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Speaker 1: What is up, Fellawsiko's I am dam Valley coming at

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you with my certified fantabulous co host, mister Grant Hughes.

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It's Win Projection times. We begin with the Eastern Conference.

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The way this will work is Grant and I will

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go with the over under. We will talk about whether

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we're gonna go over under and then give our actual

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record for the team. If you're watching along on YouTube,

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they will pop up on the screen. I'm excited to

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go fifteen to zero in the Eastern Conference this year.

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As a reminder, we do run our over under competition.

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If you win, you get to pick whatever you want

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from a merch store free of charge. We will send

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it to you and you will have the option you

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can decline. I don't know why you would want to.

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The last person didn't answer, so maybe you would want

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to decline, but you can come on and you will

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be on a guess a player, a gap segment or episode,

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whatever it turns into. There have not been a lot

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of people that have signed up just yet, so it's

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in our discord. I will include the link to the

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Google doc to where you just input your over unders.

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Make sure to include your email and to actually title

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the tab. Those are only things you have to do,

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so go check that out, join it. See if you

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can beat me and Grant and quite a few people, well,

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quite a few people beat me last year. And then

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if I would say a few people beat Grant.

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Speaker 2: Not quite a few, but it's yeah, still a solid number.

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Speaker 1: It was just smattering, was a healthy smattering I would

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have preferred. So come join that. And by the way,

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if you have not checked them out yet, we are

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doing look aheads for every single team ahead of the

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regular season. But we talk about so much more, like

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we talk about long term futures. Go check those out

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in our audio feeds on YouTube, and if you haven't already,

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just subscribe. Like the video throw us hype points. Those

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apparently matter now, so hype us up. Tell your friends too,

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so help us continue to grow the podcast and YouTube channel.

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That's all I have. Aside from this question, which is

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the most important question, we will ask Grant, how the

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heck are you?

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Speaker 2: Why don't you answer for me? Since so many of

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your over undertotals are exactly like mine are I assume

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you know exactly how I feel because you seem to

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know what I think.

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Speaker 1: It is you know, what's interesting about that is because

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it's proof that, like, we're not necessarily conforming to each

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other on purpose, because you and I did not consult

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each other before we puts them together. I was literally

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in putting them into the graphic before we got started.

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And the number of teams that we just it wasn't

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even within one or two wins. It was the same

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record is stupid.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of giggling happening as you entered each

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As you got to each team, it's like, how is

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it possible that these that we came so close on

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these two? Also, I didn't look at any over under

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totals before we did this, so I wasn't even like,

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had we both done that, maybe you could that would

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have like influenced us one way or the other or

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pushed us closer to Nope, just just pure coincidence. I

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don't know, it's just group think. Really, I've mine kind

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of stuff.

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Speaker 1: I tried not to expose myself to them this year,

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so I made the questions at the end of the

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look aheads, how many games do you see your team winning?

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Rather than citing the over under. I was exposed a

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little bit because some people cited the over under, but

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I just when I was going through, I was interested

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to see. I didn't look at the over unders. I

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was interested to see like how close I was on

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certain ones, And a lot of them were just like

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the same with you, whereas like, oh, I was within

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like a couple wins of what Vegas thought. Apparently, then

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there were certain teams where it was, oh, you're like

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eight wins off of that, there might be something wrong here.

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Speaker 2: The other tricky thing about this every year is we

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both do make sure that we add up to an

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equal number of wins and losses, which like, that's how

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you should do it, but it also makes it I

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feel like you're more likely to get a lot of

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teams wrong that way, because you realize, oh, I'm forty

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five wins to I have way too many wins, so

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you start pulling them from somewhere. Even though you already

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thought that this team was going to be really good.

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It's like, well, they can't win fifty four. Now they

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have to win fifty one because I need those three

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wins for somebody, or I need three more losses somewhere.

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So it's just like I'm in a toy one of

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these years with just doing it without trying to balance

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wins and losses, just to see see if I could

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somehow be more accurate or right.

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Speaker 1: Next year, we should just not do records. We should

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just do the over under and see if our winning

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percentage on that goes up, because we're not factoring that

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in for me this year though normally I have to,

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or maybe not, I don't remember it, but I feel

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like I have to cull wins from somewhere. Yeah this time.

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But here's a fun anecdote. I was doing it. I

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saw always like almost eighty wins short, and I was like,

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that's insane. That's like three window team almost. It turns

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out I decided not to fill out the Spurs and

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I left them at zero eight wins. So yeah, so

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it worked out. But once I penciled them in, I

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was still short a bunch and I was like, oh,

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I have to give team wins. That doesn't sound fun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: With that though, we're gonna go just straight alphabetically this time.

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You're welcome everybody. I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere,

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but are you ready to get started? Mister Hughes.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: We begin with the Atlanta Hawks over under a forty

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seven and a half. That is decidedly not mid grant.

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Speaker 2: No forty wins last year. We both love their everybody

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kind of has love their offseason. So they they they

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get Jalen Johnson back. They also add Nikhil Alexander Walker,

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they add Luke Canard, they add who's the third guy

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they added? Dan? I can't remember off the top of

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my head, Christops, that's the one.

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Speaker 1: Uh?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, are old pal Kristaps. So basically like go eight deep?

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Uh And they're all really they're all starting caliber players.

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So forty was way too They're gonna beat last year's

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solo forty. And obviously the giant caveat for all these

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teams is as long as they have reasonable health luck

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relative to like the players that they have. That means

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something different from for every team. I suppose it's not

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the same thing for the Clippers as it is for

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the Hawks. For example.

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Speaker 1: Well, they have challenge, Christops, maybe.

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Speaker 2: Not the best. I should have picked them further apart

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team in terms of injury luck. So what do you think, Dan?

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Do you want to give your win total here?

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Speaker 1: So I went with I'm pretty bullish on the Hawks.

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I think that anyone knows. So I went with forty

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nine wins and you ended up going with forty Yes,

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decidedly the over though, No, you have them at the under, right, for.

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Speaker 2: This is a good one. This is so this is

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kind of a sweet spot over under because we're both

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exactly one point five wins separate from it, just in

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opposite directions. I this is a case where I had

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to pull a couple wins. I might have had them

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at forty seven or forty eight beforehand, but I think

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forty six win jump is substantial, right, Like, that's that's

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maybe not quite reflective enough of the talent that they added. Uh,

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but you know, maybe Porzingis doesn't stay healthy, that crazy

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illness thing last year plus just has had injuries on

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top of that.

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Speaker 1: Your immune system shaming. I don't like it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not that far apart, but the fact that

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I'm under and you're over makes for it makes them

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more interesting because one of us will be right and

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one is gonna be wrong. Like, let's start it out

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that way.

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Speaker 1: I totally understand the health concerns. We've yet to see

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Jalen Johnson like, be this version of Jalen Johnson and

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play in sixty five plus games. I just look at

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it as Trey Young is going to be better. He

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has better talent around him, and just his efficiency last

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year specifically wasn't the same. I think they have better

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defensive talent around him. The one concern, aside from health

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that I have for this team is have they under

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indexed on like secondary playmaking. Because you can say, well, like, well,

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Jalen Johnson is there, and Nikilexander Walker can do some things.

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Luke Canard can do some things. Maybe you want to

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test out the more of the depth of Zachary Resiche's game, Sure,

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but I don't know of those guys. Jalen Johnson is

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getting there, But of those guys as well, who do

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you like, you need someone else to just break down

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a defense from scratch, And I don't know, is that

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Dyson Daniels. I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Daniels is kind of He's another guy I thought

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you were gonna mention in the secondary creation thing, more

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of a connective guy. Canard is kind of like I

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feel like it's just we say the same thing about

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Canard all the time because he's not just a shooter.

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He can actually you know, but he's not a born playmaker,

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so I think that's a fair criticism. The defense has

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a chance to be pretty good, though, if Porzinkis is

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healthy and you can have him in a Coong Wu

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as your guys in the middle, and Resa che Solid

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Daniels is great like they're they could be. You know,

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they should be better than average on both offense and defense.

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And the offensive potential is very high because Trey Young

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has led really good offenses in the past. So uh yeah,

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I think this is a mid to high forties team.

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Fifty would be fifty is not off the table, I

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don't think, but but I wasn't quite prepared to go

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that high.

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Speaker 1: So they are neither one of our best bets, though

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we will single that out when we get to the

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first person reveals. Though I'm going to implement this rule

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right now. We can't pick the same ones. Whoever is

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the first to be able to reveal their best bet,

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that's the one that I get. We are on to

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the Boston Celtics forty one and a half grant. Just

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here before we get into the actual wins, like, what

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was your initial reaction to seeing them above five hundred

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in that department?

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Speaker 2: It just felt high. I guess it's a nod to

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the talent that's still here. Jalen Brown Derek White Principally,

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I think I think the other thing that, So, I

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mean we can We could just put the next graphic

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up if you want, because I'm gonna refer to it.

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I went under here, and that's why. What scares me.

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I had thirty seven. You had a thirty two, So

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you're even more bearish on this team than I am.

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Let me pose it to you. Then what scares me

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is the Celtic's likelihood of just winning the math ball

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game by shooting even more threes and just increasing the

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variance and maybe you you know, maybe you run hot

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and you can beat literally anybody because you get up

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sixty five threes or something like that. So they seem

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to me to have a pretty high variance potential and

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they could steal wins they wouldn't otherwise deserve. Obviously that

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cuts the other way. But we're both under here. Why

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does that not concern you? And then maybe talk about

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some of the downward pulling forces that they got you

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down to thirty two.

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Speaker 1: Here's my thing. Yeah, they have told us through their

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actions that they are not trying to win this year.

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We're just going to assume that a team where the

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Jalen Brown is its best player, who's a fantastic player,

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but is he a number one option type guy for

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a full eighty two games. No, No, the answer is no.

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And if they're the other thing, the real thing I'm

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factoring into this though, well, it's two things. They're going

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to get out of the tax and whether that happens

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by trading Anthony Simons or just dumping Sam Hauser and

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doing something else that will make you worse in all likelihood,

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I don't think you're shaving twelve million dollars of salary

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or whatever thirteen and getting better and then the final

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thing and they should actually be destroyed if they don't

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do this is just lean into the gap year. Get

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Jalen Brown, who's banged up beyond comprehension last year, some rest.

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If you want to bring Jason Tatum back, and he

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said that he informed thee What was the report that

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he informed the Celtics that he wants to come back.

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I'm not against it towards the end of the season,

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just to try and get his sea legs about him,

241
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But like what is the incentive that this team has

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to chase. If you're if we're sitting there in February

243
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after the All Star break and they're on pace for

244
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forty two wins or forty one wins, why are you

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leaning in to that ceiling.

246
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Speaker 2: It's not like you've got a bunch of young guys

247
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that need the playoff experience. You know. They let's get

248
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him in a play in game so they can be tested.

249
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It's really that's just not it. I think maybe they

250
00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,480
want to get him some get her some looks. I

251
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,480
think it's smart that you went that low, because if

252
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it's close they I think they should just just pack

253
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it in. I didn't go quite as low as you

254
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,360
did because I think Joe Missoula would lose his mind

255
00:11:35,519 --> 00:11:39,480
if forced to really abjectly tank. So we're both in

256
00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,360
the thirties. This is a pretty clean under for me

257
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and definitely for you.

258
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Speaker 1: I will say I came very close to just making

259
00:11:45,879 --> 00:11:47,960
this my best bet, but I just I don't want

260
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to rule out the Celtics or Peyton Pritchard ends up

261
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,279
winning like MVP or something. Sure, try to account for that.

262
00:11:53,279 --> 00:11:55,200
That's always possibility. You want to take it to the

263
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:56,080
next team.

264
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Speaker 2: Yep, this is the Brooklyn Nets. They're over under is

265
00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:02,639
twenty point five. They won twenty six last year, spurred

266
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by a nine and ten start that they just they

267
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could not erase those early wins and that's how they

268
00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,679
got there. We talked to Lucas Kaplan and I think

269
00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:12,679
we you know, he definitely put it out there, and

270
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,320
I think we both kind of agree. The Nets are

271
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probably gonna play hard. They do have veteran lead lineups

272
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that can be pretty good if they want to. Now

273
00:12:21,919 --> 00:12:24,480
they shouldn't because they also have one hundred rookies that

274
00:12:24,519 --> 00:12:26,679
all need to play and probably shout out the ball.

275
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,080
Yeah one hundred, hold on, one hundred and four two

276
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,440
one hundred and four rookies all first rounders. Somehow, I

277
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,440
don't know how that worked. So twenty and a half

278
00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,159
is a low total. They're gonna have to They're gonna

279
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,440
have to try, I think, to get down to that number,

280
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,720
and I don't think they're gonna pull it off. I

281
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think they're gonna be just over at twenty one. And

282
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of course this is the first instance of a of

283
00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,600
a perfect agreement between the two of us.

284
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Speaker 1: I just went I wanted to reinforce the over without

285
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having to like go too far into the win column.

286
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:03,679
So they made it Okay, this is over and I

287
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,720
don't have to add any wins to them. I ended

288
00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:08,399
up pulling away from them. I think I had like

289
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,360
twenty four to twenty five, but for the purposes of

290
00:13:10,399 --> 00:13:12,600
hitting them over under I was like, no, this works,

291
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,240
you said it. That's just such a low total. And

292
00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:18,519
just look at how the team started under Jordi Fernandez

293
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,120
last year. And I think that they will win games

294
00:13:21,159 --> 00:13:23,360
they're not supposed to because teams will be sleeping on them,

295
00:13:23,399 --> 00:13:25,399
and like you said, they'll try hard. And I really

296
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:29,120
just believe, Okay, cool, they could shut down whoever they want.

297
00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,320
There's no one on this team that they could shut down.

298
00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:34,519
And you like feel materially worse about their chances of

299
00:13:34,519 --> 00:13:36,679
winning a game in March or April.

