WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.439 --> 00:00:07.719 Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos 2 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:12.279 with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a 3 00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:16.320 gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for 4 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:20.239 unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries 5 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:22.440 of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful 6 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:23.839 slumber under the night sky. 7 00:00:26.920 --> 00:00:30.800 I want you to just transport yourself to a very 8 00:00:30.839 --> 00:00:34.280 specific moment in the nots of distant future. Okay, picture 9 00:00:34.280 --> 00:00:39.479 yourself on a Friday night, specifically Friday, April thirteenth, twenty. 10 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:42.119 Twenty nine, the classic Friday the thirteenth, right exactly. 11 00:00:42.159 --> 00:00:44.600 So you step out your back door. Maybe there's like 12 00:00:44.679 --> 00:00:46.840 a slight chill in the air, you have a jacket on, 13 00:00:47.039 --> 00:00:49.679 maybe a cup of coffee in your hands. That's nice, Yeah, 14 00:00:49.719 --> 00:00:53.679 And you look up at the night sky and there, 15 00:00:53.719 --> 00:00:58.399 just moving visibly steadily across the darkness is a massive object. 16 00:00:58.520 --> 00:01:00.679 And we're not talking about a little streak of light either. 17 00:01:00.840 --> 00:01:03.399 No, you don't need a telescope, you don't need binoculars. 18 00:01:03.560 --> 00:01:06.400 You just need your own two eyes to witness essentially 19 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:09.599 a mountain hurtling past our planet. We are talking about 20 00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:10.640 the asteroid of p Office. 21 00:01:10.840 --> 00:01:11.079 It is. 22 00:01:11.879 --> 00:01:14.920 It's a really profound image to consider, especially when we 23 00:01:15.159 --> 00:01:17.599 you know, scale it properly in our heads, because in 24 00:01:17.640 --> 00:01:20.159 that scenario, you are looking at a rock that is 25 00:01:20.280 --> 00:01:22.239 roughly three hundred and seventy five. 26 00:01:22.120 --> 00:01:23.680 Meters across, which is huge. 27 00:01:23.719 --> 00:01:25.920 It's massive. That is not a shooting star burning up 28 00:01:25.920 --> 00:01:28.200 in the upper atmosphere. That is an object with the 29 00:01:28.239 --> 00:01:32.079 mass of a modern aircraft carrier or like the height 30 00:01:32.159 --> 00:01:35.079 of the Empire State Building, just coasting through the void 31 00:01:35.519 --> 00:01:37.120 right in our orbital backyard. 32 00:01:37.319 --> 00:01:38.760 It's just wild to think about. 33 00:01:38.920 --> 00:01:42.000 Yeah, and to see something of that immense scale moving 34 00:01:42.040 --> 00:01:45.319 in real time against the backdrop of the fixed stars. 35 00:01:45.400 --> 00:01:49.560 I mean, it'll be a visceral reminder of the dynamics 36 00:01:49.560 --> 00:01:52.439 sometimes really violent solar system we inhabit totally. 37 00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:57.200 And let's establish the most critical fact immediately, because the 38 00:01:57.319 --> 00:02:02.000 date Friday the thirteenth, combined with the giant asteroid sounds 39 00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:04.519 entirely like the setup for a disaster movie. 40 00:02:04.599 --> 00:02:06.480 Oh yeah, the media field day is going to be. 41 00:02:06.480 --> 00:02:10.560 Intense, for sure, but there is absolutely zero risk of 42 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:13.360 impact in twenty twenty nine zero. We know it's trajectory. 43 00:02:13.439 --> 00:02:15.680 It is not hitting Earth, right, so it's going to 44 00:02:15.759 --> 00:02:18.240 skim past us in a way that is so incredibly rare. 45 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:21.680 It is like mobilizing the entire global scientific community. 46 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:24.919 It's a once in a lifetime, actually many lifetimes opportunities exactly. 47 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:28.039 So we are looking at this monumental international effort to 48 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:29.560 literally chase this asteroid down. 49 00:02:29.599 --> 00:02:30.520 We're going after it. 50 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:33.879 We are, and today we're going to examine the rams's mission, 51 00:02:34.120 --> 00:02:37.960 the unprecedented alliance between Europe and Japan making it possible. 