Speaker 1: Elite eight. We've got some NBA, We've got Major League
Baseball underway, NHL playoffs right around the corner. Who knows,
maybe VR even has some like elusive tennis play for us.
We're gonna bring him in first, followed by Adam Trigger
from Full Court Press and Total Basis. You guys have
one job, and that is to get in the comments section,
ask questions. As soon as the questions die, I'm getting
out of here. It is Saturday, it is eighty degrees outside,
and we've got seven hours until tip off. VR, welcome in.
Looks beautiful there in Las Vegas. I know it was
beautiful when I was there last week. Shout out to you.
I wish I would have listened to you on Iowa
and Nebraska's my best bet on Thursday. That was rough
Iowa State last night. You think you were on Tennessee.
It's just been one of those March madnesses that have
not been great for me. But I do want to
talk about this Elite eight and kind of you get
some of your thoughts on a couple of these matchups.
We've got two today and two tomorrow, but there will
be no show tomorrow, so I want to get into
those Now, have you seen anything since those lines populated
overnight on the Odds logic screen come across your screen?
Speaker 2: No, I mean nothing legit like nothing, no significant moves
to speak of. Really, like you saw a little half
point movement like Illinois opened six and a half goes
to seven. Little move like that, but no like significant
move except for a total. The only move that I
could say this is a syndicate position is the under
in Iowa and Illinois.
Speaker 3: They're they're steaming that one under.
Speaker 2: That's a legit position, and it's opposite the public, which
is betting both of today's games over no surprise, they're
betting Arizona over. I mean, they've been bett in Arizona
over every game and it's turned out well for them.
But they're also betting this Iowa Illinois over as well,
and that one's getting sharp money on the under, unlike
the Purdue Arizona where I haven't seen any sharp money
on the over. But the lines being pushed up by
the public money pushing in. It's like one sided over
money and the books aren't wasting any time moving that
Arizona total upwards. After what we've seen with them putting
up all those points, so again no surprise there, and
the same with the sides Perdue Arizona.
Speaker 3: Not much movement.
Speaker 2: I mean it's either six or five and a half. Again,
you could look at it and say some sharp money
was taken at plus six on Purdue, but they laid
the four at the opener on Arizona. And it goes
to show you just how tight these lines truly are.
Just look at yesterday's games. I mean, Alabama was ten,
they lose by thirteen. The Duke game was six, they
win by five. Like, lines are really really tight, So
it's no surprise to see sharp better on opposite sides
at different numbers. You're not really seeing opposite at the
same numbers, but you are seeing a difference of opinion
once the line moves, and again you know that that's
what should happen. I'm coming off of split myself real quickly.
I had two games that warranted a five percent was
Tennessee and Alabama. I thought both weren't getting enough points,
so I made Alabama the five. I made Tennessee a four,
and then threw a one percent money line on Tennessee.
So it turned out well, ended up splitting, But yeah,
it was a split today.
Speaker 3: I don't have really nothing strong yet in these games.
I have a lean. I like tomorrow's games a lot
more real.
Speaker 2: Quickly, we'll look at those since you asked about them.
As far as the Duke game, the only thing I've
seen is under. When the line first opened, it opened
one thirty four and a half got steamed under. But
since then you're starting to see the overcome back. And
again most of the first moves are off power ratings,
and then the matchup starts getting a handicapped and opinions
start to change. And you kind of saw this with
the Duke. It opened five, went to four and a half,
then right back to five. As soon as you know
a little more handicap, it was done. Michigan Tennessee, this
one moved as well. Money came in as soon as
it opened on the Tennessee side. Again, they look good
coming off of their w but once it dropped right
back with Michigan, and that's why they're sitting at seven
and a half. So you're getting favorite money in that game. Tomorrow,
I expect that the public to be on Michigan. I
think they'll they'll tease Michigan the money line parlay Michigan.
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be on Connecticut.
Speaker 2: They don't believe in Duke, so I do think if
you like Duke, you'll probably be able to get four
and a half.
Speaker 3: So it should get back to four and a half there.
Speaker 2: If you like Connecticut, probably want to grab the five
five and a half's are out there now as well.
Speaker 3: That's for tomorrow.
Speaker 2: But again today they're betting both over at least the
betting public wise, guys are on the under in Illinois
and Iowa. And yeah, it's still early. Most of the
money will be bet over the next couple hours and
that's where we'll see if these lines move. Kind Of
like I talked about yesterday, the money wasn't coming in
until day of the game. They're not betting like three
four days in advance. When you're talking about the lines
are up for five or six days. They're not locking
it up five days in advance. And that's why you
saw that flood of money push some of those lines yesterday.
It'll do the same today. But again, the public's head
me on the overs and they are betting Arizona and
they are betting Illinois, so they like the favorite and
overs today.
Speaker 1: All right, I want to kind of talk a couple
of things today. You have the steam room right after
this and you'll go for everything with your clients. It
is for subscribers only today, so if you are a
premium subscriber of VRS, that is where you're going to
get the most knowledge. It is great, But I do
want to kind of give our last call guys a
little bit of a preview. One of the things that
I love that you did on bet on It this
year was you talked power rating. So the last eight
teams remaining, I kind of want to hear what you
have to say from a power ratings perspective. Give me
a preview of kind of what guys are gonna one
on the team. Just give me your top three right now?
Who are your top three power rated teams?
Speaker 3: Duke is still number one. Nothing has changed.
Speaker 2: Hell, nothing has changed for Duke as far as the
number one team. Again, their strength of schedule is the
only negative, but they're thirty and two record offsets that again,
you can only play who's in front of you, and
that's what Duke did. Behind them is Arizona, No doubt.
