that's a trend guy.

733
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,719
You get to try these folks out and find out

734
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,559
how they arrive to the plays that they find, and

735
00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:49,840
it's their livelihood, folks, so you know that they find

736
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,679
a method that works for them, and maybe it works

737
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:52,920
for you too, Right, Ralph.

738
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 7: You know what I was going through the comments.

739
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 6: I think it was on this show for yesterday and

740
00:34:57,159 --> 00:34:59,159
someone said, oh, they're just going to throw up a

741
00:34:59,199 --> 00:34:59,719
one percent.

742
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:01,519
Speaker 7: Guys.

743
00:35:01,639 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 6: The rule is this, if any of our campers load

744
00:35:05,079 --> 00:35:08,000
to play at Sports Memo, it has to be an

745
00:35:08,159 --> 00:35:11,960
actual client play at wager Talk or on their main site.

746
00:35:12,199 --> 00:35:14,639
So these are not people just adding plays to try

747
00:35:14,679 --> 00:35:17,599
to get a seven dollars sale. These are actual client

748
00:35:17,679 --> 00:35:20,039
plays that they're betting and each and every one of

749
00:35:20,079 --> 00:35:23,079
their all access clients gets. So it takes these seven

750
00:35:23,119 --> 00:35:25,079
dollars plays to an entirely different level.

751
00:35:26,079 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: I love it, man, absolutely love it. Ralph. So that's Ralph.

752
00:35:29,039 --> 00:35:32,039
Michael's check them out wd Dot Buzz backslash r M.

753
00:35:32,119 --> 00:35:34,760
But Ralph, we've got some action to get to here,

754
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,280
my friend, let's talk some of these college basketball games

755
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,719
on the card at for today. It's a huge slate

756
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,000
and some actually really good matchups. When you're running down

757
00:35:44,039 --> 00:35:46,159
the board here, we'll kick it off with you. We

758
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,920
got you NC and Miami. We're seeing the short road

759
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,960
favorite here for the tar Heels. You know, pretty much

760
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,000
a standard total that we're looking at here, Ralph, how

761
00:35:56,039 --> 00:35:58,400
are you looking to attack this game? Well?

762
00:35:58,599 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 7: Number one I'm gonna guess this.

763
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,159
Speaker 6: Most people would probably come on this show and say,

764
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,320
I absolutely have to fade North Carolina.

765
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 1: Why.

766
00:36:09,559 --> 00:36:13,559
Speaker 6: Well, if you look at Hubert Davis's quotes, it's pretty

767
00:36:13,599 --> 00:36:14,199
eye opening.

768
00:36:14,599 --> 00:36:15,599
Speaker 7: You know, after they.

769
00:36:15,559 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 6: Beat number After they beat number four Duke and came

770
00:36:18,519 --> 00:36:21,599
from behind at home, Davis said, I am a bit

771
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,119
numb after that dramatic win, and he.

772
00:36:24,199 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 7: Goes, some of my players are as well.

773
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 6: So you're at home, you're a home dog, you're pull

774
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,719
an upset against an AP top five team. What happens

775
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,800
the next game, Well, that's why we go to the database.

776
00:36:40,199 --> 00:36:45,159
Conference home dogs that beat an AP top five team

777
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:50,440
have gone forty nine and twenty eight sixty four percent

778
00:36:50,519 --> 00:36:55,800
against the spread. And if that team one is a

779
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,880
conference home dog against an AP top five team and

780
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,320
you think now they have to travel, maybe it's a

781
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:07,519
fade situation. Not so fast, twenty eight and sixteen sixty

782
00:37:07,599 --> 00:37:10,800
four percent against the spread. So again, if you're at

783
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,320
a bar talking, there's people that are gonna say this

784
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,920
is a flat spot. Make sure you know the actual

785
00:37:17,079 --> 00:37:20,679
numbers before you speak. Without knowing what the data is

786
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:25,920
on the season. North Carolina now nineteen and four straight

787
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:31,000
up against the number fifty seven schedule. In ACC action,

788
00:37:31,119 --> 00:37:34,599
there's seven to three against the number fourteenth schedule, so

789
00:37:34,679 --> 00:37:38,559
they've played a week ACC schedule. But Miami is eighteen

790
00:37:38,639 --> 00:37:41,880
and five. Their strength of schedule is number one nineteen

791
00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,880
and while they're seven and three in the ACC, they

792
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,559
have played the eighteenth schedule. Yes, there are eighteen teams

793
00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:53,000
in the ACC, so Miami has played the weakest schedule.