52 00:02:38.479 --> 00:02:41.680 And you know what this incredibly close shave means for 53 00:02:41.719 --> 00:02:44.879 the actual applied science of planetary. 54 00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:48.599 Defense, because this event, it really alters our entire approach 55 00:02:48.719 --> 00:02:49.759 to near Earth. 56 00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:51.240 Object It changes everything, right. 57 00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:54.400 It really does. This shift in perspective here is foundational 58 00:02:54.719 --> 00:02:57.719 because for the entirety of human history, our relationship with 59 00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:01.599 asteroids has been remote, like, right, we find them as 60 00:03:01.680 --> 00:03:05.039 faint pixels on a telescope sensor, or you know, we 61 00:03:05.080 --> 00:03:08.680 spend a decade planning to launch a highly specialized probe 62 00:03:09.000 --> 00:03:11.759 deep into the quiet isolation of the Solar System just 63 00:03:11.800 --> 00:03:12.199 to get a. 64 00:03:12.120 --> 00:03:14.199 Brief look at one, just a quick flyby. 65 00:03:14.039 --> 00:03:17.800 Exactly, but a pofice. In twenty twenty nine, inverses that 66 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:20.080 entirely the cosmos is coming to us. 67 00:03:20.159 --> 00:03:21.800 It's delivering it right to our front. 68 00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:25.039 Door, delivering a pristine relic of the early Solar system 69 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:28.960 right to our doorstep. And the logistical, the engineering, and 70 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:32.599 the scientific ambition required to meet it and to launch 71 00:03:32.599 --> 00:03:36.439 a companion spacecraft to observe it up close during this flyby. 72 00:03:36.599 --> 00:03:40.479 It just demonstrates an incredible maturation of our capabilities as 73 00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:41.680 a spacefaring species. 74 00:03:41.759 --> 00:03:44.280 It really does. So let's break down the mechanics of 75 00:03:44.319 --> 00:03:47.240 this cosmic close shave, because the numbers here are just staggering. 76 00:03:47.319 --> 00:03:47.680 They are. 77 00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:50.400 We established the three hundred and seventy five meters scale. 78 00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:55.120 But the proximity is what makes this historic. A pofice 79 00:03:55.199 --> 00:03:58.759 will pass just thirty two thousand kilometers above Earth's surface, 80 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:02.520 which is incredibly close right now. Thirty two thousand kilometers 81 00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:04.800 might sound like a vast distance if you're driving a car, 82 00:04:05.560 --> 00:04:08.439 but in astronomical terms, it is a hair's breadth. It's 83 00:04:08.479 --> 00:04:10.759 nothing that is less than one tenth of the distance 84 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:13.719 to the Moon. Yeah, and what really puts us into 85 00:04:13.759 --> 00:04:16.079 perspective for me is that it is closer than our 86 00:04:16.120 --> 00:04:18.120 own satellites in geosynchronous orbit. 87 00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:21.480 That altitude is a highly specific and sensitive zone. 88 00:04:21.560 --> 00:04:23.639 So explain that because that sounds terrifying. 89 00:04:23.879 --> 00:04:27.279 Well, geosynchronous orbit is about thirty five thousand, seven hundred 90 00:04:27.319 --> 00:04:31.959 and eighty six kilometers above the equator. We put telecommunication satellites, 91 00:04:32.000 --> 00:04:36.839 weather monitors, early warning defense systems there because at that 92 00:04:36.920 --> 00:04:42.240 specific altitude, a satellite's orbital period perfectly matches Earth's rotation. 93 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:44.480 It essentially just hovers over one spot on the. 94 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:47.480 Globe exactly, and apofice is coming in at thirty two 95 00:04:47.560 --> 00:04:52.319 thousand kilometers. It is slicing completely inside that multi billion 96 00:04:52.360 --> 00:04:54.839 dollar ring of infrastructure. 