300
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,519
Speaker 2: Right. I do think like this is sort of two

301
00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:43,799
teams because if you just make sure that it's it's

302
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,840
gemin I can't I can run never at Saraf or

303
00:13:48,039 --> 00:13:50,720
trey Ore. If those guys are handling the ball all

304
00:13:50,759 --> 00:13:52,759
the time and running the offense, yeah, you could win

305
00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:55,679
in the teams like that's that's the best way, probably

306
00:13:55,799 --> 00:13:58,399
to just make sure you're a bad Teams have rookies

307
00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,320
do a lot of the heavy life. But it's like,

308
00:14:01,399 --> 00:14:03,919
what do you do with all these Like Michael Porter

309
00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:06,639
Junior is a good NBA player, Nick Claxon's a good player,

310
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,720
like we even like Noah Clowney's an interesting I mean

311
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:13,080
he might pop. Like there's Cam Thomas is gonna score,

312
00:14:13,159 --> 00:14:15,000
Like there's a bunch of guys that could all they

313
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,799
They're gonna have to bench these players. That's just what's

314
00:14:17,799 --> 00:14:19,519
gonna have to happen, and I think they'll do it.

315
00:14:19,879 --> 00:14:22,360
Speaker 1: I think the other thing too, is and this doesn't

316
00:14:22,399 --> 00:14:26,240
spoil anything. They don't need to win seventy The lattery

317
00:14:26,279 --> 00:14:29,000
ons are you want a bottom four record twenty one

318
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,639
wins or like what twenty four wins might even get

319
00:14:31,639 --> 00:14:31,879
you here?

320
00:14:31,919 --> 00:14:33,919
Speaker 2: You don't, you're pretty sid like, yeah.

321
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,120
Speaker 1: You don't need to be a fifteen win team. So

322
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,799
I think that will factor in as well. We're onto

323
00:14:38,919 --> 00:14:41,120
the Charlotte Hornet. They're always such a tough team. I

324
00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,200
could talk myself they're twenty six and a half is

325
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,080
their overunder. I could talk myself into a lot more

326
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,320
than that. I'm not gonna lie and I want to

327
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,159
start before we reveal it. Can I ask you what's

328
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:56,840
the case of them winning like twenty six or under games? Uh?

329
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,639
Speaker 2: Well, the easy answers LaMelo gets hurt again in the

330
00:14:59,679 --> 00:15:03,159
offense falls apart, which is again we don't we don't

331
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,559
just paint with the broadest injury brush, like he just

332
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,799
hasn't stayed healthy. So for this team, that's like, that's

333
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,759
not just some hypothetical concern, it's a real one, and

334
00:15:12,799 --> 00:15:15,759
it's one that has affected their record for several seasons.

335
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,320
So that's the starting point. And then I think, I

336
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,720
think you look at Conker Nipple. We like him. That's

337
00:15:21,879 --> 00:15:24,039
another rookie that maybe if he's going to play a

338
00:15:24,039 --> 00:15:25,879
lot that's gonna hurt the offense, that's going to hurt

339
00:15:25,879 --> 00:15:28,320
the defense. And Brandon Miller maybe that step forward in

340
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,679
terms of volume doesn't bring efficiency this year, Like there's

341
00:15:31,759 --> 00:15:35,679
just and then really, Dan, the center rotation is as

342
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,960
bad as rough right, and.

343
00:15:37,919 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: So the will rather have Charlotte's or New Orleans.

344
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 2: Is It's all I will say is that Charlotte's clearly

345
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,159
the worst in the East and New Orleans is clearly

346
00:15:46,159 --> 00:15:49,360
the worst in the West. This defense has no chance

347
00:15:49,399 --> 00:15:52,120
of being good because that the the center play is

348
00:15:52,159 --> 00:15:54,879
going to be so rough and and throwing LaMelo in

349
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,480
a bunch of young players like so that that's how

350
00:15:57,559 --> 00:15:59,799
you get all the way under twenty six is maybe

351
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,639
injury and the defense is going to just give everything

352
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,919
up at the basket, right, like those are my two keys?

353
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:05,480
Do you have more?

354
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,240
Speaker 1: No? I think it's just LaMelo And then it would

355
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,080
be did Brandon Miller who did what we see before

356
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,159
his injury was that sort of a sign of things

357
00:16:13,159 --> 00:16:14,919
to come? Or felt like he might have maxed out

358
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:16,240
on the offensive end?

359
00:16:16,679 --> 00:16:17,879
Speaker 2: So what's the upside case?

360
00:16:17,879 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 1: Though?

361
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,679
Speaker 2: Because I like you, you could talk me into like thirty

362
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,360
seven if everything, if a lot broke right right, you

363
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,120
can get way into the thirties.

364
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,039
Speaker 1: Right, because if you look at the setup of this roster,

365
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,200
LaMelo plus shooting is not something that we've seen consistently

366
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,120
and not something we've seen for at least three or

367
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,000
four years. Like go if we go back and look

368
00:16:36,039 --> 00:16:39,320
at like where his teammates ranked in three point efficiency off,

369
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,360
but it is putrid. It's just absolutely atrocious. So if

370
00:16:43,399 --> 00:16:46,000
he's healthy and he has SPA saying yeah, he's still

371
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,000
gonna do things, and he will infuriate you with the

372
00:16:49,039 --> 00:16:51,159
plays he doesn't make on defense, on the shots he

373
00:16:51,159 --> 00:16:53,600
takes on offense. But I really think I don't want

374
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,399
to use the phrase rained in necessarily, but I feel

375
00:16:56,399 --> 00:16:58,919
like we could see more of an even keeled LaMelo

376
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,440
on the offensive end because there's talent, offensive talent actually

377
00:17:02,519 --> 00:17:04,559
around him. So the case for me is, just if

378
00:17:04,559 --> 00:17:07,039
he plays in sixty five seventy games and they remain

379
00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:10,440
relatively healthy, is the offense just so good and they

380
00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:12,440
rip off you know when you get to play. Yeah,

381
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,640
there's really good teams in the East, but just think

382
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,680
about the Moras of the East, where it's like against

383
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,160
the Miami's, the Toronto's, the Chicago's. They could pick up

384
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,759
wins against those teams and all of a sudden find

385
00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:23,079
themselves high thirties, maybe even low forties.

386
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,519
Speaker 2: And I think too, you can be a LaMelo skeptic

387
00:17:26,559 --> 00:17:31,000
in the sense that you're not convinced that he's an

388
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,440
you're convinced that he's unseerious and he can't be the

389
00:17:34,559 --> 00:17:37,240
driving force on a team that does something in the playoffs.

390
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,200
That can still be true. But also LaMelo could lead

391
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,400
a offense that ranks like eighth or ninth in the

392
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,240
league and they still win thirty four games or whatever

393
00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:48,920
because the defense is twenty seventh like that, You know,

394
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,480
you can you can have questions about LaMelo impacting winning

395
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,319
at the highest level. That's way different than saying he

396
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,640
can't lead a really good offense that wins you in

397
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:01,039
the a thirty some odd games, Right, So I don't know,

398
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,079
I'm just saying there's there's a decent spread here for

399
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:04,640
this team.

400
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,599
Speaker 1: Needless to say, we both went over, because I really

401
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,480
the twenty six and a half is just we're gonna

402
00:18:10,519 --> 00:18:14,920
assume that LaMelo plays in thirty eight forty games. Again, look,

403
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,880
it's a distinct possibility, but it just sort of feels

404
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:18,920
it's not twenty six point six with the graph bet

405
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,559
screen shut out me. So I had them at thirty

406
00:18:21,559 --> 00:18:23,839
three wins because I actually the other thing about this

407
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,240
front office, I don't think this would It certainly wouldn't

408
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,599
be the reason they hit the under, but like they

409
00:18:29,599 --> 00:18:32,680
have made moves at each of the past two trade deadlines,

410
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,559
that shows they're more invested in the bigger picture. And

411
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,359
let's say everybody is healthy. If they're only in the

412
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,119
running for like tenth or eleventh place. I think that

413
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:42,240
they will steer out of it.

414
00:18:43,319 --> 00:18:47,519
Speaker 2: I think that's true. I I think on the one

415
00:18:47,519 --> 00:18:49,960
thing to think about with this team is because we

416
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,599
do sort of agree that the front office it has

417
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,480
a long time horizon and is being patient and deliberate

418
00:18:56,519 --> 00:18:59,279
and making small moves on the margins. It also might

419
00:18:59,279 --> 00:19:01,160
be the kind of front office that really does just

420
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,079
say we kind of want a top four pick if

421
00:19:04,079 --> 00:19:05,920
we can get it. Like, I don't know how you

422
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,400
engineer that, but I wouldn't put it past them, just

423
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:16,079
because I think if you respect this front office, and

424
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,519
we kind of do, you probably shouldn't rule out a

425
00:19:18,559 --> 00:19:22,319
tank if they see the opportunity. But that would require injuries.

426
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:27,480
I think who we got next, Chicago Bulls Dan thirty

427
00:19:27,519 --> 00:19:32,440
two and a half Josh Giddy's Chicago Bulls that I'm

428
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,559
just gonna start. That's low. That seems low. I look,

429
00:19:36,279 --> 00:19:38,240
all we know about the Bulls is they win between

430
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,079
thirty eight and forty two games every year. I'm gonna

431
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,680
jump on it now. I'm going over not by a ton,

432
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,119
but this is my best bet. The Bulls are not

433
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,799
gonna win. They're not gonna win thirty two games because

434
00:19:50,839 --> 00:19:52,799
that's what they should do, and they don't do the

435
00:19:52,839 --> 00:19:55,279
things they should do. I have met thirty eight, you

436
00:19:55,319 --> 00:19:58,279
have met thirty four, you're also over. I just think, okay,

437
00:19:58,599 --> 00:20:01,680
joke like joking about the only winning like within this

438
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,240
four game range aside, I think Giddy. I don't love

439
00:20:05,319 --> 00:20:07,119
him as a high level winner, kind of same thing

440
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,319
as LaMelo, but I think he's gonna be a good

441
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,359
player this year. I like Kobe White. Vucevich shot the

442
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,119
shit out of it last year. He won't do that again,

443
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,000
but he's a good offensive player. Modess Bizellis could pop

444
00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:18,880
in his second year. We like I would assume it.

445
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,759
Speaker 1: There's just kind of enough here to not be a

446
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,880
thirty two win team to go under.

447
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,519
Speaker 2: Uh So, I don't know. I can I say that

448
00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:29,799
I don't like the Chicago Bulls, but I also think

449
00:20:29,839 --> 00:20:32,359
they're definitely winning more than thirty two games.

450
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,799
Speaker 1: To make them your best bet. I just here's the thing.

451
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,519
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. All my other over unders are all

452
00:20:41,519 --> 00:20:43,519
my other win totals are so close to the actual

453
00:20:43,559 --> 00:20:46,880
over under that like, mathematically, this is my best bet.

454
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,920
I think this is the furthest I was from the

455
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:49,960
actual number.

456
00:20:51,039 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 1: That's a mic drop yeah, Oh.

457
00:20:54,799 --> 00:20:55,599
Speaker 2: Where's that been?

458
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 1: That's Grant, that's the best bet the Chicago Well, that is,

459
00:21:00,559 --> 00:21:03,720
I did not see that coming in. I would echo

460
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,440
everything you said the thirty two and a half, even

461
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,480
though I have them at thirty four, which isn't much higher.

462
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,519
I just like it almost assumes that this would be

463
00:21:11,559 --> 00:21:14,279
the team that has the foresight to trade Kobe White,

464
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,960
to not play Nikola Vucevich or trade him, and we

465
00:21:18,079 --> 00:21:20,400
just know, I know they traded Zach Lavine last year,

466
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,839
but we also just know that that's not typically how

467
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:26,440
they operate, and so the path to them finishing under

468
00:21:26,519 --> 00:21:29,039
feels it's not. I mean, Nikola Vuevich is playly way

469
00:21:29,039 --> 00:21:31,079
more important to this team than he should be. But

470
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,599
to me, if they're gonna keep Kobe White, if they're

471
00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,559
gonna get it like this, this implies it's not injuries

472
00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:39,759
to me necessarily, it's like this implies that they're gonna

473
00:21:39,799 --> 00:21:43,319
be fire sellers, and there they've never done anything ever

474
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,200
close to that. Noe. We move on to another team

475
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,200
that is called the Cleveland Cavaliers fifty six and a half. Grant,

476
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,200
what was your what was your reaction to seeing fifty

477
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,559
six and a half as they're over under.

478
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 2: I mean, what do they win? What did they win

479
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,599
last year? Sixty? No, fifty nine, I can't even remember now,

480
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:02,799
it was a lot, It was more than this.

481
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,079
Speaker 1: So they were at last year they were at sixty four.

482
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 2: Sixty sixty four Jesus Christ, that's a lot of winters.

483
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,839
Speaker 1: So when did when did they exit the playoffs?

484
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,400
Speaker 2: Though a little well, if you're asking about any of

485
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,359
the last three seasons, a little earlier than they would

486
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:23,200
have preferred. Uh So this seems low, But I do

487
00:22:23,319 --> 00:22:27,359
think I imagine this has moved because coming off of

488
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:31,119
last year adding Lonzo, I guess Lonzo Ball is not

489
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,720
a regular season player. But like some of the injuries

490
00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:36,640
that they're starting the season with have to have affected

491
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,880
this number, and I think it affected my thinking about

492
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:44,519
them too. So uh, like you would assume I would

493
00:22:44,559 --> 00:22:48,759
have assumed this number before, Like was there a moment

494
00:22:48,799 --> 00:22:51,000
where we before we knew Garland was going to miss

495
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,440
a bunch of time and before we knew Struce was hurt,

496
00:22:53,839 --> 00:22:56,240
It had to have been closer to sixty, right, I

497
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,920
would I would assume it has moved down. I think

498
00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:02,599
after kind of the like the off season storm of

499
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,279
transactions were over. Initially, it was very easy to just

500
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,240
talk yourselves into the Cavaliers is by far and away

501
00:23:09,799 --> 00:23:12,200
the best regular season team in the Eastern Like there's

502
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,920
a chasm between them, Orlando, Atlanta, New York, anyone else

503
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,440
you throw in there, right, I think you just have

504
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,759
to factor in the injuries and just like, look, they're

505
00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:23,759
I'll just they're gonna have my highest projected wins in

506
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,599
the conference. That's more a statement of I don't think

507
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:28,799
anyone's running away with things this year. I've got them

508
00:23:28,839 --> 00:23:29,559
at fifty six.

