Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily polls for
Speaker 1: May one, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin just closed its best
Speaker 1: month in a year, and somehow the market is still scared.
Speaker 1: Let's get into it, but first a quick word from
Speaker 1: our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. Bitcoin closed April
Speaker 1: up twelve percent, best monthly gain in a year. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETF's pulled in two billion dollars across the month, the
Speaker 1: biggest ETF month of twenty twenty six so far, and
Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed Index sitting at twenty six. That's
Speaker 1: deep fear territory. Here's the split screen that's been defining
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. Institutional money is buying what retail is
Speaker 1: scared to touch. Two billion dollars flowing into bitcoin ETFs,
Speaker 1: while the average crypto investor is checking their portfolio and
Speaker 1: closing the tab. And there's one more data point that
Speaker 1: caught my eye. Strategy you know them as micro strategy,
Speaker 1: just posted its first positive month since July. That's the
Speaker 1: most leverage bitcoin proxy on Wall Street. When that finally
Speaker 1: stops bleeding, something is shifting underneath the surface. So where
Speaker 1: does that leave the rest of the market. Well, it's complicated.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin sitting around seventy eight thousand dollars right now, up
Speaker 1: a couple percent on the day, but still range bound
Speaker 1: below that eighty thousand dollars wall that's been capping every
Speaker 1: rally attempt. Ethereum and Solana are following along, but neither
Speaker 1: has any real conviction behind the move. DeFi total value
Speaker 1: locked is around eighty four billion dollars. Stable Coin supply
Speaker 1: is basically flat, just over three hundred and eighteen billion,
Speaker 1: and barely moved this week. That last number matters more
Speaker 1: than it sounds. Flat stable coin supply means there isn't
Speaker 1: a lot of fresh cash sitting on the sidelines ready
Speaker 1: to deploy. That's not the setup you want heading into
Speaker 1: a potential breakout. Also worth flagging, Bitcoin dominance jumped over
Speaker 1: a percentage point today and is sitting somewhere around fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent. When when it rises alongside of fear reading
Speaker 1: like twenty six points, it usually means capital is consolidating
Speaker 1: into Bitcoin, specifically, not spreading out into alts. The alt
Speaker 1: coin recovery story is on pause, all right, So what's
Speaker 1: actually driving all this? Let's get into the stories. First. Up,
Speaker 1: Mega F the new Ethereum Layer two chain launched its
Speaker 1: token this week, and total value locked surged nearly three
Speaker 1: hundred percent in seven days. That is the biggest Layer
Speaker 1: two debut of twenty twenty six. Mega F is the
Speaker 1: real time EVM chain that's been claiming sub millisecond block times. Basically,
Speaker 1: it processes transactions faster than almost anything else out there.
Speaker 1: But here's what's actually interesting. While Mega F was eating
Speaker 1: everyone's lunch, Manta Pacific loss about sixteen percent of its
Speaker 1: total value locked. This week, Sonium dropped around fourteen percent.
Speaker 1: Plume network shed roughly twelve percent. Capital doesn't spread evenly
Speaker 1: across layer twos. It concentrates around the new thing. This
Speaker 1: is Layer two Darwinism playing out in real time. The
Speaker 1: question to watch does Mega s total value locked hold
Speaker 1: above launch levels through next week. If it does without
Speaker 1: relying on token incentives to keep people in, those are
Speaker 1: real users. If total value locked craters within seven days,
Speaker 1: it was a farm and dump and the narrative dies
Speaker 1: with it. Next. SBI Holdings, Japan's largest financial conglomerate, is
Speaker 1: in talks to acquire a stake in Japanese crypto exchange
Speaker 1: bit Bank, aiming for subsidiary status, not a partnership ownership.