97 00:04:54.199 --> 00:04:57.439 Which immediately raises a red flag for anyone visualizing this. Sure, 98 00:04:57.480 --> 00:04:59.959 of course, if you have this ring of vital satellites 99 00:05:00.360 --> 00:05:03.399 and that three hundred and seventy five meter rock plows 100 00:05:03.439 --> 00:05:06.160 through the middle of it at incredible velocity, I mean, 101 00:05:06.160 --> 00:05:08.480 the instinct is to worry about our orbital infrastructure. 102 00:05:08.519 --> 00:05:09.759 Are we going to lose our GPS? 103 00:05:09.920 --> 00:05:12.279 Right? Yeah? Like, are we talking about a cosmic bowl 104 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:14.399 in a China shop? Or are we going to lose 105 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:17.720 global communications? Is this going to trigger a cascading debris 106 00:05:17.759 --> 00:05:18.439 event up there? 107 00:05:18.560 --> 00:05:21.040 It's a completely logical concern, but it stems from a 108 00:05:21.040 --> 00:05:24.480 misunderstanding of the volume of space. Okay, how so we 109 00:05:24.560 --> 00:05:28.199 often visualize orbital rings like like lanes on a highway, 110 00:05:28.439 --> 00:05:30.439 packed bumper to bumper with metal. 111 00:05:30.399 --> 00:05:31.839 Like the rings of Saturn or something. 112 00:05:32.000 --> 00:05:35.240 Right, But the reality is that space, even near Earth space, 113 00:05:35.399 --> 00:05:39.800 is profoundly empty. Okay, Yes, Apophe is crossing the orbital plane, 114 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:44.199 but the distance between individual satellites and the geosynchronous belt 115 00:05:44.240 --> 00:05:47.639 is typically one hundreds, if not thousands, of kilometers, So it's. 116 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:49.720 Not like threading a needle through a crowded row. 117 00:05:49.680 --> 00:05:53.720 Not at all. Furthermore, orbital dynamics isn't a game of chance. 118 00:05:54.319 --> 00:05:58.680 Astrometric radar tracking has mapped apophesis trajectory down to the kilometer. 119 00:05:58.839 --> 00:06:00.600 They know exactly where it's going exactly. 120 00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:04.319 We know its orbital inclination, its exact velocity, and the 121 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:08.600 specific keyhole of space it will occupy. At every single 122 00:06:08.720 --> 00:06:11.439 second of the flyby. It will pass safely through the 123 00:06:11.519 --> 00:06:14.000 vacuum without coming anywhere near a satellite. 124 00:06:14.160 --> 00:06:16.879 So the danger to our infrastructure is essentially zero, even 125 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:19.240 though it feels uncomfortably close. 126 00:06:19.439 --> 00:06:20.480 Right, zero danger. 127 00:06:20.519 --> 00:06:22.480 But I want to talk about how rare an approach 128 00:06:22.560 --> 00:06:26.279 like this actually is because asteroids fly by Earth all 129 00:06:26.319 --> 00:06:26.720 the time. 130 00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:27.240 They do. 131 00:06:27.279 --> 00:06:29.759 We read the headlines every month about some rock passing us. 132 00:06:29.879 --> 00:06:32.319 Yeah, why is a pof is different? The difference is 133 00:06:32.360 --> 00:06:36.519 the intersection of extreme proximity and massive scale. Okay, we 134 00:06:36.560 --> 00:06:40.279 have small rocks objects maybe a few meters across pass 135 00:06:40.360 --> 00:06:43.279 us frequently. Often they burn up in the atmosphere as 136 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:44.040 bullides or. 137 00:06:44.040 --> 00:06:45.680 Fireballs, right, shooting stars. 138 00:06:46.120 --> 00:06:48.480 But an object three hundred and seventy five meters in 139 00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:54.319 diameter coming within thirty two thousand kilometers statistically, an event 140 00:06:54.399 --> 00:06:57.720 of this magnitude occurs only once every five thousand to 141 00:06:57.800 --> 00:06:58.720 ten thousand years. 142 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:01.279 Wait, let's pause on that one. In ten thousand years, 143 00:07:01.920 --> 00:07:05.240 if we rewind the clock ten thousand years to the 144 00:07:05.319 --> 00:07:08.560 last time an object this massive got this close, what 145 00:07:08.600 --> 00:07:09.560 were we even doing? 146 00:07:09.800 --> 00:07:12.399 We were a completely different species in terms of our 147 00:07:12.439 --> 00:07:13.439 societal development. 148 00:07:13.480 --> 00:07:15.120 I mean, that's practically the Stone Age right. 