Speaker 1: What is up, Fellawsiko's I am dam Valley coming at
you with my certified fantabulous co host, mister Grant Hughes.
It's Win Projection times. We begin with the Eastern Conference.
The way this will work is Grant and I will
go with the over under. We will talk about whether
we're gonna go over under and then give our actual
record for the team. If you're watching along on YouTube,
they will pop up on the screen. I'm excited to
go fifteen to zero in the Eastern Conference this year.
As a reminder, we do run our over under competition.
If you win, you get to pick whatever you want
from a merch store free of charge. We will send
it to you and you will have the option you
can decline. I don't know why you would want to.
The last person didn't answer, so maybe you would want
to decline, but you can come on and you will
be on a guess a player, a gap segment or episode,
whatever it turns into. There have not been a lot
of people that have signed up just yet, so it's
in our discord. I will include the link to the
Google doc to where you just input your over unders.
Make sure to include your email and to actually title
the tab. Those are only things you have to do,
so go check that out, join it. See if you
can beat me and Grant and quite a few people, well,
quite a few people beat me last year. And then
if I would say a few people beat Grant.
Speaker 2: Not quite a few, but it's yeah, still a solid number.
Speaker 1: It was just smattering, was a healthy smattering I would
have preferred. So come join that. And by the way,
if you have not checked them out yet, we are
doing look aheads for every single team ahead of the
regular season. But we talk about so much more, like
we talk about long term futures. Go check those out
in our audio feeds on YouTube, and if you haven't already,
just subscribe. Like the video throw us hype points. Those
apparently matter now, so hype us up. Tell your friends too,
so help us continue to grow the podcast and YouTube channel.
That's all I have. Aside from this question, which is
the most important question, we will ask Grant, how the
heck are you?
Speaker 2: Why don't you answer for me? Since so many of
your over undertotals are exactly like mine are I assume
you know exactly how I feel because you seem to
know what I think.
Speaker 1: It is you know, what's interesting about that is because
it's proof that, like, we're not necessarily conforming to each
other on purpose, because you and I did not consult
each other before we puts them together. I was literally
in putting them into the graphic before we got started.
And the number of teams that we just it wasn't
even within one or two wins. It was the same
record is stupid.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of giggling happening as you entered each
As you got to each team, it's like, how is
it possible that these that we came so close on
these two? Also, I didn't look at any over under
totals before we did this, so I wasn't even like,
had we both done that, maybe you could that would
have like influenced us one way or the other or
pushed us closer to Nope, just just pure coincidence. I
don't know, it's just group think. Really, I've mine kind
of stuff.
Speaker 1: I tried not to expose myself to them this year,
so I made the questions at the end of the
look aheads, how many games do you see your team winning?
Rather than citing the over under. I was exposed a
little bit because some people cited the over under, but
I just when I was going through, I was interested
to see. I didn't look at the over unders. I
was interested to see like how close I was on
certain ones, And a lot of them were just like
the same with you, whereas like, oh, I was within
like a couple wins of what Vegas thought. Apparently, then
there were certain teams where it was, oh, you're like
eight wins off of that, there might be something wrong here.
Speaker 2: The other tricky thing about this every year is we
both do make sure that we add up to an
equal number of wins and losses, which like, that's how
you should do it, but it also makes it I
feel like you're more likely to get a lot of
teams wrong that way, because you realize, oh, I'm forty
five wins to I have way too many wins, so
you start pulling them from somewhere. Even though you already
thought that this team was going to be really good.
It's like, well, they can't win fifty four. Now they
have to win fifty one because I need those three
wins for somebody, or I need three more losses somewhere.
So it's just like I'm in a toy one of
these years with just doing it without trying to balance
wins and losses, just to see see if I could
somehow be more accurate or right.
Speaker 1: Next year, we should just not do records. We should
just do the over under and see if our winning
percentage on that goes up, because we're not factoring that
in for me this year though normally I have to,
or maybe not, I don't remember it, but I feel
like I have to cull wins from somewhere. Yeah this time.
But here's a fun anecdote. I was doing it. I
saw always like almost eighty wins short, and I was like,
that's insane. That's like three window team almost. It turns
out I decided not to fill out the Spurs and
I left them at zero eight wins. So yeah, so
it worked out. But once I penciled them in, I
was still short a bunch and I was like, oh,
I have to give team wins. That doesn't sound fun.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: With that though, we're gonna go just straight alphabetically this time.
You're welcome everybody. I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere,
but are you ready to get started? Mister Hughes.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: We begin with the Atlanta Hawks over under a forty
seven and a half. That is decidedly not mid grant.
Speaker 2: No forty wins last year. We both love their everybody
kind of has love their offseason. So they they they
get Jalen Johnson back. They also add Nikhil Alexander Walker,
they add Luke Canard, they add who's the third guy
they added? Dan? I can't remember off the top of
my head, Christops, that's the one.
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, are old pal Kristaps. So basically like go eight deep?
Uh And they're all really they're all starting caliber players.
So forty was way too They're gonna beat last year's
solo forty. And obviously the giant caveat for all these
teams is as long as they have reasonable health luck
relative to like the players that they have. That means
something different from for every team. I suppose it's not
the same thing for the Clippers as it is for
the Hawks. For example.
Speaker 1: Well, they have challenge, Christops, maybe.
Speaker 2: Not the best. I should have picked them further apart
team in terms of injury luck. So what do you think, Dan?
Do you want to give your win total here?
Speaker 1: So I went with I'm pretty bullish on the Hawks.
I think that anyone knows. So I went with forty
nine wins and you ended up going with forty Yes,
decidedly the over though, No, you have them at the under, right, for.
Speaker 2: This is a good one. This is so this is
kind of a sweet spot over under because we're both
exactly one point five wins separate from it, just in
opposite directions. I this is a case where I had
to pull a couple wins. I might have had them
at forty seven or forty eight beforehand, but I think
forty six win jump is substantial, right, Like, that's that's
maybe not quite reflective enough of the talent that they added. Uh,
but you know, maybe Porzingis doesn't stay healthy, that crazy
illness thing last year plus just has had injuries on
top of that.
Speaker 1: Your immune system shaming. I don't like it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not that far apart, but the fact that
I'm under and you're over makes for it makes them
more interesting because one of us will be right and
one is gonna be wrong. Like, let's start it out
that way.
Speaker 1: I totally understand the health concerns. We've yet to see
Jalen Johnson like, be this version of Jalen Johnson and
play in sixty five plus games. I just look at
it as Trey Young is going to be better. He
has better talent around him, and just his efficiency last
year specifically wasn't the same. I think they have better
defensive talent around him. The one concern, aside from health
that I have for this team is have they under
indexed on like secondary playmaking. Because you can say, well, like, well,
Jalen Johnson is there, and Nikilexander Walker can do some things.
Luke Canard can do some things. Maybe you want to
test out the more of the depth of Zachary Resiche's game, Sure,
but I don't know of those guys. Jalen Johnson is
getting there, But of those guys as well, who do
you like, you need someone else to just break down
a defense from scratch, And I don't know, is that
Dyson Daniels. I don't think so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Daniels is kind of He's another guy I thought
you were gonna mention in the secondary creation thing, more
of a connective guy. Canard is kind of like I
feel like it's just we say the same thing about
Canard all the time because he's not just a shooter.
He can actually you know, but he's not a born playmaker,
so I think that's a fair criticism. The defense has
a chance to be pretty good, though, if Porzinkis is
healthy and you can have him in a Coong Wu
as your guys in the middle, and Resa che Solid
Daniels is great like they're they could be. You know,
they should be better than average on both offense and defense.
And the offensive potential is very high because Trey Young
has led really good offenses in the past. So uh yeah,
I think this is a mid to high forties team.
Fifty would be fifty is not off the table, I
don't think, but but I wasn't quite prepared to go
that high.
Speaker 1: So they are neither one of our best bets, though
we will single that out when we get to the
first person reveals. Though I'm going to implement this rule
right now. We can't pick the same ones. Whoever is
the first to be able to reveal their best bet,
that's the one that I get. We are on to
the Boston Celtics forty one and a half grant. Just
here before we get into the actual wins, like, what
was your initial reaction to seeing them above five hundred
in that department?
Speaker 2: It just felt high. I guess it's a nod to
the talent that's still here. Jalen Brown Derek White Principally,
I think I think the other thing that, So, I
mean we can We could just put the next graphic
up if you want, because I'm gonna refer to it.
I went under here, and that's why. What scares me.
I had thirty seven. You had a thirty two, So
you're even more bearish on this team than I am.