They are the one team I'm afraid of the team
I fear most that could give Duke the most problems
is Arizona. So hopefully Purdue knocks them out because I'll
tell you what Perdue is a future that I'm have
a ticket on that I like. They're that team that's
being overlooked, but they're that team that's left right now
that's more balanced than anyone else. I'll tell you that
they're about top ten to fifteen off, top ten to
fifteen defense, and they had like the sixth or seventh
toughest strength of schedule as well. They're just not a
sexy team. That's why they continue to be overlooked. I
have them neck and neck with Michigan, and they're right
there now that the Houston's out, I know Michigan's looked good,
and a lot are moving Michigan up because I can
tell by the line. Michigan's power ratings have been adjusted
more than any other team over the last ten days
just based on what the line was versus Alabama and
what the line is against Tennessee.
Speaker 3: Is it warranted? I'm not too sure.
Speaker 2: Like I said, I put Purdue right there neck and
neck with them, followed by Illinois. I was going to
test Illinois because most of the don't think I was legit.
Speaker 3: But I'll tell you what I had.
Speaker 2: I was the twenty fourth best team in the country
coming into this tournament.
Speaker 3: So even though the AP.
Speaker 2: Didn't have them ranked, I did have them in my
top twenty four, top twenty five. So it's gonna be
a tough game against Illinois. If Illinois beats Iowa, then
they're they're five. They're dangerous after that. But I have it,
Duke Arizona. I'm gonna have to give Purdue. I know
people are gonna tell me I'm crazy, but I'm gonna
have to give Purdue the nod right now over Michigan.
Put them neck to neck Michigan, and then I'll put
Illinois behind that.
Speaker 3: So those are the five right there, viare.
Speaker 1: Let's take a couple of questions from the chat. Craig
wants to know, do you feel the Arizona plus two
fifty to win the whole thing is worth the wager? Now?
I know you want them to get knocked out for
your wager, but I would like to do a little
handicapping and a little basic math here, because John Murray
and I got an argument two years ago when He's like,
we're just gonna roll the money line over on Yukon, right,
we win the whole thing last year, it would not
have worked with me with Florida either. There was more
money to have bet the future bet so plus two
point fifty. So Arizona has to beat Tennessee. Then they
would have to beat Michigan or essentially the winner of
the Michigan Tennessee game Tennessee.
Speaker 3: Game, they play the winner of Michigan Tennessee and.
Speaker 1: Then So that's my point. By the time you roll
it over, even though they might, there'll be a small
favorite probably in Michigan, right minus one, minus one.
Speaker 2: And a half maybe, yeah, exactly right there, right there,
that's kind of what I'm thinking.
Speaker 1: But you roll those two money lines over again, I
don't have a parlay calculator in front of me, but
it's going to be right around that plus two to
fifty mark. They would be an underdog too, Duke in
the National Championship game, albeit a small one. It makes
more sense from a handicapping perspective, correct from a mathematical
perspective as well, to roll those three money lines.
Speaker 3: Over because they're not that high yet.
Speaker 2: Where where Arizona sits right now, you're better off rolling
it over betting them today on the money line, hoping
that they play Michigan because that's where you'll get a
better price, because against Tennessee they'll be, you know, heavily
face a favor and then again there'll be a slight
underdog if it's Duke, if it's you know, Connecticut or
someone else, there'll be a favorite, but they won't be
a huge favorite. And again, unless it's like Connecticut gets
in there, they won't be a big favorite because even
against Tennessee right.
Speaker 3: Now, a true line, I only make.
Speaker 2: Arizona about a three point favorite over Tennessee three three
and a half max. So I would definitely do it
that way, and I think it's a decent bet. Again,
I keep it real. When the tournament started, I thought
there was value on Duke at the price, and I
thought there was value on Purdue at the price. But
over the last two weeks, I definitely think that Arizona
is the most dangerous team to my futures, and at
plus two fifty, I would roll that over. I don't
think it's a bad bet. Yeah, I like them as
a future. Again, I just I don't. I don't like
the plus two to fifty now because of what I have,
But if you don't have anything, that's the way to
do it.
Speaker 3: I would just roll Arizona over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got some splash contests that are still alive,
and I'm projecting it to be Duke Arizona in the final,
so that I have a team left over. We'll see
how that works out for me. There, vr you have
anything else you want to share with us before we
get you out.
Speaker 3: Here real real quick. It's gonna go off.
Speaker 2: At the at about at nine am twelve Eastern. I
have a play over at sports Memo. I said, I'm
only putting gold over there. Kel and I think I'm
seven to ozho to one my last dight. I think
I'm like ten oh to one the last eleven bets.
I'm trying to win my seventh in a row today.
It's a ufl. It goes off at the top of
the hour. I sort in multiple accounts. Makes sense to me.
The line's still avaiuable. I said, I gotta go try
to make it seven and roun. I'm gonna put that
over at Sports Memo instead of at wagers. So subcrivers
already got it, but that's avaluable at sports Memo only
seven dollars. Again, that goes off at twelve Eastern. My
Elit eight package will be up within the next sixty
minutes once I confirm that side in total that looking
at tomorrow, I should have a five percent as well.
In college basketball in the Elite eight for Sunday, UFC
card is up. Multiple four percents are in there, more
plays will be added, and the steam room is at
one pm Eastern. Join us and let's do some damage.
Good luck today, kel, Good luck to everyone.
Speaker 1: Thanks VR, I could really use it. I kind of
knew that Iowa State result before it even happened last
night after seeing that you were on Tennessee. Shout out
to you. Shout out to everybody that gets to join
you in the steam room today. Thanks for hanging out
with us. Oh, by the way, VR has a new X.
I retweeted it. It's Yanni the Greek underscore. You guys
can see it right there on the screen, so make
sure you guys head over there to give him a follow.
He puts a ton of great information on X as well.
Thank you, VR. We're going to bring in one of
the guys from Full Court Press. I found out this
morning that Robino was like still on vacation or something,
which I did not know, but we got Adam Trigger.
