Speaker 1: One outright winners. Tails from the Courtesy Tent, DraftKings, Darling's
Top twenty, top forty finishes, and more. It is the
twenty twenty six Phoenix Open. We all know it is
the waste management, but it is the it's the official
Phoenix Open. Yon. Can you say Phoenix Open or does
it just start to come out waste management? For me?
I still can't say Phoenix Open. Clean.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's why Smontage one.
Speaker 1: It's just thought it's gonna be the waste management. So,
uh yeah, we got a lot to break down. My opinion,
this is when the golf season really starts. We're not
rotating between courses. Super Bowl week it's an absolute blast.
So we're gonna start off with tails from the Courtesy Tent.
These are the worst shots, worst moments of the week
last week, and we gotta go with Brooks Koepka. Brooks Kopka. Uh,
the putter has been his achilles heel yon for a while,
and boy did it rear its ugly head. He had
about three and a half feet for par and unfortunately
he hit it ten feet and then he misses his
bogey button coming back. So solid double bogie for Brooks
and you look at his statsy on and we're laughing
at this particular hole. But this has been this has
been the problem spot for him driving. His fine approach
is fine, he cannot get the putter going, So something
to keep your eye on with Brooks cover and then
mister Brennan gets disqualified uses an illegal yardage book. Actually
because I'm a lunatic, I did a deep dive and
it turns out he was given the yardage book and
then he drew in it, which apparently you can't do.
You can't draw in your own yardage book. So he
got disqualified. What a bummer fly your caddy and then
everybody out there and you draw in a book and
you get disqualified. So Brooks Captain Michael Brennan tails from
the courtesy Tim, You're gonna go over the overachiever, and
I don't think the segment gets much easier for you, John,
who was the overachiever last week.
Speaker 2: Well last week was entirely the Justin Rose show, wasn't it.
I don't think anyone was really doubting that he's not
competitive on the PGA Tour still, but to win a
competitive event essentially in the first two rounds at his
age is absolutely ridiculous, Like he destroyed a tough course
three rounds in a row. I would say he's probably
locked in his Ryder Cup spot off that performance, and
I think that's sort of valid. I mean, that's one
of the best performances I've seen in years from someone
who wasn't named Scotty or Rory. We sort of came
into this year with fleetwould be and in mind with
the ultra consistent top twenty, top forty machine. I've kind
of got one eye on Rose Now he looks like
he might have quite a serious year ahead of him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was quite the quite the performance. We don't
expect that every single week, but yeah, Fleetwood is kind
of not kind of he has absolutely sputtered out of
the gate, and Justin Rose just looks incredible. So pretty
easy car here on The over Achiever, We're going to
go to skill school talk a couple guys that have
improved their game greatly over the last year or so. So,
who are a couple of guys that you've got your
eye on? Said, Okay, these guy's showing us a little something.
Speaker 2: We've spoken about this a couple of times, not on
this show, but Michael fort Bjornson needs to be spoken about.
This was always sort of expected. The growth in his
game was sort of always coming, with him only being
twenty four and the college pedigree that he had, and
there was always whispers of him when he was in college.
But to improve every aspect of his game as quickly
as he has is really noteworthy. I said it last
week and I'm going to say it again. This guy
is going to win majors, and now I'm starting to
think that's going to come sooner rather than later. I
now just view him as a top thirty player on
the tour, like that's the level he's reaching. And how
much he's improved one to follow with interest and investment
moving forward.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's just a tank man, I mean he is.
We were watching Got Her Up last night. Is another guy.
These guys big man, they are so strong. So yeah,
Thor Bernson finally, finally, he missed a cut the first week,
but boy, he showed his showed his potential on that week.
So all right, one and done. I had Jason Day
and Jason Day was looking great and then he just god,
he was terrible and back nine on Sunday, and it
really kind of crushed, So I'll let you go first.
Who are you going with for one and done this week?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is my first power move of one and done.
I'm taking Cameron Young after hitting seawoo second last week,
I've got my tail up a bit. I'm sort of
coming for heads now. Come Young as a top ten machine.
His last seven events one win, finishes, A four, fifth, ninth, eleventh,
and twenty second. He has all the tools, great teater,
green player, great off the tee, great patsa. He has
everything I want this week, and he is the only
guy I'm looking at that can go to to toe
with Scotty this week.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Maverick McNeely. I was worried about
him last week and he made me eat my word.
So I've come full circle on him. Tenth place finish
last week, and he absolutely loves this place. Ninth and
sixth the last two years. We all know about his putting.
His putting can just be lights out last twelve months
plus zero point thirty nine, but he has the potential to.
I mean I've seen him go six month stretches where
it's almost a full stroke gained. And yeah, if you're
gonna compete with Scotty. You gotta have just a lights
out putting week. So I'm with you on Cameron Young.