Let me pose it to you. Then what scares me
is the Celtic's likelihood of just winning the math ball
game by shooting even more threes and just increasing the
variance and maybe you you know, maybe you run hot
and you can beat literally anybody because you get up
sixty five threes or something like that. So they seem
to me to have a pretty high variance potential and
they could steal wins they wouldn't otherwise deserve. Obviously that
cuts the other way. But we're both under here. Why
does that not concern you? And then maybe talk about
some of the downward pulling forces that they got you
down to thirty two.
Speaker 1: Here's my thing. Yeah, they have told us through their
actions that they are not trying to win this year.
We're just going to assume that a team where the
Jalen Brown is its best player, who's a fantastic player,
but is he a number one option type guy for
a full eighty two games. No, No, the answer is no.
And if they're the other thing, the real thing I'm
factoring into this though, well, it's two things. They're going
to get out of the tax and whether that happens
by trading Anthony Simons or just dumping Sam Hauser and
doing something else that will make you worse in all likelihood,
I don't think you're shaving twelve million dollars of salary
or whatever thirteen and getting better and then the final
thing and they should actually be destroyed if they don't
do this is just lean into the gap year. Get
Jalen Brown, who's banged up beyond comprehension last year, some rest.
If you want to bring Jason Tatum back, and he
said that he informed thee What was the report that
he informed the Celtics that he wants to come back.
I'm not against it towards the end of the season,
just to try and get his sea legs about him,
But like what is the incentive that this team has
to chase. If you're if we're sitting there in February
after the All Star break and they're on pace for
forty two wins or forty one wins, why are you
leaning in to that ceiling.
Speaker 2: It's not like you've got a bunch of young guys
that need the playoff experience. You know. They let's get
him in a play in game so they can be tested.
It's really that's just not it. I think maybe they
want to get him some get her some looks. I
think it's smart that you went that low, because if
it's close they I think they should just just pack
it in. I didn't go quite as low as you
did because I think Joe Missoula would lose his mind
if forced to really abjectly tank. So we're both in
the thirties. This is a pretty clean under for me
and definitely for you.
Speaker 1: I will say I came very close to just making
this my best bet, but I just I don't want
to rule out the Celtics or Peyton Pritchard ends up
winning like MVP or something. Sure, try to account for that.
That's always possibility. You want to take it to the
next team.
Speaker 2: Yep, this is the Brooklyn Nets. They're over under is
twenty point five. They won twenty six last year, spurred
by a nine and ten start that they just they
could not erase those early wins and that's how they
got there. We talked to Lucas Kaplan and I think
we you know, he definitely put it out there, and
I think we both kind of agree. The Nets are
probably gonna play hard. They do have veteran lead lineups
that can be pretty good if they want to. Now
they shouldn't because they also have one hundred rookies that
all need to play and probably shout out the ball.
Yeah one hundred, hold on, one hundred and four two
one hundred and four rookies all first rounders. Somehow, I
don't know how that worked. So twenty and a half
is a low total. They're gonna have to They're gonna
have to try, I think, to get down to that number,
and I don't think they're gonna pull it off. I
think they're gonna be just over at twenty one. And
of course this is the first instance of a of
a perfect agreement between the two of us.
Speaker 1: I just went I wanted to reinforce the over without
having to like go too far into the win column.
So they made it Okay, this is over and I
don't have to add any wins to them. I ended
up pulling away from them. I think I had like
twenty four to twenty five, but for the purposes of
hitting them over under I was like, no, this works,
you said it. That's just such a low total. And
just look at how the team started under Jordi Fernandez
last year. And I think that they will win games
they're not supposed to because teams will be sleeping on them,
and like you said, they'll try hard. And I really
just believe, Okay, cool, they could shut down whoever they want.
There's no one on this team that they could shut down.
And you like feel materially worse about their chances of
winning a game in March or April.
Speaker 2: Right. I do think like this is sort of two
teams because if you just make sure that it's it's
gemin I can't I can run never at Saraf or
trey Ore. If those guys are handling the ball all
the time and running the offense, yeah, you could win
in the teams like that's that's the best way, probably
to just make sure you're a bad Teams have rookies
do a lot of the heavy life. But it's like,
what do you do with all these Like Michael Porter
Junior is a good NBA player, Nick Claxon's a good player,
like we even like Noah Clowney's an interesting I mean
he might pop. Like there's Cam Thomas is gonna score,
Like there's a bunch of guys that could all they
They're gonna have to bench these players. That's just what's
gonna have to happen, and I think they'll do it.
Speaker 1: I think the other thing too, is and this doesn't
spoil anything. They don't need to win seventy The lattery
ons are you want a bottom four record twenty one
wins or like what twenty four wins might even get
you here?
Speaker 2: You don't, you're pretty sid like, yeah.
Speaker 1: You don't need to be a fifteen win team. So
I think that will factor in as well. We're onto
the Charlotte Hornet. They're always such a tough team. I
could talk myself they're twenty six and a half is
their overunder. I could talk myself into a lot more
than that. I'm not gonna lie and I want to
start before we reveal it. Can I ask you what's
the case of them winning like twenty six or under games? Uh?
Speaker 2: Well, the easy answers LaMelo gets hurt again in the
offense falls apart, which is again we don't we don't
just paint with the broadest injury brush, like he just
hasn't stayed healthy. So for this team, that's like, that's
not just some hypothetical concern, it's a real one, and
it's one that has affected their record for several seasons.
So that's the starting point. And then I think, I
think you look at Conker Nipple. We like him. That's
another rookie that maybe if he's going to play a
lot that's gonna hurt the offense, that's going to hurt
the defense. And Brandon Miller maybe that step forward in
terms of volume doesn't bring efficiency this year, Like there's
just and then really, Dan, the center rotation is as
bad as rough right, and.
Speaker 1: So the will rather have Charlotte's or New Orleans.
Speaker 2: Is It's all I will say is that Charlotte's clearly
the worst in the East and New Orleans is clearly
the worst in the West. This defense has no chance
of being good because that the the center play is
going to be so rough and and throwing LaMelo in
a bunch of young players like so that that's how
you get all the way under twenty six is maybe
injury and the defense is going to just give everything
up at the basket, right, like those are my two keys?
Do you have more?
Speaker 1: No? I think it's just LaMelo And then it would
be did Brandon Miller who did what we see before
his injury was that sort of a sign of things
to come? Or felt like he might have maxed out
on the offensive end?
Speaker 2: So what's the upside case?
Speaker 1: Though?
Speaker 2: Because I like you, you could talk me into like thirty
seven if everything, if a lot broke right right, you
can get way into the thirties.
Speaker 1: Right, because if you look at the setup of this roster,
LaMelo plus shooting is not something that we've seen consistently
and not something we've seen for at least three or
four years. Like go if we go back and look
at like where his teammates ranked in three point efficiency off,
but it is putrid. It's just absolutely atrocious. So if
he's healthy and he has SPA saying yeah, he's still
gonna do things, and he will infuriate you with the
plays he doesn't make on defense, on the shots he
takes on offense. But I really think I don't want
to use the phrase rained in necessarily, but I feel
like we could see more of an even keeled LaMelo
on the offensive end because there's talent, offensive talent actually
around him. So the case for me is, just if
he plays in sixty five seventy games and they remain
relatively healthy, is the offense just so good and they
rip off you know when you get to play. Yeah,
there's really good teams in the East, but just think
about the Moras of the East, where it's like against
the Miami's, the Toronto's, the Chicago's. They could pick up
wins against those teams and all of a sudden find
themselves high thirties, maybe even low forties.
Speaker 2: And I think too, you can be a LaMelo skeptic
in the sense that you're not convinced that he's an
you're convinced that he's unseerious and he can't be the
driving force on a team that does something in the playoffs.
That can still be true. But also LaMelo could lead
a offense that ranks like eighth or ninth in the
league and they still win thirty four games or whatever
because the defense is twenty seventh like that, You know,
you can you can have questions about LaMelo impacting winning
at the highest level. That's way different than saying he
can't lead a really good offense that wins you in
the a thirty some odd games, Right, So I don't know,
I'm just saying there's there's a decent spread here for
this team.
Speaker 1: Needless to say, we both went over, because I really
the twenty six and a half is just we're gonna
assume that LaMelo plays in thirty eight forty games. Again, look,
it's a distinct possibility, but it just sort of feels
it's not twenty six point six with the graph bet
screen shut out me. So I had them at thirty
three wins because I actually the other thing about this
front office, I don't think this would It certainly wouldn't
be the reason they hit the under, but like they
have made moves at each of the past two trade deadlines,
that shows they're more invested in the bigger picture. And
let's say everybody is healthy. If they're only in the
running for like tenth or eleventh place. I think that
they will steer out of it.