He's also doing total basis, So if you guys have
any baseball questions, we will take them at the bottom
of the hour. Next fifteen minutes or so is completely
dedicated to the Elite eight.
Speaker 3: Trigg.
Speaker 1: I just want to start with today's games right off
the top. Iowa Illinois situationally situational like perspective. Is Illinois
off that insane second half versus Houston. I mean, they
just smothered Houston offensively. That was a hard fought, nice
win by Brad Underwood in the li N Iowa though,
it's just they feel like they're having a good time, right.
I had Nebraska, I just one and a half, They're
up ten, We're cruising. Next thing I know, halftime, there's
Nebraska four players on the court. I'm screaming at Fred Hoiberg,
going what are you doing? I think they were down
one or two at the time, and I knew at
that moment in time that I had a losing wager
on my hand. But I say all of that to
say that Iowa is really just one of those teams.
I think they're having fun, think they're playing with house money.
They didn't expect to be here, and those kind of
teams can be a little scary in the tournament, especially
this late.
Speaker 4: I would agree with that. I think I was having
a great time. I mean, I think you could make
a case that they've played three of their best games
of the season in succession in this tournament. I mean,
if you if you go back to you know, even
like the beginning of February, they did not have a
great month to close out the regular season and they
you know, they kind of just bowed out of the
of the Big Ten tournament. So I don't think it's
a stretch to say that they are playing far and
away their best basketball. And I'll tell you what, they're
having a lot more fun than they did when they
played Illinois earlier this season and the entire team had
the flu. So go back to that game, and you know,
it wasn't a you had a seventy five to sixty
nine game in Carver, Hawkeye, but I'm pretty sure at
that point it was like a team wide flu that
I was battling for like a couple of weeks. I'm
going off of memory in terms of like who was in,
who was out. But if you go back to that
time period, that Illinois game was a part of three
consecutive losses for Iowa, and I know the Michigan, the
Minnesota game prior to the Illinois game, they certainly had
guys out, so I think they were still coming off
of the flu. And they actually lost to Minnesota, Iowa
Purdue in succession right there. So again like, yeah, I
think things are going better right now for Iowa than
they were. You know when these two teams met earlier
this year.
Speaker 1: Here's my thing, and I understand that now with nil
and the transfer portal, that teams no longer own each other, right,
Like I want to say, oh my gosh, Illinois has
just owned Iowa over the past three seasons against the spread, right,
Iowa just cannot seem to get But it's a completely
different team. It's now a completely different coach there with
Ben McCollums. So kind of just have to throw those
types of stats. But this year that was a bad game.
Knowing that there was some flu involved makes that one
make a little bit more sense. And someone who follows
basketball as deeply as you do. Knew that. I didn't
know that. I go on Ken Palm. It doesn't say
anybody had the flu It gives you the final results
and the stats of the game and how it played out.
So give me kind of your synopsis on what you
think this Big ten matchup in the Elite eight and
how it's going to go down.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so as far as the matchup is concerned, Like listen,
no one owns Ben McCollum at this point. If anything,
he owns you. I don't know that there's a guy
in college basketball right now making better adjustments, better game plans. Kelly.
The Florida game, I think he held them to sixty possessions.
I mean, to be able to do that on a
short turnaround. Remember that was round of thirty two. So
they're in the same These teams are in the same
boat that they were last weekend with the forty eight
hour prep and to hold Florida to like sixty possessions
and win that game it probably I mean, I don't
think anyone was not impressed with Iowa, But I just
don't think it was as big of a fluke as
like maybe people think because the game plan completely worked. Yes,
they were able to execute and get a good look
off at the end, but still I think I would
deserve more credit for that than they're getting. The interesting
thing here for me kel is Bennett Sturtz, one of
the probably the most impactful players in college basketball to
their team is only is only six for twenty eight
from three in the NCAA tournament, and it's like, you know,
imagine he's shot the ball better to this point. So again,
I really do like the Iowa side here. I think
they're getting too many points.
Speaker 1: All right, I would agree with you. You don't want
my opinion on college basketball right now. It's been rough.
I did Mad Dog Sports Radio this morning and I
just absolutely the guy I'm before me was like, I
love the blue bloods. I'm a Texas salam and I'm like,
of course the elite want the elite to keep eliting,
and I don't. I want these IOWA type teams. They
are the Cinderella this year. I want the have nots
for a really long time to finally be some half.
And I said, if you want blue bloods, just go
watch the women's tournament. That was my mic drop because
just lay thirty with Yukon or UCLA or Notre Dame
or whatever the other schools are that are left. That's
who the blue bloods are. Tennessee, on the other hand,
not a blue blood in women's tournament anymore. They mispast
some of it a lot. That being said, let's go
to the later game today, Trigg Purdue, This Perdue team.
I don't know what to make of this Purdue team.
They were really gritty, really really gritty there. Now they face,
excuse me, Arizona five and a half point underdogs here.
I keep waiting for Matt Painter to Matt Painter in March.
I know that sounds very lazy, and it's not meant
to be a lazy take, but I say that because
that's what we've seen recently. But the fact is, that's
all we've seen from Arizona forever. Since the last time
Arizona won a national championship, they've been an early exit
team here in the tournament. But I think that this
is an Arizona team that has a real shot here
to win the national championship.
Speaker 4: Oh, without a doubt. I mean that this is you know,
I know Jeannie was talking about power rankings and stuff.
If you were to power rate the teams, I mean,
you've got to like Arizona to be in there, you know,
at the end. But the thing is Kelly and what
I've really sort of noticed, you know, and started to
lean into over the course of this tournament. We just
talked about Iowa, Florida. You can look at you know,
there's just a yukon last night. It's a great example.