509
00:23:29,759 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: So do you.

510
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 2: I've I've talked a lot. What are your general thoughts

511
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,119
on the Cavs. I will just say before I take

512
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,160
turn it to you, like, I think the offense is

513
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,400
just gonna be really good because of the style they play,

514
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:42,880
and Donovan Mitchell's great, and I think Evan Mobley will

515
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,000
be better and they can weather the Garland thing.

516
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: Those are all exceedingly hot takes that we cannot stand for.

517
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,200
You're just you've become too much of a contrarian for me.

518
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,039
So one of the reasons I have them under is

519
00:23:55,079 --> 00:23:57,559
so it's not even those injuries to Garland and Strews,

520
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,480
but also the other thing is I. I like the

521
00:24:00,559 --> 00:24:04,559
Lonzo Ball addition, but like, defensively, this team on the

522
00:24:04,599 --> 00:24:07,319
perimeter can get very weird very quickly. I know they

523
00:24:07,319 --> 00:24:10,440
have DeAndre Hunter, but he's always been a six foot

524
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,359
eight inch body that you can throw at other premier

525
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,039
players and it's not always gonna end well. The other

526
00:24:16,079 --> 00:24:17,920
thing is Dean Wade can handle a lot of that

527
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,039
stuff when Dean Wade is available to play, which is

528
00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:23,000
also just not a given. And how many minutes can

529
00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:25,319
Dean Wade actually play if you're playing him? And you

530
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,559
also what do you look? Are you making any trade

531
00:24:27,559 --> 00:24:29,480
offs you don't want to at the offensive end? So

532
00:24:29,599 --> 00:24:32,920
losing Isaaca Korro and going like two Lonzo Ball, who's

533
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,000
a good defender, but he's not this lockdown, one on

534
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,839
one type of guy. He's just going to be more

535
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:42,039
of a connective, disruptive, solid tissue on that side of

536
00:24:42,039 --> 00:24:45,119
the floor. I just I have like a pin in

537
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,759
sort of it and saying, oh, could this team be

538
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:48,839
like Evan Mobley and Jared Allen are on the court

539
00:24:48,839 --> 00:24:50,599
at the defensive rating, even if they don't rebound, it

540
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,759
will probably be super elite. But I'm just sort of

541
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:56,119
wondering when you combine those questions on the perimeter with

542
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,039
the injuries, also with the fact that at this point,

543
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,920
and this is not this sounds like a contrarian take,

544
00:25:02,079 --> 00:25:05,319
or maybe it doesn't. This thing's gonna get blown up

545
00:25:05,759 --> 00:25:08,160
if they exit, like if there's not a competitive second

546
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,519
round series here this season, and so I think that

547
00:25:11,559 --> 00:25:14,519
they know enough to understand it's not about the regular season,

548
00:25:14,559 --> 00:25:16,720
and so we might see even more pullback. I mean,

549
00:25:16,759 --> 00:25:19,480
they won so many games last year while still pulling back.

550
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,279
Maybe the East is better set up for that because

551
00:25:22,319 --> 00:25:25,039
of what's going on in Boston and Indiana. I just

552
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,640
if they were fully healthy, if Darius Gorne was gonna

553
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,000
be healthy to start the year, if Ma actually was,

554
00:25:30,039 --> 00:25:31,759
maybe I could talk myself and I could talk myself

555
00:25:31,759 --> 00:25:34,160
and me over right now, I think they're gonna go

556
00:25:34,279 --> 00:25:34,559
for it.

557
00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where if I agree with that. I mean,

558
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,200
I don't have anything really to add there other than

559
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,319
I'm not ruling out the possibility that Evan Mobley is

560
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,839
so good this year that whatever the Cavs do, they're

561
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,640
just going over. But I'm conservatively just a half win

562
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:56,359
under with you. Who we got next, the Detroit Pistons.

563
00:25:57,079 --> 00:26:01,200
I was surprised when I put my wind total down

564
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:04,079
over unders forty six and a half, just to get

565
00:26:04,079 --> 00:26:06,599
that out there first. I feel like that's that's a

566
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,200
great number because it it kind of capitalizes on what

567
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,720
I believe to be just a general sentiment that the

568
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,599
Pistons are on the way up right, like they blew away.

569
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,079
They're like fourteen to forty four wins year over year,

570
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,079
So obviously they're still getting better because Kate Cunningham is

571
00:26:22,079 --> 00:26:26,039
an All NBA caliber player. Now we believe in Ron Holland,

572
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:28,920
Asar Thompson, Jalen dur And, Jade and Ivy, Isaiah Stewart,

573
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,039
all these young guys around them getting incrementally better. So

574
00:26:32,079 --> 00:26:35,640
why wouldn't they win a couple more games? Spoiler alert,

575
00:26:36,279 --> 00:26:40,200
neither of us have them going over. I've got them

576
00:26:40,279 --> 00:26:44,039
at forty four wins? Is what's your total on the Pistons?

577
00:26:44,079 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: Here?

578
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:45,519
Speaker 2: Is it also forty four? Yeah?

579
00:26:45,599 --> 00:26:47,319
Speaker 1: Boring, we both have four.

580
00:26:48,279 --> 00:26:50,079
Speaker 2: How do we justify this here?

581
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,519
Speaker 1: It is? Is that because here here's the guiding phrase

582
00:26:53,559 --> 00:26:56,799
for the Pistons. Progress isn't linear, which really is a

583
00:26:56,839 --> 00:26:59,079
nice way of saying that there's a chance that they're

584
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,640
just worse in the win lost Colum then last year

585
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,039
or about the same, And yes, Kate Cunningham will get better,

586
00:27:05,079 --> 00:27:07,000
and I think you can still bank on growth from

587
00:27:07,039 --> 00:27:10,880
for sure, Asar Thompson, Ron Holland, Jalen Duran, even Jade

588
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,000
and Ivy. But here are a few things with me.

589
00:27:13,599 --> 00:27:16,319
Is that we can't just look at Jade and Ivy's

590
00:27:16,319 --> 00:27:18,559
thirty something games like whatever it ended up being and

591
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,000
decide that that is the new normal. He shot so

592
00:27:21,039 --> 00:27:23,160
well from three and that's the new normal. He's also

593
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,440
I know players have done this, but he's coming back

594
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,240
from a broken leg and that's not an insignificant injury.

595
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,799
They've also kind of telegraphed with their moves from the

596
00:27:31,799 --> 00:27:35,319
offseason that they're still going to prioritize development. They didn't

597
00:27:35,319 --> 00:27:36,839
make any big swings, and I think that was the

598
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,880
right move. And so if you're gonna give Asar Thompson

599
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,519
and then even more so Ron Holland plenty of runway,

600
00:27:42,839 --> 00:27:44,920
I think there will be growing pains that come with that.

601
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,079
I think they'll still be really good on defense, but

602
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,079
I kind of think there's the potential for like the

603
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:53,160
offensive floor, especially during the non Kate Cunningham minutes to

604
00:27:53,279 --> 00:27:55,440
fall out from underneath them. And the final thing I'll

605
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,400
say is just I don't know that I could think

606
00:27:57,799 --> 00:28:02,039
of like a more lateral offseason then going from Dennis Shreuder,

607
00:28:02,279 --> 00:28:07,319
Malik Beasley, Simoni Fontacio to then Duncan Robinson Kasler for hurt.

608
00:28:08,079 --> 00:28:10,799
Speaker 2: If if Beasley does end up signing back with them,

609
00:28:10,839 --> 00:28:13,880
though this that that addresses a lot of I think

610
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,799
the concerns we share about their offense because like he's

611
00:28:17,839 --> 00:28:20,440
he's just better than Duncan Robinson. Now having both is

612
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,079
even better because he is great because you can you

613
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,240
put a pair of like just.

614
00:28:25,559 --> 00:28:26,759
Speaker 1: There, it's skeleton key.

615
00:28:26,839 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so but I do think, yeah, I think

616
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,559
the best thing the Pistons can do is try to

617
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,960
figure out can we play Thompson and Holland together and

618
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,240
how do they compliment Caid?

619
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,599
Speaker 1: Probably not?

620
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, not well right now, But you've got to take

621
00:28:45,559 --> 00:28:48,200
a look at that, and that's gonna hurt the bottom

622
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,519
line because you probably could get to the high forties

623
00:28:50,559 --> 00:28:53,960
if you didn't prioritize developing these guys that I think

624
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,680
we both like a lot long term, Like if you

625
00:28:56,759 --> 00:28:59,920
just play assume Beasley's back, play him more, uh play

626
00:29:00,079 --> 00:29:02,400
Duncan Robinson a lot to get the floor space with

627
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,480
Tobias Harris, and you know, there's ways for the Pistons

628
00:29:05,519 --> 00:29:07,160
to be better in the short term, I think, But

629
00:29:07,319 --> 00:29:11,960
I think and I hope they won't pursue those because

630
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,599
they realize that it's just more valuable to get Thompson

631
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,240
and Holland, like real exposure in lineups that might, you know,

632
00:29:19,519 --> 00:29:22,039
three years from now, be a Conference finals type of thing,

633
00:29:22,079 --> 00:29:23,960
you know, Like, I think that's just that's part of

634
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,960
the reason we're both we both like them. But I think,

635
00:29:27,119 --> 00:29:29,480
you know, just going with the same win totals last

636
00:29:29,559 --> 00:29:31,160
year is just just feels about right.

637
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: I think they would need to see an offensive leap

638
00:29:34,039 --> 00:29:37,559
from either Holland or Thompson or end up trading for

639
00:29:38,119 --> 00:29:40,039
not like an option, but like some type of a

640
00:29:40,039 --> 00:29:43,440
different look at forward than Tobias Harris, or maybe even

641
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,279
more of a floor spacing five to give their lineups

642
00:29:46,319 --> 00:29:48,720
a different feel for them to be Oh, we're like

643
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,200
a fifty win team now, I don't like And I

644
00:29:51,359 --> 00:29:54,519
would almost say that I think it needs to happen externally.

645
00:29:55,039 --> 00:29:56,559
And by when I say needs, I don't mean go

646
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,319
out and do it. Pistons. I think what they did

647
00:29:58,359 --> 00:30:00,640
this offseason was like, I think that's the patients, is

648
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,000
the right play, but I don't see anything internally happen,

649
00:30:04,079 --> 00:30:06,720
internally happening that would get them to fifty win territory.

650
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:08,960
Maybe that's an underestimation of Kate or some of the

651
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,640
young guys there though. Yeap, we are onto the Indiana

652
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,079
Pacers who do not have Tyre's Halbert and so they're

653
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,720
over under checks in at thirty six and a half.

654
00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:22,400
Can I before reveal, can I tell you what my

655
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,279
first reaction was when I saw this, Please, I penciled

656
00:30:26,279 --> 00:30:27,960
in my wins, and so when I did all that thing,

657
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,039
I went and I unblocked out the over unders, and

658
00:30:31,839 --> 00:30:33,960
I thought I was being too generous with the amount

659
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,279
of wins that I was giving them. They got rid

660
00:30:36,359 --> 00:30:38,880
of the entire identity of their team, Like when they

661
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,039
didn't get rid of He's got like he's injured, and

662
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:43,559
then you let someone else who's a huge part of

663
00:30:43,599 --> 00:30:45,279
the identity of your offense, even if you want to

664
00:30:45,279 --> 00:30:47,799
point to his shooting percentage in the NBA Finals in

665
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,799
Miles Turner to a center rotation that is Jay Huff,

666
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,160
Isaiah Jackson, James Wiseman's in there, we'll see see akaman

667
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,359
Obi topping at the five. It's become a cliche to

668
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,720
just cite their net rating together last year. What are

669
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:04,119
we I feel like they have that finals sheene. I

670
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,039
think we might be giving the Pacers too much credit

671
00:31:08,519 --> 00:31:11,400
for what they could be without Tyres Haliburt and Miles

672
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,880
Turner on the roster and no no suitable replacements for either.

673
00:31:16,839 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: I think to go over here, you have to be

674
00:31:20,039 --> 00:31:26,119
so sold on play style, on Rick Carlisle, on just

675
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:31,039
this sort of collective we play harder than everybody, and

676
00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:35,279
we move the ball more quickly than everybody approach, And

677
00:31:35,319 --> 00:31:37,319
you have to be sold that all that works without

678
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,200
one of the single best offensive players in the league

679
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,920
and one of the like three centers that can space

680
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,680
the floor and defend the basket. So like that was

681
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,559
too much for me, it was too much for you.

682
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:52,000
We're both under pretty comfortably. I've got him at thirty

683
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,880
three wins, you've got him at thirty four thirty four,

684
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,759
So I mean you just I believe how Haliburton is

685
00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:03,880
like a transcendent offensive like just changes everything about how

686
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,039
your team plays. And if you just don't get to say, well,

687
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,559
Nemhrt is gonna be pretty good there and Ben Matheren's

688
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:13,440
gonna shoot a lot more and can scale up. It's

689
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,720
just like, yeah, that might all be true. You don't

690
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,119
have Tyr's Haliburton, Like, that's just I'm not getting past that.