Speaker 2: I think that's true. I I think on the one
thing to think about with this team is because we
do sort of agree that the front office it has
a long time horizon and is being patient and deliberate
and making small moves on the margins. It also might
be the kind of front office that really does just
say we kind of want a top four pick if
we can get it. Like, I don't know how you
engineer that, but I wouldn't put it past them, just
because I think if you respect this front office, and
we kind of do, you probably shouldn't rule out a
tank if they see the opportunity. But that would require injuries.
I think who we got next, Chicago Bulls Dan thirty
two and a half Josh Giddy's Chicago Bulls that I'm
just gonna start. That's low. That seems low. I look,
all we know about the Bulls is they win between
thirty eight and forty two games every year. I'm gonna
jump on it now. I'm going over not by a ton,
but this is my best bet. The Bulls are not
gonna win. They're not gonna win thirty two games because
that's what they should do, and they don't do the
things they should do. I have met thirty eight, you
have met thirty four, you're also over. I just think, okay,
joke like joking about the only winning like within this
four game range aside, I think Giddy. I don't love
him as a high level winner, kind of same thing
as LaMelo, but I think he's gonna be a good
player this year. I like Kobe White. Vucevich shot the
shit out of it last year. He won't do that again,
but he's a good offensive player. Modess Bizellis could pop
in his second year. We like I would assume it.
Speaker 1: There's just kind of enough here to not be a
thirty two win team to go under.
Speaker 2: Uh So, I don't know. I can I say that
I don't like the Chicago Bulls, but I also think
they're definitely winning more than thirty two games.
Speaker 1: To make them your best bet. I just here's the thing.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. All my other over unders are all
my other win totals are so close to the actual
over under that like, mathematically, this is my best bet.
I think this is the furthest I was from the
actual number.
Speaker 1: That's a mic drop yeah, Oh.
Speaker 2: Where's that been?
Speaker 1: That's Grant, that's the best bet the Chicago Well, that is,
I did not see that coming in. I would echo
everything you said the thirty two and a half, even
though I have them at thirty four, which isn't much higher.
I just like it almost assumes that this would be
the team that has the foresight to trade Kobe White,
to not play Nikola Vucevich or trade him, and we
just know, I know they traded Zach Lavine last year,
but we also just know that that's not typically how
they operate, and so the path to them finishing under
feels it's not. I mean, Nikola Vuevich is playly way
more important to this team than he should be. But
to me, if they're gonna keep Kobe White, if they're
gonna get it like this, this implies it's not injuries
to me necessarily, it's like this implies that they're gonna
be fire sellers, and there they've never done anything ever
close to that. Noe. We move on to another team
that is called the Cleveland Cavaliers fifty six and a half. Grant,
what was your what was your reaction to seeing fifty
six and a half as they're over under.
Speaker 2: I mean, what do they win? What did they win
last year? Sixty? No, fifty nine, I can't even remember now,
it was a lot, It was more than this.
Speaker 1: So they were at last year they were at sixty four.
Speaker 2: Sixty sixty four Jesus Christ, that's a lot of winters.
Speaker 1: So when did when did they exit the playoffs?
Speaker 2: Though a little well, if you're asking about any of
the last three seasons, a little earlier than they would
have preferred. Uh So this seems low, But I do
think I imagine this has moved because coming off of
last year adding Lonzo, I guess Lonzo Ball is not
a regular season player. But like some of the injuries
that they're starting the season with have to have affected
this number, and I think it affected my thinking about
them too. So uh, like you would assume I would
have assumed this number before, Like was there a moment
where we before we knew Garland was going to miss
a bunch of time and before we knew Struce was hurt,
It had to have been closer to sixty, right, I
would I would assume it has moved down. I think
after kind of the like the off season storm of
transactions were over. Initially, it was very easy to just
talk yourselves into the Cavaliers is by far and away
the best regular season team in the Eastern Like there's
a chasm between them, Orlando, Atlanta, New York, anyone else
you throw in there, right, I think you just have
to factor in the injuries and just like, look, they're
I'll just they're gonna have my highest projected wins in
the conference. That's more a statement of I don't think
anyone's running away with things this year. I've got them
at fifty six.
Speaker 1: So do you.
Speaker 2: I've I've talked a lot. What are your general thoughts
on the Cavs. I will just say before I take
turn it to you, like, I think the offense is
just gonna be really good because of the style they play,
and Donovan Mitchell's great, and I think Evan Mobley will
be better and they can weather the Garland thing.
Speaker 1: Those are all exceedingly hot takes that we cannot stand for.
You're just you've become too much of a contrarian for me.
So one of the reasons I have them under is
so it's not even those injuries to Garland and Strews,
but also the other thing is I. I like the
Lonzo Ball addition, but like, defensively, this team on the
perimeter can get very weird very quickly. I know they
have DeAndre Hunter, but he's always been a six foot
eight inch body that you can throw at other premier
players and it's not always gonna end well. The other
thing is Dean Wade can handle a lot of that
stuff when Dean Wade is available to play, which is
also just not a given. And how many minutes can
Dean Wade actually play if you're playing him? And you
also what do you look? Are you making any trade
offs you don't want to at the offensive end? So
losing Isaaca Korro and going like two Lonzo Ball, who's
a good defender, but he's not this lockdown, one on
one type of guy. He's just going to be more
of a connective, disruptive, solid tissue on that side of
the floor. I just I have like a pin in
sort of it and saying, oh, could this team be
like Evan Mobley and Jared Allen are on the court
at the defensive rating, even if they don't rebound, it
will probably be super elite. But I'm just sort of
wondering when you combine those questions on the perimeter with
the injuries, also with the fact that at this point,
and this is not this sounds like a contrarian take,
or maybe it doesn't. This thing's gonna get blown up
if they exit, like if there's not a competitive second
round series here this season, and so I think that
they know enough to understand it's not about the regular season,
and so we might see even more pullback. I mean,
they won so many games last year while still pulling back.
Maybe the East is better set up for that because
of what's going on in Boston and Indiana. I just
if they were fully healthy, if Darius Gorne was gonna
be healthy to start the year, if Ma actually was,
maybe I could talk myself and I could talk myself
and me over right now, I think they're gonna go
for it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where if I agree with that. I mean,
I don't have anything really to add there other than
I'm not ruling out the possibility that Evan Mobley is
so good this year that whatever the Cavs do, they're
just going over. But I'm conservatively just a half win
under with you. Who we got next, the Detroit Pistons.
I was surprised when I put my wind total down
over unders forty six and a half, just to get
that out there first. I feel like that's that's a
great number because it it kind of capitalizes on what
I believe to be just a general sentiment that the
Pistons are on the way up right, like they blew away.
They're like fourteen to forty four wins year over year,
So obviously they're still getting better because Kate Cunningham is
an All NBA caliber player. Now we believe in Ron Holland,
Asar Thompson, Jalen dur And, Jade and Ivy, Isaiah Stewart,
all these young guys around them getting incrementally better. So
why wouldn't they win a couple more games? Spoiler alert,
neither of us have them going over. I've got them
at forty four wins? Is what's your total on the Pistons?
Speaker 1: Here?
Speaker 2: Is it also forty four? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Boring, we both have four.
Speaker 2: How do we justify this here?
Speaker 1: It is? Is that because here here's the guiding phrase
for the Pistons. Progress isn't linear, which really is a
nice way of saying that there's a chance that they're
just worse in the win lost Colum then last year
or about the same, And yes, Kate Cunningham will get better,
and I think you can still bank on growth from
for sure, Asar Thompson, Ron Holland, Jalen Duran, even Jade
and Ivy. But here are a few things with me.
Is that we can't just look at Jade and Ivy's
thirty something games like whatever it ended up being and
decide that that is the new normal. He shot so
well from three and that's the new normal. He's also
I know players have done this, but he's coming back
from a broken leg and that's not an insignificant injury.
They've also kind of telegraphed with their moves from the
offseason that they're still going to prioritize development. They didn't
make any big swings, and I think that was the
right move. And so if you're gonna give Asar Thompson
and then even more so Ron Holland plenty of runway,
I think there will be growing pains that come with that.
I think they'll still be really good on defense, but
I kind of think there's the potential for like the
offensive floor, especially during the non Kate Cunningham minutes to
fall out from underneath them. And the final thing I'll
say is just I don't know that I could think
of like a more lateral offseason then going from Dennis Shreuder,
Malik Beasley, Simoni Fontacio to then Duncan Robinson Kasler for hurt.