149 00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:18.000 Literally ten thousand years ago marks a transition from the 150 00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.560 Pleistocene to the Holocene epoch. The great glaciers of the 151 00:07:21.639 --> 00:07:24.240 last Ice Age were just retreating. Wow, we are talking 152 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:27.680 about the dawn of the Neolithic Revolution. Human beings were 153 00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:30.519 just beginning to experiment with agriculture in the Fertile. 154 00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:32.279 Crescent, so farming was barely a thing. 155 00:07:32.560 --> 00:07:36.680 Barely. There are no cities, no written languages, no metal working. 156 00:07:37.319 --> 00:07:40.079 If an asteroid of this size passed that close to 157 00:07:40.120 --> 00:07:43.120 Earth back then, our ancestors might have looked up from 158 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:47.279 newly planted fields, seen a bright point of light moving 159 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:52.040 unnaturally fast against the stars, and had absolutely no astronomical 160 00:07:52.040 --> 00:07:53.600 framework to comprehend what it was. 161 00:07:53.759 --> 00:07:56.000 It would have just been pure myth and mystery, like 162 00:07:56.040 --> 00:07:57.720 a god walking across the sky. 163 00:07:57.959 --> 00:08:01.560 Completely And fast forward to April twenty twenty nine, and 164 00:08:01.600 --> 00:08:03.879 the contrast is just mind. 165 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:05.839 Bending, because not only do we know exactly what it is, 166 00:08:05.959 --> 00:08:09.040 but up to two billion people across Europe, Africa, and 167 00:08:09.120 --> 00:08:11.639 parts of Asia will be able to walk outside and 168 00:08:11.720 --> 00:08:13.120 track it with their naked eyes. 169 00:08:13.279 --> 00:08:16.639 The viewing geometry is exceptionally favorable for this pass. 170 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:17.920 How does that work? 171 00:08:18.040 --> 00:08:20.199 Because of the trajectory and the time of day it 172 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:23.839 makes its closest approach, a massive swath of the populated 173 00:08:23.839 --> 00:08:27.680 globe will be in darkness, which provides perfect viewing conditions. 174 00:08:28.000 --> 00:08:30.839 Think about the sociological impact of that for a moment. 175 00:08:30.920 --> 00:08:33.080 It's going to be huge, right If you are listening 176 00:08:33.080 --> 00:08:36.120 to this right now in twenty twenty nine, you are 177 00:08:36.159 --> 00:08:39.080 going to participate in a shared planetary event. 178 00:08:38.960 --> 00:08:40.080 A collective experience. 179 00:08:40.279 --> 00:08:43.440 Yeah, a quarter of the human population looking up at 180 00:08:43.480 --> 00:08:45.559 the exact same time, watching the same rock. 181 00:08:45.720 --> 00:08:46.200 It's rare. 182 00:08:46.799 --> 00:08:50.120 In an era where we are incredibly segmented by screens 183 00:08:50.159 --> 00:08:54.399 and time zones and borders, having a singular, unifying cosmic 184 00:08:54.440 --> 00:08:58.519 event visible to the naked eye is just it's powerful. 185 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:01.080 It reminds us that we are all riding the same 186 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:03.840 rock through a very busy solar system. 187 00:09:04.039 --> 00:09:07.679 The cultural impact will be significant, absolutely, But for the 188 00:09:07.679 --> 00:09:11.879 international scientific community, the philosophical beauty of the moment kind 189 00:09:11.960 --> 00:09:14.000 of takes a back seat to the physics. 190 00:09:14.080 --> 00:09:16.320 Oh, I'm sure they're probably drooling over the data. 191 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:18.519 Oh they are. This isn't just a celestial lite show. 192 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:21.799 Because Apophus is getting so deep into Earth's gravity. Well, 193 00:09:22.159 --> 00:09:25.519 it is going to be subjected to immense physical forces, right, 194 00:09:25.840 --> 00:09:28.960 and that is what makes this the opportunity of a millennium. 195 00:09:29.000 --> 00:09:31.519 So let's dive into the physics of that flyby, because 196 00:09:31.559 --> 00:09:34.399 this is where the science gets deeply strange and fascinating. 197 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:34.639 To me. 198 00:09:34.679 --> 00:09:35.320 It really does. 199 00:09:35.480 --> 00:09:37.679 When you say it's getting deep into the gravity. Well, 200 00:09:37.799 --> 00:09:40.960 we're talking about tidal forces, right. Earth's gravity isn't just 201 00:09:41.000 --> 00:09:43.600 pulling the asteroid off its path. It's going to physically 202 00:09:43.639 --> 00:09:45.919 warp the asteroid itself exactly. 