Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host,
Corey Evans. This week's show is titled by the Injury
Dip and it's either a yes or no.
Speaker 2: It's cutting dry.
Speaker 1: I have five players who either from last season, early,
mid or late or during the off season underwent surgery,
had some sort of big injury that now their cost
is appreciated a bit, or it's at a discount compared
to where it should be, or whether ceiling has been
in the past.
Speaker 2: So with that in mind, we'll get right to it.
Speaker 1: Quick side note, if you want a one to one roster call,
hit me up, send me a DM on any social
media platform that I'm on, dinastyu pod, or even an
email Todynasty podt gmail dot com for one on one
discussions about your team or teams thirty dollars thirty minutes
or fifty dollars.
Speaker 2: For one hour. Hit me up if interested.
Speaker 1: The first player should we buy The Injury Dip its
Melik Neighbors.
Speaker 2: It has not been sunshine and rainbows.
Speaker 1: It has been a very discouraging series of developments for
his outlook in twenty twenty six. Neighbors is twenty two
point nine years old. We cannot forget tour both his
acl and meniscus. In week four of twenty twenty five,
he underwent a second cleanup procedure earliest offseason, which was
recent news, and that's where there's now more red flags
than might have met the eye. There is an uncertain
timeline to return, and week one sounds quote a little
ambitious per Adam Schefter, and Schefter's about as plugged in
as it gets. So we're at a crossroads with Elik
Neighbors and Dynasty because if you're a good tender, you
rely on the services. If you're rebuilding or somewhere between,
then you can wait it out a bit. And even
if he's not back for week one, he's a puplish candidate,
whatever it may be. Then whenever Melak Neighbors is returned
to old former near at one hundred, you'll reap the rewards.
Let's look gough at the stats situation. Twenty twenty four.
Neighbors burst onto the scene as a rookie with a
one oh nine twelve oh four seven receiving effort one
hundred and seventy targets as the PPR wide out six.
It was an immediate superstar campaign, and that's what we
assume Neighbors would be a cornerstone building block in dynasty formats.
Jump ahead to a sophomore season in twenty twenty five.
Neighbors eighteen two seventy one, two touchdowns, thirty five targets
in only four games played. Because of the aforementioned twenty
cl meniscus tear, the Giants didn't do a ton in
terms of adding receiving weapons outside of Isaiah Likely as
a free agent and Malachi Fields, it's still Neighbors as
the alpha in the wide rehiever room. The issue or
dilemma is when will emliite Neighbors return. Will it be
early to mid point of twenty twenty six, will he
miss no time? That is the unknown and that is
the reason why he is either the buy the injury
dip or not. I am looking to do so. But again,
what it takes to acquire Neighbors is a first round
pick we'll assume across the board and start up value.
Speaker 2: So that is the opportunity cost.
Speaker 1: Are you willing to take that gamble of spending a
premium or do you want to wait and see if
Neighbors ends up on the pump, and then you could
buy the injury dip because right now it's too early
in the offseason still where training camp preseasons around the corner.
We know that Malik will not be rushed back. I
am buying talent now. I will say that the reports
that I've read, some people say his leg, his knee
could be cooked in terms of this is a very
devastating multi ligament tear, that he might never be the
same explosive self, and that is terrifying to hear. And
I'm not medical experts on that side of the industry,
so I can't attest to it. But I will say
that as long as neighbors return to twenty twenty six,
then I think he's worth the upside and calculator risk here.
Up next is Bucky Irving. He's twenty three point eight
years old. Is he worth buying the injury dip? The
short answer for me is no. I think there's more
uncertainties than assurances with Bucky's outlook. Irving is recovering from
offseason shoulder surgery. Head coach Todd Bowles said that Bucky
should be back in the summer or fall, which is
a very vague timeline summer basically now fall closer to
week one. That is certainly raising an eyebrow and brings
some more into suspicions about when Bucky mayby not return.
It is suggested that Irving should be ready and back
for training camp, but at this point that seems like
a big if based on the summer or fall quote
from the Buccaneers head coach. There's even the rumors of
retirement due to the mental health part of dealing with
injuries last season that surface, which is a factor. I
don't really think that we consider that often. This is yes,
of course, being paid millions of pen millions of dollars.
This is their profession, this is their job right and
we take it for granted that we're playing this game
in fants football. But the player, human opponent is that
they're dealing with these big injuries and it.
Speaker 2: Takes a toll mentally. Think about us in everyday jobs.