691
00:32:19,119 --> 00:32:21,519
That's such a huge loss. And now TJ McConnell's gonna

692
00:32:21,519 --> 00:32:23,920
start the season hurt too. So Nemhrd is just like

693
00:32:24,599 --> 00:32:26,640
already got to guard the best guard on the other

694
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,000
team and now just is the only point guard. Like

695
00:32:29,039 --> 00:32:30,759
what are It's just too much.

696
00:32:30,759 --> 00:32:33,359
Speaker 1: And Ben Mathern playing for his next contract makes me

697
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,160
a littlequeasy. Not gonna lie.

698
00:32:35,319 --> 00:32:37,599
Speaker 2: He's gonna get up this year. Dan, He's gonna shoot

699
00:32:37,599 --> 00:32:38,960
a ton and.

700
00:32:39,079 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: I think that that will contribute to their lottery quite

701
00:32:42,599 --> 00:32:45,240
And that's by the way. I know it's taboo to

702
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,000
say that this team could pivot and decide to tank.

703
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,079
This team could pivot and decide that you don't have

704
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,599
they should probably they got their right and you could

705
00:32:55,599 --> 00:32:57,640
do something where it's I know, like maybe a nem

706
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,640
hard and am they don't want to, like Neie Smith

707
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:00,799
don't want to be a part of that. But if

708
00:33:00,799 --> 00:33:03,920
you just get to February and you're decidedly a thirty

709
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,920
six win basketball team. What else is there for you

710
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,359
to do? I am interested to relitigate the Tyres Haliburton trade.

711
00:33:10,359 --> 00:33:12,200
When the Pacers win thirty three and the Kings win

712
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,519
thirty five, I think that's gonna that's gonna be a

713
00:33:14,559 --> 00:33:16,039
really instructive discussion.

714
00:33:16,519 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: That is not a case I thought we would be

715
00:33:18,279 --> 00:33:20,480
reopening after last year.

716
00:33:20,359 --> 00:33:24,359
Speaker 1: But here we are the Miami Heat grant. I'm gonna

717
00:33:24,359 --> 00:33:26,559
spoil this one even though it's yours, and just let

718
00:33:26,559 --> 00:33:34,720
you know that it's happening. Oh, they are my best

719
00:33:34,759 --> 00:33:38,559
bet at thirty seven and a half, So I went

720
00:33:38,599 --> 00:33:42,920
over that is why. That is why it's my best bet. Shocker, Uh,

721
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,240
they I have them at forty What do I have

722
00:33:46,279 --> 00:33:51,400
them at forty four? Forty four wins? Their offense, they're

723
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,640
trying to play faster. It hasn't always looked great in

724
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,039
the preseason. I get it. Norman Powell is a perfect

725
00:33:57,039 --> 00:33:59,000
fit for this team. I think Tyler Hero he's gonna

726
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,319
beginning the season injured, but he's better than people are expecting.

727
00:34:01,359 --> 00:34:03,839
I don't expect Bam to shoot like nineteen percent at

728
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,319
the rim like he like the entire year, and I

729
00:34:06,319 --> 00:34:08,480
know he had some iffy jump shooting numbers last year.

730
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,079
This team is kind of sneaky deep to me. I

731
00:34:11,079 --> 00:34:14,199
think they found something with Nikoliovich in the starting lineup

732
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,920
and just what he's able to do even as a passer.

733
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,079
I think bring Khalil Wair off the bench that you

734
00:34:18,079 --> 00:34:20,400
could stagger him and bam out of Baio makes all

735
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,119
the sense in the world when you look at what

736
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,000
Khalil Wheeler wants to do on offense, which is like

737
00:34:25,039 --> 00:34:27,239
he doesn't want to just be in place in space,

738
00:34:27,599 --> 00:34:29,119
like he wants to screen. He wants to be able

739
00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:32,400
to move, he wants to do some things with the ball. Now,

740
00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:36,440
they don't have an elite, you know, primary playmaker, ball

741
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,719
handler guy. That's what everyone wants to point out. I

742
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,599
think they can kind of piece meal together with Pelee

743
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,440
larsen Or. And I was not the biggest fan of

744
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,519
Casperis Yakacionas and then watching him not even more so

745
00:34:48,559 --> 00:34:51,159
in Summer League, but through the preseason, he just sees

746
00:34:51,199 --> 00:34:54,280
things and like even when he's not finishing, he gets

747
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,480
deep into the paint like he is drawing two to

748
00:34:56,519 --> 00:34:59,079
the ball. Dad's going to open up the entire offense.

749
00:34:59,119 --> 00:35:00,719
And I also kind of I like some of the

750
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,960
other guys too. Drew Smith, like just by the way,

751
00:35:04,599 --> 00:35:07,800
tours Achilles in December and is already back paying basketball.

752
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,119
But that's insane. That's absolutely insane. I think this team

753
00:35:11,159 --> 00:35:13,519
is deeper than people are crediting. And the final thing

754
00:35:13,519 --> 00:35:16,599
I'll say is this is like kind of the team

755
00:35:16,679 --> 00:35:19,079
that Eric Spolelscher was born to coach. It feels like

756
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,559
the expectations are pretty much gone. You don't have to

757
00:35:21,599 --> 00:35:24,239
deal with the any star drama, and you don't have

758
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,239
I know, they only won thirty seven last year, so

759
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,280
it might think, oh, you traded Jimmy Butler midseason, still

760
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:30,960
only got to thirty seven, and you think they're gonna

761
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,320
be better not having a deal with the specter of

762
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,639
that BS and knowing how to like run your offense

763
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,199
without him there, I think winds up being a really

764
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,159
big deal. So I think they get to forty four.

765
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,639
I think they will. I don't know forty four. Will

766
00:35:42,679 --> 00:35:44,880
have to look at does forty four get you in

767
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,519
the top six in the East. I'll look at my

768
00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:49,000
standings it does, so I have them sixth in the

769
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,559
Eastern Conference. I think this is the team that we're

770
00:35:51,559 --> 00:35:53,960
gonna look back on unless there's like a really big injury.

771
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,440
And I don't foresee them by the way they extend

772
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,480
to Jovic, So I don't see them being like, we

773
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,599
need to move Andrew Wiggins so we could his player

774
00:36:00,639 --> 00:36:03,360
option from the whatever. I think that this team understands

775
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,119
if they get another star is gonna happen via trade.

776
00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:08,519
So I don't think that they're gonna make that trade

777
00:36:08,559 --> 00:36:10,679
this season. I just think that they're gonna come together

778
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,360
to be a really solid basketball team. And finally, I

779
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,880
say this knowing that statistically their offense has been dollshit

780
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:17,599
in the preseason.

781
00:36:18,039 --> 00:36:21,039
Speaker 2: Well, so I think it's pretty clear over too. I'm

782
00:36:21,039 --> 00:36:22,360
not quite as high as you are. I have them

783
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:28,000
at forty, just five hundred. I think the offense can

784
00:36:28,039 --> 00:36:31,239
be in the on the high end, like the fifteen

785
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,280
to twenty range, and then the defense should be top ten,

786
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,880
and that's enough to be five hundred to me. I

787
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,039
like it's to get significantly below five hundred to hit

788
00:36:40,039 --> 00:36:43,119
the under here. I don't know what you're thinking beyond

789
00:36:43,159 --> 00:36:45,800
like a band other than like a BAM injury or something,

790
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,239
just because with you're getting full years.

791
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:50,519
Speaker 1: It knee the night we're recording this. By the way,

792
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:52,079
it's serious, but I.

793
00:36:52,079 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 2: Just I just want everyone to know I didn't know that,

794
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,159
and it happened before I say Grant.

795
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: Grant, much like me, does not watch games, so there

796
00:36:58,960 --> 00:36:59,840
was no way of him of knowing.

797
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 2: I manifested it accidentally. I just think full year of

798
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,199
Davion Mitchell, full year of Wiggins with plus BAM plus,

799
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,119
you can play like Pelo Larson's is gonna be fine.

800
00:37:09,159 --> 00:37:11,679
Like we There's eleven dudes on this team that I

801
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,719
think will all compete and beat value adds on one

802
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,719
end or the other. I do think there are issues

803
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,320
with like and this has been the case with the

804
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,960
Heat forever, where if you're trying to score that means

805
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,880
you're playing Hero and Norm Powell together. That backward defense

806
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,119
is gonna suck. Or if you want to just play

807
00:37:27,199 --> 00:37:29,800
your best defenders, get Davion Mitchell out there. I don't

808
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,280
believe in his shooting from last year. I think he's

809
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,679
gonna defend hard and be a you know, probably in

810
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,920
that positive player. But that's gonna be all on the

811
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,039
defensive side. It's gonna be difficult for them to feel

812
00:37:40,119 --> 00:37:42,440
lineups that are competent on both ends. They're gonna almost

813
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,280
have to pick and choose. I think that's just to

814
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,440
me what a five hundred team looks like, though, so

815
00:37:48,079 --> 00:37:50,760
thirty under thirty seven or fewer wins is hard to

816
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,440
get to, especially with like you said, this is like

817
00:37:53,519 --> 00:37:56,119
compared to last year. This is just a normal basketball

818
00:37:56,119 --> 00:37:58,840
team that Eric Bolster can coach how he wants without

819
00:37:58,880 --> 00:37:59,960
any kind of nonsense going on.

820
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,079
Speaker 1: This is not related in the slightest. But did you

821
00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:05,400
happen to take a look at that NBA GM survey.

822
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,639
I have not seen that yet, Dan, No, So twenty

823
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,559
nine gms because the heats GM can't front office can't

824
00:38:12,599 --> 00:38:15,960
vote for Bam. Twenty nine other GMS made votes for

825
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,320
the most versatile defender in the NBA. I'm not even

826
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,000
saying Bam needed to win, even though he'd be my pick, grant,

827
00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:24,960
he didn't receive a single vote. Isn't that absurd?

828
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 2: That's rough. I he's he's on the short, very short

829
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:33,519
lists of players you would nominate for that, right, Like, Yeah,

830
00:38:33,559 --> 00:38:34,039
that's that's what.

831
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:36,639
Speaker 1: I don't know. What happens with Dyson Daniels getting votes

832
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:37,119
was weird.

833
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,639
Speaker 2: Can't he can't guard centers, can't he isn't that part

834
00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:41,760
of being versatile like Dyson Daniels.

835
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't even know, Like, do you think

836
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:45,880
that it's just Bam has become So it feels like

837
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,159
he's become blah on offense to a lot of people,

838
00:38:48,159 --> 00:38:50,800
and they let that kind of infect their overall view

839
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,000
of him. So he come, these discussions come up and

840
00:38:53,039 --> 00:38:55,960
it's we're gonna go with the shiny new player, and

841
00:38:56,039 --> 00:38:58,599
I'm and Thompson, even a sar Thompson, who I love,

842
00:38:58,639 --> 00:39:03,119
gotta vote he was he's receiving votes. Yeah, like I'll

843
00:39:03,159 --> 00:39:05,880
listen to Jaron Jackson, I'll listen to Manti Kamara, I'll

844
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,599
listen to Draymond Green. Their names will listen to. But

845
00:39:08,639 --> 00:39:10,599
like I was, do not get a single vote?

846
00:39:11,199 --> 00:39:12,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfair.

847
00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: I gave the Heat an extra win just because I'll

848
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:17,280
take Milwaukee Dan.

849
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: They're over under his forty two and a half wins. Uh,

850
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:26,360
Just to recap Damian Lillard gone. They won forty eight

851
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,199
last year in large part because he was a very

852
00:39:29,199 --> 00:39:32,960
helpful offensive player. Myles Turner in also a very helpful

853
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:37,960
offensive player, different position everywhere else on this roster. Man

854
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,519
there's a lot of minimum guys it's like Kyle Kuzma

855
00:39:40,559 --> 00:39:43,440
sprinkled in there. Who's the bucks third best player?

856
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: Damian Lillard's dead cap hit.

857
00:39:46,119 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard, right, Like I don't know Gary Trent.

858
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,559
I'm sure Aj Green Ryan Rollins because he's such a

859
00:39:53,559 --> 00:39:57,880
good defender and everyone thinks he's gonna pop. I don't

860
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,360
even remember what I did. Okay, let's pull up a

861
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,800
numbers here. I went under by the slimmest of margins.

862
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,239
I went forty two. You went over forty three, slimmest

863
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,760
of margins. This is just Giannis is great. Right that

864
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,599
that's like kind of the end of my analysis because

865
00:40:10,599 --> 00:40:12,920
I don't believe in almost anything else other than Turner

866
00:40:13,039 --> 00:40:14,559
is a good fit next to him.

