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Speaker 1: One outright winners. Tails from the Courtesy Tent, DraftKings, Darling's

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Top twenty, top forty finishes, and more. It is the

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twenty twenty six Phoenix Open. We all know it is

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the waste management, but it is the it's the official

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Phoenix Open. Yon. Can you say Phoenix Open or does

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it just start to come out waste management? For me?

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I still can't say Phoenix Open. Clean.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's why Smontage one.

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Speaker 1: It's just thought it's gonna be the waste management. So,

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uh yeah, we got a lot to break down. My opinion,

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this is when the golf season really starts. We're not

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rotating between courses. Super Bowl week it's an absolute blast.

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So we're gonna start off with tails from the Courtesy Tent.

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These are the worst shots, worst moments of the week

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last week, and we gotta go with Brooks Koepka. Brooks Kopka. Uh,

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the putter has been his achilles heel yon for a while,

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and boy did it rear its ugly head. He had

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about three and a half feet for par and unfortunately

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he hit it ten feet and then he misses his

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bogey button coming back. So solid double bogie for Brooks

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and you look at his statsy on and we're laughing

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at this particular hole. But this has been this has

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been the problem spot for him driving. His fine approach

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is fine, he cannot get the putter going, So something

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to keep your eye on with Brooks cover and then

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mister Brennan gets disqualified uses an illegal yardage book. Actually

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because I'm a lunatic, I did a deep dive and

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it turns out he was given the yardage book and

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then he drew in it, which apparently you can't do.

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You can't draw in your own yardage book. So he

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got disqualified. What a bummer fly your caddy and then

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everybody out there and you draw in a book and

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you get disqualified. So Brooks Captain Michael Brennan tails from

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the courtesy Tim, You're gonna go over the overachiever, and

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I don't think the segment gets much easier for you, John,

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who was the overachiever last week.

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Speaker 2: Well last week was entirely the Justin Rose show, wasn't it.

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I don't think anyone was really doubting that he's not

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competitive on the PGA Tour still, but to win a

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competitive event essentially in the first two rounds at his

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age is absolutely ridiculous, Like he destroyed a tough course

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three rounds in a row. I would say he's probably

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locked in his Ryder Cup spot off that performance, and

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I think that's sort of valid. I mean, that's one

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of the best performances I've seen in years from someone

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who wasn't named Scotty or Rory. We sort of came

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into this year with fleetwould be and in mind with

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the ultra consistent top twenty, top forty machine. I've kind

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of got one eye on Rose Now he looks like

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he might have quite a serious year ahead of him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was quite the quite the performance. We don't

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expect that every single week, but yeah, Fleetwood is kind

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of not kind of he has absolutely sputtered out of

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the gate, and Justin Rose just looks incredible. So pretty

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easy car here on The over Achiever, We're going to

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go to skill school talk a couple guys that have

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improved their game greatly over the last year or so. So,

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who are a couple of guys that you've got your

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eye on? Said, Okay, these guy's showing us a little something.

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Speaker 2: We've spoken about this a couple of times, not on

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this show, but Michael fort Bjornson needs to be spoken about.

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This was always sort of expected. The growth in his

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game was sort of always coming, with him only being

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twenty four and the college pedigree that he had, and

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there was always whispers of him when he was in college.

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But to improve every aspect of his game as quickly

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as he has is really noteworthy. I said it last

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week and I'm going to say it again. This guy

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is going to win majors, and now I'm starting to

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think that's going to come sooner rather than later. I

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now just view him as a top thirty player on

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the tour, like that's the level he's reaching. And how

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much he's improved one to follow with interest and investment

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moving forward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's just a tank man, I mean he is.

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We were watching Got Her Up last night. Is another guy.

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These guys big man, they are so strong. So yeah,

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Thor Bernson finally, finally, he missed a cut the first week,

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but boy, he showed his showed his potential on that week.

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So all right, one and done. I had Jason Day

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and Jason Day was looking great and then he just god,

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he was terrible and back nine on Sunday, and it

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really kind of crushed, So I'll let you go first.