794
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:54,639
Speaker 7: That is a concern for me.

795
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 6: In conference offense and defense rankings, these are conference only stats.

796
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,760
North Carolina number one on offense, number fourteen on defense.

797
00:38:04,159 --> 00:38:08,000
That has you thinking overs Miami seven on offense, seven

798
00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:08,639
on defense.

799
00:38:09,079 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 7: Middle of the road for both.

800
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,119
Speaker 6: Now, Miami has missed a very important piece the last

801
00:38:15,159 --> 00:38:18,599
couple games. They lost to Cal at home, they went

802
00:38:18,639 --> 00:38:22,480
to Boston College, they struggled, and that is because True Washington,

803
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,159
their point guard and shooting guard, has missed the last

804
00:38:25,199 --> 00:38:28,559
two games. He is still listed as game time decision,

805
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,440
so he's a big part of this puzzle. If you

806
00:38:31,559 --> 00:38:34,760
tune in and he's not playing, that makes my upcoming

807
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:39,679
North Carolina lean even stronger. At home, Miami only one

808
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,519
in seven against the spread with five straight ATS losses.

809
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:51,840
No North Carolina's ATS numbers are in between. They're nine

810
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:56,639
to five ATS at home, but as a big favorite

811
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,599
or a big dog, they're four to zero against the

812
00:38:59,679 --> 00:39:04,960
spread when they are playing conference games between the sevens,

813
00:39:05,519 --> 00:39:08,719
so plus seven to minus seven. Against conference teams both

814
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,840
home and away, they're zero to five against the spread.

815
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,559
Failing to cover by ten point three points per game.

816
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,320
That's significant if you fail to cover by one or

817
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,800
two points. It depends on it the last shot, when

818
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,239
in or out. When you're failing to cover by double digits,

819
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,320
that's a trend you want to pay attention to. We

820
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,760
look at again, we look at North Carolina. They are

821
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,679
a balanced, balanced team. Of course, they are young. We

822
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,760
saw this team struggle early. You have a freshman point

823
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,239
guard in Dixon, you have a freshman power forward in Wilson.

824
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,440
You have a sophomore Powell who's playing important minutes. And

825
00:39:46,639 --> 00:39:49,480
that's why early in the season they lost to Michigan

826
00:39:49,559 --> 00:39:52,000
State in a neutral setting. They lost to SMU on

827
00:39:52,079 --> 00:39:54,320
the road, They lost to Stanford on the road, They

828
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,719
lost to cal on the road. Now that we're in

829
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,920
the heart of the AC season, we saw them to

830
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,119
go to Virginia and get a f point win. We

831
00:40:01,199 --> 00:40:03,519
saw him going to Georgia Tech and win by sixteen.

832
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,400
I think the maturation process has started. Yes, that Duke

833
00:40:07,519 --> 00:40:10,639
win certainly helps these young freshmen to go.

834
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 7: To Miami and win this game.

835
00:40:14,559 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 1: So I will do this.

836
00:40:17,639 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 6: Miami is three and six against elite offenses or bad defenses,

837
00:40:21,639 --> 00:40:23,679
with a high total of one point fifty two a higher.

838
00:40:24,079 --> 00:40:27,840
But both covers were against teams as a twenty point favorite.

839
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,320
The other cover was on the road when they're playing

840
00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:35,559
a very good offense, they struggle. I think North Carolina

841
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:39,239
does get this done. They get the win, and this

842
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:43,239
young team gets even better after knocking off the Hurricanes.

843
00:40:45,159 --> 00:40:45,679
Speaker 1: I love it.

844
00:40:46,039 --> 00:40:49,199
Speaker 3: Ralph Michaels and people who have been paying attention.

845
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 1: Yes, Frank was seeing the shirt color revealing the pick there, Ralph,

846
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,239
so you knew that UNC. You were coming on here

847
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,559
to talk UNC. So the the outfit matched the way

848
00:40:59,599 --> 00:40:59,800
we were.

849
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 7: I am not that not that smart guys. Do not

850
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:03,440
give me credit.

851
00:41:03,519 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 1: I math Ralph michael Zay before we got Wisconsin and Illinois.

852
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,760
That's a much bigger spread. First, I want you to

853
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,039
just let folks know what you have rocket here tonight.