I was debating between him, but I'll go with Maverick
McNeely on a course and format that he likes. Speing
of courses, let's break down TPC Scottsdale. This is a
course that is absolutely built for very aggressive start with
the weather. They haven't got much rain and it doesn't
look like it's gonna rain at all this week, so
you're gonna get pretty firm fairways, firm greens, and this
is a little bit at altitude, so drives are gonna
be longer than usual, and it just sets up for
a big time birdie fest. In the past we've seen
it be like close to freezing for the early tea
times and then eighty ninety degrees Fahnheit in the afternoon.
It doesn't look like we're gonna get that, so you're
gonna get perfect conditions. You've got reachable par fives, you've
got reachable par fours on this one. I think we
may see a minus twenty three, minus twenty five. This
just sets up really good. There's not a whole lot
of difficulty. You do have to be accurate. There are
some there are some bushes and some trees that you
can put the ball in off the off the fairway.
But if you're hitting fairways, it's a green light special
here on this one. So you're gonna have to go
low to compete with some of these guys. And of
course we have the par three sixteenth, just an incredible hole,
the best hole in all of golf, complete anarchy. If
you're watching the show, surely you know about the sixteen
livel but if you haven't, if you haven't watched the
sixteenth hole, it's absolutely mass chaos. Especially on Saturday. The
crowd goes nuts. They literally build a stadium around a
hole once a year. It's absolutely wild. So do you
have anything else to add to TPC Scottsdale.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean very unique course. Like you say, the
sixteenth and then the par four seventeenth, those back to
back holes are incredible. Like this is by far the
best viewing experience we've had on the PGA Tour so far.
This golf course allows players of all styles to have
a go and compete. It's quite balanced. If you're elite
at something, you can have a go. My starting point
was off the tee. It's one of the most driver
heavy courses on tour, like you're saying, with the firmness
and then the altitude, it really contributes to favoring guys
who are great with the big dog narrow fairways. You
cannot be missing the huge mess here. You will get punished.
You've got to make your puts.
Speaker 1: Two.
Speaker 2: So teeter Green off the tea and putting was my
main focus this week. But like you say, this is
the best four days of the PGA Tour so far,
so I'm really looking forward to this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, outside of the majors, it's my favorite one to
watch for sure. I think I could make the case
that that sixteen seventeen eighteen is arguably one of the
best three hole finishes. Yeah, in all of golf. It's
a lot, a lot of fun here. So all right,
let's talk about total strokes game. Do the screen share
here and there really isn't that much surprise up top
here we got Scottie Scheffler. Obviously we're looking at the
last twelve months, I mean plus three point three one
last twelve months, second place to spawn at plus one
point five to five. I mean, they're just laughable at
this point. So I gotta tell you after Scheffler, I
got questions here. Spawn has not looked great, Griffin Hey, uh,
Shoffley Eh, Hovelin, Hey, Matthew Fitzpatrick sixty third and his
only BG Sam Burns. These guys are gonna have to
push Scotti. But these total strokes gained over the last
twelve months, I don't know, Yan, who are we trusting
out of this group Besides Sheffler.
Speaker 2: I'm totally with you. I've got Scotty at the top,
and then I've got those next six seven names on
no when near the top of my list at all.
Speaker 1: You gotta talk Seawou Kim. I mean literally, you gotta
you gotta be talking Sea Wou, Cameron Young, even matsia Seo.
Speaker 2: And come young a like my second and third.
Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, Matsiyama's been pretty good. Yeah you got
Then you got Jordan Speith, who you know, coming off
of injuries, but he loves playing here. So this total
st rokes gain chart is pretty interesting this week. It's
kind of one of those, you know, Scottie or the
Field type of things. But some of these guys that
have been good over the last twelve months have not
shown us very much yet this season. So all right,
let's do players that can trip you up. This is
where I take three players that are fairly high priced
and I say, be a little bit careful about these guys.
And I'm gonna start with Xander Schaffley. I mean, he
had the record going of most cuts made and then
he didn't even make the cut last week. So long
Layoff had the birth of his child, he openly talked
about not playing much as playing some practice round with friends.
It really showed his driving accuracy was an abomination last week.
It was really terrible. And Yohan, you have, like you said,
you have to give yourself birdie opportunities. You can't do
it if you're having to pitch out from behind a tree,
a bush, cactus, sand whatever. So this is a birdie fest,
and I don't like his chances this week. You gotta
be you gotta be on your game on these birdie fests.
You can't just you know, par your way to him
make the cut. It's not gonna happen this week. So
Shaffley's going to be a complete fade. Ben Griffin, listen,
he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been good enough
for the price that they're putting him at. And I
get it, you gotta have somebody second, third, fourth, fifth price.