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Who are you going with for one and done this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is my first power move of one and done.

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I'm taking Cameron Young after hitting seawoo second last week,

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I've got my tail up a bit. I'm sort of

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coming for heads now. Come Young as a top ten machine.

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His last seven events one win, finishes, A four, fifth, ninth, eleventh,

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and twenty second. He has all the tools, great teater,

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green player, great off the tee, great patsa. He has

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everything I want this week, and he is the only

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guy I'm looking at that can go to to toe

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with Scotty this week.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Maverick McNeely. I was worried about

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him last week and he made me eat my word.

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So I've come full circle on him. Tenth place finish

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last week, and he absolutely loves this place. Ninth and

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sixth the last two years. We all know about his putting.

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His putting can just be lights out last twelve months

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plus zero point thirty nine, but he has the potential to.

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I mean I've seen him go six month stretches where

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it's almost a full stroke gained. And yeah, if you're

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gonna compete with Scotty. You gotta have just a lights

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out putting week. So I'm with you on Cameron Young.

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I was debating between him, but I'll go with Maverick

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McNeely on a course and format that he likes. Speing

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of courses, let's break down TPC Scottsdale. This is a

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course that is absolutely built for very aggressive start with

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the weather. They haven't got much rain and it doesn't

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look like it's gonna rain at all this week, so

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you're gonna get pretty firm fairways, firm greens, and this

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is a little bit at altitude, so drives are gonna

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be longer than usual, and it just sets up for

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a big time birdie fest. In the past we've seen

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it be like close to freezing for the early tea

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times and then eighty ninety degrees Fahnheit in the afternoon.

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It doesn't look like we're gonna get that, so you're

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gonna get perfect conditions. You've got reachable par fives, you've

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got reachable par fours on this one. I think we

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may see a minus twenty three, minus twenty five. This

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just sets up really good. There's not a whole lot

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of difficulty. You do have to be accurate. There are

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some there are some bushes and some trees that you

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can put the ball in off the off the fairway.

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But if you're hitting fairways, it's a green light special

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here on this one. So you're gonna have to go

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low to compete with some of these guys. And of

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course we have the par three sixteenth, just an incredible hole,

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the best hole in all of golf, complete anarchy. If

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you're watching the show, surely you know about the sixteen

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livel but if you haven't, if you haven't watched the

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sixteenth hole, it's absolutely mass chaos. Especially on Saturday. The

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crowd goes nuts. They literally build a stadium around a

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hole once a year. It's absolutely wild. So do you

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have anything else to add to TPC Scottsdale.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean very unique course. Like you say, the

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sixteenth and then the par four seventeenth, those back to

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back holes are incredible. Like this is by far the

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best viewing experience we've had on the PGA Tour so far.

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This golf course allows players of all styles to have

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a go and compete. It's quite balanced. If you're elite

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at something, you can have a go. My starting point

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was off the tee. It's one of the most driver

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heavy courses on tour, like you're saying, with the firmness

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and then the altitude, it really contributes to favoring guys

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who are great with the big dog narrow fairways. You

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cannot be missing the huge mess here. You will get punished.

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You've got to make your puts.

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Speaker 1: Two.

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Speaker 2: So teeter Green off the tea and putting was my

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main focus this week. But like you say, this is

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the best four days of the PGA Tour so far,

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so I'm really looking forward to this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, outside of the majors, it's my favorite one to

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watch for sure. I think I could make the case

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that that sixteen seventeen eighteen is arguably one of the

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best three hole finishes. Yeah, in all of golf. It's

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a lot, a lot of fun here. So all right,

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let's talk about total strokes game. Do the screen share

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here and there really isn't that much surprise up top

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here we got Scottie Scheffler. Obviously we're looking at the

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last twelve months, I mean plus three point three one

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last twelve months, second place to spawn at plus one

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point five to five. I mean, they're just laughable at

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this point. So I gotta tell you after Scheffler, I

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got questions here. Spawn has not looked great, Griffin Hey, uh,

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Shoffley Eh, Hovelin, Hey, Matthew Fitzpatrick sixty third and his

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only BG Sam Burns. These guys are gonna have to

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push Scotti. But these total strokes gained over the last

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twelve months, I don't know, Yan, who are we trusting

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out of this group Besides Sheffler.