Speaker 2: If if Beasley does end up signing back with them,
though this that that addresses a lot of I think
the concerns we share about their offense because like he's
he's just better than Duncan Robinson. Now having both is
even better because he is great because you can you
put a pair of like just.
Speaker 1: There, it's skeleton key.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so but I do think, yeah, I think
the best thing the Pistons can do is try to
figure out can we play Thompson and Holland together and
how do they compliment Caid?
Speaker 1: Probably not?
Speaker 2: Yeah, not well right now, But you've got to take
a look at that, and that's gonna hurt the bottom
line because you probably could get to the high forties
if you didn't prioritize developing these guys that I think
we both like a lot long term, Like if you
just play assume Beasley's back, play him more, uh play
Duncan Robinson a lot to get the floor space with
Tobias Harris, and you know, there's ways for the Pistons
to be better in the short term, I think, But
I think and I hope they won't pursue those because
they realize that it's just more valuable to get Thompson
and Holland, like real exposure in lineups that might, you know,
three years from now, be a Conference finals type of thing,
you know, Like, I think that's just that's part of
the reason we're both we both like them. But I think,
you know, just going with the same win totals last
year is just just feels about right.
Speaker 1: I think they would need to see an offensive leap
from either Holland or Thompson or end up trading for
not like an option, but like some type of a
different look at forward than Tobias Harris, or maybe even
more of a floor spacing five to give their lineups
a different feel for them to be Oh, we're like
a fifty win team now, I don't like And I
would almost say that I think it needs to happen externally.
And by when I say needs, I don't mean go
out and do it. Pistons. I think what they did
this offseason was like, I think that's the patients, is
the right play, but I don't see anything internally happen,
internally happening that would get them to fifty win territory.
Maybe that's an underestimation of Kate or some of the
young guys there though. Yeap, we are onto the Indiana
Pacers who do not have Tyre's Halbert and so they're
over under checks in at thirty six and a half.
Can I before reveal, can I tell you what my
first reaction was when I saw this, Please, I penciled
in my wins, and so when I did all that thing,
I went and I unblocked out the over unders, and
I thought I was being too generous with the amount
of wins that I was giving them. They got rid
of the entire identity of their team, Like when they
didn't get rid of He's got like he's injured, and
then you let someone else who's a huge part of
the identity of your offense, even if you want to
point to his shooting percentage in the NBA Finals in
Miles Turner to a center rotation that is Jay Huff,
Isaiah Jackson, James Wiseman's in there, we'll see see akaman
Obi topping at the five. It's become a cliche to
just cite their net rating together last year. What are
we I feel like they have that finals sheene. I
think we might be giving the Pacers too much credit
for what they could be without Tyres Haliburt and Miles
Turner on the roster and no no suitable replacements for either.
Speaker 2: I think to go over here, you have to be
so sold on play style, on Rick Carlisle, on just
this sort of collective we play harder than everybody, and
we move the ball more quickly than everybody approach, And
you have to be sold that all that works without
one of the single best offensive players in the league
and one of the like three centers that can space
the floor and defend the basket. So like that was
too much for me, it was too much for you.
We're both under pretty comfortably. I've got him at thirty
three wins, you've got him at thirty four thirty four,
So I mean you just I believe how Haliburton is
like a transcendent offensive like just changes everything about how
your team plays. And if you just don't get to say, well,
Nemhrt is gonna be pretty good there and Ben Matheren's
gonna shoot a lot more and can scale up. It's
just like, yeah, that might all be true. You don't
have Tyr's Haliburton, Like, that's just I'm not getting past that.
That's such a huge loss. And now TJ McConnell's gonna
start the season hurt too. So Nemhrd is just like
already got to guard the best guard on the other
team and now just is the only point guard. Like
what are It's just too much.
Speaker 1: And Ben Mathern playing for his next contract makes me
a littlequeasy. Not gonna lie.
Speaker 2: He's gonna get up this year. Dan, He's gonna shoot
a ton and.
Speaker 1: I think that that will contribute to their lottery quite
And that's by the way. I know it's taboo to
say that this team could pivot and decide to tank.
This team could pivot and decide that you don't have
they should probably they got their right and you could
do something where it's I know, like maybe a nem
hard and am they don't want to, like Neie Smith
don't want to be a part of that. But if
you just get to February and you're decidedly a thirty
six win basketball team. What else is there for you
to do? I am interested to relitigate the Tyres Haliburton trade.
When the Pacers win thirty three and the Kings win
thirty five, I think that's gonna that's gonna be a
really instructive discussion.
Speaker 2: That is not a case I thought we would be
reopening after last year.
Speaker 1: But here we are the Miami Heat grant. I'm gonna
spoil this one even though it's yours, and just let
you know that it's happening. Oh, they are my best
bet at thirty seven and a half, So I went
over that is why. That is why it's my best bet. Shocker, Uh,
they I have them at forty What do I have
them at forty four? Forty four wins? Their offense, they're
trying to play faster. It hasn't always looked great in
the preseason. I get it. Norman Powell is a perfect
fit for this team. I think Tyler Hero he's gonna
beginning the season injured, but he's better than people are expecting.
I don't expect Bam to shoot like nineteen percent at
the rim like he like the entire year, and I
know he had some iffy jump shooting numbers last year.
This team is kind of sneaky deep to me. I
think they found something with Nikoliovich in the starting lineup
and just what he's able to do even as a passer.
I think bring Khalil Wair off the bench that you
could stagger him and bam out of Baio makes all
the sense in the world when you look at what
Khalil Wheeler wants to do on offense, which is like
he doesn't want to just be in place in space,
like he wants to screen. He wants to be able
to move, he wants to do some things with the ball. Now,
they don't have an elite, you know, primary playmaker, ball
handler guy. That's what everyone wants to point out. I
think they can kind of piece meal together with Pelee
larsen Or. And I was not the biggest fan of
Casperis Yakacionas and then watching him not even more so
in Summer League, but through the preseason, he just sees
things and like even when he's not finishing, he gets
deep into the paint like he is drawing two to
the ball. Dad's going to open up the entire offense.
And I also kind of I like some of the
other guys too. Drew Smith, like just by the way,
tours Achilles in December and is already back paying basketball.
But that's insane. That's absolutely insane. I think this team
is deeper than people are crediting. And the final thing
I'll say is this is like kind of the team
that Eric Spolelscher was born to coach. It feels like
the expectations are pretty much gone. You don't have to
deal with the any star drama, and you don't have
I know, they only won thirty seven last year, so
it might think, oh, you traded Jimmy Butler midseason, still
only got to thirty seven, and you think they're gonna
be better not having a deal with the specter of
that BS and knowing how to like run your offense
without him there, I think winds up being a really
big deal. So I think they get to forty four.
I think they will. I don't know forty four. Will
have to look at does forty four get you in
the top six in the East. I'll look at my
standings it does, so I have them sixth in the
Eastern Conference. I think this is the team that we're
gonna look back on unless there's like a really big injury.
And I don't foresee them by the way they extend
to Jovic, So I don't see them being like, we
need to move Andrew Wiggins so we could his player
option from the whatever. I think that this team understands
if they get another star is gonna happen via trade.
So I don't think that they're gonna make that trade
this season. I just think that they're gonna come together
to be a really solid basketball team. And finally, I
say this knowing that statistically their offense has been dollshit
in the preseason.
Speaker 2: Well, so I think it's pretty clear over too. I'm
not quite as high as you are. I have them
at forty, just five hundred. I think the offense can
be in the on the high end, like the fifteen
to twenty range, and then the defense should be top ten,
and that's enough to be five hundred to me. I
like it's to get significantly below five hundred to hit
the under here. I don't know what you're thinking beyond
like a band other than like a BAM injury or something,
just because with you're getting full years.
Speaker 1: It knee the night we're recording this. By the way,
it's serious, but I.
Speaker 2: Just I just want everyone to know I didn't know that,
and it happened before I say Grant.
Speaker 1: Grant, much like me, does not watch games, so there
was no way of him of knowing.
Speaker 2: I manifested it accidentally. I just think full year of
Davion Mitchell, full year of Wiggins with plus BAM plus,
you can play like Pelo Larson's is gonna be fine.
Like we There's eleven dudes on this team that I
think will all compete and beat value adds on one
end or the other. I do think there are issues
with like and this has been the case with the
Heat forever, where if you're trying to score that means
you're playing Hero and Norm Powell together. That backward defense
is gonna suck. Or if you want to just play
your best defenders, get Davion Mitchell out there. I don't
believe in his shooting from last year. I think he's
gonna defend hard and be a you know, probably in
that positive player. But that's gonna be all on the
defensive side. It's gonna be difficult for them to feel
lineups that are competent on both ends. They're gonna almost
have to pick and choose. I think that's just to
me what a five hundred team looks like, though, so
thirty under thirty seven or fewer wins is hard to
get to, especially with like you said, this is like
compared to last year. This is just a normal basketball
team that Eric Bolster can coach how he wants without
any kind of nonsense going on.