But he's opened the season with finishes of nineteenth and
twenty fourth, losing minus zero point three to nine strokes
on approach, struggling with the putter, and again the accuracy
is very very critical here, finishes of thirty six and
twenty eighth here the last two years. I think he's
being way over priced as a top six guy. Feels
way too aggressive for me. Again, who am I putting
in there above him? I don't know, but I'm just
not going to be betting on Ben Griffin this week. And
then we talked about brooks Keepka. I think he's going
to get a lot of attention this week from betters.
A multiple time winner here, but that feels like a
you know, lifetime ago. It's the putting minus two point
three seven strokes game. Putting the last twelve months, John,
that is absolutely terrible. I'm sorry. He was minus two
point three seven last week, minus zero point three to
eight last twelve months. So if you're not putting well
at this course, you're going to struggle to even make
the cut here. So Birdie, heavy course putter, Ice cold Brooks,
Koepka is going to be a complete fade. So Xander,
Schaffley Ben Griffin are three players that I think can
trip you up. All right, Joan, Let's go to head
to heads. This is for Jan and I each take
a head to head matchup. We talk about it on
what side we like. I'll let you go first. What
was the head to head matchup that you saw that
you liked.
Speaker 2: I am taking Come Young over Xander, like I said earlier,
Come Young. Just how's everything I want around here? Came
back after a seventh seven week break with a top
twenty second finish last week, which is pretty perfect return
off to seven weeks off, and you just have to
be fighting Xander the baby still didn't have any of
his class last week. And if he doesn't have his
class around here, how does he get to minus fifteen
and like a top twenty finish, I might just need
Came Young to make the cut here. Actually, but money,
Come Young the wrong guy's favorite here.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Chris got her Up and Colin
Morikawa and I'll happily take got her Up. Got Her
up has a win and an eighteenth place finish this season.
Mari Kawa a missed cut. Putting is still awful. We
watched him top one coming out of the bunker. The
guy just it's been a massive fall for grace from
this guy. I mean, he was firing caddies last year
and it just doesn't look like it's gotten better for him.
Neither one of them have good course history here, but
as far as current form goes, it's got her up
and it's not even close again. Calla Morikawa is another
one these bigger name guys. They're just not performing right
now on a weekend and week out basis. But Klin
Morikaw is definitely a fade. From my end, we moved
to top finishers. This is where we go over to
top tens, twenties, forties, whatever you want, but real quick, guys,
if you're watching, please hit the like button really helps
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days for the price of seven. All right, let's go
to the top finishers, you get two, I get two.
Who's your first top finisher that you like?
Speaker 2: I'm taking Chris got Her up top twenty at plus
one forty. It's hard to say after he was a
total spanner on PAGL last night, But this guy still
has my heart. I said last week there's not many
played many guys playing better golf than him right now
of a top twenty finished last week, I'm going back
to him. He has the exact profile I want around here,
elite off the tee good tea to green good, Pata,
ticks every single box, and I think the price is
just far too big. At plus one four two.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna plant my flag that sa Hith the gala
is bad. I don't want to say back because like
he was, was he here? Was he not here? But
he looked so much better this year than he did
last year. Last year it was like, oh do we
overestimate this guy? I love him. At top forty including
ties up minus one forty thirty, first, eighth and seventh.
The first three tournaments Theori's played in, he's made the
cut all four times he's played here three of those
top forty finishes, so I like what I've seen from
Saith the Gala. He's a great DraftKings play. I'll get
the Draftking doings a little bit later, but he was
a big time cash for us for DraftKings, so so
hit the Gala. I think you're if he keeps playing
this good. You only got a few tournaments left before
the books catch up to him. But I think he's
got good value his number right now. What's your second
top finish that you like.
Speaker 2: My second one is Pearson Coody top forty at minus
one thirty five, so this angle is free and oh.
In the three events this year, he's finished thirteenth, eighteenth,
and second. I think this course really suits him, another
profile where it just fits everything I want. He's big
off the tea, good tea to green. His putting is
probably average at best, but the way he's playing right now,
he probably gets away with it. And I feel like
ninety percent of what I say in golf is this
guy's twenty six. He's really improving. Take note, but seriously,
do take note, because these guys will make you bank
in the long term. I love these T forty markets.
You get such a big margin of error for guys
that I think are gonna actually compete outright and minus
one thirty five, top forty piercon Coody. It just fits
everything I want this week.
Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm gonna take a guy to finish
in the top twenty when his putting numbers are bad.