Speaker 1: If you're sick, if you're just not feeling like going
to work, there is the part of it. I don't
want to do this, And I wonder if that's where
Bucky was at based on the rumors, or if he's
also now dealing with this offseason shoulder surgery and facing
up pill bad again. Of course, that was not confirmed,
but there was plenty of information available online suggesting that
Bucky was gonna step us out in football. And that's
why I'm so nervous about buying the injury dip. The
opposite side of that is what Bucky did is a
rookie in twenty twenty four, the PPR RB thirteen and
seventeen eighth is played, But then we'll look at twenty
twenty five, PPRRB thirty four and ten years played.
Speaker 2: With those foot and.
Speaker 1: Shoulder injuries, his yards per carry rookie to sophomore year
dipped from five point four to three point four yards
rushing eleven twenty two to five eighty eight slice it
in half essentially, and then receptions from forty seven to thirty.
Speaker 2: So there was major aggression.
Speaker 1: Granted it was attributed to the durability a lack thereof
of the injuries, both foot and shoulder. So where are
we at with Bucky year three? I am willing to
buy the injury dip, but it's nowhere near an RB
one or high end RB two cost. I'm buying more
at the RB thirty four finish for twenty twenty five,
so late first, whether that's twenty six to twenty seven
draft capital or a running back, wide receiver, tight end
in that value range. I am not spending an early
to mid first or top tier player to trade for Bucky.
Speaker 2: That is not in the cards for me based on
his durability.
Speaker 1: That has been a struggle, let alone those previous retirement
rumors that he's had to deal with on the mental
side of recovery as a pro. So far we all
know went healthy, went active. Bucky is an RB one
RB two fringe player for us in the fantasy game.
That being said, we can't even project his role without
factoring in Kenneth Gainwell and what game Well did for
Pittsburgh was remarkable and it was a thorn in the
side of Jalen Warren last season. The same will apply,
you think in theory to Bucky Irving. So yes, I
am buying the injury dip on Buckie, but it's not
at what his rookie price tag was. It has to
be at the sophomore level with the assumption that he's
going to miss time ued injury, suffer some sort of setback,
and or lose work it's kind of game one on
some capacity UPNECKX is Quinn Shawn Judkins twenty two point
six years old. He had surgery from a fractured fibula
and broken ankle in week sixteen to twenty twenty five.
It was one of those you look at it's gruesome,
it's nasty. Fortunately though Judkins so far Eleana Camp looks
good sprit because former so as a rookie in twenty
twenty five a two thirty eight twenty seven seven rushing
effort three point six yards per rush, not all that
effective per touch, but the volume was king and then
twenty six for one to seventy one is a receiver
that was thirty six targets. As the PPRRB twenty six
in fifteen is played, we have a new scheme with
that coach Todd Makin, who in years pass with Baltimore
for example, is a huge proponent of running the football.
Juckkins has limited competition, primarily Dylan Sampson, who is an
opposite skill set Juckkins more early down grinder, Sampson more
satellite and quick lightning approach as a passing outlet. So
they compliment each other well in terms of buy the
injury dip. I think we're run out of time for
Judkins in terms of a discount, because everything I've seen
online looks favorable.
Speaker 2: He looks like his old self.
Speaker 1: However, the Browns are a mess in terms of depth
chart and what the quarterback groom looks like.
Speaker 2: So there is.
Speaker 1: Still the gamescript theory of Juckkins is going to be
first second down, loose snaps because of negative gamescript of Samson,
things of that nature. So sure, if you can buy
at the PPRRB twenty six finish as a rookie or
in other words, in RB two, that by all means
I will do so if someone in your league does
not want to take him out of that cost. However,
if someone in your league is valuing Jukins is an
RB one, then I'm out because at that point you're
buying a ceiling, not even floor, because the odds that
Quinchewan finishes a top ten to twelve running back, depending
if you're in a ten or twelve team league to
reflect an RB one seems a bit far fetched, not
out of the question, especially if the volume is there touchdowns, increase, efficency,
et cetera. But I'm more in the camp of junkins
as an RB two or a high end RB three
who is a plug and play flex supposed to a
set of forget at RB one, but you still have
that narrative of Hey, fracture, fibula, broken ankle, It's a
devastating injury. He might not be his explosive burst self
that we saw as a rookie. And match your window
to buy top a quick breakway back with two more
buy the injury dep players or if you should, should not?
Speaker 2: If you buy or sell, don't forget.
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Be right back after that shortbreak, let's discuss Tucker Kraft
by the injury DIP. I think that he fits the
bill really well, twenty five point six years old towards
ACL meek nine at twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Head coach of the Packers, Matt Lafleur is.
