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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily polls for

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<v Speaker 1>May one, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin just closed its best

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<v Speaker 1>month in a year, and somehow the market is still scared.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it, but first a quick word from

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<v Speaker 1>our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. Bitcoin closed April

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<v Speaker 1>up twelve percent, best monthly gain in a year. Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>ETF's pulled in two billion dollars across the month, the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest ETF month of twenty twenty six so far, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Fear and Greed Index sitting at twenty six. That's

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<v Speaker 1>deep fear territory. Here's the split screen that's been defining

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty six. Institutional money is buying what retail is

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<v Speaker 1>scared to touch. Two billion dollars flowing into bitcoin ETFs,

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<v Speaker 1>while the average crypto investor is checking their portfolio and

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<v Speaker 1>closing the tab. And there's one more data point that

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<v Speaker 1>caught my eye. Strategy you know them as micro strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>just posted its first positive month since July. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>most leverage bitcoin proxy on Wall Street. When that finally

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<v Speaker 1>stops bleeding, something is shifting underneath the surface. So where

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<v Speaker 1>does that leave the rest of the market. Well, it's complicated.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin sitting around seventy eight thousand dollars right now, up

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<v Speaker 1>a couple percent on the day, but still range bound

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<v Speaker 1>below that eighty thousand dollars wall that's been capping every

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<v Speaker 1>rally attempt. Ethereum and Solana are following along, but neither

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<v Speaker 1>has any real conviction behind the move. DeFi total value

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<v Speaker 1>locked is around eighty four billion dollars. Stable Coin supply

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<v Speaker 1>is basically flat, just over three hundred and eighteen billion,

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<v Speaker 1>and barely moved this week. That last number matters more

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<v Speaker 1>than it sounds. Flat stable coin supply means there isn't

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of fresh cash sitting on the sidelines ready

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<v Speaker 1>to deploy. That's not the setup you want heading into

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<v Speaker 1>a potential breakout. Also worth flagging, Bitcoin dominance jumped over

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<v Speaker 1>a percentage point today and is sitting somewhere around fifty

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent. When when it rises alongside of fear reading

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<v Speaker 1>like twenty six points, it usually means capital is consolidating

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<v Speaker 1>into Bitcoin, specifically, not spreading out into alts. The alt

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<v Speaker 1>coin recovery story is on pause, all right, So what's

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<v Speaker 1>actually driving all this? Let's get into the stories. First. Up,

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<v Speaker 1>Mega F the new Ethereum Layer two chain launched its

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<v Speaker 1>token this week, and total value locked surged nearly three

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<v Speaker 1>hundred percent in seven days. That is the biggest Layer

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<v Speaker 1>two debut of twenty twenty six. Mega F is the

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<v Speaker 1>real time EVM chain that's been claiming sub millisecond block times. Basically,

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<v Speaker 1>it processes transactions faster than almost anything else out there.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's what's actually interesting. While Mega F was eating

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<v Speaker 1>everyone's lunch, Manta Pacific loss about sixteen percent of its

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<v Speaker 1>total value locked. This week, Sonium dropped around fourteen percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Plume network shed roughly twelve percent. Capital doesn't spread evenly

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<v Speaker 1>across layer twos. It concentrates around the new thing. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Layer two Darwinism playing out in real time. The

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<v Speaker 1>question to watch does Mega s total value locked hold

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<v Speaker 1>above launch levels through next week. If it does without

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<v Speaker 1>relying on token incentives to keep people in, those are

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<v Speaker 1>real users. If total value locked craters within seven days,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a farm and dump and the narrative dies

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<v Speaker 1>with it. Next. SBI Holdings, Japan's largest financial conglomerate, is

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<v Speaker 1>in talks to acquire a stake in Japanese crypto exchange

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<v Speaker 1>bit Bank, aiming for subsidiary status, not a partnership ownership.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the same playbook traditional finance has been running

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<v Speaker 1>in the US for two years. Absorb crypto infrastructure rather

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<v Speaker 1>than compete with it. SBI already has positions in crypto

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<v Speaker 1>custody lending and XRP payments. Adding a domestic exchange locks

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<v Speaker 1>in the full stack. The window for independent crypto exchanges

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<v Speaker 1>in Asia to stay independent is closing now. This one

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<v Speaker 1>world Liberty Financial, the DeFi project with political ties, has

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<v Speaker 1>a governance vote passing right now with almost unanimous approval.