But I can't ignore with what the Woo Kim has
been doing. I mean, last thirty days, I had to
like triple check this minus zero point five to three
stroke skime putting. But his A tee to green and
approach has been so good. It's got him eleventh, sixth,
then runner up this season and he has three top
twenty three finishes here. I just need you to be
average with your putty, with your with your putting, Seawoo,
just average, Bring it up to average and you're gonna
be right there with Scheffler. So again, just give yourself
some chances to get birdies. And I can't ignore the
course history and how good he's playing minus one o
two on DK and that includes ties, So Seewoo Kim,
not many guys playing better than him right now, All right,
outright winner. We all know Scotty's going to be the
huge betting favorite, but I've got a little bit of
a long shot. Who did you settle on?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean obviously Scotty and Karma, the two guys
at the top of my ball, but there priced accordingly.
So I'm gonna give out a value play that I'm
gonna take myself as well, and that is Jake Nap
an eleventh and two starts this year, five top five
finishes in his last twenty five starts. A really good driver,
fantastic part. He's got distance, he's got accuracy, he's just
a guy heading in the right direction. Forty to one.
He's worth a sprinkle, and I will be doing so myself.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna believe this. Sometimes it's good when Yan
and I don't talk beforehand. Sometimes it's bad. I literally
have Jake Nap written down. Yeah, plus one point five
putting in two tournaments, and that again is what it's
gonna take. So, because I don't want to be too
vanilla here, I'll see if I can come down here
a little bit more. I mean jordan' Speith at fifty
five to one on a guy that just on, the
guy that just consistently finishes in the top ten. Here
his last three finishes. Yere a fourth, sixth, and sixth.
He's that kind of guy that will hit fifty foot
putts and just he just loves playing here. He embraces
the atmosphere about it. So I guess I'm looking at
somebody besides Jake Naples. Jordan's pethe of fifty five to one,
absolutely terrifying, Yan, So uh yeah, I feel like we
might need to be betting something besides not right winner
on Jake Nap. If you and I both like him,
we might need to look at some head to head
matchups and some top forties. Yeah yeah, DraftKings Darlings. We
had a nice cash in our lineup last week.
Speaker 2: Yan.
Speaker 1: It happened to me again where the one guy that
missed the cut was the most expensive guy. Thank you
very much, Ludwig Obert for the complete no show. Yan
even sent me a messages like logged in see oberart
plus five logout. It's just a disaster.
Speaker 2: But at.
Speaker 1: It's true there was no sweat about him missing the cut.
So what we do is we take a look at
some of these lower priced guys and if you if
you can't play dfs, these are long shots or guys
that you can take in head to head matchups. So
we've talked about John Perry and I think I'll go
back to him at sixty seven hundred. He's been one
of the most reliable value plays, made the cut in
all three events so far. Plus zero point four zero putting,
and he doesn't really have a weakness. He's not super
long off the tee accurate enough. But John Perry was
a really good DraftKings Darling Force a couple weeks ago,
so we'll go with him. S H. Kim at sixty
eight hundred. He continues to impress, really hot putter again
plus zero point seven zero stross gang putting. This tournament's
probably going to turn into a putting contest here. Early
season finishes of thirteenth and eighteenth those came on easier setups.
Last week it was sixty third, but that was a
much tougher setup. So I like when a guy can
go low on some of these easier courses. It's kind
of like the opposite of will Zalaturus, Like will Zalatauris
just doesn't do well on the minus twenties minus twenty
five tournaments, but you give him a strong, hard technical course,
he's going to be your guy. And then we'll close
out Draftking Dongings with Sam Stevens at seventy two hundred.
He's trending at the right time. Good course comfort made
three straight cuts with finishes of thirty, first, thirtieth, and sixth,
maybe cutting both of his previous tournaments here, driving approach
numbers excellent, setting up for some good scoring chances. So
John Perry shkm Sam at Stevens. I noticed a couple
people in our one and done league selected Sam Stevens
last week, so I'm not the only one that's noticed
he's been playing well. So those are good ways to
anchor your lineups. And if you get our seven Days
or if you go to the news page on wager Talk,
you'll see the full DraftKings lineup and Scotti Scheffler doesn't
appear in my lineup, John. They have priced him so
high that he's kind of unplayable. Last year, it was
just a rule you had to put Scottie Scheffler in there.
But you put Scheffler in your lineup, it eats up
so much and I get it. But Dootty Shuffler not
going to be peering in my lineup this week. So
all right, that's going to do it for us. Thanks
very much for watching the cut line. Yan, great work
last week you were two and zero in your picks.
Looking to continue that momentum next week. Jan and I's
picks are all included in that seven day package. You're
getting not one, but two handicappers for that price. Again,
leave a comment, hit the like button. Really appreciate you
guys watching It's waste management Phoenix open week. Baby, It's
super Bowl Week, huge, huge week, and I can't wait
till the crossboard parlay has come out. When it's like
Ramanjre rushing yards versus Stefan Diggs receiving yards, those are
a lot of fun. If we've seen him like those
will be included. Thanks very much, guys, Good luck on
your bets and we'll siero next week on the cut Line.
Take care