867
00:40:14,559 --> 00:40:18,159
Speaker 1: Right, And it's it's also it's we're so close, we

868
00:40:18,159 --> 00:40:22,039
were within a win. Honestly, it is borderline reckless having

869
00:40:22,079 --> 00:40:25,239
them over forty at this point because they're just like

870
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,400
one Yannis twisted ankle away from being the third worst

871
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,639
team in the East. But the other thing is we

872
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:34,480
haven't talked about the rumor from Shams that he wanted

873
00:40:34,519 --> 00:40:37,239
to go to the Knicks over the offseason, which shout

874
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,960
out me. Obviously. That's first and foremost, but second of all,

875
00:40:41,559 --> 00:40:43,440
Doc Rivers had come out and said like, oh, that

876
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,039
felt kind of like a Ukabe initial report, and so

877
00:40:46,079 --> 00:40:49,360
you expanded upon the reporting of it. No, Giannis is

878
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,920
just saying all these things. He doesn't remember a discussion

879
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,159
he had with your owner. He's talked about how he

880
00:40:54,159 --> 00:40:56,719
could change his mind in the future. You needed to

881
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,719
sign his entire family tree to some sort of NBA

882
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:03,280
con to keep him happy. And the biggest justification for

883
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,039
the Alex Attenta Cupo signing is well, he's been on

884
00:41:06,079 --> 00:41:09,599
the herd for a while. That doesn't change on the herd,

885
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,280
it's not until to hit. Some people think he's a

886
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,079
legitimate prospect, that's fine, but like you guaranteed to NASA's

887
00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:19,079
sustent to Coupo's contract, it's just there's I don't think

888
00:41:19,119 --> 00:41:21,079
he gets traded mid season because that would just be

889
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,000
so hard to work. We did just see Luca Dontrich

890
00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:26,360
and Anthony Davis get traded in the same transaction though,

891
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,280
so maybe not mid season. But I'm just it's almost

892
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,039
reckless of me to say like they're gonna have a

893
00:41:31,079 --> 00:41:35,719
winning record, even though Giannis has like wandering eyes to

894
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,639
the up teams degree, the only thing that you can

895
00:41:37,679 --> 00:41:39,599
cling to. And I don't mean to make this all

896
00:41:39,599 --> 00:41:41,639
about the trade. Is he kind of said, like, no,

897
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,280
you think about your future right up until the start

898
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,519
of the regular season and then you stop. So I

899
00:41:46,559 --> 00:41:49,840
respect that, but I also think that like low key,

900
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,360
like he's the biggest troll in the NBA with the

901
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,719
way that he kind of runs the tables on his

902
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,480
future and it's just he openly flip flops. There's a

903
00:41:57,519 --> 00:41:59,280
part of me that respects it. And then is also

904
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,719
just this feels like a ticking time bomb at this point.

905
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 2: And I mean, the practical side of what you're talking

906
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:11,519
about is that his actions have put the Bucks in

907
00:42:11,599 --> 00:42:16,320
position where they've just mortgaged their future over and over

908
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,800
and over again to try to keep him happy. And

909
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:23,199
the result is Yannis Dame, dead, cap hit, Miles Turner,

910
00:42:23,679 --> 00:42:27,119
and one of the worst rosters in the league outside

911
00:42:27,119 --> 00:42:28,960
of those guys. Right, Like, this is a team where

912
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,079
you said it like a Yannis injury, it's tweaked ankle.

913
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,440
Milwaukee's drawing dead every night, like they just they they're

914
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,800
not gonna win games if he's not there, and he's

915
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,119
going to miss time because he's getting older, and it's

916
00:42:41,159 --> 00:42:45,760
just he does. So the fact that we're both over

917
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,800
five hundred is really just a testament to he's one

918
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,880
of the five best players in the league, and when

919
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,920
he's available, the Bucks can beat anybody because he's great

920
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,800
and like end of analysis. I mean, I don't want

921
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:58,280
to put words in your mouth, but that's really sort

922
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,079
of where I'm at. Here's my question to you.

923
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: What's more likely they get to forty eight or more

924
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,800
wins or Jannis gets traded by the February fifth dead line?

925
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:14,199
Speaker 2: Uh Yiannis gets traded. I just don't see. I don't

926
00:43:14,199 --> 00:43:16,599
see a forty eight win team here, even if Jannis

927
00:43:16,639 --> 00:43:19,079
is very, very healthy, I don't know how you get there.

928
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 1: Next up, we have your New York Knicks. They are

929
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,559
a fifty two and a half. How do you feeling

930
00:43:26,559 --> 00:43:27,280
about that number?

931
00:43:27,639 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 2: You'll be delighted to know. I think they will win

932
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:31,880
more than fifty two and a half game stand.

933
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, but is it fewer than seventy, because then I'm

934
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:34,280
going to be.

935
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 2: A little fewer, a little bit less. I have them

936
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,519
fifty three, you have met fifty seven. I don't know

937
00:43:38,599 --> 00:43:39,480
fifty five.

938
00:43:40,159 --> 00:43:41,519
Speaker 1: Let's fifty five?

939
00:43:41,559 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: Sorry, I looked at the twenty seven there, fifty five

940
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:47,280
for you, fifty three for me. We're both over. I

941
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,440
think there's I think this could go into the high

942
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,440
fifties if they want to. I don't know if they do.

943
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,320
But if the number one seed is there and Cleveland

944
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,119
is worse than we think at that fifty six and

945
00:43:58,119 --> 00:44:00,199
a half number, who knows, they might push for it.

946
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,599
I just think they're better, They're deeper. They you know,

947
00:44:03,679 --> 00:44:06,719
if Mitch Robinson is fully healthy and plays as much

948
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:10,400
as he can, Mike Brown's gonna deploy this team, maybe

949
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:14,280
more sensibly than Tom Thibodeau did. I don't know. I

950
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,440
feel pretty good about the over even though I'm very

951
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,320
close to it. Is there, though, Dan like part of

952
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,920
the switch from Tibbs to Mike Brown is he's not

953
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,000
gonna run his best players into the ground, and that's

954
00:44:26,039 --> 00:44:28,800
going to lower your regular season win total ceiling. Is

955
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,639
that something to think about or is just the overall

956
00:44:31,639 --> 00:44:33,559
package better so they'll win more.

957
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,159
Speaker 1: I think that's actually fair to consider, and I don't

958
00:44:37,159 --> 00:44:40,239
believe that they're actually as deep as people are making

959
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:42,320
them out. I just feel like Jordan Clarkson at the

960
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,079
minimum is getting a lot of more love than he

961
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:50,039
like warrants. What I will say though, is like watching

962
00:44:50,039 --> 00:44:52,719
them in the preseason, there are two things that really

963
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,960
stand out. They are gonna get to Douce McBride plus

964
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,800
the other four starters units. It won't be the starting lineup,

965
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:00,679
even though I think it should be. They're gonna get

966
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,039
to it. They're also gonna get to other five out units,

967
00:45:03,199 --> 00:45:05,800
like with the bench where like Ershon Yabuseli and Karmafi

968
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,239
Towns are playing together, or maybe it's just Yabucelli at

969
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:14,159
the five, and they're also so Last season six, about

970
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,000
six seven percent of the Knicks's minutes came in what

971
00:45:17,039 --> 00:45:20,519
would be called three guard lineups. That number is I

972
00:45:20,559 --> 00:45:24,639
think gonna triple. And that's gonna increase your number of

973
00:45:24,679 --> 00:45:29,320
five outlooks. And yes you'll be smaller, but like you're

974
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,480
gonna be way more versatile on the offensive end. Then,

975
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,920
and I think that they telegraph this. We've seen it

976
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,079
in the preseason, but I think they telegraphed this by

977
00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:39,519
saying we want two of Landry Shammick, Gareth and Matthews

978
00:45:39,519 --> 00:45:44,199
and Malcolm Brogdon on this roster. I think that spells

979
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,639
good things for their offense. I still don't know what

980
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,559
to make of the Karl Anthony Towns needs to spend

981
00:45:48,559 --> 00:45:50,159
a lot of time a power forward when the whole

982
00:45:50,199 --> 00:45:52,639
idea of him is as a floors basing five. I

983
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,880
really like the concept of og Ananobi and Mike Brown's offense,

984
00:45:56,199 --> 00:45:58,519
the fact that they're playing faster, they are getting up

985
00:45:58,559 --> 00:46:02,079
more threes. I think that there's I don't know that

986
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,320
I feel comfortable saying that they could beat X amount

987
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,280
of teams in a seven game series, Like, you know,

988
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,119
how do they match up with Cleveland, how they match

989
00:46:09,199 --> 00:46:10,719
up with Okay, see how they match up with Denver,

990
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,119
those elite teams. But I really think that this is

991
00:46:13,119 --> 00:46:15,039
a team that doesn't need to run its players into

992
00:46:15,079 --> 00:46:17,480
the ground and is gonna be deployed in such a

993
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:20,679
way on the offensive end that they're gonna be so

994
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,000
good and that if they wanted to, they could get

995
00:46:23,079 --> 00:46:25,480
to sixty, but that there will be some pullback there

996
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,719
and just even just a couple other notes like McHale

997
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,840
bridges seems like they are because there's some extra spacing there,

998
00:46:32,119 --> 00:46:34,320
getting all the way into the paint on his drives

999
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,960
and not bailing out. There's just I think there's gonna

1000
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,599
be a lot of smaller things or medium sized things

1001
00:46:39,639 --> 00:46:41,920
that they get better at that are going to help

1002
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,280
them just be in the mid fifties while having Okay,

1003
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:48,039
Jayalen runs in, it's not gonna be you know, Mchal

1004
00:46:48,079 --> 00:46:50,920
Bridges is playing forty seven minutes in a thirty point

1005
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,320
win over the Hornets in January or whatever it is.

1006
00:46:53,559 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do you think it's fair to say that

1007
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,920
under fifty. I know it's not the over runner, but

1008
00:46:59,199 --> 00:47:02,440
if they win in the forties, something happened, right, Like

1009
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:06,199
this is just a fifty win because of the high

1010
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,920
end talent, the way they'll be coached, and even though

1011
00:47:09,159 --> 00:47:11,960
I agree maybe the depth is overblown, but like this

1012
00:47:12,039 --> 00:47:15,280
is a fifty win team. They have to win over fifty, right.

1013
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:18,199
Speaker 1: I think there's like a lot riding on this season.

1014
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:20,679
I don't know if there's If you count the number

1015
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,039
of teams that have the most on the line this

1016
00:47:23,119 --> 00:47:25,519
year to where you could see their roster like really

1017
00:47:25,679 --> 00:47:29,280
being changed, it's the Knicks, that Cavs, and like maybe

1018
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:33,599
the Nuggets, but like not really Minnesota. Perhaps, so the

1019
00:47:33,679 --> 00:47:35,719
Knicks are just like they need to be in the fifties.

1020
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,159
They need to make I won't go as far as

1021
00:47:38,199 --> 00:47:40,159
the NBA Finals. They need to do better in the

1022
00:47:40,159 --> 00:47:42,639
Eastern Conference Finals than they did last year. It's it's

1023
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,280
high stakes. What's interesting about them, though, Grant is I

1024
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,880
think that they're shallower than people are saying. But I

1025
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,559
also kind of feel like they're in a situation where's

1026
00:47:50,559 --> 00:47:53,119
they only have one player they can't lose, And I

1027
00:47:53,159 --> 00:47:55,599
think you could even say, if you did lose John

1028
00:47:55,599 --> 00:47:58,960
Brunton for a spell, like you could probably carve out

1029
00:47:59,119 --> 00:48:02,599
enough offense with Bridges and Ananobi and Duced McBride in

1030
00:48:02,639 --> 00:48:04,039
a Mike Brown system.

1031
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,519
Speaker 2: You could break even I think I think that's the over.

1032
00:48:06,599 --> 00:48:08,280
You know, if you've lost them for ten games, that's

1033
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:09,119
not out of the question.

1034
00:48:09,559 --> 00:48:11,199
Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of them on defense,

1035
00:48:11,199 --> 00:48:12,360
by the way, would be the other like if you

1036
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:13,679
were trying if we were trying to make the case

1037
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,400
for the under sid from injuries, it's okay the Mitchell

1038
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,920
Robinson minutes, Sure, yeah, But I just don't know, Like

1039
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,719
I don't know the defense. I feel like a lot

1040
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,159
of people are just kind of penciling it in for

1041
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,519
like fifteenth or sixteenth, and I think if you can

1042
00:48:26,519 --> 00:48:29,000
get to a point where they're saying they're gonna use

1043
00:48:29,039 --> 00:48:31,559
mckal bridges, not at the point of attack, away from

1044
00:48:31,599 --> 00:48:34,320
the ball more. That's if you're able to do that,

1045
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:35,840
that's probably the best recipe for it.

1046
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 2: I'm actually more concerned with their playoff defense than regular

1047
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,440
season because I can't get what Andrew said on the

1048
00:48:43,119 --> 00:48:45,719
look Ahead we did out of my head about what

1049
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:49,199
if Atlanta just spams picking rolls against Brunson and kat

1050
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,400
like in a playoff series or hunts those two? How

1051
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:52,760
do you what do you do?

1052
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: Like?

1053
00:48:53,039 --> 00:48:55,599
Speaker 2: That's not a regular season thing, because nobody's like scouting

1054
00:48:55,599 --> 00:48:57,880
you to within an inch of your life and using

1055
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,119
their absolute A plus option against you over and over.

1056
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,519
That's a playoff thing, So that I am concerned about,

1057
00:49:04,559 --> 00:49:07,280
But it doesn't affect their regular season win total for me.

1058
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,599
Speaker 1: Well, all right, but then also we have to kind

1059
00:49:09,599 --> 00:49:13,639
of factor in that February Yanish trade. That'll probably give

1060
00:49:13,679 --> 00:49:15,000
them a nice little bump, right.

1061
00:49:15,159 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: So just like you pull the clip this and we'll

1062
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,960
come back and we'll redo it after they trade for him.

1063
00:49:22,159 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 1: Who's up next?

1064
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,800
Speaker 2: Orlando Magic kind of along with Atlanta, but almost to

1065
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,760
a greater extent, like the Riser in the East. I

1066
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,519
would say they're over. Under is fifty and a half,

1067
00:49:33,599 --> 00:49:38,280
added Desmond Bain, added Tyas Jones, Pallo Banker, and Franz Wagner.

1068
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,920
Still definitely young enough to improve. Hopefully Jalen sugg is healthier.