Is like matchups I think matter a lot more than
the power rating right now, now, you know, Now you
look at that Michigan Alabama game from yesterday. I didn't
think it was the worst matchup for Alabama, and they
kind of showed why in the early going, but Michigan
was able to wear them down. I think that's kind
of what you're looking at potentially here, because I don't
think this is a bad matchup for Purdue necessarily either.
You know, the last two rounds Kelly Perdue had to
go up against teams that were far more athletic Texas
and Miami, and they were also if we're just talking
about this from a betting standpoint, they were laying four
possessions against teams that were just more athletic than they
were and they probably should have paid for it in
that game against Texas. Very fortunate to get out of
that game with a win here, though, like Arizona is is,
I don't think they have quite the athleticism as a Texas.
You know, they're big. They're certainly gonna play like you know,
for example, they're not gonna give much up on the glass.
You know, Purdue is not gonna get second chance point
after second chance point in this one. But from like
a defensive standpoint, it's not the worst matchup for Purdue.
They're just gonna plant everyone in the paint. They may
dare Arizona to shoot threes. That might not be the
best idea because Arizona is, you know, relatively accurate from
three in terms of the percentage they shoot, but they
don't take a lot of them. So I think that's
a little bit deceiving. People are gonna look and say, well,
Arizona's a good three point shooting team, yeah, because they
don't take many, and when they do take them, they're
typically high percentage. Looks perdue though, you know, may force
them into more threes than they're comfortable comfortable taking. And
if they don't, and if they force the issue at
the rim, they might be able to get some stops,
so I don't dislike that matchup for Purdue. On the
other end, listen Perdue from an offensive standpoint, and I've
criticized this team plenty. You know, I've criticized Braden Smith
for the turnovers and kind of regressing a little bit.
There's still tenth nationally in field goal percentage and twelfth
nationally from three. You know, you get Fletcher Lawyer going
and he bombs four or five in pretty quickly. Suddenly
I think, you know, Purdue might be a tough out here.
So I understand the love for Arizona long term, especially
if they can get through this one. But this isn't
the worst matchup for the Wildcats. And you know, I
think Gianni said something about maybe you know, some sharp
money to the under here. Probably not the worst look
with Arizona maybe taking more threes than they want and
having a hard time getting near the rim. Certainly a
harder time, Kelly than the first three meetings where teams
were just putting Arizona at the free throw line. The
first three opponents in this tournament that Arizona face could
not defend them at all. I think they've lived at
the line pretty much the entire tournament so far. That's
not going to happen against Purdue doesn't foul like that.
So maybe an under.
Speaker 1: Here under interesting. I know you do have a five
percent up at wager talk right now for the Elite eight.
Do you have any hangover on Sports Memoir? I know
VR said he was going to head over there seven
dollars sports Memo, Marketplace Baseball play. Don't care what he
got going on.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll have at least so I've got two client
baseball plays locked in right now. At least one of
them will go over to Sports Memo. If someone asked
the right question, I may give one out on the show.
I see some folks asking in the chat, but I'm
not gonna get I'm gonna see what kind of games
they want to talk about. Maybe it'll come up, maybe
it doesn't. You know, I did throw the uh you know,
I throw the I threw the duke zip up on
really really to troll our pal Joey G's more than anything,
because I you know, I can't and I guess I'll
say a couple of words on that game real quick,
like I you know, I was on Yukon last night
after kind of just trashing them for weeks coming into
this tournament, and I think that illustrates my point perfectly
where this tournament is just it matchups matter so much.
Where it was like, you know, but coming into the
into the NCAA NCAA tournament, before we had a bracket, Kelly,
I didn't like this Yukon team at all. I think
I I think I even said Sienna would hang with them,
and you know what, they probably would have after seeing
that first first round performance against Duke. But Yukon got
you know, got pasted Furman, got a banged up u
c l A team without Tyler Bilodeo, and then got
the dream matchup last night against Michigan State. That was
just a great matchup for Yukon. And you know what,
even with that great matchup, they still needed big time
clutch free throws from Alex Caravan and Terris Reid, who's
not a good free throw shooter, to not blow an
eighteen point lead. If Caraban doesn't hit the front end
of that one and one, they probably lose. They probably lose.
At the end of that game. With Michigan State getting
the ball least and it was as good of a
matchup as Yukon could have asked for Duke. I know
they've kind well. I was gonna say, like, Duke's gotten
heat in this tournament. Obviously, they didn't come to play
against Sienna, and they almost had a disastrous start, you know,
disastrous exit. But they didn't didn't come into play in
the first didn't come to play in the first half.
Kelly against TCU came to play in the second half,
ran them out. Couldn't match Saint John's physicality last night
for long stretches, but when they did, they sort of
got got it done. Didn't get over the hump for
the spread, but they won the game, and they won
it by multiple possessions. I kind of think Duke destroys
Yukon here. My number doesn't agree with that. My number
shows a little bit of value on Yukon. But I'm
gonna hope that people maybe bet Yukon and take those
points over the next twenty four hours because I think
I might punch back there if if at the right price.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say this, I think Duke is vulnerable.
I think if we learned anything from any of these games,
I've watched all three duke games. It's the most duke
basketball I've watched all season long. Here's the reality. I
know VR has the number one, Ken Palm has Michigan
number one, Arizona two, Duke three, Illinois four. Right, everybody's
gonna have their different set of power ratings. I'm gonna
say this much. The chat was talking about futures bets,
and of course my page expired, all right, right now,
Arizona plus two to twenty five, Michigan plus two eighty five,
Duke three to one. Next up is Illinois plus six
seventy five. So just something to keep in mind that
everybody else's double digits. But just something to keep in
mind there, Arizona, Michigan, Duke. I mean, it's basically a
three horse race. It looks like they're But as far
as Duke goes, you mentioned that Ciena game. I took
Cenna in our Calcutta. We just needed to cover spread.