Speaker 1: This is not related in the slightest. But did you
happen to take a look at that NBA GM survey.
I have not seen that yet, Dan, No, So twenty
nine gms because the heats GM can't front office can't
vote for Bam. Twenty nine other GMS made votes for
the most versatile defender in the NBA. I'm not even
saying Bam needed to win, even though he'd be my pick, grant,
he didn't receive a single vote. Isn't that absurd?
Speaker 2: That's rough. I he's he's on the short, very short
lists of players you would nominate for that, right, Like, Yeah,
that's that's what.
Speaker 1: I don't know. What happens with Dyson Daniels getting votes
was weird.
Speaker 2: Can't he can't guard centers, can't he isn't that part
of being versatile like Dyson Daniels.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't even know, Like, do you think
that it's just Bam has become So it feels like
he's become blah on offense to a lot of people,
and they let that kind of infect their overall view
of him. So he come, these discussions come up and
it's we're gonna go with the shiny new player, and
I'm and Thompson, even a sar Thompson, who I love,
gotta vote he was he's receiving votes. Yeah, like I'll
listen to Jaron Jackson, I'll listen to Manti Kamara, I'll
listen to Draymond Green. Their names will listen to. But
like I was, do not get a single vote?
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfair.
Speaker 1: I gave the Heat an extra win just because I'll
take Milwaukee Dan.
Speaker 2: They're over under his forty two and a half wins. Uh,
Just to recap Damian Lillard gone. They won forty eight
last year in large part because he was a very
helpful offensive player. Myles Turner in also a very helpful
offensive player, different position everywhere else on this roster. Man
there's a lot of minimum guys it's like Kyle Kuzma
sprinkled in there. Who's the bucks third best player?
Speaker 1: Damian Lillard's dead cap hit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard, right, Like I don't know Gary Trent.
I'm sure Aj Green Ryan Rollins because he's such a
good defender and everyone thinks he's gonna pop. I don't
even remember what I did. Okay, let's pull up a
numbers here. I went under by the slimmest of margins.
I went forty two. You went over forty three, slimmest
of margins. This is just Giannis is great. Right that
that's like kind of the end of my analysis because
I don't believe in almost anything else other than Turner
is a good fit next to him.
Speaker 1: Right, And it's it's also it's we're so close, we
were within a win. Honestly, it is borderline reckless having
them over forty at this point because they're just like
one Yannis twisted ankle away from being the third worst
team in the East. But the other thing is we
haven't talked about the rumor from Shams that he wanted
to go to the Knicks over the offseason, which shout
out me. Obviously. That's first and foremost, but second of all,
Doc Rivers had come out and said like, oh, that
felt kind of like a Ukabe initial report, and so
you expanded upon the reporting of it. No, Giannis is
just saying all these things. He doesn't remember a discussion
he had with your owner. He's talked about how he
could change his mind in the future. You needed to
sign his entire family tree to some sort of NBA
con to keep him happy. And the biggest justification for
the Alex Attenta Cupo signing is well, he's been on
the herd for a while. That doesn't change on the herd,
it's not until to hit. Some people think he's a
legitimate prospect, that's fine, but like you guaranteed to NASA's
sustent to Coupo's contract, it's just there's I don't think
he gets traded mid season because that would just be
so hard to work. We did just see Luca Dontrich
and Anthony Davis get traded in the same transaction though,
so maybe not mid season. But I'm just it's almost
reckless of me to say like they're gonna have a
winning record, even though Giannis has like wandering eyes to
the up teams degree, the only thing that you can
cling to. And I don't mean to make this all
about the trade. Is he kind of said, like, no,
you think about your future right up until the start
of the regular season and then you stop. So I
respect that, but I also think that like low key,
like he's the biggest troll in the NBA with the
way that he kind of runs the tables on his
future and it's just he openly flip flops. There's a
part of me that respects it. And then is also
just this feels like a ticking time bomb at this point.
Speaker 2: And I mean, the practical side of what you're talking
about is that his actions have put the Bucks in
position where they've just mortgaged their future over and over
and over again to try to keep him happy. And
the result is Yannis Dame, dead, cap hit, Miles Turner,
and one of the worst rosters in the league outside
of those guys. Right, Like, this is a team where
you said it like a Yannis injury, it's tweaked ankle.
Milwaukee's drawing dead every night, like they just they they're
not gonna win games if he's not there, and he's
going to miss time because he's getting older, and it's
just he does. So the fact that we're both over
five hundred is really just a testament to he's one
of the five best players in the league, and when
he's available, the Bucks can beat anybody because he's great
and like end of analysis. I mean, I don't want
to put words in your mouth, but that's really sort
of where I'm at. Here's my question to you.
Speaker 1: What's more likely they get to forty eight or more
wins or Jannis gets traded by the February fifth dead line?
Speaker 2: Uh Yiannis gets traded. I just don't see. I don't
see a forty eight win team here, even if Jannis
is very, very healthy, I don't know how you get there.
Speaker 1: Next up, we have your New York Knicks. They are
a fifty two and a half. How do you feeling
about that number?
Speaker 2: You'll be delighted to know. I think they will win
more than fifty two and a half game stand.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but is it fewer than seventy, because then I'm
going to be.
Speaker 2: A little fewer, a little bit less. I have them
fifty three, you have met fifty seven. I don't know
fifty five.
Speaker 1: Let's fifty five?
Speaker 2: Sorry, I looked at the twenty seven there, fifty five
for you, fifty three for me. We're both over. I
think there's I think this could go into the high
fifties if they want to. I don't know if they do.
But if the number one seed is there and Cleveland
is worse than we think at that fifty six and
a half number, who knows, they might push for it.
I just think they're better, They're deeper. They you know,
if Mitch Robinson is fully healthy and plays as much
as he can, Mike Brown's gonna deploy this team, maybe
more sensibly than Tom Thibodeau did. I don't know. I
feel pretty good about the over even though I'm very
close to it. Is there, though, Dan like part of
the switch from Tibbs to Mike Brown is he's not
gonna run his best players into the ground, and that's
going to lower your regular season win total ceiling. Is
that something to think about or is just the overall
package better so they'll win more.
Speaker 1: I think that's actually fair to consider, and I don't
believe that they're actually as deep as people are making
them out. I just feel like Jordan Clarkson at the
minimum is getting a lot of more love than he
like warrants. What I will say though, is like watching
them in the preseason, there are two things that really
stand out. They are gonna get to Douce McBride plus
the other four starters units. It won't be the starting lineup,
even though I think it should be. They're gonna get
to it. They're also gonna get to other five out units,
like with the bench where like Ershon Yabuseli and Karmafi
Towns are playing together, or maybe it's just Yabucelli at
the five, and they're also so Last season six, about
six seven percent of the Knicks's minutes came in what
would be called three guard lineups. That number is I
think gonna triple. And that's gonna increase your number of
five outlooks. And yes you'll be smaller, but like you're
gonna be way more versatile on the offensive end. Then,
and I think that they telegraph this. We've seen it
in the preseason, but I think they telegraphed this by
saying we want two of Landry Shammick, Gareth and Matthews
and Malcolm Brogdon on this roster. I think that spells
good things for their offense. I still don't know what
to make of the Karl Anthony Towns needs to spend
a lot of time a power forward when the whole
idea of him is as a floors basing five. I
really like the concept of og Ananobi and Mike Brown's offense,
the fact that they're playing faster, they are getting up
more threes. I think that there's I don't know that
I feel comfortable saying that they could beat X amount
of teams in a seven game series, Like, you know,
how do they match up with Cleveland, how they match
up with Okay, see how they match up with Denver,
those elite teams. But I really think that this is
a team that doesn't need to run its players into
the ground and is gonna be deployed in such a
way on the offensive end that they're gonna be so
good and that if they wanted to, they could get
to sixty, but that there will be some pullback there
and just even just a couple other notes like McHale
bridges seems like they are because there's some extra spacing there,
getting all the way into the paint on his drives
and not bailing out. There's just I think there's gonna
be a lot of smaller things or medium sized things
that they get better at that are going to help
them just be in the mid fifties while having Okay,
Jayalen runs in, it's not gonna be you know, Mchal
Bridges is playing forty seven minutes in a thirty point
win over the Hornets in January or whatever it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do you think it's fair to say that
under fifty. I know it's not the over runner, but
if they win in the forties, something happened, right, Like
this is just a fifty win because of the high
end talent, the way they'll be coached, and even though
I agree maybe the depth is overblown, but like this
is a fifty win team. They have to win over fifty, right.