1069
00:49:42,679 --> 00:49:44,719
That is a very good number. It was not good

1070
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,519
enough for either of us to go over. We've got

1071
00:49:47,559 --> 00:49:51,280
them both at a matching forty nine wins. I will

1072
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,639
just say that Jalen Suggs not being ready to start

1073
00:49:53,639 --> 00:49:57,840
the season is a huge concern for me because that's

1074
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,519
not someone Tyas Jones does not replace him. That's not

1075
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,559
Anthony Black does not replace him. Desmond Bain is a

1076
00:50:03,559 --> 00:50:07,440
good facilitator for a two he does doesn't replace him,

1077
00:50:08,039 --> 00:50:10,559
So that's a that's a big deal for me. I

1078
00:50:10,599 --> 00:50:13,639
think Suggs is one of the most important starters on

1079
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,920
any like you know, of the good teams in the East,

1080
00:50:18,079 --> 00:50:21,920
and that injury has has me a little worried. I

1081
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:23,960
like basically everything else they do. I think their defense

1082
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,400
will be good. I think Polo should be better. Uh,

1083
00:50:26,599 --> 00:50:29,239
forty nine wins is what eight more than last year.

1084
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,840
So this is not to say that we don't like Orlando.

1085
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:34,800
I think we both have them third in the conference.

1086
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,519
But for me, it's the Suggs thing, and for me

1087
00:50:37,599 --> 00:50:39,960
it's I'd still like to see Franz Wagner prove he

1088
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,239
can shoot a three, uh, and really Pollo for that

1089
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:43,000
matter too.

1090
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,199
Speaker 1: Also, I mean, Jace Richardson can shoot threes.

1091
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: Maybe he's gonna play. I think he's he's really gonna

1092
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:51,039
he's gonna matter.

1093
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 1: He honestly, he's probably gonna usurp Ties Jones in rotation

1094
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,159
at some point. I would think my thing with them

1095
00:50:57,599 --> 00:51:01,960
is their secondary or because their secondary wing depth is

1096
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,360
not great, Like you're trusting no Apenda, like there's a

1097
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,639
lot riding on Tristan de Silva. They still don't have

1098
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:09,639
enough shooting on this team. You kind of alluded to

1099
00:51:09,679 --> 00:51:11,599
it with the Suggs injury, but the fact that young

1100
00:51:11,679 --> 00:51:14,199
Suggs has had one really good shooting season where he's

1101
00:51:14,199 --> 00:51:16,639
also been healthy one and he's been the league for

1102
00:51:16,679 --> 00:51:20,159
four years. So it's just like we're just assuming that

1103
00:51:20,199 --> 00:51:22,480
Desmond Bane's enough and then Tires Jones enough, even though

1104
00:51:22,519 --> 00:51:24,519
we kind of know that Tiers Jones isn't gonna play

1105
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,599
that many minutes. If Jamal Moseley continues his mo of

1106
00:51:27,639 --> 00:51:30,360
favoring the guys who are going to give you more defense,

1107
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,960
So fifteen and a half is just high. And then

1108
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,239
also how many minutes and games can Jonathan Isaac play

1109
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,119
in Wendell Carter Junior feels like he's due to deal

1110
00:51:40,559 --> 00:51:43,159
with something. I don't think. You don't worry about Palo

1111
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,639
and Franz specifically, but the Franz thing on offense, I

1112
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,440
just don't like. I think he needs to shoot threes

1113
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,519
because he's the one that's playing the more traditional wing

1114
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,360
wing position. At this point, still going to be a

1115
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:57,360
really good team, and I actually think that they're as

1116
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:00,719
constructed right now without making any other moves or caking

1117
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,639
in any leaps from someone we're not accounting for. They're

1118
00:52:04,159 --> 00:52:07,480
a scarier playoff team than they are a regular season team,

1119
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:09,760
which I feel like maybe you should flip flop, because

1120
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:11,480
don't a lot of people think that like uggling it

1121
00:52:11,559 --> 00:52:13,280
up and playing elite defense is a way to win

1122
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,519
a bunch of games in the regular season. Just based

1123
00:52:15,559 --> 00:52:17,800
off what we've seen from them in the playoffs so far,

1124
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:20,800
every team that's played them has sort of felt them.

1125
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,119
And so if you just have Desmond Baine scoring and

1126
00:52:23,119 --> 00:52:26,159
shooting through the muck. I think it makes you a

1127
00:52:26,199 --> 00:52:28,679
lot more dangerous there than in a regular season setting.

1128
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: But we'll say, what do you think about this idea

1129
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,960
that like, well, I don't know, I'm trying to tear

1130
00:52:36,079 --> 00:52:39,320
the East here, and I think if you told if

1131
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:44,039
I told you that Suggs is gonna play sixty games

1132
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:49,360
and the other four starters Baane, Benkaro, Wagner, and I

1133
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,239
assume Wendell Carter Junior, also Wendell Carter Junior is not

1134
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:55,840
gonna shoot like twelve percent from three. Again, if all

1135
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,519
those guys play sixty plus, this team is way closer

1136
00:52:59,519 --> 00:53:01,360
to the New York or Cleveland tier than it is

1137
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,280
to like the Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee tier in the East. Right,

1138
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,679
It's like they're they kind of belong up there with

1139
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:11,280
those guys if they get decent health from all the

1140
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,760
key guys you know in the I don't know, top

1141
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:15,039
seven or eight of the rotation.

1142
00:53:15,639 --> 00:53:17,559
Speaker 1: I think I'm with you because what you said earlier

1143
00:53:17,599 --> 00:53:19,440
in the podcast about what if they're not I don't

1144
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,519
think they're on the same level right now's better? But

1145
00:53:21,559 --> 00:53:23,639
you just said, like what if Evan Moble just gets better,

1146
00:53:23,679 --> 00:53:27,000
and like he's like the sixty seven wins superstar Pallo

1147
00:53:27,159 --> 00:53:29,519
has that type of ceiling. It's really just for him.

1148
00:53:29,519 --> 00:53:32,400
It's oh, did he take five three pointers a game

1149
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,440
and hit thirty seven percent of them? And then it's oh,

1150
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:38,320
crap the other the one. The final thing too, that

1151
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,039
worries me about the scene is I guess it's very

1152
00:53:40,039 --> 00:53:42,920
clear that they're just never still gonna get out and transition.

1153
00:53:43,039 --> 00:53:46,599
That is that just disallowed in Orlando. I don't understand it.

1154
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 2: Also, you talked about kind of a make or break

1155
00:53:49,559 --> 00:53:51,800
or pivotal like this is kind of a Jamal Moseley,

1156
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:54,519
what do you got that season? Because the talent's there

1157
00:53:54,639 --> 00:53:58,039
now uh and and I think if if it's proven

1158
00:53:58,079 --> 00:54:00,239
again that like he gets guys to play hard and

1159
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,559
he's got a defensive scheme that works, but the offense

1160
00:54:02,639 --> 00:54:05,239
is just not like up to par for what the

1161
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:08,000
talent needs it to be. He might be somebody that's

1162
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:08,440
not back.

1163
00:54:09,079 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 1: I will say we didn't have this as a category,

1164
00:54:11,079 --> 00:54:13,119
but if I was to pick my least confident bet,

1165
00:54:13,639 --> 00:54:15,800
I think this would be it because you could you

1166
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:18,079
laid out the case or this team is winning in

1167
00:54:18,079 --> 00:54:19,079
the mid fifties, but.

1168
00:54:19,159 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 2: For sure Yeah, it's a very scary under, but I

1169
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,840
think we've I think there's real reasons to go under

1170
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:25,480
though by a tiny bit.

1171
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 1: We are also a fearless people at this podcast we have.

1172
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:33,519
This is fucked it. Do we even have to do this?

1173
00:54:33,559 --> 00:54:35,719
I like, the Sixers are forty two and a half

1174
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:38,679
and here I want to preface everything that we're about

1175
00:54:38,679 --> 00:54:40,960
to talk about with this is that they're either gonna

1176
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,880
win twelve games or sixty. There's just no in between

1177
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,239
for that. There's just no in between for the cities.

1178
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,920
Is there? What is the scenario on which they get

1179
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:53,360
to forties? I just don't like it comes down to

1180
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:55,280
how many games do you think Joel Embiid and Paul

1181
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,880
George are gonna play in? To me, yeah that's it.

1182
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 2: And guess what nobody knows. So like, I feel like

1183
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,880
this over under just splits the difference in what you're

1184
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,360
talking about. Like this, the ceiling and the floor are

1185
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:11,159
so far apart. We both again, this is another ridiculous

1186
00:55:11,159 --> 00:55:13,159
when we both had him at forty two, which I

1187
00:55:13,199 --> 00:55:15,840
think I can imagine. It's just at the same time

1188
00:55:16,079 --> 00:55:18,280
across the country, we both just like threw our hands

1189
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,400
up and we're like I don't know, man, whatever, and

1190
00:55:20,519 --> 00:55:21,159
like that's real.

1191
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,760
Speaker 1: Weren't you hope? I really was hoping they were gonna

1192
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,400
be like a thirty six and a half or something

1193
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,920
that felt a little bit or like a forty nine,

1194
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:30,719
like something that forty seven and a half or forty

1195
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:32,760
seven thirty six and a half. That would have made

1196
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:37,360
it easier because what is okay, they get the forty

1197
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,280
two wins? How many games do you think Joelle Embiid

1198
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,239
needs to play in for them to be exactly forty two?

1199
00:55:43,599 --> 00:55:46,840
Because if he plays in like sixty five, there's no

1200
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,079
way they're just a forty two win team.

1201
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,760
Speaker 2: Right, because that would if he's playing that often, it's

1202
00:55:52,079 --> 00:55:54,320
a pretty good bet that he's actually looking pretty good

1203
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,880
and playing not like he's played the last year. So right, like,

1204
00:55:58,159 --> 00:56:01,079
if he plays that much, he's probably gonna be pretty good,

1205
00:56:01,519 --> 00:56:04,480
and so they'll blow this number away because he'll just

1206
00:56:04,519 --> 00:56:06,480
be like an all NBA version of himself.

1207
00:56:06,639 --> 00:56:09,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, so even sixty if you said he played,

1208
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:10,840
because he's not gonna playhim back to back, So there

1209
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,519
goes like fifteen or sixteen games whatever right off the bat.

1210
00:56:14,119 --> 00:56:17,079
So if he plays him fifty five or sixty, like

1211
00:56:17,079 --> 00:56:19,400
don't you just assume they're a forty two win team.

1212
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:21,599
Speaker 2: I think there might be better than that. I'm assaying

1213
00:56:21,639 --> 00:56:23,360
he's gonna play in like thirty or forty.

1214
00:56:23,679 --> 00:56:27,039
Speaker 1: You know that, I think so. I'm trying to figure

1215
00:56:27,039 --> 00:56:28,559
out what would be the case to go how many

1216
00:56:28,599 --> 00:56:30,719
games does Joelle and Be need to play in for

1217
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:33,199
you to have been Oh, I'm gonna go with the over.

1218
00:56:35,039 --> 00:56:36,599
Speaker 2: I mean, sixty would definitely do it.

1219
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 1: Forty fifty and my.

1220
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 2: Pats tempting to say forty two just for some symmetry.

1221
00:56:42,639 --> 00:56:47,519
I he's he needs to play at least half the season,

1222
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:51,599
so forty one for them to get to forty two wins. No,

1223
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:53,440
I don't know. Do you see what I'm saying though?

1224
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:56,599
About how like, if if he plays, if he plays,

1225
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:58,679
let's just use that forty one. If he only plays

1226
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:03,360
forty one games, I would assume that means that there's

1227
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:06,599
a there's fits and starts to him coming back. He

1228
00:57:06,639 --> 00:57:08,400
does the thing where he plays a couple games, Oh,

1229
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,079
there's niece soreness, he misses two weeks. He's terrible for

1230
00:57:12,119 --> 00:57:14,000
the first three games, and then he looks like himself,

1231
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:15,639
and then he tweaks something and he's in and out

1232
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,599
so like he needs to. But if he plays sixty five,

1233
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,840
that means he had prolonged stretches of what I assume

1234
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,400
is gonna be like pretty Embiid like play. So if

1235
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,400
he's at that number, like yeah, they win fifty or whatever,

1236
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:32,880
fifty whatever it is right and then honestly, like the

1237
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:34,920
Paul George of it all like doesn't really matter that

1238
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:36,880
much to me. I think, I think at this stage

1239
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,719
of his career, like he's not an All Star anymore,

1240
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,760
so it's like you can't tie. It'd be like tying

1241
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,719
the Heat's success to like Andrew Wiggins or something that's

1242
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:48,079
maybe a bit of a slight but it's like, I'm

1243
00:57:48,119 --> 00:57:50,920
not expecting All star play from Paul George. He's a

1244
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,559
really good player, but like Tyres Maxie matters more right,

1245
00:57:54,639 --> 00:57:58,440
like HEAs just I think pretty clearly. So yeah, I

1246
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:00,000
don't know this is I don't know what else is

1247
00:58:00,039 --> 00:58:02,000
say about this team, just like we agreed they could

1248
00:58:02,079 --> 00:58:05,440
win next to nothing or they could be second in

1249
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:07,599
the East, like and anything in between.

1250
00:58:08,119 --> 00:58:11,119
Speaker 1: If you were evaluating this team completely without Joel Embiid,

1251
00:58:11,199 --> 00:58:16,920
what would their ceiling be? Is it either the ceiling

1252
00:58:17,079 --> 00:58:20,039
my question, So you know Joel Ebe is not gonna

1253
00:58:20,039 --> 00:58:23,840
play at all? Can they even get to forty to

1254
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:24,480
five hundred?

1255
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:31,239
Speaker 2: I think this roster without Joel Embiid is probably like

1256
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:35,360
is it worse than Milwaukee's just if you get Paul

1257
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:40,039
Georgia and you yeah, they've got more talent, I think,

1258
00:58:40,119 --> 00:58:44,199
right vj Edgecomb, Yeah, there's more I saw. I'd say

1259
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,599
it's funny like with or without Embiid, I might have

1260
00:58:46,719 --> 00:58:49,360
their by their window to like right around forty two,

1261
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:51,599
what is happening when you leave this team alone?