If they would have won outright, Holy sh that had
been great. They did not, obviously, but man, they looked
really good. And I think the way to get to
Duke is to play that low scoring game.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 1: They lose to North Carolina in the regular season in
a game in the high sixties. They almost lose to
CNA in a game in the high sixties last night.
Saint John's was a little bit of an anomaly there
because the game was played in the low eighties. But
if Connecticut wants to win this game, I absolutely think
it's going to be played in the high sixties. Dan Hurley,
we know, great ats coach. They cannot beat themselves. They've
got to stop with the turnovers and they have to
make their free throws. That is the only way they're
going to beat Duke outright, in my opinion. But again
I've been getting my ass kicks, so don't mind my
opinion on this one.
Speaker 4: You're not wrong though, You're not wrong about that. I
mean Duke's if you can make them uncomfortable, you can
make Boozer uncomfortable. It's what Sianna did, It's WHATCU did
for a half. And then Saint John's is as intense
physically on the defensive end as anyone. Then you can
beat them. But I guess my whole thing with Yukon
is they're gonna kind of you know, they'll deny transition.
But like Duke doesn't mind running some half court offense,
and I do think if you can, if Duken sort
of get in a half court game, that they'll eventually
run enough all you know, their offense will work. That's
the nice thing about Duke and why I almost think
at three to one, you know, against those other teams,
like I kind of think, if I had to pick
one of those three teams, I picked Duke to win
it all, just because I think over over forty minutes,
their offense is gonna work against just about anyone. But
they do have to toughen up cal because if they
that that is the thing with them. They've kind of
got punched in the mouth and got away with it
a couple of times. I don't know if Michigan punches
them in the mouth, I don't know if they get
away with it. So it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1: Now, that will be interesting to see. Let's talk about
Rick Barnes. The comment section was kind of rouse me
a little bit and fair enough. You know, we talk
about is March. We talked about early in March. Rick
Barnes got a nice win last night over Iowa State.
They absolutely dominated the glass and it was kind of
crazy because that's what I thought TJ's game plan was
gonna be I know, you're not bigger than Tennessee, but
it was like I would say, just was like letting
them get rebounds. It was like I joked about them
channeling their inner Angel Reese and I just meant like,
get your own knee bounds, like what are you doing?
It was awful. Yes, no one is correct. That's the
opposite of Kelly right now. It has been a basically
I joked on Mad Dog Radio that I must have
sold my soul inadvertently to the gambling gods on Thursday
to catch that BCU ticket, because it's been really, really
ugly ever since I get to the Westgate super Book
Friday morning. Santa Clara sets the tone for the day
and good thing. There was a lot of Margarita's at
the Windpool because I needed them, and I had a
nice blackjack run, but it sure didn't make up for
the atrocities on the hardwood trick. Let's talk about Rick
Barnes here in March and this very large Tennessee team
that he has. Do you think that they have a
shot here against this Michigan team that, albeit Alabama looked
great in that first half I didn't watch much of
the second half. I had on the split screen, but
I was focusing on the Iowa State game. They just
stifled Alabama in the second half, and that's the way
to beat Alabama. That's not the way to beat Tennessee.
Speaker 3: Though.
Speaker 1: Tennessee is not trying to run and gun with you.
They're gonna beat you in the paint. They're gonna beat you.
They had four dunks against Iowa. Was staying I'm like,
how do you have these wide open dunks? Like I
was just absolutely floored at multiple times last night.
Speaker 4: Yeah, listen like Tennessee. The interesting thing about this matchup
is they're not. I don't think they're at a size
slash physicality disadvantage against Michigan, which most teams are. I mean,
Iowa State really struggled with tennis Sees, just size more
so than I thought they would. I did like Tennessee
in that game. I didn't play it on full court press.
Earlier in the week. I said, if you like Tennessee
to take the four and a half, I didn't think
Josh Jefferson was going to play. He didn't. It proved
to be an issue. But I will again, this is
another thing like Tennessee was not a team I was
very high on for long stretches in the season. Was
very vocal about that on my show with Rob Bino
in Full Court Press. And suddenly they're hearing the Elite eight.
And why is that, Kelly? Because this tournament oftentimes is
more about matchups than it is about who the necessarily
the best team is. It's almost why I kind of
think Duke and Michigan end up playing in the National
Championship game because they're the most sort of matchup proof teams.
In my opinion, I feel like they have an answer
to just about everything, and that's why it almost feels
safest pitting those two teams against each other. But of
course Tennessee has a chance here because of their size,
and if you know, obviously, I don't think you can
say that they're gonna get beat on the glass at
this point, after the generational performance that they turned in
last night rebounding the basketball. But the same thing with Tennessee.
The issue for me with them, even with them playing better,
is that after gilepsy and after a men, you know,
they don't have as much shot making as you would like,
and maybe not enough to beat a team like Michigan,
who we saw in a little bit of a challenging
matchup yesterday with Alabama in the first tap, and yet
Michigan still found a way over the course of twenty
minutes to completely blow that game open and win. So see,
like Nolan in the in the chat, he goes he's
shit on Yukon leading up to the tourney. Yeah, because
here's the thing. I was just kind of profiling the
team in general. But Yukon has drawn just insanely favorable
matchup after favorable matchup, So that's like what you have
to I think this is a really interesting point in
terms of handicapping the games. So Kelly, I'm just gonna
make this point to you. Okay, I show number value
on all four underdogs, all four underdocks. My number shows
value on Perdue, Iowa, Yukon, Tennessee, but my handicap does
not line up with all four underdocks. So you almost
have to ask yourself. And this is why betting the
Elite eight is challenging. You've got a number, you have
the matchup, and then you have to ask yourself, do
I want to is it good enough to pay said
tax right here?