Speaker 1: I think there's like a lot riding on this season.
I don't know if there's If you count the number
of teams that have the most on the line this
year to where you could see their roster like really
being changed, it's the Knicks, that Cavs, and like maybe
the Nuggets, but like not really Minnesota. Perhaps, so the
Knicks are just like they need to be in the fifties.
They need to make I won't go as far as
the NBA Finals. They need to do better in the
Eastern Conference Finals than they did last year. It's it's
high stakes. What's interesting about them, though, Grant is I
think that they're shallower than people are saying. But I
also kind of feel like they're in a situation where's
they only have one player they can't lose, And I
think you could even say, if you did lose John
Brunton for a spell, like you could probably carve out
enough offense with Bridges and Ananobi and Duced McBride in
a Mike Brown system.
Speaker 2: You could break even I think I think that's the over.
You know, if you've lost them for ten games, that's
not out of the question.
Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of them on defense,
by the way, would be the other like if you
were trying if we were trying to make the case
for the under sid from injuries, it's okay the Mitchell
Robinson minutes, Sure, yeah, But I just don't know, Like
I don't know the defense. I feel like a lot
of people are just kind of penciling it in for
like fifteenth or sixteenth, and I think if you can
get to a point where they're saying they're gonna use
mckal bridges, not at the point of attack, away from
the ball more. That's if you're able to do that,
that's probably the best recipe for it.
Speaker 2: I'm actually more concerned with their playoff defense than regular
season because I can't get what Andrew said on the
look Ahead we did out of my head about what
if Atlanta just spams picking rolls against Brunson and kat
like in a playoff series or hunts those two? How
do you what do you do?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 2: That's not a regular season thing, because nobody's like scouting
you to within an inch of your life and using
their absolute A plus option against you over and over.
That's a playoff thing, So that I am concerned about,
But it doesn't affect their regular season win total for me.
Speaker 1: Well, all right, but then also we have to kind
of factor in that February Yanish trade. That'll probably give
them a nice little bump, right.
Speaker 2: So just like you pull the clip this and we'll
come back and we'll redo it after they trade for him.
Speaker 1: Who's up next?
Speaker 2: Orlando Magic kind of along with Atlanta, but almost to
a greater extent, like the Riser in the East. I
would say they're over. Under is fifty and a half,
added Desmond Bain, added Tyas Jones, Pallo Banker, and Franz Wagner.
Still definitely young enough to improve. Hopefully Jalen sugg is healthier.
That is a very good number. It was not good
enough for either of us to go over. We've got
them both at a matching forty nine wins. I will
just say that Jalen Suggs not being ready to start
the season is a huge concern for me because that's
not someone Tyas Jones does not replace him. That's not
Anthony Black does not replace him. Desmond Bain is a
good facilitator for a two he does doesn't replace him,
So that's a that's a big deal for me. I
think Suggs is one of the most important starters on
any like you know, of the good teams in the East,
and that injury has has me a little worried. I
like basically everything else they do. I think their defense
will be good. I think Polo should be better. Uh,
forty nine wins is what eight more than last year.
So this is not to say that we don't like Orlando.
I think we both have them third in the conference.
But for me, it's the Suggs thing, and for me
it's I'd still like to see Franz Wagner prove he
can shoot a three, uh, and really Pollo for that
matter too.
Speaker 1: Also, I mean, Jace Richardson can shoot threes.
Speaker 2: Maybe he's gonna play. I think he's he's really gonna
he's gonna matter.
Speaker 1: He honestly, he's probably gonna usurp Ties Jones in rotation
at some point. I would think my thing with them
is their secondary or because their secondary wing depth is
not great, Like you're trusting no Apenda, like there's a
lot riding on Tristan de Silva. They still don't have
enough shooting on this team. You kind of alluded to
it with the Suggs injury, but the fact that young
Suggs has had one really good shooting season where he's
also been healthy one and he's been the league for
four years. So it's just like we're just assuming that
Desmond Bane's enough and then Tires Jones enough, even though
we kind of know that Tiers Jones isn't gonna play
that many minutes. If Jamal Moseley continues his mo of
favoring the guys who are going to give you more defense,
So fifteen and a half is just high. And then
also how many minutes and games can Jonathan Isaac play
in Wendell Carter Junior feels like he's due to deal
with something. I don't think. You don't worry about Palo
and Franz specifically, but the Franz thing on offense, I
just don't like. I think he needs to shoot threes
because he's the one that's playing the more traditional wing
wing position. At this point, still going to be a
really good team, and I actually think that they're as
constructed right now without making any other moves or caking
in any leaps from someone we're not accounting for. They're
a scarier playoff team than they are a regular season team,
which I feel like maybe you should flip flop, because
don't a lot of people think that like uggling it
up and playing elite defense is a way to win
a bunch of games in the regular season. Just based
off what we've seen from them in the playoffs so far,
every team that's played them has sort of felt them.
And so if you just have Desmond Baine scoring and
shooting through the muck. I think it makes you a
lot more dangerous there than in a regular season setting.
Speaker 2: But we'll say, what do you think about this idea
that like, well, I don't know, I'm trying to tear
the East here, and I think if you told if
I told you that Suggs is gonna play sixty games
and the other four starters Baane, Benkaro, Wagner, and I
assume Wendell Carter Junior, also Wendell Carter Junior is not
gonna shoot like twelve percent from three. Again, if all
those guys play sixty plus, this team is way closer
to the New York or Cleveland tier than it is
to like the Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee tier in the East. Right,
It's like they're they kind of belong up there with
those guys if they get decent health from all the
key guys you know in the I don't know, top
seven or eight of the rotation.
Speaker 1: I think I'm with you because what you said earlier
in the podcast about what if they're not I don't
think they're on the same level right now's better? But
you just said, like what if Evan Moble just gets better,
and like he's like the sixty seven wins superstar Pallo
has that type of ceiling. It's really just for him.
It's oh, did he take five three pointers a game
and hit thirty seven percent of them? And then it's oh,
crap the other the one. The final thing too, that
worries me about the scene is I guess it's very
clear that they're just never still gonna get out and transition.
That is that just disallowed in Orlando. I don't understand it.
Speaker 2: Also, you talked about kind of a make or break
or pivotal like this is kind of a Jamal Moseley,
what do you got that season? Because the talent's there
now uh and and I think if if it's proven
again that like he gets guys to play hard and
he's got a defensive scheme that works, but the offense
is just not like up to par for what the
talent needs it to be. He might be somebody that's
not back.
Speaker 1: I will say we didn't have this as a category,
but if I was to pick my least confident bet,
I think this would be it because you could you
laid out the case or this team is winning in
the mid fifties, but.
Speaker 2: For sure Yeah, it's a very scary under, but I
think we've I think there's real reasons to go under
though by a tiny bit.
Speaker 1: We are also a fearless people at this podcast we have.
This is fucked it. Do we even have to do this?
I like, the Sixers are forty two and a half
and here I want to preface everything that we're about
to talk about with this is that they're either gonna
win twelve games or sixty. There's just no in between
for that. There's just no in between for the cities.
Is there? What is the scenario on which they get
to forties? I just don't like it comes down to
how many games do you think Joel Embiid and Paul
George are gonna play in? To me, yeah that's it.
Speaker 2: And guess what nobody knows. So like, I feel like
this over under just splits the difference in what you're
talking about. Like this, the ceiling and the floor are
so far apart. We both again, this is another ridiculous
when we both had him at forty two, which I
think I can imagine. It's just at the same time
across the country, we both just like threw our hands
up and we're like I don't know, man, whatever, and
like that's real.
Speaker 1: Weren't you hope? I really was hoping they were gonna
be like a thirty six and a half or something
that felt a little bit or like a forty nine,
like something that forty seven and a half or forty
seven thirty six and a half. That would have made
it easier because what is okay, they get the forty
two wins? How many games do you think Joelle Embiid
needs to play in for them to be exactly forty two?
Because if he plays in like sixty five, there's no
way they're just a forty two win team.
Speaker 2: Right, because that would if he's playing that often, it's
a pretty good bet that he's actually looking pretty good
and playing not like he's played the last year. So right, like,
if he plays that much, he's probably gonna be pretty good,
and so they'll blow this number away because he'll just
be like an all NBA version of himself.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, so even sixty if you said he played,
because he's not gonna playhim back to back, So there
goes like fifteen or sixteen games whatever right off the bat.