203 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:48.879 To understand how Earth is going to reshape a pofae, 204 00:09:49.120 --> 00:09:51.679 we have to look really closely at what tidal stress 205 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:52.519 actually is. 206 00:09:52.720 --> 00:09:53.919 Okay, break it down for us. 207 00:09:54.360 --> 00:09:57.679 Gravity is not a uniform feel. Its strength decreases with 208 00:09:57.720 --> 00:09:59.159 the square of the distance. 209 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:01.120 Meaning the farther way you are, the weaker. 210 00:10:01.159 --> 00:10:04.120 The pole right so apof is is three hundred and 211 00:10:04.120 --> 00:10:07.759 seventy five meters across when it is thirty two thousand 212 00:10:07.799 --> 00:10:10.759 kilometers away from us. The side of the asteroid facing 213 00:10:10.759 --> 00:10:14.000 Earth is technically a few hundred meters closer to the 214 00:10:14.000 --> 00:10:16.279 center of Earth's mass than the far side of the 215 00:10:16.320 --> 00:10:17.000 asteroid is. 216 00:10:16.960 --> 00:10:19.200 Oh I see, which means the gravity pulling on the 217 00:10:19.200 --> 00:10:22.240 bottom of the asteroid the side facing us is measurably 218 00:10:22.279 --> 00:10:23.639 stronger than the gravity pulling on. 219 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:26.879 The top exactly, and that gravitational differential. 220 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:28.279 Creates tension like it's being pulled apart. 221 00:10:28.480 --> 00:10:31.360 Yes, it's the exact same mechanism that allows the Moon 222 00:10:31.440 --> 00:10:34.519 to pull Earth's oceans into high and low tides, just 223 00:10:34.600 --> 00:10:37.159 on a much more acute scale. Given the proximity and 224 00:10:37.200 --> 00:10:40.159 the solid nature of the bodies involved, Earth is effectively 225 00:10:40.159 --> 00:10:41.960 going to stretch a poffice like. 226 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:45.399 An invisible pair of hands kneading a giant rocky ball 227 00:10:45.440 --> 00:10:48.919 of dough, or a massive magnet pulling apart a cluster 228 00:10:48.960 --> 00:10:52.320 of iron filings. We aren't just watching it fly by. 229 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:55.639 We are watching Earth give a deep tissue massage. 230 00:10:56.039 --> 00:10:59.519 I like that analogy. Nature is essentially conducting the experiment 231 00:10:59.559 --> 00:10:59.960 for us. 232 00:11:00.759 --> 00:11:05.120 But wait, Earth's oceans are liquid, They flow easily, so 233 00:11:05.240 --> 00:11:08.799 tides make sense. A poffice is a rock. How does 234 00:11:08.799 --> 00:11:11.840 a mountain of rock stretch without just shattering or does 235 00:11:11.879 --> 00:11:12.320 it shatter? 236 00:11:12.519 --> 00:11:15.279 Well, that depends entirely on its internal structure, which is 237 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:17.360 actually one of the primary mysteries we are trying to 238 00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:17.759 solve here. 239 00:11:17.799 --> 00:11:19.320 Really we don't know what's inside it. 240 00:11:19.720 --> 00:11:22.120 Not exactly. In the early days of asteroid signs, we 241 00:11:22.159 --> 00:11:26.759 assumed these bodies were solid, monolithic chunks of iron or silicate. 242 00:11:26.399 --> 00:11:28.679 Like a giant boulder, right, And if. 243 00:11:28.600 --> 00:11:31.200 A Poffas were a solid monolith, the tidal forces would 244 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:34.240 cause it to groan, perhaps inducing seismic quakes that would 245 00:11:34.320 --> 00:11:37.840 ripple through the solid rock asteroid quakes exactly. But our 246 00:11:37.840 --> 00:11:40.840 recent missions to other asteroids like Benu and Riugu have 247 00:11:40.919 --> 00:11:43.320 shown us that many of these objects are not solid 248 00:11:43.360 --> 00:11:45.559 at all. They are what we call rubble piles. 249 00:11:45.960 --> 00:11:49.679 Rubble piles so basically a collection of gravel, boulders, and 250 00:11:49.799 --> 00:11:54.360 dust held together by their own incredibly weak mutual gravity. 251 00:11:54.519 --> 00:11:57.799 Yes, millions of distinct fragments just clinging to one another 252 00:11:57.840 --> 00:11:58.360 in the dark. 253 00:11:58.519 --> 00:11:59.799 That's so creepy to think about. 