854
00:41:14,119 --> 00:41:16,159
You mentioned the seven dollars plays at Sports Memo. We

855
00:41:16,199 --> 00:41:18,880
got five dollars Tuesday, and I'd be remiss. You know,

856
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,320
we're talking about this just daily action, you know, six

857
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,239
days action for just the price of three. Ralph, this

858
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,559
is a great time to hop in here. I knows

859
00:41:27,639 --> 00:41:31,480
football is done, folks, but the the you know, the

860
00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:34,280
grind don't stop just because NFL has turned the page.

861
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 6: Right, Ralph, absolutely, you know I only have one play today,

862
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,480
college basketball. Great college basketball run overall eight and two.

863
00:41:42,519 --> 00:41:45,840
The last ten plays eighty percent thirty one and fourteen,

864
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,400
My last forty five plays sixty nine percent. My college

865
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:54,119
basketball on A thirty and thirteen run seventy percent, with

866
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:58,280
college basketball bets bets fourteen and five seventy four percent.

867
00:41:58,679 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 3: I do want to mention to all our viewers.

868
00:42:02,039 --> 00:42:02,760
Speaker 1: My play is.

869
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 6: Only available at wager Talk today for the five dollars.

870
00:42:08,119 --> 00:42:11,400
Why you don't have to worry about going to Sports

871
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,639
Memo and saying I want to buy someone's top play.

872
00:42:15,039 --> 00:42:17,760
The top play of any camper has to be loaded

873
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,360
at wager Talk. So if you get to Sports Memo today,

874
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,440
you won't find me there. Only cappers with multiple plays

875
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,960
get listed there. So just FYI doesn't mean you can't

876
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,079
go look at sports memo but my play. Again, I

877
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,440
only have one play today. Therefore that single play is

878
00:42:34,559 --> 00:42:37,960
always loaded at your home site. That of course WT

879
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:42,920
buzz backslash RM my shortcut to wagertalk dot com.

880
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: Love it. Ralph Michaels, all right, you got one game

881
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,440
that was much closer one and a half point spreads.

882
00:42:49,519 --> 00:42:53,679
Let's talk Wisconsin and the fighting line. I we're seeing

883
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,320
Illinois pretty much painted on my odd logic screen. We're

884
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,920
seeing ten and a half. You think this is a.

885
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 3: Rightful double digit favorite here, Ralph? How are you breaking

886
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:03,920
this one down?

887
00:43:04,599 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 6: Well, you look at Illinois and really you're trying to

888
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:12,599
handicap the mental aspect of Illinois in this game. They're

889
00:43:12,639 --> 00:43:14,840
all the loss. They were eleven and two in the

890
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,719
Big Ten. They were at Michigan State, they lost in overtime.

891
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,840
And you want to talk about a coach that went ballistic,

892
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:27,360
Brad Underwood. After the game they were taking the ball out,

893
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,440
Miami had a fall and he said there was at

894
00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:33,880
least four legitimate falls that Miami was trying to follow

895
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,519
their point guard. They called none of them, and then

896
00:43:37,599 --> 00:43:41,679
they called a fall on Illinois player. Miami makes two

897
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,400
free throws, then they call a cheap fall in Illinois,

898
00:43:45,639 --> 00:43:49,119
Miami gets two free throws. Excuse me, Michigan State gets

899
00:43:49,159 --> 00:43:51,920
two free throws to beat him in overtime eighty five,

900
00:43:52,039 --> 00:43:58,400
eighty two. You look at Wisconsin, Wisconsin had you know,

901
00:43:58,599 --> 00:44:02,239
excuse me, guys, I miss spoke there. The Wisconsin situation

902
00:44:02,519 --> 00:44:05,519
was the one where they followed late and they had

903
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:08,679
Gary Gard so upset in the seventy eight seventy seven

904
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,800
lost to Indiana. So my apologies on that, but listen

905
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:18,480
to this. When a team, when both teams are often

906
00:44:18,559 --> 00:44:23,000
overtime loss, since twenty twelve, it's only happened fifteen times.