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<v Speaker 1>The vote covers token unlocks for early supporters, founders, and partners.

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<v Speaker 1>Closes May sixth. When a governance vote passes with basically

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<v Speaker 1>no opposition, that's not community consensus, that's insiders voting to

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<v Speaker 1>pay themselves. The token already fell after the vote was announced.

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<v Speaker 1>Critics are calling it a scam, and the real risk

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<v Speaker 1>isn't the vote itself, it's what happens when those unlocked

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<v Speaker 1>tokens actually hit the open market. Early supporters and founders

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<v Speaker 1>don't typically hold. They sell a couple of quick hits

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<v Speaker 1>before we move on with SABI protocol got hacked this week.

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<v Speaker 1>The team acknowledged it and a post mortem is coming.

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<v Speaker 1>This adds to a grim twenty twenty six taally over

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<v Speaker 1>a billion dollars stolen across nearly seventy separate incidents this year.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not a one off. That's a systemic security p

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<v Speaker 1>problem across the space and Bit Them, one of South

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<v Speaker 1>Korea's biggest exchanges just got a legal reprieve. A sole

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<v Speaker 1>court issued an injunction halting the six month operating suspension

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<v Speaker 1>that regulators had imposed. Bit Them stays open while the

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<v Speaker 1>appeal works through the courts. Good news for Korean traders

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<v Speaker 1>and a reminder that regulatory battles in Asia are far

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<v Speaker 1>from over all. Right, before we get into the risks,

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<v Speaker 1>quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what to watch for. Three things I'm watching closely

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<v Speaker 1>right now. First, that fear and greed reading of twenty

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<v Speaker 1>six against two billion dollars in ETF inflows. This divergence

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<v Speaker 1>has to resolve either retail capitulates and sells into institutional hands,

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<v Speaker 1>which is actually how a lot of bottoms form or

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<v Speaker 1>institutions are early and the next leg down proves them wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>History favors the patient buyer at these fear levels, but

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<v Speaker 1>history favors is not a stop loss. Second, Bitcoin dominance

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<v Speaker 1>around fifty eight percent and climbing if it pushes past

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<v Speaker 1>sixty percent. The all coin recovery thesis is on hold

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<v Speaker 1>full stop. Token launch pops like Mega f are exciting,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're not the same as genuine ecosystem inflows. Third,

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<v Speaker 1>and this one's the sleeper risk. Stable coin supply barely

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<v Speaker 1>moved this week. That's thin ammunition for a market trying

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<v Speaker 1>to break higher. And with the wlifi token unlock closing

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<v Speaker 1>May sixth, unlocked pressure hitting a thin stable coin environment

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<v Speaker 1>is exactly how you get disorderly selling. Watch that combination

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<v Speaker 1>and looking ahead. Here's what's on my radar for the

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<v Speaker 1>next few days. Three dates that matter this week. May sixth,

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<v Speaker 1>the World Liberty Financial Token unlocked vote closes. If the

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<v Speaker 1>token drops more than twenty percent within a week of that,

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<v Speaker 1>insiders are selling immediately. May seventh, the Arbitrum Dow is

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<v Speaker 1>voting to release frozen Etherium, currently passing with essentially full approval.

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<v Speaker 1>Watch how that ethereum gets deployed or sold after its released.

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<v Speaker 1>Also May seventh, the FED FOMC meeting and rate decision.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoins around seventy eight thousand dollars. Macro is still tight.

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<v Speaker 1>A hawkish signal could kill the April momentum in a hurry,

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<v Speaker 1>but a hold with Dubvish language that might finally be

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<v Speaker 1>what pushes bitcoin through eighty thousand dollars resistance. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>one I'm watching most closely. That's the May first Daily Pulse.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're not subscribed to the podcast yet, hit that

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<v Speaker 1>subscribe button. It takes two seconds. This is educational content,

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<v Speaker 1>not investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex.

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<v Speaker 1>See you next time.