254 00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:00.360 It is. 255 00:12:00.559 --> 00:12:03.720 The gravity on these rubble piles is so microscale that 256 00:12:03.879 --> 00:12:07.679 forces we ignore on Earth, like Vanderval's forces, actually play 257 00:12:07.720 --> 00:12:08.399 a major role. 258 00:12:08.519 --> 00:12:10.919 Wait, Vanderval's forces, Remind me what that is. 259 00:12:11.080 --> 00:12:15.279 It's the slight electrostatic attraction between molecules, or, in this case, 260 00:12:15.399 --> 00:12:18.799 between grains of dust. It's what allows geckos to climb walls. 261 00:12:19.039 --> 00:12:21.679 Oh right, So dust is basically just statically clinging to 262 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:23.039 other dust exactly. 263 00:12:23.320 --> 00:12:26.679 That plays a huge role in holding the entire asteroid together. 264 00:12:27.399 --> 00:12:30.159 So when a loosely bound rubble pile like that enters 265 00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:33.840 Earth's gravitational grip at thirty two thousand kilometers, the tidal 266 00:12:33.840 --> 00:12:37.600 stress can easily overcome those extremely weak cohesive forces. 267 00:12:37.679 --> 00:12:40.600 So if you're looking at this with a high powered telescope, 268 00:12:41.159 --> 00:12:43.639 what are you actually seeing happen to the surface. Is 269 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:44.559 it pulling apart? 270 00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:47.840 We expect to see the surface undergo radical alteration as 271 00:12:47.879 --> 00:12:51.200 the tidal forces stretch the body. Boulders might become dislodged, 272 00:12:51.399 --> 00:12:55.799 just floating off or rolling. We could see localized avalanches 273 00:12:55.840 --> 00:12:59.480 where gravel and dust slide down the microgravity slopes of 274 00:12:59.519 --> 00:13:03.960 the astral exposing fresh, unweathered material from beneath the surface. 275 00:13:04.159 --> 00:13:04.720 Oh wow. 276 00:13:04.759 --> 00:13:09.279 Furthermore, the gravitational interaction will likely torque the asteroid, changing 277 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:10.039 its spin rate. 278 00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:12.720 It'll make it spin faster or. 279 00:13:12.559 --> 00:13:17.080 Slower, or change its axis. It currently tumbles through space 280 00:13:17.159 --> 00:13:21.240 in a complex non principal axis rotation, kind of like 281 00:13:21.279 --> 00:13:25.279 a wobbly football. Okay, Earth's gravity could alter that spin, 282 00:13:25.679 --> 00:13:29.000 which in turn creates centrifugal forces that might cause the 283 00:13:29.000 --> 00:13:32.480 asteroid to bulge at its equator. We are quite literally 284 00:13:32.600 --> 00:13:35.759 letting Earth's gravity conduct a deep tissue physical exam of 285 00:13:35.759 --> 00:13:36.840 this object. 286 00:13:36.480 --> 00:13:38.919 Which is such a brilliant reversal of how we normally 287 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:40.200 do space exploration. 288 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:40.919 It really is. 289 00:13:41.120 --> 00:13:43.080 Usually, if we want to know what's inside an asteroid, 290 00:13:43.120 --> 00:13:46.360 we have to spend a decade building a probe, launching it, 291 00:13:46.480 --> 00:13:49.559 flying it for millions of miles, and shooting a projectile 292 00:13:49.600 --> 00:13:50.120 into the rock. 293 00:13:50.399 --> 00:13:52.480 And that's if everything goes perfectly right. 294 00:13:52.879 --> 00:13:55.320 But here the Solar System is delivering the asteroid to 295 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:59.039 our laboratory, and Earth itself is the testing apparatus perfectly. 296 00:13:59.320 --> 00:14:02.519 But push back on the necessity of this for a second. Okay, sure, 297 00:14:02.919 --> 00:14:07.480 it's undeniably cool physics, right watching a rock get stretched. 298 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:10.399 But if we already know apophes isn't going to hit us, 299 00:14:11.159 --> 00:14:14.120 why is it so critical that we measure every single 300 00:14:14.159 --> 00:14:17.360 pebble shifting on its surface? Why are we treating this 301 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:19.639 like an urgent planetary defense mission? 302 00:14:19.879 --> 00:14:24.240 Because planetary defense relies entirely on understanding how asteroids react 303 00:14:24.240 --> 00:14:28.480 to kinetic stress, and right now our data is severely limited. 304 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:30.080 We just don't know enough exactly. 