907
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,000
That's the situation we have here. We have two conference opponents,

908
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,639
both off and overtime loss. FYI the home favored in

909
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,679
that role of two or more like Illinois twelve and

910
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:37,320
three against the spread eighty percent, Wisconsin sixteen and seven

911
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,559
versus the number fifty two schedule. In the Big Ten,

912
00:44:40,599 --> 00:44:44,239
they're eight and four versus the number fourteen schedule. So again,

913
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:48,039
a week's slate of schedules, Illinois twenty and four versus

914
00:44:48,079 --> 00:44:51,480
the number fifteen schedule eleven and two in the Big Ten,

915
00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:56,440
a week schedule again versus number twelve. Illinois is number

916
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,719
six and eleven conference stats, Indiana one and four and

917
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,480
both offense and defense. But don't this Wisconsin team has

918
00:45:03,519 --> 00:45:06,719
played much better. I'll tell you guys one trick I

919
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:10,519
like doing. Barktorvik dot com is a free site. It's

920
00:45:10,639 --> 00:45:13,760
very similar to ken Palm, but you could put ranges

921
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,760
or dates in there to find out how well teams

922
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,800
are playing of late. If you go back to January

923
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,280
fifth and Monday after the new year, these two offenses

924
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:27,559
are number one and number five in the country inefficiency rankings.

925
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 7: Wisconsin guards have played very well.

926
00:45:30,159 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 6: They're not they don't like physical play in Illinois's physical

927
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,400
That's why I'm going to be leading on Illinois. But

928
00:45:36,639 --> 00:45:40,400
this wisconsint team started the season zero to two ats

929
00:45:40,519 --> 00:45:42,960
on the road. They have covered four straight road games

930
00:45:43,039 --> 00:45:46,760
by twelve points per game. The reason why I'm leading

931
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:50,880
with Illinois is this awful loss. They have rebounded. They

932
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,199
are three and zero and they have dominated also holding

933
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,800
those three opponents to very low scores and very low shooting.

934
00:46:00,119 --> 00:46:04,599
It together, and you look at these teams coming back

935
00:46:04,679 --> 00:46:10,280
home often away loss. Yes, Wisconsin, the offense has become elite,

936
00:46:10,519 --> 00:46:12,840
but their defense is not what we're accustomed to.

937
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 7: It's top sixty, but just barely in that range. And

938
00:46:17,519 --> 00:46:20,480
I think Illinois can pull away in this game late.

939
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,000
This is just a light lean for me.

940
00:46:23,119 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 6: Guys.

941
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,039
Speaker 7: You know the other play is a lot stronger for me.

942
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 6: But I cannot bet on either team because it's very

943
00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:32,960
difficult to not if you don't know how the locker

944
00:46:33,039 --> 00:46:36,159
room feels. Both teams think they deserve those wins on

945
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,440
the road. Both teams now had to travel Wisconsin playing

946
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,760
a second straight road game, Illinois traveling back home after

947
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:46,719
that Saturday game, both teams playing on short rest. But again,

948
00:46:47,199 --> 00:46:50,360
all of that does have me with Illinois. Illinois has

949
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:54,079
a deeper bench and the quality depth in their five, six,

950
00:46:54,199 --> 00:46:57,000
and sevens clearly outrank what Wisconsin does.

951
00:46:58,119 --> 00:47:00,519
Speaker 1: Love it and just the lean to ARD's the big

952
00:47:00,599 --> 00:47:02,440
favorite there, which is why Ralph of course is not

953
00:47:02,519 --> 00:47:06,320
wearing an orange. Sure, it's just lean there on Illinois.

954
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,559
Ralph always a pleasure man. Thanks for coming on, best

955
00:47:09,639 --> 00:47:12,119
of luck with your plays and we'll see you next week, buddy.

956
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:13,199
Speaker 7: Thanks guys, appreciate it.

957
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,599
Speaker 1: Ralph Michael's wt Doup buzz backslash Folks, if you're liking

958
00:47:17,639 --> 00:47:19,880
the show here, still got some free plays to come.

959
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,639
Andy's gonna go over some NBA streaks. Are they live

960
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,119
or are they unsustainable? We're gonna do that in just

961
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:28,559
a second. But while you're hanging out with us, hit

962
00:47:28,639 --> 00:47:31,360
that like button and subscribe you're watching on the rewatch

963
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,280
comment below and let us know which games you're betting on.

964
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,480
We'll be chatting with you up until game time. And

965
00:47:37,559 --> 00:47:40,599
if you're just joining us, reminder we're on Johns Hopkins

966
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,119
this evening, four o'clock Johns Hopkins two and a half

967
00:47:44,159 --> 00:47:45,920
point favorites over at the Green Book.

968
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 3: I still like it at three and a half if

969
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:48,719
that's all you can get.

970
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 1: But just reminding you, lacrosse play and Andy's got one

971
00:47:52,039 --> 00:47:55,559
loaded WT up buzz backslash al both of those plays up.