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Speaker 2: I'm totally with you. I've got Scotty at the top,

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and then I've got those next six seven names on

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no when near the top of my list at all.

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Speaker 1: You gotta talk Seawou Kim. I mean literally, you gotta

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you gotta be talking Sea Wou, Cameron Young, even matsia Seo.

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Speaker 2: And come young a like my second and third.

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Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, Matsiyama's been pretty good. Yeah you got

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Then you got Jordan Speith, who you know, coming off

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of injuries, but he loves playing here. So this total

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st rokes gain chart is pretty interesting this week. It's

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kind of one of those, you know, Scottie or the

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Field type of things. But some of these guys that

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have been good over the last twelve months have not

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shown us very much yet this season. So all right,

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let's do players that can trip you up. This is

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where I take three players that are fairly high priced

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and I say, be a little bit careful about these guys.

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And I'm gonna start with Xander Schaffley. I mean, he

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had the record going of most cuts made and then

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he didn't even make the cut last week. So long

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Layoff had the birth of his child, he openly talked

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about not playing much as playing some practice round with friends.

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It really showed his driving accuracy was an abomination last week.

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It was really terrible. And Yohan, you have, like you said,

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you have to give yourself birdie opportunities. You can't do

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it if you're having to pitch out from behind a tree,

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a bush, cactus, sand whatever. So this is a birdie fest,

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and I don't like his chances this week. You gotta

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be you gotta be on your game on these birdie fests.

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You can't just you know, par your way to him

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make the cut. It's not gonna happen this week. So

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Shaffley's going to be a complete fade. Ben Griffin, listen,

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he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been good enough

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for the price that they're putting him at. And I

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get it, you gotta have somebody second, third, fourth, fifth price.

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But he's opened the season with finishes of nineteenth and

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twenty fourth, losing minus zero point three to nine strokes

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on approach, struggling with the putter, and again the accuracy

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is very very critical here, finishes of thirty six and

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twenty eighth here the last two years. I think he's

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being way over priced as a top six guy. Feels

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way too aggressive for me. Again, who am I putting

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in there above him? I don't know, but I'm just

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not going to be betting on Ben Griffin this week. And

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then we talked about brooks Keepka. I think he's going

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to get a lot of attention this week from betters.

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A multiple time winner here, but that feels like a

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you know, lifetime ago. It's the putting minus two point

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three seven strokes game. Putting the last twelve months, John,

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that is absolutely terrible. I'm sorry. He was minus two

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point three seven last week, minus zero point three to

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eight last twelve months. So if you're not putting well

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at this course, you're going to struggle to even make

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the cut here. So Birdie, heavy course putter, Ice cold Brooks,

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Koepka is going to be a complete fade. So Xander,

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Schaffley Ben Griffin are three players that I think can

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trip you up. All right, Joan, Let's go to head

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to heads. This is for Jan and I each take

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a head to head matchup. We talk about it on

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what side we like. I'll let you go first. What

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was the head to head matchup that you saw that

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you liked.

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Speaker 2: I am taking Come Young over Xander, like I said earlier,

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Come Young. Just how's everything I want around here? Came

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back after a seventh seven week break with a top

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twenty second finish last week, which is pretty perfect return

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off to seven weeks off, and you just have to

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be fighting Xander the baby still didn't have any of

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his class last week. And if he doesn't have his

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class around here, how does he get to minus fifteen

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and like a top twenty finish, I might just need

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Came Young to make the cut here. Actually, but money,

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Come Young the wrong guy's favorite here.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Chris got her Up and Colin

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Morikawa and I'll happily take got her Up. Got Her

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up has a win and an eighteenth place finish this season.