So if he plays him fifty five or sixty, like
don't you just assume they're a forty two win team.
Speaker 2: I think there might be better than that. I'm assaying
he's gonna play in like thirty or forty.
Speaker 1: You know that, I think so. I'm trying to figure
out what would be the case to go how many
games does Joelle and Be need to play in for
you to have been Oh, I'm gonna go with the over.
Speaker 2: I mean, sixty would definitely do it.
Speaker 1: Forty fifty and my.
Speaker 2: Pats tempting to say forty two just for some symmetry.
I he's he needs to play at least half the season,
so forty one for them to get to forty two wins. No,
I don't know. Do you see what I'm saying though?
About how like, if if he plays, if he plays,
let's just use that forty one. If he only plays
forty one games, I would assume that means that there's
a there's fits and starts to him coming back. He
does the thing where he plays a couple games, Oh,
there's niece soreness, he misses two weeks. He's terrible for
the first three games, and then he looks like himself,
and then he tweaks something and he's in and out
so like he needs to. But if he plays sixty five,
that means he had prolonged stretches of what I assume
is gonna be like pretty Embiid like play. So if
he's at that number, like yeah, they win fifty or whatever,
fifty whatever it is right and then honestly, like the
Paul George of it all like doesn't really matter that
much to me. I think, I think at this stage
of his career, like he's not an All Star anymore,
so it's like you can't tie. It'd be like tying
the Heat's success to like Andrew Wiggins or something that's
maybe a bit of a slight but it's like, I'm
not expecting All star play from Paul George. He's a
really good player, but like Tyres Maxie matters more right,
like HEAs just I think pretty clearly. So yeah, I
don't know this is I don't know what else is
say about this team, just like we agreed they could
win next to nothing or they could be second in
the East, like and anything in between.
Speaker 1: If you were evaluating this team completely without Joel Embiid,
what would their ceiling be? Is it either the ceiling
my question, So you know Joel Ebe is not gonna
play at all? Can they even get to forty to
five hundred?
Speaker 2: I think this roster without Joel Embiid is probably like
is it worse than Milwaukee's just if you get Paul
Georgia and you yeah, they've got more talent, I think,
right vj Edgecomb, Yeah, there's more I saw. I'd say
it's funny like with or without Embiid, I might have
their by their window to like right around forty two,
what is happening when you leave this team alone?
Speaker 1: You right? But you pointed out in the middle of
it to where it's if he's only playing in like
a middle rung number of games, it's the stop and
start of it all that due to his rhythm everyone
else's rhythm. And they've talked about like trying to install
an offense that's not as reliant and Joel Embiid or
he's playing a different way, So does that make them
better equipped to deal with him going in and out
of the line. It feels a little Pelicans with Zion.
He remember when it felt like they were building their
team to where it's we need to be good in
the event that he doesn't play rather than we need
to maximize. It's not as stark for sure in Philly,
because I think a lot of the talent can compliment him.
I also like, are they gonna be better? They'll be
better offensively than defensively, I think because it's who's the
wing they have justin Edwards and Edgecomb and like who
are their wing defenders? What is Paul George doing? The
backup center rotation? Is kind of if he.
Speaker 2: The Quentin Grimes of it all? Who like what's his yeah,
commitment level gonna be? How like what is role gonna be?
Who knows this is a confounding team. We're both under
We don't feel confident about anything.
Speaker 1: Who is next up?
Speaker 2: A Toronto? The over under for the Toronto Raptors is
thirty eight and a half wins. Uh quick recap. They
have a lot of very talented players and none of
them seem to fit well together. Uh, they'll start quickly
beart Ingram Barnes and Yaka Perle. Shooting is going to
be a challenge. I think they should be a pretty
good defensive team, like maybe even a very good defensive team,
and then they also depend this is this number is
complicated by the fact that, like there's a lot of
young and even unproven guys that will have rotation roles
and we don't even we're not even sure like which
ones that'll be of the like Grady Dick, Jacobe Walter
Jamal like Shed Mobo, Like there's.
Speaker 1: Colin Murray Boyle.
Speaker 2: Is gonna callin Murray Boyles? Like what where does he
fit into this? Like he fits very well in some
of the wrong ways with with like how skews talent wise,
you know. So, yeah, so let's just put the numbers up.
I've got them going over this at forty one and
forty one, and you've got them beating it by more
at forty three and thirty nine. Why it figures it out, man,
that's what you're I mean, that's not that's not like
the wrong approach.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it is is that the
two things actually it's the same for both players, even
three of their players. I think perception is just veered
too far away from positive with Scottie Barnes and Manuel
Quickly and Brandon Ingram. Brand Ingram shot more threes last
year before he was injured. There's value in having what
he does on the ball. I also look at how RJ.
Barrett's usage type changed when he came to Toronto. Are
you telling me Brendan Ingram's incapable of being used in
a similar capacity. Now, if you're telling me that he's
not gonna be able to do anything off the ball,
or that he's going to not even be able to
catch the ball with like running in ahead of steam,
let's have a different conversation. But then there's still Emmanuel Quickly,
one of the most lethal off ball and on ball
shooters in the league. Now there needs to be some
change with his drives. Can he facilitate better, can he
get deeper into the paint, and if he doesn't, can
the float or at least begin to fall. Scottie Barnes,
what does the shooting look like. Scotty Barnes is a
really good player. And then as you kind of mentioned,
there's a chance that they can be borderline defensive monsters
like I think Calin Murray Boyles could come if he
was gonna be a regular rotation players rookie, and he'll
just be excellent on defense right off the bat, which
we've kind of seen more players of his archetype come
in as rookies and just leave like this huge dent
on the defensive end. There's a ton of talent here,
so it's some of it's ill fitting, but none of
it feels like it's fatally flawed. And you would for
me to now this is one of the numbers where
it's you could talk me into the under without maybe
going into injuries. But you're kind of saying that brandon
Ingram has no hope of making waves on this team.
And you look at the some of the base lineups
when they've on the rare occasions we've seen Scottie, Barnes,
Peerl and Emmanuel quickly play together like they've been really good.
So you're adding brandon Ingram into that equation, and it's
why why do you get worse in that scenario?
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a really smart way to look
at it, because maybe I'm just telling on myself, but like,
I don't know why it is. But when it comes
to the Raptors, we're all just focusing on like what
they're very good players don't do well, you know, like
all brandon Ingram doesn't shoot enough threes and he doesn't defend.
He's very screenable Scotty Barnes can't shoot quickly, can't say
like all those guys are just like no questions asked
NBA starters and like Barnes and quickly have upside right,
Like I just I think, I don't know why it is,
but it's just so much easier to focus on the
poor fit and like the couple of deficiencies that these
guys have, We're like, they're all really good. It's and
I think, you know, talent maybe will figure it out.
And what if Scott again definitely not the mobile level,
probably not the Bankaro level, but what if Scotty Barnes
just levels up and he just becomes a legitimate star,
Like that's absolutely in the like, that's in the realm
of possibility.
Speaker 1: This season, what's interesting is it feels like so much
of the concern in part because that's where so much
of the talent is, but is rooted in what's happening
on the perimeter. And then I look at the center
rotation and Yaka Purtle is a good player, but his
utility feels very context driven, and I don't love the
context of this team for him and certain lineups, sure,
but in what like with the brand if you ever
want to play Brandon Ingram r J Barrett, Scottie Barnes together.
I don't love him there and they don't have I
don't like enough change ups at the center spot, Like
maybe Mamu can come in and stretch the floor. Then
that gets really interesting, but then you're losing guy he is.
But that's uncomfortable. That's an uncomfortable spot to be in. Also,
I think someone flying under the radar, they like they
need Oachai aquadity to just be really good, Like that
was like he's three and d plays within himself. They
need that type, especially if I don't know what Grady
Dick is anymore. He had that hot start to the season,
seemed like he was gassed. I love what he could do,
is like kind of a movement guy, and in theory
of everything he does on offense, it does seem like
I'm curious, And this is more of a general question.
Do you think it gets easier for him to be
better now that if everyone's healthy, there's a very clear
pecking order and he is just not in the top
three or four options on this team, and so it
gets easy You're to kind of I don't want to say,
box him into a role, but put him into a
role where he doesn't have to try to do too much.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say specialize. Yeah, I think. I
think maybe there is a case. I do think too,
Like there's a version of this team where Agbaji just
becomes like vintage Contavious called Will Pope and he fits
way better than R. J. Barrett in that spot. And
then everyone's talking about they'll trade Barrett for somebody that
fits better. But if Bob, it's a stretch. If he
if he's just a pure two that shoots a ton
of threes and defends and doesn't really do anything else,
Like the Raptors need that guy, I think because Barrett's
not that guy. Barrett wants to put the ball on
the floor and like he's good at like he's good
at that, it's just there's not gonna be room for
him to do it. Does best?