972
00:47:55,679 --> 00:47:56,320
What's the other one?

973
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,039
Speaker 3: We don't have to go there to find out. But Andy,

974
00:47:58,119 --> 00:47:59,480
let's talk some of these streaks, buddy.

975
00:48:00,159 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 2: Okay, sure, now that we're now that we're done with

976
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,320
football season, we're going to dive here into some NBA

977
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,280
And there's a free tool here that I want to

978
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,840
go over and show you guys to way to look

979
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,800
at some streaks that are unsustainable and how you can

980
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:21,360
figure out when a team is over or underperforming. So

981
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:27,599
this is ev Analytics. It's free. Just create a log

982
00:48:27,679 --> 00:48:29,760
in and it's got all kinds of filters that you

983
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,639
can look at last ten games home away. So here's

984
00:48:33,679 --> 00:48:34,960
what I like to do with them. I like to

985
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:39,440
look see what teams are just performing way over their skis.

986
00:48:39,599 --> 00:48:42,920
There's an Olympic reference for you, So there's a Yeah,

987
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,199
there's a couple of perfect examples today, and they have

988
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:49,000
first half spreads, first half totals, first quarters, they have

989
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,199
everything here. So I like to go to the spreads

990
00:48:53,519 --> 00:48:55,679
and I like to look and see at the last

991
00:48:55,800 --> 00:49:00,800
ten who's performing way above their season average. And we

992
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,440
have a perfect candidate this year. The New York Knicks

993
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:08,559
are nine and one ATS in their last ten games. Dan,

994
00:49:08,679 --> 00:49:11,719
for all you athletes out there, that's ninety percent that

995
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,599
that is unsustainable. So then I can go to how

996
00:49:15,679 --> 00:49:19,000
they have done this season. And this is a team

997
00:49:19,039 --> 00:49:20,840
that's twenty nine and twenty three, so a little bit

998
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,719
over fifty percent. So I'm looking at this and I'm going,

999
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,199
all right, the books are getting ready to adjust this

1000
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,519
because the Knicks have been on fire. We're gonna see

1001
00:49:28,559 --> 00:49:31,280
regression to the mean. So I would look at the

1002
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:35,440
Knicks moving forward to not cover some spreads. Here, there's

1003
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,559
also one, Yeah, there's also one that's going on for totals,

1004
00:49:39,519 --> 00:49:42,639
and there's a team that is on the same nine

1005
00:49:42,679 --> 00:49:45,199
and one streak on the under, and that is the

1006
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:49,000
Boston Celtics. They are one and nine to the under.

1007
00:49:49,159 --> 00:49:53,239
I would say ninety percent is fairly unsustainable in this aspect.

1008
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:55,639
And we can also look, now this team is an

1009
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,920
under team this year nineteen and thirty four, but it's

1010
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,639
still way way above this average. So if you're looking

1011
00:50:01,639 --> 00:50:03,519
for a tool to try and figure out, hey, who's

1012
00:50:03,599 --> 00:50:06,400
hitting this ninety percent mark and when are we gonna

1013
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:08,679
start coming back to earth, I would say the Knicks

1014
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,880
against the spread. Now they're playing the Pacers tonight, so

1015
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:14,880
good luck with that. But then the Boston then the

1016
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:19,079
Boston Celtics nine and one to the under, and you,

1017
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:20,960
I mean, you can do this all day. You can

1018
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,519
go to the first half spreads, the first half totals,

1019
00:50:23,559 --> 00:50:25,280
you can go to home and way, you can go

1020
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,199
to just about everything that they have on here. So

1021
00:50:28,639 --> 00:50:29,800
that's a pretty good tool here.

1022
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:32,039
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, that is free Andy. I love it because

1023
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,440
essentially what you're you're looking to do here, and this

1024
00:50:34,599 --> 00:50:37,159
is something that, like Andy said, we'll dive into this

1025
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,519
just to give you guys some thoughts on maybe how

1026
00:50:39,639 --> 00:50:42,400
to hop in or hop off some of these hot streaks.

1027
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:44,639
But essentially the breakdown there is this is a team

1028
00:50:44,639 --> 00:50:47,360
who has been right around Yeah, the complex matter get

1029
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,760
getting the ninety percent right off the top of the head.