305 00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:33.159 Imagine a scenario twenty years from now where we discover 306 00:14:33.320 --> 00:14:36.360 a four hundred meter asteroid that is on a confirmed 307 00:14:36.399 --> 00:14:37.600 collision course with Earth. 308 00:14:37.720 --> 00:14:39.000 Okay, terrifying, but go on. 309 00:14:39.240 --> 00:14:42.919 Our primary defense strategy is kinetic impact, which means flying 310 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:45.919 a heavy spacecraft into the asteroid at high velocity to 311 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:49.879 slightly alter its momentum, pushing it off its collision course. 312 00:14:49.960 --> 00:14:52.279 Ah, the billiard ball method to smack it out of 313 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:52.559 the way. 314 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:56.120 In theory, yes, but the reality is vastly more complex. 315 00:14:56.519 --> 00:14:59.279 If you hit a solid, monolithic block of iron, the 316 00:14:59.320 --> 00:15:03.879 momentum tre ansfer is highly efficient. The rock moves predictably. 317 00:15:03.440 --> 00:15:05.399 Just like hitting a Cuball right, But. 318 00:15:05.399 --> 00:15:08.799 What if that asteroid is a rubble pile with high macroporosity. 319 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:11.480 What if it's mostly empty space inside? Oh? 320 00:15:11.559 --> 00:15:13.919 I see, Then hitting it with a spacecraft would be 321 00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:17.960 like firing a bullet into a sandbag. The sandbag just 322 00:15:18.039 --> 00:15:19.679 absorbs the energy. It doesn't move. 323 00:15:19.799 --> 00:15:23.000 That's a great analogy. It absorbs the kinetic energy. Or 324 00:15:23.200 --> 00:15:27.080 even worse, the impact shatters the weak cohesive forces holding 325 00:15:27.080 --> 00:15:30.320 the rubble pile together. Oh no, yeah. Instead of one 326 00:15:30.399 --> 00:15:33.440 large asteroid on a collision course, you have just created 327 00:15:33.480 --> 00:15:38.159 a shotgun blast of one hundred smaller, deeply destructive fragments, 328 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:42.399 like a cluster bomb, exactly, all still heading toward Earth's atmosphere, 329 00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:45.120 but now completely impossible to deflect. 330 00:15:44.879 --> 00:15:47.240 Because you can't hit one hundred different rocks at once. 331 00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:47.919 You can't. 332 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:51.279 So we desperately need to know the structural integrity of 333 00:15:51.320 --> 00:15:53.320 these things before we ever try to hit one. 334 00:15:53.399 --> 00:15:55.759 We have to know the anatomy of the threat. We 335 00:15:55.840 --> 00:15:58.600 need to know the yield strength, the porosity, and how 336 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:01.919 the internal friction of the bulk absorbs kinetic energy. 337 00:16:01.960 --> 00:16:04.240 And Apofice is giving us that data for free. 338 00:16:04.399 --> 00:16:08.000 Well not for free, but it's presenting the opportunity. By 339 00:16:08.080 --> 00:16:11.240 watching how Apophus behaves when subjected to the maximum title 340 00:16:11.279 --> 00:16:15.320 stress of Earth's gravity, we gain invaluable empirical data on 341 00:16:15.360 --> 00:16:17.960 how a three hundred and seventy five meter rock holds 342 00:16:17.960 --> 00:16:21.399 itself together. It acts as a proxy for any future thread. 343 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:24.120 But the catch is we can't get that data just 344 00:16:24.120 --> 00:16:25.759 by looking at it from our backyards. 345 00:16:25.799 --> 00:16:27.559 No binoculars won't cut it right. 346 00:16:27.840 --> 00:16:31.080 Even our best ground based observatories can't resolve the granular 347 00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:33.919 shifting of dust on an object moving that fast thirty 348 00:16:33.960 --> 00:16:35.320 two thousand kilometers away. 349 00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:38.559 It's moving too quickly and the details are too fine. 350 00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:41.120 To actually measure the reshaping of the asteroid. To see 351 00:16:41.159 --> 00:16:44.039 the before and after of this gravitational stress test, we 352 00:16:44.159 --> 00:16:46.559 need an observatory right next to it, which brings us 353 00:16:46.600 --> 00:16:48.960 to the logistics of actually intercepting this thing. 354 00:16:49.080 --> 00:16:52.159 And this is where the engineering reality meets the scientific ambition. 