Speaker 3: Or not.
Speaker 4: And then in all of this is factoring in kind
of what he's saying, Well, yeah, you didn't like Yukon, No,
I didn't really like Yukon as an overvalued Biggie's favorite.
Or against Saint John's a team that I think they'd
match up poorly with. But the way it's worked out,
Yukon's only had to play three of the teams in
this tournament and they've been decent matchups. So does that
come to a head tomorrow against Duke I kind of
think it does. Do I want to lay five and
a half? I don't know because my number shows value
on Welcome to trying about the elite e that is
literally hoppen.
Speaker 1: I was just getting ready to say, like VR said
to start the show, there's very very few short people
are rushing to the window right now to get in
vets because there's not a ton of value there. There's
an argument situationally, there's an argument mathematically, but there's a
very small window of value in between those two. And
I agree with you. That's why I love these swash contests, Adam,
because like I'm over here going all right, Canton, I'm debating,
so I get through last night, I'm in. I have
two left. I get through last night, I'm gonna ask
who you think I should use. So I did Field
of eight. Your buddy's over there. They had a ten
thousand dollars guaranteed for ten bucks, and I was like,
you know what, there was only three hundred people in it.
They weren't anywhere close to even filling. It didn't end
up filling, so there was I think a thousand dollars overlay.
But I was like, all right, let me get in
while I can. So I get in, I buy one
entry for ten bucks, and I'm like, all right, just
for fun, I'm gonna be out the first day, I
take Iowa, Illinois Advance, I take Duke Michigan. Yesterday, I
think I've gotta take for the Elite eight Arizona, Yukon.
I've already taken the other two. But then that leaves
me with not a lot for day nine. That's the problem, right,
I want to save Arizona for the National Championship. If
that means I've got to either take I've gotta take
Tennessee and Yukon. That's my only option. I gotta have
two outright underdog winners. So I can save Arizona for
the national championship. And that's where those things get a
little spicy in mine. I have taken Louisville, Utah State, Nebraska,
Saint John's for Duke Duke. I did Michigan, Illinois for
the Elite eight, which will leave me with Arizona Yukon
for the final four. So I need Yukon two beat
Duke and then I can use Arizona for national championship.
Oh it's racking my brain. But again, I got plenty
of action because that's two hundred and fify thousand dollars yarantee,
not on a twenty five dollars entry. I'm in. I
bought ten of them.
Speaker 4: But you get the idea, I'm still alive in I
think with a couple of my high school buddies in
the UH or Cianna buddy, sorry wow, in the in
the in the vs. In one, and the thing is
like you realize, UH survivors really challenged, Like Basketball survivor,
NCAA tournament survivor is so difficult. Like we're at this
point where it's like you get to this, if you
get this far, you think, oh, I'm still in it.
In the Elite eight, you you almost need to run
the table from here on out to win it, Like
you pretty much need seven, seven or eight outcomes for
this point to go your way to win survivor. So
like we're we're in the same boat where it's like
I think we're gonna need Iowa like so, and that's
the other thing where I kind of like we're talking
about and it's like, well, if if we need Iowa
to win or we're a limit needed, well we should
just use them because we still have them available. Right.
So it's like you wouldn't want to create a scenario
where you need two events. If something's gonna happen that's
gonna knock you out. It's almost like just use that
and then don't put yourself in a you know, in
a position, because otherwise the only way you're gonna cash
Kelly is if no one wins. That's what someone is
probably gonna be.
Speaker 1: That's the hardest part, right is I'm hoping I think
in this one, I'm thinking what I have to do
is hope that nobody like that people already used Illinois
or Michigan, because I guarantee people are gonna use Duke
and you kind of upsets or Purdue upsets, right, because
I'm saving the other two. And then it's basically everybody's
at like a stalemate because they have nobody left. And
then we split the two hundred and two thousand. I
think that's the only I think that's probably what I'm
going to be actually rooting for. Uh in the ten
thousand dollars one that the field of sixty eight guys
set up, there's only seventy seven of us left, I think.
And it doesn't power rate you based on like it
tells you everybody's availability, right, and what people have left
and what you think they're going to pick and so forth.
One hundred and eighty one got eliminated last night with
Iowa State, ninety nine more with Michigan State. But a
lot of people were trying to take shots at Alabama
and Saint John's and I didn't want to do that
because the name of the game is survive in advance
whoever can go the longest. But if you don't have
teams left available, guess what happens?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, can I ask you a question? Can I
ask you a question? So we can make this like
kind of like more of it, like an actionable, like,
I guess close it out with something actionable. If you
are in like a pool that let's say you just
referenced one that only has like seventy seven left, do
you think it's possible that that ends with no one
having the champ left where you could be chopping in
a few ways. I think that's what happened last year
if I remember correctly, there was a child no the
winners last year, because I know Aaron Kidd won it,
CT won at least like a couple of them. They
all they all had Florida. Okay, they all had Florida.
Speaker 1: Right, So I mapped mine out to have Florida to
win the whole thing. But I was out of teams
in the Elite eight and had to use Florida. Does
that make sense? Like?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: Like, and then you're hoping that everybody else loses too, chop.
I mean you've got to map it out. Yeah. Uh,
he said, there's a huge two.
Speaker 4: Yeah. But but last year's was very chalky with with the
final four eight.
Speaker 1: Dollars on a twenty five dollars entries not so.
Speaker 4: Bad, No, No, for sure, I think that might have
been one hundred dollars Entry that he chaoon but still
but still like if you but this year, there's like
last year, like everyone's sort of path panned out. Last
year Duke was in the final four Houston, Florida. I mean,
if you get like let's say you get in I
won the Final four, or or you get like you know,
then I guess, like I theoretically, I think it's a
good conversation.