1030
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,880
That's why Andy gets paid the big bucks here. But

1031
00:50:53,119 --> 00:50:55,719
but Andy like it makes a hell of a lot

1032
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:59,639
of sense because a team who's performing right around average

1033
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,760
right have been an average team who is currently on

1034
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:02,519
a hot streak.

1035
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,559
Speaker 3: Folks are riding that, you know, folks are betting that.

1036
00:51:05,639 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 1: Now you don't want to, as Steve Merrill says, catch

1037
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:12,519
the falling knife or anything like that. But as adjustments

1038
00:51:12,599 --> 00:51:15,480
come from the sports book naturally to kind of balance

1039
00:51:15,559 --> 00:51:18,400
out some of that action and also with the you know,

1040
00:51:18,519 --> 00:51:21,000
recency bias we know gets baked into the line. It's

1041
00:51:21,119 --> 00:51:23,599
just the nature of the beast here, you know, looking

1042
00:51:23,639 --> 00:51:26,320
at how a team has performed year over year, much

1043
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,559
more indicator, as we know, the bigger sample size we have,

1044
00:51:30,039 --> 00:51:32,800
the more predictive we currently you know, believe that to

1045
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,000
be The only time that I would maybe say, Andy

1046
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,719
that this would be a difference maker is if it's

1047
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:40,400
right around a big trade that happened or a big

1048
00:51:40,519 --> 00:51:42,639
injury that happened, you know what I mean. That's where

1049
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,280
you have to take those numbers with maybe a grain

1050
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,800
of salt, because what is the reasoning behind this big explosion?

1051
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,679
Speaker 3: Is it just variance or was it a big change

1052
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:53,639
that happened to one of these teams. So yet you

1053
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,480
can't just look at those numbers and worship at the

1054
00:51:56,559 --> 00:51:59,239
altar of it. You have to take it and pair

1055
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,000
it with maybe you know, diving into these leagues a

1056
00:52:02,039 --> 00:52:02,599
little bit more.

1057
00:52:02,679 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: But I love that info, man.

1058
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a filter. It's something to look at, say, hey,

1059
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,199
I really liked the knicks to cover the spread? Go

1060
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,920
got man nine and one? Is that like, is that

1061
00:52:13,039 --> 00:52:15,639
a sign that they're on a massive run against the spread?

1062
00:52:15,679 --> 00:52:17,920
And is that coming back to earth? And I will

1063
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,679
tell you I see props that go on much bigger

1064
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:21,840
runs than ats.

1065
00:52:22,199 --> 00:52:22,679
Speaker 1: The books.

1066
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,559
Speaker 2: The books will adjust the the the ats and the

1067
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:29,320
over unders when they see like at the end of

1068
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,840
the year, if when we go look at over unders

1069
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:33,760
and NB, I'd be stunned if there was a team

1070
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:38,039
that was over sixty two percent, like like for the season.

1071
00:52:38,119 --> 00:52:41,239
They're pretty quick to adjust those. I know Phoenix has

1072
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,639
been a really good ats against the spread and Boston

1073
00:52:43,679 --> 00:52:46,159
pretty good under. But yeah, that's free tool for everybody

1074
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:46,800
that's out there.

1075
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,440
Speaker 1: So Andy, real quick before we go all around the

1076
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:53,079
world here. So this past year, Andy was barf and

1077
00:52:53,159 --> 00:52:57,000
I was the dude Jay and Silent Bob. Maybe in

1078
00:52:57,119 --> 00:53:00,159
our future here, Andy, fifteen bucks, little man, put that

1079
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:01,119
ship in my hand.

1080
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,599
Speaker 3: If that money doesn't show you owe me ow me. Oh,

1081
00:53:04,039 --> 00:53:05,519
that could be in our future.

1082
00:53:05,559 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 1: Andy.

1083
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,800
Speaker 2: See what was nice about our costumes this year is

1084
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,199
they were really funny together on screen. But then we

1085
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:13,719
could just go our separate ways.

1086
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:17,599
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that's like if you're just Silent Bob, if

1087
00:53:17,599 --> 00:53:20,440
you're just Jay and Andy living in Indiana and me

1088
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,639
and Pennsylvania, we're probably not going to be at the

1089
00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:26,159
same Halloween party. I guess we could FaceTime each other,

1090
00:53:28,039 --> 00:53:30,440
well at least lift and we could do it. We can,

1091
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,239
we can do it just yeah, let's strap it to

1092
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,880
your chest. Uh, but we we could do it just

1093
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,800
for the show potentially, but we we have a lot

1094
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,840
of time, folks. It's it's February tenth. We'll we'll, we'll

1095
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,599
have something for you cooked up come come Halloween. But

1096
00:53:43,679 --> 00:53:45,639
we got a hell of a lot to do before then.