355 00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:54.919 Yes, let's talk about the rams's mission right. 356 00:16:55.080 --> 00:16:58.559 To maximize this opportunity, we need a spacecraft to rendezvous 357 00:16:58.600 --> 00:17:01.639 with APOFUS before the APE twenty twenty nine close approach, 358 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:05.039 fly alongside it during the flyby, and remain with it 359 00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:09.119 afterward to measure the permanent alterations. Enter the Ramsey's mission. 360 00:17:09.039 --> 00:17:12.960 The Rapid Apopus Mission for Space Safety RAMSES. It's a 361 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:16.119 great acronym, it really is. But the timeline here is 362 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:20.240 what absolutely baffles me. The plan is to launch rams's 363 00:17:20.279 --> 00:17:24.240 in twenty twenty eight, to arrive before April twenty twenty nine. 364 00:17:24.319 --> 00:17:28.039 That's right now. Historically, deep space missions take ten to 365 00:17:28.079 --> 00:17:32.200 fifteen years of development, testing and bureaucratic maneuvering before they 366 00:17:32.200 --> 00:17:33.279 ever sit on a launch pad. 367 00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:35.240 Oh easily, sometimes longer. 368 00:17:35.319 --> 00:17:39.079 But rams's is being pushed through at a blistering page unprecedented, 369 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:41.359 and the way they're achieving this speed is through a 370 00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:45.640 newly solidified, deeply integrated alliance between the European Space Agency 371 00:17:45.920 --> 00:17:50.000 ESA and the japan Airspace Exploration Agency JXA. 372 00:17:50.559 --> 00:17:54.440 The geopolitical and administrative achievements of rams's are honestly almost 373 00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:57.720 as impressive as the flight dynamics. Also well, you cannot 374 00:17:57.799 --> 00:18:00.160 spin up a bespoke deep space mission in twenty twenty 375 00:18:00.200 --> 00:18:02.079 four to thirty six months if you start from scratch. 376 00:18:02.440 --> 00:18:05.920 The traditional procurement and supply chain bottlenecks would make it impossible. 377 00:18:06.000 --> 00:18:07.400 It just takes too long to order the parts. 378 00:18:07.599 --> 00:18:10.319 Exactly. The only way to meet the unyielding deadline of 379 00:18:10.359 --> 00:18:13.720 celestial mechanics, I mean, Apofice is arriving in twenty twenty nine, 380 00:18:13.759 --> 00:18:14.759 whether we are ready or not. 381 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:16.680 The asteroid doesn't care about our paperwork. 382 00:18:16.839 --> 00:18:18.759 It doesn't, so the only way to meet it is 383 00:18:18.799 --> 00:18:23.000 to leverage existing flight proven partnerships and distribute the engineering load. 384 00:18:23.440 --> 00:18:26.880 And the foundation of this was formalized recently. On May seventh, 385 00:18:26.960 --> 00:18:30.599 twenty twenty six, they signed a memorandum of cooperation along 386 00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:33.960 with a dedicated agreement specifically for ramseys. Yes, and they 387 00:18:34.000 --> 00:18:37.079 did this in Berlin at the Embassy of Italy, which 388 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:40.480 is an interesting geographical mix for a European Japanese agreement. 389 00:18:40.599 --> 00:18:44.759 Why there the location highlights the pan European industrial base 390 00:18:44.799 --> 00:18:49.119 that ESA relies upon. ESA selected OHB Italia as the 391 00:18:49.119 --> 00:18:53.720 prime contractor to build the rams's spacecraft oh ohb Italia 392 00:18:53.759 --> 00:18:58.240 has significant expertise in rapid satellite integration hosting. The signing 393 00:18:58.240 --> 00:19:02.039 in Berlin, in collaboration with thet Space Agency, signifies the 394 00:19:02.119 --> 00:19:05.519 deep multinational industrial cooperation within Europe. 395 00:19:05.519 --> 00:19:06.960 It's a team effort, very much. 396 00:19:06.799 --> 00:19:09.960 So, and that European team is now locking together with 397 00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:13.480 Japan's state of the art aerospace sector. It was signed 398 00:19:13.480 --> 00:19:18.920 by ESA Director General Joseph Ashbacher and JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa, 399 00:19:19.079 --> 00:19:21.680 surrounded by the industrial leadership that will actually weld the 400 00:19:21.720 --> 00:19:22.960 metal and write the code. 401 00:19:23.119 --> 00:19:25.960