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Mari Kawa a missed cut. Putting is still awful. We

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watched him top one coming out of the bunker. The

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guy just it's been a massive fall for grace from

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this guy. I mean, he was firing caddies last year

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and it just doesn't look like it's gotten better for him.

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Neither one of them have good course history here, but

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as far as current form goes, it's got her up

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and it's not even close again. Calla Morikawa is another

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one these bigger name guys. They're just not performing right

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now on a weekend and week out basis. But Klin

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Morikaw is definitely a fade. From my end, we moved

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to top finishers. This is where we go over to

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top tens, twenties, forties, whatever you want, but real quick, guys,

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if you're watching, please hit the like button really helps

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us out. Leave a comment below, tell us who you like.

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We go in read all the comments. Love seeing what

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you guys are on this week. And we're always running

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our special by seven days of golf for just twenty

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five bucks. You get every play that we have. And

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why is that important? Because we have a live event,

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we have a DP World Tour event, so this year

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we want to make sure that we're including every single event.

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This is a busy, busy golf week. We got the

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Phoenix Open, we got Live under the Lights, We've got

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DP World Tour. Based on the start times of these,

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there might be golf going twenty four hours a day

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starting Wednesday morning, so it could be pretty interesting. But

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we will definitely have a strong play and live as

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well as all of our plays and the Phoenix Open

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and the lines lines go right, we're gonna have DP

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World Tour. So seven days for twenty five bucks. Everybody's

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focused on the super Bowl. That's great. We're gonna make

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some money in golf this week, so invite you to

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join us and over on the wager Talk Specials page

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if you're interested in all sports. Were running get ten

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days for the price of seven. Last week we ran

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the by seven days for the price of three special

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went over huge. We decided to extend it out. So

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if you want all sports, which includes UFC, NBA, rugby, cricket,

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anything that we have going on at wager Talk ten

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days for the price of seven. All right, let's go

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to the top finishers, you get two, I get two.

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Who's your first top finisher that you like?

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Chris got Her up top twenty at plus

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one forty. It's hard to say after he was a

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total spanner on PAGL last night, But this guy still

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has my heart. I said last week there's not many

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played many guys playing better golf than him right now

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of a top twenty finished last week, I'm going back

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to him. He has the exact profile I want around here,

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elite off the tee good tea to green good, Pata,

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ticks every single box, and I think the price is

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just far too big. At plus one four two.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna plant my flag that sa Hith the gala

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is bad. I don't want to say back because like

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he was, was he here? Was he not here? But

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he looked so much better this year than he did

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last year. Last year it was like, oh do we

307
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overestimate this guy? I love him. At top forty including

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ties up minus one forty thirty, first, eighth and seventh.

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The first three tournaments Theori's played in, he's made the

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cut all four times he's played here three of those

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top forty finishes, so I like what I've seen from

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Saith the Gala. He's a great DraftKings play. I'll get

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the Draftking doings a little bit later, but he was

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a big time cash for us for DraftKings, so so

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hit the Gala. I think you're if he keeps playing

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this good. You only got a few tournaments left before

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the books catch up to him. But I think he's

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got good value his number right now. What's your second

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top finish that you like.

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Speaker 2: My second one is Pearson Coody top forty at minus

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one thirty five, so this angle is free and oh.

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In the three events this year, he's finished thirteenth, eighteenth,

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and second. I think this course really suits him, another

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profile where it just fits everything I want. He's big

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off the tea, good tea to green. His putting is

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probably average at best, but the way he's playing right now,

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he probably gets away with it. And I feel like

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ninety percent of what I say in golf is this

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guy's twenty six. He's really improving. Take note, but seriously,

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do take note, because these guys will make you bank

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in the long term. I love these T forty markets.

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You get such a big margin of error for guys

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that I think are gonna actually compete outright and minus

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one thirty five, top forty piercon Coody. It just fits

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everything I want this week.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm gonna take a guy to finish

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in the top twenty when his putting numbers are bad.