1097
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:48,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not even Valentine's Day. We have enough time

1098
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,039
to plan in our Halloween schedule. So six days for

1099
00:53:52,119 --> 00:53:54,679
the price of three six nine dollars valentine'sd a special.

1100
00:53:54,679 --> 00:53:56,639
All right, let's go all around the world. Let's do

1101
00:53:56,719 --> 00:54:00,159
some free plays before we get out of here, right,

1102
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:03,559
Nicks Pacers Jose Alvarado over seven and a half points.

1103
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:07,199
I did this for free play video. We've hit four

1104
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,360
of these in a row, and Jose Alvarado gets a

1105
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:13,039
great chance tonight. The Knicks play the seventy six Ers tomorrow.

1106
00:54:13,159 --> 00:54:15,599
This is a big spread, the Knicks playing the Pacers,

1107
00:54:15,639 --> 00:54:18,159
and again the Pacers top three team that do not

1108
00:54:18,519 --> 00:54:21,199
want to win. Do not be surprised if Alvarado plays

1109
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:23,440
a lot in the fourth quarter. First game with the Knicks,

1110
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:25,440
he had twelve points. A lot of that production was

1111
00:54:25,519 --> 00:54:28,199
in the fourth quarter in a blowout. And this is

1112
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:31,119
an Alverado that's gonna play minutes in the playoffs. He's

1113
00:54:31,159 --> 00:54:33,599
gonna need to get reps in minutes with his teammates

1114
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:35,480
and the Knicks first leg of a back to back.

1115
00:54:35,679 --> 00:54:37,920
Don't be surprised if Alvarado plays a lot goes over

1116
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:41,000
seven and a half. This comes from Ben Burns off

1117
00:54:41,199 --> 00:54:44,960
of our free picks page over at wager Talk Wisconsin.

1118
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:51,000
Wisconsin Milwaukee over IU Indianapolis. Wisconsin very much underachieved according

1119
00:54:51,039 --> 00:54:54,320
to the power rankings nine and seventeen this season IU

1120
00:54:54,679 --> 00:54:57,960
seven and eighteen. That was expected because of the terrible

1121
00:54:58,039 --> 00:55:01,000
season that was Konslwaukee's been having. You're getting just a

1122
00:55:01,039 --> 00:55:04,639
straight money line at minus one ten. Dan Wisconsin has

1123
00:55:04,639 --> 00:55:07,920
won ten straight against IU Indianapolis, So this is this

1124
00:55:08,119 --> 00:55:10,840
is kind of a no brainer here, and then we'll

1125
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:12,840
do golf here. We got the Pebble Beach Pro Am

1126
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:18,400
Scottie Scheffler top five including ties. Danny's finished first and

1127
00:55:18,519 --> 00:55:21,599
third this year going back to last season, eight straight

1128
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:27,440
top five finishes, and Dan he was like, I think

1129
00:55:27,519 --> 00:55:30,800
he was four shots out of the outside the cut

1130
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:37,039
on Thursday he finished third. That's how good goodness man

1131
00:55:37,199 --> 00:55:39,639
is like he had a horrible first round. Instead of

1132
00:55:39,679 --> 00:55:41,840
missing the cut, the man fought back to finish in

1133
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,079
the top three. So we're gonna go over a lot

1134
00:55:44,159 --> 00:55:47,079
more golf later today, myself, Dan and Jan we're gonna

1135
00:55:47,079 --> 00:55:50,280
break down Pebble Beach pro am, including a big DFS

1136
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,800
cash that we had. Dan, I am the golf DFS king.

1137
00:55:54,079 --> 00:55:59,079
Speaker 1: I have actually insane. It's actually insane.

1138
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,320
Speaker 2: I wish like, why don't I have these like talents

1139
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,800
that like can do good for humanity or you know,

1140
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:10,719
like some billion dollar idea. No, what's what's laying good at?

1141
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:16,039
Cashing in golf DFS lineups and in draft kings? Like, listen,

1142
00:56:16,079 --> 00:56:19,199
better than nothing? It is better that it is better

1143
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,159
than nothing, But I mean, it's next, but.

1144
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 1: It is better than nothing. And you just think it

1145
00:56:27,519 --> 00:56:30,800
could be worse. You could just be good at betting lacrosse.