Speaker 1: Entries and they mapped it out really well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a good conversation though, because like
people may just be like, like we're like, well, we
got to use Iowa because we won't have a champ
But it's like if we don't, we can still get
to the final. We just wouldn't have a team. But
I guess the way I'm looking at it is just
is someone gonna have it probably right, Well, that's.
Speaker 1: That's why I have to take in the field of
sixty eight one for ten dollars. Who cares. I'm gonna
take both underdogs because I want to take a shot
at it to be one of the only people left
right now. If Purdue beats Arizona, I'll still have Purdue left.
They're not going to in my opinion, I think Arizona
is the best team. But because I've already used Duke
in Michigan yesterday and I went to Illinois the day before,
I kind of screwed myself a little bit there. It
is what it is, But we'll see kind of how
that one ends up playing out. I just need one
of those other teams. I need both of those other teams, upset.
Let's be wrong, and this one I have Michigan and
Illinois at least that time. This the the one that
I put on trick. I was smarter about it because
I had mapped it out right throughout the whole tournament,
with the field of sixty eight being double picks every day.
I didn't map it out correctly. Yeah, it's you know,
double picks every day I had, so I had not
the I screwed up on the first day because again
it was ten minutes before tip I saw they had
this huge overlay. Again, they ended up still having a
thousand dollars overlay, and I put in Iowa Illinois really quickly,
and I screwed myself because now they play each other.
Does that make sense?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah, like it was the right result to have Iowa
and Illinois beating those other two teams. But I should
have picked from opposite sides of the bracket.
Speaker 4: Pretty much need an MIT degree to figure that college
troop survivor out. That's what I've realized.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's talk a little bit of baseball.
Nine minutes left of not even nine minutes left, I'm
gonna take a talk a little baseball trig. You have
two baseball plays up for sale today on wager Talk.
You will have one up on sports Memo.
Speaker 4: What else? So actually, no, the base the baseball is
gonna go on Sports Memo today. I I've got a
five percent college hoop play in one of the four
games that's up on the on wager Talk. I will
put any baseball that I don't give out in the
next twenty minutes here on sports Memo for seven dollars.
So that's what we'll do today.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, guys, any baseball questions, Adam, what do
you think of the Guardians team total? Do you do
a lot of team totals? What talk about total? Basis
what you guys are going over. I know we kind
of tweaked your guys' format a little bit this year.
I know a lot of the guys want to hear
about the big games early. You guys want to take
audience questions, you can have some of those under the
Radar games. I know you're gonna be doing a segment
on wager Talk called under the Radar as well, but
talk to me about, uh, what else you can expect
on those on that show as well as your standalone
video for wager Talking's YouTube channel.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Like, so we really didn't shorten the show. People
were like, oh, that the show is shorter. It's just
we're trying to fit it into the forty five minute
window for the overall programming schedule of wager Talk. But
we're going to accompany it with each doing fifteen minutes
on our own each day. So really, last year you
got an hour from the three of us. This year
you're getting forty five minutes of us together and then
basically forty five minutes of us on our own, and
all of that can be found on the wager talk
YouTube channel. Now, in the other I'm going to do
a segment called under the Radar. I did my first
one yesterday. I'm gonna have another one up today where
I'm going to focus on guys that I've watched a
ton of at TRIPAA that are now in the big leagues.
So yesterday we talked about Mike Burrows. He was the
pitcher for the Astros. Gave out a strikeout prop over
and it hit. So again, I'm gonna be looking at
stuff like that now for me, the things that I
bet MLB sides, Triple A sides, Korean Baseball sides. But
I gotta be honest, Kelly, like I am getting more
interested in the prop markets, I just am not confident
enough to like start firing those out as client plays yet.
Plus they move a little bit, so I'm gonna kind
of use that segment to test some stuff out. Like
I said, yesterday, we had to strike out play win,
and you know, I'll probably put something over there today.
As far as the question about the Guardians, I don't
really do team totals that often, but they do come
up on the Total Basis show Tokyo. Brandon is probably
the best guy to ask for specifically for team totals,
but I'll just I'll talk about the Guardians in general.
This isn't They're a big fade for me this year.
Yesterday on Total Basis, my best bet was the Mariners
on the money line. It was a little juwe stuff
in minus one sixty five, but it won. It was
part of the three team parlay that we hit yesterday
on the show. And you know the reason that I
disliked this Guardians team is because Past and Jose Ramirez,
I just don't see where all the offense is coming from.
The second thing, if you want to talk about trip La,
I don't think they have much in the pipeline, so
I don't know where the reinforcements are coming. And then
this is a team the last couple of years that
is heavily relied on pitching and bullpen and this is
this certainly is not the bullpen of two years ago,
and it's I don't even think it's the bullpen of
last year. So I'm pretty anti Guardians at the moment.
I don't know if you're going to get a ton
of value in the matchup tonight. Like I said yesterday,
you still had to lay minus one sixty five on
the Mariners. But what I will say is this, I
think the Mariners are the best team in the American League,
so I would only be looking to back them here.
So it would be Mariners are past, and listen, Brian
Wus He's way up there in terms of quality of
starting pitching, which the Mariners have a ton of. So yeah,
if you wanted to go Guardians under, I couldn't really
talk you off, but I think my stronger lead there
would just be the Mariners to win.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk another big game over here, and
I just lost it because I didn't start it. Any
thoughts on Braves at Kansas City.