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But I can't ignore with what the Woo Kim has

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been doing. I mean, last thirty days, I had to

340
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,720
like triple check this minus zero point five to three

341
00:18:06,759 --> 00:18:09,480
stroke skime putting. But his A tee to green and

342
00:18:09,559 --> 00:18:13,400
approach has been so good. It's got him eleventh, sixth,

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then runner up this season and he has three top

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00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:18,799
twenty three finishes here. I just need you to be

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00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,279
average with your putty, with your with your putting, Seawoo,

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just average, Bring it up to average and you're gonna

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be right there with Scheffler. So again, just give yourself

348
00:18:28,519 --> 00:18:30,519
some chances to get birdies. And I can't ignore the

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course history and how good he's playing minus one o

350
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two on DK and that includes ties, So Seewoo Kim,

351
00:18:36,279 --> 00:18:39,880
not many guys playing better than him right now, All right,

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00:18:40,279 --> 00:18:43,200
outright winner. We all know Scotty's going to be the

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huge betting favorite, but I've got a little bit of

354
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,119
a long shot. Who did you settle on?

355
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean obviously Scotty and Karma, the two guys

356
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,920
at the top of my ball, but there priced accordingly.

357
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So I'm gonna give out a value play that I'm

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gonna take myself as well, and that is Jake Nap

359
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,920
an eleventh and two starts this year, five top five

360
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,319
finishes in his last twenty five starts. A really good driver,

361
00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:11,759
fantastic part. He's got distance, he's got accuracy, he's just

362
00:19:11,839 --> 00:19:14,839
a guy heading in the right direction. Forty to one.

363
00:19:14,839 --> 00:19:17,319
He's worth a sprinkle, and I will be doing so myself.

364
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: You're not gonna believe this. Sometimes it's good when Yan

365
00:19:22,519 --> 00:19:24,839
and I don't talk beforehand. Sometimes it's bad. I literally

366
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:31,039
have Jake Nap written down. Yeah, plus one point five

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00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,720
putting in two tournaments, and that again is what it's

368
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gonna take. So, because I don't want to be too

369
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vanilla here, I'll see if I can come down here

370
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:46,519
a little bit more. I mean jordan' Speith at fifty

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00:19:46,559 --> 00:19:49,359
five to one on a guy that just on, the

372
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guy that just consistently finishes in the top ten. Here

373
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his last three finishes. Yere a fourth, sixth, and sixth.

374
00:19:58,519 --> 00:20:00,519
He's that kind of guy that will hit fifty foot

375
00:20:00,559 --> 00:20:05,720
putts and just he just loves playing here. He embraces

376
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the atmosphere about it. So I guess I'm looking at

377
00:20:08,519 --> 00:20:12,720
somebody besides Jake Naples. Jordan's pethe of fifty five to one,

378
00:20:13,319 --> 00:20:19,000
absolutely terrifying, Yan, So uh yeah, I feel like we

379
00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:21,319
might need to be betting something besides not right winner

380
00:20:21,319 --> 00:20:22,920
on Jake Nap. If you and I both like him,

381
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,279
we might need to look at some head to head

382
00:20:24,279 --> 00:20:30,359
matchups and some top forties. Yeah yeah, DraftKings Darlings. We

383
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,079
had a nice cash in our lineup last week.

384
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: Yan.

385
00:20:34,079 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 1: It happened to me again where the one guy that

386
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,799
missed the cut was the most expensive guy. Thank you

387
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,319
very much, Ludwig Obert for the complete no show. Yan

388
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,440
even sent me a messages like logged in see oberart

389
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,720
plus five logout. It's just a disaster.

390
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: But at.

391
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: It's true there was no sweat about him missing the cut.