1262
00:58:52,199 --> 00:58:54,199
Speaker 1: You right? But you pointed out in the middle of

1263
00:58:54,199 --> 00:58:56,079
it to where it's if he's only playing in like

1264
00:58:56,119 --> 00:58:59,079
a middle rung number of games, it's the stop and

1265
00:58:59,119 --> 00:59:01,239
start of it all that due to his rhythm everyone

1266
00:59:01,239 --> 00:59:04,239
else's rhythm. And they've talked about like trying to install

1267
00:59:04,239 --> 00:59:07,079
an offense that's not as reliant and Joel Embiid or

1268
00:59:07,079 --> 00:59:08,960
he's playing a different way, So does that make them

1269
00:59:09,599 --> 00:59:11,880
better equipped to deal with him going in and out

1270
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,639
of the line. It feels a little Pelicans with Zion.

1271
00:59:14,719 --> 00:59:16,360
He remember when it felt like they were building their

1272
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,280
team to where it's we need to be good in

1273
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:20,400
the event that he doesn't play rather than we need

1274
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,480
to maximize. It's not as stark for sure in Philly,

1275
00:59:23,519 --> 00:59:25,920
because I think a lot of the talent can compliment him.

1276
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,400
I also like, are they gonna be better? They'll be

1277
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,239
better offensively than defensively, I think because it's who's the

1278
00:59:32,239 --> 00:59:35,199
wing they have justin Edwards and Edgecomb and like who

1279
00:59:35,199 --> 00:59:37,360
are their wing defenders? What is Paul George doing? The

1280
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:39,800
backup center rotation? Is kind of if he.

1281
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 2: The Quentin Grimes of it all? Who like what's his yeah,

1282
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,440
commitment level gonna be? How like what is role gonna be?

1283
00:59:48,519 --> 00:59:51,880
Who knows this is a confounding team. We're both under

1284
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:53,480
We don't feel confident about anything.

1285
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:56,079
Speaker 1: Who is next up?

1286
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,559
Speaker 2: A Toronto? The over under for the Toronto Raptors is

1287
00:59:59,599 --> 01:00:03,199
thirty eight and a half wins. Uh quick recap. They

1288
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:05,280
have a lot of very talented players and none of

1289
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,480
them seem to fit well together. Uh, they'll start quickly

1290
01:00:08,519 --> 01:00:12,400
beart Ingram Barnes and Yaka Perle. Shooting is going to

1291
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,800
be a challenge. I think they should be a pretty

1292
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,159
good defensive team, like maybe even a very good defensive team,

1293
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:20,840
and then they also depend this is this number is

1294
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:22,880
complicated by the fact that, like there's a lot of

1295
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:27,400
young and even unproven guys that will have rotation roles

1296
01:00:27,519 --> 01:00:29,280
and we don't even we're not even sure like which

1297
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,480
ones that'll be of the like Grady Dick, Jacobe Walter

1298
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:35,400
Jamal like Shed Mobo, Like there's.

1299
01:00:35,199 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 1: Colin Murray Boyle.

1300
01:00:36,039 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 2: Is gonna callin Murray Boyles? Like what where does he

1301
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:40,239
fit into this? Like he fits very well in some

1302
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:43,800
of the wrong ways with with like how skews talent wise,

1303
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:48,000
you know. So, yeah, so let's just put the numbers up.

1304
01:00:48,599 --> 01:00:51,760
I've got them going over this at forty one and

1305
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,159
forty one, and you've got them beating it by more

1306
01:00:54,199 --> 01:00:57,920
at forty three and thirty nine. Why it figures it out, man,

1307
01:00:58,239 --> 01:01:00,599
that's what you're I mean, that's not that's not like

1308
01:01:00,639 --> 01:01:01,480
the wrong approach.

1309
01:01:02,199 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it is is that the

1310
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,840
two things actually it's the same for both players, even

1311
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,519
three of their players. I think perception is just veered

1312
01:01:09,559 --> 01:01:13,639
too far away from positive with Scottie Barnes and Manuel

1313
01:01:13,719 --> 01:01:17,000
Quickly and Brandon Ingram. Brand Ingram shot more threes last

1314
01:01:17,079 --> 01:01:19,360
year before he was injured. There's value in having what

1315
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:21,559
he does on the ball. I also look at how RJ.

1316
01:01:21,719 --> 01:01:26,159
Barrett's usage type changed when he came to Toronto. Are

1317
01:01:26,159 --> 01:01:28,559
you telling me Brendan Ingram's incapable of being used in

1318
01:01:28,559 --> 01:01:30,280
a similar capacity. Now, if you're telling me that he's

1319
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:32,719
not gonna be able to do anything off the ball,

1320
01:01:33,159 --> 01:01:34,760
or that he's going to not even be able to

1321
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:36,760
catch the ball with like running in ahead of steam,

1322
01:01:37,119 --> 01:01:40,599
let's have a different conversation. But then there's still Emmanuel Quickly,

1323
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,679
one of the most lethal off ball and on ball

1324
01:01:43,719 --> 01:01:46,559
shooters in the league. Now there needs to be some

1325
01:01:46,719 --> 01:01:49,000
change with his drives. Can he facilitate better, can he

1326
01:01:49,039 --> 01:01:50,639
get deeper into the paint, and if he doesn't, can

1327
01:01:50,679 --> 01:01:53,199
the float or at least begin to fall. Scottie Barnes,

1328
01:01:53,239 --> 01:01:55,599
what does the shooting look like. Scotty Barnes is a

1329
01:01:55,599 --> 01:01:57,400
really good player. And then as you kind of mentioned,

1330
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:01,079
there's a chance that they can be borderline defensive monsters

1331
01:02:01,079 --> 01:02:03,079
like I think Calin Murray Boyles could come if he

1332
01:02:03,119 --> 01:02:05,719
was gonna be a regular rotation players rookie, and he'll

1333
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:09,159
just be excellent on defense right off the bat, which

1334
01:02:09,199 --> 01:02:11,440
we've kind of seen more players of his archetype come

1335
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,519
in as rookies and just leave like this huge dent

1336
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:16,679
on the defensive end. There's a ton of talent here,

1337
01:02:16,719 --> 01:02:19,400
so it's some of it's ill fitting, but none of

1338
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:23,320
it feels like it's fatally flawed. And you would for

1339
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,480
me to now this is one of the numbers where

1340
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,599
it's you could talk me into the under without maybe

1341
01:02:28,639 --> 01:02:31,599
going into injuries. But you're kind of saying that brandon

1342
01:02:31,719 --> 01:02:34,800
Ingram has no hope of making waves on this team.

1343
01:02:34,880 --> 01:02:37,480
And you look at the some of the base lineups

1344
01:02:37,719 --> 01:02:41,599
when they've on the rare occasions we've seen Scottie, Barnes,

1345
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:46,239
Peerl and Emmanuel quickly play together like they've been really good.

1346
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,920
So you're adding brandon Ingram into that equation, and it's

1347
01:02:49,559 --> 01:02:51,800
why why do you get worse in that scenario?

1348
01:02:52,320 --> 01:02:54,599
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a really smart way to look

1349
01:02:54,639 --> 01:02:57,440
at it, because maybe I'm just telling on myself, but like,

1350
01:02:58,119 --> 01:02:59,840
I don't know why it is. But when it comes

1351
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,639
to the Raptors, we're all just focusing on like what

1352
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,719
they're very good players don't do well, you know, like

1353
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,360
all brandon Ingram doesn't shoot enough threes and he doesn't defend.

1354
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:11,920
He's very screenable Scotty Barnes can't shoot quickly, can't say

1355
01:03:12,239 --> 01:03:14,960
like all those guys are just like no questions asked

1356
01:03:15,039 --> 01:03:18,400
NBA starters and like Barnes and quickly have upside right,

1357
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:20,599
Like I just I think, I don't know why it is,

1358
01:03:20,639 --> 01:03:23,239
but it's just so much easier to focus on the

1359
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,679
poor fit and like the couple of deficiencies that these

1360
01:03:26,679 --> 01:03:30,440
guys have, We're like, they're all really good. It's and

1361
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:33,000
I think, you know, talent maybe will figure it out.

1362
01:03:33,039 --> 01:03:36,239
And what if Scott again definitely not the mobile level,

1363
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:39,000
probably not the Bankaro level, but what if Scotty Barnes

1364
01:03:39,079 --> 01:03:42,199
just levels up and he just becomes a legitimate star,

1365
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:45,519
Like that's absolutely in the like, that's in the realm

1366
01:03:45,599 --> 01:03:46,320
of possibility.

1367
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:49,159
Speaker 1: This season, what's interesting is it feels like so much

1368
01:03:49,199 --> 01:03:51,239
of the concern in part because that's where so much

1369
01:03:51,239 --> 01:03:53,239
of the talent is, but is rooted in what's happening

1370
01:03:53,239 --> 01:03:55,159
on the perimeter. And then I look at the center

1371
01:03:55,239 --> 01:03:58,480
rotation and Yaka Purtle is a good player, but his

1372
01:03:59,239 --> 01:04:02,960
utility feels very context driven, and I don't love the

1373
01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:06,000
context of this team for him and certain lineups, sure,

1374
01:04:06,519 --> 01:04:08,719
but in what like with the brand if you ever

1375
01:04:08,719 --> 01:04:12,280
want to play Brandon Ingram r J Barrett, Scottie Barnes together.

1376
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:14,960
I don't love him there and they don't have I

1377
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,960
don't like enough change ups at the center spot, Like

1378
01:04:18,079 --> 01:04:20,480
maybe Mamu can come in and stretch the floor. Then

1379
01:04:20,519 --> 01:04:24,079
that gets really interesting, but then you're losing guy he is.

1380
01:04:24,079 --> 01:04:26,880
But that's uncomfortable. That's an uncomfortable spot to be in. Also,

1381
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:30,599
I think someone flying under the radar, they like they

1382
01:04:30,639 --> 01:04:32,679
need Oachai aquadity to just be really good, Like that

1383
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:34,960
was like he's three and d plays within himself. They

1384
01:04:35,000 --> 01:04:37,519
need that type, especially if I don't know what Grady

1385
01:04:37,559 --> 01:04:39,760
Dick is anymore. He had that hot start to the season,

1386
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:41,719
seemed like he was gassed. I love what he could do,

1387
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:44,119
is like kind of a movement guy, and in theory

1388
01:04:44,119 --> 01:04:46,679
of everything he does on offense, it does seem like

1389
01:04:47,119 --> 01:04:49,199
I'm curious, And this is more of a general question.

1390
01:04:49,559 --> 01:04:51,800
Do you think it gets easier for him to be

1391
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:55,039
better now that if everyone's healthy, there's a very clear

1392
01:04:55,079 --> 01:04:57,800
pecking order and he is just not in the top

1393
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:59,599
three or four options on this team, and so it

1394
01:04:59,599 --> 01:05:02,119
gets easy You're to kind of I don't want to say,

1395
01:05:02,119 --> 01:05:03,719
box him into a role, but put him into a

1396
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:05,480
role where he doesn't have to try to do too much.

1397
01:05:05,519 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say specialize. Yeah, I think. I

1398
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:10,400
think maybe there is a case. I do think too,

1399
01:05:10,519 --> 01:05:13,480
Like there's a version of this team where Agbaji just

1400
01:05:14,239 --> 01:05:17,679
becomes like vintage Contavious called Will Pope and he fits

1401
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:20,400
way better than R. J. Barrett in that spot. And

1402
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:22,880
then everyone's talking about they'll trade Barrett for somebody that

1403
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:25,280
fits better. But if Bob, it's a stretch. If he

1404
01:05:25,519 --> 01:05:28,599
if he's just a pure two that shoots a ton

1405
01:05:28,599 --> 01:05:31,639
of threes and defends and doesn't really do anything else,

1406
01:05:31,679 --> 01:05:35,440
Like the Raptors need that guy, I think because Barrett's

1407
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:37,000
not that guy. Barrett wants to put the ball on

1408
01:05:37,039 --> 01:05:39,000
the floor and like he's good at like he's good

1409
01:05:39,000 --> 01:05:40,840
at that, it's just there's not gonna be room for

1410
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:42,239
him to do it. Does best?

1411
01:05:42,519 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 1: Do you know where some of R. J. Barrett's best

1412
01:05:44,360 --> 01:05:46,920
moments on a really good team came when he was

1413
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:49,480
in bench heavy units with the Knicks. Sure, so if

1414
01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:52,639
that's what the role for him is in Toronto now,

1415
01:05:53,639 --> 01:05:55,840
that's that could end up working out really well. So

1416
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:57,679
like him and Yaka Pertle of the two that I

1417
01:05:57,679 --> 01:05:59,320
look at it. I don't know what their future is

1418
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:02,320
with this team, but it's not Argae Barre specifically. I'm

1419
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:05,360
higher on I think his fit that I would be purdles.

1420
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:07,679
But a lot of people believe that I underestimate Pearl,

1421
01:06:07,679 --> 01:06:10,719
which is kind of fine. At this point, I would

1422
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:14,880
ask you what's more likely this team wins forty five

1423
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:20,920
plus games or like wins only thirty five? Uh so

1424
01:06:21,039 --> 01:06:23,079
forty five or more? Thirty five or less? That took it.

1425
01:06:23,199 --> 01:06:25,000
That was a journey for me to give you that question.

1426
01:06:25,199 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 2: I'd go the forty five or more high.

1427
01:06:28,199 --> 01:06:29,599
Speaker 1: Is that weird? No?

1428
01:06:29,679 --> 01:06:34,199
Speaker 2: I just think there's too many good players like now, again,

1429
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:36,039
this is sort of a higher level thing like that,

1430
01:06:36,199 --> 01:06:38,840
it's more a playoff thing. Should they Should they advance

1431
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:42,440
that far where your deficiencies just get magnified. But this's

1432
01:06:42,519 --> 01:06:46,159
just enough. There's enough talent here, there's enough size, there's

1433
01:06:46,280 --> 01:06:51,119
enough like defense for sure to the floor's pretty high here.