Speaker 4: Well, I'll say, like again I talk about trying to
like you know, figure out props and rate the players correctly,
I would definitely look toward Bobby wit anything today. He
sort of seems to be like the what I would
consider the highest rated hitter of any player that's playing
today in any matchup. So again, don't like, I'm not
I'm not gonna like give out something specific there, but
I do I do like his matchup. Let's put it
that way in this game. But I'll say this the Royals, Like,
if we're talking about the these two teams in general,
I'm pretty anti Royals this year as well. I know
Sean is fired up about this because he's just counting
the wins in the chat for the Tigers, as I say, like,
you know, I dislike all these other Al Central teams,
but the Royals, like, this is a team that's pretty
hyped up this year, Kelly. And what I see is,
you know, not a great starting pitching staff and then
a bunch of guys that just played in the World
Baseball Classic, which is uh, I don't think is the
best omen coming into the season. We've already seen like
Paul Skeins get blown up. You know, some of the
other guys that played in the WBC. Aaron Judge had
four strikeouts on the opening day of the season. And
the Royals, like, I think their entire team was there.
I don't think anyone had more players playing the WBC
this year than Kansas City. So I'm not going to
totally come out here and sell the Royals like the
way I just did the Guardians, because there is talent
there and the guy just talked about Bobby Witz as
good as it gets. But early on, I'm definitely willing
to fade this team. And I think the Braves, because
they've been hit with the injury Bugg a little bit,
might be a tad underrated coming into the season. So
minus won forty five if I could scan over to
sort of like my number for this game, because I
didn't play this one yet, and I doubt I don't
think I probably will, like I think, I think minus
won forty five was a little steep for me, but
I really don't want the Royals, so again in this game,
I think i'll you know what, I will just throw
out Bobby Wit. I think he has a really good
game today. You want to go hits over hits, runs
RBIs total bases. I think something Bobby Wit correlated, especially
because listen, when you're bet hitting props, if you can
find a road team hitter, you know you're getting your
full complement of at bats. I don't really like to
bet hitters that are on the home team if I
can avoid it, because I do think you lose, you know,
losing that at bat in the bottom of the ninth inning.
It matters. In my opinion, it could mean the difference
between a fit that bat or not getting that fit
that bat. So the fact that wits on the road
and he rates out as highly as he does today,
I think Bobby whitprops are a good look.
Speaker 1: All right, Bobby witprops. It's not how I wanted to
spend my last last call before football season. But that
is where we're gonna end it. Shout out to almost
two thousand of you guys watching live. I know we
don't have games tipping off for over six hours.
Speaker 4: How much time do we have? Can I give? Can
I give a client play out? Quick? I got one,
I can close it out with. I want them to
get something. I actually bet so fine.
Speaker 1: I was gonna let you promote that you're gonna start
doing Total Bases on Saturday. So before you give out
your client play let everybody know what your plan is
or Saturdays going forward, because this is my last one
until August.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Saturday is going forward. It's gonna be a
more baseball specific show. Pretty much Total Bases two point
zero I suppose in this time slot. Sure, next week
we'll still you know, maybe we'll comment on the final four,
but you know, Total Basis is pretty much going to
sit in this spot going forward on Saturday, and then
of course you can catch my off Tokyo Brand and
Brian Leonard on a daily basis nine am Eastern on
the Wager Talk YouTube channel. I have a five percent
playing college basketball tonight. If that's what you're interested in.
That's up over on my page. And you know these
games are hard to handicap right now, but I'm having
a really good week in college hoops, so I'm kind
of just like leaning into that as we hit the
home stretch of the season, going for my fourth win
in a row. Bayou's joking, he says Triggs, begging to
give out a client play. It's only because I've got
another one to you know, I've got one to spare
here today, So I will. I will have a play
up on sports memo that's a baseball play, but I'm
gonna give you the one that goes first. So I
played the Rais minus one, zero four. It's a two
pm Eastern game, one of the first baseball games off
the board. And Kelly, I know you want to get
out of here, so I'll keep it quick. The Cardinals
are going to be bad this year. Now, I don't
think they're quite as bad as maybe they're being made
out to be by some people. But the reality is
they probably have a bottom five team in terms of
like talent, and it could get ugly for them. Now.
They came out Opening Day, they rattled off an eight
run inning to come back and beat the Rays win
nine to seven. And these two teams didn't play yesterday,
so now the Rays have kind of had a two
days to sit there think about that. It was a
pretty bad result for them in my opinion, and you've
got two young pitchers, Boyle McGreevy. It's a relatively even
game on paper. But the thing about the Rays, shout
out to my guy Sean and the chat, you know,
props to his organization, because that organization does as good
a job as anyone at making you look at a
roster on paper and being like, now, this team isn't
that good when really like they always find this collection
of players that wins in the margins, probably as good
as anyone in Major League Baseball. And so once again
I think people are a little bit down on the
Rays when they maybe necessarily shouldn't be. So you come
off the nine to seven loss an opening day, I
just don't think the race start zero to two against
this team. Pitching matchups relatively even, I would give the
raising edge in the bullpen and they're only minus one
oh four. But I just think the fact that they're
going to you know, they were right there to blow
I mean, they were up seven to one, somehow lost
nine to seven. I just don't think they're going to
let that happen today, and the cards might actually be bad.
So let's go raise minus one oh four. That's a
three percent play for me at wager Talk this afternoon.
Speaker 1: Okay, if you guys are still awake after that breakdown, No,
I'm just joking. I'd see the comments section giving me
a lot of grief. No, guys, it's just what out
side relief. Kelly's got some time off between now and August.
I love baseball season, love it, love it, love it. Trig,
thank you so much for hanging out solo today while
Rob Veno finishes up his Vegas trip at adam trigger
WT on socials. Make sure you guys give him a
follow again. Under the radar going to be every single day,
Trig promised me on the wager Talking YouTube channel. Total
basis five days a week at ten am Eastern Saturdays
eleven am Eastern. So make sure you guys tune right
in here on the wager Talk YouTube channel. If you
guys haven't already, please give us a thumbs up, give
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to hit that subscribe button so you never miss another
moment of wager Talk TV. On that note, I'm out.
I'll be back in July with some NFL and college
football season win totals. See you guys then,