Speaker 1: This is the same playbook traditional finance has been running
Speaker 1: in the US for two years. Absorb crypto infrastructure rather
Speaker 1: than compete with it. SBI already has positions in crypto
Speaker 1: custody lending and XRP payments. Adding a domestic exchange locks
Speaker 1: in the full stack. The window for independent crypto exchanges
Speaker 1: in Asia to stay independent is closing now. This one
Speaker 1: world Liberty Financial, the DeFi project with political ties, has
Speaker 1: a governance vote passing right now with almost unanimous approval.
Speaker 1: The vote covers token unlocks for early supporters, founders, and partners.
Speaker 1: Closes May sixth. When a governance vote passes with basically
Speaker 1: no opposition, that's not community consensus, that's insiders voting to
Speaker 1: pay themselves. The token already fell after the vote was announced.
Speaker 1: Critics are calling it a scam, and the real risk
Speaker 1: isn't the vote itself, it's what happens when those unlocked
Speaker 1: tokens actually hit the open market. Early supporters and founders
Speaker 1: don't typically hold. They sell a couple of quick hits
Speaker 1: before we move on with SABI protocol got hacked this week.
Speaker 1: The team acknowledged it and a post mortem is coming.
Speaker 1: This adds to a grim twenty twenty six taally over
Speaker 1: a billion dollars stolen across nearly seventy separate incidents this year.
Speaker 1: That's not a one off. That's a systemic security p
Speaker 1: problem across the space and Bit Them, one of South
Speaker 1: Korea's biggest exchanges just got a legal reprieve. A sole
Speaker 1: court issued an injunction halting the six month operating suspension
Speaker 1: that regulators had imposed. Bit Them stays open while the
Speaker 1: appeal works through the courts. Good news for Korean traders
Speaker 1: and a reminder that regulatory battles in Asia are far
Speaker 1: from over all. Right, before we get into the risks,
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about what to watch for. Three things I'm watching closely
Speaker 1: right now. First, that fear and greed reading of twenty
Speaker 1: six against two billion dollars in ETF inflows. This divergence
Speaker 1: has to resolve either retail capitulates and sells into institutional hands,
Speaker 1: which is actually how a lot of bottoms form or
Speaker 1: institutions are early and the next leg down proves them wrong.
Speaker 1: History favors the patient buyer at these fear levels, but
Speaker 1: history favors is not a stop loss. Second, Bitcoin dominance
Speaker 1: around fifty eight percent and climbing if it pushes past
Speaker 1: sixty percent. The all coin recovery thesis is on hold
Speaker 1: full stop. Token launch pops like Mega f are exciting,
Speaker 1: but they're not the same as genuine ecosystem inflows. Third,
Speaker 1: and this one's the sleeper risk. Stable coin supply barely
Speaker 1: moved this week. That's thin ammunition for a market trying
Speaker 1: to break higher. And with the wlifi token unlock closing
Speaker 1: May sixth, unlocked pressure hitting a thin stable coin environment
Speaker 1: is exactly how you get disorderly selling. Watch that combination
Speaker 1: and looking ahead. Here's what's on my radar for the
Speaker 1: next few days. Three dates that matter this week. May sixth,
Speaker 1: the World Liberty Financial Token unlocked vote closes. If the
Speaker 1: token drops more than twenty percent within a week of that,
Speaker 1: insiders are selling immediately. May seventh, the Arbitrum Dow is
Speaker 1: voting to release frozen Etherium, currently passing with essentially full approval.
Speaker 1: Watch how that ethereum gets deployed or sold after its released.
Speaker 1: Also May seventh, the FED FOMC meeting and rate decision.
Speaker 1: Bitcoins around seventy eight thousand dollars. Macro is still tight.
Speaker 1: A hawkish signal could kill the April momentum in a hurry,
Speaker 1: but a hold with Dubvish language that might finally be
Speaker 1: what pushes bitcoin through eighty thousand dollars resistance. That's the
Speaker 1: one I'm watching most closely. That's the May first Daily Pulse.
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Speaker 1: not investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex.
Speaker 1: See you next time.