392
00:20:54,039 --> 00:20:55,920
So what we do is we take a look at

393
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,759
some of these lower priced guys and if you if

394
00:20:57,759 --> 00:21:01,160
you can't play dfs, these are long shots or guys

395
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,799
that you can take in head to head matchups. So

396
00:21:04,279 --> 00:21:07,200
we've talked about John Perry and I think I'll go

397
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,119
back to him at sixty seven hundred. He's been one

398
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,559
of the most reliable value plays, made the cut in

399
00:21:11,599 --> 00:21:15,160
all three events so far. Plus zero point four zero putting,

400
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,720
and he doesn't really have a weakness. He's not super

401
00:21:17,759 --> 00:21:21,720
long off the tee accurate enough. But John Perry was

402
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,799
a really good DraftKings Darling Force a couple weeks ago,

403
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,279
so we'll go with him. S H. Kim at sixty

404
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:30,720
eight hundred. He continues to impress, really hot putter again

405
00:21:30,799 --> 00:21:34,519
plus zero point seven zero stross gang putting. This tournament's

406
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:38,119
probably going to turn into a putting contest here. Early

407
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:43,039
season finishes of thirteenth and eighteenth those came on easier setups.

408
00:21:43,559 --> 00:21:45,720
Last week it was sixty third, but that was a

409
00:21:45,759 --> 00:21:48,119
much tougher setup. So I like when a guy can

410
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,519
go low on some of these easier courses. It's kind

411
00:21:51,519 --> 00:21:54,720
of like the opposite of will Zalaturus, Like will Zalatauris

412
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:58,119
just doesn't do well on the minus twenties minus twenty

413
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,880
five tournaments, but you give him a strong, hard technical course,

414
00:22:02,559 --> 00:22:04,480
he's going to be your guy. And then we'll close

415
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,000
out Draftking Dongings with Sam Stevens at seventy two hundred.

416
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,640
He's trending at the right time. Good course comfort made

417
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,920
three straight cuts with finishes of thirty, first, thirtieth, and sixth,

418
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,599
maybe cutting both of his previous tournaments here, driving approach

419
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,079
numbers excellent, setting up for some good scoring chances. So

420
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,400
John Perry shkm Sam at Stevens. I noticed a couple

421
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,559
people in our one and done league selected Sam Stevens

422
00:22:28,839 --> 00:22:30,599
last week, so I'm not the only one that's noticed

423
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,920
he's been playing well. So those are good ways to

424
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:37,039
anchor your lineups. And if you get our seven Days

425
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,160
or if you go to the news page on wager Talk,

426
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:44,319
you'll see the full DraftKings lineup and Scotti Scheffler doesn't

427
00:22:44,319 --> 00:22:47,680
appear in my lineup, John. They have priced him so

428
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,559
high that he's kind of unplayable. Last year, it was

429
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,279
just a rule you had to put Scottie Scheffler in there.

430
00:22:54,319 --> 00:22:58,200
But you put Scheffler in your lineup, it eats up

431
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,240
so much and I get it. But Dootty Shuffler not

432
00:23:01,279 --> 00:23:04,240
going to be peering in my lineup this week. So

433
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,400
all right, that's going to do it for us. Thanks

434
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,759
very much for watching the cut line. Yan, great work

435
00:23:09,839 --> 00:23:12,200
last week you were two and zero in your picks.

436
00:23:12,319 --> 00:23:14,799
Looking to continue that momentum next week. Jan and I's

437
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:17,359
picks are all included in that seven day package. You're

438
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,000
getting not one, but two handicappers for that price. Again,

439
00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:23,119
leave a comment, hit the like button. Really appreciate you

440
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,559
guys watching It's waste management Phoenix open week. Baby, It's

441
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:29,839
super Bowl Week, huge, huge week, and I can't wait

442
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,799
till the crossboard parlay has come out. When it's like

443
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:38,559
Ramanjre rushing yards versus Stefan Diggs receiving yards, those are

444
00:23:38,599 --> 00:23:40,480
a lot of fun. If we've seen him like those

445
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:42,880
will be included. Thanks very much, guys, Good luck on

446
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,799
your bets and we'll siero next week on the cut Line.

447
00:23:44,799 --> 00:23:45,119
Take care