1146
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:39,639
It could always be worse. And god, folks, what are

1147
00:56:39,679 --> 00:56:41,719
you the best in the world at doing that doesn't

1148
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:42,960
help the world? Let us know.

1149
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,239
Speaker 2: What you what's your random talent that really doesn't make

1150
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:51,079
a difference at all? Mine is being good at golf

1151
00:56:51,159 --> 00:56:51,679
d FS.

1152
00:56:52,000 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: Wonderful?

1153
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 2: All right, thank you very much?

1154
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 1: Guys?

1155
00:56:56,519 --> 00:57:01,599
Speaker 2: Uh did I double down on Scotty after last Thursday's debacle?

1156
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:05,159
Jan and I were having a fantastic golf week. We

1157
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:08,880
knew after Thursday our plays were looking good, and so

1158
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,199
we did. We had a huge one. We cast a

1159
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:14,840
four percent on live three percent and then a three

1160
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:17,199
per Yeah, we had a great golf week last week.

1161
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,920
So it was one of those where everything was looking good.

1162
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:22,800
There was no reason to push it, and I missed

1163
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,320
out noodles. I should have. If I would have doubled

1164
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:27,440
down every single day, that would have been an easy cash.

1165
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,480
So I left money on the table. But we are

1166
00:57:29,719 --> 00:57:32,679
never going to complain about a winning week in a

1167
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:34,960
certain sport. So we'll have We'll have a bunch of

1168
00:57:35,039 --> 00:57:38,239
plays this week, including a four percent live play, which

1169
00:57:38,239 --> 00:57:39,920
if you played it last week, you know exactly what

1170
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:42,239
we're playing again this week. So all right, that's gonna

1171
00:57:42,239 --> 00:57:46,039
do it for us. Great show. Rex and Roy were

1172
00:57:46,119 --> 00:57:49,360
rooting on Finland. Rex and Roy leave your wager talk

1173
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:52,760
user name in the comments section below. Let's cash on.

1174
00:57:53,199 --> 00:57:58,440
Let's see, we got men's hockey, We've got lacrosse, We've

1175
00:57:58,519 --> 00:58:01,199
got NBA, we got colle basketball. I mean, there's no

1176
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,239
other show that's going to give you that plethora of

1177
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,639
sports to bet on. So Dan, thank you very much.

1178
00:58:06,079 --> 00:58:10,280
Good stuff, guys. Uh great hat and sunglasses changing. Yes, yes,

1179
00:58:10,719 --> 00:58:14,320
my hair, my I'm working to get my hair in

1180
00:58:14,559 --> 00:58:17,159
top five. Top five.

1181
00:58:18,079 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 1: That's pretty that's that's pretty well. Yeah, Teddy's up there

1182
00:58:25,039 --> 00:58:30,440
because Teddy is always quaff good. Kelly, Well, that's unfair though,

1183
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:34,320
you know what I mean. She uses performance enhancers. She

1184
00:58:34,559 --> 00:58:36,800
she herself has said she puts extensions in the hair.

1185
00:58:37,079 --> 00:58:39,599
So does that really you know?

1186
00:58:39,639 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 2: All right, all right, yeah, we need the top five

1187
00:58:42,239 --> 00:58:47,199
power hairdoo ring. Marco is Marco number one, Marco's Marco's

1188
00:58:47,239 --> 00:58:49,679
pretty high up there. Steve Merrill sometimes he comes in.

1189
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:53,079
Speaker 1: With the AKA, don't call me Will Ferrell.

1190
00:58:53,559 --> 00:58:57,159
Speaker 2: He's got some usies. Jesse got a haircut just to

1191
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,400
cut out the gray hairs on the side of his

1192
00:59:00,519 --> 00:59:02,039
head because it was bothering.

1193
00:59:01,719 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: Him all gray by the end of this fricking year.

1194
00:59:07,599 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 2: Well, if Lacrosse doesn't hit and Finland doesn't hit, we're

1195
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:12,119
gonna add a couple more gray hairs today. But I

1196
00:59:12,159 --> 00:59:15,079
have faith. I have faith. Let's go, all right, guys,

1197
00:59:15,119 --> 00:59:16,719
thanks very much. We're gonna be back the same time,

1198
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:18,639
same place tomorrow. Good look on your bets. We'll see

1199
00:59:18,639 --> 00:59:20,039
everyone on Wednesday. Take care