Speaker 1: Hopeful that crafting ready for training camp, but it's not
a guarantee, and that's the opportunity to strike, especially with
so many moving pieces in this Packer's offense has been
the recent news of the Josh Jacobs arrest. We'll make
that independent of Crafts valuation. We'll look more so at
the pass catchers with Watson read Golden no more Wis.
He's now in Philadelphia, so it's a competitive space. Even
Musgrave at tight end compete with Craft. But make no
mistake that Tucker Craft was ascending from his rookie sophomore
to even thirty year pro last year before our eyes.
As a rookie in twenty twenty three, he was a
PPR tight end twenty nine. As a sophomore in twenty
twenty four, the PPR tight end ten, so a tight
end one and fantasy, and he was on pace to
match or surpass that finish in year three of twenty
twenty five, but he was a PPR tight end twenty
four in a mere eighteenth play because of the torny
ACL week nine, so the receiving loss per season. To
showcase what Craft can do, Tidy Jordan Love and Lafour
was thirty one three fifty five two scores year one,
fifty seven oh seven seven scores year two and thirty
two forty nine six scorers year three with target to
forty seventy of forty four. Craft is a do it
all tight end, could play in line, stretch it out wide,
be a mismatched the slot. His field stretching ability and
yard at their contact skills are up there with among
the best of all tight ends in football. So sure
by the injury dip if you can, if you're not
going to break the bank on a tight end, that
being brock Boers at this point, Colson Lovelin, Tyler Warren,
these new fresh names that have blossomed into elite commodities,
then arguably Tuknercraft is one of the next best, and
he has age on his side. Sure, the Tonya cl
is not a deal, but most reports have been promising
they'd be back by training camp at worst pushing closer
to the fall, and if you can use that as
an advantage and flip, for example, an older tight end
like George Kitto for Tucker Craft, that makes a lot
of sense to buy back those years and have more
long term shelf life to work with. And last, but
not least, do we buy the injury dip of Sam Laporta.
Speaker 2: For me, it's an easys.
Speaker 1: He's possibly the easiests in this episode twenty five point
four years old. It's easy to forget that Laporta missed
the final eight weeks of twenty twenty five due to
a back injury that did require surgery. It sounds like,
according to head coach Dan Campbell, that Laporta is being
eased back in and it won't be a full go
right away. Makes sense, right, bring him back slowly, make
sure he's up to full health. There's a new OC
in town for Detroit. It is formerly of the Arizona Cardinals,
Drew Petsing, who does like to utilized tight ends.
Speaker 2: Case of point Trey McBride.
Speaker 1: Laporta three years of sample size in terms of data,
he was the PPR tight end one overall as a
rookie in twenty twenty three, the PPR tight end eight
in twenty twenty four, So at top eight tight end
back to back years year three and only nine games
played the PPR tighten twenty seven. It was injury related,
So why are we discounting or ignoring Sambalporter even compared
to tucker Craft. For that matter, Laporta was right up
there with at the time Kyle Pitts in terms of
being viewed as the Titan one in Dynasty. Back in
twenty twenty three or twenty twenty four. The receiving locks
per year or production support that eighty six eighty nine
and ten touchdowns, sixty seven twenty six and seven touchdowns,
and then forty forty nine and three touchdowns target totals
are one, twenty eighty three and forty nine. Straight up,
I probably would pay less and be okay with rostering
sample Port over paying more in rostering tucker Craft. So
at least you have two options from this episode of
buying the injury dip at tight end. Now, Laporta does
have more target competition, if you will, with Amiras Saint
Brown of Isaac Tesla Jamison Williams. Of course, sdhmir Gibbs.
We'll see what Isaba Checko does in terms of protected volume.
So the Porter is not guaranteed one hundred and twenty
targets as he did year one as a pro again,
but anywhere from eighty targets two hundred and twenty comfortably
puts him in position to perform as a top five
to twelve tight end fantasy. And if you can pay
a discount of price right now because of that alien
back injury that required surgery and the Porta being some
of an afterthought as a borderline league tight end dynasty,
then by all means do so.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: Hope you all enjoyed my buy the Injury dip episode.
Of course, all players at a cost are worth acquiring,
but in a general sense, I view Neighbors as a buye.
Bucky Irvings not as interested, Quinshaw Junkins not as interested
unless it's at an RB two price tag, Tucker Craft
as a buy, and Samuel Porta as a buy. Thanks again,
until next time, This is the Dynastaur checking out. Hope
you enjoyed the week and I'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 2: See you, man,