1434
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:53,880
I don't know how the ceiling's not fifty five, but

1435
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:56,119
forty five is not crazy. They could they could easily

1436
01:06:56,159 --> 01:06:56,440
do that.

1437
01:06:58,199 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 1: Last up, we have the Washington Wizards twenty and a half.

1438
01:07:03,199 --> 01:07:06,119
That's higher than last year in the Wizards.

1439
01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 2: Would be hard to be lower. I was looking, I

1440
01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:10,960
told you off air, I was looking at our last

1441
01:07:11,039 --> 01:07:13,599
year's overrunners, and I forget who had what, but there

1442
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:17,440
there was a thirteen and a fifteen in there, which

1443
01:07:17,480 --> 01:07:20,760
actually that's comically low. I'll just spoil it. I don't

1444
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:24,039
have any overrunners any win total that low. They had

1445
01:07:24,039 --> 01:07:26,159
the point differential of a fourteen win team last year.

1446
01:07:26,199 --> 01:07:28,840
So you've got him winning ten more, You've got him

1447
01:07:28,840 --> 01:07:30,840
at twenty four wins. I've got him at nineteen, So

1448
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:35,119
you're over. I'm under. That's more fun. This is a

1449
01:07:35,159 --> 01:07:40,559
really young team that other than like so here's maybe

1450
01:07:40,559 --> 01:07:43,519
the way to put it is this, who do you

1451
01:07:43,800 --> 01:07:47,039
see of their first and second year crop of players?

1452
01:07:47,039 --> 01:07:49,880
And let's say third because kol Bali is more fun

1453
01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:55,159
to include, has like an all star ceiling in the future.

1454
01:07:56,199 --> 01:07:58,960
Speaker 1: Great question. I think it's still cool Bali and sar

1455
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:01,559
I have. Maybe we'd have to see what Trey Jones

1456
01:08:01,559 --> 01:08:03,320
looks like at the NBA, but it's just like what

1457
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:05,400
is he? I don't know what to make of him

1458
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:08,440
as a playmaker type of like what would beach his

1459
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:12,280
I just call him Trade Jones. Trey Johnson. Yeah, what

1460
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:15,960
would be Trey Johnson's like NBA comp is he?

1461
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:19,520
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna shoot great. I just don't know

1462
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:23,079
if he's gonna do anything else. So what does that

1463
01:08:23,119 --> 01:08:26,000
look like as a pure to really probably right, Like

1464
01:08:26,039 --> 01:08:27,640
he's not someone that's gonna.

1465
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:31,479
Speaker 1: I think I think it's probably like a Tyler hero

1466
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:33,399
What does that make sense?

1467
01:08:33,399 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 2: Like that stuff got? Do you think he's got heroes

1468
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:39,000
on ball stuff?

1469
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 1: I think he can get there, at least as a playmaker.

1470
01:08:42,840 --> 01:08:45,039
I've seen some people say Devin Booker feels a little rich.

1471
01:08:45,079 --> 01:08:48,079
I don't think he's Cam Thomas, but with a three

1472
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:50,760
more of a three. I don't think that's a like

1473
01:08:51,039 --> 01:08:53,159
the Cam Thomas of three point shooters. I mean not

1474
01:08:53,199 --> 01:08:55,760
because Cam Thomas has like a really deep on ball

1475
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:58,119
bag that Trey Johnson doesn't just yet.

1476
01:08:58,279 --> 01:09:01,039
Speaker 2: So well, it's a weird position. It's a position type

1477
01:09:01,039 --> 01:09:03,399
that's not in favor. But I think he might be

1478
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:05,720
really good as that type of player still.

1479
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:07,439
Speaker 1: Right, So I think it's the two we have them

1480
01:09:07,439 --> 01:09:10,039
on screen as black hole, Bally and Alex are Now

1481
01:09:10,239 --> 01:09:14,039
I don't see any of them actualizing that this season.

1482
01:09:14,079 --> 01:09:16,720
But what I do trust about the Wizards is that

1483
01:09:17,159 --> 01:09:21,479
they have so many dudes. When you look at Bob Carrington,

1484
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:25,920
Corey Kisspert, Chris Middleton and CJ mccalmer on this team, Keijean,

1485
01:09:26,000 --> 01:09:31,560
George cam Whitmore, justin Champagny, like there's like I even

1486
01:09:31,640 --> 01:09:34,800
I really like Will Riley, so there's there. Their big

1487
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:37,359
man rotation kind of sucks after Alex Aar. I still

1488
01:09:37,399 --> 01:09:39,880
don't know why Tristan Vukesovich is only on a two way.

1489
01:09:40,319 --> 01:09:42,880
I'm not a Marvin Bagley guy. Maybe they're just gonna

1490
01:09:42,960 --> 01:09:46,159
run like freaking small in certain instances without star on

1491
01:09:46,159 --> 01:09:50,159
the court. I think the problem, the actual strongest argument

1492
01:09:50,159 --> 01:09:52,239
for me is maybe not the talent yet. Yeah, they

1493
01:09:52,279 --> 01:09:54,479
don't have a ton of top tier town. It doesn't

1494
01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:56,399
seem like they just have so much of it that

1495
01:09:56,439 --> 01:09:59,399
I could see them being greater than the sum of

1496
01:09:59,399 --> 01:10:01,880
their parts. Where really gets me is I don't know

1497
01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:04,560
what their identity would be. I don't look at this

1498
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:07,439
team and say they're definitely like, oh, they can do

1499
01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:10,600
this on offense, they could do this on defense. I

1500
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:14,319
think they actually have the potential to be like super

1501
01:10:14,439 --> 01:10:18,760
Rangy Malleable Versatilen disruptive on the defensive end. Just looking

1502
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:23,319
at Kool Bali, Sar Keishawn George, I think that that

1503
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:24,920
for me is where I'm at with them, but I

1504
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:26,800
don't feel great about it.

1505
01:10:27,399 --> 01:10:31,279
Speaker 2: I just think I think their key guys are really

1506
01:10:31,319 --> 01:10:34,239
far away still, And even that even extends to Kolbali,

1507
01:10:34,439 --> 01:10:37,640
like I defensively, I think he's pretty close to just

1508
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:40,880
being like that's a starting caliber defender and maybe better

1509
01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:44,119
than that. Everybody else just seems like we're still in

1510
01:10:44,159 --> 01:10:48,079
the growing pains stage and the Wizards should absolutely play

1511
01:10:48,159 --> 01:10:50,920
all these guys as much as they possibly can, and

1512
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:53,960
it'll be bad just because I don't think there's an

1513
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:56,319
a shot creator here. So I think offense is going

1514
01:10:56,359 --> 01:10:59,039
to be a struggle. I don't think there's like Sar

1515
01:10:59,159 --> 01:11:01,880
has potential. I don't think there's an anchor defensively, and

1516
01:11:02,039 --> 01:11:04,039
certainly not one that won't make a bunch of mistakes.

1517
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:06,880
So it's just this is what you get with a

1518
01:11:07,079 --> 01:11:11,119
with a young, deliberate rebuild that hasn't like hasn't quite

1519
01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:14,840
selected the guy that is emerging as a cornerstone piece.

1520
01:11:14,840 --> 01:11:18,399
There are options here, but they're just they're really far away.

1521
01:11:18,439 --> 01:11:21,560
So I went under I. You know, anytime you pick

1522
01:11:21,600 --> 01:11:23,119
a win total in the teens, it's kind of like,

1523
01:11:23,119 --> 01:11:24,479
statistically that's probably dumb.

1524
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:25,119
Speaker 1: Uh.

1525
01:11:25,319 --> 01:11:29,319
Speaker 2: But I just think they're pretty clearly worse than Brooklyn

1526
01:11:29,399 --> 01:11:32,199
because the Wizards don't have the Brooklyn option of like

1527
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:36,640
we can we can play five NBA caliber veterans if

1528
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:39,039
we want to. The Wizards can't really do that.

1529
01:11:40,680 --> 01:11:43,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean so they would have. Yeah, it's Middleton,

1530
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:45,600
it's CJ. McCollum. And then I guess you're just saying

1531
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:47,439
like they're young guys or something like even the cool

1532
01:11:47,479 --> 01:11:49,079
Bali has been, there is still so much of an

1533
01:11:49,119 --> 01:11:50,239
unknownment anyway.

1534
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:54,279
Speaker 2: He's just he's he's more prospect than like current helpful player.

1535
01:11:54,439 --> 01:11:57,199
Speaker 1: I also don't think schematically like Brian Keith has shown

1536
01:11:57,239 --> 01:11:58,520
the level that Jody Fernandez.

1537
01:11:59,079 --> 01:12:01,920
Speaker 2: I think that's very very true. Uh, yeah, I agree

1538
01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:03,720
with that.

1539
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:06,039
Speaker 1: That was it. That was a journey for us. Was

1540
01:12:06,039 --> 01:12:08,039
its a lot of fun. I'm excited to go fifteen

1541
01:12:08,079 --> 01:12:09,680
and oh, which means that you're gonna have to go

1542
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:12,520
I think a twelve and three or something. Well, we

1543
01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:14,239
were in pretty lockstep a lot of the time.

1544
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, So definitely I will be rooting for the Wizards

1545
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:20,880
to fail and you'll be all about them this year,

1546
01:12:21,000 --> 01:12:22,760
just so you can come out at least one ahead

1547
01:12:22,760 --> 01:12:22,920
of me?

1548
01:12:23,439 --> 01:12:25,399
Speaker 1: Did you have your shakiest? But the only thing I

1549
01:12:25,439 --> 01:12:27,640
was gonna ask you is who's my shakiest? Bet was

1550
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:30,199
the who did I pick? It was? Orlando? I went

1551
01:12:30,279 --> 01:12:32,840
under on fifty? Who was your sort of shakiest? Was it? Philly?

1552
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:34,359
Feels like the default.

1553
01:12:34,359 --> 01:12:40,720
Speaker 2: By definition Philly shaky? But I'll honestly Cleveland under I

1554
01:12:40,800 --> 01:12:43,359
just don't feel great about because that's they're gonna win

1555
01:12:43,399 --> 01:12:47,279
eight fewer games than last year. Like that's that's that's hard,

1556
01:12:47,319 --> 01:12:50,880
that's hard to get to. But yeah, Orlando's Orlando's another one,

1557
01:12:50,960 --> 01:12:53,840
like why aren't they winning fifty? Everybody thinks they're winning fifty.

1558
01:12:54,479 --> 01:12:56,439
Speaker 1: Well, we did this in under seventy five minutes, so

1559
01:12:56,680 --> 01:13:00,479
you're welcome or or we're sorry for that. But before

1560
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:02,760
Grant goes and takes us out, just want remind everyone

1561
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:05,600
to please go check out the look Ahead series. Bounce

1562
01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:09,079
around Spotify, Apple, wherever you proadcast YouTube. We have a

1563
01:13:09,079 --> 01:13:11,760
playlist of all the look aheads is where when this releases,

1564
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:16,039
we'll have Miami, Boston, and Toronto left and so most

1565
01:13:16,039 --> 01:13:18,840
of the teams are up and out. Go watch and

1566
01:13:18,880 --> 01:13:21,920
listen to them. Please please do other call to action.

1567
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:25,159
Speaker 2: Get your over unders in join our discord links for

1568
01:13:25,199 --> 01:13:27,800
that in YouTube and podcast description, you can win cool

1569
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,520
stuff and come on the pod, like come on, that'll

1570
01:13:30,560 --> 01:13:32,880
be that'll be fun. And and by definition, if you

1571
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:34,840
get to come on the pod, you will do that

1572
01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:36,960
because you beat us, So that'll be fun for you

1573
01:13:37,119 --> 01:13:39,319
to come on here. And I don't know, lord it

1574
01:13:39,359 --> 01:13:42,479
over us or or be graceful in victory. It's up

1575
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:42,680
to you.

1576
01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:46,359
Speaker 1: I suppose what is graceful in victory? I don't know.

1577
01:13:46,479 --> 01:13:47,079
That sounds so cool?

1578
01:13:47,199 --> 01:13:49,880
Speaker 2: Was seeing like what's the great? What's something in defeat?

1579
01:13:50,079 --> 01:13:52,479
Like I can't it's late for me, even though it's

1580
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:55,359
three hours later for you. So I'm losing my word power.

1581
01:13:55,760 --> 01:14:00,399
Uh so I'm gonna take us out great reviews, subscribe,

1582
01:14:00,399 --> 01:14:02,520
do all that stuff, tell your friends, tell your enemies again,

1583
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:04,279
do the over unders. It's fun, and.

1584
01:14:04,560 --> 01:14:08,279
Speaker 1: Develop Google doc if you're not a discord person, but

1585
01:14:08,359 --> 01:14:10,159
go in the discord and talking the discord. We like

1586
01:14:10,199 --> 01:14:12,920
seeing what other people are having conversations without us in there,

1587
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:15,560
So join the discord. Put the link to the Google doc.

1588
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:17,439
I will put it. Maybe I'll make a community post

1589
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:20,760
on YouTube. But go It's in the podcast and YouTube description.

1590
01:14:21,399 --> 01:14:24,000
It takes like what you're just going over, unders. We're

1591
01:14:24,000 --> 01:14:25,720
not asking for record production. It takes you three minutes.

1592
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:26,319
So go in there.

1593
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:29,159
Speaker 2: And I threw darts. It was really took.

1594
01:14:29,279 --> 01:14:31,199
Speaker 1: That was the thinking out of it, that was very

1595
01:14:31,199 --> 01:14:34,159
clearly based on your wizards analysis like that became very good.

1596
01:14:36,680 --> 01:14:38,439
Speaker 2: Shouts Frankly King. Apologies, Charnel