Speaker 1: Do you know where some of R. J. Barrett's best
moments on a really good team came when he was
in bench heavy units with the Knicks. Sure, so if
that's what the role for him is in Toronto now,
that's that could end up working out really well. So
like him and Yaka Pertle of the two that I
look at it. I don't know what their future is
with this team, but it's not Argae Barre specifically. I'm
higher on I think his fit that I would be purdles.
But a lot of people believe that I underestimate Pearl,
which is kind of fine. At this point, I would
ask you what's more likely this team wins forty five
plus games or like wins only thirty five? Uh so
forty five or more? Thirty five or less? That took it.
That was a journey for me to give you that question.
Speaker 2: I'd go the forty five or more high.
Speaker 1: Is that weird? No?
Speaker 2: I just think there's too many good players like now, again,
this is sort of a higher level thing like that,
it's more a playoff thing. Should they Should they advance
that far where your deficiencies just get magnified. But this's
just enough. There's enough talent here, there's enough size, there's
enough like defense for sure to the floor's pretty high here.
I don't know how the ceiling's not fifty five, but
forty five is not crazy. They could they could easily
do that.
Speaker 1: Last up, we have the Washington Wizards twenty and a half.
That's higher than last year in the Wizards.
Speaker 2: Would be hard to be lower. I was looking, I
told you off air, I was looking at our last
year's overrunners, and I forget who had what, but there
there was a thirteen and a fifteen in there, which
actually that's comically low. I'll just spoil it. I don't
have any overrunners any win total that low. They had
the point differential of a fourteen win team last year.
So you've got him winning ten more, You've got him
at twenty four wins. I've got him at nineteen, So
you're over. I'm under. That's more fun. This is a
really young team that other than like so here's maybe
the way to put it is this, who do you
see of their first and second year crop of players?
And let's say third because kol Bali is more fun
to include, has like an all star ceiling in the future.
Speaker 1: Great question. I think it's still cool Bali and sar
I have. Maybe we'd have to see what Trey Jones
looks like at the NBA, but it's just like what
is he? I don't know what to make of him
as a playmaker type of like what would beach his
I just call him Trade Jones. Trey Johnson. Yeah, what
would be Trey Johnson's like NBA comp is he?
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna shoot great. I just don't know
if he's gonna do anything else. So what does that
look like as a pure to really probably right, Like
he's not someone that's gonna.
Speaker 1: I think I think it's probably like a Tyler hero
What does that make sense?
Speaker 2: Like that stuff got? Do you think he's got heroes
on ball stuff?
Speaker 1: I think he can get there, at least as a playmaker.
I've seen some people say Devin Booker feels a little rich.
I don't think he's Cam Thomas, but with a three
more of a three. I don't think that's a like
the Cam Thomas of three point shooters. I mean not
because Cam Thomas has like a really deep on ball
bag that Trey Johnson doesn't just yet.
Speaker 2: So well, it's a weird position. It's a position type
that's not in favor. But I think he might be
really good as that type of player still.
Speaker 1: Right, So I think it's the two we have them
on screen as black hole, Bally and Alex are Now
I don't see any of them actualizing that this season.
But what I do trust about the Wizards is that
they have so many dudes. When you look at Bob Carrington,
Corey Kisspert, Chris Middleton and CJ mccalmer on this team, Keijean,
George cam Whitmore, justin Champagny, like there's like I even
I really like Will Riley, so there's there. Their big
man rotation kind of sucks after Alex Aar. I still
don't know why Tristan Vukesovich is only on a two way.
I'm not a Marvin Bagley guy. Maybe they're just gonna
run like freaking small in certain instances without star on
the court. I think the problem, the actual strongest argument
for me is maybe not the talent yet. Yeah, they
don't have a ton of top tier town. It doesn't
seem like they just have so much of it that
I could see them being greater than the sum of
their parts. Where really gets me is I don't know
what their identity would be. I don't look at this
team and say they're definitely like, oh, they can do
this on offense, they could do this on defense. I
think they actually have the potential to be like super
Rangy Malleable Versatilen disruptive on the defensive end. Just looking
at Kool Bali, Sar Keishawn George, I think that that
for me is where I'm at with them, but I
don't feel great about it.
Speaker 2: I just think I think their key guys are really
far away still, And even that even extends to Kolbali,
like I defensively, I think he's pretty close to just
being like that's a starting caliber defender and maybe better
than that. Everybody else just seems like we're still in
the growing pains stage and the Wizards should absolutely play
all these guys as much as they possibly can, and
it'll be bad just because I don't think there's an
a shot creator here. So I think offense is going
to be a struggle. I don't think there's like Sar
has potential. I don't think there's an anchor defensively, and
certainly not one that won't make a bunch of mistakes.
So it's just this is what you get with a
with a young, deliberate rebuild that hasn't like hasn't quite
selected the guy that is emerging as a cornerstone piece.
There are options here, but they're just they're really far away.
So I went under I. You know, anytime you pick
a win total in the teens, it's kind of like,
statistically that's probably dumb.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: But I just think they're pretty clearly worse than Brooklyn
because the Wizards don't have the Brooklyn option of like
we can we can play five NBA caliber veterans if
we want to. The Wizards can't really do that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean so they would have. Yeah, it's Middleton,
it's CJ. McCollum. And then I guess you're just saying
like they're young guys or something like even the cool
Bali has been, there is still so much of an
unknownment anyway.
Speaker 2: He's just he's he's more prospect than like current helpful player.
Speaker 1: I also don't think schematically like Brian Keith has shown
the level that Jody Fernandez.
Speaker 2: I think that's very very true. Uh, yeah, I agree
with that.
Speaker 1: That was it. That was a journey for us. Was
its a lot of fun. I'm excited to go fifteen
and oh, which means that you're gonna have to go
I think a twelve and three or something. Well, we
were in pretty lockstep a lot of the time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So definitely I will be rooting for the Wizards
to fail and you'll be all about them this year,
just so you can come out at least one ahead
of me?
Speaker 1: Did you have your shakiest? But the only thing I
was gonna ask you is who's my shakiest? Bet was
the who did I pick? It was? Orlando? I went
under on fifty? Who was your sort of shakiest? Was it? Philly?
Feels like the default.
Speaker 2: By definition Philly shaky? But I'll honestly Cleveland under I
just don't feel great about because that's they're gonna win
eight fewer games than last year. Like that's that's that's hard,
that's hard to get to. But yeah, Orlando's Orlando's another one,
like why aren't they winning fifty? Everybody thinks they're winning fifty.
Speaker 1: Well, we did this in under seventy five minutes, so
you're welcome or or we're sorry for that. But before
Grant goes and takes us out, just want remind everyone
to please go check out the look Ahead series. Bounce
around Spotify, Apple, wherever you proadcast YouTube. We have a
playlist of all the look aheads is where when this releases,
we'll have Miami, Boston, and Toronto left and so most
of the teams are up and out. Go watch and
listen to them. Please please do other call to action.
Speaker 2: Get your over unders in join our discord links for
that in YouTube and podcast description, you can win cool
stuff and come on the pod, like come on, that'll
be that'll be fun. And and by definition, if you
get to come on the pod, you will do that
because you beat us, So that'll be fun for you
to come on here. And I don't know, lord it
over us or or be graceful in victory. It's up
to you.
Speaker 1: I suppose what is graceful in victory? I don't know.
That sounds so cool?
Speaker 2: Was seeing like what's the great? What's something in defeat?
Like I can't it's late for me, even though it's
three hours later for you. So I'm losing my word power.
Uh so I'm gonna take us out great reviews, subscribe,
do all that stuff, tell your friends, tell your enemies again,
do the over unders. It's fun, and.
Speaker 1: Develop Google doc if you're not a discord person, but
go in the discord and talking the discord. We like
seeing what other people are having conversations without us in there,
So join the discord. Put the link to the Google doc.
I will put it. Maybe I'll make a community post
on YouTube. But go It's in the podcast and YouTube description.
It takes like what you're just going over, unders. We're
not asking for record production. It takes you three minutes.
So go in there.
Speaker 2: And I threw darts. It was really took.
Speaker 1: That was the thinking out of it, that was very
clearly based on your wizards analysis like that became very good.
Speaker 2: Shouts Frankly King. Apologies, Charnel